Trump is doing well, as expected, in MS.

Kasich and Rubio should get out of the way of Cruz. He's clearly the main threat to Trump in most states.

Kasich is doing sort-of-OK in Michigan. Rubio is beginning to get results similar to those of Jeb Bush and Ben Carson... he's going down.

I know how partisan I am, so to maintain credibility I must back my opinions with quantitative data. I have long thought of him as the sort of person whose level of competence is being a State legislator in a district tailored to him. He's beginning to look like a modern version of a Greek tragedy: he has some successes, overreaches, and gets ruined. But it is 'ruined', and not destroyed. He is no Icarus who flew too close to the Sun and then crashed to Earth. America is not Mount Olympus.

Florida voters caught onto him before the rest of us did. Let him savor his few political victories, and recollect the delegates that he got committed to him. Such is an achievement that few of us will ever have.

Bernie has won the state of Michigan in a major upset.

How to stop Trump in three easy steps.

1) Rubio and Kasich quit immediately. Both endorse Cruz.

2) Rubio, Kasich plus all other GOP candidates who've dropped out ask their delegates to pledge to support Cruz.

3) #nevertrump needs to pledge that #NeverTrump means, #NeverTrump, even in November. A public statement is needed (this last bit is the poison pill).

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

How to stop Trump in three easy steps.

1) Rubio and Kasich quit immediately. Both endorse Cruz.

2) Rubio, Kasich plus all other GOP candidates who've dropped out ask their delegates to pledge to support Cruz.

3) #nevertrump needs to pledge that #NeverTrump means, #NeverTrump, even in November. A public statement is needed (this last bit is the poison pill).

The problem with that is that even much of the Republican Establishment finds Cruz even harder to tolerate than Trump. Cruz is a fanatic. Trump will at least make deals. And Trump just won big in Michigan with total Republican turnout higher than total Democratic turnout (where Sanders won by 2 points). #NeverTrump begins to look a lot like Nobama or PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) in 2008.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Kasich is doing sort-of-OK in Michigan. Rubio is beginning to get results similar to those of Jeb Bush and Ben Carson... he's going down.

I know how partisan I am, so to maintain credibility I must back my opinions with quantitative data. I have long thought of him as the sort of person whose level of competence is being a State legislator in a district tailored to him. He's beginning to look like a modern version of a Greek tragedy: he has some successes, overreaches, and gets ruined. But it is 'ruined', and not destroyed. He is no Icarus who flew too close to the Sun and then crashed to Earth. America is not Mount Olympus.

Florida voters caught onto him before the rest of us did. Let him savor his few political victories, and recollect the delegates that he got committed to him. Such is an achievement that few of us will ever have.

Kasich's problems are just beginning. Kasich has to answer for the lead poisoning of Ohioans as Snyder must for Michiganers.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Michigan may turn against Trump - most recent poll had him deflecting downward and Cruz deflecting upward. Idaho is a wild card, lots of LDS. Hawaii is anyone's guess. Mississippi may or may not repeat what's been seen in other Southern states.

Idaho is going for Cruz on the Republican side. Idaho Dems vote on 3/22. Sanders might do well in Idaho. Big tech sector in Boise and most voters are Republicans. Hawaii Republican caucus is anybody's guess. Hawaii Dems don't vote until 3/26.

Originally Posted by Dave 89

Bernie has won the state of Michigan in a major upset.

So much for the urging of others that I quit logging polls that suggest that Bernie Sanders has no real chance.

Originally Posted by MordecaiK

Kasich's problems are just beginning. Kasich has to answer for the lead poisoning of Ohioans as Snyder must for Michiganers.

There will be more politicians to go down for this. Not all will be Republicans.

Right and wrong do not have partisan labels .

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Trump is doing well, as expected, in MS.

Kasich and Rubio should get out of the way of Cruz. He's clearly the main threat to Trump in most states.

Jump from the frying pan into the fire, then.

We'll see how Rubio does in FL, and Kasich in OH. If they fail, they are done. Then it's off to the races between degenerate con-man and extremist lunatic.

Originally Posted by Dave 89

I don't see the youth turnout being high at all in this election. Especially if it ends up being Hillary vs Trump for the election. Young voters hate both candidates and a lot of Bernie voters refuse to ever cast a vote for Hillary.

Young voters need to learn what living in a democracy requires. It requires that you vote, and consider the consequences of not voting. If you are aware of what Republican monopoly power might produce, that means voting for Hillary; or else it means voting for someone else, including an independent or third party, to make a statement. But not voting is not being a civic generation at all.

Originally Posted by playwrite

First, former Bernie supporters staying home or voting third party, i.e., the narcissistic adolescent within these PUMAs will take ahold of their brains and shut them down on election day.

Good businesses don't blame customers for not buying their shitty products and the same is true in politics.

Originally Posted by Odin

Good businesses don't blame customers for not buying their shitty products and the same is true in politics.

I will continue to blame the morons who voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 and help give us 9/11, the Iraq invasion, the Great Recession and Financial Meltdown, and the continuation of a conservative SCOTUS decisions like Citizens United.

I will also continue to blame the same morons who stayed home in the 2010 elections and help give us government shutdowns, debt ceiling crisis, lack of immigration reform, insufficient infrastructure and educational spending, and continuing income disparity.

I see no reason to stop blaming you all when once you either (a) give us President Trump with consequences similar to those of your moronic 2000 decisions or (b) put an ineffective angry old dude holded up in the White House that you will be the first to turn on (as you did with your last savior, Obama, when he didn't deliver your magic ponies) with the consequences similar to those of your moronic 2010 decisions.

Maybe the third time will be the charm. To bad your kids and grandkids will have to live with the consequences of your bad decision-making.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Young voters need to learn what living in a democracy requires. It requires that you vote, and consider the consequences of not voting. If you are aware of what Republican monopoly power might produce, that means voting for Hillary; or else it means voting for someone else, including an independent or third party, to make a statement. But not voting is not being a civic generation at all.

Uh, it's a 2 way street, there Eric.
Let's go back to the early 1980's.

1. Why are most of the Republican presidential candidates X'ers? Easy, the Republican party from Reagan all the way down actively courted the youth vote then. There was no finger wagging or lectures.
2. The planks on the platform appealed to the young Xer desires for less government and affirmed the individual over all else. I'll be the first to admit that that wasn't always in the Xer best interest. Exhibit A would be student loans instead of public funding. So, there was an implicit trade off between public funding and independence. There was also an implicit referendum on the 1970's. S&H mentioned that aspect by saying Xer's slammed the "R" lever to send a message. No More 1970's.
3. The Democratic party didn't even lift a finger to counter this. I see the same thing going on now wrt Millies. We Democrats seem stuck on identity politics. Sorry, that hound don't hunt no more. The Millies need an option to say No More 2000's. Bernie's the only one that's got that message. I mean really, our party hacks need to start thinking more.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Jump from the frying pan into the fire, then.

We'll see how Rubio does in FL, and Kasich in OH. If they fail, they are done. Then it's off to the races between degenerate con-man and extremist lunatic.

I'll take a Bible thumping lawyer over a loony crypto Nazi failed scam artist any day.

Last night's results have either made an actual knock-out of any candidate unlikely or has delayed its certainty until this coming Tuesday.

Clearly, the big news was Sanders' surprise win in Michigan. It has changed his likely eventual losing a tad less (Clinton actually increased her delegate lead last night) but it has made the possibility of him being knocked out very low. He needs a win of one of the big three next week (OH, IL, FL) or a close finish to completely avoid any chance of a knockout, but it is now true that Clinton also needs at least two of those big three to avoid her own knock out.

What's most likely now is there will not be any knock out of either candidate all the way to the convention. Moreover, the likelihood of one candidate just hanging in as a powerful zombie to impact the Party's platform has diminished. It looks most likely we'll have a slow uncertain grind the rest of the way, with the eventual winner likely known before the convention but not until some of the later states - that could be as early as NY on April 19 or as late as CA on June 7. Pessimistically, this could do substantial damage to the eventual Dem nominee and to the Dems' chances to take back the Senate. The damage could be compounded should Trump knockout his nomination opposition and can turn his attention to devastating attacks on both Clinton and Sanders. Optimistically, this could hone the candidates, ala that-which-does-not-kill-you-makes-you-stronger - Clinton obviously needs a better response to Sanders' trade deal attacks; Sanders' obviously needs to expand his appeal with minorities.

On the GOP side, many are writing off Rubio and probable for good reason. The knockout will, however, have to await next Tuesday Florida vote or Rubio dropping out beforehand. There's lots of behind-the-scenes negotiations with Rubio by both Trump and Cruz people to see if there is anything they can offer him, but I just don't see it happening just one week out. If he does, he needs to do it today and use the excuse of last night's results, otherwise he's not going to look pragmatic, he's going to look desperate to maintain some semblance of potential for a 2018 run at the FL governorship - he does not want to go back to the Senate. Even if Rubio wins Florida, he will be just seen now as one of the tools in the toolbox to stop Trump not as a standalone viable candidate at a brokered convention. That does, in fact, make him knocked out already.

Kasich is the one who if he wins his home state of Ohio on Tuesday could be seen as a standalone alternative to Trump at a brokered convention. His third place result in Michigan last night, however, does not bode well. I'll not knock him out until we see the result in Ohio, but even a win there will have to be followed up either that same night in IL or soon after such as WI on April 5 or PA on April 26. Without a Trump implosion, its doubtful.

Cruz's closing the gap a tad with last week's wins was more than erased by Trump's victories last night. Cruz has done his job as Trump's wingman, denying any traction for an Establishment candidate. The road gets tougher for Cruz from here, somewhat offset by Rubio dropping out. His viability as the alternative at the convention actually depends on Kasich and Rubio stopping Trump in their home states next week; without that, I believe he will be knocked out along with them.

More than likely, Trump will have knocked out his opponents by this coming Tuesday. He will be free, starting a week from now, to turn his attention to taking down Clinton and Sanders. Primary losses or debate mistakes by either Dem candidate will be greatly magnified and aimed by Trump at the very people Clinton and Sanders are fighting over - working class Whites. It will be both interesting to see if a Trump strategy emerges to help set up one or the other of the two Dems for the general and to see how the two Dems respond of either calming the waters between them or handing Trump the ammunition to destroy the other. In particular, I would watch for him to start laying the groundwork for who will raise, and who will cut (him), those taxes that the working class Whites have to pay.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

Uh, it's a 2 way street, there Eric.
Let's go back to the early 1980's.

1. Why are most of the Republican presidential candidates X'ers? Easy, the Republican party from Reagan all the way down actively courted the youth vote then. There was no finger wagging or lectures.
2. The planks on the platform appealed to the young Xer desires for less government and affirmed the individual over all else. I'll be the first to admit that that wasn't always in the Xer best interest. Exhibit A would be student loans instead of public funding. So, there was an implicit trade off between public funding and independence. There was also an implicit referendum on the 1970's. S&H mentioned that aspect by saying Xer's slammed the "R" lever to send a message. No More 1970's.
3. The Democratic party didn't even lift a finger to counter this. I see the same thing going on now wrt Millies. We Democrats seem stuck on identity politics. Sorry, that hound don't hunt no more. The Millies need an option to say No More 2000's. Bernie's the only one that's got that message. I mean really, our party hacks need to start thinking more.

Rags, I think it's actually just that age old problem of youth having trouble with math.

You have one candidate promising 102% of what the Millies want; you have another promising a negative 503%. Then there's the third candidate offering 66%. The Millies lose their 102% candidate so they stay home on election night and do things that cause hair to grow on their palms. We all get their -503% candidate as President.

Why?

Like I said, they have problems with math.

It wouldn't be so bad except that it also comes with all their incessant whining over the next four years

Hillary Clinton vs. the four remaining Republican candidates after some polls of FLORIDA, OHIO, Michigan, and New Jersey.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

I am tempted to believe that Marco Rubio is out of it next week. Floridians are figuring Donald Trump out.

Republican nominees for President have not won the Presidency without Ohio for a very long time. (Nixon won Ohio in 1960 and still lost).

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Hillary Clinton vs. the four remaining Republican candidates after some polls of FLORIDA, OHIO, Michigan, and New Jersey.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

I am tempted to believe that Marco Rubio is out of it next week. Floridians are figuring Donald Trump out.

Republican nominees for President have not won the Presidency without Ohio for a very long time. (Nixon won Ohio in 1960 and still lost).

Irony - true stategery geared toward November would actually have a heavier hand trying to usher Trump out of the GOP race and meanwhile Clinton and Sanders would quietly begin to adopt a joint ticket, with whomever got more delegates being the POTUS candidate and the lesser the Veep. Far be it for today's sad excuses for parties to actually do those sorts of things. No, we'd rather enjoy our political UFC. Are the parties themselves now whores for ratings and clicks?

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

Irony - true stategery geared toward November would actually have a heavier hand trying to usher Trump out of the GOP race and meanwhile Clinton and Sanders would quietly begin to adopt a joint ticket, with whomever got more delegates being the POTUS candidate and the lesser the Veep. Far be it for today's sad excuses for parties to actually do those sorts of things. No, we'd rather enjoy our political UFC. Are the parties themselves now whores for ratings and clicks?

One theory is that after eight years of one Presidential style, Americans are ready for something different. Barack Obama is a cautious, chilly rationalist with more faith in legal precedent than in political passion. He keeps his speeches short and clear. He keeps his emotions under constraint.

Donald Trump could hardly be more different. But in his difference he rejects the virtues of the current President. The transition from a good President to another good President (as with Eisenhower to Kennedy) is possible if the difference is almost entirely of style. Barack Obama may be more like Dwight Eisenhower than any later President (the generational theory fits, with Dwight Eisenhower as a sexagenarian Reactive and Barack Obama acting like a sexagenarian Reactive). But Donald Trump is no JFK, an ebullient rationalist instead of a chilly rationalist.

American political life is badly debased, probably because our culture (think of Ultimate Fighting) is itself debased. What we can tolerate in entertainment and what we need in politics are very different things.

CNN did not poll Florida or Ohio about Sanders.

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

Originally Posted by playwrite

Well, you just sit back and watch them once again get sold on the promise of magic ponies that poop out potions for all the ails, and just wait for the disappoint. That can be when their magic pony-promising candidate loses the nomination so they stay home in the general and we get invasions, economic distress and human rights crushed. Or their candidate makes it all the way to the White House but can only deliver non-magical ponies that poop the usual; they stay home for the mid-terms and we get government shutdowns, debt crisis, and a go nowhere economy and country. Either way, you hope a few of them come around with that teachable moment and you move on. Maybe a third time will be the charm for this generation.

Posit a viable alternative then. The current youth vote will be the mainline vote in another 10 years or so. If they fail to ignite, the political system will rot. Note I say 'rot', not 'collapse', because there are always a few who will stay engaged. Unfortunately, the most likely to do that are the ones least likely to be civic minded.

Look at the motivators: love (weak), compassion (weak), idealism (weak to mildly strong), greed (strong), fear (strong) and anger (very strong). Who wins is the one who can channel the fear and anger. It's depressing, but history tells us that this is typically the way it is. Apparently, we aren't there yet.

Those of you who say, "young people like us who voted for Bernie, would not vote for Hillary; we'll stay home and not vote" should consider, you really want Donald J Trump as your president? Or even Ted Cruz?

Consider this: you probably voted enthusiastically for Barack Obama in 2008. You were disappointed. Now you want Bernie. But he will disappoint you too. Because no politician can give you everything you want. Bernie won't either. You'll be staying home if he runs again in 2020 or 2024, and your next hero isn't nominated. If you voted for Barack Obama, then you'll be getting him again if you vote for Bernie. You might as well support his successor who will continue his policies, Hillary Clinton, if she is the nominee; not stay home and effectively vote for Ted Cruz.

This year, you are not only voting for president, you are directly voting for the Supreme Court. This election's impact will therefore last for a generation or more. Do you want citizens united to continue to be the law of the land? Do you want global warming to get even worse? Then vote for who will succeed the arch-reactionary Scalia. Your vote counts! You are voting for Senate and Congress. You are voting for state officials. There are issues on the ballot too. Do you civic duty, civic generation! Vote!

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

I'll take a Bible thumping lawyer over a loony crypto Nazi failed scam artist any day.

He not only thumps the Bible, he thumps our environment. He thumps our economy and cements the .1% in control. He thumps voting rights and democracy. He thumps hopes for peace in the world.

Thump Trump. And close Cruz.

It doesn't matter whom the GOP nominates. It only matters that they lose the general.

#neverRepublican

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

He not only thumps the Bible, he thumps our environment. He thumps our economy and cements the .1% in control. He thumps voting rights and democracy. He thumps hopes for peace in the world.

Thump Trump. And close Cruz.

It doesn't matter whom the GOP nominates. It only matters that they lose the general.

#neverRepublican

You may despise his polity but Cruz is not a Nazi. He could even be part of a future Regeneracy Anti Nazi group. I would rather take a chance on having a "Social Conservative" with neo con tendencies, than a Nazi. Hope as we might for a GOP candidate who can defeat Trump and who is our cup of tea relatively speaking, that is not going to happen in this election. The choice is now down to Trump or Cruz. I would like to eliminate the possibility of a Trump Presidency prior to the General. The risk of any other Primary outcome is not worth it.