MichaelEaston:
Here is your map, in GIF format:
http://generationaldynamics.com/gdgraphics/MichaelEaston's%20map.GIF
Tell me if there's anything wrong with this. I can fix any problems pretty easily.
I'm sorry, but I have to correct something.
[QUOTE=John J. Xenakis;189311]
Nooooooooo. England was 1T during our Civil War; that's why they sat out when they could have entered that war on the Southern side. England's Crisis Wars were the Crimean War, 1854-1856, followed sharply by the Indian Independence Mutiny, 1857.Code:England American Civil War, 1859 - 1865 (or perhaps at the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation, 1863)
The timing is critical, because the WWI "Doughboys" entered the war without any idea of what war was like: 60 years had passed since the Crimean War, and there were few left to tell them what they were getting into.
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"
That the American Civil War was a crisis war for England was aOriginally Posted by catfishncod
surprise to me as well, but that conclusion was reached after
studying several histories and a lengthy discussion involving several
people including David Krein, for whom 1900s England is a particular
area of expertise.
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...postcount=1774
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...postcount=1775
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...postcount=1796
It's true that the Charge of the Light Brigade makes for compelling
drama, but it's only one remote battle in a war that, for England,
was fraught with indecision and confusion. I would need to see a lot
more historical evidence to believe that the Crimean War was a crisis
war for England.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Dear Matt,
Thanks, Nathaniel, for helping Matt out.
Matt, this is a great map, and I think it's pretty accurate.
What's striking about it is how much of the world is in red. From a
purely technical point of view this isn't surprising, since we're at
a time when all the WW II countries and many of the WW II countries
are in a crisis era.
But it's scary when you think about what it really means to all of
us.
This brings to mind two recent postings of yours:
So I guess I'm wrong about Millies being anywhere near "placid," huh?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
1990, this is wonderful. I owe you one.
Well it should be.Some liberty was taken, but I do believe that this at least nails down the proper turning of the regions of the world.
Apparently, I still have a ways to go in Africa.
Knowing how it was going to turn out, I was still surprised by the sea of red. Should be an interesting crisis.What's striking about it is how much of the world is in red. From a
purely technical point of view this isn't surprising, since we're at
a time when all the WW II countries and many of the WW II countries
are in a crisis era.
Lol..Looking back from 2015, we'll seem placid.So I guess I'm wrong about Millies being anywhere near "placid," huh?
Interesting points, and I might agree that the Fourth Turning continued for England into 1865... but England didn't fight. It hemmed and hawed and reinforced Canada and intervened in the French attempt to conquer Mexico (more on Mexico later)... but something held it back from the "total war" mentality that usually constitutes a crisis war. Countries that hang back from crisis wars are usually fringe countries, which 1861 Great Britain most certainly was not.
I notice that you completely skirt the issue of the "First War of Indian Independence", aka the "Sepoy Mutiny", aka the "Uprising of 1857". If you are right and the Crimean conflict was 3T, I'd like to see you characterize this. I grant that it is more directly an Indian 4T war, but given that India was the Jewel of the Empire, it's hard to see this being anything but a Crisis War for the UK. The debate over the Second Opium War also took place in the year 1857, and the content of those debates in the Commons remind me very much of current debates in Congress; they have that cascade feeling. Due to communications delays, the UK was still dealing with the Indian rebellion in 1858, at which time they also had to deal with the Orsini affair (a terror-like plot, with a Homeland-Security-like response).
These were the matters that led me to conclude that Britain hit her 4T stride about the year 1857. You are correct about the incompetence of the Crimean War... perhaps it was a "Phony Fourth" conflict, as the Iraq War is this cycle.
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"
British Crisis 1857-1873
Don't forget the Panic of 1857 and the cattle plague of that year. The Crimean War was blundered into, and badly fought by all sides (except the French performed fairly well), and petered out after Nicholas I's death, l;eadin the the Great Reform Crisis in Russiain the 1860s. It was a typical 3rd Turning War. Britain's Crisis lasted until 1873 when Gladstone tried to resign and Disraeli wouldn't let him. The result was an Adaptive Generation born from 1856 to 1872, that not only produced the Fabians but the appeasers of the 1930s.
Pax,
Dave Krein '42
"The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on; nor all your Piety nor Wit shall lure it back to cancel half a line, Nor all your Tears wash out a word of it." - Omar Khayyam.
Yes, dating the British (as opposed to Russian) Reform Crisis from 1857 to at least 1873 makes sense to me. In fact, I am tempted to see it continue until the Congress of Berlin (1878) or even up to the last reform wave in the early 1880's. I even toy with a 1865-1885 4T (death of Palmerston to last reform act), but have been largely talked out of it.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Knocking out the remainder
I have been reworking the map slightly by adding Haiti, Panama, and the Central African Republic in 4T red. (These changes have not been posted online yet, because I'm waiting for some more enlightenment from you guys before I do so!) Haiti seems to have had a crisis in World War II (like many countries, it was absorbed into the European timeline due to colonization), as did Panama (due to U.S. influence, presumably). And the C.A.R. is now equally embroiled in the Chad-Sudan crisis.
However, I removed Somalia from 4T red. They have been having a civil war since 1988. Doesn't that mean Somalia should be going 1T later in the turning?
If I can knock out the last bits in Latin America, Asia, and Oceania I can focus exclusively on finishing Africa and all the Caribbean and South Pacific island countries. In Latin America, all that's left are the three Guyanas. In Asia, just Nepal (I keep thinking the end of the civil war is pointing to 1T, but there is still a lot of unrest there, and why on earth would Nepal be isolated in blue between the huge influences of a 4T India and a 4T China?). In Oceania, just Papua New Guinea of course.
As for Africa, this is one hell of a continent to study. Angola and Mozambique are 1T right now, but since their civil wars were extremely long, and both started in the '70s, shouldn't they be heading into 2T later in the turning? I'm not sure yet. Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi, sandwiched between Angola and Mozambique, remain mysteries. And everything from Eritrea east to Somalia and south to Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania is unsolved.
Guinea is very interesting right now. Lots of protests and riots. But I'm not sure if they are 2T or 4T in nature.
Anyway, I need some help.
Why World War Two for Haiti? I believe their crisis was during the American occupation of 1915-1934. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/haiti19.htm
I could be wrong about Panama, but I could not find a crisis in the 20th century.
I don't think U.S. influence could automatically reset cycles to the our timeline. I don't see how generational archetypes could be dissolved because an occupational force is in place or aspects of Western culture are becoming more prevalent.
I only think this sort of thing could take place over multiple saeculums.
I just returned from school on Friday and I have a week off. Plus, I owe you one.However, I removed Somalia from 4T red. They have been having a civil war since 1988. Doesn't that mean Somalia should be going 1T later in the turning?
If I can knock out the last bits in Latin America, Asia, and Oceania I can focus exclusively on finishing Africa and all the Caribbean and South Pacific island countries. In Latin America, all that's left are the three Guyanas. In Asia, just Nepal (I keep thinking the end of the civil war is pointing to 1T, but there is still a lot of unrest there, and why on earth would Nepal be isolated in blue between the huge influences of a 4T India and a 4T China?). In Oceania, just Papua New Guinea of course.
As for Africa, this is one hell of a continent to study. Angola and Mozambique are 1T right now, but since their civil wars were extremely long, and both started in the '70s, shouldn't they be heading into 2T later in the turning? I'm not sure yet. Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi, sandwiched between Angola and Mozambique, remain mysteries. And everything from Eritrea east to Somalia and south to Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania is unsolved.
Guinea is very interesting right now. Lots of protests and riots. But I'm not sure if they are 2T or 4T in nature.
Anyway, I need some help.
Well, Panama is hugely influenced by the U.S., moreso than even Mexico. But I take your point.
Anyhow, if Haiti was in crisis during the '20s, wouldn't that mean the turbulence of the '90s was their 4T and they are now in 1T?
I just returned from school on Friday and I have a week off. Plus, I owe you one.[/quote]
That is so nice of you! As I said I need a lot of help, especially with Africa, Island Countries, the Guiana triplets, and Nepal.
You and I might be in disagreement about a lot of stuff if you believe that the 80-year cycle must be so rigid. Generationally, Haiti is a fair deal ahead of the U.S., but they haven't had their crisis yet, so things will continually get worse for them, as it will for us. John X. hypothesizes that they haven't had one yet because of the huge amounts of $$ they receive in aid, which seems reasonable enough.
Sure, I'll post my findings and some evidence to back it up.That is so nice of you! As I said I need a lot of help, especially with Africa, Island Countries, the Guiana triplets, and Nepal.
And John, I do take notes.
Last edited by Matt1989; 02-11-2007 at 10:57 PM.
Got it!!And John, I do take notes.
John
South-East AfricaAs for Africa, this is one hell of a continent to study. Angola and Mozambique are 1T right now, but since their civil wars were extremely long, and both started in the '70s, shouldn't they be heading into 2T later in the turning? I'm not sure yet. Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi, sandwiched between Angola and Mozambique, remain mysteries. And everything from Eritrea east to Somalia and south to Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania is unsolved.
I read up a little on Mozambique and Angola and their civil wars are crisis wars for them.
Mozambique's war was not unusally long (~17 years -- 1975-1992).
Angola's seems to have began in 1974, climaxed in 1989, concluding in 1991. The period between 1991 and 2002 reads like a post-crisis war, although it is lumped together with the pre-1991 fighting. From what I've read, the post-ceasefire fighting (1991) was localized and sporadic. There were also attempts to rebuild and install governments, which indicates that the focus was on peace and not on war. They should both be in the latter stages of the 'recovery' now.
More study will have to be done on centuries before the recent wars, but it's not surprising that they occured at the same time.
I would expect Zambia, sandwiched between all that blue to be at the same stage as well. There is no evidence of a major war during that time, but the civil wars in neighboring countries brought thousands and thousands of refugees. When coupled with an economic depression, I can definitely see the 1975-1990 period as being a crisis. 1T
Zimbabwe apparently had a civil war/guerilla war whose timing is shifted 10 years earlier. It would seem that it would be a crisis, but I can not be sure at this point and I'll have to do more research.
I would expect Malawi to be in the same place as the rest of these countries despite having no obvious crisis war. 1T
Thank you so much. I didn't think Angola's war could be 28 years long!
So then, the Congos and Rwanda/Burundi are early 1T, but Angola, Mozambique, and these other countries are late 1T, and will hit 2T by 2015 (my measure, because it is deep into the turning) in all likelihood? In that case they should be green on my map.
BTW: I am really grateful for these analyses. You are really helping me. Thanks.
Last edited by 1990; 02-13-2007 at 01:59 AM.
The map looks good. No conclusion on Panama?
Yes we did!
Africa in a High??? No way. The Rwandan massacre was likely the regional 4T Catalyst, not the Climax... which means they are deeper into the Fourth Turning than America is. Indeed, with AIDS ravaging the continent into negative population growth, how can they be in anything but a Crisis?
"Better hurry. There's a storm coming. His storm!!!" :-O -Abigail Freemantle, "The Stand" by Stephen King
Rwanda was experiencing increasing amounts of ethnic violence through the 1980s, leading to the 1990s massacre and civil war. Today Rwanda, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and the other formerly-4T countries are experiencing relative peace and rebuilding.
Also, I don't believe in Highs, especially not for Africa. Most countries don't experience any sort of "high" after a genocidal civil war. For me a 1T is a "Recovery", and if you go by that standard, the "scary places" of the '90s (Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Kosovo...) are definitely in a 1T now.
Panama is a pain that I'll eventually have to revisit. Care to assist?
Can you elaborate?
Africa is on many different timelines, moreso than any other continent, which explains why they seem to have so many wars.
The Tutsi migration back to Rwanda served as the catalyst, which sparked a civil war from 1990-1994. To view the lightning-fast massacre as anything but a climax is really bizarre, since I have traditionally viewed it as the most obvious climax in all of history. Such a violent outburst of genocidal energy cannot be viewed as anything but a climax.
The war spilled over into Zaire, which was Zaire's catalyst. The first Congo War began, and then the extremely violent Second Congo war followed (the bloodiest since WWII). Climaxes typically come within a year or two of the resolution, but this is an exception. Rwanda was a major participant in the war on both sides, but the energy never reached the same level as it did in 1994.
The war came to an end in 2003, and they are currently rebuilding their fragile states.
And what exactly does AIDS have to do with this?
It depends on what you want to show. I assume by suggesting 2015 you mean by the time where we are deep into the regeneracy, so you are looking at who our 4T may involve, which is the same thing I did although I left the date ambiguous. China, of course, should be colored red even if it is in an unraveling because it would give the wrong impression.
From a U.S. standpoint, it doesn't matter so much what turning the Congo or Rwanda is in, unlike China. But if you are intent on sticking to 2015, then all late 1T countries will be 2T, all late 2T countries will be 3T, and so on. I was giving the turnings in the present. You'll have to look at my end dates.
Or you can let your viewers make their own conclusions.
And you are welcome! We're not too far from the goal, although some countries will have to be revisited.
Well, thank you so much for being a consistent help on this.
I suppose that, as far as my map goes, the priorities would be Nepal and the three Guianas. Then we could focus on Africa, and once that was done, tackle the hardest part: islands in the Caribbean and South Pacific. It sounds like a lot but it's really not, given how quickly we've been moving along.
If we can establish whether Nepal's civil war was a 4T or not, we will know whether it is 1T in 2015 or not. That finishes Eurasia. And I assume all three Guianas are probably on the same timeline. (Guyana, famed for its Kool-Aid, looks superficially 2T to me, but more research is needed). Establishing this would finish Latin America.
And yes, we may need to revisit some things, but most of the choices I've made (or you've convinced me to make) I am secure with.
George Dubya Bush is considered an international joke, an
embarrassment to America, because he keeps saying stupid things, like
"wipe Iran off the map" and "send liberals back to Europe" and "the
Reichstag Fire wasn't a False Flag Operation" and "we'll bomb any nuclear plants we'd like." There's been talk in the alternative news media that the military will revolt because he's such a clown.
Does Iran's President Want Israel Wiped Off The Map - Does He Deny The Holocaust?
http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle12790.htm
In present-day society the instruments of labour are the monopoly of the landowners (the monopoly of property in land is even the basis of the monopoly of capital) and the capitalists is usually not even the owner of the land on which his factory stands." -- Karl Marx, 1875
IF YOU SEE A HAUGHTY COMMUNIST HUN IN A HEIßLUFTBALLONE, CALL ON THE OFFICE OF FATHERLAND SECRECY wlhaught5873847tooth@att.net Extract tooth to reply.
http://tinyurl.com/2gjl77
http://tinyurl.com/22x6n7
I'm hesitant about making conclusions about Nepal right now because I still have no clue about India, which may be on a couple different timelines. The relevation that the American Civil War was a crisis for England clears up a lot of things about the 1857 Rebellion in India.
I think the 1857 Rebellion was a crisis for at least a part of India, if not for the entire country. Anyways, I have tried to tackle India before, and it is an extremely difficult case. I have found it to be one of the hardest countries to figure out, if not the hardest. I especially get worked up about the Independence movement.
Maybe you can take a look at it. Something to remember is that following the partition in 1947, tens of millions of Muslims and Hindus fled and migrated to India. I believe that in order to understand its cycle, you'll have to have a real knowledge of the country and its history. However, I've assumed it is in a crisis era since the 1970's appear to be an awakening.
Last edited by Matt1989; 02-15-2007 at 02:16 PM.
