*** 12-Oct-15 World View -- India Hindus attack Muslims as cow slaughter incidents surge

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India Muslims attacked and lynched by Hindus over cow slaughter
• Cow slaughter cases surging in India's state of Uttar Pradesh
• Garry Kasparov's analysis of Vladimir Putin's strategy in Syria

****
**** India Muslims attacked and lynched by Hindus over cow slaughter
****


Protesters in 2010 supporting a law making cow slaughter illegal. Placard says, 'Cow is universal mother' (AP)

Two people were arrested on Saturday after Hindu demonstrators
protesting cow slaughter set police jeeps on fire and damaged several
other vehicles, following the allegation of a Muslim slaughtering a
cow in the village of Mainpuri in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.

In another incident in Uttar Pradesh, a mob of 500 people armed with
bambo sticks and iron rods thrashed two Muslims suspected of
slaughtering a cow and set fire to some dozen Muslim-owned shops,
before police dispersed the mob using tear gas.

Two weeks ago, a Muslim in the nearby village of Dadri was lynched by
a Hindu mob on allegations that he ate beef.

The cow is considered a sacred animal in the Hindu religion, and
eating beef is forbidden. Not surprisingly, this means that cow
slaughter is one more reason for conflict between Muslims and Hindus,
and has been for centuries.

According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"Cows are not slaughtered across the Islamic world,
but the reason cows are slaughtered mostly in the Indian
Subcontinent is because Indian Islamists introduced the practice
of cow slaughter here as a challenge to the Hindu religious
practice of worshiping cows."<END QUOTE>

Cow slaughter is illegal in many parts of India, and so Muslims
eating beef can be subject to arrest, or the target of protests
by Hindus.

Cow slaughter has also spread to Pakistan, for a similar reason,
according to another analyst:

<QUOTE>"In the current areas [that constitute] Pakistan, cows
were not sacrificed in large numbers [before Pakistan was created
in 1947]. When the Mohajirs [Indian Muslim immigrants] came to
Pakistan after the Partition, they also brought the tradition of
cow slaughter along with them. It was under the impact of the
immigrant Islamic organizations such as Jamaat-e-Islami and the
people arriving from there [i.e. from the regions that remained a
part of India]... that a tradition of sacrificing the cow became
strong..."<END QUOTE>

New Delhi Television and MEMRI and
AFP and MEMRI

****
**** Cow slaughter cases surging in India's state of Uttar Pradesh
****

The rioting and lynching described above occurred in villages
near New Delhi in India's northern state of Uttar Pradesh (UP).

In 2015, the number of cases under the law prohibiting cow slaughter
has doubled this year from 2011. Hindu activists have been
campaigning against "illegal slaughter houses," especially in western
UP. "We have got illegal slaughter houses in eastern UP closed, but
there are several functioning in the west. Beef is easily available in
cities like Aligarh and Meerut. Our activists have already been told
to keep an eye. Recently, they stopped a vehicle of animal traffickers
in Ghaziabad."

According to another Hindu activist:

<QUOTE>"We have a goal of getting cow slaughter banned and
getting cow the status of national animal. Our followers paint
slogans to make people aware of the atrocities on cow. One slogan
is kati gai kare pukaar, bandh karo yeh atyachar (cows being
slaughtered plead an end to this atrocity). Another is Modiji
vaada nibhao, gau mata ki jaan bachao (Modiji [Indian prime
minister Narendra Modi], fulfil your promise, save the life of
mother cow).

There is renewed faith in our campaign, so a large number of
people are getting attached. This is the first time that everyone
is talking about it. ...

We are not in favour of using force [as happened in Dadri]. Those
who eat meat have bad habits like infants who eat soil. We have to
help them get rid of this habit with persuasion, not by beating
them or beating ourselves."<END QUOTE>

Although cow slaughter is an issue in other parts of India, the issue
in Uttar Pradesh may be serving as a proxy for anger against the
government, in an India state that's desperately poor with
a government that desperately corrupt.

As an example, the Uttar Pradesh government placed an advertisement
for 368 jobs as peons -- low-level jobs such as serving tea. A
staggering 2.32 million applied for these 368 jobs, including 25,000
applicants that had Masters degrees. Indian Express and Hindustan Times

****
**** Garry Kasparov's analysis of Vladimir Putin's strategy in Syria
****

Those who, like me, have been into chess in the past are familiar with
the name Garry Kasparov as a former world chess champion during the
days of the Soviet Union. In recent years, Kasparov has become highly
visible political opponent of Russia's president Vladimir Putin. He
appeared Paul Gigot's Wall Street Journal report on Fox News, and gave
his analysis of Putin's strategy in Syria.

He said that Putin had expected east Ukraine to be an easy victory,
but it turned out to be much harder than expected because there were
too many Russians in Ukraine who sided with the Ukraine government:

<QUOTE>"Ukraine proved to be much tougher than he expected.
He thought ethnic Russians in southeast Ukraine would embrace
Russian gangs. ... Most of them subscribe to Ukraine army and we
saw in east Ukraine was more or less a civil war between
pro-European Russians that made the majority between the army and
Putin force. So too much for Putin to push forward."<END QUOTE>

Rather than continue with Ukraine, Putin saw a vacuum in Syria that
Russia could fill:

<QUOTE>"[O]ne of the side effects of Putin's attacks in Syria
and his support for Bashar al Assad, of his regime, is a way for
refugees. There are hundreds of thousands, now, potentially,
millions of refugees fleeing into Europe. ... With more refugees
there, you can see the ultra-right wing Nationalist parties
gaining ground, and they are all allies of Vladimir Putin and
eventually, when in March of 2016, the E.U. has to decide on sort
of sanctions, whether to prolong them or to leave them, Putin
expects the allies in Europe will help him to get rid of
sanctions."<END QUOTE>

So, Putin hopes to use the millions of refugees to blackmail Europe
into lifting sanctions. But there's a second objective in Syria as
well:

<QUOTE>"But also there's still hopes that Russian presence
there and combine assault with Russian, Iranians, Assad forces
could create sort of a major war in the Middle East. Because for
Putin to influence oil prices which are vital for [Russia's
economy]. ... He must put oil prices up because with $50 a
barrel, maybe for two years, but Russian economy will go [down].
...

Dictators, strong, successful dictators, they do not play games.
It's all about survival. Putin thinks one or maximum two moves
ahead. 'I have to survive today. I have to win this battle.
We'll see what happens the next day.'

That's why he needs instability because in the situation in which
instable, without rules, so he always dominated the game because
he doesn't have to go to Congress, the parliament, he doesn't care
about public opinions. He has an advantage of moving
swiftly."<END QUOTE>

I've written several times that Putin's actions in Syria are insane
because they're going to trigger a war. According to Kasparov, Putin
actually wants to trigger "some sort of major war in the Mideast," in
order to cause oil prices to rise, saving Russia's economy.

To summarize, Putin's actions in Syria have two objectives, according
to Kasparov: Create millions more Syria refugees in order to weaken
Europe; and trigger a major war to raise oil prices.

Putin undoubted believes that any war that Russia triggers can be
contained, just as previous Mideast wars have been contained. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what Putin doesn't
understand is that as the world goes deeper into a generational Crisis
era, as the few remaining survivors of World War II die off, as the
horrors of WW II are no longer remembered, the chances of "containing"
a new Mideast war become smaller and smaller. The next Mideast war
could finally be the one that isn't "contained."

Kasparov concluded that Putin may not stop with Syria. Putin
perceives Obama as being very weak, and knows that the next
administration could be very different, so he'll "try to gain maximum
ground as long as Obama is in office."

Putin's next move could be in another direction:

<QUOTE>"I would watch another destination. Look at Putin's
preferences, oil, deep water ports, chaos, instability, Benghazi.
... The way Putin thinks, I think Benghazi [Libya] is probably one
of the spots on the map that is just bringing his
attention."<END QUOTE>

Once again, there would be two objectives in intervening in Libya:
Take control of Libya's oil exports, and generate another flow of
refugees into Europe. Fox News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, cow slaughter, Uttar Pradesh,
Mainpuri, Dadri, New Delhi, Pakistan, Jamaat-e-Islami, Mohajirs,
Russia, Garry Kasparov, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Syria,
European Union, Benghazi, Libya

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*** 13-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey is seen as increasingly unstable after Ankara massacre

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey blames ISIS for Saturday's massacre as anti-government anger grows
• Turkey is seen as increasingly unstable after massacre

****
**** Turkey blames ISIS for Saturday's massacre as anti-government anger grows
****


Anti-government protesters carry placards reading, 'The Murderous State'

Turkey is in a state of shock over Saturday's massive terrorist attack
at a "peace rally" in the capital city Ankara that killed 97 people
and injured hundreds more. It's being referred to as the worst
terrorist massacre in Turkey's history, or as "Turkey's 9/11."

Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday named the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) as the principal suspect
in the massacre. According to Davutoglu:

<QUOTE>"From the first moment on, we have viewed Daesh [ISIS]
as being responsible, considering how the incident
happened."<END QUOTE>

Well, that isn't exactly true. From the first moment on, Davutoglu
actually said that he viewed ISIS to be one of four possible
perpetrators, the principal other one being the Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK). And this claim infuriated Kurds, since the "peace rally"
was a gathering of Kurdish activists. ( "11-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey's terror attack triggers vitriolic political finger-pointing"
)

Instead of unifying Turkey's people behind the government to find the
perpetrators, the Turkish people are becoming more polarized,
frustrated and angry, with many people blaming the government of
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Those who blame the government split into several categories:

• Most simply say that Saturday's Kurdish peace rally was at
  risk, and yet the Erdogan government took no precautions to protect
  the rally -- as it does with pro-government rallies.
  
• Some are much darker, blaming Erdogan for giving the order to bomb
  the Kurdish peace rally, in order to blame the Kurds and get
  an excuse to order military action against Kurdish targets in
  southeastern Turkey.
  
• Some blame Erdogan for inciting nationalism and fomenting violence
  between Kurds and Turkish security forces, in order to give Erdogan an
  advantage in the November 1 elections.
  
• Some blame Erdogan giving permission for US-led coalition air
  strikes to be launched from Turkey's Incirlik Air Base.
  
• Some blame Erdogan for being too tolerant of ISIS, and revive old
  accusations that Erdogan funded ISIS to fight the regime of Syria's
  president Bashar al-Assad.

Today's Zaman (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Today's Zaman

****
**** Turkey is seen as increasingly unstable after massacre
****

Four or five years ago, Turkey appeared to be a pillar of strength,
with enormous influence throughout the Mideast. There had been
occasional terrorist attacks by the PKK, but even that seemed a thing
of the past when Turkey's government and the PKK agreed to a ceasefire
and a "peace process" in 2013.

However, things changed abruptly, following the July 20 terrorist attack in the city of attack on Suruç
killing 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish activists. After
that, the ceasefire agreement broke down, and Erdogan declared war on
the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country"
)

Turkey has been suffering a spiral of violence. Saturday's terrorist
attack took place in Ankara, near government buildings, presumably the
safest place in Turkey. People are wondering where the terrorists
will strike next. The economy is suffering, tourism is falling, and
the lira currency is losing value.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its parliamentary
majority in the June 7 parliamentary election for the first time since
2002, after the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) got 12% of the
vote, surpassing a 10% threshold for the first time, giving the party
a significant representation in the parliament.

In a move that now appears to be ill-fated, Erdogan called for new
parliamentary elections on November 1, hoping to regain the seats
that his party had lost to the Kurds. However, polls indicate
that the HDP may actually do better on November 1 than it
did on June 7, and there are concerns that the splintered
government will not be able to govern effectively.

There are fears that the polarization between the government and the
PKK will turn into a civil war. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said
on Monday, "These attacks won't turn Turkey into a Syria," but that's
exactly what many people are afraid of. CBS News and Today's Zaman

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ankara, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds,
Justice and Development Party, AKP, Ankara, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Suruç, Peoples' Democratic Party, HDP, Incirlik Air Base

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*** 14-Oct-15 World View -- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine
• Russia launches its massive disinformation campaign
• 'Lone wolf' violence by 'Oslo generation' of Palestinians grows
• Android apps: Xenakis MathGame and Professional Debt Calculator

****
**** Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine
****


Reconstructed wreckage of the MH17 airplane from the report by the Dutch Safety Board (Reuters)

We actually already know that Russians in East Ukraine shot down
Malaysian Airlines flight 17 when it was flying overhead last year in
July 2014. The way we know is that immediately after the MH17
airliner was shot down last year, Igor Strelkov, the commander of the
Russian invasion forces in east Ukraine, tweeted the following to brag
about the kill:

<QUOTE>"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city
Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our
sky."<END QUOTE>

Later, when Strelkov learned that he had shot down a passenger plane,
not a military plane, the tweet was taken down, but by then it was too
late. Strelkov had already admitted about shooting down the plane --
actually bragged about it.

Tuesday's report by the Dutch Safety Board did not assign blame to the
Russians because they were not allowed to do so. However, the current
report concludes that the MH17 was shot down by a Russian-built Buk
surface-to-air missile system launched from the region of East Ukraine
occupied by Russian separatists.

The destruction of flight MH17 is one of the worst air disasters for
decades. The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well above the range of
any ordinary ground-to-air missiles. An extremely sophisticated
missile like the Buk was required to strike a plane flying at that
altitude. The Safety Board researchers firmly identified the Buk
missile from painted missile fragments embedded in the bodies of the
passengers and crew. There were 298 mostly Dutch passengers and crew
on board, including many women and children, when MH17 was shot out of
the sky.

There is a further forensic investigation in progress by Dutch
prosecutors to identify the perpetrators and bring them to justice --
something that the Russians will certainly not permit. That report is
due early next year. Reuters and NBC News

****
**** Russia launches its massive disinformation campaign
****

In the months after flight MH17 was shot out of the sky, the Russians
issued one alternative explanation after another, including the
following:

• The airplane was not shot down at all, but fell out of the sky
  by itself;
• A bomb exploded aboard the airplane;
• The airplane was struck by a meteor;
• The airplane was hit by a Ukrainian missile fired from the
  ground;
• A Ukrainian air force fighter pursued and then attacked the
  plane;
• The U.S. shot down the plane in order to damage Russia's
  reputation;
• The U.S. shot down the plane in order to embarrass Putin;
• No living people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot
  from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting
  corpses."

The investigation by the Dutch Safety Board has determined that MH17
was shot down by a Russian-built Buk missile, eliminating all the
above explanations.

So recently the Russians have been offering a brand-new excuse: Yes,
it was a Buk missile, but it was an old style Buk missile that Russia
doesn't use any more, but which Ukraine has in its inventory.

Whether this brand new excuse will stand up to further investigation
remains to be seen, but what we can be sure of is that the Russians
will revive their massive disinformation campaign, led by Russia's
president Vladimir Putin.

Let's recall what happened last year with the Russian invasion of
Ukraine:

• Putin said that there were no Russian troops in Crimea, as
  Russian troops were invading Crimea, torturing, shooting and jailing
  the Tatars and any opposition figures in Crimea. Russia held a
  referendum, but anyone opposing the referendum could be tortured and
  jailed. Putin "won" the referendum.
  
• Later, Putin announced that Russia would not annex Crimea. A few
  days later, Russia annexed Crimea.
  
• Putin gave a television interview earlier this year in which he
  bragged about fooling the West by lying about Russia's invasion of Crimea,
  saying that he ordered the
  invasion and annexation of Crimea weeks before it occurred, during a
  period of time when he repeatedly lied about the presence of Russian
  troops and about his intentions.
  
• Putin changed his story about no Russian troops in East Ukraine by
  saying that they were "volunteers." This is another deceit. America
  has an "all-volunteer army," so any American troops overseas are
  "volunteers." The same is true for Russian "volunteers," who are
  regular army troops ordered to Ukraine.

In addition to all that, we can expect a major resurgence of Putin's army of paid Russian internet trolls,
whose job was to harass people like me who describe what
was really going on. I've had the honor of being targeted by no less
than three of the trolls on different web sites in one week, and I've
had frequent attacks by Russian trolls since then.

As the Roman lawyers would say, "Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus"
(false in one thing, false in everything).

So whatever excuse or explanation the Russians supply for why a
Russian-built Buk missile blew a passenger airplane out of the sky,
you can be sure that it's a lie, particularly since we already know
from Igor Strelkov's first tweet bragging about the strike: "We
warned, don't fly in our sky." Russia Today and BBC

****
**** 'Lone wolf' violence by 'Oslo generation' of Palestinians grows
****

We've been reporting deadly violence by Palestinian youth targeting
Israelis in Jerusalem, and it continues to grow, with Tuesday being
the worst day of violence since the start of the current escalation in
tensions.

Two Palestinians armed with a knife and a gun killed two Israelis and
injuring three more on a Jerusalem bus. Almost simultaneously, an
assailant rammed a car at speed into a bus stop before stabbing
bystanders, killing one and injuring two others.

These are being referred to as "lone wolf attacks" (as opposed to a
"third intifada"), because there is no support from Palestinian
Authority officials or organized militias.

The lone wolf attacks are being perpetrated by youth in their teens or
early twenties, the so-called "Oslo generation," because they grew up
after the 1993 Oslo accords, and saw that nothing had changed.

There were violent clashes in Bethlehem. Some 20,000 Israeli Arabs
protested against the policies of Israel's government in the northern
city of Sakhnin. Some rocks were thrown at Israeli soldiers, but the
protests were otherwise peaceful. Guardian (London) and Arab News (Riyadh) and
Middle East Eye

****
**** Android apps: Xenakis MathGame and Professional Debt Calculator
****

If you have an Android phone or tablet, then try out the two
apps that I developed:

"Xenakis Professional Debt Calculator," a sophisticated financial
application. The app implements the Federal Reserve Truth in Lending
Law (Regulation Z) to analyze complex debt transactions. This app
is not fully implemented yet.

"Xenakis MathGame," which tests math skills by presenting graded math
problems. Warning: If you like math then you'll like this game,
but if you don't like math then you'll hate this game.

These apps are free, no ads, no problems. I developed them for fun,
and to learn new skills. Let me know how you like them, and to
suggest improvements. http://www.prodebtcalc.com


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Malaysia Airlines flight 17, MH17,
Russia, Igor Strelkov, Vladimir Putin, Dutch Safety Board,
Crimea, Tatars, Russian trolls, Falsus in unum - falsus in omnibus,
Palestinian Authority, Israel, Oslo generation,
Xenakis MathGame, Xenakis Professional Debt Calculator

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Does anyone still believe anything that comes out of Putin's mouth these days? These developments regarding MH17 isn't really news, the Russian tweets were known immediately after the fact. Also the videotaped footage of the BUK missiles being trucked out of the Ukraine over the border back into Russia. By not admitting Russian responsibility, Putin and the Russians just look even worse to the international community.

*** 15-Oct-15 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Myanmar (Burma) signs partial, but not nationwide, peace agreement
• Myanmar (Burma) peace agreements since 1989
• Burma's brutal problems with the Rohingya and Kokang continue

****
**** Myanmar (Burma) signs partial, but not nationwide, peace agreement
****


Rebel soldiers of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) gather at a military base in Kokang region in March (Reuters)

On Thursday, Myanmar's government will sign a peace agreement with
some of its armed ethnic groups. The agreement has been under
negotiation since 2011.

However, Myanmar's government failed to convince all 15 of its armed
ethnic groups to sign the peace agreement. Instead, only seven of the
ethnic armies will sign the agreement on Thursday, in a lavish signing
ceremony in Naypyitaw, the nation's capital city, to be attended by
foreign diplomats. However, eight of ethnic armies have refused to
sign.

Even though the peace agreement is clearly flawed, it's being touted
with the usual political rhetoric of "bringing hope" that the entire
country will soon be "at peace."

Among those that will be signing is the Karen National Union (KNU),
Myanmar's oldest armed group. The KNU has fought one of the world's
longest running conflicts with the Myanmar military spanning nearly 70
years. The KNU said in a statement that it hoped the ceasefire would
bring, "the termination of civil war and the building of genuine
peace."

Two other ethnic armies, the Shan and the Kachin, are still fighting
Myanmar's army, and do not wish to engage in a peace process.

The failure to include all 15 ethnic armies is a blow to President
Thein Sein, who had made a nationwide ceasefire a key promise after
taking power in 2011. He had wanted the nationwide ceasefire to be in
place prior to the next election, to be held next month on November 8.
Reuters and Bangkok Post

****
**** Myanmar (Burma) peace agreements since 1989
****

This is not the first ceasefire agreement that the government has
signed. In fact, according to the International Crisis Group, Burma
started signing peace agreements with ethnic armies in 1989, as an
intended process of national reconciliation, after the civil war of
the 1950s. Needless to say, some of these peace agreements didn't
last long, and sometimes the same ethnic army had to sign peace
agreements more than once.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this situation with
multiple peace agreements is a complex example of something that I've
discussed a number of times before with respect to other countries.

Among generational crisis wars, an external war is fundamentally
different than an internal civil war between two ethnic groups. If
two ethnic groups have lived together in peace for decades, have
intermarried and worked together, and then there's a civil war where
one of these ethnic groups tortures, massacres and slaughters their
next-door neighbors in the other ethnic group, then the outcome will
be fundamentally different than if the same torture and slaughter is
rendered by an external group. In either case, the country will spend
the Recovery Era setting up rules and institutions designed to prevent
any such war from occurring again. But in one case, the country will
enter the Awakening era unified, except for generational political
differences, and in the other case, the country will be increasingly
torn along the same ethnic fault line.

One path that the Recovery Era can take is that the leader of one
ethnic group decides that the only way to prevent a new civil war is
for him to stay in power, and to respond to peaceful anti-government
demonstrations by conducting massive bloody genocide, torture and
slaughter of the other ethnic group, in order to maintain the peace.
(I assume, Dear Reader, that you've grasped the irony of the last
sentence.) That appears to be what Robert Mugabe has been doing in
Zimbabwe, what Bashar al-Assad has been doing in Syria, and what
Pierre Nkurunziza has begun to do in Burundi.

When there's a generational crisis civil war between two ethnic
groups, the groups stop fighting with each other out of exhaustion
when the war ends with a climax, and the country enters a Recovery
Era. Starting around 20 years later, the younger generations that
grew up after the war begin to make themselves felt, and they begin
clashing with each other or with the government out of anger left over
from the civil war. This has been happening for several years now in
Thailand, in clashes between the "yellow shirt" Chinese descendants
and the "red shirt" indigenous Thais. What happens is that each clash
ends with some kind of peace arrangement that lasts until the next
clash begins. This alternation between clashes and peace continues
for decades, with each clash worse than the previous one, until
there's a new full-scale crisis civil war decades later.

So all this is going on in Burma (Myanmar) as well. Burma's last
generational crisis wars (1948-58) was extremely bloody and violent,
involving multiple civil wars between ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
from 2007, for a
generational history of Burma.)

So instead of just two ethnic groups alternating between clashes and
peace agreements, Burma has multiple peace agreements with different
ethnic armies, leading to an extremely complex set of interlocking
situations.

The hope that the current round of peace agreements will lead to a
permanent national peace is a vain hope. Actually, just the opposite
is happening. For each of the ethnic armies signing the agreement,
this is just one temporary peace agreement until the next clash
begins. This can go on for decades, with each clash worse than the
previous one, until a new full-scale crisis civil war begins.
International Crisis Group

****
**** Burma's brutal problems with the Rohingya and Kokang continue
****

In addition to an ongoing conflict in Kachin and Shan states, Burma
(Myanmar) has continuing problems with Rohingya and Kokang.

We've reported several times earlier this year of the plight of the
6,000-8,000 Rohingya migrants who were stranded in vastly overcrowded boats in the Andaman Sea
off the
coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar (Burma) had lived there for generations
are being slaughtered and driven from their homes by Buddhists led by
Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. The Rohingyas, described by the United
Nations as "the most persecuted ethnic group in the world," are not
even recognized as Rohingyas by Burma's government, who refer to them
as Bangladeshis. Because of the Buddhist violence, they've been
fleeing Burma into the Bay of Bengal in small boats, heading south and
hoping to land in Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia. Instead, these
countries refuse to let them land on their soil, and they're stranded
at sea.

For the past fifty years, under successive military juntas, Myanmar
has followed a strategic project of Burmanization, i.e. the promotion
of a single religion (Buddhism), language (Burmese) and culture
(Burman). At its mildest, this is a policy of cultural assimilation.
At its worst, it has verged on – and arguably pursued – ethnic
cleansing - of the Rohingyas, and other ethnic minorities.

We reported earlier this year that Burma's president Thein Sein on
Tuesday had to a state of emergency and imposed martial law in the
Kokang Special Region of Burma, on the border with China. ( "20-Feb-15 World View -- Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)"
)

The Kokang people are ethnic Chinese who even use a Chinese phone
network and spend Chinese money in this region. In 1989, Burma's
government signed a peace agreement with the Kokang, but there's been
fighting five times since then. In 2009, an anti-drug crackdown by
Burma's army forced 30,000 Kokang to flee across the border into
China, where they were put into refugee camps.

February's clashes have mostly ended, and there's a tense peace
prevailing in the Kokang Special Region. The Diplomat and The Nation (Thailand) and Frontier Myanmar


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma,
Karen National Union, KNU, Shan, Kachin,
Thein Sein, Rohingya, Kokang, China, Ashin Wirathu

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*** 16-Oct-15 World View -- China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Obama reverses himself on Afghanistan troop withdrawal
• The 'surge' strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan
• China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation

****
**** President Obama reverses himself on Afghanistan troop withdrawal
****


Afghan soldiers, left, walk past a U.S. Army soldier in a military base in 2012 (AP)

President Barack Obama has done an about-face on the issue of troop
withdrawal from Afghanistan, and now says that he will leave a force
of 5,500 soldiers in Afghanistan on a continuing basis, "to focus on
training Afghans and counterterrorism operations."

According to several analysts, Obama was forced into this by the
surprise victory of the Taliban in capturing the city of Kunduz in
norther Afghanistan, near the border with Tajikistan. ( "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia"
)

In his speech, Obama said:

<QUOTE>"As you are well aware, I do not support the idea of
endless war, and I have repeatedly argued against marching into
open-ended military conflicts that do not serve our core security
interests."<END QUOTE>

This is indeed Obama's philosophy, but it completely disregards
America's values and America's role in the world. It's like saying
that New York City shouldn't have a police force since crime is
endless. The role of the police is to protect the city from crime
when it occurs. If you withdraw the police from New York City, then
crime will be even more rampant than it is now.

I've written many times about the Truman Doctrine,
from President Harry Truman in 1947, which made
America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better
to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let
it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II.
The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask
not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman
Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first
president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the
world without a policeman.

Obama's repudiation of the Truman Doctrine has been a disaster for the
world, since the world no longer has a policeman. This is the concept
that Obama completely fails to grasp, which is why the Obama
administration has suffered one foreign policy disaster after another.
Now, with Afghanistan in crisis, the administration is heading into a
new disaster. White House and Washington Post

****
**** The 'surge' strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan
****

In 2007, Senator Barack Obama was extremely contemptuous of the Iraq
war and President George Bush's "surge" strategy for ending it. The
irony is that after Bush's surge strategy was successful, and Obama
was elected president, Obama's Afghan war strategy was modeled after
Bush's successful "surge" strategy in Iraq, something that Senator
Obama bitterly opposed before it turned out to be successful.

However, as I wrote in a Generational Dynamics analysis in 2009 in
"American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war,"
the Iraq "surge" strategy
would not work in Afghanistan.

The Iraq situation was as follows: Iraq's previous generational crisis
war was the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, in which all Sunni and Shia Iraqis
united against the common enemy, Iran. In 2007, I wrote "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)" (the best analysis of the Iraq war available
anywhere at that time), where I explained that AQI consisted of mostly
Jordanian and Saudi terrorists, but that Iraqis were only marginally
involved and were happy to get rid of these foreign terrorists.

But Afghanistan was quite different. Its previous generational crisis
war was the Afghan civil war from 1991 to 1996. There was no united
country for the "surge" to appeal to. Even worse, the Taliban
terrorists were from the same Pashtun ethnic group that was conducting
terrorist acts in Pakistan. In Iraq, the Jordanian and Saudi
terrorists were foreigners, but in Afghanistan, the Pashtun terrorists
were not.

The result is that the "surge" strategy could never work in
Afghanistan and, in fact, no strategy could work in Afghanistan as
well as the surge strategy had worked in Iraq.

****
**** China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation
****

It's been rumored for several months that the US Navy plans to send a
vessel into the South China Sea close to the man-made island chain
that China has been building, apparently to provide a platform for a
large military base. Now reports indicate that approval of the plan
may be imminent.

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues and uses
belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has
claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside
of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court
deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

To support its military activities, China has used land reclamation
projects to build a chain of man-made islands in international waters
around the Spratley Islands. The US Navy plan is simply to send a
ship within 12 miles of China's man-made islands, in order to
establish the principle that these are international waters.

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has not commented on the specific
plan, but said generally: "United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

Chinese state media claims that "The US must have known that China's
reclamation work does not contravene international law, so Washington
has no sufficient reason to stop China." However, the US Navy is not
saying anything about trying to "stop China." All the US Navy plans
is to send a vessel near the islands through international waters.

According to China state media:

<QUOTE>"Washington's ceaseless provocations and coercion can
only demonstrate that it does not intend to protect freedom of
navigation in this region, as China has clearly stated that the
right will not be impeded. What the US wants is to play rough
against China and stress its hegemony.

In this case, China mustn't tolerate rampant US violations of
China's adjacent waters and the skies over these expanding
islands. The Chinese military should be ready to launch
countermeasures according to Washington's level of provocation.

The US must have known that China's reclamation work does not
contravene international law, so Washington has no sufficient
reason to stop China. Despite the legitimacy of China's
construction work and the public good it can provide, if the US
adopts an aggressive approach, it will be a breach of China's
bottom line, and China will not sit idly by.

China has remained calm with self-restraint even in the face of
Washington's escalating provocations, but if the US encroaches on
China's core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use
force to stop it."<END QUOTE>

And so, unless either the US or China backs down, there will be a
military confrontation. I do not think that China will back down, but
it's quite possible that the Obama administration will back down.
Military Times (7-Oct) and Navy Times and Global Times (Beijing)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Kunduz, Tajikistan,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, John Kennedy, George Bush,
Barack Obama, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Al-Qaeda in Iraq,
China, South China Sea, Ash Carter

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*** 17-Oct-15 World View -- Refugee crisis: Turkey ridicules Europe as Hungary closes Croatia border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian troops may take control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan
• European Union agrees to terms in exchange for Turkey's help with refugees
• Hungary closes the border with Croatia
• Polls show British voters more willing to leave European Union
• Turkey's president Erdogan ridicules Europe over refugee crisis

****
**** Russian troops may take control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan
****


Russian soldiers at the junction of three state borders: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan (Ria Novosti)

Two weeks ago we reported "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia"
. Those repercussions
are increasingly being felt in Tajikistan, the large Central Asian
country along the northern border with Afghanistan, as Russia appears
poised to send troops to take control of the border from Tajikistan
soil.

Central Asian countries are increasingly concerned by the rise of the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and its
possible spread into southern and central Asia. Although some
formerly al-Qaeda linked groups have switched their allegiance from
al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
ISIS is not the principal threat in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Central
Asia, as it has in Syria and Iraq. Nonetheless, there seems to be a
widespread fear that the growth of ISIS has energized all Sunni
jihadist groups, including the Taliban and the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU). Russia estimates that there are about 3,000 ISIS
fighters and about 30,000 Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.

In a statement on Friday, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon
expressed concern about the rise of ISIS in the region, and called on
former Soviet republics to step up their cooperation against ISIS:

<QUOTE>"Taking into account the unstable situation in the
world, aggravating regional conflicts in the world, we have an
opportunity to discuss these problems and find solutions,
including regarding the fight against the Islamic State and other
international terrorist organizations, in the
Commonwealth."<END QUOTE>

Russia had a special unit of border guards at the
Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly
repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has a military base in
Tajikistan, but its servicemen do not participate in protecting the
country’s borders. Russia Today and Reuters and Belarus News

****
**** European Union agrees to terms in exchange for Turkey's help with refugees
****

European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Friday have agreed to
ease visa restrictions for Turkish citizens and accelerate
negotiations over Turkey's membership in the EU in exchange for
Turkey's help in slowing the flow of migrants from Iraq, Syria and
Afghanistan traveling through Turkey to reach the EU.

Turkey has requested 3 billion euros in funding to help the country
deal with the migration crisis. This was not part of the Brussels
agreement, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that it would be
considered.

Turkey's Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu was harshly critical of
the offer, calling it "unacceptable" and "insignificant." According
to Sinirlioglu:

<QUOTE>There is a financial package proposed by the EU and we
told them it is unacceptable. ...

If (the EU) delivers 3 billion euros ($3.4bn) in the initial
phase, it would be meaningful. We (Turkey) have spent $8 billion
(on refugees) and our gross national product is around $800
billion. Their (GNP) is $18 trillion.

Three billion euro versus $18 trillion (GNP) is comic but it is
much better than the $500 million that they had
delivered."<END QUOTE>

Sinirlioglu rejected any "bargaining" with the EU, saying: "The aid to
be delivered will not be for Turkey but to support Syrians in
desperation."

Merkel will visit Erdogan in Istanbul over the weekend to discuss the
refugee crisis. Irish Times and Reuters and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Hungary closes the border with Croatia
****


Migrants arrive from Turkey to Greece, through Macedonia and Serbia, then proceed from there depending on which borders are still open.

In another blow to the European Union's prized open-border Schengen
Agreement, Hungary closed the border with Croatia on Friday at
midnight.

The flood of migrants from Turkey into Europe with Germany as a
desired destination has not slowed appreciably with the approach of
winter. In fact, the flood has increased considerably in the last few
days, as word spread that there was little time left to reach Croatia
before Hungary closes the border.

Migrants have been arriving in the islands of Greece in the Aegean
Sea, where a Greek ferry transports them to the mainland. From there
they travely to Macedonia, then north through Serbia. They used to
continue on through Hungary to Austria and Germany, but Hungary closed
the border with Serbia several weeks ago. Since then, they turned
westward and traveled through Croatia and then into either Hungary or
Slovenia. Now, with Hungary's closure of the border with Croatia,
they all be directed to travel through Slovenia.

Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán criticized the agreements being
made in Brussels as inadequate, because it did nothing to stop the
flow of migrants from Greece. According to Orbán:

<QUOTE>"The agreement with Turkey has not been finalized yet,
but we have given the mandate to complete the task. Until then,
however, the Greek border should have been closed, which would
bring relief to Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary and Croatia. However,
there is no power, determination and political will to do
that."<END QUOTE>

A group of several hundred migrants who arrived minutes before the
Friday midnight deadline were the last to be allowed through. It is
now Slovenia's turn to fear being overwhelmed by migrants. Portfolio (Hungary) and Total Croatia News and BBC

****
**** Polls show British voters more willing to leave European Union
****

According to a September 28 YouGov poll, 40% of Britons now say they
want to leave the European Union ("Brexit") versus 38% who say that
they want to stay. The UK will hold a referendum on Brexit some time
in the next two years. There are two major issues that have
substantially boosted the pro-Brexit vote.

One issue has to do with the flood of migrants arriving in Europe, but
that's not the principal reason.

The principal reason has to do with Greece's financial crisis. The
crisis in Greece itself is also not the main issue on U.K. voters'
minds, but rather how Athens was treated by Germany and the rest of
the euro zone that has struck home. The negotiations painted the EU
and its biggest economic power as controlling and unforgiving.

What both issues have in common is the sovereignty. Britain's prime
minister David Cameron says that he is in favor of Britain remaining
in the EU, but only if there are some changes. Cameron has listed
four main issues:

• Removing the goal of “ever closer union” from EU treaties to
  keep Britain out of a superstate;
  
• an explicit declaration that the EU is a “multi-currency” union so
  that Britain can keep the pound currency;
  
• a return of some sovereignty to national parliaments so they can
  veto Brussels’ directives and scrap some existing rules;
  
• a restructuring of the bloc so that eurozone countries cannot
  impose their will on the noneuro countries.

The polls show that the British voters are changing their minds, and
may be deciding that whether or not the EU needs Britain, Britain no
longer needs the European Union. Market Watch and CNBC

****
**** Turkey's president Erdogan ridicules Europe over refugee crisis
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday took note of the
fact that Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel was on the list to
receive the Nobel Peace Prize:

<QUOTE>"Someone comes out and says they’ll accept 30,000,
40,000 refugees and they’re shown as a candidate for the Nobel
Prize somehow. We’ve got 2.5 million refugees and nobody
cares."<END QUOTE>

Actually, hundreds of thousands of refugees are expected to arrive in
Germany this year.

Merkel will visit Erdogan in Istanbul over the weekend to plead for
Turkey's help is slowing the flow of migrants from Iraq, Syria and
Afghanistan traveling through Turkey to reach the EU.

According to Erdogan on Friday: "If it can’t be done without Turkey,
then why don’t you let Turkey into the European Union?"

Merkel's visit is thought to be somewhat desperate because it violates
some rules. There's an election in Turkey in the next two weeks, and
Merkel's visit will appear to be an endorsement of Erdogan. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Emomali Rahmon,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, Islamic Jihad Union, IJU,
European Union, Germany, Angela Merkel, Turkey, Iraq, Syria,
Feridun Sinirlioglu, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Hungary, Croatia, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Viktor Orbán,
Britain, Brexit

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*** 18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Colorado's largest Obamacare health insurer declares bankruptcy
• Deadly Palestinian-Israeli violence continues for another day
• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive

****
**** Colorado's largest Obamacare health insurer declares bankruptcy
****


An October 2013 promotional campaign for Colorado HealthOP features hot, scantily clad girls carrying signs saying, 'Without health insurance, you're exposed.' (AP)

Colorado's biggest Obamacare health insurer announced on Friday that
it was closing, and that its 83,000 Colorado customers, 40% of all the
state's Obamacare customers, would have to find a new insurance agency
and insurance plan for 2016.

The insurer reported a net loss of $23 million last year, and
still owes $72.3 million that it had borrowed from a federal
fund designed to bail out Obamacare entities at taxpayer expense.

This is now the seventh of the 23 Obamacare health insurance co-ops to
go belly up. The others are Kentucky, Louisiana, Iowa/Nebraska,
Nevada, New York and Tennessee, and more are expected before the end
of the year, since a lot of the federal Obamacare money pots have run
out of money.

I described these co-ops in my August article, "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history", which I posted after months
of extensive research. Obamacare health insurance co-ops are almost
unbelievably hare-brained Obamacare entities, in an Obamacare scheme
that's riven with stupidity, corruption and criminality.

The co-ops were supposed to be non-profits that provided competition
to the evil corporate insurance companies. So since they had lots of
federal funding, they signed up lots of customers by charging
ridiculously prices for insurance, and running promotions like
Colorado HealthOp's 2013 sexually suggestive promotion with the
scantily clad girls shown in the photo above.

The result was that they got lots of customers, but had to pay out
$1.10 to $1.60 in benefits for each dollar they received in insurance
premiums. They could get away with this until they ran out of other
people's money - in this case federal Obamacare slush funds.

Colorado HealthOP CEO Julia Hutchins was apoplectic about the
situation, and blames it on the failure of the federal government to
provide more money:

<QUOTE>"We are astonished and disappointed by the Colorado
Division of Insurance’s decision. It is both irresponsible and
premature. Colorado HealthOP is a profitable start-up insurance
company that is in a strong financial position and, for two years,
has served the critical needs of Coloradans by enhancing
competition in the Colorado insurance market, driving down prices
in the state health insurance marketplace and offering new,
innovative choices to its more than 80,000 members throughout
Colorado."<END QUOTE>

The key is her claim about "driving down prices," which is why
the co-op is going bankrupt -- by charging less money for
premiums than it has to pay out in benefits.

After my months of research on Obamacare, I really don't believe
Hutchins anyway. I'm fairly confident that further investigation
would reveal that Hutchins doesn't give a sh-t about Colorado
customers, but only cares about her 6-digit salary, which she'll lose
when Colorado HealthOp goes down.

Meanwhile, health insurance premiums are expected to increase
substantially for 2016, with 20-50% increases being fairly common.
That's because, as usual, sick people are more likely to health
insurance than healthy people. Who would have expected that?
AP and Colorado HealthOp press release and Minn NPR News and Zero Hedge

****
**** Deadly Palestinian-Israeli violence continues for another day
****

According to Israeli authorities, Palestinians carried out five
separate stabbing attacks. According to Israeli Defense Forces, three
of the attacks occurred in Hebron, one in Jerusalem and one in
Qalandia. None of them were fatal, at least for the person stabbed;
IDF said the Palestinian assailants in four of the five incidents were
shot and killed. In at least one case, Palestinian reports claim that
a 16-year-old boy was shot and killed by Israeli soldiers without
provocation.

The Palestinian knife attacks are being called "lone wolf attacks,"
because it's not believed that they are organized in any way, or that
they're being directed by any Palestinian leader. Israeli security
officials are somewhat baffled about how to handle the knife attacks
because, unlike suicide bomber vests, a knife can easily and openly be
carried from place to place and wielded at a moment's notice. No
matter how many soldiers Israel puts on the street, there no way to
prevent a 14-18 year old Palestinian boy from stabbing an Israeli
walking down the street. NBC News and Jerusalem Post and WAFA (Palestine News & Information Agency) and CNN

****
**** Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive
****

With Syria dominating the news, the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been
getting less attention, with fewer and fewer headlines in recent
months. But the atmosphere in Jerusalem and the West Bank has become
increasing toxic and explosive, bringing it back to the headlines
again.

Multiple analysts I've heard are all saying the same things. The
Palestinian perpetrators of the knife attacks are young boys, 15-22,
in what is being called the "Oslo generation," kids born after the
1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast,
but are perceived as accomplishing nothing.

Analysts saying the same things about Oslo generation:

• The kids in the Oslo generation are contemptuous of
  both Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas
  leaders, and considers them irrelevant.
  
• The kids are extremely angry and frustrated.
  
• Palestinian politicians are not leading the Oslo generation,
  but Hamas and al-Jazeera are encouraging them.
  
• The kids are looking for a new leader, someone who will "get
  things done" with the Israelis, using whatever tactics are
  necessary.
  
• They view the Israelis as increasingly willing to use live gunfire
  to defend against rock throwing and knife attacks, and wish to
  retaliate.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I frequently
distinguish between non-crisis wars, which come from the politicians,
and crisis wars, which come from the people. It's crisis wars that
are the most visceral, bloody and genocidal, since ordinary people are
more visceral, more bloody, and more genocidal than politicians.

It's now clear that the young "Oslo generation" of Palestinians have
no fear of another visceral, bloody, genocidal war, and have no
respect for Abbas and other Palestinian leaders who want to prevent
one.

The situation on the Israel side is not as clear, but it appears to be
similar. Israel's population seems to be deeply divided between
people who want to do everything possible to keep the violence from
spiraling, and people, led by settlers, who openly talk about wiping
out all the Palestinians.

When President George Bush announced his "Roadmap to Mideast Peace" in
2003, I wrote that the Mideast peace plan would not be implemented, because Israelis and Palestinians would
be refighting the 1948 genocidal crisis war that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
In that article, I said that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and
Israeli leader Ariel Sharon hated each other but, consciously or
unconsciously, they were cooperating to prevent an all-out war,
because they both survived the bloody 1948 war and didn't want it to
happen again. And I speculated that their deaths could trigger a new
generational crisis war.

Arafat and Sharon have both been gone for several years.

Since 2006, there have been five Mideast wars, and they've all turned
out to be non-crisis wars, with operations dictated by political
leaders: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on
Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and
Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation
Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the
two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and
July-August 2014.

Arafat was succeeded by Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, another 1948 war
survivor, who has done everything he could to prevent another
genocidal war. Sharon was succeeded by Benjamin Netanyahu, born 1949,
who was not a 1948 war survivor, but is old enough to be sufficiently
aware of the war that he has also done everything possible to prevent
another genocidal war. Palestinians and Israelis, for the most part,
have been listening to Abbas and Netanyahu for years, and have
resisted anything but low-level violence.

But now we're seeing a new situation that's drastically different from
the past. Young people on the Palestinian side, and probably the
Israeli side as well, are contemptuous of their political leaders and
no longer willing to listen to them. This is exactly the kind of
situation that can spiral into a visceral, bloody, genocidal crisis
war.

However, there's one more piece missing. Even a generational crisis
war that comes "from the people" still needs a leader.

There's a concept in foundational generational theory of the "Grey
Champion," a usually older person who emerges to lead the younger
generation into war. It's pretty clear that the Palestinian Grey
Champion will not be Mahmoud Abbas, who is unalterably opposed to such
a war. However, there are plenty of younger Palestinian leaders who,
judging from public statements, would be only too happy to lead the
Palestinians into war against Israel. A similar statement might be
made on the Israeli side, but since it would be a defensive war for
Israel, Netanyahu himself could become the war leader.

How long can things go on the way they are now? Days? Months? We
can't say for sure. What we can say for sure is that the pressure
inside the pressure cooker is increasing by leaps and bounds, and that
at some point the pressure cooker will explode. The other thing that
we can say for sure is that those on either side who are encouraging
the explosion will either be killed in the war, or else will live to
regret their encouragement.

There are many people who automatically assume that the current
Israeli-Palestinian clashes will fizzle out before long. They believe
this because that's what's always happened since 1949. These people
don't understand how the world works, and this is why Generational
Dynamics does work -- once the survivors of the previous visceral,
bloody, genocidal war are gone, the generations that follow assume
that it wasn't so bad, and anyway, it can't happen again. That's why
they're always so shocked and surprised when it does happen again.
Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Obamacare, Colorado HealthOp, Julia Hutchins,
Israel, West Bank, Hebron, Jerusalem, Oslo Generation,
Oslo accords, Hamas, Al-Jazeera, Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
George Bush, Yasser Arafat, Ariel Sharon, Gaza, Hezbollah

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*** 19-Oct-15 World View -- Germany's Angela Merkel begs for refugee help from Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zambia prays for divine intervention in copper prices
• Germany's Angela Merkel begs for refugee help from Turkey

****
**** Zambia prays for divine intervention in copper prices
****


Zambia residents' hopes were raised with jubilation and shouting when a bright circle in rainbow colors appeared around the sun on Sunday (ZNBC)

By proclamation, Zambia declared Sunday to be a "National Day of
Repentance, Fasting and Prayer," in the spirit of the "One Zambia, One
Nation" motto, to pray for divine intervention to help the economy,
especially to raise prices for the country's principal export, copper.

As we wrote three weeks ago in "30-Sep-15 World View -- Copper's crashing prices cause devastating economic ripples around the world"
,
the collapse of copper prices in the last year has been a
disaster for the African country Zambia, whose economy
is heavily dependent on the price of copper. Glencore has announced
plans to suspend operations in the country, which will result in the
loss of thousands of jobs.

Swiss-based Glencore Plc, the world's third-largest copper miner,
announced plans to suspend operations in the country, which will
result in the loss of thousands of jobs in Zambia. Zambia's currency,
the kwacha, has fallen 45% against the US dollar this year.

The copper crash is being mostly blamed on the slowdown in China's
economy, along with the continuing strengthening of the US dollar
currency. Both of these trends are likely to continue.

In announcing the day of repentance, fasting and prayer,
Zambia's president Edgar Chagwa Lungu last month said:

<QUOTE>"Anxiety and distress prevail throughout the land.
Indeed, hope seems to have deserted the minds of the people. It is
almost as if the wise counsel of the learned among us are not a
match to the crisis before us."<END QUOTE>

Bishop Simon Chihana, president of the International Fellowship of
Christian Churches in Zambia said on Sunday:

<QUOTE>"God is a god of miracles and if we ask him, he will
bless us and the kwacha shall be restored to its former strength
and the prices of goods shall again go down. Let's pray to God to
have mercy on us. God has done that before and he can do it
again."<END QUOTE>

According to Zambia National Broadcasting, Zambia residents' hopes
were raised with jubilation and shouting when a bright circle in
rainbow colors appeared around the sun. Zambia Times and Telegraph (London) and Zambia National Broadcasting Company (ZNBC)

****
**** Germany's Angela Merkel begs for refugee help from Turkey
****


Merkel and Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday (Getty)

How the worm has turned!!

Two years ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was harshly criticizing
Turkey's Prime Minister (now President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan for
ordering riot police to clear central Istanbul of thousands of
peaceful protesters.

Only weeks ago, Erdogan was almost a pariah in Europe for his attacks
on a free press and for bombing Kurds. There was no talk at all of
Turkey joining the European Union, though there have been 12 years of
negotiations on the subject.

But now Angela Merkel and a desperate European Union realize that they
need Turkey more than Turkey needs them. Turkey has been transformed
from pariah to partner.

On Sunday, Merkel visited Erdogan in Istanbul, and made these
requests:

• Increase the border patrols in the Aegean Sea to prevent human
  smugglers from carrying migrants from Turkey to Greece's islands.
  
• Give work permits to Iraqis and Syrians, so that they can work in
  Turkey, and not have to travel to Europe to earn a living.
  
• Take in migrants sent back by the EU.

In exchange, Merkel is offering:

• To give up to 3 billion euros in aid -- not to Turkey, but to
  the refugees.
  
• To allow citizens of Turkey to travel to Europe without a
  visa.
  
• To push forward the negotiations for Turkey's membership in the
  EU.

According to Merkel:

<QUOTE>"I think we have used the crisis we are experiencing,
through a very disorderly and uncontrolled movement of refugees,
to achieve closer co-operation on many issues."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said:

<QUOTE>"Our priority is to prevent illegal immigration and
reduce the number of people crossing our border. In that respect
we have had very fruitful negotiations with the EU."<END QUOTE>

It was all very nice and friendly but, as with all such meetings, it
remains to be seen whether any of these hopes and requests will be
implemented.

One Turkish diplomat said, "You can’t criticize Turkey from Monday to
Friday and then on Saturday come and beg for support."

There's plenty of opposition in both countries. Many Germans,
including many in her own party, fear that the severity of the refugee
crisis may oblige Merkel to make a kind of "dirty deal" with Erdogan.

Opposition politicians in Turkey are complaining that Merkel is
essentially endorsing Erdogan in the elections coming in two weeks,
since she's visiting with Erdogan, but not with opposition candidates.
Salmon River and Guardian (London, 21-June-2013) and Zaman (Turkey) and Independent (London) and Politico (EU)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zambia, Glencore, Edgar Chagwa Lungu,
Bishop Simon Chihana,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu

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*** 20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A cynical Turkey rejects Europe's 'concentration camp' refugee proposal
• As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold

****
**** A cynical Turkey rejects Europe's 'concentration camp' refugee proposal
****


Members of a migrant family look out from a train window at a station in Cakovec, Croatia (Reuters)

As we reported yesterday,
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Turkey's President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday, asking for help with the refugee
problem. Merkel offered 3 billion euros in aid and promised to help
Turkey join the European Union if Turkey could take steps to block the
transfer of migrants leaving Turkey for Europe.

Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke on TV on Monday,
sounding offended:

<QUOTE>"We cannot accept an understanding like ‘give us the
money and Turkey is satisfied, so all migrants stay in Turkey.' I
told this to Merkel, too. No one can accept Turkey becoming a
country like a concentration camp where all refugees live. ...

The 3 billion euro IPA fund proposal is no longer on the table as
we have said we will not accept it. As for fresh resources, we're
talking about a 3 billion euro amount in the first stage. But we
don't want to fixate on this because the requirements may go up,
and the assessment for this would need to be done
annually."<END QUOTE>

Turkish editorial writers were quite cynical:

<QUOTE>"Why such haste and panic? German chancellors hardly
ever visit Turkey, despite the close relations between the two
countries. Merkel usually shows a barely hidden displeasure to
meet her Turkish counterparts and the German government is mostly
displeased with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visiting Germany,
addressing tens of thousands of supporters as if he were visiting
a country of his own. Germany under Merkel's direction and her
Christian Democratic Union party has an openly professed aim to
never let Turkey enter the EU even in the hypothetical case Turkey
fulfills all the conditions.

No country in the EU's history, already rich in disagreeable
behavior toward candidate countries, has been so insulted and
rejected as Turkey has. The accession negotiations that began in
October 2005 through incredible difficulties, were virtually
suspended in eight months' time, arguing that Turkey was not
abiding by the conditions of the Protocol signed previously.
Greek Cyprus-flagged vessels and planes were banned in Turkish
ports and airports. ... In fact, the move was an open step
toward sabotaging a very promising accession negotiations
process. As Nathalie Nougayrede wrote in The Guardian: 'EU
accession negotiations stalled years ago, mostly because European
public opinion could never accept the notion of engaging with such
a large Muslim country.'"<END QUOTE>

German editorial writers were also cynical, claiming that the proposal
wouldn't work anyway:

<QUOTE>"But how that is meant to happen seems unclear, if you
look at a map of the country. Turkey's border with Syria is 800
kilometers long and is just as difficult to monitor as the
country's winding Aegean coast, which faces Greece. The idea of
having transit camps, which only a certain number of refugees will
be allowed to leave in the direction of Europe, is also
impractical. Only a small percentage of the two million Syrian
refugees living in Turkey, are living in camps along the
border. Most of them are in the big Turkish cities, or they are
trying to travel onwards. How are you going to bring them back to
the camps? Are they going to be brought back by
force?"<END QUOTE>

Europe is experiencing its greatest refugee crisis since World War II,
and it looks like nothing is going to stop it. Today's Zaman (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold
****


Migrants arrive from Turkey to Greece, through Macedonia and Serbia, then proceed from there depending on which borders are still open.

With winter approaching, it had been thought that by this time the
flow of migrants from the Mideast and Africa pouring into Europe would
have slowed by now. Instead thousands of refugees are rushing to beat
the winter. The number of arriving refugees has increased since the
announcements by Hungary first that it would close the border to
Serbia, and then the border to Croatia.

There are now about 6,000 migrants per day entering Europe from either
the Mediterranean route -- smuggled into Italy by boat from Libya --
or from the Aegean Sea route -- smuggled into Greece by boat from
Turkey.

During the warmth of the summer, migrants had been traveling through
Serbia, through Hungary to Austria and on to Germany. After Hungary
built a razor-wire fence along the border with Serbia, the stream of
migrants were then diverted west, into Croatia. From Croatia they
traveled north back into Hungary -- until Friday at midnight, when
Hungary closed that border as well.

Now Croatia is diverting them further west, into Slovenia, so that
they could travel north again, into Austria. The new problem is that
there are about 5,000 migrants per day passing through Croatia, while
Slovenia is refusing to admit more than 2,500 per day. Austria has
also announced that it refuses to admit more than 1,500 per day.

So the immediate problem is that hundreds of migrants are stranded in
"no-man's land." This refers to the strip of land between the Croatia
border control and the Slovenia border control. Croatia has been
letting the migrants cross over into the no-man's land, but Slovenia
is refusing to let them go further. As a result, they're spending
nights trapped, cold, wet and hungry, with little or no protection
from the rain.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see where all this is
going. With 6,000 migrants entering Europe each day, and various
border controls letting only 2,000 or through each day, there are
going to be many thousands of migrants stranded at different border
controls. Temperatures are already plummeting, and as October leads
into November, a lot of people's lives are going to be in danger from
the cold.

It seems like a lifetime ago, but it was only in June that the
European Union agreed to a plan to distribute up to 120,000 migrants
to all 28 EU countries according to a quota system. That whole plan
has been completely blown away, with over 700,000 migrants expected by
the end of this year. The EU seems unable to deal with the crisis,
but with winter approaching, something will have to be done. Reuters and NY Times and International Business Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel, Turkey,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary, Libya

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*** 21-Oct-15 World View -- India's Punjab state is 'on the boil' over violent Sikh protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Punjab state is 'on the boil' over violent Sikh protests
• Origins of Sikhism
• Militarization of Sikhism

****
**** India's Punjab state is 'on the boil' over violent Sikh protests
****


Paramilitary forces deployed in Punjab this week (india.com)

With India's Punjab state "on the boil," India is deploying 10
companies, about 1000 soldiers, of paramilitary forces to several
cities in Punjab province where Sikhs have been conducting large
marches, to protest an acts of desecration against Sikhism's holy
book, known as "Guru Granth Sahib."

There have been at least five reports of copies of the Guru Granth
Sahib being torn up or otherwise desecrated, in various cities across
Punjab.

In one case of vigilante justice, a man who had allegedly committed a
sacrilege at a gurdwada (Sikh temple) was taken and beaten up by three
youth.

In one district last Wednesday, hundreds of angry protesters
confronted police, who opened fire, killing two protesters and
wounding dozens of others. The killings have further angered Sikh
community members who have taken to blocking highways and bridges,
demanding action against those who they say desecrated the holy book.

The fear is that the violence will grow and ignite the pro-Khalistan
movement. The Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF) is a militant
separatist movement to create a Sikh nation called Khalistan.

In view of the situation, the games of World Kabaddi Cup scheduled to
be held in Punjab from November 14 to 28 were cancelled. I knew
nothing about Kabaddi before researching this article, but apparently
it's a major sport played around the world, including in the US.
There are no balls involved in the game. A player from one court has
to tag an opponent in the other court, and then return to his home
court, all the while without inhaling. I'm not kidding. The Hindu and India Times and BBC and
How to play Kabaddi

****
**** Origins of Sikhism
****

Sikh males are often confused with Muslims because they wear turbans
to cover their long hair. It's thought that this confusion led to
the August 2012 terrorist attack on a Sikh temple
in Wisconsin, killing seven people.

There are 23 million Sikhs worldwide, making Sikhism the 5th largest
religion in the world, with 19 million Sikhs living in India,
primarily in the state of Punjab.

The word "Sikhism" derives from "Sikh," which means a strong and able
disciple. Sikhism emerged in 16th-century India in an environment
heavily permeated with conflicts between the Hindu and Muslim
religions. While Sikhism reflects its cultural context, having arisen
out of Hinduism and Islam, it certainly developed into a movement
unique in India. Sikhs regard their faith as an authentic new divine
revelation.

In Hinduism and Buddhism, a Guru is a spiritual teacher. Sikhs follow
the writings and teachings of the Ten Sikh Gurus. These teachings are
collected in the Sikh holy book, the "Sri Guru Granth Sahib."

According to Guru Arjan Dev (1563-1606):

<QUOTE>"I observe neither Hindu fasting nor the ritual of the
Muslim Ramadan month; Him I serve who at the last shall save. The
Lord of universe of the Hindus, Gosain and Allah to me are one;
From Hindus and Muslims have I broken free. I perform neither
Kaaba pilgrimage nor at bathing spots worship; One sole Lord I
serve, and no other. I perform neither the Hindu worship nor the
Muslim prayer; To the Sole Formless Lord in my heart I bow. We
neither are Hindus nor Muslims; Our body and life belong to the
One Supreme Being who alone is both Ram and Allah for
us."<END QUOTE>

The founder of Sikhism, and the first of the Sikh Gurus, was Guru
Nanak Dev (1469-1539), whose most famous saying is: "There is no
Hindu, there is no Muslim, so whose path shall I follow? I shall
follow the path of God." Sikhs.org

****
**** Militarization of Sikhism
****

Sikhism emerged as a peaceful alternative to the wars between Hinduism
and Islam, but the Sikh people are just as subject to generational
crisis wars as any other group people.

By 1600, Sikhism was beginning to be seen as a threat to the state,
and the last five Gurus began to militarize the Sikh community, so
that they could resist oppression. Beginning in the early 1700s, the
tenth Guru was followed by a series of military leaders, who captured
more and more territory. In 1799, Sikh leader Ranjit Singh captured
Lahore, and in 1801 established the Punjab as an independent state,
with himself as Maharaja.

During the 1800s, troops of the British Empire defeated the Sikh
armies, and took over much Sikh territory. The climax occurred in
1849, when the Sikhs were decisively beaten by the British.

British-Sikh relations were good until the Amritsar Massacre of 1919,
when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest
meeting, killing hundreds. Some historians regard the massacre as the
event that began the decline of British control.

Relations between Sikhs and Hindus have not always been peaceful. In
1983, some Sikh activists took refuge in the Golden Temple Complex at
Amritsar, the most revered place in the Sikh world. In June 1984
Indian troops launched 'Operation Blue Star'. They attacked the Golden
Temple Complex, killing many of those inside, and seriously damaging
the buildings.

This infuriated the Sikhs. In October 1984, the world was shocked
when India's prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two of
her Sikh bodyguards. Four days of anti-Sikh rioting followed in
India. The government said that more than 2,700 people, mostly Sikhs,
were killed, while newspapers and human rights groups put the death
toll between 10,000 and 17,000. BBC

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Punjab, Sikhism, Guru Granth Sahib,
World Kabaddi Cup, Khalistan Liberation Force, KLF,
Guru Arjan Dev, Guru Nanak Dev,
Ranjit Singh, Amritsar Massacre, Golden Temple Complex,
Operation Blue Star, Indira Ghandi

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*** 22-Oct-15 World View -- In major strategic escalation, Pakistan will use tactical nuclear weapons against India

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In major strategic escalation, Pakistan will use tactical nuclear weapons against India
• India threatens use of its 'Cold Start' conventional tactics
• Implications of Pakistan's nuclear strategy for Iran and Saudi Arabia

****
**** In major strategic escalation, Pakistan will use tactical nuclear weapons against India
****


Nasr tactical nuclear weapon missile system

For the first time, Pakistan is declaring that it will develop
tactical battlefield nuclear weapons, and that they're intended for
use against India's conventional forces.

This is a historic strategic escalation for Pakistan, because it
changes its nuclear strategy from "minimum credible deterrence" to
"full spectrum deterrence."

In 1998, Pakistan conducted nuclear weapons tests, and declared itself
to be a nuclear weapons state, with a strategy of "minimum credible
deterrence" This effectively meant that Pakistan would not use its
nuclear devices unless provoked to do so, which would only occur on a
nuclear attack by India or a massive attack by conventional forces.

Pakistan's new nuclear missile is the Nasr (Hatf-9). There are two
significant differences between the Nasr and other strategic nuclear
missiles. The first difference is the short range -- only 60 km (37
miles). This range is too short to attack strategic targets within
India, such as far-away cities or military bases. The second
difference is the low yield, which makes them more powerful than
artillery shells, but far below what most people think of as "weapons
of mass destruction."

Thus, the Nasr missile is a nuclear weapon that could be used as an
ordinary battlefield weapon against conventional forces.

According to Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhury, who on
Tuesday announced the new strategy:

<QUOTE>"Pakistan has built an infrastructure near border
areas to launch a quickest response to Indian aggression... Usage
of such low-yield nuclear weapons would make it difficult for
India to launch a war against Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

The result is that Pakistan has now adopted a "full spectrum
deterrence" nuclear strategy, which means that they are capable of
deploying nuclear weapons in response to both large scale conventional
attacks or small border incursions. In particular, the new Nasr
missiles will be deployed near the borders with India, so that they
can provide a quick response.

Chaudhury's statement contains an implied admission that Pakistan is
unable to repel a conventional Indian military incursion with a
conventional military counterattack, and so tactical nuclear weapons
will be needed.

Analysts foresee a big danger in the use of tactical nuclear weapons
by conventional forces. The problem is that if conventional forces
are losing a battle, and a tactical nuclear weapon is available right
there near the battlefield, then the tactical nuclear weapon will
probably be used. The use of a tactical nuclear weapon could easily
trigger the use of strategic nuclear weapons by the other side,
meaning that the chances of all-out nuclear war are increased by the
availability of tactical nuclear weapons.

In fact, India has said that even any nuclear attack, even a small
one, on its forces would be treated as a strategic nuclear strike on
India itself, and would meet an appropriate response. Pakistan Defence and Passive Voices (Pakistan) and Times of India

****
**** India threatens use of its 'Cold Start' conventional tactics
****

Pakistan's decision to change its nuclear strategy from "minimum
credible deterrence" to "full spectrum deterrence" was triggered by an
announced change in the use of conventional forces.

The particular issue is the Kashmir region, which has been disputed by
Pakistan and India since the 1947 Partition war that followed the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent and the creation of the states
of Pakistan and India. The Kashmir region was a particularly bloody
site of the war between Hindus and Muslims, and it's still disputed,
with an internationally recognized Line of Control (LoC) separating
the regions currently governed by Pakistan from those governed by
India.

The problem for India is that whenever a Pakistani jihadist group
crosses the LoC and conducts a terrorist attack on the Indian side, it
takes a long time for India to deploy its army to respond.

So India has developed a "Cold Start" strategy. India will prepare
army units, including attack helicopters and multiple rocket launchers
with a 100 km range, to be able to respond immediately to a terrorist
attack from Pakistani jihadists.

The Cold Start strategy goes farther than that. In addition to
repelling the jihadist attack, the army unit will take control of a
small piece of Pakistani territory, as a kind of retribution for the
attack. The reasoning is that such a small army counterattack cannot
be repulsed by Pakistan's smaller army, and will not trigger a nuclear
response because of Pakistan's "minimum credible deterrence" strategy.

Pakistan's "full spectrum deterrence" strategy with tactical nuclear
weapons is specifically targeting India's Cold Start strategy. A
small Indian conventional military incursion can now be met with a
tactical nuclear weapon.

It's worth pointing out that, although Cold Start has been discussed
for years, it has never been deployed, and apparently no actions have
been taken to deploy it in the near future. Arms Control Association and BBC

****
**** Implications of Pakistan's nuclear strategy for Iran and Saudi Arabia
****

As I've been writing for years, nothing is going to prevent Iran from
developing nuclear weapons -- not because of some obscure weaknesses
in the recent nuclear deal with the West, but because Iran's
population across all generations demands it. Iran has already been
the target of weapons of mass destruction by Saddam Hussein, and Iran
sees itself surrounded by nuclear states -- Pakistan, Russia and
Israel. So Iran sees the need for a nuclear weapon capability as a
requirement for self-defense.

However, Iran has no intention of preemptively using such weapons on
Israel. Iran sees them in a purely defensive light.

Pakistan's new announcement will certainly inflame Iran's concerns
about being surrounded by nuclear powers. If tactical nuclear weapons
are going to become commonly intermingled with conventional forces
near Pakistan's borders, then it's quite possible they will fall into
the hands of jihadists, for use in Syria, Iraq or Yemen. It's also
quite possible that Pakistan will supply these weapons to Saudi
Arabia, as they have close military ties. All of these factors will
make the Iranian people even more nervous, and demand the development
of nuclear weapons, despite the nuclear agreement with the West.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Nasr missile, India,
minimum credible deterrence, full spectrum deterrence,
Cold Start, Aizaz Chaudhury, Kashmir,
Line of Control, LoC, Saddam Hussein, Iran,
Israel, Saudi Arabia

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*** 23-Oct-15 World View -- Joint US-Kurdish operation in Iraq rescues 70 hostages from ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Joint US-Kurdish operation in Iraq rescues 70 hostages from ISIS, one American killed
• Administration denies that combat use of American soldiers was 'mission creep'

****
**** Joint US-Kurdish operation in Iraq rescues 70 hostages from ISIS, one American killed
****


Kurdish Peshmerga forces

About 70 hostages in a prison compound held by the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) were freed on Thursday in a joint
commando raid by Kurdish Peshmerga militia forces and American combat
troops, supported by four helicopters. One American soldier was
killed.

According to the White House, the hostages faced "imminent mass
execution":

<QUOTE>"That operation was deliberately planned and launched
after receiving information that the hostages faced imminent mass
execution. It was authorized consistent with our counter-ISIL
effort to train, advise and assist Iraqi forces."<END QUOTE>

Of the rescued hostages, more than 20 were Iraqi soldiers and the rest
were civilians, with no Americans in the group. McClatchy and Rudaw (Iraq) and
CBS

****
**** Administration denies that combat use of American soldiers was 'mission creep'
****

The use of American ground forces in Thursday's rescue operation
appears to violate the administrations vow that American
"boots on the ground" would not be involved in combat operations.

According to President Obama on June 19, 2014:

<QUOTE>"We have had advisors in Iraq through our embassy, and
we’re prepared to send a small number of additional American
military advisors -- up to 300 -- to assess how we can best train,
advise, and support Iraqi security forces going forward.

American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq, but we
will help Iraqis as they take the fight to terrorists who threaten
the Iraqi people, the region, and American interests as
well."<END QUOTE>

Since then, the 300 military advisors have been increased, in step by
step escalations, up to 3000 soldiers. However, the White House
denies that Thursday's action is another escalation, or that it's
"mission creep." According to a Pentagon spokesman:

<QUOTE>"U.S. forces are not in an active combat mission in
Iraq, and I can say that directly. ... This was a unique
circumstance - a specific request from the Kurdistan regional
government - and we acted. Thanks to the actions of not only the
Iraqi forces involved here, but the U.S. forces, lives were
saved."<END QUOTE>

There were several questions that went unanswered on Thursday. One
was whether American forces would be used in combat in the future.
The other was whether American forces have previously been used in
combat, but it was kept secret because no American was killed.
Administration officials refused to answer either question.

The situation in Iraq is very confused right now, since no one knows
the plans of the Russians. There are Russian warplanes in Syria, and
Iranian ground troops in Syria. The Iraqi government is reported to
have request Russian warplanes in Iraq, although that hasn't been
confirmed. It may turn out that Russian activity in Iraq will
preclude any further American escalation. VOA and Foreign Policy and Daily Beast

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Peshmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 24-Oct-15 World View -- Israelis line up to buy guns as Palestinian violence increases

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israelis line up to buy guns as Palestinian violence increases
• West Bank terrorist group Tanzim blames Palestinian attacks on Netanyahu
• Greece sets mortgage foreclosure 'red line' on new bailout negotiations

****
**** Israelis line up to buy guns as Palestinian violence increases
****


Israelis practicing at a firing range in Tel Aviv last week (Haaretz)

Israel's Internal Security Ministry has eased some of its gun control
laws to allow more people to purchase guns for self-defense, in view
of the increasing violence by "lone wolf" Palestinians. At first they
were mostly stabbing attacks, but recently ramming people with cars
has been increasing.

The result has been long lines at gun shops and firing ranges. A gun
costs between $730 and $1,170. Supplies of less lethal defenses, such
as pepper spray or a club, have been sold out.

Uri David, an Israeli importer of Glocks, has seen a 50% increase in
demand:

<QUOTE>"Already last year, we saw an increase in sales during
Protective Edge [last summer's 60-day Gaza war], mainly from
people living in the south. Right now the demand is reaching
levels never seen before. As an importer, it usually takes a while
for new orders to starting coming in from dealers. This time I was
surprised by how fast new orders started rolling in."<END QUOTE>

For years, new Israeli gun control laws have put additional obstacles
in the way of getting a license to own a gun, with the result that gun
ownership has decreased. It's estimated that Israelis own about
90,000 firearms, down from 350,000 in 1995. Haaretz and
NPR

****
**** West Bank terrorist group Tanzim blames Palestinian attacks on Netanyahu
****

According to Adnan A'it, a leader in the West Bank terror group
Tanzim, "no one has any control over what is happening" in regard to
the growing violence in Jerusalem, and Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu is to blame:

<QUOTE>"Things are getting worse, and will continue to get
worse. ... No one but him is responsible for this situation. The
Palestinian Authority does not have the resources to rule
properly, and that makes Netanyahu responsible."<END QUOTE>

Tanzim is a militant group in the West Bank affiliated with Fatah, the
armed wing of the Palestinian Authority (PA). It was formed
by Fatah in 1995, and played a leading role in the second intifada,
which began in 2000. The head of Tanzim is Marwan Barghouti,
who is serving time in an Israeli jail for murder.

Tanzim is nominally under the control of PA president Mahmoud Abbas,
but that control is eroding. Abbas is becoming increasingly
irrelevant to Tanzim, just as Abbas is becoming increasingly
irrelevant to the young people in the West Bank.

As I wrote recently in "18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive"
, the
young 15-20 year old kids in the Palestinian "Oslo generation" are
increasingly contemptuous of Abbas, Hamas and other Palestinian
leaders, and are taking out their increasing anger and frustration in
the form of stabbing and ramming attacks against Israelis in Jerusalem
and increasingly across the West Bank.

As I wrote in that article, there's a concept in generational theory
of a "Grey Champion," a usually older person who emerges to lead the
younger generation into war. Who that leader will be is not yet
known, but the Tanzim terrorist organization is increasingly in a
position either to provide that leader from its ranks or to endorse
that leader, wherever he comes from.

For example, Jibril Rajoub, one of the leaders in Tanzim, is
positioning himself to be that leader as a candidate to succeed Abbas.
When the current wave of violence just started, Rajoub was still
urging the Palestinian security forces to hold a dialogue with Israel.
But now, this week, he changed his tune to a far more extreme
position, encouraging the knife-wielding terrorists. This kind of
rhetoric only serves to increase his popularity on the Palestinian
street. Israel National News and YNet News and Al Monitor

****
**** Greece sets mortgage foreclosure 'red line' on new bailout negotiations
****

Representatives of European lenders have been meeting with Greece's
government in Athens to negotiate the terms for the next bailout
money, totaling 86 billion euros. Greece must implement dozens of
reforms by the middle of next week, before the Euro Working Group
meets on Thursday, in order to get approval for the release of the
first 2 billion euros of the new bailout.

The main sticking point in the current negotiations is said to be
foreclosures on homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage
payments. Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras has set a "red line"
that any home valued at 200,000 euros or less be immune from
foreclosure. According to Tsipras, turning the country into an "arena
of confiscations" of homes was out of the question.

The European lenders want that limit to be 120,000. If too many
non-performing loans are on the balance sheets of Greek banks, then it
will be much more difficult to recapitalize the banks and make them
healthy again.

Negotiations will continue over the weekend. Kathimerini and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Jerusalem,
Fatah, Tanzim, Adnan A'it, Marwan Barghouti, Mahmoud Abbas, Jibril Rajoub,
Greece, Alexis Tsipras

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*** 25-Oct-15 World View -- More EU countries threaten border closings, as refugee crisis worsens

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• More EU countries threaten border closings, as refugee crisis worsens
• Risk of new housing bubble collapse continues to grow
• Illinois starts paying IOUs instead of lottery winnings

****
**** More EU countries threaten border closings, as refugee crisis worsens
****


Migrants arriving in Slovenia from Croatia on Friday (AFP)

Cold weather has not slowed the numbers of migrants, especially from
Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, as EU officials had hoped. A record
5,800 crossed from Macedonia into Serbia in one day this month. The
flow of migrants seems to be increasing, out of fear that all the
borders will soon be closed. Some 58,000 migrants arrived in Slovenia
in the last week alone, overwhelming the country's resources. The
danger that thousands of migrants will be trapped in the winter cold
is increasing, as we described a few days ago. ( "20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold"
)

Three west Balkan countries, Bulgaria, Serbia and Romania, are
threatening to close their borders completely. Bulgaria's Prime
Minister Boiko Borisov announced:

<QUOTE>"The three countries, we are standing ready, if
Germany and Austria close their borders, not to allow our
countries to become buffer zones. We will be ready to close
borders."<END QUOTE>

European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker has called an
extraordinary meeting of EU leaders, including leaders from Austria,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Romania,
Serbia and Slovenia. According to Jüncker, "They will discuss
urgently needed, common operative answers to the current humanitarian
demands and decide on short-term measures."

German media have reported that Jüncker will present a 16-point plan,
including an undertaking not to send migrants from one country to
another without prior agreement. Other proposals in the plan are
expected to be speeding up procedures to speed up asylum procedures
and deportation for migrants.

It's also believed that there will be proposals for humanitarian aid
for migrants trapped in the cold. Reuters and BBC and Reuters

****
**** Risk of new housing bubble collapse continues to grow
****

The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), which measures (inversely)
the stability and health of the real estate markets, has increased
every month since January 2014, meaning that the real estate markets
are becoming less stable and less healthy, as they did in the
mid-2000s decade, prior to the collapse of the housing bubble.

Some of the findings in the report by the American Enterprise
Institute are:

• Credit requirements for first-time buyers are being weakened,
  just as in the creation of the mid-2000s housing bubble. The same
  abusive practices that were common with subprime mortgages are
  recurring. For example, in September, 70% had down payments less than
  or equal to 5%.
  
• Fueled by historically low mortgage rates and growing leverage
  from low down payments, real home prices have been increasing rapidly
  for 36 straight months, 12.5% higher today than in 2012, far
  outstripping income growth and crimping affordability.
  
• The Federal Housing Authority (FHA) cut its annual insurance
  premiums early this year, as a kind of social program to make houses
  more affordable. However, instead of increasing affordability, the
  insurance premium cut has largely resulted in the purchase of higher
  priced homes.

According to the report:

<QUOTE>"The typical first-time buyer today puts little money
down and chooses a mortgage that pays off very slowly. This
combination means that many first-time buyers are only one
recession away from being significantly underwater."<END QUOTE>

I have my own painful memories of last housing bubble in the mid-2000s
decade. There were some friends that I implored not to buy houses,
but they did anyway. After the bubble burst, it was heartbreaking to
seem them financially destroyed. It's going to happen again, and it
won't be pleasant. American Enterprise Institute

****
**** Illinois starts paying IOUs instead of lottery winnings
****

You can still buy lottery tickets in Illinois, but don't count on
winning much. Illinois announced last week that it won't pay out any
lottery winnings above $600.

This is the second such announcement in three months. In August,
Illinois announced that it wouldn't pay out any lottery winnings above
$25,000.

The way lotteries are supposed to work is as follows: Lots of people
buy tickets, and all that purchase money goes into a bank account.
Then the lottery winners are paid out of the same bank account.

Apparently Illinois has decided to confiscate the purchase money.

These are the kinds of things that are impossible, can't possibly
happen, until they happen. In recent years, Europe has confiscated
some people's bank accounts in Greece and Cyprus. That was supposed
to be impossible as well. That's why people in some countries avoid
banks and hide their money under their mattresses. CNN Money
and Fortune


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Jean-Claude Jüncker,
Bulgaria, Boiko Borisov, Serbia, Romania,
National Mortgage Risk Index, NMRI,
Illinois, lottery, Greece, Cyprus

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*** 26-Oct-15 World View -- European Union nations in crisis agree on a migration plan for refugees

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Eurosceptic party in Poland wins election overwhelmingly
• European Union nations in crisis agree on a migration plan for refugees
• Hey kids, what time is it? In Turkey, it's Erdogan Time!

****
**** Eurosceptic party in Poland wins election overwhelmingly
****


Poland's new Prime Minister Beata Szydlo (AFP)

Poland's eurosceptic Law and Justice party (PiS) claimed victory on
Sunday, after exit polls showed that it won 39.1% of the total, far
higher than expected. This gives PiS enough seats in parliament to
govern alone, without having to form a governing alliance with another
party.

The party's leader is Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is disliked by many
people in Poland, and who has led the party to defeat in recent
elections. In this election, Kaczynski put up Ms Beata Szydlo to
become prime minister if PiS wins, which appears certain. Some people
suspect that Szydlo will be a puppet controlled by puppetmaster
Kaczynski.

Kaczynski promised to be nice to the people his party had
just defeated:

<QUOTE>"We will exert law but there will be no taking of
revenge. There will be no squaring of personal accounts. There
will be no kicking of those who have fallen through their own
fault and very rightly so."<END QUOTE>

Some of the positions of PiS are:

• Opposing joining the eurozone, adopting the euro currency.
• Claim that Muslim migrants threaten Poland's Catholic
  way of life.
• Strong support for Polish citizens working in Britain.
• For Kaczynski, a distaste for Germany, whom his parents
  fought during WW II.
• Advocacy of strong Western opposition to Russia's annexation
  of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Strongly anti-Moscow.
• Strong supporter of Nato in opposing Russia.
• Far left economic policies, including taxes on business,
  and increases in social spending.
• Strong opposition to so-called climate change policies that would
  reduce their use of coal, which supplies about 90% of the country's
  electricity.

PiS wants to build stronger ties with the rest of Central Europe, a
bloc that Warsaw hopes to lead, in opposition to many of the policies
of Western Europe. BBC and Politico (EU) and SwissInfo

****
**** European Union nations in crisis agree on a migration plan for refugees
****

With Europe's refugee crisis reaching a tipping point that could be an
existential threat for the European Union, an emergency meeting of the
European Commission (EC) in Brussels on Sunday reached agreement.

Nearly 250,000 migrants have passed through the Balkans since
mid-September, and cold weather has not slowed the surge. Croatia
said 11,500 people crossed into the country Saturday; Croatia has been
waving the migrants through into the tiny country of Slovenia.
Slovenia has been overwhelmed, with 60,000 arriving in the last ten
days.

Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar said on Sunday morning:

<QUOTE>"The situation is truly serious. If we don’t deliver
some immediate and concrete actions on the ground in the next days
and weeks, I believe the whole European Union and Europe as a
whole will start to fall apart."<END QUOTE>

The apocalyptic words were triggered by visions of thousands of
migrants having to sleep on the ground in freezing weather, and
hundreds dying from hypothermia at the closed border crossings.

Everyone seemed to agree that the problem could not be solved without
Turkey's help in blocking migration from Turkey to Greece, but Turkey
was not represented at the meeting.

Except for that one point, the meeting was extremely contentious, with
the West Europeans demanding that the Balkan states follow
international law with regard to protection of refugees, and the
Balkan states demanding that the EU take responsibility for the
refugees.

Because temperatures are already falling below freezing at night, the
EC meeting focused on getting shelter for the migrants as quickly as
possible. Reception centers will be built by the end of the year in
Greece and the Balkan countries, to hold 100,000 refugees. Also, the
EU will send 400 police officers to Slovenia, to help with the surge
of migrants.

The plan agreed to by the EC nations have the following main points:

• To increase reception capacity to 30,000 places by the end of
  the year in Greece. The UN refugee agency will provide rent subsidies
  and host family programs for at least 20,000 more people.
  
• To seek additional capacity of 50,000, reaching a total of 100,000
  along the western Balkans route and Greece.
  
• To deploy 400 police officers within a week to Slovenia.
  
• To step up efforts to facilitate return of migrants not in need
  for international protection and step up cooperation on repatriation
  with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq and Pakistan.
  
• To scale up the Poseidon Sea joint operation in Greece, in
  particular the EU’s border agency Frontex’s presence in the Aegean
  Sea, and strengthen significantly Frontex support to Greece in
  registering and fingerprinting activities.
  
• To refrain from facilitating the movement of migrants to the
  border of another country.
  
• To set up contact points to allow daily exchanges of information
  regarding migrant movements.
  
• To exchange information on the size of movement and flows of
  refugees. Frontex [the European Union's border protection agency] as
  well as the EU’s asylum office ESAO will put this exchange of
  information in place.
  
• To contact financial institutions including the European
  Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and
  Development to secure finances for accommodation of refugees.
  
• To step up police and judicial cooperation actions against migrant
  smuggling, engaging Europol and Interpol in Western Balkan route
  operations.
  
• To reinforce support of the bloc’s border agency Frontex at the
  border between Bulgaria and Turkey. To set up a new Frontex operation
  at the external land borders between Greece and Macedonia and Greece
  and Albania to focus on exit checks and registration of refugees who
  were not registered in Greece.
  
• Working together with Frontex to detect irregular border crossing
  and support registration and fingerprinting in Croatia.

It's one thing to agree to a plan, and another thing to spend the
money to implement it. For one thing, it's not clear to me how these
reception centers will be built in time to prevent mass hypothermia.
It may be that one (unstated) part of the plan is to keep as many
refugees in Greece for as long as possible, since the weather is warm
there. Politico (EU) and BBC and Guardian (London)

****
**** Hey kids, what time is it? In Turkey, it's Erdogan Time!
****

Sunday was the day in the Eastern European Time (EET) Zone that clocks
were turned back one hour, to end daylight saving time. (In North
America, this change is made one week later, on November 1.)

However, Turkey is in chaos because president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
decreed that the time change will be delayed for TWO weeks in Turkey,
until November 8, the first Sunday after the November 1 elections.

Apparently President Erdogan has absolutely no clue how computers
work. Operating systems for almost all computers -- desktops,
smartphones, tablets, etc. -- have been programmed for years to
put Turkey into the Eastern European Time Zone, and to set the
time back one hour on October 25, 2015. Erdogan's last minute
decree to put Turkey into its own special time zone and to
set the time back on November 8 is not reflected in computer
software, and an update would have taken weeks.

The result is mass confusion in Turkey about what time it is.
According to news reports, people are already missing appointments,
including Muslim prayer times.

According to one British expat:

<QUOTE>"We’re on special ‘Erdogan time’ as he decided not to
implement daylight savings until after the election.

Unfortunately, while he CAN hold back time, he CAN'T hold back
automatic clocks which seem to have gone ahead and changed the
hour regardless. Hence we're all very confused."<END QUOTE>

According to one Twitter user: "For the next two weeks #Turkey is on
EEST... Erdogan Engineered Standard Time."

Erdogan apparently has difficulty learning this lesson. On March 30,
2014, Turkey delayed the switch to daylight savings time by one day.
Flights were delayed, and automatic baggage handling system at the
İstanbul airport malfunctioned on Sunday morning when passengers
started checking in due to synchronization problems. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and BBC and Today's Zaman (30-Mar-2014)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Poland, Law and Justice party, PiS,
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Ms Beata Szydlo, Ukraine, Russia, Nato,
European Commission, Croatia, Slovenia, Miro Cerar,
Greece, Germany, Turkey, Aegean Sea,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Eastern European Time, EET

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*** 27-Oct-15 World View -- US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today
• What was the purpose of Russia's Caspian Sea cruise missile attack on Syria?
• Insurers taking increasingly risky investment bets

****
**** US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today
****


US Navy destroyer USS Lassen, to be sent into South China Sea near China's man-made islands (Reuters)

We recently reported on plans for the US Navy to send a vessel into
the South China Sea close to the man-made island chain that China has
been building, apparently to provide a platform for a large military
base. ( "16-Oct-15 World View -- China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation"
)

There are now reports that the U.S. Navy plans to send the destroyer
USS Lassen within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands built by
China in the South China Sea within 24 hours. The ship would likely
be accompanied by a U.S. Navy P-8A surveillance plane and possibly P-3
surveillance plane.

According to an unnamed Pentagon official: "This is something that
will be a regular occurrence, not a one-off event. It’s not something
that’s unique to China."

In the past few weeks since the reports first surfaced, there have
highly nationalistic and belligerent Chinese media reports, such as
the following from the Global Times that I quoted in my last article:

<QUOTE>"Despite the legitimacy of China's construction work
and the public good it can provide, if the US adopts an aggressive
approach, it will be a breach of China's bottom line, and China
will not sit idly by.

China has remained calm with self-restraint even in the face of
Washington's escalating provocations, but if the US encroaches on
China's core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use
force to stop it."<END QUOTE>

However, there have been no such threats coming from China's Ministry
of Defense, suggesting that there won't be an immediate military
confrontation after all. However, tensions are sure to increase, as
nationalistic anti-American fury is sure to increase in China.

Many people have expressed concern that American would just stand by
and do nothing but observe as China annexed regions of the South China
Sea belonging to other nations, just as Nato stood by and only
observed Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula last year,
and just as Britain stood by and only observed as Adolf Hitler annexed
part of Czechoslovakia in 1939, leading to World War II. So the fact
that the Obama administration is taking this step to stand up to China
will come as a surprise to a lot of people, including me.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China and the United
States are headed for war anyway, whether America stands up to China
in the South China Sea or not. Reuters and CNN and Global Times (Beijing 15-Oct)

****
**** What was the purpose of Russia's Caspian Sea cruise missile attack on Syria?
****

It's now been almost three weeks since Russia's president Vladimir
Putin ordered the Caspian Sea fleet to launch a volley of 26 cruise
missiles at Syria, traveling 1,500 km over the countries of Iran and
Iraq to reach their targets in the Syrian cities of Raqqa, Idlib and
Aleppo. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea"
)

There seems to have been no follow-up from the October 7 Caspian Sea
missile attack, and so a number of questions have arisen as to the
purpose of the attack, and why the Russians didn't simply attack the
same targets through airstrikes, or through missiles launched from
Russia's Mediterranean fleet or from the Latakia, Syria, airbase. It
seems clear that Russia's purpose was to send a message. But what
message(s) was Russia sending?

Besides the obvious message to the West that Russia's military is back
in the game, there were several other messages:

• In addition to Russia, there are four other nations adjoining
  the Caspian Sea: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
  These five countries have been negotiating for years on the issue of
  dividing up the Caspian’s offshore waters and seabed while
  simultaneously developing their own nationalist energy policies.
  Russia's clear naval superiority in the Caspian will be a major factor
  in the negotiations.
  
• As we've been recently reporting, Russian troops are taking control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan.
  Russia has been using the threat of jihadists from
  Afghanistan to convince Central Asian nations to allow Russian troops
  back on their soil, as part of Vladimir Putin's apparent effort to
  reconstruct the Soviet Union through the CIS (Commonwealth of
  Independent States, formerly of the Soviet Union). The Caspian Sea
  launch occurred just before a meeting of CIS leaders in Kazakhstan on
  October 16, at which Central Asian leaders agreed to a Russian-backed
  military cooperation agreement.
  
• There's a similar message to countries in the South Caucasus,
  including Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russian media has
  repeatedly suggested that jihadists fighting in the Syrian conflict
  could pose a growing threat of religious extremism to these nations,
  and has used that threat in negotiations over military and commercial
  agreements.
  
• Some analysts see it as a marketing opportunity to help Russia
  sell the Kalibr 3M-14T missiles used in the October 7 attack to
  potential foreign buyers.
  
• Others attribute it to vanity: The attack was launched on Vladimir
  Putin's 63rd birthday.

The Russian launch from the Caspian Sea has forced civil aviation
changes. The Kazakhstan carrier Air Astana announced it was altering
the route of its Almaty-Baku flight to reduce the risk of a potential
missile-related accident, or a repeat of the shoot-down of Malaysian
Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014. The European
Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued a warning concerning all
flights crossing the airspace above the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq.
EurasiaNet and
Jamestown and Silk Road Reporters

****
**** Insurers taking increasingly risky investment bets
****

As another sign that the financial services organizations are
returning to the abusive practices that led to the financial crisis of
2007-8, BlackRock Inc. has found that insurance companies are
increasingly making risky investments.

The most serious investment problem facing insurers is the low
interest rate environment, led by the near-zero Federal Reserve funds
rate, currently at 0.12%. In normal times, insurers invest money is
corporate or government bonds, but in the current environment, the
yield (interest rate) on these bonds is also close to zero.

According to BlackRock analyst David Lomas:

<QUOTE>"The mix of divergent central bank policy, bond market
liquidity risk, and a heightened regulatory regime, presents the
industry with a dilemma. Opportunities exist to protect balance
sheet health and maintain challenged business lines, but investors
need to quickly get familiar with diversifying portfolios into
higher-risk, higher-yield assets, and also closely manage the
risks inherent in these new areas."<END QUOTE>

S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 22.07 on October 23 (WSJ)

In other words, many insurers are investing in risky derivatives and
exchange-traded funds, in the hope of getting higher yields. In
addition, many insurers are investing in stocks, despite the high S&P
500 Price/Earnings ratio. Insurers are incurring exactly the same
kinds of risks that led to the last financial crisis.

There's a big irony in this situation. As we said, the biggest
investment problem is the low interest rate environment, led by the
Fed's near-zero funds rate. But insurers say that one of their
biggest risks is that interest rates may increase, triggering a
correction in stock prices, and possibly a recession.

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (October 23) was at an
astronomically high 22.07. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Bloomberg and Insurance Asset Risk


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, USS Lassen, China, South China Sea,
Ukraine, Crimea, Adolf Hitler, Czechoslovakia,
Russia, Caspian Sea, Syria, Raqqa, Idlib, Aleppo, Kalibr 3M-14T,
Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan,
Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS,
Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin,
European Aviation Safety Agency, EASA,
BlackRock Inc., David Lomas, Price/earnings ratio

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 27-Oct-15 World View -- US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today
• What was the purpose of Russia's Caspian Sea cruise missile attack on Syria?
• Insurers taking increasingly risky investment bets

****
**** US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today
****


US Navy destroyer USS Lassen, to be sent into South China Sea near China's man-made islands (Reuters)

We recently reported on plans for the US Navy to send a vessel into
the South China Sea close to the man-made island chain that China has
been building, apparently to provide a platform for a large military
base. ( "16-Oct-15 World View -- China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation"
)

There are now reports that the U.S. Navy plans to send the destroyer
USS Lassen within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands built by
China in the South China Sea within 24 hours. The ship would likely
be accompanied by a U.S. Navy P-8A surveillance plane and possibly P-3
surveillance plane.

According to an unnamed Pentagon official: "This is something that
will be a regular occurrence, not a one-off event. It’s not something
that’s unique to China."

In the past few weeks since the reports first surfaced, there have
highly nationalistic and belligerent Chinese media reports, such as
the following from the Global Times that I quoted in my last article:

<QUOTE>"Despite the legitimacy of China's construction work
and the public good it can provide, if the US adopts an aggressive
approach, it will be a breach of China's bottom line, and China
will not sit idly by.

China has remained calm with self-restraint even in the face of
Washington's escalating provocations, but if the US encroaches on
China's core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use
force to stop it."<END QUOTE>

However, there have been no such threats coming from China's Ministry
of Defense, suggesting that there won't be an immediate military
confrontation after all. However, tensions are sure to increase, as
nationalistic anti-American fury is sure to increase in China.

Many people have expressed concern that American would just stand by
and do nothing but observe as China annexed regions of the South China
Sea belonging to other nations, just as Nato stood by and only
observed Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula last year,
and just as Britain stood by and only observed as Adolf Hitler annexed
part of Czechoslovakia in 1939, leading to World War II. So the fact
that the Obama administration is taking this step to stand up to China
will come as a surprise to a lot of people, including me.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China and the United
States are headed for war anyway, whether America stands up to China
in the South China Sea or not. Reuters and CNN and Global Times (Beijing 15-Oct)

****
**** What was the purpose of Russia's Caspian Sea cruise missile attack on Syria?
****

It's now been almost three weeks since Russia's president Vladimir
Putin ordered the Caspian Sea fleet to launch a volley of 26 cruise
missiles at Syria, traveling 1,500 km over the countries of Iran and
Iraq to reach their targets in the Syrian cities of Raqqa, Idlib and
Aleppo. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea"
)

There seems to have been no follow-up from the October 7 Caspian Sea
missile attack, and so a number of questions have arisen as to the
purpose of the attack, and why the Russians didn't simply attack the
same targets through airstrikes, or through missiles launched from
Russia's Mediterranean fleet or from the Latakia, Syria, airbase. It
seems clear that Russia's purpose was to send a message. But what
message(s) was Russia sending?

Besides the obvious message to the West that Russia's military is back
in the game, there were several other messages:

• In addition to Russia, there are four other nations adjoining
  the Caspian Sea: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
  These five countries have been negotiating for years on the issue of
  dividing up the Caspian’s offshore waters and seabed while
  simultaneously developing their own nationalist energy policies.
  Russia's clear naval superiority in the Caspian will be a major factor
  in the negotiations.
• As we've been recently reporting, Russian troops are taking control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan.
  Russia has been using the threat of jihadists from
  Afghanistan to convince Central Asian nations to allow Russian troops
  back on their soil, as part of Vladimir Putin's apparent effort to
  reconstruct the Soviet Union through the CIS (Commonwealth of
  Independent States, formerly of the Soviet Union). The Caspian Sea
  launch occurred just before a meeting of CIS leaders in Kazakhstan on
  October 16, at which Central Asian leaders agreed to a Russian-backed
  military cooperation agreement.
• There's a similar message to countries in the South Caucasus,
  including Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russian media has
  repeatedly suggested that jihadists fighting in the Syrian conflict
  could pose a growing threat of religious extremism to these nations,
  and has used that threat in negotiations over military and commercial
  agreements.
• Some analysts see it as a marketing opportunity to help Russia
  sell the Kalibr 3M-14T missiles used in the October 7 attack to
  potential foreign buyers.
• Others attribute it to vanity: The attack was launched on Vladimir
  Putin's 63rd birthday.

The Russian launch from the Caspian Sea has forced civil aviation
changes. The Kazakhstan carrier Air Astana announced it was altering
the route of its Almaty-Baku flight to reduce the risk of a potential
missile-related accident, or a repeat of the shoot-down of Malaysian
Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014. The European
Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued a warning concerning all
flights crossing the airspace above the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq.
EurasiaNet and
Jamestown and Silk Road Reporters

****
**** Insurers taking increasingly risky investment bets
****

As another sign that the financial services organizations are
returning to the abusive practices that led to the financial crisis of
2007-8, BlackRock Inc. has found that insurance companies are
increasingly making risky investments.

The most serious investment problem facing insurers is the low
interest rate environment, led by the near-zero Federal Reserve funds
rate, currently at 0.12%. In normal times, insurers invest money is
corporate or government bonds, but in the current environment, the
yield (interest rate) on these bonds is also close to zero.

According to BlackRock analyst David Lomas:

<QUOTE>"The mix of divergent central bank policy, bond market
liquidity risk, and a heightened regulatory regime, presents the
industry with a dilemma. Opportunities exist to protect balance
sheet health and maintain challenged business lines, but investors
need to quickly get familiar with diversifying portfolios into
higher-risk, higher-yield assets, and also closely manage the
risks inherent in these new areas."<END QUOTE>

S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 22.07 on October 23 (WSJ)

In other words, many insurers are investing in risky derivatives and
exchange-traded funds, in the hope of getting higher yields. In
addition, many insurers are investing in stocks, despite the high S&P
500 Price/Earnings ratio. Insurers are incurring exactly the same
kinds of risks that led to the last financial crisis.

There's a big irony in this situation. As we said, the biggest
investment problem is the low interest rate environment, led by the
Fed's near-zero funds rate. But insurers say that one of their
biggest risks is that interest rates may increase, triggering a
correction in stock prices, and possibly a recession.

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (October 23) was at an
astronomically high 22.07. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Bloomberg and Insurance Asset Risk


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, USS Lassen, China, South China Sea,
Ukraine, Crimea, Adolf Hitler, Czechoslovakia,
Russia, Caspian Sea, Syria, Raqqa, Idlib, Aleppo, Kalibr 3M-14T,
Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan,
Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS,
Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin,
European Aviation Safety Agency, EASA,
BlackRock Inc., David Lomas, Price/earnings ratio

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Wages are stagnant or declining, for all but a few niches. This lack of disposable income and the general decline of the middle class is an ongoing head wind that will ultimately crash the house of cards.

*** 28-Oct-15 World View -- Russia's intervention in Syria increases Saudi-Mideast sectarian tension

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sunni jihadist suicide bomber targets Shia mosque in Saudi Arabia
• Russia's military intervention in Syria inflames jihadists in Saudi Arabia

****
**** Sunni jihadist suicide bomber targets Shia mosque in Saudi Arabia
****


Al-Mashhad mosque in Najran, Saudi Arabia

A Sunni jihadist suicide bomber on Monday killed three people and
wounded dozens by attacking the Shia al-Mashhad mosque in Najran, a
city in southeastern Saudi Arabia near the border with Yemen. The
city is the historic center of the Ismailis, a Shia sect which has
long complained of victimization by Wahhabis, whose theology prevails
in Saudi Arabia and, in extreme forms, is used by violent Sunni
jihadists to justify their acts.

The attacker has been identified as Abu Ishaq al-Hijazi, as Saudi
nation who has spent four years with the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). After the attack, a video prerecorded by
the attacker appeared on the internet. In it, he blamed the Shias,
the Saudi soldiers who protect the Shia mosques, and also the pilots
whose warplanes attack ISIS in Syria:

<QUOTE>"My first message is a threat to the rejectionist
Ismailis ... you will not enjoy life in the [Arabian]
Peninsula. ...

My second message, to the soldiers of the tyrant who protect the
polytheists and their temples in (Saudi Arabia) ... you will not
be safe in your homes or your offices and we'll target you as long
as the planes of your guardian hit Muslims with Crusader planes in
Iraq and Syria."<END QUOTE>

Al Arabiya and Reuters and Arab News

****
**** Russia's military intervention in Syria inflames jihadists in Saudi Arabia
****

As I suggested last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast"
, one of worst outcomes from Russia's
military intervention in Syria would occur if jihadists saw it as an
Orthodox Christian invasion of a Muslim country in the same way that
they viewed the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a Christian
invasion of a Muslim country.

That's exactly what's happening. Earlier this month, 55 Saudi clerics
signed and published a statement calling on all Syrians to join the
jihad against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The statement said
that this was a war launched by "the Orthodox crusader Russia" against
the Muslim Syria:

<QUOTE>"After nearly five years of unrelenting political and
military support for the 'Alawite regime, Russia is now throwing
its full weight behind [it] and is intervening directly and
militarily to protect the Bashar Al-Assad regime from falling. In
light of this most terrible calamity and war crime on the part of
an influential country that presumes to be responsible for world
justice and peace, we hereby declare the following:

"O Russians, the most extreme among Christians – [there is]
nothing new under the sun! 36 years ago the communist Soviet Union
invaded the Muslim Afghanistan to support the Communist Party and
protect it from falling. And now, its successor, the Orthodox
crusader Russia, is invading the Muslim Syria to support the
'Alawite regime and protect it from falling; it must learn a
lesson from the fate of its predecessor. The heads of your
Orthodox Church have declared [the Russian intervention of Syria]
a crusader holy war, just as [George] Bush Jr. did in the past
[regarding the American invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq]. Know
that Muslims will redeem their faith by sacrificing their lives,
souls, and all they hold dear, and just as they expelled you from
Afghanistan, they will bring about you humiliating defeat in
Syria, Allah willing.

O, our men in Syria – the calamity afflicting you is severely
worsening and your test has lasted a long time... You must fear
Allah, repent, and trust in Allah... Know that Russia only
intervened to save the regime from certain defeat. Through you,
Allah defeated the security [mechanisms] of the regime and its
shabiha [militias], followed by its army, and later the Shi'ite
Safavid groups from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.
Through you, He defeated the Party of Satan [i.e. Hezbullah] and
He can defeat the Russians [as well]. Therefore, persevere and
endure and remain stationed and fear Allah, that you may be
successful' (Koran 3:200)... We call on you to hold on, and we
urge the men [of the various groups], [all] able and skilled
people in all fields, to stay and not leave Syria, and to take
part in building and liberating [it]. We call on the able among
you to join the ranks of jihad, for this is your hour... Swiftly
join the jihad against the enemy of God and your enemy, and Allah
will be with you, and the Muslims will stand behind you as much as
they can. The dawn of victory is at hand. ...

Allah, please hasten the victory of the people of Syria... and
defeat the armies that have conspired against us"<END QUOTE>

There is no doubt that the majority in Saudi Arabia and Arab countries
in general are furious at the Russian intervention in Syria.
Nonetheless, the statement has generated quite a bit of debate in
Saudi Arabia, including condemnation by many in the media. Some
journalists have pointed out that purpose of the statement is really
incite a generational Muslim mobilization, especially amount Saudi
youth. This is quite plausible, since the most of the young jihadists
who went to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s were Saudi
youth, and one of them was Osama bin Laden.

According to one journalist, "The new inciters... are firing in our
direction once more. The new call for jihad is a new trap to snare the
youth."

As I described last month in "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"
, the country's
al-Saud ruling family and the Salafist group known as the Wahhabis
made an agreement in the 1920s that allowed the al-Saud family to rule
the country, and the Wahhabis to control the mosques and religious
education. It was the unraveling of that agreement in the 1980-90s
that led to the creation of al-Qaeda as an enemy of the West, but also
of Saudi Arabia itself. As that agreement continues to unravel, Saudi
society itself is split.

Many Saudis were undoubtedly further infuriated last week to read
about the visit by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad Moscow, and his
statement of thanks to Russia's president Vladimir Putin:

<QUOTE>"First of all I wanted to express my huge gratitude to
the whole leadership of the Russian federation for the help they
are giving Syria. If it was not for your actions and your
decisions, the terrorism which is spreading in the region would
have swallowed up a much greater area and spread over an even
greater area."<END QUOTE>

There is a large but minority Shia population in Saudi Arabia, but
they are becoming increasingly frightened by the growing hostility and
open sectarianism of many Sunnis. Even Saudi social media messages on
the Internet contain increasingly open incitement against Shia.
Memri
and Guardian (London, 21-Oct) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, al-Mashhad mosque, Najran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ismailis, Wahhabis, Abu Ishaq al-Hijazi, Syria, Russia,
Afghanistan, Orthodox Christianity, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, Iraq

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*** 29-Oct-15 World View -- Iran's government splits over implementation of nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's Rafsanjani admits to nuclear development since 1980s
• Khamenei's nuclear fatwa and the Iraq war
• Rafsanjani and Khamenei publicly disagree on the nuclear deal

****
**** Iran's Rafsanjani admits to nuclear development since 1980s
****


Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei (L) and Hashemi Rafsanjani

In what's being called a major admission by Iran's leadership, Hashemi
Rafsanjani, the head of Iran's Expediency Council and the political
rival of Iranian Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei earlier this week
admitted that Iran has been developing nuclear weapons since the
1980s. In a televised interview, Rafsanjani explained that the work
began because Iran was at war with Iraq, and Iraq had begun developing
its own nuclear facilities at Osirak. Iran had attempted to bomb and
destroy these facilities early in 1980, and they were finally
destroyed by Israel's fighter jets in late 1980.

According to Rafsanjani, the early work that was done was for peaceful
use of nuclear energy, but also provided the option of quickly
developing a nuclear weapon if that became necessary:

<QUOTE>"As I have said, when we started the [nuclear] work,
we were at war, and we wanted to have such an option for the day
our enemies wanted to use nuclear weapons. This was [our] state of
mind, but things never become serious.

However, we took seriously the non-military uses [of the nuclear
project], and so we invested money and did a great deal of
work. We worked in various areas and also taught a great deal. We
dispatched students and invited scientists and many other things
of this sort. The principle of our doctrine was the use of nuclear
[energy] for peaceful purposes, even though we never abandoned
[the idea] that if we were some day to face a certain threat, and
if it became necessary, then we would have the option of going to
the other side [i.e. to develop nuclear weapons]. But we did not
have a plan to do this, and we never deviated [from civilian
use]."<END QUOTE>

In addition, Rafsanjani acknowledged in this interview that Iran
received nuclear technology from Pakistan's nuclear scientist Abdul
Qadeer Khan. Khan built Pakistan's first nuclear weapon, and also
provided nuclear technology to North Korea. Rafsanjani also
acknowledged that from the onset there has been a comprehensive
clandestine nuclear plan, including construction of secret sites,
enrichment of uranium, manufacture of centrifuge parts, laser
technology, and the heavy water reactor. Much of this work was
performed when Rafsanjani himself was Iran's president, from 1989 to
1997.

The reason that this is a big deal is that these admissions may mean
that Iran has been violating the terms of the United Nations Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. That
admission would have affected the nuclear agreement negotiations, and
also contradicts the claims of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei that he supposed issued a fatwa in October 2003 saying that
any development of nuclear weapons is forbidden. Memri and
Times of Israel and National Council of Resistance of Iran

****
**** Khamenei's nuclear fatwa and the Iraq war
****

The debate over the 2003 Iraq war continues to be almost unbelievably
bizarre. People who say that the war should not have occurred almost
all suffer from mental deficit that keeps them from grasping the
logical contradiction: The only reason we know today that Saddam
Hussein wasn't developing WMDs is because of the war. So if the war
hadn't occurred, then Saddam could have freely developed WMDs, and we
presumably wouldn't know to this day whether he was doing so -- which
he almost certainly would be doing.

I've felt for a long time the people who need to apologize for the
Iraq war are not the ones who supported it, but the people who opposed
it. In 2003, almost everyone in the world had been convinced for
years that Saddam was developing WMDs and was going to use them
(again), so anyone who opposed the Iraq war needs to explain why he
was willing to allow Saddam to kill tens or hundreds of thousands of
people with WMDs.

We know why France's prime minister Jacques Chirac, Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, and U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan were all
opposed to the Iraq war. They were all implicated in skimming
hundreds of millions of dollars from Iraq's "Oil for Food" program.
This was discovered when a list of the corrupt officials was found in
Iraq's Oil Ministry after the war. In other words, Chirac, Putin and
Annan didn't care how many people were slaughtered by Saddam's WMDs;
the three of them were just crooks that didn't want their corruption
to be discovered, no matter how many people were killed. As for
Barack Obama, who also opposed the war, we've never had an explanation
for why he was willing to allow Saddam to kill hundreds of thousands
of people, except that perhaps he was doing what Reverend Jeremiah
Wright told him to do. ( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq"
)

Most of the world believed that Saddam had WMDs and was going to use
them (again), and that undoubtedly includes the leaders in Iran, who
were targeted by Saddam's chemical weapons in 1988.

I've been saying for years that if it hadn't been for the 2003 Iraq
war, then Iran would have pursued its own WMD program with much more
vigor.

Western intelligence agencies believe that it was just after the 2003
Iraq war that Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei halted research into
nuclear weapons, and issued the October 2003 fatwa to that effect.

Hashemi Rafsanjani's interview does not mention the 2003 Iraq war or
the fatwa, but his description of over 20 years of nuclear development
as of 2003 provides strong support for the belief that Iran would
pursued WMDs more vigorously than ever, and Khamenei certainly would
not have issued his nuclear fatwa in October 2003.

It's highly probable that if the Iraq war hadn't been fought, then
Iran and Iraq would have begun a WMD development war. Saudi Arabia
would have followed suit, and we would have many Mideast countries
with WMDs today. It's quite possible that the Bush administration
foresaw this scenario, and it was one of the reasons why the 2003 Iraq
war was pursued. Politico (22-Jun-2015)

****
**** Rafsanjani and Khamenei publicly disagree on the nuclear deal
****

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has frequently
expressed hostility to the nuclear agreement, and he seems to have
become even more hostile ever since the agreement was signed.

Last week, Khamenei sent a letter to Iran's president Hassan Rouhani,
ordering him not to implement the terms of the nuclear agreement
unless a number of brand new conditions were attached. There were
nine new conditions, including the following: All sanctions must
immediately be not just suspended but canceled, and may not be
reinstated even if Iran breaks the agreement; many of Iran's
requirement, such as shipping out most of the country's stockpile of
enriched uranium, or to "renovate" the Arak nuclear reactor, will be
postponed indefinitely; Iran's ability to enrich uranium will be
expanded.

In his interview, Rafsanjani has come out publicly challenging
Khamenei's orders. He made use of the fact that the Iranian people
overwhelmingly favor the agreement -- not because they want Iran to
end nuclear development, but because they want the economic sanctions
lifted. Rafsanjani brushes aside Khamenei's new conditions:

<QUOTE>"Eighty to 90 percent of the people agree to the
process of the JCPOA, and want to get out [of the nuclear
dossier]. 'The concerned' [i.e. the ideological camp] know
this. The Majlis sessions that preceded the vote [on the Majlis
plan on the JCPOA] cost 'the concerned' dearly... because they
affiliate themselves, in a way, with the leader [Khamenei] and it
is as if they are expressing the leader's view. The leader has a
tongue, and, more than anyone else, is capable of speaking [his
own mind]. He could have prevented them [from speaking], and there
was no need for the feud and the arguments [in the Majlis]. It is
very bad that they behaved like this in the Majlis. But this is
the method of the leader [Khamenei], who lets others speak their
minds. It would not have been bad if [the ideological camp] had
acted morally and in accordance with national
interests."<END QUOTE>

Rafsanjani appears to be laying the ground work for a rebellion
against Khamenei, and from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
this would not be surprised.

Recall that Iran is in a generational Awakening era, one generation
past the Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war. Just like
America's Awakening era in the 1960s, the era politically pits the
generations of war survivors against the generation that grew up after
the war. Rafsanjani is in the same generation as Khamenei, and yet
Rafsanjani is often referred to as a "moderate," because he adopts the
positions of the younger generations, and sometimes opposes the
hardline positions of other Great Revolution survivors. Memri (22-Oct)
and Jerusalem Post and Memri


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hashemi Rafsanjani,
Pakistan, Abdul Qadeer Khan, North Korea, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,
Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Jacques Chirac, Vladimir Putin, Kofi Annan

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*** 30-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli Arab citizens and politicians choose sides on incitement issue

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israeli Arab politicians split sharply over incitement of violence
• Israeli Arab citizens stop rioting because of pocketbook issues

****
**** Israeli Arab politicians split sharply over incitement of violence
****


Ayman Odeh (center) leading an October 9 rally in Tel Aviv (Reuters)

The split among Israeli Arab politicians made front page news earlier
this month when Ali Salam, the Palestinian mayor of Nazareth, accused
the Arab MKs (Members of Knesset or Parliament) of inciting
Palestinian violence, saying, "I blame the leaders. What is happening
is not appropriate. It is just ruining our future, ruining our
coexistence."

The incident occurred on October 10, when Arab MK Ayman Odeh was being
interviewed for a TV appearance. Salam interrupted the interview as
it was being filmed, and yelled:

<QUOTE>"Ayman, go find something to do. You have ruined our
city. Enough interviews... You have ruined the city. No Jews came
here today. Why are you conducting an interview? You had your
protest and ruined the entire world."<END QUOTE>

Salam was referring to the fact that the recent Palestinian violence
has led to a sharp drop in Jewish customers, resulting in complaints
from local business owners.

Ayman Odeh is the leader of the "Joint (Arab) List" political party,
formed last spring as an alliance of four predominantly Arab parties
with members in the Knesset. When the alliance was formed, Odeh said:

<QUOTE>"We are the only party that talks about national and
social rights for both Arabs and Jews.

In Israel, the right-wing call themselves the 'nationalist camp',
and the left call themselves the 'Zionist camp'. We want to be
the base of the democratic camp, and we hope that more and more
democratic people - Jews and Arabs - will join us."<END QUOTE>

In the ensuing months, few Jews have joined the party, and Joint List
members have been accused of inciting Palestinian violence against
Jews, even by other Arabs. Mayor Ali Salam's vocal confrontation with
Odeh on October 10 has highlighted those criticisms.

According to a recent poll, 54% of Israeli Arab respondents believe
that the Arab MKs do not represent them, because they seem to deal
only with Palestinian issues, and never with the everyday problems of
the Israeli Arabs that they supposedly represent. 25% say that Arab
MKs represent them fairly well, and only a minority of 16% say that
they represent them “very much.”

However, another Arab MK, Zouheir Bahloul, who not to a Joint List
party but to the Zionist Camp party provides a detailed explanation of
the controversy from his point of view:

<QUOTE>"I don’t want to be the Joint List’s defense attorney,
but you can’t say that they are Jew-haters or spies or a fifth
column in the Knesset. However, when I decided to go into
politics, I joined a typical Israeli party and not a clearly Arab
party. I want to be legitimate in the inner Israeli discourse that
operates without angry tones and raised voices, because I’m sick
and tired of this stuff. I also think that most of the Arab public
wants to create a new discourse with the Israeli public. So while
it’s true that the Joint List's [election] achievement is
unprecedented, that is mainly because the Arab dream of going to
the elections as one united bloc has finally been realized. ...

[With regard to the feud between Ali Salam and Ayman Odeh] I
didn’t like the style, but I liked the debate. This discourse is
very important, even if it wasn't conducted in the spirit of [late
Israeli etiquette guru] Hana Bavli. It was important to activate
the discussion within the Arab minority in Israel. Although the
Jews loved this split, naturally, and completely identified with
Ali Salam, its importance is internal [within the Arab
sector]. For years and years, no discourse has been conducted
within the Arab minority that emphasizes what is supposed to
appear on its public agenda. This confrontation showed that the
Arab sector is not one homogenous, herd-like minority. The Arab
minority is pluralistic and diverse, although it always tried to
appear homogenous vis-a-vis the Israeli public, which is a
mistake."<END QUOTE>

However, as I've pointed out in the past, (e.g., "18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive"
), there is no longer any real opportunity to
resolve this debate politically. The young "Oslo Generation" of 15-22
year old youths who grew up after the 1993 Oslo Accords, which they
view as having been worthless, no longer even want to listen to any
politicians, including Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, or Israeli
Arab MKs. They are looking for a leader who take them to war against
the Israelis, and at some point, such a leader will emerge. Memri and
Al Jazeera (29-Mar-2015) and Al Monitor and Jewish Press

****
**** Israeli Arab citizens stop rioting because of pocketbook issues
****

Widespread riots and demonstration by Israeli Arab citizens began on
October 1, with organized protests in most of the Arab communities,
including dozens of instances of blocking roads with burning tires, as
well as hurling rocks and firebombs and police and civilian vehicles.

However, the riots have stopped almost as quickly as they started,
according to a police spokesman:

<QUOTE>"For two weeks, there was an awakening and an
intensification of the protests and riots. But for the last week
and a half there has been utter quiet in the Northern
District."<END QUOTE>

The reason is that they fear a social backlash and economic boycott
from the Jews in the Israeli society, something that deeply hurt the
Arab community when the intifada began in 2000. For example, mail
deliveries may cease in Arab communities over fears for the personal
security of those delivering the mail. Similarly, deliveries of food
and equipment to Arab communities could be curtailed.

These are difficult times for the 1.7 million Palestinian citizens of
Israel, about 20% of the country's population. According one Arab
restaurant owner who has lost 40% of his business:

<QUOTE>"We are caught between the hammer and the anvil. We
don’t believe in violence and we are suffering from this
economically. But we can’t stay silent while occupation and
incitement against Palestinians goes on."<END QUOTE>

Israeli Arabs are far behind the Israeli national average in
education, employment, although they are much better of than
Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel National News and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Ayman Odeh, Joint Arab List,
Nazareth, Ali Salam, Zouheir Bahloul, Oslo Generation

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*** 31-Oct-15 World View -- President Obama orders American special forces into Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Germany to deport thousands of Afghan and Balkans migrants home
• President Obama orders American special forces into Syria

****
**** Germany to deport thousands of Afghan and Balkans migrants home
****


Refugee father in Aegean Sea scrambles for shore with his son. More than 100 children have drowned in the Aegean over the last two months. (Kathimerini)

In what appears to be a move of desperation, German officials have
announced plans to deport thousands of migrants back to their home
countries -- especially the Balkan nations and Afghanistan.

Hundreds of thousands of migrants that have streamed into Europe this
year, mainly from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, with Germany their
ultimate destination because of its more plentiful jobs. The stream
of migrants actually seems to be increasing, from 5-6,000 per week
last month to 7-8,000 per week now. The migrants arrive in Greece,
and travel north through the Balkan nations.

However, the stream of migrants also include tens of thousands whose
home countries are the Balkan nations themselves. These migrants are
also dreaming of getting a job in Germany.

Also significant is the number of migrants arriving from Afghanistan.
Tens of thousands of translators, construction workers, drivers,
bodyguards, cleaning personnel and cooks who worked for the military
and international NGOs are now unemployed. Rents and real estate
skyrocketed after 2001, when the market was inflated by the wartime
economy, but now they have abruptly plunged. The country is in a
dramatic downward economic spiral. On Sept. 28, when the Taliban captured the strategically significant provincial city of Kunduz
in northern Afghanistan, many people who
had held out started packing their bags. About 3,000 Afghans are now
coming into Iran every day illegally. From there, they continue to
Turkey, where human smugglers take them to the Greek islands, from
which they can cross the Balkans to Northern Europe. The crisis in
Afghanistan has already driven millions of refugees into Iran, and the
Iranians deport hundreds of illegal Afghan immigrants every day.

The numbers are overwhelming Germany, and are causing fights among
Germany's provinces over how to distribute the migrants. On
Wednesday, Germany's interior minister Thomas de Maizière, said that
many Afghans from relatively safe areas of their country would be sent
home:

<QUOTE>"Large amounts of development aid have gone to
Afghanistan [over the last decade] — so we can expect that Afghans
stay in their country. So I am saying very clearly today that
people who come to us as refugees from Afghanistan cannot all
expect to be able to stay in Germany. ...

I expect that in the coming weeks, the number of deportations and
of voluntary departures will rise significantly. ... [In
addition,] tens of thousands of rejected asylum seekers from the
Balkans would have to leave our country."<END QUOTE>

More and more Europeans are questioning Europe's open borders policy,
and border closings are increasingly common. Some are advocating a
return to the days when all borders between European nations were
closed. However, one European official says, "It's not all that sure
that we would be able to manage the way we used to, 20 or 30 years
ago. Now we have so much in common trade, industry, that if we go
back to national domestic borders, it would be a total new landscape
and we would need to find totally new ways of managing these borders."
RFERL and Der Spiegel (Germany) and USA Today and NPR

****
**** President Obama orders American special forces into Syria
****

In what appears to be a move of desperation, President Obama reversed
his previous declarations, repeated dozens of times, that there would
be "no American boots on the ground" in Syria. The Obama
administration on Friday announced that 50 Special Operations forces
would be deployed to northern Syria, to provide "training and
assistance."

Analysts that I heard said that Obama was forced into the U-turn
because Russia and Iran have stolen the initiative in Syria, making
the U.S. irrelevant. Politicians on the left criticized Obama's
escalation of the American military involvement, while politicians on
the right called it too little too late. Some analysts said the move
was pointless because 50 troops can't accomplish anything. CNN's
military analyst Robert Baer said, "Put in hundreds of thousands of
troops, or don't get in at all." There were unconfirmed reports that
the administration is planning further escalations.

This comes just a month after President Obama's latest escalation in
the American involvement in the Afghanistan war. He had repeatedly
declared that American would withdraw long before he left office, but
the the withdrawal date was extended several times, and will now
extend into the term of the next president. Once again, further
escalations may be necessary. ( "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia"
)

I've written many times about the Truman Doctrine,
from President Harry Truman in 1947, which made
America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better
to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let
it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II.
The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask
not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman
Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first
president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the
world without a policeman. We continue to see what happens to the
world when it no longer has a policeman. Washington Post and CNN and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Afghanistan, Balkans, Greece,
Turkey, Iran, Syria, Thomas de Maizière, Robert Baer,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, John Kennedy

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*** 1-Nov-15 World View -- Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war'
• Syria's civil war and Generational Dynamics
• Generational Dynamics and crisis civil wars
• Generational Dynamics and war between Palestinians and Israelis

****
**** Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war'
****


L-R: Sergei Lavrov, United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, and John Kerry in Vienna on Friday (state.gov)

Russia has poured millions of dollars of heavy weapons into Syria, and
is now sending in Russian troops to establish bases in Syria.
Recently, Russia launched 27 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea to
targets in Syria. Iran is pouring new troops into Syria. Iran has
also given Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist group a great deal of money,
and Hezbollah has sent thousands of troops into Syria to support
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Al-Assad's genocidal attacks on innocent Syrian Sunnis, killing
hundreds of thousands and forcing millions from their homes, has cause
Sunni jihadists from all of the world to fight against al-Assad,
Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran in Syria. Along the way, these jihadists
formed the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

And now, on Friday's Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a
pronouncement that Barack Obama was going to trigger a "proxy war" in
Syria by sending in 50 special operations forces, as we reported yesterday.

You can't make this stuff up.

Thanks to Iran, Russia, al-Assad and Hezbollah, there are now tens of
thousands of foreign troops fighting each other in Syria, with
al-Assad in particular supported by massive amounts of foreign
weapons.

But somehow, those tens of thousands of foreign fighters don't make it
a "proxy war," but America's 50 special forces troops do.

You can't trust any garbage that comes out of Lavrov's mouth, or out
of al-Assad's mouth, or out of Vladimir Putin's mouth, but I listen to
BBC, al-Jazeera, FOX, CNN, and other media sources all the time, and I
see these news anchors report this crap with a straight face all the
time. I don't know whether it's more sickening to watch those fatuous
news anchors, or to watch the fawning Secretary of State John Kerry
suck up to Lavrov and Putin, which has happened in issues involving
Ukraine, Iran's nuclear development, and Syria.

All this verbiage is coming out of a meeting in Vienna whose purpose
is to find a "political solution" to the Syria problem. With hundreds
of thousands of Syrian migrants pouring into Europe, and with hundreds
of ISIS militants returning to Russia to fight Putin, there's a lot of
pressure to find a "political solution." But this week's announcement
that Iran will fully enter the war in Syria on the side of the Syrian
regime makes any "political solution" farther away than ever. On the
contrary, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries will never agree to
anything like the emerging situation. Actions by Russia and Iran,
intervening militarily in Syria, is an emerging disaster, likely
triggering a sectarian Sunni versus Shia war throughout the region.
BBC and
International Business Times and Reuters

****
**** Syria's civil war and Generational Dynamics
****

In the 12 years that I've been doing this, I've posted about 4,000
articles with hundreds of Generational Dynamics predictions.

In 2011, when the Syrian civil war began, I said that the war should
fizzle within a year or two. Of all the hundreds of Generational
Dynamics predictions, this is the one where I've clearly been
(depending on how you look at it) either wrong or poorly described.

Syria's last generational crisis war was civil war that climaxed in
1982 with the massacre at Hama. There was a massive uprising of the
400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama against Syria's president Hafez
Assad, the current president's father. In February, 1982, Assad
turned the town to rubble, 40,000 deaths and 100,000 expelled. Hama
stands as a defining moment in the Middle East. It is regarded as
perhaps the single deadliest act by any Arab government against its
own people in the modern Middle East, a shadow that haunts the Assad
regime to this day.

(As a related matter, the civil war in Lebanon also climaxed that
year, with the bloody massacre at Sabra and Shatila occurring in
September 1982. And it occurred as the Iran/Iraq war was ongoing,
three years after Iran's bloody Great Islamic Revolution in 1979. At
that time, much of the Mideast was re-fighting World War I and the
collapse of the Ottoman Empire, 60 years earlier.)

So, in 2011, I said that the civil war in Syria would fizzle, and
could not turn into a crisis civil war. And that's both wrong and
true. There are too many survivors who remember the 1982 slaughter,
and do not want to see it repeated. And so there's been no massive
anti-government uprising, as there was in 1982, and Bashar al-Assad's
Shia/Alawite troops have been fighting half-heartedly, with many
soldiers defecting or deserting.

But the war did not fizzle.

It should have fizzled in 2011 or 2012, but Hezbollah and Iran
starting pouring troops in to support al-Assad. And foreign fighters
from around the world arrived to fight al-Assad and to form ISIS.
That's not something that Generational Dynamics could have predicted.

Earlier this year, it looked like al-Assad's army was near collapse.
In July, a desperate al-Assad gave a national speech
in which he admitted he was losing. The war should
have fizzled this year. But now, Russia and Iran are pouring tens of
thousands more troops into Iran to bolster al-Assad. And that also is
not something that Generational Dynamics could have predicted.

So the problem for me is: How should I have characterized the
situation in 2011? The prediction that it wouldn't turn into a crisis
civil war was correct, but the war did not fizzle, because it turned
into a proxy war.

Well, I don't think there'll be a next time, but if there is, I'll try
to characterize the situation differently, without simply using the
word "fizzle." NPR (1-Feb-2012)

****
**** Generational Dynamics and crisis civil wars
****

I write about a number of civil wars going on in the world today, so
this is a good time to discuss civil wars from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics.

Among generational crisis wars, an external war is fundamentally
different than a civil war between two ethnic groups. If two ethnic
groups have lived together in peace for decades, have intermarried and
worked together, and then there's a civil war where one of these
ethnic groups tortures, massacres and slaughters their next-door
neighbors in the other ethnic group, then the outcome will be
fundamentally different than if the same torture and slaughter is
rendered by an external group. In either case, the country will spend
the Recovery Era setting up rules and institutions designed to prevent
any such war from occurring again. But in one case, the country will
enter the Awakening era unified, except for generational political
differences, and in the other case, the country will be increasingly
torn along the same ethnic fault line.

The period following the climax of a crisis war is called the
"Recovery Era." One path that the Recovery Era can take is that the
leader of one ethnic group decides that the only way to prevent a new
civil war is for him to stay in power, and to respond to peaceful
anti-government demonstrations by conducting massive bloody genocide,
torture and slaughter of the other ethnic group, in order to maintain
the peace. (Dear Reader, I assume you've grasped the irony of the
last sentence.)

For example, in a July article about Burundi,
I described how Burundi's Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza
was using such violence to quell Tutsi protests, supposedly to avoid a
repeat of the 1994 Rwandi-Burundi genocidal war between Hutus and
Tutsis.

As another example, in a June article about Zimbabwe,
I described how Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe
was even worse. His 1984 pacification campaign was known as
"Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before
the spring rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of
Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of
people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were tortured and slaughtered.
Later, Mugabe single-handedly destroyed the country's economy by
driving all the white farmers off the farms, resulting in one of the
biggest hyperinflation episodes in world history.

That's what Bashar al-Assad is doing in Syria. Fearing a Sunni
uprising, like the one in 1982, al-Assad is conducting a massive
"peace campaign" by slaughtering and displacing millions of innocent
Sunnis. As I wrote above, this should have fizzled in 2011 or 2012,
but it's turned into a proxy war, and it's a disaster for the Mideast
and the world.

But none of the above three examples is a crisis civil war. A crisis
war has to come from the people, not from the politicians. So, for
example, there's a massive crisis civil war going on today in Central
African Republic (CAR), between the Muslim ex-Seleka militias fighting
Christian anti-Balaka militias.

Unlike the previous examples, CAR is in a generational Crisis era.
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara
Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago,
putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new
crisis war is increasingly likely. That's why the CAR is a genuine
crisis civil war, and won't fizzle out. In fact, it won't end until
it's reached some kind of explosive conclusion -- of the kind we
described in Hama or Sabra and Shatila. ( "2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war"
)

****
**** Generational Dynamics and war between Palestinians and Israelis
****

I'll discuss one more example -- not a civil war, but very similar to
a civil war, with the same kinds of issues.

In the last few years, there have been three non-crisis wars between
Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza. In each case, the Israelis
destroyed Hamas's infrastructure, ending the war. The war began again
each time when Hamas's infrastructure was rebuilt.

But the point I want to make is that these three non-crisis wars were
all directed by politicians. Palestinians attacked when the
leadership told them to, and stopped attacking when the leadership
told them to stop.

What I've been describing in numerous articles recently is that there
is emerging a major, fundamental, historic change.

In the emerging situation, young people today are no longer willing to
listen to these leaders. According to the CIA World Fact Book, 20% of
Gaza's population are in the 15-24 age range, and so are 21% of the
West Bank -- about 200,000 males in each territory, or 400,000 young
males total.

On the Israeli side, there are over 600,000 young males in the same
age range. There have been unconfirmed reports of young Israelis also
disgusted with the leadership. It's possible that, like the young
Palestinians, they're willing to take matters into their own hands.

So in this environment, what could happen next? The last three Gaza
wars were non-crisis wars, but the next one could be a crisis war
between Israelis and Palestinians.

How can a crisis war begin? How about if those 200,000 young male
Gazans blow holes in the walls, pour across into Israel and start
killing Israeli citizens en masse in their homes and villages?
And how about if they're joined by those 200,000 young male
Palestinians on the West Bank, who start with the Jewish settlers and
continue with the Jews in Jerusalem. And how about if the young
Israeli males strike back and start killing Palestinians in their
homes and villages?

Israel's tanks and bombers would not be of much use. You can't bomb
Jerusalem, and you can't bomb Israeli villages and settlements to kill
Palestinians.

That's the difference. That's what a generational crisis war is like.
It's not two tanks shooting at each other. It's hand to hand combat
in homes, neighborhoods and streets by people armed with sticks and
knives. It's what happened in Central African Republic last year,
it's what happened in Rwanda in 1994, in Bosnia in 1994, and in
Palestine in 1947.

And by the way, that assumes that the bloody mess stays confined to
Israel and the Palestinian territories. The Palestinians are likely
to be joined by tens or hundreds of thousands from Jordan, Lebanon and
Egypt.

The recent widely reported changes in the attitudes and behaviors of
young Palestinians is a sign that this kind generational crisis war is
coming.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Sergei Lavrov, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, John Kerry,
Hafez Assad, Hama 1982, Sabra and Shatila,
Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, Rwanda, Hutus, Tutsis,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Operation Gukurahundi,
Central African Republic, Seleka, anti-Balaka,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Israel, Gaza, Hamas, West Bank, Jerusalem

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 1-Nov-15 World View -- Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war'


****
**** Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war'
****


No shit sherlock, it's been a proxy war all along.

L-R: Sergei Lavrov, United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, and John Kerry in Vienna on Friday (state.gov)

Russia has poured millions of dollars of heavy weapons into Syria, and
is now sending in Russian troops to establish bases in Syria.
Recently, Russia launched 27 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea to
targets in Syria.

Assad is the defacto ruler of Syria and has asked Russia to intervene. There is nothing wrong with the invite nor the actions on the part of the Russians.

Iran is pouring new troops into Syria. Iran has
also given Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist group a great deal of money,
and Hezbollah has sent thousands of troops into Syria to support
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

IOW, more parties in the proxy war.

Al-Assad's genocidal attacks on innocent Syrian Sunnis, killing
hundreds of thousands and forcing millions from their homes, has cause
Sunni jihadists from all of the world to fight against al-Assad,
Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran in Syria. Along the way, these jihadists
formed the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

For the sake of fairness Assad on the House of Saud are two peas in a pod.
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/201...s/saudi-arabia
Of course, we have idiotic Neocons like McCain who've never met a war they didn't like.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...bandar/373181/

And now, on Friday's Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a
pronouncement that Barack Obama was going to trigger a "proxy war" in
Syria by sending in 50 special operations forces, as we reported yesterday.

You can't make this stuff up.

Nope, when somebody calls a spade a spade in public, it's kinda weird.

Thanks to Iran, Russia, al-Assad and Hezbollah, there are now tens of
thousands of foreign troops fighting each other in Syria, with
al-Assad in particular supported by massive amounts of foreign
weapons.

And thanks be to Saudi Arabia,, Kuwait and Qatar as well.

]
But somehow, those tens of thousands of foreign fighters don't make it
a "proxy war," but America's 50 special forces troops do.

True enough. It's already a proxy war, regardless of US feet on the ground, so to speak.

You can't trust any garbage that comes out of Lavrov's mouth, or out
of al-Assad's mouth, or out of Vladimir Putin's mouth, but I listen to
BBC, al-Jazeera, FOX, CNN, and other media sources all the time, and I
see these news anchors report this crap with a straight face all the
time. I don't know whether it's more sickening to watch those fatuous
news anchors, or to watch the fawning Secretary of State John Kerry
suck up to Lavrov and Putin, which has happened in issues involving
Ukraine, Iran's nuclear development, and Syria.

How about McCain, etc?

All this verbiage is coming out of a meeting in Vienna whose purpose
is to find a "political solution" to the Syria problem. With hundreds
of thousands of Syrian migrants pouring into Europe, and with hundreds
of ISIS militants returning to Russia to fight Putin, there's a lot of
pressure to find a "political solution." But this week's announcement
that Iran will fully enter the war in Syria on the side of the Syrian
regime makes any "political solution" farther away than ever. On the
contrary, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries will never agree to
anything like the emerging situation. Actions by Russia and Iran,
intervening militarily in Syria, is an emerging disaster, likely
triggering a sectarian Sunni versus Shia war throughout the region.
BBC and
International Business Times and Reuters

Yup, and in the blind squirrel finding a nut department, Trump has the right idea. Just bail out of Syria and let the Russians take the place over.
Russia can then get the blowback from the upcoming Sunni/Shia kerfuffle.

But the war did not fizzle.

It should have fizzled in 2011 or 2012, but Hezbollah and Iran
starting pouring troops in to support al-Assad. And foreign fighters
from around the world arrived to fight al-Assad and to form ISIS.
That's not something that Generational Dynamics could have predicted.

Earlier this year, it looked like al-Assad's army was near collapse.
In July, a desperate al-Assad gave a national speech
in which he admitted he was losing. The war should
have fizzled this year. But now, Russia and Iran are pouring tens of
thousands more troops into Iran to bolster al-Assad. And that also is
not something that Generational Dynamics could have predicted.

External powers have agendas. The US stepped into it in 'Nam, for example.

So the problem for me is: How should I have characterized the
situation in 2011? The prediction that it wouldn't turn into a crisis
civil war was correct, but the war did not fizzle, because it turned
into a proxy war.

It has parallels to 'Nam.

Well, I don't think there'll be a next time, but if there is, I'll try
to characterize the situation differently, without simply using the
word "fizzle." NPR (1-Feb-2012)

"Like 'Nam"

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> External powers have agendas. The US stepped into it in 'Nam, for
> example.

Please refresh my memory. What was the US agenda in Vietnam?