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Thread: Is Oil the Great Issue of Our Current Saeculum? - Page 4







Post#76 at 01-03-2016 06:47 PM by naf140230 [at joined Dec 2015 #posts 199]
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Quote Originally Posted by MK'94 View Post
It seems to me that each prior 4T involved an overthrowing of the institution that dominated the ending Saeculum. For example, the American Revolution overthrew the dominant institution of absolute British rule over the thirteen colonies in favor of a free, self-governing society, based upon agriculture and slavery. The Civil War then overthrew the instructions of slavery and agricultural economic dominance in favor of industrialization and wage labor. The New Deal and our entry into World War II overthrew the institution of total laissez-faire industrial policy and isolationism in favor government safety nets and military interventionism, both enabled by an oil-driven consumer economy. If I had to guess, I'd say that out current 4T will see the overthrow of the institution of oil-reliance and American imperialism. What will replace these institutions still remains to be seen. My reasoning is that oil is the primary factor that enabled America's meteoric rise during the 20th century, and is the primary factor behind every US recession since the 1970s. The oil shocks of previous decades always led to recessions. Since 2002, however, oil's price has quadrupled for the simple reason that total world oil production is reaching a peak. This is the true reason why America's economy has performed so poorly since 2000. Only by abandoning oil can we hope to save our economy, our public finances, our national security, and the health of the environment. Oil will likely be our downfall if we do not act fast enough to replace it. Open to thoughts...
Here is an article from www.stratfor.com that might help your argument.

The Geopolitical Impact of Consumer Electronics

Analysis

An estimated 175,000 people will gather in Las Vegas from Jan. 6-9 for the annual International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the premier conference of the consumer electronics industry. Some of the world's largest firms use the show to debut and feature new products and to showcase experimental and conceptual projects they are working on.
While Stratfor typically doesn't track the latest iPhone model, the most dazzling 4K Ultra HD television or the highest resolution camera, the implications of the products themselves — and the innovative research behind them — can fundamentally change how countries interact with their citizens and with one another.

Then and Now

Consumer electronics have only existed for about 100 years — since the advent of radio communications receivers — but their impact on geopolitics cannot be overstated. Personal computers, cellphones and countless other products have revolutionized human life. Technological progress during the last century might equal that of the previous 1,000 or even 10,000 years, and consumer electronics have emerged as a major force behind that rapid advancement. Moreover, the pace of development is accelerating, and technologies that were unrelated 10 years ago — such as washing machines and the Internet — are now converging. This union of inertia and integration is a cornerstone of technological progress.
At the 2006 CES, everyone was looking at the latest flip phones, portable MP3 players, GPS-enabled navigation systems, e-readers and personal media players. The iPhone — which Apple introduced in 2007 — can perform the functions of all of those devices combined. Five years ago, tablets began emerging as smartphones kept getting larger and laptops and netbooks continued getting smaller. Last year, Microsoft released a combination of a tablet and a laptop called the Surface Book.
This year's CES will feature breathtaking curved 4K television sets alongside the debuts of other exciting projects. Google and Ford have already announced a joint venture in which Ford will build autonomous vehicles expanding on Google's research in the field. Unmanned aerial systems — drones — will be another centerpiece, with some models using hydrogen fuel cells to extend their ranges. Additive manufacturing, nanotech-based electronics, robotics, artificial intelligence and machine-learning technologies are all likely to be on display as well.

Although the products themselves have the ability to alter the world, it is the research involved in developing them that is truly groundbreaking. Historically, most research in the electronics industry grew out of government-led, public-private initiatives which involved the military more often than not. These days, consumer and industry demands are the leading force in the development of new technology. The demand for faster, more powerful and longer-lasting smartphones, tablets and laptops is driving research into new battery technology, investments into keeping up with Moore's Law and most other research in the field.

The increasing demand for smart devices, the rise of smart grids and the convergence of these devices and the Internet — the so-called Internet of Things — will shape the way that machines communicate with each other and the way entire electric grids are designed.

Battery Technology

2016 marks the 25th anniversary of Sony's commercialization of the rechargeable lithium-ion battery. The battery has matured alongside the digital revolution, powering cellphones, laptops and almost every other device that needs a rechargeable battery. This has forced battery producers to invest in lithium-ion batteries to make them safer, smaller and capable of storing more energy. Though the humble battery has been slow to develop, its most profound geopolitical impact may be yet to come.

Tesla in the United States, LG Chem in South Korea and BYD in China are all building gigafactories to mass produce lithium-ion batteries for electric cars. This means that the specific technology that was pioneered, commercialized and then improved upon because of demands from the consumer electronics industry could strike a critical blow to oil's monopoly as a transportation fuel. Ironically, it was Exxon that developed rechargeable lithium batteries in the 1970s, though they were never economical and were not lithium-ion.
Though lithium-ion batteries are not the only energy storage technology in development, they will dominate the small battery market for at least the next decade. This includes batteries used in electric vehicles, which are considered consumer electronics themselves.

Processing Power

Consumer electronics have long driven advances in computing and processing power. True, much of the initial research and development of computers during the 1950s and early 1960s was funded by selling technology to the military. But since then the consumer electronics market has largely driven research, creating breakthroughs in the field.
The geopolitical, economic and military benefits of improvements in computing power are well documented: Heavily specialized supercomputers provide the foundation for research-intensive industries such as the health care sector, the oil and gas industry and defense. Increases in computing power resulted in smaller, more powerful computer chips, in turn enabling the digital revolution of the last five decades. And these advances are continuing unabated.
Now that consumer electronics have become the major force behind developments in processing power, maintaining Moore's Law has become all the more important for chipmakers. As the personal computer market matured and consumer interest in laptops grew, promoting innovation in that field remained paramount. Now that the market has shifted toward smartphones and tablets, consumer demand for these gadgets will eventually taper off, raising the question of what, if anything, will take their place as the impetus for innovation.
Perhaps this year's CES will offer a glimpse of some potential catalysts. Improvements in artificial intelligence, whether for robots or computers, require upgrades in computing power and algorithm complexity. Machine-learning algorithms and different means of direct human-machine interaction are expected to be among the major themes at CES this year. Of course, the next breakthrough in the field might be something different altogether. It could be the automation of vehicles, or some sort of virtual reality devices that turn everything we have now into high-definition lifelike projections. The possibilities are vast.
Conversely, it could be that the next growth engine for electronics does not require increased computing power. As machine-to-machine communication and the Internet of Things become more common, the proliferation of smart objects may not justify the expense of maintaining Moore's Law. If consumer demand slows down, that could be geopolitically significant too — especially if the acceleration of digital innovation seen in the last 50 years slows with it.

Geopolitics and Electronics

Consumer electronics is now one of the biggest markets in the world. Though U.S. companies were early pioneers in the field, the Japanese soon caught up and by the 1980s rivaled the expertise of their U.S. counterparts. Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea followed soon after. Each of these countries used consumer electronics as a springboard to move from low-end manufacturing into middle and high-end manufacturing. While these countries were often aided by foreign companies bringing in business operations to take advantage of low labor costs, they eventually developed their own indigenous capabilities.
This process is currently taking place in China. As of now, most of China's electronics industry is either foreign-led or is licensing foreign technology. But Beijing's priority is to foster a domestic capability in the industry and to eventually be able to compete with foreign electronics sectors. BYD, Xiaomi, Alibaba, Huawei, and Baidu are among the Chinese companies already making their mark on the global electronics scene. Over the coming years, China's showing at electronics expos, including CES, will indicate its companies' progress compared to the established industry giants in the United States, South Korea and Japan.
We cannot discount the possibility that consumer electronics will continue integrating into the heart of the global economic system. This means that companies such as Google, Facebook or even Baidu could become the most geopolitically important businesses going forward. This would not be unprecedented. For example, the East India Company factored heavily into geopolitics from the 17th century through the 19th century. The same is true of tobacco companies, which either contributed to or defined their countries' geopolitical ambitions. Eventually, railroad companies in large countries such as the United States rose to become dominant regional forces.
Since Standard Oil's emergence more than 100 years ago, oil companies have arguably been the most geopolitically important firms. Perhaps now that oil's dominance in the global economy is beginning to ebb, technology companies will take the place of today's energy giants. Regardless, the long-term developments and cumulative changes the consumer electronics sector brings about are as geopolitically important as innovations in any other part of the economy.
Last edited by naf140230; 01-03-2016 at 06:51 PM.







Post#77 at 01-04-2016 06:36 AM by marypoza [at joined Jun 2015 #posts 374]
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We can drive electric cars. Or water fueled cars. Or biodiesel cars. We can heat & run our homes on natural gas, solar, wind. The majority of oil imported into this country goes to make cheap plastic goods. Until we figure out another way to make cheap plastic goods we will be an oil dependent nation.

Ps, hemp can be used to make plastic, altho I don't know how cheaply. I do know that the more you use & improve on a technology the cheaper it becomes. This, imho, is a major reason to relegalize weed, along with the tax revenue. The country's largest cash crop ain't even being taxed







Post#78 at 01-04-2016 04:50 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by marypoza View Post
We can drive electric cars. Or water fueled cars. Or biodiesel cars. We can heat & run our homes on natural gas, solar, wind. The majority of oil imported into this country goes to make cheap plastic goods. Until we figure out another way to make cheap plastic goods we will be an oil dependent nation.

Ps, hemp can be used to make plastic, altho I don't know how cheaply. I do know that the more you use & improve on a technology the cheaper it becomes. This, imho, is a major reason to relegalize weed, along with the tax revenue. The country's largest cash crop ain't even being taxed
Use of petroleum and NG to produce plastic is a best-use of the material. I doubt we use as much of the stuff in a year of plasticizing as we do daily as fuel.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#79 at 01-09-2016 08:50 PM by Dboy [at joined Aug 2013 #posts 43]
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Quote Originally Posted by marypoza View Post
The country's largest cash crop ain't even being taxed
Who cares that it's not being taxed? D.C. isn't capable of managing the money they already steal, much less any new money they potentially could steal.
1966|Gen-X|INTJ







Post#80 at 01-09-2016 09:33 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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People who call taxation theft deserve nothing but mockery.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#81 at 01-10-2016 09:01 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
People who call taxation theft deserve nothing but mockery.
Often, these are the same people who seem total comfortable receiving public benefits. Look at Ammon Bundy with his whine about government stealing the land in the west, yet his father takes the product of the land without paying, and he funded his own business with a small business loan from the SBA. It's not very different from religious belief, where belief = fact! It's unassailable.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#82 at 02-04-2016 05:35 PM by naf140230 [at joined Dec 2015 #posts 199]
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Quote Originally Posted by MK'94 View Post
It seems to me that each prior 4T involved an overthrowing of the institution that dominated the ending Saeculum. For example, the American Revolution overthrew the dominant institution of absolute British rule over the thirteen colonies in favor of a free, self-governing society, based upon agriculture and slavery. The Civil War then overthrew the instructions of slavery and agricultural economic dominance in favor of industrialization and wage labor. The New Deal and our entry into World War II overthrew the institution of total laissez-faire industrial policy and isolationism in favor government safety nets and military interventionism, both enabled by an oil-driven consumer economy. If I had to guess, I'd say that out current 4T will see the overthrow of the institution of oil-reliance and American imperialism. What will replace these institutions still remains to be seen. My reasoning is that oil is the primary factor that enabled America's meteoric rise during the 20th century, and is the primary factor behind every US recession since the 1970s. The oil shocks of previous decades always led to recessions. Since 2002, however, oil's price has quadrupled for the simple reason that total world oil production is reaching a peak. This is the true reason why America's economy has performed so poorly since 2000. Only by abandoning oil can we hope to save our economy, our public finances, our national security, and the health of the environment. Oil will likely be our downfall if we do not act fast enough to replace it. Open to thoughts...
I just thought of this. Here is a list of the dominant issues in each Saeculum:

Late Medieval Saeculum - Stability
Tudor Saeculum - The Role of the Catholic Church
New World Saeculum - The Role of the Monarch
Revolutionary Saeculum - The Role of Britain in America
Civil War Saeculum - Slavery
Great Power Saeculum - The Role of Big Business
Millennial Saeculum - Unknown, but oil might be the main issue.







Post#83 at 02-04-2016 06:26 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by naf140230 View Post
I just thought of this. Here is a list of the dominant issues in each Saeculum:

Late Medieval Saeculum - Stability
Tudor Saeculum - The Role of the Catholic Church
New World Saeculum - The Role of the Monarch
Revolutionary Saeculum - The Role of Britain in America
Civil War Saeculum - Slavery
Great Power Saeculum - The Role of Big Business
Millennial Saeculum - Unknown, but oil might be the main issue.
The declining price of oil and several other commodities is proving to be an issue for some. That behavior is hinting at something at a more macro level - persistent multi-generational deflation. It is unknown territory for Western Civilization, at least it has been for the past 1000 or so years.







Post#84 at 02-05-2016 09:36 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
The declining price of oil and several other commodities is proving to be an issue for some. That behavior is hinting at something at a more macro level - persistent multi-generational deflation. It is unknown territory for Western Civilization, at least it has been for the past 1000 or so years.
When we crossed the boundary between the supply limited and demand limited economic models, the rules changed. Only now that this is becoming obvious to everyone is it finally getting recognized as a paradigm change. Of course, the people who benefit the most from the new paradigm hope the beneficiaries of the older one don't notice the change. That's much of the reason for the agitation from the white working class to "take our country back". I guess we could do that if we go the Luddite route, but I see that as so unlikely that it's a waste of time to even discuss it.

There can't be a continuation of the old model and we don't' know how to operate inside the new one ... not yet anyway. Add the AGW issue to the mix, and the need for political action becomes obvious. On the right, the solution is hands-off and let the doers get it done - let freedom ring. The answer from the left is more proactive and constrictive, with higher taxes and more top-down management of the economy and environment. No wonder the right wins the hearts and minds. They offer gain without pain. Never mind that it's never worked in the past and shows no signs that it will work in the future either.

So commodities are certainly important, but scarcity seems to a thing of the past. The only items that may be at issue are food and water ... but not for a while yet.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#85 at 02-05-2016 03:16 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
The declining price of oil and several other commodities is proving to be an issue for some. That behavior is hinting at something at a more macro level - persistent multi-generational deflation. It is unknown territory for Western Civilization, at least it has been for the past 1000 or so years.
I don't think you can generalize from the price of a commodity that will soon no longer be needed, to other commodities that could become more and more scarce, as population continues to rise for a few decades more and resources are stressed because of climate change and depletion.

Kepi used to claim here that population decrease could cause economic decline. It's possible, but I think we need to learn to live on the planet with a sustainable population level. Otherwise we crash. So the choice from the mid-21st century on would seem to be crash vs. decline and adjustment.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#86 at 02-06-2016 12:25 AM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I don't think you can generalize from the price of a commodity that will soon no longer be needed, to other commodities that could become more and more scarce, as population continues to rise for a few decades more and resources are stressed because of climate change and depletion.

Kepi used to claim here that population decrease could cause economic decline. It's possible, but I think we need to learn to live on the planet with a sustainable population level. Otherwise we crash. So the choice from the mid-21st century on would seem to be crash vs. decline and adjustment.
It's not just oil Eric, almost every commodity is getting hammered. Demand is crashing. The markets are prefiguring negative population growth and perhaps a major step down in population due to war / disease / zero incentive for having kids.







Post#87 at 02-06-2016 03:08 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
It's not just oil Eric, almost every commodity is getting hammered. Demand is crashing. The markets are prefiguring negative population growth and perhaps a major step down in population due to war / disease / zero incentive for having kids.
That's not what I'm hearing. Oil prices and China are rattling the markets; nothing else.

Oil is just a commodity that is on the way out anyway. Who cares what the price is?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#88 at 02-06-2016 03:46 PM by Copperfield [at joined Feb 2010 #posts 2,244]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
That's not what I'm hearing. Oil prices and China are rattling the markets; nothing else.

Oil is just a commodity that is on the way out anyway. Who cares what the price is?
Really? What are you hearing?

You do realize you can actually look up current and historical commodity prices right?

2015 was the worst year for commodities since 2008. 2016 hasn't been any better.







Post#89 at 02-06-2016 05:08 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
It's not just oil Eric, almost every commodity is getting hammered. Demand is crashing. The markets are prefiguring negative population growth and perhaps a major step down in population due to war / disease / zero incentive for having kids.
It looks like prices are down to about 2005 levels on the whole. I don't see how markets could be figuring in a population decline. That's long in the future. Markets don't think in those terms. Maybe they are afraid of wars. Lower prices might be good for the consumer, so I would expect prices to rise again given the inevitable rise in demand in our times.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#90 at 02-07-2016 07:02 AM by marypoza [at joined Jun 2015 #posts 374]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
The declining price of oil and several other commodities is proving to be an issue for some. That behavior is hinting at something at a more macro level - persistent multi-generational deflation. It is unknown territory for Western Civilization, at least it has been for the past 1000 or so years.
-- try 1500 yrs. I once heard the Dark Ages ( c 500-1000 AD) described as a depression that lasted 500 yrs

It's possible ppl don't want to live on plastic any more, not after 2008. They won't buy it if they can't afford it & really don't need it (which is generally the case) which means that consumerism is down, & may be down for a long time unless wages go up & ppl can afford to be consumers again
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