Race relations will always be a little strained but will get gradually better, and the coming 4T will be no exception. The main reason is this: how can blonde-haired Aunt Sue remain upset at African Americans when her young nephew (let's say) is born with adorable curly hair and chocolate brown skin? Or copper-colored skin? etc. etc. How can Mrs. Crenshaw remain suspicious and bitterly angry at white people when her daughter brings home a funny, sweet boyfriend who helps do her dishes and take out her trash?

Intermarriages keep happening between latinos and blacks, whites and latinos, and blacks and whites, etc. These marriages are producing stable families with bright, cute, super-achieving kids. The more inter-racial people are walking around, the less race is going to matter. This takes time, painfully slowly even. But we are much farther into this vision of race than we were in, say, 1960. Aw hell what do I know. Of course I could be wrong.

I think the crux of the 4th turning will be between Centralizers and de-Centralizers. It will be the same old theme running through American politics: the anti-Federalists vs. the Federalists; the Whigs vs. the Classical Democrats...maybe even the Celtic culture vs. the Anglo-Saxon culture...or the Coastal People vs. the Mountain People.

I doubt it would be between two highly similar systems of state control. It will nucleate around the old, maybe even most ancient of conflicts.

If Millenarian movements have become an entrenched phenomenon in China than an implication is that the country experiences a rhythm quite unlike the saeculum.

(~*~)

Strauss and Howe have been doing some consulting for Cigna. Here's
the press release:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040302/phtu003_1.html

Press Release Source: CIGNA Retirement & Investment Services

Benefits of 401(k) Plans May Be Lost on New 'Millennial' Generation;
CIGNA Survey Finds 401(k)s Fail to Engage America's Youngest Workers

Tuesday March 2, 10:01 am ET

The New Generation of 'Millennials' Has Values and Beliefs Distinctly
Different From Baby Boomers, Who Design and Administer Today's 401(k)
Plans

Significant Implications for Future Retirement Wealth and Looming
Workforce- Management Issues


HARTFORD, Conn., March 2, 2004 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- America's
primary retirement-savings tool, the 401(k) plan, is failing to engage
America's youngest workers, calling into question the 401(k)'s
long-term contribution to individual wealth and its value to employers
as a tool to attract and retain top talent.

According to CIGNA Retirement & Investment Services' third-annual
Workplace Report on Retirement Planning, fully one-third of
Millennials (individuals born after 1979 and just entering the
workforce) fail to participate in their employer-sponsored 401(k)
plans. This is more than twice the rate of non-participation (16
percent) of the older Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946
and 1956 and soon retiring from the workforce).

The survey also found that Millennials were 19 percent more likely
than older Boomers to label the 401(k) "the benefit of yesterday."
And, perhaps most unsettling, Millennials were 19 percent more likely
to say their 401(k) has little or no effect on their loyalty to
employers.

"Since its inception more than 20 years ago, the 401(k) has been a
critical tool to help Baby Boomers build retirement security, as well
as an effective way to help employers attract and retain top
employees," said John Y. Kim, president of CIGNA Retirement &
Investment Services.

"With the right approach, the 401(k) can still fill these vital roles.
But our survey suggests that the value of the plans, designed and
administered by Baby Boomers to meet their own expectations and needs,
is currently being lost on young Americans now entering the
workforce," he added.

Distinctly different priorities, values and needs

The CIGNA survey indicates that the failure of the 401(k) to engage
Millennials is directly related to fundamental differences between the
generations, some of which are linked simply to age; while others
reflect distinctly different values, beliefs, and needs.

For example, as might be expected of any young worker:

-- More than half of Millennials say their top financial concern is
"paying everyday expenses" or "saving for a new house and car."

-- By contrast, the top financial concern among Baby Boomers is
"saving for my retirement" at 37 percent, followed by "paying for my
children's education" (22 percent) and "paying everyday expenses" (15
percent).

Taken alone, these findings help explain why workplace-provided
retirement programs are less attractive to Millennials. But the
complete story requires an understanding of the unique values and
characteristics that define this latest generation of Americans to
enter the workforce.

Different Generations ... Different Values ... Different Approaches to
Saving

In their pioneering study of young adults, Millennials Rising: The
Next Great Generation, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe contend
that Millennials are dramatically different from both Generation X and
the Baby Boomers and embrace beliefs and attitudes more closely
associated with the generation that came of age during World War
II.(1)

According to Strauss and Howe, Millennials:

-- Are extremely practical;
-- Welcome clear rules and guidelines;
-- Display high levels of trust and optimism;
-- Are keenly aware of current events and sensitive to their
surroundings; and
-- Define success in terms of team rather than individual achievement.

It should come as no surprise, then, that the CIGNA survey found:

-- Nearly half of Millennials admit they are living in the moment
rather than imagining a utopian future, with 49 percent reporting
that the phrase "I'm living for today" best describes their
retirement planning state of mind. Baby Boomers were more likely
than Millennials to describe their approach as "I'm an eager beaver"
(35 percent vs. 21 percent).

-- Though only 15 percent of Millennials chose "sunny" to define
their retirement outlook, compared with more than 30 percent of Baby
Boomers, Millennials were twice as optimistic that they'll retire
before age 55.

-- More than 44 percent of Millennials said their feelings about
savings have been negatively affected by political instability in the
world and ongoing reports of corporate malfeasance, compared with only
26 percent of Baby Boomers.

-- Of those from both generations currently enrolled in 401(k) plans,
Millennials were twice as likely to cite "a sense of accomplishment"
as the reason for their participation. Baby Boomers were 41 percent
more likely to cite "a sense of control over their finances."

"There's no question that the 401(k) is competing for Millennial
wallet- share with a wide variety of other financial demands. But the
problem isn't the competition for disposable income, it's the way
401(k) plans are communicated," said Deanna Miller, vice president,
Education and Communications at CIGNA Retirement & Investment
Services.

"The Millennial generation has a distinct set of values - a
perspective on the world that sets it apart from both the Boomers and
from Generation X. Until we incorporate an understanding of those
differences into our 401(k) communication and education efforts, we
run the risk that these plans will fall victim to the more
sophisticated marketing tactics of Madison Avenue and that
Millennials will continue to view the 401(k) as a benefit designed
solely by Baby Boomers for Baby Boomers," she added.

Critical implications for employees ... and for employers

According to Miller, the failure to make 401(k) participation a
meaningful, "must-do" planning option for Millennials carries with it
grave implications, both for the Millennials themselves and for the
employers who rely on the plans to attract the talent they need to
grow their businesses.

"At a time when the future of Social Security is more and more
problematic - the 401(k) has emerged as America's preeminent
retirement savings vehicle, even for Boomers who enjoy the benefits of
traditional defined benefit pension plans," said Miller. "Moreover,
it's simply a fact that the benefits of a 401(k) are maximized the
earlier you begin participation. So, if we can't convince Millennials
to participate effectively and robustly in these plans, we put the
retirement security of an entire generation of Americans at risk."(2)

In addition, noted Miller, as Boomers head into retirement over the
next decade, employers will be asked to compete as never before for an
increasingly smaller talent pool: there simply are not as many workers
available to replace Boomers as they begin to retire. Recent research
by labor economist Anthony Carnevale indicates that this shift in
worker demographics will create a "skilled worker gap" projected to
reach more than 5 million by 2010 and more than 14 million by 2020.

If, as the CIGNA survey data suggest, the 401(k) currently holds less
allure for Millennials, employers will have to rethink how they "sell
and position" their plans.

"From the employer's perspective, the 401(k) is designed to help
ensure the long-term financial security of their employees and to
distinguish the company as an 'employer of choice' in an increasingly
competitive market. If 401(k) plans are poorly marketed to younger
workers, and therefore lose their value to attract and retain
employees, then there are significant risks to the business as well,"
said Miller.

A call to action: the message is the solution

CIGNA suggests the solution does not lie in dramatically restructuring
the 401(k), which remains America's most effective and advantageous
retirement- savings vehicle. Rather, the solution lies in successfully
communicating and "marketing" the benefits of 401(k) participation to
a new generation - a generation with a distinctive worldview and a
unique set of values and needs.

"By changing the way we present 401(k)s to Millennials, we can change
the way they perceive and value them. We can help ensure that the
Millennial generation - a group of young adults with so much promise
and potential - doesn't become a 'lost generation' at the time of
their retirement," Miller said.

(1) Strauss' and Howe's research was the foundation of the 2002
National Summit on Retirement Savings, in Washington, D.C., hosted by
the U.S. Department of Labor, which focused on generational
differences in saving for retirement and how to most effectively
approach each generation. [For more Summit information see link
below.]

(2) For example, if a 25-year-old invests $200 each month for 10
years only, by age 65 (assuming 8 percent return) the total would be
$402,797. If a 35-year-old were to invest $200 each month until age
65, 20 years longer than the 25-year-old, the total would be only
$300,059.

ABOUT THE SURVEY

The "Workplace Report on Retirement Planning III" survey, conducted
by KRC Research, was fielded in October 2003. The survey included
responses from 1,000 employees who are eligible to participate in a
401(k) or other employer sponsored retirement plan through their
benefits package at work. The employee survey has a margin of error
of +/- 3.1 percent at the 95% confidence level.

The total sample consisted of 500 "Older Boomer" and 500 "Millennial"
respondents. Boomer generation was defined as people born between
1946-1956. Millennial generation was defined as those born after
1979. Responses divided by generation subgroup have a margin of error
of +/- 4.4 percent at the 95% confidence level.

* For survey graphs, please click on
http://www.prnewswire.com/cigna/news...04/execsum.ppt.

* For full survey question and answer results, please click on
http://www.prnewswire.com/cigna/news...ullresults.doc.

* For more information about traits of the Boomer and Millennial
generations, click on
http://www.prnewswire.com/cigna/news...4/gensheet.doc.

* For tips on what companies/plan sponsors can do to engage
Millennials, click on
http://www.prnewswire.com/cigna/news.../sponstips.doc.

* For tips on how Millennials can make the most of their 401(k) plans
today, click on
http://www.prnewswire.com/cigna/news...millentips.doc.

* For the brochure from the 2002 National Summit on Retirement
Savings, click on http://www.saversummit.dol.gov/.

CIGNA Retirement & Investment Services, a division of CIGNA
Corporation (NYSE: CI - News), is one of the nation's leading asset
management and retirement services firms. The organization offers
defined benefit, defined contribution and non-qualified plans, either
on a stand-alone basis or as part of a complete retirement solution
customized to the needs of plan sponsors and tailored to the needs of
plan participants. With global invested assets of more than $86
billion, CIGNA Retirement & Investment Services provides retirement
products to approximately 2,500 plan sponsors serving some 1.5
million plan participants through various subsidiaries of CIGNA
Corporation, including Connecticut General Life Insurance Company.
Securities products are offered through CIGNA Financial Services, Inc.
Member NASD/SIPC. Banking products are offered by CIGNA Bank & Trust
Company, FSB.

CIGNA Corporation (NYSE: CI - News) is headquartered in Philadelphia,
and its subsidiaries constitute one of the largest publicly owned
employee benefits organizations in the United States. Its
subsidiaries are major providers of employee benefits offered through
the workplace, including health care products and services; group
life, accident and disability insurance; retirement products and
services; and investment management. As of December 31, 2003, CIGNA
Corporation had consolidated assets of $91 billion and shareholders'
equity of $4.5 billion. Full-year 2003 revenues totaled $18.8 billion.
Web site: http://www.cigna.com.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Source: CIGNA Retirement & Investment Services

Dear Tim,

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

> I noticed that the Taiping Rebellion preceeded the Nationalists
> vs. Communists war by roughly one lifetime, about the length of
> time between two Strauss & Howe Crises.

Actually, it almost precisely began on schedule. The Taiping
Rebellion began in 1851 and the Long March began in 1934, 83 years
later.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

New Generational Dynamics Graphics

I've prepared two new graphics for a presentation I'll be giving, and
I'm posting them here in case they're useful to anyone else.

The first graphic is one I've been wanting to do for a long time --
it shows the major crisis wars in Western and Eastern Europe. It's a
very busy graphic, but it's useful. I only wish I had had room to
add China and Japan.



The second graphic has already been discussed in a message in another
thread. (See
http://fourthturning.com/forums/view...?p=92709#92709 .)



Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com