- Join Date
- Sep 2006
- Location
- Moorhead, MN, USA
- Posts
- 14,442
Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis
I really like the term "Recovery" It's a lot more general, it's understood by everyone, and it simply seems to fit every 4T I've ever heard of.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."
"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.
I see we continue to inspire and steal from each other.While we have some differences, a lot of this is in agreement. You can see my map in my signature to compare the two.
As a side note, you think Nepal has entered 1T since the Civil War ended? Intuitively, I am inclined to agree, even though it is surrounded by 4T countries. (After all, the Civil War started in the LAST turning)
If I can nail down Nepal and Brunei, I will have Asia completed.
If only the same could be said for Latin America, Africa, and Oceania. Northern hemisphere bias?
By the way the Maoists have acted I am inclined to sat 1T, or at the very least post-climax 4T. If it was still pre-climax the Maoists woulds still be trying to fight their way to power, IMO.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Dear Justin,
If Russia is currently in a first turning, please tell me:
- When did the fourth turning start?
- What event caused the Regeneracy, and when did it occur?
- What was the Climax event, and when did it occur?
- What was the Resolution, and when did it occur?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Interesting observation and another reason why the word "recovery" may evolve as the consensus term for a 1t.
First off, let me say that having taken German in high school, Jenny's observation was also that of my German teacher. If Germans talked much about the war years, they didn't usually make foreigners privy to their thoughts. At least not as of the late 1970's when I was in that class.I'd like to ask you about your statement that "White southerners
hated reconstruction."
So my question is: Is there anything corresponding to this in the
case of post-Reconstruction south? Is there any sense in which
Reconstruction was a "high" for the southern civil war Prophet
generation?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
From what I understand, the alienation often associated with white southerners in the post civil war period was pretty widespread. There were many towns, especially in the deep south that did not celebrate the 4th of July for example for decades after 1865.
I really think that in many cases, it took the occurence of the next war in 1898 before the hostility began to break down. Ironically, seeing a young prophet generation of missionaries dressed in union blue probabally helped heal things a little. I recall reading about southern elders who at the time of the Spanish-American War finally felt "American" again when they saw young men who were friends and neighbors marching in formation under the stars and stripes.
I am inclined to agree, but a little quick research makes the situation more confusing.
The 1970s appear to have been very much a 2T decade for Nepal. Student demonstrations, riots, anti-government activities, the whole enchilada. This suggests them being on the same timeline as the U.S., and for that matter the rest of the Indian subcontinent.
The divisions and tensions seem to have grown in the 1980s and '90s. But this would point to the Civil War being a 3T war, meaning that, counterintuitively, the end of the fighting means the beginning of the 4T. Que?
Nepal obviously needs some more research. Now that I've more or less settled my mind on Russia's status (that having been my greatest headache for the last couple months), Nepal is going to be my new brain-wracking, exhausting project.
Let me add to the chorus on that. As Jenny points out, unlike 'High', which implies good times, 'Recovery' is much more applicable to all instances of 1T, follow they happily or unhappily-concluded 4Ts.
I'm going to say Perestroika/Gorbachev's first term. That'd be 1985-1986. It's frankly a bit of a surprise to me, since I had been assuming that the major societal changes were all close to adjacent to the '91 end of the USSR, but in the last couple days, soliciting opinions from people who were actually there, it looks like the big huge social moment was right in that area, and even as far as five years before the end, society was undergoing massive changes.Regeneracy would maybe be the actual official ending of the USSR in 1991. It was publicly acknowledged that things had changed and that there was no going back. And that people had better start figuring out what to do as far as new paradigms goWhat event caused the Regeneracy, and when did it occur?Let's sway, the ruble default of 1998. It represented a major failure of a number of at-the-time competing models for the way the new society was to be formed. And as a result, a 'winner' came to be recognizable from among the competing systems.What was the Climax event, and when did it occur?I hate myself for saying it, but it could very well be that Putin's election (or maybe the first time he successfully prevailed in some sort of test of power. That would put it at either 2000 or 2001.). Things have certainly been a lot more 'resolved', socially, economically, and politically-speaking since he took over -- be it for good or ill, resolved, nonetheless. So it does kind of make sense...What was the Resolution, and when did it occur?
I am NOT the Grey Badger. Despite my advanced years, I don't have gray hair yet (I highlight to make my hair more interesting, not to cover up gray).
I do agree with the consensus that "Recovery" is the best term to use.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
D'oh! I should really start proofreading a bit more closely, huh?..
No, Wonkette. From where I sit, you are an official, card-carrying member of the Younger Generation.I am NOT the Grey Badger. Despite my advanced years, I don't have gray hair yet (I highlight to make my hair more interesting, not to cover up gray).
I do agree with the consensus that "Recovery" is the best term to use.
(signed) Yomama/ Granny Pat / The Grey Badger
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."
"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.
Yeah, but as a Boomer and a card-carrying member of AARP, I can rightfully claim the title of "Old Geezer".
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
But if all you need is an AARP card to be an Old Geezer, isn't Kim Cattrall now old enough to be an Old Geezer?Yeah, but as a Boomer and a card-carrying member of AARP, I can rightfully claim the title of "Old Geezer".
Try telling her that.
Dear Justin,
The problem is that this doesn't really makes sense.
What you want is for the Crisis to be resolved by the transition from
the Soviet Union to the CIS. I believe that most people who agree
with you that the 1990s decade was a crisis for Russia take that
position because of this transition. But you have this transition
occurring at the end of the decade rather than at the beginning. So
your timing is all wrong.
Instead, your crisis is a fairly common currency problem -- in fact,
there were currency problems throughout Asia at that time. So this
doesn't make sense as a crisis.
Remember that the crisis is "human history's equivalent to nature's
raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a
single swirl of ferocious energy. Anything not lashed down goes
flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened." A currency
default doesn't qualify.
Next, the election of Putin makes no sense whatsoever as the
resolution. First, electing Putin has no particular relationship to
the currency default. Second, I doubt that Putin would hesitate for
a second to let the currency default again if he thought it would
help him politically. So the election of Putin doesn't resolve the
currency default in any way that I can see.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
To you. Alright. But to the people who were there, it makes prett damned good sense. It even came as a bit of a surprise to me (prior to finding out more about the times from primary sources, I held very much the same assessment as you describe below), but makes sense now that I understand a bit better how things were then and what actually happened. Life is all about the learning process, and I've found that chasing down things that don't make sense to you results in your ending up adopting them as your own almost as often as it does in you bludgeoning them into submission. Either way, it leaves one better off.
It is actually what I thought, until I got to start looking in more than just timeline-detail. The end of the Crisis wouldn't be the declaration of the CIS, but the establishment, within the dominant paradigm of which the CIS is a component, of a stable society. That, too, is one of the key characteristics of a 1T (a stable society), and it didn't happen for several years after the transition to the new governing bodies -- which itself happened pretty quickly. Inside Russia, chaos reigned and in fact there was a genuinely-felt risk of further collapse and chaos even of the CIS paradigm until sometime shortly after the default. It's not to say that a leader couldn't elect to default again sometime; but were one to do so now, the Russian society would be confidently expected to weather it and come out on the other side substantively unchanged. I don't put the person of Putin as the harbinger of the 1T (in fact, I said as much in my answer to you). But the transition from the Yeltsin regime to the Putin one very, very closely overlapped with the end of the Russian Fourth Turning. Suffice to say, sometime between the default and the arrest of the first of the oligarchs (who did in fact represent a threat to the nascent stability of Russia's 1T), the 1T came into full swing here.What you want is for the Crisis to be resolved by the transition from the Soviet Union to the CIS. I believe that most people who agree with you that the 1990s decade was a crisis for Russia take that position because of this transition. But you have this transition occurring at the end of the decade rather than at the beginning. So
your timing is all wrong.
The Crisis was the collapse of a socioeconomic paradigm that had held for generations, and the chaos of the interregnum before a new paradigm was chosen. Crises aren't single events; rather they are illuminated by the way a society responds to the events of a period of time. When I call the default the Climax, you need to keep in mind the fact that such a thing is in fact a major event, and that depending on the capability of a societies other existing structures to soften its effects, it can range from "bad" to "catastrophic". After all, stock markets crash all the time, too. But one crash in particular came at a time when it set off a 4T in the USA. For Russia the default came at a time where societal institutions were just beginning to be reformed after the demolition of the old paradigm; where no semblance whatsoever of 'safety net' existed.Instead, your crisis is a fairly common currency problem -- in fact, there were currency problems throughout Asia at that time. So this doesn't make sense as a crisis.
Frankly, your comment on this matter is silly and a bit rude. Have you ever been through a default? Or talked to people who have? Then how the hell do you know what it's like under any circumstances? To say nothing of what it was like under the conditions that prevailed at the time in Russia.
Setting aside the earlier point about your abject ignorance of society under currency defaults, you seem to have overlooked the fact that I have nowhere said that the default was the Crisis. Rather, the default was the last big blow of a Crisis that by then was almost two decades underway. To analogize with something that I am fairly confident you do know something about, World War 2 was not America's Crisis, and in fact came over fifteen years (the US' part at least) into the Crisis. The default actually fits perfectly.Remember that the crisis is "human history's equivalent to nature's raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl of ferocious energy. Anything not lashed down goes flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened." A currency default doesn't qualify.
Your last paragraph has already been dealt with almost in its entirety in my reponses above. However, one point could still be made:Umm. Except for the fact that the default is what ended Yeltsin's regime? And that Putin was the guy who replaced him? I suppose that if A caused B and C was dependent on the occurrence of B, there is absolutely no relationship at all between A and C?...electing Putin has no particular relationship to the currency default.
Not that it's really critical to the argument one way or another; like I said, Putin's presidency coincided with the end of the Russian Crisis, but I'd hardly say that he caused it. Turnings don't work that way, anyway...
Dear Justin,
I can't think of anything I could add to my two recent posts on this
subject.
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...postcount=1921
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...postcount=1940
Why don't we suspend this discussion for now until there's some more
news. That shouldn't take very long, and it may clarify the
situation.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Fair enough. Why don't we both use the time to widen our source base? I'll start hitting up, via email, some contacts I have out in the Russian Far East (they say that Russian society even out in Vladivostok is experiencing the same things as society in the european parts, but frankly, I'm not convinced of it...) to see what they have to say about the past 20-25 years.
1990, I sent you a private message detailing my version of the map. I don't know the alert system on TFT so I'm just letting you know here.
Thanks in advance.
Thanks. I will make a Microsoft Paint GIF of it and add it to the GD FTP. Later I'll post the link with your very own map, Paint-ified!
Okay. Let me know what countries you want changed, and I will do it ASAP. Your gig is a week from today? I promise it will be done well before then, as it takes no time at all to re-color. Depending on when you send me the details, I can have it done almost immediately.
Great, I'll PM you the changes over the next day or so. Just how do you do it?
Just creating a Microsoft Paint file and coloring in the countries however you want. I then save it on the GD FTP site. Will this work for you?
Once again, thanks
Code:Libya- 4T Tunisia- 4T Morocco- 4T Niger- 4T Mali- 4T Nepal- 4T Haiti- 4T Panama-4T Every Blue Country in Europe and Asia (except the Balkans) - 4T Somalia- Grey South Africa- Grey
Okay. I will make this a link at the GD FTP site ASAP.
