I have no problem with this. I would just like to have a professional, direct, two-way exchange. If that's not possible, I am on the record as being fine with that. It's not part of my life's mission to worry about Generational Dynamics. But I catagorically don't want to be threatened anymore. Ideas should be exchanged freely.Originally Posted by Webmaster
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Dear Sean,
I'm going to tackle your 8 questions again. Let's call this a
"progress report" rather than a set of answers, in order to set
expectations properly. And if I sometimes sound pompous it's because
I'm really proud of the work I've done, just as you might sound
pompous when you describe how proud you are of your new daughter.
1. With regard to McLoughlin and related comments, you and I have no
common ground. For me, the English Civil War cannot be anything but
a crisis war. The same is true for King Philips' War and the War of
the Spanish Succession. The Glorious Revolution cannot be anything
but an awakening. Now, if we can't agree on these major things,
there's just no point in discussing the minor things.
It's as if you and I are on different planets. You look out your
window and see red trees, and I look out my window and see blue
trees, and we get into an argument over the color of trees. We can't
settle it because we're looking at different trees. Or, (another
analogy), it's like arguing whether whether Christianity is better
than Judaism or vice versa -- at some point you just have to give up
and agree to disagree.
This discussion has been going on for two years or so, and I believe
I've probably posted over a million words in this thread alone on the
subject. I simply have no more to add to what I've already written.
There is literally almost nothing more to be said.
There is one interesting related subject that never get's discussed,
and that's the relationship between Scotland and England from the days
of Mary Queen of Scots (1560s) to the final resolution in the 1700s
decade. That subject never gets discussed in this forum, because it
can't be discussed without resolving the ECW issue.
2. It's come as a total surprise to me in the last week that David
Kaiser and others now recognize a separate East European timeline.
The reason that this is a big surprise to me is that I've been
bringing this up for 2 1/2 years at various times in this forum and
I've never gotten anything but grief. At any rate, nothing like this
is recognized in TFT, which is the point I was making.
The fall of Constantinople (1453) was an epochal event that was felt
around the world because it finally meant the end of the Roman
Empire, and the rise of the (Muslim) Ottoman Empire. The Muslims won
battle after battle and war after war -- until the war with the Holy
League (1683-99). Even today, you'll find Muslim scholars who will
say that this war was the greatest disaster to strike Islam in the
last millennium. It stopped the Muslim advance into Europe, and
firmly established Europe as Christian, with a fault line in the
Balkans that keeps renewing the war. The Ottoman empire retreated
after that war, until its final collapse in 1922.
Now, I'm just saying that this timeline has to be recognized. I call
that an anomaly in TFT, but call it something else if you wish. And
it has to be more than just recognized. The eastern and western
European timelines are equally important, and they have to handled
and related, because neither can be understood without the other.
That's what I've tried to do.
3. With regard to the differences between the TFT and GD
generational models, I'll repeat and summarize the answer I gave to
Matt: I separated Generations and TFT into two parts: data and
model. I assumed that Strauss and Howe's data, collected by reading
histories and diaries, to be correct. I assumed that if they made
any errors at all, it was in defining their generational model, based
on the data. I always assume that their data is correct, but when
there's an inconsistency or contradiction in their model, it's the
model rather than the data that needs to be corrected.
I approach this as a mathematical logician. The generational model
must satisfy certain conditions: its assumptions must be consistent
(contain no contradictions), and the model must be "true" in the real
world. The first of these two conditions is certainly true, and as
for the second, I've tested the model against the real world in three
different ways: (1) By showing that Strauss and Howe's data is true
in the model; (2) by showing that there are 100+ crisis wars
throughout history that are consistent with the model; and (3) by
showing that "current events" are consistent with the model - the
latter being done on a daily basis on my web site. These three things
are not mathematical proof of the model's validity in the real world
(indeed, no such proof is possible), but they provide overwhelming
evidence of its validity.
In days gone by when people used to ask me what mathematical logic
was about, I used to begin by joking that it was the most useless
branch of mathematics because it had absolutely no applications
whatsoever to the real world. As I now approach the end of my
career, it's unbelievably thrilling to me that suddenly I've
discovered that not only is there an application for mathematical
logic, but it's a huge application that models how the entire world
works. There's no reason why this should be exciting to anyone but
me, but to me it's unbelievably exciting.
Sean, may I make a suggestion? I assume you spend so much time in
this thread to learn something. For a couple of months, instead of
just posting "objections," why don't you try to understand the GD
model? Read through my book and ask me questions about it. If you
must, make them hypothetical questions ("Assuming your psychopathic
model works, then what's the meaning of X?") Learn enough about it so
that at least we'll be on the same planet. After that, you'll be able
to post "objections" that will be more closely related to the model,
and if there's a flaw, then you'll have a better chance of finding
it.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Re: Bird flu
Dear Kiff,
In my last message, I referenced an article that considers bird flu
concerns as just hype.
It's an 11/21 article called Fuss and Feathers by Michael
Fumento, appearing in The Weekly Standard.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Conten...zwhbe.asp?pg=1
This article is generating quite a bit of hostile reaction in some
quarters, because of its naïveté and technical errors. The errors
are well beyond my own knowledge of molecular biology, so I can't
really comment on them.
The following is a "Fuss and Feathers" thread in a the "Flu Clinic"
discussion board, one of the most interesting bird flu discussion
forums. http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=28085
This thread contains possibly the most well-written summary of the
bird flu situation that I've seen anywhere. Here it is:
- > "It still baffles me that so many people -- who are watching this
> thing unfolding right before their eyes -- still insist that it
> just isn't happening. It's a cliche, now, but from all
> indications, any fully rational being ought to conclude that
> there is "a perfect viral storm," brewing out there. A great many
> professional people -- far more informed, and in much better
> circumstances than I (in which to draw their conclusions) -- are
> arriving at exactly that conclusion. I am trusting my own
> instincts, combined with what I see happening, here, to make my
> decisions about how to prepare for what I regard as the
> inevitable outcome of all the rapidly unfolding events.
> There's been a steady -- and accelerating -- series of events,
> over the last several years, that herald the approach of a
> pandemic. To date, there is not one mitigating fact that can be
> pointed to, to justify a conclusion that militates against such a
> pandemic. There have been no "victories," in the various battles
> and skirmishes, with H5N1, to date. And you would have to go at
> least a few years out, to find any on the "horizon." Anyone who
> is not at least partially "awake," at this point, is simply
> residing in a "fool's paradise. "It can't happen...because it
> hasn't happened, yet," is a vacuous argument that just won't cut
> it."
This remarkable piece of prose precisely captures my own feelings on
the subject.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Did you really get grief on this point? I thought it was a great new insight when I first read it on this board and I still do. It isn't recognized in TFT because TFT only dealt with the US and GB (or is it just England?). One of the major activities on this board is trying to figure out what turnings other countries are in, so I find it hard to believe that you were blasted for doing the same thing.
I think that some of the problems you've run into on this board is because you don't seem to read more than one or two threads. So you were completely unaware of the work that Sean, Mike and others have done to address problems they've seen in the theory, like shortening generations and the civil war "anomoly."
Jeff '61
John, what would you say about the Battle of Lepanto in 1571?The Muslims won battle after battle and war after war -- until the war with the Holy League (1683-99).
I've seen these other subjects discussed in this thread and wanted to make a couple comments:
On the Principle of Maximum Ruin: We could say that the degree of ruin is a function of the level of participation and the amount of debt used by the participants. An easy example to understand would be the situation in real estate today. Home owernership is at record levels. The demographics are such that the age group that tends to purchase large homes and make other real estate investments is probably at a maximum. People seem to have no qualms about going into debt to purchase property and it is easy to borrow money. When the level of participation is low, people tend to sharpen their pencils and keep their heads screwed on straight. When the level of participation moves toward a maximum and if the demand from that inflow of participants pushes prices up, there tend to be fewer people who buy on the basis of valuation and return on investment and more who buy on the basis of historical returns. Once the level of maximum participation is reached (probably happened this summer in real estate), demand falls and then if prices fall it can lead to a vicious spiral of debt liquidation and further price declines. The stock market is a bit different in that people aren't going into much debt directly to buy stocks but the income and liquidity of the average household is such that stocks would probably be sold to raise cash if real estate prices were to fall enough to begin a downward spiral.
On bird flu: I work with cable news on and the TV muted for at least 8 hours each day. When something of importance like bird flu is discussed, I turn the mute button off. Dozens of experts have discussed bird flu in the past few months. There is absolutely no question that the threat is real. I can understand why people don't believe it. If I was still doing my old specialist engineering job, the possibility of a bird flu pandemic would seem very far removed from reality.
On the 90 year cycle: I identified a 90 year cycle also; actually, I have it as 89 years, but close enough. That's one of 12 long term cycles of greater than 20 years that I've identified and ranked. The ranking is done on the basis of whether I can find a fundamental underlying reason for the existence of the cycle and my subjective view as to how reliable the cycle is, or, in other words, my wild guess as to how realiable I think it is while trying hard to suspend my beliefs. Any cycle for which a fundamental underlying reason exists is weighted higher than any cycle for which I can't find one. I don't know of any fundamental reason why an 89 or 90 year cycle would exist but it has tended to be fairly reliable. Before looking for a stock market high in 2019 based on an 89 year cycle, it might be a good idea to see how things develop as we move toward 2010, or 89 years from the severe contraction that occurred in 1921. Does anyone know of a fundamental reason why an 89 or 90 year cycle would exist?
John,
Thank you for your post. I will attempt to reply to this over the Thanksgiving holiday
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Dear Jeff,
That isn't entirely true. I do check into a number of threads from
time to time and read what's going on, and I do know what Mike and
some others are doing. But I do miss things.
In what threads were WW I and the East European timeline discussed?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Miller's Law
John Xenakis wrote:
"Sean, may I make a suggestion? I assume you spend so much time in
this thread to learn something. For a couple of months, instead of
just posting "objections," why don't you try to understand the GD
model? Read through my book and ask me questions about it. If you
must, make them hypothetical questions ("Assuming your psychopathic
model works, then what's the meaning of X?") Learn enough about it so
that at least we'll be on the same planet. After that, you'll be able
to post "objections" that will be more closely related to the model,
and if there's a flaw, then you'll have a better chance of finding
it.
Sincerely,
John "
One of the most useful things I ever learned was something called Miller's Law, as quoted to me by linguist/author Suzette Haden Elgin. It goes like this: "If you can't understand something, assume it's true. Then try to figure out what it could be true of."
The second most useful was out of an otherwise unremarkable political pamphlet of 1968. "Everyone does something for a reason. First find the reason, instead of just saying "[this person] is a (insert perjorative here)"
Like our webmaster - and like John in this quote - I would like to see these modes of thought used in order to add light and subtract heat.
On the other hand, if you all are in game mode, and keeping score by scoring points off each other (which is not always obvious), have fun!
Re: Miller's Law
One should be as cautious with this "Can't we all just get along" approach toward enlightened debate as one would grabbing a burning light bulb, without heat resistant gloves. The result would not be, obviously, much fun at all.
There's a whole section of the forum called Beyond America for discussing the Turnings of other countries. There's a thread on Russia and another on the Balkan's, although that one's pretty short. But my point was that I hadn't heard anyone put forth that for some of the countries involved, WWI was during a 4th turning. As far as I remember there wasn't much argreement on the Russian turnings.Dear Jeff,
That isn't entirely true. I do check into a number of threads from
time to time and read what's going on, and I do know what Mike and
some others are doing. But I do miss things.
In what threads were WW I and the East European timeline discussed?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
I believe the old forums had a lot more discussion of other countries, but I don't know if those are online anymore.
Jeff '61
Dear Clark,
The Muslims did indeed lose the Battle of Lepanto to the Holy League
in 1571, but it was just a temporary setback.
Here's how Stearns describes it:
The Muslims had occasional setbacks, but they were considered pretty
much invincible until their disastrous defeat in the war with the Holy
League (1683-99).
You say that the degree of ruin is a function of two things: the level
of participation and the amount of debt used by the participants.
That's probably true, but I see the Principle of Maximum Ruin as
having a heavy psychological component. Even during a crash, it's
possible to participate heavily and use credit, provided that one
does it extremely carefully and wisely.
That's why I'd have to add a third factor: credulity, a willingness
of investors to believe almost anything, no matter how idiotic.
What characterizes what's going on today, and what went on from
1928-33, is the incredibly credulity of so many people.
You have only to look at the big jump in the stock market earlier
this week on the same day that General Motors announced huge layoffs,
even though the stock market is currently overpriced at 220% of book
value (same as 1929), and P/E ratios have been over 20 for over ten
years.
Or the way that Fed Chairman nominee Ben Bernanke announced that
America's astronomically high levels of public debt are caused by a
"global saving glut" in other countries.
This kind of utter credulity has to be factored into the Principle of
Maximum Ruin.
There's a lot of credulity going on with bird flu as well. It's a
characteristic of the Fourth Turning because the leaders are Prophets
and Nomads who have always had Heroes and Artists to take care of
them, and now have no idea how to take of themselves -- except by
expressing outrage when something goes wrong.
The mistake that almost everyone makes with stock market cycles is
that they fail to separate things out. There's no reason to believe
that stock market cycles have one fundamental cause; in fact there
are evidently at least two major stock market cycles, and they're
completely independent of one another:
- The Kondratiev cycles occur in 40-50 year cycles, and they appear
to be technology based.- The generational cycles occur occur in roughly 80 year cycles.
The past few are Tulipomania bubble (1637), South Sea Bubble (1721),
French Monarchy bankruptcy (1789), Hamburg Crisis of 1857, and 1929
Wall Street crash.
Here's a graph showing this for the last 130 years:
In this graph, notice how the green curve (the K-cycles) follow the
stock market very closely, provided that you ignore the two
generational cycles.
You say that your cycle has identified a high in 2018, but the
K-cycles are at a low at that time, so I don't know what's going on
in your data. However, if you've identified a 90-year cycle, my
guess is that one of your cycles equals two K-cycles.
When you're doing this kind of analysis, you also have to remember to
distinguish local cycles from global ones. Both of the two cycles
listed above are global, since technology trends spread globally and
so do major investing cycles.
However, nations and regions may have separate local cycles as well,
and they have to be identified and separated out if you're looking
local or regional stock prices.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Not a whig triumph
Lepanto
John,
Battle of Lepanto: I've read similar accounts and conclusions regarding the Battle of Lepanto. My conclusions are a bit different because I study the effects that events have on the cycle progression. The major cycle I am referring to in this case would be the Exploration/Commercial Age worldview cycle (my nomenclature). Within this cycle, I consider all of Europe to be the entity that we are looking at with respect to the Ottoman Empire. My understanding is that the Battle of Lepanto led to the bankruptcy of Spain and the continuation of the dominance of the Ottoman Empire within that region. However, that allowed the leading edge of Europe to move north where exploration and commerce could continue with less competition from southern Europe and less interference from the Ottoman Empire. In other words, the Battle of Lepanto led to a weaker southern Europe but a stronger overall Europe because the important functional activities of exploration and commerce in Europe as a whole could no longer be constrained as much by the Ottoman Empire. The Battle of Lepanto facilitated the expansion and dominance of Europe long before the results became evident. But remember, I'm just an engineer.
Maximum Ruin: I think a psychological component is inherent within participation level and willingness to take on debt. Participation level and debt level are more quantifiable. Whether they're directly proportional (edit--to some measure of psychology if it could be developed) is hard to say but I would imagine it's pretty close.
90 Year Cycle: That was mentioned by another poster a few pages back as a basis for the stock market making a high in 2019. I'm not strongly advocating a 90 year cycle. I am acknowledging that I also believe that it may exist. I've studied 4 long term cycles besides the Kondratieff Cycle and the Generational Cycle that may have fundamental influences on the economy and 6 other cycles that may be valid but don't seem to have any fundamental basis. The 90 year cycle is one of those 6. One of the other 4 is the birthrate cycle, which I've mentioned before. Another is the worldview cycle, which I've also mentioned. Most people seem to focus in on one or two cycles that they have a particular attraction to. Like I said previously, I tried to suspend my beliefs and attempt to develop an objective ranking system for all 12 cycles (the weighting I put on the 90 year cycle in this analysis was 7.5%). This resulted in a distribution of probabilities as to where the location of the next highs and lows in the economic cycle might lie. Any attempt for one individual to do something like this results in a lot of bias. Witness the poll on this site that consisted of 10 questions regarding whether we are still in a third turning or whether we are in a fourth turning. I think we're still strongly third turning but there sure are a lot of people who disagree with that. My biased analysis shows that the next high in the economic cycle will be 2005 or 2006 and the next low will take place between 2007 and 2010.
John,
Just to clarify, it was first mentioned here by Anthony and you asked him about it a few pages back. I had independently identified this cycle in my work prior to reading about it here.
If the cycles are separate, there isn't anything to preclude one cycle having a high within a certain time window and another cycle having a low that overlaps the same time window. That may be one thing that helps cause sudden moves in prices at times versus seeing more "measured paces" at other times, to borrow a phrase. My work projects a K-cycle low in 2015 but I'm very flexible in looking that far ahead with a cycle like this. It could be 2018. Or it could be a double bottom.
My guess is that the 90 year cycle could have a generational basis within the agricultural economy and that it is slowly fading away. Here's the discussion--it was back on page 34.
John J. Xenakis wrote:
Dear Anthony,
Anthony '58 II wrote:
> In a previous post (can't remember on which thread - it was a long
> time ago), I predicted that 2019 (for emphasis, October 2019
> specifically) will play host to the next big crash.
> Guess we won't find out for 15 years whether I'm right - but for
> now I'm sticking by it (and it may be preceded by a "foreshock" in
> 2017 which will end up being ignored).
Where did you get the dates 2019 and 2017 from?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
My inspiration for this was Dr. Ravi Batra of The Great Depression of 1990 fame; in that book, he mentions how the economy did actually recover immediately following the Panic of 1837 (in a chart in the book he calls this recovery the "Cotton Boom" of 1838-39) but then in the autumn of 1839 the economy went down for the count, and it required the Mexican War to get us out of the resulting depression.
Thus 1839 + 90 = 1929 + 90 = 2019.
And I also figured out where Dr. Batra went wrong in his prediction that the 1990s would play host to a "great" depression: He counted the 1870s as a "great depression" decade when he shouldn't have - the Panic of (September) 1873 did spawn a downturn that lasted until the spring of 1879; however, it was neither anywhere as deep as the depressions of the 1840s and 1930s, nor it did take a war to end it.
Hence the true "great depression cycle" is 90 years long - not alternatively 30 or 60 years long as Dr. Batra claimed - with the next Great Crash due in (the autumn of) 2019 (and the possibility of the 1837-39 scenario replicating itself providing the impetus for my use of 2017 in the analogy).
Furthermore, all of this can be neatly slotted into a plausible 4T morphology: War dominates the early Crisis (indeed we already have the war), with the Crash of 2019 marking the start of a classic post-war depression (similar to that of the early 1920s), with the recovery from said depression (projected by me for the spring of 2023, if for no other reason than the fact that the economy stopped contracting in the spring of 1933 after having crashed in 1929) constituting the Crisis' resolution (the 1958 cohort conveniently turning 65 in 2023).
Dear Clark,
It's not possible for a single battle, which is basically a chaotic
event, to have been the cause of so much.
The Battle of Lepanto was not the cause of the bankruptcy of Spain.
Spain went bankrupt because all the other countries of Europe were
having a global savings glut. Errrr, Spain went bankrupt because it
was on a wild spending spree very similar to the wild spending spree
that America is on today. If it hadn't been the Battle of Lepanto,
it would have been something else.
If you're trying to analyze the 1500s, you really have to understand
what was going on with Spain. The following information is edited
from my first book on Generational Dynamics:
*** The Spanish Inquisition and the Reconquest -- 1480s-1490s
As the old compromise unraveled completely, the riots against the
Conversos [Jews who had converted to Catholicism] got worse, and a
common charge against the Conversos was that they were "false
Christians." The most common charge against Conversos was that of
"Judaizing," that is, of falsely pretending conversion and secretly
practicing Jewish rites.
This is what gave rise to the Spanish Inquisition. The idea was to
have an official body empowered to determine whether those who had
claimed to convert to Catholicism had really converted. As new
pogroms began in the 1470s and 1480s, the Inquisition was
particularly targeted to find the "Judaizers." At first, the
Inquisition was directed specifically at Conversos, but later was
extended to unconverted Jews. Thousands of Conversos and Jews were
executed under the Inquisition, and entire Jewish communities were
eliminated.
The new crisis war reached its climax in the year 1492, when three
different things happened that affected Spain for the entire next
80-year cycle:
(*) A final decree was issued, expelling all Jews who refused to
convert. Hundreds of thousands of Jews were forced to leave the
country.
(*) Christopher Columbus left Spain and discovered the New World.
(*) The Reconquest of Spain from the Muslims was completed, with the
expulsion of the Muslims from Grenada.
With regard to the last point, Muslims had crossed over to southern
Spain from Africa as early as the 700s, and had conquered almost all
of Spain. The Catholics had dreamed of reconquering Spain from the
Muslims for centuries. The Reconquest was finally completed in
1492.
*** The Golden Age of Spain and Manifest Destiny
We now need to step back and look at the reasons why Spain became the
most powerful nation in Europe during the 1500s.
For two very important reasons, Spain is unique among the West
European countries:
(*) It's somewhat geographically isolated from the rest of Europe, on
the Iberian Peninsula. Geographic isolation affected Spain almost as
much as it affected Britain.
(*) It was occupied by Muslims for eight centuries, from the 700s to
the 1400s.
Throughout history, some invasions are acceptable to the people being
invaded and some are not. When the Romans conquered Spain in the
second century BC, the Spanish initially resisted, but later adopted
the Romans' cultural characteristics of family, language, religion,
law and municipal government.
However, things were not so easy for the Muslims, when they conquered
Spain in the early 700s. By that time, Spain was a clearly Christian
society, and had no desire to convert to Islam.
Islam began in the Mideast in the early 600s. The Muslims spread
rapidly all across Northern Africa, jumped the Strait of Gibraltar in
711, and soon conquered almost all of Spain.
Spain flourished under the Muslims, who built schools and libraries,
cultivated mathematics and science, and developed commerce and
industry.
But the desire for "Reconquest" by the Christians was always foremost
in the minds of the Spanish people. The Christians reconquered bits
and pieces of Muslim-occupied territory over the centuries.
In 1469, Spain was united by the marriage of Isabella and Ferdinand,
the Catholic Monarchs of two Spanish kingdoms, Castile and Aragon,
respectively. Thus, the crisis war we described above, triggered by
rioting against upper class Conversos and unconverted Jews, also had
another component: there was to fierce infighting among other royal
relatives of the two Monarchs. But Spanish unity prevailed, and in
1478, the Spanish Inquisition was authorized, with the purpose of
investigating the sincerity of Muslims and Jews who claimed conversion
to Christianity. In 1492, the Catholics were able to complete the
Christian Reconquest of Spain from the Muslims.
As we've pointed out, a bloody, violent crisis war changes the
character of a nation, and the nation retains that character
throughout the next 80-year cycle. That's what happened with the
1480s civil war. Spain saw itself as the home of true Catholicism,
and saw itself as having the duty to spread Catholicism throughout
Europe. Thus, the crisis war that climaxed with the Reconquest and
the expulsion of the Jews in 1492 resulted in a new Catholic Spain.
"It was at this moment that the concept of manifest destiny - so easy
to take hold in any country at the height of its power - sank deep
into the Spanish conscience," says Manuel Fernandez Alvarez of
the University of Salamanca. "The Spaniard felt he had a godly mission
to carry out, and this was to make it possible for him to withstand
bitter defeats in later years."
During the 1500s, there were three factors that fed into this sense
of manifest destiny:
(*) The Muslims had recently (in 1453) captured Constantinople,
destroying what was left of the original Roman Empire. Spain actively
defended against further Muslim incursions into Europe.
(*) Beginning with Martin Luther's challenge to the Catholic Church
in 1517, the Protestant Reformation was challenging the Catholic
Church throughout Europe. The Spanish Monarchs felt they could play a
key role in stopping the Protestants.
(*) There were other worlds to explore, particularly the New World.
The Spaniards initiated active development of the New World, with the
intention of colonizing and spreading Christianity.
Immediately after the Reconquest, Spain sent Columbus to find a new
route to East Asia, and Columbus discovered America in 1492.
New discoveries and conquests came in quick succession. Vasco Nunez
de Balboa reached the Pacific in 1513, and the survivors of Ferdinand
Magellan's expedition completed the circumnavigation of the globe in
1522. In 1519, the conquistador Hernando Cortes subdued the Aztecs in
Mexico with a handful of followers, and between 1531 and 1533,
Francisco Pizzaro overthrew the empire of the Incas and established
Spanish dominion over Peru.
These were heady discoveries in the days following the Reconquest,
and yet Spain's "manifest destiny" plans might have led to nothing
except for something that Spain itself considered to be a gift from
God to help them achieve that destiny: The Spaniards were able to
bring thousands of tons of silver and gold from the New World back to
Europe.
This was Spain's Golden Age. Spain became wealthy, and led Europe in
music, art, literature, theater, dress, and manners in the 1500s. It
exercised military strength throughout Europe, and led the fight
against the Protestant Reformation.
However, problems arose. Spain's imported wealth was wasted on
consumption, with nothing saved or invested. The precious metals
created price inflation throughout Europe. Once again, as usually
happens in any society's generational cycle, the controls and
restrictions that are imposed just after a crisis war become unraveled
late in the cycle. Money was used to paper over Spain's own internal
divisions, and to fund more military adventures.
In 1568, with the Inquisition becoming ever more intrusive, serious
rebellions broke out among the Muslims who had remained in Spain after
the Reconquest. This led to mass expulsions throughout Spain of
Muslims, leading to exodus of hundreds of thousands of Muslims, even
those who had become devout Christians.
In the midst of the increased turmoil, Spain attempted to continue to
serve God with its military might.
Disaster came in 1588 when Spain decided to invade England, which had
succumbed to the Reformation in 1533. The plan was to overthrow the
Protestant Queen Elizabeth and install a Catholic King. Spain's huge
Invincible Armada sailed up the English Channel and waited to be
joined by transports with invasion soldiers. The soldiers never
arrived. The English fleet trapped the Armada and scattered it. The
Armada fled into the open sea, where a storm drove the ships into the
rocks on the shores of Scotland.
The crisis war ending in England's defeat of the Spanish Armada was an
enormous victory that signaled the decline of Spain as the leading
military power in Europe.
This provides an important lesson for America today. Since World War
II, this has been the Golden Age of America, and just as Spain felt
obligated to spread Catholicism around Europe, we feel obligated to
spread democracy around the world. Spain was too ambitious, and came
to disaster; America may do so as well.
I really don't see what evidence you're presenting to back up this
claim.
First, you've only mentioned two data points, and you can't conclude
anything from that.
Second, you're claiming a cycle of exactly 90 years, and none of
these things are that exact. Cycle lengths will vary + or - 10% or
more -- actually, they'll vary according to a standard normal
distribution. The only way you could get a cycle length exactly the
same each time is to tie it to an astronomical event, such as the
passing of a comet near the earth, like Halley's Comet.
Third, you haven't provided any theoretical support for your claim.
Why would this cycle even occur?
Based on the information you've provided, I would have to assume that
you've found some data points that accidentally provide a temporary
pattern, but that there's no underlying reason.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Re: Spain & USA
Excellent point, this warning from history.
Re: Spain & USA
Yes. What do you suppose our "Battle of Lepanto" will be?
John
True, I didn't present any evidence. I repeated the two data points that were posted on page 34 and stated that I had independently identified a similar cycle. I wasn't asking you or anybody else to make a decision as to the validity based on what was presented. I was asking if anyone knows of a fundamental reason as to why a cycle of that length might exist. 1842-1932 and 1893-1982 would be two other examples. There are others. Probably best to dig in and take a look for yourself. You might see something I didn't.
That's the question I asked originally. Any ideas? Anybody? You don't need to confine yourself to what was presented.
Bankrupt is the wrong word for me to have used in this context. Spain was probably already bankrupt before 1571 just as we were bankrupt when we went into Iraq. But was Lepanto the event that created the recognition on the part of the Dutch that Spain was overextended and that they could continue their revolt? Or perhaps overextended Spain enough that they could not control Holland (without anyone really recognizing it at the time)?
This evening, David Letterman played "Know your current events,"
where he asks audience members questions about current events, and
they have to figure out the answer.
Here's one of the questions this evening:
Letterman: What was the event that millions of Americans celebrated
this week?
Guest: Thanksgiving?
Letterman: No. The correct answer is: They celebrated the last
Thanksgiving before we all die from bird flu.
Ooooooooh.
Anyway, China is planning to vaccinate 14 billion chickens for bird
flu. Here's a picture of one of the more inquisitive chickens:
John
Here's to hoping that the Rock Cornish Hen I stuffed yesterday morning was healthy :shock: :lol: 8)This evening, David Letterman played "Know your current events,"
where he asks audience members questions about current events, and
they have to figure out the answer.
Here's one of the questions this evening:
Letterman: What was the event that millions of Americans celebrated
this week?
Guest: Thanksgiving?
Letterman: No. The correct answer is: They celebrated the last
Thanksgiving before we all die from bird flu.
Ooooooooh.
Anyway, China is planning to vaccinate 14 billion chickens for bird
flu. Here's a picture of one of the more inquisitive chickens:
John
"Better hurry. There's a storm coming. His storm!!!" :-O -Abigail Freemantle, "The Stand" by Stephen King
Dear Kevin,
If you purchased a commercial product anywhere in the world you
should have no worries, because the birds should be tested for bird
flu and other diseases long before they reach the supermarket.
If you live in Europe, Asia, or Africa, and you obtain a bird from
your own or a neighbor's farm, you should have the flock tested for
bird flu before handling it. These days, anyone in the world raising
any kind of bird should be well aware of the precautions that need to
be taken.
It's possible, though still rare, to catch bird flu from an infected
bird when you're handling it and preparing it. But cooking the bird
kills any viruses, so cooked birds are perfectly safe to eat.
The bottom line is: Having Thanksgiving or Christmas or other holiday
turkey or other bird is perfectly safe.
John
90 years is a multiple of the Saros cycle, which is an astronomical eclipse cycle. As is 72 years, which I seem to recall has been discussed in other places on this site.
As an interesting aside, the Panic of 1857, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, and the 9-11 attacks were separated by 72 years, or 4 Saros cycles.
Hi John,
Sorry I didn't respond to your last email. It was marked as new mail, but I thought it was your old one. I am dense.
I'm glad to see that you and Sean have "worked things out" and this thread has become a little more interesting.
Right now I am really busy. I am trying to get a job, do well in school, and trying to prevent my parents from getting a divorce (I'm sure you know enough about that subject :wink: )
As for the Indians, you wrote "Could you do just one thing? I'd really appreciate the Indian tribe timelines that you've identified, so that I can add them to Chapter 9 (List of Crisis Wars) in my book. Just the names of the tribes and the crisis wars and dates would be great."
Well, I don't know why you asked for this. I am not through with this research. If you are planning to get your book out soon I suppose I could give the ones I have now within a week but I'd prefer to fill in the holes.
Finding the crisis wars is hard, but creating a narrative is near impossible. For an influential tribe, such as the Iroquois, a narrative can be created... but for most tribes I can only write a couple sentences unless I really researched, and I don't have the time for that.
I don't know much about economics, but as for "maximum ruin", the DJIA is nearing 11,000. I just wish I could understand why.
Gotta run,
later.
Dear Clark,
So what are you arguing? Are you arguing that investors keep track
of Saros cycles, and then change their investing behavior when a
lunar eclipse occurs at a certain node with the moon at a certain
distance from the earth?
http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...s/SEsaros.html
I don't think so.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
