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Thread: Historic population projections







Post#1 at 11-16-2015 01:39 PM by Dan '82 [at joined Mar 2014 #posts 349]
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11-16-2015, 01:39 PM #1
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Historic population projections

Recently I’ve been looking at historic population projections, it becomes very clear that they are usually useless at projection populations 50 years out.

"A Nation of Elders in the Making" by Warren S. Thompson and P.K. Whelpton, The American Mercury, April 1930

IN 1790, one hundred and forty years ago, we took our first national census.At that time we had a population of 3,919,114. This in itself represented a very rapid growth in the century and threequarters during which white settlement had been going on. But it seems small in comparison with the 31,000,000 we had in i860 at the outbreak of the Civil War. During this period of seventy years our population doubled every twenty-three years and was just about eight times as large in i860 as it had been in 1790.

By the time this year's census is taken, at the end of the second seventy-year period of our census taking, our population will have grown to 1x0,000,000. This is about four times its size seventy years ago, but it represents a rate of growth somewhat less than one-half that of the earlier period. There can be no doubt that during the next seventy-year period, 1930
to 2.000, our rate of growth will still further decline.

Even our vociferous professional boosters seem to be convinced of this, for we find them talking of no more than 140,000,000 or Z5o,ooo,ooo people in the year 1000. They apparently feel that they are being extremely conservative when they say that our population will double only once in the next seventy years. This is only onethird the rate of increase of the last seventy years and surely, they say, we should attain this figure, even with immigration restricted.
Forecasts of the population of the United States, 1945-1975


This one had the US population peeking at 164 million in 1990


Last edited by Dan '82; 11-16-2015 at 01:44 PM.







Post#2 at 11-16-2015 03:54 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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11-16-2015, 03:54 PM #2
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Quote Originally Posted by Dan '82 View Post
Recently I’ve been looking at historic population projections, it becomes very clear that they are usually useless at projection populations 50 years out.
That is a good point; take projections with a large grain of salt.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#3 at 11-16-2015 05:06 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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11-16-2015, 05:06 PM #3
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On that note, many seem to be mystified by the increasing deflationary momentum.

I'm not.

As irrational as investors can be, the fundamentals do not lie.

The fundamentals are already starting to hit the leading edge of the greatest global demographic inflection point in 10,000 years. No one knows exactly what will happen when, year upon year, markets shrink.







Post#4 at 11-16-2015 06:57 PM by TnT [at joined Feb 2005 #posts 2,005]
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11-16-2015, 06:57 PM #4
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
... No one knows exactly what will happen when, year upon year, markets shrink.
Borrowers will be screwed. Savers will be rich.
" ... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition."







Post#5 at 11-16-2015 07:25 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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11-16-2015, 07:25 PM #5
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Quote Originally Posted by TnT View Post
Borrowers will be screwed. Savers will be rich.

Only up to a point, as the investment opportunities for those savings dry up as well. Sure, just holding steadily appreciating cash is ok, but not as great as having a booming market in which to put those cash holdings instead.







Post#6 at 11-16-2015 07:47 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
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11-16-2015, 07:47 PM #6
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Quote Originally Posted by XYMOX_4AD_84 View Post
On that note, many seem to be mystified by the increasing deflationary momentum.

I'm not.
What indicators are you looking at. Could you provide links?

Thanks
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