Recently I’ve been looking at historic population projections, it becomes very clear that they are usually useless at projection populations 50 years out.

"A Nation of Elders in the Making" by Warren S. Thompson and P.K. Whelpton, The American Mercury, April 1930

IN 1790, one hundred and forty years ago, we took our first national census.At that time we had a population of 3,919,114. This in itself represented a very rapid growth in the century and threequarters during which white settlement had been going on. But it seems small in comparison with the 31,000,000 we had in i860 at the outbreak of the Civil War. During this period of seventy years our population doubled every twenty-three years and was just about eight times as large in i860 as it had been in 1790.

By the time this year's census is taken, at the end of the second seventy-year period of our census taking, our population will have grown to 1x0,000,000. This is about four times its size seventy years ago, but it represents a rate of growth somewhat less than one-half that of the earlier period. There can be no doubt that during the next seventy-year period, 1930
to 2.000, our rate of growth will still further decline.

Even our vociferous professional boosters seem to be convinced of this, for we find them talking of no more than 140,000,000 or Z5o,ooo,ooo people in the year 1000. They apparently feel that they are being extremely conservative when they say that our population will double only once in the next seventy years. This is only onethird the rate of increase of the last seventy years and surely, they say, we should attain this figure, even with immigration restricted.

Forecasts of the population of the United States, 1945-1975


This one had the US population peeking at 164 million in 1990

Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex, and Color to 1990

Published in 1967

Population of the United States: Trends and Prospects, 1950-1990

From 1974

Originally Posted by Dan '82

Recently I’ve been looking at historic population projections, it becomes very clear that they are usually useless at projection populations 50 years out.

That is a good point; take projections with a large grain of salt.

On that note, many seem to be mystified by the increasing deflationary momentum.

I'm not.

As irrational as investors can be, the fundamentals do not lie.

The fundamentals are already starting to hit the leading edge of the greatest global demographic inflection point in 10,000 years. No one knows exactly what will happen when, year upon year, markets shrink.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

... No one knows exactly what will happen when, year upon year, markets shrink.

Borrowers will be screwed. Savers will be rich.

Originally Posted by TnT

Borrowers will be screwed. Savers will be rich.

Only up to a point, as the investment opportunities for those savings dry up as well. Sure, just holding steadily appreciating cash is ok, but not as great as having a booming market in which to put those cash holdings instead.

Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84

On that note, many seem to be mystified by the increasing deflationary momentum.

I'm not.

What indicators are you looking at. Could you provide links?

Thanks