*** 22-Apr-16 World View -- Britain debates which migrants can vote in the 'Brexit' referendum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France to launch new Israeli-Palestinian peace process on May 30
• Britain debates which migrants can vote in the 'Brexit' referendum

****
**** France to launch new Israeli-Palestinian peace process on May 30
****


French president François Hollande and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas

France will launch a new Israeli-Palestinian peace process on May 30,
but without involving the Israelis or the Palestinians.

France will invite ministers from 20 countries to the May 30
conference. The goal of the May 30 meeting was to prepare an
international summit in the second half of 2016. In that case, Israel
and the Palestinians would finally be invited.

According to France's foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, the goal of
the May 30 meeting is clear:

<QUOTE>"To build a collective commitment of the international
community in preparation for paving a diplomatic horizon for
peace. It is in everyone’s interest. The guiding principle is also
clear and recognized: The two-state solution. I want to return to
the guiding principles of this solution, because there is a
tendency not to mention them. We are talking about the State of
Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace and
security, with secure and recognized borders on the basis of the
1967 borders, with Jerusalem their shared capital."<END QUOTE>

Here we go again. This is essentially the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace"
that was offered by President Bush in 2003. As I wrote in May 2003 in
"Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", the plan would not succeed because Generational
Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war
that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the
state of Israel.

Since 2003, there have been five Mideast wars: the war between
Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the
war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that
led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between
Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel
and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.

Beyond that, the Arab Awakening has destabilized countries all around
the Mideast, given rise to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), and inflamed the sectarian fault lines between Sunnis
and Shias from India to Algeria.

But Ayrault is unfazed by all that:

<QUOTE>"I did not say it would be easy. The parties are now
far apart, maybe more than ever. We have on one side, in Israel, a
government that shows more and more ambivalence to the two-state
plan... and on the other side the Palestinians, who are not only
divided [on this question], but also must address growing anger
from their public. And we also have the situation itself — there
is no need to mention there have already been two conflicts in six
years. Is there an alternative to the plan we are proposing? The
only other option is a fatalistic acceptance of conflict. I reject
that approach."<END QUOTE>

So I guess Ayrault will be Pollyannaish, and leave being fatalistic to
people like me. Haaretz (Israel) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Israel National News

****
**** Britain debates which migrants can vote in the 'Brexit' referendum
****

Europeans who have been following the American primary elections have
expressed astonishment and puzzlement over the complexity of America's
election laws. However, they might wish to take a look at the UK
elections laws for the June 23 referendum that will decide "Brexit,"
whether Britain will exit from the European Union.

Nominally, British and Irish citizens will be permitted to vote "yes"
or "no" in the referendum. But this simple formula is complicated by
two issues.

The first issue is migrants from other countries who are living in
Britain. The rule is that even if the migrant is not British or Irish
citizen, he can still vote in the referendum, provided that he's from
one of the Commonwealth countries. When the British Empire broke up
after World War II, it was replaced by the British Commonwealth of
Nations, consisting mostly of former British colonies. The Queen is
still nominally the head of state for the Commonwealth countries.

I listed the 53 countries in the Commonwealth and some of the
controversies surrounding the Commonwealth in a 2007 article, "Pakistan is suspended from the British Commonwealth of Nations"
.

So this rule has quite a few anomalies. A migrant from France or
Italy working in Britain would not be eligible to vote in the
referendum. But a migrant from Australia, Bangladesh, Jamaica, Kenya,
the Bahamas, Uganda or Zambia would be eligible to vote in the
referendum. The only two European countries that are in the
Commonwealth are Malta and Cyprus, and so migrants from those
countries would be eligible to vote.

Obviously, this situation is raising complaints. According to Lord
Green, the founder of the campaign group Migration Watch UK:

<QUOTE>"Of course we are not opposed to Commonwealth citizens
who are also British citizens having a vote. But if they are not
yet British or have decided not to become British it is surely
wrong that they should be able to."<END QUOTE>

The total number of Commonwealth migrants potentially eligible to vote
in the referendum is 1.3 million, a number large enough to possibly
affect the referendum results.

I said that there were two issues, and the second issue has to do with
migration in the other direction. According to the "15 year rule," a
citizen of Britain who is living and working in another country is
eligible to vote in the referendum only if he's lived in Britain at
some time in the last 15 years.

The referendum highlights a particular problem for expats living in
another EU country. British citizens living in the EU are also EU
citizens, and can live and work in other countries, retire there, and
receive health care free at the point of use, paid for by Britain's
National Health Service (NHS).

Estimates are that there are 1-2 million expats in this category who
moved into another EU country more than 15 years ago. They're unable
to vote in the referendum, even though a Brexit "yes" vote could leave
them in limbo, because they'd lose their EU citizenship. CNBC and Telegraph (London) and Express (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Israel, Palestinian Authority,
Jean-Marc Ayrault, Britain, Brexit, British Commonwealth,
Lord Green

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*** 23-Apr-16 World View -- 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement
• The 'science' of climate change
• President Obama threatens Britain over 'Brexit' referendum
• Report: China to build floating nuclear power plants in South China Sea
• S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years

****
**** 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement
****


John Kerry and his granddaughter sign the climate change agreement

175 countries on Friday signed the climate change agreement that was
produced a climate change conference in December.

The climate change agreement is total farce for many reasons,
including the fact that it's not binding on anyone. The "historic"
signing ceremony will be forgotten in a few days, just as December's
"historic" climate change conference was forgotten in a few days.
There are other things to worry about -- the war in Syria,
China's militarization of the South China Sea, Russia's annexation
of Crimea, and so forth.

The climate change agreement is more entertainment than anything else.
In fact, the main speaker at the signing ceremony: Movie star and
entertainer Leonardo DiCaprio. He entertained everyone by making a
truly idiotic speech comparing climate change to slavery:

<QUOTE>"[Lincoln] was speaking before the U.S. Congress to
confront the defining issue of his time: slavery. Remarkably, his
words ring as true today when applied to the defining crisis of
our time: climate change. ...

After 21 years of debates and conferences, it is time to declare:
no more talk, no more excuses, no more 10-year studies, no more
allowing the fossil fuel companies to manipulate and dictate the
science and policies that affect our future."<END QUOTE>

Blah, blah, blah, on and on.

Entertainment Weekly and VOA and Guardian

****
**** The 'science' of climate change
****

Just to make things clear, here are some other things wrong with the
climate change hysteria:

• It may or may not be "science" that humans caused climate
  change, but the science stops there. In particular, "science" has no
  idea what's going to happen in the future, especially with the
  approach of the Singularity, which so-called "climate change
  scientists" are scared to death to even mention, because it completely
  invalidates their theory.
  
• Climate change scientists have been making predictions for 20
  years, and they've been consistently wrong. How dumb do you have to
  be to treat as religious gospel the words of people who are wrong
  every time?
  
• There is a very powerful historical precedent
  that "climate change scientists" consistently
  ignore because it completely invalidates their theory.
  
• The new climate change agreement contains no plan, no roadmap,
  nothing that shows how to accomplish the stated goals, because no such
  plan or roadmap exists or could exist.
  
• Based on history and historical precedents, the probability that
  there will be a world war by 2100 is almost 1.0, while the probability
  that politicians will have any effect on climate change by 2100 is
  0.0. In fact, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the
  probability of a world war in the next decade is close to
  1.0.

In his speech, DiCaprio said he was "absolutely terrified" of climate
change, but said nothing about being terrified of the far more likely
world war. Daily Caller and From Horse Power to Horsepower and The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 and Great Moments in Failed Predictions

****
**** President Obama threatens Britain over 'Brexit' referendum
****

President Obama has moved on to Britain, having completed his task in
Saudi Arabia of lecturing the Saudi King that he needs to learn to
"share the neighborhood" with Iran. ( "21-Apr-16 World View -- Saudi King Salman snubs Obama - again - as he arrives for Saudi Arabia summit"
)

In Britain, he discussed the June 23 "Brexit" referendum on whether
Britain should leave the European Union. Obama made it clear that he
wants Brexit to be rejected, and he threatened the government with
regard to the question of a possible US-UK trade agreement if Brexit
occurs. According to Obama, referring to the pro-Brexit politicians
in Britain:

<QUOTE>"They are voicing an opinion about what the United
States is going to do, I figured you might want to hear from the
president of the United States what I think the United States is
going to do.

And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that
maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade
agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our
focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to
get a trade agreement done.

The UK is going to be in the back of the queue."<END QUOTE>

Analysts are undecided as to whether Obama's threat helps the
pro-Brexit side or the anti-Brexit side. Guardian (London)

****
**** Report: China to build floating nuclear power plants in South China Sea
****

According to Chinese media, the China Shipbuilding Industry Corp is
"pushing forward the work" to build floating nuclear power plants in
the South China Sea.

China is annexing the entire South China Sea through military means,
including regions that have historically belonged to other countries.
China has built artificial islands, and is rapidly turning them into
large military bases.

However, they need to burn oil or coal for power, and these large
military bases are far from home, making transportation costs
exorbitant, especially in bad weather. The nuclear power
plants would solve the military problem.

Liberal environmentalists rarely criticize China, and are not
expected to provide more than perfunctory criticism of this
plan, even though an accident could be extremely damaging
to the sea life.

A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry could not comment on the
report, since he said that he hadn't read it. Reuters and Gizmodo

****
**** S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.11 on April 22, indicating a huge and rapidly growing stock market bubble (WSJ)

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's
Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (April 22) was at an
astronomically high 24.11. This is far above the historical average
of 14, indicating that the stock market is growing quickly, and could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

The rapidly rising P/E ratio is a sure sign of trouble. The last time
that the P/E ratio rose above 24 was in April 2008. For the year
following, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 50% to the
6000s level in May 2009.

As the stock market was falling, the Federal Reserve began its massive
quantitative easing program in December 2008, "printing" new money and
pumping it into the banking system, from which it went into the stock
market. The P/E ratio fell below 24 again in December 2009.

Since then, the Fed has lowered interest rates almost to zero, and
there is talk of negative interest rates, which are already the policy
in several other countries, with little effect. ( "11-Mar-16 World View -- In desperation move, European Central Bank further lowers negative interest rates"
)

If you listen to CNBC or Bloomberg TV, as I do for as long as I can
stand it, all they talk about is interest rates set by the Fed and
other central banks. No one seriously believes any more that the
stock market has any relation to the real economy. As long as the Fed
pumps money into the stock market, it will go up; if the Fed stops,
then it will go down.

The reason that stock valuations are surging is because earnings (the
denominator of the P/E ratio) are plummeting. During the first
quarter, earnings have declined 8.9%, with the result that the P/E
ratio is pushed up.

The stock market bubble is getting larger and larger, and there's
going to be a lot of political pressure for the Fed to pump it even
larger, especially from the Obama administration in an election year.
But there is no bubble in history that hasn't burst, and this one is
no exception. The amount of pain that it will cause will be enormous.
Factset Earnings Insight (PDF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, climate change, John Kerry, Leonardo DiCaprio,
Saudi Arabia, Britain, Brexit, China, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio

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*** 24-Apr-16 World View -- Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Europe goes on charm offensive with Turkey on migrant deal
• Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death
• FBI offers to help investigate Bangladesh murders

****
**** Europe goes on charm offensive with Turkey on migrant deal
****


EU and Turkish officials surrounded by hot Muslim chicks at Gaziantep, Turkey, refugee camp on Saturday

The EU-Turkey migrant deal is receiving a lot of criticism from human
rights groups, who claim that it violates international law to send
migrants back to Turkey after they'd risked their lives traveling to
Greece.

However, Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu bragged on Saturday
that the EU-Turkey deal had been extremely successful, since it had
drastically cut the number of migrants traveling from Turkey to
Greece.

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Commission, agreed, and
praised Turkey further:

<QUOTE>"Today Turkey is the best example for the whole world
for how we should treat refugees.

“No one has a right to lecture Turkey on what it should do, I am
really proud that you are my partner and I am absolutely sure that
we will succeed... We have no other way! ...

The way I see it, Turkey has made good progress ahead of decisions
to be taken this summer provided that Turkey meets all the agreed
benchmarks."<END QUOTE>

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also praised Turkey, for issuing work
permits to refugees, so that they can earn a living. Merkel also
reversed an earlier position, and said that she now favors Turkey's
proposals to set up "safe zones" in northern Syria where displaced
Syrians can live and receive humanitarian aid.

The charm offensive took place on Saturday during a visit to the Nizip
refugee camp in Gaziantep province, southeastern Turkey. Merkel and
Tusk led a European delegation to visit the camp, and hold a press
conference to sell the EU-Turkey migrant deal to doubters.

However, Davutoglu also made clear that the EU-Turkey deal would be
canceled if the EU did not fulfill its side of the deal -- easing visa
restrictions, so that Turkish citizens can travel freely through
Europe's Schengen zone without a visa:

<QUOTE>"We see the visa exemption as an inseparable,
fundamental part of the EU-Turkey agreement. Readmission
agreement applies only with visa exemption."<END QUOTE>

There are strong voices of opposition to the visa easing within EU
member countries. As part of the EU-Turkey deal, the EU committed to
removing the visa restriction by June, and so this could become a
major political crisis in the next few weeks.

A number of other problems with the EU-Turkey deal remain to be
solved. The EU had promised Greece that EU member countries would
send a staff of 2,300 experts -- police, case officers, judges, and
language interpreters -- to help process asylum requests, and only a
few of the staff have arrived. Also, approved Syrian refugees are to
be distributed to the EU member countries, but many EU nations are
stalling or refusing to accept more migrants. Anadolu Agency (Turkey) and BBC and AP and Anadolu Agency

****
**** Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death
****

Rezaul Karim Siddique, an English professor at Rajshahi University in
Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, was hacked to death 50 meters
from his home, when he went to catch a bus to campus around 7:30 on
Saturday morning. The brutal killing was similar to increasingly
frequent killings, mainly of secular or atheist bloggers, or any other
media people who they believe pose a threat to their fundamentalist
Islamic teachings and lifestyle.

The new killing is particularly shocking because Siddique was a
religious Muslim, and had not put forward secular or atheistic
opinions.

As we reported just three weeks ago,
Bangladesh is spawning a new, younger generation of jihadist
terrorists who are highly educated and tech-savvy. Leading these
terror groups is Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), which has taken
responsibility for several hacking deaths.

The ISIS-linked Amaq News Agency posted the following message on its
web site:

<QUOTE>"Source to Amaq Agency: Islamic State fighters
assassinate a university teacher for calling to atheism in the
city of Rajshahi in Bangladesh. Amaq Agency"<END QUOTE>

It's hard to know what to make of this claim, since Bangladesh is
geographically very remote from Syria. It's possible that the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is taking credit
for something it didn't do. It's also possible that the murder was
perpetrated by ABT or some other jihadist group that was planning to
pledge allegiance to ISIS.

However, another news report quotes local police as saying that
"Though his murder was initially claimed by Islamist radicals, police
later ruled out that possibility. Police said he was murdered as a
sequel to personal rivalry." Dhaka Tribune and AP and Amaq Agency (ISIS) and BDNews24 (Dhaka)

****
**** FBI offers to help investigate Bangladesh murders
****

After the murder on April 8 of student activist Nazimuddin Samad, who
was hacked and shot to death by three assailants riding motorcycles,
the US State Department offered to help, according to spokesman Mark
Toner:

<QUOTE>"We've offered assistance to the Bangladeshi
government, collaboration on the investigations, FBI assistance.

These are horrific attacks. We urge the Bangladeshi authorities to
take them very seriously."<END QUOTE>

In March 2009, the FBI was asked to help investigate an extremely
brutal mutilation and massacre of 76 Bangladesh army officers by
border guards under their command. ( "(4-March-2009) FBI will aid Bangladesh investigation of border guard officer massacre"
) In the end, a total of 847 defendants
were tried, en masse, and 152 sentenced to hang, with hundreds more
facing long jail terms.

Bangladesh's last generational crisis war was the incredibly bloody
and brutal 1971 civil war that made the former state of East Pakistan
into the independent nation of Bangladesh.

As I wrote in detail in my article at the time, the war was between
two ethnic groups, both Muslim.

One group were the Muslim Biharis ("Urdu-walla" or Urdu speaking) from
northern India, a "market-dominant minority," only 12% of t he
population, controlling the government and major businesses. The
other group were the Bengalis, a poor majority, speaking the Bengali
language, working at menial tasks in the employ of the Urdu-speaking
minority.

So the 2009 massacre was an echo of the 1971 civil war, with the poor,
majority, lower-caste ethnic Bengali border guards massacring the
market-dominant minority high-caste Biharis.

Now we have a new series of brutal massacres going on. The news
reports do not indicate that ethnicity of the people involved, but
(going out on a limb) it would seem likely that a college professor
was a Bihari, and the murderers were Bengalis. If news reports
provide further information supporting or contradicting this
assessment, then I'll report it.

Earlier in this article, I quoted a news story that said, "Police said
he was murdered as a sequel to personal rivalry." In other words,
it's very likely that Saturday's slaughter was related to the 1971 war
between Biharis and Bengalis, rather than a jihadist attack by ISIS,
and that ISIS was claiming credit for something they had nothing to do
with, making them typical politicians.

The FBI has offered to help with the investigation, but this isn't an
Agatha Christie murder mystery that can be solved by clever sleuthing,
or even a CSI murder mystery that can be solved by running DNA tests.
It's something runs deep in the core of Bangladeshi society, and no
real solution exists. VOA and Economist (9-Nov-2013)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Turkey,
Ahmet Davutoglu, Donald Tusk, Angela Merkel, Germany,
Nizip refugee camp, Gaziantep province,
Bangladesh, Rezaul Karim Siddique, Rajshahi University,
Ansarullah Bangla Team, ABT, Amaq News Agency,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
FBI, Mark Toner, East Pakistan, Biharis, Bengalis, Nazimuddin Samad

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*** 25-Apr-16 World View -- Largest protests in years planned for Cairo Egypt on Monday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt arrests journalists in cafes and homes ahead of Monday protests
• Egypt's al-Sisi warns of 'chaos' in Monday's Sinai Liberation Day protests
• Sudan and Tunisia prepare for simultaneous protests in solidarity

****
**** Egypt arrests journalists in cafes and homes ahead of Monday protests
****


Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi with military guard

With large protests expected in Cairo on Monday, Egypt's government is
conducting a security crackdown. At least 47 arrest warrants have
been issued since Thursday, and dozens of citizens have been arrested
without notice from cafes and private residences. Security forces
threatened the families of people who were not at home at the time of
the attempted arrest.

The crackdowns are targeting bloggers and journalists who have been
critical of the government of president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
especially the recent agreement with Saudi Arabia that gave up two Red
Sea islands in exchange for $22 billion in investments.

Those who are arrested are facing charges of inciting illegal
protests, affiliation with a banned organization, attempting to
overthrow the regime, promoting false news and information aimed at
disturbing public order. Some are accused of "to threatening to use
violence against the president of the republic while he is acting
within his constitutional authorities." Daily News Egypt and AP

****
**** Egypt's al-Sisi warns of 'chaos' in Monday's Sinai Liberation Day protests
****

Some of the largest protests in years, reminiscent of the protests
that brought down Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011, are
expected on Monday, the anniversary of Sinai Liberation Day, referring
to the "liberation" of Sinai from Israel.

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is warning of "chaos" and
"destabilization attempts" over the planned demonstrations and
protests planned for Monday by opposition political parties and
movements. In a nationally televised speech, al-Sisi said:

<QUOTE>"I see there are people calling once again for damage
to [Egypt's] security and stability. Our responsibility is to
protect security and stability, and I promise Egyptians that no
one will terrorize them again.

Still there are evil powers that aim to destabilize stability and
safety inside Egypt. Over the last three years, we have succeeded
in establishing state institutions, such as the parliament,
constitution and presidency. The survival of these institutions
means the survival of Egypt. ...

Security services ... will confront with extreme rigor any
attempt to disturb public order."<END QUOTE>

Al-Sisi is deploying hundreds of troops to maintain peace, and is
warning that a repeat of large past protests will be punished.

Monday is Sinai Liberation Day, commemorating April 25, 1982, when all
Israeli forces were withdrawn from the Sinai Peninsula, and the land
was returned to Egyptian control.

The call for protests was triggered by a historical coincidence.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia recently signed a deal to build a bridge over
the Red Sea connecting the two countries, and there have already been
a day of protests on April 15. ( "16-Apr-16 World View -- Egypt-Saudi deal for Red Sea bridge triggers massive protests in Cairo"
)

The deal called for Saudi Arabia to invest $22 billion development
projects in Egypt. The deal also called for Egypt to give two
disputed Red Sea islands, the Sanafir and Tiran islands, to Saudi
Arabia. The coincidence of giving up sovereignty in the two islands
just days before the celebration of regaining sovereignty from Israel
of the Sinai Peninsula triggered a nationalist fury in many Egyptians.

A petition titled "Egypt is not for sale," which calls for a reversal
of the decision on the islands and supports the protests, was signed
by more than 300 Egyptian novelists, lawyers and activists. However,
the anger of the protesters goes far beyond the loss of the two
islands. After the 2011 Arab Awakening, Egyptians had hoped and
prayed that a new government would not only bring stability to the
country, but would also improve human rights, end abuses by security
forces, and end government corruption.

None of these hopes has been realized. The number of jihadist
terrorist attacks has been increasing, security forces are as brutal
and abusive as ever, and protesters say that government corruption is
as bad as ever.

With some activists promoting violence, and with the security forces
prepared to respond to violence with violence, it's possible that the
protests could spiral out of control and even put al-Sisi's presidency
in danger. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Egyptian Streets and AP

****
**** Sudan and Tunisia prepare for simultaneous protests in solidarity
****

Tunisian activists have called for protests in front of the Egyptian
Embassy in Tunis on Monday, in solidarity with the protests planned
for Cairo. According to the statement, "We reject the arrests carried
out recently by President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi against the Egyptian
people in an attempt to thwart the 25 April movement organized by a
group of revolutionary forces in Egypt."

Since Egypt has just given two islands to Saudi Arabia, Sudan is
hoping that Egypt will concede in another border dispute. The Halayeb
and Shalateen Triangle is part of the shared border between Egypt and
Sudan. Egypt says that the 8,000 square mile region has fallen within
Egypt's borders since 1820, when Muhammad Ali, the Ottoman ruler of
Egypt, put Sudan under his political authority. On the other hand,
Sudan says that an 1899 agreement between the two countries grants the
region to Sudan. But Egypt points out that a 1909 joint
Egyptian-Sudanese map puts the territory inside Egypt. But Sudan
points out that Sudan had sovereign control over the region from 1899
to 1958, a period during which Sudan governed the area uninterrupted
and without objection.

There have been threats of war over the disputed region, but both
sides say that they hope to resolve the dispute through peaceful
negotiations. Daily News Egypt and Anadolu (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Saudi Arabia, Sinai Liberation Day, Israel,
Red Sea, Sanafir and Tiran islands, Tunisia, Sudan,
Halayeb and Shalateen Triangle, Muhammad Ali

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*** 26-Apr-16 World View -- Obamacare continues death spiral as Britain's NHS faces strike

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's NHS facing massive strike from 'junior doctors'
• Britain's NHS financial crisis is being tied to the 'Brexit' debate
• Obama administration tries to find money to save Obamacare

****
**** Britain's NHS facing massive strike from 'junior doctors'
****


Striking protesters carry signs saying 'Destroy the patriarchy, not the NHS' and 'Victory to the junior doctors' (Press Association)

As we've been reporting since October, Britain's National Health
Service (NHS) is facing an existential crisis, with a huge and
accelerating deficit expected to reach 22 billion pounds ($32 billion)
by 2020. ( "5-Aug-15 World View -- Britain's National Health Service (NHS) faces existential financial crisis"
)

Now the NHS is facing a massive strike from "junior doctors," after
Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said he's unwilling to compromise on
a contract that would increase working hours. Junior doctors, the
backbone of the NHS, whose workday now ends at 7 pm, would have the
workday extended to 10 pm. Also, for the first time, their normal
working week would include Saturday from 7am to 5pm. The strike is
scheduled to last 48 hours, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The system is deeply corrupt, with doctors falsifying records,
claiming for work that was never done, or putting in for bogus
overtime. Dentistry services are so bad that people are buying
"do-it-yourself (DIY) dentistry kits" to take care of their whole
families, as was done centuries ago.

Because the NHS bureaucracy is so old and bloated, and because the
services are "free," costs can only be controlled by rationing,
queuing, reduced quality and artificial cost suppression. UK's
doctors earn far less than doctors in other countries, and UK
specialists earn about half of what they do in America. As a result,
UK's homegrown doctors have left to work in other countries, and NHS
has had to import 28% of its doctors from abroad, usually from poorer
countries where low UK salaries look attractive.

The junior doctors are demonstrating against the contract for the
obvious reasons -- low pay, exhaustion, having little free time to
spend with their families. A substantial number are considering
leaving Britain to practice medicine in other countries, according to
a poll.

However, women's groups are particularly concerned because of the
disproportionate impact that the contract will have on women. Men are
used to working long hours, but women often have to go home on time to
take care of the children. An analysis by the Department of Health
agrees that the new contract "impacts disproportionately on women."
When the new contract going into effect in August, many women will be
forced to quit unless they can find adequate child care, and child
care services are extremely expensive.

The far left British Medical Association, which is leading the strike
action, has launched a judicial review of the legality of the
contract, because it adversely affects women.

However, the Department of Health says that women should stop
complaining, because the new contract levels the playing field between
men and women, which is what feminists want. According to a
Department of Health spokeswoman:

<QUOTE>"This contract is a huge step forward for achieving
fairness for all trainee doctors. For the first time, junior
doctors will be paid and rewarded solely on the basis of their own
hard work and achievement. That is ultimately what employers and
the BMA [British Medical Association] themselves want and everyone
deserves: a level playing field."<END QUOTE>

Guardian (London) and BBC and Guardian and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Britain's NHS financial crisis is being tied to the 'Brexit' debate
****

The "Brexit" debate, and the June 23 referendum to decide whether
Britain will exit from the European Union, is being tied politically
to the NHS financial crisis and the strike by junior doctors.

There are two sides to the story. One side says that if Britain
leaves the European Union, then it would help the NHS financially.
They argue that leaving the EU would mean that Britain could shut the
door to migrants from other European countries, especially Hungary and
other east European countries, who come to the UK to receive free
medical services. In addition, they say that 50 million pounds per
day is being sent to Brussels, and that money could be kept at home to
pour into the NHS.

The other side says that if Britain leaves the European Union, then it
would hurt the NHS financially. They say that health tourism -- where
people travel to the UK to get free medical help -- costs less than
0.1% of the NHS budget. They point out that Norway and Switzerland,
who are not in the EU, still must pay similar amounts to fund their
cumbersome arrangements with the EU market. Telegraph (London) and BBC
and Independent (London)

****
**** Obama administration tries to find money to save Obamacare
****

On the afternoon of October 1, 2013, President Obama stood up at a
press conference to launch Obamacare. When a reporter asked why so
few people could log on, he answered that millions of people were
enrolling for insurance, so the web sites were slow. As it turned
out, only six people across the country were able to enroll on that
day. How is it possible that Obama and the entire White House were so
completely blindsided by the disaster that was already unfolding that
they didn't even know what was going on hours after the launch had
begun? How many people had to lie? How many people had to commit
fraud? How many people had to be silenced or fired? How many layers
of management were lied to, to prevent Obama from knowing the size of
the disaster, hours after the disaster was already in progress?

To answer these questions, I spent months interviewing a number of
people, including contractors, whistleblowers, analysts, and others,
and I posted the article "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history". The reason that healthcare.gov was a disaster was
that each of the web sites was a $10-20 million software development
project, but the Obama administration funded each web site with
something like $200 million. So when a company like CGI
Corp. receives $200 million for a $10 million project, the objective
is to spend the money. So they hired hundreds of programmers, most of
whom were completely incompetent. So they spent the money, but
couldn't develop the web site.

As part of that project, I also looked into all the other components
of Obamacare -- the exchanges, the co-ops, and the risk corridors.
And as I described in the article, all of them were financial
disasters. Many have gone bankrupt, and others are staying afloat
only because the Obama administration is finding ways to take money
from other projects and pour it into the Obamacare black hole.

The Obama administration started by taking a $730 billion Medicare
fund and using it to fund Obamacare. Millions of people have been
paying for years into the system to create that fund, and Obama threw
it into the toilet. The co-ops and exchanges had operated at big
losses, thinking that the administration would bail them out, but
Congress blocked the administration from taking money from a number of
other projects.

The administration is looking for more ways to bail out Obamacare
co-ops and exchanges, and reports indicate that they're now planning
to use a "reinsurance" mechanism in the enabling legislation that
permit Obama to take money from some insurers and give it to others.
Using that mechanism is supposed to be illegal, but that hasn't
stopped the Obama administration before.

UnitedHealth Group Inc., the country's largest health insurer, has
announced that that they are losing so much money on Obamacare
exchanges that they will leave the exchanges in at least 22 states
where the company sold plans for this year. Not all states have been
named, but they include Florida, Kansas, Texas, North Carolina and
Maryland.

There are 27 million people still uninsured, even though the
administration claims that 22 million more people have insurance now
than before Obamacare, but that claim is fraudulent. Millions more
are effectively uninsured either because they're on Medicaid and can't
find a doctor that accepts Medicaid or they're on an Obamacare plan
with a deductible of $5,000 to $15,000, and have to pay their own
medical expenses anyway, in addition to the premiums.

Blue Cross Blue Shield has done an in-depth study of medical claims in
2014 and 2015, and found that members who newly enrolled in BCBS
individual health plans in 2014 and 2015 have higher rates of certain
diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, depression, coronary artery
disease, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C than
individuals who had BCBS individual coverage prior to health care
reform.

For example, new enrollees have rates of HIV and Hepatitis C of 41 and
24 per 10,000 respectively, compared to 12 and 10 respectively among
those with individual policies prior to Obamacare. Rates of HIV and
Hepatitis C for those who receive insurance through their employers
were 11 per 10,000 for both conditions.

These figures support the view that many people enroll in Obamacare
when they get sick, and then drop out when they get well. Few people
see any point in making premium payments if they're going to be
effectively uninsured.

A new report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office indicates
that Obamacare costs are 10% higher than the CBO predicted a year ago.
What Obamacare and Britain's NHS have in common is that both of them
are in financial death spirals that cannot be sustained. Chicago Tribune and Blue Cross Blue Shield and The Beacon and The Hill and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, National Health Service, NHS,
Jeremy Hunt, Department of Health, British Medical Association,
Brexit, European Union,
Obamacare, healthcare.gov, risk corridors, exchanges, reinsurance,
Blue Cross Blue Shield, Congressional Budget Office

Permanent web link to this article
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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

A vote for Hillary is a vote for failure and for the final submerging of American culture and political aims by the decadent feminine values of the selfish boomers. Especially as it is increasingly likely that sanders would lose the primary; as a result TRUMP is the only viable choice. Trump on once side: the creation of real industry and the building of a formidable war machine to counter Russia and China, the signing of treaties recognizing Russia's near abroad and reaffirming China's rights in Taiwan, limiting the possibility of war with either of those two rivals. Hillary on the other: "love and kindness" and other patheticness, the subsuming of AMERICAN INTERESTS in favor of those of the UN, and NATO and other globalist and free-trade interests. The choice is a no-brainer for Xers and Millies.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> A vote for Hillary is a vote for failure and for the final
> submerging of American culture and political aims by the decadent
> feminine values of the selfish boomers. Especially as it is
> increasingly likely that sanders would lose the primary; as a
> result TRUMP is the only viable choice. Trump on once side: the
> creation of real industry and the building of a formidable war
> machine to counter Russia and China, the signing of treaties
> recognizing Russia's near abroad and reaffirming China's rights in
> Taiwan, limiting the possibility of war with either of those two
> rivals. Hillary on the other: "love and kindness" and other
> patheticness, the subsuming of AMERICAN INTERESTS in favor of
> those of the UN, and NATO and other globalist and free-trade
> interests. The choice is a no-brainer for Xers and
> Millies.

I'm having a lot of trouble deciding who is worse. On the one hand we
have Trump, who hates Mexicans, Muslims and women with periods, and
who has no clue what's going on in the world and will start a war out
of sheer hatred and stupidity. On the other hand we have Clinton, who
knows what's going on in the world because she spent eight years in
the White House with the rapist, but doesn't care and has absolutely
no core beliefs except that women should have free contraceptives, and
will just let a war happen, also out of sheer credulity and stupidity.
This is a country that's in serious trouble.

*** 27-Apr-16 World View -- Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violence spreads across Turkey as both Turkey and PKK escalate fight
• Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1

****
**** Violence spreads across Turkey as both Turkey and PKK escalate fight
****


The PKK flag hangs as armed PKK militants man a barricade in southeastern Turkey on November 15 2015 (AFP)

Ever since the cease-fire agreement between Turkey and the separatist
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) broke down last year in July, the
violence on both sides has been escalating. The PKK has conducted
terrorist attacks, while the Turkish military has attacked PKK havens
in southeast Turkey and northeastern Iraq.

In an interview with the BBC, PKK leader Cemil Bayik blamed Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the surge in fighting, promised to
escalate the terrorist attacks on Turkish targets even further:

<QUOTE>"He [President Erdogan] wants the Kurds to
surrender. If they don't surrender, he wants to kill all Kurds. He
says this openly - he doesn't hide it.

The Kurds will defend themselves to the end, so long as this is
the Turkish approach - of course the PKK will escalate the
war. Not only in Kurdistan, but in the rest of Turkey as well."

We don’t want to divide Turkey. We want to live within the borders
of Turkey on our own land freely... The struggle will continue
until the Kurds’ innate rights are accepted."<END QUOTE>

The PKK has been engaged in violence with Turkey's government for
three decades. The PKK and Turkey agreed to a cease-fire and a "peace
process" in 2013, but that broke down abruptly last year following the
July 20 terrorist attack in the city of attack on Suruç
killing 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish
activists. After that, the ceasefire agreement broke down, and
Erdogan declared war on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country"
)

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded to Bayik's interview with the
BBC:

<QUOTE>"Nobody should doubt it. This fight, which we will
carry out until Turkey saves itself from the problem of terrorism,
will continue without rupture. Hopefully, as a result of this
determined fight, Turkey will be saved soon from this terrorism
problem completely.

Unfortunately, the international community cannot give a good
account of itself and a hypocritical attitude is still embraced on
the issue of terrorism. Tents of a brutal terrorist organization
might be erected in European capitals and their rags [flags] might
be displayed."<END QUOTE>

Davutoglu was alluding to a tent set up by PKK supporters in front of
the European Council building, just two days after a major terrorist
attack on Ankara on March 13, as Davutoglu was visiting Brussels. It
was only after the terrorist attack on Brussels on March 22 that
Belgian police ordered the tent to be taken down, but then it was set
up again elsewhere. Turkish officials were furious that PKK
supporters were permitted to publicize their cause just after a
terrorist attack.

The PKK is listed as a terrorist group by the US and the EU. However,
the Kurds are also a major US ally in Iraq and Syria, fighting the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The US
distinguishes between the PKK versus Kurdish militias fighting ISIS,
but Turkey considers all of them to be terrorists, resulting in policy
conflicts with the West.

The new statements by Davutoglu and Bayik suggest that the fighting is
going to escalate.

As we've been saying since 2003,
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war between Arabs and Jews, between Sunnis and Shias, and
between various ethnic groups. It seems now that every week brings
this prediction a major step closer. BBC and Daily Sabah (Ankara)

****
**** Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1
****

It is now all but certain that Puerto Rico will default on a $422
million debt payment due on May 1.

In January, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) promised that legislative
action would be completed by the end of March to resolve Puerto Rico's
problems before the May 1 deadline. However, Ryan has failed to
accomplish this.

Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate
and a shrinking population, all of which threaten to cause its economy
to collapse.

In many ways, Puerto Rico has gotten a free ride from Congress for
years. Congress granted Puerto Rico investments a "triple-tax free"
tax rate. This means that you can invest in Puerto Rico's bonds and
earn 10% interest every year, and not have to pay federal, state or
municipal tax on the interest you collect. There were other major tax
benefits granted exclusively to those investing in Puerto Rico.

The money that investors paid for these bonds has been essentially
"free money" to Puerto Rico, since nobody apparently believed that it
would ever have to be paid back. As a result, Puerto Rico has felt
free to spend huge amounts of money on social programs, with bills
that are finally coming due.

Detroit defaulted on its debt several years ago, but it didn't really
hurt too many people, because the bankrupt debt was $18 billion, and
few ordinary people owned Detroit bonds, as most investors were
institutions that hedged their purchases with credit default swaps.

A Puerto Rican debt default is likely to be much more widespread. The
triple-tax free 10% interest deal has drawn massive amounts of money
from 401k's and other ordinary investment funds. These funds will all
lose significant principal in a Puerto Rico default.

Under US law, Puerto Rico does not have Chapter 9 bankruptcy
protection that Detroit had. A legislative solution would involve a
bankruptcy-like restructuring of Puerto Rico's debt. The Republicans
are generally supporting the bondholders, the people who invested in
the triple-tax free 10% bonds, who are fiercely resisting any
restructuring, claiming that the only reason that they purchased the
bonds in the first place was because the law made such restructuring
impossible. Or if some kind of bailout is authorized, then
Republicans want to impose harsh fiscal discipline on the island.

Democrats generally want to bail out Puerto Rico with few fiscal
constraints. However, such a bailout would permit the government to
resuming borrowing money and spending it, resulting in a continuing
crisis.

One side effect of Puerto Rico's economic crisis is that it's
accelerated the migration of Puerto Ricans to the mainland U.S. If no
legislation is passed by July 1, then Puerto Rico will default on $2
billion in payments due at that time, causing the economy to spiral
further into crisis.

Puerto Rico and Greece have in common that there is no solution to
their respective financial crises. Reuters and Washington Post and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Cemil Bayik,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Puerto Rico, Paul Ryan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Is everyone listening to Trump's foreign policy speech, in progress now?

It will be in the Guinness Book of World Records as the world's
longest list of completely meaningless platitudes supported by utter
nonsense.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 27-Apr-16 World View -- Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violence spreads across Turkey as both Turkey and PKK escalate fight
• Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1

****
**** Violence spreads across Turkey as both Turkey and PKK escalate fight
****


The PKK flag hangs as armed PKK militants man a barricade in southeastern Turkey on November 15 2015 (AFP)

Ever since the cease-fire agreement between Turkey and the separatist
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) broke down last year in July, the
violence on both sides has been escalating. The PKK has conducted
terrorist attacks, while the Turkish military has attacked PKK havens
in southeast Turkey and northeastern Iraq.

In an interview with the BBC, PKK leader Cemil Bayik blamed Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the surge in fighting, promised to
escalate the terrorist attacks on Turkish targets even further:

<QUOTE>"He [President Erdogan] wants the Kurds to
surrender. If they don't surrender, he wants to kill all Kurds. He
says this openly - he doesn't hide it.

The Kurds will defend themselves to the end, so long as this is
the Turkish approach - of course the PKK will escalate the
war. Not only in Kurdistan, but in the rest of Turkey as well."

We don’t want to divide Turkey. We want to live within the borders
of Turkey on our own land freely... The struggle will continue
until the Kurds’ innate rights are accepted."<END QUOTE>

The PKK has been engaged in violence with Turkey's government for
three decades. The PKK and Turkey agreed to a cease-fire and a "peace
process" in 2013, but that broke down abruptly last year following the
July 20 terrorist attack in the city of attack on Suruç
killing 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish
activists. After that, the ceasefire agreement broke down, and
Erdogan declared war on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country"
)

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded to Bayik's interview with the
BBC:

<QUOTE>"Nobody should doubt it. This fight, which we will
carry out until Turkey saves itself from the problem of terrorism,
will continue without rupture. Hopefully, as a result of this
determined fight, Turkey will be saved soon from this terrorism
problem completely.

Unfortunately, the international community cannot give a good
account of itself and a hypocritical attitude is still embraced on
the issue of terrorism. Tents of a brutal terrorist organization
might be erected in European capitals and their rags [flags] might
be displayed."<END QUOTE>

Davutoglu was alluding to a tent set up by PKK supporters in front of
the European Council building, just two days after a major terrorist
attack on Ankara on March 13, as Davutoglu was visiting Brussels. It
was only after the terrorist attack on Brussels on March 22 that
Belgian police ordered the tent to be taken down, but then it was set
up again elsewhere. Turkish officials were furious that PKK
supporters were permitted to publicize their cause just after a
terrorist attack.

The PKK is listed as a terrorist group by the US and the EU. However,
the Kurds are also a major US ally in Iraq and Syria, fighting the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The US
distinguishes between the PKK versus Kurdish militias fighting ISIS,
but Turkey considers all of them to be terrorists, resulting in policy
conflicts with the West.

The new statements by Davutoglu and Bayik suggest that the fighting is
going to escalate.

As we've been saying since 2003,
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war between Arabs and Jews, between Sunnis and Shias, and
between various ethnic groups. It seems now that every week brings
this prediction a major step closer. BBC and Daily Sabah (Ankara)

****
**** Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1
****

It is now all but certain that Puerto Rico will default on a $422
million debt payment due on May 1.

In January, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) promised that legislative
action would be completed by the end of March to resolve Puerto Rico's
problems before the May 1 deadline. However, Ryan has failed to
accomplish this.

Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate
and a shrinking population, all of which threaten to cause its economy
to collapse.

In many ways, Puerto Rico has gotten a free ride from Congress for
years. Congress granted Puerto Rico investments a "triple-tax free"
tax rate. This means that you can invest in Puerto Rico's bonds and
earn 10% interest every year, and not have to pay federal, state or
municipal tax on the interest you collect. There were other major tax
benefits granted exclusively to those investing in Puerto Rico.

The money that investors paid for these bonds has been essentially
"free money" to Puerto Rico, since nobody apparently believed that it
would ever have to be paid back. As a result, Puerto Rico has felt
free to spend huge amounts of money on social programs, with bills
that are finally coming due.

Detroit defaulted on its debt several years ago, but it didn't really
hurt too many people, because the bankrupt debt was $18 billion, and
few ordinary people owned Detroit bonds, as most investors were
institutions that hedged their purchases with credit default swaps.

A Puerto Rican debt default is likely to be much more widespread. The
triple-tax free 10% interest deal has drawn massive amounts of money
from 401k's and other ordinary investment funds. These funds will all
lose significant principal in a Puerto Rico default.

Under US law, Puerto Rico does not have Chapter 9 bankruptcy
protection that Detroit had. A legislative solution would involve a
bankruptcy-like restructuring of Puerto Rico's debt. The Republicans
are generally supporting the bondholders, the people who invested in
the triple-tax free 10% bonds, who are fiercely resisting any
restructuring, claiming that the only reason that they purchased the
bonds in the first place was because the law made such restructuring
impossible. Or if some kind of bailout is authorized, then
Republicans want to impose harsh fiscal discipline on the island.

Democrats generally want to bail out Puerto Rico with few fiscal
constraints. However, such a bailout would permit the government to
resuming borrowing money and spending it, resulting in a continuing
crisis.

One side effect of Puerto Rico's economic crisis is that it's
accelerated the migration of Puerto Ricans to the mainland U.S. If no
legislation is passed by July 1, then Puerto Rico will default on $2
billion in payments due at that time, causing the economy to spiral
further into crisis.

Puerto Rico and Greece have in common that there is no solution to
their respective financial crises. Reuters and Washington Post and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Cemil Bayik,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Puerto Rico, Paul Ryan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

If the Kurds ever hope to gain a more respectable seat at the table with the Turks, their wing in Turkey need to stop being bloodthirsty, Commie Revolutionary bastards. They have zero cred as it now stands.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Is everyone listening to Trump's foreign policy speech, in progress now?

It will be in the Guinness Book of World Records as the world's
longest list of completely meaningless platitudes supported by utter
nonsense.

Trump is outlining the weakness left by the current adminstration. He particularly criticizes the Iran treaty as a humiliation for America. He is also mention advances by Russia, China and North Korea at US expense and how he plans to correct that situation.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Trump is outlining the weakness left by the current adminstration. He particularly criticizes the Iran treaty as a humiliation for America. He is also mention advances by Russia, China and North Korea at US expense and how he plans to correct that situation.

He plans to "correct" the situation with Russia by giving them Europe. Sort of like Hitler giving Stalin half of Poland.

*** 28-Apr-16 World View -- Austria votes to close border with Italy to slow refugees

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Female suicide bomber attacks Bursa in northwestern Turkey
• Austria votes to close border with Italy to slow refugees

****
**** Female suicide bomber attacks Bursa in northwestern Turkey
****


Suicide bomber blew herself up near Bursa's 14th century Ottoman Empire Grand Mosque

A female suicide bomber blew herself up in the Turkish city of Bursa
on Wednesday, wounding 13 people. Reports indicate that the bomber
was a 25 year old woman.

Turkey has been suffering from a string of terrorist attacks on large
cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. The attacks have been
perpetrated both by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) and also by the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

As I reported yesterday,
the PKK
has promised to escalate its war against the government of Turkey.
Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded that "Turkey will be
saved soon from this terrorism problem completely," presumably by
military action against the PKK.

However, as yet, no one has claimed credit for Wednesday's suicide
attack on Bursa.

Bursa was the first capital of the Ottoman Empire.

Today, it's a large commercial city, but still is built around the
mosques, mausoleums and other sites from its incarnation from its
Ottoman ancestry. The bombing took place near Bursa's historic Grand
Mosque, built between 1396-99. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and AFP and Bursa's Grand Mosque

****
**** Austria votes to close border with Italy to slow refugees
****

Austria's Parliament on Wednesday voted a set of harsh regulations to
stem the flow of migrants crossing the border from Italy.

According to the law:

• Austria will build a 370 meter fence on its border with Italy
  at Brenner Pass, the principal route through the Alps mountain range
  where traffic passes between the two countries. Construction on some
  fences has already begun.
  
• There is a fast-track admissibility procedure for asylum seekers.
  Border police will example asylum applications solely for the purposes
  of determining whether individuals can be returned to the neighboring
  country from which they came. Even refugees from Syria can be denied
  asylum. A decision to accept or reject the asylum request can be made
  within an hour. Only people who argue successfully that their lives
  would be in danger or that they face a real risk of torture or inhuman
  or degrading treatment in a neighboring country, or who have a nuclear
  family member already in Austria, will be allowed to formally apply
  for asylum. People can be detained at the border for up to 14
  days.
  
• At any time, the government can declare a six-month "state of
  emergency" if the number of migrants suddenly rises enough to
  "endanger national security." Border authorities will then only grant
  access to refugees facing safety threats in a neighboring transit
  country or whose relatives are already in Austria. Some groups
  including minors and pregnant women will however be exempt from the
  rule.

It's thought that the Parliament passed the law in response to an
overwhelming victory by the far-right Freedom Party in the first round
of Austria's presidential elections on Sunday.

Human Rights Watch is denouncing the new laws as "a blow to the rights
of asylum seekers."

Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi posted a statement saying:

<QUOTE>"The possibility of closing the Brenner Pass is
blatantly against European rules, as well as against history,
against logic and against the future."<END QUOTE>

There are large refugee camps in Greece on the border with Macedonia,
and in Calais, France, near to entrance to the Euro tunnel to Britain.
As migrants enter Italy after crossing the Mediterranean Sea from
Libya, we may eventually see a large camp of migrants on Italy's
border with Austria. The Local (Austria) and Guardian (London) and France 24 and The Local (Italy) and Breitbart News

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bursa, Turkey, Grand Mosque,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Austria, Brenner Pass, Italy, Matteo Renzi

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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

*** 29-Apr-16 World View -- Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens
• Bank of Japan shocks investors with no stimulus, leading to global stock selloff

****
**** Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens
****


Aftermath of Syrian airstrike on Aleppo hospital on Thursday (AP)

The air force of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad appears on Thursday
to have deliberately targeted a hospital in Aleppo with airstrikes,
killing dozens of doctors and children.

According to US Secretary of State John Kerry, "It appears to have
been a deliberate strike on a known medical facility and follows the
Assad regime's appalling record of striking such facilities and first
responders. These strikes have killed hundreds of innocent Syrians."

Destroying a hospital is typical of Bashar al-Assad. This is a man
who gets obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling
out their fingernails, or send missiles into school dormitories to
kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with metal and chemical
weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large
groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to
be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal monster in
today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong and Stalin
from the last century. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor
any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to satisfy his
psychopathy.

The news today is that officials are complaining that the Syria "peace
process" is hanging by a thread, in the words of Staffan de Mistura,
the UN envoy to Syria. But these officials are paid to live in a
fantasy world of denial. As I've written many times, no one seriously
believed that there was any sort of actual peace process going on.
And as I've written many times, any movement to peace is impossible
with al-Assad in power in Syria, because he's determined to keep
dropping barrel bombs with chemical weapons on Sunni civilians until
every Sunni in Syria is exterminated.

The reason that Thursday's airstrike on the Aleppo is significant news
is that its sheer brutality and savageness makes it clear to even
officials in denial that al-Assad has no intention of entering into
any peace agreement.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, al-Assad may be
making a fundamental error, by not understanding the differences
between generational eras.

Syria's last generational crisis war was the civil war that climaxed
in 1982 with the massacre at Hama. There was a massive uprising of
the 400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama against Syria's president
Hafez al-Assad, the current president's father. In February, 1982,
al-Assad turned the town to rubble, 40,000 deaths and 100,000
expelled. Hama stands as a defining moment in the Middle East. It is
regarded as perhaps the single deadliest act by any Arab government
against its own people in the modern Middle East. But once the Hama
was destroyed, the anti-government movement against Hafaz al-Assad
pretty much ended. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
this was a generational crisis war climax, like the nuking of
Hiroshima at the climax of World War II, bringing the war to an end.

Now Bashar al-Assad may believe that he's in a similar situation in
Aleppo. It's quite possible -- even quite likely -- that al-Assad
intends to turn the city of Aleppo to rubble, and then gain a complete
victory, as his father did in 1982.

But that kind of climax with that kind of outcome can occur only in a
generational Crisis era. Today, Syria is in a generational Awakening
era, like America in the 1960s. And in this generational era, the
destruction of Aleppo will bring at most a temporary halt to the
fighting, not the total surrender that al-Assad is delusionally hoping
for. Al Monitor and CNN and United Nations

****
**** Bank of Japan shocks investors with no stimulus, leading to global stock selloff
****

With Japan's economy in a deep slump, most analysts expected the Bank
of Japan (BOJ) to add stimulus to the economy by one form or another
of "printing money" -- by increasing its purchase of bonds
("quantitative easing") or by lowering the interest rate, which is
already negative, to make it even more negative.

Instead, the BOJ announced on Thursday that it would not add any new
stimulus to the economy at all at the present time. This was a shock
to investors, who responded by selling off stocks, causing the Tokyo
Stock Exchange Nikkei index to plummet 3.6%. This triggered a world
wide selloff on Thursday, though generally not as deep as the Nikkei
selloff.

The Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates three months ago, in
what was considered a move of desperation. ( "30-Jan-16 World View -- Japan tries negative interest rates as US economy slows"
) But that move has been ineffective
in promoting economic growth, so the BOJ may have decided that another
stimulus move wouldn't make any difference. Actually, not adding
stimulus did make a difference of a kind that wasn't expected.

Using stimulus over and over to push up the stock market cannot work
forever. By the Law of Diminishing Returns, each new injection of
stimulus will have a smaller effect that then previous injection.

What this illustrates is the dependence in today's world of stock
markets on central banks. No one serious believes any more that the
stock market is meaningfully related to a country's economy. The
stock markets today are being held up by the central banks -- by the
BOJ in Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the
Federal Reserve in America.

The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% in December, and that move is
widely thought to have harmed the US economy. Today, just about the
only stories important to financial media are the debates over whether
the Fed is going to raise rates again, or whether it will reverse the
December increase.

As we reported last week,
the S&P
500 Price/Earnings ratio has rocket above 24, its highest value in
years. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to
the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982,
resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
Bloomberg and ZeroHedge
and Law of Diminishing Returns



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry,
Hama 1982, Hafaz al-Assad, Japan, Bank of Japan,
Law of Diminishing Returns

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*** 30-Apr-16 World View -- Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos
• Papua New Guinea repudiates refugee agreement after Supreme Court Ruling
• North Korea nuclear test expected after three botched missile tests

****
**** Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos
****


Asylum seekers on Manus island detention center (AAP)

A bombshell Supreme Court ruling is invalidating Australia's policy
for dealing with refugees. However, the bombshell was not from
Australia's Supreme Court. It was from the Supreme Court of Papua New
Guinea (PNG). The ruling says that Australia's refugee detention
center on PNG's Manus Island is inhumane, and must be shut down.

In past years, thousands of refugees from Asia have traveled by boat
to Australia, often after paying huge sums to human traffickers,
hoping to resettle there. Australia has dealt with the situation,
starting in 2001, by setting up two "detention centers," one on PNG's
Manus Island and one on Nauru, under agreements reached with both
countries. Australia intercepts the boat people while at sea, and
redirects them to the detention centers.

These two detention centers have been enormously controversial, with
numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse at the
detention centers. The detention centers were shut down in 2007, but
reinstated when the number refugees and asylum seeks surged again into
the thousands.

There is not yet any timetable for the closing of the Manus Island
center, but Australia is just weeks away from a national election.
The entire policy for processing refugees and asylum seekers is now in
chaos and is sure to be a major campaign issue.

Lawyers for 850 asylum seekers held at Manus Island said on Friday
they planned to seek potentially billions of Australian dollars in
compensation. Sydney Morning Herald and Guardian (London) and Reuters

****
**** Papua New Guinea repudiates refugee agreement after Supreme Court Ruling
****

According to a 2013 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between
Australia and PNG:

<QUOTE>"8. Australia may Transfer and Papua New Guinea will
accept Transferees from Australia under this MOU. ...

10. Persons to be transferred to Papua New Guinea are those
persons who:

• have travelled irregularly by sea to Australia; or
• have been intercepted at sea by the Australian authorities in
  the course of trying to reach Australia by irregular means;
  and
• are authorised by Australian law to be transferred to Papua
  New Guinea; and
• have undergone a short health, security and identity check in
  Australia.

11. Papua New Guinea will host a Processing Centre or Processing
Centers in Manus Province and may host other Processing Centers in
Papua New Guinea for the purposes of this MOU."<END QUOTE>

However, the PNG Supreme Court has invalidated the agreement with its
bombshell decision:

<QUOTE>"It was the joint efforts of the Australian and PNG
governments that has seen the asylum seekers brought into PNG and
kept at the Manus Island Processing Centre against their
will. These arrangements were outside the constitutional and legal
framework in PNG. ... The forceful bringing into and detention of
the asylum seekers on MIPC is unconstitutional and is therefore
illegal."<END QUOTE>

Peter Dutton, Australia's Minister for Immigration and Border
Protection, issued a statement saying that it's PNG's problem, not
Australia's:

<QUOTE>"This is a decision of the Supreme Court of Papua New
Guinea. Australia was not a party to the legal proceedings. It
does not alter Australia’s border protection policies – they
remain unchanged. No one who attempts to travel to Australia
illegally by boat will settle in Australia.

The Government will not allow a return to the chaos of the years
of the Rudd-Gillard Labor Governments when regional processing was
initiated to deal with the overwhelming illegal arrivals of more
than 50,000 people. The agreement with Papua New Guinea to
establish the Manus Island RPC was negotiated by the Labor
Government.

Those in the Manus Island Regional Processing Centre found to be
refugees are able to resettle in Papua New Guinea. Those found
not to be refugees should return to their country of origin.
People who have attempted to come illegally by boat and are now in
the Manus facility will not be settled in Australia."<END QUOTE>

However, this announcement by Dutton was unwelcome in PNG, where the
PNG prime minister, Peter O’Neill said, "Respecting this ruling, Papua
New Guinea will immediately ask the Australian government to make
alternative arrangements for the asylum seekers currently held at the
regional processing center." Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Australia Minister for Immigration and Border Protection and
Guardian (London)

****
**** North Korea nuclear test expected after three botched missile tests
****

North Korea on Thursday launched two intermediate range ballistic
missiles, in missile tests that were both apparent failures. They
came two weeks after another botched missile test, launched on April
15, the birthday of North Korean founding father Kim Il-sung.

It's believed that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un rushed the
three missile tests in order to show off regime accomplishments prior
to the Seventh Party Congress, which convenes on May 6.

Because all three missile tests were botched, it's now thought Kim
will order a nuclear test just prior to May 6.

In other news, Kim has ordered a massive crackdown on its people, and
has tightened security along its border with China. The regime also
has been restricting entry into the capital Pyongyang and has ordered
residents not to hold ceremonial occasions such as weddings or
funerals. According to one source:

<QUOTE>"The North has completely blocked its capital and the
border area after declaring a special surveillance period. The
regime is conducting random inspections of houses in Pyongyang and
ordering visitors, including relatives, to immediately return to
their own homes."<END QUOTE>

Security forces are also inspecting factories and institutes, checking
when workers come to and leave work. The harsh new security measures
are apparently intended to combat Kim's anxieties that unexpected
violence could embarrass him prior to the party congress. Joongang (Seoul) and Yonhap (Seoul) and Korea Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Nauru,
Australia, Peter Dutton, Peter O’Neill,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un

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*** 1-May-16 World View -- China makes four demands of Japan to improve relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kenya's huge ivory burning event may endanger elephants further
• China makes four demands of Japan to improve relations

****
**** Kenya's huge ivory burning event may endanger elephants further
****


Pyres of ivory burn in Nairobi National Park in Kenya on Saturday (AP)

Kenya set fire on Saturday to 105 metric tons in 11 separate pyres,
the tusks of nearly 7,000 elephants. This is 5% of the world's entire
stock of ivory. In addition, 1.5 tons of rhino horns were set on
fire. Ivory does not readily burn, but the fires are kept going by
pumping a combination of kerosene and diesel into the pyres. The
fires are expected to burn for several days.

Kenya's entire stock of ivory is being burned. The ivory was mostly
collected from poachers and smugglers who had been responsible for
killing thousands of elephants to obtain the ivory.

The spectacular ivory-burning show was accompanied by speeches full of
wishful thinking by politicians. Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta
said the following before lighting the first pile:

<QUOTE>"Kenya is poor, but Kenya is a rich country with a
heritage given to us by God and we intend to protect it.

I have been told we are making a fundamental mistake in burning
this ivory because we are poor. For us as Kenyans, Ivory is
worthless unless it is on our elephants. ...

Let's do all we can to ensure our elephants are protected. Kenya's
natural heritage can't be sold for money. With effective control
over the movement of ivory, our elephants will be
safe."<END QUOTE>

In case you're wondering how burning 105 tons of ivory is going to
protect Kenya's elephants, it's because burning the ivory
"sends a message" to poachers and smugglers that what they're doing
is wrong and must be stopped.

This is now the fourth such burning that Kenya has held since 1989,
but the poaching has only been increasing. In the 1970s, Africa had
about 1.2 million elephants, but now has 400,000 to 450,000.

According to one report I heard, smugglers are not selling off their
stocks of ivory. Instead, they're obtaining as much ivory as they can
and storing it away, since it will only become more valuable as the
number of elephants dwindles. It's not clear to me that these
smugglers will stop what they're doing because of some "message"
delivered by the burning.

In the excerpt above, Kenyatta said that he's been told that "we are
making a fundamental mistake in burning this ivory." He's referring
what many analysts are saying, that by burning off 5% of the marginal
supply of the world's ivory, the price of ivory is going to skyrocket,
with the result that many more elephants will be killed. In fact,
South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, and other countries with large
government stocks of ivory are holding on to it in the expectation of
selling it at a much higher price.

Many people are saying that instead of burning the ivory, Kenya should
have sold it off and given the money to the people whose villages have
been attacked by wild elephants as compensation. This would have
increased the supply of legal ivory in the world, and would have
reduced the price of ivory, thus making poaching much less lucrative.
The Star (Kenya) and National Geographic

****
**** China makes four demands of Japan to improve relations
****

Japan's foreign minister Fumio Kishida met with China's Premier Li
Keqiang in Beijing on Saturday, with the intention of easing the
enormous hostility between the two countries. The news reports were
ambiguous about the outcome, but they seem to suggest that the meeting
was pretty hostile.

One news report used an interesting phrase, "taking history as a
mirror," that I haven't heard before:

<QUOTE>"Li said China is willing, in the spirit of taking the
history as a mirror and looking into the future, to make joint
efforts with Japan to strengthen political mutual trust and
promote bilateral relations back to the track of normal
development."<END QUOTE>

According to China's Foreign Ministry, China made four demands
of Japan to improve relations between the two countries:

<QUOTE>"1. In the political area, the Japanese side should
stick fast to the four political documents including the
China-Japan Joint Statement, face up to and reflect upon the
history and follow the one-China policy to the letter. No
ambiguity or vacillation is allowed when it comes to this
important political foundation of the bilateral
ties."<END QUOTE>

The four documents refer to the China-Japan Joint Statement inked in
1972, the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1978, the
China-Japan Joint Declaration of 1998, and the joint statement on
advancing strategic and mutually-beneficial relations in a
comprehensive way signed in 2008.

China is still angry that Japan invaded China prior to and during
World War II, using Chinese girls as "comfort women" for the soldiers,
and committing the "Nanjing massacre" on December 13, 1937. The
Chinese are critical of Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe for recently
sending a ritual offering to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. The
Shrine, which honors Japan's war-dead, also enshrines 14 former
Japanese leaders who were responsible Japan's attack on China.

Further, China is demanding that Japan recognize Taiwan as Chinese
territory, not a self-governing nation, as Japan sometimes suggests.

<QUOTE>"2. In terms of its outlook on China, the Japanese
side should translate into concrete actions its consensus with
China, that is, the two countries are each other's cooperative
partners rather than threats. It should have a more positive and
healthy attitude toward the growth of China, and stop spreading or
echoing all kinds of "China threat" or "China economic recession"
theories."<END QUOTE>

China is building a huge offensive military arsenal, preparing to
launch war against, Japan, its neighbors in the South China Sea, and
the United States. But if anyone asks China what they're doing, China
accuses them of being warmongers and making threats. Point #2 demands
that Japan stop complaining about China's massive military buildup and
preparations for war.

<QUOTE>"3. In terms of economic exchange, the Japanese side
should establish the concept of win-win cooperation, discard the
outdated idea that one side cannot do without the other side, or
one side depends more on the other side than the other way
around. Instead, it should enhance equal-footed and pragmatic
cooperation with China in different fields based on mutual
benefit."<END QUOTE>

This is an economic threat. In 2012, China declared economic war on
Japan by terminating shipments of rare earth minerals, needed for
manufacturing of many of Japan's electronic products. Also, Chinese
protesters torched a Panasonic factory and Toyota dealership in China,
looted and ransacked Japanese department stores and supermarkets in
several Chinese cities. China's National Tourism Administration
ordered travel companies to cancel tours to Japan. ( "18-Sep-12 World View -- China declares economic war on Japan, and sends 1,000 boat flotilla"
)

So when China talks about "win-win," it's a veiled threat that Japan
must do as its told, or there may be another economic war.

<QUOTE>"4. In terms of regional and international affairs,
the two sides should respect each other's legitimate interests and
concerns, and have essential communication and coordination in a
timely fashion. The Japanese side should cast aside the
confrontation mentality and work with China to maintain peace,
stability and prosperity of the region."<END QUOTE>

China's message is this: "We want stability and peace. If you do
exactly as you're ordered, then we'll have stability and peace. But
if you don't do as you're ordered, then we'll kill you, and get
stability and peace that way."

Generational Dynamics predicts that China and Japan are rapidly
heading for a generational crisis war, and the time may not be far
off. China Foreign Ministry and AP and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, elephants, ivory,
Japan, Fumio Kishida, China, Li Keqiang, Nanjing massacre, Taiwan

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*** 2-May-16 World View -- Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis
• Muqtada al-Sadr and Iraq's Awakening era

****
**** Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis
****


A demonstrator holds a picture of Moqtada al-Sadr during a demonstration in Baghdad (Reuters)

Iraq's government in Baghdad is facing a major political crisis after
thousands of supporters on Saturday of Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
stormed the highly-secure "Green Zone" of Baghdad, and then moved on
to the Parliament House. The air was festive, according to reports,
as protesters took selfies while sitting in the chairs of the most
hated politicians.

Under al-Sadr's orders, the protesters retreated from the Parliament
House and the Green Zone on Sunday, but did so with a threat that new
protests are planned for Friday. Since the "Arab Spring" began in
2011, the largest demonstrations have occurred as people poured out of
mosques in the early afternoon after Friday prayers.

The Iraq government is under enormous pressure at the present time.
Iraq is fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). There are currently two fronts, in Mosul and Ramadi, and it's
thought that ISIS could easily penetrate Baghdad and other cities.

Iraq is also facing the prospect of bankruptcy. The government to pay
out nearly $4 billion to 7 million people on the public payroll,
including salaries and pensions to the military and to the workers in
the bloated public-sector. But after the plunge in oil prices, from
which Iraq gets more than 90% of its revenue, it's bringing only about
half that amount, $2 billion.

Al-Sadr is accusing the government of prime minister Haider al-Abadi
of massive corruption, and is demanding that the al-Abadi fire all his
ministers and replace them with a technocrat government.

The political system that was put in place after the 2003 Iraq war set
up a quota system, with required numbers of Shias, Sunnis and Kurds.
The result was that government positions were granted based on
patronage, leading to widespread corruption and poor public services.
Al-Abadi has tried to end the quota system, but has met with
overwhelming political resistance.

Al-Sadr is trying to force the issue by ordering his followers to
carry out massive protests, and is threatening to bring down the
entire government if changes are not made quickly.

If that happens, it would signal a major change in Iraq's government,
and would be a generational Awakening era crisis, an event that
settles the generational political conflict by establishing a victory
of the younger generation. The climax of America's 1960s Awakening
era was the 1974 resignation of Richard Nixon, which also signaled the
victory of the generation of kids who grew up after World War II over
the WW II survivor generations. Washington Post and Fox News and Washington Post (5-March)

****
**** Muqtada al-Sadr and Iraq's Awakening era
****

Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr spent many years in hiding from Saddam
Hussein, but after the Iraq war ended, he portrayed himself as an
Iraqi nationalist, transcending the divide between Sunnis and Shia.
His actions have largely been consistent with that role.

I've written about al-Sadr several times in the past, mostly during
the Bush administration. In 2004, in "Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia turn in weapons"
, al-Sadr was
ordering his militias not to stage an anti-American Shia uprising.
The context, throughout the Bush years following the Iraq war, was
that the mainstream media, led by the NY Times and NBC News, were
constantly predicting and promoting a disaster for the American army
in Iraq. In 2004, the mainstream media were predicting a huge
anti-American Shia uprising, but al-Sadr fooled them.

At one point in 2004, I wrote the following:

<QUOTE>"Meanwhile, it's fun to watch how the mindless
Boston Globe reporters cover all this. Tuesday's lead
multi-column page one headline was "Shi'ites' uprising grows."
That was wishful thinking, and by Wednesday the page one Iraq
headline was, "Qaeda arrests called 'lucky' break." Today's
headline is "Young marines frustrated by lack of progress." Each
day's headline seems so moronic that it could never be topped, but
the next day's is even more moronic. I don't know how they manage
to do it."<END QUOTE>

Throughout those years, the mainstream media were predicting an
imminent civil war in Iraq, making one dumb prediction after another,
and always proven wrong.

In 2007, the mainstream media made complete fools out of themselves
over Bush's "surge" announcement, predicting that it would be a
complete disaster, and becoming completely humiliated when it worked.

In April, 2007, I wrote "Iraq's Moqtada al-Sadr says attack Americans, not each other"
. The
word "attack" was an exaggeration by the mainstream media, but as a
Reuter stories pointed out, al-Sadr was calling for peaceful
demonstrations, not violence.

That's essentially what al-Sadr is calling for today, but this time
the demonstrations are targeting the al-Abadi government in Baghdad.

Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war that
climaxed in 1988, giving rise to the current generational Awakening
era, and the generational conflict between the generations of
survivors of that war versus the generations that have grown up after
that war. It's that generational conflict that gives rise to the
political chaos occurring today.

Iraq's previous generational crisis war was the 1920 Great Iraqi
Revolution. That gave rise to political chaos in the 1930s that
looked very similar to the kind of chaos that's occurring today.

I wrote about this history in detail in my April 2007 article,
"Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq", which is well worth reading by those
interested in what's going on in Iraq today. Al-Jazeera(9-March)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Muqtada al-Sadr,
Haider al-Abadi, Richard Nixon, Iran/Iraq war,
Great Iraqi Revolution 1920

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*** 3-May-16 World View -- Laos sides with China in South China Sea dispute

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel to open another truck crossing to the Gaza Strip
• Report: Hamas, Israel and Egypt in alliance fighting ISIS
• Laos sides with China in South China Sea dispute

****
**** Israel to open another truck crossing to the Gaza Strip
****


The Erez crossing (file photo)

Because of the blockade of the Gaza strip by both Israel and Egypt,
most of the food, medicine and other supplies reaching Gaza come
through a single checkpoint, the Kerem Shalom crossing, between Israel
and southeastern Gaza. Some 600-1000 trucks pass through the Kerem
Shalom crossing every day, creating a hazard on some of the local
roads.

Israel announced on Monday that it will open a second crossing to
commercial traffic, through the Erez terminal on Gaza's northeastern
tip. No implementation date has been given, but it's expected that
the traffic will then be split between the two crossings.

Israel has imposed harsh restrictions on the kinds of goods that may
be imported into Gaza. In particular, building materials like lumber,
cement, and iron are restricted because they could be used to build
tunnels and bunkers for use in war against Israel. However, officials
complain that these restrictions prevent Gaza from rebuilding the
homes that were destroyed since the 2014 war. The announcement made
no mention of whether any of these restrictions will be lifted.

The announcement appears to be a goodwill gesture to Hamas. Israel
halted commercial traffic through Erez in 2000, after the Palestinian
intifada began, and only passenger transit has been allowed since.
The decision to reopen the Erez crossing was taken in recognition that
a truce that ended the 2014 war against Hamas is holding. Jerusalem Post and Reuters

****
**** Report: Hamas, Israel and Egypt in alliance fighting ISIS
****

Israel and Egypt have been in alliance for some time to fight Wilayat
Sinai (State of Sinai), Sinai's branch of the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). In the past, Egypt has accused Hamas,
which governs the Gaza Strip, of allowing ISIS militants to use Gaza
as a safe haven, and to allow them to cross into Sinai through
smuggling tunnels. Hamas denies the allegations, saying it has no
sympathies to the ISIS, which branded Hamas as infidels in a video two
years ago.

Now the Washington Post is reporting that Egypt is pressuring Hamas to
control its border and prevent any movement of fighters or couriers
between Gaza and Sinai. Egypt has economic leverage on Hamas, as
Hamas depends on Egypt in part for its economic survival.

Last week, Hamas deployed over 300 fighters to Gaza’s border with
Egypt, to prevent ISIS militants from crossing over the border in
either direction.

Being the generally suspicious person that I am, it's not clear to me
how this will have any effect. If Hamas is providing a safe haven for
ISIS militants and allowing them to cross into Egypt, then Hamas
fighters will just let that continue. In fact, the Hamas fighters
might actually provide cover for ISIS militants to cross back and
forth.

According to Eyad al-Bozom, a Hamas spokesman, "The national security
forces redeployed along the borders with Egypt, and it is part of the
security plan to fully control the borders and the stability of it, as
well as the security of our Egyptian brothers." Washington Post and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Laos sides with China in South China Sea dispute
****

A question that Generational Dynamics seeks to answer is how the
countries of Asia will line up for and against China in the South
China Sea dispute and the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that China had reached[2] a
four-point consensus with Cambodia, Brunei, and Laos about resolving
the South China Sea disputes. In particular, they all acceded to
China's demand that the Association of South East Asian Nations
(ASEAN) not play a part.

It's been clear for some time that Cambodia is firmly in China's camp,
but Vietnam was shocked by the announcement, since they always
consider Laos to be "brothers."

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues to use
belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has
claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines.

Much of China's announcement is just symbolic, since neither Cambodia
nor Laos have made any claims in the South China Sea. Brunei does
have a conflicting claim, but China's announcement does not say that
the three countries accept China's sovereignty. It only says that
they've adopted China's bilateral process for resolving the dispute.

China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and
China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing their claims are groundless and that they
would lose.

However, a court is expected to issue a ruling in the next few weeks.
The Philippines filed a case with the International Tribunal for Law
of the Sea in 2013, challenging China's claims to the entire South
China Sea. China has already reacted angrily to the Philippines'
action filing the case, and if the court ruling goes against China, as
many analysts believe it will, then China is expected to be furious,
and may take further military action. China has repeatedly made it
clear that it will never compromise in the South China Sea, and that
it will take whatever military action is required to support its
annexation of the region. The Diplomat and China Foreign Ministry and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Egypt, Eyad al-Bozom,
Kerem Shalom crossing, Erez crossing, Wilayat Sinai, State of Sinai,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
China, South China Sea, Laos, Brunei, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines,
International Tribunal for Law of the Sea

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 3-May-16 World View -- Laos sides with China in South China Sea dispute

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel to open another truck crossing to the Gaza Strip
• Report: Hamas, Israel and Egypt in alliance fighting ISIS
• Laos sides with China in South China Sea dispute

****
**** Israel to open another truck crossing to the Gaza Strip
****


The Erez crossing (file photo)

Because of the blockade of the Gaza strip by both Israel and Egypt,
most of the food, medicine and other supplies reaching Gaza come
through a single checkpoint, the Kerem Shalom crossing, between Israel
and southeastern Gaza. Some 600-1000 trucks pass through the Kerem
Shalom crossing every day, creating a hazard on some of the local
roads.

Israel announced on Monday that it will open a second crossing to
commercial traffic, through the Erez terminal on Gaza's northeastern
tip. No implementation date has been given, but it's expected that
the traffic will then be split between the two crossings.

Israel has imposed harsh restrictions on the kinds of goods that may
be imported into Gaza. In particular, building materials like lumber,
cement, and iron are restricted because they could be used to build
tunnels and bunkers for use in war against Israel. However, officials
complain that these restrictions prevent Gaza from rebuilding the
homes that were destroyed since the 2014 war. The announcement made
no mention of whether any of these restrictions will be lifted.

The announcement appears to be a goodwill gesture to Hamas. Israel
halted commercial traffic through Erez in 2000, after the Palestinian
intifada began, and only passenger transit has been allowed since.
The decision to reopen the Erez crossing was taken in recognition that
a truce that ended the 2014 war against Hamas is holding. Jerusalem Post and Reuters

****
**** Report: Hamas, Israel and Egypt in alliance fighting ISIS
****

Israel and Egypt have been in alliance for some time to fight Wilayat
Sinai (State of Sinai), Sinai's branch of the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). In the past, Egypt has accused Hamas,
which governs the Gaza Strip, of allowing ISIS militants to use Gaza
as a safe haven, and to allow them to cross into Sinai through
smuggling tunnels. Hamas denies the allegations, saying it has no
sympathies to the ISIS, which branded Hamas as infidels in a video two
years ago.

Now the Washington Post is reporting that Egypt is pressuring Hamas to
control its border and prevent any movement of fighters or couriers
between Gaza and Sinai. Egypt has economic leverage on Hamas, as
Hamas depends on Egypt in part for its economic survival.

Last week, Hamas deployed over 300 fighters to Gaza’s border with
Egypt, to prevent ISIS militants from crossing over the border in
either direction.

Being the generally suspicious person that I am, it's not clear to me
how this will have any effect. If Hamas is providing a safe haven for
ISIS militants and allowing them to cross into Egypt, then Hamas
fighters will just let that continue. In fact, the Hamas fighters
might actually provide cover for ISIS militants to cross back and
forth.

According to Eyad al-Bozom, a Hamas spokesman, "The national security
forces redeployed along the borders with Egypt, and it is part of the
security plan to fully control the borders and the stability of it, as
well as the security of our Egyptian brothers." Washington Post and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Laos sides with China in South China Sea dispute
****

A question that Generational Dynamics seeks to answer is how the
countries of Asia will line up for and against China in the South
China Sea dispute and the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that China had reached[2] a
four-point consensus with Cambodia, Brunei, and Laos about resolving
the South China Sea disputes. In particular, they all acceded to
China's demand that the Association of South East Asian Nations
(ASEAN) not play a part.

It's been clear for some time that Cambodia is firmly in China's camp,
but Vietnam was shocked by the announcement, since they always
consider Laos to be "brothers."

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other countries, and continues to use
belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has
claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically
belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the
Philippines.

Much of China's announcement is just symbolic, since neither Cambodia
nor Laos have made any claims in the South China Sea. Brunei does
have a conflicting claim, but China's announcement does not say that
the three countries accept China's sovereignty. It only says that
they've adopted China's bilateral process for resolving the dispute.

China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and
China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such
matters, apparently knowing their claims are groundless and that they
would lose.

However, a court is expected to issue a ruling in the next few weeks.
The Philippines filed a case with the International Tribunal for Law
of the Sea in 2013, challenging China's claims to the entire South
China Sea. China has already reacted angrily to the Philippines'
action filing the case, and if the court ruling goes against China, as
many analysts believe it will, then China is expected to be furious,
and may take further military action. China has repeatedly made it
clear that it will never compromise in the South China Sea, and that
it will take whatever military action is required to support its
annexation of the region. The Diplomat and China Foreign Ministry and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Egypt, Eyad al-Bozom,
Kerem Shalom crossing, Erez crossing, Wilayat Sinai, State of Sinai,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
China, South China Sea, Laos, Brunei, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines,
International Tribunal for Law of the Sea

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Laos is a Rhineland (in WW2 speak) or a Czechoslovakia/East Germany (Cold War speak). The Mekong Gap / Golden Triangle is like BeNeLux (in WW2 speak) or Fulda (Cold War speak). The PRC have been building autobahns from their heartland to the frontiers of Laos and Burma and now beyond. They now are completing the last legs, allowing tanks, TELs and other rapid mobile forces to stream south ... into the heart of ASEAN. Whereas the Japanese in WW2 did not have effective overland logistics, the PRC learned that harsh lesson and now have created overland megalogistics. We will be shocked and awed. Someday, the PLA will be en masse in Singapore and in Indonesia. The Australians are going to contemplate disaster. This will make what happened to them in WW2 look like child's play.

To all Fourth Turning Forum members:

With the Fourth Turning Forum about to be killed on May 16, I'd like
to invite everyone to join the Generational Dynamics forum.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/index.php

Some people here have already been members for years.

The sub-forum names are similar to the ones here but I'd be happy to
add new sections, or even a "Fourth Turning" sub-forum, if there's a
request. Let me know what you need and I'll try to provide it.

The next issue is transferring threads.

I'm in the process of writing a program that will save an entire
thread from this forum if it's fed the URL of the thread.

Since I haven't been active around the whole forum, except in the
"Generational Dynamics World View" thread, I really don't know which
threads are important to people.

So I'm requesting that you let me know what threads you'd like me to
save. Please provide both the name of the thread and the URL for the
thread, as in this example:

Generational Dynamics World View
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...ics-World-View

Just post a list of the threads that you want saved, and I'll save
them.

I'm not sure yet how I'm going to display them. I have to figure out
the best way I want to do that. There are issues having to do with
attachments and links.

The important thing is that I want to get all the thread data
collected before May 16. That way I'll have all the data, even if I
haven't figured out how to display the pages before May 16.

I'm still really bummed out that this forum is being killed. All we
can do is make the best of a bad situation.

Best wishes to all.

John J. Xenakis
GenerationalDynamics.com

*** 4-May-16 World View -- European Commission expected to recommend visa-free travel for citizens of Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Reader question on Iran and Iraq's Muqtada al-Sadr
• European Commission expected to recommend visa-free travel for citizens of Turkey

****
**** Reader question on Iran and Iraq's Muqtada al-Sadr
****


Muqtada al-Sadr

My recent article "2-May-16 World View -- Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis"
evoked some reader questions, mostly about the
relationship between Muqtada al-Sadr and Iran:

<QUOTE>"Hey John, if you're still reading the comments, I'd
love to have an answer to a layman's question, and I value your
insight. What are the chances that Iraqi Shia al-Sadr is financed
by the Iranian Shia, located in Tehran?<END QUOTE>

This is a very interesting question today (Tuesday), because al-Sadr
has apparently shocked his supporters today by making an unannounced
visit to Tehran. The visit is apparently embarrassing to both Iran
and al-Sadr, since early reports from Iran's media denied that any
such visit was taking place.

There's really no great love for Iran among Iraqi Shias. Recall
Iraq's last generational crisis war. It was the Iran/Iraq war that
climaxed in 1988 with Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons on the
Kurds and the Iranians. It was a war between Iran and Iraq, not
between Sunnis and Shias. Memories of that extremely bloody and
brutal war are still fresh and deeply embedded in the minds of both
Iraqis and Iranians today.

Al-Sadr himself has been carving out a largely nationalist
non-sectarian path, trying to appeal to both Sunnis and Shias in Iraq.
In Saturday's protests, his supporters were vocal about their hatred
for Iran, so it's unlikely that Iran has been providing much support
to al-Sadr.

If Iran has been supporting anyone, it would be the government of
prime minister Haider al-Abadi, who depends on Iran for military
support in fighting ISIS.

But even if Iran is not supporting al-Sadr, Iran undoubtedly has
leverage over al-Sadr. There may also be the involvement of al-Sadr's
"boss", the senior cleric al-Sayyid Ali al-Sistani, born in 1930. He
grew up during Iraq's last generational Awakening era, so he's seen it
all before, and may be acting as a mediator between Iran and the
youthful al-Sadr.

(The political chaos in Iraq's generational Awakening era today is
very similar to the 1930s Awakening era, as I described in my April
2007 article, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq".)

At any rate, it's quite possible that when al-Sadr told his followers
to retreat on Sunday, he was forced to do so by Iran. And he's
visiting Iran today because he's been ordered to.

There may also be a threat of massive violence. Iran, Syria and
Russia all have the policy of meeting peaceful protests with massive
violence, filling the streets with dead bodies and rivers of blood,
bludgeoning, massacring, torturing and mutilating peacefully
protesting women and children, rather than allow anyone to peacefully
protest against the government. Iraq's government didn't do anything
like that on Saturday, but it's possible that Iran is threatening to
use its own Revolutionary Guards military to massacre al-Sadr's
protesters if they protest again.

The situation is that al-Sadr has called for massive protests after
Friday prayers at the end of this week. Iran undoubtedly wants
al-Sadr to call them off. But if al-Sadr calls off the protests after
going to Tehran, then his protesters will be furious, and may become
violent, triggering a violent response. So Friday should be
interesting.

Some analysts are saying that Iraq's current Shia-led government is on
the verge of collapse, because the Shias are fighting among
themselves. According to Kurdish official Muhammad Ahmad, a former
member of Iraq's parliament:

<QUOTE>"There are historically three factors behind Shiite
unity: when they face a common adversary, when they are guided by
their supreme religious leaders, when they are told and directed
by Iran. At the moment their common enemies are not so powerful
and that has left some space for inter-Shiite tensions. I expect
it to become even harsher. ...

[The] Sunnis have been left with no real power. At the moment they
have no land, they have no wide popular support and consequently
their political power is very much weakened. It wouldn’t be all
too wrong to say that the Shiites no longer are intimidated by the
Sunnis or Kurds. That is why the rivalries within the Shiite block
have intensified."<END QUOTE>

So your question was: "Is al-Sadr financed by Iran?" My guess is that
the answer is NO, but al-Sadr is THREATENED by Iran, at a time when
Iraq's entire Shia government is threatened by an existential
political crisis from within. Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Press TV (Tehran) and Rudaw (Iraq, Kurdistan)

****
**** European Commission expected to recommend visa-free travel for citizens of Turkey
****

European media are reporting that the European Commission (EC) will
back visa-free travel for Turkish citizens when they make their
recommendations on Wednesday.

The recommendation would apply to the Schengen Zone, which is a group
of 26 European countries that permit visa-free border crossings among
them. Last year, because of the flood of migrants entering Europe,
some Schengen zone countries imposed border controls under the
"emergency situation" terms of the Schengen rules. However, with the
closing of the "Balkan Route" for migrants, many of these border
controls are being lifted.

If the EC recommendation is adopted, then citizens of Turkey will be
able to travel anywhere within the Schengen zone without a visa. The
UK, Ireland and Cyprus are not in the Schengen zone, so those
countries will continue to impose a visa requirement.

Turkey had demanded that the visa requirement be scrapped as part of
the EU-Turkey deal to handle Europe's migrant crisis. Turkey agreed
to take back migrants who land in Greece, but agreed only on condition
that the EU end the visa requirement by June.

The visa liberalization is extremely controversial in Europe. Turkey
is an enormous country of 75 million people, and many Europeans fear
that there will be a flood of Turkish citizens coming to Europe to
look for work. However, the visa-free agreement will not grant Turks
the right to get a job in Europe.

Germany and France have proposed an emergency brake or “snap back
mechanism” under which it could halt visa-free travel if large numbers
of Turks stay in the EU illegally or if there are a large number of
asylum applications by Turks.

The EC's visa liberalization recommendation still requires approval by
the EU parliament, where it is expected to meet with considerable
opposition. Turkey is required to meet 72 separate conditions by May
4 to earn the visa liberalization.

It's thought that Turkey has met most but not all of the conditions.
The failures are in two areas:

• Freedom of speech is in danger in Turkey, especially after the
  shocking order by Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to
  takeover Turkey's most important opposition media, the Zaman media
  group, publishers of Turkey's largest newspaper Zaman, its English
  language version, Today's Zaman, plus the Cihan News Agency and
  Aksiyon magazine. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
  )
  
• Turkey is practically at war in southeastern Turkey with militias
  from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whom Erdogan describes as
  "terrorists." There have been a string of terrorist attacks across
  Turkey, attributed to both the PKK and the so-called Islamic State (IS
  or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The EU-Turkey deal itself has raised human rights concerns, with
activists claiming that Turkey is not a safe country to return
migrants to.

However, EU officials believe that they have no choice but to approve
the visa liberalization anyway, even if Turkey has not met all 72
requirements, because otherwise Turkey will cancel the migrant deal.
BBC and
Hurriyet (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Muqtada al-Sadr,
Haider al-Abadi, Iran/Iraq war, al-Sayyid Ali al-Sistani,
Muhammad Ahmad, Turkey, Schengen Zone,
Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal


John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 4-May-16 World View -- European Commission expected to recommend visa-free travel for citizens of Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Reader question on Iran and Iraq's Muqtada al-Sadr
• European Commission expected to recommend visa-free travel for citizens of Turkey

****
**** Reader question on Iran and Iraq's Muqtada al-Sadr
****


Muqtada al-Sadr

My recent article "2-May-16 World View -- Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis"
evoked some reader questions, mostly about the
relationship between Muqtada al-Sadr and Iran:

<QUOTE>"Hey John, if you're still reading the comments, I'd
love to have an answer to a layman's question, and I value your
insight. What are the chances that Iraqi Shia al-Sadr is financed
by the Iranian Shia, located in Tehran?<END QUOTE>

This is a very interesting question today (Tuesday), because al-Sadr
has apparently shocked his supporters today by making an unannounced
visit to Tehran. The visit is apparently embarrassing to both Iran
and al-Sadr, since early reports from Iran's media denied that any
such visit was taking place.

There's really no great love for Iran among Iraqi Shias. Recall
Iraq's last generational crisis war. It was the Iran/Iraq war that
climaxed in 1988 with Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons on the
Kurds and the Iranians. It was a war between Iran and Iraq, not
between Sunnis and Shias. Memories of that extremely bloody and
brutal war are still fresh and deeply embedded in the minds of both
Iraqis and Iranians today.

Al-Sadr himself has been carving out a largely nationalist
non-sectarian path, trying to appeal to both Sunnis and Shias in Iraq.
In Saturday's protests, his supporters were vocal about their hatred
for Iran, so it's unlikely that Iran has been providing much support
to al-Sadr.

If Iran has been supporting anyone, it would be the government of
prime minister Haider al-Abadi, who depends on Iran for military
support in fighting ISIS.

But even if Iran is not supporting al-Sadr, Iran undoubtedly has
leverage over al-Sadr. There may also be the involvement of al-Sadr's
"boss", the senior cleric al-Sayyid Ali al-Sistani, born in 1930. He
grew up during Iraq's last generational Awakening era, so he's seen it
all before, and may be acting as a mediator between Iran and the
youthful al-Sadr.

(The political chaos in Iraq's generational Awakening era today is
very similar to the 1930s Awakening era, as I described in my April
2007 article, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq".)

At any rate, it's quite possible that when al-Sadr told his followers
to retreat on Sunday, he was forced to do so by Iran. And he's
visiting Iran today because he's been ordered to.

There may also be a threat of massive violence. Iran, Syria and
Russia all have the policy of meeting peaceful protests with massive
violence, filling the streets with dead bodies and rivers of blood,
bludgeoning, massacring, torturing and mutilating peacefully
protesting women and children, rather than allow anyone to peacefully
protest against the government. Iraq's government didn't do anything
like that on Saturday, but it's possible that Iran is threatening to
use its own Revolutionary Guards military to massacre al-Sadr's
protesters if they protest again.

The situation is that al-Sadr has called for massive protests after
Friday prayers at the end of this week. Iran undoubtedly wants
al-Sadr to call them off. But if al-Sadr calls off the protests after
going to Tehran, then his protesters will be furious, and may become
violent, triggering a violent response. So Friday should be
interesting.

Some analysts are saying that Iraq's current Shia-led government is on
the verge of collapse, because the Shias are fighting among
themselves. According to Kurdish official Muhammad Ahmad, a former
member of Iraq's parliament:

<QUOTE>"There are historically three factors behind Shiite
unity: when they face a common adversary, when they are guided by
their supreme religious leaders, when they are told and directed
by Iran. At the moment their common enemies are not so powerful
and that has left some space for inter-Shiite tensions. I expect
it to become even harsher. ...

[The] Sunnis have been left with no real power. At the moment they
have no land, they have no wide popular support and consequently
their political power is very much weakened. It wouldn’t be all
too wrong to say that the Shiites no longer are intimidated by the
Sunnis or Kurds. That is why the rivalries within the Shiite block
have intensified."<END QUOTE>

So your question was: "Is al-Sadr financed by Iran?" My guess is that
the answer is NO, but al-Sadr is THREATENED by Iran, at a time when
Iraq's entire Shia government is threatened by an existential
political crisis from within. Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Press TV (Tehran) and Rudaw (Iraq, Kurdistan)

****
**** European Commission expected to recommend visa-free travel for citizens of Turkey
****

European media are reporting that the European Commission (EC) will
back visa-free travel for Turkish citizens when they make their
recommendations on Wednesday.

The recommendation would apply to the Schengen Zone, which is a group
of 26 European countries that permit visa-free border crossings among
them. Last year, because of the flood of migrants entering Europe,
some Schengen zone countries imposed border controls under the
"emergency situation" terms of the Schengen rules. However, with the
closing of the "Balkan Route" for migrants, many of these border
controls are being lifted.

If the EC recommendation is adopted, then citizens of Turkey will be
able to travel anywhere within the Schengen zone without a visa. The
UK, Ireland and Cyprus are not in the Schengen zone, so those
countries will continue to impose a visa requirement.

Turkey had demanded that the visa requirement be scrapped as part of
the EU-Turkey deal to handle Europe's migrant crisis. Turkey agreed
to take back migrants who land in Greece, but agreed only on condition
that the EU end the visa requirement by June.

The visa liberalization is extremely controversial in Europe. Turkey
is an enormous country of 75 million people, and many Europeans fear
that there will be a flood of Turkish citizens coming to Europe to
look for work. However, the visa-free agreement will not grant Turks
the right to get a job in Europe.

Germany and France have proposed an emergency brake or “snap back
mechanism” under which it could halt visa-free travel if large numbers
of Turks stay in the EU illegally or if there are a large number of
asylum applications by Turks.

The EC's visa liberalization recommendation still requires approval by
the EU parliament, where it is expected to meet with considerable
opposition. Turkey is required to meet 72 separate conditions by May
4 to earn the visa liberalization.

It's thought that Turkey has met most but not all of the conditions.
The failures are in two areas:

• Freedom of speech is in danger in Turkey, especially after the
  shocking order by Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to
  takeover Turkey's most important opposition media, the Zaman media
  group, publishers of Turkey's largest newspaper Zaman, its English
  language version, Today's Zaman, plus the Cihan News Agency and
  Aksiyon magazine. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
  )
• Turkey is practically at war in southeastern Turkey with militias
  from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whom Erdogan describes as
  "terrorists." There have been a string of terrorist attacks across
  Turkey, attributed to both the PKK and the so-called Islamic State (IS
  or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The EU-Turkey deal itself has raised human rights concerns, with
activists claiming that Turkey is not a safe country to return
migrants to.

However, EU officials believe that they have no choice but to approve
the visa liberalization anyway, even if Turkey has not met all 72
requirements, because otherwise Turkey will cancel the migrant deal.
BBC and
Hurriyet (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Muqtada al-Sadr,
Haider al-Abadi, Iran/Iraq war, al-Sayyid Ali al-Sistani,
Muhammad Ahmad, Turkey, Schengen Zone,
Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Laos has nothing to do with the South China Sea, it is true. And Cambodia, while having South China Sea ports, has no conflicting claims. However, both Laos and Cambodia have much to do with the staging of the PLA to surge into Thailand ... and ... beyond. This time there is no Maginot Line, for what little something like that was ever worth. Not only is there no Maginot Line, there is no NATO force contra Fulda either. There is nearly nothing, other than some implied threat of retaliation by NATO and its Asian allies from afar. Thus the march ... Beijing's surge for the Strait of Malacca ... OVERLAND! .... continues.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Laos has nothing to do with the South China Sea, it is true. And Cambodia, while having South China Sea ports, has no conflicting claims. However, both Laos and Cambodia have much to do with the staging of the PLA to surge into Thailand ... and ... beyond. This time there is no Maginot Line, for what little something like that was ever worth. Not only is there no Maginot Line, there is no NATO force contra Fulda either. There is nearly nothing, other than some implied threat of retaliation by NATO and its Asian allies from afar. Thus the march ... Beijing's surge for the Strait of Malacca ... OVERLAND! .... continues.

Then they'll be at war with India in the Andaman Sea.

*** 5-May-16 World View -- Many in Asia oppose an Obama apology for 1945 nuking of Hiroshima

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain will accept thousands of child refugees from European camps
• European Commission threatens to fine countries that won't accept migrants
• Many in Asia oppose an Obama apology for 1945 nuking of Hiroshima

****
**** Britain will accept thousands of child refugees from European camps
****


Unaccompanied child refugee last year in 'The Jungle' refugee camp in Calais, France (Getty)

Britain's prime minister David Cameron has made a U-turn in
policy, and has announced that the UK will take thousands
of unaccompanied children in refugee camps in the EU.

The UK already takes children from refugee camps in Syria and
surrounding countries, but under the new policy will also take
children who are already in Europe.

Cameron has opposed the change of policy because it would encourage
more families to entrust their children to human traffickers to take
them to Europe. For that reason, Cameron is restricting the policy to
children registered in Greece, Italy or France prior to March 20, the
date of the EU-Turkey refugee deal.

According to Cameron:

<QUOTE>"I am also talking to Save the Children to see what we
can do more, particularly about children who came here before the
EU-Turkey deal was signed.

What I don't want us to do is to take steps that will encourage
people to make this dangerous journey because otherwise our
actions, however well-meaning they will be, could result in more
people dying than more people getting a good life."<END QUOTE>

Local authorities across Britain will be asked to find homes for the
children. The exact number of children was not announced, but it's
assumed to be around 3,000. Each child will cost £50,000 to resettle.
Guardian (London) and Catholic News Service and BBC

****
**** European Commission threatens to fine countries that won't accept migrants
****

The EU-Turkey deal requires Turkey to take back all migrants who
travel from Turkey to Greece and are not given asylum. This applies
to the thousands of migrants who are already in refugee camps in
Greece.

The deal contains a somewhat bizarre "one-for-one" provision that says
that, for each Syrian refugee that Greece returns to Turkey, Turkey
will select a Syrian refugee from its refugee camps and send that
refugee back to the EU. The plan is that these refugees will be
distributed to all 28 EU countries under a quota system.

The EU tried a migrant quota system last year that was supposed to
relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy to other EU countries.
Only about 1,100 refugees were resettled under this plan because of
stiff opposition from Central European countries, including Hungary,
Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania.

So now the European Commission (EC) is faced with implementing a quota
system for the EU-Turkey deal, and their proposal includes a "fairness
mechanism" under which each of the 28 member states would be assigned
a percentage quota of all asylum seekers in the bloc that it would be
expected to handle. The quota would be reflect national population
and wealth.

It's clear that the same Central European countries are going to
oppose the new quota system, and so the EC is going to permit them to
opt out for at least a year, provided that they pay a fine of 250,000
euros ($300,000) for each asylum seeker that they refuse to accept.

"It is blackmailing. It's a dead-end street," according to Hungary's
foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto.

Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said of the proposal:
"I'm still wondering if it's a serious proposal, because it sounds
like an idea announced during the April Fool's Day."

The EC proposals will be voted by the European Parliament in June.
They require a majority vote, which means that they can be enacted
over the opposition of the Central Asian countries. VOA and Reuters

****
**** Many in Asia oppose an Obama apology for 1945 nuking of Hiroshima
****

When US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Hiroshima, Japan, last
month, he attended a commemoration that laid a wreath at the altar of
the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, but specifically refused to
apologize for the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima in 1945.
However, he left unanswered the question of whether President Obama
would apologize when he visits Hiroshima on May 24.

Speculation apparently ended on Monday afternoon when Obama's press
secretary Josh Earnest supposedly told reporters that Obama would not
apologize.

When this report is confirmed, that will be the culmination of a
debate which pits the editorial boards of the Washington Post, the New
York Times, and other mainstream media newspapers, who are demanding
that Obama apologize, versus a broad coalition of officials in Asia
that oppose any such apology.

• China's and North Korea's policies towards Japan are guided by
  the narrative that Japan's actions in WW II were uniquely evil. An
  American apology would blur that narrative, and suggest that
  anti-Japanese forces did awful things too. Furthermore, an apology
  would highlight the fact that, after 70 years, Japan's liberal
  democracy respects human rights, while China and North Korea do
  not.
  
• In South Korea, an American apology would revive divisive issues
  related to collaboration with the Japanese during the colonial period
  prior to WW II.
  
• Japanese conservatives oppose an American apology, because it
  would be politically divisive, and particularly would help the
  domestic left-wing, by strengthening the pacifist argument on the
  futility of the use of force.

An Obama apology would also be politically divisive in the United
states, as it would support the Republican view that Obama is "weak,"
and would aid the nationalist Donald Trump candidacy. Washington Post (10-Apr) and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Nikkei Asia Review

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, Turkey, European Union,
Greece, Italy, France, Hungary, Peter Szijjarto,
Poland, Witold Waszczykowski,
Japan, Hiroshima, John Kerry, Barack Obama, China, North Korea,
South Korea

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*** 6-May-16 World View -- Syria and Russia continue 'Grozny Model,' killing women and children in Aleppo refugee camp

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• With Turkey already in chaos, Erdogan forces PM Davutoglu to resign
• Davutoglu's resignation may complicate the EU-Turkey migrant deal
• Syria and Russia continue 'Grozny Model,' killing women and children in Aleppo refugee camp

****
**** With Turkey already in chaos, Erdogan forces PM Davutoglu to resign
****


Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center) and prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu at a rally earlier this year (AP)

I always thought that Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu was like
Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev is a puppet who
does what Russia's president Vladimir Putin tells him to do,
apparently without question. I've thought that Davutoglu was also a
spineless puppet doing the bidding of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, and a lot of other people have thought the same.

But that apparently isn't true. Davutoglu has apparently vigorously
opposed several of Erdogan's policies. According to reports, there
was a stormy meeting on Wednesday evening between Erdogan and
Davutoglu, leading to Davutoglu's resignation as prime minister and as
leader of the governing AK party.

Davutoglu, a former professor, made it clear that recent events
made it impossible to support Erdogan's policies as a matter of
conscience, although he would remain loyal to Erdogan:

<QUOTE>"My term [as prime minister] was one of success. With
this decision, there is no feeling of unsuccessfulness or regret
over what I have done. I did my job properly and with honor.

The fact that my term lasted far shorter than four years is not a
decision of mine but a necessity. Our party is on the verge of a
new era. This is the time of unity. ...

Especially after six months of the elections in which our party
received 49.5 percent of the votes and the support of 24 million
voters. Why is the AKP’s leader leaving while all three opposition
leaders who lost the elections are still there?” he added.

Well, why have I taken such a decision? Life teaches many things,
but I have my principles that I have never left since my academic
days.

The strongest person in life is the one who can be at peace with
himself,” the prime minister said. “In life, I have never defended
anything I have not believed and I have never taken a step back on
issues I have believed in. I have never negotiated for any post or
position over the values and principles I have. ...

Therefore if friends are important and the objective is important,
then we should all examine ourselves. As a result of my own
examination and consultations with my friends with political
experience, including our president, I have come to the conclusion
that instead of changing colleagues, it’s much better to change
the party chair for the unity of the AK Party. ...

[T]he fate of the AK Party is the fate of Turkey. Whatever will
happen, I will continue my relation with our president [Erdogan]
... until my last breath. The honor of our president is my
honor. His family is my family. No one should dare to initiate new
plots."<END QUOTE>

Under Erdogan, Turkey has been moving in the direction of a
dictatorship.

• Erdogan has proposed a constitutional change that
  would give him, the president, a great deal more power. Davutoglu's
  support of this change has been tepid.
  
• Davutoglu has opposed jailing journalists and the
  government takeover of Zaman Media, the largest opposition media
  company.
  
• Erdogan has appointed a central bank manager who will do
  his bidding -- reduce interest rates to spur growth. Davutoglu
  has opposed this, in order to preserve market confidence in Turkey.
  
• In negotiating with the European Union on the migrant deal,
  Davutoglu has been more conciliatory than Erdogan.

There will be an AK Party congress later in May, where Erdogan is
expected to select a new prime minister who will be much more obedient
and compliant. One possible successor would be Erdogan's son-in-law.

Whatever else happens, Turkey is already is a state of political
chaos. There have been regular terrorist attacks by the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) and by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). The government war against the PKK has led to actual
fistfights in Turkey's parliament. And Russia's boycott of Turkey has
caused economic hardships. Hurriyet (Ankara) and VOA

****
**** Davutoglu's resignation may complicate the EU-Turkey migrant deal
****

It's thought that there's too much at stake for both sides to allow a
political dispute between Erdogan and Davutoglu to endanger the
EU-Turkey migrant deal. Nonetheless, the resignation gives ammunition
to opponents of the deal in both the EU and Turkey to argue that the
deal should be scuttled.

The crux of the deal is the agreement to lift visa restrictions by the
end of June, so that citizens of Turkey can travel freely around the
26 countries in Europe's Schengen Zone without a visa. This is
something that Turkey has wanted for years, as it's enormously popular
with Turkey's citizens, and it was a key demand of Turkey in making
the migrant deal.

However, lifting the visa restrictions is very controversial in some
parts of the EU, and the policy change is expected to face stiff
opposition when the European Parliament votes on it within a few
weeks. Opponents point to the fact that Turkey has not met all the
preconditions for lifting the restrictions, including freedom of the
press and human rights. The resignation of Davutoglu will allow
opponents to say that Turkey is becoming less democratic and more
authoritarian, and therefore doesn't qualify for lifting the visa
restriction.

The same issue about lifting visa restrictions is a thorn in the side
of Erdogan, because it places a number of restraints on Erdogan's
policy changes. The EU can threaten to restore the visa restrictions
at any time if Erdogan becomes too authoritarian, and so the agreement
effectively places restraints on Erdogan's otherwise unrestrained
policies.

Prime minister Davutoglu has offered a cautious counterweight to an
increasingly radical president, who increasingly defines himself
against Western values and goals. By replacing his hand-picked prime
minister with someone still more subservient, Erdogan will get the
power he seeks, unless he's stopped by the chaos that's likely to
follow Davutoglu's resignation. Bloomberg and Euro News and Daily Sabah (Ankara)

****
**** Syria and Russia continue 'Grozny Model,' killing women and children in Aleppo refugee camp
****

At least 30 people were killed on Thursday when warplanes struck
a refugee camp in northern Syria, killing many women and children.
It's believed that the warplanes were from either Russia or
the Syrian regime of president Bashar al-Assad.

The people living in the refugee camp were civilians who had fled the
Russian warplanes bombing Aleppo. As we wrote in February, Russia is
following a policy used against Grozny in the 1990s war against
Chechnya. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'"
)

Under this policy, Russia bombs schools, hospitals and civilian
neighborhoods, in order to create a a refugee crisis, and to empty the
urban residential areas. Once that is achieved, heavy weapons can be
deployed to eradicate the remaining population, entailing widespread
destruction of homes and infrastructure.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has warned that the
policies of Syria and Russia are going to cause a humanitarian
disaster, resulting in a flood of 400,000 refugees pouring into
Turkey. Turkey has tried to set up refugee camps in northern Syria
along the Turkish border, in order to prevent such a flood of
refugees. Russia and Syria have been following the Grozny Model to
eradicate the civilians in Aleppo, and now are bombing the refugee
camps in order to make sure that the refugees pour into Turkey, from
which they may once again flood into the Greece and the European
Union.

The Syrian regime, which practices genocidal war crimes every day with
barrel bombs and chemical weapons, and considers all Sunni Muslims as
terrorist cockroaches to be exterminated, issued a statement saying
that Aleppo has become like the heroic Stalingrad and gave a promise
that "despite the brutality and cruelty of the enemy, and the great
sacrifices and pains, our cities, towns, people and army will not be
satisfied until they defeat the enemy and achieve victory serving the
interests of Syria, the region and the world." VOA and Syria Online

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, Zaman Media,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Europe, Schengen Zone, Greece,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Chechnya, Grozny, Aleppo, Ban Ki-moon

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