Did you see the data PBrower posted? The data do not support what you wrote here vis a vis Trump and Rubio.Originally Posted by playwrite
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Did you see the data PBrower posted? The data do not support what you wrote here vis a vis Trump and Rubio.
Both main political parties have changed as they must to meet the apparent changes in political culture and economic reality lest they become irrelevant. Beyond any question the current GOP is not the GOP that GIs like Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan knew. At age 91 the elder Bush would be alien in his own Party because it has abandoned many of its old virtues.
The GOP used to be the Party of personal responsibility. It wanted people to get educated, exercise thrift, start small businesses, and create wholesome environments for children. It has instead come to support get-rich-quick schemes that do not create wealth, a ridicule of education other than workplace training, labor policies that ensure that most workers have nothing to save due to low wages, and tax policies that foster trusts and cartels.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
(NBC News/Meet the Press)
BOULDER, Colo. — The biggest story from last night's debate wasn't Marco Rubio's strong performance (which it was), Ted Cruz stealing a moment (which he did), or the candidates and GOP audience attacking the media (which most definitely happened).
Rather, the most significant story from last night is that Jeb Bush's campaign now finds itself on life support, especially after Bush swung and missed when trying to hit Rubio over his Senate voting record. As one Republican operative told NBC's Peter Alexander, Bush had to demonstrate to his supporters and donors — after a rough last few weeks — that the former Florida governor could land a punch, particularly after telegraphing to the political world that it was coming. But Bush missed. Badly.
It was the equivalent of a teenager who, after telling the whole school that he was going to fight a classmate at lunchtime, ended up being the one taking the licking. We've covered politics long enough to know that a presidential candidate can rise from the dead (John McCain), withstand a bad debate performance (Barack Obama), and shine when it counts rather than months before the first votes are cast (John Kerry). But Jeb Bush is in trouble right now. Big trouble.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pres...l_nfr_20151029
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Yep, and the Establishment wing will swing to Rubio.
But before his Establishment support coalesce, he'll not only come under withering attack from Trump but also from Kaisch, who will start pointing out that Rubio is as much a wingnut, living in magic ponyland, as the other wingnuts. Hopefully, this will take out Kaisch as well as Rubio.
The Establishment vote will have no where else to go but to Cruz.
I'm sure HC is salivating at the prospect, but really, any scenario with any of these clowns leads to her eating their lunch.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service
“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke
"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman
If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
I think both left and right could agree that the worst performers in the GOP debate last night were the "moderators" asking the questions. Pretty lame. Cruz scored points criticizing them, although maybe lost a few when he wouldn't shut up afterward.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...e-debacle.html
Last edited by Eric the Green; 10-29-2015 at 02:47 PM.
Biggest wingnut turned out to be Harwood, who had to eat crow about his assessment of Rubio;'s tax plan.
There will be primary polls next week, and should support for Jeb Bush all but disappear we will see some numbers rise. But whose?
This may be the weirdest political year in American history, even if it has few significant elections. But of those the gubernatorial election in Louisiana should be interesting for all the wrong reasons. I will refrain from the predictable insults of one of the candidates. A hint, though: I could never vote for a "family values" politician whose name appears on a madam's client list as a regular customer.
Not even in the "Seven Dwarfs" contest of 1988 (featuring Gary Hart and "Monkey Business") have things been so weird: that contest had Senators and Governors consistently as front-runners. Even if it had David Duke and Lyn Larouche running as Democrats, that lamentable duo got more ridicule than votes.
Weirdness tends to lose in political life. Democrats, who as a whole are much less weird, are in a good position a little over a year between the 2016 election.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 10-29-2015 at 10:31 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
It's too late now, but the most effective move the "serious" candidates could have made would have been to refuse to debate. Everyone knew it was going to be a circus. Why sign-on to wearing a rubber nose?
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
Here's how I see Ted Cruz doing against Hillary Clinton. Some of the polls go back to early summer at the least. Based solely upon the latest credible polls (none for or by special-interest groups, and no excellent-good-fair-poor polls -- although I could accept letter grades):
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
I'm waiting until next week to see whom he replaces. Most likely it's Mike Huckabee or Jeb Bush.
...I fail to see how he wins the Presidency. If he can't win either Florida or Virginia, and he puts Arizona in the 'too close to call' category, he then does no better than Mitt Romney did in 2012. This is with some polls during the low point of popularity of Hillary Clinton -- before the Congressional investigations of her imploded. Probably around the middle of next week, we will see people dropping out of the Presidential race formally or otherwise becoming irrelevant.
One pollster says that it is polling Iowa this weekend... and that should tell us much about the prospects for Republicans winning the Republican nomination and how the tipping-point state of 2008 goes after Hillary Clinton showed that she could beat a pair of bum raps.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 10-30-2015 at 07:32 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Last edited by Eric the Green; 11-02-2015 at 06:15 PM.
Amateur hour:
Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson
Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
What's up with PA, I wonder. They haven't even quite turned on Toomey yet either.
Demographically it's an old state. And currently old voter base=GOP advantage.
Horse pucky. The only ones who buy this about Rubio's tax plan are the faithful wingnuts
Harwood compared the consequences for the rich vs the middle class, and he was absolutely correct that the former benefits much more than the latter.
What Rubio did was pivot to comparing the rich vs the poor and on a percentage basis, he was correct - getting back $15 on $100 is a whopping 15% gift to the poor, whereas a billion dollar hedge fund manager getting on $100,000,000 dollars back would only be 10% - poor downtrodden hedge fund managers!
But what's really funny is the Tax Policy Center that provides all these numbers also say that what Rubio is proposing is one of the biggest welfare programs to come along in decades; essentially giving a couple of thousand to people who haven't paid taxes and wouldn't file except for the free money that Rubio's plan would hand out. Now, of course, the Rubio people are back peddling on this as quickly and hopefully as quietly as they can - hoping the current temper-tantum against the mean old media will be enough of a distraction that Macro can slink away. But if he doesn't, Trump is going to nail him to the cross on this eventually. Oh, and if you drop the welfare from the Rubio plan to placate the GOP base, then Rubio's plan would be solely for the benefit of the rich.
Read it -
http://www.vox.com/2015/10/30/964285...o-john-harwood
- and be afraid. Because while Rubio can get away with this horseshit in the GOP primaries talking to low-informational voters such as yourself, if he should make it to the general, Clinton will send little Marco whining to his mommy.
Last edited by playwrite; 11-02-2015 at 11:32 PM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service
“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke
"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman
If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
Aging polls. The Pennsylvania poll (like those from Colorado and Iowa) come from when the Right was preparing to grill Hillary Clinton about Benghazi and the server "scandal".
Senator Toomey's approval ranges, depending upon the pollster, from 29% top 50%. Take the mean of those and you probably get a good idea of where he is -- around 40% approval, which is poor for an incumbent Senator in a state in which he could easily be a poor ideological fit.
Iowa gets polled this week, and I predict that the results will tell us much. It rarely goes far from voting with Wisconsin, which is demographically similar. But this time there is a difference in Wisconsin: the GOP has fouled up badly. The state has gone from being a near-swing state with a slight D tendency to the Massachusetts of the Midwest. Iowa might simply follow a national trend.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
I don't ordinarily show primary polls, but this one (PPP, Iowa) shows some sorting-out.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p..._IA_110215.pdf
Carson has 21%; Cruz has 14%; Fiorina has 5%; Rubio has 10%; Trump has 22%.
The shocker is that Jeb Bush is down to 5%.
It looks as if Fiorina has had her time in the sun -- and the clouds have come in.
We are less than a half-dozen months from the primaries, and it is hard to see how anyone recovers from 5%. One would have to take support from several also-rans to be back in the game, and that seems an unlikely course for anyone.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 11-03-2015 at 04:22 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
But how did that happen all of sudden? It's been a blue state for decades, although not among the strongest ones.
Looking at that poll above, I notice Jindal gets 6%; that's unusual. Does he appeal to evangelicals?
Pundits on Meet the Press called Bush a 1956-like candidate, while the mood of the people today is too angry. In our language, appropo for a 1T, not a 4T. They said he doesn't have many ideas; just claimed accomplishments. They didn't come right out and say it, but in other words, just like they said of his father, he lacks "the vision thing." Not too good for a boomer prophet.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 11-03-2015 at 01:15 AM.
Remember any poll, even a good one, is just a snapshot in time. And it's year until the next election. Most people aren't even paying attention yet. And the 6% for Jndal is most likely just an outlier. If he is somehow catching on it will show up in other polls.
To put it coldly he's a defective model put out by a brand with a tarnished name. The year 1956 is apt. Imagine the Edsel coming out in these days when many consider Ford to be short for Found On the Road Dead.
I see Rubio as likely to go further at this point. But again, it's very early.
make your own map here
http://www.270towin.com/
This is how I get to 270:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mejv7
Trump injects lethal virus -
- into Rubio's campaign.
I was expecting Trump to take out Rubio by making a big deal out of either (a) Marco's tax plan is welfare ($1-2K to people who don't file taxes), (b) he cozied up to Obama/liberals on the "amnesty bill" or (c) both.
But Trump being Trump came at him sideways by picking up the meme which is BIG in Florida - Marco betrayed his mentor Jeb.
What Trump knows, that most Liberals find very difficult to grasp, is the amygdala-dominated Right is driven by emotion. There is no stronger emotion than betrayal. Trump has set off a virus in the GOP that will take out Rubio.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service
“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke
"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman
If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
At this point Jeb may be playing for the VP slot, and one way to do so is to do the dirty work of the eventual Presidential nominee.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have the same right to run for the Presidency. To a liberal this is the least
of any problems that any of us could have with either.
Loyalty is a reliable factor in right-wing authoritarianism -- even when the object of loyalty is suspect for incompetence, dishonesty, extremism, or corruption. I have said some nasty stuff about a Louisiana congressman with undeniable liberal credentials who kept proceeds of bribes in a freezer, of a former mayor of Detroit, and of a Governor of Illinois who tried to sell a US Senate seat that the newly-elected President of the United States had just vacated.
At the extreme, the German Right in the 1930s had no problem supporting a man who had initiated a violent uprising against the lawfully-elected government of Bavaria. If anyone knew how to play to the amygdala, there he was.
http://members.shaw.ca/jeanaltemeyer...oritarians.pdf
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Put gay people to death? Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee to speak at Iowa “religious liberty” conference led by noxious right-wing radio host
Republican candidates may want softball questions for the rest of the debate season, but here’s something that the moderators should be confronting at least some of them about: Three candidates—Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal—are scheduled to speak this weekend at a conference hosted by a radio host named Kevin Swanson who has openly advocated for putting gay people to death.
The conference is called the National Religious Liberties Conference, and it’s based on the premise that Christians are somehow having their religious liberties stripped from them because they can’t impose their views on others.
“Over the past few years, we’ve seen a marked erosion of the religious liberties that were the bedrock of the founding of our country,” Swanson says in a press release promoting the conference. “We’re inviting Christians to be equipped for the uncertain future while celebrating the liberties God has provided our nation over the centuries.”
So how are Christians losing their religious liberty in America? Imposition of Sharia law? Soviet-style discrimination against religious believers? Inclusion of propaganda for militant atheism in the schools?
No -- it comes down to this -- having to coexist with homosexuals:
http://www.salon.com/2015/11/02/put_...ng_radio_host/Many of the speakers at this “religious liberty” conference take their opposition to religious liberty to the next level. Obviously, it begins with Kevin Swanson, a main organizer whose enthusiasm for religious oppression is such that he praised Uganda for “standing strong” by passing a law that could lead to executions for homosexuality. Far from being a proponent of religious liberty, Swanson is an avid theocrat who frequently claims that governments should enforce his religious beliefs about homosexuality or “God’s judgment” will come “down upon civilizations.”
Similarly, as Right Wing Watch reports, two of the pastors speaking at the conference are aggressive theocrats who argue that our laws should be based on their interpretation of the Bible. Phil Kayser and Joel McDurmon are both on the record arguing that people who have gay sex should receive the death penalty for it. McDurmon’s workshop at the conference is titled, “Crushing Leviathan: Biblical Principles to Break Free of the Modern Inquisition.” But of course, he’s the one who is actually advocating for a modern inquisition, complete with violence against minorities that he believes are violating the rules of his faith, a faith they do not share.
My comment:
About as objectionable as appearing at a Klan meeting. But even the Klan typically stops short of advocating extermination of minorities.
Pardon me if I vomit.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 11-03-2015 at 09:01 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
AP calls a surprise: Republican Matt Bevin has won the Governorship of Kentucky over Democrat Jack Conway in the 2015 gubernatorial election.
Most polls suggested that the Democrat Conway would win.
Democrats still have majorities in both Houses of the state legislature.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
It's always a bad outcome when a Republican wins these days. Again, millennials probably stayed home. (:
But are they real Democrats?Democrats still have majorities in both Houses of the state legislature.
For the record the Republican retained control of the KY Senate.
