Athelstan Unraveling 922-945

Bldg. Index: 899-919 2/21; 920-940: 2/21; 940-959: 3/20; 960-987

The building index is not informative over this period

The dating for this turning is determined by the surrounding turnings

Artist archetype Edward the Elder (c875–924) King of Wessex (899-924)
Artist archetype Ragnall king of Northumbria (914-20)
Artist archetype Sihtric Caoch (d 927) King of Dublin (917-920), King of Northumbria (920-927)
Prophet archetype Athelstan (c895-939) King of Wessex (924-927) King of England (927-939)
Prophet? archetype Guthfrith ua Imair (d 934) King of Dublin (920-934), briefly king of Northumbria (927)
Nomad archetype Alfweard (902-924) King of Wessex (924)
Nomad archetype Edwin of Wessex (c904-933)
Nomad archetype Olaf Guthfrithson (d 941) King of Dublin (934-941) King of Northumbria (939-941)
Nomad archetype St. Dunstan (909-988)
Nomad archetype Edmund (921-946) King of England 939-946

Timeline
917 Sihtric Caoch captures Dublin, becomes king of Dublin
919 Sihtric wins a decisive victory against the Irish, High king of Ireland killed, cementing his position.
920 Ragnall King of York (914-20) succeeded by Sihtric, king of Dublin
920 Guthfrith ua Imair becomes king of Dublin.
924 Edward dies; is succeeded by Athelstan in Mercia and Alfweard in Wessex
924 Alfweard dies just a month after Edward.
925 Athelstan crowned king of Wessex
925 St Dunstan brought to Athelstan’s courts by his uncle Athelm, Archbishop of Canterbury
926 Athelstan marries his sister to Sihtric.
927 Sihtric is succeeded by Guthfrith.
927 Athelstan invades, defeats Guthfrith and his Scottish & British allies; captures Northumbria
927 With submission of the kings of Scotland and Strathclyde, Athelstan becomes British overlord
930 St. Albans attacked by the Danes
933 Accused of conspiracy Athelstan’s half-brother Edwin fled to France, drowning enroute
934 Dunstan’s rivals conspire to have him banished. He leaves court and joins Glastonbury Abbey
937 Attempt by Guthfrith's son Olaf Guthfrithson to retake Northumbria defeated by Athelstan
939 Olaf Guthfrithson regains throne of Northumbria and gains control of the Midlands after Athelstan’s death

In this unraveling, after nine years of relative peace, Athelstan, taking advantage of the death of Sihtric, struck at York and managed to drive out his successor Guthfrith and make himself king. Losing his bid for the Northumbrian throne, Guthfrith return to Dublin where he remained king until 934. Unlike in the next turning, Northumbria remained quiet during the rest of Athelstan’s reign, supporting the assignment of this period as a non-social moment. It’s dating and identification as an unraveling comes from his position with respect to the adjacent turnings.

St. Dunstan Crisis 945-964

David McGuiness has a pan-European crisis turning over 936-963, which encompasses this turning.

Bldg. Index: 920-940: 2/21: 940-959: 3/20; 960-987: 22/28

The building index supports a stressful turning end in 959.

Viking spiral Setback in the Viking campaign

Cast of characters
Prophet archetype Eric Bloodaxe (885-954) King of Norway 931-3, King of Northumbria, 947-8, 952-4
Nomad archetype Oda (d 958), Bishop of Ramsey c925-941, and Archbishop of Canterbury 941-58
Nomad archetype Wulfstan (d 956), Archbishop of York, 931-956.
Hero archetype Edmund (921-946) King of England 939-946
Hero archetype Eadred (923-955) King of England 949-955
Hero archetype Olaf Sihtricson (927-81) King of Northumbria, 941-944

In the previous turning the reconquest campaign against the Vikings begun by Alfred the Great and
continued by his son Edward of Wessex and daughter Ethelred of Mercia was completed by Edward’s son
Athelstan, making him the first King of England. After Athelstan died, Northumbria rebelled and placed
the Norse King of Dublin, Olaf Guthfrithson (whose father had briefly ruled Northumbria before
Athelstan’s conquest in 927) on the throne. Olaf dies and is replaced by another Olaf, with whom
Edmund made peace. There then follows a series of coups with Northumbria ending up back in English
hands in 954.

Timeline
939 Edmund (939-946) succeeds brother Athelstan
939 Olaf Guthfrithson regains throne of Northumbria and gains control of the Midlands after Athelstan’s death,
940 Oda, bishop of Ramsey, arranged a truce between Guthfrithson and Edmund
941 Olaf Guthfrithson dies, Olaf Sihtricson succeeds as King of Northumbria
942 Edmund recaptures Midlands
943 Edmund made peace with Sihtricson, ceded a portion of Northumbria & became Olaf's godfather.
944 Coup against Sihtricson by Bishop Wulfstan and Northumbrian ealdorman makes Edmund king
946 Edmund conquers Cumbria (Strathclyde) cedes it to Malcolm I of Scotland for a permanent alliance
946 Eadred (946-955) becomes King of Wessex
947 Northumbria rebels against Eadred, electing Eric Bloodaxe as king
948 Eadred implements a punitive campaign against Northumbria; destroys monastery at Ripon
948 Intimidated, Northumbria deposes Bloodaxe, and paid compensation to Eadred
949 Northumbrians bring back Olaf whom they had deposed five years earlier
952 Northumbrians ditch Olaf and bring back Eric Bloodaxe
954 Bloodaxe assassinated; Eadred is again ruler. With Bloodaxe dead and Olaf twice rejected, Eadred is unchallenged.

A notable feature of this spiral is the frequency of Northumbrian rebellions during the 15 years between 939 and 954 period compared to the absence of rebellion during the 12 years of English rule between 929 and 939. During the later period Athelstan was a mature adult (age 34-46) prophet archetype in an Unraveling. Archetypically he should be moralistic, and he was. He was very devout and
obsessed with maintaining a moral order, and wrote laws severely punishing theft which he saw as a
assault on a moral order. As a mature archetypical order-giver in a position of legitimate authority
he was expected to dictate orders which would be acceptable by other moralistic order-givers (prophets)
subordinates. Athelstan’s competence as a ruler would be enough for Nomad subordinates.

On the other hand, Edmund and Eadred were rising adult Heroes in a Crisis. Archetypically they were
order-takers, trying to rule over older nomads and prophets. Is it surprising that Nomad archetypes
Wulfstan and leading Northumbrians chose to support their hero-archetype king against the hero
Sihtricson but not against the prophet archetype Eric Bloodaxe? In this latter case the generational
constellation was more like that of an awakening, which according to S&H leads to intergenerational strife.
This back and forth with the rulers continue until Bloodaxe was dead and then with no acceptable
candidates left the spiral ended. This generation interplay supports the assignment of this turning as a
Crisis and the previous one as an Unraveling despite the lack of support from the building index.

Religious spiral

Cast of characters
Nomad archetype St. Dunstan (909-988) Archbishop of Canterbury
Nomad archetype Oda (d 958), Bishop of Ramsey c925-941, and Archbishop of Canterbury 941-58
Nomad archetype Athelstan Half-King, Ealdorman of East Anglia
Hero archetype St. Oswald (d 954)
Hero archetype Edmund (921-946) King of England 939-946
Hero archetype Eadred (923-955) King of England 949-955
Hero archetype Eadwig (940-959) King of England 946-959
Artist archetype Edgar (943-975) King of England 959-975


Monastic life had declined to a low ebb in England in the ninth century, partially because of damage inflicted by Viking raids. This phenomenon shows up in the data on monastery founding given by Jan Luiten van Zanden. At the beginning of the 7^th century van Zanden’s data shows 236 monasteries in England. Over the 7^th century this number grew to 463 establishments, a net gain of 240 houses. Over the next three centuries there was no growth at all, at the end of the 10^th century the number stood at 437, a slight increase. The 11^th century saw a net gain of nearly 90 houses and the 12^th century nearly 800.

Over the period of stagnation most of the existing monasteries passed into the control of secular families and were no longer inhabited by monks but by married priests (secular clergy). Former monastic estates had been transferred to secular nobles or carved into individual priestly “fiefs” for the priest’s stipend. More or less the same had happened to monasteries in France, a situation which had given rise to reform movements such as those at Cluny (910) and Fleury (930). During this Crisis leading English clerics such as St Dunstan and Oswald learn of the French reforms which they will put into practice during the next turnings.

In, France, the collapse of the central government in the ninth century had led to a need for clerical independence from all secular authority if they were to perform their spiritual function. This led to the Cluniac movement in which monasteries gained independence from interference by the aristocracy in their internal affairs. In subsequent turnings this reform would spread to efforts to restrain aristocratic interference in the functioning of civil society in the Peace of God and Truce of God movements and later Crusade movement. These movements all served to increase the authority if the pope, who as leader of the church exerted considerable influence over the clergy.

English monastic reform was different from that in France. The central government did not collapse in the ninth century. In contrast, through the efforts of Alfred the Great and his energetic children and grandson England had become a strong centralized state by the middle of the 10^th century. Clerical reform would require royal sponsorship. There were two sides. Reformers like Dunstan and Oswald believed that celibate monastic orders following the Benedictine rule provided the best men to minister to the spiritual needs of the people. Some like the bishop of Winchester, St. Athelwold, believed it was the only way. It was true that Benedictines were much better educated than the secular canons and monastic living and celibacy had infused a level of discipline and competence in monastery product that was largely missing from the secular cannons. The reformers also advocated a policy of peaceable relations between Norse and Saxon thegns.

The opponents of reform, secular cannons and many nobles, argued that the secular clergy were much cheaper, and how educated did one have to be to minister to an ignorant and illiterate peasantry? Under the secular system, wealthy thegns maintained influence over the local clergy, provided them increased legitimacy in their dealings, which of course was welcome to these nobles. The peace policy toward the Danes was well received in the northern parts of the country (which had been part of or adjacent to the Danelaw) but opposed in Wessex which had always remained Saxon and who had prevailed in the long war. Thus, the secular versus monastic divide was more than just about religion, but also about politics, both local and regional. Movement on the issue would require royal sponsorship. And so the fortunes of each side depended whether the king sided with the monks as did Edmund, Eadred and Edgar, or the secular cannons, as did Eadwig and Ethelred.

Timeline
939 Edmund (939-946) succeeds brother Athelstan
940 Dunstan appointed minister by Edmund, courtiers resent and plot against him
Dunstan to be dismissed when King has transforming religious experience.
943 Edmund appoints Dunstan abbot of Glastonbury where he installs Benedictine Rule
946 Eadred (946-955) becomes King of Wessex: St. Dunstan was influential during the reign of
Eadred.
950 St. Oswald, a future church reformer entered the Abbey of Fleury, which had undergone a Cluniac-like reform in 930.
955 Eadwig (955-959) becomes King of England; anti-Dunstan faction in ascendancy
955 Eadwig blew off a meeting to hang with his girlfriend Aelgifu, Dunstan dragged the teen back to the meeting, calling the girl a whore.
956 Eadwig ends up marrying Aelgifu. Dunstan flees to Flanders; while in Flanders he learns of Cluniac reforms
957 Mercians and Northumbrians revolt, Eadwig’s brother Edgar becomes king in North; south remained faithful to Eadwig. Dunstan recalled by Edgar.

As shown in the timeline, St. Dunstan, who would become the leader of the monastic party was appointed to the government of King Edgar after having been dismissed from the court of his father Athelstan. His enemies plotted against him and would have succeeded had the king not had a religious experience that caused him to retain Dunstan and eventually appoint him as abbot of the Monastery of Glastonbury, where he implemented stringent new rules.

When Edgar died and was succeeded by his brother Eadred, Dunstan’s influence grew. The policy of the new government included conciliation with the Danish half of the kingdom, rebuilding of churches, moral reform of the clergy and laity, and the end of the religion of the Danes in England The goal was a firm establishment of royal authority. The policy was supported by Oda, Archbishop of Canterbury, and by the East Anglian nobles, at whose head was the powerful ealdorman Athelstan the "Half-king" (Historians believe Athelstan had influence roughly equivalent to that of Harold Godwinson in the next Crisis turning). The nobles of Wessex, who included most of Dunstan's own relatives, opposed these reforms, preferring to maintain established customs. During Eadred’s reign Dunstan's had a pretty free hand, but the situation changed with the new King, 15 year old Eadwig, who sided with his relatives and friends amongst the Wessex nobility. Dunstan crossed the teenaged King and was forced to flee to France.

In Dunstan’s absence, a pro-Benedictine party began to form around Athelstan the Half-King's domain of East Anglia which supported Eadwig's younger brother Edgar as king. With the support of Oda, Archbishop of Canterbury, the thanes of Mercia and Northumbria switched their allegiance to Edgar. To avoid civil war, the nobles agreed to divide the realm with Eadwig in the south and Edgar in the north.

In generational terms he have youthful hero and artist archetypes in a Crisis turning trying to rule over much older Nomads. It is not surprising that the twenty-something hero archetype Eadred was willing to give the 40ish Nomad archetype Dunstan a free hand in his reform efforts. Nor it is surprising that 14-year old artist archetype Eadwig was willing to serve the cause of the Wessex nobility and when serving that cause lead to rebellion, be willing to submit to the loss of half of his kingdom.

Summary
These two timelines define an unrest period extending from the death of Athelstan in 939 to the death of
Eadwig in 959. Most of the principal actors in the crisis were nomads and hero archetypes moving into elder and adult phases of life. Adding 52 and 26 to start of the prior 2T and 3T in 901 and 922, respectively, gives 953 and 948 as the beginning of these two events. Averaging them together gives a constellation date of 950 for the start of this turning. Averaging this with the 939 start of the unrest era gives a consensus estimate for the beginning of the 4T of 945. By the end of the turning the principal actors are now Heroes and Artists. Proceeding as before, adding 52 and 26 to start of the prior 3T and this 4T in 922 and 945 gives 974 and 971 which average to give a constellation date of 972 for the end of this turning. Averaging this with the end of the unrest period in 959 and the building index date of 959 gives a consensus value of 964 for the turning end.

Peaceable High (964-990)

David McGuiness has a pan-European High over 963-996. For England the building index shows elevated activity during this period.

Bldg. Index: 940-959: 3/20; 960-987: 23/28; 988-1015 5/28

Building index supports a 960-987 non-stressful period

Under King Edgar some of the former monastic houses, especially in the south and Midlands, were revived and reformed according to the Rule of St Benedict by the king and three leading prelates: Dunstan, archbishop of Canterbury, Ethelwold, bishop of Winchester, and Oswald, bishop of Worcester

Cast of characters
Nomad archetype St Dunstan (909-988)
Nomad archetype Athelwold of Winchester (909-984)
Hero archetype St. Oswald (d 954)
Artist archetype Edgar (943-975)
Artist archetype Edward the Martyr (963-979)
Artist archetype Aethelred II (968-1016)

Timeline
959 Edgar (959-75) became King of all England upon Eadwig’s death.
960 Edgar appointed Dunstan Archbishop of Canterbury
964 Dunstan relocates Benedictine monks from Abingdon Abbey to Winchester
972 Benedictine rule spread to Pershore abbey by Oswald Archbishop of York and ally of Dunstan
973 Kenneth of Scotland, Malcolm of Cumberland, Maccus of the Isles and five welsh princes pledge fealty to Edgar at Chester.
975 Edward (975-79) eldest son of Edgar, became king of the English at age 14. Dunstan was his guardian.
975 A brief struggle over succession followed Edgars death; Edward, backed by St Dunstan and the pro-reform forces won.
975 With Edwards ascension, the anti-clerical faction attacked reform monks. Throughout Mercia they were persecuted; the realm was in serious danger of civil war. The Witan met thrice to discuss the matter and war was avoided.
979 Edward murdered under orders from his step-mother; her son Aethelred (979-1013, 1014-16) becomes king at age 10. Anti-clerical faction in ascendance, Dunstan’s influence over
980 Vikings renew raid attacks, possibly testing Ethelred, little impact
983 Oswald founded a Benedictine monastery at Worcester
986-7 Archbishop Oswald of York invited Abbo of Fleury to assist in monastic reforms
988 Battle at Wachet, Danes defeat local Saxon forces, local leader Streonwald killed

The timeline shows an absence of Butlerian spirals, consistent with a High turning. All three kings during
this turning were Artist archetypes. The last, Aethelred, although born in a High also came of age during
the same High, forging him into an Artist archetype. All three kings played their archetypical role during
their coming of age, while the Nomad clerics Dunstan and Aethewold played their archetypical pragmatic
roles. Although both men were in the reform camp, during the succession struggle after Edgars death,
Athelwold supported Aethelred. As a result, when Aethelred came to power, and Dunstan was forced
out, Athelwold was able to dissuade action against many of the reformed monasteries until his death in
984. Thus, the reigns of Edgar, Edward, and the first five years of Ethelred’s reign combined gave a 25
year period favorable to the monastic cause during which 20 events are given in building index, more than occurred in the 160 years previous.

Aethelred Awakening (990-1016)

David McGuiness has a pan-European Awakening over 996-1024, which he calls the Russian Awakening since Russia becomes Christian at this time. Since my focus in on Western Europe and England, I would call it the Peace of God Awakening since it was at the center of the millenarian Peace of God movement. For England specifically I have assembled the following data.

Bldg. Index: 960-987: 23/28; 988-1015 5/28; 1016-1045: 9/30

Building index supports a 988-1015 stressful period

Cast of characters
Artist archetype Aethelred II (968-1016), King of England 979-1013, 1014-1016
Prophet archetype Edric Stroena (d1017)
Artist archetype Sweyn Forkbeard (c965-1014) King of Denmark 986–1014, king of England 1013-14
Prophet archetype Canute (c995-1035), King of England 1016-1035
Prophet archetype Emma of Normandy (985-1052)
Edmund Ironside (c990-1016) King of England 1016

Danish spiral
988 Battle at Wachet, Danes defeat local Saxon forces, local leader Streonwald killed
991 Viking chief Olaf Tryggvasson, with 93 ships, defeats Saxon Earl Byrhtnoth at Maldon
991 Ethelred II pays, the first Danegeld ransom of £10,000 to stop Viking attack on London.
992 Ethelred gathered an armada to destroy the Viking army, traitor in his tipped off the enemy
994 Olaf King of Norway and Sweyn King of Danes attack London, are repulsed, plunder southeast coast
994 Treaty: £22,000 paid to Olaf to depart, some Danes stay, hire on as mercenaries under Aethelred
997 Danes attack Cornwall, Devon, western Somerset, and south Wales
998 Danes attack Dorset, Hampshire, and Sussex.
999 Danes raided Kent,
1000 Danes withdraw to Normandy. Aethelred attacks Strathclyde
1001 Danish raids on Sussex and Devon
1001-2Danes ravaged west Sussex; Aethelred pays Danegeld of £24,000
1002 Aethelred marries Emma of Normandy
1002 Danish men in Saxon lands executed, reflecting frustration with Danish raids
1003 Wilton and its abbey attacked
1004 Sweyn sacked Norfolk in East Anglia
1005 Great Famine in England
1006 Destruction of Wallingford by Sweyn, Reading attacked, and burnt
1007 Edric Stroena becomes ealdorman of Mercia, is a strong supporter of Danegeld policy
1008 Aethelred ordered England to build a massive fleet of ships
1009 Much of fleet destroyed in storm; Naval strategy abandoned
1009 Thorkell the tall; threatens Kent, paid £3000; London attacked
1011 In a drunken rage Vikings murder Archbishop of Canterbury
1011 Outraged by murder Thorkell the Tall defected to Ethelred along with 45 ships
1011 The Vikings captured Canterbury, get payment of £48,000.
1012 Danegeld paid
1013 Sweyn Fork-Beard and Canute attack England, Ethelred’s son Edward flees to Normandy
1013 London surrenders to Sweyn, he becomes King, Aethelred goes to Normandy
1014 The Vikings of Ireland are finally defeated in the Battle of Clontarf, but Brian Boru is killed.
1014 Sweyn dies, Canute becomes ruler of Midlands,
1014 Ethelred returned to England; defeated the Danes in surprise attack; Canute leaves England
1014 Ethelred’s eldest son killed; Emma, aided by Edric Stroena, attempts to have son Edward made heir
1015 Canute invades England, Edric Stroena joins him
1016 Aethelred dies, succeed by son Edmund Ironside
1016 Canute defeats son Edmund at Addington, treaty gives Edmund Wessex, Canute the rest
1016 St Walston dies after seeing angelic vision while scything hay; miracles reported right afterward
1016 Edmund dies, Canute becomes king of all England
1017 Canute married Ethelred's widow; has Edric Stroena executed for fear of treachery

The Danish spiral of violence defines an unrest period from 988 to 1016. The actors in this turning are roughly split between Artists and Prophets, who are born in a Crisis and Unraveling. Adding 52 to the dates for the St. Dunstan crisis (945-964) gives 997-1016. Adding 26 to the beginning of the Peaceable High in 964 gives 990. Averaging the start dates of these two together gives the generational constellation start date as 993. Averaging this with the unrest dates and the building index dates (988-1015) gives 990 as the consensus turning start date. Adding 26 to this date gives the second prophet date in 1016, which is the same as the Artist date giving 1016 as the generational endpoint. Averaging the unrest and building dates in gives 1016 as the consensus turning ending date.

Canute Unraveling (1016-1046)

David McGuiness has a pan-European Awakening over 1024-1049 which he calls the Franconian Unraveling, reflecting events in Germany.

Building index 989-1015 5/27; 1016-1050: 12/35
Building index indicates period of lower economic stress over 1016-1050.

Cast of characters
Prophet archetype Canute (CA 990-1035),
Prophet archetype Emma of Normandy (985-1052)
Nomad archetype Edward the Confessor (1004-1066)
Nomad Harold Harefoot (1016-1040), illegitimate elder son of Canute, King 1035-1040
Nomad archetype Harthacnut (1018-1042) legitimate son of Canute and Emma, King 1040-1042

Timeline
1018 Canute paid large Danegeld to disperse the Viking fleet
1018 Godwin, son of Wulnoth, is made earl of East Wessex by Canute
1020 Godwin made earl of all Wessex by Canute
1023 Godwin married Gytha, sister of Danish earl Ulf, who was Canute's brother in law
1034 Robert I, Duke of Normandy attempted an invasion of England to make Edward king. Edward had support for several continental abbots, particularly Robert, Abbot of Jumièges
1035 Canute dies, elder son Harold claims throne; Archbishop of Canterbury refused to crown him because he was illegitimate
1035 At Witenagemot Leofric of Mercia & North supported Harold; Godwin & the South Harthcanute; England split between the half-brothers
1035 In Harthcanute's absence, South ruled by his mother Emma of Normandy and Godwin
1036 Aethelred' sons Alfred and Edward come to England to visit mother Emma
1036 Apparently Emma now backs her sons with Aethelred for King, Godwin switches from Harthcanute to Harold
1036 Alfred captured by Godwin, who handed him over to Harold who blinded him; Edward retreats to Normandy
1037 Harold becomes king of all England, Emma flees to Normandy
1040 Harold dies; Harthacnut becomes king
1041 Childless Harthacnut, seriously ill, summons half-brother Edward to England probably to make him heir
1040 Harold dies; Harthacnut becomes king
1041 Childless and seriously ill, Harthacnut summons Edward to England, probably to make him heir
1042 Harthacnut dies, Edward becomes king, initially is wildly popular as he represents a return to Saxon rule
1043 Sweyn Godwinson appointed to an earldom in the south-west midlands
1045 Edward marries Edith daughter of Godwin
1043 Emma of Normandy's advisor Stigand removed as bishop of Elmham, returns to favor soon after
1045 Harold Godwinson becomes Earl of East Anglia
1047 Godwin's son Sweyn banished, his cousin Beorn and brother Harold split his earldom

No clear spirals of violence consistent with a period of lower stress. The dating is already determined from the adjacent turnings.

Norman Invasion Crisis (1046-1071)

David McGuiness has a pan-European Awakening over 1049-1071 which he calls the Byzantine Crisis, reflecting events in the Eastern Roman Empire.

Building index: 1016-1045: 9/30; 1046-1071 10/26; 1072-1097: 50/26

Building index suggests a period of economic stress ending around 1071

Timeline
1042 Harthacnut dies, Edward becomes king, initially is popular as he represents a return to Saxon rule
1043 Emma of Normandy's advisor Stigand removed as bishop of Elmham, returns to favor soon after
1043 Sweyn Godwinson appointed to an earldom in the south-west midlands
1045 Edward marries Edith daughter of Godwin
1045 Harold Godwinson becomes Earl of East Anglia
1047 Godwin's son Sweyn banished, his cousin Beorn and brother Harold split his earldom
1049 Sweyn returns; reinstatement opposed by brother Harold and cousin Beorn
1049 Sweyn murders Beorn; goes into exile; Edward grants Beorn's earldom to his nephew Ralph.
1050 Edward abolished the Danegeld initially imposed by Aethelred
1051 Edward rejected Godwin relation for Archbishop of Canterbury, appt. Norman Robert of Jumièges

Edward-Godwin conflict

Cast of Characters
Artist archetype Leofric (968-1057) Earl of Mercia and husband of Lady Godiva
Prophet archetype Emma of Normandy (985-1052), Mother of Edward the Confessor
Prophet archetype Stigand (d 1072) advisor to Emma and Edward, Archbishop of Canterbury (1052-1070)
Nomad archetype Siward (c1000-1055) Earl of Northumbria 1041-1055
Nomad archetype Robert I (1000-1035) Duke of Normandy 1027-1035, nephew of Emma
Nomad archetype Aelfgar Leofricson (c1000-62) Earl of East Anglia 1051-2,1053-7, of Mercia 1057-62
Nomad archetype Godwin, Earl of Wessex (1001-1053)
Nomad archetype Edward the Confessor (1003-1066) King of England 1042-1066
Nomad archetype Robert of Jumièges, Bishop of London (1044-51) Archbishop of Canterbury (1051-55)
Hero archetype Harold Godwinson, King of England (1022-1066)

Timeline
1051 Jumièges claimed Godwin illegally held some archiepiscopal estates.
1051 Edward’s brother-in-law has an affray in Dover; Godwin ordered to punish town; after investigation he refused.
1051 Archbishop Robert accused Godwin of plotting to kill the king, just as he had killed his brother Alfred
1051 Godwin musters an army; Leofric of Mercia & Siward of Northumbria muster armies in support of king; Godwin & sons leave England
1051 Edward sent Edith to a nunnery, perhaps because she was childless. Jumièges urges divorce
1052 Sweyn goes on pilgrimage and dies on way back.
1052 Godwin returns with an armed force; gains the support of the navy, burghers, and peasants
1052 Leofric and Siward remain neutral; Edward restores Godwin and Harold as earls; Jumièges fled; Edith restored as queen
1052 Bishop Stigand, who had mediated the 1051 & 1052 crises appointed Archbishop of Canterbury
1053 Godwin dies, son Harold becomes Duke of Wessex, other sons are not earls
1055 Harold's brother Tostig becomes Earl of Northumbria after Siward's death
1057 Harold's brother Gyrth becomes Earl of East Anglia
1057 Godwin brothers controlled all of England except Mercia. Edward begins to withdraw from politics
1065 Northumbrian revolt against Tostig, King supports Tostig, Harold does not, Tostig exiled
1065 Tostig succeeded by Morcar as Earl of Northumbria
1065 Edward suffers a serious of strokes after his defeat in Tostig affair; dies in the next year
1066 Edward dies; Harold becomes king

Norman conquest

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Harold Godwinson, King of England (1022-1066)
Hero archetype Tostig Godwinson (d 1066) Earl of Northumbria 1055-1065
Hero archetype Morcar, Earl of Northumbria 1065-66
Hero archetype Edwin, Earl of Mercia 1062-71
Hero archetype William the Conqueror (1028-1087)
Hero archetype Hereward the Wake (c1035-1072) resistance leader

1066 Harold Godwinson defeats Harald Hardraada, who dies in the Battle of Stamford Bridge (Sep 25th).
1066 William, Duke of Normandy, defeats Saxon king Harold in the Battle of Hastings (Oct 14th).
1068 Exeter falls to William
1069 An attack by Danish invasion fleet led by Sweyn Estrithson fought off by garrison at Sandwich
1069 William's forces defeat rebels in the North and Midlands.
1070 The Scottish king attacked towns in the north of England.
1070 In revolt against the Norman invaders, Hereward the Wake sacks the abbey at Peterborough
1071 Edwin and Morcar sought to rebel but Edwin betrayed by his own retinue and killed.
1071 Morcar joined the rebellion at the Isle of Ely, tactically organized by Hereward the Wake
1071 The rebels Hereward the Wake and Morcar on the Isle of Ely defeated by William the Conqueror
1072 Treaty of Abernethy between William and Malcolm III of Scotland; Malcolm paid homage to William.
1072 Council of Winchester: Lanfranc reorganized bishoprics; Canterbury established as senior to York.
1075 Revolt of the Earls fails: last revolt against William

The two spirals, the internal crisis between a weak king and his overly strong earls, and the immediately following external crisis of multiple invasions together define an unrest period from 1051-1075. The bldg. index have an estimated date of 1071 for the end of the stress period. For generations we have an interesting situation. For the early part of the turning the actors are an unusual mix of nomads and prophets, with even an artist thrown in. Adding 78, 52 and 26 to the starts of the prior 1T, 2T and 3Ts (964, 990, 1016) gives 1042 in all three cases. Averaging this with the 1051 beginning of the unrest period gives 1046 as the consensus start date. Actors at the end of the turning were mostly heroes, with probably some artists in supporting roles. Adding 52 and 26 to the start dates of the 3T and 4T give 1068 in both cases. Averaging this with the 1075 unrest date and the 1071 Bldg. date gives 1071 and the consensus for the end of this 4T.

Domesday High (1071-1094)

David McGuiness has a pan-European Awakening over 1071-1095 which he calls the Cluniac High, reflecting the rise of the Cluniac reform popes and the emergence of the church as a key political actor. This follows the economic expansion spearheaded by the rise of the Cluniac monasteries in the 10^th century and the social and cultural revolution coming from the Peace of God and Truce of God movements during the 11^th century. This rising authority of the church will come into conflict with secular authorities in the 12^th century and help set the legal basis for the separation of church and state that will aid in the development of capitalism, science and philosophical ideas that define Western civilization down to modern times.

1046-1071 10/26; 1072-1097: 50/26; 1098-1119: 20/26

The building index gives an estimate of 1069-1093 for the period of low economic stress.

Cast of characters
Hero archetype William the Conqueror (1028-1087)
Artist archetype Robert Curthose (1054-1134)
Artist archetype William II Rufus (1056-1100)

Timeline
1072 Council of Winchester: Lanfranc reorganized bishoprics; Canterbury confirmed as head of English Church instead of York.
1075 Revolt of the Earls: last revolt against William
1077 Bayeux tapestry commission by Odo, Bishop of Bayeux
1081 William the Conqueror tours Wales; met with leader Rhys ap Tewdwr; accepted him as vassal for a yearly payment
1085 Danish Vikings make a final attempt to conquer England but fails.
1086 Oath of Salisbury, Williams most important vassals and tenants in England swear allegiance
1086 Domesday Book
1088 Rebellion aims to put Robert Curthose as king in place of William Rufus; it failed
1091 William Rufus renews agreement with Scots

No obvious spirals present at this time, which is consistent with a 1T. The dates for this turning are determined from the adjacent turnings.

Henry I Awakening (1094-1125)

Part A. The turning in Economics

Bldg. Index: 1072-1097: 50/26; 1098-1123: 47/26; 1024-1150: 111/27

High economic stress period over 1098-1123

Part B The turning in Culture

The pan-European turning at this time is called the Crusader Awakening (1095-1122) by McGuiness. It was centered on three developments:

1. the First Crusade, proclaimed by Pope Urban II at the Council of Clermont in 1095, which itself
   was an outgrowth of the Pax Dei millenarian movement from the previous awakening
2. the Investiture crisis, which led to a the papal revolution, legal reforms and the rise of the university during the unfolding century
3. the Cistercian monastic movement

I describe these in more detail here.

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Anselm (1033-1109) Archbishop of Canterbury
Artist archetype Robert Curthose (1054-1134) Duke of Normandy,
Artist archetype William II Rufus (1056-1100) King of England
Artist archetype Henry I (1068-1135) King of England

Both William and Henry experienced conflict with the church as part of the ongoing investiture crisis as described in the timeline below:

1089 Archbishop of Canterbury Lanfranc dies, William II seizes archbishopric's lands, leaves seat vacant
1093 William, seriously ill, allows Anselm to become archbishop, accepts homage & returns lands
1093 Anselm offered £500 for William’s war effort; William refused, wanting more. Later, he decided settle, but the money had gone to the poor
1093 Anselm insisted he was required by Church rules to receive the pallium from pope Urban. William refused, as he did not recognize Urban as pope
1095 At a council of bishops and nobles, bishops backed William; nobles backed Anselm
1095 Papal legate came to William with pallium; made deal: William acknowledged Urban but secured right to give permission for clerics to receive/obey papal letters.
1095-97 William blocked Anselm's efforts at church reform
1097 Another money dispute leads to William’s ultimatum: Anselm to submit or go into exile. Anselm left
1099 Urban renewed the ban on lay investiture and on clerics doing homage
1100 Henry recalls Anselm
1103 Archbishop of Canterbury Anselm and Henry I conflict over investiture
1105 Anselm exiled
1107 Concordat of London: Henry gave up investiture; prelates still had to do homage for their lands like any secular vassal.

The crisis unfolded almost as soon as Anselm became Archbishop in 1093 and was resolved by the Concordat of London in 1107. This Concordat was a forerunner of the Concordat of Worms in 1122 which resolved the broader European investiture crisis and which provides the date for the end of McGuiness’s Crusader Awakening.

Another Crusader Awakening theme that played a role in England was the Crusade itself. Robert took part in the Crusade, while William and Henry did not, using the time to build their power instead. The Templar movement that arose from the Crusade arrived in England in England in 1128. The third theme of the Crusade Awakening, the Cistercian movement, did not play a role in England until the order’s first monastery was founded in 1128. One of the few monastic orders to arise in Britain, the Savigniac Order, was founded in Wales by Vitalis of Mortain in 1105.

Combining the church-state conflict episode with the religious developments through 1128 gives a spiritual period over 1093-1128.

Part C The turning in Politics
Artist archetype Robert Curthose (1054-1134) Duke of Normandy,
Artist archetype William II Rufus (1056-1100) King of England
Artist archetype Henry I (1068-1135) King of England
Prophet archetype Louis VI (1081-1137) King of the Franks 1108-1137
Prophet archetype Fulk V (1092-1143) Count of Anjou 1109-1129

A Butlerian spiral of violence about the succession from William the Conqueror was resolved at this time:

Resolution of William the Conqueror’s succession (1088-1106)
1087 William I dies, eldest Robert Curthose gets Normandy, 2^nd son William II gets England, 3^rd son Henry gets cash
1088 Rebellion aims to put Robert Curthose as king of England in place of William Rufus; it failed
1091 William II invades Normandy; received some territory and makes peace with his brother
1100 William II dies, Henry I takes the throne of England.
1100 Henry I issues Charter of Liberties to build Norman noble support.
1100 Henry I marries Matilda, daughter of Scot king & descendent of Saxon king Edmund to build English support
1101 Robert Curthose invades England; is persuaded to leave for annual payment of £2,000
1105-6 Henry I seizes Normandy from his brother Robert Curthose. Robert captured and imprisoned for the rest of his life.

After the resolution of the issues with his brothers, Henry faced fresh challenges to Normandy which were resolved by the marriage of his daughter Matilda to his chief adversary, the Count of Anjou.

French threats to Normandy (1108-1128)
1108 Henry refused to give homage to new French King Louis VI, Louis threatens war, truce agreed upon
1111-3 Rebellion in Anjou, Henry I sides with his nephew Theobald of Blois against Louis VI
1115-20 Rebellion in Normandy, backed by Louis VI, resolved by Henry I in his favor
1123-4 Rebellion in Normandy, supported by Fulk V, Count of Anjou
1128 Henry’s daughter Matilda marries Fulk’s son Geoffrey Plantagenet, Angevin threat ended

Although this spiral was not resolved until 1128, the violence ended in 1124 and if we combine this spiral of violence with that of the succession crisis we get a period of political unrest over 1088-1124.

All told we have an economic (building)-based dating of 1098-1123, a political unrest-based dating of 1088-1124, and a religious-based dating of 1093-1128. Artists were the dominant actors at turning start with prophets playing a significant role by the end. Adding 52 and 26 to the 1046 and 1071 start dates for the previous 4T (1046) and 1T (1071) gives 1098 and 1097 which averaged give the generational consensus as 1097. Averaging start dates for the for the other three indicators gives 1094 as the consensus start date for this turning. Prophets played more of a role at the end of the this turning. The generational dates for these generations are obtained by adding 52 and 26 to the start of the previous 1T and this 2T to give 1123 for both. Averaging this with the end dates for the other three indicators gives 1125 for the consensus.

The Anarchy Unraveling (1125-1149)

Part A. The turning in Economics

Bldg. Index: 1098-1123: 47/26; 1124-1150: 111/27 1151-1174: 54/24

A period of low stress is indicated for 1124-1150

The pan-European unraveling at this time is called the Plantagenet Unraveling (1122-1147) by McGuiness.

Part B. The turning in Politics

Artist archetype Henry I (1068-1135) King of England
Prophet archetype Stephen I (1192-1154) King of England
Nomad archetype Matilda (1102-1167), Henry’s sister-son
Nomad archetype Robert of Gloucester (before 1100-1147) Henry’s bastard son
Nomad archetype Geoffrey Plantagenet (1113-1151) Count of Anjou 1129-51 Duke of Normandy 1144-51

An interesting comparison can be made between Stephen and his uncle Henry I, both of whom were pious men by medieval standards. Henry was a champion of the establishment Cluny order that had initiated its major social impact 173 years before he became king. This suggests an establishmentarian “organization man” mindset characteristic of the Artist archetype. Stephen was a champion of the new, radical Cistercian order that had begun its ongoing social impact just 20 years before his first regnal year, during the just completed Awakening, a response characteristic of the Prophet archetype.

For this turning there is again a succession issue because arising from Henry’s lack of legitimate sons.

Succession issue arises 1120-1127
1118 Henry’s wife dies, having borne only two surviving children, William and Matilda
1120 William dies in a ship wreck, leaving no male heir
1121 Henry remarries in failed attempt to obtain new heir

Prelude to civil war 1127-1139
1127 Henry resolves to make his daughter Matilda heir; has Barons swear allegiance to her
1128 Henry’s daughter Matilda marries Geoffrey Plantagenet, Count of Anjou
1135 Matilda proposes Henry give her Norman castles & have nobility swear allegiance; Henry refuses
1135 Henry dies, his sister-son Stephen seizes throne
1136-7 Geoffrey Plantagenet invades Normandy, Stephen buys him off with payment of 2000 marks/yr.
1138 Robert, Earl of Gloucester, bastard son of Henry, rebels, supporting Matilda's claim
1138 Geoffrey Plantagenet invades Normandy again
1139 In prep for invasion, Stephen creates string of loyal earls; removes potentially disloyal bishops

Civil War 1139-1147
1139 Robert and Matilda invade England; gain foothold in SW England
1141 Stephen captured at battle of Lincoln; Matilda elected queen, but a hostile mob drove her from London before she could be crowned
1141 Stephen's wife Matilda & William of Ypres capture Robert Gloucester at Rout of Winchester
1141 Matilda agrees to prisoner exchange, Stephen for Robert
1142 Stephen re-asserts power and besieges Matilda at Oxford
1141 Geoffrey Plantagenet captures Southern Normandy
1144 Geoffrey captures Norman capital Rouen, Louis VI recognizes him as Duke of Normandy
1143-7 War stalemate, violence disruptive to East Anglia & Stephen's lands in the SE; Angevin lands around Gloucester & Bristol & Northern England largely unaffected
1147 Robert of Gloucester dies; Matilda gives up and leaves England for good the next year.

Matilda’s defeat spells the end of the conflict between Stephen and Matilda, and serves as an unresolved unrest period over 1127-1147. Unresolved unrest is characteristic of nonsocial moment turnings (1Ts & 3Ts) when stress is low spirals are not pursued to a conclusive end. Another example of such an unresolved unrest period was the 1296-1305 period during which Edward I contended with Scottish resistors like William Wallace, which helped assign that period into a 1T.

Angevin Crisis (1149-1175)

Part A. The turning in Economics

Bldg. Index: 1124-1150: 111/27 1151-1174: 54/24 1175-1201: 59/27

The pan-European unraveling at this time is called the Barbarossan Crisis (1147-1176) by McGuiness.

Part B. The turning in Politics

Resolution of Succession Issue 1147-1153

Cast of characters
Prophet archetype David I (1084-1153) King of Scotland 1124-1153
Prophet archetype Stephen I (1092-1154) King of England, Henry I’s sister’s son
Nomad archetype Eleanor of Aquitaine (c1123-1204)
Nomad archetype Louis VII (1120-1280) King of France 1137-1180
Hero archetype Henry II (1133-1189) King of England
Hero archetype Geoffrey FitzEmpress (1134-1158) Count of Nantes, brother of Henry II

Timeline
1147 Matilda’s son 14 yo Henry Plantagenet goes to England to continue fight, leaves in same year
1149 Henry goes to England; is knighted by David I of Scotland; his war plans unravel; returns to Normandy.
1150 Geoffrey makes Henry Duke of Normandy.
1150 Louis VII attacks Normandy in response. Peace settlement: Louis gets disputed Vexin province; Henry does homage as duke of Normandy.
1151 Geoffrey Plantagenet dies, Henry becomes Count of Anjou
1151 Louis VII leads war coalition, including Henry's brother Geoff against Henry; Steven moves against Henry's English possessions
1151 Henry stabilizes Norman border against Louis, Louis falls ill & withdraws, which forces Geoffrey to come to terms with Henry
1152 Henry marries Eleanor of Aquitaine, gaining huge French territories
1152 Stephen captures Newbury Castle
1153 Henry invades England makes alliance with the Earl of Leicester gaining control of many castles.
1153 Stephen's son and heir Eustace dies.
1153 Treaty of Winchester: Barons’ want peace; Stephen makes deal with Henry: peace in exchange for making Henry his heir.
1154 Henry crowned King of England; Stephen's other son William and Henry's brothers Geoffrey and William died over the next few years removing the most likely claimants to the throne

Conflict with Thomas Becket 1162-1174
Prophet archetype Richard de Lucy (1089-1179) Chief Justicar 1156-57
Nomad Archetype Thomas Becket (1118-1170) Archbishop of Canterbury 1162-1170
Nomad Archetype Robert of Bishop's Bridge (1115-1181) Archbishop of York 1154-1181
Hero archetype Richard of Ely (1130-1198) Lord High Treasurer 1156-1196
Hero archetype Henry II (1133-1189) King of England 1154-89
Artist archetype Henry the Young King (1155-1183)
Artist archetype Richard I the Lionhearted (1157-99), King of England 1189-1199
Artist archetype Geoffrey (1158-1186), Duke of Brittany

Timeline
1155 Henry makes his friend Thomas Becket chancellor; he served Henry's needs well
1162 Becket becomes Archbishop of Canterbury; Henry expected Becket would be continue to serve Henry's needs
1162-4 Becket changed, now assiduously represented church interests against Henry
1164 Constitutions of Claredon restrict ecclesiastical privileges/power of Church courts, pope opposed
1164 Key issue, clergy who committed crimes should be tried by state court as well as church court.
1164 Exiled; Becket flees to France, is protected by French king
1166 Richard de Lucy, joint Chief Justicar in England, excommunicated by Thomas Becket
1167 Becket threatened excommunication & interdict, but pope preferred diplomacy; sent legate
1170 Henry agrees to compromise with legate that allows Becket to return
1170 Henry's son crowned as king by Robert, archbishop of York as snub to Becket, Becket excommunicates Robert & the young king
1170 Upon receiving news, Henry made intemperate remarks, leading to his knights executing Becket
1173-4 Public outrage over Becket fuels baronial revolt involving Henry's 3 oldest sons
1174 Henry does public penance at Becket's tomb for this crime

Conflict with family

Hero archetype Henry II (1133-1189) King of England 1154-89
Artist archetype Henry the Young King (1155-1183)
Artist archetype Richard I the Lionhearted (1157-99), King of England 1189-1199
Artist archetype Geoffrey (1158-1186), Duke of Brittany

Timeline
1168 Henry decides sons’ inheritance: England & Normandy to eldest Henry, Aquitaine to 2nd son Richard; Brittany to #3 son Geoffrey.
1169 Montmirail peace talks: Henry's sons give homage to Louis for their future inheritances in France
1173-4 Desire for lands to rule lead Henry's 3 oldest sons to revolt with aid from the barons
1174 War against Henry II ends; his sons are pardoned and return to his service

These three spirals collectively define an unrest period over 1147-1174. Note that all three spirals were resolved, as opposed to the succession conflict in the previous turning. This observation is in part an artifact of my choice to divide the Anarchy into unraveling and crisis portions. The divider is a change in protagonist from Nomad archetypes Matilda and Robert to hero archetype Henry II. The first portion featured a classic Prophet-Nomad 3T struggle in which the Prophet holds the upper hand and the Nomads can never win. That Henry II is a hero is clear based on his empowerment at a young age by his French successes at age 18-19 and his gaining the English throne at age 20-21.

If you look at the timeline there is no apparent reason why Henry should have beat Stephen. His first two invasions were busts. In the second one, 16 year old Henry ran out of money to pay his mercenaries and couldn’t even get back to home in Normandy. Incredibly, it was Stephen (the guy he was trying to depose) who gave him the money to avoid a mutiny and to get back home. Special favor of a prophet to the young hero? When he came back four years later he was a grown man with French victories to his credit. Nevertheless, his military campaign in 1153 was not particularly successful, both sides exchanged blows, Stephen just suddenly decided to capitulate to Henry, declaring him heir instead of his own son.

In the timeline I point out that the barons wanted peace and that this was a factor in Stephen’s decision. McGuiness has this to say about the issue:

It is significant, therefore, that feudal lords strove to limit private warfare and suppress disorder within their fiefs by means of private treaties among themselves. These documents show that feudalism and anarchical conditions were incompatible. The feudal lords objected to a superior authority that had grown too powerful, but not to the orderly government which that authority had achieved.

Not addressed is why the Barons insisted on peace in 1153 and not in late 1140’s, when Stephen had the upper hand over Henry. One reason might be the barons were under more economic stress in the latter period, reflecting a shift to increasing economic stress around 1150 according to the building indicator. Another might be the shifting generational composition of the nobility from principled Prophet to pragmatic Nomad. That is, the shifting zeitgeist from a late 3T to an early 4T may have helped “push” Stephen to settle. Or to put it inversely, Stephen’s settling implies a turning change from the Matilda years.

Note that this turning contains a church-state political struggle between Henry and Thomas Becket that is analogous to his grandfather’s conflict with Anselm two turnings earlier. Both were resolved, yet one is considered part of a 2T and the other part of a 4T. I can think of two reasons for my labeling. One is the presence of other religious movements (e.g. Crusader and Cistercian movements) occurring along with the Anselm conflict, but not with the Becket conflict, making the former a 2T issue and the latter a 4T one. The other reason is a consideration is Henry’s relations with his sons compared to Stephen’s with his son. Consider replacing the archetypes given above from Nomad to Artist and from Hero to Prophet. Can you see a Hero king disinheriting his sons in favor of prophet claimant like Stephen did? Henry II didn’t disinherit his sons, even when they actively rebelled against him. Neither did William the Conqueror, both of which I have labeled as hero archetypes, not prophets. If this turning were a 2T, then the zeitgeist shift around 1150 would be from Hero leadership to Artist leadership, and barons would continue the struggle until a victor emerged.

Also if the Henry I turning were a 4T this would mean a Nomad archetype choosing to go on Crusade, leaving his realm in the charge of his brother who had tried to take it by force just a few years earlier. But this is just what Artist or Nomad Robert Curthose did. The pragmatic, Nomad approach would have been for Henry, who had no realm, to gain renown by going on the Crusade, with his eldest brother’s blessing (and the promise of a land to rule upon his successful return). Instead Robert did what a Christian warrior should do (go on Crusades) as did his brother William (put his kingdom first). Instead it was the considerably younger Henry (who had been made a “Lackland” by his father William the Conqueror) who, as a James Dean-type rebel Artist didn’t “do as he should” and go on Crusade, just another rebel Artist (his great grandson John Lackland) would do a saeculum later.

In summary we have an unrest period over 1147-1174 and an economic (building-based) stress period that began around 1151. The early portion of this crisis features important roles by prophets, nomads and heroes. Adding 78, 52, and 26 years to the start dates for the previous 1T, 2T and 3T of 1073, 1094, and 1125 gives 1151, 1146, 1151. Averaging these together gives a generational constellation start date of 1149. Averaging this with the other two dates gives a consensus start date of 1149 for this turning. The latter part of this turning features actors in the hero and artist generations. For this date we add 52 and 26 to the beginning of the previous 3T and this turning to get 1177 and 1176 which average to give a constellation value of 1177. Averaging this with the unrest period end in 1174 gives 1175 as the consensus date for the end of the turning.

Leonine High (1175-1201)

Part A. The turning in Economics

This is the earliest period for which I have price data. The price-based economic stress indicator shows low stress over the 1176-1202 period.

Bldg. Index: 1151-1174: 54/24 (2.25); 1175-1201: 59/27 (2.19); 1202-1221: 19/20 (0.95)

The bldg. index is consistent with the price indicator

The pan-European unraveling at this time is called the Saladin High (1176-1204) by McGuiness.

Part B. The turning in Politics

External military campaigns by Henry and Richard

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Henry II (1133-1189) King of England 1154-1189
Artist archetype Richard I the Lionhearted (1157-1199) King of England 1189-1199

Timeline
1171 Henry II gains control of Southern Ireland
1177 Unable to govern through an Irish proxy, Henry creates system of fiefs at council of Oxford
1179 Rebellion in Gascony. Richard captures "impregnable" fort at Taillebourg in 2 days
1181-2 Richard faced revolt over succession Angoulême, put down with father and elder brother's aid
1190 Richard I goes on Crusade
1191 Conquest of Cyprus
1191 Capture of Acre
1192 Peace Settlement with Saladin
1192 Richard captured by Leopold V, Duke of Austria; held for ransom
1194-8 Richard reconquers Normandy, after French conquest during his imprisonment
1196-8 Château Gaillard, innovative castle believed to be designed by Richard I built to support campaign against Phillip

A series of mostly successful campaigns consistent with a High turning.

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Henry II (1133-1189) King of England 1154-1189
Artist archetype Richard I the Lionhearted (1157-1199) King of England 1189-1199
Artist archetype John Lackland (1166-1216) King of England 1199-1216
Artist archetype Phillip Augustus (1165-1223) King of France 1180-1223

Succession resolution
1183 Richard refuses to pay homage to brother Henry; Geoffrey and Henry invade Aquitaine
1183 Henry the Young King dies, making Richard next in line
1183 Richard refused Henry II's order to come to England and leave Aquitaine to John
1184 Geoffrey & John assail Richard, conflict was stalemated, tense settlement in the family
1186 Geoffrey of Brittany dies
1187 Richard takes the cross; Henry delays going on crusade
1188 Henry denies Richard's demand to be made heir, Richard allied with French king, war begins
1189 Terminally ill Henry submits to Phillip and Richard; Richard made heir, Henry dies shortly after

Although much jostling, succession ends up proceeding in the proper order with Richard the eldest succeeding his father. There is no protracted civil strife, particularly in England. Although John plots against Richard while he was absent, nothing comes of it and Richard forgives him. The fighting involved all happens in France, where is often spurred on by the machinations of French king Phillip Augustus.

Governance

Cast of characters
Nomad archetype Ranulf de Glanvill (c1112-1190) Chief Justicar 1180-89
Hero archetype Richard of Ely (1130-1198) Lord High Treasurer 1156-1196
Hero archetype Henry II (1133-1189) King of England 1154-1189
Artist archetype Richard I the Lionhearted (1157-1199), King of England 1189-1199
Artist archetype Hubert Walter (1160-1205) Archbishop of Canterbury 1193-1205

Timeline
1180 Royal officials took direct control of mints; number reduced to 10. Revenues greatly increased
1188 Henry's legal reforms codified by the Treatise of Glavill
1188 Saladin tithe (10%)
1193 Richard Ransom tax (25%) spearheaded by Hugh Walter failed to raise the required 150,000 marks
1194 Carucage introduced by Richard to raise more money

Richard’s advisors introduced heavy taxes that at other times would spur civil strife or deposition, but are accepted without much protest by the English.

Magna Carta Awakening in England: 1201 to 1224

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of price-based stress over 1202-1227. The price level nearly doubled over first three years of John’s reign (1199-1202)

Bldg. Index: 1175-1201: 59/27 (2.19); 1202-1221: 19/20 (0.95); 1222-1250: 48/29 (1.67)

The bldg. index supports a period of high stress over 1202-21. Averaging the dates for price stress, bldg. index and start of the inflation burst gives a consensus economic stress period of 1201-1224.

Part B. The turning in Politics

There are three inter-related spirals of conflict during this period.

Struggle between John and Phillip

Cast of Characters
Nomad archetype Eleanor of Aquitaine (c1123-1204)
Artist archetype John Lackland (1166-1216) King of England 1199-1216
Artist archetype Phillip Augustus (1165-1223) King of France 1180-1223
Artist archetype Baldwin IX (1172–c1205) Count of Flanders 1194-1205
Artist archetype William des Roches (1165–1222 Seneschal of Anjou
Artist archetype Reginald (c1165–1227) Count of Boulogne 1190-1227
Artist archetype Hugh IX Lusignan (1163/1168-1219) Count of March 1199-1219
Prophet archetype Prince Louis of France (1187-1226)
Prophet archetype Ferdinand, Count of Flanders (1188-1233)
Prophet archetype Arthur I, Duke of Brittany (1187-1203)
Prophet archetype Isabella of Angouleme (c1188–1246) Queen of England 1200-1216

Timeline
1199 Succession conflict: John vs. Arthur, son of Geoffrey, John’s elder brother
1199 Arthur’s claim backed by most Breton, Maine & Angevin nobles + Phillip II
1199 John backed by most English & Norman nobles+his mother Eleanor, Duchess of Aquitaine.
1199 William de Roches, seneschal of Anjou persuaded to switch sides from Arthur to John
1199 Baldwin of Flanders and Reginald of Boulogne renewed anti-French alliances they had with Richard
1200 With the shift towards John; Phillip II accepts John as heir to Henry's lands in Treaty of Le Goulet
1200 Isabella married King John. She had been betrothed to Hugh IX, Count of Lusignan.
1200 John offered no compensation to Hugh, as John was rightful feudal lord over the Lusignans
1201 Lusignan uprising crushed by John, who also moved against Hugh’s brother Raoul in Normandy
1201 The Lusignans appealed John's actions in France to his feudal lord, Philip II.
1202 Philip summoned John to attend court; John refused.
1202 Philip declared John in breach of his feudal duties, reassigned most of John's French lands to Arthur
1202 War between Phillip II and John
1202 John and William de Roches surprised Arthur’s forces at Mirebeau; captured all rebel leaders
1203 Angered by mistreatment of prisoners, William de Roches & allies in Anjou and Brittany defected to Philip
1203 Arthur believed killed at John’s orders.
1203-4 Brittany revolts, Phillip II conquers Normandy, Anjou and Poitou
1205 Baronial unrest prevents deployment of English forces to France
1206 John takes Anger, campaign stalemates; two-year truce signed
1206-12John raises revenue for future campaign, continues to build fleet
1212 John makes alliances with Ferdinand of Flanders and Reginald of Boulogne
1212 Baronial unrest prevents planned French campaign
1212 Phillips’s son Louis seizes Flanders in preparation for invasion of England
1212 John begins organizing defense against threatened French invasion
1213 John defeats French fleets.
1213 Baronial unrest puts off long-planned invasion to following year
1214 Phillip's victory at Bouvines ends John's attempt to recapture Normandy

Struggle with the pope

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Stephen Langton (c1150-1228)
Artist archetype Pope Innocent III (1160/1-1216)
Artist archetype John Lackland (1166-1216) King of England 1199-1216
Artist archetype Hubert Walter (1160-1205) Archbishop of Canterbury 1193-1205
Artist archetype John de Gray (c1170-1214) Bishop of Norwich 1200-1214, loyal servant of King John

Timeline
1205 Archbishop of Canterbury dies, John forces monks to elect Gray instead of their favorite, sent to Rome
1206 Pope decides on English-born Steven Langton, now a cardinal at Rome.
1207 John refuses to cooperate; pope threatens inderdict
1208 Interdict served
1209 John threatened with excommunication
1211 Excommunication served
1212 John accepts pope's demands, begins organizing defense against threatened French invasion
1214 Interdict lifted; John returns to France to continue the war

Struggle with the Barons

Cast of characters
Hero archetype William de Braose (1144/1153–1211) 4th Lord of Bramber
Hero William Marshal (1147–1219) 1st Earl of Pembroke 1189-1219
Artist archetype Hubert Walter (1160-1205) Chancellor 1199-1205
Artist archetype John Lackland (1166-1216) King of England 1199-1216
Artist archetype Geoffrey Fitz Peter (c1162–1213) Earl of Essex 1199-1213, Chief Justicar 1198-1213
Artist archetype Robert Fitzwalter (d1235) Baronial leader
Prophet archetype Peter des Roches (c1275-1238) Bishop of Winchester 1205-38; Chief Justicar 1213-14
Prophet archetype Walter de Gray (c1180-1255) Chancellor 1205-1214
Prophet archetype Prince Louis of France (1187-1226

Timeline
1204 John upbraided faithful servant William Marshal for doing homage to Phillip for his French lands
1207 John imposes income tax, raised 60K
1208 William was recalled and humiliated at court by John
1209 John demands money from various barons including former favorites like William de Braose
1209 When de Braose fails to pay a large fine, his wife and son were imprisoned, where they died
1210 Tallage on Jews raised 44 K
1212 Barons plot against John
1213 John meets with barons, crisis averted
1215 Magna Carta
1215 Start of civil war. Marcher lords such as William Marshal and Ranulf of Chester, remain loyal
1216 Rebel barons invited Prince Louis of France to lead them.
1216 John assembled a naval force to intercept Louis. It was dispersed in storm. Louis lands in Kent
1216 John dies of dysentery contracted on campaign. Barons start defecting from Louis to loyalist side
1217 War ends with royalist victories at the battles of Lincoln and Dover

There were a number of issues that led to the baronial revolt. One, which was to become a recurring theme, was favoritism. Like all leaders, John had advisors, the senior officials and royal agents who were essential to his day-to-day rule. He also had an entourage: close friends and knights who travelled around the country with him, and who played an important role in organizing and leading military campaigns.

Being a member of these inner circles brought huge advantages, as it was easier to gain favors from the king, file lawsuits, marry a wealthy heiress or have one's debts remitted. Many of these posts were filled by men from outside the normal ranks of the barons, often mercenary leaders from Poitou. Some of these individuals, such as Philip Marc, High Sheriff of Nottinghamshire, became infamous in England for their uncivilized behavior. Many of the barons came to see John’s household as a clique of low-born men enjoying royal favor at their expense.

A second issue was the policy of ira et malevolentia or “royal ill-will”. Suffering the king's ill-will meant difficulties in obtaining grants, honors or petitions. With the new economic and judicial measures introduced under John, ill-will had the potential to cripple any vassal that John perceived to be a threat. Many barons experienced ill-will, including members of his inner circle who had become too rich or powerful for John’s liking.

Taxation was a third factor. War expenditures required substantial taxation. John would impose scuttage 11 times during the 17 years of his reign as compared to 11 times during previous 64 years.
He experimented with an income tax and resorted to extortion at times. High taxes were levied in service to his brother Richard’s wars such as the Saladin tax (10% of all moveable property) and a similar 25% tax levied to pay Richard’s ransom. Richard’s ministers tried an array of revenue-raising strategies, including new taxes such as the carucage. These policies were unpopular, but did not lead to unrest.

There were situational differences between John and Richard that can explain this. One difference was Richards’ taxes were levied in good times, when large-scale building projects were easier to do. John was trying to squeeze ever more during hard times. Another was that Richard had some success in his wars, he did not lose his father’s empire like his brother. Finally, when on Crusade Richard was doing God’s work, as certified by the church, whereas his brother was not.

These spirals show a period of high unrest over 1199-1217.

Part C. The turning in Culture

I have already established that a European awakening was underway at this period with the rise of the Mendicant orders such as the Franciscans. That England was part of this awakening is strongly implied by this excerpt from an account of the coming of the Franciscan movement to England in 1224.

Robert Grosseteste, the great reforming bishop of his day, declared that the clergy corrupted the people. Ignorant and idle, they gambled, haunted taverns, rioted and committed every sort of sexual sin. Those who should have corrected them either lived far away or held too many different church positions to take care of any one of them, or were crooked themselves. Haughtiness marked the higher clergy.

By contrast, these first Franciscans lived simple, pure lives and embraced poverty. When they offended someone, they were instantly contrite and begged pardon. They walked barefooted and applied themselves to caring for the sick, preaching to the poor, singing and praying. The friaries they built were the simplest. The effect of their example was revolutionary.

The people crowded to hear these new teachers. The Franciscans made so many conversions that the order spread across England like a grass fire in a dry Summer. By mid-century there were fifty friaries and 1,500 friars. Robert Grosseteste became their lecturer early on.

Summary

We have an economic stress period from 1201-1224, and period of political unrest over 1199-1217 and an important cultural event in 1224. The principle actors at the beginning of the turning were artists, with a handful of heroes. By the end of the turning prophets had become players as well. To obtain the generation-based starting date we add 78 to the start of the previous Unraveling (when Heroes are born) in 1125, and 52 to the start of the previous crisis (when Artists were born) in 1149 to get 1203 and 1201, respectively. These average to give a consensus generational date of 1202. Averaging this with the start of the economic and political indicators in 1201 and 1199 gives 1201 as the consensus estimate for the start of the turnings. With this, generational end points of 1228 and 1227 were obtained by adding 26 and 52 to end of the previous 3T and 4T, when prophets and artists were born, respectively. These average to 1228. Averaging the economic, political, cultural and generational end dates of 1224, 1217, 1224, and 1228 gives 1224.

Henry III Unraveling (ca. 1224-1252)

McGuiness has both Richard I and his brother John as artists. As both men came to the throne during the High preceding the Magna Carta Awakening, this fits. As I see it Richard fits very well into the Artist archetype in its rising adult role of “doing as one should”. As the top of a warrior aristocracy, Richard was a warrior’s warrior, embracing war for the honor and sheer glory of it. A crusade was the ideal war for Richard, a just war for a holy cause with no complicating political aftermath. John, on the other hand, was very different. I see him as a late-wave James Dean-type rebellious artist. He chose to stress his role as ruler rather than warrior.

John’s son Henry was born in 1207 and was only nine when his father died in 1216 and he became King. Several regents made governmental decisions while Henry was in his minority. Henry began to issue charters on his own authority at age 20 in 1227 and so can be said to have come of age in a 2T. Thus, although he was born in the 2T, his unusually early coming of age meant he could be a prophet archetype as well as a nomad.

Henry was very pious, which is consistent with a prophet coming of age in a spiritual awakening. In The Divine Comedy, Dante sees Henry sitting outside the gates of Purgatory with other contemporary rulers. Unlike these others who neglected their spiritual welfare in favor of secular issues, Henry has been sent to Ante-Purgatory for neglecting his kingly duties out of an excess of religious piety.

As he aged Henry would insist more strongly that a monarch derived his legitimacy direct from God and not the councils of men and so needed to answer to nobody. He did so even when this course of action ended up leading to civil war. This emphasis on moral right over pragmatism is suggestive of a prophet archetype in mid-life.

So we have a prophet king, who initially does well. The 1230-1255 period is one of low stress. Six major religious buildings would be started during this period compared to 2 in the previous awakening and 3 in the subsequent 4T. There was one significant rebellion in 1233 that was quickly put down. Aside from some warnings and criticism of his handling of government finances it was smooth sailing until the bad harvests of 1256-57 kick up the 1256-81 period of high economic stress.

Montfort Crisis (1252-1279)

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of price-based stress over 1256-1281.

Bldg. Index: 1222-1250: 48/29 (1.66); 1251-1271: 14/21(0.67) 1272-1296: 15/25(0.60)

The bldg. index supports a period of high stress over 1251-71. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1253-1276.

Part B. The turning in Politics


Spiral of violence against the Jews

Timeline
1253 Jews forbidden to live in English towns w/o Jewish communities
1255 100 Jews killed after Christian boy dies after falling into cesspool in the Jewish quarter
1269 Jews persecuted
1275 Jews forbidden to lend at interest
1278 Jews executed for lending

English-Welsh wars

Cast of characters
Nomad archetype Llewelyn ap Gruffydd (1223–1282) Prince of Wales
Nomad archetype Henry III (1207–1272) King of England 1216-1272
Hero archetype Edward I (1239-1307)

Timeline
1256 Welsh leader Llewelyn ap Gruffydd invades the portion of Wales that had agreed to English rule
1257 Henry and Edward reclaim the Lost Territories
1260 Llewelyn ap Gruffydd, now titled the 'Prince of Wales' attacked the castle at Tenby
1267 Treaty of Shrewbury acknowledges Welsh Prince legitimacy in exchange for payments
1275 Prince of Wales reneges on payments
1276 First Welsh War
1282 Second Welsh War, Prince of Wales killed
1283 Second Welsh war ends, England takes direct control of Wales

Henry’s struggle with the barons

Cast of characters
Nomad archetype Henry III (1207–1272) King of England 1216-1272
Nomad archetype Simon de Montfort (1208-1265) 6th Earl of Leicester 1239-65
Hero archetype Edward I (1239-1307)

Timeline
1242 Montfort questions Henry's finances, start of buildup to Civil War
1258 Oxford Parliament, Henry agrees to committee to oversee state finance
1260 Committee disbands after failing to reach agreement
1261 Henry attempt to re-assert absolute power
1263 Fighting breaks out
1264 2nd barons war
1265 War ends with death of Montfort, Ordinary People's Parliament called to discuss finance

These three spirals define an unrest period stretching from 1253-1283.

Summary

We have an economic stress period from 1253-1276, and period of political unrest over 1253-1283. The principle actors at the beginning of the turning were Nomads. By the end of the turning Heroes had become players as well. To obtain the generation-based starting date we add 52 to the start of the previous Awakening (when Nomads are born) in 1201, and 26 to the start of the previous Unraveling (when Heroes were born) in 1224 to get 1253 and 1250, respectively. These average to give a consensus generational date of 1251. Averaging this with the start of the economic and political indicators, both in 1253 gives 1252 as the consensus estimate for the start of this turning. With this, generational end points of 1276 and 1278 were obtained by adding 26 and 52 to end of the previous 2T and 3T, when Nomads and Heroes were born, respectively. These average to 1277. Averaging the economic, political, and generational end dates of 1276, 1283 and 1277 gives 1279 as the consensus end of the turning.

Braveheart High (1279-1304)

Turning dates determined from adjacent turnings

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of low price-based stress over 1282-1306.

Bldg. Index: 1251-1271: 14/21(0.67) 1272-1296: 15/25(0.60) 1297-1325: 3/29(0.10)

The bldg. index supports a period of low stress over 1272-96. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1277-1302.

Part B. The turning in Politics

Scottish campaigns

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Edward I (1239-1307)
Hero archetype John Balliol (1249-1314) King of the Scots 1292-1296
Artist archetype William Wallace (c1275? -1305)

Timeline
1286 Scot King Alex III dies, Ed I arr. marriage tween Alex granddaughter & Ed II, girl dies b4 wed
1292 Ed I chooses John Baliol to be King of Scots
1295 Treaty between France and Scotland
1296 Ed II invades Scotland, defeats John Balliol
1296 Edward invades and defeats Scottish forces, set up English-led government
1297-8 Wallace revolt against English rule, Wallace defeated the following year
1300 Ed I campaigns in Scotland, Scots practice scorched earth tactics, treaty signed in 1302
1303 Wallace renews revolt
1305 Wallace captured and executed

Having finishing the 4T in such a successful manner it is easy to see Edward I as having the empowering coming of age experience characteristic of the hero archetype. Like his great uncle, Edward was a first-rate solider, he too went on a crusade, but this was before he was King. He is known as “the Hammer of the Scots” for his military prowess but also as “the English Justinian” for his work on reforming royal administration and common law.

Domestic issues

Cast of characters
Hero archetype Edward I (1239-1307)
Hero archetype Robert Burnell (1239-1292) Chancellor 1274-92, Bishop of Bath & Wells 1275-92
Hero archetype John Balliol (1249-1314) King of the Scots 1292-1296
Artist archetype William Wallace (c1275? -1305)

Timeline
1275 Statutes of Westminster I, 51 acts concerning a variety of issues, some still in force today
1285 Statutes of Westminster II, 50 acts concerning a variety of issues, some still in force today
1290 Quia Emptores law preventing tenants from alienating their lands to others by subinfeudation
1290 Edward I expels Jews
1292 English and Norman sailors fight with French sailors, leads to conflict with France
1294-5 Welsh rebel against demand they provide troops for French war
1299 Treaty with France, barons force Edward I to affirm sole right of Parliament to levy taxes
1295 “Model Parliament” with representation from commons, affirms taxes for French & Scottish wars
1297 Baronial opposition to French war, Ed I reaffirms charters and sails to France w/o noble support

Whereas his father had refused to acknowledge any role in policy formation save that of the King, Edward accepted Parliament and used it to help achieve his objectives for the nation. In 1290 we was able to levy a lay subsidy (tax on movable property for all non-religious property owners in the country) that raised £117,000, more than Richard’s Ransom tax a century before. He was able to levy four more subsidies as well as a large surtax on wool before Parliamentary opposition put an end to this level of taxation in 1297. Government revenues averaged £193,000 over 1290-1297, but fell to only £84,000 over 1298-1309. Revenues were needed as war broke out with France and the Welsh rose up in rebellion in 1294

But there was no civil war or significant revolt as had occurred for his father and grandfather. Some of this was probably due to low economic stress over 1282-1306. Some probably reflected the combination of hero archetypes in leadership positions such as the competent Robert Burnell, Lord Chancellor and conformist Artist archetypes in rising adulthood. That is, it was a High.

Famine Awakening in England (1304-31)

This turning featured mostly artists and prophets as players. Adding 52 to the start of the previous Crisis and 26 to the start of the previous High gives 1304 and 1305, respectively for the start of this turning in terms of generations, which average to give a generational date of 1304. The corresponding dates from economic stress and political unrest are 1302 and 1306. The average to give 1304 as the consensus turning start. Adding 52 and 26 to the ends of the prior 4T and 2T gives, 1331 and 1330, or 1331 on average. The economic and political dates are 1332 and 1330, which when averaged with the generation date gives a consensus date of 1331 for the end of this turning.

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of high price-based stress over 1307-32.

Bldg. Index: 1272-1296: 15/25(0.60); 1297-1325: 3/29(0.10); 1326-1352: 19/27(0.70)

The bldg. index supports a period of high stress over 1297-1325. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1302-1330.

Part B. The turning in Politics

Civil strife

Cast of Characters
Hero archetype Henry de Lacy (c1251-1311) 3rd Earl of Lincoln 1272-1311
Artist archetype Walter de Stapledon (1261-1326) Bishop of Exeter 1308-26 Treasurer 1320-1, 1322-25
Artist archetype Hugh Despenser, (1261-1326) 1^st Earl of Winchester
Artist archetype Guy de Beauchamp (c1272–1315) 10th Earl of Warwick
Artist archetype Robert the Bruce (1274–1329), King of Scotland 1306-29
Artist archetype Thomas (1278-1322) Earl of Lancaster 1296-1322
Prophet archetype Piers Gaveston (1282-1312)
Prophet archetype Edward II (1284-1327) King of England 1307-1327
Prophet archetype Hugh Despenser (c1286–1326), royal chamberlain 1318-1326
Prophet archetype Roger de Mortimer (1287–1330) 1st Earl of March
Prophet archetype Isabella of France (1295–1358) Queen of England 1308-1327

The core of the unrest was Edward’s many failings as a medieval king, which gradually undermined his legitimacy, until essentially no support remained for the king. The Gaveston affair shows one way this legitimacy was undermined:

The Gaveston Affair 1306-1313
1306 Edward I banishes son's favorite Piers Gaveston
1307 On his deathbed Edward I urges the nobles present to prevent Gaveston from returning.
1307 Edward II becomes king, Gaveston recalled
1308 Parliament banishes Gaveston; he returns in the next year.
1310 Barons appear at Parliament fully armed, alarmed, Edward agrees to a reform council
1310 The Lords Ordainers formed under Henry de Lacy.
1311 De Lacy dies; is replaced by Thomas, Earl of Lancaster.
1311 Lords Ordainers issue measures stripping Edward of most of his powers and banishing Gaveston
1311 Civil War imminent, Edward and Gaveston seek Scottish support, make no preparations for war
1312 Gaveston persuaded to surrender with guarantees of safety, and then is then executed
1313 Breach of faith splits the Ordainers, and civil war is prevented with peace treaty.

Edward’s neglect of his wife in favor of his close relationship with the handsome Piers Gaveston fueled rumors of the King’s homosexuality, which supported the developing belief that Edward was an unnatural son of his father Longshanks and simply lacked the makings for a good king. Unsurprisingly , Edward’s clear preference for Gaveston’s company did not endear him to his to Isabella, which would eventually factor into his demise.

Nevertheless opposition to Edward grew almost overnight. In his first year his vassals are insisting that he dismiss his friend Piers. Two years later they are threatening open war over Gaveston and now wish to practically strip him of his rights as King. The men who opposed prophet archetype Edward were mostly Artists led (initially) by a Hero. These men had served under Longshanks. Whether or not the deathbed scene is valid, the fact that this story was told suggests that the Lords Ordainers may initially have been motivated by a desire that Edward live up the example set by his father. Their conflict many reflect to some degree the old Hero-young Prophet generation gap archetypical of Awakenings. By insisting that it was his right and nobody’s business who he chose as advisors, Edward was rebelling against the sense of duty his father had stood for). Compare to the old prophet-young Hero relationship between Henry III and Edward I. Edward initially indulged his youthful rebelliousness in his flirtation with Montfort, but soon came to be a solid partner to his father.

And of course, always in the background is the economic stress, which according to my saecular model, lowers the irritability threshold of the populace, making the people less tolerant failure of leadership.

Scottish catastrophe; Edward loses power 1314-18
1314 English are routed at Bannockburn. Edward has no army to counter Lancaster, who had withheld his troops from the Scottish campaign.
1314 Thomas of Lancaster takes over the reins of government in wake of disaster
1318 Treaty of Leake restores Edward to throne with oversight by committee of nobles
1318 Pretender John Deydras claims he was rightful king (claims Edward and he switched as babies)

The defeat at Bannockburn had a crushing effect on Edward’s prestige. His father Longshanks also suffered setback in his wars in the 1290’s, which led to baronial opposition. Longshanks had a lot more success fighting the Welsh and Scots, wars for which there was strong support amongst his subjects, than did his son. Furthermore, he was careful to take the opposition seriously. He made sure to appear at a rally in which huge crowds enthusiastically hailed him as a royal rockstar before setting out on his failed French expedition. And he left the government in the hands of his loyal and capable ministers. But he also showed flexibility, making concessions when necessary. He did not push the revenue issue after the Crisis of 1297 and his revenue afterward was less than half what it had been before. And so there never was any threat of rebellion. Also, the low level of economic stress and the elder Hero-younger Artist constellation are not conducive to internal conflict (i.e. it was a High).

The Deydras affair in 1318 shows another example of how the legitimacy of the king was gradually degraded. John Deydras, a young clerk in Oxford, claimed that he was in fact the real son of Edward I, and so rightful king. Deydras physically resembled Edward, being tall and good-looking, except he was missing an ear. Deydras explained that as a baby, his nursemaid had allowed him to be attacked by a sow which bit off his ear. Fearing punishment, she had replaced him with a carter's baby, who had then grown up to become Edward II. This explained Edward's style of government and his strange dislike of martial activities - notoriously, Edward enjoyed many rustic, lower class pursuits such as ditch digging and farming. Deydras offered to fight Edward in single combat for the throne. Rumors began to spread across England. Deydras was finally arrested and tried for sedition. Deydras confessed during the trial to having made up his story, blaming his pet cat which he claimed was the devil in disguise. Found guilty, both he and his cat were executed. It is likely that many continued to believe this ridiculous story just as many modern day Americans believe their president was born in Kenya. The protracted case appears to have deeply affected Isabella of France, Edward's wife, who felt humiliated by the event.

After facing two debilitating scandals, Edward, having learned nothing, chose yet another favorite upon which to heap patronage. More than anything this choosing of favorites soured the mood of the nobility on Edward.

The Despenser Affair 1318-1326
1318 Edward appoints Hugh Dispenser as Chamberlain, becomes replacement for Gaveston
1319 Allied with Thomas of Lancaster, Edward invades Scotland, negotiates truce
1321 (May) Meeting at Pontefract: Lancaster unites Marcher Lords in opposition to Despensers;
1321 (Jul) Parliament at Westminster: Marcher Lords pressure king to remove Despensers with show of armed support. Edward agrees to banish Dispensers
1322 With Dispensers gone, some nobles switch sides and Edward crushes the rebels.
1322 Parliament of York: measures limiting king’s power revoked, Thomas of Lancaster and many rebels executed as traitors; others like prophet archetype Roger Mortimer are imprisoned.
1322 Emboldened by his victory over the Marcher Lords, Edward issues statute revoking all prior limits to his power
1324 Foiled assassination attempt on Edward and Hugh Dispenser.
1325 John of Nottingham was placed on trial for a plot to kill Edward & Hugh with magic
1325 Ed refuses to do homage for Gascony to brother-in-law French king Charles IV; sends Isabella to negotiate peace.
1325 Treaty negotiated requiring Edward do homage to Charles. Edward sends son Edward instead.
1325 In Paris, Isabella met and fell in love with Roger Mortimer, who had escaped from prison in 1323.
1326 Mortimer and Isabella invaded England to depose Edward II in favor of Prince Edward.
1326 Edward attempts to levy an army failed, few responded. Others, like prophet archetype Henry of Lancaster (son of Thomas), joined Mortimer.
1326 Edward abandoned London as it was opposed to him. London mob executed a Londoner accused as Despenser spy and the king’s Treasurer, Walter de Stapledon.
1326 Edward fled to Despenser lands in Wales, found no support and was captured by Lancaster assisted with Welsh rebels. Edward Longshanks' conquest of Wales had been short lived; the armed Welsh would be in permanent rebellion throughout the 14th century.
1327 Great Riot at St. Albans, Bury St. Edmunds and Abingdon against excesses of abbot
1327 Edward II charged with a list of offenses, abdicates in favor of his son; is later executed by Mortimer

By the time Isabella left for France she had come to hate and detest her husband and the Despensers and was ripe for the plot against him that would soon follow. Sensing his wife, who hated him to negotiate with her brother was an ill-conceived strategy. Sending his son to his wife in France was even more unwise as it placed the heir to the throne under the control of people deeply hostile to him.

Aftermath
1328 Treaty of Edinburgh; England recognizes Scotland as independent nation
1330 Edward III leads successful coup against Mortimer; begins personal reign.

Part C The turning in culture & society

Cast of characters
Prophet archetype Richard Rolle (c1295-1349) English mystic
Prophet archetype William Ramsey (fl. 1323–1349) architect

1310’s Rolle has first mystical experiences
1315-7 Great Famine, a tenth of England succumbs
1330 Tenant-farmers in Fordwich, Kent assault royal tax collectors who had confiscated their livestock
1332 Chapter house at St Paul's Cathedral, early example of Perpendicular Gothic
c1342 Rolle’s “Fire of Love” account of his mystic experiences

English Unraveling (1331-1352)

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of low price-based stress over 1326-51.

Bldg. Index: 1297-1325: 3/29(0.10); 1326-1352: 19/27(0.70); 1353-1378: 2/26(0.08)

The bldg. index supports a period of high stress over 1297-1325. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1302-1330.

As was described in the entry on the previous Famine Awakening, the coming of Age of Edward in 1330 abruptly ended the turmoil of the times. A steady Nomad-archetype hand was now guiding the ship of state. Edward began his rule with a successful campaign in Scotland, reversing the loss of English prestige after Bannockburn.


Timeline Scottish wars
1331 Edward met secretly with French king Philip VI; it was agreed that Edward would not do homage for Aquitaine
1332 With English aid, Edward Balliol seized the Scottish throne; defeating David II's forces at Duplin Moor.
1332 Opposition to Balliol forced him to retreat into England, at which point Edward intervened
1333 Edward defeats David's forces at Haledon Hill; English gain Berwick; Balliol is king again
1334 Edward Balliol granted England control of parts of southern Scotland

Edward now turning his ambition on to France. To have any hope against this much larger and wealthier foe, Edward needed new revenues to fund his military effort. During the late 1330’s he began experimenting with a variety of measures, much of it focusing on England’s primary export wool. Revenues during the 1340’s would average more than 50% greater than those in the previous decade. These efforts led to some episodes of unrest amongst the common people, but as long as the higher taxes were associated with tangible results his taxes did not adversely affect his relations with the nobles, which, until 1381, was all a monarch needed to worry about.

Timeline French wars
1336 Louis, count of Flanders prohibited trade with England; Edward counters by switching port of entry from Bruges to Antwerp
1337 Hundred Years War begins
1338 Protest Poems & Songs
1338-9 French raid English ports, Edward counters with incursions into France in 1338, 1339
1340 Parliament votes tax increases to fund war
1340 French fleet defeated at Battle of Sluys; Treaty of Esplechin established truce between England and France
1340 Lincolnshire Inquiry
1346 Edward invades Normandy with large force, decisively defeats French at Crecy
1347 Edward captures the city of Calais, accepts truce with France
1354 Statute of Staples established 15 staple towns where foreign trade in specific goods was to take place
1355 Edward the Black Prince's Great Raid, causes economic distress in Southern France.
1356 The Black Prince crushes a superior French army at Poitiers.

Edwards stunning successes in the 1340’s and 1350’s did just that. However the economic changes created by the Black Death were changing the economic and social basis of medieval society. Over the next half century, the commercial classes would get a significant voice in public affairs because of their importance to government finance. The mood of the common man would become a factor with the Peasants revolt of 1381 The idea of an English people as a nation distinct from France emerged along with an important linguistic change At the beginning of Edward’s reign, the French-speaking Edward was still Duke of Aquitaine and well as King of England, grandson of both the English king Edward I Longshanks and the French king Phillip IV. The English monarch still had a foot in both worlds. But by the end of his successor Richard’s reign in 1399, the King and leading nobles would be English-speaking Lords of England. Although holding various amounts of French territory, they could no longer use the traditional Feudal arrangement to confer legitimacy, because an English king doing homage to any other king (which was required by Feudal Law) was no longer politically acceptable. Therefore an English lord in France was less and less a legitimate French vassal, and more and more a military governor of foreign imperial power. Along with this rise in nationalism, England would develop its first popular religious movement, a movement that would be distinctly English in character.

These changes created fault lines in English society. The first to crack was mostly economic and formed the basis for the subsequent Crisis. The next to crack was social and cultural and led to the rise of the popular Lollard movement at the end of the 14^th century which formed the basis for an Awakening in the early 15^th century.

Plague Crisis in England 1352-1381

The economic data and the timeline below define an unrest period over 1349-1381 and an economic stress period over 1351-1377. The generational start of the turning is obtained by adding 52 and 26 to the beginnings of the previous two turnings to give 1356 and 1357 and averaging then to obtain 1356. Averaging this with the economic and unrest dates of 1351 and 1349 gives 1352. Repeating the generational calculation with the ends of the previous turnings gives 1381. Combining this with the corresponding economic and unrest dates of 1377 and 1381 gives 1380 as the consensus date for the end of the turning. Since the Peasants revolt was such a striking event it makes sense to include it in the 4T, so the turning is designated as 1352-1381.

Adding 52 years to the 1307-30 2T gives the period of aligned generational constellation 1359-1383. The period of high economic stress ran over 1351-1376. Averaging the two together gives 1355-80. The main outburst of unrest was the revolts in 1381, including them in the 4T gives 1355-81 and the projected dates for the Plague Crisis.


Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of high price-based stress over 1351-1376.

Bldg. Index: 1326-1352: 19/27(0.70); 1353-1378: 2/26(0.08); 1379-1400: 6/22(0.27)

The bldg. index supports a period of high stress over 1353-1378. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1352-1377.

This turning was the first in which events arising out of economic stress first appear in the political record

Spiral leading up to the Peasants revolt

Cast of characters

Prophet archetype William de Shareshull (1290–1370) Chief Justice 1350–1361.
Nomad archetype Edward III (1312-1377) King of England 1327-1377
Nomad archetype William Edington (d1366) Treasurer 1344-56 Chancellor 1256-63
Nomad archetype William Latimer (1330-1381) Lord Chamberlain 1371-1376
Hero archetype John of Gaunt (1340-1399)
Hero archetype Peter de la Mare (d1387) Presiding Officer of the House of Commons, 1376; 1377
Hero archetype Richard Lyons (d1381) Warden of the Mint 1375-1376
Artist archetype Richard II (1367-1400)
John Neville (c1337–1388) Lord Steward 1372-1376
Hero archetype John Ball (c1338–1381) Lollard priest, co-leader of Peasants rebellion
Hero archetype Wat Tyler (d1381) co-leader of Peasants rebellion
Hero archetype Jack Straw (d1381) co-leader of Peasants rebellion

Timeline
1348 Black death
1349 Ordinance of Laborers: (1) Everyone under 60 must work.
(2) Employers must not hire excess workers
(3) Employers may not pay and workers may not receive wages higher than pre-plague levels
(4) Food must be priced reasonably with no excess profit.
1351 Statute of Laborers: prohibited wage increases and movement of workers away from their homes
1361 Outbreak of Plague
1363 Parliament attempted to centrally regulate craft production, trading and retailing
1363 Sumptuary law forbidding commoners from wearing aristocratic clothing
1369 Outbreak of Plague
1370's 70% of royal courts' time spent enforcing the labor legislation
1376 Parliament led by Peter de la Mare dismissed Steward John Neville
1376 Parliament impeached Mint chief Richard Lyons & Chamberlain Will Latimer for malfeasance
1377 First poll tax of 4 pence on everyone over 14
1379 Progressive poll tax
1381 Flat tax of 12 pence on everyone over 15
1381 Revolts in Essex and Kent
1381 Wat Tyler leads English Peasants' Revolt
1381 Richard II meets rebels in London; agrees to consider demands to buy time
1381 Having made preparations, Richard meets rebels at Smithfield; Tyler killed; rebels dispersed

Part B. The turning in Culture and Society

Opposition to the Church

Nomad archetype Jon Wycliffe (c1320-1384) Philosopher and theologian; founder of Lollardy

1351 Statute of Provisors removes pope's power to grant English benefices
1353 English king forbids appeals to pope
1376 Wycliffe’s De civili dominio: the state, not the Church was supreme in secular matters. Condemned church commissions, exactions, and squandering of charities by unfit priests. The state has a duty to correct clerical corruption; if the clergy misuses ecclesiastical property, it must be confiscated.
1377 Church inquiry into writings of John Wycliffe; broke up by rioting
1378 Second inquiry of Wycliffe; ended when crowd gathered in support of Wycliffe

Tyranny High (1381-1404)
The dates for this turning are already fixed by the adjacent turning which have already been elucidated.

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of low price-based stress over 1376-1408.

Bldg. Index: 1353-1378: 2/26(0.08); 1379-1400: 6/22(0.27); 1401-1423: 2/23(0.09)

The bldg. index supports a period of low stress over 1379-1400. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1377-1404.

Part B. The turning in Politics

Cast of Characters

Loyalists:
King Richard II (1367-1400) son of Edward the Black Price, Hero or Artist?
Sir Simon de Burley, (1336 – 1388) associate of Black Prince, member of regency councils, Nomad
Aubrey de Vere (1338-1400) associate of Black Prince, member of regency councils, Nomad
Aubrey’s nephew, Robert de Vere, (1362 –1392), close friend of Richard II, Artist
Michael de la Pole (1330-1389) Lord Chancellor, Hero
Robert Tresilian (died 1388) Chief Justice of the King's Bench, Hero

Lords Appellant:
John of Gaunt Duke of Lancaster (1340-99), oldest surviving son of Edward III, Hero
Thomas of Woodstock (1355-1397) youngest son of Edward III, Hero
Richard Arundel (1346-1397) Hero
Thomas Arundel (1353-1414) Hero
Thomas de Mowbray, Duke of Norfolk (1366–1399) Hero
Thomas de Beauchamp, 12th Earl of Warwick (1338-1401) Hero
Gaunt’s son Henry Bolingbroke (1366-1413) future Henry IV, Artist

Both Richard II and Edward II were deposed and executed. Their stories have some commonalities. Richard's close relationship with Robert DeVere was disagreeable to the nobles as was Edward’s relationship with Piers Gaveston. As with Edward, some charged that the king and DeVere were gay lovers. Both Edward and Richard did not embrace the warrior ethic that was the defining attribute of the Medieval aristocrat.

There were important differences. Edward’s opponent were men who had served under the prior regime which was widely considered to have governed well. Furthermore, the fortunes of the nation experienced a downturn after Edward took power. Richard took control of the government at age 13 in 1380 when the last of the “continuing councils” that had served in lieu of a regency during the previous three years was discontinued. The situation under the previous administration was anything was anything but good. The most influential figure in government, Richard’s uncle John of Gaunt, was so unpopular that Parliament had taken the unusual step of not appointing a regent for the king during his minority in order to deny Gaunt any official role in the government.

Timeline: Late Plague Crisis spiral
1369 War resumes. English consistently lose territory to France
1372 French take Poitiers
1372 English fleet defeated at Battle of La Rochelle
1376 French capture Bergerac
1376 At Parliament, Richard Lyons (Warden of the Mint) and Lord Latimer, believed to be robbing the treasury, were imprisoned
1377 First poll tax of 4 pence on everyone over 14
1377 Trial of John Wycliffe for heresy; broke up over rioting
1378 Second trial of Wycliffe; trial ended when the citizens entered the courtroom to save him.
1379 Progressive poll tax
1380 Last of the 'continual councils' dismissed; Richard II begins rule
1381 Flat tax of 12 pence on everyone over 15
1381 Revolts in Essex and Kent grow into the larger English Peasants' Revolt
1381 Richard II meets rebels in London; agrees to consider demands to buy time
1381 Having made preparations, Richard meets rebels at Smithfield; Watt Tyler was killed and the rebels dispersed

In 1369 the war with France resumed after a 9 year peace. The Black Prince developed dysentery and could play no role in the war and the other great English leader, John Chandros, was killed in battle in 1370. John of Gaunt was not cut from the same cloth as his older brother the Black Prince and the King Edward III was no longer the man he was, modern historians speculate that he may have been the victim of a serious of mini-strokes that gradually diminish his mental faculties. Bereft of leadership, the 1370’s saw the resurgent French gradually recover the English conquests. During this same decade parliament spent 70% the time trying to enforce the labor legislation passed after the plague. The weakened government created opportunities for corruption. By 1376 Gaunt and his younger brother Thomas of Woodstock were essentially running the country and after Edward’s death continue to have a major influence on policy. This occurred because in the absence of a regent, the 10 year old Edward possessed the full executive power, which was to be guided by the council, who consisted of associated of Edward’s father the Black Prince. Edward’s uncles, as family also had influence. As a result policy over the 1377-81 period was made by these older men in Richard’s name. The policy was disastrous, a series of taxes that led to the dramatic Peasants Revolt. During the revolt Richard played an important role that helped end the crisis. By playing an important successful role during a 4T crisis, Richard may be said to have had the empowering “coming of age experience” that creates hero archetypes out of what might otherwise be artists. This would make Richard a hero despite his birth during a 4T. On the other hand, his experiences with the Lords Appellant while still am adolescent could well have counted any empowerment obtained by the earlier success, making Richard an Artist.

1381-1404 High, continued

Timeline: Lords Appellant spiral
1382 Richard II married sister of Bohemian king, marriage unpopular because of large payment to Bohemia and lack of any diplomatic benefits
1383 Michael de la Pole, who had arranged the unpopular marriage is made chancellor
1383 Despenser crusade in Flanders fails miserably
1384 At Parliament Uncles John and Thomas argued with Richard about finance and choice of advisors.
1385 Richard gave the title of Marquis of Dublin to his favorite Robert de Vere; alienating his relatives
1385 A French army lands in Scotland; Richard takes army North; employs scorched earth tactics to prevent advance
1386 French fleet mass at Sluys, threatening invasion
1386 Chancellor Pole requested huge taxes for French defense. Parliament demanded Pole be removed before discussing taxes.
1386 Richard dismissed Pole when threatened with deposition. A commission set up to review and control royal finances for a year
1387 Richard tours country to build political support; installs DeVere as Justice of Chester to create royal power base and obtains a ruling from Chief Justice asserting that parliament acted unlawfully.
1387 Lords Appellant meet with King to charge treason against Pole, DeVere, Chief Justice Tresilian and 2 other loyalists.
1387 Richard stalls to gain time for DeVere to arrive with reinforcements; Lords Appellant defeat DeVere
1387 Lords Appellant forces defeated troops led by Robert de Vere, de Vere leaves the country
1387-88 Henry Bolingbroke prepared defenses against threatened invasion
1388 Tresilian, de Vere, de la Pole, Burley & others sentenced to death by Merciless Parliament, Lords Appellant in charge
1388 Lords Appellants lose popularity after failing to build anti-French coalition and losing Battle of Otterburn to Scots
1389 John of Gaunt returns; helps negotiate settlement between Lords Appellant and Richard, king returns to power

During the 1382-87 period, Richard, aged 15-20, was unable to solve the problems that had bedeviled his predecessors. The position in France continued to degrade and he made several unpopular decisions, reflecting perhaps a poor choice of advisors. Richard believed his country was best served by peace and did not care for war. Art and culture were central to Richard's court in contrast to the fraternal, martial court of Edward III, which further alienated the nobility. And as always the Great Houses resented the King’s favorites which came from the lesser Houses, because they received the sort of largess that the highest-ranking Lords felt ought to go to them. It seems to me than in this episode Richard was simply guilty of lacking the sort of stature an older, successful king would have with which to overawe his unruly vassals.

Over the 1387-88 period his political opponents known to history as the Lords Appellant were able to wrest executive power from Richard, but in 1389 Richard was now back and in a position to assert that as he was now a legal adult, he would being his personal rule. He promised the end the war in France and lower taxes, which he fulfilled over the next nine years. He even led the army on a successful campaign to pacify Ireland.

Timeline: Richard’s personal rule
1389 Richard declares intent to rule solely; outlines a foreign policy seeking peace with France and lower taxes
1389-97 Richard rules peacefully; government revenues 1/3 lower in 1390's than in 1380's
1393 Proposal expanding Aquitaine that required Edward to perform homage to French king failed because of rising English nationalism.
1394 Fearful of being overrun, Anglo-Irish lords plead for aid; Richard leads expedition forcing Irish chieftains to acknowledge English overlordship.
1396 Twenty year truce arranged with France.

This display of competence makes Richard very different than Edward II The relative ease to which Richard was able to regain power from the Lords Appellant, and his ability to rule w/o interference afterward is consistent with a period of low economic stress and with a constellation featuring elder Heroes and younger Artists, that is a High turning. Richard’s period of smooth sailed was to change, not because of external circumstances (i.e. a turning change) but by his own hand.

Richard’s revenge on the Lords Appellant and subsequent blowback 1397-99
Feeling secure after nine years of stability, Richard struck at the Lords Appellant in retaliation for what they had done to him. At Parliament the leaders of the Lords Appellant: Thomas of Woodstock, Thomas de Beauchamp, Richard Arundel and his brother Thomas were brought up on charges. Woodstock and the elder Arundel were condemned to death and Arundel executed (Woodstock had died somewhat mysteriously while in custody before the hearing). Beauchamp was imprisons and Thomas Arundel exiled. Richard then took his persecution of adversaries to the outlying shires where he recruited supported and prosecuted those who had supported the appellants. These actions were made possible primarily through the collusion of John of Gaunt, richest man in England, but also men who had gained wealth and power through the king’s patronage. John of Gaunt and his son Henry Bolingbroke as heirs of the childless Richard remained potential threats. When Bolingbroke and Thomas de Mowbray, two of the few remaining Lords Appellant , became embroiled in a quarrel, Richard took advantage and exiled them both. With all of the Lords Appellant eliminated Richard began an absolutist rule that has been called “the tyranny”.

During these years Richard possessed a virtual monopoly on power in the country. A distinctly different court culture was promoted in which the king was addressed as "royal majesty", or "high majesty" in place of highness. Chroniclers described Richard as sitting for hours on his throne without speaking; anyone on whom his eyes fell was required to genuflect. Richard embrace of absolutism reflected his strong belief in the royal prerogative, a reaction perhaps to the humiliating challenges to his authority he had experienced in his youth. Richard believed that these problems arose out of the way his grandfather Edward III, had handled the nobility. Edward III, following the example of his successful grandfather Longshanks and the counterexample of his unsuccessful father, presented himself as the foremost of a warrior elite, rewarding those nobles most able as military captains. Such a policy worked well when the King was a successful war leader who commanded respect, but it did not work for rulers less gifted or when the fortunes of war turned sour. Richard's experience with the downsides of this approach led him to reject this policy, as it put a dangerous amount of power in the hands of the baronage. To avoid dependence on the nobility for military services, he pursued a policy of peace towards France and developed his own private militia, larger than that of any English king before him. He developed a courtly atmosphere in which the king was increasingly a distant, venerated figure, and art and culture, rather than warfare, were at the center.

In February 1399, John of Gaunt died. Richard did not lift the banishment to allow Bolingbroke to claim his inheritance, and had him disinherited instead. The king felt safe from Bolingbroke, now in Paris, because the French under Charles VI supported Richard’s peace policy. Feeling secure, he left in May for another expedition to Ireland.

The next month, Louis of Orleans deposed the mad king Charles VI. Louis favored a more aggressive stance toward England and allowed Henry Bolingbroke to leave for England with a small group of followers. Events played out as they had for Edward II. Richards radically different stance towards the nobility had alienated most of them. As the king had taken most of his household knights and the loyal nobility with him to Ireland, Bolingbroke was able to build a massive movement with little opposition during the time it took for Richard to return from Ireland. Hopelessly outnumbered, Richard II surrendered to Henry less than four weeks after arriving back. He agreed to abdicate in exchange for his life. Bolingbroke was crowned Henry IV and imprisoned Richard where he starved to death.

Lollard Awakening (1404-1430)

The spirals below define a period of unrest over 1400-1435. The economic express period is 1404-1423.
The beginning of this turning sees key involvement by Heroes, Artists and even a few Prophets. A generational constellation is obtained by adding 78, 52 and 26 to the beginning of the last three turnings to get 1409, 1404 and 1407, which average to 1407. Averaging this with the unrest and economic dates of 1400 and 1404 gives 1404 as the start of the turning.

At the end of the turning we have mostly prophets and a nomad. We obtained the constellation ending date by adding 52 and 26 to the ends of the last to turnings to give 1433 and 1430, which average together to give 1432. Averaging this with the end of the unrest period in 1435 and the end of the economic stress period in 1423 yields 1430. Thus I proposed dates of 1430-1459 for the next turning rather than the 1435-1459 dates S&H give.

Part A. The turning in Economics

There was a period of low price-based which ended in 1408. After this the cycle is not discernible.

Bldg. Index: 1379-1400: 6/22(0.27);1401-1423: 2/23(0.09); 1424-1450: 6/27(0.22)

The bldg. index supports a period of high stress over 1401-1423. Averaging the dates for price stress and the bldg. index gives a consensus economic stress period of 1404-1423.

Part B. The turning in Politics

Lollard spiral

Cast of Characters

Artist archetype Thomas Arundel (1353-1414) Archbishop of Canterbury 1397, 1399-1414
Artist archetype Henry IV (1367-1413) King of England 1399-1413
Artist archetype John Oldcastle (d 1417) Lollard leader
Prophet archetype Henry V (1386-1422) King of England 1413-1422

Timeline
1395 Twelve conclusions of Lollardy affixed to doors of Westminster Abbey and St. Paul's
1401 Spurred by Arundel, Henry IV passed law declaring Lollards heretics & banning English Bibles
1410 Oxford censors condemned 267 propositions collected out of Wycliffe’s writings
1410 Another Lollard sent to stake. 9 more would be by 1485
1413 Sir John Oldcastle convicted of Lollardy sent to the Tower from which he escaped
1414 Oldcastle leads Lollard rebellion against Henry V
1414 Lollard strategy meeting raided by King's troops; many arrested; Oldcastle escapes
1414 Law passed making heresy illegal in common law as well as canon law
1415 Council of Constance declares Wycliffe a heretic.
1417 Oldcastle captured and executed, become first English Protestant martyr.
1428 Wycliffe’s bones were dug up, burned, and cast into the river.
1431 Lollard uprising in London suburbs, after this little Lollard activity reported.

Internal Rebellions

Henry’s alienation of the Percy and Mortimer families is not the sort of pragmatic crisis behavior to be expected of a Nomad, he strikes me as an artist.

Cast of Characters
Hero archetype Henry Percy Sr. (1341–1408) 1st Earl of Northumberland
Hero archetype Owain Glyndwr (1349-1416) Last Welsh prince of Wales
Hero archetype Richard Scrope (1350-1405) Archbishop of York 1398-1405
Artist archetype Harry “Hotspur” Percy (1364-1403) Son of Henry, Earl of Northumberland
Artist archetype Henry IV (1367-1413) King of England 1399-1413
Artist archetype Henry Scrope (c1370–1415) 3rd Baron Scrope of Masham, nephew of Richard Scrope
Artist archetype Richard of Conisburgh (1375-1415) 3^rd Earl of Cambridge
Artist archetype Edmund Mortimer (1376-1409) son of Edmund Mortimer 3^rd Earl of March
Prophet archetype Thomas Grey (1384–1415)
Prophet archetype Henry V (1386-1422) King of England 1413-1422
Prophet archetype Edmund Mortimer (1391-1425) 5th Earl of March, nephew of elder Mortimer

Timeline
1399 Richard II deposed
1400 Supporters of Richard II plot against Henry
1400 Land dispute between Owain Glyndwr and Grey of Rutan turns to revolt when Henry IV sides with Rutan
1401 Royal offensive led by “Hotspur” Percy and Prince Henry fails
1402 Royal offensive led by Edmund Mortimer against Glyndwr fails; Mortimer captured, king refused to pay ransom
1403 New royal offensive, Prince Henry is commander; he makes no progress against Glendower
1403 Harry “Hotspur” Percy rebellion, defeated by Henry IV at Shrewsbury
1405 Richard Scrope and Henry Percy Sr. rebel against Henry IV; revolt crushed and Scrope executed
1405 Mortimer and the Percy's join Glyndwr (neither had been paid for their service to the king in 1402-3).
1405 Tide turns towards Prince Henry
1408 Henry Percy Sr. invaded England once more and was killed at the Battle of Bramham Moor
1409 Glyndwr Rebellion defeated
1412 Final blow by Owain Glyndwr, who may have been allied with John Oldcastle.
1413 Henry V becomes king
1415 Southampton plot against King by Earl of Cambridge, Henry Scrope and Tom Grey; plot discovered & leaders executed

War with France

Charles VI “the Mad” (1368–1422) King of France 1380-1422
Prophet archetype Henry V (1386-1422) King of England 1413-1422
Prophet archetype Philip of Burgundy (1396–1467)
Nomad archetype Charles VII (1403-1461) King of France 1422-1461

1415 Henry wins a great victory over the French at Agincourt
1416 Henry makes treaty of Canterbury with German king Sigismund, shifting German support to Henry
1419 Henry makes alliance with Philip of Burgundy
1420 Treaty of Troyes names Henry V of England as successor to Charles VI of France
1422 Henry dies leaving an infant Henry VI as heir
1429 Charles VII crowned King of France making Henry VI's claim less legitimate
1435 Treaty of Aras ends Burgundian alliance, England begins a retreat from France

Part C. The turning in Culture and Society

End of the Great Schism

Cast of Characters

Sigismund of Luxemburg (1368-1437) German king 1411-37; Holy Roman Emperor 1433-37
Pope Martin V (1368-1431)
Prophet archetype Henry V (1386-1422) King of England 1413-1422

1414 Alien priories turned over to English orders.
1414-8 Council of Constance, Pope Martin V elected
1416 Henry makes treaty of Canterbury with German king Sigismund
1417 German and English support sway most of Christendom behind Martin, ending the Great Schism.

Above is posted my turning scheme for Britain from Alfred the Great up to where S&H starts. Below is a summary of my turning dates (MAA) and the corresponding dates for Dave McGuiness (DMcG). Mine focus on Britain. Dave's spans all of Europe. Dave’s saeculum closely corresponds to S&H’s in the period after 1435. As you can see, his and my schemes correspond and only begin to deviate in 10th century. By the mid-9th century they are distinctly different.*

I believe that my work provides a confirmation of Dave’s pre-1435 turnings and affirmatively answers the question that the saeculum existed before 1435.

DMcG	MAA	Type	Name
829-855	851-878	C	Viking
855-885	878-901	H	Alfred the Great
885-911	901-922	A	Athelfled
911-936	922-945	U	Athelstan
936-963	945-964	C	St. Dunstan
963-985	964-990	H	Peaceable
985-1016	990-1016	A	Ethelred
1016-1046	1016-1046	U	Canute
1046-1071	1046-1071	C	Noman Invasion
1071-1095	1071-1094	H	Domesday
1095-1122	1094-1125	A	Henry I
1122-1147	1125-1149	U	Anarchy
1147-1174	1149-1175	C	Angevin
1174-1204	1175-1201	H	Leonine
1204-1230	1201-1224	A	Magna Carta
1230-1254	1224-1252	U	Henry III
1254-1282	1252-1279	C	Montfort
1282-1305	1279-1304	H	Braveheart
1305-1328	1304-1331	A	Famine
1328-1348	1331-1352	U	English
1348-1378	1352-1381	C	Plague
1378-1415	1381-1404	H	Tyranny
1415-1445	1404-1430	A	Lollard
	1430-1459	U	Return from France

*I interpret this as saying that Britain was on the same timeline as the continent (or at least France & Italy) from the 10^th century on. I suggest that the subsequent waves of Viking raids/invasions that began at the end of the 8^th century and which occurred in Ireland and France was well as Britain, put this region onto the same timeline as they started to experience simultaneous period crises that formed into social moments. Such externally-imposed periodic bad times could have the same effect on fertility as the population cycles I proposed as one of the cycle mechanisms operative in pre-modern times, in which case this mechanism would be “reset” to be in accordance with the raid periodicity and continue on after the raids have stopped. Before the raid, I propose that England’s cycles were out-of-sync with those in France and elsewhere on the continent.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

I've done a considerable bit on Ancient Rome. Let me give you a brief taste:

Gaius Marius - Civic
Lucius Cornelius Sulla - Rogue Artist
Pompey, Crassus, Caesar, Cato, Cicero, et. al - Prophet
Clodius Pulcher, Milo, Catullus, Marc Antony - Nomad

Octavian, later Caesar Augustus - most decidedly Civic. Very, very Civic. Even the poets he kept around him (Horace, Virgil. et. al.)

My thread-search-fu is feeble, but I'm sure the others can point you to them.

For a vivid picture of an Unraveling during a Mega-Crisis, try any of the many, many novels and murder mysteries set during the Dying Republic Saeculum.

I've been re-watching the excellent BBC miniseries "I, Claudius" (1976) and I think I have the Roman Saeculum from that time roughly figured out:

Julio-Claudian Saeculum

27 BC - 14 AD = 42 years (Augustus Caesar) - High & Awakening

14 AD - 37 AD = 23 years (Tiberius) - Unraveling

37 AD - 41 AD = 4 years (Caligula) - Unraveling/Crisis

41 AD - 54 AD = 13 years (Claudius) - Crisis
54 AD - 69 AD = 15 years (Nero & Year of 4 Emperors) - Crisis

Burning of Rome under Nero = Crisis Climax

August Caesar = Civic
Livia Drusilla = Civic
Tiberius = Artist
Drusus = Artist
Julia the Elder = Artist
Antonia Minor = Artist
Lucius Caesar = Artist
Gaius Caesar = Artist
Germanicus = Prophet
Claudius = Prophet
Agrippina the Elder = Prophet
Livilla = Prophet
Sejanus = Prophet
Castor = Prophet
Posthumous Agrippa = Prophet
Caligula = Nomad
Agrippina the Younger = Nomad/Civic
Messalina = Civic
Nero = Civic/Artist
Britannicus = Artist

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

I've been re-watching the excellent BBC miniseries "I, Claudius" (1976) and I think I have the Roman Saeculum from that time roughly figured out:

Caligula = Nomad
~Chas'88

No kidding. He's bad enough to be on our board.

Originally Posted by Bad Dog

No kidding. He's bad enough to be on our board.

He's a late Nomad by the rough time line I set up, almost a Nomad/Civic cusper--almost but not quite.

~Chas'88