That's the saeculum for you.Originally Posted by 1990
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That's the saeculum for you.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
I'd rather have tadpoles with Gwyneth Paltrow.
Also, with regards to Europe, do you basically mean that all of Europe is entering Crisis? Everything from Ireland, Scandinavia, and Portugal in the west to Russia in the east? Europe has so many countries, I want to be sure if you think there are big exceptions (for example, I know you would put most of the Balkans in blue for High).
Yep. If America's awakening ended in 1984, it wouldn't be surprising that China's ended in 1989. Their civil war ended in 1949.
All of Europe is on the World War One or World War Two timeline. World War One hasn't been replayed in Europe, with the exception of the Bosnian War. In the Middle-East, it was replayed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
The major countries experienced real crisis wars, and the tiny countries' timelines have been integrated into the regions surrounding them.
Last edited by Matt1989; 10-25-2006 at 11:54 AM.
So, bear with me here. You're saying that basically all of Europe is in Crisis, with the possible exception of the areas affected by Kosovo in the '90s.
No problem. The Bosnian War was a crisis war, without a doubt. I can't think of any other exceptions in Europe besides the countries affected by that war. I doubt Greece and Turkey are in a 1T now, but the rest of the Balkans should be.
System Dynamics and the Failure of Macroeconomics Theory
To all:
For a long time, I've been wanting to write something called the
"Generational Dynamics theory of macroeconomics," something that
would give a comprehensive explanation about generational issues
should be merged into mainstream macroeconomic theory, and why it's
essential that this be done.
I finally got it done and posted it, under the title "System Dynamics
and the Failure of Macroeconomics Theory"
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/....i.macro061025
To anyone here who's interested in macroeconomics theory, I hope
you'll read it and tell me what you think.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Why do you doubt that Turkey was affected? The PKK was a huge part of the Bosnian conflict. Turkey regarded them and their leader Ocalan as an existential threat, and responded with the expected genocidal fury (heavily funded by the US.) Their Crisis ended when Ocalan was captured and sentenced to death in 1999. Now they are looking westward again, pushing forward on efforts to join the EU.
So, a rough timeline for Turkey is:
20s: 4T (collapse of Ottoman Empire, founding in 1923)
30s: 1T (Ataturk)
50s: 2T (war over Cyprus)
70s: 3T (military rule, establishment of PKK)
90s: 4T (war in Balkans and Transcaucasus)
00s: 1T (EU accession talks)
Yes we did!
Megadittoes. But man, that movie was a serious downer. Another reminder how life was "nasty, brutish and short" back then, even for royalty.
Yes we did!
Agreed, except I peg the end of the Awakening at 1982 meaning they're nearly a decade behind us. That would put their Crisis at circa 2012, not coincidentally the timeframe in which China has officially announced that they intend to be at naval parity with the US.
Agreed: Western Europe = WW2 timeline, Eastern Europe = WW1 timeline, Central Europe = ??
Yes we did!
The actual map
Here it is:
http://generationaldynamics.com/gdgraphics/gdworld.gif
Most of the world is still not accounted for, so I need a lot more help, but it's a start. Thanks to John for scaling it down from its original size.
The actual map
I would agree that Turkey entered its "crisis era" quite some time ago, but, much like Russia, it hasn't been completed yet. I'm looking for a climax, and I'm not seeing it. The actual "crisis war" has not yet begun.
This is much like Israel, who fought against Lebanon in a "crisis era." It wasn't their "crisis war" though. Same with Russia and Chechnya in the early 1990's.
As I wrote, Turkey's campaign against the Kurdish independence movement led by the PKK was genocidally brutal (entire villages burned, etc.) After two decades of this, the capture and sentencing of Ocalan was a huge event in Turkey and throughout Europe. It marked the effective end of the PKK. After that, US "foreign aid", which had run into the billions of dollars annually, dropped off dramatically. I think that marks a pretty obvious conclusion to the Crisis.
After that, Turkey turned decisively away from the US and toward Europe. When the US asked (demanded) to use Turkish bases to attack Iraq in 2003, the Turkish Parliament refused, even after being offered nearly $30 billion in "aid". Looks like a major saecular shift to me.
Last edited by Finch; 10-26-2006 at 01:32 PM.
Yes we did!
You seem pretty certain about this, huh? Do you have some sources or a good summary about the actual war? I'm interested in looking into this for myself.
Matt
You can take the liberty of filling in the rest of Europe. I think most of those not filled in fall in the WWI timeline, but regardless, they are all in a crisis era.
Okay, done. If this is wrong, it's your head.
Kate Winslett for me.
Your local general nuisance
"I am not an alter ego. I am an unaltered id!"
Quitting
Dear Mike,
I hope you won't quit. You've done a lot of work, and it would be a
shame to see that go to waste.
If I could make a suggestion, pull together all the various datasets
you've collected, and start by writing a narrative for each one --
where it came from, what it purports to measure, what time period,
what geographical region, what were the biases of the collector, and
so forth. Once all this data is properly documented, then it should
be possible to identify connections and trends.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Elizabeth
Dear Jenny,
Wow, if that picture is right, then she was super-hot. But I'm
having difficulty making something out -- isn't there something wrong
with her nose? Oh well, guys are never satisfied, are they.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Determining Turnings
Determining Turnings
Since the issue of determining turnings has come up, I thought I
would post the guidelines that I use. These guidelines seem to work
in all the cases I've seen, though they sometimes yield results that
are a few years different than what others might get.
It's worthwhile pointing out that there are two distinct methods for
determining where a particular country is at a particular time: (1) By
number of years since the last crisis war; or (2) By turning-specific
events. In practice, it's easiest to use the two methods together.
In Generational Dynamics, I do use the two methods together, and
estimate turnings and turning boundaries as follows:
- The Austerity/High period (first turning) begins just after the
smoke clears from the explosive climax of the crisis war. It's
"Austerity" for the survivors, who are still traumatized and will
devote their lives to keep it from happening again, and it's a "High"
for the Prophets, who feel contempt for the austere rules.- The Awakening period (second turning) begins 15-18 years later,
when the Prophets begin to make themselves felt. An Awakening can be
identified by "Awakening-type" events that are caused by a political
struggle between the war survivors and the Prophet generation.
Typical Awakening-type events are: Riots and demonstrations for
individual rights; greater prominence for gender issues; pro-war or
anti-war demonstrations -- the opposite of whatever their parents
prescribe. If there is violence in this period, it's "low-level
violence," punished by police action in specific cases.- "Awakening crisis": The Awakening seems almost always to climax
with an event the defines a winner between the older and younger
generations. This is sometimes called a "bloodless coup" or a "velvet
revolution" or an "internal revolution." Examples where the younger
generation won are: resignation of Richard Nixon; replacement of
Second Reich with Weimar Republic. Example where the older generation
won: Tienanmen Square massacre. I believe that the victory of the
older generation is a bad thing for a country, and foreshadows a civil
war in the crisis period.- I see the transition from Awakening to Unraveling (third turning)
to Crisis (fourth turning) to be a gradual one, without clear
boundaries. Basically, the austere rules set down in the first turning
begin to unravel almost as soon as they're enunciated. The Unraveling
officially begins 40 years after the end of the last crisis war. The
"Awakening crisis," which can occur before or after the Unraveling
period begins, is a much more important marker than the Unraveling era
itself. After the Awakening crisis, the austere rules that were set
down during the first turning real begin to unravel, and total
craziness sets in. Typical unraveling type events are: willingness to
compromise to the point of appeasement; economic bubble.- The Crisis Era (fourth turning) is in two parts that have to be
separated: before and after the regeneracy (where the real crisis war
begins).- The Crisis Era - Part I begins when the survivors of the last
crisis war all disappear (retire or die), all at the same time. This
is about 55-60 years after the end of the last crisis war. This
would be amended if the crisis war begins earlier than 55 years
after. Typical Crisis Era - Part I events are immigration laws,
signs of xenophobia including maltreatment of foreigners, emphasis on
stereotypical gender roles.- The Crisis Era - Part II begins with the regeneracy, when the new
crisis era really begins. Typical Crisis Era - Part II events are:
total war.- A fifth turning occurs if the Crisis Era goes by with no crisis
war. This is a distinctly different era from the others. Typical
fifth turning events: Suicide bombers.- From the point of view of determining long-term (multi-saecular)
generational timelines, the only important date is the date on which
the first turning begins.- It's impossible to enter a fifth turning except from a fourth; or
a fourth turning except from a third; or a third turning except from
a second; or a second turning except from a first.- However, it is possible to enter a first turning from another
turning when a massive population relocation occurs, destroying the
generational relationships that existed prior to the
relocation.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Dear Justin,
Have you taken into account the increasing xenophobia following the
Bali bombings?
What are you claiming is the last crisis war? The Afghan war?
That's a hard sell.
Also, how do you explain the increasing level of xenophobia
throughout Russia, most recently directed against Georgians?
Contrary to popular belief, I don't have a crystal ball. China is
going to be at war with India. Russia is India's defender.
Therefore, China will be at war with Russia.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Turkey and China
Dear Rick,
I'm not really going to disagree with you, especially since I've
changed my mind on this point one or two times, but my perception is
that the Turkey/PKK war was definitely a crisis war for the Kurds,
but not necessarily a crisis war for Turkey. I would expect a crisis
war for Turkey to involve Istanbul, and also involve some kind of
conflict with the Armenians. There might also be a replay of the
Crimean War.
The Turks are very touchy about the accusations of an Armenian
'genocide' in 1915. They claim that it was just another war, not a
genocide.
Here's a recent article from The New Anatolian on the subject:
> Back Corridors: Armenians and the 'poultry massacre'
> Ayla Ganioglu
> 02 October 2006
> Armenians and the 'poultry massacre'
> Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) Erzurum Deputy Ibrahim Ozdogan was one
> of the deputies angered by the remarks of Pope Benedict XVI about
> Islam and the Prophet Muhammed as well as the European
> Parliament's claims that the Ottoman Empire carried out a genocide
> against Armenians.
> "I condemn the pope," said Ozdogan. "This isn't fitting of the
> pope. Islam has been bringing peace to the world since 1300. The
> European Union should talk to the bottom of my shoe about that
> genocide. The Armenians killed by grandfather. As a professor once
> said, some day the EU might ask us about the poultry massacre."
> Truly, it's surprising that the European Parliament hasn't asked
> about the poultry massacre so far, following the claims of
> genocide against Pontus Greeks and Assyrians.
> As everybody knows, hundreds of birds were killed last year in
> Turkey because of bird flu.
> http://www.thenewanatolian.com/opinion-15670.htmlI don't really see this at all. The controlling factor for the 4th
turning isn't the end of the awakening, but the disappearance of the
Artists, some 55-60 years after the end of the crisis war, which, in
this case, ended in 1949.
On top of that, the number of regional mass riots keeps increasing
exponentially, and the dependence on the bubble economy is out of
control. I'll agree that they're at the tail end of an unraveling
period, but I'd have to say that they're at least entering a crisis
era.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Africa
Dear Nathaniel,
I'm going to go out on a limb here and take some guesses about
Africa.
Let's start with a map of Africa:
- The top strip of countries ("white Africa") seem to have had
their crisis wars after WW II, so they're mostly in Unraveling
eras.- The next strip of countries (the top of "black Africa") seem to
have participated in WW II, so they're mostly in crisis eras. Sudan
is, of course, is in a crisis era past the regeneracy, and Somalia is
very close.- Southern Africa, from the Congo on down, had their crisis wars in
the 60s or later, so they're in awakening eras. However, Rwanda had
its crisis war in 1994, so it's in 1T. This cycle was generated by
the Mfecane of the early 1800s.
These are broad generalities, and I'm nervous about them because each
country has to be studied individually, and in detail. But for the
purposes of the map you're making, these generalities should be OK.
It was a great map, but what happened to it? It was available for a
day, and then it disappeared!
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Well, I can't say for sure, since I've never been to Turkey (although I'd love to visit.) It's just that I work with several Turks, and comparing their general outlook to those I met in Germany in '91-92, it sure seems that they perceive a crisis to have passed. (They're not even all that pissed at the Greeks anymore.)
Fair enough. I was trying to be too literal in comparing their last saeculum to ours. Still, I get the sense that they're not as late in the Unraveling as we are.
"Exponentially"? How many years to double? That word, I do not think it means what you think it means.
Another reason for the 2012 milestone is that is the year for which the CCP has announced a referendum on Hong Kong direct elections. Yes, a Crisis could come before then, but certainly no later than 2012.
Yes we did!
