A thought has occurred to me, and I don't know if it's been discussed before or not, so if it has feel free to point me to that discussion. Absent that, though, I'll try to explain my notion as best I can.

Many of us (most?) accept the existence of micro-turnings within individual Turnings. Thus for example the last Crisis (1929-1945) is often said to have a "Crisis - High" consisting of the years between 1929 and around 1934, when the conditions of the Great Depression were locked into place and the first inkling of what was to come - Roosevelt's First New Deal and Democratic hegemony in the United States - emerged.

It seems to me that each micro-turning that corresponds to the major Turning it exists within is coutercyclical - that is to say, it runs almost in inverse parallel fashion to the predominant theme of its time.

To elaborate on this:

* The World War II "Crisis - Crisis" was the "Crisis of the Crisis" - the period between the landing at Normandy and V-J day when it was apparent that the Crisis was soon to come to a Climax and it was only a matter of time before it was resolves. And so the Crisis itself was in Crisis - its conditions were rapidly coming to a head and were about to be resolved.

* The American "High - High" was a time of uncertainty and the age of film noir, opening with a jittery armed peace in Europe and gradually building to a quagmire on the Korean Peninsula.

* The "Awakening - Awakening" in the United States was a period of fundamentally conservative and reactionary dominance, with the expansion of the War in Vietnam and the surging to life of Nixon's "Silent Majority" colossus.

* The "Unraveling - Unraveling" of the immediate pre-September 11th era was the first period in more than a decade of domestic stability within the United States. The domestic economy was on the upswing, most major foreign conflicts were handled multilaterally and the domestic policy consensus trended towards the center.

Thus a micro-4t within a 4t is a "Crisis of the Crisis", when the conditions that created the Crisis are rapidly giving way. A micro-3t within a 3t, conversely, would be an "Unraveling of the Unraveling", when domestic conditions appear to have reached an (illusory) stability unseen since the First Turning.

Does this seem accurate? If so, might it be possible to sharpen our predictions about the future, both of this Crisis and the next era?

Originally Posted by Einzige

* The World War II "Crisis - Crisis" was the "Crisis of the Crisis" - the period between the landing at Normandy and V-J day when it was apparent that the Crisis was soon to come to a Climax and it was only a matter of time before it was resolves. And so the Crisis itself was in Crisis - its conditions were rapidly coming to a head and were about to be resolved.

This would have been in the mid 1940s?

* The American "High - High" was a time of uncertainty and the age of film noir, opening with a jittery armed peace in Europe and gradually building to a quagmire on the Korean Peninsula.

This would be the late 1940s/very early 1950s.

* The "Awakening - Awakening" in the United States was a period of fundamentally conservative and reactionary dominance, with the expansion of the War in Vietnam and the surging to life of Nixon's "Silent Majority" colossus.

This would be from about 1968-1973-ish? King assassination, Woodstock, Kent State, then Watergate, recession, and gas lines

* The "Unraveling - Unraveling" of the immediate pre-September 11th era was the first period in more than a decade of domestic stability within the United States. The domestic economy was on the upswing, most major foreign conflicts were handled multilaterally and the domestic policy consensus trended towards the center.

This would be about 1995-2000, the late 1990s tech boom.

^ Precisely so. And one can pursue this logic further back into the Great Power saeculum - the trust-busting economic nationalism of T.R. and Taft in the Unraveling - Unraveling stand out as markedly different from the pro-corporate policies pursued by Cleveland, McKinley, and Wilson. Further back: the micro-2T coincides with the election of the protectionist Benjamin Harrison in the middle of a period of declinimng tariffs lowered by Cleveland. And on it goes.

That's a good idea Einzige. I would only correct your description of the Awakening-Awakening. The "expansion of the War in Vietnam" happened at the very start of the 2T, in 1965. But a counter-cyclical trend might be attributed to the early 1970s.

Some people would start a turning with a microturning that is identical to the turning; IOW a Crisis starts with a Crisis-Crisis.

Myself, as of now I don't think micro-turnings exist; each turning varies too much from other turnings of the same number, and timings within them shift a great deal. In my opinion, this is indicated by astrological factors. But if you do buy them, your scheme seems interesting, and might turn out to be somewhat predictive if such micro-turnings do in fact happen.

Originally Posted by Emman85

This would have been in the mid 1940s?

Considering he's building off my theory, here's my dates:

Crisis-crisis: 1941 - 1945

This would be the late 1940s/very early 1950s.

High-high: 1945 - 1949

This would be from about 1968-1973-ish? King assassination, Woodstock, Kent State, then Watergate, recession, and gas lines

Awakening-awakening: 1968 - 1973

This would be about 1995-2000, the late 1990s tech boom.

Unraveling-unraveling: 1995 - 2000


Currently we're at the end of our Crisis-awakening, soon to be entering the Crisis-unraveling, by my counts next year sometime--although not everyone agrees with me on that count. I think the next Crisis-Crisis will be in the mid-2020s.

~Chas'88

Are you predicting an unusually long micro-3T, Chas? If we split the difference and locate the start of the Crisis proper to 2025, and allow for the typical four to five years these things take, that's an Unraveling twice as long as any other micro-Turning this 4T.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Are you predicting an unusually long micro-3T, Chas? If we split the difference and locate the start of the Crisis proper to 2025, and allow for the typical four to five years these things take, that's an Unraveling twice as long as any other micro-Turning this 4T.

Here's my take:

2005 - 2009
2009 - 2014 (this one I'm pretty confident as this micro-turning was started by the Town Hall meetings, peaked with OWS & the Arab Spring in 2011, and is slowly coming to an end as Obamacare goes into place)
2014 - 2019?
2019? - 2025?


If I were to speculate a 2008 Crisis start though:

2008 - 2011 (2011 is Crisis-Awakening no matter how you cut it, IMO)
2011 - 2016?

~Chas'88

I have thought about this too, and agree with the micro-turning theory. In retrospect I would definitely mark 9/11 as the "crisis" part of the Unraveling, not the start of the Crisis itself, as many (including myself) thought at first.

I would say we have entered the "Crisis-awakening" as more people are finally bringing their heads up out of the sand and demanding change, whether it's straight up shutting down the government or revamping it to serve the greater good. The regeneracy should happen soon, although I wonder if it's happened already and we don't know it yet.

Originally Posted by sbrombacher

I have thought about this too, and agree with the micro-turning theory. In retrospect I would definitely mark 9/11 as the "crisis" part of the Unraveling, not the start of the Crisis itself, as many (including myself) thought at first.

I would say we have entered the "Crisis-awakening" as more people are finally bringing their heads up out of the sand and demanding change, whether it's straight up shutting down the government or revamping it to serve the greater good. The regeneracy should happen soon, although I wonder if it's happened already and we don't know it yet.

We've reached a consensus without realizing it? God, THAT's a depressing concept. Nice one.

I hold that it's actually the very countercyclical movement of the correlative microturning itself that creates the social moment of each Turning proper. Two examples should suffice: in the last High, it was the global instability of the Truman micro-High that gave rise to the Eisenhower consensus that dominated the rest of the decade ("Communism, Korea and corruption.") And in the Missionary Awakening, it was the failure of President Harrison's attempt to restore the high tariff regime that Cleveland had undone in his first term that solidified public mood against protectionism - and which assuredly influenced many Missionaries, including Cordell Hull and Franklin Roosevelt, to become adamant free-traders later in life.

Originally Posted by Einzige

I hold that it's actually the very countercyclical movement of the correlative microturning itself that creates the social moment of each Turning proper. Two examples should suffice: in the last High, it was the global instability of the Truman micro-High that gave rise to the Eisenhower consensus that dominated the rest of the decade ("Communism, Korea and corruption.") And in the Missionary Awakening, it was the failure of President Harrison's attempt to restore the high tariff regime that Cleveland had undone in his first term that solidified public mood against protectionism - and which assuredly influenced many Missionaries, including Cordell Hull and Franklin Roosevelt, to become adamant free-traders later in life.

That is truly putting much more thought into Micro-Turnings than I had.

~Chas'88

But do you think it holds good, or am I overthinking it? I'm pretty certain I can identify a countercyclical trend in each micro-Turning back to the Era of Good Feelings, and they all align with the micro-Turning that correlates to the Turning proper. For instance: what happened in the micro-1T in the Great Power High? The Johnson impeachment and the nightriders of the South.

Originally Posted by Einzige

But do you think it holds good, or am I overthinking it? I'm pretty certain I can identify a countercyclical trend in each micro-Turning back to the Era of Good Feelings, and they all align with the micro-Turning that correlates to the Turning proper. For instance: what happened in the micro-1T in the Great Power High? The Johnson impeachment and the nightriders of the South.

I'll have to sit down and focus more in depth about it.

Well, I have alternate dates for the Civil War Saeculum and 1T of the Great Power.

1789 - 1811
1812 - 1832
1833 - 1849
1850 - 1869

~Chas'88

Those dates exclude Andrew Johnson's impeachment from the Great Power's First Turning micro-High, but the other notably counter-cyclical events of the period - the nightriders, the Klan, and the Redemption - should all still fit.

Originally Posted by sbrombacher

I have thought about this too, and agree with the micro-turning theory. In retrospect I would definitely mark 9/11 as the "crisis" part of the Unraveling, not the start of the Crisis itself, as many (including myself) thought at first.

I would say we have entered the "Crisis-awakening" as more people are finally bringing their heads up out of the sand and demanding change, whether it's straight up shutting down the government or revamping it to serve the greater good. The regeneracy should happen soon, although I wonder if it's happened already and we don't know it yet.

I'm sure the regeneracy is still in the future, though it's theme is probably well known already. There are far too man versions of what-comes-next to believe we've arrived already. As obviously poor optoins become passe, the regneracy will emerge - perhaps by default.

I have my preferences, but history tends to have the final vote.

Originally Posted by Einzige

Those dates exclude Andrew Johnson's impeachment from the Great Power's First Turning micro-High, but the other notably counter-cyclical events of the period - the nightriders, the Klan, and the Redemption - should all still fit.

The Klan in Tennessee disbanded in 1869. When studying the period 1869 kept coming up as a year of changing moods. And the Radical Republicans were out on their ears in 1874, after the Panic of 1873 brought forth what you'd call the "counter-cyclical events". The Panic of 1873 gave birth to what we'd call the Gilded Age.

~Chas'88

The micro-turnings idea is fun to pursue, even if it's validity may be limited.

It seems to me the alternative method might be working at the moment. Let's see how far I can take this.

The alternative theory is that micro turnings start with a micro-turning having the same archetype as the macro-turning it's in. So the 4T starting in 2008 would start with a crisis-crisis. That seems to describe well the micro-turning that included the near collapse of the economy, the Arab Spring and subsequent civil wars, and the near default created by the red/blue confrontation in 2011 that represents the start of the real battle and nature of this crisis in the USA. Now we are in a crisis-high, which is a relatively-stable period in which the crisis seems abated for the moment; simmering but not likely to explode. This is not the "regeneracy" concept, which seems not to apply to micro-turnings; it could occur anytime during the crisis, not at a particular moment on a regular basis. OR there might be two or more regeneracies (as in the New Deal, and then the resolute response to the Pearl Harbor attack).

This scenario also would apply to the first periods of the previous two 4Ts, at least. The unfolding of the great depression and the imminent bank failures, the first New Deal measures, the rise of the Nazis, etc, occured in the first 4 years of the last 4T from late 1929 to mid-1933. That would also be a crisis-crisis. The aftermath of the Mexican War in 1848 leading to the near-civil war of 1850 would fit the crisis-crisis of the Civil War; plus the worldwide famine and revolutions of 1848. The outbreak of the Revolution would be the crisis-crisis of that 4T also.

The New Deal programs created a crisis-high of relative recovery and optimism in the mid-1930s. The early to mid 1850s was a relatively peaceful break from the crisis, the crisis high. Prosperity returned and the Compromise of 1850 seems to have reduced the civil war ferment to a loud simmer. The crisis-high of the Revolution would have been the period when the Revolution was proceeding toward victory after the French alliance in 1778.

Now let's look back to the Unravelling. Under this scenario, the micro-turning preceeding the crisis-crisis would have been an unravelling-awakening. I don't know of any major spiritual movements in the 2004-08 period, although the religious right re-elected Bush. But the awakening of anti-Bush sentiment and mushrooming global warming green concerns that also helped elect a Democratic House might fit, as well as the explosive rise of social media and the new tech gismos like smart phones.

In the previous saeculum, the unravelling-awakening would have corresponded to the huge upsurge in social expression of the late 1920s, such as the Lindburgh flight and sports heroes as well as tech fads like radio, and the attempt to make world peace that fell apart soon. The mid to late 1840s had a similar social ferment consisting of railroad expansion and the loud westward ho ferment, plus many utopian and reform movements and spiritual ferment as well (e.g. Mormon trek to Utah, spiritualism led by the Fox's, outbreak of Bahai'ism). The unravelling-awakening of the pre-revolution era was the awakening of revolutionary sentiments in the time of the stamp act and the Boston massacre.

Let's follow more of this scenario and see whether I can discover patterns.

Moving forward now further into the crisis-awakening, in the previous 4T; that would fit the escalating labor movement in the mid to late 1930s. You could also mention the share-the-wealth movement, but that would have come during the crisis-high period. In the context of this 4T, the crisis-awakening would have included the run-up to World War II and the movement to stay out as well as awakening fears that we might get involved and becoming the arsenal of democracy. In 1939 America dreamed of the future in 2 world's fairs and a movie in which a Kansas girl traveled to Oz on a hurricane. The winds of war were blowing indeed. I also know that 1937 was the peak year of an astrology and theosophy revival.

The crisis-awakening of the Civil War is pretty clear; the Bleeding Kansas era, the Dred-Scott decision, the Fugitive Slave Law, Harper's Ferry; in general the the ramp up of hostilities leading to the war. The crisis-awakening in the Revolution would have included the articles of confederation era, and the revolts and disatisfactions with that (e.g. Shay's Rebellion), leading up to the constitutional convention. We can expect such an era from the end of the 2010s until about 2023- 2024. Reform will accelerate (though this is different from the last such micro-turning when reform stalled), and looming red-blue conflicts will further heighten.

The crisis-unravelling represents the crisis climax in its last years. In this context it represents the rapid "unravelling" of the old order. This was World War Two and the Civil War proper, as well as (possibly) the constitutional convention and the first years of the revolutionary republic; then the birth of the party system during the French Revolution. The next such era will happen 2024-2028.

The high-high is the start of the 1T. This is not a very stable period as the title might suggest, since there's readjustment after the crisis, and hatreds of foreigners or between races erupt. But it is the time that launches the first turning, as the new institutions are further developed and start to work. The late 1940s saw the optimism of the first post-war years, as well as immediate labor unrest and shortages. But NATO and the Marshall Plan brought stability to our allies, as America assumed the role of leader of the free world. Anti-communist ferment developed as the Cold War began and got hot in Korea. The late 1860s was reconstruction, opening the post civil war era and establishing human rights in the 14th amendment. Resistance continued from the South where the KKK was founded, as the northern radicals attempted to remake Dixie in its image. After the early partisan struggles of the last years of the Revolution crisis, in the high-high the republic was stabilized, but there were troubles with foreigners over the Alien and Sedition Acts and Citizen Genet.

A high-awakening would be the second portion of a 1T. Let's see to what extent the pattern might hold.

This would have been the early to mid 1950s. The climax and defeat of McCarthy's power comes in this phase, and the Supreme Court decision outlawing segregation. In 1955-56 came rock n roll and the folk music revival, as some victims of McCarthy came out of the closet. The Beat movement began in San Francisco; a precursor to the Awakening. In 1955 Rosa Parks refused to move to the back of the bus, igniting the civil rights movement that became stronger by 1960, just before and during the next Awakening proper. The pop art movement began, a precursor to psychedelic arts. The Hungarian Revolution exploded in 1956. That's some major events that seem to fit indeed. The next high-awakening would be due in the mid 2030s.

In the gilded age, the high-awakening would have come in the early to mid 1870s. This could correspond to the Grange movement, the first awakening of agrarian leftist populism that exploded in the awakening proper. This era included a depression, unlike the mid-50s. But it did arouse support for the labor movement in many places. Rather than spiritual, it was the peak of realism and anti-clericalism in Europe. (of course the mid-1950s was a time of 1T realism too, generally speaking). But in 1877 the artistic movement of impressionism began. This again was a precursor to the Awakening proper. Major upheavals began in the Balkans in 1875.

The early 1800s would have been the high-awakening in the "era of good feelings." This was the era of big camp revivals. It was the presidency of Jefferson who espoused the rights of the common man. It was the time of the Louisiana purchase and Lewis and Clark's "discovery" mission. Napoleon began his conquests. But I'm not sure if there were many events in this period that could really be called "awakenings."

The high-unravelling of the recent 1T would be in the late 1950s. This was a stable period, but people were getting impatient with Ike, and they voted for a Democratic congress in 1958. The start of the space race in 1957 was a major event in this era. The Cold War had eased, but then spiked up again due to the U-2 incident in 1960.

In the late 1870s and early 1880s, the gilded age was at its most stable. The depression yielded to prosperity and the start of high tarriffs and trust formation (the economic nationalism of List).

A major event of this period in the late 1800s decade were the disputes over embargoes between the US, Britain and France that eventually led to the War of 1812.

The high-crisis is not a true full-blown crisis, since it is a 1T and not a 4T. But let's see what happened.

In the last 1T called The American High, the high-crisis was the Kennedy years, called "Camelot." It was a great period for progress in human rights. The civil rights movement exploded. It also featured the most dangerous period of the Cold War. First there was the Bay of Pigs debacle and the Berlin Crisis. Then in the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world came as close as it has so far to nuclear war. At the end of the period, Kennedy was assassinated; the crime of the century. Fits well.

In the gilded age, this would have been about 1882-1886. In foreign affairs, the Bulgarian Crisis ignited more of the European conflicts that later exploded into war. Otherwise it was fairly stable in the USA, although the first stirrings of the social gospel movements in the ensuing awakening were felt.

In the era of good feelings 1T, I would correspond the high-crisis to the war of 1812.

Next post, the Awakening!

The awakening-awakening would be when it bursts forth at the beginning. That certainly describes the beginning of the recent awakening, bursting forth with the Beatles and Bob Dylan in 1964, the climax of the civil rights movement in Freedom Summer in 1964 and Selma in 1965, and the first black power march in June 1966. In 1966 LSD changed consciousness for millions of students, and the hippies formed in SF and NY. The anti-war movement erupted the same year, and the National Organization for Women was founded. Race riots erupted in Summer 1967, and again following Martin Luther King's assassination in 1968-- year of worldwide student movements, and French student-worker strike and the Prague Spring. LBJ was forced to resign. This Awakening was certainly front-loaded; it was the most explosive and creative period of the Awakening by far. Cosmic indications are that the next Awakening starting in 2046 will be front-loaded too.

Looking back to the previous section, it fits especially if we extend it 6 years to 1892, when the populist movement ran a presidential candidate, and a strike at Homestead PA mobilized the labor movement-- which had started in Chicago in 1886. Farmers in this period were "raising less corn and more hell." Post-impressionism began modern art.

I date the start of the awakening in the saeculum before that to the late 1810s, when student movements erupted in Europe, to 1820 when the Mormon Joseph Smith had his "revelation" and started his religion. 1820-21 was the climax of the revolutionary wave in Europe; in Greece and in South America after Spain's brief revolution in 1820. The Missouri Compromise was made in 1820.

The early 1970s were certainly an awakening-unravelling, since disillusion tempered the student and ethnic movements. I have said that the revolutions were "quieter" under Nixon as president, since this was the peak of the women's movement and environmentalism. The Cold War eased with detente diplomacy and the Vietnam War ended. This was the era of Watergate and other investigations, which further disillusioned people with government and politicians-- a major unravelling indeed! A recession in 1970 was followed by another major downturn caused by the energy crisis in 1973. The slowing economy tamped down the wild lifestyle experiments and protests of the sixties, but the gay liberation movement that began in 1969 was expanding.

The awakening-unravelling of the social gospel era would have been in the mid-1890s; also an era of depression. The labor and populist movements expanded in the Pullman strike (but repressed by President Cleveland), and in the Bryan campaign ("cross of gold speech"); but Bryan lost, and then McKinley also succeeded in tamping the movement down after 1896.

The corresponding period would have been in the early to mid 1820s, which was certainly a quieter period, especially in Europe when the student movements and revolutions were being tamped down in the Metternich era.

The awakening-crisis micro-turning would fit the severe recession following the oil embargo that peaked in 1975. Nixon was forced to resign, and Ford pardoned him. He issued WIN buttons as a tepid solution to the inflation-recession "stagflation" of the era. This micro-turning climaxed in 1978 with the murder-suicides at Jonestown, and the start of the Iran revolution that led to the hostage crisis in 1979 and further ruinous inflation. 1977 was a fairly stable year though, but featured President Carter unsuccessfully trying to solve the energy "crisis." Sadat traveled to Jerusalem that year, which was the start of negotiations for a peace treaty.

The awakening-crisis of the social gospel turning at the turn of the century would include the Spanish-American War, the Phillippine colonial war, the anti-imperialist campaign of W.J Bryan and the Alaskan gold rush (remember the previous CA gold rush of 1849 was during the previous crisis-crisis.) Imperialist wars were fought in Africa too. The Dreyfus Affair convulsed France. The socialist movement worldwide was at its peak with strikes and political movements, including in Russia when the Bolsheviks were founded. The Boxer Rebellion was suppressed in China.

The previous awakening-crisis would have included the late 1820s at the start of the Jackson presidency. It would have to be stretched a bit further to include all the upheavals of the early 1830s in Europe and America, after which I date the end of the awakening in about 1835. That doesn't leave much time for an awakening-high, in that case. The Liberator started publishing and the tariff of abominations was protested. Nat Turner's slave rebellion was in 1831.

One more section to write....

The awakening-high seems to attract a trigger-happy president who inspires confidence in some people.

The previous awakening-high micro-turning would have been the early Reagan years, say 1980-1984. Given the fact that it was still the late Awakening, this was pretty much like a high, especially an early high when the economy is still fragile after a "crisis." Reagan brought back the values and attitudes of the 1950s, including restarting the Cold War, with its climax in 1983 when an airliner was shot down. Taxes were lowered, and the counter-awakening was prominent. There was more social calm, although activism continued. There was suppression of labor unions. The president was belligerent and talked about evil empires. People were soothed by his confident manner and his pep talks about America and Americans.

The awakening-high of the social gospel era was the second term of TR and maybe a year or two before. In this era activism continued too, but TR turned his attention to foreign affairs, in which he carried a big stick and colonized a lot of small countries. There was a financial panic in 1907. People enjoyed the bluster and confidence of the president. War clouds gathered in Europe as a series of crises began.

The last years of awakening before the civil war would have been a few years of the late Jackson administration, about 1833-35. He too was a blustering president who inspired confidence with his active approach. He tried to protect the common people from big government and big business by opposing the national bank. In this period the anti-slavery activism was being tamped down as the Awakening ended, according to my dating. The South was beginning to fight back.

In the unravelling-unravelling, we would expect activism and inner-seeking to tail off and society more peaceful and indulgent, but underneath the social contract is coming undone, thus inaugurating the 3T.

Our most-recent unravelling-unravelling is an interesting period, lasting from 1984 to 1989, mostly during Reagan's second term. The Iran-Contra Affair discredited his cold war on communism, but he moved toward ending the Cold War with Gorbachev. The delusive prosperity proved fragile in the end, and inequality mushroomed. Cold War regimes decayed and fell on both sides of the Iron Curtain. High tech began to transform our lifestyle.

The Taft years inuagurated the unravelling-unravelling micro-turning of the "great power" saeculum. Taft, unlike Reagan, was a progressive in his support of reform of business practices and monopolies, but conservative in his reliance on institutions and laws; and he was restrained in foreign policy, refusing to send troops without congressional approval. This was a socially calm period compared to the awakening years. Wilson was elected at the end and began reforms.

This micro-turning would be the end of Jackson's term and the Van Buren years, including a financial panic brought about by withdrawal of funds from the national bank. Activism was quiet compared to the Awakening years.

The unravelling-crisis would have been the early to mid 1990s. There was a recession, and the end of the Cold War, the Panama invasion and the Gulf War. Bush pronounced it the beginning of a New World Order. Taxes were increased after Clinton was elected.

The unravelling-crisis would also correspond to World War I, quite similar to the Gulf War, in which Wilson declared a "new world order" by waging a war to end war and then establishing the League of Nations. At the start of the period, the income tax was passed.

It would be a stretch to include the similar Mexican War in this period before the Civil War, but it might fit approximately. Generally this would be the early 1840s, under Tyler and under Polk at the end. The French and Indian War might be a similar war in this micro-turning before the revolution.

9-11 was the main reason for saying that the unravelling-crisis came at the end of the unravelling, and thus using the other system of starting each turning with a micro-high and ending it with a micro-crisis. That would work if it ends in 2005, but 2008 is stretching it and putting 9-11 in a double-unravelling. But it could be said to be an anomaly to my scheme that a war-filled period like the late 1990s and early 2000s was an unravelling-high. Two wars were started. But highs and other high micro-turnings often feature a conservative turn in society, a tamp-down of reforms, economic adjustment and uncertainty at the beginning, and harassment of minorities and perceived enemies. These were all traits of these years too. Clinton was impeached in a sex scandal. Bush ended the progressive moves of the Clinton years, and people of middle-eastern appearance were hassled. Conformity and patriotism were encouraged and the Patriot Act was passed.

The previous unravelling-high also featured harassment of perceived enemies in the first red scare and resulting violations of civil liberties. Wall Street was bombed, cited by the authors as a parallel to 9-11. The Republicans defeated the League of Nations and elected Harding, pronouncing a "return to normalcy." The authors used the same phrase to describe the post 9-11 period. Reforms of the progressive era were ended and business was given free rein.

It's possible the anomaly extended to this micro-turning; I'm not sure there was an unravelling-high in the mid-1840s. Food for thought. I've already assigned many of the events to the previous and upcoming periods. Maybe there was overlap. There was agitation against immigrants in this period, iirc.

Micro-Turning years, as I see them, for Eric's sake:

1869 - 1873
1874 - 1877
1878 - 1882
1882 - 1886

1886 - 1891
1891 - 1896
1896 - 1901
1901 - 1908

1908 - 1913
1913 - 1918
1918 - 1922
1922 - 1929

1929 - 1934
1934 - 1937
1937 - 1941
1941 - 1945

1945 - 1949
1949 - 1954
1954 - 1959
1959 - 1964

1964 - 1968
1968 - 1973
1973 - 1978
1978 - 1984

1984 - 1989
1989 - 1995
1995 - 2001
2001 - 2005

2005 - 2009
2009 - 2014?


One way you can tell you're in a micro-unraveling as that's the micro-turning when the new dance music achievements are occurring for that turning. Ragtime emerges in 1896 - 1901 period. Jazz rose to prominence over the 1918 - 1922 period. Swing had been born already, but its heyday was in the 1937 - 1941 age. Rock 'n' Roll's heyday for the 1T was 1954 - 1959. Disco's heyday for the 2T was 1973 - 1978. 1995 - 2001 was the heyday for the bubblegum, Euro-dance, and Techno music, with 1997 being a landmark year.

That's not to say they don't get started in the micro-awakening, or that that style of music doesn't linger around for the micro-crisis. But their heydays are in the micro-unravelings.

~Chas'88

You still subscribe to 2005 as the start of our 4T? How quaint

The only recent dance music era that means anything to me is the early 1990s, the rave scene. That was the source of techno dance, and certainly 1997 was a nothing year IMO; most people here see it as that; the end of good pop music (which of course I place even earlier)

Micro-turning approximate and tentative dates, based on the paradigm that a turning begins with a micro-turning of the same archetype as the turning itself, and proceeds through the order; then jumps to the next double micro-turning. Emphasis on the USA events, with some European events that may affect the USA then or later.

crisis-crisis: crisis breaks out; depression, revolution, or near-civil war. Major reforms or agreements.
1774-1778
c.1850-1853
1929-1933
2008-2012

crisis-high: mini-recovery, relative stability and peace, proceeding toward accomplishment. "Indian Autumn."
1778-1783
c.1853-1856
1933-1936
2013-2018

crisis-awakening: agitation and rebellion increasing, dreams and fears
1783-1787
c.1856-1860
1937-1940
2018-2024

crisis-unraveling: the crisis "unravels" and all hell breaks loose. Conflict, controversy, new order founded.
1787-1794
1861-1864
1941-1946
2025-2028

high-high: adjustments and crisis aftermath. Hatred of foreigners and enemies. Institutions founded and start to work. Stability established, and reform retreats. Conformity advances or is enforced. Some conflict(s) continue.
1794-1799
1865-1871
1946-1952
2028-2033

high-awakening: social and cultural mini-awakening give hints of the awakening to come. Upheavals in Europe late in the period that bring trouble for the USA later.
1800-1805
1872-1877
1952-1956
2033-2037

high-unraveling: stable period of industrial advancement and concentration. Impatience with status quo on the rise though, and international tensions that break out in the next period.
1806-1810
1878-1882
1956-1959
2037-2042

high-crisis: international crisis occurs. First stirrings of awakening reform movements.
1811-1815
1882-1886
1960-1964
2042-2046

awakening-awakening: explosive outburst of awakening social movements and awakening of liberation impulses, and spiritual revelations.
1815-1821
1886-1892
1964-1969
2046-2052

awakening-unraveling: disillusion with the radical movements, or increasing suppression or defeat of them. The awakening is quieter and more feminine.
1821-1825
1892-1897
1970-1974
2052-2057?

awakening-crisis: international crisis, revolution and war affect the USA, and stir up counter-awakening or new awakening impulses.
1825-1831
1898-1902
1974-1979
2057-2062?

awakening-high: blustering president inspires confidence. Calmer and less socially-active period. Attacks on big government and/or big corporations.
1831-1835
1903-1908
1980-1984
2062-2066?

unraveling-unraveling: presidential restraint increases; socially calm, financial panics likely. Policies that support business and inequality grow.
1835-1838
1908-1912
1984-1989
2066-2072?

unraveling-crisis: short, successful international war likely, or soon to follow, which makes conquests and/or attempts to reshape international order. Financial reforms and tax increases. Many tech innovations.
1757-1763
1839-1844
1913-1918
1990-1996

unraveling-high: The unravelling takes a reactionary turn. Explosion by militants or some other excuse inspires repression, and/or a war that continues the one in the previous micro-turning. Suspicion of enemies. Return to normalcy and conformity; reform era ends. War, repression and reaction sets the course for the 4T to come.
1763-1769
1844-1848
1918-1922
1997-2003

unraveling-awakening: mushrooming social or revolutionary ferment and concern amidst continuing conservative policies. Social and tech fads. Rampant financial speculation.
1770-1773
1844-1849 (overlap anomaly)
1923-1929
2003-2008

So you start the saeculum with its crisis, then?

Your schema is very interesting, and I'd like to hear what others perhaps more well-versed in periodization say about it.