So, it would not be unreasonable to say that The Retreat From France 3T was preceded by a 2T and a 1T. So, would the Late Medieval Half Saeculum actually count as a full Saeculum? If the Black Death had actually undermined the Medieval stasis?
YesOriginally Posted by TimWalker
YesSo, would the Late Medieval Half Saeculum actually count as a full Saeculum?
It didn’t undermine the saeculum. I’ve posted on five 2Ts and 1 4T before the Plague so that gives saecula from the 13th century on (England only right now). I’ll be filling them in over time, but I need a breather now, I’ve caught some nasty virus.If the Black Death had actually undermined the Medieval stasis?
Late Medieval. As I recall, I once made a post to yet another TFT Medieval thread regarding the famine and plague era. A comment in a book that these represented a lifetime of grinding misery. (for the survivors). However, the high death rate broke the demographic deadlock; the packed communities were no longer packed, and society had a chance to move on.
A 141-year saeculum (1314-1455) seems way out of line.
A misunderstanding-I did not mean to imply an extra long speculum. The point is that the foundation of Medieval society was crumbling before we get to the turnings listed by S&H.
It is not clear to me why population decrease would necessarily create a saeculum. As I have noted, what appear to be perfectly regular turnings appear in various places in Europe before the Plague if you use the right tools to visualize them.
Mikebert, you might find Shakespeare's The Life and Death of King John interesting as it touches a lot of these points--another point of importance that was a cause for riot in England--whether or not he had his nephew Arthur killed. Shakespeare goes with the idea that Arthur was trying to escape/commit suicide, but does show how his people didn't take kindly to the death of Arthur and how it caused trouble for him when already he was at odds with the Pope. The play is surprisingly snappy, especially when you get to the parts where family squabbles begin to surface.
English Princes named Arthur have a bad tendency to end up dead. I wonder why...
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
-You'd have to compare the number of crimes in Norfolk to the population of Norfolk. Since I imagine that the population shrank a bit after the Black Death (1349), but the drop began 1330-1334, you still seem to be on to something.
You seem to be assuming that western Europe was on a single cycle, which I doubt. It was too big, even then.
EDIT Nope, screwed that up.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 05-19-2013 at 07:20 AM.
Richard saw himself as a very religious king, and was a passionate patron of the arts & education in general. People thought he was a tad obsessed with himself to boot--a lot of hubris. I think he would've been a Civic/Artist cusper in general though.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
That's my read on him too. For every point that suggests hero, there's another that says artist. I am taking the term cusper as a hybrid of archetypes for two adjacent generations, not that Richard was born near the boundaries of a generation because he was not, he was born in the middle of a 4T and so is definitely part of an Artist generation. However since we are dealing with pre-democratic turnings I am using Kurt Horner's concept of coming of age as coming into your inheritance, which happened at an average age of about 26-27 (and so gives the generational length) but which for individuals occurs at a wide variety of ages. So we have cases where important actors can come of age in the same turning in which they were born, making them one archetype by birth and another by COA experience. For example Henry III was born into a Nomad generation, but came of age in the same 2T and I have him classified as a Prophet archetype. Richard II is another case, born in a 4T and came of age in the midst of a 4T crisis. But he was quite young (14) when he came of age. On the other hand his grandfather had staged a coup and dispatched the acting king at age 17 and so came into his inheritance. Some of these monarchs were pretty capable (and ruthless) dudes as teenagers.
Last edited by Mikebert; 05-27-2013 at 01:07 PM.
You are right. It's in my database, I must have missed it when putting together the post. I will redo the whole analysis formally if I write up a document on this.
Since I first responded to this I have worked out turnings using generational archetypes as one tool. I have made use of the idea of coming of age as an important definer of generational archetype. Like Henry III, Joan may have been born during a 2T, but she certainly made her impact on history during a 2T and so she definitely came of age in a 2T. This could make her a Prophet or Nomad depending on which tendency dominated. With Joan its easy - Prophet. There is no need to justify her assignment by adjusting the generational boundaries, like I argued in my earlier response to this observation.
Suggestion for a name for the 1381 - 1405 High: Tyranny High. Part of it is already called "The Tyranny" and the rest of the turning is essentially about the rise & fall of said tyranny, so from a "story" perspective, I'd say that that Turning's plot is about the Tyranny.
Here is another suggestion I have:
1330 - 1355 = English Unraveling
I'm also tempted to go in and rename some of the turnings with leaders' names for names, but for now, this'll do.
~Chas'88
P.S. Oh! And can I make the suggestion that the 1T before the Ethelred Awakening be called the "Peaceable" High? After Edgar the Peaceable. After all, in 960 he brought Dunstan (Saint Dunstan I might add) back to England who brought the Monks back in line to the Benedictine standards and reformed the English church, as well as acted as prime minister in all but name--eventually coordinating that Edgar would be crowned as King of England in 973 as a culmination of his reign (that coronation also featured Edgar's wife getting crowned as Queen and set a standard for Queens of England being crowned as well). Dunstan was ~50 when he came back so somewhere in the late nomad / nomad/civic cusper / early civic range he'd be--I'm not firm with alignments of Turnings that go this long, so I'm unsure.
Last edited by Chas'88; 06-18-2013 at 07:22 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
There are good names, I've changed them. I am thinking of "Leonine HIgh" for the 1176-1202 High for Richard the Lionhearted.
I am still working on the 10th century. My building index indicator breaks down for this period. It indicates a 1T or 3T for ca 960-992, which is consistent with the Peaceable High (I like the name I'm going to use it).
In the scheme I currently am playing with Dunstan is a Nomad who plays a key role in mid-century 4T and a triumphant role in the subsequent High. It is during his exile that he learns of the Cluniac movement from the previous Awakening. Dunstan brings the reform notions back with him and this becomes part of the Crisis mix consistent with the idea that issues from the Awakening reverberate in the subsequent crisis.
I am shelving this for now because I have found an additonal source of data for the building index and I am adding material to my previous data so some of the dates I have posted may change. I also found a source for founding dates for medieval religious orders which has allowed be to resurrect my reigious event indicator to reveal awakenings.
So far the data from 1000 AD on is remarkably consistent with McGuinness's scheme. I have no idea how he did this. When I read his descriptions one turning hardly looks any different from another; they are filled with standard political history with kings and princes and dukes squabbling with one another. We know that political history cannot show regular turnings revealable by inspection because if it did such turnings would have been reported a long time before S&H.
And yet when I look at "hidden history", described by things like fluctuations in price levels, or the frequency of church building/monastery founding, the patterns I've seen seem to match up with his turnings.
I am wondering if artistic experessions might show fluctuations with turning. Thriteen years ago I found a database of some 800+ clasical compossers that inlcuded birth dates. I analyzed birth freqeuency to see if there were "generations" that we more richly endowned with composers than others. Didn't pan out. Even if artists themselves do not show turnign patterns, their work still might. During economically flush times there should be more commisions available and so more opportunities to do great work. During lean times fewer opportunities and perhaps lower frequencies of great works.
Anyone want to take a crack at this?
Last edited by Mikebert; 06-21-2013 at 09:15 AM.
I was already informally referring to it as the "Lionheart High" so the Leonine High sounds great to me.
If you give me a link to your source for the artists I'll be glad to sort through them. Too often Civics have gotten the shaft when it comes to "artists" by other generations on this board, simply because the GIs weren't as artistic a Civic generation as some of the others.
From my past attempts at looking at generations and their artwork, one of the few patterns I've noticed for the Anglo-American generations in terms of work is that somewhere in a late High/early Awakening expect there to be some kind of King Arthur tribute/re-imagining if there's a Civic generation alive. And in terms of Advancement/Atonement Civics--Advancement Civics are very likely to get caught up in re-imagining Cinderella, because Advancement Civics (like R&H or Disney) usually see themselves as Cinderella-like figures. And since Cinderella as a story is a Comic story of "Advancement" or Apollonian themes, as per Northrop Frye, it makes perfect sense that they'd respond to it, IMO.
As for what the work might say... private commissions is a good way to track it back to the Renaissance, but before that you'll have to start checking church records for artistic commissions.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 06-21-2013 at 11:29 AM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
The composers are on an Excel spreadheet. I found them 13 years ago so I doubt they are still on the net, but i can send you the spreadsheet. Send me a personal message with your e-mail.
It's not necessary to track commissions. All one needs to do is construct a database of works and the dates they were created or begun. If the number of works per decade are greater during "good times" than in bad times (as revealed by various economic indicators) then it fits the pattern shown by monastery founding/church building. Both patterns, as well as popular unrest (high in bad times lower in good times) show this pattern, which defines an cycle that fits closely with the saeculum given by McGuinness, where the saeculum is presented as a two-stroke cycle of alternating periods of Good times (1T & 3T) and Bad times (2T & 4T).As for what the work might say... private commissions is a good way to track it back to the Renaissance, but before that you'll have to start checking church records for artistic commissions.
Monastery founding peters out in the 14-15th century, but works of art begin to rise then. Thus the two data sets are complimentary.
An irony is that Cinderella is a Nomad like figure.
Here is a summary of the turning scheme I have proposed with supporting data:
Turnings Price Events/decade, relative values in () Butlerian Spiral Name Dates Distress Buildings Unrest Religious Date Alfred High 871-893 NA 2 (2.5) NA 871-886 following A+U+C 893-960 NA 0.8 (0.2) NA not done Peaceable High 960-992 NA 4.8 (2.6) NA None Aethelred Awakening 992-1019 NA 3 (0.9) 0.7 (1) 988-1016 Canute Unraveling 1019-1047 NA 2.1 (0.6) 0.4 (0.2) None Norman Invasion Crisis 1047-1071 NA 4.4 (0.5) 0 (0) 1051-1075 Domesday High 1071-1095 NA 16.3 (1.4) 1.9 (0.8) None Henry I Awakening 1095-1123 NA 18.6 (0.7) 3.8 (2.3) 1088-1124 Anarchy Unraveling 1123-1149 NA 39.6 (1.7) 3.6 (1.0) 1127-1147 Angevin Crisis 1149-1176 0.46 27.3 (0.9) 2.1 (0.6) 1147-1174 Leonine High 1176-1202 0.20 21.2 (1.1) 1.7 (0.5) None Magna Carta Awakening 1202-1230 0.48 12.7 (0.7) 3.4 (1.9) 1202-1217 Henry III Unraveling 1230-1256 0.33 15.2 (1.4) 1.5 (0.6) None Monfort Crisis 1256-1282 0.34 9.2 (0.9) 0.4 (0.1) 1258-1282 Edwardian High 1282-1307 0.27 6 (0.8) 0.4 (0.1) 1.2 (0.5) 1292-1305 Famine Awakening 1307-1328 0.47 5.2 (0.9) 3.3 (1.8) 1.9 (1.8) 1307-1327 English Unraveling 1328-1355 0.24 5.9 (1.4) 3.3 (0.6) 0.7 (0.4) None Plague Crisis 1355-1381 0.47 3.5 (0.9) 7.1 (2.0) 1.9 (1.0) 1369-1381 Tyranny High 1381-1405 0.29 2.1 (1.1) 4 (0.7) 0.4 (0.2) 1386-1389 Lollard Awakening 1405-1435 0.31 0.3 (0.3) 4.7 (1.9) 2 (2.3) 1399-1417 Return from France (U) 1435-1459 0.28 0.4 (2.5) 0.8 (0.3) 0.8 (0.4) ND
Descriptions of parameters:
Price stress: The English price index described by David Hackett Fisher in The Great Wave is shown below. I used Fisher's surces to construct my own index that looks like this figure, but goes back a bit further, to 1162. I fitted a straight line to the data over the 1315-1525 period to fit the Renaissance equilibrium. For the Medieval price revolution, I fit the data between 1162 and 1339 with a third degree polynomial. The cubic fit was quite good (r = 0.82). The two trend lines intersected in 1324. So the cubic regression equation up to 1324 and the linear regression equation after defines the price trend. The price data for each year was divided by the trend value to obtain the relative price. The lowest value of this ratio was then subtracted to obtain a series of values ranging from 0 in 1189 to 1.07 in 1316. I call these values price distress, because they are a measure to the degree that the current price level has deviated from typical or customary prices, which are represented by the trend. High values pf price distress mean high prices relative to normal, which should be indicative of food shortages, which I interprets as a distressful event. The values under price in the table are the average values of price distress for each turning. A clear pattern of higher values (i.e. more distress) in 2Ts and 4Ts (in bold) and lower values (less distress) in 1Ts and 3Ts is evident. This pattern is statistically significant at the 99.7% level.
Building index: I constructed a timeline of 529 building events in Britain over the 871-1459 period. About three quarters are dates for monastery foundings and the others involve church construction. I then calculated the frequency of these events (in events per decade) for each turning in the table. Looking at the data a clear trend in evident. The rate of these events increases in the early centuries, peaks in the mid-12th century, and then falls afterward. This same trend is shown by European-wide data on monastery founding given by Jan Luiten van Zanden by century: 9th 1533; 10th 2397; 11th 6776; 12th 8888; 13th 3836; 14th 1516.
As with prices, I am interesting the amount of building activity relative to the “normal” (i.e. trend) level. A simple way to get this is to simple divide the value for the turning of interest by the average values of the adjacent turnings. I did this and the values obtained appear in parentheses in the table. These values shown higher levels in 1Ts and 3Ts (shown in bold green) than in 2Ts and 4Ts. This pattern is statistically significant at the 99.8% level.
Unrest: I have discussed this measure before. It consists of 61 incidences of popular unrest in Britain and France between 1300 and 1459, about 60% of which are events from either the peasant revolt database or the tax protest database I’ve discussed previously. Another 14% are episodes of popular political protest, such as riots at John Wycliffe’s trial, London riots against Edward II, or the Lollard uprising led by John Oldcastle. A similar number involve impositions of economically regressive government edicts like the Statute of Laborers and the various poll taxes tried in during the Plague Crisis. A handful (5%) involve religious repression, mostly against Jews. The remainder (7%) reflect political actions of the nobility that threatened or actually led to civil war. The vast majority of political intrigue by the nobility was excluded as this behavior is a near-constant background in medieval times. These sort of event make up most of the the Butlerian spirals given at the extreme right and which are discussed in the linked postings.
These data were analyzed in the same way as the building data. A pattern of higher unrest in 2Ts and 4Ts can be seen, which is statistically significant at the 99.9% level.
Religious events: A similar timeline involving religious behaviors, chiefly the founding of religious orders or other religious movements (72%) and mystical experiences such as visions or revelations (22%). These are analyzed as the other two kinds of events and a clear pattern of high levels during 1Ts and lower levels in other turnings can be seen which is over 99.9% significant.
Last edited by Mikebert; 06-25-2013 at 10:55 AM.
I'd argue closer to the Nomad/Civic line, but it really depends upon the iteration of the story. It's very easy to see the care-nothing Father as an Artist, the wicked step-mother as a Prophet and the step-sisters as Civics while Cinderella is a Nomad--but Cinderella has one thing which makes me doubt giving her a core Nomad membership card--an extremely optimistic view on life. So I'll settle with a Nomad/Civic cusper.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 06-25-2013 at 11:11 AM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
I believe I know why S&H did not take the saeculum back before 1435. As I have taken it back I have noted that whereas most 15th century notable people have known or approximately known birth years, this is increasing not true of Medieval notables as you go further and further back. Right now I am working in the 9th century and birth years are unknown for almost every notable. In a few cases even dates of major events in their adult lives such as the regnal years for a king are not known to within a decade.
In general nothing is known about the early lives of even the greatest kings and saints for whom near-contemporary biographies were written (e.g. Gerald the Good). In some cases it is not even clear that the person even exists (e.g. Ragnar Lodbrok). Since the S&H method was based on biographies and the early lives are critical to their theory, it is simply impossible to do this at the early times I am looking at.
To make the claim that the saeculum doesn't happen would require that they were able to construct cohort biographies for say 14th century people and show that they did not fit the saecular pattern. I do not think it is possible to do this. For example Barbara Tuchman's A Distant Mirror focuses on the life of a single noble, Enguerrand VII de Coucy. Tuchman reports that nothing is known definitely about his youth before age 18 when he first appears in the Chronicles. Some things can be surmised about his youth, but nothing is known. And yet Tuchman chose Coucy partly because we was one of the best documented people of the era who was not a king. It is possible from the limited biographical data to know that he was born in 1340 and came of age in 1358 as a leader in the repression of the Jacquerie, and from this we can categorize him as a member of a putative Hero generation because 1340 falls in 3T and 1358 falls into a 4T (based on a turning analysis).
We really cannot say much about whether the peer personality of his generation fits the Hero archetype (one can argue that Coucy does as an individual--but then so does Henry V who is in a Prophet generation by timing). But this is not necessarily because there were no peer personalities or generations in Coucy's or Henry's time, but perhaps simply because the information necessary to make this determination does not exist.
I believe this lack of information is a fact, which makes it impossible to find generations directly at earlier times. I note this says nothing about whether or not the generations/turnings exist.
Indirect methods, such as locating the turnings first and deriving the generations from them could still work if a reliable method of detecting turnings is employed. This is the approach I have taken and I believe I have been successful in finding turnings that are as well established as those S&H found.
Last edited by Mikebert; 07-10-2013 at 07:34 AM.
Indeed the medieval record says practically nothing about children. Class privilege and deprivation defined far more about a child's life, and social mobility hardly existed. The political stage was the exclusive preserve of nobles. Advancement through such a hierarchy as the Roman Catholic Church was closely connected to birth.
Populations were low; communications were slow and largely evanescent -- and frequently stereotyped. Anonymity was commonplace for such cultural achievements as there were.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Viking Crisis (851-878)
Cast of Characters
Wessex
Nomad archetype Aethelwulf of Wessex (795-858)
Hero archetype Aethelbald of Wessex (831-860)
Hero archetype Ethelbert of Wessex (834-865)
Hero archetype Ethelred of Wessex (837-871)
Hero archetype Alfred the Great (849-899)
Northumbria
Hero archetype Ethelred II (d 862)
Hero archetype Redwulf (d 858)
Hero archetype Osberht (d 867)
Hero archetype Aelle (d 867)
Hero archetype Wulfhere, Archbishop of York (d 900)
Hero archetype Ecgberht
Mercia
Hero archetype Burgred of Mercia (d 874)
Hero archetype Ceolwulf II of Mercia (d 879)
East Anglia
Hero archetype Edmund the Martyr (841-869), king of East Anglia 855-869
Vikings
Ivar Ragnarsson “the Boneless” (d 873) leader of the Viking Great Army (865-c873)
Halfdan Ragnarsson leading figure in Great Army; King of Northumbria (875-877)
Ubbe Ragnarsson leading figure in Great Army (d 878)
Guthrum I Commander of Great Army (874-79) King of East Anglia (879-890)
Guthred King of Northumbria (883-895)
From 793 to 820 the event list shows 15 Viking attacks on England. There is a 12 year hiatus, and then 5 more over 832-837. There is another 14 year hiatus and then there are five over 851-860. Then in 865 comes the invasion by the Viking Great Army. The 9 year period between 851 and 860 can be thought of as a spiral of external violence during which the Vikings probed England’s defensive capabilities.
The terms Viking or Dane are used interchangeably to refer to the Norsemen in general. Here we will use the term Viking to refer to both Scandinavians in general. Dane will be used to refer to Vikings that cam settle eastern Mercia and East Anglia. The term Viking will be used to refer to those who settled in what would come to be called Jorvik or the kingdom of York. These latter Vikings in time developed close connections with Viking in Ireland and are sometimes called Norse-Gaels.
There were three sources for Viking attacks. One was the Viking homeland of Scandinavia and Denmark. Another was the Viking colony at Dublin in Ireland. Finally there was a Viking presence in France. The most natural place to attack from Vikings coming from the last two places would be Southern or Western England, that is Wessex. For forces coming from Denmark southeastern England would make the most sense, which was also part of Wessex in the mid-9th century. Thus, the most likely target for a massive Viking assault would be Wessex.
The decisive defeat of invading Danes by Aethelwulf in 851 led Viking leaders to decide upon a different location for their initial assault. And so the first wave of the invasion came from Scandinavia and fell on East Anglia, probably the weakest of the Anglo Saxon kingdoms. Overawed by the size of the invading force East Anglian king Edmund, gave horses to the Viking army in exchange for peace. And so the Army went elsewhere. They chose Northumbria.
Timeline
858 Ethelred II king of Northumbria since ca. 850 deposed & replaced by Redwulf
858 Redwulf dies fighting the Vikings, Ethelred returns to throne of Northumbria
862 Ethelred II of Northumbria assassinated, succeeded by Osberht
866 Osberht of Northumbria deposed, succeeded by Aelle (the tyrant)
866 Aelle seized church lands at Billingham, Ileclif, Wigeclif, and Crece
866 Vikings invade Northumbria, York captured. Crowland Abbey destroyed
867 Osberht and Aelle put aside their feud and unite to oppose the invaders
867 Osberht and Aelle killed in battle; Northumbria conquered, Ecgberht I made puppet king
872 Ecgberht I driven out of Northumbria, succeeded by Ricsige, who was not a puppet
874 Great Army splits, one part led by Halfdan went north, the rest remained
874 Halfdan retook southern Northumbria (Deira) becoming King of Jorvik (York)
874 Northern Northumbria (Berenicia) continues to be ruled by Ricsige
877 Halfdan deposed; York has no king for a time.
883 Guthred becomes king of thru efforts by Eadred Lulisc, abbot of Carlisle
The Northumbrian timeline shows two kings deposed and one assassinated in the 8 years leading up to the Viking invasion. Clearly Northumbria was already in crisis before the invasion, and it fell easily to the invaders.
East Anglia
865 The Viking Great Army led by brothers Ivar, Halfdan & Ubbe Ragnarsson lands at East Anglia
865 East Anglian king Edmund the Martyr (from 854) provided horses to Vikings for peace
869 Great Army invaded East Anglia, King Edmund defeated and killed, East Anglia conquered
869-79 East Anglia ruled by puppet kings
879 Guthrum I becomes king
After the conquest of Northumbria, the army moved into Mercia, which was not in crisis. The Mercians asked for and received support from Wessex and the combined armies prevented the conquest of Mercia. The army withdrew and moving into East Anglia instead, defeating King Edmund and conquering the kingdom. Edmund was later executed by order of Ivar the boneless, leader of the Viking Army.
Mercia
868 Danes invade Mercia, advanced to Nottingham; are besieged by combined Wessex-Mercian force.
868 King Burgred (from 852) pays Danegeld; Vikings and Vikings withdraw to York
873 Vikings get paid a second Danegeld from Mercia
874 Danes drive Burgred out; new king is Ceolwulf.
c874 New Viking leader Guthrum appears, Ivar disappeared from the record some time previously
874 Great Army splits, part went to Cambridge under Guthrum
875 Guthrum invades Wessex from Mercia
876 Guthrum back in Mercia
877 Mercia split; Viking East; Ceolwulf kept the west
879 Eastern Mercia becomes part of the Danelaw under Guthrum’s overlordship
After this the army moved into Wessex. Like Northumbria, Wessex faced a potential internal crisis in 856 when the king’s son Athelwald, who had been left in charge of the kingdom while his father Aethelwulf went on pilgrimage, refused to surrender the throne. Rather than start a civil war, Aethelwulf settled for rule of Kent (the subsidiary kingdom which Athelwald had ruled before he left him in charge). Athelwulf’s third son Ethelbert stepped aside as ruler of Kent and resumed it after Athelwulf’s death two years later. These decisions not only did not split the nation, it also did not split the family. During Ethelbert’s reign, his next younger brother Ethelred apparently served his elder brother as a lieutenant king since in 862 and 863 he issued charters as King of the West Saxons of the West Saxons. There is no record of conflict between the brothers and Ethelred continued to witness his older brother's charters as a king's son in 864.
The reason for Athelwald’s disloyalty to their father was probably their new 13-year old stepmother, Judith. Judith was the Daughter of Charles the Bald, King of the West Franks and great granddaughter of Emperor Charlemagne. Any children she might have with Athelwulf would be the heirs to a prestigious lineage and would have an excellent claim on the kingship. By keeping the throne, the eldest brother was preserving the inheritance rights of his younger brothers as well as asserting his own. And by refusing to fight, Athelwulf signaled that it was OK. The brothers continued to cooperate, each responsibly grooming his next younger brother as king-in-training. And it showed. Alone of the Saxon kingdoms, Wessex not only resisted the Vikings, but reconquered all they had taken.
Wessex
851 Viking invasion defeated by King Aethelwulf’s 1st son Athelstan at Battle of Ockley
853 Aethelwulf sent his 4 yr. son Alfred to Rome with next younger son .
855 Aethelwulf joined Alfred in Rome on pilgrimage, leaving throne in charge of 2nd son Aethelbald
856 Aethelwulf marries Judith, daughter of Charles the Bald, King of West Franks
856 Aethelbald refuses to give up throne upon Aethelwulf's return, who yields to avoid civil war
860 A charter shows witnesses from Kent as well as Wessex, showing integration of the two kingdoms
868 Vikings invade Mercia, advance to Nottingham; are besieged by combined Wessex-Mercian force.
871 Vikings receive reinforcements & invade Wessex, deliver a heavy defeat at Reading (Jan 4)
871 Wessex counters with victory at Ashdown (Jan 8), but in defeated at Basing (Jan 22) and Meretun (Mar)
871 King of Wessex Ethelred dies (April), successor Alfred defeated at Wilton (May)
871 Alfred pays Danegeld; Vikings withdraw to London
875 Late in year Guthrum slipped past Wessex forces, establishing a position at Wareham
876 Alfred was unable to take Wareham by assault, made truce; Guthrum left for Exeter, Wessex
876 Alfred besieged Exeter. Viking relief fleet scattered by storm; Guthrum made peace; withdrew to Mercia.
878 Jan: Danes in Mercia assaulted Chippenham, defeating Saxons; Alfred fled to Somerset Marshes in Western Wessex
878 Alfred established a base at Athelney, musters forces from the Western half of his kingdom
878 Ealdorman Odda of Devon defeats Viking force led Ubbe Ragnarsson at Cynwit; Ubbe killed
878 Alfred launches a counteroffensive & achieves a decisive victory in Battle of Eddington in May
878 Alfred moves on to Chippenham and starves out the reaming Viking forces; Guthrum surrenders
878 Guthrum agree to peace: he withdraws to Cirencester Mercia
Alfred the Great High (878-901)
Bldg. Index: 853-879 2/27 880-901 6/22; 902-919 2/18
Building index supports a non-social moment turning around 880-901.
Hero archetype Alfred the Great (849-899)
Hero archetype Guthrum I (c850-890) Commander of Great Army (874-79) King of East Anglia (879-890)
Artist archetype Ethelred (c860-918) Lord of Mercia (c880-911)
Artist archetype Guthred (c863-895) King of Northumbria (883-895)
Artist archetype Athelfled (c 870-918) Lady of the Mercians 911-918
Artist archetype Edward the Elder (c871–924) King of Wessex
878 Guthrum agree to peace with Alfred: he withdraws to Cirencester Mercia
879 Guthrum becomes king Guthrum I of East Anglia
879 Alfred builds defensive infrastructure and constructs a navy
879 Ceolwulf dies. Soon later Ethelbert emerges as ruler of Mercia, acknowledging Alfred as overlord.
882 Alfred's new navy attacks 4 Viking ships, two captured
885 Viking assault Rochester in Kent, Alfred's defense hold until Alfred's army drove them off
886 Alfred re-captures London; Ethelbert given control of the city
890 Anglo-Saxon Chronicle complied on orders of King Alfred
c890 Alfred’s daughter Athelfled marries Ethelbert maintaining a marital bond between Mercia and Wessex
893 Danish Invasion, Edmund defeats Danes at Farnham
895 Danes march west to Chester, where they are besieged, they escape into Wales and carry off treasure
899 Alfred dies.
This period shows no significant spirals. After stopping the Vikings, Alfred consolidates his position, and makes some small additional gains against them. The next round of conflict begins with Alfred’s death, effectively ending the High. The dates give were obtained from the surrounding turning.
Athelfled Awakening (901-922)
Bldg. Index: 880-901 7/22; 902-919 1/18; 920-939: 2/20
The Building index suggests a social moment turning beginning around 902.
In 899 Alfred the Great dies, ending the High which began with Alfred’s crucial military victory at Eddington in 878. Alfred’s oldest son Edward claims the thrown. His cousin Aethelwold asserts that his claim, through his father King Aethelwold, the elder brother of Alfred, is superior. The consensus of Wessex nobility sides with Edward, and Aethelwold rebels against Edward. Apparently, Athelwold lacked Saxon support because he joined with the Danes, who make him King of Northumbria, bringing about a resumption in the war. Aethelwold’s role ends in 902 with his death at the Battle of Holmes, but the war continues with fits and starts until 918, making the 899-918 period the unrest period for this turning.
Having two defined turnings, I can define generations. In the pre-industrial era there were typically only three relevant generations: youth aged 0-25 adult aged 26-51 and elder aged 52+. The primary actors in Awakenings are artists and prophets, with the former typically more important as the beginning and the later by the end. Artists are born during the Crisis (851-78) and therefore would start become elders around 903-930. Averaging the building index date of 902 and the unrest period start of 899 with the generational date gives a consensus value of 901.
Prophets come of age during the Awakening and should start reaching mature adulthood 26 years after the start of the turning or 927. Averaging this value with the 918 date for the end of the unrest period gives 922.
Cast of Characters
Artist archetype Athelflaed (c870-918) Lady of the Mercians 911-918
Artist archetype Ethelred (c860-918) Lord of Mercia (c880-911)
Artist archetype Aethelwold (c867-902)
Artist archetype Edward the Elder (c875–924) King of Wessex
Eohric (d 902) King of East Anglia 890-902
Guthrum II (d 918) King of East Anglia 902-918
Artist archetype Ragnall of Northumbria (Danish lead in 911, king of Northumbria 914-20)
899 Athelwold makes a strategic marriage, holes up at Wimborne and defies Edward
899 Edward comes to Wimborne, unable to muster matching forces, Athelwold fled to Northumbria
c900 Athelwold now king of Northumbria
900 Athelfled wife of Ethelred Lord of Mercia, provides aid to her brother against Athelwold
901 Athelwold, takes fleet to East Anglia, allies with King Eohric
902 Athelwold and Eohric invade Wessex and Mercia.
902 Danes defeat Saxons at Battle of Holmes, but Athelwold and Eohric killed
902 Gaelic-Danish group under Ingimund granted land in charter signed by Athelfled, not her husband
902 Ethelred becomes a semi-invalid, Athelfled becomes de facto ruler of Mercia
905 Ingimund attacked Chester. Athelfled learned of attack & garrisoned Chester before attack
906 Anglo-Saxon chronicles report Edward makes peace with the Danes, "of necessity"
907 Athelfled turns Chester from a tun (town) to a burh (fortified city) in response to Ingimund’s attack
910 Edward wins a crucial victory against the Danes at Tettenhall
911 Upon death of Ethelred Mercian Witan hails Athelfled as successor
911-8 Edward and Athelfled recapture Danish-held east Mercia using a “strategic hamlets” policy
912 Athelfled builds burh at Bridgenorth
912 Edward builds burh in Hereford
913 Athelfled builds burhs in Tamworth and Stafford
913 Edward builds burh in Witham
914 Ragnall defeats Scottish king at Tamford, becomes king of Northumbria
914 Athelfled builds burhs in Warwick & Eddisbury
914 Edward takes Bedford, a burh in Danish-controlled Mercia
915 Athelfled builds burhs in Chirbury & Runcorn
917 Athelfled signs treaty with two Scottish kings, exploiting Scottish anti-Dane sentiment after 914
917 Athelfled seized Derby and Leicester
917 Edward took Northampton, Huntington, and, finally Cambridge, last Danish holdout in Mercia
917 Edward defeats Guthrum II at Tempsford, Guthrum killed; Edward annexes East Anglia
918 Edward annexes London and surrounding lands and Mercia after the death of Athelfled
The awakening began with a succession conflict when Athelwold rebelled against Edward. Athelwold felt he should be king after Alfred because he was the sole surviving son of King Ethelbert (865-71) Alfred’s elder brother. When his father died, Athelwold was only four and the kingdom, beset by Vikings, needed a capable adult leader, making Alfred the obvious choice for king. As the eldest of Aethelwulf’s grandchildren, he was the senior Aetheling (member of the royal dynasty eligible for kingship). This idea is supported by the only surviving charter which has Athelwold's signature, in which he is listed above Edward, implying that he ranked above him. So Athelwold had a legitimate claim to the throne. On the other hand Edward himself clearly intended for his son to succeed him as he left most of his property to him in his will. More importantly he had given Edward military commands as soon as he was old enough in order to develop his leadership abilities. Apparently this carried the day as Edward was hailed as king.
Athelwold decides to contest the issue. At Anglo-Saxon chronicles says that Athelwold seizes a nun and marries here without permission of her bishop or Edward. Modern historians suspect that Athelwold made a strategic marriage which gave him allies within the Wessex nobility. in Anglo-Saxon England, marriages had the force of treaties and/or alliances (one of the West Saxon words for "wife" was frithuwebbe, “peace weaver”). After making this strategic marriage he went to Wimbourne, where his father was buried, and probably in a region where his family had connections and declared his opposition to Edward. Athelwold was unable to muster sufficient forces to deal with Edward’s response to this provocation and fled to Northumbria where apparently they made him king. There seems to have been some fallout between Athelwold and the Northumbrians and he was rejected as king after a year and shortly after took a fleet from Northumbria to Essex. In 902 he persuaded the Danes of East Anglia to wage war against Edward and joined them in a raid on Mercia and Wessex. Edward retaliated by ravaging the southern Danelaw, but when he withdrew, the men of Kent refused to obey the order to retreat. They met the Danes at an unknown location in East Anglia at the Battle of the Holme. The Danes were victorious but suffered the heavier losses, including Athelwold.
The war begun by Athelwold continued. The main players on the Anglo-Saxon side were Edward and his sister Athelfled, the wife of Ethelbert, the ruler of Western Mercia. Ethelbert had become the ruler of the Mercians after the death of Ceolwulf, who had succeeded Burgred in 874 when invading Danes drove him out. Ethelbert’s exact status was unclear, he was called the ealdorman of Mercia in Wessex, Lord of Mercia in Mercia and King of Mercia in Celtic lands. He issued charters in his own name as did a king, but did not issue coinage. It is clear that Ethelbert acknowledged Alfred as his overlord, and Alfred apparently trusted him as he gave London over to him after its conquest in 886. He also gave his daughter in marriage to Ethelbert as his father had done with Burgred, thus renewing the alliance between the two kingdoms.
This alliance was key to the Saxon military achievements in this Awakening. Ethelbert suffered a debilitating illness of some sort just after the beginning of the century that left him unable to effectively rule and wife Athelfled ruled in his name and in her name after his death in 911. Unlike most women of her station at that time, she had been educated in Alfred’s court alongside her brother Edward and thus had a command of political and military matters. Through a process of observation she and her brother developed an effective strategy for dealing with the Danish threat and in time to recover Saxon lands.
The Danes were not super warriors. When facing off against Saxon or Carolingian armies they lost as often as they won. Their effectiveness from their superior mobility and hit-and-run tactics. They could not take a fortified town, but made good use of the fortified places they held. A typical strategy would be to move out of their fortification to sack a town and then dart back into their positions before the opposing armies could arrive. Athelfled experimented turning “tuns” them into “burhs” by constructing various kinds of fortifications. Initially she did this to towns near the Welsh frontier, far from Danish-held lands, but within the range of their raids. After finding what kinds worked best, she and her brother built burhs in strategic locations near the frontier, which made the Danish raiding tactic less and less useful. From these strong points they struck out at opportune moments to seize Danish burhs. Once a critical mass fell, all of Danish Mercia was theirs.
Key to the Saxon victory was the implicit trust between brother and sister and their common education which meant they had the same basis for strategic thought and so could coordinate their efforts in ways that the Danes could not. Hence, on several occasions the mere arrival of Saxon troops at a Danish burh whose garrison was elsewhere involved resulting in its surrender. Once the burh fell, typically the population in the surrounding area quickly submitted to the new order. And so, after a protracted campaign, the enemy collapsed over a matter of months and all of Mercia and East Anglia were in Saxon hands.
