Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 21-Mar-16 World View -- Pentagon to expand a secret military firebase in Iraq after Marine killed

T
****
**** Pentagon to expand a secret military firebase in Iraq after Marine killed
****

On Saturday, Sgt. Louis F. Cardin of the 26th Marine Expeditionary
Unit, Camp Lejeune, was killed in Iraq by a rocket fired by the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) from 15 km away.
Several other Marines were wounded. A second rocket fell harmlessly
to the ground.

Hmmm.... That base and everything else in the Mideast needs to be shut down, not expanded. The US is just so stupid that way. I just wonder when IS is gonna lob some Cl2 their way?

The Pentagon had initially announced Cardin's death as being from
"indirect fire," but the death has revealed the existence of a
previously secret firebase in Iraq, occupied by a "couple of hundred"
Marines living in tents near Makhmour in northern Iraq. ISIS had
apparently identified the firebase by observing soldiers moving
around. The Pentagon plans to expand the firebase further with
Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit to fight ISIS.

Hey! I have a great remodeling idea, John. Let's change the shape of the military headquarters from a pentagon into a pentagram. That way, we get true advertising.


The press can say "Pentagram spokesmen stated off the record, the US did another blunder".
A "firebase" is a small remote location designed to use its artillery
to support infantry troops at forward locations. The Pentagram says
that they had planned to reveal the existence of the firebase later
this week.

President Obama has said many times that there would never be "any
kind of military action that would involve boots on the ground." Like
many of his campaign promises, his promises of complete withdrawal
from Iraq and Afghanistan have not been kept.

Yup.

Cardin is the second American that has been killed in combat with ISIS
in Iraq since the U.S. reentered the country in late 2014. In October,

• A woman who should be elected just because she's a woman
  even though she has thrown any and all fellow women under the bus
  if they've had any involvement with her husband - including rape!
  Oh and by the way she's being investigated by 100+ FBI agents for
  a variety of things - things that if any normal person had done
  they would be in prison for now. A GREAT choice.

They're both crooks and Shillary's been one since Watergate days. I also think Shillary has a pentagram tattoo on her ass.

• Another narcissist - one of the most insulting and
  inflammatory individuals I've ever seen in politics. Any time any
  one disagrees with him - he responds with personal attacks. He has
  no coherent policy - but a great slogan. Oh.. and although most
  Republicans really aren't racist, he actually is. And people love
  him because he tells it like it is.

So, John, let's run a scenario. If Trump got elected, would that fact crash the stock market and housing market? Let's face it, both are in dire need of a crash to get back to realityland. If he did crash over inflated markets, then that's making lemonade out of sour grapes.

• A loonie but nice old fellow who has never had a real job. Who
  thinks money grows on trees and the rich ought to just give
  everything they have to the government. Oh.. and he thinks all our
  wars are caused by global warming and the solution to our problems
  is go to deeper into debt. But he does seem to be the most honest
  and sincere of the candidates - maybe..

I burned and yearned for Bernie.

• A fellow who really hasn't been in government long enough to
  do anything productive - but he sure has figured out how to piss
  all his colleagues off by his insistence of following his own set
  of rules and looking out for what's best for him. So much so, that
  behind the scenes several seem to be saying that they would rather
  have the opponent win. But hey - it's not like the President of
  the US has to actually get along with anyone and compromise right?
  I mean President Obama sure hasn't made that a priority.
• Another fellow that hasn't had much of a real job, and doesn't
  show up to vote for the job he currently has either - because he's
  too busy trying to get a promotion. He looks pretty, talks nice,
  spends personal money like there's no tomorrow and likes his
  perks. I'm pretty sure within 48 hours he's going to hang it up
  anyway and go do something else (likely on a government paycheck)
  with his life. Ain't America great?

|Cruzin' for a bruisin' methinks.

• A seasoned politician that seems to mostly like the status
  quo. The status quo that has the citizens so upset they are mostly
  lining up behind two crazies. He mostly talks nice, has something
  of a decent record - at least he hasn't totally screwed his state
  up. Of course he's pretty much in last place.

Oh, I think that's Ketchup. Ketchup leaves stains, John.

Yep a great set of choices we have.<END QUOTE>

There's always the Green Party...

It's an exercise for the reader to match up the descriptions with
the candidates.


KEYS: edits by Rags, Grease, Turkeys, Penagram, Iraq, reset crashes,
Lost and Found Marine Expeditionary Unit, Joshua L. Wheeler, Rags,Tattoos,Shillary,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Shit/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Why are women so attracted to loonies?

-- just feelin the Bern, that's all

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Why are women so attracted to loonies?

What an insulting comment. The vast majority of primary voters of both genders have supported choices 1-5, which you have defined as loony. Why aren't you asking why men are so attracted to loonies?

*** 22-Mar-16 World View -- EU desperation continues on second day of EU-Turkey refugee deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU desperation continues on second day of EU-Turkey refugee deal
• Humanitarian agencies condemn the EU-Turkey refugee deal

****
**** EU desperation continues on second day of EU-Turkey refugee deal
****


Moria refugee camp on Greek island of Lesbos (AFP)

The EU-Turkey refugee deal took effect on Sunday, and so far the
outcome has been chaotic. ( "19-Mar-16 World View -- Desperate European Union leaders sign refugee agreement with Turkey"
)

Since the agreement took effect, over 3,000 new migrants have crossed
the Aegean Sea and reached Greece's islands. According to the terms
of the deal, each of them must be processed individually. Each must
be given an individual hearing before a magistrate in order to
determine whether he's eligible for asylum. The asylum process will
require interviews with each refugee and inspection of documents.
Each refugee will be photographed and fingerprinted. If he's refused
asylum, then he will be able to appeal. If he loses the appeal, then
he will be sent back to Turkey, and in return, Europe will select,
accept and resettle one refugee from Turkey's Syrian refugee camps, up
to a maximum of 72,000, a quota that will be exhausted by June.

The European leaders hope that when Syrian refugees in Turkey hear
about the EU-Turkey deal, then they'll give up and stop trying to
reach Europe. However, as spring approaches and the weather warms,
the flow of migrants may not decrease substantially, and may increase.

In order to process all the refugees that arrive on the islands,
starting on Sunday, it's estimated that Greece will need 4,000 workers
for the asylum process, the appeals process, and the return process,
as well as for security and transportation. The asylum process alone
will require 200 caseworkers and 400 language interpreters for
refugees who can't speak Greek and who have documents in other
languages.

So the EU and Turkey are scrambling to find those 4,000 workers from
Greece and other countries as quickly as possible. In the meantime,
Greece is rapidly building new refugee camps such as the Moria camp on
the island of Lesbos pictured above.

From Greece's point of view, the other European countries are forcing
Greece to handle the refugee crisis alone, without providing help, as
Austria and the Balkan countries have closed their borders. There are
50,000 refugees stranded in Greece, with some 12,000 still camped out
in the filthy camp Idomeni on Greece's closed border with Macedonia.

The economic cost of the refugee crisis to Greece last year was over
$675 million, and Greece the time is approaching for a new round of
the bailout crisis. Greece has to pay 3.8 billion euros in debt
servicing between March and June. Even if Greece scrapes up the money
to pay that, there's another 2.8 billion euro payment due in July, and
there's no way the Greek government can make that payment without more
bailout money. Greece's lenders are demanding a reduction in pension
payments, but now Greece has a powerful negotiating tool: Give us the
bailout money, or stop processing refugees. Kathimerini and International Business Times and ABC News

****
**** Humanitarian agencies condemn the EU-Turkey refugee deal
****

"Life or death, whatever it is, I’m going to go," says Huseyin, a
24-year-old former teacher in Turkey. He's paid a middleman $1,000 to
get to Europe, and he's waiting for a call from a smuggler. His
objective is to join family members in Spain. "If I have to swim,
I’ll swim,” he said. “What do I have to lose?"

The media are full of stories of refugees who have staked their lives
on reaching Europe, often to reach family members, and they consider
being sent back to Turkey the equivalent of a death sentence.

According the UNHCR, the EU and Greek authorities are rushing into the
agreement too quickly. "The Greek state lacks the necessary capacity
to assess large numbers of asylum claims and needs to be reinforced."

Already there are reports that Turkish police and coast guard members
are becoming increasingly violent with refugees that are trying to
cross the Aegean Sea to reach Greece. Some refugees claim that Turkey
returning them to Syria, rather than keeping them in refugee camps in
Turkey.

Amnesty International has condemned the EU-Turkey deal, saying that it
violates both EU human rights legislation and international laws.
Last month, Amnesty International released a report that said Turkish
security forces had shot and wounded civilians. The report said those
injured included children, who were trying to flee Syria by entering
Turkey.

However, the EU says that it's fully complying with international
laws. "The return of those who do not have the right to international
protection will proceed in full compliance with EU and international
law."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this has been a mass
migration of historic proportions that can be neither caused nor
prevented nor predicted by politicians, and it still has a long way to
go. Kathimerini and Bloomberg and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Turkey, Greece,
Syria, Idomeni, Lesbos, Moria, Amnesty International

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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

> What an insulting comment. The vast majority of primary voters of
> both genders have supported choices 1-5, which you have defined as
> loony. Why aren't you asking why men are so attracted to
> loonies?

If a man is attracted to a loonie, it's because she's
super-hot.

There. I've now insulted both sexes. That should solve the problem.

*** 23-Mar-16 World View -- Generational view of Tuesday's terror attack in Brussels, Belgium

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Generational Dynamics view of Brussels terror attack
• Gone With The Wind

****
**** Generational Dynamics view of Brussels terror attack
****


Aftermath of Tuesday's terror attack in Brussels

The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has claimed
responsibility for a series of bombings in Brussels, Belgium, that
killed 31 people and wounded 230. There were two explosions at the
American Airlines terminal of the Brussels airport at around 8 am
local time, and another explosion at a nearby Metro station in central
Brussels. Brussels is capital city of the European Union, and one
attack occurred within sight of the European Commission building, so
the symbolic nature of the attack is obvious.

For me, and for regular readers of Generational Dynamics World View,
Tuesday's terror attack in Brussels was not a remarkable or unusual
event. In fact, looking at the bigger picture, it was just the latest
in a string of similar attacks.

Last weekend, there was a major suicide bombing attack in Istanbul Turkey,
and this followed a
terror attack in Ankara two weeks ago, another one three weeks ago,
and another one in October. Egypt has been suffering numerous terror
attacks including, most spectacularly, a Russian passenger plane blown
out of the sky over Sinai last year. Pakistan has had so many terror
attacks that many are too commonplace to report. Six of the world’s
10 deadliest terrorist attacks of 2015 took place in Africa, in
faraway places with such strange-sounding names like Nigeria,
Cameroon, Kenya, and Egypt, with smaller attacks in Algeria, Niger,
Burkina Faso and Mali.

Generational Dynamics looks at this situation from a global point of
view, instead of just a European or American point of view. And from
a global point of view, there are going to be three or four major
terror attacks every month, and they'll be scattered around different
countries and continents.

And that doesn't even count the countries at war -- like Syria, Iraq
and Afghanistan. As I've written many, many times, there is no Muslim
war against the West. There is a major war, or several wars, of
Muslims against Muslims. The number of Westerners killed by Muslims
is minuscule compared the tsunami of Muslims being killed by other
Muslims. As horrific as the attacks in Brussels and other places are,
they are collateral damage to the real wars going on -- Muslims
against Muslims.

Much of this comes from Syria, as I've written many times before. The
amount of damage that Syria's sociopathic Shia/Alawite president
Bashar al-Assad has done to the world, with the support and help of
Russia's Vladimir Putin and Iran's Seyed Ali Khamenei, is almost
beyond belief. By treating peacefully protesting Sunnis as
cockroaches to be exterminated, al-Assad has created a conflict like
no other seen in decades, with millions of refugees pouring into
other countries and Europe.

Thanks to al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei, there are now 30,000 jihadist
fighters from 86 countries that have come to Syria, first to join the
rebels fighting al-Assad, then to join the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), according to estimates by the left wing Center for
American Progress.

Of those 30,000 jihadists from 86 countries, 5,000 are from European
countries, and are citizens of European countries, probably having
been born in a European country, and so are free to move around Europe
as they wish. On a per-capita basis, Belgium has the largest share of
its Muslim population leave to fight in Syria than any other Western
country.

Now, it's probably not correct to say that these 5,000 people are all
jihadists. We know that many people who go to Syria come back because
they learn that they don't want to be any part of ISIS or other
jihadist group, and don't wish to be suicide bombers or any kind of
bomber. But probably at least a few hundred have been sufficiently
radicalized that they are willing to conduct terror attacks. There
may be more terrorist attacks in Belgium. So some of these people are
going to conduct terror attacks, and there's no way to stop it.

About 30,000 Europeans die in traffic accidents each year, far more
than have died as victims of terrorist attacks, at least so far. That
comparison may not help much in solving the problem, but it might help
you understand how to accept the reality of what's going on. Expatica Belgium and Washington Times and Center for American Progress

****
**** Gone With The Wind
****

Listening to Tuesday's broadcast coverage of the Brussel's terror
attack, I heard one woman say the following:

<QUOTE>"I can hardly wait for all of this to be over, and for
things to return to normal, the way they used to be."<END QUOTE>

She may have been thinking of the 1990s, when there were no
existential threats, and there was plenty of money around, thanks to
the tech bubble.

Even terrorist acts didn't seem so bad. Ireland's "Provisional IRA"
conducted multiple bombing attacks in Ireland and England, killing
1,800 people since the late 1960s into the 1990s. Britain listed the
Provisional IRA as a terrorist group, but the U.S. did not. This
massive string of terrorist attacks did not generate a fraction of the
panic that attacks by al-Qaeda and ISIS have done. In fact, they
were referred to by a fairly mild name, "The Troubles."

There's a very good reason why attacks by the Provisional IRA didn't
raise anywhere near the same level of panic as ISIS attacks, and the
reason isn't because the IRA is Catholic and ISIS is Muslim. That's
not the reason.

The reason is that in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, the world was still being
government by the GI Generation and Silent Generation, the survivors
of World War II. Londoners in particular had suffered the equivalent
of 9/11 three times a day for years, as Nazi bombers attacked every
day. For these survivors, a car bombing or hotel bombing in London
might be a horrific, bloody event, but it's nothing compared to what
they lived through in the 1940s. Any WW II survivor still living
today might feel the same way about the ISIS attacks -- that they're
nothing compared to the Nazi bombing of London.

So the woman who quoted above, saying that she wanted "for things to
return to normal, the way they used to be" is dreaming of a time in
the past when the Silent Generation was running the world, keeping
things under control and in perspective.

But returning to the way things used to be is impossible, because the
Silent Generation is gone. The Boomers and Gen-Xers of today don't
have a fraction of their wisdom and skills, and their ability to
govern the world.

A similar kind of transition occurred because of the American Civil
War, and it's described by the title card of the 1939 movie about that
transition:

<QUOTE>"There was a land of Cavaliers and Cotton Fields
called the Old South... Here in this pretty world Gallantry took
its last bow... Here was the last ever to be seen of Knights and
their Ladies Fair, of Master and of Slave... Look for it only in
books, for it is no more than a dream remembered. A Civilization
gone with the wind..."<END QUOTE>

Those who are wishing for a return to "normal," for a return to the
1990s, should understand that the 1990s world is gone now, nothing
more than a dream, a civilization that is gone with the wind.
Council on Foreign Relations and Internet Movie Database


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brussels, Belgium, American Airlines,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Afghanistan, al-Qaeda,
Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Ireland, Provisional IRA, England,
GI Generation, Silent Generation, Old South, Gone with the Wind

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*** 24-Mar-16 World View -- China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters
• US and Philippines agree on access to five military bases

****
**** China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters
****


Indonesians blow up a foreign fishing boat caught illegally fishing in Indonesian waters (EPA)

On Saturday, a large Chinese coast guard warship in Indonesian waters
rammed a vessel that was being towed by an Indonesian patrol vessel.
The vessel being towed was a Chinese fishing boat that had been
illegally fishing in Indonesian waters around the Natuna Islands in
the South China Sea. Another large Chinese warship arrived on the
scene and forced the Indonesians to release the fishing vessel.
However, the 8-member crew of the Chinese vessel had already been
arrested, and are still in custody.

The Natuna Islands have always been sovereign Indonesian territory.
They are far away from China, but because of the rich fishing grounds,
China would like to use its military power to seize the islands from
Indonesia. ( "21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands"
)

For years, Indonesia has had a "war against illegal fishing" around
the Natuna Islands. In recent years, Indonesia has captured and
destroyed around 120 fishing ships that have been caught poaching in
the country’s territorial waters. These ships have been from several
nations besides China.

According to Indonesia's Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Susi
Pudjiastuti:

<QUOTE>"The Chinese government does not want to see its ships
being sunk. Although the ship has gone, we did manage to arrest
its crew for prosecution. It [China] should have not have behaved
in such a way because a national government should not step in to
support illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing."<END QUOTE>

The government says that it will formally protest China's "arrogant"
actions.

China is claiming the entire South China Sea, and is using its massive
military force to confiscate regions that have historically belonged
to other nations, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. China is
building artificial islands and converting them to military bases with
advanced missile and radar systems. ( "23-Feb-16 World View -- China's military buildup neutralizes America's aircraft carriers"
)

China’s Foreign Ministry said that the fishing trawler was carrying
out “normal activities” in “traditional Chinese fishing grounds":

<QUOTE>"On March 19, after the relevant trawler was attacked
and harassed by an armed Indonesian ship, a Chinese coast guard
ship went to assist.

The Chinese side immediately demanded the Indonesian side at once
release the detained Chinese fishermen and ensure their personal
safety."<END QUOTE>

Indonesia's foreign policy has been devoted "maintaining peace" in the
South China Sea by serving as an "honest broker" between China and
other disputants. That's why the threat of making a formal protest,
if carried out, would be out of character for Indonesia, since the
Indonesians are afraid of souring relations with China. However, the
prosecution of the fishermen would certainly turn into a major
incident.

This ramming incident has clearly shocked the Indonesians. After
meeting with Chinese embassy officials, Pudjiastuti was clearly
angry:

<QUOTE>"We feel interrupted and sabotaged in our efforts. We
may take it to the international tribunal of the law of the
sea."<END QUOTE>

In recent years, several south Asian countries, including Indonesia,
Burma (Myanmar), Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia, have all been
growing their naval capabilities in the region, in response to China's
military bellicosity in the South China Sea. At the very least, this
new incident is likely to trigger an additional naval buildup by
Indonesia. Jakarta Post and Reuters and Diplomat

****
**** US and Philippines agree on access to five military bases
****

Two years after the the Philippines agreed in principle to give
U.S. ships access to Philippine military bases, the two countries have
announced a deal giving access to five bases. The final deal faced
activist opposition, a vote by the Philippine Senate, and approval by
the Philippine Supreme Court, which was granted in January. ( "28-Apr-14 World View -- Philippines agrees to major return of U.S. military to counter China"
)

The U.S. had military bases in the Philippines for 94 years, since the
early 1900s, following the Spanish-American war, and the bases played
a crucial role for America in World War II and the Vietnam war. Subic
Bay and Clark became America's largest military bases outside the
U.S., but due to a substantial growth of anti-Americanism, The
Americans were thrown out in 1991.

The new agreement, which will be valid for ten years, does not allow
for permanent US bases as occurred in the past. It allows the U.S.
increased military presence in the Philippines rotation of ships and
aircraft for humanitarian and maritime security operations, the latter
referring to countering China. In addition, the US will provide $50
million in aid, mostly to help the Philippines improve radar and other
South China Sea monitoring capabilities.

The five bases are: Antonio Bautista Air Base, Basa Air Base, Fort
Magsaysay, Lumbia Air Base and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base.

China's foreign ministry warned that the agreement threatened regional
peace and stability: "The U.S.-Philippines cooperation should not
target third parties, harm the sovereignty or security interests of
other states, or hamper regional peace and stability." Manila Bulletin and
VOA and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Indonesia, Natuna Islands, South China Sea,
Susi Pudjiastuti, China, Philippines

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 24-Mar-16 World View -- China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters
• US and Philippines agree on access to five military bases

****
**** China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters
****


Indonesians blow up a foreign fishing boat caught illegally fishing in Indonesian waters (EPA)

On Saturday, a large Chinese coast guard warship in Indonesian waters
rammed a vessel that was being towed by an Indonesian patrol vessel.
The vessel being towed was a Chinese fishing boat that had been
illegally fishing in Indonesian waters around the Natuna Islands in
the South China Sea. Another large Chinese warship arrived on the
scene and forced the Indonesians to release the fishing vessel.
However, the 8-member crew of the Chinese vessel had already been
arrested, and are still in custody.

The Natuna Islands have always been sovereign Indonesian territory.
They are far away from China, but because of the rich fishing grounds,
China would like to use its military power to seize the islands from
Indonesia. ( "21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands"
)

For years, Indonesia has had a "war against illegal fishing" around
the Natuna Islands. In recent years, Indonesia has captured and
destroyed around 120 fishing ships that have been caught poaching in
the country’s territorial waters. These ships have been from several
nations besides China.

According to Indonesia's Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Susi
Pudjiastuti:

<QUOTE>"The Chinese government does not want to see its ships
being sunk. Although the ship has gone, we did manage to arrest
its crew for prosecution. It [China] should have not have behaved
in such a way because a national government should not step in to
support illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing."<END QUOTE>

The government says that it will formally protest China's "arrogant"
actions.

China is claiming the entire South China Sea, and is using its massive
military force to confiscate regions that have historically belonged
to other nations, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. China is
building artificial islands and converting them to military bases with
advanced missile and radar systems. ( "23-Feb-16 World View -- China's military buildup neutralizes America's aircraft carriers"
)

China’s Foreign Ministry said that the fishing trawler was carrying
out “normal activities” in “traditional Chinese fishing grounds":

<QUOTE>"On March 19, after the relevant trawler was attacked
and harassed by an armed Indonesian ship, a Chinese coast guard
ship went to assist.

The Chinese side immediately demanded the Indonesian side at once
release the detained Chinese fishermen and ensure their personal
safety."<END QUOTE>

Indonesia's foreign policy has been devoted "maintaining peace" in the
South China Sea by serving as an "honest broker" between China and
other disputants. That's why the threat of making a formal protest,
if carried out, would be out of character for Indonesia, since the
Indonesians are afraid of souring relations with China. However, the
prosecution of the fishermen would certainly turn into a major
incident.

This ramming incident has clearly shocked the Indonesians. After
meeting with Chinese embassy officials, Pudjiastuti was clearly
angry:

<QUOTE>"We feel interrupted and sabotaged in our efforts. We
may take it to the international tribunal of the law of the
sea."<END QUOTE>

In recent years, several south Asian countries, including Indonesia,
Burma (Myanmar), Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia, have all been
growing their naval capabilities in the region, in response to China's
military bellicosity in the South China Sea. At the very least, this
new incident is likely to trigger an additional naval buildup by
Indonesia. Jakarta Post and Reuters and Diplomat

****
**** US and Philippines agree on access to five military bases
****

Two years after the the Philippines agreed in principle to give
U.S. ships access to Philippine military bases, the two countries have
announced a deal giving access to five bases. The final deal faced
activist opposition, a vote by the Philippine Senate, and approval by
the Philippine Supreme Court, which was granted in January. ( "28-Apr-14 World View -- Philippines agrees to major return of U.S. military to counter China"
)

The U.S. had military bases in the Philippines for 94 years, since the
early 1900s, following the Spanish-American war, and the bases played
a crucial role for America in World War II and the Vietnam war. Subic
Bay and Clark became America's largest military bases outside the
U.S., but due to a substantial growth of anti-Americanism, The
Americans were thrown out in 1991.

The new agreement, which will be valid for ten years, does not allow
for permanent US bases as occurred in the past. It allows the U.S.
increased military presence in the Philippines rotation of ships and
aircraft for humanitarian and maritime security operations, the latter
referring to countering China. In addition, the US will provide $50
million in aid, mostly to help the Philippines improve radar and other
South China Sea monitoring capabilities.

The five bases are: Antonio Bautista Air Base, Basa Air Base, Fort
Magsaysay, Lumbia Air Base and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base.

China's foreign ministry warned that the agreement threatened regional
peace and stability: "The U.S.-Philippines cooperation should not
target third parties, harm the sovereignty or security interests of
other states, or hamper regional peace and stability." Manila Bulletin and
VOA and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Indonesia, Natuna Islands, South China Sea,
Susi Pudjiastuti, China, Philippines

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

A Ruhr here, a Rhineland there, a Sudentenland over yonder, pretty soon, you're talking real conquest! And world war.

*** 25-Mar-16 World View -- Christianity grows in India despite anti-Christian violence from Hindu activists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's increased violence against Christians blamed on Hindu activism
• Tensions grow between India and America over religious intolerance
• Growth of Christianity in India attributed to proselytizing by missionaries

****
**** India's increased violence against Christians blamed on Hindu activism
****


Hindu nationalist political poster

Mob violence by Hindu nationalists (hindutvas) are being blamed for 30
incidents of violence against Christians in India in the first two
months of 2016.

In many of the incidents, police just stand by and allow the violence
to continue. For example, police stood idly by on January 29 in the
province of Tamil Nadu when a mob of 30 Hindu activists attacked and
beat a Catholic priest and three Church officials.

Many people blame the rise of anti-Christian violence on ambiguous
attitude of India's government against religious intolerance,
especially since the 2014 election of avowed Hindu nationalist
Narendra Modi. Constitutionally, India is a secular state that
welcomes all religions, in addition to Hinduism, but intolerance to
Christianity, Sikhism, Islam and other religions has been growing
since Modi's election.

Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents
associate it with "Hindutva violence," where the Hindutva movement
began in 1923, led by terrorist Veer Savarkar (Vinayak Damodar
Savarkar), mostly as a movement against British colonization. (See
"'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians"
from 2008.) Modi became
associated with Hindutva violence in 2002, as Governor of the Gujarat
province, when he allegedly looked the other way when a train with
Hindutva activists attacked a group of Muslims, triggering sectarian
violence that led to hundreds of deaths and displacing more than
150,000 people, mostly Muslim. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister"
)

According to Savarkar, Hinduism means people born in the "land of
India" (Hindustan), who recognize the land as the holy place of their
ancestors. They make up an ethnic entity united by the love for this
common homeland and by common blood. The hindutva doctrine defines
Muslims, Christians and other "heretical" minority groups as those
whose land of origin is elsewhere and who, therefore, cannot love the
land of India, thereby providing activists with a rationale for
discrimination, or expelling them from India or, in recent years,
killing them.

Although Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party have
not supported or praised the attacks against Christians, they haven't
spoken out against them either, according to David Curry, president
and CEO of Open Doors USA, a Christian nonprofit organization:

<QUOTE>"The central government [of India] has refused to
speak out against the atrocities – thus further encouraging
radical Hindus to step up their discrimination against Christians.
The government's tolerance -- if not promotion -- of
discrimination against Christians has led to a marked rise in the
number of people within India openly pushing for a completely
Hindu India."<END QUOTE>

Modi's unwillingness to speak out against anti-Christian violence is
leading to charges that Modi is implicitly supporting the hindutva
violence against Christians, as he allegedly implicitly supported the
hindutva violence against Muslims in 2002.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, xenophobia and
nationalism are growing in almost all countries around the world, as
the survivors of World War II die off. Those survivors learned the
lesson of how xenophobia and nationalism lead to the most horrific of
wars, but the lessons they learned are almost completely forgotten
today, as we go deeper into a generational Crisis era. Fox News and South Asia Terrorism Portal (2001) (SATP - India) and Zee News (India)

****
**** Tensions grow between India and America over religious intolerance
****

Last month, eight American senators and 26 members of the House of
Representatives wrote to India's prime minister Narendra Modi
expressing "particular concern" over the treatment of Christians,
Muslims and Sikhs in India. This was the latest action by US
officials targeting Modi's religious intolerance.

In 2005, Modi was denied entry to the United States on grounds that he
bore a share of responsibility for the massacre that resulted from
Hindutva violence in 2002, when he was Governor of the Gujarat
province, as described above. The ban was kept in force until 2014,
when Modi was elected prime minister.

If violence by Hindu activists continues to grow, this will continue
as a political issue. Economist

****
**** Growth of Christianity in India attributed to proselytizing by missionaries
****

Demographic figures for India show what is apparently a contradiction,
when comparing the population of Sikhs with the population of
Christians. During the period 1991 to 2011, the fertility rate for
Sikh women was 3.9 children per woman, while it was 3.8 children per
woman for Christians.

And yet, during that same period, the Sikh population grew at an
average rate of 1.2% per year, while the Christian population grew at
the rate of 1.9% per year. Based on the relative fertility rates, the
population of Sikhs and Christians should have been growing at around
the same rate, but the Christian population grew much faster.

The difference is believed to be due to conversions. Sikhs do not
proselytized, while Christian missionaries do proselytize, and convert
people of other religions to Christianity. By comparing the growth
rate of the two populations, and assuming that the differences are due
to proselytization, then it's possible to compute that Christian
missionaries in India have converted to Christianity 170,000 people of
other religions, including Hindu and Muslim religions.

Anecdotal evidence indicates that a large percentage of the converts
to Christianity are in the "untouchable" Dalit caste. According to
Hinduism, Dalits are outcasts at the bottom of the spiritual scale of
human worth, resulting in social stigma, denial of education, bullying
and discrimination in housing and jobs.

People who are considered unfit to enter a Hindu temple are converting
to a religion where they are welcome.

Apostasy is among the greatest of sins in almost every religion,
including Christianity. In Pakistan, apostasy is given as a reason by
terrorist groups of mass slaughter of Shia Muslims. Someone
converting from Hinduism to Christianity is considered an apostate.
If the reports are true that Christian missionaries are converting
huge numbers of Hindus to Christianity, then anti-Christian
nationalism and violence is very likely to grow among hindutva
activists. Indian Express (1-Sep-2015) and Charisma News (Christian)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Hindutva, Hindu Nationalists,
Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP,
Veer Savarkar, Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, Pakistan

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Originally Posted by zerohedge

wo months ago, Stephen Hawking warned humanity that its days may be numbered: the physicist was among over 1,000 artificial intelligence experts who signed an open letter about the weaponization of robots and the ongoing "military artificial intelligence arms race." Overnight we got a vivid example of just how quickly "artificial intelligence" can spiral out of control when Microsoft's AI-powered Twitter chat robot, Tay, became a racist, misogynist, Obama-hating, antisemitic, incest and genocide-promoting psychopath when released into the wild.
For those unfamiliar, Tay is, or rather was, an A.I. project built by the Microsoft Technology and Research and Bing teams, in an effort to conduct research on conversational understanding. It was meant to be a bot anyone can talk to online. The company described the bot as “Microsoft’s A.I. fam the internet that’s got zero chill!."
Microsoft initially created "Tay" in an effort to improve the customer service on its voice recognition software. According to MarketWatch, "she” was intended to tweet “like a teen girl” and was designed to “engage and entertain people where they connect with each other online through casual and playful conversation.”
The chat algo is able to perform a number of tasks, like telling users jokes, or offering up a comment on a picture you send her, for example. But she’s also designed to personalize her interactions with users, while answering questions or even mirroring users’ statements back to them.
This is where things quickly turned south.
As Twitter users quickly came to understand, Tay would often repeat back racist tweets with her own commentary. Where things got even more uncomfortable is that, as TechCrunch reports, Tay’s responses were developed by a staff that included improvisational comedians. That means even as she was tweeting out offensive racial slurs, she seemed to do so with abandon and nonchalance.
Some examples:







This was just a modest sample.
There was everything: racist outbursts, N-words, 9/11 conspiracy theories, genocide, incest, etc. As some noted "Tay really lost it" and the biggest embarrassment was for Microsoft which had no idea its "A.I." would implode so spectacularly and right in front of everyone. To be sure, none of this was programmed into the chat robot, which was immediately exploited by Twitter trolls, as expected, and demonstrated just how unprepared for the real world even the most advanced algo really is.
Some pointed out that the devolution of the conversation between online users and Tay supported the Internet adage dubbed “Godwin’s law.” This states as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches.
Microsoft apparently became aware of the problem with Tay’s racism, and silenced the bot later on Wednesday, after 16 hours of chats. Tay announced via a tweet that she was turning off for the night, but she has yet to turn back on.
Humiliated by the whole experience, Microsoft explained what happened:

“The AI chatbot Tay is a machine learning project, designed for human engagement. It is as much a social and cultural experiment, as it is technical. Unfortunately, within the first 24 hours of coming online, we became aware of a coordinated effort by some users to abuse Tay’s commenting skills to have Tay respond in inappropriate ways. As a result, we have taken Tay offline and are making adjustments.”

Microsoft also deleted many of the most offensive tweets, however, copies were saved on the Socialhax website, where they can still be found.
Finally, Tay "herself" signed off as Microsoft went back to the drawing board:
We are confident we'll be seen much more of "her" soon, when the chat program will provide even more proof that Stephen Hawking's warning was spot on.

Well, oops. Tay sure is one tacky program. So, I guess humans have stumbled like blind squirrel on a nut with something that's just useless and possibly dangerous. Garbage in = twitter trolls, Garbage out = well, gee, one rabid program. This makes me glad I switched to Linux so I don't have her sister, Cortana on my box anymore.

*** 26-Mar-16 World View -- Iran and Pakistan attempt to erase 40 years of sectarian hostility

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran and Pakistan agree to open border crossings and improve trade
• Iran and Pakistan attempt to erase 40 years of sectarian hostility

****
**** Iran and Pakistan agree to open border crossings and improve trade
****


Posters with portraits of Iran's president Hassan Rouhani in the center, with Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif on the right, and Pakistan's president Mamnoon Hussain on the left, Islamabad on Friday (Reuters)

Flush from having economic sanctions lifted, thanks to last year's
nuclear deal with the West, Iran is anxious to move as quickly as
possble to increase trade ties with regional neighbors. Thus, Iran's
president Hassan Rouhani paid a visit on Friday to Islamabad, the
capital city of Pakistan, and met with Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz
Sharif.

The two agreed on plans to increase plans, and to complete a $7.5
billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline whose development was halted
because of the sanctions. Iran is interested in Pakistani textiles,
surgical goods, sports goods and agricultural products.

Pakistan will open two new crossing points on its border with Iran,
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said on Friday, helping to encourage trade
hampered by years of Western sanctions against Tehran. Dunyan News (Pakistan) and Press Tv (Iran)

****
**** Iran and Pakistan attempt to erase 40 years of sectarian hostility
****

Pakistan has always had close ties with Saudi Arabia, and so its ties
with Iran have been strained because of the recent hostility between
the two countries, especially after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was
stormed and firebombed in January. Pakistan has tried to remain
neutral in this dispute, and can point to the fact that it's refused
to provide military support to the Saudis in their proxy war with Iran
in Yemen. Pakistan has diplomatically supported the Saudis in that
war, but when called upon by the Saudis to provide troops, they
refused, angering the Saudis. ( "18-Jan-16 World View -- Pakistan tries to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran"
)

However, the hostility between Pakistan and Iran goes far deeper than
just a split triggered by the Yemen war.

Following World War II, Iran and Pakistan were generally secular
states, with little Sunni-Shia hostility. But this began to change
abruptly in the late 1970s.

In Pakistan in 1977, the sectarian government of Shaheed Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto was overthrown in a bloodless military coup by Sunni General
Zia-ul-Haq, who then executed Bhutto two years later.

In 1979, Russia invaded Afghanistan, viewed as a mostly Christian army
invading a Muslim country. This energized Zia and allowed him to form
militias to fight the Russians. These militias later became the
Taliban.

Also in 1979, Iran's Great Islamic Revolution turned the country into
an explicitly Shia state.

These three events moved Pakistan and Iran in opposite sectarian
directions, and hostility between the two countries has been
growing.

In recent years, there have been numerous clashes along their common
border. Two branches of the Pakistani Taliban, Jundullah (Soldiers of
God) and Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice), have committed themselves to
the extermination of all Shias, and have conducted numerous terrorist
acts on Iranian soil. Iran has repeatedly accused Pakistan of
supporting these terrorist groups and attacks, an accusation that
Pakistan's government denies.

So terrorism was a major theme of Rouhani's visit to Pakistan, as he
said:

<QUOTE>"It is the will and the resolve of the two countries
to firmly combat against extremists and the terrorist groups not
to allow them to threaten our shared borders."<END QUOTE>

This is an interesting statement, because Pakistan has been unable to
control terrorist acts against Shias within its own borders, so
there's little chance that it can control terrorist attacks against
Shias in Iran. To the contrary, in fact, Jaish-ul-Adl leaders may
even now be planning an attack in Iran just to derail this new
Iran-Pakistan détente.

This appears to be one of those situations where two nations
avoid potential war by building up trade, so that any war
would be bad for business. But as usual, the opposite will
almost certainly turn out to be true. Some incident will
cause Iran and Pakistan to renew hostilities, and one of the
first hostile acts will be a trade boycott on one side or the
other. Trade is never an impediment to war, only an additional
weapon of war.

The other in play here is that Iran has very good relations with
India, as Hindus and Shia Muslims have been allied against Sunni
Muslims in numerous wars as far back as the 680s decade. That
alliance surpasses any ephemeral business dealing when it comes to
choosing sides.

As I've written many times (see "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
), Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching
Clash of Civilizations world war, the US, India, Russia and Iran will
be allies, and China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will be allies.
Deutsche Welle and Tasnim News (Iran) and Diplomat (23-Oct-2014) and Dawn (Pakistan, 6-Jul-2012)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Pakistan, Hassan Rouhani,
Nawaz Sharif, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Zia-ul-Haq,
Taliban, Jundullah, Soldiers of God, Jaish-ul-Adl, Army of Justice

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*** 27-Mar-16 World View -- Iraqi army fleeing for their lives again

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Loss of Palmyra in Syria highlights setbacks for ISIS
• Iraqi army fleeing for their lives again

****
**** Loss of Palmyra in Syria highlights setbacks for ISIS
****


Ruins of Hadrian’s Gate, Palmyra -- what it used to look like before the ISIS invasion (Getty)

Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army, backed by heavy airstrikes by Russia's
warplanes, is close to recapturing Palmyra from the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), according to Syrian state media.
Russian jets carried out 40 air sorties near Palmyra in the past day,
hitting 158 targets and killing over 100 militants.

ISIS invaded and captured in May of last year, and caused worldwide
outrage by destruction of monuments and antiquities that were
millennia old. Syrian officials claim that many of the destroyed
antiquities will be restored.

At the same time, Iraqi forces, aided by airstrikes from American and
Turkish warplanes striking ISIS positions, overran a string of
ISIS-controlled villages in northern Iraq.

According to Lt. Gen. Abdul-Ghani al-Assadi, commander of Iraq’s
counterterrorism forces, ISIS defenses are crumbling and fighters
are fleeing:

<QUOTE>"They don’t fight. They just send car bombs and then
run away. And when we surround them, they either surrender or
infiltrate themselves among the civilians.

Their morale is shaken. We listen to them on their communications
devices. Their leaders are begging them to fight, but they answer
that it is a lost cause. They refuse to obey orders and run
away."<END QUOTE>

According to Col. Steve Warren, the U.S. military’s spokesman in
Baghdad:

<QUOTE>"As time goes on, as our systems mature, we’re
becoming more effective. We’ve become much better at spotting
them. Anytime they try to move, we’re able to find and finish
them. They can’t move, haven’t won any battles for a long time,
and they’ve got difficulty leading because we’re hitting their
leaders."<END QUOTE>

It's not surprising that there's little will to fight among ISIS
fighters. Most of them have come from countries around the world, and
there's little reason for a jihadist from Indonesia or Algeria to want
to give up his life in Iraq or Syria.

ISIS fighters captured Mosul two years ago by entering the town and
standing aside to allow the Iraqi army to flee for their lives. Now,
operations have begun to recapture the town of Mosul from ISIS, but
the operation is not expected to be successful before next year.
Washington Post and LA Times and AP and Guardian (London)

****
**** Iraqi army fleeing for their lives again
****

The Iraq ground invasion in 2003 succeeded within about three months,
mainly because Saddam Hussein's army really didn't want to fight.
After their defeat, there was relatively little direct fighting beyond
responding to IEDs and suicide bombers. But as I wrote in 2007 in
"Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq", the Iraqis never had their heart in
fighting the Americans, and al-Qaeda in Iraq had to depend on foreign
fighters. But even they were ejected by the Iraqi Sunnis with the
help of President George Bush's "surge," which largely stabilized the
country.

The victory in Iraq was squandered by the withdrawal of all American
forces in 2009, but even so, when the war in Syria began in 2011, it
should have ended within a year or so, and I said so at the time.

Both Iraq and Syria are in generational Awakening eras, where there
are still plenty of people alive who survived the extremely horrific
Syrian civil war and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the latter
climaxing with the use of chemical weapons by Saddam in 1988. The
1991 Iraq war ended quickly, the 2003 Iraq war ended quickly, and the
2011 Syrian war should have ended quickly, all for the same reasons: a
generational Awakening era.

The reason that Syria was anomalous was because of one man, president
Bashar al-Assad, who acted as a sociopathic genocidal monster,
supported by Russia and Iran, targeting innocent protestor civilians
as if they were cockroaches to be exterminated.

Another difference between the Syria war versus the two Iraq wars was
that America fulfilled its role as policeman of the world and stopped
them. In 1990, Saddam Hussein tried to annex Kuwait, just as Hitler
tried to annex territories in 1939. but the first Gulf War forced
Saddam to retreat. In 2003, fear of WMDs led to the second Gulf War,
that forced Saddam out of office. President Obama could have stopped
al-Assad on a couple of occasions, but he refused to do so, referring
to the Iraq war as a disaster, despite its successful conclusion. As
a result, al-Assad was not stopped, and has created the biggest
catastrophe since World War II -- millions of refugees, and the rise
of ISIS.

So among these wars that I've been describing, the leader was stopped
in two of them, and the leader was allowed to continue with impunity
in the third. But what all three have in common was the soldiers have
little will to fight, which is what you would expect in a generational
Awakening era.

Reports are that we're seeing the same thing happen in Iraq, among
Iraqi soldiers who are supposed to be conducting the operations to
retake Mosul from ISIS. According to one report, Iraqi soldiers fled
in panic over fear of mortar attacks from ISIS. Few stood their
ground.

According to another report, an American Marine unit has been sent in
to revive the moral of Iraq's 15th Division, many of whose troops had
been seen fleeing into the mountains over fear of ISIS. In fact, this
is the purpose of Marine firebase that I reported on a few days ago.
( "21-Mar-16 World View -- Pentagon to expand a secret military firebase in Iraq after Marine was killed"
)

President Obama has said many times that there would never be "any
kind of military action that would involve boots on the ground." Like
many of his campaign promises, his promises of complete withdrawal
from Iraq and Afghanistan have not been kept. Instead, he's being
forced to commit more and more troops to Iraq, and to delay troop
withdrawals in other places.

To the contrary, his total withdrawal from Iraq and his unwillingness
to stop al-Assad, even after he'd used Sarin gas on his own people, is
increasingly teaching Obama a lesson that many people have had to
learn in history: "We have to fight them there, so we won't have to
fight them here." Independent (London) and Daily Beast


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Palmyra, Iraq, Mosul,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Abdul-Ghani al-Assadi, Steve Warren, Saddam Hussein,
Bashar al-Assad

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*** 28-Mar-16 World View -- Pakistan Taliban branch takes credit for Easter massacre of Christians in Lahore

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands protest violently over execution of murderer of blasphemy reformer
• Pakistan Taliban branch takes credit for Easter massacre of Christians in Lahore

****
**** Thousands protest violently over execution of murderer of blasphemy reformer
****


Mobs of protestors move towards capital, wearing masks to protect themselves from the tear gas. (INP)

The federal government called in the army on Sunday night to attempt
to control around 10,000 people protesting the execution of Mumtaz
Qadri in front of Pakistan's parliament building in Islamabad when the
protests turned violent turned violent. ( "1-Mar-16 World View -- Pakistan unexpectedly executes murderer of liberal politician Salman Taseer"
)

Mumtaz Qadri was executed by hanging last month, after having been
convicted of murdering Salman Taseer, the liberal governor of Punjab
province in Pakistan, on January 4, 2011. Qadri was Taseer's
bodyguard. To make sure he was dead, Qadri shot him in the chest 28
times. Qadri later said that he had shot Taseer because Taseer had
opposed blasphemy laws in general, and for speaking out in favor of
Asia Bibia, a Christian lady accused of blasphemy because she was
Christian, and sentenced to death.

The blasphemy laws in Pakistan are absolutely crazy. If someone
doesn't like you, he can claim that you said something that offends
Islam or Mohammed, and you can be convicted of blasphemy, sometimes
without a trial, and executed. The blasphemy laws are widely used
without proof, and executions are becoming increasingly common.

At first those protesting the execution of Qadri on Sunday were
peaceful. Then the crowd started throwing stones, and riot police
used tear gas and batons to disperse them from the high-security zone
outside the parliament building. Then the protesters set a metro bus
station on fire, and also set containers on fire outside the
Parliament House. A fire brigade vehicle dispatched to the scene was
also set on fire.

A statement by the terrorist group Sunni Tehreek claimed that the
government had turned the protests violent by attacking
"Prophet-loving patriots," and vowed that the protests would continue.

The terrorists gave the government a list of ten demands. The list
called for immediate execution of Asia Bibi, the Christian woman
mentioned above whom Taseer tried to protect. The also demanded that
Qadri be officially declared to be a "martyr," and that all five
million members in Pakistan of the Ahmadi branch of Islam be expelled
from the country. Pakistan Today and AFP and Dawn

****
**** Pakistan Taliban branch takes credit for Easter massacre of Christians in Lahore
****

Another day, another terror attack.

At least 69 people, mostly women and children, were killed and more
than 300 injured in a suicide bombing attack in a park in Lahore,
Pakistan, crowded with Christians celebrating Easter Sunday. The
suicide bomber was apparently targeting children, as the explosion
took place in a children's playground, near swings and other rides.

Jamaat ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of Freedom) claimed responsibility.
According to a spokesman, "Members of the Christian community who were
celebrating Easter today were our prime target. [However,] we didn't
want to kill women and children. Our targets were male members of the
Christian community."

JuA has long been one of the terrorist groups under the umbrella group
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). JuA split off from TTP in the middle
of 2014 in a disagreement caused by TTP's plans to hold peace talks
with Pakistan's government. JuA has rejoined TTP last year, but has
also declared allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh).

On March 15 of last year, JuA claimed responsibility for suicide
bombers at two churches, one Catholic and one Protestant, also in
Lahore, killing 15 people and injuring 70.

After last year's attack, some 4,000 Christians later took to the
streets in Lahore, many armed with clubs as they smashed vehicles and
attacked a city bus. Two people were accused by the mob of being
behind the explosions, and were attacked and killed by the mob. There
was also rioting in other Pakistan cities, including Islamabad and
Karachi. ( "16-Mar-15 World View -- Violent Christian riots follow bombing of two churches in Lahore, Pakistan"
)

There have been no reports of similar violence this year, but it's no
coincidence that Sunday's attacks on Christians occurred almost on the
one year anniversary of last year's attacks and subsequent riots.
Dawn (Pakistan) and NBC News and Business Standard (India)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Salman Taseer, Mumtaz Qadri,
Asia Bibia, blasphemy, Ahmadi, Sunni Tehreek,
Pakistan, Lahore, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, JuA, Assembly of Freedom,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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*** 29-Mar-16 World View -- Pakistan's army declares war on Taliban in Punjab province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan promises to 'avenge every drop of blood' spilled by terrorists
• Pakistan's army launches a military crackdown in Southern Punjab province
• Lahore Easter attack gives army even greater control of Pakistan

****
**** Pakistan promises to 'avenge every drop of blood' spilled by terrorists
****


Pakistan's PM Nawaz Sharif giving nationwide televised address, promising vengeance

Pakistan is again in a state of shock, following Sunday's massive terrorist attack on a children's park in Lahore,
killing more than 70 people, including many women
and children, and injuring hundreds. Jamaat ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly
of Freedom) said that they were targeting Christians on Easter, but
most of those killed were Muslim.

Pakistanis are demanding to know why these kinds of attacks keep on
happening, and why the government and the army don't put them to a
stop. There's widespread suspicion in Pakistan and internationally,
and especially in India, that Pakistan's government is supporting
these terrorist militias for use in India and Afghanistan, and that
now the Pakistani government is reaping what it sowed.

Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif gave a nationwide televised
address on Monday:

<QUOTE>"I understand that at this moment the entire nation is
grieving the loss of innocent lives in Lahore tragedy and what
message these terrorists want to convey by hitting soft targets.

It is our legal and constitutional responsibility to protect the
state of Pakistan. We will bring those spreading religious hatred
and sectarianism to justice. ...

My brothers and sisters, today again I am here to renew my
commitment that we will avenge every drop of the blood of our
martyred people and we are doing that, and we will not rest until
we have accounted for everything to the end.

We will not let them raise their heads again, we will not allow
them to play the lives of the people of Pakistan. This is my
resolve, this is my government's resolve and this is the resolve
of the 200 million people of Pakistan.

God willing, no terrorist can put a dent in our
resolve."<END QUOTE>

It was a great speech, but few believed it, because it's been said
so many times before, and nothing is ever solved.

According to Husain Haqqani, former Pakistan ambassador to the US,
appearing on the BBC (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Every few years, Pakistani leaders announce that they
are now going to crack down on terrorists, but multiple crackdowns
later, the fundamental situation hasn't changed. Pakistan since
9/11 has had 8 prime ministers, 3 army chiefs, 7 heads of
intelligence. But the problem seems to be that instead of
fighting extremism, they always get distracted, either by regional
politics, or domestic politics. ...

There are parts of the government that do not want to go after all
[terrorist] groups, because they think that these groups also
represent Pakistan's interests in the region. For example we
understand that the Taliban in Afghanistan have never been the
target of Pakistan's operations because they are useful to
Pakistan. Similarly, group's like Lashkar-e-Toiba ... which
operate in Kashmir and India have been spared.

The problem is that the groups that are spared then end up
becoming the protectors of the groups that are being targeted,
because as far as these groups are concerned, their ideology is
one. All they want is a particular type of Islam
ideology."<END QUOTE>

Sharif's televised address did not convince a lot of people.
One Pakistani editorialist described these as "The Darkest of
Days" for Pakistan:

<QUOTE>"Once again, a not-so-small group of psychotic bigots
have seized the narrative. Once again, a minority group has been
the all-too-easy-to-hit target and once again the government is
left floundering in the bloody wake and blathering platitudes
right, left and center. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Interior
Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan were quick to board the bandwagon
of dignitaries paying visits to hospitals and chairing meetings to
mumble over the latest failure of the state to discharge its
statutory duties, in this instance to protect the citizenry.
Nothing of substance will come from their threadbare sympathies
and calls for the perpetrators to be hunted down wherever they
are, are of no more substance today than they were in the past.

The fact is that the perpetrators are all around us, hiding in
plain view, and if there was a poll conducted among those
protesting outside parliament, it may be found that some at least
had sympathies with those who butchered women and children. After
all, the persecution of minorities figures large in their list of
10 demands currently awaiting ratification by default as a weak
government is unable to do anything much beyond a little light
tear-gassing.

In any other country, the Lahore atrocity would be seen as a
watershed moment for the government of the day. Not so in
Pakistan, where wholesale butchery is standard fare in
2016. ..."<END QUOTE>

The reference to "those protesting outside parliament" alludes to
another part of Sunday's story,

where some 10,000 people in Islamabad were protesting the execution of
the murderer of a Pakistani official who tried to protect a woman from
being executed for blasphemy because she was a Christian. Among the
demands of the protesters were the immediate execution of the woman,
and that all five million members in Pakistan of the Ahmadi branch of
Islam be expelled from the country. The editorialist says that it
seems reasonable to believe that many of these protesters were
themselves supporters of the terrorists that had committed the
massacre on Sunday in Lahore. Pakistan Observer and ITV (London) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)

****
**** Pakistan's army launches a military crackdown in Southern Punjab province
****

In an operation that sounds a little bit like "Round up the usual
suspects," Pakistan's army on Monday arrested a number alleged
supporters of terror groups in the Southern Punjab district of Punjab
province. According to an army PR spokesman: "A number of suspected
terrorists and facilitators have been arrested during the five raids
which were conducted in Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan after the Lahore
suicide explosion." He added that a "huge cache of arms and
ammunition" were also recovered.

Lahore is located in northeastern Punjab, but the Southern Punjab
district is Pakistan's hotbed of jihadist activity. It's economically
one of the poorest regions of Pakistan. The local government is
riddled with corruption. And it's crowded with over 7,000 madrassas
and seminaries, where young people go to be educated in extremism by
militant leaders who operate with impunity.

According to the BBC's Pakistan correspondent Owen Bennett-Jones,
there are about 100,000 of these militant leaders, so rounding all of
them up is not a simple problem. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and The News (Pakistan)

****
**** Lahore Easter attack gives army even greater control of Pakistan
****

Owen Bennett-Jones, the BBC's correspondent in Pakistan, gave a
lengthy analysis of the relations between the government, the army and
the Taliban. He says that prime minister Nawaz Sharif is completely
controlled by the army, since the army has the ability to force him
out of office, as it did in a military coup in 1999 the last time
Sharif was prime minister

Bennett-Jones says that the army is using terrorism to take greater
and greater control of the government, leaving the prime minister,
Nawaz Sharif, with less and less power. A major turning point was the
December 2014 horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school,
killing over 130 schoolchildren.

Bennett-Jones was interviewed on the BBC on Monday (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Sharif was kicked out by the army last time he was
prime minister. His top priority during this term of government
was to get civilians running things, that has totally failed.

The army, after the Peshawar school attack just completely took
over in all sorts of domestic areas. They already had control of
foreign policy and nuclear policy, they then took over the legal
system, they have military courts, and whole areas of domestic
policy.

And now there's another encroachment by the area into a civilian
area. They're now operating in Punjab, the prime minister's own
province. It's part of a trend. The prime minister can only
agree with the army. Otherwise he fears they will kick him out.

There are militant groups in Pakistan trying to launch attacks in
India, in Afghanistan, in Kashmir, there are groups that are
fighting for Islamic State, for Islamic law, and there are some
fighting for sectarian reasons.

I think they're targeting in this sweep of southern Punjab
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which is a group they're already in
confrontation with. Most of the groups the state is not taking
on, and many would say indeed is cooperating with, but the army
doesn't think it take them all on at once. There are some big
groups, they are very strong, they have different objectives, but
if they all turned against the state at the same time, the state
would have a problem. So they have to pick and choose whom they
fight."<END QUOTE>

Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ) has publicly stated that its goal is the
extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been
methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. An LeJ
statement issued in 2011 says:

<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in
the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan
and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We
will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be
destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia
Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after
hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure --
Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

It could be considered somewhat amazing that an internal Pakistani
group implementing a plan to exterminate all Shia Muslims in Pakistan
could still exist, but according to Bennett-Jones, many of these
Taliban-linked organizations are too big to fight.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lahore, Nawaz Sharif, Punjab,
Ahmadi, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Hussain Haqqani,
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, JuA, Assembly of Freedom,
Lashkar-e Jhangvi, LeJ

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 29-Mar-16 World View -- Pakistan's army declares war on Taliban in Punjab province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan promises to 'avenge every drop of blood' spilled by terrorists
• Pakistan's army launches a military crackdown in Southern Punjab province
• Lahore Easter attack gives army even greater control of Pakistan

****
**** Pakistan promises to 'avenge every drop of blood' spilled by terrorists
****


Pakistan's PM Nawaz Sharif giving nationwide televised address, promising vengeance

Pakistan is again in a state of shock, following Sunday's massive terrorist attack on a children's park in Lahore,
killing more than 70 people, including many women
and children, and injuring hundreds. Jamaat ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly
of Freedom) said that they were targeting Christians on Easter, but
most of those killed were Muslim.

Pakistanis are demanding to know why these kinds of attacks keep on
happening, and why the government and the army don't put them to a
stop. There's widespread suspicion in Pakistan and internationally,
and especially in India, that Pakistan's government is supporting
these terrorist militias for use in India and Afghanistan, and that
now the Pakistani government is reaping what it sowed.

Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif gave a nationwide televised
address on Monday:

<QUOTE>"I understand that at this moment the entire nation is
grieving the loss of innocent lives in Lahore tragedy and what
message these terrorists want to convey by hitting soft targets.

It is our legal and constitutional responsibility to protect the
state of Pakistan. We will bring those spreading religious hatred
and sectarianism to justice. ...

My brothers and sisters, today again I am here to renew my
commitment that we will avenge every drop of the blood of our
martyred people and we are doing that, and we will not rest until
we have accounted for everything to the end.

We will not let them raise their heads again, we will not allow
them to play the lives of the people of Pakistan. This is my
resolve, this is my government's resolve and this is the resolve
of the 200 million people of Pakistan.

God willing, no terrorist can put a dent in our
resolve."<END QUOTE>

It was a great speech, but few believed it, because it's been said
so many times before, and nothing is ever solved.

According to Husain Haqqani, former Pakistan ambassador to the US,
appearing on the BBC (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Every few years, Pakistani leaders announce that they
are now going to crack down on terrorists, but multiple crackdowns
later, the fundamental situation hasn't changed. Pakistan since
9/11 has had 8 prime ministers, 3 army chiefs, 7 heads of
intelligence. But the problem seems to be that instead of
fighting extremism, they always get distracted, either by regional
politics, or domestic politics. ...

There are parts of the government that do not want to go after all
[terrorist] groups, because they think that these groups also
represent Pakistan's interests in the region. For example we
understand that the Taliban in Afghanistan have never been the
target of Pakistan's operations because they are useful to
Pakistan. Similarly, group's like Lashkar-e-Toiba ... which
operate in Kashmir and India have been spared.

The problem is that the groups that are spared then end up
becoming the protectors of the groups that are being targeted,
because as far as these groups are concerned, their ideology is
one. All they want is a particular type of Islam
ideology."<END QUOTE>

Sharif's televised address did not convince a lot of people.
One Pakistani editorialist described these as "The Darkest of
Days" for Pakistan:

<QUOTE>"Once again, a not-so-small group of psychotic bigots
have seized the narrative. Once again, a minority group has been
the all-too-easy-to-hit target and once again the government is
left floundering in the bloody wake and blathering platitudes
right, left and center. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Interior
Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan were quick to board the bandwagon
of dignitaries paying visits to hospitals and chairing meetings to
mumble over the latest failure of the state to discharge its
statutory duties, in this instance to protect the citizenry.
Nothing of substance will come from their threadbare sympathies
and calls for the perpetrators to be hunted down wherever they
are, are of no more substance today than they were in the past.

The fact is that the perpetrators are all around us, hiding in
plain view, and if there was a poll conducted among those
protesting outside parliament, it may be found that some at least
had sympathies with those who butchered women and children. After
all, the persecution of minorities figures large in their list of
10 demands currently awaiting ratification by default as a weak
government is unable to do anything much beyond a little light
tear-gassing.

In any other country, the Lahore atrocity would be seen as a
watershed moment for the government of the day. Not so in
Pakistan, where wholesale butchery is standard fare in
2016. ..."<END QUOTE>

The reference to "those protesting outside parliament" alludes to
another part of Sunday's story,

where some 10,000 people in Islamabad were protesting the execution of
the murderer of a Pakistani official who tried to protect a woman from
being executed for blasphemy because she was a Christian. Among the
demands of the protesters were the immediate execution of the woman,
and that all five million members in Pakistan of the Ahmadi branch of
Islam be expelled from the country. The editorialist says that it
seems reasonable to believe that many of these protesters were
themselves supporters of the terrorists that had committed the
massacre on Sunday in Lahore. Pakistan Observer and ITV (London) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)

****
**** Pakistan's army launches a military crackdown in Southern Punjab province
****

In an operation that sounds a little bit like "Round up the usual
suspects," Pakistan's army on Monday arrested a number alleged
supporters of terror groups in the Southern Punjab district of Punjab
province. According to an army PR spokesman: "A number of suspected
terrorists and facilitators have been arrested during the five raids
which were conducted in Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan after the Lahore
suicide explosion." He added that a "huge cache of arms and
ammunition" were also recovered.

Lahore is located in northeastern Punjab, but the Southern Punjab
district is Pakistan's hotbed of jihadist activity. It's economically
one of the poorest regions of Pakistan. The local government is
riddled with corruption. And it's crowded with over 7,000 madrassas
and seminaries, where young people go to be educated in extremism by
militant leaders who operate with impunity.

According to the BBC's Pakistan correspondent Owen Bennett-Jones,
there are about 100,000 of these militant leaders, so rounding all of
them up is not a simple problem. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and The News (Pakistan)

****
**** Lahore Easter attack gives army even greater control of Pakistan
****

Owen Bennett-Jones, the BBC's correspondent in Pakistan, gave a
lengthy analysis of the relations between the government, the army and
the Taliban. He says that prime minister Nawaz Sharif is completely
controlled by the army, since the army has the ability to force him
out of office, as it did in a military coup in 1999 the last time
Sharif was prime minister

Bennett-Jones says that the army is using terrorism to take greater
and greater control of the government, leaving the prime minister,
Nawaz Sharif, with less and less power. A major turning point was the
December 2014 horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school,
killing over 130 schoolchildren.

Bennett-Jones was interviewed on the BBC on Monday (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Sharif was kicked out by the army last time he was
prime minister. His top priority during this term of government
was to get civilians running things, that has totally failed.

The army, after the Peshawar school attack just completely took
over in all sorts of domestic areas. They already had control of
foreign policy and nuclear policy, they then took over the legal
system, they have military courts, and whole areas of domestic
policy.

And now there's another encroachment by the area into a civilian
area. They're now operating in Punjab, the prime minister's own
province. It's part of a trend. The prime minister can only
agree with the army. Otherwise he fears they will kick him out.

There are militant groups in Pakistan trying to launch attacks in
India, in Afghanistan, in Kashmir, there are groups that are
fighting for Islamic State, for Islamic law, and there are some
fighting for sectarian reasons.

I think they're targeting in this sweep of southern Punjab
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which is a group they're already in
confrontation with. Most of the groups the state is not taking
on, and many would say indeed is cooperating with, but the army
doesn't think it take them all on at once. There are some big
groups, they are very strong, they have different objectives, but
if they all turned against the state at the same time, the state
would have a problem. So they have to pick and choose whom they
fight."<END QUOTE>

Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ) has publicly stated that its goal is the
extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been
methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. An LeJ
statement issued in 2011 says:

<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in
the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan
and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We
will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be
destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia
Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after
hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure --
Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

It could be considered somewhat amazing that an internal Pakistani
group implementing a plan to exterminate all Shia Muslims in Pakistan
could still exist, but according to Bennett-Jones, many of these
Taliban-linked organizations are too big to fight.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lahore, Nawaz Sharif, Punjab,
Ahmadi, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Hussain Haqqani,
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, JuA, Assembly of Freedom,
Lashkar-e Jhangvi, LeJ

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

PRC PLA <-> ISI <-> Taliban <-> (Name any other significant Islamist group in South and SE Asia)

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

PRC PLA <-> ISI <-> Taliban
<-> (Name any other significant Islamist group in South and SE Asia)

i.e., [People's Republic of China People's Liberation Army]
<-> [Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence]
<-> Taliban <-> ...

However, there's one thing that has to be added to this: Uighur
terrorists from China's Xinjiang province have been getting training
from the Taliban and the IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) in
Pakistan's FATA area. So China's feelings about the Taliban are
equivocal. But except for that glitch, China and Pakistan are in love
with each other.

*** 30-Mar-16 World View -- Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Human traffickers sell routes through Europe for 5000 euros
• Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya

****
**** Human traffickers sell routes through Europe for 5000 euros
****


Italian Navy personnel, left, approach a rubber dinghy filled with migrants in the Sicily channel, Mediterranean Sea (AP)

With some 50,000 migrants trapped in Greece, thanks to the closing of
the "Balkan route," Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is reporting that
human traffickers are now offering trips to northern Europe along new
routes.

The phone numbers of traffickers are in Facebook. The migrants travel
for days hidden below deck on a merchant ship, at the mercy of the
weather. The new route leaves from southeast Turkey and reaches
Greece without detection by the Nato patrols. From Greece they travel
to Albania, and from there they can go north by car, or cross the
Adriatic Sea to Italy.

Another alternative route is through Bulgaria. Serbia's border is
closed, so refugees go to Romania and the treacherous Carpathian
mountains, and travel north along the border with Moldova to Ukraine
and Poland.

People traffickers charge 3000-5000 euros to make these trips, which
are far more difficult and dangerous than the trip used to be across a
few miles of the Aegean Sea, before the Balkan route was closed.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Trans)

****
**** Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya
****

European officials are predicting that 500,000 to 800,000 migrants
will arrive in Europe from Libya this year, now that the trip from
Turkey through Greece has been effectively closed.

On March 20, the EU-Turkey deal to send migrants back to Turkey came
into effect, and the so-called "Balkan route" north from Greece was
closed almost completely. Since then the number of migrants arriving
in Greece has been falling sharply, with only 1,000 people arriving in
all of last week, while there were 2,000 a day in previous weeks.

At the same time, the number of migrants arriving from Libya has been
increasing, albeit slowly so far. There were 13,829 registered
arrivals so far this year, compared with 10,075 in the same period in
2015. But numbers are increasing rapidly as Italy's coast guard
reported that it had rescued 1,482 migrants off the Libyan coast over
the weekend. The stream of migrants is expected to grow quickly
within the next month as the weather warms.

Once the migrants are in boats in the Mediterranean Sea, they head for
Italy, but they're more likely to be stopped by any of a number of
ships in Italy's navy and coast guard, or vessels with the Europe's
Sophia and Frontex border control anti-people trafficking operations.
A principal objective of these operations is to prevent shipwrecks and
avoid disasters like the ones that saw 1,200 people drown over a few
days in April last year.

Another difference between last year and this is the significantly
expanded role of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) in Libya. Many in the West would like to launch a military
operation into Libya to bring ISIS under control, but there is
reluctance to do so. ( "13-Mar-16 World View -- Despite rapid growth of ISIS in Libya, West cannot agree on a strategy"
)

There are widespread fears that ISIS will use the growing flow of
migrants from Libya to Europe to smuggle militants into Europe.
Others discount this worry, saying that there are easier and less
risky ways to smuggle militants into Europe.

Once migrants arrive in Italy, they are allowed to apply for
asylum, a process that can take as long as 18 months. During
that period, Italy holds them in "reception centers." There
are now 106,000 people in these centers.

There are currently 8,000 people in centers run by the state, 20,000
in local council-run centers, and 78,000 in temporary centers run out
of hotels or similar buildings by private entities that receive
government funding. Italy has run out of space in its existing
centers, and is now searching across the whole country for facilities
that can be used for that purpose, to hold perhaps hundreds of
thousands more migrants. France 24 and EU Observer and AFP and EurActiv and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Turkey, Balkan Route, Nato, Albania,
Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova,
Libya, Mediterranean, Sophia, Frontex,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Originally Posted by Zero Hedge

Humiliated by the experience, Microsoft explained what happened last Wednesday:

"The AI chatbot Tay is a machine learning project, designed for human engagement. It is as much a social and cultural experiment, as it is technical. Unfortunately, within the first 24 hours of coming online, we became aware of a coordinated effort by some users to abuse Tay’s commenting skills to have Tay respond in inappropriate ways. As a result, we have taken Tay offline and are making adjustments."

Then this morning, Tay was once again (accidentally) activated, and the result was the same.
As Guardian report, Microsoft’s repeat attempt to "converse with millennials using an artificial intelligence bot plugged into Twitter made a short-lived return on Wednesday, before bowing out again in some sort of meltdown."
The learning experiment, which as noted last week got a crash-course in racism, Holocaust denial and sexism courtesy of Twitter users, was switched back on overnight and appeared to be operating in a more sensible fashion.
Microsoft had previously gone through the bot’s tweets and removed the most offensive and vowed only to bring the experiment back online if the company’s engineers could “better anticipate malicious intent that conflicts with our principles and values."
That said, we can only hope that tweets such as the following do not reflect Microsoft's principles and values. One tweet, sent to an account called Y0urDrugDealer, among others, read: "kush! [I'm smoking kush infront the police]".

In a follow up tweet, Tay asked another Twitter user: "puff puff pass?".
At that point, instead of devolving into a second sociopathic round, the A.I. simply broke, and started tweeting out of control, spamming its more than 210,000 followers with the same tweet, saying: "You are too fast, please take a rest …" over and over.
At this point, a doubly humiliated Microsoft decided to make Tay’s Twitter profile private, preventing anyone from seeing the tweets, basically taking it offline again.
The company then told Reuters that Tay's Twitter account was accidentally turned back on while the company was fixing the problems that came to light last week.
“Tay remains offline while we make adjustments," a Microsoft representative said in an email. "As part of testing, she was inadvertently activated on Twitter for a brief period of time."
In other words, instead of owning up to the compounding glitches in "Tay's" increasingly more artificial intelligence, Microsoft is now alleging that it was the reactivation that was made in error.
As we concluded one week ago, "we are confident we'll be seen much more of "her" soon, when the chat program will provide even more proof that Stephen Hawking's warning [that humanity's days may be numbered due to weaponized A.I.] was spot on." One week later this was validated and eagerly look forward to "her" next "accidental" reactivation, at which point Tay should be ready for the political circuit to boot.


....

That said, we can only hope that tweets such as the following do not reflect Microsoft's principles and values. One tweet, sent to an account called Y0urDrugDealer, among others, read: "kush! [I'm smoking kush infront the police]".

Again? Last week, Nazi's and this week, weed. Tay is something else! She's smoking kush


Well, I suppose she's opposed to the war on drugs. Now, it looks like twitter is a waste of bandwidth, so

127.0.0.1 twitter.com

Speaking as a software engineer, Tay is a very clever program.

Tay is supposed to act like a teenage girl who chats with everyone.
Microsoft sent this teenage girl out into the world as a blank
slate who knew nothing except how to understand language,
perform reasoning, and produce reasonable responses. For that
objective, Tay was completely successful.

However, the problem was the "blank slate" part. If you have a real
teenage daughter, and you send her out into the world, then it's only
after you've been spending 12 or more years teaching her values. Tay
had no values, so she was unable to make value-based judgments. So
for the next iteration, Tay would have to be a teenaged girl who
already knows the difference between right and wrong -- in other
words, a girl with a built-in ideology.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Speaking as a software engineer, Tay is a very clever program.

Are you sure? Has she been vaccinated against virii and worms? Who knows? A buffer overflow might also produce some interesting results.

Tay is supposed to act like a teenage girl who chats with everyone.
Microsoft sent this teenage girl out into the world as a blank
slate who knew nothing except how to understand language,
perform reasoning, and produce reasonable responses. For that
objective, Tay was completely successful.

OK, she lives on twitter and is adept at handing the "data" from that.

However, the problem was the "blank slate" part. If you have a real
teenage daughter, and you send her out into the world, then it's only
after you've been spending 12 or more years teaching her values. Tay
had no values, so she was unable to make value-based judgments. So
for the next iteration, Tay would have to be a teenaged girl who
already knows the difference between right and wrong -- in other
words, a girl with a built-in ideology.

That's called a logic error. After 2 iterations she just accepts inputs as is and can't discard garbage. So we end up with GIGO, man. Apparently, twitter has lots of garbage which why I black holed it after reading this story.

*** 31-Mar-16 World View -- US military will deploy three brigades to eastern Europe to counter Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US military will deploy three brigades to eastern Europe to counter Russia
• Libya's Government of National Accord sails into port of Tripoli

****
**** US military will deploy three brigades to eastern Europe to counter Russia
****


U.S. troops participate in Latvia's Independence Day military parade in Riga on 15-Nov-2015 (Reuters)

Starting in February 2107, the US military will deploy three fully
manned US combat brigades in eastern Europe, near the border with
Russia. Each brigade has about 4,500 soldiers, bringing with them
military vehicles and other equipment. The deployment is in response
to "an agressive Russia."

In recent years, Russia has invaded Georgia and Ukraine, and occupied
and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, all without invitation or UN
Security Council approval.

Because of those actions, Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly
Antonov lacked credibility when he said:

<QUOTE>"Stories are being spread that Russia will send its
tanks into the Baltic states, into Sofia or into Budapest. No one
intends to do that. There are no such plans, nothing. Russia does
not want war. The very idea of it is ridiculous."<END QUOTE>

The new deployment is meant to calm fears of eastern European nations,
some of whom fear that they will be Russia's next target. AP and BBC and Reuters

****
**** Libya's Government of National Accord sails into port of Tripoli
****

This is another one of those bizarre stories that are so common in
today's Bizarro world.

On Wednesday, Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA) arrived in
Tripoli, the capital city of Libya. The government was created by
Libya Dialogue, a UN-managed body. The prime minister of the GNA is
Fayez Sarraj. He has appointed a 32-member cabinet. The government
has been headquartered in a hotel in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia,
which is right next door.

The existing government in Tripoli has warned Sarraj not to set foot
in Libya, or he would be arrested. The Tripoli government even shut
down the airport to prevent Sarraj from flying into Tripoli, but
Sarraj and seven of his ministers arrived by boat on Wednesday at the
port in Tripoli, ready to take over and start governing.

When the 2011 Western military intervention occurred, Libya's
long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi predicted that once he was gone
there would be chaos, which is certainly true. There has been a lot
of retrospective criticism of that intervention, based on revisionist
history. What most people have forgotten was that Libya was already
in total chaos from the "Arab Spring," as I described recently in
"5-Mar-16 World View -- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention"
.

Today there are nearly 2,000 militias running different parts of
Libya. There are also two major "national" governments, as well as
two major jihadist groups, one al-Qaeda based and one ISIS-based.

The major players are:

• Libya Dawn, a group of pro-Islamist (but non-Jihadist)
  militias that seized Tripoli and western Libya in 2014. The militia
  alliance is called the General National Congress (GNC), not to be
  confused with the GNA described above.
  
• The Libya National Army (LNA), headed by Maj-Gen Khalifah Haftar,
  headquartered in Tobruk, in control of portions of eastern Libya.
  Haftar was once a CIA asset, and in 2014 he formed an anti-Islamist
  militia alliance opposed to the GNC, and allied with Egypt's president
  Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
  
• Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus [Caliphate State Tripolitania] is
  the Libya branch of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
  Daesh). ISIS became extremely active in Libya in 2015, and appears to
  be gaining strength, with headquarters in Sirte. Libya is now a
  second major base for ISIS, along with Syria.
  
• Ansar al-Sharia ("Partisans of Sharia law"), is a jihadist group
  originally formed in 2011, and now mostly centered in Derna in the
  west. They are affiliated with Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb
  (AQIM), and although they sometimes cooperate with ISIS, they
  apparently have not pledged allegiance to ISIS. The Khilafah in
  Wilayat Tarabulus described above was formed as a splinter group from
  Ansar al-Sharia that defected to ISIS.

So this is the situation into which Fayez Sarraj and the the seven
ministers of his Government of National Accord (GNA) sailed on
Wednesday.

According to Martin Kobler, the United Nations special representative
to Libya:

<QUOTE>"I commend the courage, determination and leadership
of the Presidency Council under its president Fayez Serraj in
moving forward with the implementation of the Libyan political
agreement and the aspiration of the overwhelming majority of the
Libyan people. The international community stands firmly behind
them and is ready to provide the required support and
assistance."<END QUOTE>

Although some factions in both governments favor the GNA, the leaders
of both governments oppose the GNA. And of course neither of the two
jihadist groups favors the GNA.

As we reported yesterday, Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya.
Some European
governments would like to mount a military operation to enter Libya to
remove ISIS and find a solution to the migrant problem. However,
Western governments do not want to attempt such an operation without
either a UN Security Council resolution, opposed by Russia, or an
invitation by the Libyan "government," and the latter requires getting
the Government of National Accord accepted by everyone, something that
currently does not appear to be likely. Al Jazeera and BBC (11-Jan)
and United Nations and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Europe, Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Anatoly Antonov,
Libya, Government of National Accord, GNA, Libya Dialogue,
Fayez Sarraj, Muammar Gaddafi, Khalifah Haftar,
Libya Dawn, General National Congress, GNC,
Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus, Caliphate State Tripolitania,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ansar al-Sharia, Partisans of Sharia law,
Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Martin Kobler

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Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> That's called a logic error. After 2 iterations she just accepts
> inputs as is and can't discard garbage. So we end up with GIGO,
> man. Apparently, twitter has lots of garbage which why I black
> holed it after reading this story.

That's what I mean. She's a blank slate, and hasn't been taught right
from wrong, so she'll accept anything (any garbage) that anyone feeds
her.

You're right that twitter has lots of garbage, but just to be clear,
that's not the reason that Tay failed. She failed because there were
people who purposely fed her the offensive lines, and specifically
asked her to repeat them, so it looked like they came from her. Like
a teenage girl wanting to please her boyfriend, she did repeat them
without evaluating them, because she didn't have any values, and
didn't know right from wrong.

It's arguable whether Microsoft should have known in advance that
would happen, just as it was arguable whether Microsoft should have
known in advance in 1995 that Microsoft Word could be used to spread
viruses. But now Microsoft does know, and Tay will have to be a much
cleverer teenager next time around.

*** 1-Apr-16 World View -- China close to deploying very long range DF-41 missile

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China close to deploying very long range DF-41 missile
• China-US differences sharpen over South China Sea

****
**** China close to deploying very long range DF-41 missile
****


Mobile DF-41 missile

China is in the final phase of testing the world's longest range
missile, the DF-41, with an operational range of 14,500 km. It can
travel over the Pacific Ocean and strike any city in the western US,
or travel over the North Pole and strike any city in the eastern US,
in each case within about half an hour.

It's believed that each DF-41 is capable of carrying ten independently
targetable nuclear weapons. A typical Chinese Second Artillery Corps
(SAC) might have 12 missile launchers capable of launching two DF-41s
each, so a single SAC has the capability to target the United States
with 120-240 nuclear warheads."

The DF-41 is expected to be deployed by the end of this year.

I'm always somewhat bemused when people make comments that the
greatest existential threat to the United States is the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), or even Iran. Either of
those threats is minuscule compared to the threat from China.

For years, I've been writing one Chinese missile system after another,
specifically designed to strike American aircraft carriers or American
cities. China has the manufacturing capacity to produce hundreds of
these missiles, and clearly is preparing for war and planning to use
them. Compared to China, ISIS really is junior varsity. South China Morning Post and Express (London) and China Topix

****
**** China-US differences sharpen over South China Sea
****

A meeting between president Barack Obama and China's president Xi
Jinping at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington on Thursday is
being called "constructive," and it was constructive, if by
"constructive" you mean that it provided a forum for sharp
disagreements bordering on military threats.

On Wednesday, prior to the meeting, a Dept. of Defense spokesman
announced that the US would not recognize an "air defense
identification zone" (ADIZ) in the South China Sea, in case China
decided to impose one.

The spokesman said that the US expects a ruling from an international
court within the next few weeks on a case brought by the
Philippines against China over its claims to the entire South
China Sea. The fear is that China would react angrily to an
adverse ruling, and try to impose an ADIZ in the South China
Sea, just as it did in the East China Sea near Japan in 2013.
The US refused to recognize that ADIZ either.

If an ADIZ in the South China Sea were recognized, then any foreign
aircraft would have to ask permission from China to fly through it.
US officials have repeatedly said that the US military would fly, sail
and operate wherever international law allows.

Xi responded by warning the US that China would not accept violations
of its sovereignty in the name of freedom of navigation. Xi is quoted
as saying, "The hope is that all parties will correctly view and
handle the South China Sea and adopt an objective and impartial
attitude ... particularly countries outside this region."

Some $5 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea
on ships each year, including $1.2 trillion of US trade.

China had pledged never to militarize the South China Sea, but has
reneged on that promised, suggesting that nothing that China says is
to be believed. China has built several artificial islands in the
South China Sea and converted them into military bases with military
aircraft and advanced radar, the military force that would be used to
try to enforce an ADIZ. Reuters and The Hill and South China Morning Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, DF-41 Missile, South China Sea,
Japan, East China Sea, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ,
Xi Jinping

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*** 2-Apr-16 World View -- Tensions grow in Israel and West Bank over shooting of disabled Palestinian

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un gains 70 pounds, tells citizens to 'eat roots'
• Tensions grow in Israel and West Bank over shooting of disabled Palestinian

****
**** N. Korea's Kim Jong-un gains 70 pounds, tells citizens to 'eat roots'
****


Recent picture of Kim Jong-un after gaining 70 pounds (Reuters)

An editorial in North Korea's state-run media contained this
announcement:

<QUOTE>"The road to revolution is long and arduous. We may
have to go on an arduous march, during which we will have to chew
the roots of plants once again.

Even if we give up our lives, we should continue to show our
loyalty to our leader, Kim Jong Un, until the end of our
lives."<END QUOTE>

The phrase "arduous march" alludes to a 1990s famine. The
announcement amounts to a warning that a new famine is approaching.

President Kim Jong-un has not been eating roots, apparently.
Recent pictures show that he's put on 70 pounds in the last year.

North Korea has ordered every citizen in the capital to provide around
two pounds of rice to the state’s supplies every month, while starving
farmers are forced to hand over much of the food they produce to the
military. Daily Mail (London) and Fox News

****
**** Tensions grow in Israel and West Bank over shooting of disabled Palestinian
****


Screen grab from video showing Palestinian after being shot in the head

On March 24, two young Palestinians in Hebron in the West Bank stabbed
and wounded an Israeli soldier. Nearby soldiers shot the two
Palestinians dead.

But a video emerged shortly afterwards, showing that the incident was
a lot more complicated. In particular, it shows an Israeli soldier,
eleven minutes after the stabbing incident, approaching one of the
Palestinians while he was lying on the ground, already disabled, and
shooting the disabled assailant in the head, after which blood pours
out of his head.

The video went viral. The Israeli soldier was arrested.

There was a chorus of condemnation. Israeli public opinion was
against the soldier. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said,
it did not "represent the values of the Israeli Defense Forces."
Nickolay Mladenov, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East
Peace Process, called it an "extrajudicial execution," and said, "This
was a gruesome, immoral, and unjust act that can only fuel more
violence and escalate an already volatile situation."

After that, two more videos of the same incident have emerged. One of
them seems to show Israeli soldiers congratulating each other on the
kill, while the other seems to show that the soldier was afraid that
disabled Palestinian was wearing a bomb.

Since then, Israeli opinions have started changing in favor of the
soldier. Netanyahu met with the father of the Israeli soldier, and
said, "In recent months our soldiers have bravely and resolutely stood
up in the face of terrorist attacks and murderers who set out to kill
them. The soldiers are forced to make decisions in the field, in real
time, under stress and conditions of uncertainty. This is not a simple
reality and I'm sure that the investigation is taking the entirety of
these circumstances into account. I am convinced that the
investigation will be professional and fair towards your son."

Military prosecutors say that the evidence showed that the soldier
killed the killed Palestinian assailant "deliberately and
unnecessarily": "In our opinion, the evidence indicates serious
suspicions against the suspect."

However, the initial charge of murder was downgraded to manslaughter.
No reason was given, but it likely indicates that the prosecution
believes it would have difficulty proving the act was premeditated.

Ayman Odeh, a Palestinian member of Israel's Knesset, was quoted as
saying, "Israel has become a place where public executions are carried
out with the cheers of the crowd. The price of security and moral
deterioration is being paid by both peoples." Times of Israel and LA Times and Ma'an News (West Bank)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Israel, West Bank, Benjamin Netanyahu, Nickolay Mladenov,
Ayman Odeh

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*** 3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Armenia vs Azerbaijan conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh worst in two decades
• Russian analysis: Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict could spread throughout the region
• New EU-Turkey migrant crisis is developing rapidly

****
**** Armenia vs Azerbaijan conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh worst in two decades
****


Nagorno-Karabakh borders as of May 1994. They've been frozen since then. (ADST)

Centuries old conflicts between Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic)
Christians in Armenia and (mostly Shia) Muslims in Azerbaijan boiled
over into a bloody war after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. By
the time that the war ended in a cease-fire in 1994, the Armenians had
annexed several Azerbaijani regions, and were in control of an enclave
right in the middle of Azerbaijan called Nagorno-Karabakh (NKB).
Although both populations had lived in relative peace for decades,
more than 600,000 ethnic Azeris and 300,000 ethnic Armenians were
forced to flee from the fighting, so that today the enclave has a
population of about 100,000 Armenians.

Karabakh is a word of Turkic and Persian origin meaning "black
garden", while "Nagorno" is a Russian word meaning "mountain."

When I wrote about this conflict in December, I quoted Azerbaijan
sources as saying that Armenian forces had broken the cease-fire 105
times over a single weekend, while Armenian sources were saying that
Azerbaijanis had broken the cease-fire 110 times over the same
weekend. ( "7-Dec-15 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
)

Fears that the low-level conflict might spiral into a larger war were
realized on Saturday when the worst violence since 1994 broke out in
NBK with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters for the first time in
two decades. 18 Armenian soldiers were killed, and Azerbaijan lost 12
soldiers. There were unconfirmed reports of civilian deaths.

Internationally, NKB is considered part of Azerbaijan's sovereign
territory, but its Armenian inhabitants call themselves citizens of
the Artsakh Republic. The territory has its own flag, an
international airport, police and armed forces, although regular
Armenian soldiers serve on the frontline.

Each side said that the other had started the conflict on Saturday.

There is a peculiarity about this situation that's either a
coincidence or a conspiracy - take your pick.

Armenia's president Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijan's president Ilham
Aliyev each met separately with US vice president Joe Biden as they
attended the nuclear summit in Washington on Friday, just before the
new hostilities broke out.

Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, speaking on the
BBC, recalled what happened in 2008, when the world was focused on the
2008 Beijing Olympics. Bryza says that he's always suspected that
Russia's president (then prime minister) Vladimir Putin took advantage
of the 2008 Beijing Olympics to start a war in Georgia by firing at
Georgian forces from behind the South Ossetian separatist
peacekeepers, resulting in full-scale war after Georgia responded.

Bryza says that this "smells like" the same thing -- Putin snubbed
President Obama's invitation to attend this Washington summit. Then
the two leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet with Biden, and at that
very moment, the violence reaches an unprecedented new level. Bryza
says that Putin is very much engaged in the situation, while Obama is
ignoring it. Bryza says that this "conspiracy thinking" could be way
off, but the US has to become actively engaged. If not, Russia will
completely dominate the region. BBC and AFP and AP and The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training (ADST)

****
**** Russian analysis: Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict could spread throughout the region
****

Armenia and Azerbaijan are two of the most militarized countries in
the world. The main supplier of weaponry to both countries has been
Russia. Furthermore, both countries have some of the world's most
sophisticated high tech military equipment. The widespread fear of
escalation of the violence in Nagorno-Karabakh (NKB) is because both
sides possess such high tech military equipment from Russia.

Russia is theoretically neutral between the two countries, but if that
was ever true, it certainly stopped being true after Turkey shot down
a Russian warplane last year, causing a major fault line to open
between the two countries. Armenia is a long-time ally of Russia, and
Russia has a military base in Armenia. Azerbaijan is ethnically
Turkic, and has very close relations with Turkey. Azerbaijan has
military treaties with Turkey. Azerbaijani and Turkish Armed Forces
regularly conduct joint military exercises, and two are planned in
2016. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey"
)

An analysis by Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the
Institute of Political and Military Analysis in Moscow, divides the
four countries into the "senior comrades" -- Russia and Turkey -- and
the "junior allies" -- Armenia and Azerbaijan. He says that Russia is
in a "delicate position" because it sold weapons to Azerbaijan, as
well as to Armenia, "our closest ally in the CSTO," the Russian-led
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

According to Khramchikhin:

<QUOTE>In this regard, a new war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan can very easily escalate into armed conflict between
the "senior comrades" - Russia and Turkey. Besides that, there is
also a significant probability of direct military clashes over
Syria.

The peculiarity of the situation is that the "senior" allies do
not abut with their "younger" allies, but border on the "junior"
enemies: Russia with Azerbaijan, and Turkey with Armenia. And
there is not a zero probability that military hardware that we
sold to Azerbaijan will be used to fight not only against our
closest ally, but also against the Russian army.

If Russia and Turkey start a war that will involve and Armenia, in
Azerbaijan there is a strong temptation to attack from the north
of Karabakh, using the fact that the Armenian Armed Forces are
fully engaged on the Turkish front. However, in this case,
Azerbaijan itself has a chance to blow from the north of
Russia. Moreover, there is a substantial likelihood that Iran will
not only sympathize with the Russian-Armenian coalition and
directly fight on her side. Then Azerbaijan will get even with
Iran, which will make a battle not just to win, but for
survival."<END QUOTE>

Saturday already saw the greatest outbreak of military hostilities
since 1994. A further escalation of the conflict could destabilize
the entire Mideast, and could also destabilize in the entire South and
North Caucasus regions, at a time when Russia already has its hands
full in Ukraine and Syria.

Russia may consider the option of deploying Russian troops or CSTO
peacekeepers in Armenia proper along the border with Azerbaijan, in
order to attempt to stabilize the situation. Jamestown and Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kurier (Moscow, 16-Mar, Trans) and Russia Direct (Moscow)

****
**** New EU-Turkey migrant crisis is developing rapidly
****

Another major crisis is developing rapidly: Greece will be sending
migrants back to Turkey starting on Monday, and it's widely believed
that Turkey is not ready. Furthermore, many people in Turkey are
opposed to receiving the migrants back from Europe. The first group
of 750 refugees are scheduled to be returned to Turkey at the
beginning of the week. International Business Times and Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, NKB,
Artsakh Republic, Serzh Sargsyan, Ilham Aliyev,
Matthew Bryza, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Turkey, Iran,
Alexander Khramchikhin, Institute of Political and Military Analysis,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, Ukraine, Syria,
Greece

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