10

There is an obvious and well-known nation-shaping Crisis period: from World War 1 to the formation of Turkey as a modern nation. This roughly-20 year period lasted from 1918 to 1923 (with some bleed-over time before and after). In a "Crisis" period we would expect to see a generational constellation of Prophets-Nomads-Heroes-Artists, with Heroes being mostly in their early 20s (e.g. young soldiers). The "Hero" generation of the Crisis would have been born between 1880 and 1899--and the Hero of the Modern Turkish Republic, Ataturk, was indeed born in 1881. Thus, giving a little wiggle room, we'll say the "Hero" generation of this crisis was 1880-99 for this initial draft, knowing that it might actually be an 1870-89 period instead.


Working back/forward from this, we can see the following potential generational turnings:


1898-1917: Unraveling
1918-1922: Crisis
1923-1945: High (going from the start of the Republic to the first Multiparty election)
1945-1960: Awakening (using a roughly 20-year period to the first Coup)
1960-1980: Unraveling (covers the coup periods in a "nice 20 year period")
1980-2002: Crisis? Was this a "mild winter"? Brings us to the formation of the AK Party.
2002-2020: High: old problems resolved, new institutions emerge.
2020-2040: Next likely "Awakening" and questioning of values
2040-2060: Next likely "Unraveling"
2060-2080: Next likely "Crisis"


Using this model, let's explore the potential generations:


Hero (1880-99): represented by Ataturk. A young generation which achieves great things young and then goes on to lead the nation powerfully. (=GI in USA)
Artist (1900-1919): grows up in the shadow of the Heroes, tasked with building out the institutions. Often very quiet as a generation.
Prophet (1920-1939): grows up indulged in relative peace and security, able to begin questioning the values of what is being built. (=Boomers)
Nomad (1940-1959): while the Prophets are off moralizing, nomads grow up alienated, become often hard and practical, leads to economic surge (=GenX)
Hero (1960-1979): Prophet crusades and Nomad culture wars lead to an unraveling that is heading toward a Crisis. Heroes grow up protected by Nomads.
Artists (1980-1999): The cycle begins to repeat.
Prophet (2000-2019).


Can we see justification for this? I would appreciate insights that you might have. In the meantime, let me offer a few thoughts on each of the foregoing periods:


1898-1917: Unraveling - the end of the Ottoman Empire.
1918-1922: Crisis - this seems rather obvious, bookended by WW1 and the War for Independence, with the formation of Turkey in 1923.
1923-1945: The formation of Turkey, Ataturk's reforms, the buildup of the nation, are also obvious as a "High" period.


1946-1960 as an Awakening:
"This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists and spiritualists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural poverty."
1. Numerous new parties were being established, with varying ideas about how Turkey should move forward.
2. The Democratic Party came to power in 1950. Menderes came to power as the Prime Minister. There were notable differences between this government and the Kemalist period.
3. Menderes always said that he was "discovered" by Ataturk. Interestingly, Menderes was born in 1899--making him squarely in the Artist generation behind Ataturk.
4. While the Kemalist period had limited religious influence, the Menderes government loosened restrictions. He campaigned on the promise to re-legalize the Arabic-language call to prayer, and re-opened thousands of mosques across the country. He was blamed by political opponents for using religion as a tool for political gain.
5. There were conflicts & lack of trust between the DP and the army.
6. The government was intolerant of criticism and used censorship and the arrests of journalists [which implies there was significant criticism in the time]
7. Young radicals increasingly feared the Ataturk ideals were in danger [implying cultural conflict]
8. In awakenings we typically see a decline in the birth rate, which we see in Turkey during this period.


1960-1980 as an Unraveling:
"The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which teach the lesson that society must coalesce and build. Unravelings follow Awakenings, which teach the lesson that society must atomize and enjoy."
1. This report clearly shows polarization between different sides in Turkey and a desire on some in the middle to avoid the arguments.
2. There were multiple coups during this period.
2a. 1970s: "mounting violence between ultranationalists and communists in the streets." 5,000 killed.
3. A lot of Turks left Turkey and went to Europe.
4. There was a massive economic growth period.
5. During this period that the modern missionary movement and Turkish church flourished.
6. Increasing paranoia and security fears.
7. National Salvation Party, Erbakan: close cooperation and unity among Muslim countries.


(A perhaps better date for the Unraveling would be 1960-1974, and the Crisis as 1974-2002?).


1980-2001 as a Crisis:
"This is an era in which institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group"
1. Began perhaps with the economic crisis of '74-80. January 1980 saw IMF reforms, currency devaluation, and restructuring. 1990s recession.
2. 1999 the Kocaeli earthquake rocked not only Turkey but the confidence of Turks in their government.
3. 2001 Banking Crisis: $6 billion left Turkey in 10 days in November.
4. Malatya Murders, shadow conspiracies, "soft coups," attempted government takeovers.


2002: Crisis resolution with the rise of the AK Party.
"This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the conformity."
1. “The AKP came to power in 2002 in the wake of a profound economic crisis. Voters at that election set out to punish a whole post-Cold War generation of politicians who had failed the country badly.”
2. “Had the tenacity to implement economic recovery programme… Chronic inflation and double-digit interest rates became a thing of the past. People were better off and more optimistic about their future.”
1. Ergenekon trials and "the state has broken the back of the military."
2. Turkey views itself as or desiring to be a strong regional leader.
3. "I believe in the New Turkey"


Given this pattern, we would likely see the next Awakening in Turkey somewhere around 2020. In the meantime, the State will enjoy a "High"--but as the High blends into the Awakening there will very likely be increasing institutional strength, quashing of dissent, reforms (that may very well could lead to increased strength for Islam, just as they did in the last Awakening), restrictions, etc.


Here are some examples of the Generations:
Hero (1880-99): represented by Ataturk.
Artist (1900-1919): PM Menderes.
Prophet (1920-1939): Erbakan, Ecevit.
Nomad (1940-1959): Erdogan. If so, interesting because he's the first Nomad leader of Turkey and signals clearly the Crisis is over and the High has begun.
Hero (1960-1979): ?
Artists (1980-1999): ?
Prophet (2000-2019).

Originally Posted by justindlong

10

There is an obvious and well-known nation-shaping Crisis period: from World War 1 to the formation of Turkey as a modern nation. This roughly-20 year period lasted from 1918 to 1923 (with some bleed-over time before and after). In a "Crisis" period we would expect to see a generational constellation of Prophets-Nomads-Heroes-Artists, with Heroes being mostly in their early 20s (e.g. young soldiers). The "Hero" generation of the Crisis would have been born between 1880 and 1899--and the Hero of the Modern Turkish Republic, Ataturk, was indeed born in 1881. Thus, giving a little wiggle room, we'll say the "Hero" generation of this crisis was 1880-99 for this initial draft, knowing that it might actually be an 1870-89 period instead.


Working back/forward from this, we can see the following potential generational turnings:


1898-1917: Unraveling
1918-1922: Crisis
1923-1945: High (going from the start of the Republic to the first Multiparty election)
1945-1960: Awakening (using a roughly 20-year period to the first Coup)
1960-1980: Unraveling (covers the coup periods in a "nice 20 year period")
1980-2002: Crisis? Was this a "mild winter"? Brings us to the formation of the AK Party.
2002-2020: High: old problems resolved, new institutions emerge.
2020-2040: Next likely "Awakening" and questioning of values
2040-2060: Next likely "Unraveling"
2060-2080: Next likely "Crisis"


Using this model, let's explore the potential generations:


Hero (1880-99): represented by Ataturk. A young generation which achieves great things young and then goes on to lead the nation powerfully. (=GI in USA)
Artist (1900-1919): grows up in the shadow of the Heroes, tasked with building out the institutions. Often very quiet as a generation.
Prophet (1920-1939): grows up indulged in relative peace and security, able to begin questioning the values of what is being built. (=Boomers)
Nomad (1940-1959): while the Prophets are off moralizing, nomads grow up alienated, become often hard and practical, leads to economic surge (=GenX)
Hero (1960-1979): Prophet crusades and Nomad culture wars lead to an unraveling that is heading toward a Crisis. Heroes grow up protected by Nomads.
Artists (1980-1999): The cycle begins to repeat.
Prophet (2000-2019).


Can we see justification for this? I would appreciate insights that you might have. In the meantime, let me offer a few thoughts on each of the foregoing periods:


1898-1917: Unraveling - the end of the Ottoman Empire.
1918-1922: Crisis - this seems rather obvious, bookended by WW1 and the War for Independence, with the formation of Turkey in 1923.
1923-1945: The formation of Turkey, Ataturk's reforms, the buildup of the nation, are also obvious as a "High" period.


1946-1960 as an Awakening:
"This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists and spiritualists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural poverty."
1. Numerous new parties were being established, with varying ideas about how Turkey should move forward.
2. The Democratic Party came to power in 1950. Menderes came to power as the Prime Minister. There were notable differences between this government and the Kemalist period.
3. Menderes always said that he was "discovered" by Ataturk. Interestingly, Menderes was born in 1899--making him squarely in the Artist generation behind Ataturk.
4. While the Kemalist period had limited religious influence, the Menderes government loosened restrictions. He campaigned on the promise to re-legalize the Arabic-language call to prayer, and re-opened thousands of mosques across the country. He was blamed by political opponents for using religion as a tool for political gain.
5. There were conflicts & lack of trust between the DP and the army.
6. The government was intolerant of criticism and used censorship and the arrests of journalists [which implies there was significant criticism in the time]
7. Young radicals increasingly feared the Ataturk ideals were in danger [implying cultural conflict]
8. In awakenings we typically see a decline in the birth rate, which we see in Turkey during this period.


1960-1980 as an Unraveling:
"The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which teach the lesson that society must coalesce and build. Unravelings follow Awakenings, which teach the lesson that society must atomize and enjoy."
1. This report clearly shows polarization between different sides in Turkey and a desire on some in the middle to avoid the arguments.
2. There were multiple coups during this period.
2a. 1970s: "mounting violence between ultranationalists and communists in the streets." 5,000 killed.
3. A lot of Turks left Turkey and went to Europe.
4. There was a massive economic growth period.
5. During this period that the modern missionary movement and Turkish church flourished.
6. Increasing paranoia and security fears.
7. National Salvation Party, Erbakan: close cooperation and unity among Muslim countries.


(A perhaps better date for the Unraveling would be 1960-1974, and the Crisis as 1974-2002?).


1980-2001 as a Crisis:
"This is an era in which institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group"
1. Began perhaps with the economic crisis of '74-80. January 1980 saw IMF reforms, currency devaluation, and restructuring. 1990s recession.
2. 1999 the Kocaeli earthquake rocked not only Turkey but the confidence of Turks in their government.
3. 2001 Banking Crisis: $6 billion left Turkey in 10 days in November.
4. Malatya Murders, shadow conspiracies, "soft coups," attempted government takeovers.


2002: Crisis resolution with the rise of the AK Party.
"This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the conformity."
1. “The AKP came to power in 2002 in the wake of a profound economic crisis. Voters at that election set out to punish a whole post-Cold War generation of politicians who had failed the country badly.”
2. “Had the tenacity to implement economic recovery programme… Chronic inflation and double-digit interest rates became a thing of the past. People were better off and more optimistic about their future.”
1. Ergenekon trials and "the state has broken the back of the military."
2. Turkey views itself as or desiring to be a strong regional leader.
3. "I believe in the New Turkey"


Given this pattern, we would likely see the next Awakening in Turkey somewhere around 2020. In the meantime, the State will enjoy a "High"--but as the High blends into the Awakening there will very likely be increasing institutional strength, quashing of dissent, reforms (that may very well could lead to increased strength for Islam, just as they did in the last Awakening), restrictions, etc.


Here are some examples of the Generations:
Hero (1880-99): represented by Ataturk.
Artist (1900-1919): PM Menderes.
Prophet (1920-1939): Erbakan, Ecevit.
Nomad (1940-1959): Erdogan. If so, interesting because he's the first Nomad leader of Turkey and signals clearly the Crisis is over and the High has begun.
Hero (1960-1979): ?
Artists (1980-1999): ?
Prophet (2000-2019).

1918 - 1922 is not a 20 year period for a Crisis... it's a 4 year period.

Also, what about Tansu Ciller? She was born in 1946 and was PM of the Turkish government from 1993 - 1996. She would count as a Nomad leader for you before Erdogan (1953)--as would Ahmet Necdet Sezer (1941), and Abdullah Gul (1950) according to your dates.

~Chas'88

Turkey is part of the Middle East, indeed it ruled large sections of it until the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The Middle East (including North Africa and all the way west to Afghanistan) in my observation shares the same saeculum.

After Neil Howe observed that the mystical militants were somewhat younger in the middle east than in the western world. I decided to study Middle Eastern history and figure out their saeculum.

Throughout the whole middle east after the Iranian revolution in the 1980's and 1990's, clearly in my opinion an Awakening occurred. During this awakening the secular orders which the previous Hero generation had established was challenged by the Young Prophets who subscribed to fundamentalism Islam. In this period Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, Hamas and Hezbollah really came into prominence.

Even Turkey has been affected by the rise of Islamism and Islamist groups have won elections in Turkey. Although a military coup overthrow the first Islamist government elected back in the 1990's and more recently. This would reflect a culture war going on in Turkey and indeed the whole middle east at the moment.

Right now the Middle East is in the middle of an unravelling and the as I can see the whole “Arab Spring” has been an unravelling event. This event was triggered by Prophets and Nomads losing faith in their society's institutions and deciding they want to overthrow the system. However lacking the attributes that a Hero generation has, this has predictably have led to the events we have seen. Much a similar parallel can be seen with what happened after World War One in Germany and the Russian revolution. In both cases it led to either internal conflict or even civil war.

If you can understand the generational dynamics in a particular society you can understand why certain events happen. So I have not found the way the Arab Spring has turned out, not to be too surprising.

The crisis was a typo, it should be 1908-1923. I think Turkey is clearly in the midst of a High right now; the last crisis was sparked by the economic devastation of 1974-80, the coup in 1980 (in which half a million people were arrested), the post-modern coup of 1997, the Kocaeli earthquake of '99, the corruption revelations of 2001 and the wholesale sacking of the government, giving rise to the AK Party and its focus on institutions, economic recovery, and a strong image of Turkish identity. The Ergenekon trials seem to me to be fairly typical of High hubris. Note that Turkey itself has not had an Arab Spring at all, and Islamism is not "awakening" there; religion is a political card to play, not a fundamentalist ideology.

Originally Posted by justindlong

The crisis was a typo, it should be 1908-1923. I think Turkey is clearly in the midst of a High right now; the last crisis was sparked by the economic devastation of 1974-80, the coup in 1980 (in which half a million people were arrested), the post-modern coup of 1997, the Kocaeli earthquake of '99, the corruption revelations of 2001 and the wholesale sacking of the government, giving rise to the AK Party and its focus on institutions, economic recovery, and a strong image of Turkish identity. The Ergenekon trials seem to me to be fairly typical of High hubris. Note that Turkey itself has not had an Arab Spring at all, and Islamism is not "awakening" there; religion is a political card to play, not a fundamentalist ideology.

IIRC, it was once suggested that the new Turkish order was a sign of a country that had gone through a 4T without a crises war.
Accounting for the role of religion in a secular state seems to be a major issue for the Turks.
That may well be. I onc heard a quote that Turkey was a country with one eye focused on europe and the other eye focused on Mecca.
The countries going through the Arab spring may well be dealing with this at some point.

It seems to me that the coup of 1980 (after the immense social unrest of the 1970s--one eyewitness says "it was on the verge of civil war"), plus all that happened thereafter through 2001, was clearly a 4th Turning, nation-defining crisis.

The current mode seems to be "religion is all right as long as it behaves itself."