*** 7-May-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan threatens EU: 'We'll go our own way, you go yours!'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• London elects Sadiq Khan as mayor, the first Muslim mayor of a major Western city
• Turkey's Erdogan threatens EU: 'We'll go our own way, you go yours!'
• Turkey says it will meet other EU requirements for lifting visa restrictions

****
**** London elects Sadiq Khan as mayor, the first Muslim mayor of a major Western city
****


Katie Holmes promised to run down Regent Street naked if Sadiq Khan won

Sadiq Khan, the 45-year-old son of a bus driver from Pakistan, was
elected mayor of London in an extremely bitter contest against his
main rival, Zac Goldsmith, the son of a billionaire businessman.

Goldsmith was accused of running a divisive and racist campaign for
referring to Khan with such labels as “radical” and “dangerous,” which
were as code for his religion. The tactics may have backfired, as
Khan won overwhelmingly, 57% to 43%.

In a fascinating twist, Goldsmith's sister, Jemima (Gemima) Marcelle
Goldsmith, is a journalist who was married to Imran Khan, whom I've
written about many times. (See "20-Aug-14 World View -- Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest"
)

Imran Khan was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time,
and was once voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by Australia
Magazine Oz. He turned to politics in the 1990s, and has become an
extremely colorful and extremely anti-American politician. Jemima,
who is Zac Goldsmith's sister and Imran Khan's ex-wife, congratulated
the new mayor, describing him as a “great example to young Muslims.”

There's another fascinating twist: Sexy, well-known Daily Mail
columnist Katie Hopkins wrote in her column on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"Vote Zac. Because if you don't, I'll run Regent
Street naked with a sausage up my bum. I’ve even Tweeted as much.
And if that horrifying prospect doesn’t get the Zac vote out,
nothing will."<END QUOTE>

Now that Sadiq Khan has won, Hopkins' office is not returning phone
calls on whether she intends to fulfill her pledge. Daily Mail (London) and LA Times and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan threatens EU: 'We'll go our own way, you go yours!'
****

A furious Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday rejected a
requirement of the EU-Turkey migrant that Turkey bring its anti-terror
laws in line with EU standards, which is required for the lifting of
EU visa restrictions for Turkish citizens.

The fallout from the resignation of Turkey's prime minister Ahmet
Davutoglu, which we reported yesterday,
did not take long to emerge.

It's beginning to be apparent that the EU-Turkey migrant deal was the
last straw that caused president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to force
Davutoglu to resign, after the stormy meeting they had on Wednesday
evening. Davutoglu was Turkey's main negotiator for the deal, and
according to reports, Davutoglu agreed to some things that Erdogan was
opposed to.

As we reported in detail yesterday, the crux of the migrant deal is
turning out to be the requirement that the EU lift visa restrictions
and give citizens of Turkey visa-free travel throughout the 26 names
of Europe's Schengen Zone. There are 72 requirements imposed by the
EU for the visa restriction to be lifted, and Erdogan is apparently
furious that Davutoglu agreed to meet all requirements. Erdogan
believes that Turkey has so much leverage in the deal, because of the
EU's desperation in handling the migrant crisis, the Davutoglu did not
have to concede so much.

Turkey's anti-terrorism laws are so broad that they criminalize almost
any kind of political dissent, and are used to arrest journalists and
academics critical of government policies. They were used as
justification for the seizure of the country's largest newspaper,
Today's Zaman, because it criticized Erdogan's policies. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)

Erdogan on Friday said that the anti-terror laws would not be changed:

<QUOTE>"While Turkey is under attack from terrorist
organizations from all sides, the European Union is telling us to
change the anti-terror law in exchange for the visa deal. You,
the EU, will let PKK terrorists build tents near the EU parliament
in Brussels, provide them opportunities in the name of democracy,
and then tell us you will lift visas if we change our anti-terror
laws. Sorry. We'll go our own way, you go yours."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan was alluding to a tent set up by supporters of the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK) in front of the European Council building, just
two days after a major terrorist attack on Ankara on March 13, as
Davutoglu was visiting Brussels. It was only after the terrorist
attack on Brussels on March 22 that Belgian police ordered the tent to
be taken down, but then it was set up again elsewhere. Turkish
officials were furious that PKK supporters were permitted to publicize
their cause just after a terrorist attack.

Erdogan's has issued a "take it or leave it" ultimatum to the European
Union. He believes, probably correctly, that the EU is so desperate
for the EU-Turkey migrant deal that they'll make this concession, and
possibly other concessions as well, and lift the visa restrictions by
the June deadline. Anadolu News (Turkey) and Irish Times and BBC

****
**** Turkey says it will meet other EU requirements for lifting visa restrictions
****

The European Union has 72 requirements a country must meet in order
for visa restrictions to be lifted, so that citizens can travel freely
around the 26 countries of the Schengen Zone. Almost all of the
requirements have already been met, but five remain:

• Corruption: Turkey must pass measures to prevent corruption,
  in line with recommendations by the EU Council of Europe's Group of
  States against Corruption (GRECO);
  
• Data protection: It must align national legislation on personal
  data protection with EU standards
  
• Europol: An agreement is to be concluded with the continent's law
  enforcement agency
  
• Judicial cooperation: It must work with all EU members on criminal
  matters
  
• Legislation on terrorism: Turkey is also required to bring its
  terror laws in line with European standards

Turkey's EU Minister and Chief Negotiator Volkan Bozkır claims that
much has already been done to fulfill the first four of these
requirements:

<QUOTE>"The readmission agreement will go in effect in
June. The law that will allow judicial cooperation with all EU
member states has recently been approved by Parliament and there
is no problem with that. The data protection law was required to
enhance cooperation with Europol, so it will also be done. We have
also made significant progress implementing the recommendations of
GRECO. Strengthening the data protection authority can be
done. ...

[With regard to the fifth requirement:] The EU wants us to narrow
the scope of the definition [of terrorism]. We already made the
necessary changes to the anti-terrorism law in line with EU
norms. The concept of immediate and obvious danger that threatens
public security was introduced with these changes. However, we
don't have the luxury of making these changes while the intensive
fight against terrorism is ongoing."<END QUOTE>

Bozkır also addressed one of the main concern that many EU officials
have about lifting the visa restrictions for all of Turkey's 70
million citizens: That there will be a flood of asylum seekers from
Turkey looking for jobs in Europe. According to Bozkir, the concern
is irrelevant:

<QUOTE>"There are about 1.5 million migrants who went to
Europe, but nearly no Turkish citizens were among them. There is
no single asylum application from a Turkish citizen. We will
explain this to our European friends and will convince
them."<END QUOTE>

Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, London, Sadiq Khan, Zac Goldsmith,
Jemima (Gemima) Marcelle Goldsmith, Imran Khan, Katie Hopkins,
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Zaman Media, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Europe, Schengen Zone, Greece,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Europe's Group of States against Corruption, GRECO, Europol,
Volkan Bozkir

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*** 8-May-16 World View -- Far right and far left clash in Europe over government policies

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tens of thousands in pro-EU anti-government protest in Warsaw Poland
• Thousands of Berlin protesters chant 'No Islam on German soil'
• Hooded anarchists in Italy turn violent on Austrian border

****
**** Tens of thousands in pro-EU anti-government protest in Warsaw Poland
****


Tens of thousands in anti-government, pro-EU protests in Warsaw, Poland

45,000 or more protesters gathered in Warsaw, Poland, on Saturday for
pro-European Union anti-government demonstrations.

The ruling Law and Justice party came to power in a landslide October
election win, and have severely restricted human rights with reforms
to the constitutional tribunal, public media, civil service and
surveillance laws. These reforms have been criticized by European
Union officials as contrary to EU principles of democracy.

Saturday's protests were the biggest in Poland since 1989 and the fall
of Communism. In recent years, there have been an increasing
number of mass protests in cities across Poland, often with
contradictory objectives, as if people wanted to protest just
for the sake of protesting. The protests are on both
sides of the political spectrum. There have been similar
situations in Hungary, Romania, and the Czech Republic.

In Hungary, the divisions are so deep that, according to one observer,
the two social camps read different newspapers and use completely
different arguments that are oblivious to the perspective of the
opposing side. These divides often cut across families, friendships
and professional circles. Radio Poland and Visegrad Insight

****
**** Thousands of Berlin protesters chant 'No Islam on German soil'
****

Over 1,000 far-right extremists chanted "Merkel must go" and "No Islam
on German soil," and protested the immigration policies of Chancellor
Angela Merkel. However, the anti-Merkel protests drew only a small
fraction of the numbers that the organizers had predicted. A similar
rally in March drew 3,000.

Also, there was a sizeable counter-demonstration of around 4,500
people in support of Merkel. The confrontation between the two sides
was mostly peaceful, with only small outbreaks of violence.

A third rally of about 3,000 people, organized by regional Protestant
churches, was billed as a "stroll for worldly openness and tolerance"
from the Brandenburg Gate to the city's central Gendarmenmarkt square.
Express (London) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Hooded anarchists in Italy turn violent on Austrian border
****

Hundreds of hooded "anarchist" protesters assembled in Italy
on the border with Austria on Saturday and clashed violently with
police during a demonstration against the Austrian government's
plans to erect a fence at the Brenner Crossing between Italy
and Austria, which would block asylum seekers from crossing
from Italy into Austria.

It's estimated that about 30,000 migrants have reached Italy so far
this year, mostly crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya by boat,
and Austrian authorities have expressed the fear that masses of
migrants would try to enter Austria.

Austria's Interior Minister Wolfgang Sobotka has said he believed that
that as many as a million migrants were poised to cross the
Mediterranean from Libya this year. Italy says the figure is likely to
be much lower.

The protest at Brenner Pass turned violent on Saturday, with Italian
police firing teargas at hundreds of protesters throwing stones and
firecrackers. It was the third violent demonstration to take place at
the Brenner Pass in just over a month.

Both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Matteo
Renzi warned that unless the European Union found a common migration
stance, old nationalist ghosts would reawaken. According to
Merkel:

<QUOTE>"Either we defend our external borders and we do it
together or we risk falling back into nationalism. This is not a
challenge for Greece, Germany or Italy, but these are challenges
that have to do with the future of Europe."<END QUOTE>

Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, said on Saturday
that Austria imposing controls on its border with Italy would be a
"political catastrophe" for Europe. Vice News and Washington Post and Reuters and The Local (Austria)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Poland, Warsaw, Law and Justice party,
Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Italy, Austria, Brenner Pass, Wolfgang Sobotka, Matteo Renzi,
Jean-Claude Juncker

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*** 9-May-16 World View -- Workers riot as Greece braces for new austerity measures

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Workers riot as Greece braces for new austerity measures
• After six years of real austerity, Greeks are at wits' end
• Bolivia accuses Chile of setting up military base near border

****
**** Workers riot as Greece braces for new austerity measures
****


Protesters in Greece have hurled petrol bombs at police who responded with tear gas outside the parliament in Athens. (EPA)

Greece's parliament on Sunday voted on a new set of harsh austerity
measures that lending institutions are demanding of Greece in order to
receive new bailout loans and stave off bankruptcy.

Almost 15,000 people turned out in Athens and Thessaloniki to protest
the planned austerity measures. The demonstrations were mostly
peaceful, but a small group of anarchist protesters hurled firebombs,
Molotov cocktails and other projectiles at police in Syntagma Square
in front of Parliament. Police responded with bursts of tear gas to
repel the anarchists.

By Sunday, Greece was in the grip of labor strikes that have paralyzed
public transport across the country, and shut down other public sector
services.

The move to impose the harsh austerity measures is being led by
Greece's far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who performed a
mind-bending U-turn last year. Tsipras was elected early last year by
promising that there would be no more austerity measures. After being
elected, he repeatedly lied and promised reforms with no intention of
implementing them. After months of one crisis after another, Tsipras
final had to agree to implement the harsh austerity measures demanded
by Greece's lenders, because European officials were "holding a knife
at my neck." Kathimerini and AFP

****
**** After six years of real austerity, Greeks are at wits' end
****

Greece has almost been forgotten, after living with six years of
austerity, with 25% unemployment, and having to deal with more than a
million refugees reaching the country, receiving little sympathy and
no help to speak of. That crisis is far from over, with 50,000
migrants still in Greece, many awaiting the outcome of asylum
applications.

A typical story is that of Dimitris, a retired 75-year-old
construction worker who has to live on a measly 406 euros ($463) per
month, and now even that will be cut. He says,

<QUOTE>"I had to help on the farm when I was 5, later I
became a truck driver, then a construction worker, and in my later
years I was a subcontractor in the building industry. I slaved
away my whole life until I had my heart attack. And it was all for
nothing!"<END QUOTE>

If his pension is cut further, Dimitris would be forced to ask for
money from his children - who themselves are barely getting by.

But in fact, the austerity measures being voted are reductions in
pensions and sharp increases in taxes on gasoline, tobacco, cable
television and gambling on Sunday. There may also be an internet tax
and a special levy on bank transactions, and value-added tax is to be
raised to 24%, too. Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini and Scotsman

****
**** Bolivia accuses Chile of setting up military base near border
****

Bolivia's President Evo Morales accused Chile on Sunday of threatening
the Bolivia by establishing a military base 15 km (9 miles) from their
shared border. He added that international norms prohibited
installing military bases less than 50 kilometers (30 miles) from
international borders in order to avoid confrontations.

Chile denied the accusation, and said that no such military base
exists.

Bolivia and Chile are still in disagreement over the outcome of the
War of the Pacific, 1879-83, involving Bolivia, Chile and Peru. As a
result of that war, Chile acquired two provinces that had formerly
belonged to Bolivia and Peru, respectively. the land acquired from
Bolivia was about 120,000 sq km in size, roughly the size of Greece.
In addition, Bolivia lost its coastline, and has been landlocked every
since. Furthermore, the acquired provinces have turned out to have
large copper deposits that have made Chile the world's largest copper
producer.

In 2013, Bolivia took Chile to the International Court of Justice in
The Hague in the dispute that has been extremely bitter for over a
century. Reuters and BBC (24-April-2013) and Library of Congress


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Athens, Thessaloniki,
Alexis Tsipras,
Bolivia, Evo Morales, Chile, War of the Pacific, Peru

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

With regards to europe, British Brime Minister David Cameron has today posted a video on his Facebook page in which several WW2 veterans plea for Britain to remain in the EU. The veterans say that the EU embodies the values Britain fought for in the war.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

With regards to europe, British Brime Minister David Cameron has today posted a video on his Facebook page in which several WW2 veterans plea for Britain to remain in the EU. The veterans say that the EU embodies the values Britain fought for in the war.

Huh? EU = nest of toadies for Euro - Big Banking. PPl ain't playing with a straight deck.
=

*** 10-May-16 World View -- Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement
• Syria: A victim of colonial politics
• Palestine: Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration left a 'savage legacy'
• Lebanon: Survived Sykes-Picot largely intact

****
**** Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement
****


The 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement split the Mideast between Britain and France (Jewish Virtual Library)

Few American have heard of the Sykes-Picot agreement of May, 1916,
although today it's a matter of widespread interest in the Arab world,
and is considered to be a piece of Western treachery that has caused
untold misery in the Arab world for the last century.

This year is the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot agreement, named
after Frenchman Francois Georges-Picot and Briton Mark Sykes. The
secret agreement was reached on May 9, 1916, and signed a week later
by Britain, France and Tsarist Russia on May 15, 1916. The purpose of
the agreement was to split up the remains of the Arab countries after
the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, which had ruled them for centuries.

During the British fight against the Turkish Ottomans, the British had
obtained the help of Arab armies by promising that after the war there
would be a truly independent Syrian state that included Palestine,
Transjordan, and Lebanon. However, that promise was made in the
knowledge that it would be betrayed, because the secret Sykes-Picot
agreement described how the region would be split between France and
Britain as their respective colonies. The betrayal was exposed when
the secret agreement was revealed, and that occurred after the
Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, when Leon Trotsky published the
details of the deal in November 1917.

The next betrayal was the Balfour Declaration by the British in 1917,
promising the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine.

The borders set by Sykes-Picot/Balfour have remained largely intact,
with few exceptions. There was the independence of Sudan from Egypt,
and then the secession of South Sudan. North and South Yemen were
unified, as were the United Arab Emirates (UAE). There were also
changes to the Palestinian territories and Palestine, related to the
establishment of Israel.

But there are many Arabs, especially Palestinians, who blame
Sykes-Picot/Balfour as the source of all their misery. The so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has specifically said that
Sykes-Picot is dead, but other nationalist Arab groups are calling for
its abolition, mostly for local political reasons. The Kurds have
been leading the calls for an end to Sykes-Picot, and the creation of
a Kurdistan state.

In the past two decades, and especially since the "Arab Spring" of
2011, the Arab world has been disintegrating, with wars in Syria,
Libya, Iraq and Yemen. Many Arabs blame todays troubles on the
Sykes-Picot agreement that was signed a century ago.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, to suggest that the
Arab world has disintegrated in the war because of an agreement signed
in 1917 is nonsense. The Mideast has been in an almost constant state
of war for centuries, and no Western agreement could have either
caused or prevented further wars. As I've been writing for years, the
entire Mideast is headed for massive sectarian and ethnic wars, and
those wars are coming about because of powerful generational forces
that no politicians can control.

The Gulf News has done a series of articles on the effects of the
Sykes-Picot agreement on different Mideast countries, and those
articles are summarized in the sections below. Globe and Mail (Canada) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Syria: A victim of colonial politics
****

As the Ottomans were leaving Syria in 1920, the French forces landed
on Syria's coast and started marching toward Damascus, with the
specific objective of taking control of France's share of the
Sykes-Picot agreement. The French crushed the Syrian army, imposed
martial rule, and divided Syria into border-free mini-states. Syria's
borders with the British Mandate Palestine, the newly-created State of
Greater Lebanon, and the newly created emirate of Transjordan were all
set by the French.

Syria declared a republic in 1932, and became independent in 1946,
when it was a co-founder of both the Arab League and the United
Nations.

Egyptian President Jamal Abdul Nasser merged Syria and Egypt in 1958
to form the United Arab Republic (UAR). It lasted only 43 months, and
crashed in September 1961. The UAR was an attempt to reshape the
borders defined by Sykes-Picot, however it failed and the original
borders are still standing. Gulf News (Dubai) and Gulf News

****
**** Palestine: Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration left a 'savage legacy'
****

As the Ottoman armies retried, the British, with the help of their
Arab allies, conquered Palestine and all of Greater Syria. The
British administered Palestine directly until they received a mandate
from the League of Nations that ran from 1923 to 1948. At the same
time, the British favored the Zionist agenda of creating a
protectorate and a government based on "some kind of Council to be
established by the Jews."

This was formulated in 1917 by the Balfour Declaration, issued by
British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour that, "His Majesty’s
government view with favor the establishment in Palestine of a
national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavors
to facilitate the achievement of this object." This is considered by
the Arabs to be a double-cross, a betrayal of well-documented British
promises to seek an Arab government of the territories liberated from
the Ottomans.

In the decades that followed, Jewish colonies and Zionist aspirations
advanced steadily, culminated in the 1948 Naqba ("Catastrophe"), the
creation of the State of Israel, and the bloody crisis war that
evicted more than 700,000 Palestinians from their homes. For Arabs,
and especially Palestinians, this is the savage legacy of the
Sykes-Picot agreement and the Balfour Declaration, causing enormous
suffering and misery to the present day. Gulf News (Dubai) and Gulf News

****
**** Lebanon: Survived Sykes-Picot largely intact
****

Lebanon has existed for thousands of years, home of Christians,
Muslims, Druze, Maronites, and others. Lebanon came out pretty well
in the 1919 Paris Versailles Peace Conference. One reason was
sympathy for Lebanon because during the war, an Ottoman embargo lead
to a famine in which 200,000 died in Mount Lebanon alone. So Lebanon
survived intact, and elected a president in 1926. The French mandate
was terminated with independence in 1943. Gulf News (Dubai)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sykes-Picot Agreement, Francois Georges-Picot, Mark Sykes,
Turkey, Ottoman Empire, Balfour Declaration, Palestine,
Russia, Leon Trotsky, Bolshevik Revolution, Transjordan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Jamal Abdul Nasser, United Arab Republic, UAR,
League of Nations, Naqba, Israel,
Christians, Muslims, Druze, Maronites

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 10-May-16 World View -- Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement
• Syria: A victim of colonial politics
• Palestine: Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration left a 'savage legacy'
• Lebanon: Survived Sykes-Picot largely intact

****
**** Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement
****


The 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement split the Mideast between Britain and France (Jewish Virtual Library)

Few American have heard of the Sykes-Picot agreement of May, 1916,
although today it's a matter of widespread interest in the Arab world,
and is considered to be a piece of Western treachery that has caused
untold misery in the Arab world for the last century.

This year is the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot agreement, named
after Frenchman Francois Georges-Picot and Briton Mark Sykes. The
secret agreement was reached on May 9, 1916, and signed a week later
by Britain, France and Tsarist Russia on May 15, 1916. The purpose of
the agreement was to split up the remains of the Arab countries after
the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, which had ruled them for centuries.

During the British fight against the Turkish Ottomans, the British had
obtained the help of Arab armies by promising that after the war there
would be a truly independent Syrian state that included Palestine,
Transjordan, and Lebanon. However, that promise was made in the
knowledge that it would be betrayed, because the secret Sykes-Picot
agreement described how the region would be split between France and
Britain as their respective colonies. The betrayal was exposed when
the secret agreement was revealed, and that occurred after the
Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, when Leon Trotsky published the
details of the deal in November 1917.

The next betrayal was the Balfour Declaration by the British in 1917,
promising the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine.

The borders set by Sykes-Picot/Balfour have remained largely intact,
with few exceptions. There was the independence of Sudan from Egypt,
and then the secession of South Sudan. North and South Yemen were
unified, as were the United Arab Emirates (UAE). There were also
changes to the Palestinian territories and Palestine, related to the
establishment of Israel.

But there are many Arabs, especially Palestinians, who blame
Sykes-Picot/Balfour as the source of all their misery. The so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has specifically said that
Sykes-Picot is dead, but other nationalist Arab groups are calling for
its abolition, mostly for local political reasons. The Kurds have
been leading the calls for an end to Sykes-Picot, and the creation of
a Kurdistan state.

In the past two decades, and especially since the "Arab Spring" of
2011, the Arab world has been disintegrating, with wars in Syria,
Libya, Iraq and Yemen. Many Arabs blame todays troubles on the
Sykes-Picot agreement that was signed a century ago.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, to suggest that the
Arab world has disintegrated in the war because of an agreement signed
in 1917 is nonsense. The Mideast has been in an almost constant state
of war for centuries, and no Western agreement could have either
caused or prevented further wars. As I've been writing for years, the
entire Mideast is headed for massive sectarian and ethnic wars, and
those wars are coming about because of powerful generational forces
that no politicians can control.

The Gulf News has done a series of articles on the effects of the
Sykes-Picot agreement on different Mideast countries, and those
articles are summarized in the sections below. Globe and Mail (Canada) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Syria: A victim of colonial politics
****

As the Ottomans were leaving Syria in 1920, the French forces landed
on Syria's coast and started marching toward Damascus, with the
specific objective of taking control of France's share of the
Sykes-Picot agreement. The French crushed the Syrian army, imposed
martial rule, and divided Syria into border-free mini-states. Syria's
borders with the British Mandate Palestine, the newly-created State of
Greater Lebanon, and the newly created emirate of Transjordan were all
set by the French.

Syria declared a republic in 1932, and became independent in 1946,
when it was a co-founder of both the Arab League and the United
Nations.

Egyptian President Jamal Abdul Nasser merged Syria and Egypt in 1958
to form the United Arab Republic (UAR). It lasted only 43 months, and
crashed in September 1961. The UAR was an attempt to reshape the
borders defined by Sykes-Picot, however it failed and the original
borders are still standing. Gulf News (Dubai) and Gulf News

****
**** Palestine: Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration left a 'savage legacy'
****

As the Ottoman armies retried, the British, with the help of their
Arab allies, conquered Palestine and all of Greater Syria. The
British administered Palestine directly until they received a mandate
from the League of Nations that ran from 1923 to 1948. At the same
time, the British favored the Zionist agenda of creating a
protectorate and a government based on "some kind of Council to be
established by the Jews."

This was formulated in 1917 by the Balfour Declaration, issued by
British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour that, "His Majesty’s
government view with favor the establishment in Palestine of a
national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavors
to facilitate the achievement of this object." This is considered by
the Arabs to be a double-cross, a betrayal of well-documented British
promises to seek an Arab government of the territories liberated from
the Ottomans.

In the decades that followed, Jewish colonies and Zionist aspirations
advanced steadily, culminated in the 1948 Naqba ("Catastrophe"), the
creation of the State of Israel, and the bloody crisis war that
evicted more than 700,000 Palestinians from their homes. For Arabs,
and especially Palestinians, this is the savage legacy of the
Sykes-Picot agreement and the Balfour Declaration, causing enormous
suffering and misery to the present day. Gulf News (Dubai) and Gulf News

****
**** Lebanon: Survived Sykes-Picot largely intact
****

Lebanon has existed for thousands of years, home of Christians,
Muslims, Druze, Maronites, and others. Lebanon came out pretty well
in the 1919 Paris Versailles Peace Conference. One reason was
sympathy for Lebanon because during the war, an Ottoman embargo lead
to a famine in which 200,000 died in Mount Lebanon alone. So Lebanon
survived intact, and elected a president in 1926. The French mandate
was terminated with independence in 1943. Gulf News (Dubai)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sykes-Picot Agreement, Francois Georges-Picot, Mark Sykes,
Turkey, Ottoman Empire, Balfour Declaration, Palestine,
Russia, Leon Trotsky, Bolshevik Revolution, Transjordan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, Jamal Abdul Nasser, United Arab Republic, UAR,
League of Nations, Naqba, Israel,
Christians, Muslims, Druze, Maronites

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

My understanding is that many so called "Palestinians" (is that even a real ethnicity?) were not so much evicted as fled. There were reports of agitprop radio broadcasts coming from nearby Arab states claiming the Jews were going to round up and slaughter Arabs. It was 100% bullshit and the masses of mostly uneducated barely literate working class Arabs fell for it. It played right into the hands of Arab states wanting to smear newly formed Israel and create a cause for war.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

...the masses of mostly uneducated barely literate working class Arabs fell for it...

-It wasn't just the barely literate who fell for it.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

> My understanding is that many so called "Palestinians" (is that
> even a real ethnicity?) were not so much evicted as fled. There
> were reports of agitprop radio broadcasts coming from nearby Arab
> states claiming the Jews were going to round up and slaughter
> Arabs. It was 100% bullshit and the masses of mostly uneducated
> barely literate working class Arabs fell for it. It played right
> into the hands of Arab states wanting to smear newly formed Israel
> and create a cause for war.

What's the difference between being evicted versus fleeing in the face
of an overwhelming enemy?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What's the difference between being evicted versus fleeing in the face
of an overwhelming enemy?

1) The Israelis weren't exactly an "overwhelming enemy".

2) The fled because they thought they would be butchered. Other than Deir Yasseen, that didn't really happen. As it turns out, you could argue that Palestinian Arabs are still better off than any other Arab population in the Middle East. So, if they'd stayed, they would have been fine.

EDIT: Let's say they were convinced to flee under false pretenses.

Originally Posted by JDG 66

2) The fled because they thought they would be butchered.

Once again, what's the difference between that and being evicted?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Once again, what's the difference between that and being evicted?

Eviction implies that someone (the Israelis) threw them out. The Palestinians cleverly threw themselves out.

If you ditch your apartment and move somewhere else because you heard bad stories about the landlord (or you didn't like him, because he's A JEW), that doesn't mean you were evicted. If the landlord THROWS you out, THAT'S evicted.

Originally Posted by JDG 66

Eviction implies that someone (the Israelis) threw them out. The Palestinians cleverly threw themselves out.

If you ditch your apartment and move somewhere else because you heard bad stories about the landlord (or you didn't like him, because he's A JEW), that doesn't mean you were evicted. If the landlord THROWS you out, THAT'S evicted.

To be fair, there are documented cases where the Palestinians were evicted.

During 1948, the population rose to 50,000 people as Arab refugees fleeing other areas made their way there.^[37] All but 700^[45] to 1,056^[6] were expelled by order of the Israeli high command, and forced to walk 17 km (11 mi) to the Jordanian Arab Legion lines. Estimates of those who died from exhaustion and dehydration vary from a handful to 355.^[46][47] The town was subsequently sacked by the Israeli army.^[48] A disputed claim, advanced by scholars including Ilan Pappé, characterizes this as ethnic cleansing.^[49] The few hundred Arabs who remained in the city were not permitted to live in their own homes.^[50] They were soon outnumbered by the influx of Jewish refugees who moved into the town from August 1948 onwards, most of them refugees from Arab countries.^[6] as a result of which Lydda became a predominantly Jewish town.^[39][51]

*** 11-May-16 World View -- Azerbaijan and Dagestan celebrate culture as Islamist insurgencies grow

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
• Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
• Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers

****
**** Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
****


Flame Towers -- skyscrapers in Baku, Azerbaijan

Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan, will host the Days of Culture of
Dagestan on May 12-13. The event will feature a concert of Dagestani
singers, dancers and musicians, and an exhibition of arts and crafts
entitled "Dagestan: History and Modernity". "Lezginka" Academic Dance
Ensemble, "Khasavyurt" State Dance Ensemble and soloists will perform
in the concert. An assortment of business deals will be signed.

The singing and dancing and jolly atmosphere hides a great deal
of tension that both sides would like to ignore.

Dagestan is not an independent country. It's in the North Caucasus,
and is one of Russia's southern provinces, and opposite its southern
border is Azerbaijan. As with all of Russia's Caucasian provinces,
it's populated mostly by Sunni Muslims, many of whom have gone to
Syria to fight against the Shia/Alawite army of Bashar al-Assad, often
joining the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Although a political border separates Dagestan from Azerbaijan, the
ethnic groups that have lived in the region for centuries don't always
follow the political boundaries. AzerTag (Baku) and Azerbaijan News

****
**** Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
****

Azerbaijan's population is about 80% Shia Muslim, 15% Sunni Muslim and
3% Christian. The government is secular. As I wrote in "7-Dec-2015 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
, Azerbaijan is
in the unfortunate situation that it suffers from both a radical Shia
Islamist insurgency, and also a radical Sunni Islamist insurgency.
The latter is occurring mostly in the north, along the border with
Dagestan, where poverty is extensive corruption is widespread, the
government is increasingly oppressive, and the gap between rich and
poor is growing wider every day.

It's estimated that of 1,500 people from Azerbaijan who have gone to
Syria to fight with ISIS are from Sunni groups in the north, on the
border with Dagestan. As in Russia and Central Asia, Azerbaijan
officials are worried that people who have gone to Syria to join ISIS
will return to their homelands to use their newly acquired terrorist
skills. Jamestown and Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Iran state media)

****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers
****

Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave of Armenian citizens in the midst of
Azerbaijan. Depending on whose side you're on, NK is either
legitimately Armenian territory or else an illegal occupation of
Azerbaijan territory by Armenian forces.

Armenia and Azerbaijan got along pretty well during the days when they
were both part of the Soviet Union, but they fell into a bloody war
after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. By the time that the war
ended in a cease-fire in 1994, the Armenians had annexed several
Azerbaijani regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.

Low-level violence has been almost continuous since then, with each
side typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.

However, early in April the low-level conflict spiraled into the worse
violence since 1994, with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters.
( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)

A new cease-fire was agreed a few days later, with a return to
low-level violence, but no one doubts that the region could
explode once more, affecting the entire region.

Russia claims to be neutral between the two sides, but few doubt that
Russia strongly supports Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has a
Turkic population and is closely allied with Turkey. Thus, an
escalation in war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could quickly
escalate into a war between Russia and Turkey.

The Armenian government has recently approved a draft bill recognizing
the Nagorno-Karabakh region's independence and sent it to the
country's parliament. If it becomes law, it might be considered a
casus belli by Azerbaijan. For that reason, it's thought that
the independence motion is for domestic consumption in Armenia, and
there are no plans to push it forward. Moscow Times and Trend (Baku)
and ArmenPress (Yerevan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Azerbaijan, Baku, Dagestan, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, Turkey

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

To be fair, there are documented cases where the Palestinians were evicted.

-Hmmm... even according to that, most of the Arabs who were expelled weren't citizens; they were people who had already decided to leave from elsewhere (and the sources also include the Encyclopedia of Islam)? Hmmm...

And there was Deir Yasseen. But, I didn't know about Lod. Good catch.

There is more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes...stinian_exodus

In the first decades after the exodus two diametrically opposed schools of analysis could be distinguished...

In the 1980s Israel and United Kingdom opened up part of their archives for investigation by historians. This favored a more critical and factual analysis of the 1948 events. As a result more detailed and comprehensive description of the Palestinian exodus was published, notably Morris' The Birth of the Palestinian Refugee Problem.^[5] Morris distinguishes four waves of refugees, the second, third and fourth of them coinciding with Israeli military offensives, when Arab Palestinians fled the fighting, were frightened away, or were expelled.
A document produced by the Israeli Defence Forces Intelligence Service entitled "The Emigration of the Arabs of Palestine in the Period 1/12/1947 – 1/6/1948" was dated 30 June 1948 and became widely known around 1985.
The document details 11 factors which caused the exodus, and lists them "in order of importance":

1. Direct, hostile Jewish [ Haganah/IDF ] operations against Arab settlements.
2. The effect of our [Haganah/IDF] hostile operations against nearby [Arab] settlements... (... especially the fall of large neighbouring centers).
3. Operation of [Jewish] dissidents [ Irgun Tzvai Leumi and Lohamei Herut Yisrael]
4. Orders and decrees by Arab institutions and gangs [irregulars].
5. Jewish whispering operations [psychological warfare], aimed at frightening away Arab inhabitants.
6. Ultimate expulsion orders [by Jewish forces]
7. Fear of Jewish [retaliatory] response [following] major Arab attack on Jews.
8. The appearance of gangs [irregular Arab forces] and non-local fighters in the vicinity of a village.
9. Fear of Arab invasion and its consequences [mainly near the borders].
10. Isolated Arab villages in purely [predominantly] Jewish areas.
11. Various local factors and general fear of the future...

...the number one and number two point that there was a war on. In any way, the civilians often get out of Dodge when the fighting reaches them. If there had been no war, they probably wouldn't have fled. Three is Deir Yaseen. Four is Arab orders: "Morris estimates that Arab orders accounts for at most 5% of the total exodus"; but Morris also argues: "Most of Palestine's 700,000 "refugees" fled their homes because of the flail of war (and in the expectation that they would shortly return to their homes on the backs of victorious Arab invaders). But it is also true that there were several dozen sites, including Lydda and Ramla, from which Arab communities were expelled by Jewish troops."

...and then the other interpretations.

But mostly, they fled because, well, there was a war on, and they didn't want to be there when the shooting started.

FWIW.

*** 12-May-16 World View -- England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland
• The 'New IRA' recalls the 1916 Easter Rising against British rule

****
**** England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland
****


A New IRA parade commemorating the Easter Rising of 1916 (Barcroft)

England, Scotland and Wales were put on high alert on Wednesday
by possibly imminent threats from the "New IRA" (Irish Republican
Army). According to Home Secretary Theresa May:

<QUOTE>"The Security Service, MI5, has increased the threat
level to Great Britain from Northern Ireland-related terrorism
from moderate to substantial.

This means that a terrorist attack is a strong possibility and
reflects the continuing threat from dissident republican activity.

As a result of this change, we are working closely with the police
and other relevant authorities to ensure appropriate security
measures are in place."<END QUOTE>

The increase in the perceived risk to Great Britain from Northern
Irish terrorism from "moderate" to "substantial" was caused by a fresh
assessment leading to concerns about the increasing capabilities of
the dissident groups and their growing desire to attack the mainland.
With this rating, a terror attack is considered "a strong
possibility," which is not at the level of "highly likely" if the
threat level had been raised all the way up to "severe." BBC and
Belfast Telegraph (30-Apr) and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** The 'New IRA' recalls the 1916 Easter Rising against British rule
****

On Easter Sunday, March 27 of this year, thousands of soldiers marched
through Dublin to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the 1916 Easter
Rising, which was an Irish insurgency against the government of the
United Kingdom. That was just one of the many clashes between the
Irish and the English over the centuries.

Northern Ireland terrorism has been out of the news lately, because of
concerns over jihadist terrorism. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, all religious and ethnic groups have the
potential for terrorism at different times. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, there is little significant difference between
terrorism by Catholic drug cartels in Mexico, ethnic terrorism by
Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland, and Islamist terrorism,
with the similarities more significant than the differences. However,
at this point in time, terrorism related to Syria is considered to be
the greatest terror threat.

Violent paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland has resulted in
1,100 bombings and shootings over the past 10 years, along with almost
800 so-called punishment attacks and 4,000 cases of people being
forced out of their homes. There are still thousands of people
associated with paramilitary groups responsible for acts of violence
and intimidation. Last week, police arrested 14 people in Northern
Ireland after the funeral of of Michael 'Mickey' Barr, a "New IRA"
member who was gunned down for being a dissident republican.

The violence in Northern Ireland is usually portrayed as religious in
nature, where Catholics fight against Protestants.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it can be called
an ethnic conflict between indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually
Catholic, republican, nationalist) versus descendants of invading
English and Scottish people (usually Protestant, loyalist, unionist).
As is often the case, religion is not the "cause" of this conflict,
but is a tool used by the factions to rally supporters.

Generally speaking, the objective of the republicans is to unify the
Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland) with Northern Ireland into a
single republic, while the unionists (loyalists) want Northern Ireland
to remain part of the United Kingdom.

As I described in detail in "23-Jun-2011 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
, the English and the Gaelics have been fighting
generational crisis wars regularly since the 1400s. The most
important was the Nine Years War (1594-1603), where the Irish Gaelics
attempted to overthrow English rule. The result was the Plantation of
Ulster, which Gaelics today refer to as "ethnic cleansing," because
the British drove the Gaelics from their land, took it over as
landlords, and used the Gaelics as servants.

Those feelings are as strong as ever today among the many of the Irish
republicans. That's why, on Easter of this year, the "New IRA"
warned:

<QUOTE>"The volunteer soldiers of the IRA are ready and
determined to take the war to the age old enemy of our
nation."<END QUOTE>

AP and Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London, 29-Mar)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Northern Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales,
New IRA, Irish Republican Army, MI5, Theresa May,
Easter Rising, Catholics, Protestants, Nine Years War,
Ulster Plantation

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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*** 13-May-16 World View -- EU-Turkey migrant deal unravels over brinksmanship on both sides

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU-Turkey migrant deal unravels over brinksmanship on both sides
• More refugees now reaching Europe via Italy than via Greece
• Italy rescues 800 migrants from Mediterranean Sea, many of them from Syria

****
**** EU-Turkey migrant deal unravels over brinksmanship on both sides
****


Italy's coast guard rescued over 800 migrants from the Mediterranean Sea on one day, Thursday (Reuters)

Both Turkey and the European Union are issuing ultimatums.

Turkey is demanding that the EU honor its agreement to allow all
Turkish citizens to have visa-free travel throughout Europe's Schengen
Zone. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and former prime minister Ahmet
Davutoglu have been said repeatedly, since March 20 when the EU-Turkey
migrant deal was signed, that the EU must fulfill its pledge to permit
visa-free travel by Turkish citizens by June, or else Turkey would
cancel the deal and allow floods of migrants to resume flooding across
the Aegean Sea to Greece.

The EU is demanding that Turkey must bring its anti-terrorism laws
into line with European standards. Turkey's anti-terrorism laws are
so broad that they criminalize almost any kind of political dissent,
and are used to arrest journalists and academics critical of
government policies. They were used as justification for the seizure
of the country's largest newspaper, Today's Zaman, because it
criticized Erdogan's policies. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)

Changing the anti-terrorism laws was one of the terms of the agreement
that the European Union negotiated with Turkey's prime minister Ahmet
Davutoglu. There were 72 conditions that Turkey would have to meet
before the visa-free travel could be implemented. Almost all of them
have been met, but the anti-terrorism change has not. Erdogan was
infuriated that Davutoglu made this concession, and fired him last,
saying that Turkey could not and would not change its terrorism laws
while it is being receiving terror attacks from both the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK) and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). ( "7-May-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan threatens EU: 'We'll go our own way, you go yours!'"
)

Turkish officials point out that Turkey is currently hosting the
largest number of Syrian refugees in the world with 2.7 million, and
has spent more than 7 billion euros meeting their needs. Erdogan says
that the EU has a much smaller refugee problem and a much smaller
terrorism problem, and that EU officials are hypocritical for
criticizing Turkey.

With positioning hardening on both sides, people are looking for a
face-saving agreement. Otherwise, the EU-Turkey deal is going to fall
apart. Irish Times and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** More refugees now reaching Europe via Italy than via Greece
****

For the first time since April 2015, more refugees arrived in Italy by
crossing the Mediterranean from Libya than arrived in Greece by
crossing the Aegean Sea from Turkey.

The change wsa mostly due to a slowdown of migrants arriving in Greece
since the EU-Turkey migrant deal.

In March, 26,971 people arrived in Greece, while 9,676 arrived in
Italy.

In April, after the deal 3,462 people arrived in Greece, while 9,149
migrants arrived in Italy.

Migrants arriving in Greece come from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Asylum seekers making their way through the Mediterranean are
primarily from Nigeria, Gambia, Somalia and other Sub-Saharan African
nations. EU Observer and Bloomberg

****
**** Italy rescues 800 migrants from Mediterranean Sea, many of them from Syria
****

There are signs in the last few days that a new wave of refugees from
Syria have shifted traveling through Turkey to Greece via the Aegean
Sea to a new route from Libya to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea.

The Italian coast guard says that it rescued more than 800 migrants
off the coast of Sicily in one day alone, Thursday, and that at least
150 of them were Syrian, and 40 were from Iraq.

Authorities had feared that with the closing of the "Balkan Route" for
refugees crossing the Aegean Sea to Greece, people smugglers would
begin redirecting refugees to Libya, to cross to Italy. Typically,
the people smugglers put hundreds of migrants into a single large
rubber dinghy, and give the migrants enough fuel to leave Libyan
waters and a cell phone to use to call the Italian coast guard.

Fearing a flood of migrants crossing Brenner Pass from Italy to
Austria, Austria is building a fence on the common border. ( "28-Apr-16 World View -- Austria votes to close border with Italy to slow refugees"
) Austria's plan
has received widespread condemnation from human rights groups and many
EU officials. Reuters and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Ahmet Davutoglu, Greece, Aegean Sea,
Austria, Brenner Pass, Italy, Libya, Mediterranean Sea

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 14-May-16 World View -- Syria's Aleppo campaign falters after disastrous Iranian loss at Khan Tuman

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
• Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
• Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse

****
**** Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
****


A neighborhood of Aleppo Syria, after being targeted by Syrian regime airstrikes (AFP)

Thousands of people on Friday attended the funeral in Beirut, Lebanon,
of Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who
was leading Hezbollah's forces in the war in Syria. The death of
Badreddine is a huge embarrassment to the terrorist group Hezbollah
and to Hezbollah's puppetmasters in Iran. Iranian officials
immediately claimed that Badreddine was killed by a "huge blast" in
Damascus, the capital city of Syria, and that the blast was caused by
an Israeli air strike. However, Iran quickly backed down from that
claim, since after all that claim would be even more embarrassing to
Hezbollah and Iran than the truth.

The truth is that Badreddine was killed a week ago while leading
Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Khan Tuman in Iran's disastrous battle
of Aleppo. It's believed that he was killed in battle, although there
are unconfirmed conspiracy claims that either the Syrian regime or
Israel had something to do with his death.

Hezbollah praised the "Martyr Badreddine": In 1982, he formed jihadist
groups to confront the Zionist entity. After becoming commander in
1992, he prepared many heroic operations against the Israeli
occupation. With the inception of Syrian crisis in 2011, the martyr
was one of the first commanders who confronted the takfiri plot across
Syria, according to Hezbollah.

Badreddine's death brings to an end a long manhunt by Israeli and
Western intelligence services for the guerrilla leader who has managed
to remain in the shadows while taking part in assassinations and
military operations. Independent (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (13-May) and Al Manar (Hezbollah)

****
**** Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
****

All last year, until Russia actively entered the war in Syria, we were
reporting that Syria's army was losing one city after another to the
opponents of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. ( "5-Jun-2015 World View -- With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment"
)

A major objective of Russia's entry into the war was the recapture of
Aleppo from opposition forces. For the past few months, there
have been massive forces -- combining forces from Syria's regime army,
Hezbollah, and Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) --
focused on the recapture of Aleppo. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'"
)

On May 6, IRGC forces were caught by surprise by an attack on Khan
Tuman, south of Aleppo, by anti-Assad forces, killing and capturing
about two dozen IRGC fighters, at a time when there was supposed to be
a cease-fire in progress. This is the same battle in which
Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine was
killed.

Former commander of the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, retired general Mohsen
Rezaei, was brought out of retirement, possibly to provide guidance to
the IRGC forces in Aleppo. He said:

<QUOTE>"Some months ago Khan Tuman in south Aleppo was freed,
but a few days ago, takfiris, taking advantage of a cease-fire at
a time neither a plane nor artillery was active, surprise attacked
Syrian forces and Iranian advisers.

[Expressing anger and dismay over the IRGC losses:] Their
martyrdom shall not remain unavenged. We will liberate Aleppo
soon and wipe out the takfiri terrorists."<END QUOTE>

IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani was also dispatched to the region
to provide moral support.

The loss of several dozen IRGC fighters is not a significant loss
militarily, but it has big symbolic significance. It's the first
major setback for the IRGC forces in Aleppo. Other IRGC forces have
suffered losses in other places in Syria, though not at this level.
The strategic logic of Iran’s mission in Syria will likely drive the
IRGC toward greater escalation in response to this setback. The Guard
will want to avenge this defeat, moreover, and re-establish its
credibility in the fight around Aleppo, which remains a strategically
important prize for the Assad regime. Al-Monitor and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (12-May)

****
**** Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse
****

I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable
insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of
view, and sometimes gets things wrong. This week's subscriber-only
newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) contains an analysis of the
battle to recapture Aleppo, and says that it's being stymied because
of conflicting objectives among the three armies -- Russia, Iran and
Syria.

After the loss of Khan Tuman and the deaths of IRGC fighters, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad demanded that Iran send more forces to
Aleppo to defeat the rebels. Iran refused the request, and just sent
IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani to raise the morale of Iranian and
Hezbollah forces, as previously described above.

According to Debka, al-Assad does not want to deploy his own army
forces to Aleppo, because he wants to keep them close by in Damascus
and Latakia to defend his own regime, even if it means losing Aleppo.
This has inevitably infuriated both Iran and Russia, whose troops
wonder why they're fighting someone else's battle. Russia in
particular has no use for al-Assad and would except as a way of
keeping control of Syria.

Russia's forces entered the Syrian war actively last year to save
al-Assad from losing the war. It may be that al-Assad will lose the
war anyway. Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Syria, Aleppo, Khan Tuman, Hezbollah,
Russia, Mohsen Rezaei, Qassem Soleimani

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's socialist economy close to a crash
• Maduro orders jailing of owners of closed factories
• Maduro recalls Brazil ambassador over Dilma Rousseff 'coup'

****
**** Venezuela's socialist economy close to a crash
****


An injured man lies next to national guard members during a demonstration in Caracas, Venezuela on Wednesday (AFP)

Pity the poor Venezuelan citizen who enjoyed years of free Socialist
giveaways under president Hugo Chávez and more recently president
Nicolás Maduro, and now has to pay for it all, as Chávez's Socialist
paradise faces financial disaster.

The inflation rate in 2015 was 275%, the highest in the world,
and it's continued to surge. The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) estimates that it will reach 720% in 2016, and over 2200%
in 2017.

Maduro's government is drenched in corruption, with officials not
giving a s--t about anyone but themselves. Common staples are in
scarce supply, and citizens have to stand in line to get milk, rice,
flour, ketchup, diapers, and toilet paper. Crime and violence are
becoming rampant. And the fall into hell has been rapid -- 75% of
Venezuelan homes now live in poverty, compared to 27% just two years
ago.

New indignities keep getting piled on, one after the other:

• Beer has become unavailable because the country's largest
  brewery shut down for lack of malted barley.
  
• Get this: Despite the highest inflation rate in the world,
  Venezuela can't print any more money because they can't
  pay the printing bill. Oh, the irony.
  
• In order to save power, Maduro ordered that all clocks be
  moved ahead one-half hour.
  
• Also to save energy, Maduro ordered that state employees
  work only two days per week.

Oh, wait. Maduro has found a solution. He's ordered a 30% increase
in the minimum wage. Increasing the minimum wage 30% is sure to cause
even greater super-inflation and even deeper shortages, but logic
never stops a Socialist loon.

Maduro's opposition have collected two million signatures on a
petition to force a recall vote that would remove Maduro from power,
but Maduro has control of the courts and all national agencies. One
of those agencies that Maduro controls is the National Electoral Board
(CNE) which supposed to have certified the signatures a week ago, but
under Maduro's orders they're stalling.

Opposition leader and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles
said on Saturday that if Maduro blocks the recall referendum, then the
country "can explode at any given moment."

Maduro has announced that's calling out the army for military drills
starting on Saturday, to protect the country from "foreign
aggression," meaning the United States. Since the United States has
no plans to invade Venezuela, it's more likely that Maduro will use
the military to attack protestors violently, which is what Socialists
always do to stay in power. Miami Herald and Reuters (11-Apr) and VOA (2-May) and Bloomberg (27-Apr) and VOA (1-May)

****
**** Maduro orders jailing of owners of closed factories
****

As we mentioned above, the country's largest producer of beer has
closed down the last of its four domestic breweries, for lack of the
imported malted barley needed as the principal ingredient. Cerveceria
Polar, the manufacturer, is blaming the problem on Venezuela's
government for not giving the company the dollars it needs to import
supplies.

Venezuelan citizens are only allowed to have inflation-bloated and
increasing worthless currency, the Bolivar. Dollars are tightly
controlled by the government, and have been in particularly short
supply since the price of oil crashed over the last two years.
Cerveceria Polar and other manufacturing firms have been forced to
close their doors because they could import the goods they needed.

Like all good Socialists, president Maduro has a ready solution.

On Friday, Maduro declared a full-scale state of emergency. If a
factory has closed because they were unable to import what they need
to make their products, then Maduro will have the factory seized and
the factory owner jailed.

According to Maduro, the country is facing an "economic war," led by
the United States. BBC and
Fox News and USA Today (8-May)

****
**** Maduro recalls Brazil ambassador over Dilma Rousseff 'coup'
****

Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro recalled his ambassador to
Brazil, Alberto Castelar, following a vote by Brazil's parliament to
suspend president Dilma Rousseff from office and subject her to an
impeachment trial on charges of corruption. The debate in Brazil that
preceded the vote lasted for days, and resulted in wild protests and
fury from both opponents and supporters of Rousseff. Rousseff claims
that the corruption charges are bogus, and many people agree, saying
that Rousseff's real problem is that her left-wing policies have
brought the country to near ruin, though not yet as bad off as
Venezuela.

Maduro claims that the impeachment vote was actually a palace coup
against a democratically elected left-wing government. With Maduro
himself facing a recall petition in Venezuela, he has become an ally
of Rousseff.

There have been a string of coups and attempted coups against mostly
left-wing Latin American leaders in the last decade.

In 2004, there was a coup against Haiti's president Jean-Bertrand
Aristide; in 2008, widespread violence left dozens dead as opposition
groups sought to oust President Evo Morales; in the early hours of
June 28, 2009, the Honduran military kidnapped President Manuel Zelaya
and flew him to Costa Rica; on September 30, 2010, the police and
military kidnapped Ecuador's president Rafael Correa, who eventually
escaped; in June 2012, Peru's left-wing president Fernando Lugo was
impeached and removed from office.

Rousseff is just the latest in this string of "coups." Next in line
is Maduro, unless he completely destroys the democratic process by
ordering the army to use violence against his political enemies.
Reuters and TeleSur TV (Caracas)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez,
Cerveceria Polar, Alberto Castelar, Brazil, Dilma Rousseff

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's socialist economy close to a crash...

• **** Venezuela's socialist economy close to a crash...

An injured man lies next to national guard members during a demonstration in Caracas, Venezuela on Wednesday (AFP)

Pity the poor Venezuelan citizen who enjoyed years of free Socialist
giveaways under president Hugo Chávez and more recently president
Nicolás Maduro, and now has to pay for it all, as Chávez's Socialist
paradise faces financial disaster...

-"The problem with socialists is, that sooner or later, they run out of other peoples' money."

-Widely attributed to the Iron Lady.

*** 16-May-16 World View -- China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations
• Pentagon documents massive China buildup, but omits 'Maritime Militia'

****
**** China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations
****


Chinese vessel in South China Sea (Reuters)

China on Friday accused the Pentagon of "sensationalizing" China's
military buildup in the South China Sea, claiming that China has "the
legitimate right to deploy military facilities on its own islands in
the South China Sea." The problem with this claim is that China is
using its vast military power to annex regions of the South China Sea
that have historically belonged to other countries, including Vietnam
and the Philippines.

China always says that its claims "are indisputable," and this much at
least is a total lie since the claims are very much in dispute, and
are currently being adjudicated by a United Nations international
court in the Hague, which is expected to rule on counterclaims by the
Philippines very soon, possibly by the end of May.

Friday's Pentagon report documents a massive buildup in the size,
sophistication and power of China's military, including the the South
China Sea. The Chinese response is essentially to call the Americans
war-mongers, for documenting China's military buildup, and for freedom
of navigation patrols in the South China Sea.

Statements by Chinese officials include the following:

<QUOTE>"There’s no difference between China’s deployment of
defense facilities on its own territory and the defense
installation by the US in Hawaii. ...

We don’t hope to see militarized close-in reconnaissance by the US
military. Nor do we want to see more missile destroyers or
strategic fighters coming to this region. This is what all sides
need to take for a responsible behavior on demilitarization. ...

The US has increasingly dispatched military vessels and aircraft
to the adjacent waters and airspace of China’s islands in the
South China Sea. It has engaged in highly targeted military
exercises and joint patrols. The US is turning a blind eye to its
own militarization and has made irresponsible accusations about
China. This is a typical double standard. ...

Recent actions by the US have severely damaged mutual trust
between the two sides, and violates the consensus reached by two
sides. We urge the US to take concrete measures to remove
obstacles for healthy development."<END QUOTE>

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."

These freedom of navigation patrols are infuriating the Chinese. In
China's Alice in Wonderland world, freedom of navigation patrols are
the biggest military actions, not building several massive military
bases in the South China Sea on top of artificial islands. Dept. of Defense - China military report and China TV and Defense News

****
**** Pentagon documents massive China buildup, but omits 'Maritime Militia'
****

Friday's Pentagon report documents a massive buildup in the size,
sophistication and power of China's military, in a way that indicates
that the situation has changed in a significant way. In the past,
Americans have soothed themselves by saying that despite China's
buildup, and their obvious preparations for a first strike military
attack on the United States, America's military is still capable of
fending off a pre-emptive Chinese attack.

However, the tone of the report suggests that China's military buildup
is just about at a tipping point, where it could overwhelm American
defense forces. This had to happen sometime, as America's military
has been cutting back and China's has been building up. At some
point, China's military had to surpass America's and the tone of the
report suggests that that time is now or very soon.

Here are some highlights:

• In the South China Sea, China added more than 3,200 acres in
  artificial islands, used for military bases. China's Cost Guard has
  acquired more than 100 new, improved long-range ocean-going patrol
  ships, many capable of embarking helicopters.
  
• China's navy has been on a building binge, with quality improving
  even faster than quantity. China's navy "now possesses the largest
  number of vessels in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships,
  submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft, [many of them] larger,
  multi-mission ships equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and
  anti-submarine weapons and sensors. Submarine force modernization
  remains a leading priority."
  
• China's air force "is the largest air force in Asia and the third
  largest in the world, with more than 2,800 total aircraft (not
  including UAVs) and 2,100 combat aircraft (including fighters,
  bombers, fighter-attack and attack aircraft)," rapidly closing the gap
  vis-à-vis Western counterparts "across a broad spectrum of
  capabilities from aircraft and command-and-control (C2) to jammers,
  electronic warfare (EW), and datalinks."
  
• China's PLA Rocket Force has an extensive inventory of
  sub-strategic nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles—notably
  including 75-100 ICBMs, and is "developing and testing several new
  classes and variants of offensive missiles, including a hypersonic
  glide vehicle."
  
• In space, China launched 19 rockets bearing 45 spacecraft in 2015
  alone. Chinese counter-space capabilities under development include
  directed energy weapons, satellite jammers, and kinetic kill
  vehicles.

However, the Pentagon reports omits discussion of a major portion of
China's naval military capabilities: The "Maritime Militia." This is
a secret force of fishing vessels that patrol the South China Sea and
act as a guerrilla force under civilian cover, occupying and helping
to build disputed islands. National Interest and Reuters and Australian Broadcasting and International Business Times (Singapore)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Pentagon, South China Sea,
Vietnam, Philippines, Maritime Militia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe