Okay, the reason for my absence has been largely due to a new obsession--though the old ones never go away--with the universe of Game of Thrones (TV adaptation)/A Song of Ice and Fire (book series). If The Grey Badger is around, she'd enjoy both the TV show and the book series, IMO, as since it's inspired on Medieval English/Scottish/and a bit of French history it's like playing a large game of Medieval Who's Who (not to mention the ultimate battle of the "best" of the Medieval era pitted against one another). For me it's like watching Shakespeare's History plays about the Wars of the Roses (the actual history which inspired this book series) only with (a tiny bit of) magic and without the Shakespearean verse. This is a fantasy series set in a world where magic has been dying out, but now is starting to make a comeback.

And now to combine one obsession with another. Here's a Turning & generational breakdown of the characters from this Medieval History inspired franchise. If I've discovered what I think is the historical inspiration for the character, I'll also note that down in parenthesis afterwards.

Place: A planet where the Continents are over-sized (the smallest continent, Westeros, which this story takes place on, is equivalent to the size of South America). Westeros is the continent that this story takes place on, and it's divided up generally into the following minor Kingdoms/Regions:

The North (Stark)
Iron Islands (Greyjoy)
Westerlands (Lannister)
Riverlands (Tully)
Vale (Arryn)
Reach (Tyrell)
Stormlands (Baratheon)
Crownlands (Targaryeon originally, Baratheon eventually)
Dorne (Martell)

All of which used to be seven separate kingdoms (not every land listed above was a kingdom, and not all were conquered immediately) until a king and his two sisters riding dragons conquered and united them. Current overlords/ruling families are in parenthesis above. The story begins 298 years after that conquest.

It should also be noted that on this planet, seasons last for several years in alternating patterns of Summer and Winter, with perhaps a one or two year transitional season such as Spring or Autumn. Often times characters will trace how long they've lived by how many Winters they've seen. The length of Summers and Winters seems to be random, some being rather short, others rather long. The book starts as an unusually long 10 year Summer is drawing to a close.

Turnings:

The book series is 5 books in length and in that time, it has covered the span of 2 - 2 1/2 years, and boy what an eventful 2 - 2 1/2 years it's been... The TV show has made it to about the halfway point of the third book by the end of the third season. I'll mostly be basing my analysis off of the information from the book, the television show "ages up" several characters (mostly because HBO is apparently squicky about showing a character that's supposed to be 14 year old having sex with someone more than double her age, so instead they age everyone up by two years on the television show).

So to start out, I'll be giving a lot of back story before I get into the main story itself.

The Third Turning: Robert's Rebellion, Robert's Reign, & A Game of Thrones

The year the first book A Game of Thrones (pub. 1996) begins in is 298 AL (After Landing), and it's been fourteen years since Robert's Rebellion, a war in which all of the adult characters of the book fought in and have since had years of peace and quiet. To be honest, one cannot talk of A Game of Thrones, without talking about Robert's Rebellion, as all the characters are reeling from its after effects, and it's legacy permeates the story.

Robert's Rebellion was a war which overthrew the Dragon-riding conquerer dynasty (Targaryeons), and put in its stead a separate family (Baratheons) that had claim to the Iron Throne as a technical cadet branch (Grandma was a Targaryeon royal, and the founder of the Baratheons was a Targaryeon bastard brother of the Targaryeon founder). It should be noted that by this point all the Dragons that the Targaryeon family had have died and been dead for at least a century. What began the war was, a tournament, ironically enough.

All the noble families gathered at Harrenhal (a large half-ruined castle in the center of the kingdom, based upon the real life Pontefract Castle in England). While there, the crowned prince, Rhaegar Targaryeon, crowns Lyanna Stark the Queen of Love and Beauty after winning the tournament. He does this while passing over his wife and mother of his young children, Elia of Dorne. It is usually this one action which is regarded as what would later begin the entire war, or at least a portent of the doom to come. For you see, Lyanna Stark was betrothed to Robert Baratheon.

What happens next: Lyanna Stark is "kidnapped" by Rhaegar Targaryeon--given her personality and known distaste for Robert, she likely ran away rather than was kidnapped. Rhaegar kidnaps her we later find out because he believes he will fulfill a prophesy if he can father three children, and Elia after giving birth to two, can no longer give birth to anymore.

Immediately, Lyanna's older brother Brandon rides to the capital city (Aegon's Landing) and demands for Rhaegar to come out and do battle with him in order to get his sister back. Rhaegar is not in the capital. Instead his father, "Mad King" Aerys, is. The "Mad King" arrests Brandon for threatening the life of his son. In response, Rickard Stark (Lord of the North), Brandon and Lyanna's father, rides down to challenge the King to a Trial by Combat for the release of his son. The "Mad King" accepts the challenge, but names Fire his champion. And so Rickard Stark is burned alive in his armer, while Brandon Stark is forced to watch--he is restrained with a chain around his neck and a sword placed just out of his reach as he watches his father die--and Brandon dies strangling himself to death trying to reach the sword to save his father.

This leaves two Starks (Eddard and Benjen) which the "Mad King" has to deal with, not to mention Robert Baratheon, whom he has to take care of as well, because Lyanna was his betrothed. Luckily two of the three folks he needs to take care of are in one place: The Vale. So the Mad King sends orders to Jon Arryn, Lord of the Vale, who had been raising Eddard Stark and Robert Baratheon as wards (Eddard and Robert are the best of friends because of this), and orders him to send him the heads of both Eddard and Robert. Benjen Stark meanwhile is just a kid still at home in Winterfell up in The North. Jon Arryn refuses to kill the young men he's raised as sons (he's failed to father children that live beyond the womb in both his marriages), and he is the first to raise The Vale's banners in rebellion against the Mad King. Eddard and Robert join their foster father in doing so, adding The North and The Stormlands in rebellion. However they need troops, and in order to do that, they need to fulfill a political marriage. It's then that Eddard goes and marries Catelyn Tully and Jon Arryn marries her younger sister Lysa to secure troops. Catelyn, it should be noted, was originally Eddard's older brother Brandon's betrothed. Eddard is now at the death of his father and older brother, the Lord of the North. Eddard beds his wife and continues on in the war, leading the troops from the Riverlands that were gotten by these marriages.

The war rages on for close to a year. What tips things in favor of Robert is when he meets Rhaegar (who finally comes out of hiding) in single combat during battle and kills him. After that, the Lannister family (which had been neutral until this) marches to the capital and tricks the King into opening the gates (saying that they'll help defend the capital). The King and Tywin Lannister had been friends (Tywin being the "Hand of the King", his second in command) until a falling out: Rhaegar marrying Elia instead of Tywin's daugher: Cersei. Tywin enters the city and sacks it. The Royal family is murdered most bloodily. The King is killed by his own guard (most notably by Jamie Lannister who was made one of the Kingsguard to ensure that Tywin would not revolt, being a glorified hostage). When Eddard arrives after the battle that defeated Rhaegar (Robert was recovering from it, so sent Eddard to take the city), he finds it being sacked by the Lannisters and the King he had vowed vengeance on for killing his father and brother, dead at the foot of the throne, with the smug Jamie Lannister sitting upon the throne rather cockily, having just killed the man.

Robert then arrives with Jon Arryn and Eddard and Robert have a falling out--Eddard claiming there's no Honor in how the Lannisters took out the innocents of the royal family (raping, torturing, and then killing Elia and the children), Robert simply says that the kids were Dragonspawn (Dragons being the symbol of the Targaryeons)--which upsets Eddard at how he can condone the killing of innocents--and Robert takes the throne. Jon Arryn becomes Hand of the King. Jon sends the upset Eddard to relieve the Stormlands which are under siege from the Reach. The capital may have fallen, but the war continues, and Lyanna is not to be found in the capital.

After word of the fall of the capital reaches the Stormlands, a peace is settled and the siege lifted. Rumors of Lyanna being further south in Dorne then reach Eddard's ears and he and a few of his most trusted bannermen from the North ride south into Dorne to rescue his sister. He arrives at The Tower of Joy, where she is being held, and does battle with the missing Kingsguard who had not been with either Rhaegar or the Mad King. After a battle only Eddard and his friend Howland Reed are left alive to enter the tower and find Lyanna in a bed of blood, dying of a fever. Her last words, which haunt Eddard (also known by Ned) from that day forward are "Promise me, Ned".

Eddard returns from Dorne to the North, taking with him a bastard son he had begotten sometime during the war, whose mother is "not known" (yeah, I know what you're thinking after that last paragraph, and it's a popular theory too, but it hasn't been confirmed or denied). He names the infant Jon, after his foster father, Jon Arryn. Since the child is a bastard and will be raised in the North he'll be given the surname of Snow (bastards in this continent are given geographical surnames based on where they were raised: Bastards of the North are called Snow, Bastards of Dorne are called Sand, Bastards of the Riverlands are called Rivers, etc.)

For all intents and purpose, the Rebellion is over at this point.

When he returns home to Winterfell, the castle of the North from which the Starks have ruled or lorded from for thousands of years (Starks were Kings prior to the Targaryeons coming). When he arrives home, he finds his wife Catelyn there having given birth to a son whom she named Robb after his friend and now King. Eddard is glad to see them, but tells Catelyn that he is planning to raise his bastard child in Winterfell alongside his trueborn son. This causes a problem in their marriage which they eventually learn to live with and get over, though Catelyn does essentially turn into the Wicked Stepmother trope to Jon Snow, though is a loving mother to her own children. Fast forward fourteen years and Catelyn and Eddard have four more children--two more boys and two more girls.

Robert's Rebellion and the way it is mentioned in the story is treated in a lot of ways like we would World War I as a "cut off point" for a generation. You were either old enough to fight in it or squire in it (at the youngest) or you weren't. Which means anyone who was ten or younger typically get treated differently and have a different demeanor than those who were older than that. In my opinion, Robert's Rebellion came in the middle of Westerosi society's third turning (judging by what'll come later). Eddard and his peers all mark me as Nomads in archetype, especially as the series progresses. Largely Robert's Rebellion was a thoughtless and pointless war, fought because two people ran away together and the father of one of them just so happened to be King. It's made morally just by the fact that the King was insane.

Generational breakdown of the people involved in Robert's Rebellion (282 - 283 AL)

Jon Arryn (b. 225 AL) - Artist archetype - he's always trying to compromise and get people to work together, often managing to succeed. He's a good example of an Artist archetype, even going so far to prove the example I've heard thrown around that Artists tend to be better parents to kids who AREN'T their own blood.

Hoster Tully (b. 235 AL) - Artist archetype - your run of the mill Artist archetype father and man. He's the only one who can hold the scheming Riverlords together. Schemes and plots to have his children make all advantageous marriages to secure the Riverlands from ever being invaded should rebellion ever break out. Then rebellion does break out and he's asked to throw support behind the rebels. He constantly is envoking the idea that Tullys have a "duty" to uphold and is upset when his children or even his younger brother disobey their duty.

Rickard Stark (born most likely btwn 235 & 240) - Artist/Prophet cusper archetype - he's a more gray version of an artist archetype, as he schemes to marry his children off to politically advantageous marriages (after nearly two and a half centuries of the Starks only marrying amongst their bannermen) and insists on traditional roles for his children (Lyanna wanted to play with swords as a kid, but Rickard didn't think it proper for a young lady). He values going about things the "right way" and gets stuck in that manner, which leads to him getting himself killed.

Brynden "the Blackfish" Tully (b. 240 AL) - Prophet archetype - he seems to be one of two examples of a Prophet that I can find in this entire saga. All the rest are various variations of Artists, Nomads, or Civics. (Which is ironic considering that this saga is being written by a Boomer). He refused to get married on his brother's (Hoster) command and decided to do things his own way. He became a knight and refuses to do things in any way but his own, known for his rebellious spirit. He is very devoted to his nephew and nieces, though.

Aerys II "the Mad King" Targaryeon (b. 243) - Prophet archetype de jure - he's a prophet only because the two surrounding figures are obviously Prophets. Mostly he's noted for having gone the way of many Targaryeons: insanity, which is due to the Targaryeons marrying brother to sister for centuries.

Tywin Lannister (b. 244 AL) - Prophet archetype - the only other obvious Prophet archetype I can find... he was ashamed of his father's weakness growing up, he vowed to make people fear the Lannister name, even going so far as to wipe out an entire house that rebelled against his father, down to the last infant. He has a vision of the Lannisters being feared and respected and is quite stern about those who fail to live up to his vision. He is ashamed of his youngest son for this reason, because he views him as being a shame to the family name and ideal he attempts to uphold. (inspired off of John of Gaunt, Duke of Lancaster)

Rhaegar "the Dragon Prince" Targaryeon (b. 259 AL) - Prophet/Nomad archetype - bookish, pretty boy, obsessed with fulfilling a prophesy of having three children

Brandon "the Wild Wolf" Stark (b. 261 AL) - Nomad archetype - Jonesers would love this guy and call him one of their own, enough said. He loved the ladies, loved a party and a good time. He liked fighting and getting down and dirty.

Robert "the Usurper" Baratheon (b. 263 AL) - Nomad archetype - loves a good fight, willing to do what he has to do to see the job done, loves partying and spending a LOT of money, devotedly in love with his betrothed Lyanna, slept around on Cersei the wife he did marry fathering sixteen bastard children, noted for being good in battle and always dreamed of military command not ruling a kingdom (he seems to be inspired off of an amalgamation of Edward IV & Henry VIII it seems)

Eddard "the Quiet Wolf" Stark (b. 263 AL) - Nomad archetype - sort of the persona that Nomads grow up into, rather than start out as. Suffers the Medieval equivalent of PTSD, but finds solace in the quiet family life he's able to carve out of life with Catelyn Tully. He's the "good boy" type of Nomad who actually listened to his Artist parents and mentors growing up and took their words and values to heart (inspired off of Richard, Duke of York, IMO).

Catelyn Tully Stark (b. 264 AL) - Nomad archetype - she's summed up by the Tully family words: "Family, Duty, Honor". If Eddard is the "good boy" Nomad, Catelyn's the "good girl" Nomad. I've seen many a Nomad mother as devoted to her children, also I've seen about the same number of Xer Nomad mothers that have less than zero concern for kids who aren't theirs or whom they think threatens theirs, like Catelyn thinks of Jon Snow. She's practical, pragmatic, and a good diplomat. (inspired off of Cecily Neville, IMO).

Lysa Tully Arryn (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype - She's the insane version of Catelyn...literally... after many still births and miscarriages, she manages to get one son, over whom she obsesses, keeps close to her, and spoils (inspired off of Catherine Parr, IMO). Always felt she was in Catelyn's shadow.

Jamie Lannister (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype - when asked why he broke his vow to kill the Mad King, his entire speech about how there's too many vows to uphold that conflict with one another suggesting he thinks: "what's the point?" is most DEFINITELY Nomad. As it turns out Jamie saved King's Landing from being burned to the ground, as the "Mad King" wanted to barbeque the place with everyone locked inside after he heard about the sacking of the city.

Cersei Lannister Baratheon (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype - the scheming twin of Jamie, and Robert's Queen, and considered the most beautiful woman of Westeros. She has an incestuous relationship with her twin vowing to give birth to none of Robert's children (inspired off of Margaret of Anjou, Joan of Kent, & rumors about Anne Boleyn IMO).

Lyanna "the She-Wolf" Stark (b. 267 AL) - Nomad archetype - the "leaps without looking" type of Nomad

Benjen "the Pup" Stark (b. ~270 AL) - Nomad archetype - the practical, pragmatic, good sort of Nomad. He is the "Stark in Winterfell" during Robert's Rebellion, ruling the North due to the death of his father and older brother Brandon, as well as the absence of his elder brother Eddard. The only reason he's still a core Nomad to me, is because he got some "war experience" being the "Stark in Winterfell" (the Starks make a big deal about ensuring that there must always be a Stark in Winterfell in control of the place).

Robb Stark (b. 283 AL) - Civic archetype - son of Eddard and Catelyn, named for Robert Baratheon, product of the marriage night

Jon Snow (b. 283 AL) - Civic archetype - reported son of Eddard and Unknown, named for Jon Arryn, mysteriously doesn't appear until after Eddard comes out of Dorne after finding his kidnapped sister dying in a "bed of blood"... hmm...

More later...

Nice stuff, ASOIAF has been my favorite series for years, and its message board was how I really got started on the internet.

I think Benjen might actually be a Civic cusp, in that he is old enough to remember how thigs were, but was a child during the actual bits. Also in his relationship with Jon and with the men of the Watch. He's definitely less Nomadish than a lot of the other men his age and up on the Wall.

I wonder how you plan on classifying the younger kids. Rickon is obviously an Artist, but Bran looks like he's getting just enough agency that by the end of the series he'll be a tail-end Civic.

As for the girls, I guess you could push it either way. I'd be inclined to call them tail end Civics, too, but I could see them as Artists as well. At least so far. Depends on what they end up doing.

I don't know, a lot of it depends on how much longer it takes for the series to get resolved, in-universe.

More on that. It's like I was saying to JohnMc82 in the 1997-2004 cohorts thread. If you assume that the War of the Five Kings is the crux of the Crisis, then Jon and Robb are tail end Civics (roughly some of the last cohorts to do actual fighting) and all of the younger kids are definitely Artists, with Sansa's future definitely in manipulating institutions (and likely being a terrible mother), Arya's storyline being a sort of grotesque and extended Grave of the Fireflies type ordeal, Bran attending to the task of healing, and Rickon growing a sort of Rebel Without a Cause in the following 1T. Here Robert's Rebellion would be the start of the Crisis, Robert and Ned would actually be Nomad/Civic cuspers, Benjen would be the start of the core Civics, and Robb and Jon the very end. The Crisis would beThe Fall of the Targaryens and What That Caused. Of course, as readers, we know that the Crisis basically starts when the book does (or really shortly after), but a hypothetical observer armed with T4T in-universe (say, a maester or something) would be inclined to think that way, at this point in the series.

But if you factor in whatever goes on with Daenarys and the Others in the future, the War of the Five Kings just looks like the opening act, a senseless late 3T/early 4T war that distracts from the real issues, and allows them to build to truly epic crisis proportions.

Just the way that the GWOT / 9/11 might look if WWIII with peer competitors is in our near future.

EDITED to provide link, and flesh out a hypothetical.

Also, Feast for Crows / Dance with Dragons covers a period of about 5 years. The reason there was such a huge gap in the publishing of the books after A Storm of Swords was that originally GRRM wanted a five year (in-universe) gap to allow the kids to age into adolescents, and for things to cool down (literally and figuratively), but wrote himself into a corner and had to go back and fill that gap in. The events at the beginning of the Winds of Winter (which he needs to hurry up and finish) will be the end of that gap and beginning of where he wanted the story to go 10 years ago (RL).

No comment here - just that I don't have HBO and I've already received one DMCA warning from my ISP.

Originally Posted by JohnMc82

No comment here - just that I don't have HBO and I've already received one DMCA warning from my ISP.

Really? Sorry, but I must interject. Fuck you [JohnMc82's ISP] and fuck you to hell DMCA shit.

Edit, what is your ISP's company name? I'd like to send 'em a fuck you email.

Get yourself a VPN. Then you can download in (relative) peace.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Nice stuff, ASOIAF has been my favorite series for years, and its message board was how I really got started on the internet.

I think Benjen might actually be a Civic cusp, in that he is old enough to remember how thigs were, but was a child during the actual bits. Also in his relationship with Jon and with the men of the Watch. He's definitely less Nomadish than a lot of the other men his age and up on the Wall.

I wonder how you plan on classifying the younger kids. Rickon is obviously an Artist, but Bran looks like he's getting just enough agency that by the end of the series he'll be a tail-end Civic.

As for the girls, I guess you could push it either way. I'd be inclined to call them tail end Civics, too, but I could see them as Artists as well. At least so far. Depends on what they end up doing.

I don't know, a lot of it depends on how much longer it takes for the series to get resolved, in-universe.

My point is, the Crisis has only just started and is only two to two and a half years old at this point. To quote the author he wanted to start out with his main characters as children and have them "grow up" before the end of his story came to be. So I expect all the kids to be much much older by the time the Crisis does finally come to a close.

And I take that the main Crisis is NOT the War of the Five Kings, that's a folly distracting from the real Crisis issue: The Return of the Others.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Also, Feast for Crows / Dance with Dragons covers a period of about 5 years. The reason there was such a huge gap in the publishing of the books after A Storm of Swords was that originally GRRM wanted a five year (in-universe) gap to allow the kids to age into adolescents, and for things to cool down (literally and figuratively), but wrote himself into a corner and had to go back and fill that gap in. The events at the beginning of the Winds of Winter (which he needs to hurry up and finish) will be the end of that gap and beginning of where he wanted the story to go 10 years ago (RL).

Actually, looking at the amount of time actually covered in those two books, it's still only 2 - 2 1/2 years later at the end of the book. I just had to do a timeline for the story and had to use the appendices in the back for reference of the characters' ages. The characters over the course of five books have only aged about 2 years. He really either needs a time leap between this last book and this next one, or he's decided to foreshorten the expanse of the story stretching out over so many years. But personally I suspect he's going to split the next book into two more books and the last book into two or possibly even three more, at the rate he's going...

There's a whole hell of a lot more story to go IMO.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

I think Benjen might actually be a Civic cusp, in that he is old enough to remember how thigs were, but was a child during the actual bits. Also in his relationship with Jon and with the men of the Watch. He's definitely less Nomadish than a lot of the other men his age and up on the Wall.

I go with he was an early teen (13 - 15) age range. And he does have the pragmatic survival skills (he has to in order to become First Ranger). He just expresses it quite differently IMO than other Nomads of this generation do. He certainly has Nomad philosophies when interacting with Core Civics.

Also recall that as the "Stark in Winterfell", he essentially "came of age" at that moment, there was no Mother to guide him as there was for Robb when he had his "come of age" moment at 14, as Benjen's mother had been long dead by that point.

And these scenes always struck me as your prototypical Nomad's advice to a Civic:

“This is not Winterfell', he told him as he cut his meat with fork and dagger. 'On the Wall, a man gets only what he earns. You're no ranger, Jon, only a green boy with the smell of summer still on you.”

Originally Posted by A Wiki of Ice and Fire

He talks with Jon and the boy asks to be allowed to join the Night's Watch. Benjen tells Jon to wait a few years until he is certain but Jon insists.

Earn your way, live life a little before committing to something serious, and don't be so damned eager. That's the voice of a tired Nomad finding the energy and exuberance of a youthful Civic to be somewhat irritating and unwise.

No, I see the Nomad/Civic cuspers plain as day in ASOIAF, they're rather obvious. It's anyone born between 273 - 278 AL, and old enough to have memories of the Rebellion, but were clearly in the role of "children". The last of the core Nomads in this world were those old enough to Squire during Robert's Rebellion which means anyone older than age 10 is a core Nomad IMO. Which makes the Nomad/Civic cuspers anyone from age 10 - 5.

Just noting High Lords' children:

Edmure Tully - 273
Willas Tyrell - ~273
Tyrion Lannister - 274
Arianne Martell - 276
Garlan Tyrell - 277
Renly Baratheon - 278

Edmure strikes me as a rather prototypical example of a Nomad/Civic cusper male to be honest. And now that I think on it more, Edmure is the Medieval version of LBJ. Think about it, terrible at war, overly concerned with keeping the smallfolk eating and protecting them to the point of being impractical... damn it fits better than my half-baked idea thought it would. Arianne is the female version incarnate. Compared to this group, Benjen Stark is most DEFINITELY a Nomad.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by JohnMc82

No comment here - just that I don't have HBO and I've already received one DMCA warning from my ISP.

There are books, good man. Five of them to be precise, so far...

~Chas'88

So happy to see this thread. I'm currently reading the fifth book and near the end. When I found out HBO was aiming for only 7 seasons I almost had this reaction:
http://youtu.be/qx9EHld0Geg

An interesting parallel to make with the four turnings is how the seasons in this world tend to last years rather than a few months (sometimes it can last a generation). A long Winter truly is doom to many who live in the north. I often thought about how generational theory applied to the books, but never really drew too many parallels since GRRM never alluded to a prior crisis to compare it to. Perhaps the cycles directly correlate with the changing of the seasons, but that would make for a much shorter cycle. Still, it's likely that GRRM has never read Strauss and Howe so it's not as if he's consciously trying to fit his fiction into the theory. I'll try to add my thoughts to this discussion when I have more time, but I pretty much agree with your assessment Chas.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Actually, looking at the amount of time actually covered in those two books, it's still only 2 - 2 1/2 years later at the end of the book. I just had to do a timeline for the story and had to use the appendices in the back for reference of the characters' ages. The characters over the course of five books have only aged about 2 years. He really either needs a time leap between this last book and this next one, or he's decided to foreshorten the expanse of the story stretching out over so many years. But personally I suspect he's going to split the next book into two more books and the last book into two or possibly even three more, at the rate he's going...

There's a whole hell of a lot more story to go IMO.

Keeping track of how much time has passed is probably the thing he's the least good at. Compare that with Tolkien who was almost obsessive over the exact distances traveled, how long they would take, and other such details. Tolkien was a better world builder, but he was essentially telling a story from a small handful of POVs. GRRM has a harder task with all of the character POVs he follows concurrently.

And I take that the main Crisis is NOT the War of the Five Kings, that's a folly distracting from the real Crisis issue: The Return of the Others.

Yeah, dude, I agree with you. Said it here.

Of course, as readers, we know that the Crisis basically starts when the book does (or really shortly after), but a hypothetical observer armed with T4T in-universe (say, a maester or something) would be inclined to think that way, at this point in the series.

But if you factor in whatever goes on with Daenarys and the Others in the future, the War of the Five Kings just looks like the opening act, a senseless late 3T/early 4T war that distracts from the real issues, and allows them to build to truly epic crisis proportions.

I was just using to expand a ASOIAF point I had made in another thread, namely this one.

Just the way that the GWOT / 9/11 might look if WWIII with peer competitors is in our near future.

Which I'm not doing to hijack your thread, just that I had made the ASOIAF reference in relation to our present circumstances a couple of days ago.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Yeah, ok, I'll buy your Benjen placement. Once again, I totally agree that Robert's Rebellion was 3T, and that the crisis starts when the books do. I'm still curious how you place the younger kids, and like I said, it depends on how long the stuff with Dany and the Others goes on, and what they end up doing. If Bran, for instance, does something to help defeat the Others, but is still a teen by the end of the books, is he a Civic, or an Adaptive? If he is a Civic, is everyone his age one as well, or is he going to be an exception to his overall generational trend due to... stuff?

It sure will be interesting to see. GRRM needs to hurry up, though, he's not that healthy looking, and we don't need another Robert Jordan.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Yeah, ok, I'll buy your Benjen placement. Once again, I totally agree that Robert's Rebellion was 3T, and that the crisis starts when the books do. I'm still curious how you place the younger kids, and like I said, it depends on how long the stuff with Dany and the Others goes on, and what they end up doing. If Bran, for instance, does something to help defeat the Others, but is still a teen by the end of the books, is he a Civic, or an Adaptive? If he is a Civic, is everyone his age one as well, or is he going to be an exception to his overall generational trend due to... stuff?

It sure will be interesting to see. GRRM needs to hurry up, though, he's not that healthy looking, and we don't need another Robert Jordan.

Oh I'll get to the younger kids as I get to plot lines in the analysis which require me to bring them in.

~Chas'88

Although I agree that the basic outline of AGOT is the War of the Roses, a 1 to 1 correlation is probably simplifying. GRRM took a lot from various sources. Take a look at http://asoiaf.westeros.org/ for the thousands of theories.

Originally Posted by Gianthogweed

Keeping track of how much time has passed is probably the thing he's the least good at. Compare that with Tolkien who was almost obsessive over the exact distances traveled, how long they would take, and other such details. Tolkien was a better world builder, but he was essentially telling a story from a small handful of POVs. GRRM has a harder task with all of the character POVs he follows concurrently.

Doing a quick brain scan, the only author I can bring to min who effectively did both is Leo Tolstoy in War and Peace. I assume we're not interested in quite that much detail in this form of literature.

Originally Posted by annla899

Although I agree that the basic outline of AGOT is the War of the Roses, a 1 to 1 correlation is probably simplifying. GRRM took a lot from various sources. Take a look at http://asoiaf.westeros.org/ for the thousands of theories.

To paraphrase the man, he's taking sources mostly from English, Scottish, and a little bit of French history.

A good website for a person devoted to playing the "what is equivalent to what":

http://history-behind-game-of-thrones.com/

Personally I find bits and pieces that are used from the general 1066 - 1603 period of English history. Olenna Tyrell is most DEFINITELY inspired by the elder version of Eleanor of Aquitaine. Sansa seems to go back and forth on inspirations from two Elizabeth's (Elizabeth of York and her granddaughter Elizabeth I--the latter I noticed from Sansa's relationship between Baelish & her aunt Lysa resembling the complicated relationship between Edward Seymour & Catherine Parr that Elizabeth I had as a child) actual histories.

~Chas'88

Part Two of The Third Turning: Robert's Early Reign & The Greyjoy Rebellion; Period of: 283 - 289

Where we last left our story, Robert Baratheon had successfully overthrown the Targaryeon Dynasty, with help primarily from the Stark, Tully, and Arryn families. The Starks and Arryns are important families to have on your side as they are the two oldest ruling families in Westeros. The Starks have been ruling the North for 8,000 years as old Kings of the First Men, while the Arryns have been ruling the Vale since the Andal Invasion. The Arryns also pride themselves as being the most pure-blooded and oldest Andal aristocracy.

Now you hear me mention the Andals and the First Men. Since Westeros is based on a bastardized version of English History and its several different waves of invasion by various peoples. Consider the First Men to be equivalent to the Celts/Picts, the Andals to be equivalent to the Anglo-Saxons, and the Targaryeons and their newly appointed nobility over kingdoms that resisted them and had their Andal families killed off (Tullys, Baratheons, Tyrells, and Greyjoys) to be the Normans. That right there should inform you as to the relationships of these people in the big picture sense.

So Robert's Rebellion was a rebellion supported not only by the Targaryeon off-chute elite (Baratheons) but also symbolically by the Targaryeon appointees (Tullys), Andals (Arryns), and First Men (Starks). Essentially symbolically saying "we're all sick and tired of this bullshit".

They were joined at the last minute, after it seemed assured that the STAB alliance would win (after the death of the crowned Prince Rhaegar), by the Lannisters, the most wealthy family (they own the majority of important gold mines in Westeros).

You should also be aware that in order to secure their place in this new alliance by showing up late, the Lannisters essentially sacked the capital city, then tortured and murdered the Targaryeon royal family--down to the infant children. This causes problems for the Lannisters as Rhaegar's wife was Elia of Dorne, which from this point forward causes Dorne to desire and plot vengeance against the Lannister family. It also begins a grudge between the Starks and the Lannisters, as Eddard feels that the murder of innocents is inherently wrong. A scene which stays with Eddard is the two corpses of the young children of Prince Rhaegar being presented to Robert upon arrival in the capital. Their bodies wrapped in the Lannister red cloak to hide just how bloody they are, and Robert looking at the children and proclaiming them to be "Dragonspawn" and thus unworthy of any pity. That begins a divide between Eddard and Robert as well as he comes to see that his friend and "brother" isn't as great and just as he thought he was.

Knowing the loose ends of Robert's Rebellion I'll fast forward to the status quo that gets set after Eddard returns to the North. It's really in the earliest days of Robert's reign that the fault lines along which his kingdom will eventually fall apart on on his death, appear in their infancy:

Eddard stays in the North, and withdraws from dealing with the South. He sets about as isolationist an agenda he could possibly do and still remain part of Westeros. He rules the North in Robert's name, but has little to no contact with him. It should also be noted that Eddard makes a mistake of his own in bringing back Barbrey Dustin's favorite horse (as her husband Willam Dustin had promised her he would do) but left her husband's bones buried in the South in Dorne. This continues a grudge Barbrey had already fostered against the Starks (she'd fallen in love with Brandon as a girl and always wanted to marry into the Starks but got denied at each step). The Dustins it should be noted are a bannerman family sworn (aka underneath) to the Starks. Ned's chosen isolationism further stokes a sense of Northern independence, already present, but increased much more so by the cooled relationship between Ned and Robert. Eddard has a rocky start to his marriage with Catelyn Tully, by insisting on raising Jon Snow (the babe he claims as his bastard son) at Winterfell along with his trueborn son Robb. They eventually come to some kind of understanding (he forbids speaking of the boy's mother, leading Catelyn to speculate) as three years after Robb is born, the next little Stark child is born, a girl named: Sansa.

Meanwhile in the South...

Jon Arryn has now become Hand of the King (think Prime Minister) to Robert, and advises him that in order to secure his throne he needs to marry and produce a few heirs, since his betrothed Lyanna Stark has died. He suggests that Robert turn to looking at the Lannisters, essentially saying that by taking out the Royal Family, they did secure his throne. So Robert follows his advice and marries Cersei Lannister, the daughter of Tywin, and pardons Jaime Lannister from killing the Mad King. Cersei meanwhile is in love with her twin sibling Jaime. After a marriage night where in climax Robert calls out Lyanna's name, Cersei vows to not even try having an actual marriage with Robert (since he obviously won't with her), and also vows to have no children besides Jaime's--taking moontea (birth control) after coupling with Robert ever after. Cersei's youngest brother, Tyrion, who was nine at the end of Robert's Rebellion, is a dwarf and universally loathed (and referred to as the "Imp"). He is ugly and puts all his attention and energies into cultivating his mind and knowledge in order to make up for what he lacks otherwise.

Concerning Jon Arryn, he begins to try and appease his much younger wife Lysa, by promoting a man named Petyr Baelish to the customs officer position of Gulltown (the major port in The Vale, and one of the major ports in all of Westeros). Petyr was fostered for a time with the Tully family. The Baelish family is a new family, descending from Petyr's grandfather who was a hedge knight (i.e. a wandering/landless knight) until doing some service for the Arryn family, for which the Baelish family was given a small plot of land in the "Fingers" (a group of peninsulas clustered together), with the Baelish family being given the smallest. This leads to Petyr Baelish becoming known as "Little Finger" as a jibe. Petyr holds a big grudge over the higher lords because Petyr thinks they give themselves airs when really they're no better than anybody else. This grudge grew as he fostered with the Tullys, falling in love with Catelyn Tully, he even challenged Brandon Stark (Catelyn's original betrothed before his untimely death) to a duel for Catelyn's hand--and lost. That duel led to Petyr realizing that he could never win by the sword and since then has put trust in scheming and clever tricks to get his way and pit people against each other. Meanwhile Lysa fell in love with Petyr and one night lost her virginity to Petyr (all the while pretending to be her sister Catelyn) and got pregnant. Lysa's father Hoster forces Lysa to drink moontea when he finds out she's pregnant and it likely screws Lysa up internally for the rest of her birthing career. As with Jon Arryn, she has stillbirth after stillbirth after infant death. Of course it's likely Jon didn't help matters much as he himself failed with his two wives before him to produce heirs in a similar manner. Jon Arryn further tries to please his young wife by appointing her uncle, the rebellious knight, Brynden Tully, to the position of "Knight of the Gate" which protects the only road in or out of the Vale--which is a high position of honor.

Meanwhile the family dynamics in the Baratheon clan for Robert and his two younger brothers aren't so great. Stannis, the middle brother, lasted out a siege in the Stormlands from a large invading force from the Reach. The only reason he survived was because of a resourceful smuggler and sailor named Davos who smuggled in food when he could. Actions which earn Davos a semi-pardon for his past life as a smuggler--instead of getting his whole hand chopped off, only the tips of his fingers--a knighthood, and some lands. Stannis believes that he held Storm's End and the Stormlands and while he shouldn't expect any reward, he still desires some kind of recognition from his brother but never gets any. Stannis is also upset by the close relationship that Robert has with Ned, feeling that THAT should be the relationship between him and Robert and that Ned just gets in the way. This resentment of Robert is further stoked as Robert continues to simply take Stannis and his actions for granted. The biggest offense is giving the castle of Dragonstone (the traditional Targaryeon seat from before the conquest) to himself, making him only Master of Ships (he should be Hand of the King!), and naming him Prince of Dragonstone (the traditional title for the Targaryeon successor), while promoting the youngest brother Renly to the position of Lord of Storm's End and Lord of the Stormlands--(a position he rightly earned by defending the place and should be his as the next eldest brother!) for which the 5 year old Renly has done absolutely nothing for and does nothing but to inflate Renly's already growing sense of ego.

As much as Stannis talks about valuing "expect no reward for what I do", he has trouble actually living up to those values. Stannis as a character reminds me in a lot of ways of a Jane Austen quote where Mr. Darcy admits that he was "raised with good values, but left to follow them in pride and conceit". Stannis is very much this. He has good values, he knows what is right and in theory follows them to a tee--but he has a hard time actually putting real belief and conviction in them. In a lot of ways he puts value on "being good" solely for the purpose of showing just how "wrong" everyone else is. It's an issue he as a character struggles with over the course of the story in the main book series. As you can tell, I have a bit of an issue with Stannis' expectations, though I do admire his struggle.

The Dornish Martells and Tyrells of the Reach lick their wounds (having been loyalists to the Targaryeons) and plot to find someway into the new regime (Tyrells) through eventual marriage of the newest addition to the family: Margerey. The Tyrells' other children (three sons): Willas, Garlan, and Loras. Or they begin to plot to bring back the last of the exiled Targaryeon dynasty (Martells).

Speaking of the exiled Targaryeons--the wife of the Mad King, his sister Rhaella, was on Dragonstone at the time of the sack of King's Landing, giving birth to the youngest member of the Targaryeon royal family: Princess Daenerys. She'd also taken the nine year old Prince Viserys (Rhaegar's younger brother) with her. Queen Rhaella dies not long after childbirth. Once news of the fall of King's Landing reaches Dragonstone (as well as the murder of Rhaegar's young children and wife), the two remaining Targaryeon kids are then taken by the last remaining loyal Kingsguard to them: the notably extremely elderly Ser Willem Darry, who is obsessed with keeping to his duty . He takes them into exile in the Free Cities (think of the Italian City States, mixed in with a bit of Greek City States) where for years they go from city to city, always on the run.

The last remaining Tully sibling that I have not talked about yet, Edmure. Edmure was ten years old at the end of Robert's Rebellion--too young to squire. His father Hoster tries to take a stronger hand with his son, as he's his only child left to him. This has rather unintended consequences of Edmure taking after his Uncle, choosing to shirk his responsibility in favor of being the Medieval equivalent of a frat boy. His notable achievement during this period is he eventually loses the v-card and becomes quite promiscuous. One time even getting so drunk that he couldn't get it up to have sex--leading to a bard hearing about his problem from the whore he'd been bedding, and the bard deciding to compose a song entitled the "floppy fish" (the fish being the sigil of House Tully), which leads to Edmure's dislike for bards, the banning of that particular song, and a slight decrease (though not by much) in Edmure's drinking.

The last high noble family to speak of: The Greyjoys of the Iron Islands. One joke I've heard about the Iron Islanders is that they are "Cthulu worshiping Vikings" and honestly that's a pretty apt description for their culture of valuing stealing and taking what they want, as prescribed by their chosen god: the Drowned God. The Iron Islands remained neutral throughout Robert's Rebellion, so after all the dust settled from Robert's Rebellion (six years later), the Greyjoys decide to rebel against Robert (whom they perceive as weak) and yet another war breaks out that's over relatively quickly. The Greyjoy Rebellion stems from the Iron Islanders after the death of the Targaryeon dynasty to return to their "Old Way" of stealing and pillaging, as well as to have independence from the rest of Westeros. Stannis, doing what he does best, commands the Royal Navy to lead the Iron Fleet into a trap--destroying it. Aeron Greyjoy (the youngest brother of the head of the family, Balon) has a religious experience during this attack and converts to being a Priest of the Drowned God after such an experience. After which the Greyjoy Rebellion becomes more about the invasion of the islands (which again Stannis performs superbly at, and receives little to no reward or acknowledgement). The last fault line that is formed here is that when the war is over Robert demands that the Greyjoys bend the knee and also demand a hostage--Balon Greyjoy's last remaining son: Theon, to be raised as a ward by Eddard Stark--with the understanding that if Balon ever rebels again, Theon's life is forfeit. This forms a grudge between the Starks and the Greyjoy family, as not only did the two elder sons died during the Rebellion, but the last son and heir is now a hostage/ward to the Starks. This act by Robert is an attempt to heal the breech between Ned and himself. Theon's elder sister Asha meanwhile comes to be treated by Balon as his heir with the lack of his three sons (two to death and Theon to hostage taking) to carry on the family tradition. Asha with glee takes up this role.

When Eddard comes home from putting down the Greyjoy rebellion, he brings Theon to Winterfell and comes home to find yet another Stark to have joined the pack waiting for him, another daughter named: Arya. Who looks just like his younger sister Lyanna.


Analysis

This is just a continuation of Westeros' overrall Third Turning and if anything plants all the seeds for the Crisis that is to come when Robert will eventually die. The biggest indication that they're still Third Turning is that despite a major change in the status quo (getting rid of the Targaryeon Dynasty) they still attempt to keep the old system that the Targaryeons put in place together. They do this literally by not replacing lords even if they rebel against them (Greyjoys) and metaphorically (keeping the "heir gets the title Prince and the castle of Dragonstone to call his own" tradition). This desire at once to simply only do away the the so-called "bad parts" of the old system without truly solving the problems and tensions that system held together is such a 3T action, I can hardly say much more. At once it pretends to be some kind of new order, but really it's the same old order with just a different face. Think of this period equivalent to the end of the Cold War or the end of WWI respectively, where a supposedly "new world order" was being put in place, while in fact it was just the old order with a face lift, ignoring the fault lines of the old order.

It's that attempt to keep the old system together despite the change in circumstances of who's sitting on the Iron Throne, which leads to the eventual Crisis.


Living Cast of Characters & their Archetype

* = New Additions

*Ser Willem Darry (b. ~220 AL) - Civic archetype


Jon Arryn (b. 225 AL) - Artist archetype
Hoster Tully (b. 235 AL) - Artist archetype


Brynden "the Blackfish" Tully (b. 240 AL) - Prophet archetype
Tywin Lannister (b. 244 AL) - Prophet archetype
*Balon "the Blessed" Greyjoy (b. ~250 AL) - Prophet archetype - he's approximately the appropriate age, and his call to return to the "Old Ways" which are seen by the Iron Islanders as a religious calling, marks him to me as the equivalent of a "Conservative Boomer" in this world

*Aeron "Damphair" Greyjoy (b. ~259 AL) Prophet/Nomad cusper archetype - the whole "turned my life around after I found religion" story is a typical Joneser one

Robert "the Usurper" Baratheon (b. 263 AL) - Nomad archetype
Eddard "the Quiet Wolf" Stark (b. 263 AL) - Nomad archetype
*Barbrey Dustin (b. ~263 AL) Nomad archetype
Catelyn Tully Stark (b. 264 AL) - Nomad archetype
*Stannis "" Baratheon (b. 265 AL) - Nomad archetype
Lysa Tully Arryn (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype
Jamie "Kingslayer" Lannister (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype
Cersei Lannister Baratheon (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype
*Petyr "Little Finger" Baelish (b. 268 AL) - Nomad archetype
Benjen "the Pup" Stark (b. ~270 AL) - Nomad archetype
*Rodrik Greyjoy (b. ~270 AL) - Nomad archetype (the drunken & fisticuffs kind)


*Willas Tyrell (b. ~273 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
*Edmure "the Floppy Fish" Tully (b. 273 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
*Maron Greyjoy (b. ~273 - 275 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype (the cruel kind)
*Tyrion "the Imp" Lannister (b. 274 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
*Viserys "the Beggar King" Targareyon (b. 275 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
*Asha Greyjoy (b. 276 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
*Garlan "the Gallant" Tyrell (b. 277 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
*Renly Baratheon (b. 278 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype


*Theon Greyjoy (b. 279 AL) - Early Civic archetype
*Loras Tyrell (b. 282 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Robb Stark (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Jon Snow (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype
*Margerey Tyrell (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype
*Danerys Targareyon (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype

*Sansa Stark (b. 286 AL) - Core Civic archetype

*Arya Stark (b. 289 AL) - Late Civic archetype

What continues to fascinate me about this series is just how negatively the Prophet archetype is portrayed in this story by the characters who just so happen to be (or likely are) Prophets. Which is ironic considering the author of this series is himself a Prophet archetype.

Also, I think you can divide the Civic generation in half now, between those who have memory of the Greyjoy Rebellion, and those who don't. So generally the dividing line comes somewhere between 285 - 287.

~Chas'88

Nice.

The Arryns also pride themselves as being the most pureblooded Andal aristocracy.

Fixed that for you.

It's also worth pointing out that Edmure hates bards because the guy (Tom) slept with the girl Edmure couldn't get it up for, and then made a song about it. A very famous one.

It's interesting how many failed Prophets there are, and how their disputes have completely distracted from the real issues Varys and the Night's Watch keep trying to bring to their attention. Art imitating life?

Well, come to think of it, with Varys it's not so interesting after all... Hmm, wonder if he has a real world equivalent...

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Nice.

Thanks.

Fixed that for you.

Typos, they happen. Also my mind thinks one thing, the fingers do another.

It's also worth pointing out that Edmure hates bards because the guy (Tom) slept with the girl Edmure couldn't get it up for, and then made a song about it. A very famous one.

True, but this is a summary.

It's interesting how many failed Prophets there are, and how their disputes have completely distracted from the real issues Varys and the Night's Watch keep trying to bring to their attention. Art imitating life?

Every time I come across a potential Prophet I have hope that they might show a better side... but nope each one that's appeared thus far seems to have stalled out somewhere along the line. The only one which seems shows potential to grow and change is probably the Blackfish at this point, but it's probably unlikely at this point.

Well, come to think of it, with Varys it's not so interesting after all... Hmm, wonder if he has a real world equivalent...

Yeah Varys might have the interest of the Realm on his mind, but if fan theories are to be believed it's HIGHLY motivated by a longstanding sense of self-interest and vengeance. I'll only say one name: Blackfyre.

~Chas'88

ETA: Also added a comparison to how WWI and the end of the Cold War also brought a similar change to that of the end of Robert's Rebellion--where it's a superficial sense of a "new order", aka the Old Order with a face lift.

Part Three of The Third Turning: Robert's Later Reign, The Long Summer, & the events of A Game of Thrones; Period of: 290 - 298

So if Part two was about planting the seeds for the problems that will eventually tear Westeros asunder, Part three is essentially the space of time it takes for those seeds to grow and strengthen, and the series of events which lead up to triggering the beginning of the Fourth Turning in Westeros. Essentially this is a dead space of time where nothing really of importance occurs and everyone simply seems to be living their lives. This time is most notable for being the "Long Summer" in which a decade's long summer takes place.

What really marks me about this period is the rise in decadence and debt which occurs over this period. When Eddard goes South in A Game of Thrones he can't help but notice the moral decay and depravity which seems to have taken a hold in the South. If Robert's Rebellion was much like the End of the Cold War, then the end of the Greyjoy Rebellion is much like the end of Desert Storm in our own history.

Having proved himself as defender of the Seven Kingdoms Robert begins the decades' long parties by holding a Tournament in Lannisport (an important trading city on the Western coast that belongs to the Lannister family), which had suffered greatly during the Greyjoy Rebellion. The Tournament being held there is to help re-generate trade and get the city back on its feet economically, as well as for the Knights of the recent war to show off their skills.

In fact that seems to be Robert's solution to everything from this point forward: hold a Tournament. It reminds me very much of George W. Bush's "go shopping" answer to 9/11 and the wild spend-beyond-your-means consumer culture of the late 90s and early 00s in general.

Robert's only other solution as King seems to be to thrown money at the problem and leave it to Jon Arryn to solve for him. In truth, he's not that great of a King. He's a great soldier, but once he has power he has no idea what to do with it. The treasury he'd inherited at the beginning of his reign was filled beyond capacity. Over the course of the next decade, Robert goes on a long spending spree, which the rest of the Kingdom ultimately emulates (with exception of Ned in the North, who keeps to the sensible track of saving up for Winter, knowing that it will return eventually, while the party goes on down South).

If you want your 1920s or late 90s/early 00s equivalent of a decadent spend thrift third turning culture, this is the period to look to.

And because of this spending spree that Robert goes on, a person who can "rub two coins together and produce a third" like Petyr Baelish can do through his "creative accounting" (think Enron style accounting) is quickly promoted by Jon Arryn to the position of Master of Coin, where he proceeds to somehow come up with surprisingly more amounts of money for the King to spend, and increase the debt of the Kingdom ever more so. Robert is like a junkie when it comes to spending money, and Petyr Baelish quickly becomes his willing supplier.

Now it's not like Robert always frivolously spends his money, sometimes he is quite generous to the smallfolk (think peasants) when solving their problems by not only "solving" their problems but also giving money to them in addition (a la Tax Cuts). Robert is considered a "merry monarch" by his people. As the party in the South continues, he loses his hard won physique to all the feasting and drinking. When Eddard meets his friend once again at the beginning of A Game of Thrones, he's quite taken aback at the obese and bearded man, who can hardly ascend steps without becoming red in the face and short of breath, that his friend has become due to constant indulgences of his pleasures since the end of the Greyjoy Rebellion.

Cersei gives birth to three children, all of them with her twin, Jaime, though they are thought to be Robert's: Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen.

Robert forces Stannis to marry a woman he doesn't like, Selyse Florent, who then gives him one child, a daughter named Shireen, who is afflicted with "greyscale" (a disease which slowly turns a person to stone--deadly in adults, but not as malignant in children, even stopping/going into remission). Renly and Loras Tyrell begin their love affair, and Loras begins feeding Renly's ego.

Sometime during this period, Tyrion Lannister meets a crofter's daughter named Tysha, marries her, and then is told by his father that she's really a whore and proceeds to have his son watch as she then has sex with a company of soldiers. This further sours the relationship between Tyrion and his father Tywin, and sends Tyrion on a binge of whoring and drinking.

Edmure Tully continues along with the spirit of the age to party hard, while his father Hoster frets about the future of his house if Edmure should prove like his brother Brynden and never marry. Brynden remains Knight of the Gate.

Jon Arryn is at his wits end from everything that's going on. He's trying to preserve a status quo that increasingly is harder and harder to maintain (the Artist archetype's story during a 3T), and grows increasingly stressed and overworked. Meanwhile his wife Lysa continues to have still birth after miscarriage, until at long last she gives birth to one sickly little boy, whom is named Robert after the King--though she calls him her "Sweetrobin", whom becomes her sole reason for living, after Petyr. Lysa also continues to associate with Petyr as he rises in ranks and the two of them begin to plot to find a way to "be together" without "the old man". Or at least that's what Lysa thinks.

Dorne and the Reach continue as per the last post, with the Martells of Dorne plotting to bring the Targaryeons back one day and avenge the deaths of Elia and her children that the Lannisters delivered. The Tyrells of the Reach grow up fully indulging themselves, Willas the heir becoming lame in one leg during one of these tournaments, against a Martell challenger--this further adds fuel to the fire between the Martells and Tyrells--traditional rivals, but surprisingly Willas and the Martell in question (Oberyn Martell, the younger brother of the ruler of Dorne) don't hold any grudges and in fact begin a pen pal relationship between one another over the incident, in fact sharing a common passion for breeding and discussing horses. In order to keep his chubby younger brother from getting stuck with an undeserved nickname (like his uncle "Garth the Gross"), Willas dubs his younger brother Garlan "the Gallant", which serves as an inspiration for the younger kid to strive to live up to as he grows up. The youngest Tyrell male sibling is Loras, who becomes a well-noted Knight and tournament winner, becoming known as the "Knight of the Flowers", and whom takes up a passionate love affair with Renly Baratheon (Lord of the Stormlands, another neighbor & the King's youngest brother) during this time.

Meanwhile in Essos, Willam Darry finally dies, and the servants plunder the Targaryeon children's household afterwards, prompting them to continue to go from city to city--on the run from assassins hired by Robert. Viserys becomes known as the "Beggar King" because of this. They eventually come to Pentos where Illyrio the Magistar of the city takes them in to his palace and helps Viserys to plot a marriage between Daenerys and Khal Drogo the leader of the Mongol-like horse people called the Dothraki. It's a marriage between a fourteen year old and a thirty year old and has all the overtones of Margaret Beaufort's marriage to Owen Tudor.

The Greyjoys meanwhile plot to eventually rebuild and revolt again, believing that Theon if he even does live, will be too much a "greenlander" to properly succeed Balon. Asha is given more support from Balon as his "heir" though her other Uncles do not recognize this.

That should cover all the high noble families from the South during this period.

Eddard and Catelyn meanwhile through all of this haven't been slouching around. Eddard takes his role as Lord of the North seriously, and oversees preparations of storing food for the likely Long Winter to come, and frets about the rumors he hears of the Wildlings beyond the Wall (a la Hadrian's Wall) gathering together around a "King-beyond-the-Wall" known as Mance Ryder. Where Robert is the grasshopper indulging himself, Eddard is the diligent Ant of self-denial and duty in his own Nomad way. He and Catelyn continue to add to their ever expanding brood of kids as well with two more sons: Brandon and Rickon. In fact early on in A Game of Thrones they're still seeking to expand the brood as we get an after-glow-of-sex scene as Catelyn's second point of view chapter. Eddard does make the mistake of raising Theon too much like a brother to his other children, which causes tension between Robb and Jon. Theon considers Robb his equal and hangs out with him and Benfred Tallhart (a nearby minor lord's son sworn to the Starks), while decidedly snubbing Jon Snow--and causing some friction to occur between Robb and Jon--who before this were thick as thieves (to Catelyn's horror), as Robb is torn between his brother and the hero-worship/friend he has in Theon.


What sets the motions of A Game of Thrones in play are two inciting incidents: the continued disappearance of ranging units from the Night's Watch (a celibate military order to guard the Wall in the North) which are sent out to try and find where all the Wildlings (people who live beyond the Wall) are disappearing to. The other occurs in the South with the mysterious "sudden" death of Jon Arryn. These two events themselves do not spark the Fourth Turning in Westeros, but they serve as pre-catalyst catalysts which will in turn lead to the Catalyst of the Fourth Turning and make it inevitable for the Third Turning to continue.

Eddard is given a choice in the beginning of A Game of Thrones, to either go North and help the severely depleted Night's Watch (an order which his Stark ancestors founded 8,000 years prior), or he can go South, accept Robert's offer to become Hand of the King and discover why Jon Arryn, who was a second father to him, truly died--as Lysa has written to Catelyn whispering lies in her ear that it was Queen Cersei who poisoned Jon Arryn. Eddard chooses to go South with his two daughters, and accept a betrothal between his eldest daughter Sansa and Robert's eldest "son" Joffrey. As Eddard leaves Winterfell, Catelyn (bereaved over the fall of her son Bran being pushed from a tower when he caught Jaime and Cersei having sex) essentially drives Jon Snow (Eddard's supposed bastard son) out of the house, and Jon Snow rides North to join the Night's Watch.

I won't bother to continue summing up the events of the rest of the novel. Suffice it to say, Eddard plays Clue: King's Landing , finding help oddly enough from Varys, the Master of Whisperers who recognizes that Eddard is too honorable a person with concerns to thinking of the good of the Realm (like Varys, only Varys is willing to get his hands dirty), to be an effective Hand. As he does so, Catelyn sets out to find out if Bran was pushed or not (as a subsequent assassination attempt was sent later), turning to Petyr for help in identifying the dagger. Petyr chooses to fan the flames of distrust between the Lannisters and the Starks further. This prompts Catelyn on her way home to abduct Tyrion Lannister, which starts an invasion/scouring of the Riverlands in response. In the capital, Eddard meanwhile comes to discover that Jon Arryn was poisoned while simultaneously discovering the truth about Cersei's and Jaime's incestual relationship. Cersei then has Robert's wine drugged before he goes on a hunt in the Kingswood--during which a boar gores Robert, and he's brought back to King's Landing and dies not long after.


Analysis

This period is very much a "Roaring 20s" and "Naughty Oughties" for Westeros. It is the death of Robert, which ultimately is the catalyst for the Fourth Turning in Westeros. The difference between how the North and the South use this period and react generally reflect how during the Roaring 20s and Naughty Oughties the "frontiers" generally suffered or were more constrained than the "cities" or populated areas. As it's sometimes referred to in our own history "for Farmer's the Great Depression began early". The North never really recovers from Robert's Rebellion as they lost the most troops of everyone and the most morale as the Starks suffered the hardest of anyone. So the North, already the lowest settled region, is much more depopulated than the South after Robert's Rebellion. Robert even makes mention of this by asked Eddard where all his people are when visiting the North. So despite them being in a 3T, the North is not doing as well as the rest of the nation. But then again that divide between the "doing well" and "not doing so well" is a common thing to 3Ts. Farmers yet again suffered in our own 3T--so much so they began selling land to prop up the Housing bubble's need of constant cul-de-sacs of homes popping up everywhere.

Everything before Robert's death was merely the intensification of previous problems, and had Robert not died they could have been solved/delayed in their own ways and kept to minor kertuffles--even the whole scouring of the Riverlands could have been "solved" in a 3T manner--though unlikely to anyone's satisfaction. In this sense, Robert is metaphorically the spirit of the Third Turning of Westeros, and with him dies the Third Turning.


Living Cast of Characters & their Archetype at the End of the Third Turning

* = New Additions


Hoster Tully (b. 235 AL) - Artist archetype


Brynden "the Blackfish" Tully (b. 240 AL) - Prophet archetype
Tywin Lannister (b. 244 AL) - Prophet archetype
Balon "the Blessed" Greyjoy (b. ~250 AL) - Prophet archetype

*Oberyn Martell (b. 258 AL) Prophet/Nomad cusper archetype
Aeron "Damphair" Greyjoy (b. ~259 AL) Prophet/Nomad cusper archetype

Eddard "the Quiet Wolf" Stark (b. 263 AL) - Nomad archetype
Barbrey Dustin (b. ~263 AL) Nomad archetype
Catelyn Tully Stark (b. 264 AL) - Nomad archetype
Stannis Baratheon (b. 265 AL) - Nomad archetype
Lysa Tully Arryn (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype
Jamie "Kingslayer" Lannister (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype
Cersei Lannister Baratheon (b. 266 AL) - Nomad archetype
Petyr "Little Finger" Baelish (b. 268 AL) - Nomad archetype
*Khal Drogo (b. ~268 AL) - Nomad archetype
Benjen "the Pup" Stark (b. ~270 AL) - Nomad archetype


Willas Tyrell (b. ~273 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
Edmure "the Floppy Fish" Tully (b. 273 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
Tyrion "the Imp" Lannister (b. 274 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
Viserys "the Beggar King" Targareyon (b. 275 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
Asha Greyjoy (b. 276 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
Garlan "the Gallant" Tyrell (b. 277 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype
Renly Baratheon (b. 278 AL) - Nomad/Civic cusper archetype


Theon Greyjoy (b. 279 AL) - Early Civic archetype
*Benfred Tallhart (b. 280 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Loras Tyrell (b. 282 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Robb Stark (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Jon "the Bastard of Winterfell" Snow (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Margerey Tyrell (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype
Danerys Targareyon (b. 283 AL) - Early Civic archetype

*Joffrey Baratheon (b. 286 AL) - Core Civic archetype
Sansa Stark (b. 286 AL) - Core Civic archetype

Arya Stark (b. 289 AL) - Late Civic archetype
*Shireen Baratheon (b. 289 AL) - Late Civic archetype
*Myrcella Baratheon (b. 290 AL) - Late Civic archetype
*Bran Stark (b. 291 AL) - Late Civic archetype
*Tommen Baratheon (b. 291 AL) - Late Civic archetype
*Robert "Sweetrobin" Arryn (b. 292 AL) - Late Civic archetype


*Rickon Stark (b. 295 AL) - Civic/Artist cusper archetype

~Chas'88

A video compilation of Lady Olenna Tyrell's scenes from GOT. She's a perfect example of an Artist archetype lady in elderhood.

I found the preparation for my colonoscopy more fun than either the books or the television series.

And the endings for Blake's 7 and the new Battlestar Galactica were more upbeat.