Right. Gorbachev's grand reforms (very 4Tish) came circa 1987, quite conveniently 70 years after the Revolution, and (catch this) exactly 65 years (your number) after the end of the Russian Civil War and the founding of the Soviet Union. Talk about right on time.Originally Posted by MichaelEaston
P.S. I guess this means we can expect a core 4T starting around 2010?
Last edited by 1990; 01-17-2007 at 11:34 PM.
Well, I just threw out the number 65. I could have put 70 or 60. The way I see it is..
About 50 years (and a possibly a little less, but I'll cringe) after the end of the previous crisis, the opportunity arises for the crisis (4T) to begin. It requires a 9/11-type event, a stock market crash, an invasion, things getting out of control, etc. etc. However, if the event does not occur, I'd assume the country is going to be 4T by the 65-year mark. Since the fall of the Soviet Union was in 1991, 69 years after the end of the Russian Civil War, I can't see how it wouldn't be a 4T event.
Last edited by Matt1989; 01-18-2007 at 10:57 AM.
Dear Justin,
Everybody seems to want to pick one or two words out of context from
TFT and use them to declare the "key feature" of some era or
archetype.
Now, you claim that "cultural-paradigm-shifting upheavals" are the
"key feature" of crisis eras. Well that's nice, but it's news to me.
I would say that America in the 1960s-70s went through a
"cultural-paradigm-shifting upheaval," and so by your declaration,
that was a crisis era.
There's no way, in my opinion, that you're going to find any simple
way to define any particular era. And the way I know that is because
I did define what it means to be a "crisis war," and it turns out to
be incredibly complicated.
Haven't I already answered this? I've given several examples of
crisis eras with no crisis war: Switzerland and Iceland in WW II, and
England during the American Civil War. In each case, the country was
viscerally connected to the war, but actual participation in the war
was aborted for some reason. Switzerland, for example, was fully
prepared and ready for war if Germany had succeeded in France.
However, this is a rare occurrence, and I have no particular reason
to believe that this case could apply to Russia today. There's no
war that occurred in the 1990s that the Russians were viscerally
connected to, without participating.
No, Justin, you've got this completely backwards. Immigration issues
and xenophobia are typical of fourth turnings, not first turnings.
Xenophobia and immigration issues are growing all around the world
today -- in America toward the Mexicans, throughout Europe toward the
Muslims, throughout the Muslim world toward America and the West, in
China toward Japan, in Korea, toward Japan, in Japan toward Korea and
China, and in Russia toward just about everyone else in the
neighborhood (including Estonia, as I see from the Russia thread).
The BBC News article that I posted was a clear, unambiguous example
of fourth turning pre-crisis war behavior. You've got a growing
problem with immigrants, so how is it being handled? By passing
ridiculous quota laws that control the number of immigrants that are
allowed to work in a particular retail store. This is a joke. This
is the kind of desperate "papering over" kind of attempt that does
nothing to solve the real problem, but allows everyone to continue in
their state of denial that nothing is wrong. In the end, all this
kind of quota law will do is absolutely infuriate the Georgians and
other targeted ethnic groups, and bring a crisis war closer.
It does you no good, Justin, to pretend that Yeltsin standing on top
of a tank was a crisis war. As I keep saying about these situations,
you cannot stop this crisis war; you can only prepare for it. And
you should be spending your time preparing yourself and your family
for what's coming, not pretending that it isn't coming.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
John,
I won't say that you convinced me about the necessity of a war to make a crisis, because you haven't in all the time I've been reading your posts on this board. You see what you see, through the lens you have constructed (as do we all). War, however, does not define the Turnings, or the generations. What defines them are, as I put it before, are cultural shifts. Never having been through a Crisis yourself, I can understand why you might interpret an Awakening as a major paradigm-shifting event -- it does run a close second in some ways. I trust that, as the American 4T progresses, you will have the opportunity to reassess this perspective.This one is, as I've said, pretty uncontroversial. To paraphrase the authors:
1T High xenophobia
2T Falling Xenophobia
3T Low Xenophobia
4T Rising Xenophobia
That is, in a 4T, there is not a high level of anti-immigration sentiment, but a rising one -- which is, necessarily, less than the 'high' it will attain. Russia has been sitting at about the same level since the beginning of Putin's presidency (that is, since the early 2000s). The decades preceding that saw the increase of xenophobia from the relative unity of the late Soviet days to where it is now. That is, those decades were a time of Rising Xenophobia = 4T.
I see that no arguments are capable of swaying your faith in the criticality of war to the generations, or to the fact that the overthrow (quasi-peaceful, granted) by a people of their entire government is a 4T event. Experience is what you need, and it is what you will be getting.
See what I said about the lens? The increase talked about on that other thread is on the Estonian side (justified in some ways); Russia is sitting back and being reactive. This is 1T leadership behavior.China, and in Russia toward just about everyone else in the neighborhood (including Estonia, as I see from the Russia thread).
Tee hee. You know the difference between an early 4T 'ridiculous law' and an early 1T law? The fact that the Russian law worked. There are a whole hell of a lot fewer Georgians in Russia these days. The two good Georgian restaurants I knew in Moscow are closed, and you don't see the Kavkaz faces nearly so prevalently anymore even up here. It's a shame (just like Jim Crow, which was also passed during a 1T), but when a 1T government decides upon a solution to a perceived problem, it implements it. What are ridiculous are laws passed without enforcement or the means or will to enforcement. That's not particularly lacking here.The BBC News article that I posted was a clear, unambiguous example of fourth turning pre-crisis war behavior. You've got a growing problem with immigrants, so how is it being handled? By passing ridiculous quota laws that control the number of immigrants that are allowed to work in a particular retail store.
That's not what I was saying (do you even read my posts?). The contention was made that Putin was the big-action-taking gravitas-type Prophet-gen leader. All I pointed out was that Putin's predecessor was the one who had the Prophet's taste for the flamboyant and bold. I'm not the one who insists that every Crisis comes with a war, so I don't need to claim that any particular event was a war-analogue.It does you no good, Justin, to pretend that Yeltsin standing on top of a tank was a crisis war.
Well, we started it off by getting our asses out of the place that's going into its crisis bristling with weapons and rising martial spirit. And if that nation from the throes of its crisis decides to express itself via weapons and martial spirit where I happen to be, then it really made no difference under what generational constellation I and my fellow recipients were living. We will have your war.As I keep saying about these situations, you cannot stop this crisis war; you can only prepare for it.
Could you provide page number references for this?
John
Dear Justin,
I'm still waiting for page numbers for this.
I assume that the country you're talking about must be China. China
has been militarizing at a huge rate of growth, obviously preparing
for a major war with somebody.
And now we have China developing and testing a variety of
anti-satellite technologies. They're mainly targeting American
satellites, but the low orbit, low technology Russian satellites are
sitting ducks. Russia has overtaken China economically, and soon
will do so militarily, especially now that it can "blind" Russia's
military within a few hours.
You're very quick to blame America for everything, but your last
sentence makes my point. If one of your many neighbors, most of whom
are populated by ethnic groups that hate the Russians, even more so
now with the new Gestapo-like anti-immigration laws, "decides to
express itself via [anti-Russian uprising] and martial spirit where
[you] happen to be, then it really makes no difference... [You] will
have your war."
It's really disgusting, though not surprising, that someone who would
condemn Bush for just sucking air would be so gleeful about how
Georgians are being brutalized and screwed. The people who ran those
two Georgian restaurants just lost their life savings, as did the
people with those Kavkaz faces.
And "enforcement" in Russia means breaking the bones of people who
refuse to pay bribes. The new laws provide additional weapons for
the Russian police to use to extort money from immigrants.
Yes, "it's a shame" when people are screwed over by ethnic group, but
that's a small price to pay for the new, enlightened Russian world.
And your comparison of Putin's Gestapo laws to America's post-Civil
War Jim Crow laws is a fantasy of yours. The new Russian laws make
discrimination the law of the land. In America, the 14th and 15th
Constitutional amendments made equal rights the law of the land. The
Jim Crow laws were local laws passed in violation of the law of the
land. But the difference is that equal rights were the law of the
land in America, but in Russia increasing discrimination is the law of
the land. So your comparison is completely worthless.
And I find it particularly amusing that you declare the Russian law
as working, even though it's only a week old and causing huge
dislocations. Are you an employee of Putin's public relations
brigade?
I went to the trouble of collecting a number of articles on the new
Russian immigration laws, and I'll post extracts in the next message.
But here's what I found, in summary:
- The new laws are really screwing non-Russians.
- They're screwing Russians too, because the cheap products and
services provided by immigrants are no longer available. [This hints
at what's probably really going on: Russian Corporate merchants who
want to get rid of competition so they can raise prices. Remember how
much you hate Corporations, Justin?]- Russians are unwilling to work at the same jobs for the same pay
as the immigrants.- The corrupt Russian police force will now have a new weapon to
use against immigrants.- Here's the most ridiculous thing of all: Russia's population is
declining, and the immigrants are being forced out. How will this be
fixed? By encouraging Russian expatriates to return to the mother
country!! This I have to see. (Well, maybe they'll follow your
example.)- Meanwhile, Putin has already been forced to back-pedal on many of
the sanctions against Georgia, since he's now discovered that his
plan to cause the downfall of the Saakashvili government is a failure.
How long do you think it will be before Putin back-pedals on ALL of
these anti-immigration laws?
Fortunately I don't have to simply accept everything you say about
what's going on in Russia, since there are hundreds of news sources
on the Internet that provide a more complete picture.
If you really believe that turning the Gestapo onto beating,
extorting and exporting millions of immigrants is going to keep you
out of a crisis war, then, with all due respect, you're dreaming.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Extracts from articles on Russia's anti-immigration laws
Extracts from recent articles on
Russia's anti-immigration laws
http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...-inDepthNews-3
Russian markets suffer as new rules hit immigrants
Not much was happening this week in the market at Khabarovsk, in
Russia's Far East, a few days after new immigration rules came into
effect.
Its Chinese stall-holders had fled back across the border.
"There is nobody here now," said one of the last Chinese traders, who
called herself Marina. "If they want us to work we will stay. If they
don't want us to work we will leave." ...
Others had abandoned their stock, now being sold by Russians at a
much higher price than the Chinese had charged.
"I can't buy this for 1,000 roubles ($40)," said Lida, a former
engineer, gesturing at a stall behind her run by a Russian.
"I have a pension of 3,000 roubles a month and pay 2,000 for housing.
How can I live?" She pulled her shawl over her shoulders and trudged
on.
The Chinese, like other immigrants, filled a gap because they were
willing to work in markets and could supply products from China more
cheaply than Russian equivalents.
Many Russians rely on markets for cheap supplies because shop prices,
especially in big cities, have reached Western levels while an
average Russian earns only $5,000 a year. ...
Officials insist Russians will be happy to replace migrants in
markets.
"There are Russians to be hired," the deputy head of the Federal
Migration Service, Vyacheslav Postavnin, told Rossiiskaya Gazeta
daily. "Market owners will make sure their business continues."
Market businessmen say this will be difficult.
A cafe manager, a Russian citizen of Armenian origin, said he had
hired Russians but they left after two weeks. He said they wanted to
work short hours for high pay and few had applied for the job. ...
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/e..._come_in_March
Russian government's first repatriates to come in March
Moscow - Under a new plan to reinforce the country's falling
population, Russia expects a first wave of repatriated countrymen to
begin at the end of March, a migration official in Moscow said
Friday. ...
President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the country's Second Worldwide
Congress of Countrymen, in October unveiled plans to repatriate
300,000 Russians living abroad. ...
Romodanovsky said in October that the country would spend nearly 200
million dollars to lure 50,000 native Russians to the country in
2007. The following years would respectively see 100,000 and 150,000
return.
As Putin has noted, to sustain its economy Russia will have to see
immigration numbers jump, no matter the ethnicity of the newcomers.
But with a surge in racially-motivated violence in recent years,
Putin's hopes conflict with present realities. Last year saw over 20
hate-killings, and courts are notorious for seldom convicting their
perpetrators of murder.
http://www.inform.kz/showarticle.php?lang=eng&id=147760
... Police raid the country's markets on a daily basis, enforcing
quotas on the number of foreign workers - mainly from central Asia and
the Caucasus.
The new law was proposed after race riots in northern Russia last
summer.
President Vladimir Putin spoke of the need to defend the interests of
the native population.
Markets - often a source of employment for Russia's army of immigrant
workers - were singled out. ...
Human rights groups fear that police officers may try to abuse their
authority as they carry out their duties.
Immigrant workers share those fears. They also question who would
actually do their often difficult, dangerous and dirty jobs if they
did not, Kazinform quotes James Rodgers,
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=39017
"We want to get rid of illegal immigration," said Denis Soldatikov, a
spokesman for the Federal Migration Service. Up to 12 million
migrants from ex-Soviet states, China and Vietnam are estimated to be
in Russia, working on building sites, on farms, as street sweepers
and in outdoor markets.
Because the bureaucracy makes it almost impossible to obtain all the
right documents, more than 90 per cent of them are working illegally.
However, Russia’s population is shrinking because of the low birth
rate and life expectancy. It is expected to contract by another
700,000 to 141.7 million this year, so Russia needs at least 1
million more immigrants every year to keep its economy running.
But massive immigration has become a major factor fuelling racism
among many Russians, who fear the influx of foreigners will dilute
the country’s ethnic make-up. Members of Mestnye (Locals), one of
several anti-immigrant groups that has sprung up in Russia, picketed
Azerbaijan’s embassy in Moscow on Monday accusing the ex-Soviet state
of encouraging illegal immigration to Russia. ...
Television pictures on Monday showed rows of locked shops at a market
in the Far Eastern city of Vladivostok heavily dependant on traders
from neighbouring China. "The move was harmful because it will
undermine trade," Vitkovskaya said. "I only hope no one is going to
abide by it." But deputy Federal Migration Service head Vyacheslav
Postavnin disagreed, saying the markets will adjust. "There are
Russians to be hired,” he told Rossiiskaya Gazetadaily. "Market
owners will make sure that their business continues.”
http://www.thanhniennews.com/busines...2&newsid=24453
Vietnamese exporters face big losses under new Russian regulation
... Huynh Cong Minh, general director of the southern Ho Chi Minh
City-based Saigon Trading Group, Satra, said the new law was certain
to produce a negative impact on exports to Russia.
Satra said it had earned millions of US dollars from the market in
past years.
He added that the group would re-reconsider its plan to open two
supermarkets in Russia.
According to numerous local businesses, the Russian market is
unstable and carries a high risk for payment, and the new regulation
was sure to dampen the outlook.
The news law, which is aimed at encouraging Russians to take up jobs
in the sector and help rid markets of criminal groups, would affect
some 80,000 Vietnamese immigrants who work in markets and roadside
shops.
http://www.kommersant.com/p735088/r_538/Georgia/
Russia Backpaddles
... The Kremlin decided to lift the its sanctions on Georgia because
they not only failed to be effective, they are making Georgia less
dependent on Russia.
Putin announced the lifting of one of the most significant sanctions
against Georgia yesterday. He invited Ambassador to Tbilisi
Vyacheslav Kovalenko to the Kremlin and announced that he intends to
take steps to normalize relations with Georgia. The first step will
be the return of the ambassador, who left Georgia in October at the
height of the Russian-Georgian conflict. ...
Kommersant has learned that the decision to lift the sanctions was
made last week. ... The consequences of the sanctions imposed by
Moscow on the Mikhail Saakashvili regime last October were analyzed.
It is hard to say what data the participants had at their disposal,
but generally accessible statistics show that the situation in Georgia
is not as deplorable as they had expected in Moscow.
According to an International Monetary Fund report published in
December, for instance, the Russian embargo had no substantial effect
on the Georgian economy. ...
Thus, the Kremlin's expectation that the sanctions would nearly equal
the downfall of the Saakashvili government was not met. On the
contrary, Russia's influence was diminished by the blockade. ...
But the anti-Georgian campaign negatively reflected on Russia's image
both in Georgia and the West. Pro-Russian politicians in Georgia were
undermined and public support for the countries entrance into NATO
rose significantly. Kremlin strategists obviously came to the
conclusion that only lifting the sanctions could remedy the
situation. ...
The news from Moscow was uplifting for Georgian politicians. “The
return of the Russian ambassador is the victory of Georgia,” ...
Continued in next message
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Extracts from articles on Russia's anti-immigration laws
Continued from previous message
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....0859&PageNum=0
90 cases on illegal employment of migrants referred to court
MOSCOW, January 19 (Itar-Tass) - Some 90 cases on the illegal
employment of foreign workers were referred to court after the coming
into force of a new migration legislation in Russia....
According to Romodanovsky, if a violation of the migration
legislation is found at some enterprise, it may be stopped for a
period starting from 30 days. Aside from it, he continued, the
businessmen who employ illegal immigrants face the prospect of “a
European fine.” A dishonest businessman may pay up to 800,000 roubles
for each illegal worker. ...
Commenting on the situation at city markets, Romodanovsky said that
the share of illegal workers had been perceptibly reduced there
during the four days of the work of the new law. “We do not expect
any problems, connected with the coming into force of the new law.
This is a progressive step towards the creation in Russia of civilized
and controllable migration legislation,” he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6262549.stm
Enforcing Russia's migrant quotas
... The officers pile out of a bus and get to work. They split up
into pairs and fan out among the shops and stalls.
They seem pretty clear what they are looking for: anyone whose
appearance suggests they might come from the Caucasus, Central Asia,
or further afield.
The process looks pretty simple. If you are not white, they would
like to see your documents.
The slightest irregularity gets the suspected offender marched off
for questioning. ...
The new legislation was proposed after race riots in northern Russia
late last summer.
President Vladimir Putin spoke of the need to defend the interests of
what he called the "native population".
Markets - often a source of employment for Russia's army of immigrant
workers - were singled out. ...
Roman came to Moscow from Tajikistan in the 1990s.
He shares a tiny room no more than a few metres square with two other
people. When we meet, he is also babysitting for a neighbour's
two-year-old daughter.
More than a quarter of his meagre wage goes on the corner he calls
home.
Roman knows that he may have to leave Russia. But he questions
whether the new laws are workable.
"If they deport us, we'll leave," he tells me.
"But the people here won't do the jobs we do. Who's going to do the
work? Who will clean the streets? All those sort of jobs fall on
immigrants' shoulders," he says, slapping his own shoulder for
emphasis. ...
He suspects, like Roman, that the new law will make life tougher. He
also suspects that much will depend on how the law is actually
applied.
That is because despite many attempts to eradicate it, police
corruption in this country is rife.
"This is playing straight into the hands of corrupt police officers,"
Mr Khamruyev says of the new laws.
"They've always taken bribes from migrants, and they won't stop now."
Russia is getting rich. The economy is growing, but short life
expectancy and a low birth rate mean the population is falling.
So Russia needs to expand its workforce. Immigrants are not
encouraged to apply.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2007/01/...migrants.shtml
New Russian Laws Limit Jobs for Immigrants
... Human rights groups fear that police officers may try to abuse
their authority as they carry out their duties.
Immigrant workers share those fears. They also question who would
actually do their often difficult, dangerous and dirty jobs if they
did not.
http://www.economist.com/world/europ...ory_id=8562029
Immigrants in Russia - Market forces
"THEY are throwing us all out," says Makhmoud from Tajikistan
mournfully, as he stands in front of a row of dead dangling piglets
at Dorogomilovsky market in Moscow. ...
Russia's markets offer useful insights into the erratic nature of the
country's development. Though bits of Russia are booming, inequality
is grotesquely wide, and even in glitzy Moscow many Russians rely on
cheap market stalls for their daily needs. Yet because many are
staffed by immigrants—mostly from the ex-Soviet states of the Caucasus
and Central Asia—they have also become a focus for Russia's
increasingly visible ethnic nationalism. ...
Still, if xenophobia is one influence on Russia's migration policy
(and racist murders are running at roughly one a week), there is
another contradictory pressure that the Kremlin cannot ignore. Beneath
its petrorouble prosperity, Russia is not only angry, but dying: the
population is shrinking by around 750,000 per year, a drop mostly
driven by the catastrophic rate of death—by violence, heart disease,
tuberculosis and, increasingly, AIDS—among working-age men.
If the economy is to diversify beyond its natural-resources core, that
is alarming. In response, President Putin has mostly talked about
attracting more ethnic Russians back from the other ex-Soviet states,
and of boosting the birth rate. But some in the government evidently
understand that these measures will not suffice—because this week,
sensible new rules that will make it easier for foreigners to work
legally in Russia everywhere but in markets were also introduced.
Up to 6m work permits are to be available this year for migrants from
the poor ex-Soviet republics. That may be far fewer than the 8m-12m
people that the federal migration service estimates are working in
Russia illegally, but it amounts to far more than have been handed out
before. Moreover, a simpler process should mean less official
extortion.
As Elena Tyuryukanova, a migration expert, says, the "right hand of
government is liberalising the law, and the left hand is doing the
opposite."
The left hand, however, may yet have to reconsider. This week, as
foreign workers—in Siberia and the Far East, mostly Chinese—packed up
their market pitches, the government was insisting that the markets
stay open, and that prices must not rise.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=42146
Russia: New Laws Create Widespread Uncertainty For Migrants
... Qurbonali, a Tajik migrant working in the Cherkizovo market in
Moscow, is one of millions of migrants working in Russia.
"Most people in our market are illegals," he told RFE/RL. "We don't
know what consequences of that will be." ...
Following the killings, angry mobs burned down the restaurant and
ransacked local market stalls and stores owned by Chechens and others
from the Caucasus.
Popular sentiment is growing against illegal immigrants. Race attacks
and hate crimes are on the rise. Many Russians complain about the
high number of foreigners in the country.
Rights campaigners say the law represents a worrying shift to the
right in Russia. They say the Kremlin has not done enough to clamp
down on racist organizations targeting migrants and that comments
from the Kremlin have partly encouraged a rise in popular nationalist
sentiments. ...
"The law may be good, but we are talking about how the law is
implemented in Russia," Mais Seferli, the chairman of Yurddash, a
political party in Azerbaijan, told RFE/RL. "And this implementation
is often very bad. Sometimes laws are used as a sword of Damocles
above the heads of Azeris in Russia. Russian police take bribes and
use the laws to frighten. The main problem for Azeris [working in
Russia] is the unfair implementation of these laws."
The issue is not likely to go away anytime soon. With popular
antimigrant sentiments growing and parliamentary elections in
December, the Kremlin is unlikely to soften its approach.
http://www.thanhniennews.com/oversea...2&newsid=24548
Question mark looms over Vietnamese traders’ future in Russia
... Some 100,000 Vietnamese immigrants are in the country, with the
vast majority working in markets and roadside shops.
Chien, the owner of a shop selling clothes in the Cherkizovsky, the
largest wholesale and retailing market in Moscow, has spent sleepless
nights in the past few months.
He said since his shop was located in a prime place many had asked
him to sell it last year, offering more than US$200,000. However,
following the new law, it had become worthless overnight.
Besides, taking advantage of his situation, many regular clients, who
owed him large sums of money, had refused to pay.
Chien wondered sadly how he would earn a living in future or how he
could return to Vietnam at the age of 50 without any other skills.
...
Ha, a veteran trader, said the ban on foreigners would not benefit
Russian consumers because prices would go up and local sellers did
not try to please their customers or work as hard as the Chinese or
Vietnamese.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Yeah. Getting it might not be quick, since most of my stuff is still in boxes (and because the boys and I are flying solo these next couple weeks, so my 'time for digging' is a bit more limited). But I haven't forgotten.
Of course you doI assume that the country you're talking about must be China.. People who actually know China, on the other hand...
Where did you read glee? Just because the laws worked doesn't mean I like them (and have I mentioned about the kindsmarauli?). And I even followed that point up by analogizing to Jim Crow.It's really disgusting, though not surprising, that someone who would condemn Bush for just sucking air would be so gleeful about how Georgians are being brutalized and screwed.
Waittaminute. You're not going to say I'm gleeful about that, too, are you?!?
and this is different from the rest of the world, how? That's all most laws are for, anywhere, is to give the state another excuse to f-ck over some group a bit harder. No matter what turning they're passed in.And "enforcement" in Russia means breaking the bones of people who refuse to pay bribes. The new laws provide additional weapons for the Russian police to use to extort money from immigrants.
You're making a pointless distinction. Russian law isn't as federalist as US law used to be, so they don't have the mechanism to pretend to be righteous while all the while actually just being the same old assholes. The way society behaves towards the local blacks (as Causasians are called by the more racist Russians) is exactly the same.And your comparison of Putin's Gestapo laws to America's post-Civil War Jim Crow laws is a fantasy of yours. The new Russian laws make discrimination the law of the land. In America, the 14th and 15th Constitutional amendments made equal rights the law of the land.
Aha! It was meant to cause huge dislocations, and it is, in fact, causing huge dislocations. Contra the way that George Bush and Bill Clinton were judged, most people consider the achievement of the intended result to be the very definition of success.And I find it particularly amusing that you declare the Russian law as working, even though it's only a week old and causing huge dislocations.
And, for the record, the current president of Russia, and the membership of the federal Duma are all пиздьёбляно говнососяющие свинопидерасы (plug that into your online translators!). At least as far as I'm concerned...
As for your analysis of the articles you put forth, more or less point-by-point:And Russians, too. And me, too (did I mention kindsmarauli?) But so? Most laws screw most people. The contention I made was that the laws had the immediate effect they were intended to have. And they did.The new laws are really screwing non-Russians.Fascism I dislike; corporations as creatures of the State, I dislike same as all other creatures of the State; but corporations in principle? Are you retarded? And if another reason for the laws was to aid the corporate cronies -- which is a kind of silly distinction to make, since businesses that aren't tied to the State in Russia are among those who get their balls squeezed the hardest, so 'corporate cronies' and 'corrupt politicians' here are the same guys in the vast majority of cases (unlike in the US, where they can only hold one of those jobs at a time and have to transition back and forth between them) -- well, it did that two. A success of the law that I hadn't considered. Thanks, John!This hints at what's probably really going on: Russian Corporate merchants who want to get rid of competition so they can raise prices. Remember how much you hate Corporations, Justin???? and ???Russians are unwilling to work at the same jobs for the same pay as the immigrants.You say 'corrupt' like it's a unique thing, or like the corruption in Russia is a bad thing. Frankly, most people here are much happier with the 'democratic' corruption that is accessible to all comers to the high-level corruption that simply constitutes one more source of power of the elites over the people. It's a matter of taste, I guess; I could see how someone could swing either way.The corrupt Russian police force will now have a new weapon to use against immigrants.And they'd be smart to. I mean, not only is it the place they're from -- which has a draw to many peoples that is almost inconceivable to an American product-of-a-society-of-immigrants -- but it's also got a pretty good set of economic fundamentals, and a lot of growth ahead before the 3%-ROI projects that form the bulk of 'opportunity' in the West become worth even looking at twice. As for the population decline... Let's just point out that, it wouldn't be the first time the CIA made a radically incorrect projection about Russia's future...Here's the most ridiculous thing of all: Russia's population is declining, and the immigrants are being forced out. How will this be fixed? By encouraging Russian expatriates to return to the mother country!! This I have to see. (Well, maybe they'll follow your example.)He told you about this plan? Was it delivered to you in the same folder that contained the CPPRC war plans? Do they sell those kind of things on eBay?Meanwhile, Putin has already been forced to back-pedal on many of the sanctions against Georgia, since he's now discovered that his plan to cause the downfall of the Saakashvili government is a failure.
Once the point has been made, and he figures it'd be smarter to let them go. Again, that's not the point. The laws were passed in all seriousness, implemented with seriousness, and had the effect they were intended to have. This is a characteristic of 1T lawmaking and law enforcement, not 3T/4T-boundary.How long do you think it will be before Putin back-pedals on ALL of these anti-immigration laws?
Sure. I highly encourage everyone look into as many primary-sources as possible. You are relying on primary-sources, right? In the original Russian, since the language structure is such that nuance carries over poorly in translation? I mean, I'm not the only primary-source you see, right?Fortunately I don't have to simply accept everything you say about what's going on in Russia, since there are hundreds of news sources on the Internet that provide a more complete picture.
No. Being in a 1T helps to keep out of 4T wars; other than that, all you can do is try to keep any soon-to-be-4T other players distracted or busy elsewhere. And hope.If you really believe that turning the Gestapo onto beating, extorting and exporting millions of immigrants is going to keep you out of a crisis war, then, with all due respect, you're dreaming.
http://generationaldynamics.com/gdgr...orld%20Map.GIF
The latest map. Still missing:I'd really like to complete Latin America by filling in Panama and the three Guianas. I'd also like to make more inroads into the African countries I am not sure about (I have researched them each once or twice but need help!). Finally, Asia will be complete if I can knock out Mongolia, Bhutan, Nepal, Brunei, and the Maldives.
- Panama and the three Guiana sisters
- Mongolia
- Nepal and Bhutan
- Papua New Guinea
- most of Africa
- and almost all the island countries - whether they be in the Caribbean, the Pacific, Oceania...
I would put Nepal in 4T. They are in a turbulent time right now, to say the least.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
1990, you have a sea of red surrounding two grey countries. Take some liberty.
But didn't their Civil War just end? And it began in 1996; suggests the Eastern Europe/Rwanda timeline.
This is why I haven't made the leap yet, however logical as that leap may seem.
Fine, I decided to be a little bold and put Bhutan in red. I'd really like an explanation on Nepal though, since their 10-year civil war just ended, and it began in the middle of the last turning. This would suggest that Nepal is beginning 1T just this year, right?
Anyway, aside from Nepal, I still have three Asian countries left (that I can think of):
- Mongolia: Had a Bolshevik Revolution of their own in the '10s and '20s. But was this a 2T or a 4T? It doesn't sound as violent as Russia's was. Then abolished its socialist government in 1990 and had "free" elections for the first time. Again, 2T or 4T? In any case, Mongolia does not seem to be on China's timeline. If the 1910s Revolution and 1990s Reforms were Crises, then Mongolia is on Russia's 1T timeline. If they were Awakenings, however, then it is isolated as the only 3T country in all of Asia!
- The Maldives: 1960s independence sounds 4Tish (though I suppose it could be 2T). Anti-government demonstrations have been big and ugly over the last few years. 2T? Could be 4T as well.
- Brunei: No clue yet.
Last edited by 1990; 01-24-2007 at 12:49 PM.
You're operating under the assumption that Nepal's Civil War was a crisis war and that the ceasefire will hold. I'd say 4T to be safe.
I'll look into it when I get a chance. The difference between a 2T and a 4T should be apparent if you look at a well-written guide. It's important to pick up on the attitudes of the population. Wikipedia won't help.]Anyway, aside from Nepal, I still have three Asian countries left (that I can think of):[LIST][*]Mongolia: Had a Bolshevik Revolution of their own in the '10s and '20s. But was this a 2T or a 4T? It doesn't sound as violent as Russia's was. Then abolished its socialist government in 1990 and had "free" elections for the first time. Again, 2T or 4T? In any case, Mongolia does not seem to be on China's timeline. If the 1910s Revolution and 1990s Reforms were Crises, then Mongolia is on Russia's 1T timeline. If they were Awakenings, however, then it is isolated as the only 3T country in all of Asia!
Last edited by Matt1989; 01-24-2007 at 04:20 PM.
1990,
I like the map. Did you come up with the word recovery?
Also, how did you come to your conclusions about Southern Africa?
Yes, I came up with "Recovery". The problem I had with "High" is that it has an overly positive connotation, but First Turnings aren't always "Highs". Well, maybe in America they are, but they sure aren't today in Kosovo or Rwanda, and they weren't in Iran or Indonesia during the '90s. I thought the First Turning should have a more neutral name that says what it is: a "recovery" period in which the fresh wounds are starting to heal and the new order is being, whether timidly or proudly, implemented by society.
As for Southern Africa, Xenakis had said that South Africa should be 3T since their war of independence was in the late '50s, early '60s. I agreed after researching the end of Apartheid in South Africa (in the early '90s), which sounded extremely 2Tish to me (rather than 4Tish). I have also heard that Thabo Mbeki is experiencing controversy and personality clashes in his government, and the descriptions sound like the early stages of a 3T when the ideological divisions in society are starting to gain steam as a force in themselves.
So South Africa seemed to be 3T. Then I looked at its neighbors in Southern Africa, and they all seemed to be on the same timeline. Lesotho, Botswana, and Swaziland had wars of independence around the same time as S.A., and all became independent before the new turning began worldwide in the mid-late '60s. And they all seemed to go through cultural and social changes/reforms during the '80s and '90s. Namibia became independent in 1990, in a 2T sort of way (no big 4T genocidal war or "new order").
I used "Austerity," but "Recovery" might be even better.
Sincerely,
John
1990 wins the prize
"Recovery" sounds like the one word title for that turning that fits best. A 2t is an awakening anywhere and 3t's have to unravel before the crises can happen, but there is no guarentee that a 1t will be a "high". In fact, as a southerner who knows his region's history well, I can assure you that there was very little "high" about the south during the guilded age. White southerners hated reconstruction and balck southerners hated the black codes that followed it. It's vurtually guarenteed that a region/culture that has had a bad crises outcome will be austere rather than high afterward. However, a recovery from the crises occurs regardless of the general mood/aura it is set in.
Good work 1990.:
Last edited by herbal tee; 01-25-2007 at 07:46 AM.
Both austerity and recovery work. I like em'!
Dear Justin,
It doesn't seem to matter what I say. You have your set of reasons
for believing that the 1990s was a crisis for Russia, and when I show
that they're wrong or unsupportable, you simply ignore what I've
written.
So let me summarize:
- Your fuzzy-wuzzy reasons, such as "The 1990s were sooooo hard"
and "it's a cultural-paradigm-shifting upheaval" are not supportable.
You can't define those terms in any way that distinguishes them, for
example, from 1960s America.- Your claim that the xenophobia makes Russia 1T is violated by
your own criteria: You say that "xenophobia rising" is 4T, and
clearly these new, harsh immigration laws are "xenophobia rising."- You claim, after only two weeks, that the new immigration laws
are working, and "support" this view with fatuous, irrelevant remarks
about Presidents Clinton and Bush, so I went to the trouble to post
excerpts from two dozen articles that show they are NOT working, but
are causing huge dislocations. The mere closing of two Georgian
restaurants doesn't mean they're working. These new immigration laws
not only will not work, they'll be a disaster. Already, Putin has had
to back-pedal on many of the Georgian sanctions.
Furthermore, to repeat the previous point, even if they were working,
they're still "rising xenophobia," so they're still 4T by your own
criteria.
If you want to compare it to a historical period, why don't we pick
Russia's last first turning? Stalin's "immigration law" technique
was the genocide of millions of Ukrainians. Now THAT'S something
that actually works, unlike the namby-pamby work restrictions.
If Putin really wants to get serious, and implement a law that works,
he can send his armed forces south to exterminate the Georgians. On
the way down, he can have them exterminate the Chechens as well. Now
that's something that works. Talk to me again when Putin wants to
get serious.- You claim that Russia's new laws are comparable to America's Jim
Crow laws, and you support this with some nonsense about
federalization. This ridiculous and offensive. The DESIRE of the
mass of American people after the civil war was for equality, as
indicated by passage of the 14th and 15th Amendments with wide
support; the DESIRE of the Russian people today is to implement
xenophobic laws. Furthermore, the Jim Crow laws didn't get started
until 1876, when Reconstruction ended, so they weren't even 1T laws.- Incidentally, the Bush Administration is currently aggressively
enforcing laws against illegal immigrants -- sending federal agents
into a meat-packing plant, for example, and deporting hundreds of
illegal immigrants working there. This is the correct analogy to
what's happening in Russia now.- Finally, I return to the "saeculum would be too long" argument.
As I've said many times, it's a good question why Russia has gone so
long without a crisis war, and I advanced two possible reasons:
Russia's sudden oil wealth, and the extreme violence of the Great
Patriotic War.
In a posting in another thread, David Kaiser
provided a much more complete explanation of how WW II affected
Russia's saeculum:
You may come up with some new touchy-feely argument, but as far as
coming up with anything that's defensible and supportable, you have
nothing left.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Dear Nathaniel,
You're welcome. It's perfectly OK for you to use the jxenakis.com
domain in your address, but just for your information it will also
work exactly the same if you use generationaldynamics.com in the URL,
since the two domains share the same directory structure.
Anyway, the map looks great, and it's quite dramatic when you study
it for a while. Thanks for doing it.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Dear Rick,
We now have these three different words, and they all express
different concepts about the first turning:
- Austerity: This is a "Hero-centric" word, since it focuses
on the new austere compromises and rules that the Hero generation
imposes on society to prevent a new crisis war from ever happening,
ever again.- High: This is a "Prophet-centric" word, since it focuses
on the feelings of the Prophets who are enjoying the fruits of the
crisis war, without having had to live through it.- Recovery: This is a "generation-neutral" word, and
therefore probably the best choice, since everyone can agree that a
recovery is necessary.
I'd like to ask you about your statement that "White southerners
hated reconstruction."
Several weeks ago, I asked Jenny if the 1960s was a "High" for
Germans, even though they'd lost the war. Here's her reply:
So my question is: Is there anything corresponding to this in the
case of post-Reconstruction south? Is there any sense in which
Reconstruction was a "high" for the southern civil war Prophet
generation?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Personally, I'm agnostic about which turning Russia is in (I plead ignorance), so I don't have a dog in this fight.
However, Dr. David Kaiser, who's brother is a noted journalist who's has spent time and written about Russia (Robert Kaiser, FWIW), also agrees with Justin M. that Russia is in a 1T now and that WWI/Bolshevik Revolution and the 1990s collapse of Communism were both 4Ts.
So there are persuasive arguments for Justin's viewpoint as well as your own (which is supported by some very persuasive posts by former poster Brian Rush).
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
I must have missed. When did you prove a damned thing?I mean, you make a whole lot of Statements, but you're pretty thin on proof.
What's that about?
Hmm. Interesting that you've never challenged me to do that. But decided that I'm fuzzy-wuzzy anyway (not true; my family is from eastern europe, not India...). I should think that the two major events of the Russian 4T -- that is, the collapse of a governing and social paradigm (and empire); and the collapse of a currency -- would be enough to set them apart from the 60s. But to a dogmatist, I suppose they might not be convincing.Your fuzzy-wuzzy reasons, such as "The 1990s were sooooo hard" and "it's a cultural-paradigm-shifting upheaval" are not supportable. You can't define those terms in any way that distinguishes them, for example, from 1960s America.How is that? There have been harsh laws and even harsher racist and nationalist behavior in Russia for at least since the mid-90s. That would be, it has been more or less stable, since it reached its current level back during the 4T. I know for certain that I spelled that out much the same way before as I did here just now; it didn't penetrate the membrane them, so my expectations now are low. I can theorize as to why your method for research might cause you to believe that racism is on the rise. Back seven years ago or so, Putin was the good guy; best bud of America and soul-mate of the president. Of course, back then, racism didn't exist -- so far as the establishment was interested in hammering. Now that Putin is the New Hitler (or was that the New Stalin, it's hard to keep track), of course everything bad about his nation makes the news cycle. This is just a theory, of course. But it does have the merit of overlapping quite strongly with actual historical events...Your claim that the xenophobia makes Russia 1T is violated by your own criteria: You say that "xenophobia rising" is 4T, and clearly these new, harsh immigration laws are "xenophobia rising."And again you contradict yourself. To help, consider the two sentences that you typed, "the new immigration laws... are NOT working". and then "[the laws] are causing huge dislocations". Umm. when you have a bunch of illegal immigrants, the idea of stronger immigration laws is to cause massive dislocation. It's called, "getting rid of the illegal immigrants". You see, when you do A to get B and B happens, A worked. It may have been dumb because it also causes C and D, but it was effective in getting what it was meant to get nonetheless.You claim, after only two weeks, that the new immigration laws are working, and "support" this view with fatuous, irrelevant remarks about Presidents Clinton and Bush, so I went to the trouble to post excerpts from two dozen articles that show they are NOT working, but are causing huge dislocations. The mere closing of two Georgian restaurants doesn't mean they're working. These new immigration laws not only will not work, they'll be a disaster. Already, Putin has had to back-pedal on many of the Georgian sanctions.How rising? Russians aren't any more racist than they have been for the past decade; their government has just finally had the circumstance arise where they could take action on the racism. Law doesn't necessarily track directly after social currents -- particularly in a place where the forces of Democracy are a bit more diffuse relative to the US. Xenophobia is a way people are, not a set of laws passedFurthermore, to repeat the previous point, even if they were working, they're still "rising xenophobia," so they're still 4T by your own criteria.True. And it caused massive dislocation just like this one does. Not all countries are peopled by citizens who are willing to commit genocide; even racists will frequent pull up short of that one. But the product matches the goal.If you want to compare it to a historical period, why don't we pick Russia's last first turning? Stalin's "immigration law" technique was the genocide of millions of Ukrainians. Now THAT'S something that actually works, unlike the namby-pamby work restrictions.Civilized people don't usually countenance those sort of things from their governments (except during the depths of 4Ts, occasionally). The goal of the racists in Russia is to clean out Russia. Why are you so infatuated by genocide? It was tried here before, and it sucked even for the people who weren't directly targetted. So it's kind of like, they know better. Maybe one day you will, too.If Putin really wants to get serious, and implement a law that works, he can send his armed forces south to exterminate the Georgians. On the way down, he can have them exterminate the Chechens as well. Now that's something that works. Talk to me again when Putin wants to get serious.HAR! Holy crap! Your school was almost as bad as mine, if that's what you think. What the hell do you think happened in the early 20th century, if not the beginnings of the turning of American society away from the mentality that desired Jim Crow and towards an actual desire for equality. And where did Jim Crow come from if not from the desire of the people? Alien mind-control probes?You claim that Russia's new laws are comparable to America's Jim Crow laws, and you support this with some nonsense about federalization. This ridiculous and offensive. The DESIRE of the mass of American people after the civil war was for equality.Yeah, right. You know, federal agents were being sent to fast food places back when I worked at Taco Bell umm... back almost ten years ago. And cleaning out a fair number of Mexicans from the places. What Bush is doing is neither new nor particularly effective (nor meant to be effective, if one assumes that he wants to do something about illegal immigration). The correct analogy would be were Bush (or someone) to take the kinds of steps that some people here are recommending -- to massively punish employers of illegal immigrants; to cut off their capability to get medical care, send their children to school, drive, and do anything else that lets them function in the US. Or to go through the phone book and visit the homes of every Hernandez, Ramirez, Juarez, and so forth and throw out the ones that can't prove on the spot that they belong. Or is Bush doing that now?Incidentally, the Bush Administration is currently aggressively enforcing laws against illegal immigrants -- sending federal agents into a meat-packing plant, for example, and deporting hundreds of illegal immigrants working there. This is the correct analogy to what's happening in Russia now.It's not my argument; I'm not sure I really care about it; but most important, I'm not of the camp that believes that war is the defining feature of a 4T. I would think that the several examples brought up by the several posters that cast doubt on this contention of yours would at least give you pause before repeating it as if it were indisputably axiomatic. But I guess I would think incorrectly, in that case...Finally, I return to the "saeculum would be too long" argument. As I've said many times, it's a good question why Russia has gone so long without a crisis war, and I advanced two possible reasons: Russia's sudden oil wealth, and the extreme violence of the Great Patriotic War.
And as for your quote from Kaiser. I'm really surprised; I would have thought that you were quoting someone who agreed with you and disagreed with me. But instead:
"They have obviously been in crisis since 1991." (You'd really need to date it back a bit further, but he's got the right basic idea)
and "The Soviet Union OBVIOUSLY had a 4T from 1917 to sometime in the early 1930s"
So where does he match your timeline at all?
