Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: US elections, 2016 - Page 113







Post#2801 at 03-09-2016 04:57 PM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
---
03-09-2016, 04:57 PM #2801
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
1,731

Once in a very long while ideals and reality intersect.

It makes you wonder about some of the other polls, especially in that part of the world.

Next time: it's Bersonal.
"Jan, cut the crap."

"It's just a donut."







Post#2802 at 03-09-2016 05:25 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-09-2016, 05:25 PM #2802
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Kasich is doing sort-of-OK in Michigan. Rubio is beginning to get results similar to those of Jeb Bush and Ben Carson... he's going down.

I know how partisan I am, so to maintain credibility I must back my opinions with quantitative data. I have long thought of him as the sort of person whose level of competence is being a State legislator in a district tailored to him. He's beginning to look like a modern version of a Greek tragedy: he has some successes, overreaches, and gets ruined. But it is 'ruined', and not destroyed. He is no Icarus who flew too close to the Sun and then crashed to Earth. America is not Mount Olympus.

Florida voters caught onto him before the rest of us did. Let him savor his few political victories, and recollect the delegates that he got committed to him. Such is an achievement that few of us will ever have.
Kasich like Snyder is a governor who presided over the lead poisoning of poor Ohioans, white as well as black. I hope Bernie will point that out in the next week. He might be able to get some independents who might otherwise vote for Kasich, since Ohio has an open primary.







Post#2803 at 03-09-2016 05:27 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-09-2016, 05:27 PM #2803
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
There will be more politicians to go down for this. Not all will be Republicans.

Right and wrong do not have partisan labels .
Yes. Like Rahm Emannuel.







Post#2804 at 03-09-2016 05:41 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-09-2016, 05:41 PM #2804
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Last night's results have either made an actual knock-out of any candidate unlikely or has delayed its certainty until this coming Tuesday.

Clearly, the big news was Sanders' surprise win in Michigan. It has changed his likely eventual losing a tad less (Clinton actually increased her delegate lead last night) but it has made the possibility of him being knocked out very low. He needs a win of one of the big three next week (OH, IL, FL) or a close finish to completely avoid any chance of a knockout, but it is now true that Clinton also needs at least two of those big three to avoid her own knock out.

What's most likely now is there will not be any knock out of either candidate all the way to the convention. Moreover, the likelihood of one candidate just hanging in as a powerful zombie to impact the Party's platform has diminished. It looks most likely we'll have a slow uncertain grind the rest of the way, with the eventual winner likely known before the convention but not until some of the later states - that could be as early as NY on April 19 or as late as CA on June 7. Pessimistically, this could do substantial damage to the eventual Dem nominee and to the Dems' chances to take back the Senate. The damage could be compounded should Trump knockout his nomination opposition and can turn his attention to devastating attacks on both Clinton and Sanders. Optimistically, this could hone the candidates, ala that-which-does-not-kill-you-makes-you-stronger - Clinton obviously needs a better response to Sanders' trade deal attacks; Sanders' obviously needs to expand his appeal with minorities.

On the GOP side, many are writing off Rubio and probable for good reason. The knockout will, however, have to await next Tuesday Florida vote or Rubio dropping out beforehand. There's lots of behind-the-scenes negotiations with Rubio by both Trump and Cruz people to see if there is anything they can offer him, but I just don't see it happening just one week out. If he does, he needs to do it today and use the excuse of last night's results, otherwise he's not going to look pragmatic, he's going to look desperate to maintain some semblance of potential for a 2018 run at the FL governorship - he does not want to go back to the Senate. Even if Rubio wins Florida, he will be just seen now as one of the tools in the toolbox to stop Trump not as a standalone viable candidate at a brokered convention. That does, in fact, make him knocked out already.

Kasich is the one who if he wins his home state of Ohio on Tuesday could be seen as a standalone alternative to Trump at a brokered convention. His third place result in Michigan last night, however, does not bode well. I'll not knock him out until we see the result in Ohio, but even a win there will have to be followed up either that same night in IL or soon after such as WI on April 5 or PA on April 26. Without a Trump implosion, its doubtful.

Cruz's closing the gap a tad with last week's wins was more than erased by Trump's victories last night. Cruz has done his job as Trump's wingman, denying any traction for an Establishment candidate. The road gets tougher for Cruz from here, somewhat offset by Rubio dropping out. His viability as the alternative at the convention actually depends on Kasich and Rubio stopping Trump in their home states next week; without that, I believe he will be knocked out along with them.

More than likely, Trump will have knocked out his opponents by this coming Tuesday. He will be free, starting a week from now, to turn his attention to taking down Clinton and Sanders. Primary losses or debate mistakes by either Dem candidate will be greatly magnified and aimed by Trump at the very people Clinton and Sanders are fighting over - working class Whites. It will be both interesting to see if a Trump strategy emerges to help set up one or the other of the two Dems for the general and to see how the two Dems respond of either calming the waters between them or handing Trump the ammunition to destroy the other. In particular, I would watch for him to start laying the groundwork for who will raise, and who will cut (him), those taxes that the working class Whites have to pay.
That works both ways. A Trump that wins the Republican nomination relatively early is open to attrition from both Hillary and Sanders. Hillary would be the only Establishment candidate left of either party. But Sanders can appeal to blue collar whites (which he proved last night) because of his steadfast opposition to trade deals. So it wouldn't surprise me if Trump starts to plateau or see his turnout drop off after he has secured enough delegates for the nomination while Dem turnout increases. Trump clinching the nomination early might actually work in Sander's favour. It is Sanders more than anyone else who can give Donald Trump his Joe McCarthy moment by asking voters if they can trust either Hillary or Trump.







Post#2805 at 03-09-2016 05:59 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
---
03-09-2016, 05:59 PM #2805
Join Date
May 2005
Location
"Michigrim"
Posts
15,014

Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
That works both ways. A Trump that wins the Republican nomination relatively early is open to attrition from both Hillary and Sanders. Hillary would be the only Establishment candidate left of either party. But Sanders can appeal to blue collar whites (which he proved last night) because of his steadfast opposition to trade deals. So it wouldn't surprise me if Trump starts to plateau or see his turnout drop off after he has secured enough delegates for the nomination while Dem turnout increases. Trump clinching the nomination early might actually work in Sander's favour. It is Sanders more than anyone else who can give Donald Trump his Joe McCarthy moment by asking voters if they can trust either Hillary or Trump.
If Sanders should keep the Obama coalition and add white working-class people, then he wins a landslide. Democrats could then conceivably win the House.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#2806 at 03-09-2016 06:53 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-09-2016, 06:53 PM #2806
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
If Sanders should keep the Obama coalition and add white working-class people, then he wins a landslide. Democrats could then conceivably win the House.
Indeed. Hillary's African-American supporters will join with Sanders if Sanders wins. Many Sanders supporters will NOT support Hillary if she wins. http://usuncut.com/politics/sanders-supporters/. One way or another, Americans want these trade agreements gone.







Post#2807 at 03-09-2016 07:05 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
---
03-09-2016, 07:05 PM #2807
Join Date
May 2005
Location
"Michigrim"
Posts
15,014

I use a new post for this map because someone used my prior map in a post. OK. A new poll for Pennsylvania confirms what other polls of some midwestern states suggest for Pennsylvania: that Pennsylvania will not go at the least for Cruz, Rubio, or Trump. The last polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was reeling from the server and Benghazi investigations. She isn't reeling from that now. I show it because the state is Pennsylvania, allegedly a swing state this year.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#2808 at 03-09-2016 08:14 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
---
03-09-2016, 08:14 PM #2808
Join Date
Nov 2012
Posts
3,073

The GOP has in fact gone bat shit insane, that was not an exaggeration.

So let's see. Trump is going to knock out the one GOP candidate who could win FLA in the general, in FLA!

That is definitely bat shit insane.
==========================================

#nevertrump







Post#2809 at 03-09-2016 08:27 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
---
03-09-2016, 08:27 PM #2809
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Moorhead, MN, USA
Posts
14,442

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
I will continue to blame the morons who voted for Ralph Nader in 2000
I blame the Republicans for blatantly stealing the election.

I repeat, NO POLITICIAN IS ENTITLED TO ANYONE'S VOTE, If we don't vote it is the party's and the politicians' fault for sucking.

You are blinded by your narrow-minded, simplistic partisanship. You see politics as if it were a game and everything will be fine as long as "our team" wins and those evil people over there lose. REALTY CHECK, plenty of the people on "our team" are actually on the same side as those horrible terrible people on the other team.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#2810 at 03-10-2016 02:09 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 02:09 AM #2810
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
You may despise his polity but Cruz is not a Nazi. He could even be part of a future Regeneracy Anti Nazi group. I would rather take a chance on having a "Social Conservative" with neo con tendencies, than a Nazi. Hope as we might for a GOP candidate who can defeat Trump and who is our cup of tea relatively speaking, that is not going to happen in this election. The choice is now down to Trump or Cruz. I would like to eliminate the possibility of a Trump Presidency prior to the General. The risk of any other Primary outcome is not worth it.
I guess you take your choice. 6 of one, half a dozen of another half baked creeps.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2811 at 03-10-2016 02:12 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 02:12 AM #2811
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
It is Sanders more than anyone else who can give Donald Trump his Joe McCarthy moment by asking voters if they can trust either Hillary or Trump.
Or give Cruz his, since he actually IS Joe McCarthy. It is interesting that he is polling better in Wisconsin than other states in the north. I guess the Republicans there recognize their own.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2812 at 03-10-2016 02:13 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 02:13 AM #2812
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
No way is DJT going to win Nevada!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2813 at 03-10-2016 09:10 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
---
03-10-2016, 09:10 AM #2813
Join Date
May 2005
Location
"Michigrim"
Posts
15,014

Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
No way is DJT going to win Nevada!
Paucity of polls. My map is based upon quantitative data -- polls.

It is also unlikely that Kentucky will be close, barring a complete collapse of his campaign.

I look at this map and see a result similar to those of either 2008 or 2012, except without the extremely poor performances of Obama in the Deep and Mountain South. Obama won much like Reagan in 2008 where he won and lost like McGovern where he lost, on the whole.

Also intriguing are the low approval ratings for incumbent Senate Republicans across regions.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#2814 at 03-10-2016 04:29 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
03-10-2016, 04:29 PM #2814
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I blame the Republicans for blatantly stealing the election.

I repeat, NO POLITICIAN IS ENTITLED TO ANYONE'S VOTE, If we don't vote it is the party's and the politicians' fault for sucking.

You are blinded by your narrow-minded, simplistic partisanship. You see politics as if it were a game and everything will be fine as long as "our team" wins and those evil people over there lose. REALTY CHECK, plenty of the people on "our team" are actually on the same side as those horrible terrible people on the other team.
I'll endorse this. The Dems have been sucky since the DLC took charge.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#2815 at 03-10-2016 04:35 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-10-2016, 04:35 PM #2815
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
If Sanders should keep the Obama coalition and add white working-class people, then he wins a landslide. Democrats could then conceivably win the House.
From your mouth to God's ear!







Post#2816 at 03-10-2016 04:38 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 04:38 PM #2816
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
I'll endorse this. The Dems have been sucky since the DLC took charge.
No, there is also the McGovern influence since 1972. It remains; the Awakening remains.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2817 at 03-10-2016 04:42 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-10-2016, 04:42 PM #2817
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
I'll endorse this. The Dems have been sucky since the DLC took charge.
I agree. But talking about the DLC's positions is like the guy who jumped into the cactus patch. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
In the 80s, the breakout candidate who pioneered many of the DLC's positions was the early Clinton clone, Gary Hart. Remember his "new ideas" campaign against Walter Mondale in '84. Hart (who had the same sexual issues Bill Clinton did too) sounded like the Bernie Sanders of his day to remember the hype, but his positions against the union backed Mondale were very much what we call "New Democrat", a position that had a lot of credibility in the 80s when Dems kept losing the White House to Reagan and Bush.
Now, a generation and an Unravelling later, new is now old and we see the result of neo-liberal policies. We didn't think we could go back to the 1920s then. Guess what? We did!







Post#2818 at 03-10-2016 04:44 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-10-2016, 04:44 PM #2818
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Or give Cruz his, since he actually IS Joe McCarthy. It is interesting that he is polling better in Wisconsin than other states in the north. I guess the Republicans there recognize their own.
Indeed. Anyone remember that the 2006 push to criminalise illegal presence in the US was spearheaded by Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin?
Interesting factoid about Wisconsin: That state has the highest proportion of Americans of German descent than anywhere else in the union.







Post#2819 at 03-10-2016 04:47 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 04:47 PM #2819
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62 View Post
Uh, it's a 2 way street, there Eric.
Let's go back to the early 1980's.

1. Why are most of the Republican presidential candidates X'ers? Easy, the Republican party from Reagan all the way down actively courted the youth vote then. There was no finger wagging or lectures.
Nah; I don't think anyone's finger wagging or lack thereof had anything to do with it. If anything, Reagan was wagging his finger at welfare queens and communists, and Xers grew up on those finger wags and absorbed it without thought, since it didn't require them to put their lives on the line the way LBJ's finger wagging did of boomers. So they just accepted it because it appealed to the natural materialism and individualism of nomads.
2. The planks on the platform appealed to the young Xer desires for less government and affirmed the individual over all else. I'll be the first to admit that that wasn't always in the Xer best interest. Exhibit A would be student loans instead of public funding. So, there was an implicit trade off between public funding and independence. There was also an implicit referendum on the 1970's. S&H mentioned that aspect by saying Xer's slammed the "R" lever to send a message. No More 1970's.
Too bad; 1970s was good, but not maybe for them.
3. The Democratic party didn't even lift a finger to counter this. I see the same thing going on now wrt Millies. We Democrats seem stuck on identity politics. Sorry, that hound don't hunt no more. The Millies need an option to say No More 2000's. Bernie's the only one that's got that message. I mean really, our party hacks need to start thinking more.
Hillary seems to benefiting from it in southern primaries; so different messages for different candidates; different strokes for different folks (as we used to say, ya know, back in the 70s ) I think both candidates are doing good jobs. Now it's up to voters to do theirs. I hope they do! That means voting for one or the other of them, all year long.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2820 at 03-10-2016 04:51 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-10-2016, 04:51 PM #2820
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
I use a new post for this map because someone used my prior map in a post. OK. A new poll for Pennsylvania confirms what other polls of some midwestern states suggest for Pennsylvania: that Pennsylvania will not go at the least for Cruz, Rubio, or Trump. The last polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was reeling from the server and Benghazi investigations. She isn't reeling from that now. I show it because the state is Pennsylvania, allegedly a swing state this year.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
It starts to look a bit more like Obama's map. Remember one thing. These polls are based on people who still have land lines and haven't "cut the cord" to cellphones. That's why polls are less and less accurate and are skewed to older voters. It's why the polls totally misjudged Bernie's support in Michigan. And something like a third of Bernie voters won't support Hillary over Trump. Including Camille Paglia, apparently. http://www.salon.com/2016/03/10/i_wa...tuousness_too/







Post#2821 at 03-10-2016 04:53 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 04:53 PM #2821
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
Indeed. Hillary's African-American supporters will join with Sanders if Sanders wins. Many Sanders supporters will NOT support Hillary if she wins. http://usuncut.com/politics/sanders-supporters/. One way or another, Americans want these trade agreements gone.
I do. But some people may find the Sanders' program too disruptive. I agree with those programs, but I find myself a bit afraid of the American people, whether they will support him in his proposals to ditch trade deals, break up banks, tax the rich, etc. It is a big change from the way we have been going. I'm all for it, but I'm less optimistic about the American people. How many of them are really feeling the bern and ready to embrace the anti-Establishment approach? Will the 4T mood take hold? Most of the usual voters or potential voters in November have not been voting in the primaries, so it may be hard to tell; although I suppose they have answered opinion polls. Am I being an old boomer nervous nellie?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2822 at 03-10-2016 04:55 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 04:55 PM #2822
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
It starts to look a bit more like Obama's map. Remember one thing. These polls are based on people who still have land lines and haven't "cut the cord" to cellphones. That's why polls are less and less accurate and are skewed to older voters. It's why the polls totally misjudged Bernie's support in Michigan. And something like a third of Bernie voters won't support Hillary over Trump. Including Camille Paglia, apparently. http://www.salon.com/2016/03/10/i_wa...tuousness_too/
I don't think these polls are based on land lines that much anymore. Maybe the Rasmussen poll is, but there aren't that many people on land lines anymore. You have to go cell phone. But I don't know how they do it. Polls are less accurate than before, but sometimes they are still right on the money.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2823 at 03-10-2016 04:58 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 04:58 PM #2823
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by MordecaiK View Post
I agree. But talking about the DLC's positions is like the guy who jumped into the cactus patch. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
In the 80s, the breakout candidate who pioneered many of the DLC's positions was the early Clinton clone, Gary Hart. Remember his "new ideas" campaign against Walter Mondale in '84. Hart (who had the same sexual issues Bill Clinton did too) sounded like the Bernie Sanders of his day to remember the hype, but his positions against the union backed Mondale were very much what we call "New Democrat", a position that had a lot of credibility in the 80s when Dems kept losing the White House to Reagan and Bush.
Now, a generation and an Unravelling later, new is now old and we see the result of neo-liberal policies. We didn't think we could go back to the 1920s then. Guess what? We did!
Yes, and the question now is, have we arrived in the 1930s yet?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2824 at 03-10-2016 05:01 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
---
03-10-2016, 05:01 PM #2824
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
San Jose CA
Posts
22,504

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Paucity of polls. My map is based upon quantitative data -- polls.
Sure, but the polls I see on wikipedia show the latest for Nevada which has Trump losing.

I don't know where you find your polls. Trade secret I guess
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#2825 at 03-10-2016 05:03 PM by MordecaiK [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 1,086]
---
03-10-2016, 05:03 PM #2825
Join Date
Mar 2014
Posts
1,086

Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I do. But some people may find the Sanders' program too disruptive. I agree with those programs, but I find myself a bit afraid of the American people, whether they will support him in his proposals to ditch trade deals, break up banks, tax the rich, etc. It is a big change from the way we have been going. I'm all for it, but I'm less optimistic about the American people. How many of them are really feeling the bern and ready to embrace the anti-Establishment approach? Will the 4T mood take hold? Most of the usual voters or potential voters in November have not been voting in the primaries, so it may be hard to tell; although I suppose they have answered opinion polls. Am I being an old boomer nervous nellie?
Perhaps. Remember, none of us on this list have experienced a true shift from 3T to 4T so we don't know what it's like. Unlike a shift from 1T to 2T which is about the opening of possibilities during a high or 2T to 3T which is about expanded individualism, the shift from 3T to 4T is traumatic, like an earthquake and are about problems that HAVE TO BE SOLVED NOW! That's why it's a Crisis.
In 1928, Herbert Hoover could win an election by prattling on against Al Smith over "Rum, Romanism and Rebellion the way John McCain and Sarah Palin savaged Obama in 2008 (unsuccessfully) or the way Bush swiftboated John Kerry in 2004. Four years later, FDR sweeps everything before him and goes on to give the Dems the White House for an unprecedented five terms (20 years). Totally different. And before that, even Republicans had to pass the protectionist Hawley-Smoot Tariff--which Roosevelt claimed to regret during WWII but which he did not attempt to tamper with in office.
-----------------------------------------