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Thread: US elections, 2016 - Page 105







Post#2601 at 03-02-2016 03:01 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Minnesota is one of maybe two states that I predicted would go to Rubio. How did I know that? I think the other one was Virginia, which almost did.

It's amazing how little of the African American vote Sanders is getting. I doubt Mordecai's explanation that Sanders is a Jew works; most blacks probably don't even know if he is a Jew or not. I just hope that these voters, who are making Clinton their nominee, will come out in full force for her in November.

It is interesting that Sanders has the highest approval rating of any candidate in the race. He and Donald Trump have come from being inconceivable to being strong candidates. And of course they have the 2 best horoscope scores.

Pundits say Trump may divide the party. The problem is, if so, it will be divided three ways; not two. Because Joe McCarthy reincarnate is as bat crazy as Donald Trump. His slogans and exaggerations are abominable. If the race narrows to two, then there's real doubt in my mind whether those on Trump's left would vote for Cruz, or whether those on Trump's right would vote for Kasich or even Rubio. Meanwhile, Trump would likely pick up some Rubio and Cruz voters if either one drops out. You have the moderate establishment wing on one side of Trump, and a conservative reactionary wing on the other.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 03-02-2016 at 03:26 AM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2602 at 03-02-2016 03:32 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
If we are looking for a real portent, about 100,000 more voters in VA voted in the Republican Primary than in the Democratic Primary. Could this mean VA could go Republican?
It seems possible. Polls don't show that so far though. I think there are new voters coming out for Trump, and also new voters coming out to vote against him. There are a few Democrats or Democratic leaning voters who are voting for Trump just so that the Republicans lose. Trump is a media sensation, so that means the Republican race is interesting to people. Meanwhile the Democratic race is a more limited field because potential candidates early on assumed that Hillary was inevitable. And they don't want to split the party, lest the intolerable and intolerant Republican Party wins. Democrats have some bitter experience with that scenario; at least the older voters do.

Trump won many states by a narrower margin than Clinton won her states. Both also lost about 4 states each. But Trump's more narrow victories may show that many voters came out to vote against him. Polls also show that late deciders broke a bit more for Rubio and Cruz than for Trump. Remember Trump won South Carolina by only 10 % points, while Clinton won by 50. This might also indicate that late deciders in November will break for Hillary, and that future GOP primary voters may break for Rubio and Cruz or even Kasich.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 03-02-2016 at 03:41 AM.
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Post#2603 at 03-02-2016 10:19 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Post S-Tues Knock-Out Update

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
So far my "knock out" predictions have been spot on.

With the big win in SC, we can safely put aside Mike's "Trumps a Loser!" scenario. NH could have been an earlier call for this, but SC nails it. Trump's in for the long haul. As expected, it knocked out Bush just like NH knocked out Christie. Carson should have left as well, but, well, his candidacy is weird; he'll likely leave at some point but it will be barely noticed and not really a knockout as much as a whimper in the corner somewhere. No knockout for Kasich as expected.

The Dems in NV proved to be the nothin-burger as expected since only a clear Sanders win would have been a likely knockout for Clinton. The rumor of Sanders taking a significant Latino vote proved much less than what it was, but it is something to watch as early as Colorado on Super Tuesday.

Coming up, Donald's win in NV will be near meaningless other than slowly adding to his delegate count which will be the story as the season progresses (ala 08 Obama keeping 100 delegates ahead of Clinton no matter what). The media is trying to make something of the Mormon vote going to Cruz or Rubio, but its really just another nothin burger. If Cruz, but particularly Rubio, makes it close in NV, its not a knock out for Trump but it does make latter events less certain.

Clinton taking SC big is not a knockout for Sanders but it can be considered a big stagger that he will likely not recover from. He makes it within 10 percentage points, however, then his eventual knockout becomes less certain.

The big potential knockouts on Super Tuesday for the GOP is Cruz losing TX and Rubio losing VA. Cruz will be clearly knocked out with a TX lost. Rubio will likely carry on with a VA loss but as a zombie. What would be most interesting is they both loss these two states and become zombies joined at the hip, trying to eat each others' dead brains and hearts. Trump would only be knocked out if he doesn't win any state, but would be looking good if he wins just half, sliding scale between these.

Kasich will hang in until March 8 Michigan, which if he comes in close 2nd, he will survive; a 3rd or worse showing and he's gone. An earlier Super Tuesday poor 3rd or 4th in VA would be the handwriting on the wall to watch for.

For Dems, the only possible knockout for Sanders on Super Tuesday would be a lost in Mass. If the MA lost is big (doubtful), he's gone; if its close or actually wins, he is a strong survivor. Clinton becomes questionable only if she doesn't take 1/2 the states.

Super Tuesday has too big of an impact on the GOP side to move past it other than for Kasich. So I'll hold off on that.

On the Dem side, if Bernie takes or is close in Mass., even if Clinton takes more than half the states on Super Tuesday, Michigan looms very large for both. If one wins by more than 10%, it is over for the other. If closer, then it is on to BIG March 15.

The combination of uncertainty from Super Tuesday and Michigan for Dems makes it too much to capture scenarios for March 15 other than saying regardless of outcomes, the knockout for one of the two Dems is very unlikely to go beyond that date - essentially the nomination will most likely be over for the Dems two weeks from now if not sooner. That's going to be necessary to deal with all the PUMAs out there, particularly if Clinton wins it.
On the DEM side, Bernie came close enough in MA to avoid the knock out, but he's teetering now. He needs either a win or to be close in Michigan (4% or less difference) on March 8, and then take one of the big three (OH, FL, IL) on the 15th with his best chance being OH. Pretty long odds for Bernie at this point but a single win in any of these four big states allows him to soldier-on as a pretty powerful zombie to keep tilting Hillary and the Dems further Left. A slow fade, rather than an abrupt knockout, will also likely help most in mitigating the PUMA situation, particularly by saving the Obama endorsement of HC as the final straw to break the PUMA situation's back (they almost pulled him in for SC but that was shown to very unnecessary) and rev-up turnout.

On the GOP side, outside of a Trump sweep of all states, it could not have gone better for the Donald on Super Tues. Cruz wins Texas+1 keeping him locked into the race, but the rest of March doesn't have anything for him; he'll generally dropped to third place finishes in all and possible fourth where Kasich is strong. Even when Carson leaves and gives up most of his voters to Cruz, Ted will remain as Trump's wingman zombie who will keep Rubio from animating. Rubio got his taste of a win with MN (a caucus not a primary) and will be hard press to leave given Cruz's low chances in the remaining March primaries, the disbelief he can lose in FL, and his ego. He will have some 2nd places and maybe an outright win, but Kasich will do to Rubio in places like MI and OH what Kasich did to him in VA. For Kasich, its probable too little too late even with wins in MI and OH, but he could become the "Last Great Hope" and keep the media circus alive going into the convention. With a lost in MI, a win in his OH will be just the "expected home state win" for the Governor, probably best serving as the contrast to Rubio's lose in FL that will knock Marco out of further contention.

I will mark Cruz as knocked out and taking the zombie wingman position for Trump. I would do the same for both Kasich and Rubio, except for the bad time Trump has had since last week's debate (small hands and the KKK); I don't think there was enough time for those things to be fully absorbed into the Super Tuesday gestalt. It will be by March 8, however. If Trump's national polling goes over 50% and/or he wins MI, it is over on the GOP side. I think this is the most likely scenario because everyone loves a winner and his pre-Super Tuesday bad week will have been forgotten by now.

I'm also not ready to mark Sanders as a knocked out, but the most likely scenario is that he's on the path to being a zombie; a powerful zombie but still a zombie. If he loses MI by more than 4%, he's done as a viable candidate but he will still be a big influence for critical PUMA and GOTV issues for the general - he'll have respect and considerable sway.
Last edited by playwrite; 03-02-2016 at 10:39 AM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

ďItís not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed Ö so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Itís much more akin to printing money.Ē - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#2604 at 03-02-2016 10:35 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
If we are looking for a real portent, about 100,000 more voters in VA voted in the Republican Primary than in the Democratic Primary. Could this mean VA could go Republican?
I was wondering who/what was going to replace JPT's poll skewing for entertainment this cycle. I think it's becoming clear.


We may not have JPT this time around but it looks like Karl the Clown is gearing up to play his jester role again -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...b03260bf78966f

Wrong-Way Karl Rove Rides Again
The Republican consultant probably should stop making election night calls.


Good news for anybody who wants to relive that 2012 election night moment when Republican fixer and "George W. Bush's brain" Karl Rove challenged his Fox News colleagues for calling the election for President Barack Obama, only to experience an immortality glazed flash of humiliation: Tonight, on Fox News, Rove botched it again.

At issue were the election returns in the Virginia primary, which for a while showed a taut race between golden-tanned horsehide Donald Trump and his ersatz foil, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. But as the night progressed, Trump built out a big enough lead to earn the win. (While Rubio will haul off some delegates, his "comeback narrative" could have gotten a useful boost if he'd won the state outright.)

Rove has been the infrequent target of Trump's insults during this cycle, so it's possible that he was a teensy bit over-invested in a Rubio win in the Old Dominion. Whatever the reason, however, Rove boned it again.
Here's the transcript below, but one really needs to go to the video at the link to experience the true awesomeness of it all
.

CHRIS WALLACE: What are your thoughts about Virginia, and that race?

KARL ROVE: Well, I think this race is going to continue to tighten. Umm...

WALLACE: Wait, wait, hold on just a second, apparently we've got a call in Virginia, so you can tell us after we get the call.

MEGYN KELLY: Chris, thank you, Fox News can now project that Donald Trump will pull out a win in Virginia, leaving Marco Rubio a close second, according to Fox News exit polls and early returns. What does that mean for Rubio and Donald Trump? Back to Chris Wallace and the campaign cowboys.

WALLACE: (laughing) Karl, tell me, what does that mean for Marco Rubio and Donald Trump?

Awesome sauce.
Last edited by playwrite; 03-02-2016 at 10:41 AM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

ďItís not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed Ö so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Itís much more akin to printing money.Ē - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#2605 at 03-02-2016 11:20 AM by marypoza [at joined Jun 2015 #posts 374]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Bernie isn't quite doing what he needed to do. He is coming close in Massachusetts, as he did in Iowa and Nevada. But unless blacks suddenly feel the Bern, he can't win unless he wins states like Massachusetts. He has some better states coming, now that the southern super tuesday scheme to boost the "moderates" has past. But so far he hasn't sealed the deal in the other kinds of states he needs to win. But he'll stay in to make sure that Clinton and her party keeps veering left.
-- yes but the states he did win are all blue to purple states (except OK) & Mass was a statisical tie. There are more blue state primaries down the road







Post#2606 at 03-02-2016 01:08 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by marypoza View Post
-- yes but the states he did win are all blue to purple states (except OK) & Mass was a statistical tie. There are more blue state primaries down the road
Playwrite has it about right. Bernie has enough money and support to keep going. But remember the path has been laid out for him, and it's not to his advantage. Super Tuesday was created by Chuck Robb some years ago to give moderates momentum to defeat lefties like McGovern for the Democratic nomination. It's probably working for Hillary. But Sanders has a couple of places in the schedule where he can come back: in the next group; followed by another group advantage Hillary, and then again at the end. It depends on him keeping a tie in the national polls. He has dropped recently there too, so he'll have to rise again there. But the worst group is behind him.

Rubio has to win Florida in order to help stop Trump and hope for a brokered convention. Cruz won 3 states and picked up a sizeable delegate chunk from his home state. If Rubio wins Florida, then it might look better for him in the future, while it doesn't look better in too many places for Cruz. From now on, unless Trump falls out of favor due to the attacks from his two "wing men" or at the debates, Cruz can only hope for a few wins here and there in the South and lower midwest, plus some hispanic states in the West.

Trump is on his way, but his margins of victory were narrow in many states, and late deciders defected. Could the whole race be laced with "late deciders" defecting from him in future primaries? If so, he might be stopped, but that will mean division and a convention fight. That's the only way now that Cruz or Rubio can win. No candidate has ever won as many primaries as Trump has and lost the nomination. He will retain a lot of support, even if his momentum is slowed down. Cruz, Rubio and the 2 others are splitting the anti-Trump votes. That means neither can be nominated outright. But on the other hand, if there's only two candidates left, especially if the other one is Cruz, then Trump will get some of those voters and he will be nominated. Only the others all campaigning have any hope of stopping him now.

I have already predicted Trump will be the nominee months ago.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 03-02-2016 at 01:39 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2607 at 03-02-2016 01:37 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Latest Republican primary polls: in these states, recent polls have been taken.
AZ TRUMP 35 RUBIO 22
CA CRUZ 25 TRUMP 23 RUBIO 13
CO RUBIO 19 TRUMP 17
CT TRUMP 25 RUBIO 14
FL TRUMP 34/45 RUBIO 27/25
ID TRUMP 31 CRUZ 19
IL TRUMP 38 RUBIO 21
IN TRUMP 26 RUBIO 17
KS TRUMP 26 CRUZ 14 RUBIO 13
KY TRUMP 35 RUBIO 22
MD TRUMP 32 CRUZ 15 RUBIO 14
MI TRUMP 33 RUBIO 18 CRUZ 18
MS TRUMP 27
MO TRUMP 33 CRUZ 23
NJ TRUMP 38 RUBIO 11
NM CRUZ 25 TRUMP 24 RUBIO 19
NY TRUMP 34 CRUZ 16 RUBIO 16
NC TRUMP 28 CRUZ 19 RUBIO 16
OH TRUMP 31 KASICH 26 CRUZ 21
PA TRUMP 22 RUBIO 16 KASICH 15
RI TRUMP 41 RUBIO 14 KASICH 12
UT RUBIO 24 CRUZ 22 TRUMP 18
WV TRUMP 40 CRUZ 20
WI TRUMP 30 RUBIO 20 CRUZ 19

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...rimaries,_2016

Considering late deciders, Rubio might pick up at least 10 points and Cruz 5 from these polls.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 03-02-2016 at 01:40 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2608 at 03-02-2016 01:43 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
On the DEM side, Bernie came close enough in MA to avoid the knock out, but he's teetering now. He needs either a win or to be close in Michigan (4% or less difference) on March 8, and then take one of the big three (OH, FL, IL) on the 15th with his best chance being OH. Pretty long odds for Bernie at this point but a single win in any of these four big states allows him to soldier-on as a pretty powerful zombie to keep tilting Hillary and the Dems further Left. A slow fade, rather than an abrupt knockout, will also likely help most in mitigating the PUMA situation, particularly by saving the Obama endorsement of HC as the final straw to break the PUMA situation's back (they almost pulled him in for SC but that was shown to very unnecessary) and rev-up turnout.

On the GOP side, outside of a Trump sweep of all states, it could not have gone better for the Donald on Super Tues. Cruz wins Texas+1 keeping him locked into the race, but the rest of March doesn't have anything for him; he'll generally dropped to third place finishes in all and possible fourth where Kasich is strong. Even when Carson leaves and gives up most of his voters to Cruz, Ted will remain as Trump's wingman zombie who will keep Rubio from animating. Rubio got his taste of a win with MN (a caucus not a primary) and will be hard press to leave given Cruz's low chances in the remaining March primaries, the disbelief he can lose in FL, and his ego. He will have some 2nd places and maybe an outright win, but Kasich will do to Rubio in places like MI and OH what Kasich did to him in VA. For Kasich, its probable too little too late even with wins in MI and OH, but he could become the "Last Great Hope" and keep the media circus alive going into the convention. With a lost in MI, a win in his OH will be just the "expected home state win" for the Governor, probably best serving as the contrast to Rubio's lose in FL that will knock Marco out of further contention.

I will mark Cruz as knocked out and taking the zombie wingman position for Trump. I would do the same for both Kasich and Rubio, except for the bad time Trump has had since last week's debate (small hands and the KKK); I don't think there was enough time for those things to be fully absorbed into the Super Tuesday gestalt. It will be by March 8, however. If Trump's national polling goes over 50% and/or he wins MI, it is over on the GOP side. I think this is the most likely scenario because everyone loves a winner and his pre-Super Tuesday bad week will have been forgotten by now.

I'm also not ready to mark Sanders as a knocked out, but the most likely scenario is that he's on the path to being a zombie; a powerful zombie but still a zombie. If he loses MI by more than 4%, he's done as a viable candidate but he will still be a big influence for critical PUMA and GOTV issues for the general - he'll have respect and considerable sway.
If Trump ends up anointed rather than having to go into a floor fight at the convention then #NeverTrump will really decimate the GOP from within, come November. It's a matter of principle over party alignment be it card carriers or more temporary alignments of convenience as in the cases of Independents who may or may not swing GOP. Even if Trump is forced into a floor fight and wins it, #NeverTrump will have a loyal element who still break from the herd in November. Bottom line, barring a complete Trump melt down the GOP will be decimated in The General.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2609 at 03-02-2016 01:46 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
If Trump ends up anointed rather than having to go into a floor fight at the convention then #NeverTrump will really decimate the GOP from within, come November. It's a matter of principle over party alignment be it card carriers or more temporary alignments of convenience as in the cases of Independents who may or may not swing GOP. Even if Trump is forced into a floor fight and wins it, #NeverTrump will have a loyal element who still break from the herd in November. Bottom line, barring a complete Trump melt down the GOP will be decimated in The General.
I could see Indy's sticking to #neverTrump but I certainly would not count on the 'Party of Family Values' to stand on any principles when there's money to be made or elections to win.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

ďItís not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed Ö so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Itís much more akin to printing money.Ē - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#2610 at 03-02-2016 01:47 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Playwrite has it about right. Bernie has enough money and support to keep going. But remember the path has been laid out for him, and it's not to his advantage. Super Tuesday was created by Chuck Robb some years ago to give moderates momentum to defeat lefties like McGovern for the Democratic nomination. It's probably working for Hillary. But Sanders has a couple of places in the schedule where he can come back: in the next group; followed by another group advantage Hillary, and then again at the end. It depends on him keeping a tie in the national polls. He has dropped recently there too, so he'll have to rise again there. But the worst group is behind him.

Rubio has to win Florida in order to help stop Trump and hope for a brokered convention. Cruz won 3 states and picked up a sizeable delegate chunk from his home state. If Rubio wins Florida, then it might look better for him in the future, while it doesn't look better in too many places for Cruz. From now on, unless Trump falls out of favor due to the attacks from his two "wing men" or at the debates, Cruz can only hope for a few wins here and there in the South and lower midwest, plus some hispanic states in the West.

Trump is on his way, but his margins of victory were narrow in many states, and late deciders defected. Could the whole race be laced with "late deciders" defecting from him in future primaries? If so, he might be stopped, but that will mean division and a convention fight. That's the only way now that Cruz or Rubio can win. No candidate has ever won as many primaries as Trump has and lost the nomination. He will retain a lot of support, even if his momentum is slowed down. Cruz, Rubio and the 2 others are splitting the anti-Trump votes. That means neither can be nominated outright. But on the other hand, if there's only two candidates left, especially if the other one is Cruz, then Trump will get some of those voters and he will be nominated. Only the others all campaigning have any hope of stopping him now.

I have already predicted Trump will be the nominee months ago.
Going forward Trump's support will come from Nazis / fellow travelers, idiots, and, sheep who misunderstand Reagan's comment about not speaking ill of fellow Republicans. Reagan's statement was from a different time and place (e.g. late 2T, early 3T). That statement is no longer relevant. #NeverTrump may at some point overtly become a new political party. Here we are folks. We be 4T.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2611 at 03-02-2016 01:50 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
I could see Indy's sticking to #neverTrump but I certainly would not count on the 'Party of Family Values' to stand on any principles when there's money to be made or elections to win.
You might be surprised how many GOPers are already stating they would vote for Sanders over Trump. This includes sub factions of Social Conservatives, sub factions of hard core Randians and even the odd TPer. No doubt as November approaches some will loose their nerve but this is unlike any previous election or at least unlike any during the past 140 years.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2612 at 03-02-2016 02:04 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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in these states, recent polls have been taken:
AK SANDERS 48 CLINTON 34
AZ CLINTON 56 SANDERS 22
CA CLINTON 46 SANDERS 35
CT CLINTON 49 SANDERS 31
FL CLINTON 54 SANDERS 24
ID CLINTON 35 SANDERS 35
IL CLINTON 57 SANDERS 28
KS CLINTON 33 SANDERS 23
KY CLINTON 56 SANDERS 12 (OLD POLL)
LA CLINTON 60 SANDERS 29
ME SANDERS 28 CLINTON 27
MD CLINTON 58 SANDERS 28
MI CLINTON 56 SANDERS 36
MS CLINTON 60 SANDERS 26
MO CLINTON 53 SANDERS 25 (OLD)
NJ CLINTON 55 SANDERS 32
NM CLINTON 47 SANDERS 33
NY CLINTON 55 SANDERS 34
NC CLINTON 47 SANDERS 37
OH CLINTON 55 SANDERS 40
OR CLINTON 44 SANDERS 39 (OLD)
PA CLINTON 48 SANDERS 27
RI CLINTON 49 SANDERS 40
UT CLINTON 51 SANDERS 44
WA CLINTON 45 SANDERS 36 (OLD)
WV SANDERS 32 CLINTON 24
WI SANDERS 44 CLINTON 43

Sanders may be expected to make gains, at least in states coming up later. There are no winner-take-all states.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

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Post#2613 at 03-02-2016 02:13 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Going forward Trump's support will come from Nazis / fellow travelers, idiots, and, sheep who misunderstand Reagan's comment about not speaking ill of fellow Republicans. Reagan's statement was from a different time and place (e.g. late 2T, early 3T). That statement is no longer relevant. #NeverTrump may at some point overtly become a new political party. Here we are folks. We be 4T.
I think Rubio is the only one who could stop Trump in the GOP, and only if Cruz drops out and endorses him. And probably not even then.

I am rooting for Trump over Rubio, mainly because Rubio has a better chance in the general, especially against HRC. The greatest disaster would be for ANY Republican to be elected.

Rubio has made statements that could limit his appeal. Two of these are: "we are in a clash of civilizations." How is that going to play with our Muslim allies? And, "we are the children of the Reagan Revolution, especially those my age and up to about 10 years older." Yes, he really said that! A blatant appeal to the Atari Xers and Jones Xers to vote for the insanity they grew up with. What are those people of other ages supposed to think? We should just cede power to these deceived ones, the alleged "Reagan children" like Classic Xer, Prince of Cats and JPT?

#neverRepublican
Last edited by Eric the Green; 03-02-2016 at 04:17 PM.
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Post#2614 at 03-02-2016 02:22 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I think Rubio is the only one who could stop Trump in the GOP, and only if Cruz drops out and endorses him. And probably not even then.

I am rooting for Trump over Rubio, mainly because Rubio has a better chance in the general, especially against HRC. The greatest disaster would be for ANY Republican to be elected.

Rubio has made statements that could limit his appeal. Two of these are: "we are in a clash of civilizations." How is that going to play with our Muslim allies? And, "we are the children of the Reagan Revolution, especially those my age and up to about 10 years older." Yes, he really said that! A blatant appeal to the Atari Xers and Jones Xers and Boomers to vote for the insanity they grew up with. What are those people of other ages supposed to think? We should just cede power to these deceived ones, the alleged "Reagan children" like Classic Xer, Prince of Cats and JPT?

#neverRepublican
Better a Reagan Republican who you may happen to hate, than a Nazi / White Nationalist who may be a Constitutional disaster or worse.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2615 at 03-02-2016 02:38 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Here's how Rubio and Cruz can shake down Trump. Come to think of it, this might be the best outcome for the Democrats!

http://nypost.com/2016/03/02/heres-h...ke-down-trump/

.....Trumpís lead isnít growing the way one might have expected. This means heís zooming along with no obstacles in sight ó but heís not a steamroller yet. And it suggests Rubioís insult barrage and Trumpís horrible debate performance last week hurt him.

Still, Rubio and Cruz have only a very small chance each to get the Broadway-play happy ending they crave. Which is why the stop-Trump dynamic changed last night, as Rubioís senior managers effectively acknowledged yesterday afternoon.

They told donors that it was likely Trump could not be defeated outright and in that case the only recourse would be to stay in the race to deny Trump a majority of the Republican delegates, take the race to the convention floor in July, and see if a counter-uprising can be staged against the Trump movement.

This canít be Rubioís strategy alone. It has to be Cruzís strategy as well, and that of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The math works, kind of, if Rubio can win Florida and if Kasich can win Ohio on March 15. It doesnít, really, if Trump wins both.

There are a million problems with this scenario. Foremost among them, Trumpís supporters will not just cry foul, theyíll go completely bananas.

The convention could degenerate into a kind of horrifying mess the country hasnít seen since the Democratic Party found itself under assault from anti-Vietnam rioters at the 1968 convention in Chicago.

Cruz hinted last night that he and Rubio team up ó with the clear intimation heíd be the top of the ticket and Rubio his veep. Rubio wonít go anywhere until the Florida vote, and if he wins, he might then suggest something similar ó with the order flipped.....
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2616 at 03-02-2016 02:41 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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03-02-2016, 02:41 PM #2616
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Better a Reagan Republican who you may happen to hate, than a Nazi / White Nationalist who may be a Constitutional disaster or worse.
Whether I hate one of them or not, doesn't matter. What I am concerned about is the policies of the Republican Party, whether they be Trump, Cruz, Rubio or even Kasich Republicans.

But, as per the last post, what's better for the Democrats is hard to say now.

#neverRepublican
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2617 at 03-02-2016 02:54 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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03-02-2016, 02:54 PM #2617
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Here's how Rubio and Cruz can shake down Trump. Come to think of it, this might be the best outcome for the Democrats!

http://nypost.com/2016/03/02/heres-h...ke-down-trump/

.....Trumpís lead isnít growing the way one might have expected. This means heís zooming along with no obstacles in sight ó but heís not a steamroller yet. And it suggests Rubioís insult barrage and Trumpís horrible debate performance last week hurt him.

Still, Rubio and Cruz have only a very small chance each to get the Broadway-play happy ending they crave. Which is why the stop-Trump dynamic changed last night, as Rubioís senior managers effectively acknowledged yesterday afternoon.

They told donors that it was likely Trump could not be defeated outright and in that case the only recourse would be to stay in the race to deny Trump a majority of the Republican delegates, take the race to the convention floor in July, and see if a counter-uprising can be staged against the Trump movement.

This canít be Rubioís strategy alone. It has to be Cruzís strategy as well, and that of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The math works, kind of, if Rubio can win Florida and if Kasich can win Ohio on March 15. It doesnít, really, if Trump wins both.

There are a million problems with this scenario. Foremost among them, Trumpís supporters will not just cry foul, theyíll go completely bananas.

The convention could degenerate into a kind of horrifying mess the country hasnít seen since the Democratic Party found itself under assault from anti-Vietnam rioters at the 1968 convention in Chicago.

Cruz hinted last night that he and Rubio team up ó with the clear intimation heíd be the top of the ticket and Rubio his veep. Rubio wonít go anywhere until the Florida vote, and if he wins, he might then suggest something similar ó with the order flipped.....
Maybe we do need a GOP version of '68. After all, Nazis and NBPers seem to imagine themselves as a bunch of macho street fighters and everyone else are wimps. Maybe disabusing them of such notions would be a good thing for America.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2618 at 03-02-2016 03:06 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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03-02-2016, 03:06 PM #2618
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Maybe we do need a GOP version of '68. After all, Nazis and NBPers seem to imagine themselves as a bunch of macho street fighters and everyone else are wimps. Maybe disabusing them of such notions would be a good thing for America.
I have no idea what you mean by "NBPers"
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2619 at 03-02-2016 04:13 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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03-02-2016, 04:13 PM #2619
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I have no idea what you mean by "NBPers"
Well since Einzige has not shown up yet to come bloviate about his tribe, NBP stands for National Bolshevik Party.

Imagine a combo of Nazism and Stalinism at least for an approximation. But it's not just a simple sum of the two. Much worse than that.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2620 at 03-02-2016 04:14 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Back to the Election ... Carson's saying bye bye soon. He sees no way forward.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2621 at 03-02-2016 04:15 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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03-02-2016, 04:15 PM #2621
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
Well since Einzige has not shown up yet to come bloviate about his tribe, NBP stands for National Bolshevik Party.

Imagine a combo of Nazism and Stalinism at least for an approximation. But it's not just a simple sum of the two. Much worse than that.
I don't see any such party on the horizon in America.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2622 at 03-02-2016 04:59 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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03-02-2016, 04:59 PM #2622
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I don't see any such party on the horizon in America.
They are already here.

Not to the same degree as in Europe yet.

Some of them are registered in other parties - not sure if NBP are formally a political party here yet.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2623 at 03-02-2016 05:18 PM by radind [at Alabama joined Sep 2009 #posts 1,595]
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03-02-2016, 05:18 PM #2623
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I think Rubio is the only one who could stop Trump in the GOP, and only if Cruz drops out and endorses him. And probably not even then.

I am rooting for Trump over Rubio, mainly because Rubio has a better chance in the general, especially against HRC. ...
We agree partially on Rubio, but I still prefer Rubio over Trump.
However, it appears that me that no one beat Clinton in Nov 2016.







Post#2624 at 03-02-2016 05:23 PM by radind [at Alabama joined Sep 2009 #posts 1,595]
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03-02-2016, 05:23 PM #2624
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Here's how Rubio and Cruz can shake down Trump. Come to think of it, this might be the best outcome for the Democrats!

http://nypost.com/2016/03/02/heres-h...ke-down-trump/

.....Trumpís lead isnít growing the way one might have expected. This means heís zooming along with no obstacles in sight ó but heís not a steamroller yet. And it suggests Rubioís insult barrage and Trumpís horrible debate performance last week hurt him.

Still, Rubio and Cruz have only a very small chance each to get the Broadway-play happy ending they crave. Which is why the stop-Trump dynamic changed last night, as Rubioís senior managers effectively acknowledged yesterday afternoon.

They told donors that it was likely Trump could not be defeated outright and in that case the only recourse would be to stay in the race to deny Trump a majority of the Republican delegates, take the race to the convention floor in July, and see if a counter-uprising can be staged against the Trump movement.

This canít be Rubioís strategy alone. It has to be Cruzís strategy as well, and that of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The math works, kind of, if Rubio can win Florida and if Kasich can win Ohio on March 15. It doesnít, really, if Trump wins both.

There are a million problems with this scenario. Foremost among them, Trumpís supporters will not just cry foul, theyíll go completely bananas.

The convention could degenerate into a kind of horrifying mess the country hasnít seen since the Democratic Party found itself under assault from anti-Vietnam rioters at the 1968 convention in Chicago.

Cruz hinted last night that he and Rubio team up ó with the clear intimation heíd be the top of the ticket and Rubio his veep. Rubio wonít go anywhere until the Florida vote, and if he wins, he might then suggest something similar ó with the order flipped.....
More and more it looks to me like the demise of the GOP. A new party may emerge in a few decades to challenge the Democratic party.







Post#2625 at 03-02-2016 05:30 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
If we are looking for a real portent, about 100,000 more voters in VA voted in the Republican Primary than in the Democratic Primary. Could this mean VA could go Republican?
VA was always in the bag for Hillary, and most of the Democrats already know that. The GOP race is a lot more fun right now, so voting there may a bigger draw. On the other hand, third terms are not common, so this may be a GOP year. It's better this time than next
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
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