For many years now racial tensions have been building in the US, especially in the past year with Ferguson, Baltimore, and now The Charleston Church Massacre. How will this emerging racial element factor into our current Crisis era/4T, I personally feel like the country is in a pressure cooker, with immense race and class tensions building and building up.

We are at insane levels of political polarization, according to a 2014 pew survey partisan animosity has substantially increased just over the past 10 years: political polarization in the american public

Then there is the now prominent populism that emerged in 2011 with OWS, now many of the presidential candidates are coxing their rhetoric in populist terms, quite a change in my eyes.

In addition to these internal tensions in the US, the global stage looks increasingly scarier by the year, the whole global order created after World War 2 seems to be disintegrating before our very eyes, the Middle East is in complete disarray, relations between the US, Russia, and China seem tense and uneasy.

Prediction: nobody wins, the 1T is a wild west show caught in a deflationary spiral. In other words, hard working, lots of fun.

Originally Posted by Emman85

For many years now racial tensions have been building in the US, especially in the past year with Ferguson, Baltimore, and now The Charleston Church Massacre. How will this emerging racial element factor into our current Crisis era/4T, I personally feel like the country is in a pressure cooker, with immense race and class tensions building and building up.

We are at insane levels of political polarization, according to a 2014 pew survey partisan animosity has substantially increased just over the past 10 years: political polarization in the american public

That's right. And the people who say that "the other party is a threat to the nation's well-being" are correct-- if they are Democrats.

The pressure is building, and it will burst in about 5 years. It is naive and dishonest to deny this polarization. It is naive and stupid to blame Boomers for it. There are real issues our country has to deal with: Climate change, inequality, declining middle class, high cost of living, an unjust justice system, poverty, declining infrastructure, threats to liberty, prejudice and intolerance, guns and violence, culture wars. The reason these problems exist is not polarization; the problem lies on one side-- with a faction of our country that is too backward and wedded to old religious and libertarian-economics ideologies. Are we going to deal with real issues, and defeat the old ideologies holding us back, or just bash people we don't like, and choose to do nothing and just complain about polarization instead?

It is a time for decision; to reject and vote out these extreme right-wing ideologies, so that sensible and moderate policies can be developed and implemented to deal with these real issues. Our situation could not be more clear. Nonsense about going beyond red and blue just muddies and befuddles things. Rather than polarization, what the Establishment wants is to propagate this nonsense that there is no clear choice to be made between themselves and progress. Unite and conquer. Befuddle and conquer.

Then there is the now prominent populism that emerged in 2011 with OWS, now many of the presidential candidates are coxing their rhetoric in populist terms, quite a change in my eyes.

That's a good change, and people need to organize, vote and advocate for it, and not just complain about things.

In addition to these internal tensions in the US, the global stage looks increasingly scarier by the year, the whole global order created after World War 2 seems to be disintegrating before our very eyes, the Middle East is in complete disarray, relations between the US, Russia, and China seem tense and uneasy.

People are rising for freedom everywhere, but reactionary forces crush the people, or rush in to increase the chaos. That is exactly what's happening in all these situations. The US can only do so much. It will be a pretty scary time these next 13 years.

Originally Posted by Emman85

For many years now racial tensions have been building in the US, especially in the past year with Ferguson, Baltimore, and now The Charleston Church Massacre. How will this emerging racial element factor into our current Crisis era/4T, I personally feel like the country is in a pressure cooker, with immense race and class tensions building and building up.

We are at insane levels of political polarization, according to a 2014 pew survey partisan animosity has substantially increased just over the past 10 years: political polarization in the american public

Then there is the now prominent populism that emerged in 2011 with OWS, now many of the presidential candidates are coxing their rhetoric in populist terms, quite a change in my eyes.

In addition to these internal tensions in the US, the global stage looks increasingly scarier by the year, the whole global order created after World War 2 seems to be disintegrating before our very eyes, the Middle East is in complete disarray, relations between the US, Russia, and China seem tense and uneasy.

My guess: nothing happens for a while because we have a case of Global Constipation. When that finally breaks loose the action will come pretty fast ... but I don't see it this 4T.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

My guess: nothing happens for a while because we have a case of Global Constipation. When that finally breaks loose the action will come pretty fast ... but I don't see it this 4T.

But that's when things break loose and actions come pretty fast-- in 4Ts. I promise that will happen in the 2020s. Care to bet on it?

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

But that's when things break loose and actions come pretty fast-- in 4Ts. I promise that will happen in the 2020s. Care to bet on it?

Yeah I'm with Eric, I see a great transformation in the 2020s, I don't think this state of extreme polarization, inequality and global instability can last much longer than 5-7 years.

We are in a social moment. And have been since 2008. They only last a decade at most. The last one went from 1967-74 and the one before that from 1929-36. S we are nearing the end of this one. But that doesn't mean that the time after is quiet. Far from it. The time period from 1974-80 set up the Reagan 3T and 1936-41 prepared America for WWII. Things may well break in the early 2020's after a seeming lull. But in what direction they break on these issues is not predetermined.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

We are in a social moment. And have been since 2008. They only last a decade at most. The last one went from 1967-74 and the one before that from 1929-36. S we are nearing the end of this one. But that doesn't mean that the time after is quiet. Far from it. The time period from 1974-80 set up the Reagan 3T and 1936-41 prepared America for WWII. Things may well break in the early 2020's after a seeming lull. But in what direction they break on these issues is not predetermined.

But wasn't the last one from 1967 through 1980(according to Generations) and New Deal/WW2 social moment from 1932-1945, that's more like about 13 years or so.

Originally Posted by Emman85

But wasn't the last one from 1967 through 1980(according to Generations) and New Deal/WW2 social moment from 1932-1945, that's more like about 13 years or so.

I don't have a copy of the book with me, but as I recall it the social moment begins fairly early on in 2T and 4T's. It tends to be a time of great upheaval and relatively rapid change. It uses so much energy that after it disrupts the old order the rest of the 2T or 4T is spent building the new way.

And here I have to add that as a resident of South Carolina I never thought I'd hear a sitting governor call for the removal of the Confederate Battle Flag from the State Grounds. It happened today. Now whether it gets taken down soon or not is another thing, but a precedent has been set that will be acted upon at some time. At worst or perhaps least it may make it possible for future GOP candidates for governor to openly state that they are willing to take that flag down. Such was sure political suicide before today. That's what a social moment does to change things.

Good thread BTW. I hope that it has legs.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

I don't have a copy of the book with me, but as I recall it the social moment begins fairly early on in 2T and 4T's. It tends to be a time of great upheaval and relatively rapid change. It uses so much energy that after it disrupts the old order the rest of the 2T or 4T is spent building the new way.

And here I have to add that as a resident of South Carolina I never thought I'd hear a sitting governor call for the removal of the Confederate Battle Flag from the State Grounds. It happened today. Now whether it gets taken down soon or not is another thing, but a precedent has been set that will be acted upon at some time. At worst or perhaps least it may make it possible for future GOP candidates for governor to openly state that they are willing to take that flag down. Such was sure political suicide before today. That's what a social moment does to change things.

Good thread BTW. I hope that it has legs.

Indian-American GOP Governor of the state where the Civil War started says take down the Confederate Flag. Yes, a Social Moment indeed. Pretty soon, when the "git 'er done" Millies really start to arrive in office, you can expect a hell of a lot more apolitical "do what's right" events.

I think as that cameras and social media become more ubiquitous, it's going to force the privileged class to make a decision on what kind of America they want, with that decision coming somewhere along the climax/resolution period. I'm not sure what way it will go. However, I do think that that ubiquity will come across backlash come the next Prophets and 2T, but in what manner is up to a good question.

Originally Posted by Bronco80

I think as that cameras and social media become more ubiquitous, it's going to force the privileged class to make a decision on what kind of America they want, with that decision coming somewhere along the climax/resolution period. I'm not sure what way it will go. However, I do think that that ubiquity will come across backlash come the next Prophets and 2T, but in what manner is up to a good question.

I'm in this camp myself. Even though the imbalances in the current social and economic structures are blatantly obvious, the communal voice of the public is not shouting for solution. So what does that mean? Either things turn quickly in an agreed direction, or stalemate prevents it. I'm not seeing a lot of motion, so I'm still betting on stalemate. I certainly hope this is will not still be the case when the 2T arrives.

If one were to stipulate that polarization by whatever etiology is a destructive force in our society, then ...

It would make sense for us lefties and them righties to look for areas of shared concerns, and then, in good faith, to seek out ways to come together on some number of important issues and actually seek solutions.

This would mean that cogent arguments, well articulated and substantiated by either a rightie or a leftie would end up convincing the other.

To that, I ask all of us ... how many folks belonging to the opposite political pole have you EVER converted? Bet it's damn close to zero.

Which shrieks out the question ... What good is all this talk, all this controversy, all this back-and-forth?

Originally Posted by TnT

If one were to stipulate that polarization by whatever etiology is a destructive force in our society, then ...

It would make sense for us lefties and them righties to look for areas of shared concerns, and then, in good faith, to seek out ways to come together on some number of important issues and actually seek solutions.

This would mean that cogent arguments, well articulated and substantiated by either a rightie or a leftie would end up convincing the other.

To that, I ask all of us ... how many folks belonging to the opposite political pole have you EVER converted? Bet it's damn close to zero.

Which shrieks out the question ... What good is all this talk, all this controversy, all this back-and-forth?

This is sad but true, at least for now. Arguments that attempt to challenge the Upton Sinclair standard (i.e. people believe what their livelihoods dictate) fall on deaf ears. Add to that, the issue of simple cognitive dissonance, and those arguments have no fertile ground to grow. That they are totally ignored
doesn't mean they aren't heard.

So time passes and some traumatic event occurs that directly challenges some cherished beliefs. That's the opportunity window for those previously ignore arguments to seep through. That's not much in the way of consolation, but it's about all I've got.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

The pressure is building, and it will burst in about 5 years.

If my prediction comes true this year, this sounds about right. Who you see winning in 2016, Clinton or the Republican nominee?

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

My guess: nothing happens for a while because we have a case of Global Constipation. When that finally breaks loose the action will come pretty fast ... but I don't see it this 4T.

I think you may. The last 4T was associated with a capitalist crisis. Back then the authorities did not know how to deal with it, now they do. All that is required is a reason to do it. The last time capitalists started seeing the effects about a decade after it first developed. That would be about now. How long the effects take to grow and metasize will effect the timing of action, but it should be all over in 20 years at the longest.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

I think you may. The last 4T was associated with a capitalist crisis. Back then the authorities did not know how to deal with it, now they do. All that is required is a reason to do it. The last time capitalists started seeing the effects about a decade after it first developed. That would be about now. How long the effects take to grow and metasize will effect the timing of action, but it should be all over in 20 years at the longest.

I would like to be pleasantly surprised, so I'm lobbying for your optimistic scenario. The strongest restraint isn't lack of knowledge. It's lack of will. The economic elites see no benefit to them from a replay of the last 4T, and they actually seem to understand what triggers a response. They may not know how to stop it entirely, but they've been very successful at applying a Jake brake to the political process, slowing things to a crawl. I don't see the courts getting involved, so what moves the process? The young and poor are uninvolved, intellectual elites are split and polarized. Other than a shock or some sort, I don't see it.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

I think you may. The last 4T was associated with a capitalist crisis. Back then the authorities did not know how to deal with it, now they do. All that is required is a reason to do it. The last time capitalists started seeing the effects about a decade after it first developed. That would be about now. How long the effects take to grow and metasize will effect the timing of action, but it should be all over in 20 years at the longest.

The capitalist elite allowed Barack Obama to rescue the banks as Herbert Hoover never did. For a short time the President was a hero. But in rescuing the banking system he also rescued people who would impose a New Peonage if they could get away with it. In the 1930s the capitalist class was so concerned with the survival of business entities existing on a thread that those entities could not buy the political process. This time those (or analogous) entities have successfully bought the political process.

Such is the difference between a strong FDR with nearly dictatorial powers and a President who can get away with nothing. We are in a Crisis, and it can still be resolved in at least two ways. One is a solution of progress in which all can share in a great cornucopia. The other is a solution of 95% of the people suffering for a hereditary elite that fosters infantile egoism among its kids who monopolize all desirable positions (not only management but also the professions, academia, and mid-to-high levels of government service) and treat anyone who has endured any hardships (sign of 'class' inferiority) as someone to remain a victim of the social order and that anyone who shows dissent (like even implicit disdain of the lies offered as unqualified truth and shibboleths of patriotism). The former is a successful solution. The second is a failure that requires rectification in the next Crisis Era, perhaps as happened in France in 1789, Russia in 1917, or China in 1949. Or perhaps Germany and Japan in 1945.

A failed solution to the Crisis of 2020 could easily set up a catastrophe as the next Crisis Era appears around the year 2100. A good solution might give a muted Crisis much like what I thought would happen if the Indian Summer of Bill Clinton remained in effect.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

If my prediction comes true this year, this sounds about right. Who you see winning in 2016, Clinton or the Republican nominee?

It will be close. Hillary Clinton has a weak chart, relatively speaking (this should come as no surprise), and so a candidate with a well-endowed chart could beat her. Bush and Trump have the best charts. But cosmic indicators cannot predict everything, or make a silk purse out of a sows ear, or a president out of a clown. All the Republican candidates, and especially Bush and Trump, have high negatives among the people. Another Bush presidency has limited appeal, to say the least. And the indicator I use (new moon before election; highest Asc. and Desc. ruler position) of which party wins the election (challenger or party-in-power) has a great track record, and it points to the party in power winning the White House in 2016 and 2020. That's the Democrats.

What will happen in 2024 is going to be interesting. The Millennials will have their maximum influence, if they use it. The demographics favor more-liberal candidates, and the mood of change will be seriously ramping up throughout the 2020s to a climax from 2025 to 2028. But the indicator shows a change in power in Nov. 2024. So could this be a third party or independent? We'll have to see the merits of the candidates too, to say for sure. Corey Booker is one I am looking at who could have a chance to win despite the odds against the party in power in 2024.

The possibility of major or global war, and/or a threat to the existence of the USA internally or externally, is very much on the table as we face the Crisis climax in the mid-2020s, right on schedule if the cosmic cycles hold. Whoever wins the presidency in Nov.2024 will have that possibility on his or her table. Best wishes to him or her!

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I would like to be pleasantly surprised, so I'm lobbying for your optimistic scenario. The strongest restraint isn't lack of knowledge. It's lack of will. The economic elites see no benefit to them from a replay of the last 4T, and they actually seem to understand what triggers a response.

They (the 1920's elites) could see no benefit to them last time either, which is why they did not pursue one. Remember, right now were are still in the 1920's on the secular cycle timeline (which is where that prediction comes from). On the other last time the 1920's was a 3T, this time it is a 4T, so that is a different twist. Also last time the 1920's were Kondratiev fall, this time we are in winter. Recall Twain, history does not repeat.

So while there was only one 1929 last time, this time there will be (at least) three. The first was 2000, when the secular bull market ended and I predicted the start of the 4T in the near future. But there was not economy outfall, the Fed simply diverted investment from the collapsing stock market to the still-rising real estate market. Basically they swapped a bubble in stocks for one in housing.

The second one was 2008. The collapse of the real estate bubble cratered the stock market and caused a deep recession. Very vigorous efforts by the Fed, and the government moderated the collapse and things were restored to normalcy for those who matter. Had a big league Republican economist given Hoover and the New York Fed the advice dispensed by Milton Friedman in his Monetary History then Hoover would have taken the country off gold as FDR did and the outcome in the 1930's would have been closer to what we have seen rather than what happened. (It would still have been worse as the "shock absorbers" present today would not be their, figure maybe 15-20% peak unemployment with it getting down to about 7-8% by 1939).

So now the authorties have restored 1920's prosperity as far as elites are concerned and the market is again reaching the levels of 1929 and 2000 (and estate in 2005-6). This bubble will eventually pop. Then the authorities will try to fixes things so the elite party can continue. But notice the trend. It was really easy to do this in 2000. Much harder in 2008. Maybe too hard in the next one? And then the elites will be where Hoover was in 1931, the economy crashing all around him and nobody knows what the hell is going on. Or, maybe they patch it together, and we have to wait for the next Juglar downturn.

All this is very speculative right now. We have only had one financial crisis so far. The smart people believe it was a one-off. And they will believe this until after it happens again. And even then many will still believe it to be either a fluke or the new normal. Nobody will think it is a problem until things don't go back to normal for elites. I don't think even the most Randian of elites wants to see bread riots so the welfare system will be maintained. There won't be any uprising and the poor won't vote either. It just that Americans who vote will start to feel some fear of the unknown. And some influentials who believe they have a good handle on how things work will be willing to support rising figures like a neo-Eugene Debs, neo-Nathan Forest, or neo-Malcom X. There will be an atmosphere of unease amongst the powerful, which will lead them to support somebody like FDR, a pragmatist willing to take heterodox advisors seriously.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

The other is a solution of 95% of the people suffering for a hereditary elite ...

This scenario sounds great for the 5%. Since it is they who set policy in state societies this should have been what happened last 4T. But it didn't. Why? That is what I have been looking into.

The answer I have tentatively reached is it DID happen last time. What the elites got from FDR was really a good outcome for them, better than what their counterparts got in Russia, Germany or even Britain. And I expect something similar to happen this time too. The reason it feels like there is no hope is because so far everything is still going their way. If it continues to do so, then there aren't any turnings. This inequality cycle will last 150 years like the last one and the corrective is still half a century in the future.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

This scenario sounds great for the 5%. Since it is they who set policy in state societies this should have been what happened last 4T. But it didn't. Why? That is what I have been looking into.

The answer I have tentatively reached is it DID happen last time. What the elites got from FDR was really a good outcome for them, better than what their counterparts got in Russia, Germany or even Britain. And I expect something similar to happen this time too. The reason it feels like there is no hope is because so far everything is still going their way. If it continues to do so, then there aren't any turnings. This inequality cycle will last 150 years like the last one and the corrective is still half a century in the future.

Or will never happen? Did such a corrective ever happen before?

The way this works was well documented by S&H, and is as follows:

The polarization increases throughout the fourth turning /
generational Crisis era, until the Regeneracy occurs. At that time,
the population unifies behind the government. As the crisis war
progresses, both sides realize how everything they used to say was
completely wrong, and by the time of the crisis climax, both sides are
unified. After that, differences appear and grow for decades, until a
new Crisis era, new Regeneracy, and new Crisis war.

After WW II, both Democrats and Republicans were unified behind the
Truman Doctrine, but by the 60s it was being severely criticized, and
today it's called neo-conservatism, and is rejected by almost
everyone.

Today, the left becomes more and more loony and criminal every day,
and the right becomes more and more loony and criminal every day.
There's not much left besides the loony left and the loony right, each
making moronic criticisms of the other sides' moronic claims.

As soon as the first nuclear ballistic missile strikes an American
city, the Regeneracy, then the loony left and the loony right will
forget all the nonsense, and unite for their survival.

It's completely irrelevant who's elected in 2016.

Yes, its called The Great Compression

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The way this works was well documented by S&H, and is as follows:

The polarization increases throughout the fourth turning /
generational Crisis era, until the Regeneracy occurs. At that time,
the population unifies behind the government. As the crisis war
progresses, both sides realize how everything they used to say was
completely wrong, and by the time of the crisis climax, both sides are
unified. After that, differences appear and grow for decades, until a
new Crisis era, new Regeneracy, and new Crisis war.

In a 3T people on a boat taking on water point fingers at each other for the leak. In a 4T they realize that they need to do something about the incoming water.

After WW II, both Democrats and Republicans were unified behind the
Truman Doctrine, but by the 60s it was being severely criticized, and
today it's called neo-conservatism, and is rejected by almost
everyone.

No, that was anti-communism. The neo-conservatives may now see "radical Islam" as the sort of enemy that Communism once was, but such does not recognize the difference between a political order based largely upon its economic ideology and one based upon religious values.

Today, the left becomes more and more loony and criminal every day,
and the right becomes more and more loony and criminal every day.
There's not much left besides the loony left and the loony right, each
making moronic criticisms of the other sides' moronic claims.

The "Left"? Not much remains of either the Old Commie Left or the "New" Left of the 1960s and 1970s. America has made a huge shift in the political spectrum so that the Democratic Party has become largely a conservative party with a liberal wing while the Republican Party has drifted toward an ideology of religious fundamentalism, class privilege, sexual repression, and militarism. People who believe what the John Birch Society believed in the 1960s and 1970s are now part of the mainstream of the Republican Party instead of the pariahs that they used to be.

As soon as the first nuclear ballistic missile strikes an American
city, the Regeneracy, then the loony left and the loony right will
forget all the nonsense, and unite for their survival.

Neither the Loony Left nor the Loony Right will unite with the rest of America to achieve anything.

It's completely irrelevant who's elected in 2016.

Quality will matter.