Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> As for the set of bureaucracies, all should be collapsed into just
> single payer, Medicare.

So, if I understand what you're saying, you want to apply the NHS and
VA financial disasters to Obamacare, turning it into a huge
super-mega-financial-disaster. No wonder the world is headed for a
catastrophe. And by the way, as I've said before, your handle is very
appropriate.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 6-Nov-15 World View -- Obamacare prices skyrocketing in 2016, as I predicted in 2009

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Doctors prepare to strike UK's National Health Service
• Veterans' medical services continue to worsen since 2014 scandal
• Obamacare prices skyrocketing in 2016, as I predicted in 2009
• Kentucky's new governor Matt Bevin promises to end Obamacare abuses
• Four more Obamacare co-ops collapse in the last week
• Obamacare 'risk corridors' are also collapsing financially

****
**** Doctors prepare to strike UK's National Health Service
****


Sign announcing the closure of Kentucky's Nicholas County Hospital because of Obamacare-related bankruptcy (USA Today)

Members of the UK's far left British Medical Association (BMA) labor
union will vote on whether to go on strike on November 18 against the
National Health Service (NHS). The vote was called after the union
rejected a last-ditch pay offer by the UK government that increased
pay by 11% and reducing the maximum work hours per week to 72 from 91.

As I wrote in "5-Aug-15 World View -- Britain's National Health Service (NHS) faces existential financial crisis"
, UK's government-run single-payer health
system is facing a financial disaster, with a deficit of over $3
billion in 2015-16, and growing rapidly. Furthermore, with so much
money involved, the NHS is filled with criminality and fraud. As a
result, the NHS faces cutbacks on staffs, increases in waiting times
for appointments that are already measured in months, and cutbacks in
services.

Because the NHS bureaucracy is so old and bloated, and because the
services are "free," costs can only be controlled by rationing,
queuing, reduced quality and artificial cost suppression. UK's
doctors earn far less than doctors in other countries, and UK
specialists earn about half of what they do in America. As a result,
UK's homegrown doctors have left to work in other countries, and NHS
has had to import 28% of its doctors from abroad, usually from poorer
countries where low UK salaries look attractive. Oxford Mail and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Veterans' medical services continue to worsen since 2014 scandal
****

The American version of Britain's NHA is the Veterans Administration
(VA), a government-run single-payer system providing "free" medical
services to veterans. Last year, a major scandal found major fraud
and criminality in the VA healthcare system, with VA offices
systematically lying about waiting times and treatment outcomes.

Since then, billions of dollars have been poured into the Veterans
Administration, but as in the case of the NHS, the extra tsunami of
money is disappearing, and services are continuing to get worse. At
the Phoenix VA medical center, which was the epicenter of the 2014
scandal, appointment times and fraudulent activities continue to
worsen, with the center using complicated wait-time calculations to
obscure ongoing appointment delays.

According to one whistleblower, "The reality is veterans are waiting
months -- three, six months at a time, sometimes more -- for care at
the Phoenix VA" -- and this includes critical health procedures, such
as colonoscopies.

In August, more than 8,000 requests for care had wait times longer
than 90 days at the Phoenix VA, and even those figures are low because
deceptive methods for measuring wait times.

Even worse, whistleblowers continue to receive vicious retaliatory
treatment for complaining. The Veterans Administration is no longer
in the news every day, but the fraud and criminality is just as bad,
and probably worse. CNN and Military Times and CNN (13-Apr-2015)

****
**** Obamacare prices skyrocketing in 2016, as I predicted in 2009
****


Inflation rate following the imposition of wage-price controls on August 15, 1971 (Source: econreview.com)

In July, 2009, when Obamacare was first announced, I wrote that Obama's health plan is a proposal of economic insanity.
I compared it to President Richard Nixon's
wage-price controls, and I predicted that it would just as much an
economic disaster as Nixon's price controls.

Nixon's price controls were imposed in 1971 because the inflation rate
was around 4%. The purpose of the price controls was to lower the
inflation rate to 2%. It took three years for the inflation rate to
surge to 12%.

In 2009 I said that Obamacare was no different, at its core, than
Nixon's price controls, and that the same kind of disaster would
recur. I repeated that comparison many times. ( "1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed"
) Obamacare was
imposed in 2013, and now it's in its third year, Obamacare prices are
surging.

For the first two years, Obamacare premium price hikes were very
modest, just as the inflation rate was very modest in the first two
years of Nixon's price controls.

But now, for 2016, Obamacare premiums are skyrocketing, again like
Nixon's third year. 231 insurers requested double-digit percentage
premium price hikes for 2016, as opposed to just 121 in
2015. Furthermore, the magnitude of the hikes will be much greater in
the upcoming year. A whopping 126 plans aimed for a minimum 20%
premium hike, 61 plans attempted to justify a 30% premium boost, 26
policies are targeting a 40% price jump, and a dozen plans actually
requested a 50%-plus premium jump for 2016.

Taking all plans into account, premium prices are rising 20.3%, much
worse than the 12% disaster following Nixon's price controls.

Administration officials are bragging that Obamacare premium costs for
the cheapest plan, the Silver Plan, increased only 7.3%. (I recall
similar deceptions argued by Nixon's supporters in the 1970s. That's
like saying that the inflation rate may be 12%, but the price of
tomatoes only rose 7%.) When you look at the entire Obamacare
marketplace, premium prices are rising 20.3%. Forbes and Daily Caller

****
**** Kentucky's new governor Matt Bevin promises to end Obamacare abuses
****

In what is being called a bellwether election, a Tea Party Republican,
Matt Bevin, this week unexpectedly won the election for governor on a
platform that included repeal of Obamacare.

The mainstream media are appalled. Here's what left-wing writer
Jordan Weissmann wrote in Slate:

<QUOTE>"Kentucky voters elected Republican businessman Matt
Bevin as their new governor on Tuesday, which sadly means a whole
lot of people are probably about to lose their health
insurance. The Tea Party favorite has promised to roll back pieces
of the Affordable Care Act that have helped slash Kentucky's
uninsured rate by more than half according to Gallup, the biggest
drop of any state in the country since the law's major planks were
implemented.

Oh well. 'Twas a happy story while it lasted."<END QUOTE>

I can only think that Weissmann is a recent college graduate, that he
majored in something like sociology or women's studies, and that he
can't even spell the word "economics."

Obamacare has been an unmitigated financial disaster for Kentucky, as
I described in my August article, "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history", which I posted after months of extensive research.

I wrote extensively about what happened to Kentucky. Here's a short
list of the devastation:

• Kentucky hospitals are losing $1 billion because of
  Obamacare's Medicaid expansion.
• Most newly insured -- 75% -- use Medicaid, which only pays 82% of
  the actual medical costs, and updates are not keeping up with
  inflation. This is costing hospitals an additional $135 million per
  year.
• Since the onset of Obamacare, bad debts have increased by $200
  million, largely because patients can't afford the $10,000+
  deductibles.
• For every $100 that Obamacare collects in Kentucky, it has to pay
  out $121 to deliver the care. That alone explains why Obamacare is a
  financial disaster for Kentucky.
• Some Medicaid plans pay hospitals on $50 for an emergency room
  visit, even though the services cost thousands of dollars. As a
  result, emergency rooms are going to have to restrict accepting some
  patients on Medicaid.
• Because of Obamacare, there was a 10% reduction in statewide
  hospital workforce, for a loss of 7,700 jobs. Nearly 2/3 of the lost
  jobs were for rural hospitals. Some hospitals will be forced to
  close.

Matt Bevin won because he wants to bring this disaster under control.
Obamacare acolytes like Weissmann are appalled because they're too
stupid to understand simple economics. Louisville (Ky) Courier-Journal and USA Today (8-May-2015) and Slate

****
**** Four more Obamacare co-ops collapse in the last week
****

As I wrote two weeks ago
when the
Colorado Obamacare health insurance co-op collapsed, these co-ops are
almost unbelievably hare-brained entities designed to be non-profit
and provide competition to the evil corporate insurance companies.
(Read my August article for
further details on Obamacare co-ops.)

Co-ops have been paying out $1.10 to $1.60 in benefits for each dollar
they received in insurance premiums. They got away with this because
they were supported by federal Obamacare slush funds - which are now
running out.

During the last week, co-ops collapsed in four states: South Carolina,
Utah, New York, and Michigan. There are 23 Obamacare co-ops in all,
and that makes 12 of them that have collapsed. California Health Line

****
**** Obamacare 'risk corridors' are also collapsing financially
****

Another hare-brained Obamacare scheme is the "risk corridor" program,
which is supposed to collect excess profits from profit-making
insurers, and give the money to insurers losing money. As jaded and
cynical as I am, this thing is so incredibly stupid, even by Obamacare
standards, that I can barely believe it. Once again, read my
August article for further
details.

Just in time for this article, Standard and Poors said on Thursday
that the risk corridor program is facing a massive cash shortage, with
only $1 to cover every $10 in claims.

Once again, it's time to recall the words of that great Obamacare
architect, MIT professor Jonathan Gruber, who said: "Call it the
stupidity of the American voter or whatever. But basically that was
really, really critical to getting the thing to pass." He wasn't
talking about me. He was talking about Obamacare supporters. And he
was absolutely correct. The Hill


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, National Health Insurance, NHS,
Veterans Administration, Obamacare,
Richard Nixon, Nixon's price controls,
Kentucky, Matt Bevin, Obamacare co-ops, Obamacare risk corridors,
Jonathan Gruber

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Not only are O-care premiums rising, so too are non-O-care corporate sponsored ones. The Nixonian point gun at foot and shoot analogy is spot on. Any time there are guaranteed subsidies and demand, just like university education, price inflation is inevitable. Rags' notion of Single Payer would certainly artificially cap the prices in that there could be something like the Postal Service which could be allowed to lose money or best case operate on a slim margin with no shareholders or extremely high paid execs. However, until union representation of government employees is banned like FDR wanted to do, instead of shareholders and execs wanting their cut, the unions fill that role, witness the labor strife you noted in the UK. I've long thought that the real problem was the insurance middle men. Find a way to get them out of the picture while still providing some means to pool risk across subscribers. I look at some of the web based crowd funding scenarios for inspiration. There could be a web based crowd-risk-pool. Get rid of the greedy middle men.

Selfish boomers really need to stop trying to change human nature and allow the strong to exercise their narural rights in regards to holding domination over the weak.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Selfish boomers really need to stop trying to change human nature
> and allow the strong to exercise their narural rights in regards
> to holding domination over the weak.

This is really BS. Boomers are barely alive anymore. Anything that
happens these days, including Obamacare, is all the doing of Xers.

I was talking more about our foreign policy and our policies toward international aid, which are largely still controlled by boomers. They can't just seem to stop giving the store away to foreigners and foreign powers. Our Foreign policy and trade policy should serve AMERICAN interests.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

So, if I understand what you're saying, you want to apply the NHS and
VA financial disasters to Obamacare, turning it into a huge super-mega-financial-disaster.

John, please reread my post. I put some very explicit conditions on how single payer would be implemented and how it would differ from Medicare as it's now structured. I'll go ahead a review the important items here.

1. By "single payer Medicare", I mean just that, everyone and I mean everyone, no exceptions is in the same plan.

I'll That means all government employees from the POTUS on down would have the exact same set of benefits and program I'd have. Private employees, would likewise have the same plan. I'm fine if companies want to kick in extra direct to provider payments for their employees though. My goal is explicit. I wish to Ragnarök insurance companies, all of them, no exceptions because they're nothing but parasites. I see no need for them.

I also mentioned trial lawyers as another set of parasites to control via loser pays.

Finally, Big Pharma or some patent troll tries to jack up medical supplies/drugs, they get whacked as well.

No wonder the world is headed for a catastrophe. And by the way, as I've said before, your handle is very
appropriate.

1. Thanks for the handle compliment.
2. On a related note, all housing related trash also needs to go. Let Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/HUD stuff go bust. Pocket stuffing by stealth by the housing industry needs to end. So yeah, if it takes pressing the reset button to get rid of all this underbrush/cruft, then so be it.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

However, until union representation of government employees is banned like FDR wanted to do, instead of shareholders and execs wanting their cut, the unions fill that role, witness the labor strife you noted in the UK.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0LM1UT20150218
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articl...ts-Are-Fleeing

Yup, once pension liabilities get high enough, public pensions will soon have nobody left to fund them. States that attempt to make everyone a tax donkey soon have lots of folks looking in their U-Haul rear view mirror.

*** 7-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey prepares for winter war with both PKK and ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burundi follows the genocidal path of Mugabe's Zimbabwe
• Turkey's PKK militants end ceasefire after Erdogan vows to 'liquidate' them
• Turkey plans major winter operations against both ISIS and PKK

****
**** Burundi follows the genocidal path of Mugabe's Zimbabwe
****


Burning barricades in Bujumbura, Burundi's capital city (UN)

Bodies are piling up in Bujumbura, the capital city of Burundi, and
now Welly Nzitonda, the son of a prominent human rights defender
Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa was found dead in the streets on Friday. It's
believed that these people were killed by government security forces
under orders of the Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza.

Burundi and Rwanda fought an extremely bloody civil war between ethnic
Tutsis and Hutus in the 1990s, climaxing in 1994 when close to one
million Tutsis were killed by Hutus in a three-month period.
Nkurunziza took office in 2005, and has served for two terms, which is
the maximum allowed under the country's constitution, written during
the post-war Recovery era with the intention of preventing another
civil war.

The current round of violence began in April when Nkurunziza announced
that he would run for a third term, in apparent violation of the
constitution. Young people, mostly Tutsis, began protesting, and were
met by police shooting bullets, tear gas and water cannon. Within
weeks, tens of thousands of people had fled their homes and sought
refuge in neighboring Rwanda or Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Many people fear a return to full-scale violence between Hutus
and Tutsis, as in the 1990s. From the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, that's impossible, since there are too many survivors
of that horrific genocide still alive to ever allow it to happen
again.

Prior to the 1990s, Hutus and Tutsis had lived together, intermarried,
and had their children play with each other. When the 1994 genocide
occurred, a Hutu might pick up a machete, go to the Tutsi home next
door, or down the street, murder and dismember the man and children,
rape the wife and then murder and dismember her. Almost a million
Tutsis were killed.

What's going on in Burundi today is quite different. The violence
today is coming from the politicians, not from the people. Nobody is
picking up a machete and killing the family next door. What is
happening is that, apparently, government security forces are going
around killing anyone who opposes the government.

Several days ago, I wrote a long analysis of the different types of civil wars.
What's
happening in Burundi today is that the crisis civil war between Hutus
and Tutsis ended, and now the Hutu leaders are using violence to stay
in power, allegedly because they fear a return to civil war.

Nkurunziza has not yet resorted to full scale genocidal violence
against his political opponents, but he's on that path, and may be
using Zimbabwe and the savage monster Robert Mugabe as models.
Mugabe's 1984 pacification campaign was known as "Operation
Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring
rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's
5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of people,
mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were tortured and slaughtered. Later,
Mugabe single-handedly destroyed the country's economy by driving all
the white farmers off the farms, resulting in one of the biggest
hyperinflation episodes in world history.

Nkurunziza hasn't gone that far, but he's on that path. Unless he's
willing to give up his third term is president, it's pretty clear that
the demonstrations will increase and the violence will increase.
AFP and AP (1-Oct) and United Nations

****
**** Turkey's PKK militants end ceasefire after Erdogan vows to 'liquidate' them
****

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militant group in Turkey issued a
statement on Thursday ending a unilateral ceasefire that they called
in early October.

The PKK statement said that they had hoped that Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan would soften his position towards the PKK once
his party had won last week's parliamentary relation. Instead,
Erdogan followed the election by saying that the war against the PKK
would continue until they all surrender.

On Thursday of this week, Erdogan gave a strident speech renewing the
threats of violence until every last militant was "liquidated."

The PKK statement referred to Erdogan's governing AKP party:

<QUOTE>"Prior to the election, we took a decision for a
cessation of action. Despite all the attacks, we maintained this
resolve, with one-sided patience. No doubt the fate of this
decision of ours was going to be dependent on the stance of the
Turkish state. The behavior of the AKP government, and the
attacks that have been carried out, have made it plainly clear
that the unilateral cessation of action cannot be maintained.
Consequently, with the AKP's war policy and the attacks that have
taken place, the unilateral cessation of action has
ended."<END QUOTE>

On Friday, Turkey's army says that it killed at least 31 PKK
terrorists in southeastern Turkey Anadolu Agency (Turkey) and Reuters

****
**** Turkey plans major winter operations against both ISIS and PKK
****

In addition to continued war against the PKK, Turkey plans major
winter operations against the the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).

According to Turkey's Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu, the war
against PKK will be fought with the help of the civilian Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG), which is separate from the PKK, and which
has helped to protect many Christian and other refugees in Iraq:

<QUOTE>"The occupation of one third of Iraq, and also vast
areas of Syria, by Daesh [ISIS] has undoubtedly created one of the
most serious challenges.

It has threatened our security and, although the Daesh advance has
been checked with the support of the international effort which we
are a part of, the threat is far from over.

As before, Turkey stands together with Iraq and the KRG in the
fight against [ISIS]. We are determined to continue our military
and humanitarian assistance that has started from the very
beginning of the crisis. As a country that has suffered immensely
from terrorism for so many years and one that hosts more than 2
million refugees, no other country understands the undue burden
that 1.7 million IDPs [internally displaced persons] and refugees,
as well as the war effort against [ISIS], creates on the KRG.

Rest assured that Turkey is steadfast in its support for Iraq and
the KRG in the fight against terrorism. We will continue our
assistance to ease the suffering of so many IDPs and refugees, who
have become victims of a vicious terrorist
organization."<END QUOTE>

ISIS is believed to have been behind recent large suicide bombings in
Ankara and Suruç, targeting Kurds. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Istanbul)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Bujumbura, Pierre Nkurunziza,
Welly Nzitonda, Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa,
Hutus, Tutsis, Rwanda, Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe, Operation Gukurahundi,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Justice and Development Party, AKP,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG,
Feridun Sinirlioglu

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This is really BS. Boomers are barely alive anymore. Anything that
happens these days, including Obamacare, is all the doing of Xers.

lovely and respectful comment there. My mother is VERY much alive and even my early silent grandpa is very much alive.

*** 8-Nov-15 World View -- Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Six months later, Nepal earthquake survivors face winter without shelter
• Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase
• Nepal blames India for economic border blockade

****
**** Six months later, Nepal earthquake survivors face winter without shelter
****


Nepalese students wait for school bus in front of a collapsed house (AP)

Six months have now passed since the two massive earthquakes that
struck Nepal on April 25 and May 12. More 8,800 people were killed,
and 600,000 homes were flattened. Millions of people were left with
inadequate food, clean water and shelter.

The earthquake generated an international rush to provide aid to the
victims. More than $4 billion was donated in the aftermath.

Now the international community has forgotten the earthquake. Each
affected household had been promised $2,000 in aid, but has received
only about $150, barely enough for food. There's no aid for clothing
and shelter to get through the winter.

The earthquake came at a time when the government was in a state of
almost total paralysis, because of a constitutional transition from a
Hindu monarchy to a secular republic, which itself triggered massive
demonstrations and economic blockades by the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu
ethnic group in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India.

In other words, it's been one disaster after another. Already one of
the poorest countries in the world, almost every sector of Nepal's
economy has been cratering. Because of the unavailability of many
goods, inflation has been rampant, as the unemployment rate has
reached 40%. Kathmandu Post and Australia News

****
**** Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase
****

On September 17, Nepal's Constituent Assembly adopted a new
constitution that replaced the Hindu monarchy with a secular republic,
and which marginalized the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu ethnic group
living in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India.

This triggered massive demonstrations by the Madhesis, who blockaded
the truck traffic passing between India and Nepal starting on
September 24. In particular, this cut off the only source of imports
of petroleum and cooking gas to Nepal, as well as many other goods.
There are presently over 6,900 trucks and containers stuck at border
points that the two countries share. Without petroleum, major sectors
of the economy have been shutting down, including manufacturing,
transportation and farming.

Attempts by the Nepali security forces to reopen the borders have been
met with violence, with Nepal police sometimes firing into the crowd.
Dozens of people have been killed.

In a significant development, China has agreed to provide 1.3 million
liters of fuel to Nepal, with 144,000 liters having already arrived.
These are the first-ever supplies of oil from China, and the move
effectively ends India's monopoly over fuel supplies to Nepal.
India Times and VOA

****
**** Nepal blames India for economic border blockade
****

The blockade on the border between Nepal and India began as a protest
by the Madhesi ethnic group, but as the blockade worsened, Nepal's
government began accusing the government of India's president Narendra
Modi of supporting and even participating in the blockade, something
that Modi vehemently denies.

There's no doubt that Modi strongly opposes Nepal's new constitution,
and may even feel betrayed. Shortly after coming to power, Modi
visited Nepal in August 2014, and was warmly received by the entire
population. India was the first country to help Nepal when the
earthquake struck in May. But the relationship soured quickly when
the new constitution was passed.

The mostly-Hindu Madhesis constitute about 40% of Nepal's population.
The new constitution contains clauses specifically designed to limit
the Madhesis' representation in the new parliament to around 10%.
Furthermore, the new constitution contains clauses that are ethnically
offensive, such as denying citizenship to many Madhesis and their
children.

As the date approached to vote on the new constitution, Modi lobbied
the Nepal government make several changes, such as to restore the
wording of the old constitution that calls for "proportional
inclusion" in the government, and to permit citizenship by birth of
naturalization. When the new constitution was passed with none of
these changes, the border blockades began.

According to one Nepalese journalist:

<QUOTE>"India is playing with fire. Instead of encouraging
the Madhesis it should calm tempers and ensure that this problem
is resolved amicably. It is not something that cannot be worked on
and solved to the satisfaction of all. New Delhi will be blamed
if the situation takes an uglier turn."<END QUOTE>

As things stand, the border blockades have been getting worse, with no
end in sight. Kathmandu Post and First Post and Catch News (India) and Indian Express


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, India, Tarai, Madhesi,
China, Narendra Modi

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Originally Posted by Taramarie

lovely and respectful comment there. My mother is VERY much alive and even my early silent grandpa is very much alive.

They're lucky to have you.

*** 9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement
• Iran arrests journalists for allowing U.S. 'infiltration network'
• The coming regime change in Iran

****
**** Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement
****


Women hold anti-U.S. banners commemorating Iran's 1979 attack on the U.S. embassy in Tehran (Reuters)

The signing of the nuclear deal with the West has apparently been the
trigger launching Iran into a growing political crisis between the
"hardliners," generally represented by survivors of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution, and the "moderates," generally the generations
growing up since the Revolution.

Almost all Iranians favor the nuclear deal (the "Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action" or JCPOA), but mainly because it means that the
Western sanctions will be lifted and the economy will improve. This
leads to today's core political conflict in Iran:

• The nuclear agreement clearly states that the sanctions will
  be suspended over time, as Iran implements its part of the agreement,
  and that the sanctions can be reinstated ("snapped back") if Iran
  fails to implement something. An Iranian committee has confirmed that
  the JCPOA says this.
  
• On the other hand, Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei has
  said repeatedly, both before and after the agreement was signed, that
  sanctions must be permanently canceled before Iran implements any of
  its obligations, and that they can never be reinstated.

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani, who is considered a moderate,
responded last week to Khamenei's additional requirements by making a
kind of weasel-worded statement that the “fulfillment of the opposing
party’s commitments” will be monitored with “complete vigilance" and
that the Supreme National Security Council will “adopt the appropriate
decision for the proper course of action” while monitoring the
implementation. Rouhani added that the U.S. and the EU have provided
“written and formal” guarantees of the complete lifting of all
economic and financial sanctions.

As we wrote last week,
Hashemi
Rafsanjani, the head of Iran's Expediency Council and the political
rival of Iranian Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei, was supporting
Rouhani's position and was laying the groundwork for a rebellion
against Khamenei over the nuclear agreement.

Hossein Shariatmadari, managing editor of conservative news outlet
Kayhan, struck back by saying that Rouhani's administration is not
“serious” about implementing the nuclear deal according to Khamenei’s
expressed recommendations.

There's really no middle path through these core differences. Iran's
hardliners have reacted strongly and critically to reports, apparently
untrue, that the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) has already
started dismantling centrifuges under the deal, but this is just one
example of vitriolic arguments that are arising. As new deadlines
approach, the differences will become more explicit. AEI Iran Tracker (22-Oct) and AEI Iran Tracker (28-Oct) and AEI Iran Tracker (3-Nov)

****
**** Iran arrests journalists for allowing U.S. 'infiltration network'
****

Last week, Iranians rallied to celebrate the anniversary of the 1979
attack on the American embassy in Tehran, and taking hostages. At
that celebration, the crowds changed "Death to America!", and Iran's
hardliners coined the phrase "infiltration network" to describe the
treason of allowing American ideas and products to infiltrate Iran's
society.

Once again, this appears to be driven by the nuclear deal, which many
conservative Iranian hardliners bitterly oppose. Allowing the
infiltration of American ideas is interpreted as supporting the
nuclear agreement without imposing Khamenei's new conditions requiring
the immediate permanent cancellation of all sanctions. Demanding the
immediate cancellation of all sanctions is a tool being used by the
hardliners to get the deal completely scuttled.

The hardliners have arrested several journalists, as well as dissident
writers and artists, on charges of supporting the "infiltration
network." However, president Hassan Rouhani has infuriated the
hardliners by saying:

<QUOTE>"Let us not go and arrest one person here, another
there, based on an excuse and without any reason, and then make up
a case and aggrandize it, and finally say this is an infiltration
movement."<END QUOTE>

According to Mehdi Khalaji, an Iran expert at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, the hardliners are now going to crack down hard
on Rouhani:

<QUOTE>“This is the beginning of Rouhani’s end. What we’ll
now see, inside and outside the country, is an Iran that will
pursue a more adversarial policy while the nice, smiling face of
Iran is going to fade."<END QUOTE>

Khalaji's prediction is possible, but extremely unlikely in a
generational Awakening era. Whether Rouhani survives or not, what's
far more likely is that the political conflict will increase, as it
did in America's last generational Awakening era in the 1960s.

A generational Awakening era is always political battle between the
older generation of traumatized survivors of the last generational
crisis war versus the younger generations that grow up after the war
ends. As the older generations retire and die off, the younger
generations take charge and win the political battles. It seems to me
that the hardliners cannot win this current battle, since that would
mean scuttling the nuclear deal completely. Business Insider (4-Nov) and Reuters (4-Nov) and AEI Iran Tracker (5-Nov) and Reuters

****
**** The coming regime change in Iran
****

Ten years ago I predicted, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis,
that Iran would become America's ally. At the time, that prediction
seemed insane, so it's been astonishing to see Iran move step by step
in that direction during the last five years.

For this article, I wanted to go more deeply in the reasoning behind
that prediction ten years ago. In order to do that, I went back
through my archive of news articles that I've cut, pasted and saved
(currently totally about 80,000 articles since the 1990s) to find some
news articles about Iran that influenced me.

Here are some excerpts from a Washington Times article that appeared
on July 11, 2002, about ten months after 9/11:

<QUOTE>"Iranians Stage Pro-American Protest Against
Ayatollahs

"Death to the Islamic Republic, the Taliban of Tehran." This is
the challenge tens of thousands of Iranians chanted to their
government yesterday, marking the third anniversary of peaceful
demonstrations that left students lying dead outside of their
dormitories. The United States should listen to what the people
within Iran are demanding since it may affect the outcome of our
war against terrorism.

The U.S. war against terrorism is about rolling back Islamic
fundamentalism. The enemies of America are not ordinary Muslims
living in Tehran, Istanbul, Baghdad or Dearborn. Those who wish to
see us dead are the self-proclaimed radical Islamists who have
been inspired, supported and funded by the Islamic Republic of
Iran, among others, for more than 23 years. If the United States
is interested in winning the war against terrorism, then it must
pay attention to what happened in Iran yesterday because, for the
first time in 23 years, the people of Iran are taking the lead in
exposing the bankruptcy of Islam as a form of
governance."<END QUOTE>

The article is referring to July 9, 2009, when tens of thousands of
Iranian college students held anti-government protests for six days.
Iran's security forces brutally massacred the students, killing many
of them, and the protests spread to cities across the country. The
above article is about new protests being held on the 3rd anniversary
of those protests.

The next year, the government took some steps to contain the fourth
anniversary of the 1999 massacre. This article is from the Iran Press
Service, dated June 23, 2003:

<QUOTE>"Iran Bans Off Campus Protests

TEHRAN — The Iranian government said on Tuesday that it would not
allow any protests meeting to be held in the future outside
universities.

Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the official spokesman for the government
said, in answer to questions concerning the anniversary of the
student's anti-regime revolt of July 9, 1999, "no further
demonstrations would be allowed outside universities' campuses."

"The Interior Ministry is opposed to any gathering outside
university campuses and no permit has been issued by the
government for holding special commemoration meetings,
Ramezanzadeh stated, adding that however, the government "will not
interfere in any gathering held inside universities." ...

Ramezanzadeh said the government and many students were still
"dissatisfied" since the masterminds of the July 9, 1999 disaster
have not been properly dealt with."

"We expect that those behind recent events and the culprits
involved in the 9 July 1999 crimes, irrespective of their
factional affiliation, are confronted," he added, quoted by the
official news agency IRNA."<END QUOTE>

Here's another article from my archives, from the LA Times on July 2,
2003:

<QUOTE>"Iran Shuts Out Porn, Dissent Web Sites

TEHRAN — Iran is blocking access to Web sites containing
pornographic material and dissent against the country's Islamic
establishment, an official said Tuesday.

More than 140 Web sites promoting dissent, dancing and sex have
been blocked since the crackdown began last month, said Farhad
Sepahram, a Telecommunications Ministry official.

Religious hard-liners are increasingly worried about Iranians'
access to information from the outside world, apparently concerned
that communications are playing a role in stirring reform
sentiment such as the recent anti-government protests by young
people.

Sepahram said most of the blocked Web sites belong to opposition
groups. They include one run by Reza Pahlavi, son of the late
Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who was toppled by the 1979 Islamic
Revolution, and one by Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, Iran's first elected
president after 1979 who now opposes the cleric-dominated
establishment.

Also blocked are the Voice of America's Persian-language service
and radiofarda.com, a U.S.-financed Persian-language audio
program."<END QUOTE>

So how did I know ten years ago that Iran was going to become
America's ally? It was because reading all these articles, and others
like them, made it clear that what was going on in Iran was the same
as what went on in America in the 1960s.

In America's Awakening era in the 1960s, we had girls burning their
bras, marches on Washington, violence in the streets of Los Angeles,
Chicago and Detroit, and student anti-war protests. These are the
kinds of things that are typical of any society 20-30 years after the
end of a generational crisis war. Student protests are particular
common during these eras because the represent the rise of
the first post-war generation.

It was just like that in Iran ten years ago. So I could see that many
college students were protesting against the hardliners, and were
pro-American and pro-Western. (They didn't like America's 2003 ground
invasion of Iraq, and they didn't like President Bush's
characterization of "Axis of Evil," but they were still pro-American
because they really hated their own government more than anything
else.)

And now, of course, those college students are 30-40 years old, and
have moved into positions of power, as I knew ten years ago that they
would. Today, they're the reporters who write the news stories and
are being accused of supporting an "infiltration network" (a phrase
that they undoubtedly think is hilarious), and they're the scientists
working in the nuclear plants.

America's Awakening era finally climaxed in 1974 with the resignation
of Richard Nixon, resulting in a victory of the younger generation
over the older generation. Iran is headed in the same direction. The
Watergate issue triggered the political coup that ousted Richard
Nixon, and it's possible that the nuclear deal may be the trigger for
the eventual coup that ousts Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei and the other
older generation hardliners.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Hassan Rouhani, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mehdi Khalaji,
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA,
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, AEOI,
Richard Nixon, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Farhad Sepahram,
Reza Pahlavi, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Abolhassan Bani-Sadr

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 8-Nov-15 World View -- Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Six months later, Nepal earthquake survivors face winter without shelter
• Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase
• Nepal blames India for economic border blockade

****
**** Six months later, Nepal earthquake survivors face winter without shelter
****


Nepalese students wait for school bus in front of a collapsed house (AP)

Six months have now passed since the two massive earthquakes that
struck Nepal on April 25 and May 12. More 8,800 people were killed,
and 600,000 homes were flattened. Millions of people were left with
inadequate food, clean water and shelter.

The earthquake generated an international rush to provide aid to the
victims. More than $4 billion was donated in the aftermath.

Now the international community has forgotten the earthquake. Each
affected household had been promised $2,000 in aid, but has received
only about $150, barely enough for food. There's no aid for clothing
and shelter to get through the winter.

The earthquake came at a time when the government was in a state of
almost total paralysis, because of a constitutional transition from a
Hindu monarchy to a secular republic, which itself triggered massive
demonstrations and economic blockades by the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu
ethnic group in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India.

In other words, it's been one disaster after another. Already one of
the poorest countries in the world, almost every sector of Nepal's
economy has been cratering. Because of the unavailability of many
goods, inflation has been rampant, as the unemployment rate has
reached 40%. Kathmandu Post and Australia News

****
**** Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase
****

On September 17, Nepal's Constituent Assembly adopted a new
constitution that replaced the Hindu monarchy with a secular republic,
and which marginalized the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu ethnic group
living in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India.

This triggered massive demonstrations by the Madhesis, who blockaded
the truck traffic passing between India and Nepal starting on
September 24. In particular, this cut off the only source of imports
of petroleum and cooking gas to Nepal, as well as many other goods.
There are presently over 6,900 trucks and containers stuck at border
points that the two countries share. Without petroleum, major sectors
of the economy have been shutting down, including manufacturing,
transportation and farming.

Attempts by the Nepali security forces to reopen the borders have been
met with violence, with Nepal police sometimes firing into the crowd.
Dozens of people have been killed.

In a significant development, China has agreed to provide 1.3 million
liters of fuel to Nepal, with 144,000 liters having already arrived.
These are the first-ever supplies of oil from China, and the move
effectively ends India's monopoly over fuel supplies to Nepal.
India Times and VOA

****
**** Nepal blames India for economic border blockade
****

The blockade on the border between Nepal and India began as a protest
by the Madhesi ethnic group, but as the blockade worsened, Nepal's
government began accusing the government of India's president Narendra
Modi of supporting and even participating in the blockade, something
that Modi vehemently denies.

There's no doubt that Modi strongly opposes Nepal's new constitution,
and may even feel betrayed. Shortly after coming to power, Modi
visited Nepal in August 2014, and was warmly received by the entire
population. India was the first country to help Nepal when the
earthquake struck in May. But the relationship soured quickly when
the new constitution was passed.

The mostly-Hindu Madhesis constitute about 40% of Nepal's population.
The new constitution contains clauses specifically designed to limit
the Madhesis' representation in the new parliament to around 10%.
Furthermore, the new constitution contains clauses that are ethnically
offensive, such as denying citizenship to many Madhesis and their
children.

As the date approached to vote on the new constitution, Modi lobbied
the Nepal government make several changes, such as to restore the
wording of the old constitution that calls for "proportional
inclusion" in the government, and to permit citizenship by birth of
naturalization. When the new constitution was passed with none of
these changes, the border blockades began.

According to one Nepalese journalist:

<QUOTE>"India is playing with fire. Instead of encouraging
the Madhesis it should calm tempers and ensure that this problem
is resolved amicably. It is not something that cannot be worked on
and solved to the satisfaction of all. New Delhi will be blamed
if the situation takes an uglier turn."<END QUOTE>

As things stand, the border blockades have been getting worse, with no
end in sight. Kathmandu Post and First Post and Catch News (India) and Indian Express


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, India, Tarai, Madhesi,
China, Narendra Modi

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I've often wondered if the Prince who blew the heads off the rest of the Royal Family a few years ago was recruited by the ErBu to start the seeds of decay in the Kingdom of Nepal.

*** 10-Nov-15 World View -- Catalonia parliament votes to secede from Spain

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Catalonia parliament votes to secede from Spain
• Israel's Netanyahu promises Obama to implement two-state solution

****
**** Catalonia parliament votes to secede from Spain
****


Marta Rovira votes for secession from Spain in Catalonia's parliament on Monday (Getty)

Spain faces a new governing crisis after the parliament of
Catalonia voted on Thursday to "open a process" to secede
from spain within 18 months.

Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy said that an appeal will be made
Constitutional Court to invalidate the vote, adding "I understand that
many Spaniards have had a bellyful of this continued attempt to
delegitimize our institutions." However, the Catalan politicians say
that they will disobey Constitutional Court rulings. Irish Times and Reuters

****
**** Israel's Netanyahu promises Obama to implement two-state solution
****

For years, every event related to the Mideast "peace process" has been
bizarre in some way, and Monday's was no exception.

Visiting Washington, Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu said the
following to president Barack Obama:

"I want to make clear that we have not given up our hope for
peace. We will never give up our hope for peace.

I remain committed to a vision of two states for two peoples, a
demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes the Jewish state.
I don’t think that anyone should doubt Israel’s determination to
protect itself and defend itself against terror and
destruction. But neither should anyone doubt Israel’s willingness
to make peace with any of its neighbors who want to make peace
with it."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

It's bizarre because the fact that it was even necessary to say that
there is a "hope for peace." This was necessary because of the
intense personal hatred between Obama and Netanyahu, as reflected
occasion unofficial remarks that occasionally leak out from either
administration. A member of Netanyahu's cabinet was recently reported
to have said that Obama is anti-Semitic, which he and other Netanyahu
administration members undoubtedly believe. And the Obama
administration has frequently leaked accusations that Netanyahu
personally is fully to blame for not reaching a peace deal with the
Palestinians, which is why Netanyahu chose to make the statement about
"hope for peace."

When you zoom out to look at the entire "peace process," the desire
for the two-state solution -- "a vision of two states for two
peoples," as Netanyahu put it -- is even more bizarre.

In May 2003, president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" calling for
the two-state solution -- a Palestinian state by 2005, side by side
with Israel. The plan was sponsored by the United States, Russia, the
European Union, and the United Nations. It provided a series of steps
for both sides to follow, mostly having to do with eliminating
violence against both Palestinian and Israeli civilians. The solution
was to be implemented by 2005.

The 2003 plan was a adaptation of a Clinton administration plan.
Since 2003, President Bush's plan has been tweaked in various ways by
both the Bush and Obama administrations, and presented each time as a
new plan that would bring peace to the Mideast and joy to the world.
And it's failed each time.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize it's never going to
work, and that trends in the Mideast are going towards war, not a
peace process. In recent years, wars have begun in Libya, Yemen,
Syria and Iraq; the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) has risen in Syria, and has spread to other countries in the
Mideast Northern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Russia's Caucasus
provinces. The new "Oslo Generation"
of young Palestinians is using knives for random
attacks on Israelis, and they declare that they have no use for their
own leadership. Anyone can see that trend is away from a "peace
process" towards war.

In 2003, there might have been some real hope that a peace deal could
be achieved, but today, no one who follows the news could seriously
believe that there's any chance the peace process would succeed. In
fact, a White House spokesman said last week that the administration
now believes that no peace deal will be reached before Obama leaves
office:

<QUOTE>"This is really the first time since the first term of
the Clinton administration where we have an administration that
faces a reality where the prospect of a negotiated two-state
solution is not in the cards for the time that’s remaining. That
was not the case until now."<END QUOTE>

Well, this is unusual - the Obama administration "facing reality," and
saying so. And that makes Netanyahu's statement on Monday even more
bizarre, since "a vision of two states for two peoples, a
demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes the Jewish state"
reflects no reality whatsoever. USA Today and McClatchy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Mariano Rajoy,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu

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The inadequacy of the boomers as leaders would be analyzed by using historical examples from Peloponnesian war era Athens to compare leadership archetypes: Boomers ever since they became dominant in power in the early 1990s have followed guaranteed failed policies, they have in my opinion have largely followed "periclean" policies. Pericles was the Athenian leader at the first few years of the Peloponnesian war and is known to have followed a defensive strategy and a diplomatic strategy of showing moderation in order it was hoped to show the city-states that Sparta, not Athens was the aggressor. After his death in 429 BC, the Athenians abandoned this strategy and began a strategy of invasions of pro-Spartan cities under their new leader Cleon who advocated and carried out a much more aggressive strategy. Today boomers impose policies on the populace in order to outline America as a "tolerant society willing to take in the world's downtrodden". A foremost example of boomer failure as leaders as I mentioned numerous times before was their refusal to launch nuclear strikes against Muslim cities and population centers immediately after 9/11.

Back to ancient Athens, after Cleon took the helm the Athenians won a string of major victories, however later on a split occurred between him and another general, Nicias who favored a compromise peace; later on when cleon was killed a major battle in which the Spartan general brasidas was also killed, the Athenians and Spartans in 421 BC signed a peace treaty. Nicias played a major role in making this treaty as a result it is known to history as the peace of Nicias. In the end the peace of Nicias turned out to be a truce, ending in 414/413 BC. However why it failed is one of the main purposes of this argument: A new leader from a younger generation Alcibiades began to rise in power around the time the peace of Nicias, He argued, correctly in my opinion that it would have been a sign of weakness to make the proposed compromises that Nicias was offering to the Spartans. The peace was controversial in the Spartan sphere of influence as well; when several of Sparta's allies formed a league against her, Alcibiades convinced the Athenians to join in the proposed campaign, which was opposed by Nicias who that to do so was a direct violation of the peace Athens made with Sparta. This resulted in the battle of Mantinea in 418 BC. Nicias opposed all of this saying Athens should remain neutral and even advocating a joint campaign with Sparta against the allies in order to show Athens' good faith. A few years later Alcibiades rallied the Athenians again, in 416 BC he convinced Athens to launch a campaign against several of Sparta's minor allies, most prominent of these was Melos, it was in this campaign that the famous "Melian dialogue" occurred: Here the Athenian generals told the Melians that their city would be destroyed and the populace sold into slavery if they did not submit, when the Melians objected to the Athenian demands the Athenians told them basically that Athens was the strongest power in Greece and that Melos was puny compared to it, therefore the Melians had no right to reject the Athenian demands. When the Melians chose to fight, the Athenians stormed the city massacred the men and sold the women and children into slavery. Finally Alcibiades was able to organize the Sicilian expedition which had a high chance of success had not the peace party carried out a coup as a result of which Alcibiades was forced to go into exile. This blunder marked the beginning of the Athenian retreat ending with its surrender in 404 BC.

The relevance of this to current politics is that the boomers refuse to allow the Xers and millies influence on government policy, since the silent and the boomers refuse to allow policy to have a backbone. Or to make minor concessions in order to free up forces for major advances elsewhere. For example whenever boomers sign a treaty with a foreign power even it is regarded a prejudicial to US interests, they generally try to keep to said treaties. Hence the boomers signed the START and SORT nuclear treaties with Russia even allowing Russian inspectors and spy-plane flyovers over our bases even though Russia continues to maintain large nuclear forces against us. The notion of signing a treaty and carrying out secret buildups of forces and war materiel away from prying eyes is foreign to the baby boomer. The boomers mostly follow the Periclean/Nician way of carrying out policy. We Millies and Xers oppose this and demand a more Cleon/Alcibiadian America. The boomers decision to nation-build in the middle east drew us into an unprofitable war which gradualy sapped our morale leading to opposition against our involvement. If Xers and Millies were governing and 9/11 occurred, instead of nation-building the retaliation would have taken the form of a quick and brutal retaliation campaign in which the muslim cities, military bases and population centers would have been destroyed in successive nuclear salvoes followed by a massive blitzkrieg style ground campaign which would have been followed by the reorganization of the entire Mideast into military administrative regions.

The argument above is also one of the main reasons many Xers in particular support Donald Trump as president. Because trump has indicated that he would make America great again. As he has announced several times before, he has vowed to turn back refugees heading for America. The reason for this is because the policies of the last few administrations has made us look weak in the eyes of the world. Were seen as decadent weaklings who would just accept anyone's downtrodden and poor. Trump is arguing that we adopt a policy for example in Syria, rather than trying to stop the killing, instead we should arm both sides and draw profits. I see nothing wrong with turning back refugees, because it is their suffering, since they are not our people, trump has noted, Why should we care.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Boomers ever since they became dominant in power in the early
> 1990s have followed guaranteed failed policies, they have in my
> opinion have largely followed "periclean" policies. ...

> The argument above is also one of the main reasons many Xers in
> particular support Donald Trump as president. Because trump has
> indicated that he would make America great again.

You've provided your own response. You dislike actions that Boomers
have taken. But then you leap like a trout to the fly to grab at
empty promises by Trump. Any snake oil salesman could get your vote
by making empty promises that you want to hear, which is what Obama
did. It's always easier to make promises than to take the actions
necessary to fulfill them.

Yet here you say that trump is offering snake-oil, in what way? What other candidates have a decent vision to lead us, Clinton? The likely policies she would follow is that of a Pericles or a Nicias on in a more modern era a Churchill. An Alcibiades, or a napoleon is was we need instead.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Yet here you say that trump is offering snake-oil, in what way?
> What other candidates have a decent vision to lead us, Clinton?
> The likely policies she would follow is that of a Pericles or a
> Nicias on in a more modern era a Churchill. An Alcibiades, or a
> napoleon is was we need instead.

I've often said that Hillary would have been a better president than
Obama, since she has some clue what's going on in the world because
her husband was in the White House for 8 years. Among the Republican
candidates I really don't know, but I would tend to favor Bush because
his brother and father were in the White House for 12 years, and so
he's likely to have some clue what's going on in the world as well.

However, anything that any candidate says in a speech or debate should
be assumed to be bullsh-t, because it almost always is.

Trump concerns me because of what I think of as the "Hitler
phenomenon," where young people vote for him even though he's crazy
because he stokes nationalism in a dangerous way.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I've often said that Hillary would have been a better president than
Obama, since she has some clue what's going on in the world because
her husband was in the White House for 8 years. Among the Republican
candidates I really don't know, but I would tend to favor Bush because
his brother and father were in the White House for 12 years, and so
he's likely to have some clue what's going on in the world as well.

However, anything that any candidate says in a speech or debate should
be assumed to be bullsh-t, because it almost always is.

Trump concerns me because of what I think of as the "Hitler
phenomenon," where young people vote for him even though he's crazy
because he stokes nationalism in a dangerous way.

What's wrong with nationalism? You and the other boomers on this forum for the most part have a distinct aversion to it.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> What's wrong with nationalism? You and the other boomers on this
> forum for the most part have a distinct aversion to it.

This is where you see generational differences take hold. Those who
survived World War II, or who grew up in its shadow -- Silents and
Boomers -- see nationalism in Germany, Italy and Japan as a specific
evil that caused World War II, and the deaths of hundreds of millions
of people. I can still remember being told about this in school in
the 1950s.

In the 1950s things like hatred, xenophobia and nationalism were taken
seriously. Today, they're just huge jokes used by millennials, Xers,
and pandering Boomers, whose only purpose is to use them as a club
against a political opponent. People today don't realize how powerful
and dangerous these emotions can be. It's something that I always try
to emphasize in my World View articles.

*** 11-Nov-15 World View -- Global trade plunges as China's economy becomes deflationary

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Price/earnings index surges as earnings and profits contract
• China's import and export trade volumes plummet as deflation takes hold

****
**** Price/earnings index surges as earnings and profits contract
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio surges to 23.41 in last two weeks from 10/23 to 11/6, indicating a rapidly enlarging stock market bubble. (WSJ)

Companies listed in the S&P 500 index are looking at the third
straight quarter of steep profit contraction. Third quarter profits
fell about 15% from a year ago.

It is the third consecutive quarter in which earnings per share have
fallen. In the second quarter, earnings contracted by 16%. In the
first quarter, they fell 12.8%.

Sales numbers have also been consistently down, contracting down about
4%, falling in every quarter this year.

The result is that the S&P 500 price/earnings index has been surging.
According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (November 6) was at 23.41. The
last time I posted it was just a couple of weeks ago, when it was
22.07 on October 23. In just two weeks, it went from an
astronomically high 22.07 to a super-astronomically high 23.41,
thanks to the plunging profits and earnings.

This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the
stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6
range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting
in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. WSJ blogs

****
**** China's import and export trade volumes plummet as deflation takes hold
****


People's Bank of China

Overseas shipments from China dropped 6.9% in October, a much bigger
decline than expected. Even bigger was the 18.8% plunge in imports
from other countries into China. The sharp decline in imports to and
exports from the world's second-biggest economy and "the economic
engine of the world" is a sign of collapsing global trade, something
that last happened in 2008 along with the financial crisis of that
time.

At the same time, deflation is taking hold in China. The consumer
price index (CPI) rose 1.3% in October, below the 1.5% that economists
expected. But the biggest deflationary signal was the producer price
index (PPI), representing prices paid by factories for commodities or
components -- that plunged 5.9%, its 44th straight monthly decline.

Many economists say that these figures will motivate China's
central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), to "print" a lot
more money by means of massive quantitative easing (QE). Pouring
money into the economy will supposedly end deflation, cause
inflation, and stimulate growth. However, that hasn't worked
when it was tried in the past. The main effect of China's QE
was to feed into China's three huge bubbles: a credit bubble,
a real estate bubble, and a stock market bubble. Some of these
bubbles have already started bursting in recent months, and
the PBOC will try to blow these bubbles up again.

Changes in China's economy affect economies around the world,
including the American economy. U.S. import prices fell 0.5%
in October, after falling 0.6% in September, much farther than
economists expected. China is said to be "exporting deflation"
to the United States.

There are several reasons why U.S. import prices are falling. The
deflationary trend in China, especially in the PPI, is one reason.
Second, global oil prices and other energy prices have been falling
sharply, and that affects almost everything.

The third reason is that with China and other nations devaluing their
currencies through QE, the US dollar has been getting stronger and
stronger, allowing an American using dollars to purchase more foreign
goods than before, at lower prices as measured in dollars. Deflation
trends are occurring in many countries, including America, and
deflation tends to strengthen a currency domestically. But with other
countries using QE, the dollar is also getting stronger
internationally, compared to other currencies. Bloomberg and LiveMint (China) and Business Insider (9-Jul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, People's Bank of China

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*** 12-Nov-15 World View -- EU and African leaders clash amid accusations of 'Fortress Europe'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arms race grows between Serbia and Croatia
• EU and African leaders clash amid accusations of 'Fortress Europe'
• Sweden, Slovenia and Denmark take steps to block the migrant flow

****
**** Arms race grows between Serbia and Croatia
****


Serb football (soccer) fans. For reasons of security, Serb fans were banned from Croatia home games versus Serbia in the World Cup qualifying competitions in 2013. (Croatia Week)

Of the seven countries that formerly comprised Yugoslavia, Slovenia
joined NATO in 2004 and Croatia in 2009, while Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Montenegro and Macedonia are aspiring members of Nato. On the other
hand, Serbia has expressed no interest in membership in Nato, and it's
a foreign policy objective of Russia to keep it that way.

Russia and Serbia have close ties that date back centuries. They're
both Orthodox Christian countries, and they were allies in World War
I, which was launched in 1914 when a Serb, Gavrilo Princip, shot and
killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian
empire, and his pregnant wife Sophie. Gavrilo Princip is still
considered by Serbs to be a national Serb hero.

Neighboring Croatia, in cooperation with the US, recently launched a
weapons procurement program that includes sixteen Kiowa combat
helicopters and sixteen 240-millimeter ballistic missile launchers
with a 200-mile range.

Russia is going to provide Serbia with weapons to maintain the balance
of power. Russia has agreed to refurbish four Serbian Air Force
MiG-29s and ten MiG-21s, and will provide Serbia with several
state-of-the-art Mi-17 and Mi-171 helicopters.

According to Serbia's President Aleksander Vucic, "We are following
what is happening in the region and will not allow a military
imbalance." Jamestown

****
**** EU and African leaders clash amid accusations of 'Fortress Europe'
****

European and African leaders clashed on Wednesday at a summit meeting
in Malta called to discuss the continuing flow of migrants from Africa
to Europe. The summit was planned in April, just after 800 migrants
traveling from Libya to Europe drowned after the boat provided by
human traffickers sank. The two-day summit is proceeding anyway, even
though the problem of migrants arriving by boat from Libya is being
dwarfed by the arrival of some 650,000 people, mostly Syrians, via
Turkey and Greece.

The position of the African leaders is that the main problem
is that the European Union does not provide enough ways for
migrants to come to Europe and remain legally.

According to African Union chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma:

<QUOTE>"We have to industrialize and modernize our continent
otherwise young people will continue to go elsewhere. ... The
problem we are facing today is in part because some countries in
Europe have taken a fortress approach."<END QUOTE>

In other words, when the day comes that Africa is as economically
prosperous as Europe, then there won't be a problem. But until that
day arrives, if ever, then the problem is that "Fortress Europe" is
preventing African migrants from staying in Europe.

One EU administrator agreed that most migrants are coming to
Europe for economic reasons:

<QUOTE>"There is no secret that the Africans are looking for
opportunity for legal migration, work permits and these kinds of
things, while the Europeans are focusing more on returns and
readmission."<END QUOTE>

However, EU negotiators have different objective: so-called "return
and readmission agreements" that provide a way for the EU to deport
people back to their home countries. According to Belgium's prime
minister Charles Michel:

<QUOTE>"We believe we must both combat illegal immigration,
combat traffickers, we believe we must also progress in the field
of return and readmission policies. In exchange, the European
countries must be mobilized for more economic development support,
humanitarian support, and also more support to allow for, as an
example, exchanges of students to enable the exchange of
researchers, which is also important for the future."<END QUOTE>

As a carrot, the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm, is
setting up a &euro;1.8-billion "trust fund" for Africa.
However, no agreement was reached on the conflicting objectives.

France's president François Hollande singled out Eritrea for
particular criticism, as the country providing the most migrants
fleeing to Europe:

<QUOTE>"Nobody is talking about it. It is a country that is
becoming empty of its own population with unscrupulous leaders who
let their people go."<END QUOTE>

Hollande called for Eritrea "maximum pressure" to be applied to the
country's leaders to mend the situation.

Malta is an appropriate place to be holding the two-day summit, as
it's a tiny island in the Mediterranean Sea between Sicily and the
North African coast. AFP and EU Observer (4-Nov) and VOA

****
**** Sweden, Slovenia and Denmark take steps to block the migrant flow
****

Sweden, which had formerly been welcoming to migrants fleeing from the
war in Syria announced on Wednesday that it would close its borders
and impose border controls. In the past, most migrants seeking asylum
have headed to Germany or Sweden, the two countries regarded as the
most welcoming.

According to Sweden's Interior Minister Anders Ygeman, the purpose of
closing the borders is to motivate other EU countries:

<QUOTE>"Our signal to the EU is crystal clear: Sweden is the
country that has taken the greatest responsibility for the refugee
crisis. The other countries have to take their
responsibility."<END QUOTE>

Slovenia began erecting a razor-wire fence along its border with
Croatia Wednesday as dozens of refugees staged a hunger strike in a
Czech Republic detention center. Army trucks laden with wire fencing
began constructing the fence along Slovenia's Croatian border. Reuters
reported about 1.2 miles of fencing had been erected by 6:30 a.m. EST.

In the past, migrants would travel from Turkey to Greece, and then
through Macedonia and Serbia, before crossing over into Hungary, with
Germany the objective. When Hungary closed its borders a few weeks
ago, Serbia diverted the flow of migrants into Slovenia, through which
they could also travel to Germany. But now Slovenia is taking the
same steps that Hungary took, and is closing its own border with
Serbia.

The flow of migrants has not slowed with the approach of winter, with
thousands of new migrants arriving every day. The nightmare
humanitarian disaster that many people fear is that tens of thousands
of migrants will be trapped at a border crossing with no food or
shelter as winter temperatures fall.

Denmark on Wednesday announced plans to make it easier to deport
migrants who have no legal grounds for staying. According to
Denmark's Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen:

<QUOTE>"The pressure is usually lighter in the winter, but
the opposite is happening now. Countries around us are tightening
conditions. ... For that reason as well we need to take another
step in Denmark if we want to protect Denmark."<END QUOTE>

An opposition party leader lauded the move: "The government has
finally come to the conclusion that the current situation is not
sustainable for Denmark." Malta Independent and International Business Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Serbia, Croatia, Gavrilo Princip,
Russia, Nato, Aleksander Vucic,
Malta, African Union, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, France,
Libya, Turkey, Greece, Belgium, François Hollande, Charles Michel,
Sweden, Anders Ygeman, Slovenia, Hungary, Macedonia,
Denmark, Lars Lokke Rasmussen,

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*** 13-Nov-15 World View -- ISIS claims credit for suicide attack on Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS claims credit for suicide attack on Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon
• Commodities and stocks continue to plunge

****
**** ISIS claims credit for suicide attack on Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon
****


Soldiers and civilians gather at site of Thursday's suicide bombing in Beirut (AP)

Two coordinated suicide bombings on Thursday struck a neighborhood of
southern Beirut, the capital city of Lebanon. The neighborhood was a
Shia Muslim stronghold of Hezbollah, which was apparently the target.
The bombs killed dozens and wounded hundreds, and were obviously
designed to inflict as much carnage as possible.

There was a string of terrorist bombings in Beirut targeting Hezbollah
following the announcement on April 30, 2013, by Hezbollah leader
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah that Hezbollah would militarily enter the fight
in Syria on the side of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. The Abdullah Azzam Brigades and other al-Qaeda-linked
terrorists claimed credit for one of those bombings.

However, those were the days before the rise of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria. Credit for Thursday's
bombings was claimed by ISIS, and is presumed to be revenge for
Hezbollah's military intervention into Syria.

However, it's not always clear what it means to say that ISIS claims
credit for a terrorist bombing. ISIS also recently claimed credit for
the recent downing Metrojet Flight 9268, the Russian passenger plane,
over Egypt, saying that it was revenge for Russia's military
intervention into Syria.

It still hasn't been officially confirmed that flight 9268 was brought
down by a bomb, but if it was brought down by an ISIS bomb, then it
was actually brought down by the terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
(ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which has conducted
numerous attacks in Egypt's Sinai, along the border with Israel and
Gaza. ABM was originally pledged to al-Qaeda, but last year it
repudiated that allegiance and declared allegiance to ISIS. At that
time it changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai).
BBC
and AP and CNN

****
**** Commodities and stocks continue to plunge
****

As I wrote three days ago in "11-Nov-15 World View -- Global trade plunges as China's economy becomes deflationary"
, earnings and profits for Wall
Street stocks have been falling sharply, as have indicators
of global trade.

All of these factors continue to have their effects on Wall Street
stock prices, which fell 1.4% on Thursday, the largest plunge in
weeks. Stocks have fallen six out of the last seven days, though they
have not yet fallen to the level that they reached in the huge slump
that occurred in August.

It's a good idea to keep any idea on this situation. As I've been
pointing out for years, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is astronomically high,
indicating a
huge Wall Street stock market bubble that's going to burst at some
point, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to 3000 or lower
by the time it's over. It's impossible to predict exactly when the
panic will occur that will begin that collapse, and it's not certain
that the deteriorating global financial situation will cause it at
this time. But one thing that we can say is that when this panic
finally occurs, it will almost certainly follow exactly this kind of
global situation.

Because of plunging commodity prices, many analysts are predicting
that stocks will continue to fall in the next few days. AP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Sinai, Metrojet Flight 9268, Russia,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Abdullah Azzam Brigades,
commodities, earnings

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Looks like migration-and razor wire fences-are part of this Crisis era.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 13-Nov-15 World View -- ISIS claims credit for suicide attack on Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS claims credit for suicide attack on Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon
• Commodities and stocks continue to plunge

****
**** ISIS claims credit for suicide attack on Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon
****


Soldiers and civilians gather at site of Thursday's suicide bombing in Beirut (AP)

Two coordinated suicide bombings on Thursday struck a neighborhood of
southern Beirut, the capital city of Lebanon. The neighborhood was a
Shia Muslim stronghold of Hezbollah, which was apparently the target.
The bombs killed dozens and wounded hundreds, and were obviously
designed to inflict as much carnage as possible.

There was a string of terrorist bombings in Beirut targeting Hezbollah
following the announcement on April 30, 2013, by Hezbollah leader
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah that Hezbollah would militarily enter the fight
in Syria on the side of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. The Abdullah Azzam Brigades and other al-Qaeda-linked
terrorists claimed credit for one of those bombings.

However, those were the days before the rise of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria. Credit for Thursday's
bombings was claimed by ISIS, and is presumed to be revenge for
Hezbollah's military intervention into Syria.

However, it's not always clear what it means to say that ISIS claims
credit for a terrorist bombing. ISIS also recently claimed credit for
the recent downing Metrojet Flight 9268, the Russian passenger plane,
over Egypt, saying that it was revenge for Russia's military
intervention into Syria.

It still hasn't been officially confirmed that flight 9268 was brought
down by a bomb, but if it was brought down by an ISIS bomb, then it
was actually brought down by the terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
(ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which has conducted
numerous attacks in Egypt's Sinai, along the border with Israel and
Gaza. ABM was originally pledged to al-Qaeda, but last year it
repudiated that allegiance and declared allegiance to ISIS. At that
time it changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai).
BBC
and AP and CNN

****
**** Commodities and stocks continue to plunge
****

As I wrote three days ago in "11-Nov-15 World View -- Global trade plunges as China's economy becomes deflationary"
, earnings and profits for Wall
Street stocks have been falling sharply, as have indicators
of global trade.

All of these factors continue to have their effects on Wall Street
stock prices, which fell 1.4% on Thursday, the largest plunge in
weeks. Stocks have fallen six out of the last seven days, though they
have not yet fallen to the level that they reached in the huge slump
that occurred in August.

It's a good idea to keep any idea on this situation. As I've been
pointing out for years, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is astronomically high,
indicating a
huge Wall Street stock market bubble that's going to burst at some
point, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to 3000 or lower
by the time it's over. It's impossible to predict exactly when the
panic will occur that will begin that collapse, and it's not certain
that the deteriorating global financial situation will cause it at
this time. But one thing that we can say is that when this panic
finally occurs, it will almost certainly follow exactly this kind of
global situation.

Because of plunging commodity prices, many analysts are predicting
that stocks will continue to fall in the next few days. AP and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Sinai, Metrojet Flight 9268, Russia,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Abdullah Azzam Brigades,
commodities, earnings

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Here's something potentially ISIS related right here in the backyard of me, EtG and perhaps a few others. Remember that attack at UC Merced a while back? Well, they found a manifesto on the attacker. It appears to have significant ISIS inspired elements in it. If the attacker had not been stopped there would have been beheadings as part of the attack. BTW, the attacker's parents live in Santa Clara (yep, right near Levi's Stadium). To be honest it is no surprise we likely have ISIS cells or at least wanna bes right here in the tolllllllllllllllerant Bay Area. Our demographics are not completely different from Greater London although we have more Latinos in our mix.

I once walked from a friend's apartment in the 18e down along the canal, into the 10e. I bought some Christmas ornaments, hand formed Pewter. Then, onto a "hipster" resto/bar, then meeting some friends at a club, very near the concert hall where dozens perished today. My heart is injured for Paris. Nothing will ever be the same.