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Thread: US elections, 2016 - Page 45







Post#1101 at 11-27-2015 02:33 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Oh now, now I'm really going overboard with nostalgia. Here's George W Bush X two

"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1102 at 11-27-2015 01:15 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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The Iraq war was correctly opposed by democrats at least after the insurgency started, but it was opposed for the wrong reasons. I can never forgive Bush for not ordering the nuclear bombardment of the middle east in the aftermath of 9/11, which should have been also followed by ground invasion using Genghis Khan style tactics. Such cowardliness puts Bush right up there with Buchanan as one of our worst presidents.







Post#1103 at 11-27-2015 05:28 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
The Iraq war was correctly opposed by democrats at least after the insurgency started, but it was opposed for the wrong reasons. I can never forgive Bush for not ordering the nuclear bombardment of the middle east in the aftermath of 9/11, which should have been also followed by ground invasion using Genghis Khan style tactics. Such cowardliness puts Bush right up there with Buchanan as one of our worst presidents.
Humanity would never forgive America for imitating the greatest killer of people in proportion to the human population of the time.

Dubya was a coward, but in a way that you don't understand -- unwilling to recognize his own potential for giving way to the Dark Side. Buchanan was simply not up to an impossible task.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#1104 at 11-27-2015 06:06 PM by TnT [at joined Feb 2005 #posts 2,005]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
The Iraq war was correctly opposed by democrats at least after the insurgency started, but it was opposed for the wrong reasons. I can never forgive Bush for not ordering the nuclear bombardment of the middle east in the aftermath of 9/11, which should have been also followed by ground invasion using Genghis Khan style tactics. Such cowardliness puts Bush right up there with Buchanan as one of our worst presidents.
You're just fucking with us, aren't you?
" ... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition."







Post#1105 at 11-27-2015 08:32 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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On this Thanksgiving, here are the 10 things Iím most grateful for:
by Robert Reich

1. Wonderful family and friends.

2. My dad, who's still going strong (if he makes it, heíll be 102 in February)

3. My health and health of my loved ones.

4. The kind and generous people I meet in my travels around America.

5. My fabulous students (in my 35 years of university teaching I havenít encountered a generation of 18 to 25-year-olds as idealistic and as dedicated to the public good as this one).

6. Bernie Sanders.

7. The indefatigable, tenacious, and tireless advocates and organizers for equal opportunity, against voter suppression, for a $15-an-hour minimum wage, for Black Lives Matter, and for a more just society.

8. Teachers, who despite low pay and often impossible odds, continue to do one of the most important jobs in America.

9. Barack Obama.

10. Optimists.

And here are the 10 Iím least grateful for:

1. Pfizer, which is deserting America because it doesnít want to pay its tax bill here.

2. Walmart, which is spying on its employees.

3. Donald Trump, whoís leading Americaís hate brigade.

4. Other Republican presidential candidates, who are also spewing venom and lies.

5. Wall Street lobbyists who are at this moment trying to water down regulations against excessive speculation.

6. Martin Shreki, CEO of drug company Turing, who raised price of drug used by AIDS patients from $13.50 a pill to $750 when he took over the company, and still refuses to lower the price.

7. Charles and David Koch, whose political organization is spending as much on the 2016 election as is each of the two major political parties.

8. Fox News, which continues to fill the heads of Americans with lies, distortions, hate, bigotry, and right-wing propaganda.

9. Republican governors and state legislators who are busy trying to suppress the votes of minorities through voter ID laws and gerrymandering

10. Cynics -- because cynicism is a self-fulfilling prophesy making it almost impossible to do anything about 1-9 above.

What are you most grateful for? What are you least grateful for? Share your Thanksgiving thoughts with me and other Democracy for America members on Facebook!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1106 at 11-27-2015 08:34 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Economist/YouGov Poll: Trump Has 22-point Lead, Carson Slips to 4th
By Greg Richter | Thursday, 26 Nov 2015 05:38 PM
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/trum...t_nbr=kzke2ckc

Donald Trump has a commanding 22-point lead in the latest Economist/YouGov Republican presidential poll, while Ben Carson has slipped to fourth place amid the recent focus on terrorism.

Here are the results of people identifying themselves as likely Republican primary voters:

Donald Trump: 36 percent
Marco Rubio: 14 percent
Ted Cruz: 12 percent
Ben Carson: 10 percent
Jeb Bush: 6 percent
Carly Fiorina,
Rand Paul,
John Kasich: 4 percent each
Chris Christie: 3 percent
Mike Huckabee: 2 percent
Lindsey Graham: 1 percent

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds her commanding lead among likely primary voters:
Hillary Clinton: 54 percent
Bernie Sanders: 34 percent
Martin O'Malley: 4 percent

The poll was conducted Nov. 19-23.

The Reuters poll showed a drop of 12 points for Trump recently, but it was from a much higher level than in any poll I saw.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...zmOWEIJgHJI.97
Last edited by Eric the Green; 11-27-2015 at 09:34 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1107 at 11-27-2015 10:03 PM by B Butler [at joined Nov 2011 #posts 2,329]
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Left Arrow Not Fair!

Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Economist/YouGov Poll: Trump Has 22-point Lead, Carson Slips to 4th
I could see Trump going into the convention with more delegates that anyone else, but not enough to put him over the top. This could make for a more interesting convention than most. I am wondering whether if Trump has the most delegates but doesn't come out with the nomination if he'll perceive this as unfair and think it justifies an independent run.

The Democrats look like they'll have a candidate settled.







Post#1108 at 11-27-2015 10:22 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by B Butler View Post
I could see Trump going into the convention with more delegates that anyone else, but not enough to put him over the top. This could make for a more interesting convention than most. I am wondering whether if Trump has the most delegates but doesn't come out with the nomination if he'll perceive this as unfair and think it justifies an independent run.

The Democrats look like they'll have a candidate settled.
Brokered conventions are rare. The last ones brought about George McGovern and Barry Goldwater as nominees. In a brokered election the most partisan and strident parts of the Party often take charge and impose an extremist who gets the most excitement within the convention. Considering that Goldwater lost nine states that Democrats had not won since at least 1948 that Democrats have not since won, and that McGovern won only one state and the District of Columbia... that would not look promising except for Hillary Clinton. Losing eight states that have gone only once in thirteen elections without voting for a Democratic nominee and another only once in eleven Presidential elections (Alaska did not vote for the President in the 1950s; it would have gone for Ike in the 1950s)? That's a dubious achievement. Losing 49 states? Such has been done without a brokered convention (1984), so even if it isn't so singular it is incredibly awful.

The winner of Presidential nomination of the Republican Party is still going to get about 45% of the popular vote; the Right is large enough and crazy enough to vote for someone who promises to fulfill some of the most sordid wishes in American politics.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#1109 at 12-02-2015 02:20 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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The fear bump and bigotry bump may be over. Quinnipiac polls have been very Republican lately, but today they have swung back to the Democrats, as Clinton and Sanders both beat all GOP comers, with Rubio closest. Meanwhile, Obama's disapproval ratings are down and he's closer to even.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1110 at 12-02-2015 03:32 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Let's see where the race is now, using astrology but also other factors.

The horoscope scores of the Republicans, plus the Jupiter effect. The latter seems to be important but is only a temporary factor:

Donald Trump 15-4. Mars in Leo rising. No Jupiter effect. He has the best score among Republicans, which is why I correctly predicted his bid would last, contrary to almost all pundits.
Marco Rubio 17-12. Now in second place in one national poll. Jupiter favorable in the Fall of 2016; this may help him then if he is nominated. I have always said he has a good chance compared to most candidates.
Ted Cruz 4-6. Jupiter effect is negligible. He's in 2nd or 3rd place now. But he is too right-wing and doesn't play well with others. As Republican voters realize he is not electable, he will fade. But although his score is bad, he's smart and has a lot of support, as his chart shows. So he will be around for a while. Note: I don't know his birth time, but if he was born late in the day his score might change to 5-4. But one source lists his time as 1 AM. That would keep his score at 4-6, but would give him Pluto and Uranus-Moon rising. Rising planets on the Ascendant (coming up over the eastern horizon at birth) are a great boon, especially Jupiter and Uranus.
Ben Carson 4-6. Jupiter effect is boosting him strongly now, and this will last for a while. But as I originally predicted, he is already fading anyway. Now it looks like he may not win Iowa, and if he doesn't, he has little chance to take the lead again. He will NOT be nominated.
Jeb Bush 16-6. Like the other Bush's, he has a great horoscope score for getting elected. But the Bush brand is seriously damaged, and he gets no Jupiter effect. That may be why his energy is low, as Trump correctly says. But look for him to hang in there, and he will rise as others fall.
Carly Fiorina 13-10. She is benefiting from the Jupiter effect, which I did not see originally. With her pretty good score, and with help from Jupiter, she will hang around for a while, but I don't give her much of a shot.
Chris Christie 16-15. His horoscope score is remarkable for having high positive AND negative ratings. That is after all exactly what we would expect. I predicted he would make a comeback because he's a Virgo (like Fiorina, Carson and Sanders); thus benefiting from Jupiter there. The leading New Hampshire newspaper just endorsed him, which may help his comeback bid.
John Kasich 7-15. Strong Jupiter effect, but very negative score. He is doing pretty well in New Hampshire, and may be around a while, but he will not wear well with the voters and will not be nominated.
Rand Paul 12-8. He benefits from a weak Jupiter effect, and his score is pretty good. Look for him to hang around, but he is not in the mainstream of Republican voters, and is not doing well.
Mike Huckabee 6-6. Mr. Huckster-Jesus has no more Jupiter luck ahead of him. His score is mediocre. Look for him to drop out fairly soon.
Rick Santorum 7-7. His fellow evangelist has a similarly-mediocre score. He has better luck from Jupiter than Huckabee, though not as much as 4 years ago. He may hang around, but it doesn't look like he will break through.

Jindal has dropped out, as I predicted he would, and Pataki and Graham look to join him soon. Pataki (alone among these laggards) has a modestly-good score of 11-8, but is too liberal, and neither he nor Graham have any Jupiter effect going for them. Gilmore is not even on the radar right now. Scott Walker has a negative score, which is why I was correct that he would not make it, while others here and elsewhere gave him a good chance.

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton 9-8. No Jupiter effect. She benefits from Uranus rising in her chart, adding unofficially to her score, and from her experience and support. The "trust and hypocrisy" factors are reflected in her horoscope score.
Bernie Sanders 10-0. Jupiter is helping him rise, although his luck may run out at the convention. As I predicted, he is running a strong campaign and is doing better than pundits predicted. If the polls are right now, the reason for supporting Hillary might fade. That reason is that she is more electable than the "democratic socialist." But if people see that Sanders is really quite reasonable, and competent and presidential as a campaigner, and if he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he has a serious shot at actually winning the presidency. His good score is reflected in his ability to avoid gaffes, articulate powerfully and communicate his sincerity.
Martin O'Malley 14-14. Jupiter is helping him, and this help may last, although it will weaken in the Spring. His mediocre score indicates no chance against his powerful opponents, so I expect he will pull out before the convention.

The new moon before the election favors the party in power, and that's the Democrats. It depends on who is nominated, but nowadays I don't expect someone with a lousy score to get the nomination nod, although McCain managed it.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 12-03-2015 at 10:35 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1111 at 12-02-2015 07:59 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Well, if Trump gets nominated, the fix is really in, in a big way. Trump nomination = Clinton landslide.







Post#1112 at 12-02-2015 09:27 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
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Quote Originally Posted by TnT View Post
You're just fucking with us, aren't you?
I don't think our resident fascist is kidding you.







Post#1113 at 12-02-2015 09:31 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
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Quote Originally Posted by B Butler View Post
Yet another poll, this one from Pew as reported by CNN, saying lots of Republicans are angry at government. Not really new. One odd snippet caught my eye...



This leaves me disappointed with the Democrats.
How so? The reform that some Republicans have in mind involves changed the ruling party. Democrats would not support that. So it is entirely possible that the difference between the 75% and 44% reflects those whose idea a reform is a change in the party in control.







Post#1114 at 12-02-2015 10:36 PM by B Butler [at joined Nov 2011 #posts 2,329]
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Left Arrow When is a change not a change?

Quote Originally Posted by Mikebert View Post
How so? The reform that some Republicans have in mind involves changed the ruling party. Democrats would not support that. So it is entirely possible that the difference between the 75% and 44% reflects those whose idea a reform is a change in the party in control.
Exactly. I will be disappointed by a change in the party in control that doesn't change Washington DC in a significant way.







Post#1115 at 12-02-2015 11:08 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Well, if Trump gets nominated, the fix is really in, in a big way. Trump nomination = Clinton landslide.
It's hard to see any part of the Obama (2012) electorate that Trump picks up in the general election -- and as it turns out, many of the potential refugees from Syria are CHRISTIANS.

That's right -- a vote for Donald Trump is a vote against Christians.

One of the telling realities is that although all Republicans other than Donald Trump absolutely crush Hillary Clinton in Utah, Hillary Clinton comes close in Utah. Of course, Trump casinos are places of depravity to devout Mormons -- gambling, drinking, and smoking. Should the Mormon hierarchy turn on him to make a point, he could easily lose Utah with some high-profiles Mormons taunting him with "I told you so!" after the election. That is only six electoral votes -- but there is a bigger prize nearby. Arizona has a large Mormon population -- and I don't mean the polygamist "fundamentalist" cult. If Donald Trump should lose much of the Mormon vote in Arizona, then that and the fast-growing Mexican-American vote flip Arizona to the Democrats. That state has voted for a Democrat only once since 1948, and it has 12 electoral votes that Republicans dare not lose.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#1116 at 12-03-2015 01:49 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Well, if Trump gets nominated, the fix is really in, in a big way. Trump nomination = Clinton landslide.
Seems likely, but it would be a very serious mistake to underestimate him. To quote him, "I don't go into any endeavor to lose."
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1117 at 12-03-2015 10:32 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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New Hampshire GOP primary poll from PPP:

Trump 27
Cruz 13
Rubio 11
Christie 10
Carson 9
Kasich 8
Fiorina 6
Bush 5
Paul 4
Huckabee 1
Santorum 1
Pataki 1
Graham 0

Looks like Christie got a Boost from that NH paper endorsement. The Virgos are getting some benefit from that Jupiter effect!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1118 at 12-03-2015 11:18 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Seems likely, but it would be a very serious mistake to underestimate him. To quote him, "I don't go into any endeavor to lose."
Clinton doesn't either and she's been at it even longer than Trump.







Post#1119 at 12-04-2015 02:25 PM by Bad Dog [at joined Dec 2012 #posts 2,156]
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Hillary would emasculate Putin, let alone Trump.







Post#1120 at 12-04-2015 02:27 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Just like she did with her "reset" (overcharge) button.







Post#1121 at 12-12-2015 02:25 PM by '58 Flat [at Hardhat From Central Jersey joined Jul 2001 #posts 3,300]
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If Trump wins the Republican nomination, there will be no advocate of classical Republican laissez-faire economics in the race, for the first time since 1976.

So that will make the 2016 general election a realigning election, no matter who wins.
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!







Post#1122 at 12-12-2015 06:22 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by '58 Flat View Post
If Trump wins the Republican nomination, there will be no advocate of classical Republican laissez-faire economics in the race, for the first time since 1976.

So that will make the 2016 general election a realigning election, no matter who wins.
Is Trump less laissez-faire than McCain or GHW Bush? The jury is out on that.

Ford certainly was laissez-faire. Nixon, not so much.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

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Eric A. Meece







Post#1123 at 12-12-2015 10:20 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Cruz is up in Iowa.

Although his chart looks a little better to me now that I know his birth time, it's still not enough. Even Republicans will sour on Joseph McCarthy reincarnate. I think it's even possible for Carson to rebound again before they both fall.

Christie is having the comeback I predicted. Trump will probably beat out Cruz, Carson and Rubio in Iowa. Rubio's slow but steady rise will continue, and unless Trump does himself in (which he is trying his best to do), Rubio has a good shot at the nomination. And I wouldn't count out Jeb Bush just yet. Slow and steady might win the race.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#1124 at 12-13-2015 12:46 PM by '58 Flat [at Hardhat From Central Jersey joined Jul 2001 #posts 3,300]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Is Trump less laissez-faire than McCain or GHW Bush? The jury is out on that.

Ford certainly was laissez-faire. Nixon, not so much.


Trump's tax plan flies totally in the face of Mitt Romney's "47% of Americans don't pay taxes" rhetoric.
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!







Post#1125 at 12-13-2015 06:42 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by '58 Flat View Post
Trump's tax plan flies totally in the face of Mitt Romney's "47% of Americans don't pay taxes" rhetoric.
But since the difference with Romney's tax plan is so slight, if different at all, or differs from the other Republicans so little, it's no reversal of typical trickle-down policy; just not as wacky as Carson and Co.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 01-01-2016 at 04:15 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece
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