I see on Amazon that Neil Howe and Peter Peterson are planning to re-release their 1989 On Borrowed Time: How the Growth in Entitlement Spending Threatens America's Future with a May 2004 publishing date.

Does anyone know anything about this? Is Neil thinking the Great Devaluation is right around the corner and putting out an updated version of the book now?

I see on Amazon that Neil Howe and Peter Peterson are planning to re-release their 1989 On Borrowed Time: How the Growth in Entitlement Spending Threatens America's Future with a May 2004 publishing date.

Does anyone know anything about this? Is Neil thinking the Great Devaluation is right around the corner and putting out an updated version of the book now?

Sure, it's a rant. But it looks like a decent analysis to me.

**For Discussion Purposes Only**



US headed for Chapter 11
It's just a question of when
by Prisoner50X, Unknown News

Aug. 20, 2004

[Warning: amateur theorizing follows!]

June trade deficit: $55.8-billion.

July budget deficit: $69.16-billion.

One reason why the trade deficit refuses to "adjust" (to balanced imports and exports) is that the US dollar is not falling. A falling dollar would presumably make Japanese and Chinese goods more expensive and would force Americans to purchase less from abroad. And it would make American products cheaper for Japanese and Chinese (the yen and the yuan would be worth more $$$).

But not only is the US dollar being propped up by foreign central banks, their purchases of our government debt, (our treasury bonds,) are helping to keep US interest rates low. Cheap credit!

Reminds me of the guy who got rip-roaring drunk and purchased a fully-equipped new truck using his credit cards. When he sobered up, though, there was hell to pay at home.

Which is what Americans may face when they sober up and decide to quit borrowing from their descendants...

Here is how the game works...

Japan prints yen (electronically, perhaps issuing themselves 10 year bonds payable to themselves for purposes of keeping score and maintaining appearances). They then sell yen, buy $US and use the $US to purchase 10 year US treasury notes.

10 year US treasuries yield 4.21% interest, as of today (8/17), whereas Japanese 10 year government bonds yield only 1.61%. [LINK]

That leaves a (carry trade) profit of 2.6% for the Japanese government, assuming that the value of the US dollar doesn't fall more than that 2.6%.

But since they are doing this precisely TO prop up the US dollar, they come out even or only slightly down. And even if they lose a little bit of money they maintain their industries and jobs while the US continues to export only our factories and deeds of trust!

Easy credit: It kills you every time.

Drop in here, wherein Japanese purchases of US debt are discussed in bearish fashion (credit due...ooops).

But here is the real kicker, FYI...

That 4.21% interest the US government pays to Japan -- for the next 10 years -- cannot be used to cut taxes, pay down the national debt, re-train our workers, etc. Instead, by paying the money to the Japanese government the US government is actually subsidizing cheap credit for Americans...

In other words, the US government is borrowing trillions of dollars to help reduce prices for Americans who purchase Japanese (and Chinese) products -- and thereby are helping to eliminate their own futures.

So, instead of Joe Sixpack having to pay 8% to buy his Toyota SUV on credit, the US government kicks in a subsidy and reduces the rate to 6%! That raises everyone else's share of the national debt, and helps prevent American companies from being able to compete in the world marketplace![/url]

A rant or not - it makes many good points. Remember the archetypical ranter at the city gates - he is usually alone in his opinions and scoffed at...while the rest of the populace eats, drinks, and makes merry.

What a great site! Thanks WJB for turning us on to it!

Originally Posted by casewestwill

A rant or not - it makes many good points. Remember the archetypical ranter at the city gates - he is usually alone in his opinions and scoffed at...while the rest of the populace eats, drinks, and makes merry.

What a great site! Thanks WJB for turning us on to it!

You're welcome and I'm glad you like the site. There sure is a lot of good stuff here, eh?

I'm curious: Who is "us" and did I talk to you about the Fourth Turning somewhere out there in the non-virtual world?

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by casewestwill

A rant or not - it makes many good points. Remember the archetypical ranter at the city gates - he is usually alone in his opinions and scoffed at...while the rest of the populace eats, drinks, and makes merry.

What a great site! Thanks WJB for turning us on to it!

You're welcome and I'm glad you like the site. There sure is a lot of good stuff here, eh?

I'm curious: Who is "us" and did I talk to you about the Fourth Turning somewhere out there in the non-virtual world?

WJB - The site is great. The only place I've seen a total casualty count of OIF. A thousand casualties doesn't sound so bad (or does it? ), but add Iraqi casualties, civilians, and serious injuries on both sides and you have something that can be only be described as a serious debacle. God help us. We need many more such sites.

By "us", I meant those of us who post on this site. I figure that anyone with any curiosity at all would search and find...so you indirectly "turned us on to it" - and no, we have never spoken.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by casewestwill

A rant or not - it makes many good points. Remember the archetypical ranter at the city gates - he is usually alone in his opinions and scoffed at...while the rest of the populace eats, drinks, and makes merry.

What a great site! Thanks WJB for turning us on to it!

You're welcome and I'm glad you like the site. There sure is a lot of good stuff here, eh?

I'm curious: Who is "us" and did I talk to you about the Fourth Turning somewhere out there in the non-virtual world?

WJB - The site is great. The only place I've seen a total casualty count of OIF. A thousand casualties doesn't sound so bad (or does it? ), but add Iraqi casualties, civilians, and serious injuries on both sides and you have something that can be only be described as a serious debacle. God help us. We need many more such sites.

By "us", I meant those of us who post on this site. I figure that anyone with any curiosity at all would search and find...so you indirectly "turned us on to it" - and no, we have never spoken.

Cool.