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Thread: Visions of America's Future - Page 3







Post#51 at 01-10-2015 02:43 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
I'm not sure what your basis is for claiming Cycle 25 will be as you have described. People I know with knowledge in this area do not seem to think Cycle 25 will be any better than 24 and may even be weaker.
The sunspot cycle coincides with Jupiter's orbit, and that's probably no accident since the biggest planet may have a cyclic effect on the Sun.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#52 at 01-11-2015 12:00 AM by Vandal-72 [at Idaho joined Jul 2012 #posts 1,101]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
The sunspot cycle coincides with Jupiter's orbit, and that's probably no accident since the biggest planet may have a cyclic effect on the Sun.
All the evidence points to it just being a coincidence. Sun spots are a magnetic phenomena and not a gravitational one.







Post#53 at 01-12-2015 05:12 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Del Tachi View Post
What does the next saeculum look like?

Honestly, I just don't see how the current crisis is going to serve as a catalyst for some great socialist movement in the United States like people like Eric and MK'94 seem to think.

The Millennials are interested in building a ruthlessly efficient, technologically-savvy society and there's a strong element of neoliberalism and corporatism that runs parallel to that vision. The future is going to look like the inside of an Apple store. Positively, there's a strong element of egalitarianism and social justice that the Millennials have incorporated into their vision of the future but it would be a stretch to call it something that's going to represent a dramatic departure from the standard White liberal way of thinking that is already prevalent in this country. The Millennials are going to be a dystopia of sorts; it will look tolerant and socially conscious on the outside, but will actually be radically opposed to traditional religious conservatism and minority interests.
Fully agreed! And by the way I don't want to agree....
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#54 at 01-12-2015 05:17 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Kepi View Post
You've got some really good points here, so I'm going to jump off from this platform if you don't mind. One thing you missed here is that Millennials want guarantees. No fine print, no exceptions, guarantees. While I don't think you'll see European style tax and spend on social services style socialism, I do think certain things (healthcare being one, infrastructure being another, and possibly needs like housing). GIs wanted a safety net, Millennials don't want to have to walk a right rope at all.

Now given the amount of new guarantees, I do think you're right that anyone asking for anything more will be told to go away in a rather impolite fashion. When it comes to religion, I do expect to see mainline Christianity to make a really big comeback. It might just be Pope Francis, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's another Billy Graham equivalent who steeps his feet in both the hot ash of the 4T and the ocean at high tide if the 2T.

One of the things I was thinking about recently was why there always seems to bee this nonreligiously connected spiritualism that crops up in the 2T that can't survive the 4T. The conclusion that I came to was that spirituality dies in times of strong certainty. Who has use for a fortune teller when you can see that tomorrow will bring more of the same. Whether it's joy or misery, the certainty that tomorrow will come and be connected entirely to the outcome of today kills the need for intense spirituality. Meanwhile the balm for the chafing irritation of certainty is tradition, strangely. The comfort that cones with knowing that whatever misery today brings, you know that you are one more in the grand infinite tradition of others doing exactly that.

So I kinda expect to see some of your more liberal, less naggy and shrill forms of Christianity to become much more relevant. Presbyterian, Methodist, and liberal Catholic churches would be my overall guess for churches that get big. Maybe some liberal Quaker churches for those that do want a bit more spiritualism mixed in with a comfortable tradition. But yeah, I think being "spiritual but not religious" will go the way of the hyper color shirt in the next 10 years.

Now that said, I expect that a Millennials will demand to keep their secular public life. I think that's where the religious conservatives will get their orders to pound sand. Anything that reminds Millennials of their parents unbridled, unrestrained emotional bickering? Gone. Already quashed.

In the same way, I expect that minority rights won't expand, but I don't expect them to recede either. Basically, it's that wonderful time where it's time for culture to take a nap so we can regroup, rebuild, and relax for a while.
Rob Bell and all the young folks who follow his view will usher in the grassroots and neo progressive and seeker friendly branch of Christianity.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#55 at 01-13-2015 12:49 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by millennialX View Post
Fully agreed! And by the way I don't want to agree....
I'm not sure who MK'94 is, but I never said the current crisis is going to serve as a catalyst for a "great socialist movement." It should bring victory for the current and decades-old progressive program and outlook though, if all goes as I predict. No guarantees on that, however.

If the millies make America into an apple store though, that's not different from what GIs/Greatest Gen made America into.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#56 at 01-13-2015 06:04 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
I'm not sure who MK'94 is, but I never said the current crisis is going to serve as a catalyst for a "great socialist movement." It should bring victory for the current and decades-old progressive program and outlook though, if all goes as I predict. No guarantees on that, however.

If the millies make America into an apple store though, that's not different from what GIs/Greatest Gen made America into.
Very, true.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#57 at 03-04-2015 06:44 AM by kclaytor [at joined Jan 2013 #posts 12]
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I certainly haven't read all the posts here, so perhaps there are some more radical, but of what I have read I have thought they were far from the radical change that I think is coming because of just what you wrote here and potential problems with water supplies and farm land.

My visions include much more smallness and breaking the big into small. Without so much oil, urbanization becomes a much less feasible idea. With that smallness, there will be more individual power though, voting in a much smaller pool, and hopefully on issues, not representatives. If you look at the Occupy movement which ran itself with participatory democracy, and Anonymous with its leaderlessness, and if you look at foreign movements like the Zaptistas, the Indignants in Spain and the Kurds, there are droplets of the new way showing up here and there. Libya also ran itself with participatory democracy before we dropped bombs on them.

I also think that many people are aware of the problems with money and the very fragile economies caused by creating all money as debt and using fractional reserve banking, always creating the principal when the loan papers are signed, but never creating the interest so that the monetary system actually causes artificial scarcity since some loans are guaranteed to fail with this method. So, I think when resource-wise things fall apart, people will also switch to other ways to handle trade. There will still be money, but it will not be created as debt anymore.

I think there is really a perfect storm coming that will cause us to radically change our ways.


Quote Originally Posted by jeil View Post
A.L. Tchijevsky developed an Index of Mass Human Excitability by identifying in history the timing of such events as wars, revolutions, riots, expeditions, and migrations. He concluded that these events correlated with peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle. We are just past the peak of sunspot cycle #24; this cycle was unusually weak. The next cycle, #25 should reach its peak in mid to late 2024, and could be a much more exciting cycle with the peak being more than twice as high as #24.

It is interesting to me that what Tchijevsky identifies as a more likely time for exaggerated mass human excitability coincides with the suggest timing for the violent period of the current Fourth Turning crisis period.

One highly important undercurrent at this time is the compound growth in the amount of energy expended to acquire more energy. This is occurring because we always pick the low hanging fruit first, leaving the rest for later. Each unit of energy acquired has a fixed amount of energy. When we must expend more energy to acquire that unit, less energy is available to drive economic output. In the past we have produced energy faster to compensate for the increased expenditure in the acquisition process. Obviously we can't rationally expend more energy than we acquire in the process, plus we are approaching geological , and physical limits on total production.

Here is one study that indicates that for oil, around 2030 we will reach the point where it takes more energy to acquire new oil deposits than is in the deposits acquired. The effect of this will destroy all industrial economies that are heavily dependent on oil, and we won't need to wait till 2030 for the ramifications on our society to be felt; no other energy source could possibly adequately substitute for the abrupt end of the oil age.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

Pay particular attention to this graph attached to this report:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_020.htm

Not only will we likely see financial, economic, and social collapse, but governments everywhere could be swept away by the combined effect of the rapidly contracting industrial age for want of sufficient energy to fuel it, the cyclical end of the Fourth Turning crisis period, and the exciting effect of high sunspot activity around 2024.







Post#58 at 03-04-2015 11:56 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Radical movements will gather steam in the 2020s. The participatory, small is beautiful approach probably will move forward in the next Awakening, rather than the current Crisis. Right now, more rather than less central government may be the trend in dealing with the 4T, once the Republican wall of resistance tumbles and the 2020s get rolling. That's the usual way things go; more collective action in 4Ts, and more small-group action and/or individual liberation in 2Ts.

I don't know what you mean about Libya though, or the effect of the bombs on the approach of the Libyans. Right now, it's clear that the jihadist approach needs to fade or be defeated before the Occupy/Indignant approach of the Arab Spring can lead the way in the Middle East.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#59 at 03-07-2015 12:33 PM by Brian Beecher [at Downers Grove, IL joined Sep 2001 #posts 2,937]
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Quote Originally Posted by kclaytor View Post
I certainly haven't read all the posts here, so perhaps there are some more radical, but of what I have read I have thought they were far from the radical change that I think is coming because of just what you wrote here and potential problems with water supplies and farm land.

My visions include much more smallness and breaking the big into small. Without so much oil, urbanization becomes a much less feasible idea. With that smallness, there will be more individual power though, voting in a much smaller pool, and hopefully on issues, not representatives. If you look at the Occupy movement which ran itself with participatory democracy, and Anonymous with its leaderlessness, and if you look at foreign movements like the Zaptistas, the Indignants in Spain and the Kurds, there are droplets of the new way showing up here and there. Libya also ran itself with participatory democracy before we dropped bombs on them.

I also think that many people are aware of the problems with money and the very fragile economies caused by creating all money as debt and using fractional reserve banking, always creating the principal when the loan papers are signed, but never creating the interest so that the monetary system actually causes artificial scarcity since some loans are guaranteed to fail with this method. So, I think when resource-wise things fall apart, people will also switch to other ways to handle trade. There will still be money, but it will not be created as debt anymore.

I think there is really a perfect storm coming that will cause us to radically change our ways.
One small nit with this: If there is a shortage of oil urbanization actually become MORE feasible; it is the suburbanization that followed WWII that rapidly increased our dependency although it took three decades for it to catch up with us. You may be correct about a perfect storm, but the name of the game right now seems to be to prolong the denial for as long as possible.







Post#60 at 10-31-2015 02:57 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Del Tachi View Post
What does the next saeculum look like?

Honestly, I just don't see how the current crisis is going to serve as a catalyst for some great socialist movement in the United States like people like Eric and MK'94 seem to think.

The Millennials are interested in building a ruthlessly efficient, technologically-savvy society and there's a strong element of neoliberalism and corporatism that runs parallel to that vision. The future is going to look like the inside of an Apple store. Positively, there's a strong element of egalitarianism and social justice that the Millennials have incorporated into their vision of the future but it would be a stretch to call it something that's going to represent a dramatic departure from the standard White liberal way of thinking that is already prevalent in this country. The Millennials are going to be a dystopia of sorts; it will look tolerant and socially conscious on the outside, but will actually be radically opposed to traditional religious conservatism and minority interests.
1950s with higher technology, but with most of the problems glossed over then resolved since then -- often long since then.

We will have gone from the "every man for himself, the Devil take the hindmost" ethos of the recent 3T through a Crisis that forces us to recognize that we are all in it together.

We could end up with either a very right-wing consensus, a plutocratic oligarchy in which taxes and prices are high on the worker who has duties without economic security, but elites get what they want with certainty. That is the sort of High that Spain had in the 1950s. America would be a nice place to visit on a holiday, and maybe people from rich countries might come back with fortunate spouses who get to see America at its best -- on a low-cost vacation from a country that has greater equality of income. It would be a poor place to live unless one is filthy rich. But that could be a very stable resolution, a resolution that could last sixty years or so before the Crisis of 2100 (the physical calamity of Global Warming as the Greenland Ice Cap melts away and crop belts shift because the snowy winters come to an end). That would be an unpleasant, stultifying High. America could be the sort of place described in a warning about visiting certain very poor countries: "Sadness will follow you everywhere". It would be much like the sort of High that blacks knew in Mississippi before the success of the Civil Rights movement -- only that not only blacks, but also most Hispanics and whites would endure fear, deprivation, and powerlessness.

We would have a brain drain, and probably lose much of our Asian and Jewish populations. What intelligent person wants to be a domestic servant? Education would be dumbed-down to accommodate the need for pliant, undemanding, and helpless workers to do personal service, gardening, and cleaning. The best jobs would be in the tourist trade in which one gets tips from foreigners, if not pay for sexual services. America would lose its leadership in technological innovation and would do badly in business formation. But there would be big projects done -- basically castles and mansions for the super-rich.

Now if it is not so right-wing?

It will be a fairer society with more opportunity. Even if ethnic divides in economic results still remain, they will be far lesser in significance. Basic education will be far more effective, and college education will revert to the norm of liberal arts. Technological progress will be strong, and a system with steeply-graduated taxes will foster niches for small business that do not now exist.

Political acrimony will have subsided. Extremism of any kind (including the Tea Party) will be held in contempt. Young adults accustomed to military service even in a short and successful Crisis War (let us say the extermination of ISIS with the aid of our Iranian and Russian allies) will create a trust in organization that carries over to the workplace -- and in strong unions. People with good health and good work ethics will do well enough to have middle-class standards of consumption.

Culture will be more homogenized. We'll be seeing less differentiation of music on the radio or whatever media by which we get it. There will be more music of a crossover interest. Of course that will often seem contemptible to high-brow critics, as was 'elevator music' that reduced pop tunes to arrangements suitable for pick-up symphony orchestras... but nobody is likely to complain about that until the next Awakening.

Women will probably be discouraged from entering the paid workforce except in the professions. Keeping male unemployment down will seem a very good idea because unemployed, angry men become receptive to extremist causes. Women who have less than graduate degrees will be expected to 'find themselves' in household activities and raising children.

Living spaces will look austere compared to what they look like now. People will access media from electronic sources and have far fewer physical media. The printing of books and pressing of video or music discs will all but disappear except as deliberate archaism. The status symbols of the time will be experiences and not suspect 'collectibles'.

The workweek will be much shorter. Government will promote leisure as a means of enriching lives, and leisure will be a bigger part of the economy. As in the 1930s, government will have reduced work hours to reduce unemployment and spread work to more people.

Children will participate much less in paid work. Educational attainment will matter far more than buying cars, flashy clothes, and electronic gadgets. College education will be far less expensive and more accessible. Replacing 'dead tree editions' with rented texts will itself cut costs. State college education will again be heavily subsidized instead of being a profit center for state governments and educational lenders/loan-sharks.

Politicians will promote thrift, self-development, investment, and enterprise among the masses instead of relying upon crony capitalists to manage production and legalized loan-sharks to manage consumption. The economy will be much more competitive both as a supplier of goods and as an employer.

Fundamentalist religion will be out of style. We may see huge changes in religious affiliation to fit a more rational time. Americans will be more scientifically literate.

So look at the 1950s and add technology just beyond what we have now, and have institutions that have made some genuine progress. The depravities of recent years will be extinguished. We will be in a "Bedford Falls", and not "Pottersville" even if we are now in "Pottersville".
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#61 at 10-31-2015 08:39 PM by Ragnarök_62 [at Oklahoma joined Nov 2006 #posts 5,511]
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Quote Originally Posted by MK'94 View Post
I'll get the ball rolling with my own, admittedly half-assed ideas.
A platform ?

I imagine an America where money in politics is illegal, and power is determined solely by the popularity of politicians among voters.
That needs a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens' United. Citizens' United of course is the worst Supreme Court decision since Dred Scott.

I imagine an America where it is recognized that a well-educated, healthy public is necessary for a functioning democracy, and so, higher education and health care are decoupled from the private sector and made free and universal to everyone.
Dude, nothing is "free". What taxes to you recommend be raised or added? MMT can work for some of this, but medical services do have an actual shortage that precludes actual full implementation of MMT. There are also parasites called insurance companies and trial lawyers to be deleted.

I imagine an America where people can come together on a government online platform to directly vote on which issues matter to them the most, and are therefore put before Congress by default, not by petition, but as a standardized system for public action.
There is nothing wrong with enacting legislation via plebiscite. Modern technology makes that possible. Of course the fact is, it would and could replace Congress. For the House, the plebiscite just needs to pass outright over the several states. For the Senate, the plebiscite needs to pass in a majority of the several states.

I imagine an America where gays, women, and minority races/ethnicity groups are treated equally before the law, with neither segregation, nor affirmative action.
Yes. Discrimination and Affirmative Action are anachronisms

.
I imagine an America that is powered not by fossil fuels, but by renewable energy sources, primarily solar power.
Of course. I'd add nuclear as well.

I imagine an America where job training programs are mandatory in exchange for unemployment welfare.
Uh, this is a fail because automation is stripping the demand for human labor. I think the post human labor era is approaching. I think MMT based unemployment/retirement payments are needed. The current rancor over national debt is silly. In MMT the Federal government can just issue treasury scrip with no debt attached like now. Printing money is not inflationary until the supply of money exceeds the amount of goods. If goods are made by bots and computer programs, the supply goes up without human labor.
I imagine an America with a livable minimum wage, indexed to inflation.
See above. The EITC can also be funded by MMT.

I imagine an America that is not the sole police force of the world, but instead works with the other nations of the world for a multilateral international security system.
Amen. So far we've looked like first class idiots in the Middle East.

That's all I got for now, haha, but I welcome other, more well-developed ideas based on more than just wishful thinking than mine were.
Done and my platform is around here someplace.
Last edited by Ragnarök_62; 10-31-2015 at 08:41 PM.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP

There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."







Post#62 at 11-01-2015 01:29 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62 View Post

That needs a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens' United. Citizens' United of course is the worst Supreme Court decision since Dred Scott.
Citizens United is arguably worse. Dred Scott affirmed the reality that already existed, establishing that people that most jurisdictions allotted no rights had no rights. It took no rights away from white people. Citizens United has transformed America into a plutocratic oligarchy to the detriment of all but the economic elites. It could destroy American democracy altogether, giving all power to people who believe that no human suffering is in excess so long as it turns a profit.



There is nothing wrong with enacting legislation via plebiscite. Modern technology makes that possible. Of course the fact is, it would and could replace Congress. For the House, the plebiscite just needs to pass outright over the several states. For the Senate, the plebiscite needs to pass in a majority of the several states.
Initiative and referendum are legal in many states. But like any electoral process it can be corrupted. One does not need a fascist or Commie dictatorship for Orwellian propaganda to work.

... automation is stripping the demand for human labor. I think the post human labor era is approaching. I think MMT based unemployment/retirement payments are needed. The current rancor over national debt is silly. In MMT the Federal government can just issue treasury scrip with no debt attached like now. Printing money is not inflationary until the supply of money exceeds the amount of goods. If goods are made by bots and computer programs, the supply goes up without human labor.
People must still write the programs and do maintenance of the programs. Robots must be tended. What is changing is that labor-intensive activities other than farming are disappearing. What used to take forty hours of work now takes much less. 30? 25? Economic elites have found how to get higher productivity on far lesser pay. What offered paradise has delivered a nightmare. So have utopian ideologies and religious cults that offer great bliss in return for blind faith.
Last edited by pbrower2a; 11-02-2015 at 01:18 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
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