Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Yes, but the false way of interpreting this cycle is to say that a "high" means anything but materialist conformity. A 1T is not the best turning, unless you like those things. Those of us who were awakened boomers prefer 2Ts. The 1T is best for institutions working well and collective consensus. 3Ts are best for personal development. 2Ts are best for transcending old ways of thinking and living, both personally and in society. 4Ts are best for changing institutions and entrenched secular powers. It all depends on your point of view. Calling the 1T "the high" is misleading. It suggests that the 1T is a high point in the cycle. It's not, unless you like that kind of turning.

the last high was about material conformity.

Id say they are more about conformity than anything. And it is a natural reaction because after decades of people screaming LOOK AT ME IM SPECIAL AND DIFFERENT people are sick of it.

don't you see the surge of the internet alt-right? Don't you see the millennials all having an agreed upon accepted style.

Conformity will be back because when you go through years of instability stability starts to look really nice instead of stifling (as your experience suggests)

Don't worry though in 30 years the new silent and Prophets will share your opinion of stifling. What they find stifling is yet to be seen.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

the last high was about material conformity.

Id say they are more about conformity than anything. And it is a natural reaction because after decades of people screaming LOOK AT ME IM SPECIAL AND DIFFERENT people are sick of it.

don't you see the surge of the internet alt-right? Don't you see the millennials all having an agreed upon accepted style.

Conformity will be back because when you go through years of instability stability starts to look really nice instead of stifling (as your experience suggests)

Don't worry though in 30 years the new silent and Prophets will share your opinion of stifling. What they find stifling is yet to be seen.

Perhaps it will be the overwhelming addiction to smartphone and other high-tech devices. It could well be that the early wave of the next Prophet generation will be in some form the reincarnation of the 1960s era Hippies. They just may revive interest in now old-fashioned values such as hand writing a letter or taking time to actually converse face-to-face in one-on-on conversation. They may just then have decided that it's time to start being the person(s) that we know we are. Self-discovery? Sound familiar? It's often tough to break away from the pact, yet it could be a worthwhile endeavor. There is nothing wrong with taking time out from the rest of the pack. Yet in many ways we have been both like sheep and also overly individualistic even though they sound like strange bedfellows.

I think that if anyone expects the neo-prophets to be some sort of reincarnation of the 1960s hippies is fooling themselves. In what way were the hippies like the Missionaries? They weren't other than having the characteristics common to all prophet generations. Rather, I would expect them to be much more like the Missionaries in that they will likely take the technology, assuming it survives, to the next level. They will be part of an advancement saeculum after all.

As for conformity during recoveries, a great deal of that has to do with decades of everyone being an individual. After decades of dealing with special snowflakes, people just want to be the same.

Originally Posted by Kinser79

... As for conformity during recoveries, a great deal of that has to do with decades of everyone being an individual. After decades of dealing with special snowflakes, people just want to be the same.

Something that worries me a bit is the inevitable fooling-around with our genetic makeup, hell it's already underway on a minor scale. What if "conformity" takes the form of genetic homogeneity as we see with the seed companies?

What if, in this dystopian nightmare of mine ... large corporations form bring couples in and "guarantee" them a blond, blue-eyed bombshell daughter and a blond, blue-eyed hunk for a son? And then President Trump generates laws that prohibit any newborns that don't fit the approved configuration?

Originally Posted by TnT

Something that worries me a bit is the inevitable fooling-around with our genetic makeup, hell it's already underway on a minor scale. What if "conformity" takes the form of genetic homogeneity as we see with the seed companies?

What if, in this dystopian nightmare of mine ... large corporations form bring couples in and "guarantee" them a blond, blue-eyed bombshell daughter and a blond, blue-eyed hunk for a son? And then President Trump generates laws that prohibit any newborns that don't fit the approved configuration?

And disabled people are "encouraged" to be voluntarily euthanized so they are not a "burden", this is a big reason many disability rights groups oppose voluntary euthanasia.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

the one thing wrong with the theory, or more, the way it was presented by Strause and Howe was that it basically used 1865-1997 as the example of ALL seculeams. which it shouldn't have. "1950's High" seems extremely positive because it happened to be for the US in our collective memories.

Try not to think of the "high" as a positive but maybe as the "high point" in the cycle. I prefer the seasons analogy more than the idea of a high point and a low point. You can have a crappy spring cant you? it can snow until late April and rain the rest of the time. That doesn't make it winter

You can have a mild winter, and a warm fall. And huge summer thunderstorms.

If you look back at our most recent history Id say our current winter is a bit mild, the fall was pleasant (80's and 90's) , a stormy summer(60's-70's) , a near perfect spring (45-65) and a pretty average winter (ww2) before that.

Id say the civil war was an especially bitter winter leading into a cold spring. etc.

I think the weather analogy is best.

Seasonally is a good way to think of the turnings, I think the current 4T catalyst(Crash of '08) was very bad but was quickly buffered by the bailouts but I think our 4T is beginning to become colder with the 2016 election and the political upheaval it's causing. I think the 2020s will be a complete blizzard with feet of snow.

How would you characterize the last saeculum(and maybe the one's before that), I'd agree that the Civil War was extremely bitter and the Gilded Age was a cooler spring compared to "The Fifties". The 1890s was a very stormy Awakening decade of depression, labor riots, and populism but the 1900s was more pleasant later summer with a very popular "progressive" president and calming of the social mood. The 1910s had the hangovers of summer with the continuing of The Progressive Era and a taste of winter at the end of the decade, 4T like triggers with the Red Summer/Scare. The 1920s was a more pleasant autumn(mirroring the late 1990s in imo).

Going back even further I'd say the post-Revolutionary Era of Good Feelings(1800-1820) was a average spring, The Transcendental Awakening(1820s & 1830s) seems mild compared to the 1890s and 1960s but the 1850s was a very winter-like 3T.

Originally Posted by Emman85

Seasonally is a good way to think of the turnings, I think the current 4T catalyst(Crash of '08) was very bad but was quickly buffered by the bailouts but I think our 4T is beginning to become colder with the 2016 election and the political upheaval it's causing. I think the 2020s will be a complete blizzard with feet of snow.

How would you characterize the last saeculum(and maybe the one's before that), I'd agree that the Civil War was extremely bitter and the Gilded Age was a cooler spring compared to "The Fifties". The 1890s was a very stormy Awakening decade of depression, labor riots, and populism but the 1900s was more pleasant later summer with a very popular "progressive" president and calming of the social mood. The 1910s had the hangovers of summer with the continuing of The Progressive Era and a taste of winter at the end of the decade, 4T like triggers with the Red Summer/Scare. The 1920s was a more pleasant autumn(mirroring the late 1990s in imo).

Going back even further I'd say the post-Revolutionary Era of Good Feelings(1800-1820) was a average spring, The Transcendental Awakening(1820s & 1830s) seems mild compared to the 1890s and 1960s but the 1850s was a very winter-like 3T.

As for right now I still lean to a 2001/05 crisis beginning but as I have said before It will depend on what happens over the next 5-10 years, if we are in the spring by 21' or 22' then the crisis was an 01 if we are sill here by the mid 20's then it will likely be 05'. As for 08' just as so many here say 01' is too early 08 is too late, I firmly believe we were in Crisis in 08' 2008 was just a confirmation that we were in one.(recall the 2008 Wasaaaaaap super bowl ad that poked fun at how quint the 90's was) but that's besides the point. I think this crisis is tough to point out because a) we are a nation at peak power and prosperity so we have a lot of give and capcity to take the blows of the crisis. b) like most things its hard to identify it while you are living in it.


Im also one of these people that consider most if not all of the 1850's as part of the Civil war crisis and I don't understand how S&H could see it as anything but.

otherwise your characterizations are pretty much what I would choose, the 1800's Winter and spring were cold and harsh but the latter half of that seculeam was fairly mild, WW2 despite being a massive crisis in scale was really a fairly average Crisis from an American perspective.

Originally Posted by TnT

Something that worries me a bit is the inevitable fooling-around with our genetic makeup, hell it's already underway on a minor scale. What if "conformity" takes the form of genetic homogeneity as we see with the seed companies?

What if, in this dystopian nightmare of mine ...

Your dystopian nightmare is just that, a nightmare. The removal of genetic markers that lead to degenerative disease would be a net positive. However, your fears are unfounded, the simple fact of the matter is that concentrating recessive genes to the extent you are envisioning would lead to species wide weakness. Something that Monsanto is finding out relatively quickly.

Originally Posted by Kinser79

Your dystopian nightmare is just that, a nightmare. The removal of genetic markers that lead to degenerative disease would be a net positive. However, your fears are unfounded, the simple fact of the matter is that concentrating recessive genes to the extent you are envisioning would lead to species wide weakness. Something that Monsanto is finding out relatively quickly.

From your lips to god's ears.

You appear to have more confidence in the wisdom of people than I do. And ... ok, I confess, I have become a bit of a cynic about human nature.

We already have a small example of this sort of thing in the Chinese's limitation of couples to one child. That led to a surplus of boys over time - one of the unintended consequences of fooling around with Mother Nature. I guess they've backed off.

It wouldn't take a radical amount of genetic modification to change people incrementally over, say, fifty years, to get to the point where a real distinction might be present. Kind of a step back to real eugenics - the old version back in the early Twentieth Century got pretty nasty, and that was about mere selective breeding sorts of concepts.

A series of genetic modifications could lead to a real bifurcation of the species. No one knows where that could go, but to pretend that moneyed people wouldn't do it? Sorry, I can't believe that somehow.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

As for right now I still lean to a 2001/05 crisis beginning but as I have said before It will depend on what happens over the next 5-10 years, if we are in the spring by 21' or 22' then the crisis was an 01 if we are sill here by the mid 20's then it will likely be 05'. As for 08' just as so many here say 01' is too early 08 is too late, I firmly believe we were in Crisis in 08' 2008 was just a confirmation that we were in one.(recall the 2008 Wasaaaaaap super bowl ad that poked fun at how quint the 90's was) but that's besides the point. I think this crisis is tough to point out because a) we are a nation at peak power and prosperity so we have a lot of give and capcity to take the blows of the crisis. b) like most things its hard to identify it while you are living in it.


Im also one of these people that consider most if not all of the 1850's as part of the Civil war crisis and I don't understand how S&H could see it as anything but.

otherwise your characterizations are pretty much what I would choose, the 1800's Winter and spring were cold and harsh but the latter half of that seculeam was fairly mild, WW2 despite being a massive crisis in scale was really a fairly average Crisis from an American perspective.

By the way, what is the main focus of this Crisis? It still seems too early to find out.

Originally Posted by millst98

By the way, what is the main focus of this Crisis? It still seems too early to find out.

Economy/Ecology.

The previous crisis was about a great depression brought on by corporate greed, inequality and reckless speculation. But it also involved a powerful challenge from overseas aggression; enough to give the crisis climax a foreign-policy emphasis. On the other hand, if we include the 1850s, the next previous crisis had some foreign challenges, starting with a mass migration from climate change (Irish famine) and revolution (1848) as well as blowback from the USA's foreign conquests (Mexican War victory stirred up the slavery issue), and later possible foreign meddling in our affairs during the Civil War. But the Civil War climax indicated that this next-previous 4T was primarily domestic.

If the double rhythm operates, as indicated by cosmic cycles, then this 4T is already shaping up as primarily domestic, but with similar pressures from abroad as in the 1850s and 60s.

The domestic battle is quite similar to what emerged out of the unequal, culture-warring society of the 1920s, with recklessness and accumulation of power by economic elites forcing a movement toward economic equality. The 1930s also featured an ecological crisis (the Dust Bowl), and this time it is much more serious and worldwide in scope. But whereas a unified response to the domestic crisis was possible last time thanks to the timing, skill and popularity of FDR, this time we are divided like we were in the Civil War crisis, and so this 4T cannot be dealt with or brought to a climax without a domestic struggle and a victory of the progressive "blue" side over the reactionary side in the national divide.

Originally Posted by millst98

By the way, what is the main focus of this Crisis? It still seems too early to find out.

What's the main focus of any crisis? What was the focus of the last one? Union rights? Stock Market Speculation? racial tensions? Nazism? Shinto-Japanese aggression? Post-industrial society?

The Crisis doesn't really have a focus, it just resolves the issues that need to be and can be resolved for the society to move onto a new consensus. Over the last 15 years there are a lot of things we haven't resolved, Terrorism, Government role (too much or too little), Economic disparities, civil rights, Environmentalism, Our role in the world, Cultural values, Immigration etc. etc.

so this 4T cannot be dealt with or brought to a climax without a domestic struggle and a victory of the progressive "blue" side over the reactionary side in the national divide.

When the Crisis or if the Crisis "solves" any of these issues it wont be because that is the best solution or a solution at all, it will or wont be "resolved" to a point that the society at large accepts the new zeitgeist of the coming high. Weather that jives personally with what you or I or any of us would like to see happen is irrelevant.

I know you like to think that this theory has some sort of vindication for your leftists beliefs, I mean, I guess it could and probably will in some cases, but if you think that somehow all the do--good liberalism is about to unify to stop "climate Change" and that we will walk arm and arm into the age of Aquarius to pleas your ageing naïve hippy heart.. ... you are out of your damn mind!

much more likely is some things will be "solved" (meaning we will all just move on) , some will be squashed and forgotten until the next awakening (or longer) some things will sit and fester and some will be erased from existence. And even worse the seeds for the next crisis will be sown in our solutions.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

What's the main focus of any crisis? What was the focus of the last one? Union rights? Stock Market Speculation? racial tensions? Nazism? Shinto-Japanese aggression? Post-industrial society?

The Crisis doesn't really have a focus, it just resolves the issues that need to be and can be resolved for the society to move onto a new consensus. Over the last 15 years there are a lot of things we haven't resolved, Terrorism, Government role (too much or too little), Economic disparities, civil rights, Environmentalism, Our role in the world, Cultural values, Immigration etc. etc.



When the Crisis or if the Crisis "solves" any of these issues it wont be because that is the best solution or a solution at all, it will or wont be "resolved" to a point that the society at large accepts the new zeitgeist of the coming high. Weather that jives personally with what you or I or any of us would like to see happen is irrelevant.

I know you like to think that this theory has some sort of vindication for your leftists beliefs, I mean, I guess it could and probably will in some cases, but if you think that somehow all the do--good liberalism is about to unify to stop "climate Change" and that we will walk arm and arm into the age of Aquarius to pleas your ageing naïve hippy heart.. ... you are out of your damn mind!

much more likely is some things will be "solved" (meaning we will all just move on) , some will be squashed and forgotten until the next awakening (or longer) some things will sit and fester and some will be erased from existence. And even worse the seeds for the next crisis will be sown in our solutions.

I don't think that you and I necessarily share the same socio-ecomonic-politico space, but I sure like what you said here!

Yeah, I think "Stuff Happens," and after it's all over, we may or may not be able to conjure up a pattern in the events that fit tidily into The Theory. I guess we are all here because we think that this recurrent pattern seems to work at some level.

There is always the Black Swan, or the October Surprise, or some other damn thing that can and maybe will happen that could galvanize our whole population in a concerted effort to "solve" some problem. Or not.

There are even some possibilities that seem highly probable, sooner or later.

For example, a geological/tectonic event that drastically changes the ground we stand on - that one is just a matter of time - it's coming, we just don't know when.

A microbiological catastrophe - some virus is going to jump from another species to our species, and it's going to be very contagious and it's going to be airborne and it's going to cause a lot of trouble. Just a matter of time.

Human behavior - we, as a species, are crazier than outhouse rats. It's just a matter of time before some group or another gets their hands on a REAL WMD - not some imitation thing like nerve gas, but something that has the potential to kill tens or hundreds of millions. Just a matter of time.

Any one of these things could take over a given "Crisis Period", or some other period for that matter, and monopolize our attention as a species.

Prediction is fun, and it gives us an illusion that we have some sort of control over our future, but the Rumsfeldian unknown unknowns are always out there.

Originally Posted by TnT

From your lips to god's ears.

You appear to have more confidence in the wisdom of people than I do. And ... ok, I confess, I have become a bit of a cynic about human nature.

We already have a small example of this sort of thing in the Chinese's limitation of couples to one child. That led to a surplus of boys over time - one of the unintended consequences of fooling around with Mother Nature. I guess they've backed off.

It wouldn't take a radical amount of genetic modification to change people incrementally over, say, fifty years, to get to the point where a real distinction might be present. Kind of a step back to real eugenics - the old version back in the early Twentieth Century got pretty nasty, and that was about mere selective breeding sorts of concepts.

A series of genetic modifications could lead to a real bifurcation of the species. No one knows where that could go, but to pretend that moneyed people wouldn't do it? Sorry, I can't believe that somehow.

Chinese version of genetic engineering. Elimination of sequences that are thought to result in:
1) Individuality
2) Suspicion of authority
3) Any disorder affecting conformity, social skills, etc (ASD, Turret's, PDD, ADHD, etc)
4) Any negroid features
5) Essentially, anything that might result in "the nail that sticks up" ("and must be pounded down").

Originally Posted by Debol1990

Im also one of these people that consider most if not all of the 1850's as part of the Civil war crisis and I don't understand how S&H could see it as anything but.

A 4T in the 1850's did not fit their theory.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

A 4T in the 1850's did not fit their theory.

I think it fits just fine, as you know. We are in a time quite similar to the 1850s. The civil war anomaly was not quite necessary. They extended the transcendental generation and the earlier turnings too long, and cut the civil war turning short by eliminating the run-up to the war in the 1850s. It could have been done so that Lincoln would fit their gray champion prophet stereotype.

Originally Posted by Debol1990

What's the main focus of any crisis? What was the focus of the last one? Union rights? Stock Market Speculation? racial tensions? Nazism? Shinto-Japanese aggression? Post-industrial society?

The Crisis doesn't really have a focus, it just resolves the issues that need to be and can be resolved for the society to move onto a new consensus. Over the last 15 years there are a lot of things we haven't resolved, Terrorism, Government role (too much or too little), Economic disparities, civil rights, Environmentalism, Our role in the world, Cultural values, Immigration etc. etc.

Yes, it's over the last 35 years or more though.

When the Crisis or if the Crisis "solves" any of these issues it won't be because that is the best solution or a solution at all, it will or won't be "resolved" to a point that the society at large accepts the new zeitgeist of the coming high. Weather that jives personally with what you or I or any of us would like to see happen is irrelevant.

I know you like to think that this theory has some sort of vindication for your leftists beliefs, I mean, I guess it could and probably will in some cases, but if you think that somehow all the do--good liberalism is about to unify to stop "climate Change" and that we will walk arm and arm into the age of Aquarius to please your ageing naïve hippy heart.. ... you are out of your damn mind!

much more likely is some things will be "solved" (meaning we will all just move on) , some will be squashed and forgotten until the next awakening (or longer) some things will sit and fester and some will be erased from existence. And even worse the seeds for the next crisis will be sown in our solutions.

I see this was a response to me, not to millst98.

I was wondering about that, so I checked to make sure

My aging naive hippy heart; yes, ain't it the truth

I don't disagree, except that I don't think some things will be "solved" meaning that "we will all just move on;" some things really DO need to be "solved," and we won't be able to "move on" if we don't solve them, at least to a degree. That certainly includes climate change, and in fact that solution is already on track due to both government and market solutions being already enacted. All 4Ts require some real solutions to a crisis before we can move into a misnamed "high" (or better-named "recovery").

My hippieheart has no illusions about total solutions to all problems in a new age to come soon; yet I can read the signs of the times, cosmic and otherwise, to tell clearly that we live in muddled and confused times, but that Bernie's activism is a sign of things to come, and that much will move much more quickly after the 2010s become the 2020s, as the muddle clears and we move from the water into the fire.

Folks here can if they choose remember my prophecies today, and sit back and watch them happen, and remember too how many I have posted here since 1997 that have already come true. Of course, I understand that you are not on board with the solutions if you are contemplating a Republican vote, but I guess that's your choice to be on board with the solutions, such as they are; or not.

Originally Posted by TnT

I don't think that you and I necessarily share the same socio-ecomonic-politico space, but I sure like what you said here!

Yeah, I think "Stuff Happens," and after it's all over, we may or may not be able to conjure up a pattern in the events that fit tidily into The Theory. I guess we are all here because we think that this recurrent pattern seems to work at some level.

There is always the Black Swan, or the October Surprise, or some other damn thing that can and maybe will happen that could galvanize our whole population in a concerted effort to "solve" some problem. Or not.

There are even some possibilities that seem highly probable, sooner or later.

For example, a geological/tectonic event that drastically changes the ground we stand on - that one is just a matter of time - it's coming, we just don't know when.

A microbiological catastrophe - some virus is going to jump from another species to our species, and it's going to be very contagious and it's going to be airborne and it's going to cause a lot of trouble. Just a matter of time.

Human behavior - we, as a species, are crazier than outhouse rats. It's just a matter of time before some group or another gets their hands on a REAL WMD - not some imitation thing like nerve gas, but something that has the potential to kill tens or hundreds of millions. Just a matter of time.

Any one of these things could take over a given "Crisis Period", or some other period for that matter, and monopolize our attention as a species.

Prediction is fun, and it gives us an illusion that we have some sort of control over our future, but the Rumsfeldian unknown unknowns are always out there.

The problem with this description of 4Ts, is that in fact previous "crises" have not been out of the blue and unexpected disasters at all, but the clear outcome of decades of specific controversy and the mistaken/failed/inadequate attempts to resolve them. You can mention the international rivalries and the domestic movements toward more-concentrated or more-liberalized power that marked the run-ups and crises of the British saecula period. You can mention the long-simmering Revolution that climaxed the enlightenment discontents and the British-French rivalries; then the obvious climax to the long-simmering sectional disputes of the new republic; and then the industrial age oligarchy in conflict with the progressive movement catalyzed by the inevitable Great Depression into the resulting New Deal, combined with the decades-long nationalist rivalries and racist propaganda that climaxed in the holocaust. NONE of these 4Ts came out of nowhere at all, but were all clear outcomes to developments that were foreseen by the clear-eyed prophets of their times.

So, it's easy to see that today's crisis will center on the simmering domestic and world conflicts of the last 50 years since the Awakening. We all know what they are, and we know that the divide in our nation needs to be overcome with victory by the progressive side in a great climax to those conflicts; just as has happened every time previously.