Iraq Today vs 1960s America
Iraq Today vs 1960s America
Summary: They have much in common: Bombings,
assassinations, student demonstrations, violent riots, calls for
insurrection and civil war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than
a coincidence.
Gangs who bomb public buildings in the capital; student unrest, riots
and demonstrations in cities throughout the country; assassinations
of major figures; rhetoric calling government leaders criminals;
radical figures calling for government overthrow, massive
insurrections and civil war; media publicity sympathizing with the
rioters rather than the government officials.
Sound familiar?
It should. It's happening in Iraq today, but it also happened in
America in the 1960s and 70s.
That's no accident. It happens in every country, every society,
throughout time and history, and always starting about 15-20 years
after the end of a major crisis war.
At that time, college age kids who have no personal memory of the
last crisis war start to "rebel" against their parents, their elders.
It happened in America in the 1960s and 70s, following World War II,
and it's happening today in Iraq, following the Iran-Iraq war of the
1980s.
So let's take a trip back to America in the 1960s, and see what
lessons we can learn about Iraq today.
*****
***** Civil Rights Protests and Ghetto Riots
*****
Today we remember the 1960s as a time of anti-war protests, but in
fact the protests began long before almost anyone had even heard of
Vietnam.
The first massive riots and demonstrations began in 1963, and they
were typically civil rights protests against racial discrimination.
In 1963, over 200,000 blacks marched in Detroit to protest
discrimination and almost half of the children in Chicago boycotted
their schools.
Each summer from then on was referred to in news reports as a "long
hot summer," as blacks protested in one city after another, often
with violence. The nation breathed a sigh of relief on Labor Day of
each year, as the fall arrived, and with the hope that there would be
no more violence for a while.
Top: Businesses burning in Watts riot in August, 1965; Bottom: Car
burning in Fallujah riot in April, 2004
The biggest and most memorable riot occurred in 1965 in Watts, the
black neighborhood of Los Angeles. It was pretty clearly
generational, as young blacks rioted and destroyed large numbers of
businesses and retail establishments in Watts, mostly run by older
generation blacks. The riot lasted six days, leaving 34 dead and
causing $40 million in property damage.
Rioting continued for several summers thereafter, but the worst
summer of violence occurred in 1967, when racial unrest hit over 100
cities across the country, with the largest riots in Newark and
Detroit.
Almost all the riots were sparked by police arrests, and were
uncoordinated local riots. The major except was the 1968 riots,
which swept the U.S. following the assassination of Martin Luther
King Jr.
Lessons for Iraq
- Racial, religious and ethnic rivalries are real. There
will be demonstrations, riots and even low-level violence
between youngsters of Sunni and Shi'ite religious groups, and probably
ethnic Kurds will enter the picture as well. However, it isn't
America's job to sort these out - they should be left to Iraqis
themselves.- These riots in Iraq will continue for years, and probably get
worse. However, they come in spurts, and violence dies down within
a few days, because the adults don't support violence.- These riots will absolutely not trigger a civil war
between Sunnis and Shi'ites, as pundits and high-priced analysts have
been predicting for over a year. Why? Because the adults are
opposed to a civil war.- These riots will absolutely not trigger an uprising
against Americans, for the same reason. The only exception would be
if the Americans did something so outrageous -- like bombing a mosque
out of pure vengeance -- that the elders would feel forced to support
a war.
Top: Newspaper cartoon mocking President Nixon, 1970s; Bottom:
Flyer mocking Donald Rumsfeld's reward program- The demonstrators will say anything outrageous just to get press
attention, and the press will gladly cooperate. In the 60s, Kennedy
was called a racist, and Johnson and Nixon were called willing
instruments of war. Actually, they were called a lot worse, and the
press always ate it up. Today the same thing is happening in
Iraq.
*****
***** Student Unrest and Hippies
*****
They've been called "Bohemians" and "hippies." They sprout up in the
youth culture of every awakening period. There was Paris in 1898,
there was Greenwich Village in the 1920s and 60s, and there was the
Haight-Ashbury district in San Francisco in the 1960s. They're
characterized by unconventional dress and hair styles, use of illicit
drugs and sexual nonconformity. In the 1960s they were frequently
called "pot-smoking long-haired sex-crazed hippies."
By the mid-60s, the "hippie lifestyle" was being emulated by kids
around the country. A lot of college kids let their hair grow, more
out of laziness than anything else, much to the dismay of the barbers
who were forced out of business. Rock became the official
counter-culture music. Pot smoking became acceptable in some
sub-cultures, and Harvard psychologist Professor Timothy Leary
encouraged kids to take hallucinogenic LSD and to "Turn on, tune in,
and drop out."
The first major college protests began in 1964 at the University of
California at Berkeley over the issues of free speech and right of
assembly. The college protests were generally non-violent at first,
but the student movements turned into deadly seriousness by 1967, with
the armed forces draft for the Vietnam War. Hundreds of thousands of
college males chose to defy the draft, and in the 1968 Democratic
National Convention in Chicago, over 10,000 college students led the
antiwar protests that confronted 6,000 National Guard troops. There
was widespread violence; policemen were attacked with rocks, and many
students were clubbed. 668 students were arrested, and over a
thousand were injured.
Student riots and demonstrations drew blood not only throughout
America, but also in Canada and Europe. In Germany and France they
were called the "68ers," and in France the violence was so extreme it
almost brought down the government.
Lessons for Iraq
- College age kids will riot and demonstrate about almost
anything during an awakening period -- more precisely, they'll riot
and demonstrate over anything about their parents that they don't
like.- For heaven's sakes, do not close down newspapers. Every time the
Coalition closed down a newspaper for "inciting violence" after the
war ended, I cringed. Kids do not like to have their newspapers shut
down. Don't do it.- The confrontational, violent reactions of the police during the
1960s largely backfired, and it's backfiring in Iraq today. Those
responsible for keeping civil order in Iraq today should hire 1960s
policemen as consultants to understand what they're doing wrong.- The student demonstrations will go on for years.
*****
***** Malcolm X and Martin Luther King
*****
Although the civil rights protests and the student protests occurred
in the same period and had mutual synergy, they were really two
fairly distinct movements.
Within the civil rights movement itself there were dark forces and
light forces.
Top: Malcolm X, who rejected compromise and advocated violence
against U.S. government in the 1960s; Bottom: Shi'ite Muslim cleric
Moktada al-Sadr, who rejects compromise and advocates violence
against Coalition, 2004
Malcolm X was the dark force. In 1963 he became the first major
"black separatist," in a speech where he demanded that the "wicked
white race" pay "back pay" for 400 years of slave labor. This would
consist of 1/7th of the terrority of the U.S. for a new black nation,
and a substantial amount of money. "We want no part of integration
with this wicked race of devils," he said, and hinted at violence.
In another speech, just after the assassination of President Kennedy,
he said, "White America is doomed! Death and devastating destruction
hang at this very moment in the skies over America." In response to
a question about the assassination, he said that Kennedy "never
foresaw that the chickens would come home to roost so soon." These
inflammatory remarks caused a split within Malcolm X's own black
separatist organization, and in the intramural fighting, Malcolm X
was murdered in 1965.
Top: Rev. Martin Luther King, who led peaceful protests against
racism, 1960s; Bottom: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who advocates
peaceful resolution of problems in Iraq, 2004
Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. was the opposite in almost every way.
After attending theological school he became an ardent advocate for
achieving racial equality through non-violent means. In August 1963,
King led a march on Washington in which over 200,000 people
participated. It was at that time that he told the crowd, "I have a
dream that one day the nation will rise up and live out the true
meaning of its creed ... all men are created equal." King won the
Nobel Peace Prize in 1964 and continued as a tireless and idealistic
civil rights leader. King was assassinated in 1968, but remains to
this day as a symbol of racial equality through non-violent means.
Lessons for Iraq
- There will be Iraqi leaders who will be advocates for violence,
and those who will be advocates for non-violence.- Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moktada al-Sadr appears to be emerging as a
leader for violence. He's young, about 31 years old, and is subject
to arrest on an Iraqi warrant for having murdered another cleric.
He's urged his young followers in Najaf to violent confrontation with
Coalition forces. His violent tactics are not expected to last much
longer, but whether he will be remembered as a prophet, a failure or
a martyr remains to be seen.- 73 year old Shi'ite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is a strong
advocate for non-violence. He still has an opportunity to become an
important symbolic leader for all of Iraq.- Other leaders, pro- and anti-violence, Sunni and Shi'ite and
Kurdish - have yet to emerge. They will have in common the goal of
ending the U.S. occupation, but they will differ in means. In the
end, it's the non-violent leaders who will be honored.
*****
***** The Black Panthers and the Weather
***** Underground
*****
Following the assassination of Malcolm X, his message was taken up by
the Black Panthers, a group formed in 1966 by Huey P. Newton. Saying
that "We have two evils to fight, capitalism and racism. We must
destroy both racism and capitalism," Newton essentially advocated a
civil war between blacks and whites by encouraging blacks to rise up
against whites as a matter of self-defense. Polls showed that the
goals and methods advocated by the Black Panthers received high
levels of approval among blacks, but of course no uprising actually
occurred.
Top: Terrorist Bernadine Dohrn of the Weather Underground which
advocated and promoted overthrow of the American government through a
campaign of bombings, jailbreaks and riots, 1960s and 70s; Bottom:
Jordanian terrorist Musab al-Zarqawi, who advocates and promotes
bombings and armed riots to overthrow the interim Iraqi government,
2004
The Weathermen group was formed as a splinter group from the
non-violent Students for a Democratic Society (SDS). The name comes
from the Bob Dylan lyrics, "You don't need a weather man to know
which way the wind blows." They advocated overthrow of the American
government through a campaign of bombings, jailbreaks and riots. They
began in October, 1969, with a bombing of a statue in Chicago during
their first event, called the "Days of Rage." They followed this by
leading a group of 300 in a riot through Chicago's business district,
smashing windows and cars. Six people were shot in the ensuing
violence. In 1970, following the assassination of Black Panther Fred
Hampton by the FBI, the group changed its name to Weather Underground
and issued a Declaration of War against the United States government.
The group continued for several years and took the credit for
numerous bombings, including attacks on the U.S. Capitol, the
Pentagon, and police and prison buildings.
Lessons for Iraq
- Calls for insurrection and civil war, like those of the Black
Panthers, are quite common during awakening periods, but an actual
civil war or insurrection is almost impossible, since the adults
don't want it. In Iraq today, al-Sadr and other young Muslim clerics
have been calling for civil war and insurrection, and once again the
calls are having little or no effect.- To emphasize the last point: the 1960s radicals we've been
discussing urged violence and insurrection because they believed,
along with many journalists, that America was a police state ripe for
a revolution. Today, the "radicals" in Iraq believe, along with many
journalists, that Iraq is a police state (under American control) and
is ripe for a revolution. In fact, America has had only one such
event - the American Civil War, 1861-65. In the 1960s, just under 20
years after the end of the WW II, there was no desire at all for
another civil war or insurrection. Today in Iraq, just under 20 years
after the Iran/Iraq war, there's no desire for another civil war or
insurrection.- Poll results can also be misleading. Blacks supported the
methods of the Black Panthers, according to the polls, but when it
came to action, no one was really interested. Today, we're hearing
about polls that approve of various acts of violence against
Americans in Iraq, but these polls should be carefully analyzed to
see if they're more than just talk. Very often, an angry poll
response from a young person during an awakening period is no more
than an indirect way of criticizing his own parents.- It's worth repeating that the press and news media really play up
calls for civil war and insurrection -- they did during 60s America,
and they're doing it in Iraq today. And being wrong never seems to
make any difference. The press and the high-priced analysts have
been warning of and predicting insurrection and civil war in Iraq
ever since the war ended, and they've been wrong every time. It's a
strange world.
*****
***** President Nixon's resignation
*****
Nixon says goodbye with a victorious salute as he boards a
helicopter after resigning. Will we soon be seeing a picture of
American forces pulling out of Iraq?
Awakening periods occur in every society on a regular basis, starting
around 20 years after a major crisis war. They often expose deep
divisions within a society, and these divisions can lead to war 40 or
so years later when the younger generation comes to power.
Very often the conflicts can be defused if the awakening period ends
with an "internal revolution," some sort of political change that the
younger generation perceives as a victory.
This happened in America's last awakening when America unilaterally
withdrew from Vietnam in 1973, and President Richard Nixon resigned in
1974. These actions gave a sense of victory to the "baby boom"
generation, the younger generation of the generation gap pair.
Lessons for Iraq
- The Iraqi young people will probably win some "internal
revolution" of their own after a few years have passed. Perhaps it
will have to do with forcing the Americans to leave, or perhaps it
will have nothing to do with the Americans.- Until then, expect to see many years of turmoil in Iraq. There
will be many more riots and demonstrations, many more bombings and
confrontations, many more bad leaders and good leaders.
*****
***** America today
*****
The fact that Iraq today is going through an awakening exactly like
America in the 1960s gives us a wonderful opportunity to understand
Iraq today ... and America today.
Many people are calling the Iraq war a "quagmire," and are expecting
the American people, especially college kids, to turn against the war
en masse.
But if you've read through the above description of 1960s America,
it's intensely obvious that America today is nothing like America
then. There are no racial riots or demonstrations today, there are
no student riots or demonstrations today, and there's no antiwar
movement today, to speak of.
Sure, every now and then some group manages to mount some sort of
antiwar event, but it's always forgotten two days later. Many
high-priced analysts are predicting that something resembling the
Vietnam era Tet offensive will cause the American public to become
polarized against the war, but recent events in Fallujah and Jafad
have been just as intense as the Tet offensive, with no discernable
effect on the American public.
This is what Generational Dynamics is all about. It tells you that
America today is very different from 1960s America because of the
flow of generations. But by understanding 1960s America, we can
begin to understand not just ourselves, but also the Iraqis, and that
could be very useful for policymakers.
*****
***** Summary
*****
In any society, an awakening period is always a time of cultural
growth and new ideas of all kinds.
But it's always a tumultuous time because it features a major
generational class between kids of college age and their parents.
In 1960s America, we saw the assassination of President Kennedy, or
Martin Luther King, and of Robert F. Kennedy. We saw massive racial
demonstrations in Washington D.C., and we saw racial riots and
demonstrations throughout the country. We saw bombings in
Washington, Chicago and elsewhere. We saw calls for civil war and
insurrection that were supported by the media and polls -- but which
turned out to be no more than rhetoric. And we saw two presidents,
President Johnson and President Nixon, forced from office because
they became so unpopular as a result of those protests.
Those same things are happening in Iraq today.
Our policymakers should take the trouble to understand this
equivalence, because if we understand what happened in our own
country 40 years ago, then we have a much better chance at
understanding what's happening in Iraq today, and what we should do
about it.
*****
***** Postscript
*****
As I'm writing this on 1-May-2004, there are two news items today
which are significant:
- Fallujah residents are rejoicing and declaring victory today
as Marines pull back, allowing the entrance of a "Fallujah brigade"
put together by Iraqi generals from Saddam Hussein's ousted regime.
This is a great strategy: It gives the kids a victory, thus defusing
their message, and it gives responsibility of the Iraqi kids back to
the Iraqi elders.- News reports indicate that American and British military police
officers were photographed mistreating Iraqi prisoners. These photos
are explosive -- they're exactly the kinds of things that will
inflame the kids in Iraq during an awakening period. We can expect
these photos to provide years of fodder for attacks against America
and Britain.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
- Join Date
- May 2003
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
