Originally Posted by pbrower2a

chaotic and messy situation from multiple mistakes or problems happening in rapid succession

= Chronic Flailing due to catastrophic fail.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

I have often wondered what CF stands for on this forum. Clusterf***?

Yes, you are correct. That's how I've seen it.

List of turnings: Great Depression/WWII 4T; 1T; Boom Awakening; culture wars 3T; Crap Sack Years 4T; 1T; 2T (Apollo type?); 3T; Crisis of 2100. If this 4T plays out as a mild, meandering one, then there may be no dramatic Great Gate of History that separates the MilSaec from the next saeculum. (In America's Civil War Cycle there was a dramatic Civll War). The society of subsequent turnings may seem like a patched up version of the MilSaec's.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Other than Culture Wars, what we seem to have in the present is a hodge podge of small 'c' crises, adding up to a Crap Sack CF. So not only is our politics divided, but so is our attention.

Turnings may trump astrology cycles in some cases, especially in respect to generation characteristics, but they always apply to some extent too. Neptune's sign position is always to be consulted in regard to the zeitgeist. In this case, it is clear that divided attention is ultratypical of Neptune in Pisces, as was the case in the 1850s. And brower's statement is correct; and by 2025 there will be little trace of that divided attention.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

A house cleaning 4T?

With each passing day a Civil War redux - with or without Millennials becoming Artists - seems more likely.

It could be that something like what Chas once suggested could happen if the idea of succession get too serious. In short, we may get a military state where control is locked in by sending troops that are ethnic/racially different from the locals. For example troops from the inner city are sent to guard the deep south. And rural southern troops are stationed near big urban centers. That way, if trouble breaks out anywhere troops that don't really like the local population are at hand to crush dissent. Meanwhile, the connected elite happily divides the spoils in am America with an even higher GINI rate than we can even imagine now.
You want restoration, I got yer restoration. :

Originally Posted by herbal tee

It could be that something like what Chas once suggested could happen if the idea of succession get too serious. In short, we may get a military state where control is locked in by sending troops that are ethnic/racially different from the locals. For example troops from the inner city are sent to guard the deep south. And rural southern troops are stationed near big urban centers. That way, if trouble breaks out anywhere troops that don't really like the local population are at hand to crush dissent. Meanwhile, the connected elite happily divides the spoils in am America with an even higher GINI rate than we can even imagine now.
You want restoration, I got yer restoration. :

I've said it before, I'll say it again - if we enter into another civil war (which I think is quite possible) it won't be in the form of states trying to secede again. It will be more like what's going on in Syria today - rebel groups (extremists on either the left or the right) engaging in terrorist attacks, attacking/killing police, etc. in an attempt to send some sort of radical message. Then the government will come in and quash the rebellion using any weapon at its disposal. Just like Syria. That's the type of thing that I could foresee happening, say, around the early 2020s. Cities turning into urban warzones because of constant combat between "rebel groups" and the feds.

There will be no serious attempt at secession. America is much more divided than it was in the 1850s or 1860s. The split is not just north/south anymore. It's urban vs. rural, it's left vs. right, etc. There's secessionists in all 50 states. Also, states rights is becoming a left-wing mantra as well as a right-wing one. Just as some states don't want the feds forcing Obamacare down their throat, other states don't want the feds telling them to lock up people for marijuana (obviously Colorado's a good example of that).

That being said, I too believe that a second civil war / civil uprising, etc. is the most likely 4T crisis scenario at this point. Though I do think a war with China or even Russia is still within the realm of possibility. And of course the Middle East is always something to keep an eye on. Could you imagine the powder keg that would've ignited had we jumped into Syria last summer? Especially with Russia, Iran and possibly China getting involved on the Assad regime's side? That would've been an example of another Civil War-like 4T where hotheads and big egos would've accelerated a Crisis so that its climax would come about 10 years too soon, because the end result of such a conflict would've been nothing short of disastrous.

At this point, although another civil war seems somewhat likely, but again, a) I do not think it would play in the form of secession, and b) I do believe that it will play itself out as a full turning, not as a truncated turning like the Civil War (although whether or not that 4T was actually truncated is another matter of debate altogether).

P.S. I think on a relatively small scale, we experienced something like this already in the 1960s with urban race riots. They're often called riots, but if you go back and look at some of the footage, you'll see that the term "riot" is a bit of a misnomer. During those long hot summers, civilians took up arms against the police and military and engaged in close combat. Cops and soliders killed civilians, and vice versa. Snipers hid out on rooftops. Helicopters swarmed overhead. Now imagine such a situation playing out over the course of months, if not years, instead of just four or five days. Again, totally within the realm of possibility - it happened during the last Awakening. In my opinion, THAT is what the second civil war would look like, if it ever materalized. Not states seceding.

Originally Posted by Normal

I've said it before, I'll say it again - if we enter into another civil war (which I think is quite possible) it won't be in the form of states trying to secede again. It will be more like what's going on in Syria today - rebel groups (extremists on either the left or the right) engaging in terrorist attacks, attacking/killing police, etc. in an attempt to send some sort of radical message. Then the government will come in and quash the rebellion using any weapon at its disposal. Just like Syria. That's the type of thing that I could foresee happening, say, around the early 2020s. Cities turning into urban warzones because of constant combat between "rebel groups" and the feds.

There will be no serious attempt at secession. America is much more divided than it was in the 1850s or 1860s. The split is not just north/south anymore. It's urban vs. rural, it's left vs. right, etc. There's secessionists in all 50 states. Also, states rights is becoming a left-wing mantra as well as a right-wing one. Just as some states don't want the feds forcing Obamacare down their throat, other states don't want the feds telling them to lock up people for marijuana (obviously Colorado's a good example of that).

That being said, I too believe that a second civil war / civil uprising, etc. is the most likely 4T crisis scenario at this point. Though I do think a war with China or even Russia is still within the realm of possibility. And of course the Middle East is always something to keep an eye on. Could you imagine the powder keg that would've ignited had we jumped into Syria last summer? Especially with Russia, Iran and possibly China getting involved on the Assad regime's side? That would've been an example of another Civil War-like 4T where hotheads and big egos would've accelerated a Crisis so that its climax would come about 10 years too soon, because the end result of such a conflict would've been nothing short of disastrous.

At this point, although another civil war seems somewhat likely, but again, a) I do not think it would play in the form of secession, and b) I do believe that it will play itself out as a full turning, not as a truncated turning like the Civil War (although whether or not that 4T was actually truncated is another matter of debate altogether).

P.S. I think on a relatively small scale, we experienced something like this already in the 1960s with urban race riots. They're often called riots, but if you go back and look at some of the footage, you'll see that the term "riot" is a bit of a misnomer. During those long hot summers, civilians took up arms against the police and military and engaged in close combat. Cops and soliders killed civilians, and vice versa. Snipers hid out on rooftops. Helicopters swarmed overhead. Now imagine such a situation playing out over the course of months, if not years, instead of just four or five days. Again, totally within the realm of possibility - it happened during the last Awakening.

There's a lot of good insight here. No, we aren't going to man the barricades this time, because it simply won't work. Instead, we'll crabwalk through a maze of dissent and civil disobedience, punctuated by brief periods of violence. In the end, this will either trigger some change, or degrade into near chaos. I favor the last prediction, though not the actual result.

Assuming the end game is low-level chaos, what will end it? No one wants to live in a perpetual state of disarray, and, given the chaos scenario, eventually that will be state we'll live in. Will structure just gel out of the fog? Will the violence begin again? Will I live to see it ... whatever it turns out to be?

I'm thinking Appalachia, everywhere.

I'd say a few things would stop it. One would be a direct democracy, a second would be a fairly brutal punishment of the old elites and those administering it becoming the new elites, the third would be a remaining of our civic institutions in how they work on a basic level, or a return to some form of monarchy/dictatorship. I'm guessing that it will be a combination of 1 or 4 and 2 and/or 3. I'd really hope for 1 and 3, I think that some of 2 might be necessary for some people to really get it and be satisfied, and I hope that 4 isn't on the table, but if we wait too long, folks might become so disenfranchised that they think only that kind of hardline absolution can get things done.

Originally Posted by Kepi

I'd say a few things would stop it. One would be a direct democracy, a second would be a fairly brutal punishment of the old elites and those administering it becoming the new elites,

Hmmmmmm shades of my favorite song..... meet the new boss, same as the old boss..........

Originally Posted by Bad Dog

I'm thinking Appalachia, everywhere.

Instead of the gold standard we can have the meth standard. Cookers will be the new gods.

Originally Posted by Normal

I've said it before, I'll say it again - if we enter into another civil war (which I think is quite possible) it won't be in the form of states trying to secede again. It will be more like what's going on in Syria today - rebel groups (extremists on either the left or the right) engaging in terrorist attacks, attacking/killing police, etc. in an attempt to send some sort of radical message. Then the government will come in and quash the rebellion using any weapon at its disposal. Just like Syria. That's the type of thing that I could foresee happening, say, around the early 2020s. Cities turning into urban warzones because of constant combat between "rebel groups" and the feds.

There will be no serious attempt at secession. America is much more divided than it was in the 1850s or 1860s. The split is not just north/south anymore. It's urban vs. rural, it's left vs. right, etc. There's secessionists in all 50 states. Also, states rights is becoming a left-wing mantra as well as a right-wing one. Just as some states don't want the feds forcing Obamacare down their throat, other states don't want the feds telling them to lock up people for marijuana (obviously Colorado's a good example of that).

I think the country is split more geographically than that. Not as clear cut as the civil war, by any means. But secession might happen, although it seems unlikely. The reactionary groups will be the ones doing the attacking, as I see it. By the 2020s, the consensus will be for moving to the left, but the right-wing is dead set against any amount of left movement. And these folks do tend to be concentrated more in the red states, which are the right-wing states. These states are also inherently more rural.

Syria of course is much worse; it was the left (those who wanted freedom) rising up non-violently, after which Assad attacked and killed them. So they had to fight back. Perhaps encouraged by Assad, or taking advantage of the chaos, the right-wing terrorists also moved in to join the fray.

Nothing like this will happen in the USA. Demographically the country is moving to the left, including on culture wars issues like marijuana, and it's the right-wing that will resist. But they won't have enough support to create a long and deadly civil war. They will probably be put down in a matter of months. The most likely excuses for this resistance will be "the government is coming to take our guns away, over our dead bodies" and "the government isn't going to force me to pay more taxes for welfare cheats and socialism, etc." A left-wing movement is certainly likely too, but it appears that the government will be leaning their way, so violence may not happen. Instead, it will be the people rising up non-violently to force their government to act. But some radical hotheads could appear, and possibly some militia-like non-governmental fighting between extremists on both sides.

That being said, I too believe that a second civil war / civil uprising, etc. is the most likely 4T crisis scenario at this point. Though I do think a war with China or even Russia is still within the realm of possibility. And of course the Middle East is always something to keep an eye on. Could you imagine the powder keg that would've ignited had we jumped into Syria last summer? Especially with Russia, Iran and possibly China getting involved on the Assad regime's side? That would've been an example of another Civil War-like 4T where hotheads and big egos would've accelerated a Crisis so that its climax would come about 10 years too soon, because the end result of such a conflict would've been nothing short of disastrous.

At this point, although another civil war seems somewhat likely, but again, a) I do not think it would play in the form of secession, and b) I do believe that it will play itself out as a full turning, not as a truncated turning like the Civil War (although whether or not that 4T was actually truncated is another matter of debate altogether).

Yes, I agree "that a second civil war / civil uprising, etc. is the most likely 4T crisis scenario...." A war with China or Russia will not happen. The Middle East and the former USSR region/south Asia is indeed something to keep an eye on though. We weren't about to jump into Syria last Summer; only do some targeted bombing. The threat worked out, achieving its only objective. Obama was not about to get involved in the war; a missile strike is not a war. But the area is still a powder keg, and still a likely source of major trouble around 2025. And any US action could bring about anti-war dissent in the USA. The problem in the 60s was that the government promised change, and then put all its resources into a war, in which youth (especially black youth) were drafted. Unless the government is as stupid as LBJ and Co. were, this won't happen. But I wouldn't rule out a left-wing uprising. I do think radical changes to the constitution are possible; violence may not be needed to accomplish this, but controversy will of course, and it could be loud. These would certainly be the kind of changes we expect in a 4T, and possible only then. I have suggested such things as a change to a parliamentary system, taking the money out of politics, the end of our current two party system/proportional representation/ranked choice voting, and so on. If secession were to take off, then the end of our federal system is possible.

P.S. I think on a relatively small scale, we experienced something like this already in the 1960s with urban race riots. They're often called riots, but if you go back and look at some of the footage, you'll see that the term "riot" is a bit of a misnomer. During those long hot summers, civilians took up arms against the police and military and engaged in close combat. Cops and soliders killed civilians, and vice versa. Snipers hid out on rooftops. Helicopters swarmed overhead. Now imagine such a situation playing out over the course of months, if not years, instead of just four or five days. Again, totally within the realm of possibility - it happened during the last Awakening. In my opinion, THAT is what the second civil war would look like, if it ever materalized. Not states seceding.

Probably, although some of both is possible. And as I said, the violence will likely come from the right, not the left as in the Awakening. Of course, in the previous 4T, the violence also came from the right; much worse violence, in the form of Nazis, fascists, militarists....

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

= Chronic Flailing due to catastrophic fail.

Wow Rags, I somehow missed this my first time though.

I can see us getting there as the political system becomes unresponsive due to computer aided gerrymandering. And of course there are other factors. But it would be one of the major drivers.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Instead of the gold standard we can have the meth standard. Cookers will be the new gods.

Breaking Bad, indeed.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Wow Rags, I somehow missed this my first time though.

I can see us getting there as the political system becomes unresponsive due to computer aided gerrymandering. And of course there are other factors. But it would be one of the major drivers.

Computer Aided Stupidity. Think Airbus, or the new Boeing Dreamliner, the F-22, F-35, Littoral Combat Ship....

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Hmmmmmm shades of my favorite song..... meet the new boss, same as the old boss..........

This is actually normative for revolutions, but doesn't guarantee that the old boss is same as the new in all ways or even many. Take a look at the Civil War for an example: the North and South had radically different agendas, but agreed to the same political systems to achieve those goals.

The breakup of Yugoslavia (which of course was an imaginary country anyway, held together with autocracy), the French revolution ...

Once these things get going, they seem to take on the "chaos of battle" on steroids.

I can see in a CW Redux, people becoming refugees, moving to more congenial locales and exacerbating the current doctrinal schisms with actual geographical ones.

I know two families who used to live here in Albuquerque, both of whom were very conservative politically, and very conservative religiously - devout non-denominational evangelical "Christians," who moved to Texas, because they both said they "felt more comfortable" there.

However, the demographics of Texas, if allowed to play out for another ten or twenty years will make TX into another heavily Hispanic influenced area.

Several of the people here think this one will go a lot like The Glorious Revolution. Relatively low levels of violence, significantly high levels of systemic change. I'm inclined to agree given the Millennial generation. Not at all like the Civil War, which was extremely violent and with relatively little impact.

Originally Posted by TnT

The breakup of Yugoslavia (which of course was an imaginary country anyway, held together with autocracy), the French revolution ...

Once these things get going, they seem to take on the "chaos of battle" on steroids.

I can see in a CW Redux, people becoming refugees, moving to more congenial locales and exacerbating the current doctrinal schisms with actual geographical ones.

I know two families who used to live here in Albuquerque, both of whom were very conservative politically, and very conservative religiously - devout non-denominational evangelical "Christians," who moved to Texas, because they both said they "felt more comfortable" there.

However, the demographics of Texas, if allowed to play out for another ten or twenty years will make TX into another heavily Hispanic influenced area.

Good points. I read though that the geographical divide has been accelerating already for several decades now. People have already been moving to places where the people agree with them. An American schism could indeed accelerate this divide further.

Kepi wrote:

Several of the people here think this one will go a lot like The Glorious Revolution. Relatively low levels of violence, significantly high levels of systemic change. I'm inclined to agree given the Millennial generation. Not at all like the Civil War, which was extremely violent and with relatively little impact.

We agree

It doesn't mean I think it's the only option, I just think it's most likely. I also don't think that there's going to be no violence. Personally, I wish that could be the case, but I think the level of agitation is going to need to be met with blood.

Now, low violence, mostly because the odds of developing an opposition army just won't happen. Millennials are generally of like mind, and on issues they don't have a large and obvious majority in, they tend not to actually care that much about. So when 100,000 fed up Millennials show up at the capital, they can create as many barricades with add many cops and and as many servicemen as they like from any branch they like, because those people will let those people walk right past them and take it right to the elites directly. It won't be a war as much as an execution which accents the change.

Originally Posted by Kepi

Several of the people here think this one will go a lot like The Glorious Revolution. Relatively low levels of violence, significantly high levels of systemic change. I'm inclined to agree given the Millennial generation. Not at all like the Civil War, which was extremely violent and with relatively little impact.

The generational constellation now is more mature than at the beginning of the Civil War.

Millennials are getting older, and more are entering adulthood every year. Their numbers as voting age adults are still increasing, and from what I have heard, they are not ashamed to identify as socialist (and tend to reject unbridled capitalism) and generally disapprove of the PTB and creeping move to the right that is getting dangerously close to a totalitarian plutocracy. They also want to return to the separation of church and state (there is nothing wrong with religion, but history shows the two DO NOT MIX, and that is why this separation is written into the Constitution).

S&H may have been wrong about a few things regarding Millies, but in one thing they were absolutely correct: if Millies prove to be truly Civic (and aren't turned into Artists by being constantly silenced by PTB), they are the only generation that can save this country. I can't wait for them to get old enough to turn politics around from the inside instead of the outside, with a grey champion to lead them. Only then will we see real change. Unfortunately, things are insane enough right now that some violent revolution may be inevitable.

Originally Posted by sbrombacher

Millennials are getting older, and more are entering adulthood every year. Their numbers as voting age adults are still increasing, and from what I have heard, they are not ashamed to identify as socialist (and tend to reject unbridled capitalism) and generally disapprove of the PTB and creeping move to the right that is getting dangerously close to a totalitarian plutocracy. They also want to return to the separation of church and state (there is nothing wrong with religion, but history shows the two DO NOT MIX, and that is why this separation is written into the Constitution).

S&H may have been wrong about a few things regarding Millies, but in one thing they were absolutely correct: if Millies prove to be truly Civic (and aren't turned into Artists by being constantly silenced by PTB), they are the only generation that can save this country. I can't wait for them to get old enough to turn politics around from the inside instead of the outside, with a grey champion to lead them. Only then will we see real change. Unfortunately, things are insane enough right now that some violent revolution may be inevitable.

PTB? What does that stand for?

Powers that be.