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Thread: Age of Potentential 2016 Candidates - Page 10







Post#226 at 04-15-2015 10:02 PM by Classic-X'er [at joined Sep 2012 #posts 1,789]
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Quote Originally Posted by JustPassingThrough View Post
The purpose of this thread was to look at the generational divide illustrated by the chart in the first post. The Republican candidates are largely Xers, and the Democrats are generally very old Boomers.

What I had actually forgotten to some degree was how badly this forum has devolved over time into a run-of-the-mill, left wing ideologue political forum, with little or no interest in the subjects raised by S&H. There are a few obsessive Boomers of the most dogmatic, partisan-blinder variety who drive every thread into this territory. In other words, nothing has changed. And it makes this forum not worth paying much attention to, because this kind of stuff exists everywhere on the internet where politics is discussed. The generational subject is what should be unique here, but there is little attention paid to it, except as a secondary rationale for left wing dogma. Oh well.

So as a means of a sort of final response before I'm overcome by boredom here once again, a lot of the posts by the usual suspects above display a kind of megalomaniacal, quasi-religious belief that is common among the most hardcore Democrats and leftists, that the US is destined for one-party rule, with the Republicans being run out of existence and the Democrats maintaining absolute control, forever. That's at the core of the belief system that expresses itself in the increasingly totalitarian, collectivist ideology of the left.

Nate Silver, who had been worshiped by the left in recent times, just posted an article (referenced above) that has earned him a hailstorm of repudiation by these True Believers:

Clinton Begins The 2016 Campaign, And Itís A Toss-up

It's a pretty run-of-the-mill, cautious early assessment that puts Hillary Clinton's odds of winning at 50-50. He also includes plenty of left-leaning bias against Republicans. But he did something that strikes at the heart of the left wingnut belief system, and has been met with a large blowback of denial. He rejected both the "Blue Wall" and "demographic inevitability" articles of faith.

John Judis, who co-wrote the book "The Emerging Democratic Majority" in the early 2000s, has also recently stated that the concept, which originated with that book, has become exaggerated and over-interpreted by Democrats compared to the original intent.

Without going into all the details, the summary of what Judis has noted and Silver has repeated is that the big electoral advancement predicted for Democrats is not some open-ended, permanent majority (the same thing was predicted for Republicans as recently as 2004). Rather, that trend for Democrats already happened, and peaked in 2008 (the same year, don't forget, that Boomer representation in political office peaked). Since then, the pendulum has swung back sharply in the other direction. Republicans now hold their largest majorities in Congress since before the Great Depression. They also hold the majority of governorships and state legislatures, and in many states they control both. All of that has happened in the last 6 years.

The response of Democrats has been to double down with even greater intensity and single-minded focus on "identity politics". They are taking the horse Obama rode in on, and riding it into the ground along with his approval ratings. Obamacare is and has been extremely unpopular since before it was passed, and their foreign policy and economic policy have been complete failures. So all they have left is to try even harder to divide people by race, sex and so forth, and they think they can do it all one more time with Hillary, whose only qualification is that she's female. That's where we now stand. The Democrats are on the downswing of a pendulum we've seen many times in politics, where one side gets the wind at its back, racks up some victories, then goes too far and suffers a backlash. It's impossible to know yet for a fact who will win in 2016, but the larger trends are clear, and the historical odds are not in Hillary's favor. Ronald Reagan had approval ratings in the 60s and a booming economy that led to George Bush being elected in 1988. That is the only time either party has won three terms since the passage of the 22nd Amendment. Obama's approval ratings and the economy are not good. And yet some people (including posts here) actually believe Hillary is an absolute lock in 2016 who cannot lose. It is arguably an expression of legitimate mental illness.

Which brings me back to generations, and the chart in the first post. "Nomads" (who are archetypically a conservative/Republican-leaning generation) moving towards leadership, meaning society is heading towards the 1T. When you look at both S&H and reality, this conclusion is pretty clear. And there are plenty of precedents in the last 4T. Republicans made a comeback, and among other things passed the 22nd Amendment, making sure there would never be another 4 term president, with the slide towards dictatorship that began to threaten.

The issues this time around are completely different from the last 4T, but should not be a surprise given the nature of the "Prophet" generation. When you look back at the 60s and 70s, the things the left has done are not surprising at all. It makes for a very weird 4T compared to what S&H predicted, but it's pretty obvious when you balance their theories with a look at what is actually happening in reality. If they were right, we are headed for an Xer leadership that puts a halt to the far left and restores peace and prosperity to a society on the verge of collapse. If something else happens, they were either wrong, or we're in their worst-case scenario where the society collapses and disintegrates.
I don't pay much attention to it because there is an obviously flaw in the generational concept of the theory which determines who is what as far as generational archetype and roles are concerned.







Post#227 at 04-16-2015 12:24 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Classic-X'er View Post
The GOP is a party of principle that's united/bonded by common principles.
Basically what the oil billionaire H. L. said: he who has the gold makes the rules. I can think of better -- rules that allow more people to believe that they have chances in the game so that they don't withdraw.

The Democrat party is a party of various ideals that is bonded/influenced/controlled by government funding.
First it must succeed. Then it must succeed again. And again. And again. Success means desirable results for more than the plutocrats of America -- or crooks.


The GOP is now becoming the party of buckle down, stick with it, stick to your guns who are in it for the long fight.
They certainly expect us all to support an increasingly inegalitarian order in which millions suffer for the indulgence of a few. Stick to the guns? Sure! The gun lobby owns the Republican Party on firearms policy -- promote the sale of all the guns that could possibly made.

The GOP of old used to just smile, grumble and go along for the sake of themselves and the Republican party. Dude, the bulk of the kids and grandchildren of the old Democrats are now Republican voters.
... and in much of the country, the inverse is also true.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#228 at 04-16-2015 02:06 AM by Classic-X'er [at joined Sep 2012 #posts 1,789]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Oh, the War on Christmas, of course. Sorry, but the courts have ruled that government can't sponsor religious events. This has nothing to do with elected officials of either party. You can disagree, but would you be OK with a Satanic event sponsored at your local high school? If you allow one, you have to allow the other too.
Our schools aren't owned by the government.







Post#229 at 04-16-2015 10:43 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Classic-X'er View Post
Our schools aren't owned by the government.
K-12 schools can sponsor religious activities if they are not government schools. It's clear that kids attending a Catholic school will get plenty of religious education and activity.

Public schools can allow religious-themed activity if such is very individual (lunchtime grace in the school cafeteria done by a student -- no problem) and can allow activities such as the performance of a religiously-themed play or musical work if there is legitimate educational value in it (as in discussing a great masterpiece of art that has religious themes or performing a Bach cantata). Schools can teach about religion if even handed as in history classes, but even that has risks that many teachers avoid. I try to show the relatedness of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam... Jews have the Torah and recognize one God unsuited to any division and have no use for Jesus or Mohammed; Christians add the Gospels to the Torah and see Jesus as the fulfillment of Jewish prophecy as the Son of God -- and Savior but have no use for Mohammed (because of the Book of Mormon I cannot consider Mormons Christians); Muslims have the Koran which extracts from the Torah and the Gospels and worship the same God as Jews, recognize Jesus as the second-greatest of the prophets that include the prophets of Judaism, and recognize Mohammed as the last and greatest Prophet of God.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#230 at 04-16-2015 12:11 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by Classic-X'er View Post
It's hard to picture a circle with levels and hard to understand how tightening up one level of the circle will slow down the entire circle. It easy to picture a train with wheels and accept that tightening one wheel will slow down the train.
If the train is the analogy, then what's wrong is GOP critters want to choke the engine from getting enough air - some because they honestly believe the train will go too fast and come off the rails, but most because they don't like the current conductor, Obama, and they're hoping to slow the train to a crawl and piss off the passengers enough so they want to get rid of Obama or his successor, Hillary.

One set is just ignorant, the other set is ignorant and traitorous.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

ďItís not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed Ö so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Itís much more akin to printing money.Ē - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#231 at 04-16-2015 01:31 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Classic-X'er View Post
It's hard to picture a circle with levels and hard to understand how tightening up one level of the circle will slow down the entire circle. It easy to picture a train with wheels and accept that tightening one wheel will slow down the train.
OK, if that works for you, then use it. It's just an analogy anyway.

The economy consists of money moving one way with goods and services traveling the other way. When I sell something, I get money to use to buy something later. If I'm frightened about the economic climate, I'll hold the money for a rainy day. If everyone does that, the economy stops, cold dead. So being optimistic means being a bit of a spend thrift. That happens in good economic times, and the excessive saving happens in bad times. Since the poor and middle class spend more of what they acquire than the wealthy, policies that allow them to be rationally optimistic helps the economy ... which benefits everyone.

I'm sure your customers buy what they must when they must, but they will only buy what they want when they feel they can. That second category is discretionary spending. It's the spending that makes good times good.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#232 at 04-16-2015 01:34 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Classic-X'er View Post
Our schools aren't owned by the government.
If your schools are non-charter private schools, then they can do anything freedom of speech and assembly will allow.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#233 at 04-16-2015 02:54 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
If your schools are non-charter private schools, then they can do anything freedom of speech and assembly will allow.
Well, if you want to get technical, there are basic safety and child welfare standards. Like no making children at the private school work for 80 hours instead of learn, no boiling them alive in oil, etc...
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#234 at 04-16-2015 03:37 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Wonkette View Post
Well, if you want to get technical, there are basic safety and child welfare standards. Like no making children at the private school work for 80 hours instead of learn, no boiling them alive in oil, etc...
I was hoping that this level of detail was not needed but you may be right. There is a disconnect along ideological lines that makes interpretation errors common.

Good Catholics would call that a sin of omission: not as grave as a sin of commission, but not innocent either. Mea culpa.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#235 at 04-24-2015 05:37 PM by mockingbirdstl [at USA joined May 2014 #posts 399]
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We've already had our first Generation X president. We might have another, if Martin O'Malley decides to run. (Or we could have Paul or Cruz or Rubio, but I'd really prefer not to.) Why does everyone want to ignore the fact that Barack Obama (1961) is Gen X (1961-1981)? I suppose some will say he's not really Gen X, he's Gen Jones. If that is the case, then FDR (1882) is not really a Missionary Prophet (1860-1882).
Nomad Female
"Good girls go to heaven, bad girls go everywhere." --Mae West
Nomad INFP
"Sunday morning is every day for all I care, and I'm not scared...Now my candle's in a daze 'cause I've found God." --Kurt Cobain







Post#236 at 04-24-2015 09:29 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,115]
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Quote Originally Posted by mockingbirdstl View Post
We've already had our first Generation X president. We might have another, if Martin O'Malley decides to run. (Or we could have Paul or Cruz or Rubio, but I'd really prefer not to.) Why does everyone want to ignore the fact that Barack Obama (1961) is Gen X (1961-1981)? I suppose some will say he's not really Gen X, he's Gen Jones. If that is the case, then FDR (1882) is not really a Missionary Prophet (1860-1882).
I too agree that Obama is more of an Xer than a boomer. An archetypical boomer pres. would not have kept insisting on compromise more than once or twice after the opposition showed no interest in making deals. It would have been ''my way or the highway'' by early 2010.







Post#237 at 04-24-2015 10:46 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by mockingbirdstl View Post
We've already had our first Generation X president. We might have another, if Martin O'Malley decides to run. (Or we could have Paul or Cruz or Rubio, but I'd really prefer not to.) Why does everyone want to ignore the fact that Barack Obama (1961) is Gen X (1961-1981)? I suppose some will say he's not really Gen X, he's Gen Jones. If that is the case, then FDR (1882) is not really a Missionary Prophet (1860-1882).
You can't really escape the meaning of cusps. Obama and FDR were both, and so was Lincoln.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#238 at 04-24-2015 10:53 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
You can't really escape the meaning of cusps. Obama and FDR were both, and so was Lincoln.
Lincoln only becomes as such if you believe my interpretation of 19th Century generations which would up the Prophet/Nomad border to 1808/1809 from S&H's 1821/1822.

I agree with such analysis of course, but it's hardly accepted by everyone.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#239 at 04-25-2015 01:13 AM by princeofcats67 [at joined Jan 2010 #posts 1,995]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
Lincoln only becomes as such if you believe my interpretation of 19th Century generations which would up the Prophet/Nomad border to 1808/1809 from S&H's 1821/1822.

I agree with such analysis of course, but it's hardly accepted by everyone.
Chas, as I believe you already are aware, I agree, as well.
(although, I'd bump the demarcation-line even earlier than you do! )

I must admit that I'm surprised every time I see someone describe President Obama
as a Nomad(ie: Gen-Xer). I can see a few Nomad-traits, but speaking from the POV
of a Nomad, he ain't one; He's way more Prophet-y from my perspective.

But, there's always the possibility that it depends on if someone agrees with his
personality(ie: likes or dislikes him and his perspective/actions) to some degree.
(So maybe, because I don't agree with him, I can't see him as part of my cohort.)
I really don't know, but I'll say it again: he ain't a Nomad(at least, fundamentally).

Basically, I'd say he's on the Prophet/Nomad-cusp, but way more on the Prophet side.


Prince

PS: You know Chas, it's awfully weird that people post on this message board and
describe people by their 'physical generation'(eg: Silents/Boomers/Gen-Xers/Millys),
as opposed to their 'generational characteristics'(eg: Artists/Prophets/Nomads/Civics).

I've often suspected that people really don't know what those characteristics are,
or maybe are only looking at what they think the characteristics are based on the
current 'generational constellation'.

Do you have any thoughts on this?
I Am A Child of God/Nature/The Universe
I Think Globally and Act Individually(and possibly, voluntarily join-together with Others)
I Pray for World Peace & I Choose Less-Just Say: "NO!, Thank You."







Post#240 at 04-25-2015 08:56 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
I too agree that Obama is more of an Xer than a boomer. An archetypical boomer pres. would not have kept insisting on compromise more than once or twice after the opposition showed no interest in making deals. It would have been ''my way or the highway'' by early 2010.
Yes, that is a character flaw at this point in the cycle. We needed FDR and got Truman. I don't see HC as the kind of Prophet that will lead us out of the valley either, and JEB? Fuggitaboudit. The most Prophet-like of the Xers is O'Malley, but he's a huge long-shot. On the GOP side, I don't see anyone.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#241 at 04-25-2015 10:35 PM by mockingbirdstl [at USA joined May 2014 #posts 399]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
You can't really escape the meaning of cusps. Obama and FDR were both, and so was Lincoln.
Then perhaps 4T crisis eras are not really "Prophet led," but rather "Prophet/Nomad led."
Nomad Female
"Good girls go to heaven, bad girls go everywhere." --Mae West
Nomad INFP
"Sunday morning is every day for all I care, and I'm not scared...Now my candle's in a daze 'cause I've found God." --Kurt Cobain







Post#242 at 04-25-2015 10:57 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,115]
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Unhappy Our mileage may vary (to say the least)

Quote Originally Posted by mockingbirdstl View Post
Then perhaps 4T crisis eras are not really "Prophet led," but rather "Prophet/Nomad led."
In Generations S and H referred to the prophet and nomad roles as being ''visionary'' and ''pragmatic'' respectively.
I find it reasonably close to how I picture the ideal 4T endowment from elders and midlifers.
(And a public spirited youth build a future that they can believe in.)
Last edited by herbal tee; 04-25-2015 at 10:59 PM.







Post#243 at 04-25-2015 11:08 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Yes, that is a character flaw at this point in the cycle. We needed FDR and got Truman. I don't see HC as the kind of Prophet that will lead us out of the valley either, and JEB? Fuggitaboudit. The most Prophet-like of the Xers is O'Malley, but he's a huge long-shot. On the GOP side, I don't see anyone.
After Dubya, who bungled the Prophet role as badly as anyone could, maybe we needed a mature Reactive to throw some ice-water realism on the fire. Barack Obama is the best sort of Reactive that a country could have as a ruler -- someone cautious, with no rancor, who has no agenda of revenge-taking, and of course without some over-arching agenda. Dubya made him possible, and perhaps necessary.

2016 will be time for a Prophet... but we will be much more selective.

The underworld-style whacking of Osama bin Laden suggests that he is no Boomer.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#244 at 04-26-2015 07:29 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,115]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
2016 will be time for a Prophet... but we will be much more selective.
Will we? Yes the demographics in 2016 will be more foavirable to the Dems. than they were in 2000 and 2004, but if anything American is more atomized and tribal than it was a decade ago IMHO.
The underworld-style whacking of Osama bin Laden suggests that he is no Boomer.
Agreed. A Lost gen. mobster would have smiled at the take out.







Post#245 at 04-27-2015 11:56 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Yes, that is a character flaw at this point in the cycle. We needed FDR and got Truman. I don't see HC as the kind of Prophet that will lead us out of the valley either, and JEB? Fuggitaboudit. The most Prophet-like of the Xers is O'Malley, but he's a huge long-shot. On the GOP side, I don't see anyone.
NO president elected in 2016 will lead us out of anything. Only when the Crisis comes to a climax in the mid-2020s might a leader appear that will lead us out of the crisis. Herbaltee is correct that this will likely be a Prophet/Nomad hybrid or cusper (as is Obama) rather than a core prophet like HC. Or it could be a Nomad like George Washington. The best the president elected in 2016 can do is help us muddle through in reasonable shape until then. HC seems admirably suited for that role.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#246 at 04-27-2015 11:59 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
In Generations S and H referred to the prophet and nomad roles as being ''visionary'' and ''pragmatic'' respectively.
Which means of the fire and earth elements respectively (referring to the other thread).
I find it reasonably close to how I picture the ideal 4T endowment from elders and midlifers.
(And a public spirited youth build a future that they can believe in.)
Collegial, rational/communication and public institution-minded; air element. A millie world built on social networking.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#247 at 04-27-2015 12:41 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
NO president elected in 2016 will lead us out of anything. Only when the Crisis comes to a climax in the mid-2020s might a leader appear that will lead us out of the crisis. Herbaltee is correct that this will likely be a Prophet/Nomad hybrid or cusper (as is Obama) rather than a core prophet like HC. Or it could be a Nomad like George Washington. The best the president elected in 2016 can do is help us muddle through in reasonable shape until then. HC seems admirably suited for that role.
If the current mess continues until the mid-20s, there is no likely solution that we can call progressive that will emerge. Already, the power-elite are solidifying control of the political process, and they mostly control the economic system already. Eight to ten more years of this means completing the currant reengineering of the social contract, or the Millennial generation will be too old to get started afresh. So they will accept their half-loaf grudgingly, and try their best to move ahead. That will leave it to the next Prophet generation to start the push-back that will culminate in the next 4T.

Given the continuous drift to the right, that seems to be the most likely. The alternatives are a crushing economic crisis and an equally dramatic response, or the emergence of a Svengali-like leader who overcomes inertia based solely on charisma. The first scenario is possible. I doubt the second.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#248 at 04-27-2015 01:05 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
If the current mess continues until the mid-20s, there is no likely solution that we can call progressive that will emerge. Already, the power-elite are solidifying control of the political process, and they mostly control the economic system already. Eight to ten more years of this means completing the currant reengineering of the social contract, or the Millennial generation will be too old to get started afresh. So they will accept their half-loaf grudgingly, and try their best to move ahead. That will leave it to the next Prophet generation to start the push-back that will culminate in the next 4T.

Given the continuous drift to the right, that seems to be the most likely. The alternatives are a crushing economic crisis and an equally dramatic response, or the emergence of a Svengali-like leader who overcomes inertia based solely on charisma. The first scenario is possible. I doubt the second.
But they will be dominant in 2024, perhaps as no generation has ever been. Remember what I said; the 4T will not end until 2028, and it will be back-loaded; meaning most of the action toward the end. Until then, we get a gradual ramping-up. So an HC who can get only a few things accomplished in a first term at least would be as good as we can expect. People here and elsewhere continue to refuse to see the crucial need to get rid of gerrymandering. So I see no hope for any substantial progressive achievements for the rest of this decade, at least. I don't see how it could happen; certainly not by electing a progressive president. The millies need to learn their civic duty, which I have spelled out umteen times. So I don't need to keep restating it. Until they learn it, there's no hope for progressive change. Older generations are too conservative.

But the reality is, an Awakening is unlikely in a declining nation. A banana republic cannot produce an Awakening. Without a successful 4T in the 2020s, no hope can be placed in the coming Prophet generation. There will be no "victory children" raised in a prosperous environment, and thus no new prophets, without a 4T victory in the mid to late 2020s. So there is little prospect that we can "leave it" to the next prophet generation. Without a successful 4T, there won't be one. Again, I have already made that point. Please listen.

One thing though that I like; the breather that we have been given in this Indian Autumn, Crisis-High period we are in now. I don't know if I am looking forward entirely to a very disruptive period of change. It depends on how destructive it ends up being. Total war and revolution is never a pleasant prospect. So we might as well enjoy this breather while we have it, and take the time to support what progress and preparation CAN be made in a still-peaceful time. The coming green energy boom should smooth things over a bit as well.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#249 at 04-27-2015 02:52 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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04-27-2015, 02:52 PM #249
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
But they will be dominant in 2024, perhaps as no generation has ever been. Remember what I said; the 4T will not end until 2028, and it will be back-loaded; meaning most of the action toward the end. Until then, we get a gradual ramping-up. So an HC who can get only a few things accomplished in a first term at least would be as good as we can expect. People here and elsewhere continue to refuse to see the crucial need to get rid of gerrymandering. So I see no hope for any substantial progressive achievements for the rest of this decade, at least. I don't see how it could happen; certainly not by electing a progressive president. The millies need to learn their civic duty, which I have spelled out umteen times. So I don't need to keep restating it. Until they learn it, there's no hope for progressive change. Older generations are too conservative.
The last Boomers will start turning 64 in 2024, and the oldest will start turning 81 that year. Such is not typical for a generation with real power. Remember: the last GI President, George H W Bush was defeated in his bid for re-election when he was 64, signaling the end of the power of the GI Generation. Maybe FDR could have kept being re-elected into his seventies had he not died in 1945, but one thing is clear about the Boom generation: it has not developed an FDR and probably won't. The closest that Generation X could get to developing an FDR is Barack Obama, who is clearly not up to the FDR standard. History will likely judge Barack Obama as an above-average President, most likely by analogy to one of the two 60-ish Lost Presidents (Truman and Eisenhower). I can't see Boomers as any more powerful than GI's at the same age at any stage.

But the reality is, an Awakening is unlikely in a declining nation. A banana republic cannot produce an Awakening. Without a successful 4T in the 2020s, no hope can be placed in the coming Prophet generation. There will be no "victory children" raised in a prosperous environment, and thus no new prophets, without a 4T victory in the mid to late 2020s. So there is little prospect that we can "leave it" to the next prophet generation. Without a successful 4T, there won't be one. Again, I have already made that point. Please listen.
An Awakening requires a generation of kids who had been indulged and given a combination of intellectual freedom and relative protection growing up. Children growing up in a wrecked world are compelled to grow up fast and avoid challenging the commands of elders who may have wrecked much of that world. If American cities look much like this in 2025



(Warning: this is copyrighted material from CORBIS, and I use a Fair Use rationale for its use for educational purposes and commentary)

Destruction of Hamburg, 1945
Destroyed buildings in a Hamburg street. Germany, 1945.
Stock Photo ID: HU036635
Date Photographed: ca. 1945
Model Released:
No Release
Property Released:
No Release
Location:
Hamburg, Germany
Credit:
© Hulton-Deutsch Collection/CORBIS
License Type:
Rights Managed (RM)

...and things stay this way for a considerable time because the rest of the world will be too broke to rescue America even if it wanted to do so, then the children of the post-Crisis era might know a hardscrabble existence too long to avoid becoming materialistic and pragmatic. Western Germany, including Hamburg, recovered quickly because of the Marshall Plan. There might be no Marshall Plan at the end of this Crisis; it could be every man for himself -- even if the 'man' is a small child.


One thing though that I like; the breather that we have been given in this Indian Autumn, Crisis-High period we are in now. I don't know if I am looking forward entirely to a very disruptive period of change. It depends on how destructive it ends up being. Total war and revolution is never a pleasant prospect. So we might as well enjoy this breather while we have it, and take the time to support what progress and preparation CAN be made in a still-peaceful time. The coming green energy boom should smooth things over a bit as well.
We can still get through this Crisis reasonably well if we choose appropriate leaders -- leaders without cynicism, leaders with no desire to set scores when they could instead negotiate, leaders with caution but not cowardice, leaders who if given the choice between mercy and cruelty in the wake of victory choose mercy. War may be inevitable with some Evil Entity... let that Evil Entity not be us!

Oh, yes -- we must stop the hostile takeover of American democracy by the Koch brothers and their like.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#250 at 04-27-2015 05:23 PM by Classic-X'er [at joined Sep 2012 #posts 1,789]
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04-27-2015, 05:23 PM #250
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
K-12 schools can sponsor religious activities if they are not government schools. It's clear that kids attending a Catholic school will get plenty of religious education and activity.

Public schools can allow religious-themed activity if such is very individual (lunchtime grace in the school cafeteria done by a student -- no problem) and can allow activities such as the performance of a religiously-themed play or musical work if there is legitimate educational value in it (as in discussing a great masterpiece of art that has religious themes or performing a Bach cantata). Schools can teach about religion if even handed as in history classes, but even that has risks that many teachers avoid. I try to show the relatedness of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam... Jews have the Torah and recognize one God unsuited to any division and have no use for Jesus or Mohammed; Christians add the Gospels to the Torah and see Jesus as the fulfillment of Jewish prophecy as the Son of God -- and Savior but have no use for Mohammed (because of the Book of Mormon I cannot consider Mormons Christians); Muslims have the Koran which extracts from the Torah and the Gospels and worship the same God as Jews, recognize Jesus as the second-greatest of the prophets that include the prophets of Judaism, and recognize Mohammed as the last and greatest Prophet of God.
Public schools aren't owned by the government. Public schools are owned by the citizens of the community in which they're located in.
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