Once in a very long while ideals and reality intersect.
It makes you wonder about some of the other polls, especially in that part of the world.
Next time: it's Bersonal.
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Once in a very long while ideals and reality intersect.
It makes you wonder about some of the other polls, especially in that part of the world.
Next time: it's Bersonal.
"Jan, cut the crap."
"It's just a donut."
Kasich like Snyder is a governor who presided over the lead poisoning of poor Ohioans, white as well as black. I hope Bernie will point that out in the next week. He might be able to get some independents who might otherwise vote for Kasich, since Ohio has an open primary.Originally Posted by pbrower2a
Yes. Like Rahm Emannuel.
That works both ways. A Trump that wins the Republican nomination relatively early is open to attrition from both Hillary and Sanders. Hillary would be the only Establishment candidate left of either party. But Sanders can appeal to blue collar whites (which he proved last night) because of his steadfast opposition to trade deals. So it wouldn't surprise me if Trump starts to plateau or see his turnout drop off after he has secured enough delegates for the nomination while Dem turnout increases. Trump clinching the nomination early might actually work in Sander's favour. It is Sanders more than anyone else who can give Donald Trump his Joe McCarthy moment by asking voters if they can trust either Hillary or Trump.
If Sanders should keep the Obama coalition and add white working-class people, then he wins a landslide. Democrats could then conceivably win the House.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Indeed. Hillary's African-American supporters will join with Sanders if Sanders wins. Many Sanders supporters will NOT support Hillary if she wins. http://usuncut.com/politics/sanders-supporters/. One way or another, Americans want these trade agreements gone.
I use a new post for this map because someone used my prior map in a post. OK. A new poll for Pennsylvania confirms what other polls of some midwestern states suggest for Pennsylvania: that Pennsylvania will not go at the least for Cruz, Rubio, or Trump. The last polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was reeling from the server and Benghazi investigations. She isn't reeling from that now. I show it because the state is Pennsylvania, allegedly a swing state this year.
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)
Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich
Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
The GOP has in fact gone bat shit insane, that was not an exaggeration.
So let's see. Trump is going to knock out the one GOP candidate who could win FLA in the general, in FLA!
That is definitely bat shit insane.
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#nevertrump
I blame the Republicans for blatantly stealing the election.
I repeat, NO POLITICIAN IS ENTITLED TO ANYONE'S VOTE, If we don't vote it is the party's and the politicians' fault for sucking.
You are blinded by your narrow-minded, simplistic partisanship. You see politics as if it were a game and everything will be fine as long as "our team" wins and those evil people over there lose. REALTY CHECK, plenty of the people on "our team" are actually on the same side as those horrible terrible people on the other team.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
I guess you take your choice. 6 of one, half a dozen of another half baked creeps.
Or give Cruz his, since he actually IS Joe McCarthy. It is interesting that he is polling better in Wisconsin than other states in the north. I guess the Republicans there recognize their own.
No way is DJT going to win Nevada!Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
Paucity of polls. My map is based upon quantitative data -- polls.
It is also unlikely that Kentucky will be close, barring a complete collapse of his campaign.
I look at this map and see a result similar to those of either 2008 or 2012, except without the extremely poor performances of Obama in the Deep and Mountain South. Obama won much like Reagan in 2008 where he won and lost like McGovern where he lost, on the whole.
Also intriguing are the low approval ratings for incumbent Senate Republicans across regions.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
I'll endorse this. The Dems have been sucky since the DLC took charge.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
From your mouth to God's ear!
No, there is also the McGovern influence since 1972. It remains; the Awakening remains.
I agree. But talking about the DLC's positions is like the guy who jumped into the cactus patch. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
In the 80s, the breakout candidate who pioneered many of the DLC's positions was the early Clinton clone, Gary Hart. Remember his "new ideas" campaign against Walter Mondale in '84. Hart (who had the same sexual issues Bill Clinton did too) sounded like the Bernie Sanders of his day to remember the hype, but his positions against the union backed Mondale were very much what we call "New Democrat", a position that had a lot of credibility in the 80s when Dems kept losing the White House to Reagan and Bush.
Now, a generation and an Unravelling later, new is now old and we see the result of neo-liberal policies. We didn't think we could go back to the 1920s then. Guess what? We did!
Indeed. Anyone remember that the 2006 push to criminalise illegal presence in the US was spearheaded by Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin?
Interesting factoid about Wisconsin: That state has the highest proportion of Americans of German descent than anywhere else in the union.
Nah; I don't think anyone's finger wagging or lack thereof had anything to do with it. If anything, Reagan was wagging his finger at welfare queens and communists, and Xers grew up on those finger wags and absorbed it without thought, since it didn't require them to put their lives on the line the way LBJ's finger wagging did of boomers. So they just accepted it because it appealed to the natural materialism and individualism of nomads.
Too bad; 1970s was good, but not maybe for them.2. The planks on the platform appealed to the young Xer desires for less government and affirmed the individual over all else. I'll be the first to admit that that wasn't always in the Xer best interest. Exhibit A would be student loans instead of public funding. So, there was an implicit trade off between public funding and independence. There was also an implicit referendum on the 1970's. S&H mentioned that aspect by saying Xer's slammed the "R" lever to send a message. No More 1970's.
Hillary seems to benefiting from it in southern primaries; so different messages for different candidates; different strokes for different folks (as we used to say, ya know, back in the 70s3. The Democratic party didn't even lift a finger to counter this. I see the same thing going on now wrt Millies. We Democrats seem stuck on identity politics. Sorry, that hound don't hunt no more. The Millies need an option to say No More 2000's. Bernie's the only one that's got that message. I mean really, our party hacks need to start thinking more.) I think both candidates are doing good jobs. Now it's up to voters to do theirs. I hope they do! That means voting for one or the other of them, all year long.
It starts to look a bit more like Obama's map. Remember one thing. These polls are based on people who still have land lines and haven't "cut the cord" to cellphones. That's why polls are less and less accurate and are skewed to older voters. It's why the polls totally misjudged Bernie's support in Michigan. And something like a third of Bernie voters won't support Hillary over Trump. Including Camille Paglia, apparently. http://www.salon.com/2016/03/10/i_wa...tuousness_too/I use a new post for this map because someone used my prior map in a post. OK. A new poll for Pennsylvania confirms what other polls of some midwestern states suggest for Pennsylvania: that Pennsylvania will not go at the least for Cruz, Rubio, or Trump. The last polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was reeling from the server and Benghazi investigations. She isn't reeling from that now. I show it because the state is Pennsylvania, allegedly a swing state this year.
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)
Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich
Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
I do. But some people may find the Sanders' program too disruptive. I agree with those programs, but I find myself a bit afraid of the American people, whether they will support him in his proposals to ditch trade deals, break up banks, tax the rich, etc. It is a big change from the way we have been going. I'm all for it, but I'm less optimistic about the American people. How many of them are really feeling the bern and ready to embrace the anti-Establishment approach? Will the 4T mood take hold? Most of the usual voters or potential voters in November have not been voting in the primaries, so it may be hard to tell; although I suppose they have answered opinion polls. Am I being an old boomer nervous nellie?
I don't think these polls are based on land lines that much anymore. Maybe the Rasmussen poll is, but there aren't that many people on land lines anymore. You have to go cell phone. But I don't know how they do it. Polls are less accurate than before, but sometimes they are still right on the money.
Yes, and the question now is, have we arrived in the 1930s yet?
Sure, but the polls I see on wikipedia show the latest for Nevada which has Trump losing.
I don't know where you find your polls. Trade secret I guess
Perhaps. Remember, none of us on this list have experienced a true shift from 3T to 4T so we don't know what it's like. Unlike a shift from 1T to 2T which is about the opening of possibilities during a high or 2T to 3T which is about expanded individualism, the shift from 3T to 4T is traumatic, like an earthquake and are about problems that HAVE TO BE SOLVED NOW! That's why it's a Crisis.
In 1928, Herbert Hoover could win an election by prattling on against Al Smith over "Rum, Romanism and Rebellion the way John McCain and Sarah Palin savaged Obama in 2008 (unsuccessfully) or the way Bush swiftboated John Kerry in 2004. Four years later, FDR sweeps everything before him and goes on to give the Dems the White House for an unprecedented five terms (20 years). Totally different. And before that, even Republicans had to pass the protectionist Hawley-Smoot Tariff--which Roosevelt claimed to regret during WWII but which he did not attempt to tamper with in office.