Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Still question the inevitability of the Sino-Russian conflict
> during this turning.

> This bit about Kunduz is actually really interesting for me. When
> I was in Afghanistan (Jan-Jun 2009) almost every time I left the
> wire it was to drive from Mazar-e-Sharif to Kunduz for something
> or other. Since when I was there it was fairly quiet (and when the
> local Pashtun militants did do something it was almost invariably
> directed at the Germans and/or the local government), it's weird
> to see a place I spent that much time in in the headlines.

> On a small note, which you partially covered earlier (but
> partially not), there was almost never a large American military
> presence there. The Germans had a large base outside of town, with
> a smaller DEA one nearby (the DEA compound had a really nice chow
> hall). The German base had a small contingent of National Guard
> soldiers (Illinois, when I was there) on an annex of it. That was
> about it.

> The nearest base that I was aware of after that was the Hungarian
> PRT in Pol-e-Khomri, and that was a long drive to the south. It
> was not really a very active area, just a weird little Pashtun
> pocket in a sea of Dari-speaking Tajiks and other members of the
> Northern Alliance.

I didn't realize (or maybe I'd forgotten) that you had served in
Afghanistan. We're all indebted to you for your service. You must
have some thoughts about what's going on in Afghanistan these days.

*** 30-Sep-15 World View -- Copper's crashing prices cause devastating economic ripples around the world

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New York's Obamacare Co-op collapses, the fourth so far this year
• Copper's crashing prices cause devastating economic ripples around the world
• China's 'climate change' promise may already be in trouble

****
**** New York's Obamacare Co-op collapses, the fourth so far this year
****


President Obama

One of the hare-brained schemes in the Obamacare design was the
establishment of a network of nonprofit insurance companies to compete
with the established insurance companies, who were repeatedly painted
as evil villains during the Obamacare discussions. The non-profit
insurance companies are called "Consumer Oriented and Operated Plans,"
usually abbreviated to "Obamacare co-ops."

There were co-ops established in 23 states, and all but one lost money
in 2014, and Iowa's co-op, CoOportunity Health, failed spectacularly
in December, 2014.

Four more co-ops have collapsed in 2015, and on Tuesday, New York
regulators announced the collapse of the biggest Obamacare co-op in
the nation, Health Republic Insurance of New York.

Furthermore, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) have
admitted for the first time that there will be additional failures
this year. Probably someone is going to get fired for making that
admission.

At times like this, I like to recall that when Jonathan Gruber said
that passage of Obamacare depended on the stupidity of the American
people, he was referring to Obamacare supporters, not to people like
me.

The reason the co-ops were failing because they all did the same
things: Since they're funded by Obamacare, they don't have to make a
profit, so they gained market share by pricing premiums far below
market rates. During 2014, the co-ops paid out $1.16 in insurance
reimbursements for every $1.00 they collected in premiums. They could
get away with this because they're government agencies and don't care
who gets screwed.

The New York co-op has been even worse, paying out $1.40 in benefits
for every $1 it got in premiums. They charged money-losing premiums
to gain market share, but the more customers they had, the more money
they lost.

I described all this last month in my article, "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history".

In that article, which I posted after months of investigation, showed
that the Obama administration threw away hundreds of billions of
Medicare fund dollars into Obamacare exchanges, Obamacare co-ops,
Obamacare risk corridors, and Obamacare web sites, all of which are
drowning in red ink. The investigation revealed lying at all levels,
including criminal fraud -- which will never be prosecuted because
criminal acts in Obamacare are immune from prosecution.

The collapse of the New York Obamacare co-op is a sign of things to
come. The $710 billion Medicare fund that Obamacare confiscated has
almost completely been used up, and so we can expect to see a lot more
Obamacare collapses in the next few months. Bloomberg and Daily Caller and NY State Dept. of Financial Services

****
**** Copper's crashing prices cause devastating economic ripples around the world
****

Copper prices fell to $4920 per tonne on Monday, before recovering
slightly. The price has been crashing, and is down 21% so far in
2015, after falling 16% in 2014. The current price is at a six-year
low, just above the low of the financial crisis six years ago. The
crash is expected to continue, with predicted prices at $4800 at the
end of this year, and $4500 at the end of next year.

Just as the 60% collapse in the price of oil has been disastrous for
exporting countries around the world, including Russia, Iran, Saudi
Arabia and Venezuela, the collapse in the price of copper is rippling
throughout the world.

The copper crash is being mostly blamed on the slowdown in China's
economy, which is also causing drops in prices of coal, oil and
metals.

The copper crash is causing crashes in the prices of stocks for mining
companies. Miners are some of the largest companies in the world,
responsible for hundreds of thousands of jobs in many countries. The
world's largest miner is Melbourne-based BHP Billiton, whose stock
price has fallen 29% in the last three months. The second-largest
miner, also Melbourne-based, is Rio Tinto, which is less dependent on
copper, has limited it's stock declines this year to 30%.

However, stock prices for Swiss-based Glencore Plc, the world's
third-largest copper miner, fell 30% on Monday ALONE.

The result is a disaster for the African country Zambia, whose economy
is heavily dependent on the price of copper. Glencore has announced
plans to suspend operations in the country, which will result in the
loss of thousands of jobs. Zambia's currency, the kwacha, fell 13%
against the dollar on Monday alone. Glencore is also suspending
operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Stock prices for another copper mining company, Phoenix AZ based
Freeport-McMoRan Inc., fell over 10% on Monday, with the stock price
now down 61% since the beginning of the year. Freeport announced
earlier this month that it's cutting in half its operations in Chile,
and will be laying off hundreds of workers.

As I've been saying for many years, the world is in a deflationary
spiral in this generational Crisis era. Deflation has gripped
economies in Europe, America, China
and Japan.

The deflationary spiral is affecting global stock prices, which fell
to a two-year low on Tuesday, at the end of the worst quarter in
years. Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a global
financial crisis and stock market crash, bringing the Dow Jones
Industrial Average below 3000. Mining.com and Economist and BBC and Reuters

****
**** China's 'climate change' promise may already be in trouble
****

Climate change activists are ecstatic over a promise by China to
implement a "cap and trade" system in 2017 to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. The way it works is to create a new class of synthetic
securities backed by "carbon credits." Each company receives a supply
of these securities, and they can be bought and sold. Buying the
securities gives a company the right to pollute more, and selling the
securities obligates the company to pollute less.

As I wrote in 2007 in "UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce,"
"cap
and trade" is a financial scam, and the securities are nearly
worthless, in the same way that near-worthless securities were created
from subprime mortgages. European nations implemented a cap-and-trade
system that not only did not reduce carbon emissions, but probably
increased them.

The recently exposed debacle with Volkswagen shows what can happen.
VW implemented software in its cars to cheat on emissions tests, and
implemented it in millions of cars in Europe. These cars are spewing
huge amounts of emissions into the air, but thanks to the cheating
software, official figures show much lower emissions. Now that the
scam has been revealed it will be necessary to compute new figures,
and news stories indicate that the new figures will be much higher
than the old ones. So much for reduced emissions in Europe.

This brings us back to China. If the Europeans, with a supposedly
open economy, can so easily cheat on emissions measurements, then it
will be enormously easy for China to cheat. China can claim any
emissions figures it wants, and nobody will even know, just as China
lies about its military budget and other economic figures.

China has committed to reach its carbon emissions targets by 2030, but
what's really laughable is that China has not indicated what those
targets are. So China is in a position to make up both emission
statistics and emission targets as it goes along.

But already analysts are saying that China is going to have to back
off from its promises, because the economy is slowing. According to
an analyst:

<QUOTE>"With slowing energy demand in a slowing economy, the
last thing these companies want is an extra cost associated with a
carbon emissions commitment. They’ve got enough to worry about
already. The launch of a nationwide [cap-and-trade] market at a
time when they are having a difficult time to survive has the risk
of not having enthusiastic participants at first."<END QUOTE>

In the meantime, with China opening new coal mines every week, does
anyone seriously believe that any emissions will actually be reduced?
Brookings and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Obamacare, Co-ops, Jonathan Gruber,
Health Republic Insurance of New York,
copper, oil, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Chile,
China, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Zambia,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Freeport-McMoRan,
climate change, cap and trade, Volkswagen

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I didn't realize (or maybe I'd forgotten) that you had served in
Afghanistan. We're all indebted to you for your service. You must
have some thoughts about what's going on in Afghanistan these days.

Not at all. I did little and was rewarded richly for it. Thank YOU for paying taxes.

As for my not-particularly profound insight, the Taliban are not that different from ISIS. I'm not going to deny the ideological/religious aspects of it, but they're ethnic blocs motivated by insecurity and corrupt governance more than anything else. Sunni Arabs in the case of ISIS, and Pashtuns in the case of the Taliban. It's why you're seeing Taliban forces pouring into Kunduz now (the lone Pashtun pocket of any significance in the north of the country), while the equivalent occurring in Balkh province or Pamir province is unlikely. The scandals with the boy-rape thing is an excellent example of why the Taliban are resurging as the Americans fade (corruption) and the GIRoA's leadership is split between Abdullah and Ghani (ethnic conflicts).

The country will continue to be an oozing sore. Which is too bad, because they're nice people, some of the women are really pretty, and the country itself is quite lovely. If you're in the NE, go to any fried chicken joint and I'll bet the owners/operators are Afghans.

*** 1-Oct-15 World View -- Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud
• Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud
****


Palestinians in Ramallah, West Bank, watch Abbas's UN speech on Wednesday (AP)

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas gave his United Nations
speech on Wednesday, and delivered the "bombshell" that he had
promised. ( "28-Sep-15 World View -- Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN"
)

Abbas stated that Israel has repeatedly failed to implement the
agreements of the 1993 Oslo peace agreement between Israel and the
Palestinians, and he listed various alleged infringements.
He made a demand of Israel:

<QUOTE>"I call on the Israeli Government, before it is too
late, to cease its use of brutal force to impose its plans to
undermine the Islamic and Christian sanctities in Jerusalem,
particularly its actions at Al-Aqsa Mosque, for such actions will
convert the conflict from a political to religious one, creating
an explosive in Jerusalem and in the rest of the Occupied
Palestinian Territory."<END QUOTE>

He then delivered his ultimatum:

<QUOTE>"Thus, we declare that as long as Israel refuses to
commit to the agreements signed with us, which render us an
authority without real powers, and as long as Israel refuses to
cease settlement activities and to release of the fourth group of
Palestinian prisoners in accordance with our agreements, they
leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only
ones committed to the implementation of these agreements, while
Israel continuously violates them. We therefore declare that we
cannot continue to be bound by these agreements and that Israel
must assume all of its responsibilities as an occupying Power,
because the status quo cannot continue and the decisions of the
Palestinian Central Council last March are specific and
binding."<END QUOTE>

Abbas's threat, if implemented, would be a major blow to Israel,
because Israel would be required to police and provide security
for the entire West Bank, taking responsibility for chores that
the Palestinians themselves current handle. There would be
constant demonstrations across the West Bank targeting Israeli
security forces, and these would certainly get out of hand
from time to time, and result in gunfire. This could spiral
into a much larger conflict.

However, Abbas did not provide a timeline, specifics or an action
plan. Also, he didn't resign, as some speculated he might.

Mahmoud Abbas is a man who fits his generational template to a T. He
was a survivor of the bloody genocidal 1948 crisis war that followed
the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of Israel. Millions of
people died, suffered, or were driven from their homes. Any
generation that grows up through a generational crisis war suffers a
kind of generational child abuse, and the entire generation become
negotiators and mediators, in order to prevent a repeat of the crisis
war.

Abbas was born in 1935 and is now 80 years old, so he may resign soon
anyway. The most likely replacement, according to polls, is Hamas
political leader Ismail Haniyeh, a Gen-Xer born in 1963. It's pretty
certain that if Haniyeh or any younger Palestinian leader gave Israel
an ultimatum at the United Nations, then it would be backed by threats
that could lead quickly to war. WAFA (Palestine News & Information Agency) and ABC News

****
**** Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria
****

Russia's warplanes began striking targets in Syria on Wednesday,
and it was done in a way that can only be described as intentionally
inflicting as much humiliation on the Obama administration
as possible.

A Russian 3-star general knocked on the door of the American embassy
in Baghdad on Wednesday morning and asked to speak to a military
attaché. He informed the attaché that Russia would begin bombing in
Syria in one hour, and he demanded that the US-led coalition stop its
airstrikes, and that the targets would be from the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Russia's warplanes started bombing an hour later, but they were
centered around the city of Homs where is no ISIS activity, but which
is under the control of the Free Syrian Army. The FSA is the moderate
opposition to Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, and some of
them have been trained and supplied by the US. Some reports indicate
that Russian warplanes also targeted civilians. And so, in a sense,
Russia's warplanes are striking US-allied targets.

Secretary of State John Kerry swung into action immediately and made
one of his typical SNL-worthy hard-hitting statements:

<QUOTE>"If Russia’s recent actions, and those now ongoing,
reflect a genuine commitment to defeat that organization, then we
are prepared to welcome those efforts and to find a way to
deconflict our operations and thereby multiply the military
pressure on ISIL and affiliated groups.<END QUOTE>

However, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter made a statement
that actually made sense:

<QUOTE>"Last week I observed from this podium, as I had
observed privately to Russian defense minister [Sergei] Shoigu the
week prior that there is a logical contradiction in the Russian
position and now its actions in Syria. Russia states an intent
to fight ISIL on the one hand, and to support Bashar al-Assad and
his regime on the other. Fighting ISIL without pursuing a
parallel political transition only risks escalation in Syria. 2:08
And with it, the very extremism and instability that Moscow claims
to be concerned about, and aspire to fighting. So that approach
is tantamount, as I said then, to pouring gasoline on the
fire."<END QUOTE>

I certainly agree with this. Russia's actions are insane.

ISIS came into existence when thousands of Sunni jihadists from
countries around the world traveled to Syria to fight against
Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, who was massacring tens of thousands of
innocent Sunni women and children with heavy weapons and Sarin gas,
and with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine
gas.

And now, Russia is going to send Orthodox Christian troops and
warplanes to continue bombing innocent Sunni women and children. This
is crazy. As Carter said, it's like pouring gasoline on the fire.

I wrote in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast,"
that Russia's military deployment would trigger
nationalistic and belligerent responses from Saudi Arabia and other
Gulf nations, from terrorists in al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front) and ISIS, and from the Recep Tayyip Erdogan
government of Turkey.

Wednesday's events significantly exacerbate those trends. It's one
more major policy debacle for the Obama administration, and a big new
humiliation for the United States. Even worse, it's clear that Russia
isn't even targeting terrorists, but is targeting innocent Sunni women
and children. This is what caused ISIS to come into existence in the
first place, and now ISIS is going to grow even faster. Daily Beast and AP and Russia Direct

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Hamas,
West Bank, Oslo peace accords, Ismail Haniyeh,
Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, John Kerry, Ash Carter,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 1-Oct-15 World View -- Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud
• Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud
****


Palestinians in Ramallah, West Bank, watch Abbas's UN speech on Wednesday (AP)

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas gave his United Nations
speech on Wednesday, and delivered the "bombshell" that he had
promised. ( "28-Sep-15 World View -- Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN"
)

Abbas stated that Israel has repeatedly failed to implement the
agreements of the 1993 Oslo peace agreement between Israel and the
Palestinians, and he listed various alleged infringements.
He made a demand of Israel:

<QUOTE>"I call on the Israeli Government, before it is too
late, to cease its use of brutal force to impose its plans to
undermine the Islamic and Christian sanctities in Jerusalem,
particularly its actions at Al-Aqsa Mosque, for such actions will
convert the conflict from a political to religious one, creating
an explosive in Jerusalem and in the rest of the Occupied
Palestinian Territory."<END QUOTE>

He then delivered his ultimatum:

<QUOTE>"Thus, we declare that as long as Israel refuses to
commit to the agreements signed with us, which render us an
authority without real powers, and as long as Israel refuses to
cease settlement activities and to release of the fourth group of
Palestinian prisoners in accordance with our agreements, they
leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only
ones committed to the implementation of these agreements, while
Israel continuously violates them. We therefore declare that we
cannot continue to be bound by these agreements and that Israel
must assume all of its responsibilities as an occupying Power,
because the status quo cannot continue and the decisions of the
Palestinian Central Council last March are specific and
binding."<END QUOTE>

Abbas's threat, if implemented, would be a major blow to Israel,
because Israel would be required to police and provide security
for the entire West Bank, taking responsibility for chores that
the Palestinians themselves current handle. There would be
constant demonstrations across the West Bank targeting Israeli
security forces, and these would certainly get out of hand
from time to time, and result in gunfire. This could spiral
into a much larger conflict.

However, Abbas did not provide a timeline, specifics or an action
plan. Also, he didn't resign, as some speculated he might.

Mahmoud Abbas is a man who fits his generational template to a T. He
was a survivor of the bloody genocidal 1948 crisis war that followed
the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of Israel. Millions of
people died, suffered, or were driven from their homes. Any
generation that grows up through a generational crisis war suffers a
kind of generational child abuse, and the entire generation become
negotiators and mediators, in order to prevent a repeat of the crisis
war.

Abbas was born in 1935 and is now 80 years old, so he may resign soon
anyway. The most likely replacement, according to polls, is Hamas
political leader Ismail Haniyeh, a Gen-Xer born in 1963. It's pretty
certain that if Haniyeh or any younger Palestinian leader gave Israel
an ultimatum at the United Nations, then it would be backed by threats
that could lead quickly to war. WAFA (Palestine News & Information Agency) and ABC News

****
**** Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria
****

Russia's warplanes began striking targets in Syria on Wednesday,
and it was done in a way that can only be described as intentionally
inflicting as much humiliation on the Obama administration
as possible.

A Russian 3-star general knocked on the door of the American embassy
in Baghdad on Wednesday morning and asked to speak to a military
attaché. He informed the attaché that Russia would begin bombing in
Syria in one hour, and he demanded that the US-led coalition stop its
airstrikes, and that the targets would be from the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Russia's warplanes started bombing an hour later, but they were
centered around the city of Homs where is no ISIS activity, but which
is under the control of the Free Syrian Army. The FSA is the moderate
opposition to Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, and some of
them have been trained and supplied by the US. Some reports indicate
that Russian warplanes also targeted civilians. And so, in a sense,
Russia's warplanes are striking US-allied targets.

Secretary of State John Kerry swung into action immediately and made
one of his typical SNL-worthy hard-hitting statements:

<QUOTE>"If Russia’s recent actions, and those now ongoing,
reflect a genuine commitment to defeat that organization, then we
are prepared to welcome those efforts and to find a way to
deconflict our operations and thereby multiply the military
pressure on ISIL and affiliated groups.<END QUOTE>

However, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter made a statement
that actually made sense:

<QUOTE>"Last week I observed from this podium, as I had
observed privately to Russian defense minister [Sergei] Shoigu the
week prior that there is a logical contradiction in the Russian
position and now its actions in Syria. Russia states an intent
to fight ISIL on the one hand, and to support Bashar al-Assad and
his regime on the other. Fighting ISIL without pursuing a
parallel political transition only risks escalation in Syria. 2:08
And with it, the very extremism and instability that Moscow claims
to be concerned about, and aspire to fighting. So that approach
is tantamount, as I said then, to pouring gasoline on the
fire."<END QUOTE>

I certainly agree with this. Russia's actions are insane.

ISIS came into existence when thousands of Sunni jihadists from
countries around the world traveled to Syria to fight against
Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, who was massacring tens of thousands of
innocent Sunni women and children with heavy weapons and Sarin gas,
and with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine
gas.

And now, Russia is going to send Orthodox Christian troops and
warplanes to continue bombing innocent Sunni women and children. This
is crazy. As Carter said, it's like pouring gasoline on the fire.

I wrote in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast,"
that Russia's military deployment would trigger
nationalistic and belligerent responses from Saudi Arabia and other
Gulf nations, from terrorists in al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front) and ISIS, and from the Recep Tayyip Erdogan
government of Turkey.

Wednesday's events significantly exacerbate those trends. It's one
more major policy debacle for the Obama administration, and a big new
humiliation for the United States. Even worse, it's clear that Russia
isn't even targeting terrorists, but is targeting innocent Sunni women
and children. This is what caused ISIS to come into existence in the
first place, and now ISIS is going to grow even faster. Daily Beast and AP and Russia Direct

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Hamas,
West Bank, Oslo peace accords, Ismail Haniyeh,
Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, John Kerry, Ash Carter,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

This is bigger than Obama / the US. Russia are purposely antagonizing NATO as well as the de facto anti-Hamas / anti-Brotherhood allies (Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Saudi). The question is, why? Why would Moscow want to get NATO and the allies to up their game? Maybe it is so that after they up their game, they can cast aspersions and label us war mongers. A discrediting operation. Typically, this is something an Axis does in the build up to World War. Hitler did the same, casting aspersions on the US and UK, etc.

*** 2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war
• Central African Republic canceling elections and possibly Pope's visit

****
**** Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war
****


UN peacekeepers on patrol in Bangui in December 2014 (AFP)

Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic (CAR), is
experiencing its worst violence in almost two years. The violence was
triggered on Saturday when the body of a Muslim motorbike taxi driver
was found outside a mosque in a majority Muslim neighborhood. Dozens
were killed in clashes between Muslim ex-Seleka militias fighting
Christian anti-Balaka militias. An estimated 40,000 people were
forced to flee their homes.

On Monday, members of the Christian anti-Balaka militias attacked the
prison on Monday, freeing hundreds of soldiers and militiamen.
Buildings have been looted or destroyed, and shops and businesses were
forced to close.

United Nations peacekeepers fired warning shots in the air to disperse
thousands of Christian protesters calling for the rearming of CAR's
national army. The U.N. has yet to rearm the military after many
officers were linked to the anti-balaka Christian militia that carried
out brutal attacks against Muslims.

Bangui was calmer on Wednesday, though the local Red Cross were quoted
as saying it was still too dangerous on Bangui's streets to pick up
bodies.

According to UN spokesman Leo Hobbs:

<QUOTE>"We fear that the violence we're seeing in Bangui is a
return to the dark days of late 2013 and 2014, when thousands were
killed and tens of thousands had to flee their
homes."<END QUOTE>

CAR is a huge country, geographically, and although violence in Bangui
makes all the headlines, there is continuing violence between
Christians and Muslims across the country. A kind of chilling symbol
of the level of violence in these clashes is that, as we reported in March,
almost every one
of the 436 mosques in CAR have been destroyed.

Much of the violence outside of Bangui is simply not being documented,
according to Lewis Mudge of Human Rights Watch, when he was
interviewed on al-Jazeera (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"As bad as things are in Bangui, it pales in
comparison to what's happening in the east. Hundreds of people
are being killed if not thousands. We're only scratching the
surface in documenting that. There's a real bush war happening in
the eastern provinces. When we're traveling in the bush, we come
across villages in which civilians are being killed, homes are
being burned, and this stuff is just not being
documented."<END QUOTE>

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.

But then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum,"
and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the
Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been committing
atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational crisis war.
Thousands have been killed, and millions have been displaced.

Thousands of French and African Union peacekeeping forces have
succeeded in bringing the fighting under control in Bangui, but the
atrocities have spread north and east to villages far beyond the grasp
of the peacekeeping troops.

As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.

By bringing the violence in Bangui under control for a while, the UN
peacekeepers have removed CAR from the headlines, and given the
impression that the war was almost over. But in fact, this war is far
out of the control of the peacekeepers. As I've said repeatedly,
whether it's in the headlines or not, this is a generational crisis
war, and it will not end until it's run its course. And that will not
happen until it reaches some kind of horrific, explosive climax which,
right now, is nowhere in sight. BBC and Reuters and Bloomberg

****
**** Central African Republic canceling elections and possibly Pope's visit
****

One thing that the United Nations have been pushing for is that
Central African Republic have new national elections, in order exude a
sense of normalcy. Elections had been scheduled for October 18, but
now they're being postponed.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, elections are nice to
have, but when you have tens or hundreds of thousands of Muslims and
Christians slaughtering each other, burning down each other's homes,
raping each other's wives and decapitating them, then no one's going
to stop to vote.

CAR's Christian foreign minister Samuel Rangba gave a speech on
Wednesday to the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He
would like the UN to lift its arms embargo, so that the government can
import weapons and rearm the army and police:

<QUOTE>"You can’t support a country without the military and
public force necessary to establish the authority of the
state."<END QUOTE>

I doubt that anyone seriously believes that arming the Christian
security forces would bring the violence to an end, or would do
anything but increase the violence against Muslims.

Pope Francis is scheduled to visit Bangui soon, as well as Nairobi in
Kenya and Kampala in Uganda. However, the resurgence of violence in
CAR may force the visit to be canceled. According to Bishop Nongo
Aziagbia:

<QUOTE>"The situation in Bangui is a matter of great
concern. If stability is not re-established, that might affect a
number of things, including the papal visit. We’re praying for
reason, peace and understanding."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately, it's going to be a long time before reason, peace and
understanding prevail in Central African Republic. AP and Catholic Herald and International Crisis Group


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Lewis Mudge, Human Rights Watch,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Samuel Rangba, Pope Francis, Nongo Aziagbia

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*** 3-Oct-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia under international pressure to end Yemen airstrikes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia appears to have stalled in the Yemen war
• Saudi Arabia under international pressure to end Yemen airstrikes

****
**** Saudi Arabia appears to have stalled in the Yemen war
****


Iranian weapons seized by Saudis on way to Yemen (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia-backed forces loyal to the internationally recognized
government of president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi of Yemen are claiming a
major victory on Friday, having regained control of the strategic Bab
el-Mandeb strait that partially controls international shipping access
to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The narrow waterway, which
separates Yemen from Djibouti only some 32km away, funnels shipping to
and from the Suez Canal, which lies at the north end of the Red Sea.

The strait was recaptured from the Iran-backed Houthi militias, who
seized the capital city Sanaa in September of last year, forcing
president Hadi to flee. The Houthi militias then swept south, seizing
territory as far as the port of Aden on the southern coast. Hadi fled
first to Aden and then to Saudi Arabia last Spring, where he ran a
government in exile. Hadi was able to return to Aden last month,
after loyalist forces regained control of Aden. The forces have been
moving north and have now recaptured the port at Bab el-Mandeb, as
preparation to attempt the recapture of Taiz, Yemen's third largest
city (after Sanaa and Aden).

Although Saudi and loyalist forces are consolidating control of the
recaptured areas in the south, the frequently-promised assault to
recapture Sanaa has not yet materialized, slowed by landmines and
stiff resistance from Houthi forces in rugged mountains, giving the
impression that the Saudi effort has stalled. AFP and AP and Al Monitor

****
**** Saudi Arabia under international pressure to end Yemen airstrikes
****

Even before the war, Yemen was one of the poorest countries
in the world. When the Saudi Arabia-led coalition started
bombing Houthi targets on March 26, destroying infrastructure,
the humanitarian problems have become extremely severe.
However, the situation in Yemen has been battling for headlines
with Syria, so there's little attention being paid.

Even so, a massive explosion at a wedding party on Monday, apparently
from a Saudi coalition air strike, has substantially increased the
international pressure on Saudi Arabia to stop the air strikes. The
targeted area was adjacent to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and the death
toll from the two missiles that struck the wedding was 151,
including many women and children.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed the usual
outrage. He condemned the high death toll at the wedding event and
warned that any intentional attack on civilians violates international
law and must be investigated.

The Saudi coalition is denying any responsibility for the attack,
although the denial is not generally believed.

The Saudi coalition says that it has seized an Iranian fishing boat
carrying weapons to Houthi militias in Yemen. Iran has always denied
supplying weapons to the Houthis, although their denials have not been
generally believed. The weapons included 70 anti-tank shells, shell
battery kits, firing guidance systems, and other components to launch
TOW anti-armor missiles. Reuters and United Nations
and Arab News and Deutsche Welle


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Taiz,
Aden, Bab el-Mandeb strait, Egypt, Red Sea, Suez Canal,
Ban Ki-moon, United Nations

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Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

This is bigger than Obama / the US. Russia are purposely antagonizing NATO as well as the de facto anti-Hamas / anti-Brotherhood allies (Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Saudi). The question is, why? Why would Moscow want to get NATO and the allies to up their game? Maybe it is so that after they up their game, they can cast aspersions and label us war mongers. A discrediting operation. Typically, this is something an Axis does in the build up to World War. Hitler did the same, casting aspersions on the US and UK, etc.

The Russians know that as long as the generation of boomers are governing the US and the NATO and allied countries; the Russians would be able to get away with anything either without an allied response or would only face an incompetent allied response. While most boomers care only about their money, Xers and millies recognize this geopolitical weakness. That is why Donald Trump is so popular, he is different from your typical mainstream boomer because he recognizes the political class' desire for America to be "humane" at all times to be our main weakness.

*** 4-Oct-15 World View -- Greece's Alexis Tsipras says that Greece must implement harsh reforms

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's Alexis Tsipras says that Greece must implement harsh reforms
• Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party shows remarkable resilience

****
**** Greece's Alexis Tsipras says that Greece must implement harsh reforms
****


Alexis Tsipras on Saturday

Greece's far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras continued with his
mind-bending U-turn on Saturday by saying in a speech to the
parliament that Greece must implement the harsh austerity measures
demanded by the Europeans for a new bailout, and must implement them
as quickly as possible. He said:

<QUOTE>"Implementing the bailout is not going to be easy. But
we are obliged to make these decisions although we don't like
them. It's necessary, in order to exit this system of
surveillance and immediately start the discussion on the debt
issue.

Our main target is to exit this system of supervision, and regain
market access. But a necessary condition for that is to return to
growth."<END QUOTE>

Tsipras was elected early this year by promising that there would be
no more austerity measures. After being elected, he repeatedly lied
and promised reforms with no intention of implementing. Infuriated
lending institutions gave him an ultimatum. He called for a
referendum in July, in which the voters told him to have no more
austerity measures. The lending institutions renewed the ultimatum,
and because of all the lying, demanded to put Greece's budget
process under outside supervision.

Tsipras then turned around and agreed to implement the harsh austerity
measures demanded by Greece's lenders, because European officials were
"holding a knife at my neck." The Europeans agreed to a new 86
billion euro bailout loan in return for the austerity measures, which
address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public
sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public
businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

After this breathtaking U-turn, Tsipras called for new elections,
which his far-left Syriza party won last month. As I wrote last month
after the September 20 elections, it makes you wonder whether voters
ever have any idea what they're doing.

Well, things have been fairly peaceful since July, mainly thanks to a
bridge loan that the Europeans provided, to allow the banks to reopen
and to prevent bankruptcy.

But now the bridge loan has run out, and Tsipras has to resume
negotiations, and enact a set of reforms by November 15, to receive
the next tranche in the 86 billion euro loan.

As you can tell from Tsipras's remarks quoted above, a major objective
is to "regain market access." When he means by that is that he'd like
to do as little as possible, but whatever is necessary, to be able to
return to the capital markets and start borrowing again, so that his
government can start unlimited spending again.

Tsipras promised to complete the first review of the bailout plan as
soon as possible, and open the negotiations with the lenders on debt
relief. It's been a while since we've had weekly Greek financial
crises, but those days should be returning soon. Kathimerini (Athens) and Reuters

****
**** Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party shows remarkable resilience
****

A new analysis shows that the increasing popularity of Greece's Golden
Dawn political party is related to the flood of migrants passing
through Greece.

Besides the financial crisis, Greece is in the midst of one more major
crisis. Greece is a transit country through which hundreds of
thousands of migrants pass through in order to reach Germany and other
northern European countries. Typically, human smugglers in Turkey
transport the migrants, usually from Syria or Iraq, to a Greek island
in the Aegean sea. From there, a Greek ferry transports them to the
mainland. They travel through Greece to Macedonia, and then go north.

With Greece on the front lines of the migrant crisis, it's perhaps not
surprising, that a notable outcome of Greece's September 20 elections
was that the far-right Golden Dawn party managed to score some gains
despite officially being charged as a criminal organization. (The
term "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.)

Many Greeks voted for Golden Dawn, even though Golden Dawn party
members have openly assaulted immigrants and other people that they
don't like, and called for deportation of even Greek citizens who are
not pure ethnic Greeks. The Greek public only turned against Golden
Dawn on September 18, 2013, after self-identified Golden Dawn members
murdered a white Greek civilian, Pavlos Fyssas, or Killah P, who
rapped against the kind of racism that Golden Dawn practices. That
killing shocked the Greek public, and led the government to arrest the party's leader, Nikolaos Michaloliakos,
and formally charge him with belonging to a criminal
organization. Dozens more members were arrested as well, including
four MPs (holding seats in Greece's parliament). The charges include
homicide, attempted homicide, money laundering, blackmail, grievous
bodily harm, and other serious crimes.

Since the September 20 elections, a new analysis has shown the
following:

• Support for Golden Dawn has been fairly constant during the
  past three elections, until September 20.
  
• A surge in electoral support for Golden Dawn appears to be an
  outcome of the increase refugee flows through those islands.
  
• Most remarkably, on the average, the increase in support for
  Golden Dawn in a municipality is directly correlated to the distance
  of that municipality from the coast of Turkey.

These patterns were not present in the past, but only became apparent
with the September 20 elections, after the long summer surge of
migrants. Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras,
Golden Dawn, Nikolaos Michaloliakos, Pavlos Fyssas, Killah P

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With regard to refugees: Lets compare trump with Clinton. Trump Wants to carry out mass deportations of refugees, He will work for AMERICAN interests. Clinton wants to take in tens of thousands while opening an avenue for possibly hundreds of thousands more, while advocating a global conference to set up a global distribution system for the refugees, and intervention in Syria.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> With regard to refugees: Lets compare trump with Clinton. Trump
> Wants to carry out mass deportations of refugees, He will work for
> AMERICAN interests. Clinton wants to take in tens of thousands
> while opening an avenue for possibly hundreds of thousands more,
> while advocating a global conference to set up a global
> distribution system for the refugees, and intervention in
> Syria.

Why doesn't Obama simply order that all gun sales be stopped? Why
doesn't he order that all guns be confiscated? He could do it. He's
certainly passionate about it. He whines and whines and whines about
it all the time. So why doesn't he do it?

The answer is because no one would listen to him. The bureaucrats
would stall. There would be innumerable legal challenges. Many
states would tell him to screw off. He'd look like an idiot.

The same thing would happen if Trump were president and ordered mass
deportations. It would never happen, and he'd look like an idiot.

You've hit the nail on the head why Trump would be a far worse
president than even Obama. Trump not only has stupid policies, but he
thinks that Washington is like one of his hotels, and he can just
order something done and it gets done. That's even more delusional
than Obama thinking that the earth would heal and the tides would
recede. Obama has lurched from one foreign policy disaster to another
because he has no clue what's going on in the world. It's been a
disaster for the country, and the last thing we need is another 8
years of a politician who thinks he knows more than everyone else but
really doesn't have a clue, and then goes around barking orders at
anyone who disagrees with him

Is Greece in a 4T at this time?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The answer is because no one would listen to him. The bureaucrats
would stall. There would be innumerable legal challenges. Many
states would tell him to screw off. He'd look like an idiot.

The same thing would happen if Trump were president and ordered mass
deportations. It would never happen, and he'd look like an idiot.

You've hit the nail on the head why Trump would be a far worse
president than even Obama. Trump not only has stupid policies, but he
thinks that Washington is like one of his hotels, and he can just
order something done and it gets done. That's even more delusional
than Obama thinking that the earth would heal and the tides would
recede. Obama has lurched from one foreign policy disaster to another
because he has no clue what's going on in the world. It's been a
disaster for the country, and the last thing we need is another 8
years of a politician who thinks he knows more than everyone else but
really doesn't have a clue, and then goes around barking orders at
anyone who disagrees with him

Our constitution is this country's single greatest liability these days. The constitution was created for an 18th century age when travel was by horseback and the most advanced weapons an army had was the musket and the cannon. It is completely and utterly ill-suited for a 21st century age of fast travel, internet communications, aircraft carriers, nukes and ICBMs. The populace needs the right to bring forth their agendas without their programmes being watered down by government bureaucrats.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Our constitution is this country's single greatest liability these
> days. The constitution was created for an 18th century age when
> travel was by horseback and the most advanced weapons an army had
> was the musket and the cannon. It is completely and utterly
> ill-suited for a 21st century age of fast travel, internet
> communications, aircraft carriers, nukes and ICBMs. The populace
> needs the right to bring forth their agendas without their
> programmes being watered down by government bureaucrats.

Actually, you have it backwards. The purpose of much of the process
defined by the Constitution is to prevent rash decisions, by forcing
politicians to negotiate. And that was in the days when "travel was
by horseback."

Today, we're in "a 21st century age of fast travel, internet
communications, aircraft carriers, nukes and ICBMs," where decisions
are implemented at lightning speed. In that kind of environment,
preventing rash decisions is even more important than it was in 1790,
and so the procedures should actually be strengthened, and least in
some cases.

*** 5-Oct-15 World View -- Abbas's UN speech raises concerns about a Palestinian 'third intifada'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violence in Jerusalem increases after Abbas's UN speech
• Abbas's UN speech raises concerns about a Palestinian 'third intifada'

****
**** Violence in Jerusalem increases after Abbas's UN speech
****


Palestinians set tire on fire during clashes with police in East Jerusalem on Sunday (Reuters)

For the last three weeks, there have been a series of clashes between
Israel's police and Palestinian protesters at the sensitive Temple
Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem. rioters have been
throwing rocks and petrol bombs, while barricading themselves in the
Al-Aqsa mosque, forcing Israeli police eject them. Israeli security
forces responded with tear gas and stun grenades.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared "war" on
stone-throwers, after the stone throwing caused a traffic accident
that killed a Jewish man. Netanyahu authorized increased use of live
fire.

As the clashes continued, dozens of Palestinians were wounded by live
fire and rubber bullets. Hamas responded by calling for a "day or
rage" over tensions at the site. The clashes were further provoked by
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday, when he
threatened to repudiate the 1993 Oslo peace agreement.

On Saturday (two days ago), a 19-year-old Palestinian killed two
Israelis and wounded a woman and child in a gun and knife attack. On
Sunday, a Palestinian was shot dead by police, after he stabbed and
wounded a 15-year-old.

Violence in the Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem is
extremely sensitive. Temple Mount is the holiest site in the Jewish
religion, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam,
after Mecca and Medina. When violence forced Israel to shut down
access to the Al-Aqsa mosque for two days in February of this year,
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas called it "tantamount to
a declaration of war," and Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel.
Jordan said that Israeli practices in Jerusalem were undermining 1994
peace treaty between the two countries. The peace treaty had
reaffirmed Jordanian oversight of Jerusalem's holy sites.

On Sunday, an angry Netanyahu announced a "harsh offensive" on
Palestinian violence. New measures would include speeding up the
razing of homes of Palestinian attackers and banning those who incite
violence from the Old City. Netanyahu said that he would step up
administrative detentions, deploy more forces in Jerusalem and in the
West Bank and to remove agitators from Jerusalem's Old City and Temple
Mount.

Possibly even more significant, Israeli police are now restricting
access to Jerusalem's Old City. Only Israeli citizens, Old City
residents, tourists, businesspeople working in the area and students
studying there will be allowed to enter. Also, Muslim men under the
age of 50 will be prevented from attending prayers at the Al-Aqsa
Mosque, which is similar to the restriction that led to Palestinian
outrage in February of this year. Reuters and Guardian (London)

****
**** Abbas's UN speech raises concerns about a Palestinian 'third intifada'
****

Palestinian leaders are expressing outrage, especially over the
restrictions on access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. According to one
Palestinian official:

<QUOTE>"What's happening today is a renewal of Israeli
arrogance and recklessness. Jerusalem is now a military base,
sons of Jerusalem are now banned from entering the Old
City."<END QUOTE>

PLO Secretary-General Saeb Erekat said:

<QUOTE>"These events are reminiscent of September 2000 [the
start of the second intifada]. ... Experience shows us that Israel
cannot prevent Palestinian freedom by forceful measures. ... [We]
are in touch with leaders in the Arab world and International
community in order to prevent Israel from expanding into a greater
ground incursion."<END QUOTE>

Erekat might also have mentioned that these events are reminiscent of
the week's preceding last summer's Gaza War. After it was over, Hamas
said that it was only trying to foment a "third intifada." ( "22-Aug-14 World View -- Hamas says it didn't intend to start the Gaza War"
)

The first two intifadas occurred, respectively in 1987-93 and 2000-03.
What makes an intifada different from an ordinary riot is that it
receives more widespread popular support, and the riots and violence
are more sustained, rather than sporadic. The first intifada resulted
in constant scenes of Palestinians throwing rocks at Israeli army and
police in daily clashes, and it eventually led to the 1993 peace
treaty.

The second intifada was triggered by a visit to the Al-Aqsa mosque by
Ariel Sharon in 2000. This intifada went beyond rock throwing into
pitched gun battles, suicide bombing and terrorist activities. It led
to the building of the wall that separates much of Israel from the
West Bank.

Many people predicted a third intifada in 2014, but there was a 60-day
full-scale Gaza war instead.

The violence in Jerusalem has been further fueled by the 'bombshell' ultimatum that Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas delivered to Israel
in his United
Nations speech on Wednesday. He threatened to stop abiding by the
terms of the 1993 peace agreement, and suggested that he would end the
Palestinian-Israeli security agreement where Palestinian security
forces are responsible for policing the West Bank. If the agreement
is ended, then Israel would be responsible, as the "occupying power,"
to police the entire West Bank. This would trigger numerous clashes
between Palestinian protesters and Israeli police, and may be all
that's necessary in the present climate to start a third intifada.

According to Erekat, the Palestinian leadership is waiting for Abbas
to return back to the West Bank from his UN trip, in order to
implement "what (he) declared in his speech" to the UN. Jerusalem Post and CNN
and YNet and Telegraph (London - 6-Nov-2014)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, West Bank, Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Temple Mount, Al-Aqsa Mosque, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas,
Saeb Erekat, Gaza war, first intifada, second intifada

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Actually, you have it backwards. The purpose of much of the process
defined by the Constitution is to prevent rash decisions, by forcing
politicians to negotiate. And that was in the days when "travel was
by horseback."

Today, we're in "a 21st century age of fast travel, internet
communications, aircraft carriers, nukes and ICBMs," where decisions
are implemented at lightning speed. In that kind of environment,
preventing rash decisions is even more important than it was in 1790,
and so the procedures should actually be strengthened, and least in
some cases.

The problem with procedures is this: The government is supposed to represent the interests of the people, government policy is supposed to embody the will of the people. It does matter what the will is, or if the people's will is objectively good or not, the government is not supposed to be able to impose a contrary will of policy onto the people. Basically if the people do not approve a policy, it just doesn't get carried out. The only exception to this is policy towards the military, where the policy carried out is anything that strengthens or expands our military or military footprint and/or where gains from a venture exceed possible losses. Here the government can carry out policy unchallenged as long it meets the parameters mentioned in the previous sentence regardless of whether it is approved by the general populace or not.

*** 6-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey threatens Russia if airspace violations are repeated

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey threatens Russia if airspace violations are repeated
• Russia's incursions may be targeting Turkey's Hatay province

****
**** Turkey threatens Russia if airspace violations are repeated
****


NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (R) expressing solidarity with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Feridun Sinirlioglu, in Brussels on Monday

Russian warplanes violated Turkey's airspace on two occasions over
the weekend, once on Saturday and once on Sunday.

Russia's Defense Ministry admitted Saturday's intrusion, saying that
it was an accidental intrusion caused by poor weather, but denied
knowing anything about Sunday's intrusion.

Based on the experience and Ukraine, we know that anything that a
Russian official says is going be partially or completely a lie, there
is no particular reason to believe Russia's Defense Ministry.

Indeed, an unnamed senior US official said the Obama administration
does not believe the incursion was an accident, and officials are in
urgent talks with allies about what to do.

Since Turkey is a member of Nato, an attack on Turkey be an attack on
all of Nato. Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued the
following statement:

<QUOTE>"I just met with the Foreign Minister of Turkey
Feridun Sinirlioglu to discuss the recent military actions of the
Russian Federation in and around Syria. Including the unacceptable
violations of Turkish airspace by Russian combat aircraft.

I made clear that NATO remains strongly committed to Turkey’s
security. I will convene a meeting of the North Atlantic Council
later today to discuss the situation.

Russia’s actions are not contributing to the security and
stability of the region.

I call on Russia to fully respect NATO airspace and to avoid
escalating tensions with the Alliance. I urge Russia to take the
necessary steps to align its efforts with those of the
international community in the fight against ISIL."<END QUOTE>

The harshest threat came from Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu,
who said any future warplanes violating Turkey's airspace could be
shot down:

<QUOTE>"What we received from Russia this morning indicates
that this was a mistake, that they respect Turkey's borders and
that this will not happen again.

Turkey's rules of engagement apply to all planes, be they Syrian,
Russian or from elsewhere. Turkey's armed forces have very clear
instructions. The necessary steps will be taken against whoever
violates Turkey's borders, even if it's a bird.

For Russia, which long opposed foreign intervention in Syria and
blocked UN Security Council [UNSC] resolutions, to be actively
involved in Syria is both a contradiction and a move that has
escalated the crisis.

The Turkish Armed Forces [TSK] have their orders. What is
necessary will be done, even if it's a bird that violates Turkey's
border... Our rules of engagement are clear,"<END QUOTE>

The back story is that in June, 2011, Syrian forces shot down a
Turkish air force jet. ( "23-Jun-12 World View -- Syria shoots down Turkey's air force jet"
) A furious Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
vowed that the rules of engagement would be changed, and that Turkey
would use military force in response to any incursion by Syrian
aircraft.

On September 16, 2013, Turkey scrambled two F-16 jets, and shot down a Syrian Russian-made Mi-17 helicopter,
after warning it that it was approaching Turkish
airspace. The helicopter was shot down over Turkey's airspace, but it
landed in a ball of flames on the Syrian side of the border. Reports
indicates that Syrian anti-government rebels shot the pilots dead
after they ejected.

It's hard to overestimate the significance of these developments, as I
wrote last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast."

Russia's military incursion into Syria is substantially inflaming
sectarian tensions throughout the Mideast. Russia and Turkey are
age-old enemies that have fought many generational crisis wars.
Russia is allied with Iran, who is a bitter enemy of Saudi Arabia.
And Russia's incursion is inflaming Sunni jihadists who are reminded
of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Russia feels that it can do anything it wants in the Mideast or
elsewhere because the Obama administration is extremely weak and will
always back off from any Russian show of force. As I've been writing
for years, the entire Mideast is headed for a full-scale sectarian
generational crisis war that will engulf the region. Russian
officials may believe that Obama's weakness allows them to do anything
they want, but their actions are inflaming age-old ethnic and
religious conflicts that will lead to a major war. Today's Zaman (Turkey) and AP and NATO

****
**** Russia's incursions may be targeting Turkey's Hatay province
****


'The Statue of Tolerance' in Antakya, the provincial capital of Turkey's Hatay province. Two massive hands are raised towards the sky, one holding a globe, the other a cross, a crescent and a Star of David

There's a major reason why Western officials believe that the Russians
are lying, beyond the fact that Russia's president Vladimir Putin lies
about pretty much everything.

The reason was expressed in a BBC interview by James Jeffrey, former
US ambassador to Turkey, now at Washington Institute for Near East
Policy. According to Jeffrey:

<QUOTE>"It's tremendously destablizing, and here's one reason
why. The area they flew into, Hatay province, I know it well, was
part of Syria until the end of the 1930s, and Syria has never
acknowledged that as Turkish territory, so you have a very
interesting situation. It's very difficult for me to believe that
the Russians made a mistake. ...

I think this [Russian intervention] is long term, and I think it
is that Putin doesn't think there's any real beef behind this
coalition, beginning here in Washington. He thinks that as he
bullies his way forward, everybody 's going to fall back. The
coalition of forces and capabilities weigh against him. Putin's a
guy all about intentions. He doesn't think that president Obama
intends to do anything other than back down when Putin threatens
him."<END QUOTE>

So the implication is that Russia's military may invade Hatay province
and annex it to Syria in the same way that Russia's military invaded
Crimea and annexed it to Russia. Russia can count on Obama and Nato
to back down, but Monday's incursions tested whether Turkey would also
back down. In fact, Turkey did back down from its rules of
engagement, and only warned Russia instead of shooting down the
warplanes, but that could change next time, as Davutoglu's threat
implies.

Most of the population of Hatay province is Alawite, the same as
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The population is strongly secular
and committed to religious tolerance, but the people are divided about
the Syrian war, with Alawite's supporting the regime and Hatay's Sunni
population supporting the opposition. Washington Institute for Near East Policy (4-Apr-2013) and
Guardian (London 3-Sep-2013)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Syria, Hatay province,
Nato, Jens Stoltenberg, Feridun Sinirlioglu, Antakya,
Statue of Tolerance, Vladimir Putin, James Jeffrey,
Bashar al-Assad

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*** 7-Oct-15 World View -- Yemen's Houthis sign letter agreeing to peace plan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen's Houthis sign letter agreeing to peace plan
• Generational frustration grows among West Bank Palestinians
• Russia Ministry of Defense videos found to be deceptive
• The sleazy world of loan sharking -- legally

****
**** Yemen's Houthis sign letter agreeing to peace plan
****


Tank destroyed in clashes between Houthis and government forces in Aden (BBC)

The war in Yemen hasn't been in headlines much lately, thanks to the
growing disaster in Syria, but the status is as follows:

• It's causing one of the worst humanitarian disasters in
  decades.
  
• Large numbers of civilians are being killed by airstrikes from the
  Saudi Arabia-led coalition
  
• Both the government forces and Houthis are losing many soldiers in
  battle, in what is almost becoming a war of attrition.
  
• The Saudis have successfully recaptured much of southern Yemen,
  starting from the port of Aden.
  
• However, the government forces have little chance of recapturing
  the capital city Sanaa, without enormous loss of live on both sides,
  plus a lot of civilian deaths.

These factors have apparent convinced the Iran-backed Houthi
leadership to sign a letter to UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon
committing to Ban's peace plan. The letter commits to a ceasefire,
the removal of armed militias from the cities, including Sanaa, and
the return of the international recognized government of Abdu Rabu
Mansour Hadi to Sanaa.

Signing a letter committing to a ceasefire is possibly a game-changing
event. The whole thing could fall apart quickly over negotiations on
implementing the peace plan. Or it could be a ploy to gain time to
rearm.

The peace plan was put forward by Oman several months ago, and is
known as the 7-point Muscat plan, where Muscat is the capital city of
Oman. The 7 points are:

• The withdrawal of the Houthis and forces loyal to deposed
  president Ali Abdullah Saleh from all Yemeni cities and the return of
  military hardware and munitions seized from the army.
  
• The restoration of the president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi and the
  government of Khalid Bahah.
  
• Early parliamentary and presidential elections.
  
• An agreement signed by all Yemeni parties.
  
• The conversion of the Houthis into a political party.
  
• An international aid conference attended by donor states.
  
• Yemen entering the Gulf Cooperation Council.

According to reports at the time, the plan was approved by both Saudi
Arabia and Iran. The Houthis have been holdouts, until now. BBC and
Al Araby (24-April-2015)

****
**** Generational frustration grows among West Bank Palestinians
****

Al-Jazeera reporter Hoda Abdel-Hamid was asked to Tuesday to report on
the mood of the Palestinians in the West Bank. Here's her response
(my transcript):

<QUOTE>"As Mike Hanna [another reporter] said there, there is
frustration, but I would add to it there's disillusionment, and
lack of hope in the future. Most of the youth who go to these
protests and to these clashes are in their late teens and their
early twenties. Ever since they were born, they heard about the
Oslo Accords, they heard about the two state solution, they've
been watching summits, and international conferences, but on the
ground their reality has actually shrunk with each expansion of
the settlements, with each land grab from Israel, with each
confrontation - they also grow more and more angry.

So when you talk to people here, the problem is there is no
solution inside, there is no political settlement that's going to
come any time soon. And you really feel that they don't know any
more, how to express how frustrated they are, about how things are
going. They keep on saying that Israel is shrinking their area of
living, their livelihood, they're taking away land, they also have
a lot of concerns about what's going on around the Al-Aqsa
compound, this is gonna bring another turn to this conflict that's
been going on forever. So many will just tell you we don't
believe in anything anymore. Some of the youth also say, well,
maybe going back to violence is the only solution ahead - maybe
that will put pressure on the international community to bring
about a solution.

I think you have these very mixed feelings, people will also tell
you, especially a bit older generation, will tell you, well we had
Intifada one, we had Intifada two, we've paid with our blood, and
we still didn't get anything. So that's I think really the crux
of the dilemma for the Palestinian people. They look forward, but
they don't know what to look at exactly."<END QUOTE>

This is an interesting because it shows a typical generational split
that's present in every society in every country in every era. The
kids are ready for violence, but the parents hold the kids back, since
they remember how horrific the violence was last time, and how it
didn't end up the way they wanted.

Still, there is a growing frustration in the Palestinian territories.
As I've been writing since May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", Generational
Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war
that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel.

****
**** Russia Ministry of Defense videos found to be deceptive
****

Russia continues to claim that its warplanes in Syria are targeting
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), although
numerous reports indicate that Russia's warplanes are avoiding ISIS
targets and are targeting the so-called "moderate" opposition to the
Bashar al-Assad regime, including groups that are supported by the
United States.

Russia has posted 14 videos showing Russian airstrikes in Syria.
Russia claims that all of the videos show ISIS targets being bombed,
and many of them claimed that the bombed locations were in Raqqa, an
ISIS stronghold.

But web site called "Bellingcat" claims to have analyzed the videos
using geolocation technology and crowdsourcing techniques, and says
that the following is true of 12 of the videos analyzed so far:

• 3 videos were verified as being in locations matching the
  title and description of the videos. In all 3 videos the targets of
  Russian bombing are described as “terrorists” rather than ISIS, which
  is taken as a catch all term for armed Syrian opposition groups.
  
• 5 videos gave locations that were accurate, but described the
  attacks as targeting ISIS when there is no known current ISIS presence
  in those areas.
  
• 2 videos gave the location as Raqqa, but were in fact filmed over
  100 miles west of Raqqa in areas with no known ISIS presence.
  
• 1 video gave no location, but was geolocated to an area where
  there was no known ISIS presence, despite the title of the video
  claiming otherwise.
  
• 1 video gave a location at the entrance to Ma’aart al Nu’man but
  was geolocated to an area 20km away from Ma’aart al Nu’man.

The web site called "Bellingcat" calls itself "by and for citizen
investigative journalists," and is presumably named after the ancient
"Belling the cat" fable.

There's no independent verification of the Bellingcat findings, but
they're consistent with the fact that, as we learned with the Ukraine
invasion and now the Syria incursion, that Russian officials can never
be believed. Bellingcat analysis

****
**** The sleazy world of loan sharking -- legally
****

The story of how two ultrareligious men, Abe Zeines and Meir Hurwitz,
made ridiculous by lending money to desperate business owners, usually
immigrants.

<QUOTE>"With no competition, Second Source could charge
whatever it wanted. The standard deal it offered small businesses
was to borrow $9,000 and pay back $120 a day for six months, or a
total of $14,500, equivalent to an interest rate of 250 percent a
year. That’s 10 times the legal limit in New York state, which
made it a crime in the 1960s to charge more than 25 percent. To
get around that, merchant cash-advance companies argue they aren’t
actually charging interest—they’re buying the money businesses
will make in the future, at a discount. As long as nobody uses the
word “loan,” it usually holds up in court, says Robert Cook, a
lawyer who advises the industry. Another no-no is chasing down an
individual to collect if the business fails. Merchant cash advance
is a supercharged version of “factoring,” the age-old practice of
trading the right to collect unpaid bills in exchange for cash
upfront."<END QUOTE>

As I've been pointing out for many, many years, bankers created the
financial crisis by selling fraudulent synthetic subprime-mortgage
backed securities. Since nobody was punished, they went on to commit
fraud in the Libor and Forex scandals. All this has come about since
the rise of Generation-X starting in 2000, after which white collar
crimes are never prosecuted, as long as they give a substantial
portion of their fraudulent gains to politicians as campaign
contributions. Now we have loan sharks making tens of millions of
dollars by legalized loan sharking. Until some of these people are
put in jail, these activities are not going to stop. Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Aden, Sanaa, Ali Abdullah Saleh,
Muscat, Oman, Hoda Abdel-Hamid, West Bank,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Bellingcat,
Abe Zeines, Meir Hurwitz

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

**** The sleazy world of loan sharking -- legally
****

The story of how two ultrareligious men, Abe Zeines and Meir Hurwitz,
made ridiculous by lending money to desperate business owners, usually
immigrants.

<QUOTE>"With no competition, Second Source could charge
whatever it wanted. The standard deal it offered small businesses
was to borrow $9,000 and pay back $120 a day for six months, or a
total of $14,500, equivalent to an interest rate of 250 percent a
year. That’s 10 times the legal limit in New York state, which
made it a crime in the 1960s to charge more than 25 percent. To
get around that, merchant cash-advance companies argue they aren’t
actually charging interest—they’re buying the money businesses
will make in the future, at a discount. As long as nobody uses the
word “loan,” it usually holds up in court, says Robert Cook, a
lawyer who advises the industry. Another no-no is chasing down an
individual to collect if the business fails. Merchant cash advance
is a supercharged version of “factoring,” the age-old practice of
trading the right to collect unpaid bills in exchange for cash
upfront."<END QUOTE>

As I've been pointing out for many, many years, bankers created the
financial crisis by selling fraudulent synthetic subprime-mortgage
backed securities. Since nobody was punished, they went on to commit
fraud in the Libor and Forex scandals. All this has come about since
the rise of Generation-X starting in 2000, after which white collar
crimes are never prosecuted, as long as they give a substantial
portion of their fraudulent gains to politicians as campaign
contributions. Now we have loan sharks making tens of millions of
dollars by legalized loan sharking. Until some of these people are
put in jail, these activities are not going to stop. Bloomberg

+

Originally Posted by zerohedge

“I don’t hide tattoos, I don’t take earrings out. I just don’t do that, because ultimately if you don’t like who I am, you’re not going to like what I do.”

Who knows what that is supposed to mean, but it’s a quote from Douglas Merrill who, as Bloomberg notes, “has peacock feathers tattooed down his left arm, black fingernail polish, [and] chin-length hair.”
Two other things Douglas has are a Ph.D. in cognitive science from Princeton and the online version of a payday lender called ZestFinance.
Now make no mistake, payday lenders are bad because what they do is trap low-income households in a perpetual debt cycle and they do it in the name of providing credit to those who wouldn’t normally have access to it.
In other words: the pitch is that before you think about criticizing a payday lender for charging an APR that amounts to 30%, you should actually think about whether you should be praising them for helping America’s downtrodden debt serfs get into still more debt.
Of course we’re employing quite a bit of trademark sarcasm here. Payday lenders have been proven time and again to be largely predatory in nature, capitalizing off of the desperation of poor people albeit with a business model that comes with substantial risk because.. well... because the business model depends on collecting interest payments from those same poor people who have just been made poorer-er-er by the fact that they took out yet another loan they most certaintly can't afford to service.
Anyway, Fortress is ready to jump in on this to the tune of hundreds of millions:

“I don’t lie about who I am,” [Merrill] said in an interview from the startup’s headquarters among the pawn shops and souvenir stores on Hollywood Boulevard in Los Angeles. “I don’t hide tattoos, I don’t take earrings out. I just don’t do that, because ultimately if you don’t like who I am, you’re not going to like what I do.”

The funding from Fortress, which manages about $72 billion, will help ZestFinance make more of its Basix installment loans, which are capped at $5,000, last as long as three years and carry annual rates of up to 36 percent. Borrowers often use the money to consolidate credit-card debt or pay for medical expenses, Merrill said.

His unusual appearance in the financial world is a luxury he can afford. ZestFinance is among a crop of startups leading a technology-driven push to make lending easier and cheaper. Wall Street firms and other large institutional money managers have taken note, writing big checks to participate in the fast-growing businesses.

Avant Inc., one of ZestFinance’s competitors, said last week that it had raised $325 million from investors including private-equity firm General Atlantic and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Social Finance Inc., which helps borrowers from elite colleges consolidate student debt, said a day later that it raised $1 billion from investors including Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. and affiliates of Dan Loeb’s hedge-fund firm Third Point LLC.

ZestFinance gained notoriety in recent years for its approach to underwriting some of the most challenging borrowers. By sifting through oceans of data, Merrill and his colleagues created models that are being used to provide an online alternative to payday loans. Still, they’re not cheap: Some carry annual percentage rates of as high as 390 percent.

Right.
What could possibly go wrong here?
Here's a guy with a PhD lending money provided by a firm whose cost of capital is basically zero to borrowers whose credit is terrible and these loans carry APRs that approach 400%.
Let's call this what it is: this is just nonsense and what will end up happening is that these loans will end up in the collateral pool of a CDO at some point and the very same hedge funds and PE houses that are providing the financing will end up betting against the loans they effectively made in a hilarious Abacus CDO redux that mainstreet with neither care about, remember, nor understand, which will be great news for Merrill and Wall Street because that means they can continue to perpetuate the business model.

KEYS: Legalized loan sharking,Wall Street malfeascense, CDO's, 2008 redux

*** 8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea
• Russian Orthodox Church declares a 'Holy War' in Syria
• Russia's 'Holy War' in Syria declaration sparks calls for jihad
• IMF warns of significant danger of global financial crash

****
**** Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea
****


Map showing likely path of Russia's cruise missiles from Caspian Sea to Syria

Another day, another escalation. There have been rumors and reports
that suggested that Russia might bomb targets in Syria from
warships located in the Mediterranean Sea, and that could still
happen.

But on Wednesday, Russia has surprised everyone by launching a volley
of 26 cruise missiles from four warships in the Caspian Sea at targets
in Syria. The cruise missiles, which have a range of up to 2,500 km,
had to travel 1,500 km over the countries of Iran and Iraq, and the
Russians claim that they obtained permission from those countries to
do so.

The Russians claimed that the cruise missiles were targeting
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), but
analysts pointed out that, as usual, the Russians are simply lying.
According to reports, the missiles targeted Urbil and Homa,
which are Free Syrian Army (FSA) strongholds with no ISIS
presence.

Last week, Russian warplanes that supposedly were striking ISIS
targets actually attacked the headquarters of the Free Syrian Army in
Kafr Nabl in northern Idlib province. Another attack was on an
emergency hospital that treats wounded fighters. Turkey's Prime
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Wednesday that on two of Russia's 57
airstrikes in Syria have hit ISIS targets, while the rest have
targeted other groups.

It's increasingly clear that the Russians are not targeting ISIS,
except perfunctorily. The Syrian conflict began in 2011 when the
regime of president Bashar al-Assad started bombing innocent
protesting civilians, massacring tens of thousands of innocent Sunni
women and children with heavy weapons and Sarin gas, and with barrel
bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.

It al-Assad's genocidal actions that drew tens of thousands of young
jihadists from around the world to Syria to fight the al-Assad regime,
resulting in the creation of ISIS. Al-Assad has never targeted ISIS,
but has supported ISIS because ISIS has been fighting other Syrian
opposition groups, doing al-Assad's job for him.

Russian warplanes violated Turkey's airspace earlier this week, and
now Russia is launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. Both of
these actions are significant escalations by the Russians. It's
increasingly clear that the Russians do not accept any limit to their
military intervention into Syria, including, if desired, a full-scale
invasion.

Now the Russians are continuing al-Assad's genocidal acts, with
warplanes and now with cruise missiles. This is not going to defeat
ISIS, since ISIS isn't even being targeted. This is going to
strengthen ISIS by drawing more thousands of young jihadists from
around the world to join ISIS. Asia Times and Moscow Times (5-Oct) and <stdurl
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...sad-rebels-say
"CS Monitor"#> and Daily Sabah (Turkey)

****
**** Russian Orthodox Church declares a 'Holy War' in Syria
****


Patriarch Kirill and Vladimir Putin (Ria Novosti)

As I suggested last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast"
, one of worst outcomes from Russia's
intervention in Syria would occur if jihadists saw it as an Orthodox
Christian invasion of a Muslim country in the same way that they
viewed the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a Christian
invasion of a Muslim country.

Astonishingly, Russian officials seemed determined to make that
worst-case scenario a reality.

According to Vsevolod Chaplin, a senior cleric in the Orthodox Church:

<QUOTE>"The active position of our country has always been
connected with protection of the weak and oppressed, like the
Middle East Christians who are now experiencing a real genocide.
Russia’s role has always been in protecting peace and justice for
all Mideast peoples.

Terrorism is immoral and we need to protect those who are being
driven from their lands by war.

Whatever they are trying to justify terrorism with, it cannot be
justified. Thus, any fight against terrorism is moral, we can even
call it a holy fight."<END QUOTE>

Chaplain said that the invasion of Syria is supported by Russians of
all religious (which is highly doubtful), but it doesn't matter
because the phrase "holy fight" is being quoted in media around the
Mideast.

Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, issued a
statement saying:

<QUOTE>"The Russian Federation has made a responsible
decision on the use of armed forces to defend the people of Syria
from the sorrows caused by the arbitrariness of terrorists. We
believe this decision will bring peace and justice closer to this
ancient land.

Wishing peace to the peoples of Syria, Iraq and other countries of
the Middle East, we pray for this tough local conflict not to
develop into a major war, for the use of force not to lead to the
death of civilians, and for all Russian military [personnel] to
return home alive."<END QUOTE>

Russia Today (30-Sep) and Interfax-Religion (Moscow 30-Sep)

****
**** Russia's 'Holy War' in Syria declaration sparks calls for jihad
****

The statements made by the Russian Orthodox Church describing the war
being fought by the Russian army in Syria and its role in protecting
the Christians in the region as a “holy war” has sparked a wave of
angry Arab responses and statements on social networking sites. Such
statements have reached the point of declaring a jihad in response to
the Russian statement.

According to one jihad activist:

<QUOTE>"The Russians are burning our Syria, the Jews are
desecrating our Jerusalem, the Majoos (fire worshippers) are
emptying our Iraq of Sunni Muslims, and our leaders are killing
our free youth.

Our world is on the verge of exploding in anger and jihad. The
toughest fighters are those who have nothing to lose, and our
youth are so.

Jerusalem is besieged, blood is being shed in Egypt, Syria and
Iraq, justice in our countries is a thing of the past, and our
youth are longing for jihad. Beware to the secular Russians from
our Muslim youth who long to fight them and beware of the Zionists
from the jihad that is coming; a jihad that their allies prevented
us from carrying out. It seems that Syria will be the meeting
point and from there we will return to Jerusalem.<END QUOTE>

Dozens of Salafist clerics in Saudi Arabia signed an online statement
containing strong sectarian and anti-Christian language reflecting
mounting anger among many Saudis over Russian and Iranian involvement
in Syria's civil war.

The clerics' statement compared Russia's actions to the 1980s Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan, which prompted an international jihad, as
I've described many times. According to the statement:

<QUOTE>"The holy warriors of Syria are defending the whole
Islamic nation. Trust them and support them ... because if they
are defeated, God forbid, it will be the turn of one Sunni country
after another."<END QUOTE>

It's not clear that these online statements are inciting anyone to
action, but they are reflecting the enormous anger that Saudis feel
over arch-enemy Iran allying with Russia to kill Sunni Muslims in
Syria. Middle East Monitor and Reuters

****
**** IMF warns of significant danger of global financial crash
****

According to a report issued on Wednesday by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), the risk of global financial crash is increasing
because of a "triad of risks":

• Emerging market vulnerabilities: Emerging market economies
  have been declining for five years, making them more susceptible to
  financial stress, economic downturn, and capital outflows. The
  economic slowdown in China has had global effects. China’s bursting
  equity and margin-lending bubble, falling emerging market equities,
  and pressure on exchange rates, underscore these challenges.
  
• Legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies: The financial
  crisis that followed the bursting of the real estate bubble eight
  years ago pushed many people, companies and countries into extremely
  high debt. America's $17 trillion national debt has been
  well-publicized, but many other countries are in similar
  situations.
  
• Weak systemic market liquidity: Because central banks around the
  world have been flooding the banking system with money, through zero
  interest rates or quantitative easing, investors can no longer make
  money by buying bonds, and so they have to make extremely risky
  investments to make money. Even a small economic downturn could cause
  a chain reaction that could result in multiple bankruptcies. This
  kind of chain reaction is the cause of many historical
  crashes.

One of the ironies of the global financial crisis so far, especially
in developing economies, is that many countries have devalued their
currencies relative to the dollar. The result is that the dollar,
which has always been a strong currency, continues to become even
stronger.

In many countries, people have incurred business, mortgage or personal
debts that are denominated in dollars, rather than their local
currencies. With the dollar strengthening, these debts are becoming
substantially more expensive. According to the IMF report, countries
that are particularly exposed in this way are Hungary, Mexico,
Indonesia and Chile. BBC and Guardian (London) and CBS and International Monetary Fund (IMF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, Caspian Sea, Iran, Iraq,
Patriarch Kirill, Vsevolod Chaplin, Russian Orthodox Church,
Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
China, Hungary, Mexico, Indonesia, Chile

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea
• Russian Orthodox Church declares a 'Holy War' in Syria
• Russia's 'Holy War' in Syria declaration sparks calls for jihad
• IMF warns of significant danger of global financial crash

****
**** Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea
****


Map showing likely path of Russia's cruise missiles from Caspian Sea to Syria

Another day, another escalation. There have been rumors and reports
that suggested that Russia might bomb targets in Syria from
warships located in the Mediterranean Sea, and that could still
happen.

But on Wednesday, Russia has surprised everyone by launching a volley
of 26 cruise missiles from four warships in the Caspian Sea at targets
in Syria. The cruise missiles, which have a range of up to 2,500 km,
had to travel 1,500 km over the countries of Iran and Iraq, and the
Russians claim that they obtained permission from those countries to
do so.

The Russians claimed that the cruise missiles were targeting
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), but
analysts pointed out that, as usual, the Russians are simply lying.
According to reports, the missiles targeted Urbil and Homa,
which are Free Syrian Army (FSA) strongholds with no ISIS
presence.

Last week, Russian warplanes that supposedly were striking ISIS
targets actually attacked the headquarters of the Free Syrian Army in
Kafr Nabl in northern Idlib province. Another attack was on an
emergency hospital that treats wounded fighters. Turkey's Prime
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Wednesday that on two of Russia's 57
airstrikes in Syria have hit ISIS targets, while the rest have
targeted other groups.

It's increasingly clear that the Russians are not targeting ISIS,
except perfunctorily. The Syrian conflict began in 2011 when the
regime of president Bashar al-Assad started bombing innocent
protesting civilians, massacring tens of thousands of innocent Sunni
women and children with heavy weapons and Sarin gas, and with barrel
bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.

It al-Assad's genocidal actions that drew tens of thousands of young
jihadists from around the world to Syria to fight the al-Assad regime,
resulting in the creation of ISIS. Al-Assad has never targeted ISIS,
but has supported ISIS because ISIS has been fighting other Syrian
opposition groups, doing al-Assad's job for him.

Russian warplanes violated Turkey's airspace earlier this week, and
now Russia is launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. Both of
these actions are significant escalations by the Russians. It's
increasingly clear that the Russians do not accept any limit to their
military intervention into Syria, including, if desired, a full-scale
invasion.

Now the Russians are continuing al-Assad's genocidal acts, with
warplanes and now with cruise missiles. This is not going to defeat
ISIS, since ISIS isn't even being targeted. This is going to
strengthen ISIS by drawing more thousands of young jihadists from
around the world to join ISIS. Asia Times and Moscow Times (5-Oct) and <stdurl
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...sad-rebels-say
"CS Monitor"#> and Daily Sabah (Turkey)

****
**** Russian Orthodox Church declares a 'Holy War' in Syria
****


Patriarch Kirill and Vladimir Putin (Ria Novosti)

As I suggested last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast"
, one of worst outcomes from Russia's
intervention in Syria would occur if jihadists saw it as an Orthodox
Christian invasion of a Muslim country in the same way that they
viewed the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a Christian
invasion of a Muslim country.

Astonishingly, Russian officials seemed determined to make that
worst-case scenario a reality.

According to Vsevolod Chaplin, a senior cleric in the Orthodox Church:

<QUOTE>"The active position of our country has always been
connected with protection of the weak and oppressed, like the
Middle East Christians who are now experiencing a real genocide.
Russia’s role has always been in protecting peace and justice for
all Mideast peoples.

Terrorism is immoral and we need to protect those who are being
driven from their lands by war.

Whatever they are trying to justify terrorism with, it cannot be
justified. Thus, any fight against terrorism is moral, we can even
call it a holy fight."<END QUOTE>

Chaplain said that the invasion of Syria is supported by Russians of
all religious (which is highly doubtful), but it doesn't matter
because the phrase "holy fight" is being quoted in media around the
Mideast.

Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, issued a
statement saying:

<QUOTE>"The Russian Federation has made a responsible
decision on the use of armed forces to defend the people of Syria
from the sorrows caused by the arbitrariness of terrorists. We
believe this decision will bring peace and justice closer to this
ancient land.

Wishing peace to the peoples of Syria, Iraq and other countries of
the Middle East, we pray for this tough local conflict not to
develop into a major war, for the use of force not to lead to the
death of civilians, and for all Russian military [personnel] to
return home alive."<END QUOTE>

Russia Today (30-Sep) and Interfax-Religion (Moscow 30-Sep)

****
**** Russia's 'Holy War' in Syria declaration sparks calls for jihad
****

The statements made by the Russian Orthodox Church describing the war
being fought by the Russian army in Syria and its role in protecting
the Christians in the region as a “holy war” has sparked a wave of
angry Arab responses and statements on social networking sites. Such
statements have reached the point of declaring a jihad in response to
the Russian statement.

According to one jihad activist:

<QUOTE>"The Russians are burning our Syria, the Jews are
desecrating our Jerusalem, the Majoos (fire worshippers) are
emptying our Iraq of Sunni Muslims, and our leaders are killing
our free youth.

Our world is on the verge of exploding in anger and jihad. The
toughest fighters are those who have nothing to lose, and our
youth are so.

Jerusalem is besieged, blood is being shed in Egypt, Syria and
Iraq, justice in our countries is a thing of the past, and our
youth are longing for jihad. Beware to the secular Russians from
our Muslim youth who long to fight them and beware of the Zionists
from the jihad that is coming; a jihad that their allies prevented
us from carrying out. It seems that Syria will be the meeting
point and from there we will return to Jerusalem.<END QUOTE>

Dozens of Salafist clerics in Saudi Arabia signed an online statement
containing strong sectarian and anti-Christian language reflecting
mounting anger among many Saudis over Russian and Iranian involvement
in Syria's civil war.

The clerics' statement compared Russia's actions to the 1980s Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan, which prompted an international jihad, as
I've described many times. According to the statement:

<QUOTE>"The holy warriors of Syria are defending the whole
Islamic nation. Trust them and support them ... because if they
are defeated, God forbid, it will be the turn of one Sunni country
after another."<END QUOTE>

It's not clear that these online statements are inciting anyone to
action, but they are reflecting the enormous anger that Saudis feel
over arch-enemy Iran allying with Russia to kill Sunni Muslims in
Syria. Middle East Monitor and Reuters

****
**** IMF warns of significant danger of global financial crash
****

According to a report issued on Wednesday by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), the risk of global financial crash is increasing
because of a "triad of risks":

• Emerging market vulnerabilities: Emerging market economies
  have been declining for five years, making them more susceptible to
  financial stress, economic downturn, and capital outflows. The
  economic slowdown in China has had global effects. China’s bursting
  equity and margin-lending bubble, falling emerging market equities,
  and pressure on exchange rates, underscore these challenges.
• Legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies: The financial
  crisis that followed the bursting of the real estate bubble eight
  years ago pushed many people, companies and countries into extremely
  high debt. America's $17 trillion national debt has been
  well-publicized, but many other countries are in similar
  situations.
• Weak systemic market liquidity: Because central banks around the
  world have been flooding the banking system with money, through zero
  interest rates or quantitative easing, investors can no longer make
  money by buying bonds, and so they have to make extremely risky
  investments to make money. Even a small economic downturn could cause
  a chain reaction that could result in multiple bankruptcies. This
  kind of chain reaction is the cause of many historical
  crashes.

One of the ironies of the global financial crisis so far, especially
in developing economies, is that many countries have devalued their
currencies relative to the dollar. The result is that the dollar,
which has always been a strong currency, continues to become even
stronger.

In many countries, people have incurred business, mortgage or personal
debts that are denominated in dollars, rather than their local
currencies. With the dollar strengthening, these debts are becoming
substantially more expensive. According to the IMF report, countries
that are particularly exposed in this way are Hungary, Mexico,
Indonesia and Chile. BBC and Guardian (London) and CBS and International Monetary Fund (IMF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, Caspian Sea, Iran, Iraq,
Patriarch Kirill, Vsevolod Chaplin, Russian Orthodox Church,
Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
China, Hungary, Mexico, Indonesia, Chile

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The idiot Russians are helping us to bring back the Northern Tier, Ike smiles from on high.

*** 9-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli-Palestinian violence spreads across West Bank as anger grows

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of cars in China stuck in week-long traffic jam
• Fears in Israel grow of 'third intifada' as West Bank violence spreads
• Anger and frustration grow among West Bank Palestinians
• Four Russian cruise missiles fall in Iran
• Severe epidemic of dengue fever strikes Vietnam

****
**** Thousands of cars in China stuck in week-long traffic jam
****


Vehicles stuck in week-long traffic jam on 30-lane highway as they approach a toll booth near Beijing. (Reuters)

Thousands of families in China, returning to Beijing at the end of a
week-long national day holiday, are now stuck in a week-long traffic
jam. As the cars approach Beijing, the 30-lane highway narrows to
fewer than 10 lanes at a toll booth. Russia Today

****
**** Fears in Israel grow of 'third intifada' as West Bank violence spreads
****

According to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al
Hussein:

<QUOTE>"The security situation has deteriorated dramatically
over the past week in the West Bank, including East
Jerusalem. Four Israelis and five Palestinians have already lost
their lives, while hundreds of others have been injured. More
bloodshed will only lead to more hatred on both sides, and offer
no solution in the long run.

The violence is spreading rapidly across the entire West Bank. In
the past week, violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli
security forces have been reported in more than 50 different
locations, including in East Jerusalem, Ramallah, Hebron,
Bethlehem, Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus.

The escalating tensions indicate a general sense of growing
frustration and despair resulting from the situation of prolonged
occupation, exacerbated by recent restrictions imposed by the
Israeli authorities on Palestinian worshippers wishing to access
the Al-Aqsa [and Temple Mount] compound, the ongoing settlement
expansion and settler violence, and a general lack of
accountability in cases such as the Duma arson
attack."<END QUOTE>

Although both Palestinians and Israelis have contributed to the the
violence, Al-Hussein mostly ignored Palestinian incitement and assigns
almost all of the blame to the Israelis, and particularly mentioned
Duma arson "price tag" attack by Israeli settlers. ( "1-Aug-15 World View -- Tensions with Palestinians soar after brutal Israeli settler 'price tag' attack"
)

Despite the efforts of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to calm the situation,
the amount of violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the West
Bank has increased significantly in the last two weeks.

In just the last couple of days, several Israelis were stabbed by
Palestinians, and some Palestinians were killed by Israeli security
forces.

Netanyahu was scheduled on Thursday to fly to Germany for events
commemorating 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two
countries, but had to cancel the trip because of the wave of violence.
"We are still in the midst of a wave of terror. We are taking strong
action against terrorists, rioters and inciters," said Netanyahu.

Jerusalem has been the epicenter of the violence, where police since
mid-September have arrested at least 270 Palestinians suspected of
taking part in riots and rock and firebomb attacks. Violence in the
Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem is extremely
sensitive. Temple Mount is the holiest site in the Jewish religion,
and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca
and Medina. Al Monitor and United Nations and LA Times

****
**** Anger and frustration grow among West Bank Palestinians
****

As we reported two days ago,

there is a big generational component to the increasing
West Bank violence.

Ever since they were born, young Palestinians in their teens and early
twenties have been listening to talk about negotiations for a
two-state solution, but they see nothing ever change, and they don't
believe that negotiations will ever change anything.

The older Palestinians, their parents, remember the first intifada and
the second intifada, and although there was a great deal of bloodshed,
violence didn't accomplish anything more than negotiating did. So
the older Palestinians don't see the point in any more violence,
or a third intifada.

As we've been saying for years, Mahmoud Abbas is 80 years old (born in
1935), and is the only remaining major leader from the generation of
survivors of the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. Abbas, more than anyone, knows that a third intifada could
quickly spiral into a major war. He also knows that a major war will
bring about enormous bloodshed and suffering for millions of people
and, like negotiating or an intifada, will not accomplish anything.

Still, it's not clear how long Abbas can keep the top on
the pressure cooker. He's widely respected for his service
to Palestinians, but young people increasingly consider him
to be largely irrelevant.

If Abbas can keep a third intifada from starting now, then it will be
only a temporary reprieve from the violence. If Abbas steps down,
then the third intifada will probably begin. If the third intifada
begins, then Abbas will probably be forced to step down. Sooner or
later, those two events will occur. Spectator (London)

****
**** Four Russian cruise missiles fall in Iran
****

Yesterday we reported that four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea
launch 26 cruise missiles, with targets in Syria. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea"
)

According to unnamed U.S. officials, four of the missiles
did not reach their targets, but crashed in Iran.

Iran did not confirm the report, but Iran's news media reported that
"an unknown flying object" had crashed in the village of Ghozghapan in
the Iranian province of West Azerbaijan, said to be under the
missiles' flight path. BBC

****
**** Severe epidemic of dengue fever strikes Vietnam
****

There were 40,000 dengue fever infections in Vietnam during the first
nine months of the year, with 25 deaths, and the outbreak has not
showed any sign of winding down. Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon) had the
highest number of infections, 10,000. Doctors said the mosquito-borne
disease has a cyclical pattern and tends to become very severe after
three to five years. Thanh Nien News (Saigon)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Beijing,
Israel, West Bank, third intifada, Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein,
Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Jerusalem,
Russia, Iran, Syria, Vietnam, Dengue fever

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 9-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli-Palestinian violence spreads across West Bank as anger grows

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of cars in China stuck in week-long traffic jam
• Fears in Israel grow of 'third intifada' as West Bank violence spreads
• Anger and frustration grow among West Bank Palestinians
• Four Russian cruise missiles fall in Iran
• Severe epidemic of dengue fever strikes Vietnam

****
**** Thousands of cars in China stuck in week-long traffic jam
****


Vehicles stuck in week-long traffic jam on 30-lane highway as they approach a toll booth near Beijing. (Reuters)

Thousands of families in China, returning to Beijing at the end of a
week-long national day holiday, are now stuck in a week-long traffic
jam. As the cars approach Beijing, the 30-lane highway narrows to
fewer than 10 lanes at a toll booth. Russia Today

****
**** Fears in Israel grow of 'third intifada' as West Bank violence spreads
****

According to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al
Hussein:

<QUOTE>"The security situation has deteriorated dramatically
over the past week in the West Bank, including East
Jerusalem. Four Israelis and five Palestinians have already lost
their lives, while hundreds of others have been injured. More
bloodshed will only lead to more hatred on both sides, and offer
no solution in the long run.

The violence is spreading rapidly across the entire West Bank. In
the past week, violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli
security forces have been reported in more than 50 different
locations, including in East Jerusalem, Ramallah, Hebron,
Bethlehem, Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus.

The escalating tensions indicate a general sense of growing
frustration and despair resulting from the situation of prolonged
occupation, exacerbated by recent restrictions imposed by the
Israeli authorities on Palestinian worshippers wishing to access
the Al-Aqsa [and Temple Mount] compound, the ongoing settlement
expansion and settler violence, and a general lack of
accountability in cases such as the Duma arson
attack."<END QUOTE>

Although both Palestinians and Israelis have contributed to the the
violence, Al-Hussein mostly ignored Palestinian incitement and assigns
almost all of the blame to the Israelis, and particularly mentioned
Duma arson "price tag" attack by Israeli settlers. ( "1-Aug-15 World View -- Tensions with Palestinians soar after brutal Israeli settler 'price tag' attack"
)

Despite the efforts of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to calm the situation,
the amount of violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the West
Bank has increased significantly in the last two weeks.

In just the last couple of days, several Israelis were stabbed by
Palestinians, and some Palestinians were killed by Israeli security
forces.

Netanyahu was scheduled on Thursday to fly to Germany for events
commemorating 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two
countries, but had to cancel the trip because of the wave of violence.
"We are still in the midst of a wave of terror. We are taking strong
action against terrorists, rioters and inciters," said Netanyahu.

Jerusalem has been the epicenter of the violence, where police since
mid-September have arrested at least 270 Palestinians suspected of
taking part in riots and rock and firebomb attacks. Violence in the
Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem is extremely
sensitive. Temple Mount is the holiest site in the Jewish religion,
and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca
and Medina. Al Monitor and United Nations and LA Times

****
**** Anger and frustration grow among West Bank Palestinians
****

As we reported two days ago,

there is a big generational component to the increasing
West Bank violence.

Ever since they were born, young Palestinians in their teens and early
twenties have been listening to talk about negotiations for a
two-state solution, but they see nothing ever change, and they don't
believe that negotiations will ever change anything.

The older Palestinians, their parents, remember the first intifada and
the second intifada, and although there was a great deal of bloodshed,
violence didn't accomplish anything more than negotiating did. So
the older Palestinians don't see the point in any more violence,
or a third intifada.

As we've been saying for years, Mahmoud Abbas is 80 years old (born in
1935), and is the only remaining major leader from the generation of
survivors of the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. Abbas, more than anyone, knows that a third intifada could
quickly spiral into a major war. He also knows that a major war will
bring about enormous bloodshed and suffering for millions of people
and, like negotiating or an intifada, will not accomplish anything.

Still, it's not clear how long Abbas can keep the top on
the pressure cooker. He's widely respected for his service
to Palestinians, but young people increasingly consider him
to be largely irrelevant.

If Abbas can keep a third intifada from starting now, then it will be
only a temporary reprieve from the violence. If Abbas steps down,
then the third intifada will probably begin. If the third intifada
begins, then Abbas will probably be forced to step down. Sooner or
later, those two events will occur. Spectator (London)

****
**** Four Russian cruise missiles fall in Iran
****

Yesterday we reported that four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea
launch 26 cruise missiles, with targets in Syria. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea"
)

According to unnamed U.S. officials, four of the missiles
did not reach their targets, but crashed in Iran.

Iran did not confirm the report, but Iran's news media reported that
"an unknown flying object" had crashed in the village of Ghozghapan in
the Iranian province of West Azerbaijan, said to be under the
missiles' flight path. BBC

****
**** Severe epidemic of dengue fever strikes Vietnam
****

There were 40,000 dengue fever infections in Vietnam during the first
nine months of the year, with 25 deaths, and the outbreak has not
showed any sign of winding down. Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon) had the
highest number of infections, 10,000. Doctors said the mosquito-borne
disease has a cyclical pattern and tends to become very severe after
three to five years. Thanh Nien News (Saigon)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Beijing,
Israel, West Bank, third intifada, Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein,
Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Jerusalem,
Russia, Iran, Syria, Vietnam, Dengue fever

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Did those missiles fall out of the sky or were they HACKED out of the sky?

*** 10-Oct-15 World View -- Politics may force Obama to 'over-react' militarily in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian-Israeli violence continues in Gaza and West Bank
• Obama administration announces an abrupt change of policy in Syria
• Obama administration may be forced into greater military role

****
**** Palestinian-Israeli violence continues in Gaza and West Bank
****


Palestinian protesters in Gaza on Friday (AP)

Six Palestinians were killed and hundreds of Palestinians and Israeli
were wounded on Friday as several weeks of violence continued. ( "9-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli-Palestinian violence spreads across West Bank as anger grows"
)

Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, which governs Gaza, applauded the
recent Palestinian knife attacks on Israelis, and called for a "third
intifada." By contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
"strongly condemned the harming of innocent Arabs." Both Israeli and
Palestinian security forces are on high alert, with more violence
expected. Fox News/AP

****
**** Obama administration announces an abrupt change of policy in Syria
****

The Obama administration's widely ridiculed $500 million program to
train and equip Syrian rebels to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was "paused" on Friday as a publicly
admitted failure. The program was supposed to train thousands of
rebels, but the public was shocked several weeks ago when the
administration admitted that only "four or five" had been trained,
despite the program's huge price tag.

As Foreign Policy magazine put it: "On Capitol Hill, it’s been called
“a joke,” a “total failure,” and “a bigger disaster than I could have
ever imagined.” And now we have another name for it: dead."

A new program has been announced. The new program will provide air
support and basic equipment and training to vetted opposition group
leaders who are already fighting ISIS and who are committed to
fighting ONLY ISIS, and not the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad.

Brett McGurk, whose title is "White House deputy envoy to the Global
Coalition to Counter Islamic State," described the new program as
follows:

<QUOTE>"Is it best to take those guys out and put them
through training programs for many weeks, or to keep them on the
line fighting and to give them additional enablers and support? I
think the latter is the right answer, and that's what we're going
to be doing."<END QUOTE>

According to Secretary of Defense Ash Carter: "I remain convinced that
a lasting defeat of ISIL in Syria will depend in part on the success
of local, motivated and capable ground forces. I believe the changes
we are instituting today will, over time, increase the combat power of
counter-ISIL forces in Syria and ultimately help our campaign achieve
a lasting defeat of ISIL."

The old policy was criticized and mocked from the day it was announced
last year. The new policy is receiving similar treatment. A NY Times
editorial titled "An Incoherent Syria War Strategy" points out that
the strategy of finding and arming rebel groups that want to fight
ISIS but who are going to be forbidden from fighting the al-Assad
regime makes no sense:

<QUOTE>"The initial plan was dubious. The new one is
hallucinatory, and it is being rolled out as the war enters a more
perilous phase now that Russia has significantly stepped up its
military support of Mr. Assad’s forces.

There is no reason to believe that the United States will suddenly
be successful in finding rebel groups that share its narrow goal
of weakening the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, but
not joining the effort to topple Mr. Assad. Washington’s
experience in Syria and other recent wars shows that proxy
fighters are usually fickle and that weapons thrust into a war
with no real oversight often end up having disastrous
effects."<END QUOTE>

This harsh criticism from a newspaper that regularly slobbers over
Obama symbolizes how much even the left-wing mainstream media, not to
mention foreign media throughout the Mideast, now views the Obama
administration as weak and rudderless, lurching from one policy to the
next. (As another example, it had been widely expected that Secretary
of State John Kerry would win this year's Nobel Peace Prize for the
Iran nuclear deal, but even the loony Norwegians have lost faith.)
VOA and NY Times

****
**** Obama administration may be forced into greater military role
****

I've written many times about the Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of
1947, which made America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better to
have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it
slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. Every
president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and
including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to
repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a
policeman.

Call it Kismet or Karma or God's Will (or call it an unstoppable
generational trend), but America does have an exceptional role in the
world, and repudiating that role does not end it. Obama's policy of
apologizing for America has held sway for over six years, but now
powerful political pressures are growing to force a change. Those
forces are being driven by massive shifts in public attitudes towards
Obama, both in the US and abroad, as reflected in worldwide criticism
of him in the media as a weak president.

According to the left-leaning Washington Post:

<QUOTE>"Russia’s military moves in Syria are fundamentally
changing the face of the country’s civil war, putting President
Bashar al-Assad back on his feet, and may complicate the Obama
administration’s plans to expand its air operations against the
Islamic State. ...

But others within the administration, and many outside experts,
are increasingly worried that if President Obama does not take
decisive action — such as quickly moving to claim the airspace
over northwestern Syria and the Turkish border, where Russian jets
are already operating — it is the United States that will suffer
significant damage to both its reputation and its foreign policy
and counterterrorism goals. ...

The current internal administration debate is largely the same one
that has kept the administration out of significant intervention
in Syria’s civil war for the past four years. On one side,
Russia’s involvement has strengthened the winning argument that
the United States should avoid direct involvement in yet another
Middle East conflict and should continue directing its resources
toward countering forces such as the Islamic State that pose a
direct threat to U.S. national security.

On the other side, the argument is that it makes no strategic
sense for the United States to concede Russian dominance of the
situation: If Russia succeeds in keeping Assad in power, the
problems in the West caused by both the Syrian war and militant
expansion will only get worse."<END QUOTE>

The article describes two sides of the debate whether to intervene in
Syria, but does not draw the obvious conclusion that the weight of
political opinion is moving sharply towards the side of some kind of
intervention -- although those that say that "it makes no strategic
sense ... to concede Russian dominance" do not agree on what steps
should be taken to avoid conceding.

The left-leaning Brookings Institution makes the claim that
intervention in Syria is costing Russia enormously, and so "For the
United States, avoiding the temptation to over-react is still the key
guideline."

But the article then goes on to describe problems with doing nothing,
and even conclude:

<QUOTE>"Finally, the United States and its allies could
deliver a series of airstrikes on the Hezbollah bands around
Damascus. That would be less confrontational vis-à-vis Russia than
hitting Assad’s forces. Hezbollah has already suffered losses in
the Syrian war and is not particularly motivated to stand with
Assad to the bitter end, away from own home-ground in
Lebanon. (Israel would appreciate such punishment,
too.)"<END QUOTE>

I almost can't believe my eyes reading this recommendation. American
warplanes around Damascus would almost certainly come into contact
with Russian warplanes, and even if they didn't, bombing al-Assad's
close ally Hezbollah could be the trigger that sets off a wider war in
this generational Crisis era.

Policy can sometimes act like a rubber band that be stretched in one
direction so far that when it's released, it snaps back in the other
direction violently. After six years of constantly apologizing for
America, the pressure is on President Obama to do something different.
Brookings advises Obama about "avoiding the temptation to over-react,"
but Obama may be politically forced to decide that with his previous
policies so widely criticized and mocked, he has to take some step to
prove to the world that he's a tough leader after all, and he may have
to over-react, because no half-measure will provide the proof he
needs. Washington Post and Brookings Institution


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, West Bank, Gaza,
Ismail Haniyeh, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Brett McGurk, Ash Carter, John Kerry,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, Brookings Institution

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*** 11-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey's terror attack triggers vitriolic political finger-pointing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive terror attack in Ankara called worst in Turkey's history
• Kurdish politicians in Turkey blame Erdogan government for Ankara terror attack

****
**** Massive terror attack in Ankara called worst in Turkey's history
****


Security forces surrounded by dead bodies on Saturday in Ankara (Getty)

Almost 100 people were killed, and hundreds more injured, from two
terrorist explosions at a "peace" rally Turkey's capital city Ankara
on Saturday. No one has claimed responsibility, but it's believed
that the explosions came from two suicide bombers.

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared a three-day national mourning
period, and named four outlawed organizations that may have been
responsible for the attack:

• The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
• The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
• The leftist Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front
  (DHKP-C)
• The leftist Marxist-Leninist Communist Party (MLKP).

The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, lost seats in the June 7 parliamentary election,
stripping it of its parliamentary majority for the first time since
2002, and forcing it to govern in a coalition. Erdogan called a new
election for November 1, in the hope of regaining the majority, but
polls indicate that he won't succeed. Today's Zaman (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey)

****
**** Kurdish politicians in Turkey blame Erdogan government for Ankara terror attack
****

Leaders of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) are
bitterly blaming the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Saturday's terror attack in Ankara.

Selahattin Demirtas, co-head of the HDP, says that whether Erdogan
personally ordered the attack or not, the government security forces
were responsible, and links this attack to the scheduled elections on
November 1.

On June 5, two days before the general elections, four people died in
a twin bomb attack on a HDP rally in Diyarbakir. Then, on July 20,
a terrorist attack blamed on ISIS in the city of attack on Suruç
killed 33 people, mostly young
pro-Kurdish activists. After that, Turkey's government declared war
on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country"
)

According to Demirtas, the Erdogan government has made no attempt to
find the perpetrators of those two previous terror attacks. He is
particularly critical of statements by Davutoglu and Erdogan
suggesting that the PKK was responsible for Saturday's attack or the
two previous ones.

<QUOTE>"There is nobody who has been designated as
‘responsible’ around. There is no effective investigation. There
will be none regarding today's attack either. This is not an
attack against unity of our state and nation. This is an attack by
our nation against our people. ...

That is to say that they are very pleased. They are pleased of the
current picture. This is not an attack against unity of our state
and the nation. This is an attack by our state against our
people. ...

There are AKP executives who have openly said that we have bombed
ourselves. We are a party who defend living together, but there is
no place to such treacherous ones like you in that life
together."<END QUOTE>

For the most part, Turkey's opposition parties are supporting the
Erdogan government's attempts to unify the country in the face of
these terrorist bombings, but HDP is the exception. Prime minister
Davutoglu has already said that he wants to consult with opposition
parties, but he's refusing any contact with HDP officials after
Demirtas's statement slamming the government for the attack.

Turkey's politics between nationalist politicians led by Erdogan and
left-wing Kurdish politicians have already become extremely vitriolic,
particularly since the attack on Suruç and Erdogan's declaration of
war on the PKK.

The rapidly escalating conflict between PKK terrorists and Turkish
security forces has triggered violence across Turkey. A number of
anti-terror marches in Turkey turned violent when supporters of the
pro-government Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) attacked the
headquarters and local offices of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic
Party (HDP). In one case, dozens of demonstrators pelted the HDP
headquarters in Ankara with stones, while in another city, an angry
mob of 150 people set fire to four shops owned by Kurdish businessmen.

There are concerns that Turkey is descending into chaos and possibly
civil war, and Saturday's bombing in Ankara increases those concerns.
Hurriyet (Turkey) and Independent (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ankara, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds,
Justice and Development Party, AKP, Ankara, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Suruç, Diyarbakir, Selahattin Demirtas, Peoples' Democratic Party, HDP,
Nationalist Movement Party, MHP

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