Will agree to disagree, in that case. Since you think that the Turks and the West will be on opposite sides, are you expecting Turkey to get the boot from NATO soon(ish), NATO to cease to exist, or something else?Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
As I said previously, today you can get a house for 5% down at low
interest rates, which is not an "obscene" amount of money, so if
you're whining about not being able to buy a house, then I assume you
haven't bothered to save any money.
Now I know why:
Except for avoiding the stock market, this is one of the stupidest> 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author: Why millennials shouldn’t save
> The author of financial best-seller "Rich Dad Poor Dad" has some
> unusual advice for millennials in his new book: Saving is for
> losers.
> "You cannot follow your parents' rules of money," said Robert
> Kiyosaki, who this year published a fresh tome, Second Chance: For
> Your Money, Your Life and Our World. "The old rules were you go to
> school, you get a job, you work hard, you save money and you
> invest for the long term in the stock market."
> But now, he says, the rules are now reversed.
>
> "Savers are losers. And many parents are still telling their kids
> to save money," he told CNBC. "Why would you save money when every
> central bank is printing money? ...
> When I was a millennial, I could get 15 percent interest on my
> money. Today, I'm lucky to get one percent."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/23/rich-...ldnt-save.html
things I've ever read. This guy is so stupid that he doesn't even
know that he's a Boomer, and that he's never been a millennial.
No wonder Millennials are in such trouble, listening to idiot Boomers
like this. Millennials should be saving money as much money as
possible, instead of just using every available penny to buy one shiny
thing after another.
Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 11-25-2015 at 01:49 PM.
The SCO is not going to break up. Russia and China will not be on opposite sides and The West will never ally with either of these Anti-Western Fiends. The SCO is the "Single Clenched Fist" and that fist is heading straight at us.*** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Putin calls Turkey's downing of Russian plane a 'stab in the back'
- Turkmen in Syria versus Russians in occupied Crimea
- Russia - Turkey crisis evokes memories of centuries of Crimean wars
****
**** Putin calls Turkey's downing of Russian plane a 'stab in the back'
****
Florence Nightingale, the world's first nurse, tending to wounded soldiers during the Crimean War in 1854
On Tuesday, two Turkish F-16s were involved in the shooting down of a
Russian warplane in Syria near the border with Turkey. According to
Turkey's military, the Russian aircraft was warned 10 times in five
minutes that it was violating Turkish airspace.
In addition, one of the Russian pilots was shot dead from the ground
by ethnic Turkmens as he was parachuting to earth. A Russian marine
was also shot down during the rescue operation.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin called Turkey's downing of the
fighter jet "a stab in the back" carried out by the accomplices of
terrorists, alluding to previous accusations that Turkey's government
were accomplices of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). Putin said that the incident would have serious consequences
for the two countries' relations.
Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey had the right
to respond if its airspace is violated despite repeated warnings.
Russia claims that the Russian plan was shot down over Syria, but that
even if it had invaded Turkey's air space, then shooting it down was
illegal. According to Anatoly Kapustin, President of the Russian
Association of International Law: "Even if the Russian plane flew into
Turkish airspace and returned to Syria, it needs to be taken into
account that the Russian air force is taking part in an armed conflict
in Syrian territory, on the side of the central government."
Other analysts have also suggested that shooting down the warplane was
an overreaction, since it was not a danger to Turkey even if it
invaded Turkey's airspace.
Russia's Defense Ministry said that it was working on a package of
measures to respond to the incident. A Russian warship will be
deployed to waters off Syria's western Latakia province, and Russian
fighters will accompany bombing missions in the future. Russia's
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advised Russians not to visit Turkey,
saying that the threat of terrorism was as bad in Turkey as in Egypt,
where a Russian passenger plane was recently blown out of the sky.
Sputnik News (Moscow) and Hurriyet Daily News (Ankara)
****
**** Turkmen in Syria versus Russians in occupied Crimea
****
When Russian troops last year invaded, occupied, and annexed Ukraine's
Crimea peninsula, and also invaded and occupied eastern Ukraine, the
excuse given by Vladimir Putin was that Russia has the right to
protect ethnic Russians wherever they may be.
So now it's possible that this same argument is being used against
Russia. As has been widely reported, Russian warplanes have not been
bombing ISIS targets. Instead, they've been bombing so-called
"moderate" rebels fighting against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
including some groups being supported by the United States.
Some of those moderate rebels are in ethnic Turkmen villages that the
Russians have bombed. Turkey last week summoned the Russian
ambassador to protest the bombing of Turkmens in Syria. Turkmens
were originally from Turkmenistan in Central Asia.
On Tuesday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"Everyone should respect Turkey’s right to defend its
own borders. ... We strongly condemn attacks focusing on the
places where Bayirbucak Turkmens live. We have relatives and
cognates living there."<END QUOTE>
Erdogan pointed out that the area there were no ISIS militants in the
Turkmen region.
In fact, Crimea is the homeland of the ethnic Tatars, who are also
(distant) relatives of the Turks, with the same Muslim religion, and
Tatars are being brutally treated by the Russians in occupied Crimea.
So, from Turkey's point of view, Turkey has as much right to protect
the Tatars in occupied Crimea as Russia has to protect the Russians.
It's possible, though unstated, that Erdogan felt that Turkey had the
right to shoot down the Russian warplane in defense of the Turkmens in
Syria. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and CNN
****
**** Russia - Turkey crisis evokes memories of centuries of Crimean wars
****
There's been a lot of talk in the media about how Turkey and Russia
are such potentially great allies, and that if they could only get
past a minor issue or two, then together they could take down ISIS.
Such fatuous statements miss the point that the Turkish and Russian
people deeply hate each other, based on centuries of extremely bloody
wars, often centered on the Crimean peninsula which has been so much
in the news for the last two years.
If you want to list the most important wars of the last millennium,
one might mention the cataclysmic Mongol conquest of the Han Chinese
in 1206, the War of the Spanish Succession that climaxed in 1709, the
American Revolution that climaxed in 1782, the cataclysmic Zulu
conquest of tribes of southern Africa in the 1820s.
However, the top of the list is arguably the cataclysmic conquest of
Constantinople, the capital of the Byzantine empire, by the Muslim
Ottoman Turks in 1453, renaming the city to Istanbul.
In 1472, Russia's Grand Prince Ivan III ("Ivan the Great") married
Sophia, the orphan niece of the last Greek Emperor of Constantinople.
At that time, with the destruction of Rome by the Visigoths, and the
destruction of Constantinople by the Ottomans, Ivan the Great decided
that Moscow was going to become "the third Rome," the home of the true
(or "orthodox") Christian faith, and the defender of Jerusalem from
the Ottomans. He gave himself the title "Czar" or "Tsar," derived
from the name of the Roman Emperor Caesar (as is the German word
"Kaiser").
The Tatars were a tribe of Mongols that, under the leadership of
Genghis Kahn, probably the greatest conqueror in the history of the
world, had defeated China in 1217, and then turned westward and
conquered much of southern Russia by 1227, where they adopted Crimea
as their homeland. The Crimean Tatars had intermingled with the
central Asian Turks, and spoke a Turkish language. By the 1400s, they
adopted Islam as their religion.
So here's a brief summary of what happened since then:
- In 1571, the Crimean Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow, while
Russia was fighting the Livonian war against Poland, Sweden and
Denmark, and had to be driven back by Ivan the Great's grandson, Ivan
the Terrible, who had become Tsar in 1547.- In 1783, Russia under Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in a war
in which the Ottomans were defeated. The peace treaty (at Kuchuk
Kaynarja) was extremely humiliating to the Ottomans, as it gave Russia
the right to build an Orthodox Christian church in Istanbul and to
protect Orthodox Christians in Istanbul. This right to protect "the
church to be built in Constantinople and those who service it" was
used by the Russians to become the protector of all Orthodox
Christians living under Ottoman control. This proved to be a blank
check for Russian interference in Ottoman affairs.- The Crimean War (1853-55) was a disaster for both the Russians and
the Turks, though more so for the Russians, who lost Crimea and other
territories on the Black Sea. England and France were on the side of
the Ottomans. ("Into the valley of Death rode the six hundred" is the
well-known line from Lord Alfred Tennyson's poem, The Charge of the
Light Brigade, describing the results of one particularly gruesome
battle of the war, where 600 English soldiers were massacred.) After
the war, the English and France remained heavily involved in Turkey's
affairs.- World War I saw the destruction of Russia's Tsarist empire and
Turkey's Ottoman Empire. WW I was the generational crisis war for
both countries, not WW II.- Special mention should be made of Russia's recent history with
Ukraine and Crimea: First, 7 million peasants died in Joseph Stalin's
man-made famine in the 1930s. Next, when World War II began, Hitler
invaded and occupied Ukraine, killing 5 million more people. Hitler
withdrew from Ukraine in 1944, but then Stalin deported 200,000
Crimean Tatars to Siberia. In recent years, descendants of the
deported Crimeans have been demanding the right to reclaim their
grandparents' land in Crimea, which is one of the reasons why Russia
is treating Tatars harshly today.
Western politicians and journalists are pretty much oblivious to all
of this. But you can be sure that both Erdogan and Putin are fully
aware of it. And with all this history between them, and with Russia
now having occupied and annexed Crimea, there is no possibility Russia
and Turkey are going to become allies in any meaningful sense.
Long-time readers are aware that I've been writing for ten years that
Generational Dynamics predicts the world is headed for a Clash of
Civilizations world war, where the allies of the U.S. will including
India, Russia and Iran, while the enemies, led by China, will include
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.
The Turkish downing of a Russian warplane to provide protection of
Turkmen villages in Syria will certainly be an important milestone in
bringing that prediction to actualization. Russia is certain to
retaliate in some way, although it's not expected that Russia and
Turkey will go to war at this time, since there are diplomatic efforts
going on around the world.
Because of this crisis and the Syrian refugee crisis, in a move
described by Turkish journalists as "panicked," the European Union has
called an EU-Turkey summit meeting in Brussels on Sunday. This will
be the first such summit meeting since the EU and Turkey began their
tumultuous relationship in 1959.
According to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, the
summit will be held between the 28 member countries and Turkey, and
the topics to be discussed will certainly include the Turkey-Russia
crisis, as well as new discussions of Turkey joining the EU, and how
to stem the flow of refugees from Turkey into Greece. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Generational Dynamics: History of Islam versus Orthodox Christianity (2003)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Florence Nightingale, Ukraine, Crimea,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Anatoly Kapustin, Russian Association of International Law,
Sergei Lavrov, Syria, Bayirbucak Turkmens, Turkmenistan,
Byzantine Empire, Constantinople, Istanbul, Ottomans,
Ivan the Great, Ivan the Terrible, Orthodox Christianity,
Genghis Kahn, Mongols, Genghis Kahn, Catherine the Great, Kuchuk Kaynarja,
Lord Alfred Tennyson's poem, The Charge of the Light Brigade,
European Union, Donald Tusk, European Council
Permanent web link to this article
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Kiyosaki has what I call "Banana Complex." He's an Asian who hates the fact he's Asian. He can't stand the Asian antipathy toward debt and as a result has become what I call a classic "Leveraging Gambler." Some such gamblers win against the fates and then go on to pat themselves on the back as somehow having gamed the system or somehow having been sooooooo smart. They are not smart, they simply won the coin toss.
Last edited by XYMOX_4AD_84; 11-25-2015 at 03:42 PM.
That's really a political question, which can't be evaluated with
generational trends. It's also possible that there'll be other splits
within Europe, such as a north-south split.
You forget that for Boomers, contact with reality has always been optional.
Saving has so little return because of the Fed zero percent interest rate for the past sevent years.
While having cash on hand is always good, acquiring some hard assets like gold and silver are a good hedge against inflation because at zero percent there is a huge amount of money printing. I suspect that there is another bank crisis in our future and the government will use the Cyprus solution this time.
If one rejects laissez faire on account of mans fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.
- Ludwig von Mises
Beware of altruism. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
- Lazarus Long
I remember people saying that when gold was at $2,000 per ounce. At
that time, people believed $5,000 per ounce was not far off.
As I wrote at the time, the current trend price of gold is around
$500. Gold is in a bubble, and when the bubble collapses, it will
overshoot the trend price and possibly go as low as $200, which is
where it was at the beginning of the century. Actually, the bubble is
already collapsing, with the price of gold at $1,000, with a lot
farther down to go.
26-Nov-15 World View -- Russia and Turkey move closer to the brink of war
*** 26-Nov-15 World View -- Russia and Turkey move closer to the brink of war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia and Turkey move closer to the brink of war
- Turkish analysis of downing of Russian warplane
- Quote without comment
****
**** Russia and Turkey move closer to the brink of war
****
Russian pilots prepare for flight in a Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet in Syria (Reuters)
Russia's president Vladimir Putin is said to be inconsolably furious
at Turkey for shooting down a Russian warplane on Monday. This
incident has struck Putin in a deeply visceral way, and there is
little doubt that he will seek retaliation. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
According to a statement issued by Russia's military:
<QUOTE>"The General Staff is currently working out additional
measures to ensure the security of the Russian air base.
First: all actions of strike aircraft will be carried out only
under cover of fighter planes.
Second: measures will be taken to strengthen defense. To this end,
the cruiser Moskva, equipped with Fort air defense system, similar
to S-300, will assume position in the coastal region of
Latakia. We caution that any targets, representing a potential
danger for us, will be destroyed.
Third: Contacts with Turkey on military lines will be
discontinued."<END QUOTE>
Russia is deploying its most advanced ground to air missile system in
Syria. These missiles could target Turkish warplanes, and also
bombers from the U.S.-led coalition, including those from the U.S.,
France and Britain.
I heard several analysts refer to this as a major escalation that
could easily lead to a military conflict between Turkey and Russia.
Many people believe that Putin will seek further retaliation against
Turkey. Indeed, Putin has already promised "serious consequences" for
the incident, which was a "stab in the back." This retaliation could
take many forms, and a military conflict could be triggered either
intentionally or unintentionally.
Russia has used protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine as an excuse
for its army to invade and occupy portions of Ukraine, and annex its
Crimean peninsula. As we described yesterday,
the Turks wish to protect Turkmen rebels in Syria and
Turkic Tatars in Crimea for the similar reasons, and they're furious
that Russians are treating Tatars harshly in Crimea, and that Russian
warplanes are bombing Turkmen villages in Syria.
So neither of these two countries is satisfied, and either one make
seek further military retaliation against the other. International Business Times and Reuters
****
**** Turkish analysis of downing of Russian warplane
****
According to a Turkish analysis, shooting down the Russian warplane
was to be expected because "It was Russia that stabbled Turkey
in the back." According to the analysis:
- Turkish and American bombers have jointly been bombing
strongholds held by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) in northern Syria, along the border with Turkey.- These joint bombing raids have been in coordination with Turkmen
rebels and other opposition groups. The Turkey-backed Turkmen groups
are crucial to the whole operation of targeting ISIS.- Russia claims that it's bombing ISIS strongholds. We know from
two years experience in Ukraine that Russian officials never tell the
truth except accidentally, and in fact we know that Russian warplanes
seem to have been targeting almost every opposition group in Syria
EXCEPT ISIS.- In particular, Russian bombers have been targeting Turkmen
villages. Thus, not only is Russia not targeting ISIS, but in fact,
Russia is cooperating with ISIS to oppose joint Turkish-American
attempts to strike at ISIS.- Furthermore, Russia is also directly challenging an important
Turkish strategic objective: To prevent the PKK-linked Kurds from
taking control of a large area in northern Syria along the border with
Turkey. If the Kurds take control of that region, then it could
probably lead to one of Turkey's worst nightmare scenarios: a Kurdish
state stretching from the Mediterranean to Iraq, along Turkey's
border.
Interestingly enough, it seems likely that there is one important
thing that the Russians and Turks agree on: That nothing about the
current situation is accidental, and both are taking deliberate steps
to provoke the other -- Russia in bombing Turkmen and not ISIS, and
Turkey in shooting down the Russian plane in retaliation. Daily Sabah (Istanbul)
****
**** Quote without comment
****
At a joint Washington press conference with France's president
François Hollande on Tuesday to discuss the terrorist attacks in
France and Mali, President Barack Obama said:
<QUOTE>"Next week I will be joining President Hollande and
other world leaders in Paris for the Global Climate Conference.
What a powerful rebuke to the terrorists it will be when the world
stands as one and shows that we will not be deterred from building
a better future for our children."<END QUOTE>
The Federalist
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Turkey, Vladimir Putin,
Syria, Turkmen, Ukraine, Crimea, Tatars,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
PKK, Kurds, Iraq
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and
I really don't know what to make of the above. I think real estate in a lot of places is in Mr. Bubble land. Here are the old timey rules I learned wrt buying a house.
1. The price of the house should never exceed 2.5 times your gross salary.
2. If possible get a 15 year fixed note.
3. Go with a conventional mortgage. I think this is so things like Fannie Mae won't slice and dice the thing and leave your title in one place and your note somewhere else.
4. Yes, Virginia there are places where even minimum wage job salaries work. You can get a good 2 bed , 1 batch house with a yard where I live that isn't a "needs TLC". IOW, a crap shack. Granted this is in Oklahoma where the land is flat, we have winter storms, heat waves, and now earthquakes. But you can get a house without needing to wear a barrel.
Hell yes it's dumb. Buy a house on the terms I did back in 1986 in Houston.Now I know why:
Except for avoiding the stock market, this is one of the stupidest
things I've ever read. This guy is so stupid that he doesn't even
know that he's a Boomer, and that he's never been a millennial.
House Price = $40,000. My starting salary = $18,000 as a Jr. programmer in post bust Houston. Yes, buy the house.
House Price = $1,000,000 in the Land of Magic Unicorns California, average salary = something like $120,000 [generous techie salary], uh no way. Other Magic Unicorn sightings are in New York, Seattle, and parts of Florida. Current day Houston sucks because the property taxes are 3% of your house's appraised value.
Close, there John.No wonder Millennials are in such trouble, listening to idiot Boomers
like this. Millennials should be saving money as much money as
possible, instead of just using every available penny to buy one shiny
thing after another.
1. Set aside a couple a months' cost of living.
2. Pay off any debts after that. Deflation is hell on debtors.
3. Yes, don't go off and buy unneeded bling like the latest rendition of the Ishit.
4. Continue saving in cash equivalents. That means no junk bonds or long dated treasuries.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
Far be it for me to predict where the winds blow wrt the PMC [precious metals complex]. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are what comprise the PMC.
PMC acquisition via dollar cost averaging has worked well for me. Yes silver was something like $4.00/oz. when I got a bunch. I sold a bag [$1000.00] face value @$40.000 , yes because that screamed bubble. I know folks who natter about the PMC being a inflation hedge and yeah that's valid. However, the best reason for having said assets is rarely mentioned. The PMC has no, nada, zilch counter party risk. So yes, Galen is correct, PMC assets are exempt from Cyprus like bail-ins.As I wrote at the time, the current trend price of gold is around
$500. Gold is in a bubble, and when the bubble collapses, it will
overshoot the trend price and possibly go as low as $200, which is
where it was at the beginning of the century. Actually, the bubble is
already collapsing, with the price of gold at $1,000, with a lot
farther down to go.
NB.
That also means physical possession. Never, ever use PMC ETF's and the like because that stuff negates the counter-party risk component. Also, generalized raw material deflation really fucks with bank balance sheets as well. If you were a bank that lent money on frakking wells, guess what? Your balance sheet has just gone pear shaped in the space of 1 year.
http://www.npr.org/2015/02/24/387750...klahomas-banks
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
I tend to do better dollar cost averaging into precious metals. If you are right about where the price is headed in the next fews then I will be just fine. It is a useful hedge against inflation which has been pretty much constant over the decades.
If one rejects laissez faire on account of mans fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.
- Ludwig von Mises
Beware of altruism. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
- Lazarus Long
That is the thing about investments, sometimes you have to look like an idiot for awhile until the events you are expecting occur. In this case holding the metals is a hedge against a crisis and long term inflation.
Exactly. In situations where central banks have been spending the last seven years blowing the mother of all bubbles you damn well better have a hedge against currency or bank failure. Hell, I have been getting out of anything leveraged for the last couple of years. I know how this story ends even if it is hard to know precisely when it will happen.
Truth is, from various PMI manufacturing numbers it looks like the economy is already in recession. I suspect the this time it will be the shale oil producers that will get blamed this time rather than the Fed which been blowing bubbles for the last seven years.
If one rejects laissez faire on account of mans fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.
- Ludwig von Mises
Beware of altruism. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
- Lazarus Long
The best hedge against inflation is well-paid work. Real estate? Nice -- if it generates a profit, as through rental property -- but there is still pressure for rent controls as people go homeless, and it is easy for taxing authorities to tax.
Governments can stop inflation quickly by stopping the printing of money, replacing a flimsy currency with hard currency, or forcing a recession. Precious metals, unlike equities, do not pay dividends.
Asset valuations for most businesses are at historical cost, so a business sitting on real estate that it bought in the 1930s in California or Massachusetts might have land valued at a few thousands on the books but worth millions in reality. Businesses don't even get to give a footnote on the valuation of long-held property in their financial statements. Because of this, the valuation of equities may be severely understated in inflationary times.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Good advice. And you're right - real estate is still in a bubble.> I really don't know what to make of the above. I think real estate
> in a lot of places is in Mr. Bubble land. Here are the old timey
> rules I learned wrt buying a house.
> 1. The price of the house should never exceed 2.5 times your gross
> salary.
> 2. If possible get a 15 year fixed note.
> 3. Go with a conventional mortgage. I think this is so things like
> Fannie Mae won't slice and dice the thing and leave your title in
> one place and your note somewhere else.
> 4. Yes, Virginia there are places where even minimum wage job
> salaries work. You can get a good 2 bed , 1 batch house with a
> yard where I live that isn't a "needs TLC". IOW, a crap
> shack. Granted this is in Oklahoma where the land is flat, we have
> winter storms, heat waves, and now earthquakes. But you can get a
> house without needing to wear a barrel.
This is a very interesting argument, and a passionate defense of
owning gold and other precious metals, but it overlooks a few things.
First, gold and precious metals are in a bubble, and if you own them,
then you're going to lose a lot of money, almost certainly a lot more
than you'll lose in a bank bail-in.
Second, you can turn those arguments around, and they apply much
better to holding cash:
- The mainstream press has things completely backward, which is not
surprising. The mainstream press implies that gold will become more
valuable, when in fact it's crashing.- The mainstream press has been saying for years that the dollar is
going to lose value because of inflation and hyperinflation. Every
quarter, they predict that this hyperinflation will begin next
quarter, and it never does. I've been writing since 2003 that we're
in a deflationary spiral, like the 1930s. I've been right over and
over again every quarter, and the mainstream economists have been
wrong over and over again every quarter.- In short: Gold is losing value, while the dollar is gaining in
value.- As you say, you should own physical gold rather than ETFs. There
are many reasons, not the least of which is that the gold supposedly
backing them may not exist. Therefore, you shouid own physical gold
and keep it safe somewhere.- Similarly, if you fear a bank bail-in, then you should own
physical cash, and keep it safe somewhere.- In a crisis, if you want to buy food to avoid starvation, you may
be forced to sell your gold at a very steep discount, perhaps under
$100 per ounce. On the other hand, you'll still be able to buy food
with your cash.
27-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey-Russia crisis continues to escalate
*** 27-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey-Russia crisis continues to escalate
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia accuses Turkey of 'industrial scale' oil purchases from ISIS
- Russia escalates retaliation against Turkey for downing warplane
- European Union to end visa restrictions on Turkey's citizens
****
**** Russia accuses Turkey of 'industrial scale' oil purchases from ISIS
****
Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on November 16 (AP)
On Tuesday, after the Russian warplane was shot down by Turkey,
Russia's president Vladimir Putin said:
<QUOTE>"ISIS has big money, hundreds of millions or even
billions of dollars, from selling oil. In addition they are
protected by the military of an entire nation [i.e., Turkey]. One
can understand why they are acting so boldly and blatantly. Why
they kill people in such atrocious ways. Why they commit terrorist
acts across the world, including in the heart of
Europe."<END QUOTE>
Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev alleged on Wednesday that
Turkish officials were benefiting from ISIS oil sales, while Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said it was no secret that "terrorists"
use Turkish territory.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin on Thursday renewed his accusation
that Turkey's officials were "accomplices of terrorists" for
supporting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has furiously denied such
accusations of several occasions.
At a news conference on Thursday, Putin said that Russian spy planes
had witnessed trucks carrying "industrial scale" amounts of oil from
ISIS sources crossing the border from Syria into Turkey. He said it
was "theoretically possible" that Ankara was unaware of oil supplies
entering its territory from ISIL-controlled areas of Syria but added
that this was hard to imagine.
According to Putin:
<QUOTE>"Turkish authorities should destroy the oil [coming
from ISIS], but we do not see the smoke from the fire in the
destruction of oil. I repeat, we are talking about an industrial
scale amounts."<END QUOTE>
Erdogan furiously denied the charges:
<QUOTE>"Shame on you. It's clear where Turkey buys its oil
and gas ... Those who claim we are buying oil from Daesh like this
must prove their claims. Nobody can slander this country. I would
call them liars [if they do]. If you are seeking the source of
weaponry and financial power of Daesh, the first place to look is
the Assad regime and countries that act with it."<END QUOTE>
Most analysts agree that Turkey is not buying oil directly from ISIS,
but it's possible that some distributors are buying oil from ISIS and
selling it in Turkey. Russia Today and Reuters and APA (Azerbeijan) and Guardian (London)
****
**** Russia escalates retaliation against Turkey for downing warplane
****
Russian and Turkish leaders on each side refused to apologize, but
demanded apologies from the other side.
Russia has not declared war over Turkey's downing of a Russian
warplane on Tuesday, but is taking a number of hostile steps just
stopping short of war.
The forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad intensified the
shelling and bombing of Turkmen villages in Syria. As we described two days ago,
the Turks wish
to protect Turkmen rebels in Syria for the same reason that Russia
says that it wants to protect ethnic Russians in occupied east Ukraine
and Crimea. Russia defended the bombing of Turkmens on Thursday by
claiming that they're terrorists, although that description could just
as easily be apply to the Russian separatists in Ukraine.
In addition to accusations that Turkey's officials were "accomplices
of terrorists" and that Turkey was buying oil from ISIS, Russia says
that it will adopt a set of economic sanctions having to do with
trade, transport, and tourism:
- Big energy projects, including a gas pipeline and cooperating
in building Turkey's first nuclear plans may be canceled.- Civilian flights to and from Turkey will be limited. In addition,
tourism to Turkey will "obviously" be curtailed, because of the danger
of terrorism.- Food safety checks on agricultural imports from Turkey will be
increased. Every shipment will now have to be inspected, which will
result in substantial delays.
As we wrote earlier this week, Turkey and Russia have had centuries of
bloody, genocidal generational crisis wars with each, and there is
certainly a new one on the horizon. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
) However, there is
tremendous international diplomatic pressure to keep the current
situation from spiraling into war, so it is hoped that there won't be
a war at this time. But with Turkey and Russia on opposite sides of
the crises in Ukraine, Crimea and Syria, it's clear that no simple
band-aid will fix the current problems. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)
****
**** European Union to end visa restrictions on Turkey's citizens
****
Ever since Russia's warplane was downed, it's been easy to forget that
Turkey is involved in at least one more major international crisis:
the refugee crisis in Europe. There are still thousands of refugees
each day, mostly from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, crossing into
Turkey, across the Aegean Sea, into Greece.
The refugee crisis has overwhelmed Europe, and the recent terror
attacks in Paris have raised terrorism alert levels in several
countries.
As we described a month ago, the crisis has forced the EU to reopen
and take seriously negotiations for Turkey to join the European Union.
( "20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold"
)
A European Union draft document is expected to be released on November
29, with some of the following terms:
- October 2016 will be set as a target date for visa exemption
for Turkish citizens. (I believe that this means that Turkish
citizens will be able to enter the EU without a visa, which makes
sense when you consider that a million or so migrants this year have
entered the EU without a visa.)- Turkey will control the flow of refugees from Turkey into
Europe.- The EU will supply 3 billion euros at the start, to be increased
later, to help Turkey support the 2 million refugees that Turkey is
currently hosting, mostly from Syria.- For the first time, Greek and Turkish Cyprus will be merged, and
Turkey will recognize Greek Cyprus.
Hurriyet (Ankara)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Turkey, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Dmitry Medvedev, Ukraine, Crimea,
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Greece, European Union, Cyprus
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Yes, we certainly agree. This time we have a bunch of foreign hot money getting sucked into this particular bubble as well. This will not end well.
John, I think you'd find that I agree with what you say. My bad for not being clear enough. I'll try and fix that below:This is a very interesting argument, and a passionate defense of
owning gold and other precious metals, but it overlooks a few things.
First, gold and precious metals are in a bubble, and if you own them,
then you're going to lose a lot of money, almost certainly a lot more
than you'll lose in a bank bail-in.
Second, you can turn those arguments around, and they apply much
better to holding cash:
Let's agree that to do:
which, OK I'll admit I wasn't specific on is to stuff some of that money under a safer version of the mattress at home and use some of that money to buy non perishable food / long lived staples like toilet paper and save by making a stash of those sorts of good to go with your at home funds. That way you can go to your food stash and preserve some cash that way. Better yet, learn how to garden and that will extend your food lifeline even more. I garden and dry the extra stuff. I don't think I have to worry about my ghost peppers getting stolen. If you're not used to them, they fry your taste buds off.
I agree with that also. Let's go back to one of the tenets of Austrian economics. MMT is OK and Austrian economics is OK, but Keynesian is not because it didn't work in the 1970's. Monetarism is even worse. The breathtaking failures of QE(x) and all of these bubbles we've recently have show how messed up that is. explanation is here. I find it likewise breathtaking that China seems to have mastered the art of malinvestments! I have yet to hear one peep on the MSM about malinvestment and why QE(x) will never work and why barges of deflation are gonna be exported by China.
- The mainstream press has things completely backward, which is not
surprising. The mainstream press implies that gold will become more
valuable, when in fact it's crashing.
I refer you to the discussion about malinvestment and its aftermath above.
- The mainstream press has been saying for years that the dollar is
going to lose value because of inflation and hyperinflation. Every
quarter, they predict that this hyperinflation will begin next
quarter, and it never does. I've been writing since 2003 that we're
in a deflationary spiral, like the 1930s. I've been right over and
over again every quarter, and the mainstream economists have been
wrong over and over again every quarter.
Deflation = the dollar is gaining value against most things. Healthcare,college diplomas, and for some odd reason groceries excluded. Shrinkflation is real and sneaky. When you visit the store next time look for weird weights on coffee cans, 4 pound sugar packages when they used to be 5 pounds, soup that was 12 oz, is now something like 10.4 oz, ad infinitum.
- In short: Gold is losing value, while the dollar is gaining in
value.
I think my gold has a sufficient cash/real goods backstop such that the above scenario won't be an issue. I see PMC as more of a wealth time machine to cross any systemic breakdowns while cash/consumer goods are the real day to day get through any big messes. Folks who smoke and drink can also use cigarettes and booze as barter items if they so wish.
- As you say, you should own physical gold rather than ETFs. There
are many reasons, not the least of which is that the gold supposedly
backing them may not exist. Therefore, you shouid own physical gold
and keep it safe somewhere.- Similarly, if you fear a bank bail-in, then you should own
physical cash, and keep it safe somewhere.- In a crisis, if you want to buy food to avoid starvation, you may
be forced to sell your gold at a very steep discount, perhaps under
$100 per ounce. On the other hand, you'll still be able to buy food
with your cash.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
I really like that the EU's plan to end unchecked migration from Muslim countries into its territory is to... reduce restrictions on immigrants from a Muslim country into the EU. I'm sure their citizens will understand the distinction.
The Selfishness of the boomers.
Once again boomers want to sacrifice their children's future and the heritage of the west. As mentioned in the previous post now they want to let in even more refugees in direct contradiction of the will of the people in the western world. When are boomers going to stop shoving human rights down everyone's throats? I'll use the last saeculum as an example: think of the stagnation in Britain and France in the 1920s and 1930s and contrast that with the dynamic forms of government in Germany, most of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and in Asia in the same period. Tyrannical boomers refuse to allow Xers and Millies to go down their preferred "alternate path".
Thanks for the clarifications. You certainly do seem to know
what you're doing. You'll be around long after I'm gone.
Do you mean the Nazis?
You're always good for a chuckle.
By the way, the Nazi government was extremely corrupt. Check out
Hannah Arendt's Origins of Totalitarianism.
> Particularly significant in this respect was the reception given
> Brecht's <i>Dreigroschenoper</i> [[Bertolt Brecht's <i>The
> Three-Penny Opera</i>]] in pre-Hitler Germany. The play presented
> gangsters as respectable businessmen and respectable businessmen
> as gangsters. The irony was somewhat lost when respectable
> businessmen in the audience considered this a deep insight into
> the ways of the world and when the mob welcomed it as an artistic
> sanction of gangsterism. The theme song in the play, <i>"Erst
> kommt das Fressen, dann kommt die Moral,"</i> [["First comes
> gluttony, then comes morality."]] was greeted with frantic
> applause by exactly everybody, though for different reasons. The
> mob applauded because it took the statement literally; the
> bourgeoisie applauded because it had been fooled by its own
> hypocrisy for so long that it had grown tired of the tension and
> found deep wisdom in the expression of the banality by which it
> lived; the élite applauded because the unveiling of hypocrisy was
> such superior and wonderful fun. The effect of the work was
> exactly the opposite of what Brecht had sought by it. The
> bourgeoisie could no longer be shocked; it welcomed the exposure
> of its hidden philosophy, whose popularity proved they had been
> right all along, so that the only political result of Brecht's
> "revolution" was to encourage everyone to discard the
> uncomfortable mask of hypocrisy and to accept only the standards
> of the mob.
28-Nov-15 World View -- Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic
*** 28-Nov-15 World View -- Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war
- Pope Francis blames starvation and poverty on a new form of colonialism
- Baby kissed by Pope Francis recovers from deadly brain tumor
****
**** Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war
****
Pope Francis welcomed by Uganda's president Yoweri Museveni (at right with hat), in Kampala on Friday (AP)
The United Nations will provide hundreds of additional peacekeeping
troops on Sunday, when Pope Francis visits Bangui, the capital city of
Central African Republic (CAR), in the midst of a sectarian civil war
that's been going on for three years, and shows no sign of ending.
The visit will last 26 hours.
The Pope is completing a six-day tour of Africa, with stops in Kenya,
Uganda and CAR.
In Bangui, the Pope's first visit will be to the PK5 mosque in
Bangui. PK5 is a Muslim enclave that continues to be extremely
dangerous. Renewed violence erupted in PK5 in September, after a
Muslim man was killed. The Pope had wanted to visit a hospital in
PK5, but it was deemed to be too dangerous.
After visiting the mosque, Francis plans to hold a prayer vigil at the
cathedral in Bangui and spend some time at a displacement camp.
The United Nations peacekeeping mission in CAR currently has some
9,100 peacekeepers and about 1,500 police. It will be boosted with an
additional 750 troops and 140 police for the Pope's visit. The
additional troops will stay for eight weeks, until after presidential
and parliamentary elections take place on December 27.
Despite the additional peacekeepers, Vatican officials have said that
the Pope could cancel the visit at the last minute if it appears to be
too dangerous, either to the Pope or to the people that he will be
visiting. The last pontiff to visit CAR was Pope John Paul II in
1985.
The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.
After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.
But then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum,"
and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the
Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been committing
atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational crisis war.
Thousands have been killed, and millions have been displaced.
As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely. ( "2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war"
)
Many people of faith hope that the visit by the Pope will somehow
magically tranquilize the fighting and end the civil war. From the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, this civil war will go on
until it reaches the point of exhaustion, and there's an explosive
climax, some kind of bloody, genocidal massacre that will be
remembered for decades. Deutsche Welle and Time and Reuters
****
**** Pope Francis blames starvation and poverty on a new form of colonialism
****
Pope Francis was apparently very deeply affected by the recent
terrorist attacks in Paris, after which he declared that the upcoming
Christmas festivities would be a "charade," with the whole world at
war:
<QUOTE>"We are close to Christmas. There will be lights,
there will be parties, bright trees, even Nativity scenes – all
decked out – while the world continues to wage war. It’s all a
charade. The world has not understood the way of peace. The whole
world is at war."<END QUOTE>
Pope Francis might be a reader of the daily Generational Dynamics
World View articles, because he appears to believe that the world is
headed inevitably to a new world war, and he's in great despair over
it.
In a speech on Friday at the Kangemi Slum in Kampala, the capital city
of Uganda, he declared Africa to be a "continent of hope," but went on
to continue his message of despair:
<QUOTE>"One very serious problem in this regard is the lack
of access to infrastructures and basic services. By this I mean
toilets, sewers, drains, refuse collection, electricity, roads, as
well as schools, hospitals, recreational and sport centers,
studios and workshops for artists and craftsmen. I refer in
particular to access to drinking water. “Access to safe drinkable
water is a basic and universal human right, since it is essential
to human survival and, as such, is a condition for the exercise of
other human rights. Our world has a grave social debt towards the
poor who lack access to drinking water, because they are denied
the right to a life consistent with their inalienable dignity”
(Laudato Si’, 30). To deny a family water, under any bureaucratic
pretext whatsoever, is a great injustice, especially when one
profits from this need
This situation of indifference and hostility experienced by poor
neighborhoods is aggravated when violence spreads and criminal
organizations, serving economic or political interests, use
children and young people as “cannon fodder” for their ruthless
business affairs. I also appreciate the struggles of those women
who fight heroically to protect their sons and daughters from
these dangers. I ask God that that the authorities may embark,
together with you, upon the path of social inclusion, education,
sport, community action, and the protection of families, for this
is the only guarantee of a peace that is just, authentic and
enduring.
These realities which I have just mentioned are not a random
combination of unrelated problems. They are a consequence of new
forms of colonialism which would make African countries “parts of
a machine, cogs on a gigantic wheel” (Ecclesia in Africa,
52). Indeed, countries are frequently pressured to adopt policies
typical of the culture of waste, like those aimed at lowering the
birth rate, which seek “to legitimize the present model of
distribution, where a minority believes that it has the right to
consume in a way which can never be universalized” (Laudato Si’,
50).
In this regard, I would propose a renewed attention to the idea of
a respectful urban integration, as opposed to elimination,
paternalism, indifference or mere containment. We need integrated
cities which belong to everyone."<END QUOTE>
There's a great deal of wishful thinking in these remarks. But the
source of the problem was revealed in Thomas Roberts Malthus in his
1798 book, "An Essay on the Principle of Population." In that book,
he showed that the amount of food that farmers produce increases every
year, but that the annual increase in food production is smaller than
the annual increase in population. In other words, the population
grows faster than the food supply, which I call the "Malthus effect."
(To see how this applies to China, see "6-Dec-10 News -- Mongol invasion of China in 1206 has impact today"
)
Those who deny the validity of the Malthus effect overlook the number
of wars of extermination that happen throughout history. Whenever a
society or group of people are facing starvation and poverty, they
look around for someone to blame, someone "wealthier" or "more
privileged." When the starvation gets bad enough, there is a war. If
it's a generational crisis war, then it will worsen the starvation and
will become a war of extermination. A war of extermination decreases
the population, so that there's enough food for the survivors for a
while. That's the cycle that humanity has gone through for millennia.
Theologians often discuss a number of great issues, like the conflict
between omniscience and free will. ( "27-Sep-15 World View -- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah'"
)
But I've never heard of theologians discussing an even more important
issue: Why are humans to blame for wars, when God has created a world
in which the population grows faster than the food supply, making war
a requirement for human survival? Time and
AP and National Catholic Register
****
**** Baby kissed by Pope Francis recovers from deadly brain tumor
****
During his recent visit to Philadelphia, Pope Francis kissed the head
of a 15-month-old baby Gianna Masciantonio. The baby was dying of a
brain tumor.
Six weeks later, MRI scans show that the tumor has shrunk
significantly, and the baby would likely survive.
According to Gianna's father, Joey Masciantonio: "The kiss was God's
work, that's for sure. But, the miracle was Him giving us the
platform to reach those doctors who, ultimately, played a major role
in saving Gianna's life." NBC News
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pope Francis, Central African Republic,
PK5, François Bozizé, Michel Djotodia,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Kenya, Uganda, Kampala, Kangemi Slum,
Thomas Roberts Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population,
Philadelphia, Gianna Masciantonio
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Boomers are governing Europe and America tyrannically. Geopolitically Boomers basically want the western world to unite with the "third world". Xers and Xer-influenced Millies have nothing but contempt for this ideology. Boomers love government by globalist bureaucrat, as mentioned before the European citizenry is adamantly against the influx of refugees the boomer political class wants. Xers and Millies regard boomers as tyrannical for not allowing the younger generations to carry out a reform of society. Even the organization of the military shows the ideological biases of the boomers leaders, particularly how in most western countries our weapons systems are based on defensive and retaliatory capabilities; not first-strike weaponry
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 11-28-2015 at 11:44 AM.
Barack Obama is a Gen-Xer. David Cameron is a Gen-Xer.
29-Nov-15 World View -- Russia's military buildup a game-changer in Syria
*** 29-Nov-15 World View -- Russia's military buildup a game-changer in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia's military buildup makes Syria into a Russian no-fly zone
- Russia ends food imports from many countries
- Turkey's Erdogan 'saddened' by downing of Russia's warplane
****
**** Russia's military buildup makes Syria into a Russian no-fly zone
****
The S-400 missile can reach 400 km, and as high as 27 km. The radar has a range of 600 km. (RT)
Russia's deployment of its advanced S-400 air defense missile systems
at Syria's Khmeimim airbase one day after Turkey shot down a Russian
warplane has effectively implemented a no-fly zone under Russian over
most of Syria, as well as Lebanon, Cyprus, half of Israel, western
regions of Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and a vast part of Turkey.
According to Russia's Ministry of Defense:
<QUOTE>"In accordance with the decision of the Supreme
Commander of the Russian Armed Forces, today an S-400 air defense
missile system has been promptly delivered, deployed and already
began combat duty to provide cover for the area around the Russian
Hmeymim air base in Syria."<END QUOTE>
This is certainly a "game-changer," as it makes many flights by
American, Israeli and Turkish planes almost impossible without
permission from Russia. In fact, Russian media are bragging
that the U.S. and Turkey immediately stopped airstrikes since
the S-400 systems were deployed, and Turkey is avoiding all
flights near the Syrian border.
There's also an electronic jamming war going on between Russia and
Turkey. The Russians put into place anew electronic warfare
multifunctional systems to disrupt Turkish flights and forces. Turkey
has countered by installing the KORAL electronic jamming system along
its southern border with Syria.
This vast Russian military buildup in Syria has significant
consequences for Turkey. Turkey and Syria have centuries of bitter
warfare behind them, and now Russia is hemming Turkey in from the
south in Syria and from the north in occupied Crimea. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
It's also significant for Israel which has, on occasion, conducted
airstrikes into Syria to prevent convoys of weapons from being
delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Such weapons convoys will now be
under Russian protection, and Hezbollah will get all the weapons it
wants.
It's worthwhile reminding readers at this point that, as I've been
writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that Russia and Iran
will trend towards becoming our allies, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and
the Sunni Muslim countries will trend towards becoming our enemies.
(See for example "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement"
) Those predictions seemed fantastical ten years
ago, but now we see them coming true, step by step, week after week,
much to many people's astonishment, including mine. Russia Today and Debka and Russia Today
****
**** Russia ends food imports from many countries
****
In 2006, Russia wanted to retaliate against Georgia's increasingly
pro-Western stance and ambitions to join Nato. So in March 2006,
Russia banned wine imports from Georgia. In 2005, Georgia had
exported wine worth a total of $18.4 million, but by 2007 that figure
had fallen 64% to just $29.2 million.
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, the West
imposed financial sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated in August
2014 by banning most food imports from the EU, as well as from
Australia, Canada, Norway and the US in August last year. Three
months ago, the ban was extended to Iceland, Liechtenstein, Albania
and Montenegro.
Ukraine has announced plans to implement a free trade agreement with
the European Union, beginning in January 2016. Russia retaliated by
announcing that food imports from Ukraine would be banned,
also starting in January 2016.
Now Russia is banning food and agricultural products from
Turkey, in retaliation for the downing last week of the Russian
warplane.
One might wonder if Russia is running out of countries to import food
from. Well, with over 200 countries in the world, that's not likely
to happen soon. In fact, Russia's agricultural minister has pointed
out that Russia could import fruit and vegetables from Iran, Israel,
Morocco, Azerbaijan, China, South Africa and Argentina.
Other Russian sanctions target Turkish businesses in Russia, and
Russian tourists who wish to visit Turkey.
Russia's sanctions may benefit the United States. The sanctions will
also terminate millions of tons of Russia's wheat exports to Turkey.
Russia is the largest wheat exporter to Turkey. U.S. and European
agricultural dealers have millions of tons of wheat in storage, and
could immediately sell that to Turkey.
However, there is a broader point to be made. I frequently have
someone tell me that "those two countries won't go to war because it's
bad for business." The assumption is that if two countries trade a
lot with each other, then they won't do anything to disturb that
trade.
I've frequently heard this argument with regard to China and Taiwan.
"China won't invade Taiwan," I'm told, "because it's bad for
business." And yet, Britain declared war on Nazi Germany, even though
it was bad for business. In fact, if war were prevented because it
was bad for business, then there would almost never be any wars.
But now we see that just the opposite is true. If two countries have
strong trade relations, then trade simply becomes another weapon of
war, in the form of sanctions. Whether sanctions ever actually
accomplish anything useful is highly questionable, but trade does not
prevent war. BBC and Sputnik News (Moscow)
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan 'saddened' by downing of Russia's warplane
****
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not apologize for the
downing of Russia's warplane last week, but seemed to come close, when
he said that he was "saddened":
<QUOTE>"I'm really saddened by the incident. We wish it had
never happened, but it happened. I hope something like this
doesn't happen again.
We hope that the issue between us and Russia does not escalate any
further, become corrosive and have dire consequences in the
future. ...
"What we tell Russia is 'Let's resolve this issue between
ourselves and within its boundaries. Let's not make others happy
by destroying our whole relationship. I think the U.N. Global
Climate Change Summit to be held in Paris on Monday could be an
opportunity to restore our relations. ...
Russia is important for Turkey as much as Turkey is important for
Russia. Both countries cannot afford to give up on each
other."<END QUOTE>
Actually, this statement sounds a bit desperate to my ear.
At any rate, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has demanded a full
apology, and says that he will not speak to Erdogan until Erdogan
apologizes. So it seems unlikely that they'll meet in Paris on
Monday. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Manar (Lebanon)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Turkey, Syria, Khmeimim airbase, S-400,
Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea, China, Taiwan, Britain, Nazi Germany,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin
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30-Nov-15 World View -- Nepal's fuel deal with China collapses, as India border block
*** 30-Nov-15 World View -- Nepal's fuel deal with China collapses, as India border blockade worsens
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Nepal's fuel deal with China collapses, as India border blockade worsens
- Communist Maoists block all India vehicles from entering Nepal
- Many lose jobs in Bihar, India's border, as well as Nepal
****
**** Nepal's fuel deal with China collapses, as India border blockade worsens
****
Graffiti in Kathmandu reads 'Let's protest against the Indian blockade' in Nepali (Reuters)
The Hindu religion Madhesis ethnic group, living in Nepal's Tarai
region on the border with India, is continuing its blockade of all
commercial traffic from India, which started on September 24. The
blockade has cut off the only source of imports of petroleum and
cooking gas to Nepal, as well as many other goods. ( "8-Nov-15 World View -- Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase"
)
On October 28, China and India signed a memorandum of understanding
that China would provide fuel to Nepal to compensate for the blockade,
effective ending India's monopoly over fuel supplies to Nepal.
However, the deal may be collapsing because the committee charged with
implementing the deal, the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC), are apparently
so buried in bureaucracy that they can't make any progress. According
to an anonymous bureaucrat:
<QUOTE>"In the last two months of the crisis, only three
meetings of the NOC board, chaired by commerce secretary, were
held and they were focused on monitoring and distribution of
petroleum products rather than on expediting the
business-to-business (B2B) deal with PetroChina."<END QUOTE>
Details from open news sources are sketchy, but apparently Gopal
Bahadur Khadka, managing director of NOC, was holding up the official
deal because he was trying to use his privately owned company Birat
Petroleum to purchase the fuel from China at the market price,
and then to resell it to NOC at twice the market price.
(Paragraph corrected. 30-Nov)
With all the corruption going on in Washington and on Wall Street, it
shouldn't surprise anyone that there's also corruption in Nepal.
Nepal still hasn't recovered from the massive earthquake six months
ago, and people without shelter are going to have to try to survive
the Himalayan country's cold winter, but none of that mattered to
Khadka, apparently, as long as he got his money.
A source close to the Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli said that Khadka is
going to be sacked on the charge of "failing to perform duty
satisfactorily." Are you kidding me?
In the last decade, American banksters created trillions of dollars in
fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic securities, and sold
them to investors knowing that they were fraudulent. And yet the
Obama administration, which depends on these banksters to make huge
donations to his campaigns, and to his pet projects like Obamacare,
has never criminally charged a single person. It's enough to make any
decent person vomit, but the mainstream media are too in love with
Obama to vomit.
So now, in Nepal, a bureaucrat who allegedly committed truly massive
fraud, at a time when Nepal itself is in danger, is being fired for
"failing to perform duty satisfactorily." That would be the reason to
fire someone who was falling asleep in meetings. We can only guess
that Prime Minister Oli is probably getting kickbacks from somewhere,
because if Khadka isn't a criminal, then I don't know what a
"criminal" is. Himalayan Times and Review Nepal
****
**** Communist Maoists block all India vehicles from entering Nepal
****
While ethnic Madhesis in Nepal are blockading commercial traffic from
India into Nepal, Communist Maoists have announced a bandh (general
strike) that blocks any India vehicles whatsoever to enter Nepal.
According to an India police chief:
<QUOTE>"We have not allowed Indian vehicles into Nepal via
Banbasa bridge today after a bandh call by the Maoists (Viplav
faction) in Nepal, but Nepalese vehicles plied normally.
The Nepalese police had advised against allowing Indian vehicle
towards their territory fearing violence by the Maoist group which
has called for the bandh."<END QUOTE>
The Maoists are blaming India for the blockade by the Madhesis, who
are Hindu. The blockade was triggered by the passage of a new Nepal
constitution that marginalizes the Madhesis, and purposely limits the
Madhesi representation in the parliament to 10%, even though they
constitute 40% of the population. India has been lobbying Nepal to
modify the constitution, but insists that it's done nothing to support
or encourage the blockade.
On Saturday morning, a car belonging to the Indian embassy in
Kathmandu was vandalized and torched. A Maoist spokesman claimed
credit:
<QUOTE>"We had earlier warned not to ride Indian vehicles in
Nepal, otherwise the angry people can do anything. [India's
Narendra] Modi government did not take this issue seriously and
that is why the people are angry. This anger will convert into a
struggle. This will neither benefit India nor Modiji [Modi
supporters]."<END QUOTE>
Interestingly, both police officials and embassy officials are denying
the Maoist claim, saying that the vehicle caught fire due to a
technical fault. Presumably, the same technical fault broke the
windows, even though the car was parked and no one was in it.
According to the Maoist spokesman:
<QUOTE>"Our strike is against India's blockade and its
interference in Nepal. How long will people of Nepal suffer?
India must back down."<END QUOTE>
Tribune of India and AFP and Review Nepal and Times of India
****
**** Many lose jobs in Bihar, India's border, as well as Nepal
****
The blockade is causing economic devastation on both sides of of the
Nepal-Indian border.
After the blockade began, Nepal's border state of Tarai was forced to
close industries, shops and schools. This put many Madhesis out of
work, and resulted in skyrocketing prices for essential commodities
and petroleum products.
For the same reason, thousands of workers from the India's eastern
state of Bihar were out of work. Prices also skyrocketed in Bihar
itself because of the shortage of essential items. Tribune of India
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, India, Tarai, Madhesi,
China, Nepal Oil Corporation, NOC, Gopal Bahadur Khadka,
KP Sharma Oli, Narendra Modi, Maoists, Communists,
Kathmandu, Bihar
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Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 11-30-2015 at 06:14 PM.
