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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 118







Post#2926 at 01-11-2016 02:31 AM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
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01-11-2016, 02:31 AM #2926
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 3-Jan-16 World View -- Mideast sectarian tensions surge as Iranians burn down Saudi embassy in Tehran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Saudi Arabians execute 47 prisoners for 'terrorism' including prominent Shia cleric
  • Execution of Shia cleric Nirm al-Nimr triggers mass protests in Mideast


****
**** Saudi Arabians execute 47 prisoners for 'terrorism' including prominent Shia cleric
****



A graphic appearing on the web site of Supreme Leader Khamenei that accuses of Saudi Arabia of supporting ISIS and also beheading people as ISIS does (khamenei.ir)

On Saturday, protesters in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, stormed
the Saudi Arabian embassy, setting it on fire, and burning the entire
insides, according to reports. There were widespread Shia protests in
other parts of the Mideast, including the coastal city of Qatif in
eastern Saudi Arabia, and in northwest Iran.

What triggered the Shia protests was that Saudi Arabia on Saturday
executed 47 prisoners -- 45 Saudi citizens, one from Egypt and one
from Chad.

According to Saudi news media, most of those executed were Al-Qaeda
members convicted for their involvement in bombing major government
facilities 2004, the Ministry of Interior and the Emergency Forces in
the same year, killing several security men and citizens. They were
also found guilty of bombing the US Consulate in Jeddah in 2004,
killing four security men; and attacking the water refinery in Abqaiq
in 2006, which claimed the lives of two security men.

According to the Saudis, the executed men were convicted of embracing
takfiri (deviant) ideology, contradicting the Koran and the Sunnah.
The Sunnah are the writings of Muslim scholars in the centuries
following the death of Mohammed, and they are one of the bedrocks
that distinguish the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam.

Embracing takfiri ideology apparently meant not just the Shia
ideology, but also the Al-Khawarij doctrine. The Khawarij were the
first sect, in 657, to split from the mainstream Muslims following the
death of Mohammed. They're rejected by both Sunni and Shia
governments because they oppose much of the rule of law, even Sharia
law, except their own interpretation. The Khawarij are still active
today and, according to some scholars, the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is a Khawarij sect. Arab News (Riyadh) and
Arab News
and Call To Islam

****
**** Execution of Shia cleric Nirm al-Nimr triggers mass protests in Mideast
****


Iran officials have been harshly condemning the 47 executions,
particularly the execution of Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, a
well-known Shia cleric who spent more than a decade studying theology
in Iran. He became an anti-government protester in Saudi Arabia, and
has encouraged Shia protests in eastern Saudi Arabia. He was arrested
in July 2012 and sentenced to death on October, 2014. Since then,
Iran has frequently condemned the killing of al-Nimr, and demanded his
release.

There were numerous statements form Iranian officials, including one
by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei who compared Saudi
Arabia to ISIS in its ideology and the brutality of its executions. A
statement appearing on the web site of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC) seemed designed to encourage Shia's to protest:
<QUOTE>"The criminal act of execution of Sheikh Nimr the
leader of Shia in Saudi Arabia is part of a Zionist [Israeli]
conspiracy to sow discord among the world Muslims which will be
aborted by the Heavenly blessings coming down to us by the pure
blood of these martyrs. Definitely, Muslims will react to this
atrocity and violence through consolidation of unity, which will
contribute to the resistance ideals of liberation of the holy Quds
[Jerusalem].

The medieval act of savagery by the Saudi regime is blatant
violation of Sheikh Nimrís inalienable rights and the freedom of
expression, and a clear evidence that Takfirist [deviant] ideology
of Wahhabist teachings, now championed by ISIL, has dominated the
files and ranks of the Saudi government. ...

Saudi regime will definitely pay heavy prices for the execution of
Sheikh Nimr as unabashed and rash conduct."<END QUOTE>

Widespread Shia protests began shortly afterwards the eastern coastal
city of Qatif in Saudi Arabia, in Bahrain, outside the Saudi consulate
in Mashhad in northeastern Iran, and at the Saudi embassy in Iran.
Protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran and set it on fire,
burning the entire inside of the building according to reports.

There was a BBC World Service special show that aired a couple of days
ago -- an hour of the top BBC reporters and analysts predicting what
would happen in 2016. Most of it was pretty fatuous, but the thing
that really made me start laughing was when one of the reporters -- I
think it was Lyse Doucet -- predicted that in 2016, Saudi Arabia and
Iran would get together to start peace talks, and would settle many of
their difference by the end of the year. That was two days before the
current incident. I don't tell this to criticize Lyse Doucet, who is
a fine reporter and analyst, but rather to show that reporters in
general are extremely liberal and have no clue what's going on in the
world, even in the countries they report from as correspondents.

As I've been saying for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major war between Arabs and Jews, between
different ethnic groups, and most particularly, a massive sectarian
war between Sunnis and Shias. Thanks to numerous events in 2015,
including the war in Yemen, the rise of ISIS, the military
intervention of Russia, and Iran's nuclear deal with the west, this
sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias has moved a lot closer. And
now it's only January 2, 2016, and these new events are going to have
major repercussions in the weeks and months to come. Mehr News (Tehran) and Press TV (Tehran) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Al-Khawarij doctrine, Qatif,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, BBC, Lyse Doucet, Israel

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From the US perspective, the 6.4 trillion dollar question (which no one seems to be asking) is what happens if insurgency between Shia and Sunni now breaks out in Saudi Arabia? The US is committed to defending Saudi Arabia--the linchpin of the petrodollar, but the Saudi monarchy is morally indefensible to the American People. And if it collapses, the alternative may well turn out to be ISIS. And Saudi Arabia without counting the uninhabited Rub al Khali is the size of the US east of the Mississippi. A big issue especially with Iran in Russia and China's camp. What does the US do? Occupy the oilfields and hope for the best?







Post#2927 at 01-11-2016 08:17 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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01-11-2016, 08:17 AM #2927
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Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
> The US is committed to defending Saudi Arabia
The US is committed defending any number of countries through mutual
defense treaties, but as far as I know, Saudi Arabia isn't one of them.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press...l-relationship
Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 01-11-2016 at 08:53 AM. Reason: Correct "is" to "isn't"







Post#2928 at 01-11-2016 08:38 AM by marypoza [at joined Jun 2015 #posts 374]
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01-11-2016, 08:38 AM #2928
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Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
The closest thing Obamacare seems to resemble overseas is the Israeli Kupat Chulim. The difference is that the Israeli HMOs are all non-profit while Americas are for profit except in Minnesota. And in many states, because of mergers and state regulation, there is a monopoly with only one insurance company for the whole state. Donald Trump of all people has complained about this (from the point of view of a business owner having to negotiate with monopolies that have businesses as well as individuals over a barrel) and for this reason, has come out in favour of single-payer health care (Medicare for all), probably closer to Australian Medicare (with private insurors covering things like dental, no waiting lists, eye care, ect). that Medicare dosen't rather than the British NHS. Bernie Sanders also wants single-payer health care (probably in his case, modelled on Canada--neighbouring state and all that). Hillary, by the way, dosen't want single-payer.

-- thanx Mordecai for the comparison. One of my cousins is an MD in Perth, yes their system is very good. The Canadians have a good system as far as I've heard, & for that matter so do we- the age limit just needs to be lowered to 0. I already know that the Donald advocates Medicare for all & Hillary doesn't. I also know that before he ran for Prez as a repug he was a Dem. I am not a single issue voter but I have to admit that if Bernie does not get the nomination & the Donald does, I would seriously consider voting for him due to his healthcare stance. I'm thinking all his bluster, obnoxious as it is, is for whipping up the repug base. The majority of it is not doable, & I think he knows it's not doable. He didn't get to where he is being stoopid
Last edited by marypoza; 01-11-2016 at 08:41 AM.







Post#2929 at 01-12-2016 12:31 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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01-12-2016, 12:31 AM #2929
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12-Jan-16 World View -- India threatens retaliation on Pakistan terrorists

*** 12-Jan-16 World View -- India threatens retaliation on Pakistan terrorists for air base attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Terror attack on India's Pathankot air base exposes weak defenses
  • India threatens retaliation for the Pathankot attack
  • Pathankot air base incident revives memories of the '26/11' Mumbai attack in 2008


****
**** Terror attack on India's Pathankot air base exposes weak defenses
****



Aftermath of terror attack on Pathankot air base (AP)

Indians are in shock at how easily a terror group was able to
infiltrate an Indian Air Force Base at Pathankot, in Punjab province
near the border with Pakistan, for a devastating terror attack on
January 2-3.

In retrospect, it seems like a comedy of errors.

India's Border Security Force (BSF), which guards the international
border between Punjab and Pakistan, at first had no clue that heavily
armed terrorists had infiltrated the base from Pakistan. The
terrorists evaded the BSF when they were discovered, but the BSF
didn't raise the alarm, thinking they were merely robbers.

Late on December 31, the terrorists grabbed Pathankotís Superintendent
of Police (SP), Salwinder Singh, blindfolded him and threw him out of
his car, in which they fled. When Singh reported the incident, his
seniors didn't take him seriously, thinking that he had gotten drunk
at a New Year's Eve party. When they finally took him seriously, they
had no idea where the terrorists had gone. The base has a sprawling
perimeter with a circumference of 25km, and has nearly 10,000 families
living there.

India's National Security Guard (NSG) was activated, and gunfights
between the terrorists began on January 1, and continued through the
night into January 2. Three terrorists were killed, and the NSG
thought the fight was over, but gunfights with the remaining
terrorists began again later that day.

The terrorists had defeated every layer of protection that India had
put in place to protect the Pathankot air base. The terrorists had
managed to enter the air base undetected. They were already inside the
base's reinforced gates well before the NSG commandos took
position. The terrorists had managed to evade the Border Security
Force (BSF), the Punjab Police and the Garud and Defense Service
Corps.

The Pathankot incident is being viewed as an index of the
extraordinary weakness in the protection of the countryís critical
strategic assets. The air force base constitutes the frontline air
defense for any confrontation with Pakistan, and yet the terrorists
succeeded in penetrating into the campus and inflicting significant
casualties. This was despite nearly 20 hours of clear warning, a
definitive identification of the intended target, and a systemic
response that had been initiated fairly early on January 1, 2016,
after central intelligence agencies picked up conversations by the
terrorists with their handlers and their families, and the Punjab
Police received specific information about their movements and
intention from the Ďabductedí Superintendent of Police whose car was
used by the terrorists. Hindustan Times and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

****
**** India threatens retaliation for the Pathankot attack
****


The perpetrators are believed to be the Pakistan-based terror group
Jaish-e-Mohammed, based on evidence collected by India, and passed on
to Pakistani authorities.

India's prime minister Narendra Modi had visited Pakistan's prime
minister Nawaz Sharif in the latter's ancestral home near Lahore on
December 25. (Neither Hindus nor Muslims celebrate Christmas.) The
meeting was described as "very warm," and held "amid immense goodwil
in a very cordial atmosphere."

Their meeting was part of the hallucinatory "peace process" talks that
have been off and on for years, through many changes of government,
but never getting anywhere. It's thought that Jaish-e-Mohammed may
have conducted the Pathankot attack in order to, once again, derail
the "peace process."

There are certainly no "peace talks" planned now for any time soon.
India's defense minister Manohar Parrikar on Monday warned that India
will get revenge on the perpetrators of the attack.

<QUOTE>"If someone is harming this country, then that
particular individual or organization, I purposely used the words
individual and organization, should also receive the pain of such
activities. The time and place should be of our choosing.

Basic principle is that until we give them pain, whoever they may
be, until then, such incidents will not reduce."<END QUOTE>

However, Parrikar did not respond to questions about whether that
India is planning a retaliation attack on Jaish-e-Mohammed on
Pakistani soil. New Delhi TV (25-Dec-2015) and Indian Express and India.com

****
**** Pathankot air base incident revives memories of the '26/11' Mumbai attack in 2008
****


The Pathankot incident is reviving bitter memories of the horrendous
"26/11" terrorist attack on a number of hotels in Mumbai, India. The
attacks began on November 26, 2008, and lasted three days, killing 166
people, and wounding hundreds more. ( "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis"
from 2008)

The attack was blamed on Lashkar-e-Taibi (LeT), a Pakistani terrorist
group that was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of
Kashmir and Jammu. After the attack, India threatened to send its
army to attack LeT on Pakistani soil, which might have led to a major
war. This was prevented by hard intervention by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice.

Pakistan promised to pursue and prosecute LeT in its own courts.
However, the alleged leader of the Mumbai attack, Zaki-ur-Rahman
Lakhvi, has never been seriously prosecuted, presumably for fear of
implicating some Pakistani government officials. Lakhvi is out on
bail, and is now leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), which is a front
group for LeT.

The Pathankot attack revives the same issues, particularly after
Manohar Parrikar's demands for retaliation, and the hinted possibility
of Indian military action to pursue Jaish-e-Mohammed on Indian soil.

All the usual diplomatic moves are being played:

  • India has handed over evidence to Pakistan that includes
    intercepts of phone calls allegedly made by the terrorists to their
    handlers in Pakistan. Ammunition and other equipment were also handed
    over to Pakistan.
  • India has demanded that Pakistan act promptly and urgently to find
    and prosecute those behind the attack.
  • Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif has assured Narendra Modi
    that prompt and decisive action will be taken against those found
    guilty. However, Sharif is denying that either Pakistan's government
    of the ISI had anything to do with the attack.
  • Parts of Pakistan's media are blaming the attack on India's own
    intelligence services, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) to
    sabotage the dialogue process. They note that India had had
    some reports in advance warning of an attack, but that India's
    security forces did nothing to prevent it.
  • On Monday, Pakistan authorities reported that the phone numbers
    provided as evidence had been investigated, and were found to be
    unregistered and untraceable. Indian authorities reportedly consider
    that laughable, saying that Pakistanís telecom rules do not allow
    phone numbers to be activated until registered.


Pakistani authorities have carried out raids and arrested an
unspecified number of people. The arrests led Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif to order a joint investigation team of Intelligence Bureau(IB),
Inter-Services Intelligence, Military Intelligence, Federal
Investigation Agency and police to thoroughly probe the Pathankot
attack links to Pakistan. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Daily Pakistan and Indian Express and Pakistan Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pathankot air base,
Border Security Force, BSF, Salwinder Singh, National Security Guard, NSG,
Narendra Modi, Nawaz Sharif, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Manohar Parrikar,
Mumbai, 26/11, Lashkar-e-Taibi, LeT, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI,
Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, JuD,
Research and Analysis Wing, RAW

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Post#2930 at 01-12-2016 11:15 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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13-Jan-16 World View -- Royal Bank of Scotland predicts sharp 2016 recession

*** 13-Jan-16 World View -- Royal Bank of Scotland predicts sharp 2016 recession, says 'Sell everything!'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Iran captures ten American sailors in Persian Gulf hours before Obama speech
  • Royal Bank of Scotland predicts sharp 2016 recession, says 'Sell everything!'
  • Suicide bombing in Istanbul Turkey kills 10 tourists


****
**** Iran captures ten American sailors in Persian Gulf hours before Obama speech
****



Two US Navy boats with 10 American sailors held by Iranís Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. (PressTv - Iran)

According to Sepah News, the official site of Iran's Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC):

<QUOTE>"The army detained two US military ships in the
Persian Gulf which were in violation of Iranian territorial
waters. ...

At 16:30 Tuesday armed gunmen being carried by two US military
vessels that entered the territorial waters of the Islamic
Republic of Iran near Farsi Island were seized and transferred to
the island. ... Those on board the American vessels included 9
men and a woman."<END QUOTE>

US Defense Department officials say that the Iranian's have informed
them "of the safety and well-being of our personnel. We have received
assurances the sailors will promptly be allowed to continue their
journey."

As we wrote in "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement"
, there are many opponents to the nuclear deal in
Iran's government, including many who would like to sabotage it. It's
thought that Tuesday's incident was timed to embarrass President Obama
just before his State of the Union speech.

This was just the latest of a series of hostile incidents. Two weeks
ago, Iran launched rockets that landed within 1,500 yards of the
U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman. Iran is also holding a
Washington post reporter in jail. Sepah News (Iran - Trans) and Military.com

****
**** Royal Bank of Scotland predicts sharp 2016 recession, says 'Sell everything!'
****


Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) are predicting a sharp
2016 global recession and deflation, with stock market prices falling
10-20% by the end of the year.

The RBS report repeatedly says that this about "return of capital, not
return on capital," which means that the analysis is not about earning
3%, 4% or 5% on your investments, but is about not losing 10-20% or
more on your investments. Forecasting a "cataclysmic year" and a
global deflationary crisis, the report concludes:

<QUOTE>"Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is
about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall,
exit doors are small."<END QUOTE>

The last sentence means that when stocks start falling, everyone will
try to sell, but only a few will succeed in doing so without losing a
lot of money.

RBS has repeatedly warned that global finance "looks similar to
2008," when the last major financial crisis occur, but now the outlook
has become significantly more ominous in the last six weeks.

The author of the report says that global debt ratios have reached
record highs and are particularly ominous, and "China has set off a
major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have
become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the
'Goldilocks love-in' of the last two years."

Another ominous trend is the plunge in crude oil - down 19% so far in
this year (2016) alone, and an incredible 72% plunge from crude oil's
June 2014 peak of almost $108. On Tuesday, oil prices fell below $30
per barrel for the first time since December 2013. RBS, Morgan
Stanley, Standard Charter and Barclays have all recently predicted
that oil will fall below $20 per barrel, perhaps below $10 per barrel.

Commodities in general have been plummeting, a sign of weakening
global economies, especially in China and emerging markets. The RBS
points out that in the last six weeks alone, copper has fallen 1.5%,
coal down 6.2%, wheat down 3.5%, corn down 4.1%, soybeans up 0.3%.
The Baltic Dry index, a measure of international commodities
shipments, has fallen 16%.

One more forecast mentioned in the RBS report: "Automation on its way
to destroy 30-50% of all jobs in developed world." That indicates
something much worse than a 10-20% recession.


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 21.03 on January 8, indicating a huge stock market bubble (WSJ)

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's
Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (January 8) was at an
astronomically high 21.08. This is a bit smaller than it's been in a
while, but still far above the historical average of 14, indicating
that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any
time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to
the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982,
resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Royal Bank of Scotland (PDF) and Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London) and CNN

****
**** Suicide bombing in Istanbul Turkey kills 10 tourists
****


A suicide bombing killed at least 10 foreign nations, most of them
Germans, and wounded 15 others, blowing himself up at a major tourist
spot in Istanbul on Tuesday. The explosion occurred near Hagia
Sophia, which was originally a Greek Orthodox cathedral, the largest
cathedral in the world, until the fall of Constantinople to the Muslim
Ottomans in 1453. After that it was converted to a mosque, and later
to a museum, and is now Istanbul's biggest tourist attraction.

The perpetrator was 28 year old Nabil Fadli, of Syrian origin, born in
Saudi Arabia in 1988. He has been identified as a member of the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

There have been three major ISIS terrorist acts in the last seven
months. ISIS was blamed for a bomb that killed four people at a
Peoplesí Democratic Party (HDP) rally in the southeastern province of
Diyarbakir on June 5, 2015. An ISIS militant also killed 33 socialist
activists on July 20, 2015, at the Amara Cultural Center in the
southeastern district of SuruÁ. Two ISIS militants then killed at
least 100 people attending a peace rally in Ankara on Oct. 10, 2015,
in the deadliest attack in the countryís history. Hurriyet Daily News (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Royal Bank of Scotland, RBS,
Turkey, Istanbul, Hagia Sophia, Constantinople, Nabil Fadli,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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Post#2931 at 01-13-2016 11:46 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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14-Jan-16 World View -- Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing Tamils

*** 14-Jan-16 World View -- Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Iran releases American sailors as end of sanctions approaches
  • Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils
  • Sri Lanka joining the torture club, with Syria, Burundi, Zimbabwe


****
**** Iran releases American sailors as end of sanctions approaches
****



Screen grab from Iranian video showing capture of American soldiers

If things go as planned, Iran will have access to $100 billion in
frozen bank accounts, starting next week when American sanctions are
lifted.

It's thought that this is the reason the Iran's Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps (IRGC) so quickly released the ten American sailors
captured a day earlier, allegedly for violating Iran's territorial
waters. It's believed very unlikely that the sanctions would be
lifted if Iran were holding ten American sailors for no reason.

According to some reports, there were widespread Iranian social media
postings pressuring the government to release the sailors, so that
Iran could collect the money from the raised sanctions.

Iran released a video showing the American soldiers on their knees at
gunpoint, and an American sailor apologizing and saying:

<QUOTE>"It was a mistake that was our fault and we apologize
for our mistake. It was a misunderstanding. We did not mean to go
into Iranian territorial water. The Iranian behavior was fantastic
while we were here. We thank you very much for your hospitality
and your assistance."<END QUOTE>

When British sailors allegedly entered Iranian waters in 2007, they
were accused of being spies, paraded on television in a big Iranian
song and dance, and only released two weeks later after forced
confessions. CNN and
NBC News

****
**** Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils
****


Evidence is mounting that Sri Lankan government security forces are
continuing high levels of torture and sexual violence on Tamils, as
revenge attacks since the Sri Lankan civil war ended in 2009.

The Sri Lanka civil war was fought between two ancient races: The
Sinhalese (Buddhist) and the Tamils (Hindu). WW II was a generational
crisis war for India and for Ceylon, the former name of Sri Lanka.
There was relative peace on the island until 1976, when the Tamils
began demanding a separate Tamil state, and formed a separatist group
called the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or just "Tamil
Tigers."

In January 2008, the low-level violence turned into a full scale
generational crisis war, as we reported at the time. (From 2008:
"Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels"
)

Under United Nations and intense international pressure, the
Sinhalese-led Sri Lankan government has repeatedly promised to pursue
reconciliation with the Tamils. But a new report by the
"International Truth & Justice Project Sri Lanka" (ITJPSL), based on
interviews with victims, indicates that Tamils are being targeted for
torture and rape.

According to the report, the abductions and torture were pre-planned
in each case, after collecting information about the victims'
political activities, perpetrated by senior officers in the police and
military intelligence. Torture included being hung upside-down and
beaten, being branded with metal rods, and asphyxiated using a plastic
bag soaked with petrol or chili. Both male and female victims were
raped repeatedly. IRIN (United Nations) and International Truth & Justice Project Sri Lanka

****
**** Sri Lanka joining the torture club, with Syria, Burundi, Zimbabwe
****


From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka is
beginning down the same path that we've been seeing in Burundi, Syria
and Zimbabwe, following a generational crisis war that's also a civil
war.

These examples, particularly the Syrian war, have led us to add to the
generational theory related to the outcome following a generational
crisis war, as we've been describing for several months.

Among generational crisis wars, an external war is fundamentally
different than an internal civil war between two ethnic groups. If
two ethnic groups have lived together in peace for decades, have
intermarried and worked together, and if then there's a civil war
where one of these ethnic groups tortures, massacres and slaughters
their next-door neighbors in the other ethnic group, then the outcome
will be fundamentally different than if the same torture and slaughter
had been rendered by an external group. In either case, the country
will spend the Recovery Era setting up rules and institutions designed
to prevent any such war from occurring again. But in one case, the
country will enter the Awakening era unified, except for generational
political differences, and in the other case, the country will be
increasingly torn along the same ethnic fault line.

In some cases, where the government during the Recovery Era is
controlled by the winning ethnic group, the government uses
"preventing another civil war" as an excuse to target the losing
ethnic group, whether by economic discrimination, torture, revenge
murder, or mass slaughter.

  • For example, in a July article about Burundi,
    I described how Burundi's Hutu president
    Pierre Nkurunziza was using such violence to quell Tutsi protests,
    supposedly to avoid a repeat of the 1994 Rwanda-Burundi genocidal war
    between Hutus and Tutsis.
  • As another example, in a June article about Zimbabwe,
    I described how Zimbabwe's president Robert
    Mugabe, from the Shona tribe, was even worse. His 1984 pacification
    campaign, targeting the Ndebele tribe, was known as "Operation
    Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring
    rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's
    5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of people,
    mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were tortured and slaughtered.
  • In Syria, Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad began in 2011 to
    conduct a campaign to exterminate innocent Sunni protesters. He's
    killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms.
    He's used Sarin gas against his own people, and he's killed countless
    more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine
    gas. In addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging,
    strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of
    prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and does so with
    complete impunity, and has been doing so for many years


So now it's beginning to appear that Sri Lanka is joining the same
torture club as these other three countries. From the point of view
of Generational Dynamics, these are not four unique situations, but
rather four countries following exactly the same pattern. As
generational theory develops in this area, it will be possible to make
a broad range of predictions about the futures of many countries. There
really is nothing new under the sun.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Sri Lanka, Sinhalese, Tamil,
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, LTTE, Tamil Tigers,
Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, Hutus, Tutsis,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Operation Gukurahundi, Syria, Bashar al-Assad

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Post#2932 at 01-14-2016 02:27 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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I've just received this week's subscriber-only Debka newsletter (sent
to me by a subscriber). It contains a lengthy analysis of the
political situation in Saudi Arabia, including the following
paragraph:

Quote Originally Posted by Debka Weekly
> 5. As the Shiite-Sunni contest builds up, Riyadh sees the two main
> world powers, America and Russia, tilting towards the Shiite bloc
> of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah versus the Saudi-led lineup of
> the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.
This is exactly the lineup I've been predicting for years!!!! No one
is more astonished than I am that Generational Dynamics has been
correct time after time after time!!

This outcome shows the brilliance of Strauss and Howe's work. When I
set up my web site in 2003, it was with the specific purpose of
posting predictions, based on S&H's methodology, where they would
remain available for anyone in the world to verify them. The
reasoning going through my mind was that if the S&H methodology could
accurately explain what happened in the past, then if I could extend
it to other countries, then it must be possible to use the same
methodology to predict what would happen in the future. At that time,
I was really going into the unknown. I was hoping for some success,
but I didn't imagine how successful it would be. I'd be even more
excited if it didn't mean that we're all going to be killed. Oh well.







Post#2933 at 01-14-2016 04:35 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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John X the peace process with iran is unlikely to survive the election; of all the candidates only Hillary wants to continue the current policy. Regarding the recent state of the Union address: I'm not here to discuss the relative merits of the policies in general BUT by FAR the WORST part of the address was when Obama started saying that rejecting refugees and carpet bombing the enemy indiscriminately was not the American character. Establishment boomers and their kids and subordinates applauded that NONSENSE. This also Brings up a subject mentioned by presumably a boomer on your own site regarding the dynamics of longer-lengthen saeculum's, this is a criticism of his and other Boomers mentality.

Boomers hope to pursue obsolete policies in order to shove their ideological preferences down their kids throats, no matter how destructive those preferences are, boomers openly talk of blocking reform that would have been constructive to their countries and that their kids like. This is especially true in Europe. Not permitting reform in the hopes that crisis enters main phase more quickly so that the boomers are still in charge when the main part of the crisis begins so the Nomads and Heroes are forced to utilize the old structure to manage the crisis. Such policy decisions by boomers just confirms that Xers and Millies characterization of boomers as driven by extreme selfishness is correct. Xers and Millies hate the old order they DESPISE it, boomers simply refuse to listen because they know if the crisis hits after Xers and Millies are in charge and start implementing needed reforms, boomers would be unable to mold crisis and post crisis society around putting globalism and human rights above self-interest and even self-preservation. Boomers would only care about advancing their views of utopia, and relegate Xers and Millies into roles in which they are just doing what they are told to do by boomers.

The boomer poster I mentioned earlier used the French revolution as an example of why the crisis was better off occuring while the prophets are still in charge. I disagree, although France was unable to hold its conquest of Europe and was forced to relinquish its conquests in the end, they were able to reform their society, and the overall result was far better than what would have happened had they continued being ruled by the Ancien Regime. Had the latter occurred instead of the revolution France likely would have ended up being partitioned between Austria, Prussia, and Britain. To use another historical example: I cannot see how in what way is the pathetic performance of Russia in WW1 is somehow superior to Russia's glorious performance in WW2.
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 01-14-2016 at 05:42 PM.







Post#2934 at 01-14-2016 11:22 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
> John X the peace process with iran is unlikely to survive the
> election; of all the candidates only Hillary wants to continue the
> current policy. Regarding the recent state of the Union address:
> I'm not here to discuss the relative merits of the policies in
> general BUT by FAR the WORST part of the address was when Obama
> started saying that rejecting refugees and carpet bombing the
> enemy indiscriminately was not the American
> character. Establishment boomers and their kids and subordinates
> applauded that NONSENSE. This also Brings up a subject mentioned
> by presumably a boomer on your own site regarding the dynamics of
> longer-lengthen saeculum's, this is a criticism of his and other
> Boomers mentality.

> Boomers hope to pursue obsolete policies in order to shove their
> ideological preferences down their kids throats, no matter how
> destructive those preferences are, boomers openly talk of blocking
> reform that would have been constructive to their countries and
> that their kids like. This is especially true in Europe. Not
> permitting reform in the hopes that crisis enters main phase more
> quickly so that the boomers are still in charge when the main part
> of the crisis begins so the Nomads and Heroes are forced to
> utilize the old structure to manage the crisis. Such policy
> decisions by boomers just confirms that Xers and Millies
> characterization of boomers as driven by extreme selfishness is
> correct. Xers and Millies hate the old order they DESPISE it,
> boomers simply refuse to listen because they know if the crisis
> hits after Xers and Millies are in charge and start implementing
> needed reforms, boomers would be unable to mold crisis and post
> crisis society around putting globalism and human rights above
> self-interest and even self-preservation. Boomers would only care
> about advancing their views of utopia, and relegate Xers and
> Millies into roles in which they are just doing what they are told
> to do by boomers.

> The boomer poster I mentioned earlier used the French revolution
> as an example of why the crisis was better off occuring while the
> prophets are still in charge. I disagree, although France was
> unable to hold its conquest of Europe and was forced to relinquish
> its conquests in the end, they were able to reform their society,
> and the overall result was far better than what would have
> happened had they continued being ruled by the Ancien Regime. Had
> the latter occurred instead of the revolution France likely would
> have ended up being partitioned between Austria, Prussia, and
> Britain. To use another historical example: I cannot see how in
> what way is the pathetic performance of Russia in WW1 is somehow
> superior to Russia's glorious performance in WW2.


I only vaguely recall the conversation you're talking about, and I
think it was between "Nathan G" and "jmm1184". If that's true, then
it's worth mentioning that both of them are Millennials.







Post#2935 at 01-14-2016 11:57 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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15-Jan-16 World View -- UN's Ban Ki-moon calls Syria's Bashar al-Assad a war criminal

*** 15-Jan-16 World View -- UN's Ban Ki-moon calls Syria's Bashar al-Assad a war criminal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • UN's Ban Ki-moon calls Syria's Bashar al-Assad a war criminal
  • Second aid convoy arrives in the starving Syrian city of Mayada


****
**** UN's Ban Ki-moon calls Syria's Bashar al-Assad a war criminal
****



Starving boy found by aid workers in Madaya, Syria

Aid workers reaching the town of Madaya, an hour from Damascus in
Syria, found an almost unbelievable horror as thousands of people were
close to starvation. The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
with the support of Iran's puppet terror organization Hezbollah, has
been blockading Madaya for 200 days, preventing food or medicines from
reaching the town.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Thursday accused the Syrian
government of committing war crimes by using starvation as a weapon.
He accused the Bashar al-Assad regime of committing "atrocious acts"
and "unconscionable abuses" against civilians. According to Ban:

<QUOTE>"Let me be clear: the use of starvation as a weapon of
war is a war crime. All sides, including the Syrian government
which has the primary responsibility to protect Syrians, are
committing this and other atrocious acts prohibited under
international humanitarian law.

UN teams have witnessed scenes that haunt the soul. The elderly
and children, men and women, who were little more than skin and
bones: gaunt, severely malnourished, so weak they could barely
walk, and utterly desperate for the slightest
morsel."<END QUOTE>

The town of Madaya is not unique. According to Ban, there are 180,000
people similarly besieged in areas controlled by the Bashar al-Assad
regime. There are also about 200,000 people besieged by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and 12,000 in areas
controlled by opposition groups.

As I've been reporting for years, Shia/Alawite president Bashar
al-Assad has been committing war crimes and crimes against humanity
continuously. In 2011, he began a campaign to exterminate innocent
Sunni protesters. He's killed children by sending missiles into exam
rooms and bedrooms. He's used Sarin gas against his own people, and
he's killed countless more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives,
metals, and chlorine gas. In addition, he's used electrocution,
eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of
thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and
does so with complete impunity, and has been doing so for many years.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed Ali
Khamenei are also war criminals for supporting Bashar al-Assad's war
crimes.

Russia's state media reported Ban Ki-moon's accusations of war crimes,
without displaying any irony over Russia's complicity in the war
crimes. Iran's state media quoted Syria's ambassador as saying that
"media reports of starving civilians in the southwestern town of
Madaya have been fabricated in an attempt to defame the government of
President Bashar al-Assad." Reuters and Russia Today and Press TV (Tehran) and Anadolu Agency (Turkey)

****
**** Second aid convoy arrives in the starving Syrian city of Mayada
****


A second wave of aid convoys entered Madaya on Thursday evening,
delivering food and humanitarian supplies to the population of 40,000.
An earlier convoy of aid arrived Monday, bringing many starving
residents to tears, as Madaya had received no foreign aid since
October.

For months, the Bashar al-Assad had refused to allow food or
humanitarian aid to reach the town, but was finally forced to relent
under enormous international pressure. The aid is being delievered as
part of a U.N.-brokered deal, according to which aid must also be
delivered simultaneously to regions of al-Assad supporters being
beseiged by anti-Assad rebels. CNN and Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mayada,
Ban Ki-moon, Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, Vladimir Putin

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Post#2936 at 01-15-2016 12:39 AM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
John X the peace process with iran is unlikely to survive the election; of all the candidates only Hillary wants to continue the current policy. Regarding the recent state of the Union address: I'm not here to discuss the relative merits of the policies in general BUT by FAR the WORST part of the address was when Obama started saying that rejecting refugees and carpet bombing the enemy indiscriminately was not the American character. Establishment boomers and their kids and subordinates applauded that NONSENSE. This also Brings up a subject mentioned by presumably a boomer on your own site regarding the dynamics of longer-lengthen saeculum's, this is a criticism of his and other Boomers mentality.

Boomers hope to pursue obsolete policies in order to shove their ideological preferences down their kids throats, no matter how destructive those preferences are, boomers openly talk of blocking reform that would have been constructive to their countries and that their kids like. This is especially true in Europe. Not permitting reform in the hopes that crisis enters main phase more quickly so that the boomers are still in charge when the main part of the crisis begins so the Nomads and Heroes are forced to utilize the old structure to manage the crisis. Such policy decisions by boomers just confirms that Xers and Millies characterization of boomers as driven by extreme selfishness is correct. Xers and Millies hate the old order they DESPISE it, boomers simply refuse to listen because they know if the crisis hits after Xers and Millies are in charge and start implementing needed reforms, boomers would be unable to mold crisis and post crisis society around putting globalism and human rights above self-interest and even self-preservation. Boomers would only care about advancing their views of utopia, and relegate Xers and Millies into roles in which they are just doing what they are told to do by boomers.

The boomer poster I mentioned earlier used the French revolution as an example of why the crisis was better off occuring while the prophets are still in charge. I disagree, although France was unable to hold its conquest of Europe and was forced to relinquish its conquests in the end, they were able to reform their society, and the overall result was far better than what would have happened had they continued being ruled by the Ancien Regime. Had the latter occurred instead of the revolution France likely would have ended up being partitioned between Austria, Prussia, and Britain. To use another historical example: I cannot see how in what way is the pathetic performance of Russia in WW1 is somehow superior to Russia's glorious performance in WW2.
Strauss & Howe wondered what effect longer life expectancy would have on the Generational Cycle in Generations. I think we are beginning to find out one of the answers to that question. In previous Saecula, Prophets were not able to ram their preferences down their Nomad and Civic children's throats when Crisis hit unless the Crisis came early (the Civil War case) because they didn't live long enough. Now they do.







Post#2937 at 01-15-2016 05:07 AM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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That the Boomers want a Hag like Hillary running things shows just how delusional they are. Just like the boomers tendency to take away the younger generations options if the choices that would have been made were one's the boomers didn't like. Trump's program is a proposal for a 4T transformation. The Boomers want to Continue the country being the ideological standard bearer of world democracy even though that would mean certain war with Russia and/or China, the establishment shows disgust at the alternative path being offered by trump. The boomers decide to maintain an iron grip to make the people's choices for them, rather than just letting the people decide for themselves simply because they don't like the choices that the people would make without a boomer breathing down their necks. Instead boomers just want to ram their globalist "utopia" down their kids throats.







Post#2938 at 01-15-2016 05:48 AM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
That the Boomers want a Hag like Hillary running things shows just how delusional they are. Just like the boomers tendency to take away the younger generations options if the choices that would have been made were one's the boomers didn't like. Trump's program is a proposal for a 4T transformation. The Boomers want to Continue the country being the ideological standard bearer of world democracy even though that would mean certain war with Russia and/or China, the establishment shows disgust at the alternative path being offered by trump. The boomers decide to maintain an iron grip to make the people's choices for them, rather than just letting the people decide for themselves simply because they don't like the choices that the people would make without a boomer breathing down their necks. Instead boomers just want to ram their globalist "utopia" down their kids throats.
That sounds like a good description of Boomer environmentalism too. Many Boomers seem to be attracted to limits to growth, economic as well as population, for it's own sake and to regard abundance and "technical fixes" for pollution as a moral hazard.







Post#2939 at 01-15-2016 12:18 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,715]
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Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
That sounds like a good description of Boomer environmentalism too. Many Boomers seem to be attracted to limits to growth, economic as well as population, for it's own sake and to regard abundance and "technical fixes" for pollution as a moral hazard.
We have the benefit of experience to draw on, and not just in the technical realm. It's a lot different to live through something than it is to read about it in a book or watch it on a video. Since the Law of Unintended Consequences always has the last say, avoiding really bad news that can't be altered or ameliorated should be a prime focus. Of course, a lot of Boomers are supporting Trump, so that doesn't always apply.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#2940 at 01-15-2016 01:18 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
That the Boomers want a Hag like Hillary running things shows just how delusional they are. Just like the boomers tendency to take away the younger generations options if the choices that would have been made were one's the boomers didn't like. Trump's program is a proposal for a 4T transformation. The Boomers want to Continue the country being the ideological standard bearer of world democracy even though that would mean certain war with Russia and/or China, the establishment shows disgust at the alternative path being offered by trump. The boomers decide to maintain an iron grip to make the people's choices for them, rather than just letting the people decide for themselves simply because they don't like the choices that the people would make without a boomer breathing down their necks. Instead boomers just want to ram their globalist "utopia" down their kids throats.
And sadly a surprisingly significant minority of Xers and Millies want a Boomer reality TV windbag with a bad comb over. Jees I'm sorry and embarrassed on behalf of my Xer cohort. Well, with that .... SNOOKI '20!
Last edited by XYMOX_4AD_84; 01-19-2016 at 11:21 AM.







Post#2941 at 01-15-2016 07:14 PM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,899]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
We have the benefit of experience to draw on, and not just in the technical realm. It's a lot different to live through something than it is to read about it in a book or watch it on a video. Since the Law of Unintended Consequences always has the last say, avoiding really bad news that can't be altered or ameliorated should be a prime focus. Of course, a lot of Boomers are supporting Trump, so that doesn't always apply.
I don't think you understand where Mordecai is coming from. A great many Boomers are attracted to the idea that growth can be limited to a point where renewable energies can address all the needs of an economy. However, there is a problem with this, and it isn't the law of unintended consequences it is simple mathematics, in order to replace all the fossil fuels with renewables and to address the energy deficit through conservation or simple non-use would require just about everyone to live the same lifestyle as the Old Order Amish.

That of course means no car, no phone, no lights in the house (though you could probably have them in the barn), radio and tv forget about that let alone internet. No cell phone, no movies. Quite frankly it is a product that can't be sold because no one wants it.

At least the Amish offer their people something "spiritual" to sweeten the deal but for the rest of us it doesn't play.







Post#2942 at 01-15-2016 07:16 PM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,899]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
And sadly a surprisingly significant minority of Xers and Millies want a Boomer reality TV windbag with a bad comb over. Jees I'm sorry and embarrassed on behalf of my Xer cohort. Well, with that .... SNOOKIE '20!
I'm probably demonstrating the fact that I checked out of pop culture back in 1999 but what the hell is a Snookie?







Post#2943 at 01-15-2016 08:31 PM by David Krein [at Gainesville, Florida joined Jul 2001 #posts 604]
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I'll bet it's not Snooki Lanson of Your Hit Parade 🙃
"The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on; nor all your Piety nor Wit shall lure it back to cancel half a line, Nor all your Tears wash out a word of it." - Omar Khayyam.







Post#2944 at 01-16-2016 12:11 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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*** 16-Jan-16 World View -- Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align

*** 16-Jan-16 World View -- Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines
  • Saudi Arabia faces increased social unrest with sudden austerity budget


****
**** Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines
****



Saudi Arabia's Khurais oilfield (Reuters)

I want to extract one paragraph from the analyst report on Saudi
Arabia quoted at the end of this article:

<QUOTE>"As the Shiite-Sunni contest builds up, Riyadh [Saudi
Arabia] sees the two main world powers, America and Russia,
tilting towards the Shiite bloc of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah
versus the Saudi-led lineup of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt,
Turkey and Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

This is exactly the alignment that I've been predicting for years,
based on Generational Dynamics analyses, long before it seemed
possible. As I've described dozens of times, in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "allies" will be the United States,
India, Russia and Iran, while the "axis" will be China, Pakistan, and
the Sunni Muslim countries. Quite honestly, I'm as astonished as
anyone is when the generational theory analysis and predictions turn
out to be true time after time after time.

I'm going to take this fortuitous opportunity to give some advice to
all the people who have expressed contempt and scorn every time I've
made one of these predictions, though they themselves couldn't predict
their way out of a paper bag.

If you're an analyst, politician, army general, or college professor
whose job depends on knowing what's going on in the world, you would
do much better if you took the time to learn generational theory.
Generational theory was first developed in the 1980s-90s by William
Straus and Neil Howe, who showed how it applied to Britain and America
since the 1400s. Generational Dynamics extends their work to include
all nations at all times in history, and it provides a forecasting
methodology that has been almost 100% successful, as proven by
hundreds of predictions in thousands of articles since 2003.

The theory behind the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology
combines historical analysis with MIT's System Dynamics applied to
generational flows, the most significant and important application of
MIT's systems analysis found to this day. The theory also
incorporates Chaos Theory (to determine what can and cannot be
predicted), Mathematical Logic (to derive results from abstract models
of the world), Macroeconomics, Technological Forecasting and
Sociological Analysis.

If you or someone on your staff wants to master generational theory
and Generational Dynamics forecasting, the material is all on the Generational Dynamics web site, and is freely available to anyone. You can start with the
2010 paper: Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology (PDF). If you don't
take advantage of it, then your competitor might do so first.

****
**** Saudi Arabia faces increased social unrest with sudden austerity budget
****


With the price of oil now falling significantly below $30 per barrel,
and analysts expecting further plunges, the government of Saudi Arabia
is facing existential threats from several directions.

The most obvious threat is the loss of something like 75% of its
income from oil exports. This has forced the Saudi government to
adopt an "austerity budget" in 2016, cutting back massively on social
spending such as free health care, or subsidized gasoline, electricity
and other utilities.

Saudi Arabia is deep into a generational Crisis era, with its last
generational crisis war having been the Ibn Saud family's victory over
the Wahhabi Salafists that climaxed in 1925. The outcome of that war
was an uneasy peace between the two groups that allowed the Saud
family to govern but the Salafists to maintain much of the social
control in the country, including education and the "religion police."
It's rare for a country to go more than 60 or 70 years without a new
generational crisis war, and indeed as I wrote in September ( "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"
), things really came to a head in 1979 with a major
terrorist attack by a Salafist group on the Grand Mosque, shaking the
Saudi government to its core. That attack lit the fuse that led to
the creation of 9/11 and al-Qaeda and, more recently, the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The 1979 attack might have been the first step towards a new crisis
war, but the Saudi government has been able to hold off the Salafists
since 1979 by using their vast oil wealth for immense social spending
to prevent social unrest. But now, with the new "austerity budget,"
the Salafist groups are threatening the government.

When the Saudis executed 47 "terrorists" earlier this month, the
government talked about protecting its security. As one
pro-government cleric tweeted, the executions were "a message to the
world and to criminals that there will be no snuffing out of our
principles and no complacency in our security."

However, one of the 47 was a Shia cleric Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr,
and his execution inflamed Iran, as well as Shias in Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, and Pakistan. After Iranians firebombed the Saudi embassy in
Tehran, the two countries severed diplomatic relations. ( "4-Jan-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region"
) So the Saudi government is facing social unrest
from both Sunni Salafists and Shias.

Saudi Arabia's new King, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, rose to power
in January 2015, almost exactly a year ago, after the death of King
Abdullah, and there are concerns about a power struggle and possible
coup.

Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) says
there is a risk of a coup because of strong opposition to some of
Salman's policies:

[list=1][*] The Yemen civil war initiated by the defense minister has
reached a stalemate despite Saudi military intervention. The failure
to break through to victory has seriously weakened his position and
that of his father, King Salman.
[*] The Yemen war is costing the Saudi exchequer an astronomical $1
billion per month, equal to a whole year's outlay for the Russian
intervention in Syria. With oil prices plummeting to below $30 dollars
per barrel, Riyadh has had to dip deep into its reserves. In 2015, the
Saudis drew some $90-98 billion out, $600 billion total. The oil
kingdom, with little experience of having to count pennies, is aghast
at its new situation.
[*] The king's son is drafting a crisis plan for the sale of some 5
percent of Saudi stock in Aramco, the state-owned company that is the
world's largest oil producer and one of the most valuable in the
world. The royal family has yet to decide whether the shares will be
sold exclusively to Saudis or to foreign investors as well. The
possible sale of some of royal-owned lands is also under
consideration. ...
[*] ISIS is a growing menace to the kingdom's security - internally
from disaffected young Saudi men and externally from Iraq and
Yemen.
[*] As the Shiite-Sunni contest builds up, Riyadh sees the two main
world powers, America and Russia, tilting towards the Shiite bloc of
Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah versus the Saudi-led lineup of the
United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.

With regard to the last item, which I also quoted at the beginning of
this article, there is of course a third major world power, and that's
China, and Generational Dynamics predicts that China will be very much
on the side of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in the months and years to
come. Reuters (3-Jan) and Washington Post (4-Jan) and Energy Fuse and CNBC and Debka

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, China,
William Strauss, Neil Howe, MIT's System Dynamics,
Wahhabi Salafist, Grand Mosque, al-Qaeda, Yemen, Aramco,
Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Iran, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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Post#2945 at 01-16-2016 12:25 AM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post

I'm going to take this fortuitous opportunity to give some advice to
all the people who have expressed contempt and scorn every time I've
made one of these predictions, though they themselves couldn't predict
their way out of a paper bag.
On the contrary your predictions are the logical conclusion of events (with the exception of in my opinion of Russia and China being on opposite sides) IF the government continues implementing policy without asking the American people for their consent first. Boomers in their delusional ideological fervor, refuse to govern constitutionally. Why do boomers distrust the populace so much and refuse to allow them to make their own decisions? The Boomer elite now wants Hillary occupying the white house so they can keep ramming their agenda down the world's throat.







Post#2946 at 01-16-2016 12:55 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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01-16-2016, 12:55 AM #2946
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
> On the contrary your predictions are the logical conclusion of
> events (with the exception of in my opinion of Russia and China
> being on opposite sides) IF the government continues implementing
> policy without asking the American people for their consent
> first. Boomers in their delusional ideological fervor, refuse to
> govern constitutionally. Why do boomers distrust the populace so
> much and refuse to allow them to make their own decisions? The
> Boomer elite now wants Hillary occupying the white house so they
> can keep ramming their agenda down the world's throat.
A few days ago, I quoted Donald Trump's remarks about the North Korea
nuclear explosion and his threat to impose a 45% tariff on China's
goods in order to force them to control the North Koreans, a concept
so inane that it belongs in a Bugs Bunny comic book. I related it to
the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act of 1930.

Since then, the following has occurred:
  • I saw Trump in a tv interview saying that he didn't mean that he
    would impose the tax, only threaten it. (In other words, it was an
    empty threat, like Obama's Syria red line.)
  • During the debate, he denied ever threatening the 45% tariff,
    saying that the NY Times made the whole thing up.
  • Today, the NY Times came out with a recording of their interview
    with Trump where he clearly stated that he would impose the 45%
    tariff.


So this is a guy who has no clue what's going on in the world, and who
openly lies about things he's said, once someone on his staff tells
him how stupid they were.

You say you hate Boomers, and this guy is a Boomer, but you're in love
with him because you get a thrill when he makes loud, boisterous,
fatuous threats directed at Mexicans and Muslims. That is really
f--king screwed up.







Post#2947 at 01-16-2016 03:50 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
I'm probably demonstrating the fact that I checked out of pop culture back in 1999 but what the hell is a Snookie?
That's because you have a son and not a daughter.

Snooki is a reality star who was prominent in Jersey Shore, a reality show that was popular around 2010. She was notorious for her beehive hairdo, her tiny frame (I think she's about 4 foot 10), and getting drunk and partying.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#2948 at 01-16-2016 10:11 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
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01-16-2016, 10:11 PM #2948
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
*** 16-Jan-16 World View -- Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines
  • Saudi Arabia faces increased social unrest with sudden austerity budget


****
**** Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines
****



Saudi Arabia's Khurais oilfield (Reuters)

I want to extract one paragraph from the analyst report on Saudi
Arabia quoted at the end of this article:
<QUOTE>"As the Shiite-Sunni contest builds up, Riyadh [Saudi
Arabia] sees the two main world powers, America and Russia,
tilting towards the Shiite bloc of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah
versus the Saudi-led lineup of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt,
Turkey and Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

This is exactly the alignment that I've been predicting for years,
based on Generational Dynamics analyses, long before it seemed
possible. As I've described dozens of times, in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "allies" will be the United States,
India, Russia and Iran, while the "axis" will be China, Pakistan, and
the Sunni Muslim countries. Quite honestly, I'm as astonished as
anyone is when the generational theory analysis and predictions turn
out to be true time after time after time.

I'm going to take this fortuitous opportunity to give some advice to
all the people who have expressed contempt and scorn every time I've
made one of these predictions, though they themselves couldn't predict
their way out of a paper bag.

If you're an analyst, politician, army general, or college professor
whose job depends on knowing what's going on in the world, you would
do much better if you took the time to learn generational theory.
Generational theory was first developed in the 1980s-90s by William
Straus and Neil Howe, who showed how it applied to Britain and America
since the 1400s. Generational Dynamics extends their work to include
all nations at all times in history, and it provides a forecasting
methodology that has been almost 100% successful, as proven by
hundreds of predictions in thousands of articles since 2003.

The theory behind the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology
combines historical analysis with MIT's System Dynamics applied to
generational flows, the most significant and important application of
MIT's systems analysis found to this day. The theory also
incorporates Chaos Theory (to determine what can and cannot be
predicted), Mathematical Logic (to derive results from abstract models
of the world), Macroeconomics, Technological Forecasting and
Sociological Analysis.

If you or someone on your staff wants to master generational theory
and Generational Dynamics forecasting, the material is all on the Generational Dynamics web site, and is freely available to anyone. You can start with the
2010 paper: Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology (PDF). If you don't
take advantage of it, then your competitor might do so first.

****
**** Saudi Arabia faces increased social unrest with sudden austerity budget
****


With the price of oil now falling significantly below $30 per barrel,
and analysts expecting further plunges, the government of Saudi Arabia
is facing existential threats from several directions.

The most obvious threat is the loss of something like 75% of its
income from oil exports. This has forced the Saudi government to
adopt an "austerity budget" in 2016, cutting back massively on social
spending such as free health care, or subsidized gasoline, electricity
and other utilities.

Saudi Arabia is deep into a generational Crisis era, with its last
generational crisis war having been the Ibn Saud family's victory over
the Wahhabi Salafists that climaxed in 1925. The outcome of that war
was an uneasy peace between the two groups that allowed the Saud
family to govern but the Salafists to maintain much of the social
control in the country, including education and the "religion police."
It's rare for a country to go more than 60 or 70 years without a new
generational crisis war, and indeed as I wrote in September ( "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"
), things really came to a head in 1979 with a major
terrorist attack by a Salafist group on the Grand Mosque, shaking the
Saudi government to its core. That attack lit the fuse that led to
the creation of 9/11 and al-Qaeda and, more recently, the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The 1979 attack might have been the first step towards a new crisis
war, but the Saudi government has been able to hold off the Salafists
since 1979 by using their vast oil wealth for immense social spending
to prevent social unrest. But now, with the new "austerity budget,"
the Salafist groups are threatening the government.

When the Saudis executed 47 "terrorists" earlier this month, the
government talked about protecting its security. As one
pro-government cleric tweeted, the executions were "a message to the
world and to criminals that there will be no snuffing out of our
principles and no complacency in our security."

However, one of the 47 was a Shia cleric Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr,
and his execution inflamed Iran, as well as Shias in Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, and Pakistan. After Iranians firebombed the Saudi embassy in
Tehran, the two countries severed diplomatic relations. ( "4-Jan-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region"
) So the Saudi government is facing social unrest
from both Sunni Salafists and Shias.

Saudi Arabia's new King, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, rose to power
in January 2015, almost exactly a year ago, after the death of King
Abdullah, and there are concerns about a power struggle and possible
coup.

Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) says
there is a risk of a coup because of strong opposition to some of
Salman's policies:

[list=1][*] The Yemen civil war initiated by the defense minister has
reached a stalemate despite Saudi military intervention. The failure
to break through to victory has seriously weakened his position and
that of his father, King Salman.[*] The Yemen war is costing the Saudi exchequer an astronomical $1
billion per month, equal to a whole year's outlay for the Russian
intervention in Syria. With oil prices plummeting to below $30 dollars
per barrel, Riyadh has had to dip deep into its reserves. In 2015, the
Saudis drew some $90-98 billion out, $600 billion total. The oil
kingdom, with little experience of having to count pennies, is aghast
at its new situation.[*] The king's son is drafting a crisis plan for the sale of some 5
percent of Saudi stock in Aramco, the state-owned company that is the
world's largest oil producer and one of the most valuable in the
world. The royal family has yet to decide whether the shares will be
sold exclusively to Saudis or to foreign investors as well. The
possible sale of some of royal-owned lands is also under
consideration. ...[*] ISIS is a growing menace to the kingdom's security - internally
from disaffected young Saudi men and externally from Iraq and
Yemen.[*] As the Shiite-Sunni contest builds up, Riyadh sees the two main
world powers, America and Russia, tilting towards the Shiite bloc of
Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah versus the Saudi-led lineup of the
United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.

With regard to the last item, which I also quoted at the beginning of
this article, there is of course a third major world power, and that's
China, and Generational Dynamics predicts that China will be very much
on the side of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in the months and years to
come. Reuters (3-Jan) and Washington Post (4-Jan) and Energy Fuse and CNBC and Debka

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, China,
William Strauss, Neil Howe, MIT's System Dynamics,
Wahhabi Salafist, Grand Mosque, al-Qaeda, Yemen, Aramco,
Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Iran, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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I'm not so sure that this prediction will hold--until maybe late in the 4T. There is still a huge amount of 3T disruptive competition between Russia and the US with China aligning with Russia. The US is wooing Iran but with a track record of years of meddling in Iranian domestic affairs to live down, the US does not seem to be budging Iran away from it's alignment with Russia and China. Iran is still on track to join SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) as a full member this June. Russia did what it had to do to counter Obama's rapproachment with Iran by doubling down on support for the Iranian backed Syrian Regime. Iran permits Russian overflights to supply it's presence in Syria.
In the meantime, the US stupidly has continued the attempt to pressure Russia into accepting a subordinate position in it's world order that began with the Maidan (Coup or Revolution depending on one's point of view). The Neo-Cons literally have been driving Russia and China into each others arms. With the New Silk Road road, rail, and half completed high speed rail links across Asia, the alliance of SCO is being given concrete logistical strength.
While the US is losing Saudi Arabia, both as an ally and possibly the kingdom itself may be overthrown. And ISIS is moving to northern Africa with Turkey's connivance where it's effort to set up a Caliphate may be unstoppable and uncontainable between the Mediterranean and a line of Christian nations in Africa. There just aren't enough strong states in the region that can spare the effort to take on ISIS in Libya (and have their own populations to keep under control if they can) and the Sahara, with it's adjacent Mahgreb and Sahel is the size of the continental US--too large for the US to police even with it's vaunted airpower and surveillance capabilities and with too many people for the West to handle counterinsurgency in with it's existing militaries. The US needs REAL allies at this point in the generational and secular Wallerstein Cycle with REAL military capabilities and does not have them because it discouraged European nations and Japan from rearming to the extent the US did because it feared renewal of European wars.







Post#2949 at 01-17-2016 12:11 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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01-17-2016, 12:11 AM #2949
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17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic election

*** 17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election
  • Pop star's Taiwan flag incident illustrates how tense relations are


****
**** Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election
****



Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's new president (Reuters)

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen
won an overwhelming victory in elections on Saturday. Although the
DPP has won elections before, previous victories have never been as
large and decisive as this one.

The last time the DPP was in power, relations with mainland China were
extremely tumultuous. In 2005, China passed an "Anti-Secession Law"
that stated that China will take military action in response to
anything that even hints at independence:

<QUOTE>"Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan
independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by
any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or
that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China
should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful re-unification
should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ
non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's
sovereignty and territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>

Passage of this law in China in 2005 provoked massive riots and and
anti-China demonstrations in Taiwan.

For the last few years, Taiwan has been governed by the pro-China
Kuomintang (KMT) party, which favors the "one China" principle and
unification with mainland China, and which has fully supported all of
China's claims in the South China Sea.

The KMT and DPP parties represent major generational differences.
Originally, the KMT members were refugees from China's civil war
(1934-49), Mao's Communist Revolution. Today, the civil war survivors
have almost all died off, but the members of the KMT party are
typically from older generations, children of survivors. The DPP came
to power after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing was
viewed in horror by college students in Taiwan, who decided that they
didn't want to be any part of China.

So now that the DPP is back in power, Taiwan-China relations are sure
to become extremely rocky again.

In her victory speech on Saturday, Tsai said the following:

<QUOTE>"The results today tell me the people want to see a
government that is willing to listen to the people, that is more
transparent and accountable and a government that is more capable
of leading us past our current challenges and taking care of those
in need."<END QUOTE>

This seems like the kind of innocuous thing that any politician would
say, but in the phrase "is willing to listen to the people" is a huge
red flag for the Communist government in Beijing, which sees listening
to the people to be a major evil, whether in Tiananmen Square, in Hong
Kong, or in Taiwan.

It's a particular problem in Taiwan because, as the years go by, "the
people" are becoming increasingly in favor of independence. When
people are asked whether they consider themselves to be "Chinese or
Taiwanese," the KMT members mostly say "Chinese." But the younger
generations that form the DPP, and who are extremely distant in time
from the days of Mao's revolution, are much more willing to call
themselves "Taiwanese."

When the DPP were last in power, the pro-independence line was
aggressively pursued. But Tsai has promised a more balanced approach,
by maintaining the "status quo." Indeed, 70% of Taiwan's population
support the status quo, according to a poll.

The "status quo" means that Taiwan rules itself without official
independence, and will no intention of becoming part of China. China
has indicated that this will be OK for the time being, but not
forever.

China had once hoped that improving commercial ties and relations
would make the Taiwanese people want to be part of China peacefully.
This is exactly what China tried with the outgoing KMT government, but
it's obviously failed. How long China will keep trying before
striking militarily remains to be seen. Focus Taiwan and
BBC (14-Mar-2005) and CS Monitor and BBC

****
**** Pop star's Taiwan flag incident illustrates how tense relations are
****



Chou Tzu-yu, 16, in publicity photo (L) and apologizing on Friday (R)

Sixteen-year-old Taiwanese pop singer Chou Tzu-yu is part of the
Korean pop (K-pop) band Twice. In a November broadcast, she held up a
Taiwan flag. The incident might never have surface, except that
another singer Huang An, who is Taiwanese but who has lived in China
for many years. Huang apparently is on a crusade to "out" any
Taiwanese performer who favors independence from China.

Once Chou was "outed," retribution was swift. Chou's endorsement deal
with China's Huawei Technologies Co. was canceled, and Chou had to
cancel all appearances in China to allow for a period of "reflection."

On Friday, the evening before Saturday's election, a YouTube video
appeared with a 90 second apology from Chou Tzu-yu. Reading from a
prepared text with her voice shaking, she said:

<QUOTE>"There is only one China... I have always felt proud
of being a Chinese.

As a Chinese person my improper words and behavior during my
activities abroad hurt my company and the feelings of netizens
across the strait. ...

I have decided to stop my activities in China for now to seriously
reflect on myself."<END QUOTE>

When the apology appeared, Huang An, who has outed Chou, gloated:

<QUOTE>"We have won back a good child who identifies with the
motherland. It is yet another major achievement in the people of
the motherland's fight against Taiwan independence."<END QUOTE>

Almost without exception, commentators in Taiwan believe that she Chou
was forced by her management company to make the apology. The video
instantly went viral, and infuriated Taiwanese people. It's believed
that the video increased turnout in Saturday's election, and is part
of the reason for DDP's overwhelming victory.

Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) issued a statement on
Saturday:

<QUOTE>"It is absolutely fair and justified for a Taiwanese
person to hold a national flag to show his or her love for the
country, and we support such a patriotic act."<END QUOTE>

Focus Taiwan and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party,
Anti-Secession Law, Chou Tzu-yu, Huang An,
Mainland Affairs Council, MAC

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Post#2950 at 01-17-2016 10:14 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
A few days ago, I quoted Donald Trump's remarks about the North Korea
nuclear explosion and his threat to impose a 45% tariff on China's
goods in order to force them to control the North Koreans, a concept
so inane that it belongs in a Bugs Bunny comic book. I related it to
the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act of 1930.

Since then, the following has occurred:
  • I saw Trump in a tv interview saying that he didn't mean that he
    would impose the tax, only threaten it. (In other words, it was an
    empty threat, like Obama's Syria red line.)
  • During the debate, he denied ever threatening the 45% tariff,
    saying that the NY Times made the whole thing up.
  • Today, the NY Times came out with a recording of their interview
    with Trump where he clearly stated that he would impose the 45%
    tariff.


So this is a guy who has no clue what's going on in the world, and who
openly lies about things he's said, once someone on his staff tells
him how stupid they were.

You say you hate Boomers, and this guy is a Boomer, but you're in love
with him because you get a thrill when he makes loud, boisterous,
fatuous threats directed at Mexicans and Muslims. That is really
f--king screwed up.
We WOULD be much better off if we ruled by fear rather than the cooperation of the past 25 years. Events since 9/11 in the Mideast, Eastern Europe and in the Pacific have shown that globalist cooperation just does not work. Policy should be based on pragmatic expediencies not boomer ideological delusions.
Last edited by Cynic Hero '86; 01-17-2016 at 10:22 PM.
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