John, I think we've been over this before, but have you done any research on India?
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John, I think we've been over this before, but have you done any research on India?
Dear Matt,
The last time I posted anything on this subject was the summary IOriginally Posted by MichaelEaston
posted here:
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...postcount=1289
I haven't done any research since then.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Guinea is experiencing massive strikes and calls for President Conte to resign. Conte has instituted martial law and a nationwide curfew in view of the disorder. 2T or 4T?
Dear Nathaniel,
I spent about an hour reading some very brief histories of Guinea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_West_Africa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Guinea
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications...k/geos/gv.html
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2824.htm
http://www.africanet.com/africanet/c...ea/history.htm
http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/...historyid=ad15
None of these sources provided anything solid to go on, so I'll
speculate and make some inferences.
Guinea became a French colony (and was called French Guinea) in 1898,
when the French defeated the warlord Almamy Samory Touré. This
appears to be a crisis war.
Guinea because independent of France in 1958, after a political
victory by Ahmed Sékou Touré who, I assume, is the son or grandson of
the aforementioned warlord.
Nobody calls what happens in the 1960s a "war," and that's where all
the confusion lies. However, there was a great deal of turmoil, and
there were 250,000 Guineans living in exile (about 10% of the
population) by the end of the 1960s. So this appears to have been a
crisis war, and the climax appears to have occurred in 1971, when a
Portuguese-sponsored invasion by Guinean exiles was defeated.
Obviously a lot more research is needed, especially details about the
exact nature of the 1960s period.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
So the 1960s and early '70s was a time of "ugliness" without a clear war. Still sounds 4T.
Like you say, needs more research, but sounds like a strong case for being 2T now. Thanks, as always!
Update: The situation described when Lansana Conte began office in 1984-85 sounds strongly like the beginning of a 1T. A coup was attempted, but there was no support for it, and Conte immediately began an "austerity" agenda. (What an ironic choice of words). So I'm leaning 2T at this point.
When researching Africa, I came across Guinea but couldn't make any solid conclusions. What you've wrote seems likely, but I wouldn't rule out Guinea being in a 5T.
When researching Africa, I came across Guinea but couldn't make any solid conclusions. What you've wrote seems likely, but I wouldn't rule out Guinea being in a 5T. I saw indications of a rebellion in the 1960's but there was nothing to suggest that it was 4T, except for the timing.
Dear Matt,
I agree that the 1960s in Guinea may have been an Awakening era, but I
just want to point out that there's a lot more than timing to indicate
that it's a crisis era.
Here's an excerpt from the U.S. State Department background note on
Guineau:
If this had been an Awakening era, I would have expected to see
SOMETHING about student demonstrations, or a Tienanmen Square type
massacre. This is the problem when we have so little information to
go on, because it's possible that some kind of student demonstrations
occurred but simply aren't mentioned in the brief histories of that
time we have available.
Another fact is this:
Once again, this is very sparse information, but it looks like things
changed dramatically after the failed Portuguese invasion, and this
description looks like a Recovery Era to me.
Finally, there's one more intuitive thing, and this supports your
point about timing: In 1898, the French beat "Touré"; in 1958, "Touré"
beat the French. This is the kind of secular "flip-flop" that often
occurs in consecutive Crisis eras, and is far less likely to occur in
an Awakening era.
So, none of this is conclusive without a much better understanding of
the 1960s period, but there are several markers pointing to the 1960s
being a 4T for Guinea, but no significant markers (especially student
demonstrations) pointing to the 1960s being a 2T.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Another reason to put Guinea in 2T: one of the key characteristics in S&H of each turning was the supply of civic order versus the demand for it:
1T -- High public demand for order, supply of order begins to rise (a mood of relative stability implants)
2T -- Public demand for order falls, supply of order peaks (government tries to squash riots, strikes, protests, and/or fringe activities)
3T -- Low public demand for order, supply of order begins to fall (a mood of relative disorder implants)
4T -- Public demand for order rises, supply of order crashes (government is in meltdown)
In Guinea, Lansana Conte put the country under martial law and instituted a curfew, as I previously mentioned. This sounds like a classic 2T happening, not something that usually happens in other turnings: government is shocked at the public's sudden change of heart, and so overreaches trying to maintain 1T stability, in the end to no avail.
In other words, Guinea's supply of order in government is very high, but the protesters are only made more angry by Conte using this order.
One more thought: Toure sounds like he was the "leader" of a 4T lasting from the '60s through 1984. There is typically only one grand leader in a 4T. Not best described as a Grey Champion, but definitely the defining figure of the 4T, like FDR was for the U.S., Churchill for Britain, Stalin for the USSR, and Hitler for Germany during WWII. Or a little more recently, like the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Suharto in Indonesia, Augusto Pinochet in Chile, and (arguably) Boris Yeltsin in Russia were for all of those 4Ts.
Last edited by 1990; 02-20-2007 at 03:28 PM.
Dear Nathaniel,
This is a very good analysis. You and Matt are really coming to
understand generational theory.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
You know, it's funny you say that, people compliment me on that ALL the time.
On a serious note, thank you. And I'm putting Guinea into 2T. And I sure wish I could figure out Nepal.
But as long as I'm (we're?) looking at Africa, anyone want to finish the West African coast by hitting Ghana, Togo, Senegal, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau?
Without delving too deeply, I have a hit that there is sort of a counterclockwise pattern in West Africa, at least along the coast. Note that Mauritania and Guinea are 2T, then Sierra Leone and Liberia are 1T, then Cote d'Ivoire is 4T, then Benin and Nigeria are 2T. This would seem to suggest that Gambia, Senegal, and Guinea-Bissau are all 2T, and that Ghana and Togo are somewhere "ahead of" Benin's 2T, but "behind" Cote d'Ivoire's 4T. If things were so simple...
Research needed.
Generational Theory?
I must say I find it curious that you folks can embark upon an ambitious project of dividing the world map into a variety of colors based on what turning they are supposedly in without, page after page, ever mentioning generations. I see no effort to come to grips with whichever generational constellations are producing the turnings in any of the places you are so assiduously categorizing. Remember, without generations, there are no turnings. I find your efforts, admirable as they may be, rather hollow, and must remain so until generations are added. You are guessing at one half the picture based on a dubious conflict theory.
Pax,
Dave Krein '42
"The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on; nor all your Piety nor Wit shall lure it back to cancel half a line, Nor all your Tears wash out a word of it." - Omar Khayyam.
It's okay David. GD is not supposed to be based on generations, it's based on a war cycle and the whims and ego of John Xenakis. But don't worry, it's an "improvement" over S&H's theory.
Oh, and this is "his" thread. It's rude to actually mention real "objections" here, regardless of the thread's name.
All is well.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
This is for both Dave Krein and Zarathustra:
Decide whatever you want about GD and Xenakis. I'm not here to defend or attack what he does with his website. This map project, however, was my idea originally, and while the idea "hit me" after reading Xenakis' postings on GD, it's not at all a codification of Xenakis' work. If you bother to actually look at the map and/or read what I am saying, you may notice that I have points of disagreement with GD and Xenakis. I still have Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe in 1T blue. Likewise I have Morocco in 3T orange. These are my opinions, not Xenakis'.
And believe it or not, my map is based more on basic S&H principles than on GD. My map is not centered around crisis wars, per se. I'm simply looking for a decent, and immediately comprehensible, system for understanding "where a country is at". I am not looking to prove some agenda. Not at all. I'm trying to accomplish something rather unprecedented around these parts -- at least, I'd never come across something like it when I started. And most of the influence on my decisions to color-code a country comes straight out of S&H's work:
Country A is experiencing massive protests. If they are mostly youth-led and seem to be a rebuke of a post-crisis system, that suggests 2T. If they are more an uprising of the oppressed, that suggests 4T.
Country B just completed a war. But was it a massively realigning war, or an "also-fought" like the Korean War?
Nationalism and conformity seem to be up in Country C. Have they been up for a while (1T), or are they just starting to rise after being low (4T)?
I don't expect the map to be perfect; indeed, I alter it frequently and probably will for some time. But it's an attempt. And if you consider my efforts misplaced, perhaps you could make some constructive and specific suggestions. See, your note that we are not mentioning generations rings "hollow" to me. Aren't generations and turnings one and the same? You can't have a 4T without Prophet leaders, Nomad parents, Hero youth, and Artist babies. etc. etc. etc. I don't get why you consider generations to be a separate focus from turnings.
Dear David,
You're really doing a disservice to Matt and Nathaniel. During the
last six months, these two high school students have put hundreds of
hours of work into their maps. For example, they've done quite a bit
of work analyzing countries in Africa and South America, where little
or no generational analysis has been done in the past.
It's nice to have information about the full generational
constellation when it's available, but not everything is 19th century
England. Many times we have only sparse information, not a full
collection of detailed diaries and histories for each country in each
era.
And when we have sparse information, we have to be like archeologists
who determine as much as they can from a few bones and broken urns.
We have to be like detectives, and say "These people are acting like
Prophets," or "Government spending in this era is profligate that it
appears to be an Unraveling era."
The more information you have, the better your analysis. As I've
explained to you before, we're using exactly the same methodology as
Strauss and Howe. If we have 100 histories available, then we have
to read 100 histories. If we have one history available, then we
read that one. If we have no histories available, then we look
around for whatever markers we can find. As I said, we have to be
archeologists.
We have one advantage that S&H never had -- the internet. We can
usually find something out about any country in any era without
leaving our computers. England is the easiest, of course, since they
produced lots of writings, all in English. Other countries have
little or no literature, or what they have isn't in English.
By the way, this points to the next technological advance useful to
generational research -- the advent of accurate automated language
translation. It should be available within a few years, and then
we'll have a wealth of additional literature available for all
countries on earth. Once that's available, then it will be possible
to achieve my own personal dream -- a "world model" that encodes every
country and ethnic group on earth, and the generational timeline for
each one. That will be the culmination of Strauss and Howe's work.
We don't have the "world model" yet. But we have Matt's and
Nathaniel's maps, which are major advances on anything that's been
available so far. Their maps are real achievements, and you ought to
spend some time studying them.
Look, David, instead of just criticizing, why don't you contribute
something? Do you know anything about Nepal's history, or about the
history of the other countries that Nathaniel mentioned in his last
posting? If you do, any contribution will be appreciated.
Incidentally, it isn't surprising that there's still so much work
left to do on Africa. Remember that Africa is HUGE -- it equals the
size of the United States PLUS Alaska PLUS China PLUS Europe, and
there's still a little left over for New Zealand. So Africa is about
1/3 as big as the rest of the world, so no wonder there's so much
work to do on it. If you know the history of any of these African
countries than please share it.
No one's taking any short cuts here. This is all solid, hard work,
and there's a hell of a lot more to be done.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
John,
That was perfectly said, all of it.
And now the irony: I just posted an updated version of the map, with 1T and 2T in lighter colors (to reflect the optimistic tone of the 1T and euphoric tone of the 2T versus the pessimism of the 3T and urgency of the 4T).
http://generationaldynamics.com/gdgr...rca%202015.GIF
Your assistance since October has been very appreciated. Thank you so much.
The Generational Dynamics web site was down for several hours on
Tuesday evening, February 20, 2007.
In addition, all e-mail messages sent to me (at any e-mail address)
from 6 p.m. ET Tuesday to 8 a.m. ET Wednesday apparently have been
lost.
Please re-send any e-mail messages sent during that time.
The outage was caused by the web site hosting company, "Web.com,"
which changed its name from Interland in March 2006. Even Web.com's
own sales web site was down.
Ironically, "Web.com" just won a reliability reward for January,
2007.
http://news.netcraft.com/archives/20...uary_2007.html
Which reminds me of that old saying: It's nice what you did for me in
the past, but what have you done for me lately?
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
I'd like a clarification of some of the assignments on the Map.
1) The Arabian peninsula is shown in RED, indicating a current 4T. I'm not sure this is at all correct. If Arabia had gone 4T, wouldn't we already see assaults on the Saudi state and jihadists pouring into Iraq in much larger numbers?
Arabia's last crisis war was the consolidation of the Saudi state in the wake of WWI (1920's). Was Arabia delayed, or was there a conflict I didn't hear about?
2) Lebanon is 1T; only the agitation of Syria and Iran is preventing Lebanon from making a peace treaty with Israel and rebuilding. But Syria didn't actually go through that conflict (though it was a player in it). What conflict did Syria experience to make this a 1T for them?
3) What say you to the idea that the massive loss of life in the Great Patriotic War (Russia's WWII experience) caused an Anomaly for the same reasons as the Civil War Anomaly?
I have a much more in depth critique of the Mexican turning system, but it will have to wait until I can develop it in full. Suffice it to say that while Mexico has turnings, and they follow a four-stroke cycle, I am not sure they match the classical S&H or Xenakis turning descriptions. These differences seem to stem from the supression of the Church as a force in public life during the Reform period (a classical 4T, 1857-1877).
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"
What they said.
As 1990 pointed out, turnings go hand in hand with generations, and with such limited information, I rarely focus on generational characteristics. The information is available, but it would take too much time. So right now, I have to go with what I see. So you are right that the picture cannot be complete.
Of course, generations aren't necessary to get an idea of what turning some countries are in. When researching, I largely focus on the crisis and the awakening (and to a lesser extent the high), since these are the two turnings that have the most obvious distinguishing characteristics.
I can't speak for 1990, but what I do is look at brief histories of the past 100-150 years, which includes a full saeculum. I identify possible crises, then awakenings, and try and put them into the S&H context so they tell a little story. Generations follow turnings, and turnings follow generations, so I make many assumptions about the generations. So, for example, if Country A has what appears to be an awakening (as defined by S&H and others) from about 1931 to 1950 and a crisis beginning in 1974, climaxing in 1981 and ending 1983, I go ahead and assume that the country is currently in another awakening, which should be supported by current events.
It's true that I can not claim absolute certainty of most countries since I don't have the information to get a complete picture of the history. However, by applying the accepted criteria for turning identification, I believe 1990, John, Odin, and I (and others who have voiced their opinions) have created a useful visual representation of the state of the world.
1) This has always bugged me. But I simply cannot find a 4T in the '80s or '90s. It seems that the Arabian peninsula has had an expanded saeculum, possibly due to merging timelines. (WWII seemed to merge some previously-separate timelines into the WWII crisis timeline).
2) Lebanon can be classified either as late 1T or early 2T. I say early 2T due to the turbulence there right now, and certainly that isn't a shocking claim since it has been almost 17 years since the end of the civil war. I think Lebanon was clearly 1T during the '90s - as a child, I was always hearing how Lebanon had "cleaned up its act" or whatever.
Oh, and as far as Syria, my position is that Syria got "caught up" in the Lebanese Civil War, and thus was jointly involved. There is some support for this theory, especially considering some of the more violent moments in Syria during the '70s. However you slice it, the two appear to be on the same timeline.
3) Don't know. To me, it looks like Russia's saeculum wasn't upset or "messed up" at all. In fact, it looks textbook: crisis in the 1910s (Revolution), awakening in the 1950s (Khruschev's reforms, which led to his falling out of favor with the old guard), crisis in the 1990s (Soviet collapse, regional wars, and economic disaster).
As far as Mexico, my current line of thinking is that WWII merged Mexico into the American timeline. While the Mexican Revolution in the 1910s was clearly a crisis, WWII and the Depression had enough of an impact to prolong the bloodshed from the revolution into the '40s, according to several sources. Delving further, I discovered that Mexico had its last 2T exactly when we did, and in a remarkably similar fashion. So it would seem to me that Mexico was drawn into the US timeline (also my explanation for Panama) during the '30s and '40s.
Absolutely. I agree with all of this. Thank you for articulating this so well.
Whoops, 1990 beat me to it.
I am not terribly familiar with Saudi Arabia and I'm sure John will elaborate on this but an 80 year mid-cycle period isn't terribly overlong. I don't think history supports the rigidity of the 80 year cycle that some S&H followers believe in.
Of course, we can always speculate why Saudi Arabia hasn't been pulled into a "real crisis." However, they are deep into the 4T and should be showing that.
It's certainly possible, but unlikely. The generational structure would have to be changed. Since a disproportional number of artists were eliminated, I would expect a sooner crisis, not a later one. That obviously didn't happen so the other possibility is that they were reset to a 1T, but that seems even more unlikely and there isn't much evidence to support this assertion.3) What say you to the idea that the massive loss of life in the Great Patriotic War (Russia's WWII experience) caused an Anomaly for the same reasons as the Civil War Anomaly?
The most likely possibility is that the horrors of World War Two may have helped to delay the next crisis because so many people were scarred by the war.
Nonsense. We're all humans here.I have a much more in depth critique of the Mexican turning system, but it will have to wait until I can develop it in full. Suffice it to say that while Mexico has turnings, and they follow a four-stroke cycle, I am not sure they match the classical S&H or Xenakis turning descriptions. These differences seem to stem from the supression of the Church as a force in public life during the Reform period (a classical 4T, 1857-1877).
If the cycle remains intact for Africa and the Middle East then there is no reason it wouldn't be intact for Mexico. Different cultures and different history can mean plenty of different things but TFT theory transcends them all. I'd like to see your reasoning.
Last edited by Matt1989; 02-21-2007 at 02:50 PM.
Ehhhhhhhhhhh, I don't buy this. Depressions and recessions come and go, but I might give your assertion some thought had the Depression occured in 1922. It didn't, and the crisis was well over by 1929. I find clear indications of a 2T in Mexico in the 1940's, probably ending in 1968 with a Tiananmen square type event (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tlatelolco_massacre). Can I see your information for a ~1960-1980 awakening?
As for Panama, they are more influenced by Colombia than the U.S., and like Venezuela, I can't decide if they are 3T or very late 4T (5T).
I wish I could remember where I got the idea that Mexico's awakening was on course with ours. Will look for it...
Anyway, the Tlatelolco massacre (damn those Amerindian names!) does sound Tiananmen-esque. So that would suggest that Mexico followed a simple 1910s crisis timeline until very recently. Maybe NAFTA helped prolong the unraveling? Or something?
I have Venezuela in 3T due to the appearance of a 4T in the '40s and '50s. Boy, if Panama is on that timeline I must have really missed something. Is there support for a crisis in Panama sometime after WWII and before the '60s?
BTW, I don't mean to change the subject, but I just did a quick Wikipedia on the Nepalese Civil War, and it appears the casualty count was about 13,000. The country has more than 28 million people. While I wouldn't propose going by casualty count to determine whether a war was a crisis war or not, that means that less than 0.5% of the population was killed during those 10 years. For a civil war, that seems unusually small. Also it appears that the "Maoist rebels" were relatively weak in actual popular support.
I still need to know more about this, but Nepal's civil war doesn't seem to fit a traditional 4T definition. When I think of a 4T civil war, I think of two energetic, determined forces waging genocide on each other. In fact, Nepal's war sounds much more like either a 2T or a 3T. Thus Nepal either just entered 3T, or just entered 4T.
Thoughts?
One possibility is that seeing the U.S. and European awakenings continue following the 1968 climax, some Mexican students tried to prolong their awakening, so I wouldn't be surprised to see awakening events continue throughout the 70s.
What 4T? Do you mean Colombia (La Volencia)? I don't see much evidence of a spill into Venezuela, so that's why my map has Venezuela (and Panama) in grey.I have Venezuela in 3T due to the appearance of a 4T in the '40s and '50s. Boy, if Panama is on that timeline I must have really missed something. Is there support for a crisis in Panama sometime after WWII and before the '60s?
Yeah, I got the same feeling reading that. I can't be sure though.BTW, I don't mean to change the subject, but I just did a quick Wikipedia on the Nepalese Civil War, and it appears the casualty count was about 13,000. The country has more than 28 million people. While I wouldn't propose going by casualty count to determine whether a war was a crisis war or not, that means that less than 0.5% of the population was killed during those 10 years. For a civil war, that seems unusually small. Also it appears that the "Maoist rebels" were relatively weak in actual popular support.
I still need to know more about this, but Nepal's civil war doesn't seem to fit a traditional 4T definition. When I think of a 4T civil war, I think of two energetic, determined forces waging genocide on each other. In fact, Nepal's war sounds much more like either a 2T or a 3T. Thus Nepal either just entered 3T, or just entered 4T.
Thoughts?
