Originally Posted by Mikebert

So could you formulate some opinions on archetypes for other historical figures like you did for Ethelred? As you can see from the war of the Roses discussions archetypes help give some ideas on generational boundaries which gives another data point for turnings, particular those two turnings down the road when that generation comes to power. Back to the 13th cent I still have some of the auxiliary info (econ stress, unrests, the bldg. index) to help inform dating. For the times of Ethelred (Russian Awakening ca. 996-1024) and the subsequent crisis, none of this is available. It is particularly difficult for the 4T since there is no Awakening kind of stuff to give you a hand, just a mass of political events I already know cannot show turnings by inspection (else they would have been discovered long ago). And boy it is a mess, when you look at France and Italy at this time with all the varied political actors (or Germany a bit later when it has dozens of principalities). England is easier once you have a single Saxon state, partly because its island status insulates it a bit from continental politics.

Gladly. Well, Ethelred was an "easy" one so to speak.

I'm watching The Pillars of the Earth, finished the first episode and starting on the second. It's pretty decent but I have one large quaffle with how they portray Matilda.

I'm noticing how they like to play around with history in it. Calling Matilda, Maude for example, and having Henry I die immediately after Henry II's birth--when in actual history she gave birth to him a few years before. "Maude" is also portrayed as being about a decade younger than her brother William--who is correctly portrayed as having died in the Whiteship disaster in 1120 at 17--when in actuality, Matilda was older than William (by a year) and was Empress of the Holy Roman Empire at the time the Whiteship disaster took place. I looked her up again and Maude is an alternative name for her, but getting the age wrong like that is troublesome and smacks of writers changing history to suit their purpose.

Also, while Henry I did die when Matilda was giving birth, she was giving birth in France to one of Henry II's younger brothers. The reason why they probably changed Matilda's age though, was to up the dramatic question of whether or not Henry I would live long enough for Matilda to marry and produce a son (also probably to keep a younger actress cast). Also in this adaptation it's shown that she immediately begins fighting for her son's right to the throne--when in actuality Matilda was fighting for her own right to the throne as her father made the barons promise (that at least is depicted), and she later switched to fighting for her son's right to the throne after the barons abandoned her.

So, yeah, I'm not liking how they cleaned up Matilda's story--it smacks of making her more innocent and pure. Just perfect for a little pedestal.

~Chas'88

Okay, now that I continue into the fifth episode of The Pillars of the Earth, I find I take issue with this change to Matilda/Maude. They say that she "styles herself" Empress for no good reason. She fucking did have a good reason--she was married to the Holy Roman Emperor, and thus considered herself an Empress for life. I mean, yeah it's still a little meglomaniac, but by messing with her age and taking out the fact she was married to the Holy Roman Emperor prior, the entire meaning of that action is twisted.

~Chas'88

Now that I have an awakening story, I am looking that the political story for the 9th through 11th century, with a focus on Britain right now. One theme present during this time was waves of Viking incursions into Britain:

First Wave 789-807
789 The first Viking attack on England.
793 Vikings attack the monastery at Lindisfarne.
794 Vikings attach the monastery at Yarrow, but fail.
802 Vikings attack the monastery of Columba on the isle Iona of the Hebrides.
805 Vikings attacks the monastery of Columba for the second time.

Interbellum 806-834 (2 raids in 29 years)

Second wave 835-851
835 Vikings invade Sheppey
836 Viking invade Devon
837 Battle of Hingston Down
844 Redwulf King of Northumbria killed during raid
851 Danish invasion defeated at Battle of Ockney

Interbellum 852-864 (0 raids over 13 years)

First Viking bid for mastery of England (865-872)
865 The 'Great Army' invades at East Anglia
866 Army moves into Northumbria, Saxons defeated, puppet king installed
868 A peaceful settlement is reached, Danegeld paid
869 Danes attack East Anglia, King Edmund killed in battle
870 Crowland Abbey destroyed
871 Alfred (871-899) becomes king of Wessex
871 Danes invade Wessex, defeated at Battle of Ashdown
871 Newly-arrived Vking Army defeats West Saxons, Danegeld paid

Alfred stabilizes the situation (872-899)
875 Northumbria becomes Danelaw, York made Danish capital
875 Alfred begins the construction of a small navy
876 Danes defeated in the south
878 Danes renew attacks on Wessex, defeated by Alfred at Edington
879 Alfred builds defensive infrastructure
882 Alfred's new navy attacks 4 Viking ships, two captured
885 Vikings besiege Rochester, Alfred's defenses hold until army drove them off
886 Alfred captures London; it becomes capital; he splits England with Danes
890 Anglo-Saxon Chronicle compiled on orders of Alfred; copies go to abbeys
893 Danish invasion, Edmund defeats Danes at Farnham
895 Danes march west to Chester, are besieged & escape to Wales & loot it

Saxons hold the line until Danes give up (899-937)
899 Edward the Elder (899-924) becomes king
905 Athelwold and Eric the Dane were killed in battle against Edward the Elder
906 Edward gains peace with Northumbria (Danelaw)
910 Edward of Wessex & Ethelred of Mercia defeat Danes at Tettenhall in Staffordshire
912 Athelflaed, Lady of the Mercians, built burhs at Shrewsbury & Bridgenorth
913 Lady Athelflaed fortified the towns of Tamworth and Stafford
914 Lady Athelflaed, founded town of Warwick upon Avon and fortified it.
917 Danes defeated at Battle of Tempsford
925 Aethelstan (924-939) crowned king of Wessex and Mercia
926 Aethelstan marries his sister to Sihtric, the Norse King of York.
927 Sihtric dies, Athelstan drives out Sihtric’s sons; becomes king of Northumbria
930 St. Albans attacked by the Danes
937 Danish invasion, defeated by Athelstan, many Danish nobles killed

Interbellum 940-979 (2 attacks in 40 years)

Second Viking bid for mastery of England (980-1016) Same time as Peace of God movement as associated Awakening (996-1024)
980 Vikings renew raid attacks, possibly testing Ethelred, little impact
988 Battle at Wachet, Danes defeat local Saxon forces, local leader Streonwald killed
991 Viking chief Olaf Tryggvasson, with 93 ships, defeats Saxons at Maldon; Ethelred II pays, 1^st Danegeld of £10,000 to stop Viking attack on London.
992 Ethelred gathered an armada to destroy the Viking army, traitor in his court tipped off the enemy
994 Sven Forkbeard London raid fails, plunders SE coast, £16,000 Danegeld
1000 Aethelred the Unready attacked Strathclyde and Isle of Man.
1001 Danish raids on Sussex and Devon
1002 Ethelred marries Norman Duke’s daughter to strengthen position vs Danes
1002 Danegeld paid; fearful of plots, Ethelred massacres Danes in his service
1003 Wilton and its abbey attacked
1006 Destruction of Walingford by Sven, Reading attacked & burnt
1008 Aethelred ordered England to build a massive fleet of ships
1009 Viking chief Olaf Haraldsson attacks London; destroys London Bridge.
1011 The Vikings capture Canterbury, Danegeld £48,000. Vikings murder Aelfheah, Archbishop of Canterbury
1012 Danegeld paid
1013 Forkbeard & son Knut invade, Ethelred's son Edward sent to Normandy
1013-14 London surrenders, Forkbeard made King, Ethelred goes to Normandy.
1014-15 Forkbeard dies, Knut unsure of ability, leaves England , Ethelred returns
1015-16 Knut back, Ethelred dies, Knut beats son Edmund, who retains Wessex
1016-17 Edmund dies, Knut king of all England, marries Ethelred's widow

The 940-979 interbellum period contains a bit of internal political struggle between the clerical faction supported by the East Anglican nobles and the anti-clerical faction supported by the nobles of Wessex. St. Dunstan (909-988) a major figure during this time

Church reform vs Wessex nobility (940-79)

939 Edmund (939-946) succeeds brother Aethelstan
940 Dunstan appt minister by Edmund, courtiers resent and plot against him. Dunstan to be dismissed when King Edmund has transforming religious experience and relents
943 Edmund appts Dunstan abbot of Glastonbury he installs Benedictine Rule
944 Edmund captures York
946 Eadred (946-955) becomes King of Wessex
Policy of (1) unification/conciliation with the Danish half of the kingdom which had support of East Anglian nobles; (2) firm establishment of royal authority (3) spread of Catholic observance: rebuilding churches, moral reform of the clergy, suppression of the Norse religion.
St. Dunstan was influential during the reign of Eadred. Wessex nobility including most of Eadred’s family opposed to policy. The king’s nephew Eadwig and heir (son of King Edmund) was influenced by this faction.
947 Eric Bloodaxe (c. 947–948 and 952–954) becomes King of Northumbria
948 Eadred destroys monastery at Ripon to deny use to Bloodaxe.
954 Eric Bloodaxe killed at the Battle of Stainmore in York, Vikings defeated by King Edmund.
955 Eadwig (955-959) becomes King of England Anti-Dunstan faction in ascendancy
955 Eadwig blew off a meeting to hang with his girlfriend Aelgifu, Dunstan dragged the teen back to the meeting, calling the girl a whore.
956 Eadwig ends up marrying Aelgifu. Dunstan flees to Flanders. While in Flanders he learns of Cluniac reforms
957 Mercians and Northumbrians revolt, Eadwig’s brother Edgar becomes king in North; south remained faithful to Eadwig. Dunstan recalled by Edgar.
959 Edgar (959-75) became King of all England upon Eadwig’s death.
960 Edgar appointed Dunstan Archbishop of Canterbury
964 Dunstan relocates Benedictine monks from Abingdon Abbey to Winchester
972 Benedictine rule spread to Pershore abbey by Oswald, the Archbishop of York and ally of Dunstan
973 Eight Kings, Kenneth of Scotland, Malcolm of Cumberland, Maccus of the Isles and five welsh princes pledge fealty to Edgar at Chester.
975 Edward (975-79) eldest son of Edgar, became king of the English at age 14. Dunstan was his guardian.
975 With Edgar's death, the anti-clerical faction attacked reform monks. Throughout Mercia they were persecuted; the realm was in serious danger of civil war. The Witan met thrice to discuss the matter and war was avoided.
979 Edward murdered under orders from his step-mother; her son Ethelred becomes king at age 10.

Another good drama about Henry VII's reign. It's post-1435, but considering the Tudor Renaissance is usually only briefly covered, I thought it fitting that this brilliant . This is the first of like 13 or 15 episodes--each an hour long.



This first episode is brilliant as it portrays Elizabeth of York as being a clever woman in her own right, unlike the typical portrayals of a meek girl pulling her hair out in grief over the death of her brothers.

~Chas'88

Episode 2 of 13



~Chas'88

Episode 3 of 13



~Chas'88

Here is the beginning of another series which examines the Lieber Regalus and other illuminated manuscripts. This one specifically focuses on manuscripts pertaining to the Anglo-Saxon kings (particularly Aethalstan, Edgar the Peaceful, etc).



~Chas'88

I finally got a chance to watch the whole three hour program on the 100 years war. I learned that a major factor in the success of Henry V was the a civil war in France. I did some more research on the Armagnac–Burgundian civil war 1407-35:

1407 Murder of Louis of Orleans begins the Armagnac–Burgundian civil war
1409 Initial phase of the war is small scale, treaty signed at Chartres was to end it
1409 Louis' son Charles married daughter of Bertrand VII, Count of Armagnac
1410 Bertrand assembled a coalition against Burgundy, the Armagnac faction
1410 Large-scaled fighting between Armagnac and Burgundian factions begins
1412 Armagnacs make treaty with England to prevent alliance with Burgundy
1413 The Caboche Riots (orchestrated by Duke of Burgundy
1415 England invades, Burgundy stays neutral, Armagnacs suffer great defeat at Agincourt
1418 Traitor Perrinet Leclerc with support of craftsmen and university delivers Paris to Burgundians
1418 Senior Armagnac leaders killed by a Parisian mob'
1419 John of Burgundy murdered, son allies with English
1420 Treaty of Troyes names Henry V of England as successor to French throne
1420 Peasant Revolt in Lyonnais
1429 French mystic Joan of Arc captures Reims, Dauphin crowned King of France
1431 English execute Joan and crown Henry VI as King of France in Paris. Nether affects Charles VII’s legitimacy
1435 Treaty of Arras ends civil war and recognized Burgundy’s independence

Since the war did not really get started until 1410, I would date the portion relevant to the turning as 1410-35. The emergence of a 17 year-old mystic as a key player supported this turning as an Awakening. So we have 1410-35 as the unrest period associated with this turnings. The emergence of a 17 years-old mystic as a key player suggests that this turning can be characterized as an Awakening period.

If I average Imbert's K-wave dates of 1411-39, which is based on data from France and Flanders as well as England, for economic stress, the 1410-35 unrest period and the generational constellation dates of 1406-32 (double weight), this gives the predicted turning start at 1410, confirming 1410-35 as the best dates for the early 15^th century Awakening in France.

Joshua Goldstein reviewed 33 Kondratiev scholars, only one of which (Imbert) looked at cycles before 1495 (Goldstein page 72). Imbert has an upwave over 1410/12 to 1422/39 based on price data from England, France, Flanders and Spain. My own analysis (England only) gives a dating of 1392-1435. A consensus between the two would be 1402-1432. So this is the best estimate for the period of economic stress.

Henry IV was born during the post-plague social moment, making him either an Artist (Plague crisis) or a Nomad (Plague awakening). Henry’s alienation of the Percy and Mortimer families is not the sort of pragmatic crisis behavior to be expected of a Nomad, he strikes me as an artist. Furthermore, Henry V’s personal and role in ending the Great Schism fits with his being a Prophet. Assuming an Artist gen started to be born around 1349, this generation would start to enter the leadership phase of life around 1401, consistent with an Awakening turning beginning in 1404. The event list gives many events over 1399-1417 that implying a period of increased unrest . So we have economics (1402-1432), unrest (1399-1417) and generations (1404-1432). Averaging these dates with double weight on generations (it’s half of the model) gives 1402-1428.

Looking at the list of events we can interpret is as a Butlerian spiral of violence. The spiral may be said to have accelerated in 1405 when the complaint of Glendower was joined by the Percy, Mortimer and eventually Oldcastle, becoming intertwined with Lollardy and extended all the way to the French war, by which time England and France had become intertwined turning-wise. To match up with S&H I will chose 1435 as the end for this English awakening giving the English Awakening as 1405-35. Although a good case can be made for an earlier start date this would give a turning length greater than 30 years which I am using as sort of an internal rule.


List of events
1395 Twelve conclusions of Lollardy affixed to doors of Westminster Abbey and St. Paul's
1399 Richard II deposed
1400 Supporters of Richard II plot against Henry
1400 Land dispute between Owen Glendower and Grey of Rutan turns to revolt when Henry IV sides with Rutan
1401 Henry IV passed law allowing Lollards to be burnt and forbidding production or ownership of an English Bible
1401 Royal offensive led by “Hotspur” Percy and Prince Henry fails
1402 period of economic stress begins
1402 Royal offensive led by Edmund Mortimer against Glendower fails; Mortimer captured, king refused to pay ransom
1403 New royal offensive, Prince Henry is commander; he makes no progress against Glendower
1403 Percy rebellion, defeated by Henry IV at Shrewsbury
1405 Richard Scrope Archbishop of York colluded with Henry Percy to overthrow Henry IV, revolt crushed and Scrope executed
1405 Glendower makes alliance with Mortimer and the Percy's (neither had received compensation for their service to the king in 1402-3.
1405 Tide turns towards Prince Henry
1407 Generational constellation maximally aligned
1409 Glendower Rebellion defeated
1410 Oxford censors condemned 267 propositions collected out of Wyclif's writings
1410 Another Lollard sent to stake. 9 more would be by 1485.
1412 Final blow by Owen Glendower, who may have been allied with John Oldcastle.
1413 Henry V becomes king
1413 Sir John Oldcastle convicted of Lollardy sent to the Tower from which he escaped
1414 Oldcastle leads Lollard rebellion against Henry V, royal troops
1414 Lollard strategy meeting raided by King's troops; many arrested and subsequently executed; Oldcastle escapes
1414 Alien priories turned over to English orders.
1414 Law passed making heresy illegal in common law as well as canon law
1415 Plot against King by Earl of Cambridge, Lord Scrope and Tom Grey; plot discovered & leaders executed
1415 Council of Constance (1414-1418) declares Wyclif a heretic.
1416 Henry makes treaty of Caterbury with Emperor Sigismund, shifting Germany support to Henry.
1417 Pope Martine V elected at Council of Constance, German and English support sway most of Christendom behind Martin, ending the Great Schism.
1417 Oldcastle captured and executed, become first English Protestant martyr.
1419 Henry makes alliance with Philip of Burgundy
1420 Treaty of Troyes names Henry V of England as successor to French throne
1422 Henry dies leaving an infant Henry VI as heir
1424 English release James of Scotland from detention, allowing him to claim the crown.
1428 Wyclif's bones were dug up, burned, and cast into the river.
1429 The Dauphin is crowned King of France making Henry VI's claim less legitimate
1431 Lollard uprising in London suburbs, after this little Lollard activity reported.
1435 Treaty of Aras ends Burgundian alliance, England begins a retreat from France

I have already written about the Hussite awakening in Bohemia, which has all the earmarks of an Awakening. It can be dated from 1409, when Hus is declared a heretic until the end of the Hussite wars in ca. 1434. So we have three Awakenings, all quite close to each other:

English (Lollard Awakening?) 1405-35
French (Joanite Awakrning?) 1410-35
Bohemian (Hussite Awakening) 1409-1434

All very close in timing to each other. I believe this establishes a multinational Awakening turning before S&H’s Retreat from France unraveling..

With a 1405 English Awakening start, even if the generation begins a year later rather than 3 years earlier, Richard of York still falls well within a Nomad generation. With a 1410 French awakening start if the generation occurs after the turning, Joan would be a prophet-nomad cusper, like Obama or FDR.

Plague Crisis in England (1355-1381)

Below is spiral that begins with the labor laws in 1349 and 1351 and ends with the rebellions in 1381. The end of the spiral in 1381 supports an end for the Plague 4T around that time. This dating fixes the next 1T length at 24 years (1381-1405).

Adding 52 years to the 1307-30 2T gives the period of aligned generational constellation 1359-1383. The period of high economic stress ran over 1351-1376. Averaging the unrest, economic stress and the generational turnings (double weight) gives 1355-81 for the turning date.

Events
1348 Black death
1349 Ordinance of Laborers: (1) Everyone under 60 must work. (2) Employers must not hire excess workers (3) Employers may not pay and workers may not receive wages higher than pre-plague levels (4) Food must be priced reasonably with no excess profit.
1351 Statute of Laborers: prohibited wage increases and movement of workers away from their home areas in search of improved conditions
1351 Statute of Provisors removes pope's power to grant English benefices
1353 English king forbids appeals to pope
1354 Statute of Staples established 15 staple towns where foreign trade in specific goods was to take place)
1356 Hero archetype Edward the Black Prince wins his spurs at Poitiers (age 26)
1361 Outbreak of Plague
1362 Hero archetype John of Gaunt becomes Duke of Lancaster (age 22)
1363 Parliament attempted to centrally regulate craft production, trading and retailing
1363 Sumptuary law forbidding commoners from wearing aristocratic clothing
1369 Outbreak of Plague
1370's 70% of royal courts' time spent enforcing the labor legislation
1376 Wycliffe’s De civili dominio: the state, not the Church was supreme in secular matters. Condemned church commissions, exactions, and squandering of charities by unfit priests. The state has a duty to correct clerical corruption; if the clergy misuses ecclesiastical property, it must be confiscated.
1377 First poll tax of 4 pence on everyone over 14
1377 Trial of John Wycliffe for heresy; broke up over rioting
1378 Second trial of Wycliffe; trial ended when the citizens entered the courtroom to save him.
1379 Progressive poll tax
1381 Flat tax of 12 pence on everyone over 15
1381 Revolts in Essex and Kent grow into the larger English Peasants' Revolt

Plague Crisis in France

Below are events for France. I do not have economic data for France. The record of famine frequency (1304, 1305, (1304, 1305, 1310, 1315–1317, 1330–1334, 1349–1351, 1358–1360, 1371, 1374–1375 and 1390) suggests that France was always under some amount of Malthusian stress throughout the century and how that played out turning-wise would have to come from how it was interpreted.

I have written in the same constellation date as for England. The 1378-83 period in which 12 unrest events occurred should be part of the 4T. The lack of unrest for 30 years after 1383 strongly supports 1383 and the end of the 4T. This gives a 27-year High over 1383-1410, implying the 4T should not be overly long. If we simply add 3 years onto the proposed generational constellation we get a 4T running over 1357-83. These first of these dates are supported by the event list because the Black Prince’s chevauchee, capture of the King and the governments continual demand for more taxes with no results, were major factors in the Jacquerie in 1358. This gives a dating of 1357-83 for the Plague Crisis in France.

France
1341 LePuy Salt Tax Protest
1343 Crisis of 1343
1346 Tax crisis in which the Estates of Languedoil played an important role
1348 Normandy Riots
1348 Black Death
1349 Flaggelants
1354 Generational constellation arrives
1355-Black Prince’s chevauchee
1356 Navarrese Tax Opposition
1356 French suffer a great defeat at Poitiers, King captured. His ransom of 3 million crowns (£750,000) was about four times ordinary revenues
1357 Parisian uprising under Etienne Marcel, head of the third estate in the estates-general over taxes and excessive monarchy power.
1358 Jacquerie revolt, peasants questioned why they should support a government and aristocracy that clearly could not protect its citizens
1363 Number of Revolts in Auvergne
1369 Aquitaine Revolt
1378 Urban Riots in Le Puy
1379 Urban Uprising in Montpellier, Arles
1379 Revolt of Ghent
1380 Tax Revolt
1380 Peasant Revolt in Midi
1381 Urban Riots
1382 Maillotin Riots
1382 Harelle Riots
1382 Riot at Beziers
1383 Conflicts in Paris

Summary:

15th century 2T
English 1405-35
French 1410-35
Bohemian 1409-1434

1T before it
English 1381-1405
French 1383-1410

Plague Crisis
English 1355-81
French 1357-83

I recall a comment that the first glimmer of Modernism came in the aftermath of the Black Death. The Hussite Awakening would seem to match this, as it seemed atypical compared to previous Medieval awakenings, which were based on traditional religion.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I recall a comment that the first glimmer of Modernism came in the aftermath of the Black Death. The Hussite Awakening would seem to match this, as it seemed atypical compared to previous Medieval awakenings, which were based on traditional religion.

And the Hussite Awakening wouldn't have started if John Wycliffe hadn't inadvertently inspired Huss. Hell, the Pope has your bones dug up and burned after you've been dead for a long time, you know that he had some kind of influence...



~Chas'88

Someone should take a look at some of the ancient cultures before Medieval Europe, I always wondered if the fall of the Roman and Greek empires were crisis eras for those time periods. I don't agree that the 1400s is some magical starting date for Generation Theory...I mean what were generations doing before then? They had no crisis eras?

Originally Posted by Chas'88

And the Hussite Awakening wouldn't have started if John Wycliffe hadn't inadvertently inspired Huss.

I wouldn't say inadvertent at all. Wycliffe did not keep his light under a bushel. Not only did he write about it but he had followers who spread the word with his encouragement.

IMO what separates Wycliffe from figures like St. Francis or Ockham, it that Wycliffe's new movement was primarily intellectual as opposed to spiritual, which is why he is not a 2T figure. The Franciscan movement in its beginning was entirely spiritual, there was little intellectual basis. Ockham was an intellectual like Wycliffe, but as a spiritual Franciscan he was already part of spirit-fired movement in which others than himself emphasized the spiritual roles.

In the 1380’s Wycliffism (soon to be called Lollardy) spread from the university into the larger community and shortly after the authorities purged the university of Wycliffism. Lollardy became less intellectual and more emotional during Richard II’s reign, becoming a movement of the spirit and not just the mind. The greatest burst of activity came in the early 15^th century and is a core part of the 2T then.

Originally Posted by Felix5

Someone should take a look at some of the ancient cultures before Medieval Europe, I always wondered if the fall of the Roman and Greek empires were crisis eras for those time periods. I don't agree that the 1400s is some magical starting date for Generation Theory...I mean what were generations doing before then? They had no crisis eras?

I've done a considerable bit on Ancient Rome. Let me give you a brief taste:

Gaius Marius - Civic
Lucius Cornelius Sulla - Rogue Artist
Pompey, Crassus, Caesar, Cato, Cicero, et. al - Prophet
Clodius Pulcher, Milo, Catullus, Marc Antony - Nomad

Octavian, later Caesar Augustus - most decidedly Civic. Very, very Civic. Even the poets he kept around him (Horace, Virgil. et. al.)

My thread-search-fu is feeble, but I'm sure the others can point you to them.

For a vivid picture of an Unraveling during a Mega-Crisis, try any of the many, many novels and murder mysteries set during the Dying Republic Saeculum.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I recall a comment that the first glimmer of Modernism came in the aftermath of the Black Death. The Hussite Awakening would seem to match this, as it seemed atypical compared to previous Medieval awakenings, which were based on traditional religion.

Yes, indeed. I was at a concert of ancient music in April, and the musicians felt impelled to apologize for the late 14th Century music as "dissonant, and really, really weird." Shades of early 20th Century music! But in the dissonance I could hear the first faint fumblings toward the lovely polyphony of the 15th & 16th centuries.

Rosemary Anne Sisson wrote some of those episodes, ca 1972. Afterwards, she wrote a good bit of Upstairs/Downstairs. Co-incidence?

Thread-The Saeculum in Ancient Rome

Originally Posted by Mikebert

Summary:

15th century 2T
English 1405-35
French 1410-35
Bohemian 1409-1434

1T before it
English 1381-1405
French 1383-1410

Plague Crisis
English 1351-81
French 1357-83

I imagine that the 1T listed must have resembled the aftermath of the Irish potato famine-an austere period rather than a "High," with no true Civic archetype. In the case of Ireland, this austere period was followed by a 2T and a new Prophet generation.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

Working saeculum

C	1147-1176	A	1305-1328
H	1176-1204	U	1328-1355
A	1204-1231	C	1355-1385
U	1231-1258	H	1385-1410
C	1258-1282	A	1410-1435
H	1282-1305	U	1435-1459

I start with an Awakening over 1305-28 proposed by Dave McGuinness at this site back around 2000. The reason for his dating an awakening at this time apparently was the beginning of the Avignon papacy and the abuses of papal and church authority that would eventually lead to the Reformation two centuries later.

Looking at my religious/spiritual events database I find few such events over the 1282-1355 period consisting of the proposed Awakening, the High before it and the Unraveling afterward:

1294 Order of Hermits of St. Augustine founded
1309 Knights of Rhodes founded
1312 Order of Montessa founded
1321 Dante Alighieri - "Divine Comedy"
1324 Marsiglio of Padua - "Defensor Pacis"
1328 William of Ockam (proponent of clerical poverty) excommunicated
1342 Rolle - "The Fire of Love"
1353 Our Lady of Sienna
1372 Dame Julian, mystical experiences
1375 John Wyclif develops Lollardy

The 1305-28 period shows 5 events, the turning before shows 1 and the two after each show 2, supporting McGuiness’s determination that it was an Awakening.

Strauss and Howe describe the spiritual awakening period as one in which "sex role distinctions narrow, public order deteriorates, and crime and substance abuse rise (Generations p 355).

Here are crime rates reported in Norfolk over the 1300-1348 period (Barbara Hanawalt, Crime and Conflict in English Communities, Cambridge MA, 1979, p 243-79)

Year	# Crimes	Year	# Crimes
1300-04	45	1325-29	104
1305-09	49	1330-34	54
1310-14	62	1335-39	30
1315-19	184	1340-44	44
1320-24	146	1345-38	58

The average over the proposed awakening in 1305-28 was 110, compared to 48 for the period outside. The difference is statistically significant at >99.98%. This finding is consistent with an Awakening.

Deterioration of public order suggests increased social unrest. Here is a site that tracks popular uprisings over the 14^th through 17^th centuries. I summarize events over the period from 1305 to the first S&H turning:

Dates	UK	FR	Flanders	SP	Hanseatic	Scand	Total	Rate
1305-1328	1	1	1				3	0.12
1328-1355				1			1	0.04
1355-1385	3	11	1		7	1	23	0.77
1385-1410				1	4		5	0.20
1410-1435	1	2		2			5	0.20
1435-1459	1			1			2	0.08

The putative awakening period is does not contain a large number of such events compared to the other periods.

The 1305-28 period saw the Great Famine. Heavy rains led to a bad harvest in 1315. In 1316 they happened again and Europe experienced the worst famine in its history. The historian David Fischer (The Great Wave, p. 37) describes the horror:

When other sources of food ran out, people began to eat one another. Peasant families consumed the bodies of the dead. Corpses were dug up from their burial grounds and eaten. In jails the convicts ceased to be fed; we are told that starving inmates “ferociously attacked new prisoners and devoured them half alive.” Condemned criminals were cut down from the gallows, butchered, and eaten. Parents killed their children for food, and children murdered their parents.

This certainly can provide motivation for discontent and a questioning of the social order, which did develop during the 14^th century. Did this questioning begin with the Avignon papacy and the associated changes in church? What else can one look for to confirm an awakening at one particular time and not another?

For the period 1435-1459, you need to add at least one uprising for Scandinavia in the form of the Swedish Engelbrekt Uprising from 1434-1436. It was directed against 'continental' forms of taxation and social organizational tendencies visavi the Swedish farmer class by the Danish based Union King, Erik of Pommern (1396-1439). It was essentially successful and set off a period of uprisings where Swedish peasants and part of the nobility struggled for traditional rights and national independence from the Danish dominated Union of Calmar, finally formally abolished through the coronation of Gustavus Vasa in 1523.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I imagine that the 1T listed must have resembled the aftermath of the Irish potato famine-an austere period rather than a "High," with no true Civic archetype. In the case of Ireland, this austere period was followed by a 2T and a new Prophet generation.

During that "High" there was a King who was overthrown, so austere is a good descriptor. The reason he was deposed? Well, according to Shakespeare:



Richard was a megalomaniac tyrant who just so happened to be crowned King, and had to be deposed, but for deposing an anointed King, England would have to suffer the bloody Wars of the Roses, as punishment from God.

In actuality, Richard was a king who supported the arts and pressed for peace. And yeah, he was something of a megalomaniac in his eccentricities, but what got the Barons upset was that he'd called off the Hundred Years War. The war-thirsty English thought that that wasn't what should be happening. The English Barons didn't want "peace and prosperity" (because the war with France, which had been ruining the country, had been lining the pockets of the Barons), which Richard was giving them. (the part on Richard II stars around 9:45 and goes to 17:00)

Essentially a less propaganda picture of Richard II is that he tried to bring peace abroad and peace at home. An example of an Artist leading in a High. After achieving peace with France, and jump starting the arts and building at home, he tried to keep his warring Barons in check and eventually they (the Barons) rebelled against him and put Henry IV on the throne.

~Chas'88