Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Bernie 4 Prez anybody? - Page 16







Post#376 at 07-29-2015 01:57 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-29-2015, 01:57 PM #376
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
Dear god I hope so. The last thing we need is a Clintoon. Hillary should not be anointed president because that is what it will be if it is brother Jeb. No more dynasties thank you. We seriously need a Constitutional amendment.
No. We need a much larger array of quality voters. There should be a rule that you can't vote for an office you can't define in the most basic of terms, but that has no chance of ever happening.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#377 at 07-29-2015 02:25 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-29-2015, 02:25 PM #377
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
... I would argue that unless we find a regeneracy very soon that the 4T will set us up for a saeculum of one crisis after an other...
This is highly unlikely. A 1T arrives because a) crisis resolution is achieved, whatever that may mean for the saeculum in question, or b) exhaustion finally triumphs, and the muddled middle pushes the ideologues to the periphery. Option 'b' is still very possible. If so, then the 1T will be far less fulfilling than the last several, and next 2T will be explosive right out of the chute - but it will be an awakening. Judging by the last 2T, it will not be a good time to be a Civic.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#378 at 07-29-2015 02:32 PM by B Butler [at joined Nov 2011 #posts 2,329]
---
07-29-2015, 02:32 PM #378
Join Date
Nov 2011
Posts
2,329

Left Arrow Love In Not

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
This is highly unlikely. A 1T arrives because a) crisis resolution is achieved, whatever that may mean for the saeculum in question, or b) exhaustion finally triumphs, and the muddled middle pushes the ideologues to the periphery. Option 'b' is still very possible. If so, then the 1T will be far less fulfilling than the last several, and next 2T will be explosive right out of the chute - but it will be an awakening. Judging by the last 2T, it will not be a good time to be a Civic.
Agreed on the bad time to be a Civic part. If we wimp out with plan 'b', if the working classes are still schrod, if it is no longer possible to deny global warming, the 1960s might look like a love in in comparison.







Post#379 at 07-29-2015 02:56 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-29-2015, 02:56 PM #379
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
-- we got two excellent years out of Barack Obama and wasted the other six.
As usual, I'm in general agreement with what you wrote but would like to point out this as an example of where I'm coming from.

I feel just having Obama in for 8 years as opposed to a Koch puppet was an enormous achievement given the dire consequences of that alternative scenario. Just imagine what the SCOTUS would look like today if McCain/Palin had made the nominations. In the next 4-8 year cycle, the choices for SCOTUS and the choices that SCOTUS makes will far outlive most of the people on this forum.

With a good 2016 outcome, there are chances for incremental changes that are going to have enormous amplifications, including the 2021 re-districting. With hard work, there is a chance to make this 200+ year old system actually work for people - and a lot of the hard lifting is in just the next 400 days.

When I see Progressives wringing their hands over whether Clinton is progressive enough, hoping for another Savior, waiting on Constitutional conventions or even bloody class revolution, etc. etc, I don't just see perfection-being-the-enemy-of-the-good, I see excuses for laziness and a big dash of undeserved self-righteousness.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

Its not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Its much more akin to printing money. - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#380 at 07-29-2015 03:03 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-29-2015, 03:03 PM #380
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
PW,

Come on, I don't even identify as left-wing and I support most of those...
Show me a GOP contender who does support any of that.

I think you may have a fundamental misunderstanding of what today's GOP considers Left wing.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

Its not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Its much more akin to printing money. - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#381 at 07-29-2015 03:15 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 03:15 PM #381
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Show me a GOP contender who does support any of that.

I think you may have a fundamental misunderstanding of what today's GOP considers Left wing.
Which GOP? The meatloaf-loving proles rooting for Trump? The political class utterly unable to stop him? The gay-marriage supporting, pot legalizing, prison reform advocating Koch brothers?

I think you are under the misunderstanding that because I follow politics and current events that I am particularly invested in the success or failure of either of the two major coalitions.







Post#382 at 07-29-2015 03:44 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
---
07-29-2015, 03:44 PM #382
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Kalamazoo MI
Posts
4,501

Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
Africans are so genetically diverse because they are the original people.
Precisely, which is why a statement about "African facial structure" (as opposed to non African facial structure) makes so sense. Basically "African facial structure" is equivalent to "human facial structure", in which case you were argued that the ancient Eqyptians were human and not space aliens. Besides von Daniken, who believes this?







Post#383 at 07-29-2015 03:52 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-29-2015, 03:52 PM #383
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Yeah, the present party system is breaking down, with the Republicans looking increasingly unviable. On the other hand, the Republicans are still in a better position than the Democrats were starting out the Great Power Saeculum. Your scenario could very play out that way if something crazy happens, but I think it more likely that as the "red" Silents and Boomers die off the Republican party nationwide might start to look much more like the Republican party in deep "blue" states now. In which case we could see a moderate Republican president in the '30s followed by the gradual defection of a lot of the middle classes from an increasingly left wing Democratic party as they undergo their own demographic transition. Alternatively, it's worthwhile to point out that ideology is not the only way that the two parties can polarize, and historically neither party could really be described as left or right so much as they were a gallimaufry of sectional and ethnic interests. As an example of how this could play out, you could see identity politics start to polarize the parties along ethnic lines over the course of the next saeculum, with one probably holding the majority of white and whiteish people and the other the rising minority-majority demographics. In this case, you could see the parties each holding both conservative and liberal members, which (ugly racial conflict aside), might even be more conducive to the sorts of log-rolling the American political system is historically built on.

Or there could be electoral reforms that open the way for a multiparty system. Lots of ways this could play out, given the (in my mind entirely reasonable) assumption that the Republican party as is won't last and the present Democratic coalition will inevitably fracture as a result.
I agree with most of this, but let's be honest about one thing. The GOP has been the business party from its inception. I don't see that changing. On the other hand, the Dems have been all over the board, so they are more prone to move into a niche if it's empty. I doubt the GOP will be a less conservative party than the Dems, but the two may be very similar, but focused on a different set of voters as you noted.

The Blue social paradigm seems set in rapidly drying concrete, so that leaves economic and international policy in play. If the GOP becomes the de facto neoliberal party, then the Dems can be me-to neoliberals with a different international agenda on war and diplomacy or they can set a different agenda entirely. It's hard to know which. A lot may ride on how loyal the non-elite and non-white voting bloc hang with the Dems, and whether the business elite see international activism a net plus to them. In any case, I don't see the Dems displacing the GOP from their position supporting the haves.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#384 at 07-29-2015 03:57 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
---
07-29-2015, 03:57 PM #384
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Kalamazoo MI
Posts
4,501

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Ybut as the demographics continue to shift and the Republicans as is become much less of a threat
Why do you assume that Republicans are going to become less of a threat? Right now they control the Legislature, the economy and the majority of state government. White voters will remain a majority for the rest of my life. Each decade, the GOP peels more and more white voters away from the Demographic coalition. As minorities rise white Democrats will contract to the 20% of the white population who is liberal, while the conservative fraction of minorities will rise. For a long time the rise in non-conservative minorities will be offset by the increasing tendency of non-liberal white to move to the GOP. If you are white, you could be one of them.
Last edited by Mikebert; 07-29-2015 at 04:00 PM.







Post#385 at 07-29-2015 04:03 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 04:03 PM #385
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Yes, but you're missing the point that a fair chunk of the base and all the leadership of the Dems are haves as well. Look at you, look at Mike, look at PW. The wedge social issues that the GOP used to peel off the white working class (with few exceptions) eventually drove off a big piece of the middle classes that used to be their core voters. Eliminate those issues with a blue victory and the death of the old fogies driving things in the GOP now, and suddenly the alliance of white gentry and urban populations being gentrified out of their homes makes less sense. With changing demographics and the loss of a common enemy there's room for the growth of a party or faction to the present Overton Window's left.







Post#386 at 07-29-2015 04:12 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 04:12 PM #386
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Goddamn it, that was for M &L.

Mikebert,

That's basically what I've been arguing, that the Republican party is not going to disappear, even though the Christian right is fading, and will instead become the party of the bulk of the white population. Yes, I know it is already, but as most of the 90s culture war issues resolve in the liberal's favor it will include more and more of the people who don't identify with the"far left", such as it is.







Post#387 at 07-29-2015 04:28 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
---
07-29-2015, 04:28 PM #387
Join Date
May 2005
Location
"Michigrim"
Posts
15,014

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Yeah, the present party system is breaking down, with the Republicans looking increasingly unviable. On the other hand, the Republicans are still in a better position than the Democrats were starting out the Great Power Saeculum.

Everything that could have gone wrong for the GOP from 1929 to 1945 (except for an Axis victory) went wrong. Republicans got the Great Depression pinned on them, and they could never live that down until they started carping about the slowness of the postwar transition from a wartime economy to a peacetime economy.

(The) scenario (of the demise of the Republican Party as it now exists) could very play out that way if something crazy happens, but I think it more likely that as the "red" Silents and Boomers die off the Republican party nationwide might start to look much more like the Republican party in deep "blue" states now.
The Republican Party is as right-wing in Michigan as it is in Oklahoma. It shows no sign of trending away from the Hard Right.

In which case we could see a moderate Republican president in the '30s followed by the gradual defection of a lot of the middle classes from an increasingly left wing Democratic party as they undergo their own demographic transition. Alternatively, it's worthwhile to point out that ideology is not the only way that the two parties can polarize, and historically neither party could really be described as left or right so much as they were a gallimaufry of sectional and ethnic interests. As an example of how this could play out, you could see identity politics start to polarize the parties along ethnic lines over the course of the next saeculum, with one probably holding the majority of white and whiteish people and the other the rising minority-majority demographics. In this case, you could see the parties each holding both conservative and liberal members, which (ugly racial conflict aside), might even be more conducive to the sorts of log-rolling the American political system is historically built on.
Reversion to pre-1980 norms in American politics with more collegiality and less polarization would make sense. That said, we could have a very rough journey in that direction, one with abrupt changes in political life. Drastic change in the political process is much more likely in a 4T than in any other time.

Or there could be electoral reforms that open the way for a multiparty system. Lots of ways this could play out, given the (in my mind entirely reasonable) assumption that the Republican party as is won't last and the present Democratic coalition will inevitably fracture as a result.
Such would require the transformation of our political system from a Presidential system to a parliamentary system. It would also indicate gross failure of the system -- a President going despotic, a military coup, or some other political catastrophe with no precedent in America.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters







Post#388 at 07-29-2015 04:52 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 04:52 PM #388
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

PB,

It is difficult to answer line by line on a mobile. So, I see where the confusion lies. I meant more the sorts of Republicans who exist in the NE or the Coastal West. Sorry, I forgot how provincial some of my audience was.

I fully expect a rough transition, and I still anticipate the liberals to be in the drivers seat for the rest of the turning. We were discussing what the party system would look like going into the next couple of turnings.

As for changes to the Constitutional order, I've already stated that I find them extremely unlikely this turning and am confused why they keep coming up. Try and keep up.







Post#389 at 07-29-2015 05:13 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-29-2015, 05:13 PM #389
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
...

I think you are under the misunderstanding that because I follow politics and current events that I am particularly invested in the success or failure of either of the two major coalitions.
A lack of investment is often at the source of gross misunderstandings.

But entertainment can be found at all levels of depth - just depends on the person. To each his own. Carry on.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

Its not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Its much more akin to printing money. - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#390 at 07-29-2015 05:24 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 05:24 PM #390
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

As is being overinvested in a particular outcome. See the idiots who were genuinely surprised by Romney losing for an example. But thanks for the endorsement. As for you, sir, carry on as well. After all, if not for other people's investment, I'd have nothing to watch.







Post#391 at 07-29-2015 05:33 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-29-2015, 05:33 PM #391
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Goddamn it, that was for M &L.

Mikebert,

That's basically what I've been arguing, that the Republican party is not going to disappear, even though the Christian right is fading, and will instead become the party of the bulk of the white population. Yes, I know it is already, but as most of the 90s culture war issues resolve in the liberal's favor it will include more and more of the people who don't identify with the"far left", such as it is.
This thesis of the racial divide of parties coming to predominate as culture issues fade (due to Progressive wins) is void of any consideration of the economic factors at play of increasing income disparity and middle class destruction. It also assumes the continuing stupidity of lower income Whites to remain sheeple and vote against their own self-interest. If that includes people staying home from a sense that it makes no difference, you may just be correct.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

Its not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. Its much more akin to printing money. - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#392 at 07-29-2015 05:47 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 05:47 PM #392
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Two things:

1. Did I mention I expect the Democrats to be in the drivers seat through the end of the 4T? I did. While some of those issues have to do with global factors and not just domestic policy, I fully expect whatever new set of economic policies we have by the end of the 4T to largely be pushed through by Dems. Again, I at least was talking about the party system going forward, not what is happening right now.

2. As much as I dislike the present system and want to see it change, the status quo is not really bad for me personally.







Post#393 at 07-29-2015 07:47 PM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,897]
---
07-29-2015, 07:47 PM #393
Join Date
Jun 2012
Posts
2,897

Quote Originally Posted by Bronco80 View Post
I came here to post the same thing that Jordan did. Maybe Kinser can set me straight, but between that and his screwup at Netroots Nation it seems that Sanders really needs to work more on the racial aspects of his campaign.
Sanders has not only racial but sectional problems. However, it is still early and he can solve them before the primary if he's serious. If he isn't, he won't fix those problems.







Post#394 at 07-29-2015 07:57 PM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,897]
---
07-29-2015, 07:57 PM #394
Join Date
Jun 2012
Posts
2,897

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
No. We need a much larger array of quality voters. There should be a rule that you can't vote for an office you can't define in the most basic of terms, but that has no chance of ever happening.
We had literacy tests at one point. The idea is that it kept us poor illiterate Negros from voting. The problem is we need more quality 'leaders' but there is little chance of that happening so long as we set up a dynasty system.

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
This is highly unlikely. A 1T arrives because a) crisis resolution is achieved, whatever that may mean for the saeculum in question, or b) exhaustion finally triumphs, and the muddled middle pushes the ideologues to the periphery. Option 'b' is still very possible. If so, then the 1T will be far less fulfilling than the last several, and next 2T will be explosive right out of the chute - but it will be an awakening. Judging by the last 2T, it will not be a good time to be a Civic.
Would not an explosive 2T itself be part of that Saeculum of Crisis? Will it be a bad time to be a civic? Absolutely. It will likely be a bad time to be a prophet too.







Post#395 at 07-29-2015 09:46 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-29-2015, 09:46 PM #395
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
Sanders has not only racial but sectional problems. However, it is still early and he can solve them before the primary if he's serious. If he isn't, he won't fix those problems.
Spend a minute or two thinking about his Presidency. He's an outsider in the true sense of the word. The last one of those we had was Jimmy Carter, and Carter struggled all the way through. I'll vote for him, but he's not going to win. At this point, I'm not sure who will. Hillary is already fading, and the clown car is stuffed with, well, clowns. Other than The only other real pro in the game is Martin O'Malley, and he isn't gaining any traction.

This may be really messy ... but entertaining.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#396 at 07-29-2015 09:58 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-29-2015, 09:58 PM #396
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
We had literacy tests at one point. The idea is that it kept us poor illiterate Negros from voting. The problem is we need more quality 'leaders' but there is little chance of that happening so long as we set up a dynasty system.
I actually took one of those literacy tests, and they were hard for anyone that wasn't a wonk. Sample question: In the Constitution, the size of the capital district is defined as what size? This was fill-in-the-blank, so you had better know. I should be OK to ask someone what a Senator is, but it may be ripe for abuse so probably not. Still, it rankles.

Quote Originally Posted by Kinser ...
Would not an explosive 2T itself be part of that Saeculum of Crisis? Will it be a bad time to be a civic? Absolutely. It will likely be a bad time to be a prophet too.
I might be OK agreeing to crisis with a small "c", but a Crisis ... no. Awakenings are very different. They're, "Wake up!", rather than "Put'em up!", and a great time to be a Prophet ... unless you're stuck playing Casandra, of course. Prophets don't deal well with futility.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#397 at 07-29-2015 10:26 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-29-2015, 10:26 PM #397
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

Well, the English Civil War/Thirty Year's War was an Awakening, and that wasn't a great time to be anybody. Well, unless you were a talented and unscrupulous murderer, in which case you could write your own ticket.

The stuff going on with Syria in the Middle East is thought by many here to be an Awakening as well.







Post#398 at 07-30-2015 12:47 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
---
07-30-2015, 12:47 AM #398
Join Date
Mar 2013
Posts
3,587

On the subject of electoral reforms, I had a whimsical notion today. So, I was finishing up reading The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan, who used to work for Stratfor. Like Stratfor's George Friedman, the book was about predictions based upon geopolitics, which is basically the role of geography in determining whether and how states function. It's rather a mediocre book, and if you're interested in that sort of thing George Friedman's stuff is better, replete with geographic errors both minor and major, which is not really something you should see in a book about the determining power of geography in human affairs. For instance, it lists the Aegean Sea as being to the South East of the Sea of Marmara, control of Bulgaria and Romania as consolidating the Eastern half of the Black Sea, Baton Rouge as being on the Gulf Coast, and so on. These are annoying, but relatively minor. On the other hand, he was also making points about the inherent poverty of the North China Plain versus that of the states on the North European Plain on account of the former being dependent on rice agriculture versus wheat, which is complete nonsense, they don't grow much rice there at all. Or how Japan is an inherently insecure industrial power because of its dependence of foreign supplies of raw materials, which is accurate enough, but then mentions that Japan requires foreign supplies of rice as well, despite mentioning in the previous sentence that it is largely self-sufficient in rice as opposed to other grains. So, like I said, interesting topics, mediocre book.

But one of the things that was intriguing was his point on the growing demographic and financial mismatch versus oil producing Alberta versus the other provinces, and the resulting political tensions. He lists several facts and figures on the subject, which I will not bother reproducing here, and uses these as well as geographic arguments (which were reasonably cogent) to postulate a successful separatist movement in Alberta in the near future. He then goes on to show how this state would not be viable as an independent country, but would be well served by joining the US. The loss of Alberta would in turn cripple Canada by reducing the major contributor to Canadian government finances, as well as severing the main east-west link (the territories having little infrastructure to speak of) between BC and the rest of Canada, leading the country to break apart.

Now, like I said, a lot of his stuff was quite questionable, and I doubt whether this is really all that plausible. OTOH, in the spirit of the parallels of today to the Glorious Revolution that many on this board are fond of, it is entertaining to consider a scenario where Canada did break apart in the 20s due to the secession of a province like Alberta or Quebec (which would sever the Maritime provinces from the rest of the country), and all or at least many of the provinces applied to join the US. Particularly when you consider that Puerto Rico is about to default on its debts, more Puerto Ricans live on the mainland than the island, and sentiment has recently shifted towards applying for statehood versus independence. In this scenario, the addition of Puerto Rico sets the precedent that the US can still expand, and the ensuing Constitutional questions* surrounding representation and the like with the accession of the Canadian provinces, as well as the shift in voting power as these places become first territories than states, causes a radical reform in US governance. In effect, by breaking apart, the Canadians would remake the US in their image.

Made me laugh.

EDIT: Since I have made idiosyncratic references to the Glorious Revolution that have not been readily apparent to be people here before, the idea is that just as England finally took over from Holland after it was effectively conquered by the Dutch ruler (yes, yes, it's a little more complicated than that), Canada could effectively "conquer" the United States by falling apart. Don't think about it too hard.

*Which apparently don't exist because I went back and checked and the apportionment amendment was never passed and the present size is fixed by congressional acts. I can't fucking win tonight.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 07-30-2015 at 01:23 AM.







Post#399 at 07-30-2015 07:51 AM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,897]
---
07-30-2015, 07:51 AM #399
Join Date
Jun 2012
Posts
2,897

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Spend a minute or two thinking about his Presidency. He's an outsider in the true sense of the word. The last one of those we had was Jimmy Carter, and Carter struggled all the way through. I'll vote for him, but he's not going to win. At this point, I'm not sure who will. Hillary is already fading, and the clown car is stuffed with, well, clowns. Other than The only other real pro in the game is Martin O'Malley, and he isn't gaining any traction.

This may be really messy ... but entertaining.
I have thought about it. I would, however, contend that Jimmy Carter was a dark horse selected by the party bosses on the idea that he was a southerner and that they could hold onto the south. They didn't come 1980 of course. Would Sanders, if elected, have a rough presidency? Probably. Would he likely be a one termer? Most definitely (the presidency has aged Obama considerably, it would likely kill Sanders in the long run). That said, besides O'Malley who like you said isn't getting traction, we are left with Hillary.

Now I'm not saying that the Democrats can't find a dark horse, I just don't look for one. The GOP has Bush, Rand and the clown car; some would argue that Rand belongs in the clown car too--I disagree, I'd happily vote for Rand if Hillary is the Democrat. If it ends up being Bush III vs Clinton II, I may have to sit it out this next round.

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
I actually took one of those literacy tests, and they were hard for anyone that wasn't a wonk. Sample question: In the Constitution, the size of the capital district is defined as what size? This was fill-in-the-blank, so you had better know. I should be OK to ask someone what a Senator is, but it may be ripe for abuse so probably not. Still, it rankles.
Literacy tests can only be used for abuse. The only reason those have ever existed is to disenfranchise those unlikely to vote for the status quo.

I might be OK agreeing to crisis with a small "c", but a Crisis ... no. Awakenings are very different. They're, "Wake up!", rather than "Put'em up!", and a great time to be a Prophet ... unless you're stuck playing Casandra, of course. Prophets don't deal well with futility.
I'm of course speaking of a Mega-Saeculum crisis. You can chose to capitalize how you please. I do notice that Jordan pointed out that some here think that the troubles in the Middle-East may indeed be an Awakening.







Post#400 at 07-30-2015 08:44 AM by David Krein [at Gainesville, Florida joined Jul 2001 #posts 604]
---
07-30-2015, 08:44 AM #400
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Gainesville, Florida
Posts
604

Am I the only one here that thinks a Joe Biden candidacy (with behind-the-scenes White House support) would stir things up in interesting ways on the Democratic side?

Pax,

Dave Krein '42
"The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on; nor all your Piety nor Wit shall lure it back to cancel half a line, Nor all your Tears wash out a word of it." - Omar Khayyam.
-----------------------------------------