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Thread: Objections to Generational Dynamics - Page 74







Post#1826 at 12-28-2006 08:34 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Oh, and thanks Michael Easton for your analysis on Africa.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#1827 at 12-28-2006 08:49 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
Here's the updated map:



I darkened the 2T and 3T colors to make the borders easier to see after I JPEGed the image.
I love that you are doing this too; I feel like I'm not alone investigating this stuff now. And now we can steal from each other! BTW, I will post a new map on the GD site tonight.

So...the questions begin. Why is Ukraine 4T but Russia 3T? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you (the entire former Soviet Union has been a thorn in my side since I started this project two months ago; I keep changing my mind between 4T, 1T, and leaving it grey), but it seems an odd difference for two countries so intimately linked. What made you go in that direction? The Orange Revolution in Ukraine?

Also, I have had Ireland in 4T red just assuming it was with most of Western Europe, but I see you have it sticking out in blue. I know Ireland is pretty isolated from Britain in some ways, and I am woefully uneducated about Ireland, so how did you come to that conclusion? I'd love to know.

Africa is going to be the toughest continent, I know that. You and I have both made big inroads there since MichaelEaston's posting today, but that is one tough continent. Every country is so isolated, and we Americans are so uninformed about it.

But really, why do we each have so much grey in Latin America? Latin America is right here in the Western Hemisphere; we should really try to tackle it. It seems you agreed with my coloring Colombia as 3T, and I agreed with your 2T assessment of Argentina and Chile, but since Latin America has relatively few countries compared to Africa, Asia, or Europe, we really should try to knock it out quickly. On both of our maps, Central America is utterly grey. There is no color between Mexico and Colombia. I for one would like to do something about that. But since Latin American history is so full of coups and juntas, it can be confusing trying to assign turning colors to each country. Nevertheless, it seems a worthwhile task since it should be more familiar territory to us than that of faraway lands in Asia and Africa. I'm researching Central America as I type. Are you in?







Post#1828 at 12-28-2006 09:40 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
I love that you are doing this too; I feel like I'm not alone investigating this stuff now. And now we can steal from each other! BTW, I will post a new map on the GD site tonight.

So...the questions begin. Why is Ukraine 4T but Russia 3T? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you (the entire former Soviet Union has been a thorn in my side since I started this project two months ago; I keep changing my mind between 4T, 1T, and leaving it grey), but it seems an odd difference for two countries so intimately linked. What made you go in that direction? The Orange Revolution in Ukraine?

Also, I have had Ireland in 4T red just assuming it was with most of Western Europe, but I see you have it sticking out in blue. I know Ireland is pretty isolated from Britain in some ways, and I am woefully uneducated about Ireland, so how did you come to that conclusion? I'd love to know.

Africa is going to be the toughest continent, I know that. You and I have both made big inroads there since MichaelEaston's posting today, but that is one tough continent. Every country is so isolated, and we Americans are so uninformed about it.

But really, why do we each have so much grey in Latin America? Latin America is right here in the Western Hemisphere; we should really try to tackle it. It seems you agreed with my coloring Colombia as 3T, and I agreed with your 2T assessment of Argentina and Chile, but since Latin America has relatively few countries compared to Africa, Asia, or Europe, we really should try to knock it out quickly. On both of our maps, Central America is utterly grey. There is no color between Mexico and Colombia. I for one would like to do something about that. But since Latin American history is so full of coups and juntas, it can be confusing trying to assign turning colors to each country. Nevertheless, it seems a worthwhile task since it should be more familiar territory to us than that of faraway lands in Asia and Africa. I'm researching Central America as I type. Are you in?
I'm really starting to not being really sure about Ukraine, I was thinking that the Orange Revolution was a Regeneracy, but it could also have been simply a "false Regeneracy" like 9/11 was for us since the enthusiasim over there has cooled drastically, so Ukraine might still be 3T.

I am having Ireland as late 1T since "The Troubles" seem to be the last 4T, and the 4T climax before that was Irish independence.

I will be working on Latin America as well over the next few days (If I don't get too distracted from playing Medieval 2: Total War over the rest of Winter Break ).
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#1829 at 12-28-2006 10:19 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I'm really starting to not being really sure about Ukraine, I was thinking that the Orange Revolution was a Regeneracy, but it could also have been simply a "false Regeneracy" like 9/11 was for us since the enthusiasim over there has cooled drastically, so Ukraine might still be 3T.

I am having Ireland as late 1T since "The Troubles" seem to be the last 4T, and the 4T climax before that was Irish independence.

I will be working on Latin America as well over the next few days (If I don't get too distracted from playing Medieval 2: Total War over the rest of Winter Break ).
On Ukraine: I am so moody about Eastern Europe it's not even funny. I'm conflicted because I feel like all of the countries formerly east of the Iron Curtain should be in the same turning, whatever that may be, due to the simultaneous collapse of Communism in East Germany, Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, etc. But I find it so hard to settle on a turning: Justin '77 makes a strong argument for putting Eastern Europe in blue, but John Xenakis and MichaelEaston argue well for red, and you give a good argument for yellow. It is so confusing. My color of the day is blue, but I'm not at all confident. And I have Georgia in red. So it's hardly consistent.

On Ireland: I am putting Ireland in blue because this makes sense.

On Latin America: We should both work on this. As I said, the long list of coups and juntas since World War II makes it a confusing task, but if we can whittle down what are true 4Ts and what are just 2T insurgent hiccups, we can knock out all of Central America and the rest of South America quickly.

By the way, my old Generational Dynamics link should now link to the new, updated map.







Post#1830 at 12-28-2006 10:30 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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I've been skimming overabout the histories of the various Central American states on Wikipedia and I'm really having trouble seeing what are the 2Ts and what are the 4Ts, to many damn coups and insugencies. I'm having trouble just figuring out what turing the Nicaraguan civil war of the 60's and 70's that lead to the overthrow of the Somoza regime by the Sandinista rebels was.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#1831 at 12-28-2006 10:39 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I've been skimming overabout the histories of the various Central American states on Wikipedia and I'm really having trouble seeing what are the 2Ts and what are the 4Ts, to many damn coups and insugencies. I'm having trouble just figuring out what turing the Nicaraguan civil war of the 60's and 70's that lead to the overthrow of the Somoza regime by the Sandinista rebels was.
OMG, that is bizarre. I was just reading the Nicaragua article on Wikipedia. And yes, this is the problem -- the 2Ts and 4Ts look exactly alike. They both have riots, civil wars, coups, juntas, insurgencies, and chaotic violence. It's like all of Latin America periodically switches between leftist populist revolutions and right-wing military takeovers.

I'm trying Peru now, and the problem is similar. I'm leaning ever so slightly to it being 4T like Mexico, but my certainty is about 30%. What made you put Bolivia and Venezuela in 4T? If you can be sure about that, maybe it will help us figure out the rest of Latin America...?







Post#1832 at 12-29-2006 12:00 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I'm really starting to not being really sure about Ukraine, I was thinking that the Orange Revolution was a Regeneracy, but it could also have been simply a "false Regeneracy" like 9/11 was for us since the enthusiasim over there has cooled drastically, so Ukraine might still be 3T.

I am having Ireland as late 1T since "The Troubles" seem to be the last 4T, and the 4T climax before that was Irish independence.

I will be working on Latin America as well over the next few days (If I don't get too distracted from playing Medieval 2: Total War over the rest of Winter Break ).
Something that I have noticed is that most people see elections (and public opinion polls of leaders) as the best way to determine a regeneracy. I'd disagree with this. By those standards, we reached a regeneracy after 9/11, a month into the Iraq war, and throughout 2005 and 2006. Hell, it'd be like that during Watergate. I don't think overwhelming support for a party determines a regeneracy. If the support goes towards the opposition, then there is no confidence in the ruling party. If it is toward the ruling party, then it could be nationalism. This can happen in any turning.

For the regeneracy, I'd look at it as a turning point in mood with a real desire to finish the crisis. It is the point of no return to the good old days. Following the optimism and then the crushing of confidence, the regeneracy focuses the population towards the goal.

The good news is that the beginning of the war may actually be the regeneracy, which may give the US a head start.

Oh, and try Company of Heroes. It is... spectacular.







Post#1833 at 12-29-2006 12:09 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I've been skimming overabout the histories of the various Central American states on Wikipedia and I'm really having trouble seeing what are the 2Ts and what are the 4Ts, to many damn coups and insugencies. I'm having trouble just figuring out what turing the Nicaraguan civil war of the 60's and 70's that lead to the overthrow of the Somoza regime by the Sandinista rebels was.
Ah, I'm well versed in coups and insurgencies.

In Africa, coups and government changes happen all the time. If all that happens is the coup, then you can dismiss it as a non-crisis event.

However, if the coup is backed by a major rebellion... if the coup is then followed by a rebellion... if the rebellion turns into a civil war (especially ethnic) that lasts for years, then it is 4T. If the coups are frequent, violent, and have small but many brutal power struggles, then it may be 4T. Was the insurgency motivated for political reasons? How big was it? Did it involve a certain ethnic group? What did the insurgency lead to? A violent civil war?

These are the questions I ask myself.
Last edited by Matt1989; 12-29-2006 at 12:11 AM.







Post#1834 at 12-29-2006 01:06 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990
http://generationaldynamics.com/gdgraphics/GD%20World%20Map.GIF
1990, it seems that some of my explanations were insufficient.

Libya and Tunisia must be 4T or beyond, since the one thing I do know is that between 1946-2006, there was no crisis.

Morocco should be 4T.

Mali. The only thing that could be considered 4T in the 20th century would be the Tuareg Rebellion, but I really wouldnít even be considering it if it werenít for the lack of a 20th century crisis war. Iím 85-90% sure Mali is 4T.

Niger. I canít help but thinking the Tuareg Rebellion, if a crisis war, is just one for the Tuaregs and not Niger and Mali as a whole. This would be like Turkey, but Iím more sure of it.

Senegal. I canít find a timeline. I suppose they are on the same timeline as Mali due to their influence and proximity.

Likewise, I canít find a timeline for Guinea. My guess would be the same as Senegal and Mali, but once again, I canít be sure.

I have no notes on Cameroon or the Central African Republic. Oops. Iíll be sure to tackle them later.

The countries in those regions that I didnít cover are probably too small to be able to get the information necessary. If I do get the information necessary, it will probably turn out to be something similar to a situation like Luxembourg.







Post#1835 at 12-29-2006 01:13 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Ah, I'm well versed in coups and insurgencies.

In Africa, coups and government changes happen all the time. If all that happens is the coup, then you can dismiss it as a non-crisis event.

However, if the coup is backed by a major rebellion... if the coup is then followed by a rebellion... if the rebellion turns into a civil war (especially ethnic) that lasts for years, then it is 4T. If the coups are frequent, violent, and have small but many brutal power struggles, then it may be 4T. Was the insurgency motivated for political reasons? How big was it? Did it involve a certain ethnic group? What did the insurgency lead to? A violent civil war?

These are the questions I ask myself.
Maybe you could help Odin and I as we try to chisel through Latin America? We have all of Central America unconsidered, as well as Ecuador, Peru, "the Guays" (Uruguay and Paraguay) and the "Guianas" (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana), plus the Caribbean. Care to assist?







Post#1836 at 12-29-2006 01:48 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Maybe you could help Odin and I as we try to chisel through Latin America? We have all of Central America unconsidered, as well as Ecuador, Peru, "the Guays" (Uruguay and Paraguay) and the "Guianas" (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana), plus the Caribbean. Care to assist?
Sure.

This is a line of text.







Post#1837 at 12-29-2006 03:52 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I agree that the collapse was 4T, and a new "order" was put in place.

But the absence of war makes the situation difficult to mark. I see the Chechen wars and the financial collapse and ensuing depression as 4T events; not 1T events. Russia might have turned to 1T if it weren't for these internal problems.
Buddy, the big Chechen War happened a long time ago (1991-1996), and the ruble default is also old history (1998). The current Chechen war maps a lot more closely to the US' incursion into Korea, as far as that goes.
There are ten-year-old kids with no living memory of the Crisis-endgame events' ever having happened, and five-year-olds who don't even remember the hard times that wrapped it up. We would call these kids Prophets -- you know, those born in a 1T.
Were I absolutely pressed, I would date the Russian 4T from '89-'00 or thereabouts. That pretty much grabs the entire duration of the real turmoil that enveloped the people here.

It is, I believe, a grave error to rely on cross-border conflicts to define a 4T -- these happen during all the Turnings, after all. Rather, it is the character of the times and the people making the times that should prove the true determining factor.

I do currently live in Russia, and have been coming here since the beginning of '04. My entire living memory of America is 3T (maybe also just a hair of the edge of the 4T; arguable). I've also spent a fair bit of time in the last two years Australia -- definitely 3T, recognizable easily as so by one who has spent his whole life in one, and who feels the same vibe there that he remembers from his early teen years. Really, it was Australia that convinced me that Turnings are evident primarily from the feel on the ground. And all the vibes that in Brisbane were screaming "3T" are absent in Pushkin and Moscow and Vladivostok. Nor is there any sense of what seemed to be looming in the US back when I left it for the long-term some months ago (strike 4T). And from the two remaining turnings, the relatively prevalent racism, the bland rulership, the economy strong and strengthening on fundamentals, and the trends in the way children are regarded -- something of which I am very strongly aware -- all very much suggest a 1T.

Don't feel bad about getting it wrong, though. I remember how Russia looked from your side of the globe, before I found anything out first-hand. The Establishment doesn't help much to really learn about anything. Either they want people to be for something, they want people to be against it, or they don't care about it. In the first two cases, they only show the fraction that they can spin to support their goals, and in the third case, they just say nothing at all. Everybody does it.







Post#1838 at 12-29-2006 03:57 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Justin '77 makes a strong argument for putting Eastern Europe in blue...
Whoa there! I didn't say anything about Eastern Europe. I've only ever been to Warsaw the one time, and that was just in the airport. I'd be among the first to admit that I don't know a damn thing about Eastern Europe, as far as turning go.
Russia (which stretches from west of Ukraine to east of China), on the other hand, I have offered arguments on.
Maybe part of John's problem is that he bunches together countries without regard to the actual variety of conditions in each.







Post#1839 at 12-29-2006 04:03 AM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
OMG, that is bizarre. I was just reading the Nicaragua article on Wikipedia. And yes, this is the problem -- the 2Ts and 4Ts look exactly alike. They both have riots, civil wars, coups, juntas, insurgencies, and chaotic violence. It's like all of Latin America periodically switches between leftist populist revolutions and right-wing military takeovers.

I'm trying Peru now, and the problem is similar. I'm leaning ever so slightly to it being 4T like Mexico, but my certainty is about 30%. What made you put Bolivia and Venezuela in 4T? If you can be sure about that, maybe it will help us figure out the rest of Latin America...?
I was thinking Venezuela and Bolivia are 4T because the left-wing governments in those two seem to be a lot more ambitious, gutsy, and "populist" then the left-wing governments in Brazil and Chile. The tones of Chavez and Morales and thier supporters seem very 4T.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#1840 at 12-29-2006 04:12 AM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Buddy, the big Chechen War happened a long time ago (1991-1996), and the ruble default is also old history (1998). The current Chechen war maps a lot more closely to the US' incursion into Korea, as far as that goes.
There are ten-year-old kids with no living memory of the Crisis-endgame events' ever having happened, and five-year-olds who don't even remember the hard times that wrapped it up. We would call these kids Prophets -- you know, those born in a 1T.
Were I absolutely pressed, I would date the Russian 4T from '89-'00 or thereabouts. That pretty much grabs the entire duration of the real turmoil that enveloped the people here.
Thanks for the perspective. I suppose we could quibble a bit on the dates: I would mark the beginning of the 4T as 1987, when "perestroika" entered our vocabulary and the handwriting was already on the wall. (If "reconstruction" doesn't indicate a 4T, what does??) I was living in Germany at the time, and the changes were self-evident even from the other side of the Oder-Neisse.

And you would seem to mark the end of the 4T as 1996, when those "ten-year-old kids with no living memory" were born.

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Really, it was Australia that convinced me that Turnings are evident primarily from the feel on the ground. And all the vibes that in Brisbane were screaming "3T" are absent in Pushkin and Moscow and Vladivostok.
So is Australia ahead or behind us in the cycle? I'm not clear on the dates of your travels, but you seem to be saying that they're still solidly 3T. I can buy that; the "culture wars" still seem to be dominating politics there.
Yes we did!







Post#1841 at 12-29-2006 04:31 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Finch View Post
And you would seem to mark the end of the 4T as 1996, when those "ten-year-old kids with no living memory" were born.
I don't know about you, but my 'living memory' starts at about age 2.5-3. So that'd put the end at '99-'00.
So is Australia ahead or behind us in the cycle?
Behind, definitely. I'd put them in 2006 as somewhere in the middle of their 3T. Tristan could hit that one more directly than I could, of course.







Post#1842 at 12-29-2006 12:26 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I was thinking Venezuela and Bolivia are 4T because the left-wing governments in those two seem to be a lot more ambitious, gutsy, and "populist" then the left-wing governments in Brazil and Chile. The tones of Chavez and Morales and thier supporters seem very 4T.
Yeah, that makes sense. In Venezuela's case, though, it appears there were two military coups during the post-WWII High -- in 1947 and in 1958. That would indicate that it is on the Cuba/Colombia 3T timeline, wouldn't it? Then again, Latin America is so full of coups I can't be sure.

As for Bolivia, that country is so chock full of revolutions I really don't know.

Are you making any headway into other Latin American countries? I'm leaning ever so slightly toward putting Costa Rica in red. It may not be there yet, but it will be there in this turning (which is why I have Europe, China, India, Australia, etc. in red prematurely). According to Wikipedia Costa Rica has been extraordinarily stable and peaceful since the '40s...seems like a red flag. But I am not sure yet.

Other countries seem very daunting so far. Any progress?

BTW, on a totally different note, I am considering whether to revamp my assessment of the Middle East and go your route (i.e. Iran is the only 2T country, the rest are heading 4T). I can see the '70s and '80s conflicts in Syria and Lebanon as 2T (the Lebanon Civil War was mostly about religion, after all). But the one place I'm not sure about is Iraq. It would make sense to have Iran isolated as 2T in the Middle East sea of 4T red, except how could the Iran-Iraq war (which embroiled both countries equally) be 2T for Iraq? It seems that war was all about domination of the Gulf and pure land grabbing, not about religion or social values like a 2T conflict would be. I can get behind switching Lebanon and Syria, but how do you explain the Iran-Iraq war as a 2T event?







Post#1843 at 12-29-2006 12:38 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Whoa there! I didn't say anything about Eastern Europe. I've only ever been to Warsaw the one time, and that was just in the airport. I'd be among the first to admit that I don't know a damn thing about Eastern Europe, as far as turning go.
Russia (which stretches from west of Ukraine to east of China), on the other hand, I have offered arguments on.
Maybe part of John's problem is that he bunches together countries without regard to the actual variety of conditions in each.
Alright then. I just put most of Eastern Europe back in grey. Sigh.

I now have the Balkans, Turkey, Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan in blue. I know MichaelEaston will disagree, but I am choosing that route for now. Intuitively I would expect Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the rest of the former Soviet countries in Europe to be blue as well, but since I haven't heard the same sort of convincing case from a resident as I have from you on Russia, I will leave them grey.

By the way, Justin, is it sane that I have Georgia in 4T? It's sticking out like a sore thumb sandwiched between 1T countries Russia and Armenia/Azerbaijan.







Post#1844 at 12-29-2006 01:49 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
By the way, Justin, is it sane that I have Georgia in 4T? It's sticking out like a sore thumb sandwiched between 1T countries Russia and Armenia/Azerbaijan.
Georgia's a long way away from here. And as they tell it, people in that part of the world have been clanning up and killing the clan from the next valley over for more than a thousand years. I might even be hard-pressed to make a call on that one if I was there...







Post#1845 at 12-29-2006 02:35 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Yeah, that makes sense. In Venezuela's case, though, it appears there were two military coups during the post-WWII High -- in 1947 and in 1958. That would indicate that it is on the Cuba/Colombia 3T timeline, wouldn't it? Then again, Latin America is so full of coups I can't be sure.

As for Bolivia, that country is so chock full of revolutions I really don't know.

Are you making any headway into other Latin American countries? I'm leaning ever so slightly toward putting Costa Rica in red. It may not be there yet, but it will be there in this turning (which is why I have Europe, China, India, Australia, etc. in red prematurely). According to Wikipedia Costa Rica has been extraordinarily stable and peaceful since the '40s...seems like a red flag. But I am not sure yet.

Other countries seem very daunting so far. Any progress?

BTW, on a totally different note, I am considering whether to revamp my assessment of the Middle East and go your route (i.e. Iran is the only 2T country, the rest are heading 4T). I can see the '70s and '80s conflicts in Syria and Lebanon as 2T (the Lebanon Civil War was mostly about religion, after all). But the one place I'm not sure about is Iraq. It would make sense to have Iran isolated as 2T in the Middle East sea of 4T red, except how could the Iran-Iraq war (which embroiled both countries equally) be 2T for Iraq? It seems that war was all about domination of the Gulf and pure land grabbing, not about religion or social values like a 2T conflict would be. I can get behind switching Lebanon and Syria, but how do you explain the Iran-Iraq war as a 2T event?
I agree with Costa Rica, it seemd to have went 1T with the demillitarization in the late 40's. I'll be taking a break fron Central America and work on the 'guays today.

The Wiki article on the Iran-Iraq War screams 2T country vs. 4T country:

The surprise offensive advanced quickly against the still disorganized Iranian forces, advancing on a wide front into Iranian territory along the Mehran-Khorramabad axis in Central Iran and towards Ahvaz in the oil-rich southern province of Khuzestan.

Iraq encountered unexpected resistance, however. Rather than turning against the Ayatollah's government as exiles had promised, the people of Iran rallied around their country and mounted far stiffer resistance; an estimated 100,000 volunteers arrived at the front by November. An Iraqi Air Force attack on Iranian airfields was ineffective, due in part to the fact that the Iranian airfields were long enough for the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force to deploy its planes, and that aircraft hangars had been upgraded to withstand bombs. The Iraqis soon found the Iranian military was not nearly as depleted as they had thought. By June of 1982, a successful Iranian counter-offensive had recovered the areas previously lost to Iraq. An especially significant battle of this counter-offensive in the Khuzestan province was the liberation of Khorramshahr city from the Iraqis on May 24, 1982.


Most of the fighting for the rest of the war occurred on Iraqi territory, although some have interpreted the Iraqi withdrawal as a tactical ploy by the Iraqi military. By fighting just inside Iraq, Saddām Hussein could rally popular Iraqi patriotism. The Iraqi army could also fight on its own territory and in well-established defensive positions. The Iranians continued to employ unsophisticated human wave attacks, while Iraqi soldiers remained, for the most part, in a defensive posture.


Iraq offered a cessation of hostilities in 1982, but Iran's insistence from July 1982 onward to destroy the Iraqi government prolonged the conflict for another six years of static warfare.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#1846 at 12-29-2006 03:12 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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12-29-2006, 03:12 PM #1846
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I agree with Costa Rica, it seemd to have went 1T with the demillitarization in the late 40's. I'll be taking a break fron Central America and work on the 'guays today.

The Wiki article on the Iran-Iraq War screams 2T country vs. 4T country:
Wow, that is interesting. Okay, I've decided to go with your line of thinking on the Middle East. I'm putting Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria into red, leaving only Iran as a 2T country. That description of Iran's gusto vs. Iraq's exhaustion during the war sounds remarkably like Vietnam -- with a 2T US tired of fighting and wanting to pull out earlier than an energetic and genocidal 4T Vietnam.

As for Latin America, I will tentatively put Costa Rica in red. Let me know what you find with other countries. We should work in collaboration, not isolated.







Post#1847 at 12-29-2006 07:46 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Buddy, the big Chechen War happened a long time ago (1991-1996), and the ruble default is also old history (1998). The current Chechen war maps a lot more closely to the US' incursion into Korea, as far as that goes.
There are ten-year-old kids with no living memory of the Crisis-endgame events' ever having happened, and five-year-olds who don't even remember the hard times that wrapped it up. We would call these kids Prophets -- you know, those born in a 1T.
Were I absolutely pressed, I would date the Russian 4T from '89-'00 or thereabouts. That pretty much grabs the entire duration of the real turmoil that enveloped the people here.
Well, alright. That would be a more acceptable 4T. I suppose we'll have to just wait and see.







Post#1848 at 12-29-2006 07:49 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I was thinking Venezuela and Bolivia are 4T because the left-wing governments in those two seem to be a lot more ambitious, gutsy, and "populist" then the left-wing governments in Brazil and Chile. The tones of Chavez and Morales and thier supporters seem very 4T.
Hold on there. Things like this can be very deceptive. Tone and action are two entirely different things.







Post#1849 at 12-30-2006 02:54 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Central America

Guatemala- Genocidal Civil War lasted from 1960 to 1996. I would think that the 4T period came to a close sometime in the 80s, with the official end of the war being in 1996. 2T (or 1T).

Belize- Probably the same as Guatemala. Acheived independence in 1981. There was much unrest in Belize in 2005. 2T.

El Salvadore- El Salvadore had a genocidal civil war from 1980 to 1992. 1T, but close to 2T.

Honduras- I was expecting a 1980s war but couldn't find anything from the Wikipedia article. The US poured money into Honduras and there were a couple coups and some rebellions here and there. Needs more research, but probably 1T.

Nicaragua- Sandinista period (1979-1990) was, with little doubt, a crisis period. 1T, but close to 2T.

You're probably right about Costa Rica, and I'd say the same for Panama, for which I cannot find a crisis end since 1903.







Post#1850 at 12-30-2006 03:07 AM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Hold on there. Things like this can be very deceptive. Tone and action are two entirely different things.
Very true, but even with their policies seems to be a distinct difference between Chavez and Morales on one hand and Blanchet and Lula on the other. The latter seem to be typical social democrat-type left-wingers while the former are radical left-wing nationalistic populists.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
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