Originally Posted by marypoza

-- well this Boomer thinks Bernie makes alot of sense. He's the1st presidential candidate in a long time that I can get behind & actually back

Yup, know the candidate by who supports them.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ben-sp...b_8395892.html




Hillery = Shillery

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...e-own-clintons

Hey, if Shillery gets the nomination, I'll vote for a real Republican, Trump because

1. “Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time” - Truman
2. A little more chaos may be a "good thing".

Originally Posted by Wall $treet to $hillery

Burnin' burnin' all you can take
Wheels are turning in the bed you make
I'll take you over, you're tied at the stake
Nobody loves you like the way I do
Light rain's over
The sun's all around
Four leaf clover
As I pull you down
I'll take you over
You're tied at the stake
Nobody loves you like the way I do
Nobody loves you like the way I do
Nobody loves you like the way I do

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 20-Jan-16 World View -- Germany's Angela Merkel under pressure to restrict migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Germany's Angela Merkel under pressure to restrict migrants
• Puerto Rico's debt problem even worse than expected

****
**** Germany's Angela Merkel under pressure to restrict migrants
****


Anti-Merkel rally. Sign reads: Merkel, take your Muslims with you ... and get lost!!!' (Der Spiegel)

With her poll numbers falling and regional elections scheduled for
March, members of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
political party of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel are pressuring
her to reverse her policy on migrants. According to the dissenting
deputies:

<QUOTE>"In light of the developments in recent months, we can
no longer speak of a great challenge -- we are on the verge of our
country being overwhelmed. ...

We do not want to divide the CDU parliamentary group -- we are
only asking for the law to be applied."<END QUOTE>

"The law" in this case is the European Union's Dublin asylum
regulations, which say that refugees must seek asylum in the first
member country that they land in. In that case, any refugee reaching
Germany would already have been processed in Greece or Italy, and
those not qualifying for asylum would already have been deported.

Germany has had to deal with an influx of 1.1 million migrants
in 2015, and thousands are still arriving despite the winter
weather. That volume may increase substantially when the
warm Spring weather arrives.

The recent reported incidents of hundreds of alleged sexual assaults by Muslim migrants in Cologne on New Year's Eve
have been explosive, and increased pressure on Merkel.

W Europe seems to be on verge of chaos.

Originally Posted by Zerohedge

Sweden is losing its patience with refugees.
In the wake of the sexual assaults allegedly perpetrated by men of “Arab origin” in Cologne, Germany on New Year’s Eve, the Swedish press revealed what certainly appeared to be a coverup related to a wave of similar incidents that apparently occurred at a youth festival and concert in central Stockholm’s Kungsträdgården last August.
That ruffled the feathers of quite a few Swedes and then, earlier this week, we learned that a 22-year-old asylum center worker was murdered in a knife attack carried out by a 15-year-old Somali migrant named Youssaf Khalif Nuur, shown below.

Alexandra Mezher (the victim) had been working at the shelter in Molndal for “a few months” when she was killed while working a night shift.
And speaking of unaccompanied refugees, Stockholm’s central train station has apparently been overrun by Moroccan migrant children who, according to reports, spend their days drinking, stealing, and accosting women.
On Thursday, Interior Minister Anders Ygeman said the country is set to deport some 80,000 of the 163,000 people who entered the country seeking shelter last year, but that wasn't good enough for the "football hooligan scene", who on Friday night "went on a rampage" at the train station in Stockholm where "hundreds" of masked men beat migrant children.
"A mob of black-clad masked men went on a rampage in and around Stockholm's main train station last night beating up refugees and anyone who did not look like they were ethnically Swedish," The Daily Mail reports. "Before the attack, the group of 200 people handed out xenophobic leaflets with the message 'Enough now'."
The "thugs" were "allegedly linked to Sweden's football hooligan scene" - whatever that is.
"I was passing by and saw a masked group dressed in black ... start hitting foreigners," one witness said. "I saw three people molested."
Here are the visuals:


And here's the text of the flyer the "football hooligans" distributed ahead of the assault to wrest control of the train station from the iron grip of preteen Moroccan migrant children:

All over the country, reports are pouring in that the police can no longer cope with preventing and investigating the crimes which strike the Swedish people.'

'In some cases, for example, in the latest murder of a woman employed at a home for so called ‘unaccompanied minor refugees’ in Molndal, it goes as far as the National Police Commissioner choosing to show more sympathy for the perpetrator than the victim,' it continues.

'But we refuse to accept the repeated assaults and harrassment against Swedish women.'

'We refuse to accept the destruction of our once to safe society. When our political leadership and police show more sympathy for murderers than for their victims, there are no longer any excuses to let it happen without protest.'

'When Swedish streets are no longer safe to walk on for normal Swedes, it is our DUTY to fix the problem,' the leaflet reads.

'This is why, today, 200 Swedish men gathered to take a stand against the north African ‘street children’ who are running rampage in and around the capital’s central station.'

'Police have clearly showed that they lack the means to stop their progress and we se no other way than to hand down the punishment they deserve ourselves.'

'The justice system has walked out and the contract of society is therefore broken – it is now every Swedish man’s duty to defend out public spaced against the imported criminality.'

'Those who gathered today are neither your politician, your journalist or your policeman. We are your father, your brother, your husband, your colleague, your friend and your neighbour.

You'll recall what we said in the wake of Mezher's murder: "Yes PM Löfven, we believe that you are correct to say that 'there are quite many people in Sweden who feel a lot of concern' and make no mistake, if European politicans do not find an effective way to get the situation under control, the public will remove them - either with the ballot or with the torches and pitchforks."
The text of the leaflet distributed ahead of the train station "rampage" is proof positive that at least some Swedes are prepared to stage an open revolt against a government they now view as standing in violation of the social contract.
When social contract theory breaks down, you're left with a Hobbesian state of nature and as you can see from the video shown above, it is indeed "nasty and brutish" and may well end up being quite "short" for the hundreds of unaccompanied North African migrants who fled their countries for the "safety" of Sweden.
There was no word on whether the "football hooligan" crowd managed to retake the station or whether the Moroccan migrant children remain dug in.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/europe...ver/index.html

Hmmm... Chaos, coming to a country near you. Reminds me of the "Eve of Destruction" of the 1970's. Similar stuff, just a different song/lyrics.

Originally Posted by It Flies Again

Been looking for something
Something that was true
Been looking for something
That wasn't like you

Came up from the ashes
Washed up on the shore
Crawled out from the seas of fire
Only to settle the score

The liars
The Cheats
And the beggars
Stared back in disgust
The liars
The Cheats
And the beggars
Stared back in disgust
Put out when they must

I gave it
I wanted
I listened
I stayed till the end
I gave it
I wanted
I listened
It flies again
It flies again

In time they would listen
In time it was seen
For all to be winning
And no in between

Rags, too bad this forum don't have a like button

*** 1-Feb-16 World View -- Damascus terror attack deals a new blow to Syria 'peace talks'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dozens killed in ISIS attack on a Shia shrine in Damascus Syria
• Damascus shrine attack deals another blow to the Syria 'peace talks' in Geneva

****
**** Dozens killed in ISIS attack on a Shia shrine in Damascus Syria
****


Aftermath of triple suicide bombing in Damascus on Sunday (SANA)

The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed
responsibility for a massive series of suicide bomber attacks on
Sunday at the historic Shia Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Syria's capital
city Damascus, killing at least 71 people and injuring dozens more.

Two days earlier, a terrorist bombed a Shia mosque in al-Ahsa in
eastern Saudi Arabia. Although no one claimed responsibility for the
attack, it was similar to attacks by ISIS. The perpetrator was later
identified as a Saudi national.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack on the Saudi mosque:

<QUOTE>"The repetition of terror attacks to mosques and
Husseiniyehs in eastern Saudi Arabia indicates the worrying
security situation in the region and negligence of security forces
in fulfilling their responsibility in maintaining public security
against terrorists' attacks."<END QUOTE>

The Iranian comment, essentially blaming the Saudi government for the
bombing attack, reflects the increasing hostility between Iran and
Saudi Arabia, following the execution by the Saudis of Shia cleric
Nimr al-Nimr after being convicted in court of being a terrorist.
( "4-Jan-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region"
)

The tables have turned on Iran with Sunday's attack in Damascus, in
the back yard of Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad. Iran's Foreign
Ministry did not issue any statement condemning Bashar al-Assad after
the Damascus attack. Instead, Syria's Ambassador Bashar Jaafari
blamed the Saudi government and its alleged links to ISIS for the
attack.

The area was heavily protected and was supposed to be safe. After the
first suicide bomber exploded people gathered around to see what had
happened, and then two more suicide bombers exploded. The heavily
populated area of southern Damascus is a site of pilgrimage for Shias
from Iran, Lebanon and other parts of the Muslim world. The Sayyida
Zeinab shrine is one of the holiest in Shia Islam, as it houses graves
from the time of the Prophet Mohammed. The area is also the
stronghold of several Shia militias.

ISIS and other Sunni jihadists say that Shia Islam is an apostasy, and
many Sunni jihadists groups have pledged to exterminate the Shias.
More attacks on Shia targets are to be expected. Vice News and Gulf News and Al Manar

****
**** Damascus shrine attack deals another blow to the Syria 'peace talks' in Geneva
****

A week ago, I wrote "25-Jan-16 World View -- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva"
, as the Geneva talks were beginning. The
ISIS attack on the historic Damascus shrine deals another blow.

There's a great deal about the Geneva "peace talks" in the last week
that can be mocked, but there's also an increasing feeling of anxiety
and desperation about what's going on in the Mideast.

On Sunday morning, I heard al-Jazeera's senior political analyst
Marwan Bishara say, "The Mideast is falling apart. This is not an
exaggeration. The Mideast is falling apart." Almost every analyst
and politician who expresses any opinion says that they don't expect
much from the peace talks, as there have already been several failures
in the past.

The Bashar al-Assad regime and the Iranians are making it clear that
they have no intention of conceding anything. With the Russian
bombing going on, the al-Assad regime is gaining strength on the
ground, though not enough to win. Furthermore, the Iranians refer to
the al-Assad opposition as all "terrorists," and suggest that they
won't concede anything to terrorists anyway.

This is the attitude that caused ISIS to be formed in the first place.
The Shia/Alawite al-Assad regime started massacring and slaughtering
innocent Sunni women and children in 2011 when they were peacefully
protesting. This triggered one of the most spectacular events of my
lifetime -- tens of thousands young Sunni men from countries around
the world, from south Asia to Pakistan to the Mideast to northern
Africa and up to Russia's Caucasus region, joined by many young men
from Europe and even the U.S., traveled to Syria to fight al-Assad,
even leading to the creation of ISIS.

So now, the Shia/Alawite al-Assad regime is still calling anyone who
disagrees with them "terrorists," and it continues its policy of
extermination of all Sunnis. This is exactly the attitude that caused
ISIS to be created in the first place. And now the Shia/Alawite
al-Assad regime is being joined by the Orthodox Christian Vladimir
Putin regime from Russia to further inflame the jihadists. As I've
said in the past, the Three Satans of our time are Bashar al-Assad,
Russia's Vladimir Putin, and Iran's Seyed Ali Khamenei. These Three
Satans are entirely to blame for the mass slaughter of hundreds of
thousands of innocent people, creating ISIS, and triggering the flight
of millions of refugees to Europe.

So coming back to the Geneva meeting, the drama all week was that the
al-Assad opposition "rebel" groups are unable to select negotiators to
attend the Geneva negotiations. They point out that the Russians are
still bombing and slaughtering entire neighborhoods of innocent
people, something was supposed to stop before the negotiations began.
They say that they're unable to negotiate with someone whose warplanes
are trying to kill them. And indeed, the al-Assad regime has no
intention of negotiating with them either.

The opposition groups are under tremendous pressure from the Americans
and other Westerners to attend the Geneva "peace talks," whether they
like it or not.

The "peace talks" are futile for many reasons, and the two attacks on
Shia shrines over the weekend illustrate one of the major ones. Iran
and al-Assad are not going to end their slaughter of innocent Sunnis,
but even if they did and there was a so-called political solution,
ISIS and other jihadist groups would still be intent on exterminating
Shias and attacking the Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad regime.

More and more analysts and politicians are anxiously reaching the same
conclusion that Marwan Bishara did -- that the Mideast is actually
falling apart. Al-Jazeera and AFP and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Damascus, Sayyida Zeinab shrine,
Saudi Arabia, Al-Ahsa, Nimr al-Nimr, Bashar Jaafari, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Marwan Bishara, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei,

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

One cannot even compare Sanders and Trump.

Sanders is definitely an adult in the room, Trump would be the worst President in US History.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> One cannot even compare Sanders and Trump.

> Sanders is definitely an adult in the room, Trump would be the
> worst President in US History.

"Young people love Sanders because college is free." - a young
person quoted on CNBC

"Bernie Sanders’s fiction-filled campaign" - WaPost
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...cc8_story.html


Sanders and Trump are quite comparable because they're both
total loons and both total disasters. Either would be the
worst president in US history.

The fact that two total loons are wildly popular in their respective
parties just shows how we're headed for disaster.

*** 2-Feb-16 World View -- France issues ultimatum to Israel as West Bank tensions grow

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• West Bank tensions rise after Palestinian policeman shot dead
• Israel rejects France's ultimatum to recognize state of Palestine

****
**** West Bank tensions rise after Palestinian policeman shot dead
****


Thousands of people filled the streets for the funeral of Amjad Sukkari on Monday (AFP)

Palestinian Authority (PA) police are praising the martyrdom of their
colleague, Amjad Sukkari, a 34-year-old policeman who worked as a
bodyguard for the Palestinian attorney general, who was shot dead by
Israeli troops on Sunday morning after he opened fire on the soldiers
at a checkpoint, injuring three.

Thousands of people took to the streets on Monday for Sukkari’s
funeral after Israeli forces released his body just a few hours after
the shooting. Two of Sukkari’s brothers, both Palestinian police
officers, carried the casket from the hospital to the city’s martyrs
cemetery as crowds waved flags and chanted “martyr”.

The Palestinian police said in a statement that "with great pride, the
members of the Palestinian police eulogize the brave martyrdom of
their colleague, Master Sergeant Amjad Sukkari, 'Abu Omar', who
committed the operation at V.I.P checkpoint in Beit El."

Palestinian Authority (PA) officials did not participate in
the funeral and have refused comment on the matter.

However, officials from Hamas and Islamic Jihad publicly endorsed
his actions and called them a natural reaction of occupation.
According to a Hamas spokesman, "This attack showcases the rejection
of security coordination with the occupation, even among members of
the PA security forces."

The Hamas statement signals a possible turn of events that could be
extremely dangerous.

There is a long-term agreement between PA and Israel to coordinate
security. Thus many potential terrorist attacks on Israelis are
prevented by the PA security forces. According to an Israel's defense
minister Moshe Ya'alon, the PA foils 20% of organized terrorism by
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, while Israel thwarts the remaining 80%.

Obviously, this kind of security coordination between Hamas and the PA
is bitterly opposed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Now, the Palestinian police eulogizing the "brave martyrdom" of their
fellow policemen Sukkari suggests that the PA security forces
themselves are opposed to any security cooperation with Israel.

A campaign of stabbings, shootings and car-rammings by Palestinians
has killed 26 Israelis and a U.S. citizen since the start of
October. Israeli forces have killed at least 153 Palestinians, 99 of
them assailants according to Israeli authorities.

As we described last year ( "18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive"
),
there has been a significant change in attitudes in the West Bank,
especially young people who grew up after the 1993 Oslo accords
between Israel and the Palestinians. They're reacting to the fact
that in 23 years since the accords, there have been no changes to the
Israeli occupation of the West Bank. They've decided that there's no
longer any hope of a two-state solution, and they're looking for a new
leader, someone who will "get things done" with the Israelis, using
whatever tactics are necessary.

The violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank has
been growing steadily, and there's a fear that Sunday's attack could
trigger a new escalation in violence, this time involving the PA
peacekeeping forces themselves. Jerusalem Post and Reuters and Middle East Eye and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Israel rejects France's ultimatum to recognize state of Palestine
****

France said on Friday it intended to make another push at trying to
resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and warned that if its
efforts failed, it would recognize a Palestinian State. According to
France's foreign affairs minister Laurent Fabius:

<QUOTE>"France will engage in the coming weeks in the
preparation of an international conference bringing together the
parties and their main partners, American, European, Arab, notably
to preserve and make happen the two-state solution.

[If this attempt fails, then] in this case, we need to face our
responsibilities by recognizing the Palestinian state. ...

We see that unfortunately colonization continues and that
recently, the Israeli Prime Minister went so far as to reproach
the UN Secretary General for encouraging terrorism on the basis
that he had reminded of colonization’s illegality and asked that
it cease,"<END QUOTE>

Fabius's last remark referred to remarks by Ban Ki-moon criticizing
senior Israeli officials for abandoning the two-state solution, as the
current situation was untenable. Ban added that it was
"understandable" that Palestinians were resisting Israeli military
rule. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded, saying
that Ban was "encouraging terrorism."

The Palestinian Authority (PA) welcomed France's initiative.

Netanyahu said that Israel did not reject Fabius's proposal for
renewed talks, but said that France's ultimatum was "an incentive to
the Palestinians to come along and not compromise." He added,

<QUOTE>"I assess that there will be a sobering up regarding
this matter. In any event, we will make effort so that there is a
sobering up here, and our position is very clear: We are prepared
to enter direct negotiation without preconditions and without
dictated terms."<END QUOTE>

However, senior Israeli officials reportedly responded off the record
with sarcastic remarks, such as: "Will France be calling for an
international conference with the Islamic State, too? It has, after
all, been conducting terrorist attacks on French territory."

When President George Bush announced his "Roadmap to Mideast Peace" in
2003, I wrote that the Mideast peace plan would not be implemented, because Israelis and Palestinians would
be refighting the 1948 genocidal crisis war that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. In
that article, I said that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli
leader Ariel Sharon hated each other but, consciously or
unconsciously, they were cooperating to prevent an all-out war,
because they both survived the bloody 1948 war and didn't want it to
happen again.

Since 2006, there have been five Mideast wars, and they've all turned
out to be non-crisis wars, with operations dictated by political
leaders: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on
Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and
Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation
Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the
two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and
July-August 2014.

There have been several attempts at Israeli-Palestinian peace talks,
including two or three by the Obama administration, and they've always
been disastrous failure. There is absolutely no reason to believe
that the new French initiative will fare any differently. The only
question is: When it fails, how bad will the disaster be? France 24 and Al Arabiya and France 24 and Al Monitor


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Palestinian Authority, PA,
Amjad Sukkari, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Moshe Ya'alon,
Oslo Generation, France, Laurent Fabius, Ban Ki-moon,
Benjamin Netanyahu, George Bush, Roadmap to Peace,
Yasser Arafat, Ariel Sharon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 3-Feb-16 World View -- US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community
• US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity

****
**** Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community
****


Jabal Al Hussein Refugee Camp in Amman, Jordan. Originally built in 1952 as a refugee camp for Palestinians fleeing conflict from the Arab-Israeli War, it has morphed into a permanent neighborhood in downtown Amman that houses Syrians and Egyptians, along with Palestinians. Many Syrian refugees in Amman live in Jabal Al Hussein Camp because of the affordable rent and to avoid the official refugee camps. (PRI)

There are already about 1.4 million people living in Jordan, and more
are pouring in every day. According to Jordan's King Abdullah:

<QUOTE>"The hospitality of our country has been known for
decades. We have looked after waves and waves of refugees. And
again what you have to understand, and what is not being spoken
about, is not just the 20% of our population, which is Syrian
refugees. And, again, reminding everyone in the international
community that 90% are outside of the refugee camps. They are in
our infrastructure; they are in our schools; they are in our
hospitals. Rent in many areas has gone up by 300%. In the northern
provinces that you have been, in the northern governorates, in a
lot of areas, the Jordanians are in the minority. Rent is up 300%,
as I said."<END QUOTE>

Abdullah says that Jordanian people, especially young people, can no
longer find jobs because they're displace by refugees. As more and
more refugees pour in, the situation "has gotten to a boiling point.
Jordanians are suffering from trying to find jobs; the pressure on the
infrastructure for the government; it has hurt us when it comes to the
educational system, our healthcare; people, just Jordanians trying to
get along with their lives. Sooner or later, I think the dam is going
to burst."

Abdullah is traveling to London to attend a donors conference for
Syrian refugees. He says that he'll be issuing an ultimatum that he
needs more international aid, or he's going to refuse to take in any
more Syrian refugees beyond "limited numbers."

Like many Mideast leaders, Abdullah is contemptuous of the whining of
European leaders who are complaining about absorbing a couple of
million refugees into a population of 500 million, less than half of
one percent, as compared to 20% for Jordan. He said that Europeans
have been profuse with praise for Jordan. "Those words were all
wonderful, but it wasn’t until a trickle hit European shores that
then, I think, eyebrows were raised and they began to realise the
reality of the challenges that Jordanians have faced."

Abdullah added:

<QUOTE>"Whenever the international community has asked for
Jordan to fight the good fight, alongside of our colleagues all
over the international community, we have never said no. What we
are asking now for the first time is, the international community,
we have always stood shoulder-to-shoulder by your side; we are now
asking for your help, you can’t say no this time around to
us."<END QUOTE>

My guess is that there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that
Abdullah will get the international aid that he wants. The best he
can hope for is a few more wonderful words, and promises of aid that
will never be fulfilled. Jordan Times and Public Radio International (PRI) and Jordan Times

****
**** US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity
****

For the second time, on Sunday the US Navy has sent an American
warship on a "Freedom of Navigation op" (FONOP) into the South China
Sea near an island claimed by China as sovereign territory. The Navy
did something similar last year in October, in both cases to challenge
Chinese claims.

Both FONOPs were made in pursuit of stated US policy. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

However, there were significant differences between the two FONOPs,
with two different legal rationales.

In October, the USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi
Reef. Subi Reef has been made into an artificial island by the
Chinese, and they are now claiming that the artificial island is their
sovereign territory. The purpose of October's FONOP was to contest
China's claim that it was an "island," rather than a "low-tide
elevation."

On Sunday, the USS Curtis Wilbur, a guided-missile destroyer, sailed
within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels, which is
controlled by China but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. In this
case, the legal rationale was to assert the right of innocent passage
through territorial waters without having to give advance notice,
something that both China and Vietnam demand when foreign vessels
transit through territorial waters that they claim. According to the
Defense Dept:

<QUOTE>"This operation challenged attempts by the three
claimants, China, Taiwan and Vietnam, to restrict navigation
rights and freedoms around the features they claim by policies
that require prior permission or notification of transit within
territorial seas. The excessive claims regarding Triton Island are
inconsistent with international law as reflected in the Law of the
Sea Convention."<END QUOTE>

China's foreign ministry responded as follows:

<QUOTE>"According to the Law of the People's Republic of
China on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, foreign
ships for military purposes shall be subject to approval by the
Government of the People's Republic of China for entering the
territorial sea of the People's Republic of China. The US navy
vessel violated the relevant Chinese law and entered China's
territorial sea without authorization. The Chinese side conducted
surveillance and vocal warnings to the US navy vessel in
accordance with the law. We urge the US to respect and abide by
the relevant Chinese law, and make more efforts to increase mutual
trust between China and the US and safeguard regional peace and
stability."<END QUOTE>

The interesting thing about this statement is that it makes no
reference whatsoever to international law, but only to Chinese law.
It's as if I declared the street in front of my apartment building to
be my sovereign territory, and then threatened anyone who violated
"relevant John Xenakis law" by traveling across it. China is claiming
the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory, even though
many parts of it are legally in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of
other countries, and have sovereign territory of those other
countries. Like Russia, China today is following the example of Adolf
Hitler by annexing regions belonging to other countries, and in the
case of Hitler, this led to World War II. China and Russia are both
contemptuous of internal law, and only reference it when doing so is
to their benefit.

Sunday's FONOP had the effect of isolating China from the other two
countries claiming the island. All three countries have historically
demanded “prior permission or notification” before any innocent
passage in their territorial waters. But only China has actually
protested and condemned the Wilbur passage.

Instead, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement
stating simply that Taiwan abides by both the U.N. Charter and UNCLOS
and will not pose any “obstacle” to resolving disputes in the South
China Sea. Vietnam also released a statement reiterating its
sovereignty over Triton Island but also saying that “Vietnam respects
the right of other countries to innocent passage in its territorial
waters as per the regulations promulgated in international law.”
Importantly, neither country condemned the U.S. operation for failing
to obtain permission before the “innocent passage” even though both
countries apparently codify that requirement in their domestic laws.

According to Admiral Harry B Harris Jr., the commander of the
U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM):

<QUOTE>"I think that as we continue down the path of freedom
of navigations, you will see more of them, and you will see them
increasing in complexity and scope in areas of
challenge."<END QUOTE>

Harris added that as China continues to build artificial islands in
the South China Sea, by 2020 China would effectively control the
waters – through which 5 trillion dollars of global trade pass – with
only Washington being able to challenge it. The Diplomat and China's Foreign Ministry and Lawfare Blog and The Diplomat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, Amman, Jabal Al Hussein Refugee Camp,
King Abdullah, Syria,
Freedom of Navigation op, FONOP, Ash Carter, South China Sea,
USS Lassen, Subi Reef, USS Curtis Wilber, Triton Island,
China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Russia, Harry B Harris Jr

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 3-Feb-16 World View -- US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community
• US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity

****
**** Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community
****


Jabal Al Hussein Refugee Camp in Amman, Jordan. Originally built in 1952 as a refugee camp for Palestinians fleeing conflict from the Arab-Israeli War, it has morphed into a permanent neighborhood in downtown Amman that houses Syrians and Egyptians, along with Palestinians. Many Syrian refugees in Amman live in Jabal Al Hussein Camp because of the affordable rent and to avoid the official refugee camps. (PRI)

There are already about 1.4 million people living in Jordan, and more
are pouring in every day. According to Jordan's King Abdullah:

<QUOTE>"The hospitality of our country has been known for
decades. We have looked after waves and waves of refugees. And
again what you have to understand, and what is not being spoken
about, is not just the 20% of our population, which is Syrian
refugees. And, again, reminding everyone in the international
community that 90% are outside of the refugee camps. They are in
our infrastructure; they are in our schools; they are in our
hospitals. Rent in many areas has gone up by 300%. In the northern
provinces that you have been, in the northern governorates, in a
lot of areas, the Jordanians are in the minority. Rent is up 300%,
as I said."<END QUOTE>

Abdullah says that Jordanian people, especially young people, can no
longer find jobs because they're displace by refugees. As more and
more refugees pour in, the situation "has gotten to a boiling point.
Jordanians are suffering from trying to find jobs; the pressure on the
infrastructure for the government; it has hurt us when it comes to the
educational system, our healthcare; people, just Jordanians trying to
get along with their lives. Sooner or later, I think the dam is going
to burst."

Abdullah is traveling to London to attend a donors conference for
Syrian refugees. He says that he'll be issuing an ultimatum that he
needs more international aid, or he's going to refuse to take in any
more Syrian refugees beyond "limited numbers."

Like many Mideast leaders, Abdullah is contemptuous of the whining of
European leaders who are complaining about absorbing a couple of
million refugees into a population of 500 million, less than half of
one percent, as compared to 20% for Jordan. He said that Europeans
have been profuse with praise for Jordan. "Those words were all
wonderful, but it wasn’t until a trickle hit European shores that
then, I think, eyebrows were raised and they began to realise the
reality of the challenges that Jordanians have faced."

Abdullah added:

<QUOTE>"Whenever the international community has asked for
Jordan to fight the good fight, alongside of our colleagues all
over the international community, we have never said no. What we
are asking now for the first time is, the international community,
we have always stood shoulder-to-shoulder by your side; we are now
asking for your help, you can’t say no this time around to
us."<END QUOTE>

My guess is that there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that
Abdullah will get the international aid that he wants. The best he
can hope for is a few more wonderful words, and promises of aid that
will never be fulfilled. Jordan Times and Public Radio International (PRI) and Jordan Times

****
**** US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity
****

For the second time, on Sunday the US Navy has sent an American
warship on a "Freedom of Navigation op" (FONOP) into the South China
Sea near an island claimed by China as sovereign territory. The Navy
did something similar last year in October, in both cases to challenge
Chinese claims.

Both FONOPs were made in pursuit of stated US policy. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

However, there were significant differences between the two FONOPs,
with two different legal rationales.

In October, the USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi
Reef. Subi Reef has been made into an artificial island by the
Chinese, and they are now claiming that the artificial island is their
sovereign territory. The purpose of October's FONOP was to contest
China's claim that it was an "island," rather than a "low-tide
elevation."

On Sunday, the USS Curtis Wilbur, a guided-missile destroyer, sailed
within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels, which is
controlled by China but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. In this
case, the legal rationale was to assert the right of innocent passage
through territorial waters without having to give advance notice,
something that both China and Vietnam demand when foreign vessels
transit through territorial waters that they claim. According to the
Defense Dept:

<QUOTE>"This operation challenged attempts by the three
claimants, China, Taiwan and Vietnam, to restrict navigation
rights and freedoms around the features they claim by policies
that require prior permission or notification of transit within
territorial seas. The excessive claims regarding Triton Island are
inconsistent with international law as reflected in the Law of the
Sea Convention."<END QUOTE>

China's foreign ministry responded as follows:

<QUOTE>"According to the Law of the People's Republic of
China on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, foreign
ships for military purposes shall be subject to approval by the
Government of the People's Republic of China for entering the
territorial sea of the People's Republic of China. The US navy
vessel violated the relevant Chinese law and entered China's
territorial sea without authorization. The Chinese side conducted
surveillance and vocal warnings to the US navy vessel in
accordance with the law. We urge the US to respect and abide by
the relevant Chinese law, and make more efforts to increase mutual
trust between China and the US and safeguard regional peace and
stability."<END QUOTE>

The interesting thing about this statement is that it makes no
reference whatsoever to international law, but only to Chinese law.
It's as if I declared the street in front of my apartment building to
be my sovereign territory, and then threatened anyone who violated
"relevant John Xenakis law" by traveling across it. China is claiming
the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory, even though
many parts of it are legally in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of
other countries, and have sovereign territory of those other
countries. Like Russia, China today is following the example of Adolf
Hitler by annexing regions belonging to other countries, and in the
case of Hitler, this led to World War II. China and Russia are both
contemptuous of internal law, and only reference it when doing so is
to their benefit.

Sunday's FONOP had the effect of isolating China from the other two
countries claiming the island. All three countries have historically
demanded “prior permission or notification” before any innocent
passage in their territorial waters. But only China has actually
protested and condemned the Wilbur passage.

Instead, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement
stating simply that Taiwan abides by both the U.N. Charter and UNCLOS
and will not pose any “obstacle” to resolving disputes in the South
China Sea. Vietnam also released a statement reiterating its
sovereignty over Triton Island but also saying that “Vietnam respects
the right of other countries to innocent passage in its territorial
waters as per the regulations promulgated in international law.”
Importantly, neither country condemned the U.S. operation for failing
to obtain permission before the “innocent passage” even though both
countries apparently codify that requirement in their domestic laws.

According to Admiral Harry B Harris Jr., the commander of the
U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM):

<QUOTE>"I think that as we continue down the path of freedom
of navigations, you will see more of them, and you will see them
increasing in complexity and scope in areas of
challenge."<END QUOTE>

Harris added that as China continues to build artificial islands in
the South China Sea, by 2020 China would effectively control the
waters – through which 5 trillion dollars of global trade pass – with
only Washington being able to challenge it. The Diplomat and China's Foreign Ministry and Lawfare Blog and The Diplomat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, Amman, Jabal Al Hussein Refugee Camp,
King Abdullah, Syria,
Freedom of Navigation op, FONOP, Ash Carter, South China Sea,
USS Lassen, Subi Reef, USS Curtis Wilber, Triton Island,
China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Russia, Harry B Harris Jr

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Nazi China and Nazi Russia.

But hey, all we need to do is go mining and exploring asteroids, that way we will have no need to contest the emerging Axis. We can go ahead and concede ground to the Axis. Worst case we'll just take off and go live on asteroids, leaving the war-like Earth behind! / sarc

*** 4-Feb-16 World View -- Syria peace talks collapse as Russia carpet bombs opposition in Aleppo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria peace talks collapse as Russia carpet bombs opposition in Aleppo
• John Kerry warns of ISIS expansion in Syria

****
**** Syria peace talks collapse as Russia carpet bombs opposition in Aleppo
****


U.N. mediator Staffan de Mistura at Wednesday news conference announcing a 'pause' in peace talks (Reuters)

The Syria "peace talks" being held in Geneva collapsed on Wednesday,
as the opposition walked out because Russian warplanes were saturation
bombing opposition fighters in Aleppo, after Russia had promised to
stop bombing altogether as a precondition to the talks.

A week ago when I wrote "25-Jan-16 World View -- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva"
, I pointed out that
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad used the preceding attempts at
"peace talks" as a cover to continue his genocidal attempts at
extermination of Sunnis in Syria, and that he never had any intention
of fulfilling any commitments he made, as all commitments were just
stalling maneuvers to give him more time to continues his genocide.

The new "peace talks" never had a chance because the Syria and
Russian regimes once again were using it as a cover. The opposition
groups did not want to attend at all, but they sent a representative
under enormous American pressure, under assurances by Secretary
of State John Kerry that the Russians were committed to pause
the bombing at the start of the peace talks.

Instead, when the peace talks supposedly began on Monday, Russia not
only did not pause the bombing, but actually redoubled the bombing on
innocent civilians, thus making a fool of Kerry. According to a
report that I heard from al-Jazeera's United Nations correspondent,
Kerry tried to phone Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, but
Lavrov didn't return his calls.

Syrian regime troops backed by Russian warplanes are now poised
to recapture Aleppo from the opposition rebels. This will be
a major victory of the opposition forces. Rebel forces are
probably entrenched in the town, but that won't be a problem for
the Russians who will bomb and flatten entire village, killing
as many thousands of innocent women and children as necessary.

It still never ceases to amaze me what a disaster the Syrian, Russian
and Iranian regimes have brought about, being entirely to blame for
the mass slaughter of hundreds of thousands of innocent people,
triggering the flight of millions of refugees to Lebanon, Jordan,
Turkey and Europe, and creating the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

As the entire Mideast continues to fall apart in different countries,
as Europe continues to be flooded with Syrian refugees, and as ISIS
affiliations continue to spread around the region, many international
leaders have been hoping and praying that the Syrian peace talks would
bring relief for all these problems.

The desperate Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations special envoy who
is shepherding the negotiations, said that the collapse wasn't really
a collapse, but just a "pause" until February 25. Still, the
air in Geneva, the United Nations and throughout the Mideast
is thick with anxiety and desperation, as many people wonder
what the next disaster will be to strike the Mideast.

For years, Generational Dynamics has predicted that the entire Mideast
is headed for a major war between Jews and Arabs, between Sunni and
Shia Muslims, and among various ethnic groups. Reuters
and Baltimore Sun and Washington Post

****
**** John Kerry warns of ISIS expansion in Syria
****

U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Tuesday that
ISIS is creating a new stronghold in oil-rich Libya:

<QUOTE>"As everybody here knows, that country has resources,”
Kerry said at a conference of 23 foreign ministers from nations
that form the core of a coalition fighting the Islamic State. “The
last thing in the world you’d want is a false caliphate with
access to billions of dollars in oil revenue."<END QUOTE>

As we reported a month ago, reports indicate that the US, Britain, France are preparing a new Libya military offensive
around the beginning of March.

Kerry on Tuesday ruled out military intervention in Libya by the
United States in the near future, but he said that could change if
there were "some turn of events, like weapons of mass destruction
ending up in the hands of the wrong people." Washington Post and NBC News and Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, John Kerry, Russia, Sergei Lavrov,
Staffan de Mistura, Libya

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 5-Feb-16 World View -- Saudi ready to send ground troops into Syria, as regime encircles Aleppo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syrian regime encircles Aleppo, causing new flood of refugees
• Saudi Arabia ready to send ground troops into Syria
• Saudi Arabia sees itself in an existential crisis
• Turkey denies Russian reports of Syria invasion

****
**** Syrian regime encircles Aleppo, causing new flood of refugees
****


Syrian refugees in the Elbeyli refugee camp in Kilis, Turkey (Anadolu)

Syrian regime forces, backed by massive bombing by Russian warplanes,
cut a vital commercial supply route between Turkey and Aleppo, Syria's
largest city. This route is used to provide food, medicines and other
supplies to the more than 2 million people living in Aleppo.

Already, tens of thousands are fleeing from Aleppo. Turkey says that
there are already 10,000 refugees at Turkey's "door," stranded at the
border crossing to Turkey, and 70,000 more are already on the way.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that about
40,000 people have fled the region in the past few days.

There are fears that regime forces will now move south and encircle
and starve Aleppo, as the regime has done in Homs and other cities.
In that case, there may be hundreds of thousands attempting to flee
and head for Turkey.

These are all new refugees that could enter Turkey and then attempt
to reach the Aegean Sea and travel to Europe. Europe has
in the past asked for Turkey's help in slowing the flood
of refugees reaching Europe, and has promised financial
aid for the refugees to encourage them to remain in Turkey.

At an international Syria donors conference held in London on
Thursday, countries pledged billions of dollars in aid for fleeing
refugees. Germany pledged $2.6 billion in aid, the United Kingdom
pledged $1.7 billion and the U.S. pledged about $925 million.

What usually happens with these international aid conferences
is that a lot of money is pledged, but the pledges are forgotten
once the conference and the opportunity for publicity end.
In this case, it's hoped that the pledges will be fulfilled,
because it's the only hope of slowing the flood of refugees.

The conference itself was overshadowed by the collapse of the "peace
talks" in Geneva, as we reported yesterday,
and by today's news of the impending humanitarian
disaster in Aleppo. In addition, there's continues to be increasing
talk about Western military intervention in Libya in the next few
weeks, where ISIS is gaining greater and greater control. The old
post-WW II order in the Mideast is collapsing, and it seems that
barely a day goes by without something new about the collapse.
Deutsche Welle and Bloomberg and Vice News and International Business Times

****
**** Saudi Arabia ready to send ground troops into Syria
****

Saudi Arabia is ready to supply troops for a Western
ground operation in Syria. According to Asiri:

<QUOTE>"If the leaders of the international coalition
unanimously decided to carry out such operations, the kingdom
would be ready to participate in these efforts."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia is part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, and has
carried out more than 190 aerial missions. It's also believed that
the Saudis have previously supplied weapons to moderate rebel groups
in Syria fighting ISIS. The use of ground troops has been hinted at
in the past, but the latest announcement is formal and serious, the
sources said.

The announcement came after the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) claimed responsibility for two suicide bomb attacks on
Shia mosques in Saudi Arabia earlier this month, as well as several
similar attacks last year. Nominally, Saudi troops in Syria would be
fighting ISIS.

Saudi Arabia is already fighting a war in Yemen against Iran-backed
Houthis, and that war appears to be stalemated. Saudi Arabia and Iran
are bitter enemies, and a month ago, the countries broke diplomatic
relations with each other. Saudi troops in Syria might well end up
fighting Iranian troops. Saudi Press Agency and Reuters

****
**** Saudi Arabia sees itself in an existential crisis
****

Saudi Arabia is facing multiple crises, including a crash in
oil prices, its principal source of revenue, and wars in
neighboring countries in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir says that Saudi Arabia has
been unfairly blamed for the 9/11/2001 attacks on the United
States, and that in fact it's Saudi Arabia that's under attack
by terrorists and by Iran:

<QUOTE>"Some try to malign Saudi Arabia by reciting that “15
of the 19” 9/11 hijackers were Saudi. They should know that the
mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, told US
interrogators that the initial plan was to have 20 hijackers from
different nationalities, but late in the planning Osama Bin Laden
directed him to use as many Saudis as possible to give the attack
a Saudi face.

This was likely designed to drive a wedge between the Kingdom and
the US. If this was Osama Bin Laden’s plan, it almost succeeded,
as we saw from the wave of criticism the kingdom experienced after
9/11. ...

“Saudi Arabia has long been a target of terrorism perpetrated by
Iranian proxies. ...

“Many countries have known the grief and pain [terrorism]
causes. It makes no sense for Saudi Arabia to support or condone
those who have as their goal the destruction of Saudi Arabia. It
is against our values, our faith and our national character.

That is why the Kingdom has responded with strength, persistence
and resolve. To accuse the Kingdom of being lax, much less
complicit, when it comes to combating terrorism and its financing
is not only irresponsible but also flies against the face of
reality."<END QUOTE>

It's widely believed that even if Saudi's government is not sponsoring
terrorism, then some powerful Wahhabi Salafi groups within Saudi
Arabia are doing so. Saudi Gazette

****
**** Turkey denies Russian reports of Syria invasion
****

The spokesman for Russia's defense ministry, Major General Igor
Konashenkov, says that Turkey is trying to conceal "illegal" military
activity on its border with Syria. Konashenkov's unsupported claim is
that Turkey is firing artillery into populated areas in the north of
Latakia Province, and is preparing to invade Syria.

According to Konashenkov, "The signs of hidden preparation of Turkish
armed forces for activities in the territory of Syria we notice more
and more."

However, an unnamed source in the office of Turkey's prime minister
told CNN that there are no such plans. "Simply they are diverting
attention from their attacks on civilians as a country already
invading Syria," the source told CNN. "Turkey has all the rights to
take any measures to protect its own security." Russia Today and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Russia, Libya,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Adel Al-Jubeir,
Igor Konashenkov

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey blocks tens of thousands of Aleppo Syria residents from entering Turkey
• As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious
• Iran's historic struggle between Principlists and Reformists

****
**** Turkey blocks tens of thousands of Aleppo Syria residents from entering Turkey
****


Thousands of Syrians massed on the border with Turkey (AFP)

The 300,000 residents of the city of Aleppo, formerly the commercial
hub of Syria, are being used as pawns in a deadly game that will lead
inevitably to mass starvation.

As we reported yesterday,
Syrian
regime troops are encircling Aleppo with the aid of massive Russian
airstrikes on civilian neighborhoods. Tens of thousands of Aleppo
residents are fleeing the city, heading north, hoping to enter Turkey,
and from there to travel on to Europe. However, Turkey has already
taken in 2.5 million Syrians since the war began, and is now blocking
the border, forcing tens of thousands of refugees to mass on the
border.

It's believed to be Russia's strategy to kill as many civilians in
Aleppo as possible, so that the rest will flee to Turkey, leaving the
city abandoned for the regime to take over. Russia would also gain
the advantage of tens of thousands more refugees pouring into Europe.

Turkey apparently plans to try to thwart this strategy by keeping the
border closed. Some reports indicate that Turkey is providing food
and medicine to the Syrians in Syria, effectively making the northern
region of Syria a refugee camp.

Many residents of Aleppo are remaining for now because they know that
the border is closed, and they will be prevented from entering Turkey.
According to one resident, "If people had guarantees they could enter
Turkey, everyone would leave. I would leave." Washington Post and BBC and
Military.com

****
**** As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious
****

Iran's nuclear deal with the West has exposed major generational
political fault lines within Iran's government. Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei was making one demand after another,
apparently to torpedo implementation of the agreement.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the Islamic Republic's founders, a
former president and now head of Iran's Expediency Council, publicly
disagreed with Khamenei's orders and brushed aside Khamenei's new
demands. Eventually, Khamenei had to back down and allow the
agreement to be implemented. ( "29-Oct-15 World View -- Iran's government splits over implementation of nuclear deal"
)

Khamenei is in the generation that fought in the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution and is today in the hardest of the hardline Iranian
political factions. A feature of these hardliners is that they're
using similar tactics to the ones that were successful in 1979,
including the very successful taking of American embassy personnel as
hostages.

Rafsanjani is in the same generation as Khamenei, and adheres to the
same "revolutionary principles," but is considered a "moderate" or
"pragmatic" because he combines these principles with a desire to
modernize Iran and integrate it with the international community.

The political fault line exposed by the nuclear negotiations still
exists and is worsening, with a new election approaching on February
26 to elect a new Majlis (parliament) and Assembly of Experts.

There is now a vicious political battle in progress over which
candidates will be permitted to run in the elections.

In December, Iran's hardline watchdog body, the Guardian Council,
ruled that thousands of potential candidates, almost every one from
the moderate political factions, were to be disqualified from running
in the election. The Guardian Council is under the control of
Khamenei, and is an unelected body of 12 Islamic jurists and hardline
clerics, that can veto election candidates for reasons such as lack of
commitment to Islam and the constitution.

Khamenei said, "Those who don't have faith in the clerical
establishment, should not be allowed to perform a duty."

The objective of the mass disqualifications seems obvious: To prevent
the Majlis from implementing many reform policies favored by
Rafsanjani and the current president, Hassan Rouhani. Khamenei's
remark about "those who don't have faith in the clerical
establishment" was an offensive insult to the moderates, by implying
that their support for political reforms might be treasonous and a
religious apostasy.

Unsurprisingly, this has created a firestorm in Iran, with many
clerics taking offense at the disqualifications. Many pointed out
that Khamenei's act was self-defeating:

Ayatollah Kazem Nourmofidi said, "Disqualification of those who
believe in the Islamic Republic, Islam and the pillars of our system
... will create a deep rift between real believers of our system and
the establishment."

Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheyb, in a letter to the Guardian
Council, said: "You have acknowledged the right of only 30 percent of
our voters, ignoring rights of others. Don't you think it will create
a huge rift between the people and the leadership?"

Even worse, there are concerns that public anger at the Khamenei and
the other hardline geezers is going to trigger massive anti-government
protests. This happened in the 2009 elections, resulting bloody
massacres of peaceful protesters by Khamenei's storm troopers. (From
June 2009: "Iran's Khamenei appears desperate, as reports of Tehran massacres grow"
)

The anxiety over a possible repeat of 2009 seems febrile, as
exemplified by this extraordinary directive from the Herasat Office,
Iran's domestic intelligence and security forces, entitled: "Issue:
Paying workers’ wages in the final days of the year":

<QUOTE>"With greeting and respect, you are hereby informed
that given that the end of the [Persian calendar] year is
approaching and taking note of the instructions handed down by the
minister and competent authorities regarding timely payment of
workers’ wages and back pay, you must instruct that all wages,
bonuses, back pay and overtime pay be paid no later than February
24, 2016 in order to prevent any possible gatherings or sit-ins
and their related negative consequences.

You are reminded that given the upcoming elections of the Assembly
of Experts and Islamic Assembly (Parliament), this issue must be
treated with especial importance and sensitivity in order to
prevent any misuse of this matter for publicity in particular in
the realm of workers’ protests."<END QUOTE>

In other words, a lot of Iranians haven't been paid their salaries,
and the Khamenei regime is ordering that they be paid the money
they're owed by February 24, two days before the election, in the hope
of defusing any potential mass protests. Tasnim News (Iran) and Memri and
Reuters (21-Jan) and National Council of Resistance of Iran

****
**** Iran's historic struggle between Principlists and Reformists
****

America in the 1960s and 1970s was one generation past the end of
World War II, and went through a generational Awakening era, with a
"generation gap" that pitted the generations of war survivors (the GI
and Silent generations) against those who grew up after the war (the
Boomers). The result was "days of rage," street protests, the Summer
of Love, the national Democratic convention riots, the Kent State
shootings, Watergate, and regime change.

Iran is now in a period one generation past the end of its last crisis
war, the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that
climaxed in 1988. Iran is going through a similar "generation gap,"
pitting the Revolution survivors versus the generations growing up
afterwards.

Although there are various splinter groups in Iran's government, they
break down into three major categories:

• The Principlists, mostly consisting of survivors of the 1979
  Great Islamic Revolution, are the most hardline, demanding that
  society continue to adhere to the "principles" set by the 1979
  Revolution.
  
• The Pragmatics or Moderates are mostly in the same generation as
  the Principlists, and adhere to Principlist concepts, but wish to
  institute some reforms, including a closer relationship with the
  West.
  
• The Reformists, mostly consisting of younger generations that have
  grown up after the 1979 Revolution, are still "conservative" by
  Western standards, but are demanding reforms of the hardline rules,
  including deep political reforms and even regime change. They
  typically fight for the same issues as American Boomers in the 1960s
  -- greater freedom in gender issues, greater freedom of speech and
  protest, and reluctance to engage in foreign wars.

Iran's constitution contains a central contradiction that's caused one
political crisis after another: the assumption that elected
institutions would function in harmony with the rulings handed down by
religious jurists.

Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of the Islamic
Republic, assumed that, in a rightly ordered state, God's will (as
determined by the clerics) and the people's will (as manifested
through elections) would coincide. This happened during the first
years of the generational Recovery era following the crisis war. But
as young people with no personal memories of the war entered their
teen years, anti-government protests began, and had to be violently
put down by bloody massacres.

The first major political defeat of the hardliners occurred in the
1997, to replace Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as president, when the
victory went to Reformist cleric Muhammad Khatami. There were more
reformer victories in the 2000 parliamentary elections, gaining more
than two-thirds of the seats.

In the 2004 parliamentary elections, the Guardian Council disqualified
thousands of pro-reform candidates from competing for seats, just as
they're still doing in the 2016 parliamentary elections.

With the younger generations of Reformists increasingly moving into
positions of power, and as the Principlists die off, the remaining
hardliners have been panicking and using the Guardian Council to quash
any attempts at political reform, and bloody massacres by the security
police to prevent any street protests from becoming effective.

Since then, the moderate Rafsanjani has led the "pragmatists" in their
attempt to resolve the constitutional contradiction, by reconciling
the injunctions of the Islamic Revolution with the democratic norms
espoused by the West. Rafsanjani has had to be careful to reject the
Reformists' demands for regime change, so as not to risk being jailed.
(Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi Rafsanjani was jailed last year for
the crime of "inciting unrest" in 2009.)

Both Khamenei and Rafsanjani are founding members of the Islamic
Republic; they both fought in the Islamic Revolution; they're in the
same generation. But they're bitter political enemies because
Rafsanjani wants to implement political reforms that Khamenei
dogmatically opposes. The February 26 elections provide the backdrop
for a dramatic new battle in their relationship. Eurasia Review and Memri and
Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Council on Foreign Relations (August 2004) and BBC (15-Mar-2015)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Russia,
Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
Expediency Council, Guardian Council, Majlis, Kazem Nourmofidi,
Ali Mohammad Dastgheyb, Herasat Office, Principlists, Reformists,
Moderates, Pragmatists, Rouhollah Khomeini, Muhammad Khatami

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 7-Feb-16 World View -- Iran, Syria and Russia ridicule Saudi Arabia's army

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey will keep Syria border closed as Aleppo refugees mass
• Europe sends mixed messages to Turkey about new flood of Syrian refugees
• Syria, Iran and Russia ridicule Saudi Arabia's army
• Turkey confiscates parrots and parakeets on Syria border
• North Korea launches long-range missile, violating Security Council resolution

****
**** Turkey will keep Syria border closed as Aleppo refugees mass
****


A boy on a fence watches thousands of Syrians massed on the border with Turkey in the cold and rain (AFP)

As Syrian regime forces and Russian warplanes continue to pound
civilian targets in Aleppo and cut off supply routes, people fleeing
Aleppo will not be permitted to cross the border into Turkey,
according to Süleyman Tapsiz, the governor of Turkey's Kilis province,
which borders Syria. Tapsiz says that 35,000 people are already
massed on the border with Turkey, and 70,000 more are expected in the
next few days.

"Our doors are not closed, but at the moment there is no need to host
such people inside our borders," said Tapciz. Refugees are being
directed to refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border, and
they're being given food, blankets and tents. AFP and Cihan (Turkey) and Reuters

****
**** Europe sends mixed messages to Turkey about new flood of Syrian refugees
****

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini urged Turkey on Saturday to
reopen its border to "Syrians in need for international protection,"
and allow tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to come to Turkey to
seek asylum. Mogherini that "the support that the EU is providing to
Turkey, among others, is aimed exactly at guaranteeing" that Turkey
can protect and host people that are seeking asylum.

As Syrian regime forces encircle Aleppo with the help of massive
Russian warplane airstrikes, it's believed that are remaining in
Aleppo because they have no place to go, and that hundred of thousands
more civilians would flee north to Turkey if they believed that they
could cross the border.

Also on Saturday, another EU official, European Commissioner Johannes
Hahn, said that Turkey must slow down the flow of refugees from Turkey
into Greece, something that Turkey has failed to do, despite a
November 29 deal to reduce the flows. According to Hahn:

<QUOTE>"This action plan was agreed more than two months ago
and we are still not seeing a significant decline in the number of
migrants, Turkey could do more, I have no doubt."<END QUOTE>

On November 29, the EU has agreed to give Turkey 3 billion euros ($3.2
billion) to keep Syrian refugees on its soil in return for an
acceleration of the EU accession talks and speeded-up visa
liberalization for Turks visiting Europe.

Europe's message is even more confusing because it's losing control of
its own borders. Earlier this week, the EU said Greece had to
re-establish full control over its border with Turkey. According to
Hungary's foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto: “If Greece is not ready
or able to protect the Schengen zone and doesn’t accept any assistance
from the EU then we need another defense line, which is obviously
Macedonia and Bulgaria.”

The Schengen zone is a group of 25 European countries that permit
visa-free border crossings among them. Free travel between countries
is considered to be a right that's at the core of European Union.
However, the Schengen zone is already in trouble because of the flood
of refugees. Six Schengen members, including Germany and four other
EU countries, have resorted to reinstating temporary border checks, at
least until May. AP and Zaman (Ankara) and Guardian (London)

****
**** Syria, Iran and Russia ridicule Saudi Arabia's army
****

As we reported two days ago,
Saudi
Arabia announced that it is ready to send ground troops into Syria to
fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The
announcement was apparently triggered by Russia's massive bombing of
Aleppo.

Theoretically, Russian warplanes are fighting ISIS, but in fact
they're leaving ISIS completely untouched and are carpet bombing
civilians linked to moderate opposition to Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. The same is also true of Syrian troops and Iranian troops.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia says that they're going to be fighting ISIS,
but in fact they're going to be supporting the same groups that the
Russians are carpet-bombing.

So even though the Russians, Syrians, Iranians and the Saudis all talk
about fighting ISIS, they're actually going to be fighting each other.
And if Turkey enters the fray, which is certainly possible, then we'll
have a full-scale regional sectarian war in progress, with Russia,
Syria and Iran fighting Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Now both Iran and Syria are turning up the nationalistic fury by
ridiculing and insulting Saudi Arabia's army.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have already terminated diplomatic relations, as
of early January. Maj. Gen. Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran's
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), said on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"They claim they will send troops (to Syria), but I
don't think they will dare do so. They have a classic army and
history tells us such armies stand no chance in fighting irregular
resistance forces.

This will be like a coup de grace for them. Apparently, they see
no other way but this, and if this is the case, then their fate is
sealed."<END QUOTE>

Syria's foreign minister Walid Muallem has warned responded to Saudi
Arabia's announced with a warning:

<QUOTE>"Any ground intervention on Syrian territory without
government authorization would amount to aggression that must be
resisted.

Let no one think they can attack Syria or violate its sovereignty
because I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in
a wooden coffin."<END QUOTE>

The mocking and ridicule didn't stop there. Maria Zakharova, the
spokesman for Russia's foreign ministry, treated the reports with
sarcasm: "I’m afraid to ask, have they already defeated everybody in
Yemen?" CNN and Russia Today

****
**** Turkey confiscates parrots and parakeets on Syria border
****

Turkey's army has has confiscated 700 parrots and 294 budgerigars on
the border with Syria. The border closings have also shut off what
was long a thriving illicit trade in goods including fuel, cigarettes,
and sugar, as well as rare birds.

According to Mehmet Turan, a bird breeder in the Turkish border town
of Reyhanli:

<QUOTE>"They were generally bringing Sultan, Love and
Paradise parrots. Here in Turkey a Paradise parrot goes for 1,000
lira, but they were bringing them over for 500.

It's the same for lovebirds. We were selling them at 25 lira
retail, but they came from Syria at 12.5 to 15."<END QUOTE>

Reuters

****
**** North Korea launches long-range missile, violating Security Council resolution
****

North Korea on Sunday morning launched a long-range ballistic missile
test. North Korea claimed it was a test with the intention to put a
satellite into orbit, but it's believed that N. Korea is using the
satellite claim as a cover for its test deployment of a long-range
nuclear-capable ballistic missile, in violation of a U.N. Security
Council resolution.

North Korea had pre-announced the test, saying that it was planned for
some time between February 8 and 25, but then moved the launch date up
and abruptly launched the missile.

Japan had been preparing for the launch by deploying land-based
missile interceptors on its southwestern islands around Okinawa, with
plans to shoot the missile down if it headed for Japanese territory.

There have been no reports of any Japanese launches following the
North Korean launch. CNN and Nikkei (Japan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Turkey, Kilis, Süleyman Tapsiz,
European Union, Federica Mogherini, Johannes Hahn, Greece,
Macedonia, Bulgaria, Schengen Zone, Hungary, Peter Szijjarto,
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ali Jafari, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Walid Muallem, Maria Zakharova, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Mehmet Turan, Reyhanli, Love and Paradise parrots,
North Korea, Japan, Okinawa

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

"Young people love Sanders because college is free." - a young
person quoted on CNBC

"Bernie Sanders’s fiction-filled campaign" - WaPost
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...cc8_story.html


Sanders and Trump are quite comparable because they're both
total loons and both total disasters. Either would be the
worst president in US histoc


The fact that two total loons are wildly popular in their respective
parties just shows how we're headed for disaster.

--- Bernie's a loon bcuz he supports free colleges? Like in other countries? You do know that college education used to be cheap to affordable in this country until Ronnie Raygun came along & gutted higher education programs

& you do know that WaPo is in the bag for Hillary? Bill's own Labor Secretary has written articles refuting their screeds, such as this one:

http://robertreich.org/post/130312224165

170 economists have endorsed Bernie's economic proposals:

http://www.inquisitr.com/2709907/170...t-reform-plan/

-- there's some pretty heavy hitters among those economists
Far from being a loon Bernie's the only candidate making any sense

*** 8-Feb-16 World View -- Plans continue for Western military deployment into Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Plans continue for Western military deployment into Libya
• UAE says it's ready to supply ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria

****
**** Plans continue for Western military deployment into Libya
****


At Republican Debate, Jeb Bush advocates military intervention into Libya

As we've been reporting since the beginning of January, plans are
being made in Washington, London, Paris and Rome for military
intervention in Libya in the next few weeks, probably in March, to
counter the rise of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016"
)

Reports indicate that the government of Britain's prime minister David
Cameron is making preparations for a military intervention in Libya in
the next few weeks. "Italians are doing a lot of surveillance,
identification of targets for possible bombing by the British and
Americans," according to a British analyst.

British opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said there were “growing signs
that the British Government may be preparing to intervene militarily
again in Libya," and he's demanding that the Parliament be given a
chance to debate any future plans for military intervention in Libya:

<QUOTE>"The Prime Minister should report to Parliament on
what steps have already been taken – and, in particular, whether
UK drones are being used to support armed forces or militias in
Libya’s civil war by gathering intelligence for one side or the
other.

We need an unequivocal assurance that no decision has been taken
to use drones, over which Britain has control or partial control,
in support of military operations in Libya. And he must make a
clear commitment that MPs will be given the chance to debate in
advance any decision to renew British military intervention in
Libya."<END QUOTE>

During Saturday evening's Republican candidate debate, there was one
question about Libya asked of two candidates, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson.
The question and Bush's answer were (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Question: Governor Bush, Libya is a country in chaos,
there is no government. Defense officials said this week that
there are now 5,000 ISIS fighters there roughly doubling
previous estimates. We know you and others have been critical of
the administration's handling of initial airstrikes that you
supported. This is a problem you would stand to inherit if you're
the next president. Reports this week said the administration is
considering new air strikes, possible special operations raids.
Would you support renewed airstrikes or any US involvement on the
ground?

Bush: I would, and I would do it in concert again with our Arab
allies, and with Europe most particularly in this case. This is
the lesson learned in history: if you bomb something and not do
anything as it relates to deal with the aftermath of this, if you
don't have a stable government, you get what we have in Libya, and
leading from behind is not an effective policy. We have to lead.
Without the United States, nothing seems to work. Europe doesn't
seem to have the ability to forward lead in this regard. And so
dealing with the caliphate is important because it has now spawned
in other areas, there have been 70+ attacks in 17 countries either
inspired by ISIS or organized by ISIS, Libya being the most
important one now.

We have to deal with the caliphate with building a Sunni army
there, but we also have to deal with it in Libya, and I think the
United States is ultimately is going to play a significant role in
this.

The problem with the Obama administration is that they see this
incrementally. They're reluctant. They don't lead. No one knows
whether we're serious. And when they do it, they do it in
increments that you can barely see. The United States has to lead
in a much more aggressive way than we're doing right
now."<END QUOTE>

Ben Carson's response was as follows:

<QUOTE>"Carson: I wanna something say about this, because I'm
not here just to add beauty to the stage. You know I've been
talking about Libya for quite a long time. I think I was the first
one to start talking about it. Because we have to have a
proactive foreign policy strategy, and of course the next place
that ISIS is gonna tack to is Libya. If you wanna expand your
caliphate, and increase your influence, then you're gonna wanna go
to a place that's strategically located. You go north across the
Mediterranean, you're into southern Europe; you go south, you're
into Chad and Sudan and Niger, and not to mention the fact you
have much more oil than you do in Iraq.

That's the kind of places they're gonna go to. Therefore, we need
to be thinking about how to prevent them from tacking over there.
They're already sending their fighters there. We need to be
consulting with our military experts and asking them, what do they
need in order to prevent ISIS from being able to take over Libya.
That's gonna have enormous consequences."<END QUOTE>

A British government spokesman said: "The UK, along with international
partners, is supporting the process to form a recognized Libyan
government. No decisions have been made about the future deployment of
any British military forces to Libya as part of an international
coalition force." Independent (London)

****
**** UAE says it's ready to supply ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria
****

United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Sunday joined Saudi Arabia in saying
that it was ready to supply ground
troops to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) in Syria, raising the possibility of even greater foreign
involvement in the five-year-old civil war.

According to Foreign Affairs minister Anwar Gargas:

<QUOTE>"I think that this has been our position throughout
... that a real campaign against Daesh has to include ground
elements. ...

We are not talking about a thousand troops but we are talking
about troops on the ground that will lead the way, that will
train, that will support ... And I think our position remains the
same and we will have to see how this progresses. ...

Of course an American leadership in this effort is a
pre-requisite."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia has already announced that it was ready to send ground
troops into Syria, though as we reported yesterday,
Iran, Syria and Russia responded to Saudi
Arabia's announcement by ridiculing the Saudi army.

In related news, tens of thousands of Syrian refugees continue to flee
from Aleppo, as Russian airstrikes slaughter large numbers of
civilians, and as Syria, Iranian and Hezbollah troops continue to
encircle the town, preparing for the final siege and mass slaughter.

Turkey, which is hosting 2.5 million Syrians, says that it's "at
capacity," and cannot accept any more Syrian refugees. However,
Turkey has set up 8 refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border,
and is pouring tents, food and other supplies into the refugee camps.
The intent, presumably, is to meet its international obligations to
care for refugees, but doing it on Syria's soil, rather than Turkey's.
Reuters and Gulf Today (UAE) and USA Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Britain, David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn,
Jeb Bush, Ben Carson,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Anwar Gargas,
Syria, Aleppo, Russi, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bangladesh covers up Tibetan art after China threat
• Desperate China official rapidly selling of foreign currency reserves
• Monday's stock market plunge blamed on China and on weak earnings
• Hong Kong experiences worst violence in years

****
**** Bangladesh covers up Tibetan art after China threat
****


Dhaka Art Summit is the biggest art show in Bangladesh with about 300 South Asian artists participating

Bangladesh's biggest art show, the Dhaka Arts Summit, was forced to
cover up an exhibit by Tibetan artists, due to threats from China's
ambassador. The exhibit page homage to 149 Tibetans who had
self-immolated (burned themselves to death) to protest China's
policies. The exhibit displays five letters written by Tibetan
protesters before they burned themselves.

According to the artist:

<QUOTE>"They had to be covered because the Chinese ambassador
to Bangladesh (Ma Mingqiang) found the works offensive, during a
visit to the summit on Saturday.

We were told by the curator (Diana Campbell Betancourt) that he
exploded as soon as he saw it and asked the works to be removed
immediately or face consequences."<END QUOTE>

The nature of the "consequences" was not explained.

China heavily censors art displays within China, and now is censoring
art displays in other countries. AFP and Indian Express

****
**** Desperate China official rapidly selling of foreign currency reserves
****

People used to say that the U.S. was so deeply in debt to China that
China could blackmail the U.S. by simply threatening to sell off all
the Treasury bonds that it owns. In those days, the U.S. was
importing so much from China that China had to buy US Treasuries to
help the balance of payments between the two countries.

Those days are long gone now, with the American dollar steadily
strengthening and China's economy steadily weakening.

For a number of months, China's economy has been weakening, months,
and the government has had to battle a stock market rout, slowing
factory production and falling exports last year, and causing China's
renminbi (yuan) currency to weaken. The People's Bank of China (PBoC)
central bank has responded by selling its holdings of foreign
currencies (dollars, yen, euros) in order to buy up yuan on the
international markets, thereby increasing the demand for yuan and
preventing it from weakening further. The PBoC fears that there could
be an international run on yuan currency, causing a rapid devaluation,
and destabilizing China's economy.

So it still came as a surprise that China's foreign currency reserves
plunged $99.5 billion in January. In other words, China sold off
almost $100 billion in dollars, yen and euros in order to purchase
yuan, to prevent a devaluation.

At $3.23 trillion, China still has the world's biggest reserve of
foreign currency holdings. But that has declined by $420 billion in
just the last six months, and is now at the lowest level since May
2012.

According to one analyst, "While the remaining reserves still
represent a substantial war chest, the mathematics around this rapid
pace of depletion in recent months is simply unsustainable for any
length of time."

That means that the yuan is continuing to lose value, and analysts are
expecting the PBoC to devalue the yuan by substantial further amounts
in the next few months.

Already, the yuan has declined 1.24% against the dollar so far this
year.

In fact, the yuan may be in a vicious deflationary spiral. Forex
(foreign exchange) investors see that that the yuan is going to be
devalued so they are selling yuan to purchase dollar-denominate assets
-- the exact opposite of what the PBoC is doing. Investors selling
yuan will cause the yuan to devalue further, causing investors to sell
even more.

According to this analyst: “Domestic private investors and global
currency traders see a one-way bet against the currency. This has
resulted in large-scale private capital outflows since early 2015 as
expectations mount that the PBoC will eventually be forced to
capitulate once its reserves are sufficiently depleted."

Devaluing a currency makes the country's products cheaper on the
international markets, and so makes the country more competitive,
increasing exports. That's what China would like.

But there are many emerging market countries, especially China's
neighbors in Asia, whose economies depend heavily on trade with China,
and so they're devaluing their own currencies in sympathy with China.
The concern is that this will be a different kind of vicious cycle, as
countries compete with each other to "race to the bottom," with
devaluations in one country triggering further devaluations in other
countries.

A "race to the bottom" among Asian and emerging market currencies
could have a substantial effect on the U.S. economy, since the dollar
is expected to strengthen substantially in this scenario, making
American goods extremely expensive on world markets. This could
dramatically reduce exports, reducing earnings, and causing the stock
market to tumble, which is part of the explanation for what happened
on Monday. BBC
and Bloomberg and International Business Times

****
**** Monday's stock market plunge blamed on China and on weak earnings
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 21.40 on February 5, indicating a huge stock market bubble (WSJ)

Monday was another dramatic day on Wall Street, as the day began with
a 400+ point drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), with oil
prices falling once again below $30 per barrel. By the end of the
day, the stock market recovered to "only" a 178 point loss. Analysts
are mostly confused about why the stock market has been falling
recently, and I frequently see them on tv scratching their heads
wondering why such a "small economy" like China's is having such a big
effect on Wall Street.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's
Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (February 5) was at an
astronomically high 21.40. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

If you compare stock price and P/E ratio changes in the last month,
there are some interesting observations. Last week, on the moring of
February 5, the Dow was at 16417 and the S&P 500 P/E ratio was at
21.40.

A month ago, on the morning of January 8, stock prices were higher,
but the P/E ratio was lower. Specifically, the Dow was at 16514, and
the P/E ratio was 21.03.

Now that should be impossible. The P/E ratio is, well, a ratio of
stock prices to earnings, and so if stock prices fall, then the P/E
ratio should fall as well.

But of course, that's not always true, because the earnings may change
as well. What's been happening is that fourth quarter (4Q2015)
earnings have been coming out in the last month,

In fact, 63% of S&P 500 companies reported results as of Friday
morning, and Q4 earnings are on track to decline 4.1%. This is even
worse than the 3.7% decline that analysts had been predicting at the
beginning of January.

The 4.1% decline in Q4 earnings would be the biggest drop in six
years, and it follows a 0.8% decline in Q3. Revenue figures followed
the same path, with revenue falling 3.5% in Q4, after falling 4.4% in
Q3.

And so, the reason that the P/E ratio increased in the last month,
despite the fact that stock prices have fallen, is that earnings have
fallen even more.

If earnings decline two quarters in a row, then it's called an
"earnings recession." We won't know for several months whether the
GDP also fell for two quarters in a row, which would be the definition
of an "economic recession."

The stock market has been in a bubble for several years. Although
analysts are always claiming that "this time it's different," the fact
is that it's never different, and Generational Dynamics is predicting
a stock market panic and crash, with the Dow falling to 3000 or lower.
USA Today and Barrons and Investors Business Daily

****
**** Hong Kong experiences worst violence in years
****

Dozens of people, including several Hong Kong policemen, were injured
in some of the worst Hong Kong violence in years.

With the Lunar New Year celebrations in progress, police were called
in to shut down illegal food stalls and food hawkers in the main
shopping district. "Pro-democracy" activists had been prepared for
the arrival of the police. Around 100 protesters began throwing
missiles, including paving stones, bricks, bottles and plant pots at
officers. They also set fires and blocked roads, while the police
fired warning shots over the crowd. Coconuts Hong Kong


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bangladesh, Dhaka Art Summit, China,
People's Bank of China, PBoC, foreign exchange reserves,
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 10-Feb-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey head for clash on Syria border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mass exodus from Aleppo continues amid reports Russians are using cluster bombs
• United Nations demands that Turkey admit tens of thousands of Syrian refugees
• Turkey border 'buffer zone' could result in clash with Syrian army

****
**** Mass exodus from Aleppo continues amid reports Russians are using cluster bombs
****


Refugee camp in northern Syria on border with Turkey on Monday (AP)

Russian warplanes continue to pound civilians, causing tens of
thousands more to flee the city.

A report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) says that Russian warplanes used
cluster bombs in at least 14 attacks across five provinces since
January 26. Cluster bombs open in flight and scatter dozens of
explosive munitions over wide areas. They're particularly effective
in killing large numbers of civilians over a wide area.

The United Nations has warned that hundreds of thousands of civilians
could starve if, as feared, forces loyal to the Syrian government
encircle Aleppo and submit it to a siege, backed by Russian warplanes.
It said that a huge new wave of refugees would be forced to flee from
a Russian-backed assault. Independent (London) and Fox News and AP

****
**** United Nations demands that Turkey admit tens of thousands of Syrian refugees
****

Thousands more Syrians continue to flee Syrian army forces and Russian
warplanes pounding Aleppo, and are joining the tens of thousands
already massed on the border with Turkey.

The Red Crescent (the Islamic branch of the International Red Cross)
has been overseeing refugee camps in Turkey, as well as aid to
hundreds of thousands of refugees in Turkey, and is now providing
eight tent camps and humanitarian aid for refugees in Syria massed on
the border with Turkey. They have provided 2,000 tents, as well as
blankets, food, water, and hygiene kits.

However, aid groups say that tents on the Syrian side of the border
are overcrowded and that food is in short supply. The United Nations
is demanding that Turkey open its border to "all civilians who are
fleeing danger and seeking international protection as they have done
since the start of this crisis."

There are two major reasons why Turkey is reluctant to open its border
to tens of thousands more refugees:

• Once it was known that the border was open, tens of thousands
  more refugees would leave Aleppo for Turkey, making the problem even
  worse.
  
• Turkey is already hosting 3 million refugees, 2.5 million of whom
  are Syrian. Turkey has said that it's "at capacity," and can't handle
  any more refugees.

Some Turkish columns are calling European Union calls to open the
border "a joke":

<QUOTE>"It’s almost like a bad joke. At the very moment when
EU member states are doing their utmost to close their borders to
Syrian refugees, the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Frederica Mogherini
is calling on Ankara to admit the tens of thousands of refugees
piled up on Turkey’s borders near the town of Kilis, following the
recent advances near Aleppo by al-Assad regime forces supported by
Russia and Iran.

Mogherini is saying that there is a moral if not legal duty to
provide protection to these people. According to her, the EU is
also providing funds to ensure that Turkey has “the means, the
instruments, and the resources to protect and host the people who
are seeking asylum.”

This appears to be no more than a flimsy attempt to retain a moral
high ground against Turkey at a time when Europe is reacting
deplorably to the refugee crisis and therefore has much to answer
for. What Mogherini says also completely disregards what Turkey
has been doing for the past four years."<END QUOTE>

Turkish columnists also note that the EU has promised financial aid
for refugees in Turkey, but that the financial aid hasn't
materialized. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Washington Post

****
**** Turkey border 'buffer zone' could result in clash with Syrian army
****

There's another, more strategic reason why Turkey is setting up
refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border near Aleppo.

For four years, Turkey has advocated setting up a "buffer zone" on the
Syrian side of the border, starting at a time when hundreds of new
refugees were entering Turkey each day rather than many thousands.
Turkey received no international support for the idea, because of the
concern that it would bring Turkey's army into conflict with Syria's
army. ( "17-Mar-12 World View -- Turkey once again talks about a 'buffer zone' in Syria"
)

Now, with tens of thousands of Syrian refugees massed on Turkey's
border, Turkey has managed to set up a de facto buffer zone.
Turkey considers this even more urgently needed today not only because
of the larger mass of refugees, but also because Turkey wants to
prevent the hated Kurds from creating a de facto Kurdish state
along the entire border, from western Syria all the way west into
Iraq.

However, the concerns today about a clash with Syria's army are just
as real. Syrian officials are making it clear that they intend to
"control the borders" with Turkey.

In an interview, Bouthaina Shaaban, advisor to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, said:

<QUOTE>"[There would be no letup in an army advance, which
aimed] "to liberate cities and villages that were controlled by
the terrorists for 3-1/2 years, and also an attempt to liberate
the city of Aleppo from the crimes of terrorism.

[We intend] to control our borders with Turkey, because Turkey is
the main source of terrorists, and the main crossing for them. ...

We hope that the operation will continue in the north until we
control the borders and stop the terrorists who Turkey has since
the start of the crisis worked to send to Syria."<END QUOTE>

This is not something that Turkey would want to see, as it would
certainly mean Kurdish control of the entire length of the border
between Syria and Turkey.

Perhaps Turkey will back down and let the masses of refugees into
Turkey, and allow the Syrian army to take control of the border
region. Or, perhaps Syria will back down, and allow Turkey to keep
its de facto buffer zone in Syria along the border.

Syrian army forces are already just 25 km from Turkey's border. If
neither side backs down, then there will be a clash in the next few
weeks.

As long time readers know, Generational Dynamics has predicted for
years that the entire Mideast is headed for a major war between Jews
and Arabs, between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and among various ethnic
groups. Things have been moving very quickly for the last few months,
and each new week seems to have some event that brings that prediction
closer to fruition. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Turkey, Russia,
Human Rights Watch, HRW, Red Crescent, Frederica Mogherini,
Bashar al-Assad, buffer zone, Bouthaina Shaaban

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 11-Feb-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan splits further with US, blaming it for a 'sea of blood'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pentagon deploying hundreds of troops to Helmand in Afghanistan
• Turkey's Erdogan splits further with US, blaming it for a 'sea of blood'

****
**** Pentagon deploying hundreds of troops to Helmand in Afghanistan
****


US soldiers in Afghanistan (AFP)

With the Taliban resurgent in Helmand province in Afghanistan, the US
will deploy a force described as "battalion strength," probably around
800 troops, to the region to support the Afghan military. US troops
have already been involved in combat against the Taliban recently in
Helmand, including an hours-long battle last month. But in keeping
with Barack Obama’s formal declaration that the US is not engaged in
combat, defense officials said the additional troops would not take
part in combat.

According to Brig. Gen. Wilson Shoffner, a U.S. military spokesman in
Afghanistan:

<QUOTE>"The battalion will bring a small number of trainers
to assist with the efforts to re-man, re-equip, and re-train the
215th Corps, but its primary mission will remain force protection.
This is not a new force protection mission, but an enhancement of
the existing force protection mission to increase the capacity of
our current train, advise and assist efforts."<END QUOTE>

The new deployment will not increase the number of American troops in
Afghanistan. The additional forces will be taken from the 9,800
troops already in the country. The advisors and infantry will come
from the 10th Mountain Division.
Army Times and Guardian (London)

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan splits further with US, blaming it for a 'sea of blood'
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday signaled a major
split with the Obama administration by accusing it of adopting a
policy that has turned the Mideast into "a sea of blood."

On the same day, Frances outgoing foreign minister Laurent Fabius also
blamed President Obama for inaction that's led to numerous setbacks in
Syria, and said that he doubted that Obama would follow through on
previous promises to back Syria's moderate opposition:

<QUOTE>"There are ambiguities including among the actors of
the coalition. I'm not going to repeat what I've said before
about the main pilot [Barack Obama] of the coalition... but we don't
have the feeling that there is a very strong commitment there.

I don't think that the end of Mr. Obama's mandate will push him to
act as much as his minister [secretary of state John Kerry]
declares."<END QUOTE>

While Fabius merely blamed Obama for inaction, Erdogan blamed Obama
for specific actions -- namely supporting the YPG, the armed wing of
the Kurds in Syria. The US has been supporting the YPG as its foot
soldiers in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh). However, the YPG has ties to the PKK in Turkey,
which an internationally recognized separatist terrorist group that
has been conducting terror attacks in Turkey for decades.
Furthermore, the YPG is allied with Russia, which is now a bitter
enemy of Turkey.

Erdogan on Wednesday said that Obama has to make a decision whether
his ally is Turkey or the YPG:

<QUOTE>"Hey, America. Because you never recognized them as a
terrorist group, the region has turned into a sea of blood.

“We have written proof! We tell the Americans, ‘It’s a terror
group.’ But the Americans stand up and say, ‘No, we don’t see them
as terror groups.' ...

Am I your regional partner or are the terrorists in Kobani [the
YPG]? ...

They [US officials] do not say anything to our faces, but they
make different statements elsewhere. It is not possible to
understand what type of partnership this is."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan added that it's impossible to trust America at this point.

Erdogan indicated that Turkey would break with American policy and
implement its own solution, referring to his proposal to create a safe
zone or buffer zone in northern Syria. As we wrote yesterday ( "10-Feb-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey head for clash on Syria border"
), Erdogan appears to be
taking advantage of the tens of thousands of Syrian refugees massed on
Turkey's border by setting up refugee camps in Syria, effective
creating a de facto buffer zone. CNN and Daily Caller and Vice News and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taliban, Afghanistan, Helmand, Willam Shoffner,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, France, Laurent Fabius,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Trump and Sanders won the latest rounds of the primary. Trump will most likely win because for the following reasons: the clash between "establishment" and "outsider" support is primarily ideological; The people hate the ideological delusions of the establishment. The extreme selfishness of the boomer elites in refusing to carpet bomb cities in retaliation for terrorist attacks, that same selfishness displayed when boomer elites like Clinton and bush deride trump for supporting torture and execution of captured enemies. The Same selfishness that comes up routinely when boomers configure the US to be oriented around open-borders, open-immigration and a political and military posture configured toward a globalist defense force rather than a nationalist-based military posture. Xers and Millies are saying to boomers: we will fight a future war if the objective is to conquer and used conquered enemy as a captive market to advance our economy for further expansion. But we will not fight for boomer liberalism; Xers and millies despise the ethos of "fighting primarily for democracy" and "sacrificing your own interests for those of 'world democracy'". The current policies regarding the defense of Japan, Korea, Ukraine, etc. mentioned in the politico article I posted a couple weeks ago are only the most prominent aspects of the current policy that is being criticized by the populist candidates.

http://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2015/12...acy-in-trouble

Obama is a Gen-Xer.

“I’m very capable of changing to anything I want to change to." -- Trump

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Obama is a Gen-Xer.

A cusper and one who looks up to boomer-left mentors. Hillary has basically said she would continue the governments policies as they are. Trump Has essentially promised to liquidate our treaties with Ukraine, Taiwan, etc.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

A cusper and one who looks up to boomer-left mentors. Hillary has basically said she would continue the governments policies as they are. Trump Has essentially promised to liquidate our treaties with Ukraine, Taiwan, etc.

Did you read the previous posting? Trump is saying that you can't trust
him on anything he says.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Did you read the previous posting? Trump is saying that you can't trust
him on anything he says.

In the late 1920s/beginning of the 1930s there was a moderate sized country in central europe that had fallen into such decline that it was a shell of its former self, so much so that by the early 1930s that country was regarded as a laughingstock by the world community due to the incompetence of the prophet archetype. Then a new generation came to power. By the tenth year after the new generation came to power that country had not only put its house back in order but then it had conquered practically the entirety of one continent and their armies were advancing into two more continents. At the same it had allies who had conquered a large chunk of another continent and whose navy and amphibious forces were advancing toward two more continents.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> In the late 1920s/beginning of the 1930s there was a moderate
> sized country in central europe that had fallen into such decline
> that it was a shell of its former self, so much so that by the
> early 1930s that country was regarded as a laughingstock by the
> world community due to the incompetence of the prophet
> archetype. Then a new generation came to power. By the tenth year
> after the new generation came to power that country had not only
> put its house back in order but then it had conquered practically
> the entirety of one continent and their armies were advancing into
> two more continents. At the same it had allies who had conquered a
> large chunk of another continent and whose navy and amphibious
> forces were advancing toward two more continents.

And who was then thoroughly humiliated in defeat in which its entire
infrastructure was destroyed, split into four regions controlled by
four different countries, not permitted to reunite for almost 50
years, and forced to apologize for its behavior for many decades after
that.