Originally Posted by
Einzige
I have previously argued that the Millennial Saeculum was a Mega-Awakening. I was wrong. I now believe it to have been a Mega-Unraveling, but one taking place in a kind of Giga-High, assuming such things exist.
Accordingly, my outlook for the future - indeed, for the next century and a half - has gone from bleakly optimistic to pitch-black. Yet paradoxically, the immediate future will probably be... alright.
If the Mega-Cycle theory holds good, and we are in an Unraveling-Crisis, then my guess is that nothing substantial will change for the rest of the Millennial Saeculum, and that the next High (in my view, a High-Crisis-High) will begin, not with a bang, but a whimper.
I do not see any equivalent to Hiroshima and Nagasaki on our horizon, no Soviet flag rising over the Reichstag. Very probably we will sort of slide into the High with the current social order essentially unchanged - after all, what is an Unraveling if not a period of essential stasis? Quite probably many of you are going to come to see that there was no real social moment, nothing to point to and say, "see! that's when we transitioned out of the Crisis!", and accordingly come to doubt or disbelieve in the Theory.
That said, I expect things to marginally improve in the twenties and thirties, so that, like an exterior renovation to a building with a decaying superstructure, we come to accept that all is well and we've moved out of the Crisis. This is our "High-Crisis-High", a faint, glowing light in a snowstorm. Very probably the institutional abuses we've come to accept in the past Awakening, Unraveling and Crisis will be normalized; the mood will be claustrophobic and, if not dystopian, then negative-utopian.
The High-Crisis-Awakening (mid-2040s-early 2060s) will hit like a bolt from the blue, as befitting a High-Crisis-Awakening. It will be my Dark Awakening: the recognition that the world is ending will pave the way for a funerary march for modernity. All hitherto existing values - Christianity, Enlightenment rationalism, bourgeois individualism - will have proven themselves false. We will collectively retreat into the occult and into nihilism.
The High-Crisis-Unraveling (mid-2060s-early 2080s?) will be a downward spiral into oblivion. At this point in time, whatever social problems remain left over from the Millennial Saeculum will spill over into a general social deterioration. If the internal combustion engine is still the primary form of powered transportation for the majority of the population - as I expect it to be, economic growth having long ago ceased to bring about a mass proliferation of new technologies - this will probably be the time that the physical limits of oil production begin to be hit. "Peak oil", so long threatened by visionaries in the Millennial Saeculum, becomes a hard and harsh reality, ushering in the
High-Crisis-Crisis (late-2080s-early 2100s): These decades of darkness will sound the death bell for the kind of society established on the American continent in 1776 and in Europe in the 1790s. Take your favorite post-apocalyptic film or novel and apply it - it'll probably fit.
Sounds dire, right? I suppose it is. But that's alright - because, by 2112 or so, humanity will have passed into the greatest period of its existence to date: a Giga-Awakening.
It's difficult for me to imagine an Awakening-High-High. I'm picturing something very bucolic and springlike, but also sparse and spartan - perhaps a depopulation in the last Crisis to a sustainable level of a few billion people.
Anyone wanna take it from there? All I know is that I wish I hadn't been born until 2500 or so, when, by this (admittedly vastly simplified system), humanity should be experiencing an Awakening-Awakening-Awakening. Can anyone imagine that? I would give everything to experience such an Awakening. I imagine it would vastly outstrip even Eric The Green's wildest fantasies.
That's five Awakenings from the next one. Alas, alack.
For now, though, the twenty-first century with be bitter and brutal where it's not stagnant and complacent, and the first half of the twenty-second will be desolate and mournful. Once that Awakening-High-Awakening hits in the 2150s, though, things should be good for a very long time thereafter.