*** 13-Dec-15 World View -- India, China, U.S. react to China's S. China Sea military expansion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Worst violence in months in Burundi's capital city Bujumbura
• China increases South China Sea military buildup
• India, Japan, U.S. react to China's military expansion

****
**** Worst violence in months in Burundi's capital city Bujumbura
****


Men carry away a dead body in Bujumbura on Saturday (VOA)

Residents in several neighborhoods of Bujumbura, that capital city of
Burundi, were horrified to leave their homes early Saturday morning
and find dozens of corpses scattered in the streets. The military
said that they had killed 79 "enemies" who had attack their army base,
killing eight soldiers and policemen.

This is the worst violence in Bujumbura since two-term President
Pierre Nkurunziza announced plans to seek an unconstitutional third
term, and then won an election that many observers have said was
rigged. Analysts say nearly 250 people have been killed since then,
and that some 200,000 residents have fled to nearby countries to
escape the violence.

As we wrote just three days ago ( "10-Dec-15 World View -- Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe-Assad path of genocide"
), Nkurunziza appears to be
using an increasing amount of violence to stay in power illegally, and
may be going down the same path as Syria's Bashar al-Assad and
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, both of whom have used massive genocidal
violence to stay in power. VOA and AP

****
**** China increases South China Sea military buildup
****

China appears on the path of building a massive military presence by
means of the artificial islands it has created around the Spratly
Islands in the South China Sea.

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues to use
belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has
claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside
of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court
deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

China already has one airfield, and satellite photos show work on two
or three additional airstrips. Having military airbases in this
region would significantly change the balance of power in the region.

The airfields would allow Chinese aircraft to refuel, repair and if
necessary, rearm without having to fly the more than 1,000 kilometers
(620 miles) to the nearest Chinese air base on Hainan island. On the
other hand, they would also be highly vulnerable to bombing in an
actual conflict.

Just as important, the airbases give China military control over the
vast mineral deposits and fishing fields in the region. According to
one analyst, "If we start to see satellite evidence of fuel storage
going in on a large scale in the artificial islands, that will be the
clearest indicator that China is planning to develop them as active
air bases." International Business Times and AP

****
**** India, Japan, U.S. react to China's military expansion
****

China's continuing rapid military expansion in the South China Sea is
causing countervailing responses on the part of several countries.

The United States has been challenging China by sending surveillance
planes and ships into the regions near the artificial islands. China
has angrily warned that such incursions are illegal, but Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

On Monday of last week, Singapore and the U.S. issued a joint
statement that a P8 Poseidon spy plane would be deployed in Singapore.
The move is clearly aimed at China, and is likely to anger China.

In another development targeting China, Japan's prime minister Shinzo
Abe has visited India, and a joint statement with India's prime
minister Narendra Modi said:

<QUOTE>"In view of critical importance of the sea lanes of
communications in the South China Sea for regional energy security
and trade and commerce which underpins continued peace and
prosperity of the Indo-Pacific, the two Prime Ministers noting the
developments in the South China Sea called upon all States to
avoid unilateral actions that could lead to tensions in the
region."<END QUOTE>

Modi and Abe have issued joint statements before, but this is the
first time that they've explicitly mentioned the South China Sea
which, once again, is going to infuriate China.

In response to a similar statement in September, China issued this
statement, which describes "The Five Persistences":

<QUOTE>"China enjoys indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha
(Spratly) Islands and their adjacent waters as well as sovereign
rights and jurisdiction over relevant seabed and subsoil,” the
Chinese ministry of foreign affairs had told HT in a written
statement. ...

We have always adhered to the principle of 'Five Persistence,'
which stands for

• persistence in maintaining the peace and stability of
  South China Sea;
• persistence in settling disputes with the party concerned
  according to the International laws via bilateral negotiation
  based on respect for historical facts;
• persistence in relying on rule-based system to control
  disputes;
• persistence in sustaining the freedom of flight and
  navigation in South China Sea;
• persistence in practicing a win-win policy via
  cooperation."

<END QUOTE>

It sounds good, and one might almost be tempted to believe some of it,
if it weren't for China's aggressive military buildup and belligerent
military actions in the South China Sea. China's message has always
been, as far as I can tell: We want to have harmonious relations with
you. Just do exactly as we order you to do, and we'll have harmonious
relations. If you don't, then we'll kill you, and after that we'll
have harmonious relations that way. Reuters and Indian Express and Hindustan Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Bujumbura, Pierre Nkurunziza,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
China, South China Sea, Singapore, P8 Poseidon spy plane, Ash Carter,
Japan, Shinzo Abe, India Narendra Modi

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*** 14-Dec-15 World View -- Russian Duma goes after Protestant churches as 'sects and cults'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian Duma goes after Protestant churches as 'sects and cults'
• Central African Republic elections may worsen Muslim-Christian violence

****
**** Russian Duma goes after Protestant churches as 'sects and cults'
****


Russian Orthodox Church

The fall of Constantinople and the Orthodox Christian Byzantine Empire
to the Muslim Ottomans in 1453 triggered a major turning point in
Russia. Russia would become an Orthodox Christian state, and the
protector of Jerusalem from the Ottomans.

The Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 was a bloody repudiation of that
decision, resulting in the near-destruction of the Russian Orthodox
Church and the declaration that Russia and the Soviet Union were an
atheist state. The Russian Orthodox Church only began to seriously
revive again during World War II, when Josef Stalin discovered that he
needed the help of the Church to fight the Nazis. Since the collapse
of the Soviet Union in 1991, Vladimir Putin has led the way for the
full restoration of the Russian Orthodox Church in Russia and Russia's
government. (See "Russian Orthodox Church reunites 80 years after Bolshevik Revolution"

from 2007.)

In 1997, Russia enacted the Freedom of Conscience Law, which enacted
separation of church and state, making Russia a secular state, not an
atheist state, with freedom of religion. Since then, the law has been
amended so much that there is little freedom of religion now, except
for the Russian Orthodox Church.

Now Russia's Duma is going farther. Led by Abbot Serapion, the deputy
head of the Church's missionary department, the Duma is considering
going after "sects and destructive cults" which challenge Russia's
national security.

In the past, "destructive totalitarian sects" referred to Mormons,
Jehovah's Witnesses, Scientologists, the Unification Church (Moonies),
and Hare Krishna, and were thought to be undermining the state.

But today, the main enemies, according to Serapion, are the
"Protestants (Christians - Baptists, Pentecostals, Charismatics,
Adventists), Jehovah's Witnesses, in the company of neopagans and
Wahhabi extremists." While the Russian Orthodox Church fully
supported the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, many of
these "sects and cults" opposed the Ukraine actions, making them
enemies of the state.

According to the new proposed amendments to the 1997 law, any group of
ten or more believers must notify the authorities of their existence,
lists of members, meeting places, and the amount of income.

It appears that Russia is abandoning its secular identity and
returning to its traditional identity prior to the Bolshevik
Revolution -- a Russian Orthodox state.

In the current world, there's talk of an Islamic State, a Muslim
state, a Jewish state, a Palestinian state, a Hindu state, and so
forth. So a Russian Orthodox state fits right into this increasingly
nationalistic and xenophobic world as the generational Crisis era
deepens. Eurasia Review - Paul Goble and Slavic Center for Law and Justice (SCLJ) - Roman Lunkin - Part I translation and Part II translation and CNS News

****
**** Central African Republic elections may worsen Muslim-Christian violence
****

Central African Republic (CAR) voted on a new constitution on Sunday,
but there were many problems with the referendum, and combined with
the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for on 27
December, it's feared that the elections will cause more anger and
more violence. Heavy gunfire has already broken out in the Muslim
district of Bangui, the capital city, during the referendum.

It was just two weeks ago that Pope Francis visited Bangui to propose
"a renewed attention to the idea of a respectful urban integration, as
opposed to elimination, paternalism, indifference or mere
containment." ( "28-Nov-15 World View -- Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war"
)

The two elections were supposed to be the mechanism by which this
"respectful urban integration" would take place -- that is, the
Muslims and the Christians would stop killing each other.

However, the elections have already been postponed from the original
scheduled date of October 27, and they are still fraught with severe
problems:

• François Bozizé, who was president of CAR for ten years, is
  being prevented from running, as has Patrice Edouard Ngaissona, a
  prominent Christian militia leader. Both Bozizé and Ngaissona have
  been sanctioned by the United Nations for supporting violence in the
  past, but without them running, their supporters may use violence t
  sabotage the election.
  
• Some 460,000 CAR citizens are in refugee camps across the border
  in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Cameroon, Chad and
  Congo-Brazzaville. Unelected interim president Catherine Samba Panza
  tried to exclude them from voting, even though they're mostly Muslims
  who have been driven out of the country, reinforcing the sectarian
  narrative that Muslims, which make up about 15% of the population, do
  not belong in the CAR. Finally the transitional government was forced
  to allow them to participate from outside the country.
  
• According to some estimates, only 60% of the electorate are
  registered to vote, despite government claims that 95% are
  registered.
  
• Much of the country is under the effective control of armed
  groups, both Christian and Muslim, that may interfere with the voting.
  For example, Nourredine Adam, the leader of a major Muslim faction,
  has said that elections cannot go ahead in the areas under his
  influence.
  
• On Sunday, CAR's voters are expected to approve or reject a new
  constitution about which they know almost nothing. Similarly, they
  know almost nothing about the 42 candidates who will run for president
  on December 27.
  
• Interim president Samba Panza, who will leave office on December
  31, is seen by some "as a venal and incompetent liability."
  
• France has been accused of rushing the elections so that they can
  remove their peacekeeping force. According to one analyst, "The
  French were thinking about their exit strategy the moment they set
  foot in the CAR. They want to secure the electoral process and then
  immediately send away the troops."

As I've written in detail several times in the past ( "2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war"
), CAR is deep
into a generation Crisis era and in the middle of a generational
crisis war. A new constitution is little more than a piece of paper,
and it's not going to stop the huge generational forces that are
pushing the Muslims and Christians into this war of mutual
extermination. The war will not end until it's run it's course, and
apparently still has a long way to go. BBC and African Arguments Forum


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Duma, Vladimir Putin,
Freedom of Conscience Law, Russian Orthodox Church, Abbot Serapion,
Pope Francis, Central African Republic, François Bozizé,
Patrice Edouard Ngaissona, Catherine Samba Panza, Nourredine Adam

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*** 15-Dec-15 World View -- BBC reporter confronts China's military in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egyptian scholar: The original al-Aqsa mosque may not have been in Jerusalem
• BBC reporter confronts China's military in South China Sea

****
**** Egyptian scholar: The original al-Aqsa mosque may not have been in Jerusalem
****


Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem

In a recent TV interview, Egyptian scholar Youssef Ziedan said that
the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Palestine is not the Al-Aqsa Mosque referred to
in the Quran. Citing ancient scholars, Ziedan said that the Al-Haram
Mosque and Al-Aqsa Mosque were "on the road from Mecca to Ta'if."
"Neither we nor the [Jews] have anything to do with it," he
said. "It's all politics."

Ziedan is quoted as saying:

<QUOTE>"Hamiqdash ["the temple"] is a Hebrew word. This is a
Hebrew concept. The Christian [name of Jerusalem] is "Aelia." The
Al-Aqsa Mosque, in my view, is not the one [in Jerusalem]. It
cannot be. ...

Our ancient religious scholars ... said that the Prophet Muhammad,
... went to the city of Tai'f. On the road to Ta'if, there were
two mosques: Al-Adna Mosque ["the nearest"] and Al-Aqsa Mosque
["the farthest"]. The Quranic verse [17:1] ... says: "Exalted is
He who took His Servant by night from the Al-Haram Mosque to the
Al-Aqsa Mosque, the surroundings of which We have blessed." At
that time there was no prayers yet. So it was a place of
worship. The place was well known. Otherwise, its location would
have been specified. Therefore, ... these two mosques were on the
road from Mecca to Ta'if. ...

The Al-Aqsa Mosque [in Jerusalem] did not exist back then, and the
city was not called "Al-Quds." It was called Aelia, and it had no
mosques. ... The Al-Aqsa Mosque represents a political game by
[Caliph] Abd Al-Malik ibn Marwan."<END QUOTE>

So I did some checking on Caliph Abd Al-Malik ibn Marwan. Abd al
Malik was Caliph from 685 to 705, several decades after the death of
Mohammed. He was clearly not only a conquering military leader, but
also a politician. He centralized power in the capital at Damascus,
he was responsible for establishing Arabic as a standard language, he
centralized the control of minting money by standardizing coins of
remarkable uniformity, and he even established a postal service.

He also oversaw the construction of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem,
which celebrated the location of the ascent of Prophet Mohammed and
proclaimed Islamic dominance over Jerusalem, the holy city of Judaism
and Christianity. The Dome of the Rock was also meant to compete with
the great Byzantine holy sites in the region.

It's this last accomplishment that's being challenged by Egyptian
scholar Youssef Ziedan. If I understand what Ziedan is saying, Abd
Al-Malik was a politician who named Jerusalem as the site of the
al-Aqsa Mosque and the ascent of Mohammed for purely political
reasons, when the real al-Aqsa Mosque was hundreds of miles to the
south, near Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

It's an interesting theory, and makes for good political talking
points during the various "peace process" negotiations. But whether
it's true or not, it won't make any difference. Jerusalem is the
epicenter of the growing conflict between Jews and Palestinians, and
nothing that Ziedan says is going to change that. Memri and Oxford Islamic Studies and Metropolitan Museum of Art and Islam Laws

****
**** BBC reporter confronts China's military in South China Sea
****

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

In pursuit of that pledge, the U.S. has repeatedly flown, sailed and
operated close to China's artificial islands in the South China Sea,
despite warnings from China. Apparently Australia has done the same.

Last week, BBC reporter Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, with a small crew,
hired a plane in the Philippines, and flew past China's artificial
islands. At the first set of artificial islands, the pilot got
nervous and turned away. After hours of negotiation, the pilot agreed
to stay on course in traveling near the second set of artificial
islands.

There was a radio conversation between the Chinese Navy and the pilot:

<QUOTE>China: "Foreign military aircraft in north-west
of Meiji Reef, this is the Chinese Navy, you are threatening the
security of our station! In order to prevent miscalculation leave
this area immediately!"

Pilot: "Chinese Navy, this is Philippine civilian aircraft
en route to Palawan, carrying civilian passengers. We are not a
military aircraft, we are a civilian single-engine aircraft."

China: "Foreign military aircraft in north of Meiji Reef,
this is the Chinese Navy!"<END QUOTE>

The loud and aggressive Chinese warnings continued until the plane
left the region.

According to Wingfield-Hayes:

<QUOTE>Below us we could see the lagoon teeming with ships,
large and small. On the new land, cement plants and the
foundations of new buildings.

Then, as we rounded a cloud, we got the first clear view of the
new runway China is building here, just 140 nautical miles from
the Philippine coast. I did a quick calculation. A Chinese fighter
jet taking off from here could be over the Philippine coast in as
little as eight or nine minutes."<END QUOTE>

He adds, "[China] is building new runways, high-powered radar stations
and deep-water port facilities." It's clear that China fully intends
to militarize these artificial islands. And once they're completed,
there's little doubt that they'll be used for military action against
neighboring countries. As has been clear for years, China is
preparing for preemptive war, and will trigger World War III unless
Russia beats them to it. What's most worrying is that the Chinese are
deluding themselves into believing that, in the end, no one will
challenge their military takeover of the South China Sea, and that
there won't be a war. This is a disastrous self-delusion that China
and the whole world will regret. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jerusalem, al-Aqsa Mosque, Dome of the Rock,
Youssef Ziedan, Saudi Arabia, Mecca, Ta'if, Aelia,
Abd Al-Malik ibn Marwan,
Ash Carter, Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, China, South China Sea,
Philippines, Palawan

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*** 16-Dec-15 World View -- China and Ukraine develop closer ties, as Russia looks on

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan and South Korea leaders attempt to rewrite history textbooks
• China and Ukraine develop closer ties, as Russia looks on

****
**** Japan and South Korea leaders attempt to rewrite history textbooks
****


Street protests in Seoul, South Korea, over government plan to write a history textbook (AFP)

Japan's prime minister Abe Shinzo is proposing that school history
textbooks be rewritten to stop over-emphasizing Japan's colonial past,
and stop presenting a negative image of Japan, and instead to instill
a sense of national pride among Japanese citizens.

South Korea's president Park Guen-hye is proposing that school history
textbooks be rewritten so that they won't be so ideologically biased,
and instead to instill a sense of pride among the South Korean
citizens.

This appeal to nationalism in both countries is typical of the grown
in nationalism in countries around the world, as the world enters a
generational Crisis era, as the survivors of World War II continue to
die off.

But for both Abe and Shinzo, these attempts to rewrite history go
beyond their country's nationalism, and are extremely personal.

Abe's grandfather, Nobusuko Kishi, worked under prime minister Hideki
Tojo during World War II, enslaving thousands of Koreans and Chinese,
and ended up serving three years in jail as a Class A war criminal,
before later becoming the prime minister of Japan in 1957. Since
assuming office, Abe declared his intention to restore the honour of
his grandfather as well as other wartime veterans.

Park's father, Park Chung-hee, led South Korea from 1961 until 1979,
when he was assassinated. He brutally crushed democracy protests
during his reign in which thousands were killed, and also carried out
massive human rights violations in the name of economic development in
South Korea. Park believes that her father's history should more
greatly emphasize his accomplishments.

All of these proposed changes are extremely controversial, and many
people and scholars in both countries strongly oppose attempts by the
government's leaders to revise school textbooks to reflect their own
biases. Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS - India) and
BBC and
Japan Times and Korea Herald

****
**** China and Ukraine develop closer ties, as Russia looks on
****

A lot of people believe that Russia and China are close allies,
because they both annex other countries' territories, because they
both support each other in the United Nations Security Council and
veto the same things, and because they both oppose the West in general
and the United States in particular in many areas.

Countering that view is that Ukraine is the world's fourth-largest
arms exporter (behind the U.S., Russia and China), and that
China is one of Ukraine's most important customers.

Ukraine and China have just agreed that a Ukraine firm will open
manufacturing plant in Odessa next year to manufacture China's Hongdu
L-15 light attack aircraft.

There are many ironies in this situation. When the Soviet Union
collapsed in December 1991, many Soviet military assets were split up
among the 15 newly independent countries. Since then, Ukraine has
continued manufacturing jet engines and supplying them to Russia for
some of Russia's warplanes.

However, after Russia illegally invaded, occupied and annexed Crimea
in March 2014, Ukraine embargoed exports of the jet engines to Russia.
Now those same jet engines will be components of the Hongdu L-15
warplanes being sold to China. Russia in the meantime has had to
develop and manufacture its own variants of the same jet engines.

It's not just military hardware that China is importing from Ukraine.
90% of China's imported corn and 95% of imported sunflower oil comes
from Ukraine. There are plans for China to invest in Ukraine's energy
industry, infrastructure and construction.

As regular readers know, I've been writing for years that Generational
Dynamics predicts that Russia will be our ally and China will be our
enemy in the next world war. In brief, China will be allied with
Pakistan, while the US will be allied with India, which will be allied
with Russia and Iran. (See "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)

Since being isolated internationally after invading Ukraine, and
because of crashing oil prices, Russia's economy has been collapsing,
and Russia has desperately turned to China for help, signing energy
deals highly favorable to the Chinese. China's growing relationship
with Ukraine illustrates the China really doesn't care what Russia
thinks, and history shows that Russia and China are much more certain
to be enemies than allies. Jamestown and Kiev.ua (Ukraine) and Xinhua

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Abe Shinzo, South Korea, Park Guen-hye,
Nobusuko Kishi, Hideki Tojo, Park Chung-hee,
China, Ukraine, Russia, Hongdu L-15 warplane

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*** 17-Dec-15 World View -- Despite China's disapproval, US will sell $1.83 billion in weapons to Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia and Ukraine escalate mutual trade sanctions over occupied Crimea
• Despite China's disapproval, US will sell $1.83 billion in weapons to Taiwan

****
**** Russia and Ukraine escalate mutual trade sanctions over occupied Crimea
****


Crimean Tatars living in Turkey hold flags during a protest to call for human rights in Crimea last week, outside the Russian embassy in Ankara (AFP)

Russia on Wednesday announced plans to launch a second electric power
supply cable from Russia directly to occupied Crimea.

Crimea, which was occupied and annexed by Russia last year after its
invasion of Ukraine, declared a state of emergency
in November after the entire peninsula was plunged
into darkness because the transmission towers (pylons) carrying
electricity lines from Ukraine were sabotaged. It's believed that the
perpetrators were ethnic Tatars who had lived in Crimea prior to the
Russian annexation. Ukraine's government in Kiev promised to restore
electricity within four days, but that was delayed because of
blockades set up by the Tatars.

The Crimean Peninsula’s only land border is with Ukraine, which means
that Russia cannot use trucks to transport goods from Russia to
Crimea. However, Russia's territory of Krasnodar has its own
peninsula that stretches into the Black Sea, below the Sea of Asov, so
that it's only a few miles across the Kerch strait to the eastern edge
of Crimea. So Russia has is building its electric cables across the
Kerch strait, and has also been ferrying supplies in the same way.

Since Russia annexed Crimea last year, Ukraine and Russia have been
in tit-for-tat escalating sanctions
with each other. Russia has announced an embargo on food
imports from Ukraine, to begin in January. Ukraine announced that it
was planning to end all commercial trade with occupied Crimea, and
this week on Wednesday, Ukraine officially announced that in 30 days,
"all supplies of work, goods and services from the temporary occupied
territory to the other territory of Ukraine and/or from the territory
of Ukraine to the temporary occupied territory of Ukraine, except for
personal belongings of citizens, socially important foods and
humanitarian assistance, are banned."

After the electricity supplies from Ukraine to Crimea had been cut
off, there were warnings that Russia might retaliate by haling coal
shipments from Russia, resulting in winter blackouts all over Ukraine.
Some observers are suggesting that a secret backroom deal occurred --
Ukraine would resume electricity supplies to Crimea in exchange for
resumed Russian coal shipments to Ukraine.
Jamestown and Russia Today and International Business Times and Reuters

****
**** Despite China's disapproval, US will sell $1.83 billion in weapons to Taiwan
****

The United States announced the sale of $1.83 billion in weapons to
Taiwan, under the terms of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which was
passed to ensure that Taiwan can maintain a credible defense in case
of an attack from China.

The timing of the announcement is interesting for two reasons.

First, tensions between the US and China in the South China Sea have
been increasing. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, and is
annexing regions that have historically belonged to other nations.
China appears to be in the process of building a massive military base
on artificial islands, and the US and other countries have been
confronting China simply by sailing and flying in the vicinity of the
artificial islands, which are considered international waters, despite
loud and aggressive Chinese warnings
not to do so.

Second, Taiwan is about to hold new elections on January 16, and the
current governing party, the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party, is
expected to lose to the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP). According to China, Taiwan is Chinese sovereign territory, and
China has frequently threatened military action if Taiwan's leaders
take any steps towards independence from China. China and the KMT
party are very friendly towards each other, while China and the DPP
feel vitriolic hatred towards each other.

In view of the expected change of government, it's thought that the US
announced the arms sale now, since after January 16 it would be seen
as a hostile signal to China that the US was rewarding the DPP for its
victory.

Even so, China expressed its fury at the arms sale. China's Vice
Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang on Wednesday summoned Kaye Lee, chargé
d'affaires of the U.S. embassy in China, and made this statement:

<QUOTE>"Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's
territory. China strongly opposes the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan.

The arms sale severely goes against international law and the
basic norms of international relations, severely goes against the
principles in the three China-U.S. joint communiques, and severely
harms China's sovereignty and security interests.

To safeguard our national interests, China has decided to take
necessary measures, including imposing sanctions against the
companies involved in the arms sale.

No one can shake the firm will of the Chinese government and
people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial
integrity, and to oppose foreign interference."<END QUOTE>

However, according to one Chinese expert, the weapons will not make
any substantial change because the weapons are outdated. LA Times and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Tatars,
Krasnodar, Kerch strait, China, Taiwan, 1979 Taiwan Relations Act,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party,
Zheng Zeguang, Kaye Lee

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*** 18-Dec-15 World View -- Another Putin lie: America wanted Turkey to shoot down Russia's plane

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Another Putin lie: America wanted Turkey to shoot down Russia's plane
• Vladimir Putin praises Donald Trump
• Israel and Turkey reach preliminary deal to normalize relations
• Turkey announces plans to build a military base in Qatar

****
**** Another Putin lie: America wanted Turkey to shoot down Russia's plane
****


Putin at his tv call-in marathon on Thursday (AP)

On Thursday, Russia's president Vladimir Putin gave one of his
marathon voter call-ins, answering people's questions for three hours.

Apparently he was feeling good because he finally admitted that there
were Russia troops in Ukraine, essentially also admitting that he lied
about it in the past, but we all knew that anyway.

What was more significant was that he all but accused the United
States and President Obama of a secret deal with Turkey: Turkey would
shoot down a Russian plane, and America would get a part of Iraq:

<QUOTE>"We do not know it for sure and we do not know whether
it was right or wrong if somebody in the Turkish authorities
decided to lick Americans in a certain place.

Firstly, I do not know whether Americans need it or not. Perhaps
there were some agreements at a certain level, that ‘we shoot down
a Russian plane and you close your eyes on it,’ and that we, let’s
say, enter Iraq and occupy some part of Iraq.

I do not know, but maybe such exchange did take place, however, we
do not know it for sure."<END QUOTE>

If Obama had wanted to occupy some part of Iraq, he would have done so
months ago. Obama has repeatedly made it clear that he doesn't, and
Putin knows that, so Putin knows that his remark is completely full of
crap. Putin's remarks are simply a new lie.

Putin's technique is that when something goes well, he takes the
credit, and when something goes wrong, he blames it on America. This
is the same kind of technique that President Obama uses, taking credit
when something goes right, and blaming President Bush when something
goes wrong.

With regard to Ukraine:

<QUOTE>"We never said that there weren’t people there [in
Ukraine] dealing with certain tasks, including in the military
sphere.

But that doesn’t mean there are regular Russian forces there. Feel
the difference."<END QUOTE>

In fact, Putin repeatedly denied that there were no military role in
Ukraine, so this is an admission of past lies. Keep in mind we
already know that there were thousands of Russian troops in Ukraine,
because last year it was reported by multinational sources, including
British and European reporters, Nato, the Organization for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and the U.S. State Dept.

In fact, several Russian officials were forced to admit that Russian
soldiers were participating in the invasion of Ukraine, but they
always insisted that they were "volunteers."

This is another joke. Last year we quoted the Moscow Times as saying:

<QUOTE>"About 190,000 members of the 760,000-strong Russian
army are currently serving upon their own volition. The rest are
conscripts."<END QUOTE>

So when Russian officials refer to "volunteers," they're referring to
the 190,000 "volunteers" in the Russian army. By the way, the
American army is 100% "volunteers," so when we send soldiers to
Afghanistan, they're just "volunteers."

Two weeks ago, I made list of several of Russia's recent lies about Ukraine and Syria:
Russia lied about
its invasion of Crimea, Russia lied about invading east Ukraine,
Russia lied after shooting down a passenger plane over Ukraine, Russia
lied about Syria's president al-Bashar Assad's use of Sarin gas on his
own people, Russia lied about the purpose of its military intervention
into Syria as being to attack ISIS.

A number of web site readers, including several paid Russian trolls,
complained that I was being unfair repeating Russian lies. My
response is that if Putin and other Russian officials keep lying over
and over and over, then they can't expected to be believed in the
future. I recommend that these people read the Aesop Fable about the
Boy Who Cried Wolf for further information. The moral to the fable is
that nobody believes a liar, even when he tells the truth. Tass (Moscow) and Moscow Times (1-Sep-2014) and Telegraph (London) and Aesop: The Boy Who Cried Wolf

****
**** Vladimir Putin praises Donald Trump
****

Donald Trump has repeatedly praised Russia's president Vladimir Putin
on the campaign trail. During his marathon voter call-in, Putin
returned the favor:

<QUOTE>"It is not our business to determine his merits, that
is up to US voters. But he is the absolute leader in the
presidential race. He is a very outstanding person, talented,
without any doubt."<END QUOTE>

So if we apply the rule that Putin never tells the truth except by
accident, then we have to assume that this statement is meaningless
except that Putin wants to do one two things:

• Help Trump get elected.
• Hinder Trump from getting elected.

Does Putin want Trump to be president, or not? We'll have to see what
he says in the future. BBC

****
**** Israel and Turkey reach preliminary deal to normalize relations
****


The Mavi Marmara

Israel and Turkey have reached a proposed agreement to normalize
relations, including the return of ambassadors to both countries,
according to an Israeli official. The agreement was apparently
reached at a secret meeting in Switzerland.

Turkey broke off diplomatic relations with Israel after the deaths of
nine Turkish citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between
Israel's navy and the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza
in violation of Israel's Gaza blockade. Since then, president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has specified three conditions that Israel would have
to fulfill, in order to restore normal relations. First, Israel would
have to apologize, and Israel did so in March 2013, under intense
pressure for president Barack Obama.

Second, Israel would have to pay monetary compensation to the families
of the victims. According to the Israeli report:

<QUOTE>"The two nations agreed on a number of steps: Israel
will found a compensation fund for victims of the raid on the
Marmara; all charges against Israel will be cancelled; the
ambassadors will be returned to work; and high-ranking Hamas
official Saleh al-Arouri will be banned from entering
Turkey."<END QUOTE>

Reports indicate that the compensation fund will contain $20 million,
provided by Israel to Turkey.

Erdogan's third condition was the lifting of the blockade of Gaza.
News reports on the agreement do not mention this condition, and it's
unlikely that any such proposal would be acceptable to either Israel
or Egypt. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and AP

****
**** Turkey announces plans to build a military base in Qatar
****

Turkey has announced that it will build a military base in Qatar, to
help the two countries confront "common enemies." This will be
Turkey's first Middle East military base outside of Turkey itself.
Plans are to station 3,000 ground troops, as well as air and naval
units, military trainers and special operations forces.

More than other Middle East countries, Qatar has had the closest
relationship with Turkey in the past. After the 2014 Gaza war between
Israel and Hamas, there was a major split among the Arab countries,
with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority allied
against Hamas, Qatar and Turkey. ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"
)

That split has largely healed since then, but Qatar and Turkey still
have many common interests not always shared by other Mideast
countries. They both support the Muslim Brotherhood, they both oppose
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, both have condemned
Russia's intervention in Syria, and both have opposed Iran's
increasing influence in the region.

According to Ahmet Demirok, Turkey's ambassador to Qatar:

<QUOTE>"Turkey and Qatar face common problems and we are both
very concerned about developments in the region and uncertain
policies of other countries. We confront common enemies. At this
critical time for the Middle East cooperation between us is
vital."<END QUOTE>

Demirok said that the establishment of the base was a renewal of the
“historic and brotherly ties” between the two countries, referring to
the days of the Ottoman Empire.

Qatar is also home to the largest US air base in the Middle East, Al
Udeid, which serves around 10,000 personnel. Middle East Eye and Al Bawaba and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Turkey,
Syria, Ukraine, Bashar al-Assad, Donald Trump,
Israel, Mavi Marmara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Qatar, Ahmet Demirok

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*** 19-Dec-15 World View -- Taiwan may reverse South China Sea policy and oppose China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan may reverse South China Sea policy and oppose China
• Burundi calls planned African Union peacekeeping force 'an attack'

****
**** Taiwan may reverse South China Sea policy and oppose China
****


Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's likely next president, at a protest against a controversial Taiwan-China trade agreement last march (Getty)

There is one and only one country in the entire world (and China says
that it isn't even a country) that agrees with and supports all of
China’s legal claims in the South China Sea. That country is Taiwan,
though China says that Taiwan isn't a country, but only a rogue
province of China that will return to Chinese control as soon as
possible.

For the last few years, Taiwan has been governed by the pro-China
Kuomintang (KMT) party, which favors the "one China" principle and
unification with mainland China, and which has fully supported all of
China's claims in the South China Sea.

But Taiwan is about to hold new elections on January 16, and the KMT
party is expected to lose to the pro-independence Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP). Of Taiwan's two major political parties,
China has always been very friendly with KMT, and very hostile with
DPP. China has frequently threatened military action if Taiwan's
leaders take any political steps towards independence from China, and
those threats have almost always been directed at the DPP.

From a generational point of view, the supporters of the KMT are
mostly older generations, including the remaining survivors of Mao
Zedong's bloody Communist Revolution civil war that climaxed in 1949.
The supporters of DPP tend to be in the younger generations who have
no personal memories of the Communist Revolution, and who are
increasingly distant from mainland China as the years go by. As the
older generations die off, Taiwan's people are likely to support
independence more and more each year, which could well trigger
a military invasion China.

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues to use
belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has
claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside
of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court
deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP leader and likely next president of Taiwan, has
not specifically said that she would oppose China's claims. In fact,
she has carefully avoided stating what her policy will be with respect
to the South China Sea when she takes office in May, four months after
the election.

However, DPP statements in the past have taken the position that the
South China Sea disputes have to be handled peacefully, according to
international law, namely the United Nations Commission on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) convention. This would require the disputes to be
submitted to the United Nations international court in the Hague,
something that China has bitterly refused to do. Taipei Times and Lawfare Blog and Focus Taiwan and
Taipei Times (27-June-2015)

****
**** Burundi calls planned African Union peacekeeping force 'an attack'
****

The government of Burundi is responding angrily to an African Union
proposal to send 5,000 peacekeepers to Burundi, saying it would be "an
attack" on Burundi.

International officials are becoming increasingly alarmed that Burundi
will see a repeat of the 1994 genocidal war between Hutus and Tutsis
in Burundi and Rwanda that led to the slaughter of almost a million
Tutsis in a three month period. The U.S. special envoy to Africa's
Great Lakes Region, says that in Burundi he could
feel a "palpable sense of fear or concern" on the streets. According
to Perriello:

<QUOTE>"I think you see across the region and across the
world a much greater sense of needing to come together to solve
this thing — that the fears of a civil war are very real, we still
have time to stop it, and the people of Burundi still want to get
back to that decade of progress of post-conflict
reconciliation."<END QUOTE>

The African Union's Peace and Security Council stated that “Africa
will not allow another genocide to take place on its soil."

U.N. human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said on Thursday
“Burundi is at bursting point, on the very cusp of a civil war."

As I've written many times, there is no chance whatsoever of a repeat
of the 1994 war because there are too many survivors of that war, and
they won't allow it to happen. What's happening instead is that
Burundi's president Pierre Nkurunziza, whose announcement last spring
that he would run for an unconstitutional third term triggered the
violence, has been following in the path of Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe
and Syria's Bashar al-Assad by conducting genocidal violence against
his own people in order to stay in power.

The worst violence so far occurred last week in the capital city
Bujumbura, when Nkurunziza's security forces killed over 80 people,
and left their corpses piled in the
streets, to be discovered by ordinary homeowners when they woke up in
the morning and looked out their windows.

It's possible that the proposed African Union 5000 man peacekeeping
force could turn Burundi into another Syria, where external forces
turn a civil war that might otherwise fizzle into an international
proxy war. Nkurunziza's opposition has been calling for a
peacekeeping force, Nkurunziza himself has said any such peacekeeping
force would be an "attack," suggesting he would order his military to
respond, repeating the Syria scenario.

What happened in Syria was that peaceful protests in 2011 were met by
the Bashar al-Assad regime with genocidal attacks on innocent Sunnis,
using heavy weapons obtained from Russia and even Sarin gas. Sunni
jihadists from almost 100 countries around the world poured into Syria
to fight al-Assad, and they ended up forming the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Hutus and Tutsis are almost entirely Christian, so it would seem to be
unlikely that Sunni jihadists would identify with either side in
Burundi. However, it is possible that an al-Qaeda linked or
ISIS-linked terror group might take advantage of the chaos in Burundi
and conduct terror attacks, in the same way that they have in in Paris
or San Bernardino or other places. Foreign Policy and VOA and IRIN (United Nations)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, South China Sea,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party,
Tsai Ing-wen, Mao Zedong, Communist Revolution,
United Nations Commission on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS,
Burundi, Bujumbura, Pierre Nkurunziza, African Regime,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, Thomas Perriello, al-Qaeda,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 20-Dec-15 World View -- Puerto Rico negotiates restructuring after Congress fails to allow Chapter 9 bankruptcy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Puerto Rico negotiates restructuring after Congress fails to allow Chapter 9 bankruptcy
• China's military on high alert when US bombers flew over South China Sea
• Delusional claims made during the Democratic debate

****
**** Puerto Rico negotiates restructuring after Congress fails to allow Chapter 9 bankruptcy
****


Old San Juan, the center for Puerto Rican tourism, on November 12, 2013 (Getty)

Congress has passed the humongous $1.1 trillion spending bill for next
year, and President Obama has signed it. It will completely bust the
sequestration that has kept governing spending down for several years,
and now we can expect that federal deficit to really explode in size
next year. (See "2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge"
)

But one Christmas present left out of the bill was an Obama-favored
proposal to allow Puerto Rico, much of whose economy is close to debt
default, to take advantage of chapter 9 bankruptcy laws. According to
Puerto Rico governor Alejandro García Padilla:

<QUOTE>"By not acting now, Congress has opted for the
U.S. commonwealth to default on its obligations and unfold into
chaos. Once again Wall Street has demonstrated its control over
Congress; Wall Street rules Congress."<END QUOTE>

Puerto Rico faces an enormous $72 billion debt, $900 million of which
it must pay to bondholders on Jan. 1. According to Padilla, Puerto
Rico will default on its debt in January or May.

In many ways, Puerto Rico has gotten a free ride from Congress for
years. Congress granted Puerto Rico investments a "triple-tax free"
tax rate. This means that you can invest in Puerto Rico's bonds and
earn 10% interest every year, and not have to pay federal, state or
municipal tax on the interest you collect. There were other major tax
benefits granted exclusively to those investing in Puerto Rico.

The money that investors paid for these bonds has been essentially
"free money" to Puerto Rico, since nobody apparently believed that it
would ever have to be paid back. As a result, Puerto Rico has felt
free to spend huge amounts of money on social programs, with bills
that are only now coming due.

Detroit defaulted on its debt several years ago, but it didn't really
hurt too many people, because the bankrupt debt was $18 billion, and
few ordinary people owned Detroit bonds, as most investors were
institutions that hedged their purchases with credit default swaps.

A Puerto Rican debt default is likely to be much more widespread. The
triple-tax free 10% interest deal has drawn massive amounts of money
from 401k's and other ordinary investment funds. These funds will all
lose significant principal in a Puerto Rico default.

Almost all Republicans were opposed to giving Puerto Rico retroactive
bankruptcy protective protection, since that would only benefit the
bondholders who took advantage of the triple-tax free 10% deal.
However, House Speaker Paul Ryan promised to come up with a
"responsible solution" by March 31. According to Ryan, "While we
could not agree to include precedent-setting changes to bankruptcy law
in this omnibus spending bill, I understand that many members on both
sides of the aisle remain committed to addressing the challenges
facing the territory."

Foreseeing the likelihood that Puerto Rico would not get debt relief
from Congress, negotiations have been proceeding. On Friday, Puerto
Rico's electric utility reached a tentative agreement with insurance
companies MBIA Inc. and Assured Guaranty Ltd., along with some
bondholders, to restructure the utility's $8.2 billion of debt, This
potentially averts a default on January 1, and raises hopes that there
will be no default in May either. NBC News and The Bond Buyer and Bloomberg

****
**** China's military on high alert when US bombers flew over South China Sea
****

China's military went on high alert two weeks ago on December 10, when
two American B-52 bombers flew into the airspace within two miles of
one of China's artificial man-made islands in the South China Sea.

According to China's Ministry of National Defense on Saturday,

<QUOTE>"Such actions have severely threatened the safety of
Chinese personnel and facilities as well as peace and stability of
the region. ...

The actions by the U.S. side were a serious military provocation,
creating complex conditions in the South China Sea and even
militarization in the region."<END QUOTE>

The Pentagon said Friday that the two bombers flew closer than planned
to Cuateron Reef in the Spratly Islands and that the incident is being
investigated.

The Navy's 7th Fleet, based in Japan, regularly patrols the South
China Sea. According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"We need to remind ourselves that [the] U.S. Navy
... has been conducting freedom of navigation operations since
Jimmy Carter was in office. If you simply acquiesce to somebody
else's claims, you could lose your rights."<END QUOTE>

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."
Xinhua and USA Today and Navy Times

****
**** Delusional claims made during the Democratic debate
****

I watched the Democratic debate on Saturday evening, and want
to comment on a couple of delusional claims that I've written
about many times before.

Delusional claim #1: We should protect Americans by passing
gun control laws.

This is delusional for several reasons:

• Every time gun control is discussed, gun sales surge.
  Gun-maker Smith & Wesson tripled its profits last quarter. Gun
  background checks broke records on Black Friday of this year. There's
  even a new GunTV cable channel debuting on January 16.
  
• Gun control talk stimulates the development of gun manufacturing in your garage with 3D printers
  -
  something that's already pretty sophisticated.
  
• Like it or not, there are already far more guns than people in the
  United States, and that's not going to change.

According to one analyst, "The [number one] driver of firearms sales
is fear-- primarily, fear of registration restrictions, banning and
things like that."

So gun control talk only increases the number of guns being sold
and used.

Delusional claim #2: The 2003 Iraq war was the biggest
foreign policy blunder in American history. Also, according to
Bernie Sanders, it caused the destabilization of the entire Mideast.

As I've written many times, Bernie Sanders and anyone who thinks that
the Iraq war was a mistake should be held accountable for his
willingness to allow Saddam Hussein to kill tens of thousands of
people with weapons of mass destruction.

Saddam had already attacked Iran with WMDs in 1988, so Iran knew that
Saddam would not hesitate to do it again, if given the chance. During
the recent nuclear negotiations, it emerged that Iran had been
developing nuclear weapons for decades, but Supreme Leader Seyed Ali
Khamenei ended that development in October 2003, and that would not
have happened if the Iraq War had not proved that Saddam was no longer
developing nuclear weapons. ( "29-Oct-15 World View -- Iran's government splits over implementation of nuclear deal"
)

So the Iraq war was not only not a blunder, but may have prevented a
nuclear war between Iran and Iraq.

As for destabilizing the Mideast, the Arab Awakening was triggered by
the death of a street vendor in Tunisia, which had nothing to do with
Saddam. And whatever you think about the Libya intervention, it had
nothing to do with Saddam. BBC and PJ Media and Politico (22-Jun-2015)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Puerto Rico, Alejandro García Padilla,
Paul Ryan, MBIA Inc., Assured Guaranty Ltd.,
China, South China Sea, Cuateron Reef, Spratly Islands,
Smith & Wesson, 3D printers, Saddam Hussein, Iraq, Iran,
Tunisia, Libya

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*** 21-Dec-15 World View -- Taliban victories in Helmand put Obama's Afghan withdrawal policy in doubt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Defense Sec'y Carter visits Afghanistan, warns of ISIS and resurgent Taliban
• Taliban victories in Helmand put Obama's Afghan withdrawal policy in doubt
• Obama's 30,000 troop Afghan 'surge' strategy now in seventh year

****
**** Defense Sec'y Carter visits Afghanistan, warns of ISIS and resurgent Taliban
****


Afghanistan's Helmand province is being overrun by Taliban, dealing withdrawal strategy a setback (VOA)

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter paid a surprise visit on Friday to a
remote army base near Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan, and warned of
the threat of deteriorating security in Afghanistan from a resurgent
Taliban and a growing number of fighters allied with the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The warning comes after a year that saw Afghan army and police suffer
more than 5,000 casualties. U.S. commanders estimate that ISIS has
1,000 to 3,000 fighters here, many of whom apparently are former
Taliban members who shifted allegiance.

Carter's remarks reflect a major new Pentagon report on the war in
Afghanistan, which states:

<QUOTE>"In the second half of 2015, the overall security
situation in Afghanistan deteriorated with an increase in
effective insurgent attacks and higher ANDSF [Afghan National
Defense and Security Forces] and Taliban casualties. Though the
insurgency remains resilient, the Afghan government remains in
control of all major population centers and continues to deny the
Taliban strategic ground throughout the country. The Taliban have
remained active in their traditional strongholds, namely in
Helmand in the south and Logar and Wardak in the east, and also
created a sense of instability for brief periods of time in other
parts of the country, such as in Kunduz in northern
Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the Taliban were unable to hold
territory they had wrested away from ANDSF control. The ANDSF
consistently retook ground they had temporarily lost to the
Taliban. Although the ANDSF maintain a significant capability
advantage over the insurgency, insurgents are improving in their
ability to find and exploit ANDSF vulnerabilities, making the
security situation still fragile in key areas and at risk of
deterioration in other places."<END QUOTE>

As stated below, even this assessment is being challenged by the
governor of Helmand province as being far too optimistic, and this may
force a further retrenchment in Obama's withdrawal plan, which has
been repeatedly revise since Obama's original commitment of total
withdrawal in 2014. In the latest version of the withdrawal plan, the
US will maintain its current force of 9,800 in the country through
2016, and after that will leave a force of 5,500 troops in place to
train Afghan forces and conduct counter-terrorism missions. LA Times and DOD Dec 2015 report on Afghanistan (PDF) and Long War Journal

****
**** Taliban victories in Helmand put Obama's Afghan withdrawal policy in doubt
****

The Taliban have been defeating Afghanistan's National Army (ANA),
taking over districts in Helmand province, and appear close to a
victory that will give them control of the entire province. In the
latest victory, on Sunday, Taliban forces have taken control of the
Sangin district, and claim to have surrounded around 150 fleeing ANA
soldiers.

During a Taliban assault on Sangin in November, more than 60 Afghan
soldiers were killed while another 70 defected to the insurgency. The
crucial district had been one of the deadliest places in Afghanistan
for NATO troops who fought for years to secure the volatile poppy
growing region.

Sunday's Taliban victory came after a desperate plea appeared on the
Facebook page of Deputy Governor Mohammad Jan Rasulyar, writing to
Afghanistan's president, Ashraf Ghani. Rasulyar said that he knew of
no other way to contact the government in Kabul, and wrote:

<QUOTE>"Your Excellency, Helmand is standing on the brink and
there is a serious need for you to come. Be quick and act on
this! Please save Helmand from tragedy. Ignore those liars who
are telling you that Helmand is secure. ...

Helmand will collapse to the enemies and it's not like Kunduz,
where we could launch an operation from the airport to retake
it. That is just impossible and a dream."<END QUOTE>

The reference to Kunduz indicates that the situation is similar to the
situation that led up to the fall of the northern city of Kunduz in
late September, when Taliban fighters seized and held on to for
several days before government troops regained control. ( "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia"
)

The desperate plea highlights the dangers faced by the Afghan
government as the US-led coalition withdraws from the country. The
Ghani government has been claiming that the Afghan security forces
have been controlling the insurgency, but a series of Taliban
victories have put that claim in doubt.

In fact, there have been unconfirmed reports in the last week that the
US has once again been committing troops to Helmand, and that there
are more American troops fighting there than at any time since
President Obama last year announced a formal end to combat operations
in Afghanistan. According to the NY Times:

<QUOTE>"The extent of the American role has been kept largely
secret, with senior Afghan officials in the area saying they are
under orders not to divulge the level of cooperation, especially
by Special Operations forces on the ground. The secrecy reflects
the Pentagon’s concern that the involvement may suggest that the
American combat role, which was supposed to have ended in December
2014, is still far beyond the official “train, advise and assist”
mission."<END QUOTE>

This is the latest in a series of escalations that have forced the
Obama administration to repeated renege on its commitment to remove
American forces by the end of 2014. VOA and Reuters and Independent (London) and NY Times

****
**** Obama's 30,000 troop Afghan 'surge' strategy now in seventh year
****

In fact, it was just six years ago this month that President Obama
gave a speech at West Point announcing the troop "surge" in
Afghanistan:

<QUOTE>"As cadets, you volunteered for service during this
time of danger. Some of you fought in Afghanistan. Some of you
will deploy there. As your Commander-in-Chief, I owe you a
mission that is clearly defined, and worthy of your service. And
that's why, after the Afghan voting was completed, I insisted on a
thorough review of our strategy. Now, let me be clear: There has
never been an option before me that called for troop deployments
before 2010, so there has been no delay or denial of resources
necessary for the conduct of the war during this review period.
Instead, the review has allowed me to ask the hard questions, and
to explore all the different options, along with my national
security team, our military and civilian leadership in
Afghanistan, and our key partners. And given the stakes involved,
I owed the American people -- and our troops -- no less.

This review is now complete. And as Commander-in-Chief, I have
determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an
additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months,
our troops will begin to come home. These are the resources that
we need to seize the initiative, while building the Afghan
capacity that can allow for a responsible transition of our forces
out of Afghanistan."<END QUOTE>

That was in December 2009, the same month that Obama went to Oslo to
accept his Nobel peace prize, and then went on to Copenhagen to give a
speech to a farcical climate change conference.

The West Point speech was sharply criticized on both the left and the
right as I wrote at the time. ( "People are shocked! shocked! at Obama's war plan in Afghanistan."
) People on the left criticized it because it was
another escalation of the Afghan war. People on the right criticized
it because of the 18-month deadline.

Indeed, people on the right have been bitterly criticizing Obama's
strategy from the day it was announced. By giving an 18-month
deadline, Obama was giving the enemy a huge strategic advantage, since
they could plan their military campaign based on Obama's unilateral
withdrawal announcement. And Obama has been repeatedly criticized for
ignoring and overriding the recommendations of his own army generals,
even though Obama has no clue what's happening in Afghanistan.

Obama has had to repeatedly extend the 18-month deadline, which is a
surprise to no one. Now that Obama is being forced to send additional
troops back into Helmand province now, six years later, it's clear
that the critics were right, and the 18-month deadline was a disaster.

A worse irony is that President Obama's Afghan war strategy is modeled
after President Bush's "surge" strategy in Iraq, something that
Senator Obama bitterly opposed before it turned out to be successful.
However, I wrote a detailed comparison of the Afghanistan versus Iraq
wars in mid-2009 in "American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war,"
,
showing that the Iraq "surge" strategy could not work in Afghanistan.

As I described at length in that article, there are important
differences between Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq's previous
generational crisis war was and external war, the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, where Sunni and Shia populations were united to defeat the
Iranian enemy.

The situation in Afghanistan was always very different. Afghanistan's
last generational crisis war was the very bloody 1991-96 civil war
between different Afghan ethnic groups. The Sunni Muslim Pashtuns in
the south fought against what later became known as the "Northern
Alliance" -- Shia Muslim Hazaras, as well as Tajiks, Uzbeks and other
ethnic groups in the north. Iraq has a long history in generational
crisis wars of uniting against a common external enemy, while
Afghanistan has a long history of internal generational crisis civil
wars of fighting each other.

An even worse difference is that Afghanistan is right next door to
Pakistan, which is in a generational crisis era. As I pointed out at
the time, ethnic Pashtun Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan would
cooperate with each other, and that's what happened, as Taliban forces
in Afghanistan conduct attacks and then flee across the border, where
they're safe from Afghan government forces. No such similar situation
existed in the Iraq "surge," as I described in my 2007 article,
"Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq". Obama's surge strategy is failing for
precisely the reasons that I detailed in 2009, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis. White House (1-Dec-2009) and CS Monitor (2-Dec-2009) and CNN (22-Jun-2011)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Helmand, Sangin, Ash Carter,
Mohammad Jan Rasulyar, Ashraf Ghani, Kunduz, Taliban,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iraq, Pakistan, Pashtuns

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Interesting link regarding 3D printing. The 1911 is noted for reliability and stopping power.

Awhile back on another thread I commented on the different ways to circumvent gun control:

1. One web site had instructions on how to make STEN guns at home using old style equipment.

(I even came across plans online for making guns out of plumbing fixtures, but I don't know how workable these items would be).


2. One web site indicated that there is a black market in the USA, selling the AK-47.


3. Came across a web site regarding hiding guns.

*** 22-Dec-15 World View -- Russia's Syria airstrikes kill many innocent civilians, but otherwise appear futile

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Syria airstrikes kill many innocent civilians, but otherwise appear futile
• European Union renews its sanctions against Russia for Ukraine invasion
• Russia retaliates against Ukraine by banning food imports
• Azerbaijan's currency devalues 32%, following Russia and Kazakhstan

****
**** Russia's Syria airstrikes kill many innocent civilians, but otherwise appear futile
****


Idlib devastation, after Russian warplane bombing on Sunday (Reuters)

When peaceful anti-government demonstrations began in Syria in 2011,
Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad responded with a genocidal
series of airstrikes on innocent Sunni civilians, using heavy weapons
supplied by Russia. This resulted in a worldwide movement of young
Sunni jihadists from almost 100 countries, traveling to Syria to fight
al-Assad. This resulted in the creation of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), which is still benefiting from a
large influx of jihadist volunteers from around the world.

Now Russia is directly taking part in the war, and is substantially
increasing the massacres of innocent Sunni civilians. Russia's
warplanes have added a new layer of carnage, reportedly killing at
least 600 Syrian citizens, including 70 in Idlib on Sunday. In
Syria’s north and in opposition-held parts of the cities of Hama and
Damascus, the destruction wrought on civilian infrastructure and
population centers over recently is more intense than at any point in
almost five years of war.

Human Rights Watch is reporting that Russia's massive extermination
bombings have extensively used cluster bombs, whose use is considered
a war crime. A cluster bomb contains dozens or hundreds of bomblets
and are fired in rockets or dropped from the air. The munitions are
capable of killing even long after the initial attack, especially when
unexploded bomblets detonate. They aren't militarily effective, but
they cause many civilian casualties, including many women and
children.

However, as the US has learned in Iraq and Syria and Saudi Arabia is
learning in Yemen, airstrikes alone are not enough to win a war
without ground troops. Now Russia is learning the same lesson, as
reports indicate that Russia's massive airstrikes are accomplishing
little beyond the slaughter of innocent civilians.

When Russia began its airstrikes 12 weeks ago, Syria's army was
supposed to supply the ground troops that would make the airstrikes
effective. But as we reported earlier this year,
Syria's army was nearing a complete collapse,
which is one of the factors that led Russia to intervene. Syria had
been losing one city after another, as massive desertions had crippled
al-Assad's army.

The al-Assad regime is now in a desperate program to conscript new
people into the army. A man from Damascus is quoted as saying that
four of his friends were taken from their homes to an army base in the
city early last week. “There are trucks driving around with
loudspeakers ordering men and boys to join,” he said.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that Syria is now in total
chaos. The American-led coalition has mostly evacuated Syria since
Russia intervened, but there are still many groups participating in
the war -- Russia, the Kurdish YPG militia, most of the important
rebel groups, including radical Sunni organizations tied to Al Qaeda,
such as the Nusra Front and Ahram al-Sham, Iran and Shiite Hezbollah,
and ISIS. Guardian (London) and ARA News (Syria) and Debka (Israel)

****
**** European Union renews its sanctions against Russia for Ukraine invasion
****

Despite internal divisions among the European Union members, the
European Council of all 28 EU member states renewed for six more
months the sanctions against Russia that were set to expire later
this month.

The sanctions had been imposed last year, after the Russians invaded
and occupied east Ukraine, annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and
later shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 with a missile.

Many Europeans are still shocked by Russia's actions, because they
have historical memories of European leaders appeasing Hitler and the
Nazis with the Munich Pact ("peace in our time"), after Adolf Hitler's
Nazi army had invaded, occupied and annexed a portion of Austria (the
Anschluss) on March 12, 1938.

There was internal dissension among EU nations over renewing
sanctions, especially from Italy, which has traditionally close times
with Russia, which criticized Germany for having an energy deal with
Russia, while other EU countries were being asked to sacrifice their
national interests. France and Bulgaria had similar objections.

The sanctions renewal comes after the end of a year in which it seemed
that the EU was facing one existential crisis after another, including
Greece's financial crisis and the massive refugee crisis. AFP and Washington Post

****
**** Russia retaliates against Ukraine by banning food imports
****

Russia's Foreign Ministry called the extension "illogical," and added:
"Instead of building constructive cooperation in countering the key
challenges of our time, such as international terrorism, EU
authorities in Brussels prefer to continue to play the short-sighted
sanctions game."

Russian also then played the "short-signed sanctions game" by
immediately retaliating against Ukraine and announcing a ban on
imported Ukrainian food, effective January 1. Ukraine has signed a
free trade agreement with the EU, set to take effect on January 1, and
Russia claims that if Ukrainian food were freely allowed into Russia,
then Ukrainian distributors would simply purchase EU food via the free
trade agreement, and then relabel it and export it to Russia.

One reason that Ukraine is going ahead with its free trade agreement
with the EU is because of what happened when the previous Ukrainian
government did exactly that, late in 2013. ( "3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation"
)

At that time, at least 100,000 anti-government protesters packed
Independence Square ("the Maidan") in Kiev on a single Sunday,
demanding the resignation of then-president Viktor Yanukovich. More
than 200 people were hurt when police used tear gas and flash
grenades, after some marchers tried to storm a government building.
Video has emerged showing police brutally beating protesters and
journalists with clubs. The riots continued through the night and
into Monday evening, forcing riot police to line up to protect the
office of the president.

The riots were triggered when Yanukovich did a highly visible
flip-flop on signing a trade agreement with the European Union,
evidently because of pressure by Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
So this time, the current government is not going to do a similar
flip-flop. Russia Today and BBC and Tass (Moscow) and Politico (EU)

****
**** Azerbaijan's currency devalues 32%, following Russia and Kazakhstan
****

Until Monday, Azerbaijan's currency the manat pegged at a fixed rate
against the US dollar. But the dollar has been getting stronger and
stronger on foreign exchange (FX) markets, while the price of one of
Azerbaijan's chief exports, oil, keeps plunging to new lows. The
result is that Azerbaijan has lost over half of its foreign currency
reserves. A year ago, Azerbaijan had $14.9 billion US dollars, but
the reserves are now at $6.2 billion, a "critical level." Oil and gas
account for 95 percent of Azeri exports and 75 percent of government
revenues.

The result is that the manat currency has now fallen 32% against the
dollar. This means, for example, that any imported goods denominated
in U.S. dollars will be much more expensive. Something previous
costing $100 will now cost $147 (=$100/(1-.32)). However,
Azerbaijan's exports are now 32% cheaper on world markets,
making the country's products more competitive.

As we wrote earlier this month in "7-Dec-15 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
, Azerbaijan has been facing both Shia and
Sunni jihadist insurgencies, largely among population groups at the
worst poverty levels. With prices of many goods now increasing by
almost 50%, which is almost a "hyperinflation" rate, this currency
devaluation is going to further destabilize the country.

Kazakhstan scrapped its currency peg for the tenge against the dollar
in August, and Russia has devalued its ruble several times, because of
the oil price plunge and the international sanctions.

What everyone is watching for is what Saudi Arabia will do. The Saudi
government needs oil prices of $90 per barrel to balance its budget,
and no one expects prices like that again for a long time. However,
the Saudis have plenty of foreign exchange reserves, thanks to
previous years of high oil prices, and would not be forced to abandon
its dollar peg for four years, according to estimates. Reuters and The Street


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
cluster bombs, European Union, Ukraine, Crimea, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17,
Hitler, Nazis, Munich Pact, Austria, Maidan, Viktor Yanukovich,
Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia

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*** 23-Dec-15 World View -- UK bitterly sends troops back Afghanistan's Helmand province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UK bitterly sends troops back Afghanistan's Helmand province
• Number of migrants entering Europe this year passes the one million mark

****
**** UK bitterly sends troops back Afghanistan's Helmand province
****


Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers in Helmand on Monday (AFP)

As we wrote two days ago, Taliban forces in Afghanistan are scoring victory after victory in Helmand province.
Some reports indicate that the crucial city of Sangin has
been captured, and that all of Helmand province is in danger of
falling.

To bolster desperate Afghan government forces, Britain said on Tuesday
that it was sending some forces back to Helmand province. A unit of
about 30 soldiers from Britain's elite Special Air Service (SAS) and
up to 60 U.S. special forces have been sent to bolster the Afghan
forces to defend the town, but the Ministry of Defense (MoD) said that
they were not sent there to fight, but only to advise.

Britain ended combat operations in Afghanistan last year, but before
then it was British troops that were mainly fighting the Taliban in
Helmand. Sangin became known as “the most dangerous place in Helmand”
because of the ferocity of attacks that claimed the lives of 106
British service personnel. The body count rose as the first UK units
endured the most intense ground fighting since the Korean war,
fighting for control of a district that was a major prize for Taliban
fighters because of its lucrative opium trade.

Many UK mothers are now expressing concern that everything that the
British troops fought and died for was for nothing.

The BBC interviewed a mother of a soldier who lost both his legs while
serving in Afghanistan, and who was asked how she felt about the
decision to send troops back to Helmand:

<QUOTE>"Sadness, anger, but most of all a desperate,
desperate sense of waste and fear that we are still not learning
the lessons and that it's British troops that are going to pay the
price for that failure to learn.'

[The lessons learned are] that you don't get yourself involved in
an under-funded, under-defined, under-supported war in an isolated
position, that these issues have got to be global and that there
has got to be support from the Muslim world, throughout the world,
and that we cannot - we don't have the resources to - take on
these issues by ourselves."<END QUOTE>

Besides its importance for its lush opium trade, it's also a major
transit point and close to a major highway that cuts across Helmand.
If the Taliban take control of Sangin, then will the Afghans will be
unable to resupply its forces in southern Helmand. Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London) and Reuters

****
**** Number of migrants entering Europe this year passes the one million mark
****

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM),
1,005,504 migrants have entered Europe this year as of December 21,
and they're still arriving at the rate of 4000-5000 per day.

According to the IOM, the numbers by country of entry are as follows:

Code:

Country      Total      Sea    Land
-------- ---------  -------   -----
Greece     821,008  816,752   4,256
Bulgaria    29,959   29,959
Italy      150,317  150,317  
Spain        3,845    3,845   
Malta          106      106 
Cyprus         269      269 
TOTAL    1,005,504  971,289   34,215

The total of migrant/refugee deaths now stands at 3,692.

Over half of the migrants were refugees escaping the war in Syria.

Germany, the most economically powerful country in the European Union,
has led the way in extending a welcome to migrants, and is expecting
to take in a million asylum-seekers.

At the other end of the spectrum is Hungary, led by prime minister
Viktor Orbán, who has become increasingly popular since his right-wing
Fidesz party government has been conducting anti-migrant media
campaigns against the flood of migrants. According to Orbán:

<QUOTE>"Mass migration is threatening the security of
Europeans, because it brings with it an exponentially increased
threat of terrorism. ...

We know nothing about these people: where they really come from,
who they are, what their intentions are, whether they have
received any training, whether they have weapons, or whether they
are members of any organization. Furthermore, mass migration also
increases crime rates."<END QUOTE>

Syria's neighbors are bearing most of the burden of flood of Syrian
refugees. Turkey is hosting 2.5 million, Lebanon and Jordan are each
hosting more than a million. International Organization for Migration (IOM) and BBC and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Helmand, Sangin, Taliban,
International Organization for Migration, IOM,
Germany, Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Fidesz, Lebanon, Jordan

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*** 24-Dec-15 World View -- Paralyzed Lebanon decides to export its garbage to Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Paralyzed Lebanon decides to export its garbage to Europe
• Syrian refugees in Lebanon increasingly face starvation

****
**** Paralyzed Lebanon decides to export its garbage to Europe
****


A man covers his nose from the smell of the garbage in a Beirut street (AP)

Lebanon's government approved a decree on Monday to export the garbage
generated by the citizens of Beirut and Mount Lebanon to Europe. This
would include much of the trash that has accumulated around the
capital region, last estimated in November to exceed 100,000 tons.

There will be two firms under contract: Howa BV, of Holland and
Chinook Urban Mining International of Britain. It has not yet been
announced where the garbage will be dumped after it leaves Lebanon.
The two European firms will charge Lebanon $212 per ton to remove the
garbage, about $60 per ton more than Lebanon used to pay the Lebanon's
garbage contractor, Sukleen.

The garbage crisis began on July 17 when Lebanon's dysfunctional
government simply closed Beirut's main landfill, without providing any
alternative. With no place to go, residents simply piled the garbage
in the streets. The smell has become increasingly putrid. Every time
it rains, streams of garbage flow down the streets. One video that
went viral showed uncollected garbage being swept down a flooded
street in Beirut. The filth is seeping into the drinking water, and
dysentery is feared.

Lebanon's government became officially paralyzed and dysfunctional on
May 24, 2014, when Lebanon's last president, Michel Sulaiman, ended a
six year term, and officials were unable to select a successor
president. Hezbollah and various political coalitions continually
boycotted meetings and sabotaged processes, rather than risk have an
opposing party or coalition win the presidency. There is still a
cabinet, and the ministers in the cabinet are empowered to make some
decisions, but that's largely dysfunctional as well.

By August, tens of thousands of demonstrators were filling the streets
of Beirut in the new "You Stink" campaign, where the protesters were
using the epithet to describe both the garbage and the government.
That led to violence, as Lebanon's security forces fired weapons,
sprayed tear gas and water cannons, and arrested dozens of protesters.

Out of desperation, the cabinet did finally reach a decision on Monday
to contract to the two European firms to haul the garbage away.

One politician patted himself on the back:

<QUOTE>"The Cabinet has turned a new page today and lifted a
great weight off the backs of the people."<END QUOTE>

However, another politician was more direct:

<QUOTE>"We’ve gotten to the point where we’ll agree to
anything. We have no choice but to finish with this garbage,
exports or otherwise."<END QUOTE>

However, the crisis is far from over. Exporting trash is governed by
the United Nations Basel Convention which requires exporters to
declare the hazardous content of their waste, something that Lebanon
may not even be capable of. Another problem is that no decision has
been made as to where the money will come from to pay the garbage
export contractors. So even in the rosiest scenario, garbage exports
won't begin for weeks or months.

And Lebanon still has no president. Daily Star (Beirut) and Gulf News (Dubai) and Daily Star (Beirut) and The National (Dubai)

****
**** Syrian refugees in Lebanon increasingly face starvation
****

Lebanon, with a population of less than 5 million people, is hosting
more than one million refugees from Syria. International
contributions to aid the refugees have been dwindling, and food
insecurity is mounting. In 2014, 49% of the refugees were below the
poverty line of $3.84 per day, but now some 70% are below the poverty
line, according to the United Nations.

According to the UN report:

<QUOTE>"With the Syrian conflict now in its fifth year, the
refugees face severe restrictions on accessing the Lebanese labor
market, their assets and savings are increasingly exhausted, their
debts are mounting and they must fulfil specific requirements to
legalize their stay in Lebanon."<END QUOTE>

With refugees generally forbidden by law to take jobs in Lebanon, some
refugees are making money on the side by growing and selling cannabis.
According to one landown and grower of cannabis: "Any job in Lebanon
makes you $700 per month, but working with drugs can get you $10,000 a
day." United Nations and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Howa BV,
Chinook Urban Mining International, Michel Sulaiman,
You Stink, Syria

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*** 25-Dec-15 World View -- Israel and Hezbollah may be close to war again

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanza, Belated Happy Hanukkah, Ramadan, Winter Solstice!
• Hezbollah promises revenge for deadly Israeli airstrike in Syria
• Israel and Hezbollah may be close to war again
• Russia is sharing information with the Taliban in Afghanistan to fight ISIS

****
**** Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanza, Belated Happy Hanukkah, Ramadan, Winter Solstice!
****


Merry Christmas!

****
**** Hezbollah promises revenge for deadly Israeli airstrike in Syria
****

Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah leader promised revenge
against Israel, "and we will pick the time, place and manner to do
so," in retaliation for Israel's assassination of Samir Kuntar, a
former Hezbollah commander. Kuntar was killed on Sunday in an Israeli
airstrike on a residential building in the suburbs near Damascus, the
capital city of Syria.

The airstrike represented a fairly significant achievement, in view of
the intelligence required to identify the safehouse where Kuntar was
located, and to coordinate the airstrike with Russia, which controls
the air space over Damascus. We wrote about this coordination earlier
this month ( "6-Dec-15 World View -- Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation"
), and there is increasing evidence that Russia
and Israel are sharing intelligence. Israel has allegedly conducted
other airstrikes in Syria, usually targeting convoys delivering
Iranian weapons to Hezbollah.

Nasrallah has suggested that revenge would take the form of another
war against the Zionist entity, but a war at this time may not be
possible.

First, Hezbollah is still heavily engaged in Syria, where some 1,300
to 1,500 of its fighters have been killed in battle, and about 5,000
injured. In July, Israel Radio reported that Hezbollah had arrested
175 of its own fighters after they refused to take part in battles in
the Syrian city of Zabadani, close to the border with Lebanon. So
Hezbollah may simply not have the manpower at this time to even
attempt a new war with Israel.

Second, Israel's airstrikes in Syria bombing Hezbollah and Iranian
targets, and they have been met with the approval, or at least the
tacit approval, of Russia. This suggests that any Hezbollah war with
Israel will not be supported by Russia, and may even be opposed by
Israel and Russia as allies. Russia is in Syria for Russia, not for
Iran and not for Hezbollah. In fact, Iran is actually losing
territory in Syria that it thought it had gained. The Russia-Israel
coordination of Israel's strikes at Iran-Hezbollah targets must be a
bitter blow to Nasrallah.

However, all-out war is not Nasrallah's only choice. The revenge
could take the form of terrorist attacks or border attacks. In fact,
shortly after the Israeli airstrike killing Kuntar, three rockets were
fired from southern Lebanon towards Israel. Israel retaliated with
some eight rounds of 120mm mortar, but no casualties were reported
from either side.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon voiced great concern
today over Monday's firing of rockets from South Lebanon towards
Israel, calling it “a serious violation” of the ceasefire. He noted
Israel’s retaliatory mortar attack, and urged maximum restraint.

Whatever form Nasrallah's revenge may take, Israel's military is
warning Nasrallah that Nasrallah and Hezbollah would be making a big
mistake if they perpetrated a lethal terror attack in an attempt to
avenge Kuntar's assassination, and they promised a "disproportionate
response" to any Hezbollah attacks. CNN and Times of Israel and Lebanon Now and YNet (Israel) and United Nations

****
**** Israel and Hezbollah may be close to war again
****

Ever since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah ended, things
have been pretty quiet between the two.

In fact, the 2006 war was pretty much a surprise to both sides and a
disaster for both sides.

The war was triggered when two Israeli soldiers were ambushed and
kidnapped while on patrol near the border with Lebanon. Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war with Hezbollah within four hours,
with no plan, no objective,
and no idea what was going on. The Israelis then blundered from one
objective to the next, until the war finally ended.

Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said after the war that he
had underestimated Israel's response to the ambush. Many Lebanese
people blame Hezbollah for causing the war, which resulted in huge
destruction to much of Lebanon's infrastructure, and Nasrallah
apologized to the Lebanese people. Lebanon was split between those
favoring Israel and those favoring Hezbollah, but no matter which side
they were on, they didn't want anything like it to happen again.

It's now been almost ten years since then, and there have been plenty
of "lessons learned" on both sides. Both sides have much more
advanced weaponry, and both sides will be much more militarily
aggressive.

In 2006, Hezbollah was launching a little more than 100 rockets a day
into Israel, and mostly into neighborhoods in northern Israel. Since
then, Iran has supplied Hezbollah with a huge stockpile of much more
accurate and powerful rockets that can reach all the way into southern
Israel, including airfields, headquarters, and economically important
sites. In addition, Hezbollah will use the same kinds of tunnels and
deep weapons stores that Hamas used effectively in the 2014 Gaza war.

In 2006, Israel considered itself to be at war with Hezbollah, and
targeted Hezbollah infrastructure and assets in its airstrikes. In a
new war, Israel will be at war not just with Hezbollah, but with all
of Lebanon. According to one analysis, the internationally community
will turn against Israel very quickly, as it always does, and so
Israel must attack the Lebanese army and the infrastructure of
Lebanon, including the airports and seaports, and destroy as much as
possible within a few days.

Most analysts believe that there will be another war between Israel
and Hezbollah, with certainly. However, this time it will not be a
surprise. It will be well planned by both sides, and a lot deadlier
and more destructive than last time. YNet (Israel) and Washington Institute (29-Jan-2015)

****
**** Russia is sharing information with the Taliban in Afghanistan to fight ISIS
****

Zamir Kabulov, a Foreign Ministry department head and President
Vladimir Putin's special representative for Afghanistan, says that
Russia and the Taliban are sharing information in the fight against
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). According
to Kabulov:

<QUOTE>"The Taliban interest objectively coincides with ours
in the fight against ISIS in Afghanistan. I have already said
earlier that we and the Taliban have channels for exchanging
information."<END QUOTE>

Russia has also been reported to be supplying weapons to the Afghan
government as well as to India. Russia appears to be extending itself
substantially. Washington Post

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Samir Kuntar, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ban Ki-moon,
Russia, Taliban, Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov

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Boomers are governing tyrannically by refusing to amend our system to permit snap elections. Boomers are governing tyrannically by the constant attacks by the republicans and democratic establishments and by the Obama administration against Donald Trump and his suggestions of what needs to be done to turn this country around. Tyrannical boomers implement military and political commitments in eastern Europe and the western pacific without having received a mass consent from the populace first; thus violating the populace's rights. The last three administrations have all initiated military actions without congressional approval. Obama approves Syrian refugees to enter the country without having been granted permission to do so by the people or from congress. Boomer neoliberals and neocons refuse to permit political reform to remove the constitutional shackles and electoral college shackles from the political system. Trump is the only candidate advocating fundamental reform and the beltway establishment collectively hate him for it. Now Obama, Jeb Bush and Clinton are calling Donald trump's views "un-American". If Selfish boomers love the constitution so much, they should govern within its bounds. But oh wait, if boomers needed to ask the people for permission to implement their ideological preferences those policy options would never get implemented because the people would have said no. Boomers are tyrannical especially because of their determination to continue America's 20th century persona of a country that "always defends the little guy and stands up for the downtrodden" through the Crisis era, no matter if it increases risks to the nation, boomers don't care as long as we are "always the good guys".

Trump is going to get Hillary elected. Which is probably just as well
because Hillary at least knows what's going on in the world, while
Trump doesn't have a clue.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Trump is going to get Hillary elected. Which is probably just as well
because Hillary at least knows what's going on in the world, while
Trump doesn't have a clue.

Trump is the only candidate that mentions our policies toward both Russia and China. He is also the only candidate that mentions strategic military reform and reorganization. The establishment hates this because they believe in the notion of Americans when they go to war should be fighting and sacrificing for "what is right" rather than to fight to attempt to gain spoils. Xers and Millies consider that notions mentioned in the previous sentence to be something only an idiot would do. They prefer if one has to fight to "fight to take" not be fighting so that someone else would be free with no national benefit for their efforts. Hillary is a walking personification of everything Xers and Millies hate about the current political order, "keep the borders open all the time" "keep the tolerance for foreigners and internal dependents on all the time" "keep the military defense/retaliation based rather than stockpile first-strike weapons".

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Trump is the only candidate that mentions our policies toward both Russia and China. He is also the only candidate that mentions strategic military reform and reorganization. The establishment hates this because they believe in the notion of Americans when they go to war should be fighting and sacrificing for "what is right" rather than to fight to attempt to gain spoils. Xers and Millies consider that notions mentioned in the previous sentence to be something only an idiot would do. They prefer if one has to fight to "fight to take" not be fighting so that someone else would be free with no national benefit for their efforts. Hillary is a walking personification of everything Xers and Millies hate about the current political order, "keep the borders open all the time" "keep the tolerance for foreigners and internal dependents on all the time" "keep the military defense/retaliation based rather than stockpile first-strike weapons".

Trump is going to get Hillary elected. Which is probably just as well
because Hillary at least knows what's going on in the world, while
Trump doesn't have a clue.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Trump is going to get Hillary elected. Which is probably just as well
because Hillary at least knows what's going on in the world, while
Trump doesn't have a clue.

Tyrannical boomers won't give up power or allow a strong government to exercise political and military control. Look at the typical establishment boomer candidate Jeb Bush, who wants to double down on admitting Syrian refugees. Keep up Confrontation with both Russia and China despite the modernization of both countries militaries over the past 20 years. Compare how our boomer leaders celebrate America with how Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North korea, Most Asian countries, Iran, and Most of the Arab world, and the USSR before it collapsed celebrated their countries. In those countries you routinely see large-scale parades of military equipment and up to date missiles with the leader saying some chest-thumping statement and generals waving batons while heavily armed soldiers stand in attention. We don't have that here because tyrannical boomers shove money-grubbing ideology down our throats saying that the purpose of life is to accumulate wealth. Boomers saw the potential of Xers and millies decades ago, and decided to tyrannically suppress them so that the country would continue in the direction of a wealth based and feelings based society. Even though doing so violated first Xers and the Millies rights. Xers and Millies can clearly see the patheticness of the current generations of leaders and see the competent governance in their national rivals, Russia and China, now the boomer elite wants to end any possibility of reform by shoving Bush and Hillary down our throats. What's with the boomer love affair with weaklings? Trump is advocating a completely different form of government that what has traditionally existed in this country.

President Hillary - "knows what is going on in the world" = Lets continue outsourcing our industry so that the third world benefits and not America. Lets continue confrontation with Russia and china and fight a likely nuclear war that benefits the small countries adjacent to Russia and China but would entail only losses for the US. Force millies to fight not for national glory but for "world peace" a pathetic weakling ideology that Millies simply don't believe in. Have Jeb bush be our leader so Americans would avoid inflicting collateral damage even when the other side does not. Establishment orthodoxy - we should always be the "good guys" even if it imposes higher risks for our forces and people. The establishment routinely violates Xers and Millies right to consent. Selfish boomers refuse to aknowledge that constitutional rights aren't conditional for the populace accepting "human rights", the people's rights are unconditional meaning that the government must respect their right to influence decision making even if the dominant views of the people are hostile to "human rights" in general or to the rights of marginalized groups; the government can't just shut out the people just because the people believe in things the elite thinks is wrong. That's what Xers in particular mean when they say boomers are tyrannical.

The boomers selfishness and hatred for hierarchy and their hostility to the very idea that we should be ruled by the naturally superior is costing us dearly. We should be a Germany or a Russia or a pre-1870 france. Not a Britain, Post-1870 france or a Poland.

*** 26-Dec-15 World View -- 'The Big Short' - an infuriating movie about the financial crisis


The Big Short

I saw the movie "The Big Short" yesterday (Christmas), and found
myself becoming increasingly upset and infuriated as it went along.

The movie is a description of the financial crisis, based on Michael
Lewis's bestselling book "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine."

The main characters are money managers Michael Burry (Christian Bale)
and Mark Baum (Steve Carell), who foresaw the crisis and found ways to
make over a billion dollars profit from it. They foresaw that the
housing market and the supporting subprime mortgages were going to
crash, and they found a way, using credit default swaps, to bet that
the housing market would crash, and they won.

Along with them is a supporting cast of stupid, sleazy bankers and
real estate brokers who sold subprime mortgages, created the
fraudulent subprime mortgaged backed synthetic securities, and
defrauded investors.

In many ways the movie is a comedy because the material is presented
in a clever way. For example, the movie might cut to a girl taking a
bubble bath who looks into the camera and describes a type of
investment; or to a chef who chops up three-day-old fish (representing
rancid investments) and throws them into a pot to make fish stew
(representing collateralized debt obligations or CDOs). A lot of the
movie takes place in Las Vegas, so there are a lot of pretty
semi-dressed girls as backdrop. The purpose was to make this
super-dry financial stuff interesting enough to make it interesting to
the audience. Those who see the movie and want to understand the
mathematics behind CDOs and credit default swaps can read my January
2008 article, "A primer on financial engineering and structured finance".

In the movie, Baum spoke to mortgage consultants who bragged about
selling huge subprime mortgages to people with no jobs, no income, and
absolutely no chance of meeting the mortgage payments. The bank lends
the money for the interest-only mortgage and the banker gets a huge
commission; the mortgage consultant gets a huge commission; the
mortgagor gets to move into his new house, and will stay there until
the interest-only period ends, and then he gets evicted and screwed.
The total immorality of the mortgage consultants and bankers, bragging
how they screwed people, is clear.

Baum visited a stripper who had gotten a mortgage through the
consultants. He had to pay her fee for an hour of her time in order
to interview her. He told her that her mortgage payment would soon
double or triple. After learning that, she was no longer pretty.

Baum went to Florida and found developments with hundreds of houses,
almost all abandoned because the owners had been foreclosed. The few
people left looked like they were staring death in the face.

Baum also visited a money manager who had merged thousands of faulty
subprime mortgages, knowing that they would default, and created the
CDOs and CDOs-squared other fraudulent securities that he sold to
investors as AAA investments.

Baum visited someone at the S&P Rating Service to ask why the
synthetic bonds were still rated AAA, even after large numbers of
subprime mortgages had gone into default. He was told that the banks
had paid them to give them the AAA rating, and that if they refused,
the bank would go to Moody's, a competitor. In other words, the S&P
Rating Service did not actually rate the fraudulent bonds; they simply
gave an AAA rating because they were paid by the bank to do so.

I saw all this stuff going on and I became angrier and angrier. As
long-time readers know, I've been writing about the housing bubble
since 2004, and how it was going to cause a financial crisis. (From
July 2004: "Real estate is in an overpriced bubble all over the world"
) I've been angry for
years about what was going on, and what this movie did is bring back
all that upset and anger in one huge clump. (Don't worry. I didn't
go ballistic, but fumed in silence.)

And there were so many levels on which this movie infuriated me.

First, this movie was full of crooks, some of whom made thousands and
other who made hundreds of millions -- on the backs of families who
lost their homes and jobs and went bankrupt. But now, in 2015, not
one goddam one of them has even been prosecuted and sent to jail.

The Obama Justice Department has adamantly refused to prosecute
anyone, because they all used a portion of their fraudulently obtained
millions to make large contributions to the Obama campaign or projects
sponsored by Obama. Not one single person has been prosecuted.
They're all in the same jobs, able to find new ways to defraud people
-- as we've seen in the Libor and Forex scandals -- and continue to
pay off the Washington politicians.

Prior to the 2000s, I would never have believed that this massive
level of corruption and criminality was possible in the United States.
Maybe in Russia, maybe in China, but not in the United States. It was
only made possible with the rise of Generation-X in the 2000s.

The second infuriating thing is that so many mainstream economists and
bank managers and politicians claim they never saw the financial
crisis coming. They didn't even know there was a housing bubble until
well after the financial crisis began.

And my question, the one that I've asked myself over and over for
years, is: If none of these people knew that there was a housing
bubble, then how the frigging hell did I know it in 2004? And why,
year after year, did people I tried to explain it to treat me as a
pariah? (Yes, this has gotten very personal for me.)

The fact is that I've concluded long ago that they weren't caught by
surprise at all. The Gen-Xers who created the fraudulent synthetic
securities had by and large graduated with Masters degrees in
Financial Engineering in the 1990s. Many Gen-Xers (including Obama
himself) were children of divorce and hated their fathers and their
fathers' generation. There's huge amounts of stuff on the internet
about this. So when the Nasdaq crash occurred in 2000, they blamed it
on their fathers' generation, and purposely sold them fraudulent
securities to get even with them.

What about the bank CEO and other top-level bank managers. Did they
know that they were defrauding the public?

Yes of course they did, and I'll explain why. In April 2010, Congress
interviewed numerous financial executives, including former Citigroup
CEO Charles Prince and former Citigroup Chairman Robert Rubin, who was
also the Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. (See my
April 2010 article: "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud")

Based on the testimony, the Committee concluded that these banks had
made investment claims that were mathematically impossible. In brief,
they had taken B and C rated securities, sliced and diced them into
CDOs, and came up with AAA rated securities with the same nominal
value, which is mathematically impossible. Commission member Byron
Georgiou said:

<QUOTE>"Yesterday I likened it to the medieval alchemy, and
today, as I study it more, I'm beginning to believe that maybe it
was hallucinatory."<END QUOTE>

Georgiou went on to summarize the "smoking gun" figures that proved
that fraud was committed, and that Charles Prince and Robert Rubin
must have known this. Prince and Rubin could not have understood the
mathematics behind the creation of the synthetic securities created by
Masters of Financial Engineering, but they certainly must have known
that when B-rated securities are turning into AAA-rated securities of
the same nominal value, then something illegal must be going on. In
other words, the Committee proved that Charles Prince and Robert Rubin
had committed criminal fraud, and that they should be prosecuted and,
if convicted, sent to jail.

After I wrote the 2010 article on the Commission hearings, I waited
for the investigations and prosecutions to begin. And of course they
never did. It was too lucrative for the Obama administration, who
needed those campaign contributions for the 2012 reelection campaign.
So all the criminals are still walking the streets or, more likely, at
their jobs criminally defrauding more people.

Going back to "The Big Short" movie now, the movie does not attempt to
sugar coat what happened. Although the movie does not name names of
bankster criminals, Baum and the others repeatedly make it clear that
these bankers and politicians know they're committing fraud, and
they're going to do nothing about it. In fact, probably the most
depressing moment for Baum in the movie is when he realizes that the
Justice Department is not only not going to prosecute these criminal
bankers, but is going to go further and bail them out with taxpayer
money, rewarding these crooks for their criminality.


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 22.95 on December 24, indicating a huge stock market bubble (WSJ)

The end of the movie also makes clear what I've been saying for years:
That crisis is far from over, and there's going to be a new round of
job loss, homelessness, and financial ruin for millions of people.

As I've repeated many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's
Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (December 24) was at an
astronomically high 22.95. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

This brings me to the final reason why this movie so infuriated and
upset me, and this is extremely personal. As I said, I knew in 2004
that there was a housing bubble, and I wrote about it many times.
Other people (such as Baum in the movie) figured it out and were able
to make millions of dollars, but all I get for getting it right is to
be treated as a pariah. My web site, using generational analysis, has
for years correctly predicted what would happen in the Mideast, in
Afghanistan, in Russia, in China, and so forth. There is no web site
or analyst or journalist in the world with anything like the
predictive and analytical success of my web site. But not only is
this apparently not of value to anyone, but it's brought me nothing
but misery, as I'm hated and shunned by many people, in some cases
even people I've known for years.

My story is the story of the mythical Cassandra. After her
predictions all came true and Troy was massacred, Cassandra was raped
and assaulted. My only hope is that when everything that Generational
Dynamics predicts comes true, my demise will be a lot quicker and a
lot less painful. For me, that's the lesson of "The Big Short."
Variety and USA Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Big Short, Charles Prince, Robert Rubin,
Byron Georgiou, Cassandra

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Selfish Boomers time and time again have shown that if they had to choose between their kids on one hand and democracy and globalism on the other. They would choose the ideological dogma. Decisions that would primarily affect Xers and Millies should be made by Xers and Millies. Boomers should not be imposing their own values down the younger generations throats: that includes boomers stalling in the hope that events force-imprint a boomer-style worldview in Xers and Millies. Boomers are committing political rape of the young by blocking reform.

Boomers celebrate the blundering conduct when entering Afghanistan and Iraq. When our forces arrived their the local civilians ran toward our troops and boomers padded themselves on the back. Those leaders forgot the true maxim of history: in that a truly feared force would have the locals fleeing in terror at the very mention of their approach. Numerous soldiers were killed because boomers imposed friendly territory rules on our troops allowing terrorists to sneak-up and pretend greet a soldier then shoot and kill the soldier when his back was turned.

In popular culture an example would be the star wars concept of the "dark side" and the "light side". Applying this to actual history, various societies could be said to have differing amounts of "light side" and "dark side" sometimes even the same nation would have different amounts of "light side" and "dark side" at different periods in their history. Nazi Germany for example was pretty much 100 percent "dark side". Britain and the US were the countries with the largest amount of "light side" in the ww2 era. Ever since the 2T the boomers however have gone full retard with the "light side" imposing tolerance, peace-lovingness and multiculturalism everywhere they go. Tyrannical Boomers block Xer and Millie attempts to infuse more "dark side" leaning ideological elements into America's national character and political consciousness.

In short John X, the problems could be solved if American leadership thought outside the box, if they come up with solutions outside of those permitted by democratic ideology. But the boomers won't allow those solutions because they love democracy too much.

Boomers support NATO expansion in Europe and the Forward policy in the area of Taiwan against china without ever asking the younger generations of their opinions on these policies. The policies implemented reflect the views of boomers, the younger generations are shut out. Democracy is supposed to represent everyone.

Also when people post on this thread, they are not posting just to post. They are expecting a reply, especially when they quote points presented here.