To Ragnarök_62:
Someone on Breitbart posted the following comment to my
article:
He seems to be saying that I got everything wrong. Is he right?> The writer of this story is a total idiot. Ragnarok hasn't
> happened. Ragnarok includes the total destruction of midgard
> better known as earth.
> http://www.breitbart.com/national-se...ent-2476200931
Moldova is merely the part of Romania that was carved off by the Soviet Union and subsequently Sovietized. Romania / NATO should simply invade it and attach it back to Romania. Russian / Soviet agents would then all be deported to "The Motherland" - problem solved.Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
*** 26-Jan-16 World View -- Mass protests force Moldova to choose between Europe and Russia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Mass protests force Moldova to choose between Europe and Russia
- Moldova crisis presents opportunities and dangers for Russia
****
**** Mass protests force Moldova to choose between Europe and Russia
****
Hundreds of protesters broke through police lines on Wednesday to get into Moldova's parliament on January 20 (Reuters)
Months of anti-government protests in Chisinau, the capital city of
Moldova, reached a head last week on Wednesday, when tens of thousands
of stormed the parliament building, and police began using tear gas
against the protesters, resulting in dozens of injuries. This mass
riot was triggered by parliament's approval Pavel Filip to be prime
minister. The protesters chanted "We Are the People" and "We Want our
Country Back" and "Down with the mafia" in both Romanian and Russian,
and demanded that the president, prime minister, and parliament all
resign, and new elections be called.
Protesters are demanding the investigation of the “theft of the
century” – the disappearance of an incredible $1.5 billion, 15% of the
country's GDP, from three national banks ahead of the parliamentary
election of 2014. The money was discovered to be missing a year ago,
in January 2015. The prime minister Vlad Filad was arrested on
corruption charges, and the parliament appointed a successor, Valeriu
Strelet. In October, Strelet was dismissed in a no-confidence vote,
and Moldova has had no government until Wednesday of last week, when
the parliament selected a new prime minister, Pavel Filip.
There are two major ideologies in Moldova, the pro-Europe side and the
pro-Russia side. Since 2009, the pro-Europe side has governed, but
since the corruption scandal broke a year ago, voters have become
increasingly disgusted with all sides.
The prime minister selected last week, Pavel Filip, is still nominally
on the pro-Europe side, Filip is thought by many to be under the
control of billionaire Vladimir Plahotniuc. As a result, both
pro-Europe and pro-Russia protesters temporarily put aside their
differences and turned against Filip after he was selected last week.
If there are new elections in the near future, it's expected that the
pro-Russia side will win in the parliament, which will then select a
pro-Russia prime minister. However, Filip, and Plahotniuc behind him,
are resisting that outcome.
Filip himself is making the usual claim of politicians in power by
saying that his stepping down could harm the country:<QUOTE>"We could find ourselves in a deep economic and social
crisis. It's possible that Moldova wouldn't be able to pay
salaries and pensions for four months."<END QUOTE>
Adrian Candu, the speaker of parliament, says that there's no legal
way to call elections now, and adds:<QUOTE>"The current government and parliamentary majority
really has to show results in days and weeks. We are counting on
the first 100 days of the government to show actions and
results. The time for nice messages is over."<END QUOTE>
However, both pro-Europe and pro-Russia groups accuse Filip and
Plahotniuc of holding on to power in order to hide their corruption.
Many observers don't believe that the new government will have even
100 days before widespread riots begin, perhaps modeled after the
Maiden riots in Kiev, the capital city of Ukraine, in 2013-2014,
leading to a major European and Russian crisis. BBC and Irish Times and Jamestown
****
**** Moldova crisis presents opportunities and dangers for Russia
****
Map of Moldova highlighting Transdniestria / Transnistria province (Economist)
Moldova is a small country squeezed between Ukraine and Romania. A
strip of land on Moldova's border with Ukraine is the province of
Transnistria. Polls in Transnistria indicate that people there would
like to secede from Moldova and join the Russian Federation, in the
same way that happened to Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. In fact, when
Russia was in the process of invading Ukraine in 2014, leading to the
annexation of Crimea, it was widely believed that Russia's invasion
would continue on to the port of Odessa and then on to link up with
the secessionist Transnistria province of Moldova.
That never happened, as the Russians became bogged down in East
Ukraine, and the Russian economy was beset by Western sanctions and
then by crashing oil prices. And now with Russia's military adventure
into Syria, Russia is stretched too thin to revive a large military
incursion into western Ukraine.
Now there's a new opportunity for Russia. If there are new elections
in Moldova, and if, as expected, the pro-Russia factions win, then
Russia will have a political change of government that will gives it
influence of Moldova without the cost of a military invasion.
If pro-Russia forces come to power in Moldova, it would be a big
public relations coup. Furthermore, such a victory would help settle
the Transnistria issue, by unifying the secessionist province with the
Moldovan government so that they're all pro-Russia.
However, such a victory would be a mixed blessing for Russia, as it
would trigger other problems, according to Russian journalist and
political analyst Gevorg Mirzayan. In these days of sanctions and
counter-sanctions, both Ukraine and Romania would act harshly to
pro-Russian forces in Moldova.<QUOTE>"[Ukraine's] reaction to pro-Russian forces in
Chisinau would not be difficult to guess – a sharp hardening of
relations and an economic blockade of Moldova from the east would
be almost inevitable.
As for Romania, here too there are several possible negative
scenarios. It's doubtful that the EU will simply close its eyes on
Moldova's demonstrative return to the Russian orbit, and using a
deterioration of the socio-economic situation, they would attempt
to convince Moldovans that they have made the wrong choice.
As a result, Moscow, which already has its hands full, will have
to analyze all the options for supporting a pro-Russian government
in Chisinau."<END QUOTE>
Mirzayan points out that if the pro-Europe factions continue to
discredit themselves, especially following the corruption scandals,
then the pro-Russia opposition will become stronger in the long run.
Global Risk Insights (2015-Nov-10) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Global Research
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Moldova, Chisinau, Europe, Russia,
Vlad Filad, Valeriu Strelet, Pavel Filip, Vladimir Plahotniuc,
Adrian Candu, Transdniestria, Transnistria, Ukraine, Crimea,
Romania, Gevorg Mirzayan
Permanent web link to this article
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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
27-Jan-16 World View -- India deploying 'submarine killer' planes to counter China
*** 27-Jan-16 World View -- India deploying 'submarine killer' planes to counter China's submarines
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- India deploying 'submarine killer' planes to counter China's submarines
- India to build satellite tracking station in southern Vietnam
- China demolishes Southern Mongolian herders' homes in mid-winter
****
**** India deploying 'submarine killer' planes to counter China's submarines
****
China commercial and military route through Malacca strait
As China continues to deploy new missile systems that can target any
part of the United States with nuclear weapons, and submarines that
can target any part of the trade routes from China, through the South
China Sea, and into the Indian Ocean, India is preparing to defend its
Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal.
India has detected Chinese naval ships coming close to the territorial
waters of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The Chinese ships attempt
to get close at least twice every three months. India is concerned
that the islands are mostly undefended, and a lightning attack by the
Chinese would be successful.
In response, India is deploying eight P-8I aircraft, obtained from
Boeing under a 2009 deal with the United States. The aircraft will be
stationed at the southern tip of mainland India in Tamil Nadu. They
will serve as reconnaissance aircraft, and also will be equipped with
missiles capable of neutralizing enemy submarines and warships.
According to Indian media:
<QUOTE>"It's not uncommon for Chinese naval vessels to get
close to the 10 degree channel, which is a 150km-wide channel that
separates the Andaman and Nicobar chain of islands. Officers feel
that the Chinese may choose the Andamans for a sudden strike
instead of the mainland. After all, the Chinese know that India
has an upper hand for the first 7-8 days due to her advanced air
assets if an attack is launched on the mainland.
Things would change after that due to attrition and other factors
but no armed conflict between two nuclear powers like India and
China is expected to last more than a week before the
international community intervenes.
"The only place where the Chinese can strike without facing any
real opposition, merely to bother India, is the Andamans. After
all, our assets on the mainland can't remain at a top level of
preparedness for an indefinite period every time a Chinese warship
is detected close to the islands. Capabilities of the assets from
the mainland will also be hampered by bad weather and other
factors. The Chinese will also factor these in if they choose to
strike. The Chinese presence on Coco Islands continues to remain a
matter of concern. The length of runway there has been increased
to 8,000 feet. When it becomes 10,000 feet, all kinds of aircraft
can land there and we will have a full-fledged Chinese base some
30-odd miles from the Andamans," the officer added."<END QUOTE>
The Coco islands are north of the Andaman islands. They belong to
Burma (Myanmar), but are believed to be under control of the Chinese.
Lowy Institute (Australia) and The Diplomat and Times of India and The Diplomat (19-Dec-2015) and Washington Free Beacon (11-Dec-2015)
****
**** India to build satellite tracking station in southern Vietnam
****
India and Vietnam continue to enhance their military relationship to
counter China's military belligerence in the South China Sea, where it
it annexing regions historically belonging to other countries,
including Vietnam and the Philippines.
India is building a satellite tracking and imaging center in southern
Vietnam. Although it's billed as a civilian facility for
agricultural, scientific and environmental applications, the improved
imaging technology means the pictures could also be used for military
purposes for both countries. India Times / Reuters
****
**** China demolishes Southern Mongolian herders' homes in mid-winter
****
Despite police in China's Southern (Inner) Mongolia arresting herders
for contacting "overseas news media," news is leaking out the Chinese
authorities are driving Mongolian herders out of their homes and
demolishing their homes in the middle of winter. According to the
activist organization, Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information
Center (SMHRIC), at least 160,000 ethnic Mongolians have been forcibly
evicted from traditional grazing lands in recent decades.
China's government has announced long-term plans to move all
traditional nomadic groups into permanent, urban dwellings, to make
the grasslands available for other purposes, such as mining.
In 2008, local authorities implemented a ban on livestock grazing, and
promised to pay subsidies to the Mongolian herders as compensation.
However, the herders say that the subsidies stopped six months ago
without notice.
In May of last year, and again in December, and again last week,
hundreds of Mongolian herders have staged protests at government
buildings and military bases. Early in January, Chinese officials
arrived without notice and started evicting people and demolishing
their homes.
Starting this week, local police authorities began arresting dozens of
herders for contacting “overseas news media and hostile forces” and
“engaging in national separatism." Many other herders received
threatening phone calls from the local police authorities warning them
not to contact any foreign news media or overseas organizations.
Communist China has a history of brutal treatment of minorities,
including the slaughter of thousands of Tibetans in Tibet and Uighurs
in Xinjiang. Radio Free Asia and Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center (SMHRIC)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, China, South China Sea, Indian Ocean,
Andaman Islands, Nicobar Islands, Bay of Bengal, P-8I,
Coco Islands, Burma, Myanmar, Vietnam,
Southern Mongolia, Inner Mongolia,
Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center, SMHRIC,
Tibet, Xinjiang
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Yes, I stand corrected.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
Let's see if I can clarify this. The old Nordic tribal eddas describe 9 worlds, one of which is midgard which roughly translates to "middle earth". Note that "earth" is not a planet in their line of thinking since they didn't know of such things. Now, midgard is the world of the humans. I think the poster is focusing on the literal meaning of
Ragnarök. WW III would be something that would fit his/her understanding. The term can always be used in a looser sense, like financial Ragnarök where a country's financial system collapses and gets replaced. Zimbabwe has had that occur. I use it as a rough translation of a 4T because the old order according to S&H dies and a new order arises from the ashes. The edda for Ragnarök is also a tragedy because the gods know it will happen, but can't stop it. I think the most valid time for actual Ragnarök is when the sun becomes a red giant. The question is if the earth gets absorbed or not.
Here's a good link for getting Ragnarok right.
http://www.viking-mythology.com/ragnarok.php
HTH
--Rags
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
http://www.wired.com/2016/01/reviewi...umsfeld-might/
28-Jan-16 World View -- China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software
*** 28-Jan-16 World View -- China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software, bringing the Singularity closer
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software program AlphaGo
- Google DeepMind's Go algorithm uses massive pattern matching neural networks
- Google's AI technology will soon start taking people's jobs
****
**** China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software program AlphaGo
****
Two pattern recognition problems. Top: Find the best move in a Go position. Bottom: Find the clock in the room.
Google's artificial intelligence (AI) division, DeepMind, announced
that it has developed a software program called AlphaGo that can beat
human masters at the ancient Chinese game of Go.
This is considered a significant milestone in AI because the game of
Go is massively more complex than the game of chess, which was
conquered by computers in the 1990s. It's also significant because it
brings the world one step closer to the Singularity, the point in time
where computers are more intelligent than humans.
The game of Go is thought to have originated in China 3000-4000 years
ago. It's the oldest game that's still played in its original form.
Today, it's popular throughout Asia, and it's played to a lesser
extent in Europe and America.
Players take turns alternately placing white and black stones on a
19x19 board. If your stones completely surround your opponent's
stones, then you've captured his stones, and you've gained territory.
But if you're too ambitious and overreach by trying to capture too
much territory, then your opponent can turn the table and surround
your stones. The best players, who have been playing for decades,
develop an intuition that allows to play unexpected moves that permit
a group of stones at one end of the board to link up with stones at
the other end.
The two pictures above show two different "pattern recognition"
problems. The top picture shows a typical Go position. There
are too many possibilities for someone to use simple reasoning
to find the best move. Instead, a master who's played hundreds of
thousands of games over decades will recognize patterns from
previous games that show what the best move is.
The bottom picture is of an ordinary furnished room, and the
problem is to find the clock. Almost anyone can find the
clock immediately, because over the years you've seen perhaps
millions of clocks, and your brain can do the necessary pattern
recognition to find the clock instantly.
This kind of pattern recognition has been extremely difficult for
computer software to master, because the computer would have to create
a database storing perhaps trillions or quadrillions or quintillions
of pictures, and then the software has to be able to compare the
picture or the game position to all those pictures stored in the
database.
Amazingly, the human mind is pretty good at that, because it can store
huge numbers of images and then do many comparisons in parallel. But
in the past, computers did not have enough memory for such a large
database, and did not have enough computing power to do all those
comparisons. But as computers have become more and more powerful,
doubling in power every 18 months or so, huge pattern matching
applications have become more feasible, and this has led to the
implementation of a winning Go-playing computer program AlphaGo.
American Go Association and MIT Technology Review
****
**** Google DeepMind's Go algorithm uses massive pattern matching neural networks
****
As I described in my article "Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030",
the human brain uses two kinds of problem solving methods.
One is illustrated by the bottom picture above, where the brain
uses massive pattern matching to quickly find the clock in the
picture.
The other is ordinary step-by-step reasoning, where you think "If I do
A then B will happen, and I can do C." The game of chess was solved
using computer software that does this kind of reasoning, employing
something called a "minimax algorithm" that was invented in the 1960s.
The minimax algorithm works the same way that an ordinary person plays
chess. You think, "If I make move A then he'll make move B and I can
make move C, but if I make move X they he'll be forced to play move Y
and I'll win." Chess-playing programs do the same thing, and can
examine millions of positions in this way, evaluating them to decide
what the next move should be.
The minimax algorithm requires that you have a simple way to
evaluate a chess position numerically. A good chess playing program
can evaluate any position by adding together numbers for the
amount of material, for how much of the board is controlled, and
other factors such as King safety.
In the game of Go, no such simple numerical evaluation method exists.
There are dozens of white and black stones scattered over a 19x19
board. You could try some simple method of counting occupied
positions, or something like that, but that would never capture the
complexity of the position.
So the AI experts at Google's DeepMind used the power of modern
computers to develop an advanced pattern matching technology. The
technology known is as "neural networks" that was developed in the
1980s because it supposedly simulates the way that networks of neurons
in the human brain perform pattern matching.
They created an enormous database of 30 million Go game positions
developed from human expert games and by allowing the computer to play
against itself for days. They developed advanced neural network
applications to perform massive numbers of comparisons of a board
position to those stored in the database. The "value networks"
perform pattern matching with the database to evaluate board
positions, and the "policy networks" perform pattern matching to
select moves.
Using this approach, they developed the AlphaGo program and tested it
against a human European Go champion, Fan Hui, winning five games to
zero.
In March, AlphaGo will play a match to be held in Seoul, South korea,
against one of the world's best players, Lee Sedol. 9 To 5 Google
and Nature
****
**** Google's AI technology will soon start taking people's jobs
****
As I wrote in "29-Dec-15 World View -- Artificial Intelligence breakthroughs in 2015, the Singularity by 2030"
, the year 2015 saw many major achievements in
artificial intelligence, and the Google's AlphaGo technology
continues that trend.
What's interesting is that as recently as 2014, most experts thought
that for a computer program to play Go at a master level was at least
a decade away, and possibly several decades. This illustrates how
many people in the computer field underestimate how rapidly computer
AI is improving, and how quickly the Singularity is arriving.
As I wrote in the article referenced above, I estimated in 2004 that
the Singularity would occur around 2030, and I have no reason today to
change that estimate. However, people tell me all the time that
computers won't be as smart as humans for many decades, even
centuries, because we don't yet understand enough about the human
brain. However, this misses the point. Humans are smarter than apes
even though we don't understand apes' brains, and computers will
become more intelligent than humans by using technologies that don't
require understanding the human brain.
In fact, we're going to start seeing rapid changes well before 2030.
According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, AI is take
away 5 million jobs from humans in the next five years.
Jobs that are most at risk of this transition to artificial
intelligence are in administrative and office divisions, so much so
that some jobs today are already being replaced by mobile apps and
algorithms linked to the internet. For instance, a website may offer
finding better hotel deals than a travel agent, or a mobile
application can help you learn better Mandarin or French than a
personal instructor. Other sectors that are also at risk are
manufacturing, construction, health care, and even the arts and
entertainment.
And it's my personal estimate that AI will replace most computer
programmers' jobs within the next five to ten years. Wired (12-May-2014) and StGist
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Google, artificial intelligence, AI, DeepMind,
AlphaGo, Singularity, minimax algorithm, neural networks,
value networks, policy networks, Fan Hui, Lee Sedol
Permanent web link to this article
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https://youtu.be/oKmyB1q3H68
http://philosopherswheel.com/predictions.html
You know my handle is a take off on "Eric the Red", right?
Yes it's happening. It won't bust the whole economy though, since low oil prices are still good for consumers.Uh, we're having a bust here in the oil patch at present. First, the frakking companies are all pretty much insolvent. If the price of oil stays stuck below $50/bbl they all go. Next, you have the oil service companies like Schumberger that are laying off scads of folks. That's another facet of the bust. The layoffs then affect government tax revenue and make a mess.
Like this: http://newsok.com/article/5394200 [Yeah, I know relying on oil for revenue isn't the brightest idea nor is blowing a huge wad on the department of corrections. ]
It's always good to not be invested in risky things.That's not necessary. Ragnarök will be for those who have money in overpriced stocks, overpriced houses, and "risk on" investments like junk bonds. It will also be for those who are counting on pensions which are underfunded to the point that their owners are defacto insolvent like Illinois. IOW, the bust will affect assorted known areas. It all gets back to Cheney's statement. Those are the "known knowns". Those are all done, stick a fork in them.
QE as I understand it was supplying money decreed by the Fed. I thought that the Fed lowered interest rates by deciding to lower them. I was not aware that mortgage prices went up; not above pre-crash levels anyway, did they?You answered your own question. More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing
Let's take mortgages for example. The Fed purchases mortgage instruments which makes their price go up and thus decreasing the interest rate. That is exactly how QE lowers interest rates below market equilibrium. I chose mortgages because they are further out on the yield curve than 30 day t bills. QE thus lowers interest rates on longer dated financial instruments. It's been a major fail because the lower interest rates have fueled all of those bubbles John's been discussing. Btw, it fucks over pension funds as well because the rate of return on their longer term interest bearing financial instruments has been repressed by QE. Please read the wiki article and get back with John and I. QE also fuels bubbles because bubble financial instruments like stocks get bid up as well as a side effect which makes for some really asinine PE ratios.
Just under 4% now, it appears
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mort...est-rates.aspx
But yes stocks went up for a while and may be too high. I imagine this current correction means they won't go up much more for a while. The bull market may be over until the 2020s, when the bulls will run again.
I'm just not so confident that the housing bubble will burst, or that if it does, it won't bubble right back again, no matter what the Fed does. Just my impression.The above is a known unknown. What do you think will happen to banks if the collateral value of their loans crashes? The same goes for subprime auto loans. Methinks they'll have a big headache foreclosing on underwater mortgages and repoing upside down car loans.
Car companies are not known for their intelligence, at least not US ones.Here's a blast from the past.
http://www.investors.com/gm-risky-su...ns-fuel-sales/
It looks like some people just never learn, Eric. GM got bailed out the last time around and just look what they're doing now. How fucking stupid.
They will, unless they develop another industry to sustain them.1. They've been wildly successful in busting out frakking.
2. I'll cast a Chinese curse upon them. "May the Saudis live in interesting times".
I use so called Business Intelligence tools.*** 28-Jan-16 World View -- China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software, bringing the Singularity closer
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software program AlphaGo
- Google DeepMind's Go algorithm uses massive pattern matching neural networks
- Google's AI technology will soon start taking people's jobs
****
**** China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software program AlphaGo
****
Two pattern recognition problems. Top: Find the best move in a Go position. Bottom: Find the clock in the room.
Google's artificial intelligence (AI) division, DeepMind, announced
that it has developed a software program called AlphaGo that can beat
human masters at the ancient Chinese game of Go.
This is considered a significant milestone in AI because the game of
Go is massively more complex than the game of chess, which was
conquered by computers in the 1990s. It's also significant because it
brings the world one step closer to the Singularity, the point in time
where computers are more intelligent than humans.
The game of Go is thought to have originated in China 3000-4000 years
ago. It's the oldest game that's still played in its original form.
Today, it's popular throughout Asia, and it's played to a lesser
extent in Europe and America.
Players take turns alternately placing white and black stones on a
19x19 board. If your stones completely surround your opponent's
stones, then you've captured his stones, and you've gained territory.
But if you're too ambitious and overreach by trying to capture too
much territory, then your opponent can turn the table and surround
your stones. The best players, who have been playing for decades,
develop an intuition that allows to play unexpected moves that permit
a group of stones at one end of the board to link up with stones at
the other end.
The two pictures above show two different "pattern recognition"
problems. The top picture shows a typical Go position. There
are too many possibilities for someone to use simple reasoning
to find the best move. Instead, a master who's played hundreds of
thousands of games over decades will recognize patterns from
previous games that show what the best move is.
The bottom picture is of an ordinary furnished room, and the
problem is to find the clock. Almost anyone can find the
clock immediately, because over the years you've seen perhaps
millions of clocks, and your brain can do the necessary pattern
recognition to find the clock instantly.
This kind of pattern recognition has been extremely difficult for
computer software to master, because the computer would have to create
a database storing perhaps trillions or quadrillions or quintillions
of pictures, and then the software has to be able to compare the
picture or the game position to all those pictures stored in the
database.
Amazingly, the human mind is pretty good at that, because it can store
huge numbers of images and then do many comparisons in parallel. But
in the past, computers did not have enough memory for such a large
database, and did not have enough computing power to do all those
comparisons. But as computers have become more and more powerful,
doubling in power every 18 months or so, huge pattern matching
applications have become more feasible, and this has led to the
implementation of a winning Go-playing computer program AlphaGo.
American Go Association and MIT Technology Review
****
**** Google DeepMind's Go algorithm uses massive pattern matching neural networks
****
As I described in my article "Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030",
the human brain uses two kinds of problem solving methods.
One is illustrated by the bottom picture above, where the brain
uses massive pattern matching to quickly find the clock in the
picture.
The other is ordinary step-by-step reasoning, where you think "If I do
A then B will happen, and I can do C." The game of chess was solved
using computer software that does this kind of reasoning, employing
something called a "minimax algorithm" that was invented in the 1960s.
The minimax algorithm works the same way that an ordinary person plays
chess. You think, "If I make move A then he'll make move B and I can
make move C, but if I make move X they he'll be forced to play move Y
and I'll win." Chess-playing programs do the same thing, and can
examine millions of positions in this way, evaluating them to decide
what the next move should be.
The minimax algorithm requires that you have a simple way to
evaluate a chess position numerically. A good chess playing program
can evaluate any position by adding together numbers for the
amount of material, for how much of the board is controlled, and
other factors such as King safety.
In the game of Go, no such simple numerical evaluation method exists.
There are dozens of white and black stones scattered over a 19x19
board. You could try some simple method of counting occupied
positions, or something like that, but that would never capture the
complexity of the position.
So the AI experts at Google's DeepMind used the power of modern
computers to develop an advanced pattern matching technology. The
technology known is as "neural networks" that was developed in the
1980s because it supposedly simulates the way that networks of neurons
in the human brain perform pattern matching.
They created an enormous database of 30 million Go game positions
developed from human expert games and by allowing the computer to play
against itself for days. They developed advanced neural network
applications to perform massive numbers of comparisons of a board
position to those stored in the database. The "value networks"
perform pattern matching with the database to evaluate board
positions, and the "policy networks" perform pattern matching to
select moves.
Using this approach, they developed the AlphaGo program and tested it
against a human European Go champion, Fan Hui, winning five games to
zero.
In March, AlphaGo will play a match to be held in Seoul, South korea,
against one of the world's best players, Lee Sedol. 9 To 5 Google
and Nature
****
**** Google's AI technology will soon start taking people's jobs
****
As I wrote in "29-Dec-15 World View -- Artificial Intelligence breakthroughs in 2015, the Singularity by 2030"
, the year 2015 saw many major achievements in
artificial intelligence, and the Google's AlphaGo technology
continues that trend.
What's interesting is that as recently as 2014, most experts thought
that for a computer program to play Go at a master level was at least
a decade away, and possibly several decades. This illustrates how
many people in the computer field underestimate how rapidly computer
AI is improving, and how quickly the Singularity is arriving.
As I wrote in the article referenced above, I estimated in 2004 that
the Singularity would occur around 2030, and I have no reason today to
change that estimate. However, people tell me all the time that
computers won't be as smart as humans for many decades, even
centuries, because we don't yet understand enough about the human
brain. However, this misses the point. Humans are smarter than apes
even though we don't understand apes' brains, and computers will
become more intelligent than humans by using technologies that don't
require understanding the human brain.
In fact, we're going to start seeing rapid changes well before 2030.
According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, AI is take
away 5 million jobs from humans in the next five years.
Jobs that are most at risk of this transition to artificial
intelligence are in administrative and office divisions, so much so
that some jobs today are already being replaced by mobile apps and
algorithms linked to the internet. For instance, a website may offer
finding better hotel deals than a travel agent, or a mobile
application can help you learn better Mandarin or French than a
personal instructor. Other sectors that are also at risk are
manufacturing, construction, health care, and even the arts and
entertainment.
And it's my personal estimate that AI will replace most computer
programmers' jobs within the next five to ten years. Wired (12-May-2014) and StGist
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Google, artificial intelligence, AI, DeepMind,
AlphaGo, Singularity, minimax algorithm, neural networks,
value networks, policy networks, Fan Hui, Lee Sedol
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They are pretty good for doing a more targeted data pull.
However I find that I still end up slogging through spreadsheets.
So called AI may be able to drive cars, play GO or find a clock in a room. So there looks to be a limited set of things where we can deploy it.
However, for general work, which typically means, lots of firefights and dealing with Black Swan events, I'm just not seeing it. In order to generalize AI there would still need to be apps created which incorporate it which means lots and lots of coding. Lengthy development cycle, and a maintainability nightmare, for such an extensive body of code. By the time it gets released the original problem was already solved by me slogging through it the old fashioned way.
Humans are generalists. Some of us also specialize, but that's far less important to what makes us intelligent. All of us can do a myriad of things that machines find impossible or extremely hard. So far, no machine has gained the ability to draw on unrelated experiences to solve problems it has never encountered in the past. We humans do that all the time. When machines can make those bridges, the Singularity will be here.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
True.
Machines lack true creativity and would find it enormously difficult to innovate.
Although there was a famous book titled "Soul of a New Machine" in reality machines have no soul. That is the nub of the problem and it is similar to trying to travel at the speed of light. The difficulty of getting there is exponentially increasing the closer you get to the goal.
29-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France, Italy continue plans for Libya invasion
*** 29-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France, Italy continue plans for Libya invasion against ISIS
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia builds military presence in Dagestan after ISIS attack
- US, Britain, France, Italy continue plans for Libya invasion against ISIS
****
**** Russia builds military presence in Dagestan after ISIS attack
****
In Russia's 5,000 year old city of Derbent, the Citadel was built by a Persian tsar in the sixth century.
Russia is increasing its military presence and conducting large
counter-terrorism military exercises in the south of its North
Caucasus province of Dagestan in southern Russia.
The military exercises were triggered by a December 29 Islamist
insurgency gun attack at the Derbent citadel, a Unesco World Heritage
site and big tourist attraction. A group called "warriors of the
Caliphate", affiliated with so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), claimed responsibility for the attack.
The insurgents opened fire on a group of tourists accompanied by two
border guards from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) on the
citadel's viewing platform. One border guard was killed, and eleven
others were injured.
At least 120 people were killed by insurgents in the Derbent region
last year. Since this was the second shooting in the Derbent area in
the past three weeks, it is clear that a local cell of the armed
underground movement was involved. The insurgent cell is apparently
targeting the police and FSB (Federal Security Service) in that part
of Dagestan. After both attacks, the militants managed to escape
unharmed.
Russia's media is playing down the ISIS connection. Russia also
attempted to do that after an ISIS affiliate brought down a Russian
Metrojet Airbus A321 airliner over Egypt in November. As we wrote in
"5-Nov-15 World View -- Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy"
, the
Russian military intervention in Syria is inflaming Sunni Salafists
and jihadists, who have been threatening to increase their attacks on
Russian targets as a result.
The reasons is that the injection of Orthodox Christian Russian troops
in Syria is reviving the memory of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
in the 1980s, which Salafists saw as a Christian invasion of a Muslim
country. It brought the rise of modern Sunni jihadist movements,
including the leadership of Osama bin Laden and the formation of
al-Qaeda, so the invasion runs very deep in the psyches of Sunni
Salafists and jihadists. Russia's new intervention targeting mostly
Sunni Muslims in Syria, appears to be a repeat.
With ISIS now claiming credit for terrorist attacks in Dagestan,
Russian officials have to deal with new problems. More and more
Russians are questioning the wisdom of the Syria intervention. Many
reports indicate that Russian soldiers do not wish to fight there.
Reports of ISIS attacks on Russian airliners and tourist locations
will only turn public opinion against the Syria intervention.
Tass (Moscow, 30-Dec-2015) and Telegraph (London) and Jamestown and Tass (Moscow)
****
**** US, Britain, France, Italy continue plans for Libya invasion against ISIS
****
Officials from the US, Britain and France are becoming increasingly
alarmed at the growing strength of the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya, which already controls a long strip
of coastline around the city of Sirte, has used heavy weapons to
launch attacks against a series of oil facilities.
The US has already sent a group of special forces to Libya, and plans
are continuing for a Western invasion of Libya, as we reported three
weeks ago ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016"
). The military offensive is planned for around the
beginning of March.
Libya now has two rival governments. One of them is in the far west
in the capital city Tripoli, and the other is in the far east in
Tobruk. Both governments signed off in December on a UN-backed "peace
plan" to establish a single unity government that could lead a
military push against ISIS.
However, earlier this week, the Tobruk government, which is the
government that's internationally recognized, announced that it was
rejecting the UN plan.
A precondition for the Western military intervention is implementation
of the unity government plan, and an endorsement of Western military
intervention by that unity government, so that the invasion won't be
seen as yet another Christian invasion of a Muslim country.
But with ISIS stepping up attacks throughout the country, Italy's
Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti said in an interview that the West is
prepared to intervene militarily even if Libya fails to agree on a
unified government. According to Pinotti:
<QUOTE>"We cannot imagine the situation in Libya remaining in
a stall as spring comes and goes.
In the past month, we have worked more diligently with Americans,
British and French. I wouldn't call it an acceleration, and it's
certainly not unilateral. We are all agreed that we must avoid
uncoordinated action."<END QUOTE>
According to Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook, "We're looking at military
options." Reuters and Gulf News and Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Dagestan, Derbent Citadel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Metrojet Airbus A321 airliner, Syria, Osama bin Laden,
Libya, Britain, France, Italy, Tripoli, Tobruk,
Roberta Pinotti, Peter Cook
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I'm sorry, this just isn't true. I covered this extensively in my
2004 article that I recently reposted:
** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...rity151228.htm
In that article, I gave two examples of human creativity - the
invention of the light bulb and the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem. I
described the algorithms that would be used to produce that kind of
creativity in computers.
This is an important point. People tell me, "We don't have the
vaguest idea how to program a computer to be as intelligent
and creative as humans."
The fact is, we know exactly how to do it. The algorithms are
already well known. In my article referenced above, I wrote
a lengthy description of the algorithms.
The only thing we're waiting for is for computers to be powerful
enough to execute the algorithm in "real time." The interesting thing
is that we can debate about the date of the Singularity -- 2030, 2040,
2050, 2100, etc. -- as if it were some mystical thing. But in fact,
computer scientists could nail down the date fairly precisely just by
applying Moore's Law to determine when computers will be powerful
enough to execute my algorithm or a similar algorithm, and that will
determine the date.
And talk about creativity. The computer playing Google's AlphaGo
program is being extremely creative, within the domain of playing Go.
The advanced use of neural networks for decision-making can
be applied to any sort of "human" decision-making process.
As I said, we already know the algorithms for how to do it. All we
have to do is wait until computers are powerful enough to execute the
algorithms, and I estimate 2030.
In terms of supercomputing there are a few niche markets - weather forecasting, the NSA, maybe a few banks. Realistically, most orgs are not shelling out the $$ for it. Most usage of computers is in the form of racks and racks of 2 or 4 socket pizza boxes running apps for people's phones - lots of rubbish in other words. Most orgs are not going to invest anywhere near the funds to overtly replace workers with computing power. So called Moore's law is running out of steam. See my analogy of approaching the speed of light. It's the same problem trying to approach the so called Singularity. The ROI is not there. It's cheaper to hire a bunch of modern equivalents of Coolies.
I am not sure about your conclusions, but wanted to share the following most interesting article.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/20160...ters-and-life/
Searching for the Algorithms Underlying Life
"The biological world is computational at its core, argues computer scientist Leslie Valiant. His “ecorithm” approach uses computational concepts to explore fundamental mysteries of evolution and the mind.”…
… "An ecorithm is an algorithm, but its performance is evaluated against input it gets from a rather uncontrolled and unpredictable world. And its goal is to perform well in that same complicated world. You think of an algorithm as something running on your computer, but it could just as easily run on a biological organism. But in either case an ecorithm lives in an external world and interacts with that world.”…
… "If you design an intelligent system that learns from its environment, then who knows — in some environments the system may manifest behavior that you really couldn’t foresee at all, and this behavior may be deleterious. So you have a point. But in general I’m not so worried about all this talk about the superintelligences somehow bringing about the end of human history. I regard intelligence as made up of tangible, mechanical and ultimately understandable processes. We will understand the intelligence we put into machines in the same way we understand the physics of explosives — that is, well enough to be able to render their behavior predictable enough that in general they don’t cause unintended damage. I’m not so concerned that artificial intelligence is different in kind from other existing powerful technologies. It has a scientific basis like the others.”…
30-Jan-16 World View -- Japan tries negative interest rates as US economy slows
*** 30-Jan-16 World View -- Japan tries negative interest rates as US economy slows
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Japan announces negative interest rates as an act of desperation
- Negative interest rates are supposed to improve the economy
- United States GDP figures show a slowing economy
- Mainstream economists are oblivious to the velocity of money
****
**** Japan announces negative interest rates as an act of desperation
****
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda (AFP)
In a move widely viewed as an act of desperation, the Bank of Japan on
Friday surprised economists by announcing that it will reduce a key
interest rate to a negative value, -0.1%. This means that if a
Japanese bank wants to "park" its excess reserve cash in the Bank of
Japan, then the bank will have to pay the BOJ to do so. It also means
that if a bank wants to borrow cash from the BOJ, then the BOJ will
pay the bank to do so. It's an upside-down world. Unfortunately, the
BOJ won't lend money to ordinary people.
According to the BOJ statement:
<QUOTE>"The Introduction of 'Quantitative and Qualitative
Monetary Easing (QQE) with a Negative Interest Rate'
[list][*] The Bank will apply a negative interest rate of minus 0.1
percent to current accounts that financial institutions hold at
the Bank. It will cut the interest rate further into negative
territory if judged as necessary.
[*] The Bank will introduce a multiple-tier system which some
central banks in Europe (e.g. the Swiss National Bank) have put in
place. Specifically, it will adopt a three-tier system in which
the outstanding balance of each financial institution's current
account at the Bank will be divided into three tiers, to each of
which a positive interest rate, a zero interest rate, or a
negative interest rate will be applied,
respectively."<END QUOTE>
Many economists were shocked because Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko
Kuroda had insisted only last week that the BOJ would not adopt any
new monetary easing policies, especially negative interest rates. The
purpose of the "three-tier system" is to reduce the amount of shock,
at least at first. This may be temporary because the statement also
says, "It will cut the interest rate further into negative territory
if judged as necessary."
In addition, the Bank of Japan is continuing its "quantitative easing"
(QE) program, and will continue to buy up government bonds worth 80
trillion yen ($660 billion) every year, adding that money to the
economy.
The latest data on the Japanese economy shows the reason for the
desperation. Household spending in December fell 4.4% from a year
ago, and monthly industrial production contracted 1.4%. Official data
shows that Japan's inflation rate was just 0.5% in 2015, and appears
to be falling. Like most central banks, the BOJ has a target
inflation rate of 2%, and that target seems far out of reach. Three
months ago, the BOJ projected a 2016 inflation rate of 1.4%, but now
has had to lower that projection to 0.8%. CNBC and Bank of Japan (PDF) and Market Watch
****
**** Negative interest rates are supposed to improve the economy
****
The logic behind the negative interest rate is that if a bank has too
much money sitting in its reserve accounts, then instead of depositing
it in the central bank, they might lend it out to businesses, who will
then use it to hire people, pushing up wages, putting more money in
people's pockets that they'll spend, pushing up inflation.
Unfortunately, that hasn't worked too well in other countries. In
mid2-2012, Denmark went to negative interest rates. In 2014, the
European Central Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) moved into
negative territory and Sweden did the same in early 2015.
In fact, if you add together the GDPs of all the economies whose
central banks have negative interest rates, then they add up to 23.1%.
In other words, almost 1/4 of the world, measured by GDP, are
economies where the central bank pays someone to take their money.
However, it is possible for ordinary investors to take advantage of
the negative interest rates by purchasing some government bonds. Some
Japanese government bonds, for example, have negative yields that go
as low as -0.08%.
At the same time, the ECB and BOJ also have large "quantitative
easing" programs, pumping money into banks by buying any bonds that
are available.
So all this money is pouring out of the central banks into the
regional banks, but there's little or no inflation, and certainly no
hyperinflation. That's because the cash is just being hoarded by the
banks and other financial institutions, for fear of a repeat of the
2007-2008 financial crisis. And if the money isn't being spent, and
isn't being used to hire people, then it's as if the money weren't
available at all. WSJ Blogs and Reuters and Market Watch
****
**** United States GDP figures show a slowing economy
****
The growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the US economy
slowed markedly in the fourth quarter of last year. The economy
expanded at a rate of 0.7%, a big drop from 2% in the third quarter,
and 3.9% in the second quarter.
Economists gave several reasons for the fizzling American economy:
- Exports are decreasing, because the US dollar currency is
getting stronger and stronger, making the US less competitive. With
Europe, Japan and China all weakening their currencies with policies
that include negative interest rates and quantitative easing, the US
currency is getting stronger by comparison.- Economists and politicians had hoped that with the falling prices
of oil and gasoline (petrol), consumers would have more money in their
pockets, and would spend more. Instead, consumer spending was soft in
the fourth quarter. Consumers are hoarding cash for the same reason
that we said that banks are hoarding cash -- because they fear a
repeat of the 2007-2008 financial crisis.- In addition, the weather in the US was significantly warmer than
usual, which suppressed holiday sales.
The reason that banks and consumers are hoarding cash is related to
the velocity of money, which is discussed below, and which mainstream
economists are apparently totally oblivious to. Market Watch and Guardian (London)
****
**** Mainstream economists are oblivious to the velocity of money
****
Velocity of money, 1920 to present (St. Louis Fed Fred Graph #282038)
Mainstream economists (including those in the so-called "Austrian
school") think that inflation is determined by the amount of money in
circulation as set by monetary policy -- interest rates and
quantitative easing. And you can find thousands of articles in the
past decade explaining why continued low interest rates would cause
inflation.
But anyone who's taken Economics 1.01 knows that inflation is caused
by two factors: the amount of money in circulation times the velocity
of money. You can google "velocity of money" for a full explanation,
but it represents how frequently money is actually used to buy things
or pay wages.
The above graph shows that the velocity of money has plummeted three
times in the last century: During the Great Depression of the 1930s,
following World War II in the 1940s, and during the financial crisis
of the 2000s.
Economists -- and I mean pretty much all economists of all ideologies
-- are completely oblivious to the velocity of money. If they think
about it at all, then they think that if the central bank prints
money, then it will raise not only the money supply but also the
velocity of money.
What economists don't understand is that they have no control over the
velocity of money. It's a generational variable, just like attitudes
towards sex or war. A high velocity of money means that people are
willing to spend lavishly. A low velocity of money means that people
want to save money prodigiously, or to pay off their debts. These are
attitudes that are deeply ingrained in people, just like their
attitudes toward sex or war. The government cannot change the
velocity of money by either monetary policy or fiscal policy.
And if the government can't control the velocity of money, then the
government can't control the inflation rate.
Here's what formed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in December:
<QUOTE>"I think negative nominal interest rates are something
the Fed might consider. We’ve seen it put to work in Europe
primarily. But the scope for negative nominal interest rates is
fairly limited. You can’t get very negative before people will
begin to hoard cash, for example, which pays zero nominal interest
rates. Although I’ve been surprised by how negative have been able
to get in some European countries, I don’t think that, in the
context of the United States, I don’t think that it could really
be a central tool because I don’t think that rates can get that
negative."<END QUOTE>
It's pretty clear that Bernanke doesn't understand the velocity of
money, or thinks that hoarding money is being caused by low interest
rates. The causation goes in the opposite direction. Since 2007, the
velocity of money has been decreasing, meaning that people are
hoarding their money more, not spending it. This is causing a
deflationary spiral, and forcing the Fed to lower interest rates. As
the deflationary spiral worsens, the Fed in desperation will resort to
negative interest rates, as has happened in Japan.
Ever since 2003, when I started writing regularly about Generational
Dynamics, I've repeatedly written that in this generational Crisis
era, Generational Dynamics is predicting a deflationary spiral.
Mainstream economists, on the other hand, have been predicting that
inflation or even hyperinflation would begin "next year" every year
since then. Mainstream economists have been dead wrong, and continue
to be wrong, while Generational Dynamics is right. The reason is that
mainstream economists are oblivious to the velocity of money.
Market Watch (15-Dec-2015) and St. Louis Fed
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Bank of Japan, BOJ, Haruhiko Kuroda,
European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, SNB,, Sweden,
Denmark, negative interest rates, quantitative easing, QE,
Ben Bernanke
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What trump supporters want is to free America from the wilsonian globalist slavery. They want America to be a militarized power that looks out for ITS OWN interests. Trump Believes that America gets a raw deal from the post-ww2 order and wants basically to return to the old system of regional powers that existed before 1945. He specifically mentions our alliances and obligations to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan for example as commitments that are net negatives for the US in his opinion.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...-policy-213546
When talking about politicians, I try to remember not to use the word
"believes," because we rarely know what a politician believes. I
would have written this sentence as "Trump SAYS that America gets a
raw deal...", because he may or may not believe what he says.
Also, the Politico article says, "Trump seeks nothing less than ending
the U.S.-led liberal order and freeing America from its international
commitments." Doesn't that contradict everything else you've written
about why you like Trump? Don't you like Trump because he says he'll
take action, rather than retreating from the world?
Did you read the second and third pages of the article? It may not have been apparent a first glance.
Regarding the proposed policy for America: maintaining the superpower stance has become largely untenable due to the rise of rival military-industrial complexes for example; China, India, Iran etc. Before about 2000 or so we only had to worry about Russia. Many of our allies are effectively disarmed because the current world system the US has pledged to basically be a shield for them, thus those countries for the most part did not have militaries for the most part. With the rise of new economic powers, we would be stretched much more thinly that we would have been even 20 years ago. Having regional nations build up their militaries would provide buffer zones between us and both China and Russia.
Ok, I've read some more of your politico article, as much as I can
stand.
So Trump wants the US to repudiate its mutual defense agreements with
Japan, South Korea, etc.
And then (har har) he wants to invoice these countries for America to
protect them.
As you know, I write about the farcical things that politicians say
and do all the time. For example, earlier this week I wrote about the
farcical Syria "peace talks." And sure enough, the "peace talks" are
unfolding as more than complete farce.
Japan, South Korea and others would NEVER pay the US to defend them.
If they were going to spend that money, they would spend it on their
own military. It's like that ridiculous demand that Mexico pay for
building a fence. If Trump actually believes what he says, then he's
got to be one of the stupidest people around.
What's even more ridiculous is the economic contradictions. He says
he wants to spend more on defense, but he doesn't want to defend
anyone. In other words, a lot of the defense budget is for
defending Japan, South Korea, etc. Well, if they're going to
be defending themselves, then we need a SMALLER military, because
we're only defending ourselves. Apparently that concept is
beyond the grasp of super-businessman Donald Trump.
And then of course there are the geopolitical issues. The reason we
agreed to defend Japan after WW II is so that they wouldn't re-arm and
become imperialistic again. The result is that they've become
dependent on the American defense commitment. If there were even a
hint that it was going to be repudiated, then Japan, South Korea,
etc., would all immediately start to re-arm themselves and plan for
war.
At times like this, I always think of that old Abraham Lincoln quote:
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and
remove all doubt."
Before I knew anything about Trump's foreign policy attitudes, I just
thought he was just completely ignorant, like Obama. Now, every time
he opens his mouth, he shows himself to be a greater fool than ever,
as happened when he made that ridiculous claim about taxing China 45%,
and then lying about having said it.
Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are crazy as loons. But they're
both the runaway favorites in their respective parties, largely
because of support from Millennials and Gen-Xers, most of whom
couldn't find China on a map. That's why we're headed for disaster.
Basically, the super power thing was a part of the bipolar/Cold War thing. The international landscape is changing. If a de facto global multi-polar system should start to gel, we should reconsider our foreign policy.
Good point about politicians.
31-Jan-16 World View - Turkey threatens 'consequences' after Russia violates airspace
*** 31-Jan-16 World View -- Turkey threatens 'consequences' after Russia violates its airspace again
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey threatens 'consequences' after Russia violates its airspace again
- The English language becomes an issue between Turkey and Russia
****
**** Turkey threatens 'consequences' after Russia violates its airspace again
****
Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan at their last 'friendly' meeting, on November 16, a week before Russia's warplane was shot down over Turkey (AP)
Russia is denying as "baseless propaganda" a claim by Turkey that
Russia has once again violated its airspace, this time with an SU-34
bomber on Friday. According to a statement appearing on the web site
of Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
<QUOTE>"Yesterday (29 January 2016) at 11.46 hours local
time, a SU-34 type Russian aircraft violated Turkish airspace.
Before the violation actually took place, Russian plane was warned
numerous times by Turkish air radar units, (through appropriate
channels) both in English and Russian languages.
Despite several previous explicit statements of warnings by both
Turkey and NATO, this new violation is yet another concrete
example of Russian escalatory behavior.
We once again explicitly call on Russia, to act responsibly and
not to violate Turkish Airspace, which is NATO airspace. We
underline that such actions could lead to serious consequences,
the responsibility of which will totally rest with the Russian
Federation."<END QUOTE>
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Russia of purposely trying "to
escalate the crisis in the region," and added that "If Russia
continues to violate Turkey's sovereignty, it will have to face the
consequences." Erdogan also pointed out that Turkey is a member of
Nato, but did not specify what "the consequences" would be.
This is the latest in a series of increasingly hostile acts between
Turkey versus Russia and its ally Syria. In June, 2012, Syrian forces shot down a Turkish air force jet.
On September 16, 2013, Turkey scrambled two F-16 jets, and
shot down a Syrian Russian-made Mi-17 helicopter,
after warning it that it was approaching Turkish
airspace.
In October of last year, Turkey threatened Russia if airspace violations are repeated,
after
Russian warplanes violated Turkey's airspace on two occasions over one
weekend. At that time, Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said:
<QUOTE>"Turkey's rules of engagement apply to all planes, be
they Syrian, Russian or from elsewhere. Turkey's armed forces have
very clear instructions. The necessary steps will be taken against
whoever violates Turkey's borders, even if it's a
bird."<END QUOTE>
Then on November 24 of last year, two Turkish F-16s were involved in
the shooting down of a Russian warplane in Syria near the border with
Turkey. According to Turkey's military, the Russian aircraft was
warned 10 times in five minutes that it was violating Turkish
airspace. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
Russia and Turkey have been bitter enemies for centuries in several
generational crisis wars, especially after 1783, when the Russian
armies captured Crimea in what was the Ottoman empire's first
significant loss of Muslim territory, and then again in the Crimean
War of the 1850s.
Since the November 25 shootdown of the Russian warplane, Russia has
become increasingly hostile and threatening to Turkey, not only
imposing harsh and increasing economic sanctions on Turkey, but also
forcing other nations in the regions to choose sides between Turkey
and Russia. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey"
)
So this new incident of Russia violating Turkey's airspace is not the
trivial incident that it might otherwise seem to be. Turkey and
Russia seem very close to war as it is, especially since the Russians
have continually expressed nothing but contempt for Turkey, implying
that Russian warplanes can do what they want.
Turkey, on the other hand, is committed to a highly nationalistic view
of responding to any Russian incursion, even one that's harmless.
When Davutoglu says that the rules of engagement have been determined,
it implies that the next Russian incursion will be met with a missile
launched without requiring further permission from the government in
Ankara. AP and Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Russia Today and CS Monitor and Daily Sabah (Turkey)
****
**** The English language becomes an issue between Turkey and Russia
****
Saturday's statement by Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs includes
the following sentence:
<QUOTE>"Before the violation actually took place, Russian
plane was warned numerous times by Turkish air radar units,
(through appropriate channels) both in English and Russian
languages."<END QUOTE>
In denying the incident, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major
General Iror Konashenkov denounced the claim that Russian pilots had
been warned "in English and Russian" as a story made up by "ignorant
propagandists who watched too many Hollywood action movies."
After the Russian warplane shootdown in November of last year,
Turkey's military said that the Russian aircraft was warned 10 times
in five minutes that it was violating Turkish airspace. Russia denied
that any such warnings had been issued.
It emerged later that Russian military pilots are not required to
learn English. English is a requirement for civilian flights around
the world. For example, if a Russian civilian pilot were landing his
plane in Saudi Arabia, in most cases the Russian pilot would not know
Arabic and the Saudi air controllers would not speak Russian, and so
they would communicate in English as a common language. However,
there's no such requirement for military pilots.
According to Russian military media:
<QUOTE>"An active military pilot who asked not to be named
told the Voennoe.RF [Russian military news] reporter that English
language proficiency was not a necessary condition for service in
the Russian Airspace Force. "Yet it’s not obligatory", he said
having added that there were neither language courses nor interim
assessments.
That was also confirmed by other officers and engineers of the
Russian Airspace Force. "The main things are good health and
general erudition", emphasized one of them."<END QUOTE>
This gave rise to the possibility that Turkey had, in fact, warned the
Russian aircraft 10 times in five minutes, but that the Russian pilots
were ignorant of English and didn't understand the warnings.
So Saturday's statement from Turkey emphasized the fact that "the
Russian plane was warned numerous times ... both in English and
Russian languages." In response, Russia's Defense Ministry mocked the
"English and Russian" claim as a story made up by "ignorant
propagandists who watched too many Hollywood action movies."
I'm not sure how to interpret the Russian statement since, of course,
Hollywood action movies are generally in English. Mil.today (Russia, 21-October-2015)
and Russia Today
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Iror Konashenkov
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Last edited by John J. Xenakis; 01-31-2016 at 07:51 AM.
-- well this Boomer thinks Bernie makes alot of sense. He's the1st presidential candidate in a long time that I can get behind & actually back
