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Thread: Who will become the next Gray Champion? - Page 5







Post#101 at 11-08-2015 08:06 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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11-08-2015, 08:06 PM #101
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Mike,

Looks more like the illusion of rigor to me, like performing "technical analysis" on elections.

Kinser,

Am not really back (*which means log off, Jordan!*), just poking my head in. I still have too much stuff to do, RL. But thanks.







Post#102 at 11-09-2015 05:00 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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You guys are funny. Its a myth AND in the 4T book. Both apply.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#103 at 11-09-2015 07:23 PM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,897]
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11-09-2015, 07:23 PM #103
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Quote Originally Posted by millennialX View Post
You guys are funny. Its a myth AND in the 4T book. Both apply.
Excuse me for not seeing the humor here, but the fact of the matter is that it was included in T4T primarily to sell books. The inclusion of a myth for that reason is enough to remove it from more serious study of generational theory.







Post#104 at 11-10-2015 01:08 AM by annla899 [at joined Sep 2008 #posts 2,860]
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11-10-2015, 01:08 AM #104
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Quote Originally Posted by Kinser79 View Post
Excuse me for not seeing the humor here, but the fact of the matter is that it was included in T4T primarily to sell books. The inclusion of a myth for that reason is enough to remove it from more serious study of generational theory.
This is a good example of why literature is not history. Dickens' London was not the historical Victorian London, although it intersected. It was Dickensian; an artist's vision/reconstruction.

I find the notion of a Grey Champion a part of the Judeo-Christian mythos. A desire for a savior to inspire and lead. As I wrote earlier, it makes a metaphor or an abstraction into something literal. It's a fictional character from a Gothic/Romantic writer (Hawthorne). And Kinser, you may be right that it may have been included to appeal to Boomers. Or it may have appealed to the writers themselves.

Whatever.

The problem with the Grey Champion myth is that it can cause people to wait for that savior or to hitch themselves to whomever they believe may be that Grey Champion, or leader or inspiration. Like the Messiah will come. They may believe that someone besides themselves will fix everything, or unite everything, or make everything right, which means they have to do little themselves except wait.







Post#105 at 11-10-2015 01:17 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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11-10-2015, 01:17 AM #105
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That would be unfortunate, but it's also true that leaders are needed, and it's fortunate when a real one comes along. But, maybe we all have the need and potential to be leaders, at least sometimes, for some people.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#106 at 11-10-2015 01:29 AM by Kinser79 [at joined Jun 2012 #posts 2,897]
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Quote Originally Posted by annla899 View Post
The problem with the Grey Champion myth is that it can cause people to wait for that savior or to hitch themselves to whomever they believe may be that Grey Champion, or leader or inspiration. Like the Messiah will come. They may believe that someone besides themselves will fix everything, or unite everything, or make everything right, which means they have to do little themselves except wait.
That is the overt problem with the GC concept. I don't often quote MLK (mostly because I disagree with his tactics) but we must become the leaders we seek. Waiting for a GC is the same thing as waiting for the messiah (if one is a Jew), the Xth Imam (if one is a Muslim) and Jesus' return (if one is a Christian). The myth is so dangerious in my view for two reasons:

1. It appeals to those with a back ground in the Abrahamic faiths (which face it is most people in the West and Middle East);

And

2. Because of that appeal it makes it seem like some savior is going to magically appear and solve the 4T for the population.

Saviors are dangerous, sometimes one gets lucky and has a Churchill or FDR or Lincoln, sometimes one is unlucky and gets a Mussolini, Franco or Hitler. History indicates that populations are more frequently unlucky than they are lucky.







Post#107 at 11-10-2015 10:45 AM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
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11-10-2015, 10:45 AM #107
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Mike,

Looks more like the illusion of rigor to me, like performing "technical analysis" on elections.
The whole S&H corpus is akin to technical analysis of history. So is all big history (e.g. the leadership cycle), which is why the whole enterprise is dimly viewed by most professional historians.

What I proposed is an experiment in history. One can do historical experiments. They are not as powerful as normal experiments because you cannot employ randomization in your experimental design. But its better than nothing. First I show that based on the full set of data next year's election is a tossup. I cited Nate Silver who does this for a living to validate my statement. This is the control.

I then hypothesize that turnings exist and they affect politics. Based on this hypothesis I further propose that 2-term strings formed in 4T's and 2Ts last longer those at other times. In 2016 we have a 2-term string that began in 2008. So the conditions exist for us to do a political experiment. If we be 4T, as all here agree, then a social moment has been applied to this string. This is the experimental treatment.

The application of a social moment should increase the likelihood that the string will continue. If it doesn't the experiment the experiment result is negative. If it does it is positive. This defines the experiment result, it is a binary varaible yes/no. A positive result is not statistically significant by itself (obviously it was 50% likely). I would have to repeat the experiment a dozen times in order to demonstrate that, but we cannot do that.

So I do the same thing with the stock market. In this case the thing being applied is a secular bear market as a specific era in history related to other things. That is, something that has independent existence outside of otherwise random market patterns. Most economists take a dim view on the idea of market cycles for the same reason historians do with big history.

Since 1871 when good market data begin, there have been about 42 bear markets ranging from the frustrating flat market in 1994 as the most mild to the 1929-32 Crash as the most severe. Expressed as Dow points today, these vary from 1500 to 15000. A decline of 10000 or greater has happened twice, in 1929 and in 2007. Two times out 42 is about a 5% probability of one happening for next bear market. But if we look at just bear markets that begin in 4Ts, there are 8 of them, and two of them have been as bad or worse than what I am predicting. That is, if 4Ts are real there may be a 25% probability of what I am predicting will happen. And if you consider that only one of those eight previous 4T bear markets started from a market valuation as high or higher than we have today, and that one was 1929, then maybe its not so unlikely after all. But this conclusion is based ion assuming that my valuation tool and the idea of turnings is valid. If they are what I predict may actually be fairly likely. But if both concepts are invalid, then it is 95% probable that what I predict will not happen. And it is even more unlikely that both this prediction and a Clinton victory comes true. If this actually happens I will be writing the sequel to Stock Cycles near the end of this secular beat market with the expectation that it will sell even more copies than I did with the original.
Last edited by Mikebert; 11-10-2015 at 06:10 PM.
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