US Senate -- approval of incumbents, where available.



Approval polls only.




Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange -- Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.

Tan -- incumbent Senator credibly running for another office. Approval and party (D, R) shown


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

What I see so far with incumbents:

App Rep Dem

<40 5 0
40-44 1 0
45-49 1 2
50-54 3 0
55-59 0 0
>60 0 2
retire 1 3
indict 0 1
oth off 2 0
no poll 9 2

... Senator Rand Paul is no longer running for the Presidency.

If those maps are correct and considering last year's election it look like Iowa is getting to take the culture war trip all the way to North Mississippi, i.e. Wisconsin like statistics. Oh well, it was a nice state while it lasted.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

If those maps are correct and considering last year's election it look like Iowa is getting to take the culture war trip all the way to North Mississippi, i.e. Wisconsin like statistics. Oh well, it was a nice state while it lasted.

Iowa has a reasonably-popular Republican incumbent who can win elections until he dies. Wisconsin and Illinois have extremely-unpopular and vulnerable incumbents.

If only Bernie Sanders were a Scandinavian Lutheran with blond hair and blue eyes from Minnesota - and was born in, say, 1958 (!) instead of 1941.

If only ...

I'm not sure that Sanders is too old. I think Biden may be. They are the same age, but age is relative. Sanders has a lot of Aries activist energy; he is the happy warrior. He has a lot of motivation to fight for his causes. Biden just wants to be president. That makes a lot of difference.

Whether the millies will come through for the liberal cause, is yet to be determined. Their record is mixed to say the least. They probably put Obama over the top in 2008 and 2012, but failed to give him the congress he needed. They lack the basic civic skill to realize that midterms count just as much as presidential elections. The demonstrated in the streets in 2011, but refused to translate this into political activism. They can be inspired by Boomers or Jonesers, but many display a lot of skepticism about "conventional" "boomer" liberal politics and therefore lack commitment to them. They are culturally liberal and racially diverse, which favors Democrats. They can also be motivated by the economic and ecological issues, since they affect them. I suspect they are liberal and civic enough that by 2020 and 2024, when they are overwhelmingly dominant in the electorate, their influence will be liberal enough to sweep out the old fogeys. Just what that will mean in politics is not clear though. They may sweep out the GOP, or they may sweep out both the Democrats AND the GOP. My crystal ball says that things will really start moving toward reform in 2021, and maybe toward revolution of some kind in 2025. Until then, hold your breath, count your blessings, and enjoy the respite. In the 2020s the ride is going to get bumpy.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

If only Bernie Sanders were a Scandinavian Lutheran with blond hair and blue eyes from Minnesota - and was born in, say, 1958 (!) instead of 1941.

If only ...

If over half of American voters could twice vote for a man with a black African father, they can just as easily vote for someone Jewish in origin.

Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tial_race.html
is slightly Republican leaning and does not exclude partisan polls. But it is pretty thorough in its cross-section of polls.

It takes a running average of recent polls.

As of today Oct 2 the latest averages posted, nationally:
Clinton 46.6, Trump 43.
Clinton 45.2, Bush 44.7
Carson 46, Clinton 45
Clinton 46.3, Rubio 44
Clinton 46.4, Fiorina 44
Biden 51, Trump 40.3
Biden 48, Bush 41.6
Sanders 45.3, Trump 41.3
Bush 44.3, Sanders 43.7
Clinton 49, Cruz 41.3
Clinton 46.5, Kasich 39
Clinton 49, Huckabee 41.5
Clinton 48, Christie 39
Clinton 46.5, Paul 42.5

Some state polls:
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton FL Chamber Trump 41, Clinton 42 Clinton +1
Florida: Bush vs. Clinton FL Chamber Bush 48, Clinton 37 Bush +11
Florida: Bush vs. Clinton vs. Trump FL Chamber Clinton 35, Bush 32, Trump 21 Clinton +3
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton Marquette Clinton 50, Trump 36 Clinton +14
Wisconsin: Bush vs. Clinton Marquette Clinton 51, Bush 38 Clinton +13
Wisconsin: Rubio vs. Clinton Marquette Clinton 48, Rubio 40 Clinton +8
Texas: Trump vs. Clinton Texas Lyceum Trump 39, Clinton 37 Trump +2
Texas: Bush vs. Clinton Texas Lyceum Bush 35, Clinton 27 Bush +8
Texas: Rubio vs. Clinton Texas Lyceum Clinton 34, Rubio 27 Clinton +7
Texas: Cruz vs. Clinton Texas Lyceum Cruz 39, Clinton 32 Cruz +7
Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 42, Trump 42 Tie
Michigan: Bush vs. Clinton FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 42, Bush 37 Clinton +5
Michigan: Rubio vs. Clinton FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 40, Rubio 43 Rubio +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 42, Trump 47 Trump +5
North Carolina: Bush vs. Clinton PPP (D) Bush 46, Clinton 41 Bush +5
North Carolina: Fiorina vs. Clinton PPP (D) Fiorina 48, Clinton 41 Fiorina +7
North Carolina: Carson vs. Clinton PPP (D) Carson 51, Clinton 41 Carson +10
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Clinton PPP (D) Rubio 50, Clinton 40 Rubio +10
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton Elon University Clinton 47, Trump 40 Clinton +7
North Carolina: Bush vs. Clinton Elon University Bush 46, Clinton 43 Bush +3
North Carolina: Carson vs. Clinton Elon University Carson 52, Clinton 41 Carson +11
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/WMUR Clinton 50, Trump 42 Clinton +8
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden CNN/WMUR Biden 56, Trump 37 Biden +19
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/WMUR Sanders 57, Trump 37 Sanders +20
Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton MRG Clinton 43, Trump 40 Clinton +3
Michigan: Bush vs. Clinton MRG Clinton 39, Bush 40 Bush +1
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Trump 48, Clinton 42 Trump +6
Florida: Bush vs. Clinton PPP (D) Bush 45, Clinton 42 Bush +3
Florida: Carson vs. Clinton PPP (D) Carson 49, Clinton 40 Carson +9
Florida: Rubio vs. Clinton PPP (D) Rubio 48, Clinton 43 Rubio +5
Florida: Fiorina vs. Clinton PPP (D) Fiorina 46, Clinton 41 Fiorina +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 47, Biden 43 Trump +4
Florida: Bush vs. Biden PPP (D) Bush 45, Biden 42 Bush +3
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Trump 47, Sanders 41 Trump +6
Florida: Bush vs. Sanders PPP (D) Bush 45, Sanders 41 Bush +4

Real Clear Politics polls for nominations:

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 41, Sanders 23, Biden 20, Webb 0, O'Malley 0, Chafee 1 Clinton +18

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Gravis Trump 29, Carson 16, Cruz 8, Fiorina 11, Bush 6, Rubio 8, Kasich 4, Graham 2, Huckabee 3, Walker, Paul 1, Christie 1, Jindal 0, Perry Trump +13

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Gravis Clinton 50, Biden 19, Sanders 13, Webb 0, Chafee 1, O'Malley 0 Clinton +31

Florida Republican Presidential Primary FL Chamber Trump 25, Bush 13, Carson 9, Rubio 14, Fiorina 11, Cruz 6, Kasich 4, Huckabee 2, Christie 3, Walker 2, Paul 2, Jindal 0, Santorum 0, Graham 0 Trump +11

Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary Marquette Trump 20, Carson 16, Rubio 14, Fiorina 11, Bush 7, Cruz 5, Paul 5, Kasich 3, Huckabee 3, Christie 3, Jindal 1, Santorum 1, Graham 0, Walker, Perry Trump +4

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary Marquette Clinton 42, Sanders 30, Biden 17, O'Malley 1, Webb 0, Chafee 0 Clinton +12

Texas Republican Presidential Primary Texas Lyceum Trump 21, Cruz 16, Carson 12, Bush 10, Fiorina 6, Rubio 3, Huckabee 2, Kasich 1, Paul 1, Jindal 1, Santorum 1, Perry 1 Trump +5

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary Texas Lyceum Clinton 36, Sanders 24, Biden 15, Webb 2, O'Malley 0, Chafee 0 Clinton +12

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination USAT/Suffolk Trump 23, Carson 13, Fiorina 13, Rubio 9, Bush 8, Cruz 6, Kasich 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Paul 2, Jindal 1, Santorum 0, Walker, Pataki 0, Graham 1 Trump +10

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 35, Biden 28, Sanders 22, Chafee, O'Malley, Webb Clinton +7

Georgia Republican Presidential Primary WSB/Landmark Trump 31, Carson 18, Bush 8, Fiorina 13, Cruz 8, Rubio 9, Huckabee 4, Kasich 2, Paul 1, Christie, Jindal, Graham, Walker, Perry Trump +13

North Carolina Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Trump 26, Carson 21, Fiorina 12, Rubio 10, Cruz 9, Bush 5, Huckabee 6, Kasich 4, Christie 2, Santorum 1, Paul 0, Jindal 1, Graham 0, Walker, Perry Trump +5

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D) Clinton 37, Biden 30, Sanders 17, Webb 3, Chafee 2, O'Malley 1, Lessig 0 Clinton +7

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination NBC/WSJ Trump 21, Carson 20, Fiorina 11, Rubio 11, Bush 7, Cruz 5, Kasich 6, Huckabee 2, Christie 3, Paul 3, Jindal 1, Santorum 1, Walker, Pataki 0, Graham 0 Trump +1

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination NBC/WSJ Clinton 42, Sanders 35, Biden 17, Webb 1, O'Malley 0, Chafee 0 Clinton +7

North Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Elon University Trump 22, Carson 21, Fiorina 10, Rubio 7, Cruz 6, Bush 7, Huckabee 4, Kasich 2, Christie 2, Santorum 1, Paul 2, Jindal 0, Graham 0, Walker 2, Perry Trump +1

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Elon University Clinton 53, Biden, Sanders 23, Webb 2, Chafee 1, O'Malley 0, Lessig 1 Clinton +30

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary CNN/WMUR Sanders 46, Clinton 30, Biden 14, O'Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 0 Sanders +16

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary CNN/WMUR Trump 26, Carson 8, Fiorina 16, Kasich 7, Bush 7, Cruz 5, Rubio 9, Paul 3, Christie 5, Walker 0, Graham 1, Huckabee 0, Pataki 0, Santorum 0, Jindal 0 Trump +10

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination Bloomberg Trump 21, Carson 16, Fiorina 11, Rubio 8, Bush 13, Cruz 5, Kasich 4, Huckabee 3, Christie 4, Paul 2, Jindal 1, Santorum 1, Walker 1, Pataki 0, Graham 0 Trump +5

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Trump 25, Carson 17, Fiorina 12, Rubio 9, Bush 10, Cruz 7, Kasich 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 2, Paul 1, Jindal 0, Santorum 0, Walker, Pataki 1, Graham 0 Trump +8

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Clinton 43, Sanders 25, Biden 18, Webb 0, O'Malley 0, Chafee 0 Clinton +18

Florida Republican Presidential Primary Jacksonville University Trump 24, Bush 17, Carson 15, Rubio 15, Fiorina 16, Cruz 4, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Christie 1, Walker 1, Paul 1, Jindal 0, Santorum 0, Graham 0 Trump +7

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination FOX News Trump 26, Carson 18, Fiorina 9, Rubio 9, Bush 7, Cruz 8, Kasich 4, Huckabee 3, Christie 5, Paul 2, Jindal 0, Santorum 0, Walker, Pataki 1, Graham 0 Trump +8

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination FOX News Clinton 44, Sanders 30, Biden 18, Webb 1, O'Malley 2, Chafee 0 Clinton +14

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Bloomberg Clinton 33, Sanders 24, Biden 25, Webb 2, O'Malley 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +8

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus PPP (D) Trump 24, Carson 17, Cruz 8, Fiorina 13, Rubio 8, Bush 6, Huckabee 6, Walker 5, Paul 4, Kasich 2, Jindal 4, Santorum 1, Christie 1, Perry, Graham 0 Trump +7

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus PPP (D) Clinton 43, Sanders 22, Biden 17, O'Malley 3, Webb 3, Chafee 2 Clinton +21

I saw a new bumper sticker today. Yes, a new one, one that was not weathered or worn, and on a new pickup truck.

It said: NIXON/AGNEW

At first it didn't impact. Then I started to laugh! It is SO funny on SO many levels! Sometimes I envy people who are that creative!

MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

(first the two pols with credible campaigns who have some experience in elected politics -- I have no match-ups involving Mike Huckabee yet)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Now those involving those with no experience in elected office:


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)





Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

It looks as if Joe Biden would do about as well as Hillary Clinton did before the disclosure of the e-mail 'scandal' that seems to have been resolved except in the right-wing media.

Bernie Sanders apparently does not to so well.

Handicapping this race is going to be fascinating. It's a lot less straightforward than most recent presidential elections.

Will Bernie Sanders be viewed as someone to vote for as a potential president? Or is he viewed as someone in the race just to spread a message about economic and social equality?

He has always been willing to speak out from the left-wing perspective when most other senators are not. He is able to articulate his views very well. Does that translate into a potential leader of the "free world" in peoples' minds, the way Barack Obama could?

If Biden runs, that will mainly take votes away from Hillary; thus opening a route for Sanders to win. He may already be in a position to win the CA primary.

The cycles and cosmic indicators are always key and important to look at. From that point of view, the Democrats have the advantage from the new moon indicator before the election. And Sanders has a personal chart advantage over any other candidate. I don't recall a single instance when someone was elected president of the USA against both indicators.

The only candidate historically who had a better score in his horoscope (on my scoring system based on research on who got elected) than Sanders (10-0) was Jimmy Carter (13-0). But he faced a strong headwind in 1980. Not only was his 59th birthday-year Saturn Return due in the coming term (this almost always indicates defeat or retirement), but the new moon indicator was against him, and his opponent also had a strong score (Reagan: 14-4). And the 20-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction indicated a change in direction in US politics in 1980. Needless to say, the core Boomer candidates have all passed their Saturn Return. That only affects people in their late 50s.

Already Sanders is leading in early polls against most Republican challengers (I should say sometimes he does). This might seem surprising, but compared to most of them, Sanders is the moderate. He trumps Trump, for example. Carson may have a slight lead on him now, but he is so far to the right that he too would be seen as more extreme than Sanders, and so would Fiorina and even Rubio. Jeb Bush is the one who both has a good score, and would probably be seen as a more stable and moderate leader than Sanders. He would likely pose the strongest challenge to the Democrats. But Sanders is leading him too in early polls, because people cringe at another Bush in the White House, and it's not only because of his name, but because his policies seem almost identical to his brother's. And Sanders has a better score for getting elected than even Jeb Bush, although Bush might have a better score for governing.

Sanders has some good indicators of the ability to govern well in his chart, however. But mainly what shows up is his ability to articulate an idealistic message. He is well-organized and a good strategic planner. He does have a legislative record, despite usually advocating proposals that can't get passed. So presumably his presidency would have a similar record. Some people worry about his age, but his Mars-Moon conjunction in Aries gives him tireless energy, and it is smoothed out by good aspects to Venus and Jupiter. He is the happy warrior.

It does appear that a one-term president will be elected in 2016. Given the age of the likely Democratic prospects, this may well imply a voluntary decision to retire after one-term. The Democrats are indicated to win again with a new candidate in 2020. It will depend on the quality of the candidates too, of course. And whoever is elected will bring about a change in direction in US politics in the 2020s.

Looks like most of the people who like Trump are just edgy teenage reactionaries who are not even old enough to vote.

LOL!

Originally Posted by Odin

Looks like most of the people who like Trump are just edgy teenage reactionaries who are not even old enough to vote.

LOL!

Not that I trust any poll this early on, but that is pretty funny.

The Democratic debate is here:
https://youtu.be/z4e7lHJhYPg
part 1; other parts on the right to click

Hillary is doing well. Despite their good scores, 2 of the 3 upstarts don't seem to be able to match her sharp and experienced abilities; nor does the other one. Bernie speaks well for his cause, but does he come across as presidential yet? Let's see more. I've watched two parts so far.

Anderson Cooper is asking tough questions.

Sanders has been doing the best job of articulating the right ideas. Hillary is innovative, although too cautious to challenge the status quo enough in some areas.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Hillary is doing well. Despite their good scores, 2 of the 3 upstarts don't seem to be able to match her sharp and experienced abilities; nor does the other one. Bernie speaks well for his cause, but does he come across as presidential yet? Let's see more. I've watched two parts so far.

Sanders has been doing the best job of articulating the right ideas. Hillary is innovative, although too cautious to challenge the status quo enough in some areas.

One exchange I noted, on gun policy. Hillary did a fairly typical democratic 'oh no, lots of deaths, it is time to fight the NRA and do something' without being specific about what she'd do. Sanders went down a specific list of changes very much in line with what you and I agree on... close the gun show loophole, universal background checks, better watch on the mentally disturbed... Yet, CNN rated Hillary as the stronger of the two on that issues. It may be that once the Sanders list is done there might be additional stronger steps that might be proposed, but let's start with the possible rather than vaguely agitating for the impossible.

Hillary is doing a pretty good imitation of the adult in the room, though. I liked her enemies list... the drug companies, the health insurance companies, Iran, Republicans...

Originally Posted by B Butler

One exchange I noted, on gun policy. Hillary did a fairly typical democratic 'oh no, lots of deaths, it is time to fight the NRA and do something' without being specific about what she'd do. Sanders went down a specific list of changes very much in line with what you and I agree on... close the gun show loophole, universal background checks, better watch on the mentally disturbed... Yet, CNN rated Hillary as the stronger of the two on that issues. It may be that once the Sanders list is done there might be additional stronger steps that might be proposed, but let's start with the possible rather than vaguely agitating for the impossible.

Hillary is doing a pretty good imitation of the adult in the room, though. I liked her enemies list... the drug companies, the health insurance companies, Iran, Republicans...

The true gun grabbers (e.g. radicals who want to destroy the 2nd Amendment) hate Sanders. They hate him because he does not oppose the 2nd Amendment, in fact he overtly supports it. And he's very practical in this regard. He knows only blow hards talk of destruction of Bill of Rights Amendments. Meanwhile, he has a specific set of measures he would undertake to deal with guns.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

The true gun grabbers (e.g. radicals who want to destroy the 2nd Amendment) hate Sanders. They hate him because he does not oppose the 2nd Amendment, in fact he overtly supports it. And he's very practical in this regard. He knows only blow hards talk of destruction of Bill of Rights Amendments. Meanwhile, he has a specific set of measures he would undertake to deal with guns.

Sanders was not strong enough in one regard; holding gun dealers responsible, which a court recently upheld. His past votes also haunt him with gun control advocates. But his point about finding consensus between rural and urban folks on this issue was good, and most of his other recommendations are practical.

another way of looking @ that is that an elected official should represent his/her constituents & Bernie does just that. There are alot of gun nuts up in VT. Aldo Anderson Cooper kept interrupting Bernie when he was explaining his position. Jim Webb basically summed up what Bernie was trying to get across(& nobody interrupted Webb) on the whole however, I thought Bernie did well. He managed to get his points across.

Originally Posted by B Butler

One exchange I noted, on gun policy. Hillary did a fairly typical democratic 'oh no, lots of deaths, it is time to fight the NRA and do something' without being specific about what she'd do. Sanders went down a specific list of changes very much in line with what you and I agree on... close the gun show loophole, universal background checks, better watch on the mentally disturbed... Yet, CNN rated Hillary as the stronger of the two on that issues. It may be that once the Sanders list is done there might be additional stronger steps that might be proposed, but let's start with the possible rather than vaguely agitating for the impossible.

Hillary is doing a pretty good imitation of the adult in the room, though. I liked her enemies list... the drug companies, the health insurance companies, Iran, Republicans...

Hillary won that fight by not weaseling. Bernie has been doing the same on economic issues. At this point in the contest, all issue-painting involves a broad brush. Nuance is for later ... much later.

Hillary was smart here, and Bernie failed to see it coming. Was this only a minor tactical error on his part, or is it much worse? It shouldn't take long to find out.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

Hillary won that fight by not weaseling. Bernie has been doing the same on economic issues. At this point in the contest, all issue-painting involves a broad brush. Nuance is for later ... much later.

Hillary was smart here, and Bernie failed to see it coming. Was this only a minor tactical error on his part, or is it much worse? It shouldn't take long to find out.

And it it will matter. It would be one thing if Sanders was in the bag for the NRA. As that's not true if too much of the base is so purist that they disqualify Sanders for making a vote on an issue that his in state supporters wanted then they will drive out a lot of other people away before election day for other reasons. The the GOP president elect can give them a lot of things to gripe about for 4 or 8 years.

FOX News reports that Dr. Carson can win the nomination and defeat Hillary or Sanders. In current poll numbers, that appears so. He is the most dangerous man running (not counting the most-dangerous woman, Ms. Fiorina). However, I am definitely predicting that HE WON'T WIN. You heard it here!

As I have said before, the most likely GOP nominees are Trump, Bush and Rubio.

So far these predictions of mine have come true about 2016: Trump did not flame out right away (he's still leading). Scott Walker did. Bernie Sanders is running a good campaign with strong support. Rubio is doing well.

Not true yet: Chris Christie will make a comeback late this year.

I predicted everything that happened in the 2012 race, as you could see from the Election 2012 thread and my website.

So, we'll see!

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

FOX News reports that Dr. Carson can win the nomination and defeat Hillary or Sanders.

It's Oct. 2015 right now not Oct. 2016. Numbers this far out are meaningless.

Originally Posted by Eric

As I have said before, the most likely GOP nominees are Trump, Bush and Rubio.

At some point Trump will find a way out of this race. I'm still not sure what his angle is, but I still wouldn't buy a used hotel from him. As of right now it is most llikely to be either Bush or Rubio. Florina will flame out as she did in Cali. when her record as a CEO becomes an issue.

Originally Posted by Eric

Not true yet: Chris Christie will make a comeback late this year.

Well, he's kissed off all of the legal weed voters so any comeback by him has a low ceiling. I will refrain from making a ''getting high'' pun here. :

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

FOX News reports that Dr. Carson can win the nomination and defeat Hillary or Sanders. In current poll numbers, that appears so. He is the most dangerous man running (not counting the most-dangerous woman, Ms. Fiorina). However, I am definitely predicting that HE WON'T WIN. You heard it here!

As I have said before, the most likely GOP nominees are Trump, Bush and Rubio.

So far these predictions of mine have come true about 2016: Trump did not flame out right away (he's still leading). Scott Walker did. Bernie Sanders is running a good campaign with strong support. Rubio is doing well.

Not true yet: Chris Christie will make a comeback late this year.

I predicted everything that happened in the 2012 race, as you could see from the Election 2012 thread and my website.

So, we'll see!

I suspect Rubio will be the GOP nominee. He's not milqtoast and uninspiring like Boooosh and he's not a complete loon like several of the other candidates.

Dem wise I still think it will be Clinton but Sanders is going to give her a run for her money.