Originally Posted by
JustPassingThrough
For Republicans, the last four presidents were from Texas and California. But Texas has become a reliable Republican state, and California is not producing any viable Republicans at all. Arnold actually would have been a very strong candidate for the nomination, before he had some setbacks, moved left and got divorced, but he was not born in the US.
A better comparison for Walker is Bill Clinton. Arkansas is not an electoral giant, but it is in the South. By nominating Clinton, the Democrats were able to downplay their coastal elitism and make inroads into Republican territory. The Midwest (which was previously the epicenter of the "Reagan Democrat" phenomenon) is a region where Republicans have the potential to make inroads. The whole region has elected conservative Republicans in a slew of statewide races in recent years, both governors and senators. Walker is the strongest of those. In addition, exit polls from 2012 show that one of Romney' biggest weaknesses was with white, working class voters in the Midwest. A huge number of them stayed home, while black voters turned out in droves to support Obama. Black turnout exceeded white turnout for the first time in recorded history. That's why Romney lost. By comparison, if all else had remained equal, Romney would have had to win something like 75% of the Hispanic vote to win the election.
Frankly, unless Republicans could put California in play, chasing the Hispanic vote is not that helpful in the electoral college. The only states where it has any impact are CO, NV, NM and FL, but they already do well with Cubans who are a big part of the Hispanic population in FL, which is the most important swing state
of that group.
Right now, if I had to make a prediction, as early as it is, I would say the Republican ticket could well be Walker/Rubio. That is probably the ideal ticket, at least based on the superficial characteristics (which matter quite a bit, as Obama has proved). They are much younger than Hillary Clinton, both grew up in economically humble circumstances, Walker is a governor from outside Washington, from a region where Republicans can make inroads, and Rubio is a Hispanic candidate from FL. They target all of the key constituencies and critical swing states, and Walker has the potential to mobilize the base in ways recent nominees have not.
Just a very early informed guess on my part.