So, I did finally find the post; I'll send it to you in a PM.Originally Posted by Chas'88
Damn, I've forgotten about it... I'll find it one day, I'm sure. Thanks for the memory!
~Chas'88
(It was actually really easy once I used JD's
directions for using the 'advanced search'-feature).
Prince
PS: Thanks for those vids you posted; I'll watch them when I get a chance.
I Am A Child of God/Nature/The Universe
I Think Globally and Act Individually(and possibly, voluntarily join-together with Others)
I Pray for World Peace & I Choose Less-Just Say: "NO!, Thank You."
Shakespeare's History plays, for those interested in comparing HOW we remember history and HOW it happened.
Richard II - covers the time period of 1397 - 1400, or end of the 1T according to Mikebert
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
It is amazing how much balls political actors had back then and even in our own country (USA) until about seventy years ago. Comments?
The age is dull and mean. Men creep, Not walk.
John Greenleaf Whittier
I guess it's normal for most political leaders to be brash if they know they can. Without going back 70 years, GWB felt only limited constraint to do as he wished, until Katrina, at least. Of course, some political leaders lack that killer instinct, but history tends to view them poorly. Neville Chamberlain could have taken a stronger stand, but didn't. Churchill certainly would have handled Hitler differently at the time. It's hard to know how that would have played-out though. Both Germany and the GB were much less ready to fight a war in 1937-8, but Hitler may have considered anything like an ultimatum as the excuse he needed to start the war the seemed destined to fight ... not that he really needed one when he finally did.
That said, brashness can be overrated. Obama won't confront the Russians in Ukraine, because the costs would outwiegh any potential gains. Then again, That might not constrain a John McCain though.
Last edited by Marx & Lennon; 05-07-2014 at 11:07 AM.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
That's not balls.
Once again GWB acted only when it was politically safe. Look his administration was responsible for policies that if he were the ruler of a third-rate power would get him convicted as a war criminal. He was succeeded by an administration from the opposing party and not one member of his administration has been discomfited in any way. It takes zero balls to act in a riskless environment.GWB felt only limited constraint to do as he wished, until Katrina, at least.
I was commenting on Richard II, who took risks that got him killed. Lots of other actors took risks that got them killed. That's where the big pair comes in.
Up under 70-80 years a go it was still possible for powerful men to end up broke or in disgrace if they took risks and lost. It takes balls to face down real threats. Today all the elites have golden parachutes and so can do whatever they please in the realm of "stuff rich white men like to do" without consequence. As recently as Enron, it was still possible for people to pay some price for bas luck and to have the opportunity to exhibit balls.
Today there is literally nothing they would want to do that would have any sort of negative consequences for them. In such an environment balls are a hindrance.
Last edited by Mikebert; 05-08-2014 at 08:11 AM.
One of the things that I think that has been the detriment of this saeculum has been the elimination of risk, or at least the attempt to eliminate risk. It's kinda disastrous.
No, the powerful are now isolated from the negative results of their own actions. Look at Assad. He can fail, and Putin will accept him as a refugee. Eveyone has a backup plan that is in a position of power that affords them the luxury of one. This may be a univeral lesson learned by the elites of the world, but the cycle will be broken at some point. We just dont't know how, where or when. Feeling impervious takes the edge off the survival instinct, and all of these folks have real enemies.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
I just found this nugget from Winston Churchill’s A History of the English Speaking Peoples: The Birth of Britain, page 149, which clearly identifies a Gray Champion whose death serves as a catylist:
“The figure of Edward the Confessor comes down to us faint, misty, frail. The medieval legend, carefully fostered by the Church, whose devoted servant he was, surpassed the man. The lights of Saxon England were going out, and in the gathering darkness a gentle grey-beard prophet foretold the end. When on his death-bed Edward spoke of a time of evil that was coming upon the land his inspired mutterings struck terror into hearers. Only Archbishop Stignand, who had been Godwin’s stalwart, remained unmoved, and whispered in Harold’s ear that age and sickness had robbed the monarch of his wits. Thus on January 5, 1066, ended the line of the Saxon kings. The national sentiment of the English, soon to be conquered, combined in the bitter period that lay before them with the gratitude of the Church to circle the royal memory with a halo.” [Emphasis mine.]
This smacks of an ad hoc post mortum addendum, the kind of thing people make up about someone after a great change in society has occurred.
By Mikebert's analysis Edward's a Nomad. And he's not even close to either cusp, so he's a core Nomad.
Peaceable High 960-992 NA 4.8 (2.6) NA None Aethelred Awakening 992-1019 NA 3 (0.9) 0.7 (1) 988-1016 Canute Unraveling 1019-1047 NA 2.1 (0.6) 0.4 (0.2) None Norman Invasion Crisis 1047-1071 NA 4.4 (0.5) 0 (0) 1051-1075
Which gives you (approximately):
957 - 988 = Idealist
989 - 1015 = Nomad (being born in 1003, Edward's at the latter end of the Nomad core)
1016 - 1043 = Civic
1044 - 1087 = Artist
So not a gray prophet in the S&H sense of the term. And I roughly agree with Mikebert's analysis seeing as he's found consistent indicators that are independently measurable.
And while everyone has turned Edward the Confessor into this great hero after the Norman Invasion as this kind of "Last True King of England" martyr... during his life time... not so great a press. He's actually a good example where one has to separate myth making from facts and be cautious how you do so:
That weak king being Edward the Confessor, who in his Crisis not only had overly strong earls to contend with, also was a Royal "flip flopper" first declaring that one person would succeed him, then saying another would--which caused the Norman Invasion to happen in the first place because Edward had said that William the Bastard was one of the two people he'd chosen to succeed him.
England turns him into their patron saint (also keep in mind he's the saint of "troubled marriages" and "separated spouses") after the Norman Invasion simply because he was the last true Saxon King of England, and England's Anglo-Saxon population really resented their Norman overlords.
It's kinda like if after Obama left office we got taken over during some other guy's first term by say... an alien invasion. Obama starts looking pretty good in comparison to our new alien overlords, wouldn't you say? So keep that in mind when reading about Edward the Confessor.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 08-03-2014 at 10:21 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
It's not that I am ignoring your comments, it's that there is a lot to take in here on this subject.
Purposely working independently of Mike, I proposed the following:
I decided to compare notes and saw that our dates lined up pretty well:
It is encouraging to me that the rhythm can be observed by our differing approaches. No doubt David McGuiness based 1204 on St Francis of Assisi (definitely an Atonement Prophet) rejecting of his worldly life that year.
Last edited by JDW; 02-07-2015 at 08:08 PM.
I would like to make a suggestion for the Artist Generation that follows Alfred the Great's Civic/Hero Generation:
The Burghal Generation
(born approximately ~850 - ~875)
The thing to take away from the Burghal Generation is that in the aftermath of Alfred the Great's victory over the Vikings and the preservation of the Anglo-Saxons, a generation grew up to essentially rebuild, refortify, and recapture the glory of the Anglo-Saxons. As much as military victories were needed, so too was trade agreements & alliances which this generation used to their disposal just as much if not more so than warfare. Called the Burghal Generation for their dedication to building fortified towns with stone walls or rebuilding old ruined Roman cities. A term for a fortified town is a Burh, and a map noting all the Burhs was later termed the "Burghal Hidage" noting all the fortified towns and villages. This map shows Alfred the Great's burhs, but his children would continue the tradition of building and rebuilding them as well as administrating them and securing trade and defense through alliances and strategic Viking settlements (whom they invited to settle in order to serve as a buffer between them and Irish Norse raiders or Danelaw Norse raiders--effectively pitting Viking against Viking) as well as warfare like their father had conducted.
It should be also noted that an appreciation for women rulers also came about due to the extraordinary leadership of Aethelflaed, and the invention of a new title for women rulers down the centuries: "Lady". She ruled her husband's kingdom in his name for her husband (Ethelred) was always ill and died relatively young. She consolidated the rule of Mercia under herself after his death and her only child and daughter was chosen to succeed her, but was prevented from doing so by her uncle Edward.
Lady artist archetypes down the ages should therefore take pride in the terminology of being called "a Lady", as one of your own was the reason the term came into existence in the first place.
Notable Members: Aethelflaed the Lady of the Mercians, Edward the Elder, Aethelwold, Guthred of Northumbria, Ethelred of Mercia
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-17-2015 at 01:34 AM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
I wanted to quote this because this pretty much fits exactly what I have been seeing in my current heavy reading on High and Late Medieval EnglandHere is a summary of the turning scheme I have proposed with supporting data:
Turnings Price Events/decade, relative values in () Butlerian Spiral Name Dates Distress Buildings Unrest Religious Date Alfred High 871-893 NA 2 (2.5) NA 871-886 following A+U+C 893-960 NA 0.8 (0.2) NA not done Peaceable High 960-992 NA 4.8 (2.6) NA None Aethelred Awakening 992-1019 NA 3 (0.9) 0.7 (1) 988-1016 Canute Unraveling 1019-1047 NA 2.1 (0.6) 0.4 (0.2) None Norman Invasion Crisis 1047-1071 NA 4.4 (0.5) 0 (0) 1051-1075 Domesday High 1071-1095 NA 16.3 (1.4) 1.9 (0.8) None Henry I Awakening 1095-1123 NA 18.6 (0.7) 3.8 (2.3) 1088-1124 Anarchy Unraveling 1123-1149 NA 39.6 (1.7) 3.6 (1.0) 1127-1147 Angevin Crisis 1149-1176 0.46 27.3 (0.9) 2.1 (0.6) 1147-1174 Leonine High 1176-1202 0.20 21.2 (1.1) 1.7 (0.5) None Magna Carta Awakening 1202-1230 0.48 12.7 (0.7) 3.4 (1.9) 1202-1217 Henry III Unraveling 1230-1256 0.33 15.2 (1.4) 1.5 (0.6) None Monfort Crisis 1256-1282 0.34 9.2 (0.9) 0.4 (0.1) 1258-1282 Edwardian High 1282-1307 0.27 6 (0.8) 0.4 (0.1) 1.2 (0.5) 1292-1305 Famine Awakening 1307-1328 0.47 5.2 (0.9) 3.3 (1.8) 1.9 (1.8) 1307-1327 English Unraveling 1328-1355 0.24 5.9 (1.4) 3.3 (0.6) 0.7 (0.4) None Plague Crisis 1355-1381 0.47 3.5 (0.9) 7.1 (2.0) 1.9 (1.0) 1369-1381 Tyranny High 1381-1405 0.29 2.1 (1.1) 4 (0.7) 0.4 (0.2) 1386-1389 Lollard Awakening 1405-1435 0.31 0.3 (0.3) 4.7 (1.9) 2 (2.3) 1399-1417 Return from France (U) 1435-1459 0.28 0.4 (2.5) 0.8 (0.3) 0.8 (0.4) ND
Descriptions of parameters:
Price stress: The English price index described by David Hackett Fisher in The Great Wave is shown below. I used Fisher's surces to construct my own index that looks like this figure, but goes back a bit further, to 1162. I fitted a straight line to the data over the 1315-1525 period to fit the Renaissance equilibrium. For the Medieval price revolution, I fit the data between 1162 and 1339 with a third degree polynomial. The cubic fit was quite good (r = 0.82). The two trend lines intersected in 1324. So the cubic regression equation up to 1324 and the linear regression equation after defines the price trend. The price data for each year was divided by the trend value to obtain the relative price. The lowest value of this ratio was then subtracted to obtain a series of values ranging from 0 in 1189 to 1.07 in 1316. I call these values price distress, because they are a measure to the degree that the current price level has deviated from typical or customary prices, which are represented by the trend. High values pf price distress mean high prices relative to normal, which should be indicative of food shortages, which I interprets as a distressful event. The values under price in the table are the average values of price distress for each turning. A clear pattern of higher values (i.e. more distress) in 2Ts and 4Ts (in bold) and lower values (less distress) in 1Ts and 3Ts is evident. This pattern is statistically significant at the 99.7% level.
Building index: I constructed a timeline of 529 building events in Britain over the 871-1459 period. About three quarters are dates for monastery foundings and the others involve church construction. I then calculated the frequency of these events (in events per decade) for each turning in the table. Looking at the data a clear trend in evident. The rate of these events increases in the early centuries, peaks in the mid-12th century, and then falls afterward. This same trend is shown by European-wide data on monastery founding given by Jan Luiten van Zanden by century: 9th 1533; 10th 2397; 11th 6776; 12th 8888; 13th 3836; 14th 1516.
As with prices, I am interesting the amount of building activity relative to the “normal” (i.e. trend) level. A simple way to get this is to simple divide the value for the turning of interest by the average values of the adjacent turnings. I did this and the values obtained appear in parentheses in the table. These values shown higher levels in 1Ts and 3Ts (shown in bold green) than in 2Ts and 4Ts. This pattern is statistically significant at the 99.8% level.
Unrest: I have discussed this measure before. It consists of 61 incidences of popular unrest in Britain and France between 1300 and 1459, about 60% of which are events from either the peasant revolt database or the tax protest database I’ve discussed previously. Another 14% are episodes of popular political protest, such as riots at John Wycliffe’s trial, London riots against Edward II, or the Lollard uprising led by John Oldcastle. A similar number involve impositions of economically regressive government edicts like the Statute of Laborers and the various poll taxes tried in during the Plague Crisis. A handful (5%) involve religious repression, mostly against Jews. The remainder (7%) reflect political actions of the nobility that threatened or actually led to civil war. The vast majority of political intrigue by the nobility was excluded as this behavior is a near-constant background in medieval times. These sort of event make up most of the the Butlerian spirals given at the extreme right and which are discussed in the linked postings.
These data were analyzed in the same way as the building data. A pattern of higher unrest in 2Ts and 4Ts can be seen, which is statistically significant at the 99.9% level.
Religious events: A similar timeline involving religious behaviors, chiefly the founding of religious orders or other religious movements (72%) and mystical experiences such as visions or revelations (22%). These are analyzed as the other two kinds of events and a clear pattern of high levels during 1Ts and lower levels in other turnings can be seen which is over 99.9% significant.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Also, one of Henry II's big concerns was that clerics were appealing to their status in order to get away with violent crimes like murder and rape with only a comparatively light sentence, whereas the secular courts a conviction for such crimes meant death or at the very least loosing a body part. "Law and order" is very popular in 4Ts.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
chung-chung
A response to another post from another thread, but the reply applies more here than elsewhere. Looking over these generations and the analysis again and in more detail, I can't help but think the following when I heard about how vital Prophets are to 4Ts supposedly.
And what about in saeculums when the Prophet generation was most certainly dead and you only had two adult generations active at a time? A Medieval saeculum as analyzed by Mikebert would suggest that the Prophet role as touted by S&H as so necessary for a "successful" crisis to in all actuality not really be necessary?
Sorry, was just thinking about this as I was rooting around with the older generations, pre-Norman Conquest, where you have two sometimes the beginning of a third or the ending of a third generation appearing, but not very often.
It also throws out the idea that "Civics set the tone to raise Prophets" and "Nomads set the tone to raise Artists" ideology and instead suggests that in that time when generations were longer that you had Prophets raise Nomads, who raised Civics, who raised Artists, who raised Prophets.
Which begs the question if the latter half of current generations are what the archetypes are supposed to be like more so than the early half of current generations?
I know it's a hard concept to dwell on, and I'm about to go to bed, but if we accept the 900s era Saeculums as viable in themselves, then the absence of certain features we've come to "accept" as necessary not being present in those cycles suggests that they are in fact not necessary at all, but rather just another variation.
Any generational archetype can therefore lead us into a Regeneracy that will lead us to an end to a 4T, they just do it differently, whether they be Prophet (FDR & Churchill), Nomad (Elizabeth I), Civic (William & Mary), or even Artist (Edgar the Peaceable), and thus there is no "accepted script" but what we choose to write for ourselves.
Excuse me while I go listen to some post-modern interpretation of Consciousness Revolution music to complement this hippie dippie revelation.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-23-2015 at 12:21 AM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Chas, you are perceiving problem with the pre- and post- industrial periods. See my recent posts on the secular cycles thread. In the pre-industrial period, basically before 1800 for Britain and America, each generation"begat" the next one. The "grey champion" is the generation that "begets" the hero generation of the 4T. In the pre-industrial period this generation was the parental gen, that is, Nomads. In the post-industrial period the generation that begets the Hero gen is the generation that, when in power, created the cultural millieu (history) which "forms" the generation coming of age. That generation is a Prophet gen.
I think both you and Jordan were born in the mid 1980's. You were age 23 (the nominal paradigm (or generation-creating) age) around 2008. If you check the S&H data at lifecourse you will see that Boomers were clearly in power. Hence if your generation be a true Hero gen, the you were "begat" by the Boomers, which makes them Gray Champions.
Could it be that what sets the culture for children of any time is those people who set the pedagogical norms of the time? Such people would typically be the age of school administrators -- not teachers.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Doing some more research into Aethelstan, it becomes apparent he was a Prophet. What laws he did make often concerned moral and religious authority, and the Church grew more powerful during his reign. He also has associated with him the fabled "choosing" ceremony where his grandfather, Alfred the Great, bestowed upon him a scarlet cloak and blessed him--calling back to mind Alfred's own blessing done by the Pope, which influenced his mindset greatly. Also it seems rather appropriate that a Civic (Alfred) was blessed by a famous Spiritual Authority (the Pope) as a boy, while a Prophet (Aethelstan) was blessed by a famous Secular Authority (his grandfather, the King) as a boy. And I think we're meant to draw similarities to the two actions--if the chroniclers are doing their propaganda work right, that is.
And he came with the stamp of approval of his deceased Aunt Aethelflaed, whom he was raised as an adoptive son, when Aethelstan's father (Edward the Elder) remarried and focused more on his second wife. Aethelstan got shipped off to his Aunt Aethelflaed to raise as her own as her ward. Aethelstan paid his respects by giving a charter of privileges to St. Oswald's Priory, the place that Aethelflaed and Aethelred (her husband), with the note that he was doing it out of respect for the way they raised him and in honor of them.
Proves, that no matter the generation, Artists are beloved as parental figures to children who aren't of their own bodies, as I believe one of our resident Silents once put it.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 02-12-2016 at 10:11 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Have you read Bernard Cornwell's Saxon series? I heartily recommend it, real good fun. In book 7 which I am reading now, Aethelstan is a 10 year old kid and already on his way to greatness as he is tutored by Uthred of Bebbanburg (a fictional character) who is a total badass (and who was also fucking his aunt Aethelfled for years before her husband died in 911). As Cornwell put it in his appendix he is being unfair to Aethelred; there is zero evidence of any marital discord between them, but it does make for a good tale! The series starts with the Danish invasion and will probably end (I am guessing) with Aethelstan as King of England in 927.Doing some more research into Aethelstan, it becomes apparent he was a Prophet. What laws he did make often concerned moral and religious authority, and the Church grew more powerful during his reign. He also has associated with him the fabled "choosing" ceremony where his grandfather, Alfred the Great, bestowed upon him a scarlet cloak and blessed him--calling back to mind Alfred's own blessing done by the Pope, which influenced his mindset greatly. Also it seems rather appropriate that a Civic (Alfred) was blessed by a famous Spiritual Authority (the Pope) as a boy, while a Prophet (Aethelstan) was blessed by a famous Secular Authority (his grandfather, the King) as a boy. And I think we're meant to draw similarities to the two actions--if the chroniclers are doing their propaganda work right, that is.
And he came with the stamp of approval of his deceased Aunt Aethelflaed, whom he was raised as an adoptive son, when Aethelstan's father (Edward the Elder) remarried and focused more on his second wife. Aethelstan got shipped off to his Aunt Aethelflaed to raise as her own as her ward. Aethelstan paid his respects by giving a charter of privileges to St. Oswald's Priory, the place that Aethelflaed and Aethelred (her husband), with the note that he was doing it out of respect for the way they raised him and in honor of them.
Proves, that no matter the generation, Artists are beloved as parental figures to children who aren't of their own bodies, as I believe one of our resident Silents once put it.
~Chas'88
