Originally Posted by Galen

> States the problem clearly. You think the Boomers are bad now, you
> should have been around when they were taking certain recreational
> pharmaceuticals back in the sixties and seventies. I don't think
> Eric the Obtuse ever stopped which is why is appears that his
> contact with reality is sporadic at best.

Actually you've got that backwards. The reason that you remember
those stories from the 60s and 70s is because drug use was strictly
illegal and officially frowned upon, so when it happened it was big
news. So when you had idiots like Timothy Leary taking LSD and saying
"Turn on, tune in, and drop out," the left-wing media like the NY
Times or Walter Cronkite glorified him because he was so damned COOL.
Janis Joplin was damned COOL too, but of course she died from drugs,
so after that she was no longer cool, and neither was Timothy Leary.

It's different today, because young people are demanding that drugs be
made legal; and even if they're not, they're still freely available.
So today, everyone can easily get drugs, and it's not news anymore,
while in the 60s and 70s, it was very rare to get drugs. So in the
60s and 70s, people talked about drugs, but very few people actually
took drugs, while today a lot of young people today are actually
taking drugs, resulting in a lot of young people with learning
disabilities. That's another reason why Boomers are a lot smarter
than Gen-Xers and Millennials.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Actually you've got that backwards. The reason that you remember
those stories from the 60s and 70s is because drug use was strictly
illegal and officially frowned upon, so when it happened it was big
news. So when you had idiots like Timothy Leary taking LSD and saying
"Turn on, tune in, and drop out," the left-wing media like the NY
Times or Walter Cronkite glorified him because he was so damned COOL.
Janis Joplin was damned COOL too, but of course she died from drugs,
so after that she was no longer cool, and neither was Timothy Leary.

It's different today, because young people are demanding that drugs be
made legal; and even if they're not, they're still freely available.
So today, everyone can easily get drugs, and it's not news anymore,
while in the 60s and 70s, it was very rare to get drugs. So in the
60s and 70s, people talked about drugs, but very few people actually
took drugs, while today a lot of young people today are actually
taking drugs, resulting in a lot of young people with learning
disabilities. That's another reason why Boomers are a lot smarter
than Gen-Xers and Millennials.

Actually both Crime rates and Drug use rates have been consistently declining since the early 1990s.

Leaders like Trump and Carson, and Le Pen in Europe are speaking on behalf of the people. Hillary, Jeb, and McCain personify everything that is wrong with the US. The European establishment Leaders (usually either social democrats or fiscal conservatives) personifies everything that is wrong with Europe today. Who would want losers like Clinton or even sanders running the country? Like trump said when he was confronted by McCain; we should want someone who wins not loses. A couple weeks ago I characterized the mindset of the younger generations in the western world as a fierce three-headed tiger hungry for blood and flesh but chained by boomers. They are tired of boomer leadership who wants westerners to always be humanitarian, what we want is a return to meritocratic government but with social values that analogous to those values last dominant in the west before 1815. Examples of the boomers selfishness over the past 25 years abound, in order from most minor issue to the major issues: First they ignored calls for reform (particularly finance reform) when those calls appeared in the 1990s, secondly they responded to violence in schools by imposing "zero tolerance" and "political correctness" courses rather than actually allowing kids to deal with bullies by force. To more important issues when in 2000 it became apparent that our electoral system wasn't working, Boomers strengthened the supreme court and electoral college instead of doing the right thing and allowing reform to a parliamentary system. When 9/11 occurred the boomers refused to launch nuclear strikes against Muslim cities and population centers which would have shown the America was capable of being far more ruthless than the Islamists were. When our forces went into Afghanistan and Iraq Boomers imposed idiotic rules of engagement which we were forced to carry out humanitarian operations and treat the countries as if our forces were on friendly territory. Boomers refused to sign spheres of influence agreements with either Russia or China, which would of prevented them from joining together against us. Now boomers want to shove refugees down our throats, Only trump Carson and Le Pen in France criticize this nonsense. Boomers obsession with "human rights" and globalism has us in situations where we're forced to shield smaller countries in the event of war rather than those countries taking responsibility for their own defense. Selfish boomers support democracy in Iran, for example but don't want westerners to have decisions derived from the people. The Current Syrian war and Arab spring in general can be used as an example, compare the American and western reactions to that in general with that of Putin's regime. Here our governments want to help "spread democracy" even if it runs contrary to our geopolitical interests, meanwhile putin pursues his own interests without remorse, backing Russia's own interests no matter how many people are killed. What Trump is advocating is that America conduct it's business in general more like the way Putin is doing rather than the way the current establishments in general in Both Europe and North America do business.

That's another reason why Boomers are a lot smarter
than Gen-Xers and Millennials.

More mature, too.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Actually both Crime rates and Drug use rates have been
> consistently declining since the early 1990s.

Still more than Boomers.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> More mature, too.

Maturity is overrated.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Maturity is overrated.

Agreed, it's why I rarely listen to my elders.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Agreed, it's why I rarely listen to my elders.

Ohmigod!!!! The Boomer Hippie Generation is reborn again!!!!

"Don't trust anyone over 30!"
-- Jack Weinberger, San Francisco Boomer Hippie,
free speech activist, 1964.
-- Paraphrased by Jordan Goodspeed, 2015

See also:
http://seniorplanet.org/can-you-trust-anyone-under-30/

I've noticed that John X still hasn't replied to my last post about the political and military defects that are exacerbating the current 4T and what solutions would have the greatest probability of success. Trump is the best candidate current in the race right now.

*** 7-Dec-15 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency
• Fears that Azerbaijan's Sunni Salafists who joined ISIS will return
• Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh surges again

****
**** Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency
****


Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenia (CIA World Fact Book)

On November 26, Azerbaijan officials killed five "radical Islamists"
and arrested 32 others, all members of the radical "Movement for
Muslim Unity," in the village of Nardaran, near the capital city Baku,
for allegedly plotting a coup to establish the "Sharia State of
Azerbaijan."

It sounds like a familiar story that you've read over and over since
the "Arab awakening" began on 2011, but there's one big difference:
The radical Islamists are Shia Muslims, and the Movement for Muslim
Unity is a Shia organization.

Azerbaijan's population is about 80% Shia Muslim, 15% Sunni Muslim and
3% Christian. The government is secular. Nardaran is an extremely
poor village, and a stronghold for Shia Muslim Islamists.

On November 25, the Azerbaijani police arrested Taleh Bagirzadeh (also
known as Bagirov), leader of the Movement for Muslim Unity. As many
as 500 residents of Nardaran came out to the city’s main square to
protest his arrest and demand his release. Clashes with the police
broke out, resulting in five deaths among the demonstrators and two
among the police; 14 people were arrested. The city residents then
threw up barricades and demanded negotiations about those arrested and
the return of the bodies of the dead. At that point, the authorities
shut off power and telephone lines to Nardaran.

The charges were:

<QUOTE>"An armed radical Islamic group was preparing a series
of acts of provocation, terrorist attacks and mass riots. The
interior ministry has taken the necessary measures to neutralize
this group. ... [They were] planning a forcible change of the
constitutional order and the introduction of Sharia law in the
country."<END QUOTE>

=44846&no_cache=1#.VmGyO7_iPFI]Jamestown and AFP and Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR)

****
**** Fears that Azerbaijan's Sunni Salafists who joined ISIS will return
****

Ironically, Azerbaijan also has a Sunni Islamist problem. There are
communities in Azerbaijan’s north where the Salafist influence is on
the rise. Although Sunnis are a small percentage of the population,
it's believed that hundreds of them have been to Syria to join the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) to fight the
Shia/Alawite regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The fear is
that they'll return to Azerbaijan with their newly developed terrorist
skills and use it against their Azeri Shia institutions.

In recent years, developments in Azerbaijan have favored the growth of
both Shia and Sunni Islamists insurgencies. Poverty is extensive.
Corruption is widespread, and the gap between rich and poor is growing
wider every day. The government has become increasingly oppressive,
muzzling non-governmental organization representatives, independent
journalists and rights activists, most of whom happen to be committed
secularists.

Azerbaijan’s "rust city" of Sumgayit is a hotbed of Sunni Islamic
radicals that is thought to have supplied hundreds of jihadists to
ISIS. Towns in northern Azerbaijan near the border with Russia’s
Dagestan, a region long troubled by Islamic militancy, also are a
frequent source of Syria-bound jihadists.

Azerbaijan would be an attractive target for returning ISIS
terrorists. It is one of the few countries in the world with a Shia
Muslim majority population. On a geopolitical level, going after
Azerbaijan would also seem attractive for the ISIS, given the
country's links to Russia, the United States and Iran, three countries
that are among the ISIS's chief antagonists. EurasiaNet (12-Aug-2015) and
EurasiaNet (31-Oct-2014) and Freedom House and Guardian (London)

****
**** Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh surges again
****

Azerbaijan is not lacking in problems. Not only does the mostly Shia
Muslim country have both Sunni and Islamist Muslim insurgencies, but
also one of its provinces, Nagorno-Karabakh, is occupied by the
Orthodox Christian (Armenian Apostolic) Armenians. Armenia and
Azerbaijan fought a very bloody war that ended in 1994 with Armenia
gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, hostilities between
the countries have been "frozen," but simmering. In fact, Azerbaijan
is a country split into two non-connected parts, as shown in the above
map. The enclave on the left is Nakhchivan, which has been the
subject of past conflicts involving Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The war that ended in 1994 has been mostly frozen since then, but
hostilities have suddenly been growing.

According to Azerbaijan's defense ministry, Armenian armed forces have
broken the ceasefire with Azerbaijan 105 times in various parts of the
contact line between Azerbaijani and Armenian armies over the weekend.

According to the Armenia's defense ministry, 110 ceasefire violations
by Azerbaijani armed forces were registered in the reporting period,
with over 1600 shots fired from various caliber artillery weapons.

If the "frozen conflict" suddenly becomes unfrozen, as appears to be
happening, then a renewed conflict would pit Armenia, Russia’s ally,
against Azerbaijan, NATO-member Turkey’s ally. This would be just
like the situation in Syria, where a potential war could emerge
between Russia and Turkey directly. Trend (Azerbaijan) and Pan Armenian and EurasiaNet


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Azerbaijan, Nardaran, Movement for Muslim Unity,
Taleh Bagirzadeh Bagirov, Sumgayit,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Apostolic Church, Nakhchivan, Turkey

Permanent web link to this article
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Speaking of Azeris, you might appreciate this article I posted a couple of days ago. It's from a couple of years ago, and it details the growth of Azeri nationalism in Iran since the 90s.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Actually you've got that backwards. The reason that you remember
those stories from the 60s and 70s is because drug use was strictly
illegal and officially frowned upon, so when it happened it was big
news.

More like I was there watching it happen in front of me. I was a kid when the flower children mutated into hippies and don't even get me started about the disco era.

Originally Posted by Galen

More like I was there watching it happen in front of me. I was a kid when the flower children mutated into hippies and don't even get me started about the disco era.

Sorry you're still pissed off at your parents, but it's time to get over it.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Actually you've got that backwards. The reason that you remember
those stories from the 60s and 70s is because drug use was strictly
illegal and officially frowned upon, so when it happened it was big
news. So when you had idiots like Timothy Leary taking LSD and saying
"Turn on, tune in, and drop out," the left-wing media like the NY
Times or Walter Cronkite glorified him because he was so damned COOL.
Janis Joplin was damned COOL too, but of course she died from drugs,
so after that she was no longer cool, and neither was Timothy Leary.

Of course, Timothy Leary was a GI.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> I've noticed that John X still hasn't replied to my last post
> about the political and military defects that are exacerbating the
> current 4T and what solutions would have the greatest probability
> of success. Trump is the best candidate current in the race right
> now.

You've posted a lot of comments, mostly incoherent rants against
Boomers, so I'm not sure what you're asking about here.

Why don't you restate your requests, and please keep in mind the old
saying, "Brevity is the soul of wit."

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

> Speaking of Azeris, you might appreciate
>
> this article I posted a couple of days ago. It's from a
> couple of years ago, and it details the growth of Azeri
> nationalism in Iran since the 90s.

Thanks for the article reference. That was a great article. I had
been unable to completely sort out the relationship between Azerbaijan
and Iran, and this article clarifies. I was particularly surprised to
learn that Ayatollah Khamenei is Azeri, and I wonder what part ethnic
differences are playing in the current generational conflicts. One
thing that the article points out is that the younger generations are
more tolerant of Azeris because they hate the theocracy (which hates
Turks), and because Turkey is more "European" than Iran, resulting in
a split within the Azeri community itself. Lots of interesting
details.

I thought you'd appreciate it. You can also see the fading of the old sectarian identity that had been established during the last 4T and the gradual rise of a more ethnic and linguistically based nationalist one among the younger generations. The fact that Turkish entertainment is intelligible to Azeris (since linguistically they, the Turkmen of the Levant, and the Turkmen of Central Asia are all speaking variants of the same language) and secular as opposed to theocratic only helps build this new identity, as is detailed in the article. Along with the bit you posted about rising religious sentiment in Azerbaijan along with nationalism, you can see a clear new faultline opening up.

Depending on how our crisis/their Awakening goes, the formation of Kurdistan and Greater Azerbaijan are real possibilities., and if not this time around certainly in the second half of the 21st century when that region's Crisis period comes round again.

*** 8-Dec-15 World View -- Oil prices crash and OPEC collapses over Iran-Saudi rivalry

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Oil prices crash and OPEC collapses over Iran-Saudi rivalry
• Kazakhstan may be forced to choose between Russia and Turkey

****
**** Oil prices crash and OPEC collapses over Iran-Saudi rivalry
****


Iran and Saudi Arabia use oil as a weapon in their sectarian conflicts (CNN)

Oil prices fell over 5% on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
prices crashing below $40 per barrel to $37.65.

The oil markets have changed substantially in the last few days,
because a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) collapsed on Friday, without reaching any agreement
on capping production levels.

Historically, OPEC members have collectively owned about two-thirds of
the world’s proven petroleum reserves and account for two-fifths of
world oil production. OPEC was formed in 1960 in order to gain
control over oil prices by limiting the production of oil. It gained
notoriety by tripling oil prices late in 1973, during and after the
Yom Kippur war between Egypt and Israel, and continuing to raise
prices throughout the remainder of the 1970s.

OPEC has had its ups and downs over the years, but now appears
to be falling apart completely, mainly because of Iran's nuclear
deal with the west. Iran expects to the West to lift sanctions
that have prevented Iran from selling oil. As a result, Iran
plans to come to market with a tsunami of oil next year, which
may push the price of oil down into the 20s.

Up till now, one of the main factors in the fall of oil prices has
been the fracking (hydraulic fracturing) revolution in the United
States, which initially created the oil glut that caused prices to
decline from a high of more than $110 in June 2014.

Iran and other OPEC members wanted to Saudi Arabia to boost
oil prices by cutting its production. But the Saudis have been
saying for a couple of years that they are going to continue
full production in order to put the US drillers out of business.
Fracking isn't profitable unless the price of oil is above $60,
and the strategy has been working, as U.S. rig counts have
fallen substantially.

Saudi Arabia at last week's OPEC meeting had proposed to reduce output
provided that everyone else did as well. "We cannot cut alone," said
an official. "Everyone has to contribute to that – Iran, Iraq, and
the rest outside OPEC." However, Iran and Russia rejected the plan.

With sanctions lifted, Iran expects its own oil production to surge.
Iran's oil minister said that setting production levels "is our right
and anyone cannot limit us. ... [W]e do not expect our colleagues in
OPEC to put pressure on us. ... It is not acceptable, it’s not fair."

That was the end of any hope for a deal. Now, "Everyone does whatever
they want," according to the oil minister of Iran, which plans to
increase exports by a million barrels a day next year.

The huge fall in oil prices has been disastrous for the economies of
oil producing countries, including Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria. As
I've been writing for over ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the world is in a deflationary spiral, and the collapse in oil
prices, and prices of other commodities, appears to be accelerating
that deflationary spiral. Oil Price News and Bloomberg and CNN and CNBC

****
**** Kazakhstan may be forced to choose between Russia and Turkey
****

On the one hand, Kazakhstan is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU), which also includes Belarus, Armenia and
Kyrgyzstan, and of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Russia is Kazakhstan’s largest trade partner.

On the other hand, in the last ten years, Turkey's businesses have
invested $1.8 billion in about 1500 businesses in the Kazakhstan
economy, particularly in the areas of construction, retail commerce,
the processing industry and pharmaceuticals.

Kazakhstan is a Turkic country, and was one of the republics of the
Soviet Union. When it collapsed in 1991, Turkey was the first country
to recognize Kazakhstan's independence.

So Kazakhstan in a difficult situation, and stands to lose from the
Russia-Turkey conflict, no matter what it does.

The worst case scenario for Kazakhstan is that war breaks out, and
Turkey closes the Turkish straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles channels)
-- the waterways that connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea
-- to both Russia and Kazakhstan. ( "4-Dec-15 World View -- Russia and Turkey increasingly on a war footing"
)

Like Turkey and Russia, Kazakhstan is one of the countries that border
the Caspian Sea, and most Kazakh oil is exported to the world market
through the Turkish straits, so their close would be a catastrophe.
That's why Kazakhstan is trying to remain neutral between the
countries, and is struggling to formulate a coherent message that
refrains from offending either side. We'll have to see how long that
will work. Jamestown

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC,
fracking, hydraulic fracturing, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria,
Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Turkish straits, Bosporus, Dardanelles

Permanent web link to this article
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*** 9-Dec-15 World View -- Number of foreign fighters joining ISIS in Syria doubles to 31,000

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Number of foreign fighters joining ISIS in Syria doubles to 31,000
• About 700 women from Tunisia are thought to have joined ISIS
• Return of Russia's foreign fighters from Syria threatens Russian security

****
**** Number of foreign fighters joining ISIS in Syria doubles to 31,000
****


Sources of foreign fighters joining ISIS (Soufan Group)

The foreign fighter phenomenon in Syria and Iraq is a truly global
phenomenon, with at least 86 countries worldwide seeing one of their
citizens or residents travel to Syria to fight for extremist groups
there, primarily for the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).

The number of foreign fighters traveling to Syria has doubled
in the last year, reaching 27,000-31,000.

But the flow is neither uniform by region nor by country, regardless
of the pool of residents who may be susceptible to the Islamic State’s
appeal. That's because The motivation for people to join violent
extremist groups in Syria and Iraq remains more personal than
political. There have been "hotbeds of recruitment" scattered
around the world, which exist because of the personal nature
of recruitment.

Some of these hotbeds are:

• the Lisleby district of Fredrikstad in Norway
• Bizerte and Ben Gardane in Tunisia
• Derna in Libya
• the Pankisi Gorge in Georgia
• the Molenbeek district of Brussels Belgium

As hotbeds develop, recruitment through social media becomes less
important than via direct human contact, as clusters of friends and
neighbors persuade each other to travel separately or together to join
the Islamic State. Soufan Group (PDF) and The National (UAE)

****
**** About 700 women from Tunisia are thought to have joined ISIS
****

Tunisia has suffered two major terrorist attacks this year.
Terrorists attacked the Bardo Museum in Tunis in March, and a gunman
disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in Sousse on
Friday, killing 37 people. ( "27-Jun-15 World View -- Terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia highlight growing sectarian war"
)

Of all the countries in the world supplying foreign fighters to
ISIS in Syria, Tunisia has supplied the most, between 5,000
and 6,000.

According to Tunisia's minister for women Samira Merai,
many of those foreign fighters are girls and women:

<QUOTE>"We have noted a development in the phenomenon of
terrorism. Today there are 700 (Tunisian) women in Syria, and
there are women in Tunisian prisons [on terrorism
charges]."<END QUOTE>

AFP

****
**** Return of Russia's foreign fighters from Syria threatens Russian security
****

In Soviet times, authorities used a registration system that made it
almost impossible for people to move from one region to another
without approval from the Soviet authorities. This meant that rural
residents stayed in the villages, and migration between Soviet
countries was prevented. All of this is now changing quickly,
threatening Russian security. In Russia's North Caucasus provinces,
young Muslims can move from villages to larger cities or to Moscow,
leaving them disconnected from their traditional ethnic communities
and then easily mobilized by radical Islamists.

The form of "migration" that is generating the most concern involves
those who have gone to the Middle East to fight for ISIS or other
radical groups and who are then returning home, where they will
continue their fight or recruit others. Russian officials say that
there are only 500 North Caucasians in the ranks of the ISIS, but
local experts say the figure is 5,000 or even more.

Russian officials have not yet figured out a good strategy to cope
with the jihadists returning from Syria and ISIS. With unemployment
very high and wages very low in the North Caucasus, draconian
counterterrorist operations are proving counterproductive, driving
more North Caucasians into the arms of the radicals rather than
breaking their will. Jamestown/Paul Goble


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Libya, Georgia, Belgium,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tunisia, Samira Merai, Russia, North Caucasus

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 9-Dec-15 World View -- Number of foreign fighters joining ISIS in Syria doubles to 31,000

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Number of foreign fighters joining ISIS in Syria doubles to 31,000
• About 700 women from Tunisia are thought to have joined ISIS
• Return of Russia's foreign fighters from Syria threatens Russian security

****
**** Number of foreign fighters joining ISIS in Syria doubles to 31,000
****


Sources of foreign fighters joining ISIS (Soufan Group)

The foreign fighter phenomenon in Syria and Iraq is a truly global
phenomenon, with at least 86 countries worldwide seeing one of their
citizens or residents travel to Syria to fight for extremist groups
there, primarily for the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).

The number of foreign fighters traveling to Syria has doubled
in the last year, reaching 27,000-31,000.

But the flow is neither uniform by region nor by country, regardless
of the pool of residents who may be susceptible to the Islamic State’s
appeal. That's because The motivation for people to join violent
extremist groups in Syria and Iraq remains more personal than
political. There have been "hotbeds of recruitment" scattered
around the world, which exist because of the personal nature
of recruitment.

Some of these hotbeds are:

• the Lisleby district of Fredrikstad in Norway
• Bizerte and Ben Gardane in Tunisia
• Derna in Libya
• the Pankisi Gorge in Georgia
• the Molenbeek district of Brussels Belgium

As hotbeds develop, recruitment through social media becomes less
important than via direct human contact, as clusters of friends and
neighbors persuade each other to travel separately or together to join
the Islamic State. Soufan Group (PDF) and The National (UAE)

****
**** About 700 women from Tunisia are thought to have joined ISIS
****

Tunisia has suffered two major terrorist attacks this year.
Terrorists attacked the Bardo Museum in Tunis in March, and a gunman
disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in Sousse on
Friday, killing 37 people. ( "27-Jun-15 World View -- Terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia highlight growing sectarian war"
)

Of all the countries in the world supplying foreign fighters to
ISIS in Syria, Tunisia has supplied the most, between 5,000
and 6,000.

According to Tunisia's minister for women Samira Merai,
many of those foreign fighters are girls and women:

<QUOTE>"We have noted a development in the phenomenon of
terrorism. Today there are 700 (Tunisian) women in Syria, and
there are women in Tunisian prisons [on terrorism
charges]."<END QUOTE>

AFP

****
**** Return of Russia's foreign fighters from Syria threatens Russian security
****

In Soviet times, authorities used a registration system that made it
almost impossible for people to move from one region to another
without approval from the Soviet authorities. This meant that rural
residents stayed in the villages, and migration between Soviet
countries was prevented. All of this is now changing quickly,
threatening Russian security. In Russia's North Caucasus provinces,
young Muslims can move from villages to larger cities or to Moscow,
leaving them disconnected from their traditional ethnic communities
and then easily mobilized by radical Islamists.

The form of "migration" that is generating the most concern involves
those who have gone to the Middle East to fight for ISIS or other
radical groups and who are then returning home, where they will
continue their fight or recruit others. Russian officials say that
there are only 500 North Caucasians in the ranks of the ISIS, but
local experts say the figure is 5,000 or even more.

Russian officials have not yet figured out a good strategy to cope
with the jihadists returning from Syria and ISIS. With unemployment
very high and wages very low in the North Caucasus, draconian
counterterrorist operations are proving counterproductive, driving
more North Caucasians into the arms of the radicals rather than
breaking their will. Jamestown/Paul Goble


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Libya, Georgia, Belgium,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tunisia, Samira Merai, Russia, North Caucasus

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It's essentially a European war, based on who the combatants of ISIS are. Especially when one considers that The Mahgreb is ex-Roman Empire and ex-French/Italian territory. If I were an actual Middle Eastern person I'd be looking at all these foreigners and would be very angry. I would want to liquidate them to send a message to others who might be thinking of joining.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> It's essentially a European war, based on who the combatants of
> ISIS are. Especially when one considers that The Mahgreb is
> ex-Roman Empire and ex-French/Italian territory. If I were an
> actual Middle Eastern person I'd be looking at all these
> foreigners and would be very angry. I would want to liquidate them
> to send a message to others who might be thinking of
> joining.

A related point is that the United States is also a European country.

*** 10-Dec-15 World View -- Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe-Assad path of genocide

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe - Assad path of genocide
• EU peace talks collapses on Burundi's failure to commit to human rights

****
**** Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe - Assad path of genocide
****


A policeman walks away after throwing a tear gas canister at protesters in Bujumbura (Reuters)

In Burundi's capital city Bujumbura in the last 24 hours, police and
security courses controlled by Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza killed
seven additional people who opposed Nkurunziza's unconstitutional
third term. At least 240 people have been killed since April, when
Nkurunziza announced his candidacy, and about 215,000 others, thought
to be almost all Tutsis, have fled to neighboring countries. The
latest killings included the wife and child of an assistant pastor of
an Anglican Church.

I've heard several analysts say that there are no signs of anything
like a repeat of the 1994 Rwanda-Burundi Hutu-Tutsi genocide, and
that's absolutely correct. It's only been 21 years since event
occurred, a genocide so horrific that it's considered one of the worst
of the century, comparable to the Nazi Holocaust. Since only 21 years
have past, there are many, many people still alive who are in the
generations that survived that event, and who will not let it happen
again.

However, there may be a different kind of genocide in progress, far
smaller, and far less memorable, but a genocide nonetheless. As I've written in the past,
it appears
increasingly that Nkurunziza is planning to copy the technique of
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe. Mugabe is best known for his 1984 genocidal
pacification campaign known as "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that
washes away the chaff before the spring rain). During that campaign,
accomplished with the help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North
Korea, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe,
were tortured and slaughtered. So far, Nkurunziza hasn't gone as far
as Mugabe, but he is systematically slaughtering and torturing
peaceful protesters from the Tutsi tribe who oppose his grab for
power.

We see the same thing happening in Syria, where Shia/Alawite genocidal
monster president Bashar al-Assad transformed peaceful protests in
2011 into a genocide against innocent Sunnis. Like Nkurunziza and
Mugabe, he's willing to slaughter any number of people, just to stay
in power.

Nkurunziza is starting on the same genocidal path as Mugabe and
al-Assad, but hasn't yet gone so far that he can't turn back.
However, there are no signs that he will. AP and Reuters

****
**** EU peace talks collapses on Burundi's failure to commit to human rights
****

Despite the Burundi government's release of 100 jailed political
prisoners, as a kind of good-will gesture to the EU, negotiations
between the European Union and Burundi representatives collapsed on
Wednesday, according to a European Commission statement:

<QUOTE>"The European Union considers that the essential
elements have not been met by the Republic of Burundi.

Following the consultations held in Brussels on 8 December, the
European Union took note of the replies given by the Burundi
Government and its commitment to provide clarifications to
questions and to accelerate certain judicial procedures.
Nevertheless, the European Union considers the positions expressed
do not help to improve the breaches of the essential elements of
its partnership with the Republic of Burundi."<END QUOTE>

The "essential elements" referenced include progress on human rights,
democratic principles and the rule of law specified in an EU-Burundi
agreement. Presumably "not killing peaceful protesters" is in there
somewhere as well.

According to Adama Dieng, the United Nations special adviser on the
prevention of genocide, there is a serious risk that if the violence
in Burundi isn't stopped there could be a civil war:

<QUOTE>"I would not say that tomorrow there will be a
genocide in Burundi. But there is a serious risk that if we do
not stop the ongoing violence, this may end with a civil war and
following such civil war everything is possible."<END QUOTE>

Now, everyone who reads my World View columns regularly knows how
cynical and jaded I am, so you won't be surprised to read that I'm the
Christmas Grinch who points out that although we all know how
wonderful the United Nations is, and although Adama Dieng may be a
truly wonderful, decent person, and although his mission statement is
wonderfully benevolent:

<QUOTE>"The Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide
acts as a catalyst to raise awareness of the causes and dynamics
of genocide, to alert relevant actors where there is a risk of
genocide, and to advocate and mobilize for appropriate action.

The Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect leads the
conceptual, political, institutional and operational development
of the Responsibility to Protect."<END QUOTE>

But as wonderful as Dieng and his mission are, his budget depends on
how many genocides and almost-genocides and potential-genocides he can
identify, so it's to his benefit to exaggerate the possibility of
genocide.

As I wrote above, a 1994-style civil war is not occurring, and from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics can't occur during a
generational Awakening era. The 1994 genocide came "from the people":
For example, a Hutu who has lived next door to a Tutsi family in
peace, and their children had played together and all that, suddenly
picks up a machete, goes next door, kills and disembodies the husband
and children, then rapes the wife and kills and dismembers her.
Nothing like that is happening in Burundi, or could possibly happen,
since the survivors of the 1994 war won't let it happen. Today's
genocide is all political, all from Nkurunziza.

The UN has been pitifully irrelevant in stopping the genocides in
Rwanda-Burundi and Syria. Dieng won't stop it, unless Nkurunziza
decides he wants to stop it. Episcopal Digital Network and UN Office of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, Hutus, Tutsis,
Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Operation Gukurahundi,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Adama Dieng, Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide

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The Boomer establishment hates trump because he embodies the opposition to their sick dream of a world were every country in the world is a Liberal democracy. The boomer establishment ever since they encountered opposition to their "nation-building", and when Xers and Millies told boomers after 9/11 to either raze the middle east to the ground or not bother fighting at all. Boomers ever since have adopted a strategy of "running out the clock" in the hope that events would force Xers and Millies to fight for "multiculturalism" and "human rights". Their general policy toward reform, is to basically say "sorry I don't hear you" whenever Xers and Millies call for reform and a different form of government. Does the establishment Neoliberal and Neocon political class realize how much regular Americans hate them? The more they call trump a fascist or a totalitarian the more we love him. We want a post-liberal order in this country, by post-liberal I mean in the classical overarching definition, not merely the current partisan definition.

*** 11-Dec-15 World View -- Decaying stadiums from 2004 Athens Olympics have new lives housing migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Decaying stadiums from 2004 Athens Olympics have new lives housing migrants
• Greece transports migrants from Macedonian border back to Athens
• Migrants blocked from Macedonia face difficult choices

****
**** Decaying stadiums from 2004 Athens Olympics have new lives housing migrants
****


2014 photo of the abandoned stadium that hosted the hockey competition during the Athens 2004 Olympic Games (Reuters)

On Wednesday morning, Greece used 45 buses to transport 2,400 migrants
from the Macedonia border back to Athens, dropping the migrants off in
front of the Taekwondo stadium, one of the decaying relics left over
from the ill-fated 2004 Athens Summer Olympics. The Taekwondo stadium
is reportedly nearing maximum capacity and other asylum seekers are
being taken to other stadiums or to Ellinikon, the former Athens
airport.

Athens has been scrambling to find shelter for migrants, and began
using old Olympics stadiums in October. The stadiums are ideal
solutions, because they're athletic venues, so they have such things
as toilets and showers.

Many people blame cost overruns and delays of the $10 billion Athens
2004 Olympics as major contributors to Greece's debt crisis in the
last few years. Once the games ended, there was no money left for
investment and development, so the stadiums have been overrun with
weeds.

The migrant crisis has given new life to the stadiums. According to
Manos Eleftheriou, deputy mayor of Galatsi, "They move on every couple
of days. Here we give them food, medical care, clothing. We provide
theater, music, Spanish food, country music. We're trying to show them
the diversity of the Europe they are going to." Kathimerini and CityLab (11-Aug-2014) and LA Times (12-Nov)

****
**** Greece transports migrants from Macedonian border back to Athens
****

Greek police have removed about 2,400 migrants stuck on the border
with Macedonia, and has transported them by bus back to Athens,
housing them in the decaying stadiums left over from the 2004 Summer
Olympics.

In months past, migrants would travel from Turkey to Greece to
Macedonia for the trip north, hoping to reach the imagined Nirvana of
Germany or Sweden. According to the United Nations refugee agency
(UNHCR), nearly 770,000 migrants have entered Greece so far this year
-- 58% men, 26% children, 16% women. About 3,500 have drowned this
year.

The flow has been slowing down as winter approaches, but only
slightly. An average of 3,800 per day arrived so far in December,
compared to 4,560 per day in November.

Almost all of them arrived first by paying a human smuggler to
transport them from Turkey, across the Aegean Sea, to one of Greece's
islands. This trip is fraught with danger. A major international
news story on Thursday is about a man who lost his wife and seven
children because the human smuggler lied and put all of them on a boat
that could not survive the Aegean Sea.

Once the migrants reach the Greek islands, Greece has been ferrying
them to the continent, and from there they've been making their way to
the Macedonian border.

Much of Europe has been overwhelmed by the massive flow of migrants.
Many people blame Time Magazine Woman of the Year German Chancellor
Angela Merkel for the size of the flow, because of her remarks months
ago that migrants would be welcome in Germany.

Overwhelmed countries have been reacting by erecting razor-wire fences
and imposing border controls, making the trip north harder and harder
for migrants.

Macedonia has now erected its own fence and border controls to allow
only migrants from war-torn Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan to pass
through. Thousands of others are being designated "economic
migrants," and they've been stuck on the border for weeks. Greece has
been transporting them back to Athens. However, they're not being
imprisoned in Athens, and they're free to leave. AFP and Washington Post and AFP

****
**** Migrants blocked from Macedonia face difficult choices
****

The migrants being transported back to Athens are from countries like
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Morocco, Somalia, Eritrea and Algeria.
Since these countries are not a war, Macedonia considers their
citizens to be economic migrants, not refugees.

While the migrants transported back to Athens are not being
imprisoned, they face difficult choices. They have several options:

• They can apply for asylum in Greece, but Greece's asylum
  system is overwhelmed and dysfunctional.
• Unsuccessful asylum claims can result in deportation to country of
  origin. Last week, Greek authorities tried to deport a planeload of
  Pakistani migrants to Islamabad, but had to fly them back to Athens
  after Pakistani authorities refused to accept them in a row over a
  readmission agreement.
• They can opt for voluntary repatriation -- voluntarily returning
  to their home countries -- with the assistance of the International
  Organization for Migration.
• The most popular option is to hire new human smugglers and arrange
  transport north through Bulgaria or the Balkans. In August, 71
  refugees were found asphyxiated in the back of a smuggler’s truck
  abandoned on the side of a motorway in Austria.

IRIN (United Nations)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Macedonia, Greece, Athens,
Taekwondo stadium, Ellinikon, Manos Eleftheriou, Galatsi,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Morocco, Somalia, Eritrea, Algeria,
Bulgaria, Balkans

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Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> The Boomer establishment hates trump because he embodies the
> opposition to their sick dream of a world were every country in
> the world is a Liberal democracy. The boomer establishment ever
> since they encountered opposition to their "nation-building", and
> when Xers and Millies told boomers after 9/11 to either raze the
> middle east to the ground or not bother fighting at all. Boomers
> ever since have adopted a strategy of "running out the clock" in
> the hope that events would force Xers and Millies to fight for
> "multiculturalism" and "human rights". Their general policy toward
> reform, is to basically say "sorry I don't hear you" whenever Xers
> and Millies call for reform and a different form of
> government. Does the establishment Neoliberal and Neocon political
> class realize how much regular Americans hate them? The more they
> call trump a fascist or a totalitarian the more we love him. We
> want a post-liberal order in this country, by post-liberal I mean
> in the classical overarching definition, not merely the current
> partisan definition.

As Marx & Lennon recently suggested, you don't hate Neocons and
Neoliberals. You hate your parents.

Obama and Trump are mirror images of each other, and both are
embarassments to the United States.

Obama never tires of implying that the entire country is mean and
racist, never tires of inciting black violence against cops, never
tires of blaming innocent gun owners for the crimes of Islamist
terrorists, or of making moronic remarks like blaming terrorism on
climate change.

Trump has no clue what's going on in the world, and thinks that
foreign policy consists of insulting any racial or religious group or
person he dislikes by treating them as he would the incompetent jerks
who work for him. His money has gone to his head, and he thinks that
he can buy anything, leaving him free to be as destructive and
offensive as he wants to other people. His recent statements about
banning Muslims are a disgrace to America. However, people are
supporting Trump because they're sick and tired of being constantly
offended, insulted and lectured to by Obama.

But since you're someone who thinks it's OK to freely bomb and
exterminate Muslim cities, I can see why you like Trump. Maybe he'll
make you his Secretary of State.

*** 12-Dec-15 World View -- Russia and Turkey try to 'blackmail' Armenia into their conflict

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia and Turkey try to 'blackmail' Armenia into their conflict
• The mirror images: Donald Trump and Barack Obama

****
**** Russia and Turkey try to 'blackmail' Armenia into their conflict
****


Russian Mi24 helicopters

With the dispute between Russia and Turkey showing no signs of ending,
Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has called Turkey's downing of
a Russian warplane a "casus belli" (justification for war), although
he added that full-scale war is not planned. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)

Russia already has soldiers stationed in a Russian military base in
Armenia, near the border with Turkey, and those Russian troops have
been put on high alert. Seven Russian Mi-24P attack helicopters and
some Mi-8 transport helicopters have been delivered to another
Russian military base in Armenia.

Even before the downing of the Russian plane, plans had already been
announced for a unified air defense system, where Russia would extend
its air defense system to Armenian airspace in order to contain Turkey
in particular, and Nato more generally.

To add to the tensions, the day after the plane was downed, Russia's
Parliament introduced a bill that any individual who denies that
Turkey committed genocide against the Armenians in 1915 is to be fined
500,000 rubles (more than $7,500). The Armenian genocide accusations
have been infuriating Turks for decades.

Armenia is a long-time ally of Russia, but Armenia is concerned that
it's going to be dragged into the Russia-Turkey against its will.
According to Manvel Sargsyan head of the Armenian Center for National
and International Studies, Armenia's close relationship with Russia
has gone on for many years, but:

<QUOTE>"Now, it causes big problems. At this point we can not
abandon that policy; instead, the desire to create a unified air
defense system will further those relations. Armenia has allowed
Russia to use its air defense units. ... Of course, the new
situation in the region, and will deepen these processes, which
contains many dangers."<END QUOTE>

Even worse, Armenia is being blackmailed into becoming a pawn in the
conflict, because Turkey will encourage its ally Azerbaijan to provoke
Armenia via the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. (See "7-Dec-15 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
)

According to Sargsyan:

<QUOTE>"One thing is clear. The conflict that arose between
Russia and Turkey ... makes use of the various factors
involved. And if Russia so demonstrably raises the issue of the
[Armenian] Genocide, it is natural that Turkey should remember the
[Nagorno-]Karabakh issue to the parties involved in the
conflict. Firstly, this is blackmail, but it would have meant that
both sides are trying to involve Armenia in the conflict. And it
creates a difficult situation for Armenia, taking into account
Armenia's and Russia's strategic relationships, attachment to each
other."<END QUOTE>

Sargsyan added that Turkey had hoped that Nato would defend Turkey's
claim that the Russian plane had entered Turkey's airspace before
being shot down. According to Sargsyan, Nato's member states
were opposed to defending Turkey, and so it was left to Nato's
Secretary General to make a statement defending Turkey. Thus,
Turkey has created problems for Nato.

Now, according to Sargsyan, Turkey "is doing everything in order to be
able to come out of this hole," and so it's involving other countries,
including Armenia. Jamestown and Deutsche Welle and Armenia Now (26-Nov) and First News (Armenia, 1-Dec) (Trans)

****
**** The mirror images: Donald Trump and Barack Obama
****

Obama and Trump are mirror images of each other, and both are
embarrassments to the United States.

Years ago, John Kenneth Galbraith developed the concept of
"countervailing power" in labor markets -- large corrupt corporations
give rise to large corrupt labor unions. In the same sense,
Obama has given rise to Trump.

Obama never accomplishes anything, but never tires of implying that
the entire country is mean and racist, never tires of inciting black
violence against cops, never tires of disparaging and offending
Christians, never tires of blaming innocent gun owners for the crimes
of Islamist terrorists, or of making moronic remarks like blaming
terrorism on climate change, while his foreign policy has been one
disaster after another.

Trump has no clue what's going on in the world, and thinks that
foreign policy consists of insulting any racial or religious group or
person he dislikes by treating them as he would any incompetent jerks
who work for him. His money has made him powerful, and his power has
gone to his head and made him completely corrupt. He thinks that he
can buy anything or fire anyone, leaving him free to be as destructive
and offensive as he wants to other people. His recent statements about
banning Muslims are a disgrace to America. However, people are
supporting Trump because they're sick and tired of being constantly
offended, insulted and lectured to by Obama, while accomplishing
nothing.

Obama is the cause of Trump, and is to blame for Trump, by the
principle of "countervailing power." But it's neither Obama nor
Trump, but the rest of us who will have to pay the consequences.
EconLib: John Kenneth Galbraith: Countervailing Power

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Armenian genocide,
Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Manvel Sargsyan, Nato

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