Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Iraq Today vs 1960s America







Post#1 at 05-04-2004 04:32 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 04:32 AM #1
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Summary: They have much in common: Bombings,
assassinations, student demonstrations, violent riots, calls for
insurrection and civil war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than
a coincidence.


Gangs who bomb public buildings in the capital; student unrest, riots
and demonstrations in cities throughout the country; assassinations
of major figures; rhetoric calling government leaders criminals;
radical figures calling for government overthrow, massive
insurrections and civil war; media publicity sympathizing with the
rioters rather than the government officials.

Sound familiar?

It should. It's happening in Iraq today, but it also happened in
America in the 1960s and 70s.

That's no accident. It happens in every country, every society,
throughout time and history, and always starting about 15-20 years
after the end of a major crisis war.

At that time, college age kids who have no personal memory of the
last crisis war start to "rebel" against their parents, their elders.
It happened in America in the 1960s and 70s, following World War II,
and it's happening today in Iraq, following the Iran-Iraq war of the
1980s.

So let's take a trip back to America in the 1960s, and see what
lessons we can learn about Iraq today.

*****
***** Civil Rights Protests and Ghetto Riots
*****


Today we remember the 1960s as a time of anti-war protests, but in
fact the protests began long before almost anyone had even heard of
Vietnam.

The first massive riots and demonstrations began in 1963, and they
were typically civil rights protests against racial discrimination.

In 1963, over 200,000 blacks marched in Detroit to protest
discrimination and almost half of the children in Chicago boycotted
their schools.

Each summer from then on was referred to in news reports as a "long
hot summer," as blacks protested in one city after another, often
with violence. The nation breathed a sigh of relief on Labor Day of
each year, as the fall arrived, and with the hope that there would be
no more violence for a while.





Top: Businesses burning in Watts riot in August, 1965; Bottom: Car
burning in Fallujah riot in April, 2004


The biggest and most memorable riot occurred in 1965 in Watts, the
black neighborhood of Los Angeles. It was pretty clearly
generational, as young blacks rioted and destroyed large numbers of
businesses and retail establishments in Watts, mostly run by older
generation blacks. The riot lasted six days, leaving 34 dead and
causing $40 million in property damage.

Rioting continued for several summers thereafter, but the worst
summer of violence occurred in 1967, when racial unrest hit over 100
cities across the country, with the largest riots in Newark and
Detroit.

Almost all the riots were sparked by police arrests, and were
uncoordinated local riots. The major except was the 1968 riots,
which swept the U.S. following the assassination of Martin Luther
King Jr.

Lessons for Iraq

  • Racial, religious and ethnic rivalries are real. There
    will be demonstrations, riots and even low-level violence
    between youngsters of Sunni and Shi'ite religious groups, and probably
    ethnic Kurds will enter the picture as well. However, it isn't
    America's job to sort these out - they should be left to Iraqis
    themselves.
  • These riots in Iraq will continue for years, and probably get
    worse. However, they come in spurts, and violence dies down within
    a few days, because the adults don't support violence.
  • These riots will absolutely not trigger a civil war
    between Sunnis and Shi'ites, as pundits and high-priced analysts have
    been predicting for over a year. Why? Because the adults are
    opposed to a civil war.
  • These riots will absolutely not trigger an uprising
    against Americans, for the same reason. The only exception would be
    if the Americans did something so outrageous -- like bombing a mosque
    out of pure vengeance -- that the elders would feel forced to support
    a war.





    Top: Newspaper cartoon mocking President Nixon, 1970s; Bottom:
    Flyer mocking Donald Rumsfeld's reward program

  • The demonstrators will say anything outrageous just to get press
    attention, and the press will gladly cooperate. In the 60s, Kennedy
    was called a racist, and Johnson and Nixon were called willing
    instruments of war. Actually, they were called a lot worse, and the
    press always ate it up. Today the same thing is happening in
    Iraq.


*****
***** Student Unrest and Hippies
*****


They've been called "Bohemians" and "hippies." They sprout up in the
youth culture of every awakening period. There was Paris in 1898,
there was Greenwich Village in the 1920s and 60s, and there was the
Haight-Ashbury district in San Francisco in the 1960s. They're
characterized by unconventional dress and hair styles, use of illicit
drugs and sexual nonconformity. In the 1960s they were frequently
called "pot-smoking long-haired sex-crazed hippies."

By the mid-60s, the "hippie lifestyle" was being emulated by kids
around the country. A lot of college kids let their hair grow, more
out of laziness than anything else, much to the dismay of the barbers
who were forced out of business. Rock became the official
counter-culture music. Pot smoking became acceptable in some
sub-cultures, and Harvard psychologist Professor Timothy Leary
encouraged kids to take hallucinogenic LSD and to "Turn on, tune in,
and drop out."

The first major college protests began in 1964 at the University of
California at Berkeley over the issues of free speech and right of
assembly. The college protests were generally non-violent at first,
but the student movements turned into deadly seriousness by 1967, with
the armed forces draft for the Vietnam War. Hundreds of thousands of
college males chose to defy the draft, and in the 1968 Democratic
National Convention in Chicago, over 10,000 college students led the
antiwar protests that confronted 6,000 National Guard troops. There
was widespread violence; policemen were attacked with rocks, and many
students were clubbed. 668 students were arrested, and over a
thousand were injured.

Student riots and demonstrations drew blood not only throughout
America, but also in Canada and Europe. In Germany and France they
were called the "68ers," and in France the violence was so extreme it
almost brought down the government.

Lessons for Iraq

  • College age kids will riot and demonstrate about almost
    anything during an awakening period -- more precisely, they'll riot
    and demonstrate over anything about their parents that they don't
    like.
  • For heaven's sakes, do not close down newspapers. Every time the
    Coalition closed down a newspaper for "inciting violence" after the
    war ended, I cringed. Kids do not like to have their newspapers shut
    down. Don't do it.
  • The confrontational, violent reactions of the police during the
    1960s largely backfired, and it's backfiring in Iraq today. Those
    responsible for keeping civil order in Iraq today should hire 1960s
    policemen as consultants to understand what they're doing wrong.
  • The student demonstrations will go on for years.


*****
***** Malcolm X and Martin Luther King
*****


Although the civil rights protests and the student protests occurred
in the same period and had mutual synergy, they were really two
fairly distinct movements.

Within the civil rights movement itself there were dark forces and
light forces.





Top: Malcolm X, who rejected compromise and advocated violence
against U.S. government in the 1960s; Bottom: Shi'ite Muslim cleric
Moktada al-Sadr, who rejects compromise and advocates violence
against Coalition, 2004


Malcolm X was the dark force. In 1963 he became the first major
"black separatist," in a speech where he demanded that the "wicked
white race" pay "back pay" for 400 years of slave labor. This would
consist of 1/7th of the terrority of the U.S. for a new black nation,
and a substantial amount of money. "We want no part of integration
with this wicked race of devils," he said, and hinted at violence.
In another speech, just after the assassination of President Kennedy,
he said, "White America is doomed! Death and devastating destruction
hang at this very moment in the skies over America." In response to
a question about the assassination, he said that Kennedy "never
foresaw that the chickens would come home to roost so soon." These
inflammatory remarks caused a split within Malcolm X's own black
separatist organization, and in the intramural fighting, Malcolm X
was murdered in 1965.





Top: Rev. Martin Luther King, who led peaceful protests against
racism, 1960s; Bottom: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who advocates
peaceful resolution of problems in Iraq, 2004


Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. was the opposite in almost every way.
After attending theological school he became an ardent advocate for
achieving racial equality through non-violent means. In August 1963,
King led a march on Washington in which over 200,000 people
participated. It was at that time that he told the crowd, "I have a
dream that one day the nation will rise up and live out the true
meaning of its creed ... all men are created equal." King won the
Nobel Peace Prize in 1964 and continued as a tireless and idealistic
civil rights leader. King was assassinated in 1968, but remains to
this day as a symbol of racial equality through non-violent means.

Lessons for Iraq

  • There will be Iraqi leaders who will be advocates for violence,
    and those who will be advocates for non-violence.
  • Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moktada al-Sadr appears to be emerging as a
    leader for violence. He's young, about 31 years old, and is subject
    to arrest on an Iraqi warrant for having murdered another cleric.
    He's urged his young followers in Najaf to violent confrontation with
    Coalition forces. His violent tactics are not expected to last much
    longer, but whether he will be remembered as a prophet, a failure or
    a martyr remains to be seen.
  • 73 year old Shi'ite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is a strong
    advocate for non-violence. He still has an opportunity to become an
    important symbolic leader for all of Iraq.
  • Other leaders, pro- and anti-violence, Sunni and Shi'ite and
    Kurdish - have yet to emerge. They will have in common the goal of
    ending the U.S. occupation, but they will differ in means. In the
    end, it's the non-violent leaders who will be honored.


*****
***** The Black Panthers and the Weather
***** Underground
*****


Following the assassination of Malcolm X, his message was taken up by
the Black Panthers, a group formed in 1966 by Huey P. Newton. Saying
that "We have two evils to fight, capitalism and racism. We must
destroy both racism and capitalism," Newton essentially advocated a
civil war between blacks and whites by encouraging blacks to rise up
against whites as a matter of self-defense. Polls showed that the
goals and methods advocated by the Black Panthers received high
levels of approval among blacks, but of course no uprising actually
occurred.





Top: Terrorist Bernadine Dohrn of the Weather Underground which
advocated and promoted overthrow of the American government through a
campaign of bombings, jailbreaks and riots, 1960s and 70s; Bottom:
Jordanian terrorist Musab al-Zarqawi, who advocates and promotes
bombings and armed riots to overthrow the interim Iraqi government,
2004


The Weathermen group was formed as a splinter group from the
non-violent Students for a Democratic Society (SDS). The name comes
from the Bob Dylan lyrics, "You don't need a weather man to know
which way the wind blows." They advocated overthrow of the American
government through a campaign of bombings, jailbreaks and riots. They
began in October, 1969, with a bombing of a statue in Chicago during
their first event, called the "Days of Rage." They followed this by
leading a group of 300 in a riot through Chicago's business district,
smashing windows and cars. Six people were shot in the ensuing
violence. In 1970, following the assassination of Black Panther Fred
Hampton by the FBI, the group changed its name to Weather Underground
and issued a Declaration of War against the United States government.
The group continued for several years and took the credit for
numerous bombings, including attacks on the U.S. Capitol, the
Pentagon, and police and prison buildings.

Lessons for Iraq

  • Calls for insurrection and civil war, like those of the Black
    Panthers, are quite common during awakening periods, but an actual
    civil war or insurrection is almost impossible, since the adults
    don't want it. In Iraq today, al-Sadr and other young Muslim clerics
    have been calling for civil war and insurrection, and once again the
    calls are having little or no effect.
  • To emphasize the last point: the 1960s radicals we've been
    discussing urged violence and insurrection because they believed,
    along with many journalists, that America was a police state ripe for
    a revolution. Today, the "radicals" in Iraq believe, along with many
    journalists, that Iraq is a police state (under American control) and
    is ripe for a revolution. In fact, America has had only one such
    event - the American Civil War, 1861-65. In the 1960s, just under 20
    years after the end of the WW II, there was no desire at all for
    another civil war or insurrection. Today in Iraq, just under 20 years
    after the Iran/Iraq war, there's no desire for another civil war or
    insurrection.
  • Poll results can also be misleading. Blacks supported the
    methods of the Black Panthers, according to the polls, but when it
    came to action, no one was really interested. Today, we're hearing
    about polls that approve of various acts of violence against
    Americans in Iraq, but these polls should be carefully analyzed to
    see if they're more than just talk. Very often, an angry poll
    response from a young person during an awakening period is no more
    than an indirect way of criticizing his own parents.
  • It's worth repeating that the press and news media really play up
    calls for civil war and insurrection -- they did during 60s America,
    and they're doing it in Iraq today. And being wrong never seems to
    make any difference. The press and the high-priced analysts have
    been warning of and predicting insurrection and civil war in Iraq
    ever since the war ended, and they've been wrong every time. It's a
    strange world.


*****
***** President Nixon's resignation
*****




Nixon says goodbye with a victorious salute as he boards a
helicopter after resigning. Will we soon be seeing a picture of
American forces pulling out of Iraq?


Awakening periods occur in every society on a regular basis, starting
around 20 years after a major crisis war. They often expose deep
divisions within a society, and these divisions can lead to war 40 or
so years later when the younger generation comes to power.

Very often the conflicts can be defused if the awakening period ends
with an "internal revolution," some sort of political change that the
younger generation perceives as a victory.

This happened in America's last awakening when America unilaterally
withdrew from Vietnam in 1973, and President Richard Nixon resigned in
1974. These actions gave a sense of victory to the "baby boom"
generation, the younger generation of the generation gap pair.

Lessons for Iraq

  • The Iraqi young people will probably win some "internal
    revolution" of their own after a few years have passed. Perhaps it
    will have to do with forcing the Americans to leave, or perhaps it
    will have nothing to do with the Americans.
  • Until then, expect to see many years of turmoil in Iraq. There
    will be many more riots and demonstrations, many more bombings and
    confrontations, many more bad leaders and good leaders.


*****
***** America today
*****


The fact that Iraq today is going through an awakening exactly like
America in the 1960s gives us a wonderful opportunity to understand
Iraq today ... and America today.

Many people are calling the Iraq war a "quagmire," and are expecting
the American people, especially college kids, to turn against the war
en masse.

But if you've read through the above description of 1960s America,
it's intensely obvious that America today is nothing like America
then. There are no racial riots or demonstrations today, there are
no student riots or demonstrations today, and there's no antiwar
movement today, to speak of.

Sure, every now and then some group manages to mount some sort of
antiwar event, but it's always forgotten two days later. Many
high-priced analysts are predicting that something resembling the
Vietnam era Tet offensive will cause the American public to become
polarized against the war, but recent events in Fallujah and Jafad
have been just as intense as the Tet offensive, with no discernable
effect on the American public.

This is what Generational Dynamics is all about. It tells you that
America today is very different from 1960s America because of the
flow of generations. But by understanding 1960s America, we can
begin to understand not just ourselves, but also the Iraqis, and that
could be very useful for policymakers.

*****
***** Summary
*****


In any society, an awakening period is always a time of cultural
growth and new ideas of all kinds.

But it's always a tumultuous time because it features a major
generational class between kids of college age and their parents.

In 1960s America, we saw the assassination of President Kennedy, or
Martin Luther King, and of Robert F. Kennedy. We saw massive racial
demonstrations in Washington D.C., and we saw racial riots and
demonstrations throughout the country. We saw bombings in
Washington, Chicago and elsewhere. We saw calls for civil war and
insurrection that were supported by the media and polls -- but which
turned out to be no more than rhetoric. And we saw two presidents,
President Johnson and President Nixon, forced from office because
they became so unpopular as a result of those protests.

Those same things are happening in Iraq today.

Our policymakers should take the trouble to understand this
equivalence, because if we understand what happened in our own
country 40 years ago, then we have a much better chance at
understanding what's happening in Iraq today, and what we should do
about it.

*****
***** Postscript
*****


As I'm writing this on 1-May-2004, there are two news items today
which are significant:

  • Fallujah residents are rejoicing and declaring victory today
    as Marines pull back, allowing the entrance of a "Fallujah brigade"
    put together by Iraqi generals from Saddam Hussein's ousted regime.
    This is a great strategy: It gives the kids a victory, thus defusing
    their message, and it gives responsibility of the Iraqi kids back to
    the Iraqi elders.
  • News reports indicate that American and British military police
    officers were photographed mistreating Iraqi prisoners. These photos
    are explosive -- they're exactly the kinds of things that will
    inflame the kids in Iraq during an awakening period. We can expect
    these photos to provide years of fodder for attacks against America
    and Britain.


Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#2 at 05-04-2004 04:38 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
---
05-04-2004, 04:38 AM #2
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Cove Hold, Carver, MA
Posts
6,431

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Summary: They have much in common: Bombings,
assassinations, student demonstrations, violent riots, calls for
insurrection and civil war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than
a coincidence.
I tend to disagree. I see Islamic civilization in unraveling mode. While idealistic younger reformers know what has to be done, older autocratic establishments are not yet ready to relinquish power and allow a crisis transformation process. What we are seeing in Iraq is unraveling partisan bickering, not awakening idealism or crisis consensus and transformation.

Though I am not at all sure there is a S&H style cycle of generations in progress at all.







Post#3 at 05-04-2004 05:38 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
05-04-2004, 05:38 AM #3
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

Who in the 1960's

had an army of occupation in the U.S.?

I remember the bombings, the riots, the radical and progressive trouble makers? I don't recall the army of occupation from a foreign power? I read Ramparts and the National Review and the New York Review of Books and they certainly forgot to inform me at that time.

There was ZOG, but it came in the 1980's as far as I can remember--with talk of Black Helicopters, et al.

And, where are the Hippies in Mesopotamia? It should have a "summer of love" pretty soon? And, drugs...the Iraqis need some acid...xanthines are not doing the job. I do see we are porting the "sexual" adventure to the backward Middle East-- at least in the prison system--that pile of nekkid Arabs could have been at LaMama with its "theater of cruelty". :shock:







Post#4 at 05-04-2004 08:58 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 08:58 AM #4
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Dear Bob,

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
> I tend to disagree. I see Islamic civilization in unraveling
> mode.
If that's true, then what was the Iran-Iraq war? An awakening?

John







Post#5 at 05-04-2004 09:03 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 09:03 AM #5
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Who in the 1960's

Dear Virgil,

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> had an army of occupation in the U.S.?

> I remember the bombings, the riots, the radical and progressive
> trouble makers? I don't recall the army of occupation from a
> foreign power? I read Ramparts and the National Review and the New
> York Review of Books and they certainly forgot to inform me at
> that time.
That's the point -- that we went through exactly the same sort of
turmoil that Iraq is going through now, even though there was no army
of occupation. Just as crisis periods happen to everyone, awakening
periods happen to everyone also.

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> There was ZOG, but it came in the 1980's as far as I can
> remember--with talk of Black Helicopters, et al.
I'd never heard of ZOG before, but doing some googling has led me to
understand it means "Zionist occupied government," by which I assume
you're indicating that you don't personally view the 1948
partitioning of Palestine as valid, although I'm not sure whether ZOG
refers to some American organization that is presumably occupied by
Jews, or perhaps to the American government itself. I'm not sure.
Perhaps you could tell me what this is all about.

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> And, where are the Hippies in Mesopotamia? It should have a
> "summer of love" pretty soon? And, drugs...the Iraqis need some
> acid...xanthines are not doing the job. I do see we are porting
> the "sexual" adventure to the backward Middle East-- at least in
> the prison system--that pile of nekkid Arabs could have been at
> LaMama with its "theater of cruelty".
Well, the "awakening" period in Iraq is just beginning, so there's
still plenty of time for a "summer of love."

In reviewing the history of the 60s and 70s for the above article, I
got the feeling that violence lasted only so long before there was
something to defuse the violence, simply because people got sick of
it. The summer of love was a non-violent reaction to the racial
rioting violence and Woodstock was a non-violent reaction to the
antiwar movement violence. Those events seemed to reduce the level of
violence, as far as I can tell, while keeping the non-violent
political conflicts at a high pitch.

This analysis comparing Iraq today with 1960s America has given me a
bit of hope. I believe that the Iraqi people will not tolerate the
violence for long, but at the same time, the political opposition to
the American presence will continue to grow. I think Sistani will
have a big influence, assuming that his age doesn't slow him down.

It's worth pointing out again that analysts and pundits have been
predicting an Iraqi civil war or an insurrection against the
Americans for over a year, but nothing ever happens. That's because
Iraq is in an awakening period where the kids become violent but soon
tire of it.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#6 at 05-04-2004 09:26 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
05-04-2004, 09:26 AM #6
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

Re: Who in the 1960's

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
Dear Virgil,

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> had an army of occupation in the U.S.?

> I remember the bombings, the riots, the radical and progressive
> trouble makers? I don't recall the army of occupation from a
> foreign power? I read Ramparts and the National Review and the New
> York Review of Books and they certainly forgot to inform me at
> that time.
That's the point -- that we went through exactly the same sort of
turmoil that Iraq is going through now, even though there was no army
of occupation. Just as crisis periods happen to everyone, awakening
periods happen to everyone also.

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> There was ZOG, but it came in the 1980's as far as I can
> remember--with talk of Black Helicopters, et al.
I'd never heard of ZOG before, but doing some googling has led me to
understand it means "Zionist occupied government," by which I assume
you're indicating that you don't personally view the 1948
partitioning of Palestine as valid, although I'm not sure whether ZOG
refers to some American organization that is presumably occupied by
Jews, or perhaps to the American government itself. I'm not sure.
Perhaps you could tell me what this is all about.

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> And, where are the Hippies in Mesopotamia? It should have a
> "summer of love" pretty soon? And, drugs...the Iraqis need some
> acid...xanthines are not doing the job. I do see we are porting
> the "sexual" adventure to the backward Middle East-- at least in
> the prison system--that pile of nekkid Arabs could have been at
> LaMama with its "theater of cruelty".
Well, the "awakening" period in Iraq is just beginning, so there's
still plenty of time for a "summer of love."

In reviewing the history of the 60s and 70s for the above article, I
got the feeling that violence lasted only so long before there was
something to defuse the violence, simply because people got sick of
it. The summer of love was a non-violent reaction to the racial
rioting violence and Woodstock was a non-violent reaction to the
antiwar movement violence. Those events seemed to reduce the level of
violence, as far as I can tell, while keeping the non-violent
political conflicts at a high pitch.

This analysis comparing Iraq today with 1960s America has given me a
bit of hope. I believe that the Iraqi people will not tolerate the
violence for long, but at the same time, the political opposition to
the American presence will continue to grow. I think Sistani will
have a big influence, assuming that his age doesn't slow him down.

It's worth pointing out again that analysts and pundits have been
predicting an Iraqi civil war or an insurrection against the
Americans for over a year, but nothing ever happens. That's because
Iraq is in an awakening period where the kids become violent but soon
tire of it.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
The army of occupation makes the termoil different in kind rather than different in degree.

I began to hear of ZOG in the late 1980's when Mr. Bush and the New World Order was in vogue. This nuttiness was available in my youth on late night AM radio in the Midwest and has roots in the KKK of the 1920's here in Minnesota. But, the term ZOG for the Internationalist Zionist Conspiracy and its soon or present army of occupation coming down from the Great White North in Black (or alternately U.N. blue) helicopters (why fixed wing aircraft were not involved was never explained) to finish the job was the place holder for political paranoia on the less Progressive side. Now it is Islam's turn in the barrel after that set of staves had been used by the Jews, the Papists, the Negroes, the First Nations in turn.

{An aside: I find the partitioning of Palestine as valid as that of Karelia.}



Mesopotamia has been violent for decades. That the State had a monopoly under the Ba'ath for some time and now it is more democratically employed and even privately employed on a scale much greater than in the U.S. of my youth seems to be where I must dissent from your parallel vision.







Post#7 at 05-04-2004 09:56 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 09:56 AM #7
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Who in the 1960's

Dear Virgil,

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
> Mesopotamia has been violent for decades. That the State had a
> monopoly under the Ba'ath for some time and now it is more
> democratically employed and even privately employed on a scale
> much greater than in the U.S. of my youth seems to be where I must
> dissent from your parallel vision.
I don't understand what you're saying. I don't understand what point
you're making about employment. If now isn't the time of the Iraqi
awakening, then when was it? Does the fact that Iranian college
students have been having pro-American riots for several years
influence your view?

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#8 at 05-04-2004 02:51 PM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
---
05-04-2004, 02:51 PM #8
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Cove Hold, Carver, MA
Posts
6,431

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
> I tend to disagree. I see Islamic civilization in unraveling
> mode.
If that's true, then what was the Iran-Iraq war? An awakening?
It was a response to an Awakening. Iran's revolution can be read as an awakening. Iraq's invasion was a dictator fighting a proxy war with encouragement from the United States.

Not all conflicts come from bottom up, driven by generational moods. Sometimes autocratic governments go to war with no respect to the desires and feelings of their people.







Post#9 at 05-04-2004 04:10 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 04:10 PM #9
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Dear Bob,

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
> It was a response to an Awakening. Iran's revolution can be read
> as an awakening. Iraq's invasion was a dictator fighting a proxy
> war with encouragement from the United States.

> Not all conflicts come from bottom up, driven by generational
> moods. Sometimes autocratic governments go to war with no respect
> to the desires and feelings of their people.
OK, if you're going to call the Iran-Iraq war an awakening war, then
where was the previous crisis war?

First off, the Iran-Iraq war was an extremely murderous and genocidal
war, having all the characteristics of a crisis war. More than 50%
of the males of military age in Iraq were conscripted, yielding an
army of 1.3-1.6 million men. There were some 400,000 casualties (and
about 600,000 casualties in Iran). This has got to be a crisis war.

When was the previous crisis war? I can't find anything after the
destruction of the Ottoman Empire in the 1910s.

Here's a timeline for Iraq up to 1980:

1920: Iraq under British control, following destruction of the
Ottoman Empire.

1930: Full Iraqi independence, but the British retained bases.

1930s-50s: a number of coups and local uprisings, but no major war.

1941: Anti-Jewish pogrom in Baghdad, but no war.

1945-52: Political liberalization and formation of opposition
parties. Labor unrest. Widespread popular demonstrations, forcing the
British to remove their troops. New agreements with Iraq Petroleum
Company that gave the government substantially more revenue, which was
used for agricultural improvements. --- This looks like an awakening
period to me, and the widespread popular demonstrations that forced
the British to remove their troops are being repeated in the
awakening going on now.

1958: Iraqi Revolution - an army coup, but no war. Massive land
reform. -- once again, this looks to me like awakening type stuff.

1961: Putdown of Kurdish rebels in the north, but no major war.

1963: Military coup by Ba'th party. No war.

1964: Nationalization of all banks and insurance companies. Two
different coups. No war.

1969: Founding of a Shi'ite religious party hostile to the Ba'th
regime.

1972: Nationalization of the oil industry.

1974-5: More fighting in Kurdish region in the north.

1979: Saddam Hussein comes to power.

1980-88: Iran-Iraq war.

So I just don't see calling the Iran-Iraq war an awakening. Far from
it, it was an extremely murderous crisis war, and it was right on
schedule -- 60 years after the destruction of the Ottoman Empire and
the creation of Iraq. So today has to be an awakening.

However, going through this research exercise to answer your posting
has highlighted one thing to me: What's going on today is a replay of
the awakening period starting in 1945 when popular demonstrations
forced the British to remove their troops. You can be sure that
al-Sistani is thinking about those days.

It's really scary how these things repeat themselves in regular
cycles. Wow.

So we can be pretty certain that the American troops are going to be
forced out of Iraq.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#10 at 05-04-2004 04:30 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
---
05-04-2004, 04:30 PM #10
Join Date
Jun 2001
Posts
24

Implications

The youngest American grunts may be among the very earliest born Millenials. Whom, it seems, are confronted by coming-of-age Prophets. These same Millenials-a couple turnings hence-may again be confronted by coming-of-age Prophets. Presumably these Millenials will feel a sence of deja vue during our next Awakening-how do you suppose they will react then?







Post#11 at 05-04-2004 05:11 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
---
05-04-2004, 05:11 PM #11
Join Date
Jul 2002
Location
Arlington, VA 1956
Posts
9,209

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
OK, if you're going to call the Iran-Iraq war an awakening war, then
where was the previous crisis war?

First off, the Iran-Iraq war was an extremely murderous and genocidal
war, having all the characteristics of a crisis war. More than 50%
of the males of military age in Iraq were conscripted, yielding an
army of 1.3-1.6 million men. There were some 400,000 casualties (and
about 600,000 casualties in Iran). This has got to be a crisis war.

When was the previous crisis war? I can't find anything after the
destruction of the Ottoman Empire in the 1910s.
I don't have a clue where in the cycle Iraq is or even if they have the same saecular pattern that we've observed in the US (one view is that if you have civilizations next to each other on different cycles, they can interfere with each other's cycles and throw everyone off). However, you can have wars with very high casualties that are not Crisis wars. Two come to mind.

  • The English Civil War (circa 1640, not the War Between the Roses). I believe this was an Awakening war.
  • World War I, which occured during an Unravelling (at least for the US and the UK)
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#12 at 05-04-2004 06:14 PM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
---
05-04-2004, 06:14 PM #12
Join Date
Feb 2004
Location
In the belly of the Beast
Posts
1,734

Re: Who in the 1960's

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
I think Sistani will have a big influence, assuming that his age doesn't slow him down.
Ah, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, old Sour-Puss himself, the pride of the 15th Century, as our Gray Champion. My, my, how we have lowered our expectations!! :shock:

Comparing him to Dr. King is just wrong, on soooo many levels... :evil:







Post#13 at 05-04-2004 07:34 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
---
05-04-2004, 07:34 PM #13
Join Date
Oct 2003
Location
Melbourne, Australia
Posts
1,249

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Summary: They have much in common: Bombings,
assassinations, student demonstrations, violent riots, calls for
insurrection and civil war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than
a coincidence.
I did a study of the saeculum of the Middle East about three years ago; my posts are in the archives. I concluded that the Middle East is currently in early stages of the unravelling, rough where the USA was in the late 80?s and Europe during the early 90?s.

The last awakening in the Middle East started about 1979 when the Iranian revolution occurred. Israel along the rest of the middle east seem to be on the same saeculum, Old Toby same some observations on Israeli history that seem to support general Middle Eastern saeculum. The last awakening there saw some massive spritual and political upheval, not unlike what America experienced during the 1960's.







Post#14 at 05-04-2004 11:38 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 11:38 PM #14
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Implications

Dear Tim,

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
> The youngest American grunts may be among the very earliest born
> Millenials. Whom, it seems, are confronted by coming-of-age
> Prophets. These same Millenials-a couple turnings hence-may again
> be confronted by coming-of-age Prophets. Presumably these
> Millenials will feel a sence of deja vue during our next
> Awakening-how do you suppose they will react then?

This is a very interesting question, But I don't think they'll even
recognize the situation.

I've been talking to lots of people about all this stuff a couple of
years now, and I've given some presentations, and there's a real
mental block preventing most people from seeing generational
connections.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#15 at 05-04-2004 11:40 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 11:40 PM #15
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Quote Originally Posted by The Wonk
> I don't have a clue where in the cycle Iraq is or even if they
> have the same saecular pattern that we've observed in the US (one
> view is that if you have civilizations next to each other on
> different cycles, they can interfere with each other's cycles and
> throw everyone off). However, you can have wars with very high
> casualties that are not Crisis wars. Two come to mind.

> (*) The English Civil War (circa 1640, not the War Between the
> Roses). I believe this was an Awakening war.

> (*) World War I, which occured during an Unravelling (at least for
> the US and the UK)
I think that you and I discussed the English Civil War once before
(see http://fourthturning.com/forums/view...?p=87376#87376 ).
I gave a lengthy discussion there, but the upshot is that my analysis
is that the English Civil War was a crisis war.

And WW I was indeed not a crisis war for America or Western Europe,
but it was a crisis war for Russia and the Ottoman Empire. (See the
graphic at the end of my response to Tristan below.)

I certainly agree that casualty level is not always an indicator of
crisis wars -- in my book I discuss this point and list over a dozen
criteria for deciding whether a war is a crisis war, and this war
qualifies. The criteria boil down to a question of how much energy
the war was fought with, and this war was fought with a great deal of
energy. In my opinion, there's no way that half the male population
would have fought to the death if this had been an awakening war.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#16 at 05-04-2004 11:41 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 11:41 PM #16
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Who in the 1960's

Dear Rick,

Quote Originally Posted by Rick Hirst
> Ah, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, old Sour-Puss himself, the
> pride of the 15th Century, as our Gray Champion. My, my, how we
> have lowered our expectations!!

> Comparing him to Dr. King is just wrong, on soooo many levels...
I agree that the al-Sistani / Dr. King comparison is not 100%,
especially because of the differences in their ages, and the
difference in their personalities, but I believe that both men were
extremely important in defusing violence in both their times. Dr.
King worked to defuse the racial violence in the 60s, and al-Sistani
worked to defuse the concerns of the Shi'ite population during and
after the American invasion. I think al-Sistani has had an enormous
positive effect to help peace during the last year. (I believe that
http://www.sistani.org is his web site. Check it out.)

You know, I think that Dr. King and al-Sistani would like and respect
each other if they ever met.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#17 at 05-04-2004 11:43 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
05-04-2004, 11:43 PM #17
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Re: Iraq Today vs 1960s America

Quote Originally Posted by Tristan
> I did a study of the saeculum of the Middle East about three years
> ago; my posts are in the archives. I concluded that the Middle
> East is currently in early stages of the unravelling, rough where
> the USA was in the late 80?s and Europe during the early 90?s.

> The last awakening in the Middle East started about 1979 when the
> Iranian revolution occurred. Israel along the rest of the middle
> east seem to be on the same saeculum, Old Toby same some
> observations on Israeli history that seem to support general
> Middle Eastern saeculum. The last awakening there saw some massive
> spritual and political upheval, not unlike what America
> experienced during the 1960's.
I fully agree that Israel and Palestine are on a common timeline
which is different from the Ottoman timeline, and I agree that Israel
/ Palestine are in either an unraveling or crisis period, their last
crisis war having been in the 1940s, reaching a climax a year after
the partitioning of Palestine in 1948.

However, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Iran-Iraq
war was a crisis war -- see my message to Bob Butler a few messages
back, and take a look at the timeline.

Below is my graphic showing showing the crisis wars since the middle
ages. Israel and Palestine are on the World War II timeline with
western Europe, and Iran, Iraq and Turkey are on the World War I
timeline with eastern Europe.

I would add that I believe the situation in the Mideast in the 1940s
is more complicated that this brief summary. The accounts of the
Palestine war at that time appear to indicate that the war was a
crisis war for the Jews and a mid-cycle war for the Palestinians.
This actually could make sense as follows: The Palestinians were on
the WW I timeline along with the Ottomans, and the Jews were on a
Western Europe timeline, because of the massive Jewish migration
following Nazi persecution in the 1930s. At any rate, this would be
a typical "merging timelines" situation, putting the Palestinians and
Jews on the same timeline.

So I haven't seen your old messages, but I suspect that we're
probably pretty much in agreement if you split the Jew / Palestine
timeline off from the Iran / Iraq / Ottoman timeline.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

-----------------------------------------