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Thread: Objections to Generational Dynamics - Page 84







Post#2076 at 03-04-2007 10:43 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Yes, Africa is diverging more and more, unlike most of the world. The domination of the Soviet Union over Eastern Europe and Central Asia put everything east of Austria and north of the Caspian on the same timeline. Mexico's 4T delay means that all of North America is now on the same timeline as all of Western Europe (minus Ireland, which may itself be absorbed next saeculum). Most of Latin America is on the same timeline, as is most of East Asia, and the 4T delay in the Arabian peninsula means the Middle East only has two timelines now.

But Africa is diverging, giving the false appearance of a never-ending series of crises in that continent (which is really only due to the diversity of timelines). As soon as Sierra Leone, Rwanda, and the Congo recover from civil wars, here comes Cote d'Ivoire and Central Africa. (Compare to, say, Western Europe, which has gone wholly without a 4T since WWII)

So yeah, that's interesting.
Yeah, I have no idea why. Well, most of the conflicts seem to be ethnic-related civil wars, not two countries fighting against each other with nationalist sentiments, so convergence is halted. But why civil wars? I haven't a clue.
Last edited by Matt1989; 03-05-2007 at 10:05 AM.







Post#2077 at 03-05-2007 05:21 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
The domination of the Soviet Union over Eastern Europe and Central Asia put everything east of Austria and north of the Caspian on the same timeline.
I don't think the Cold War affected the saeculum of Eastern Europe. Pretty much the entire West minus the Baltic states, Slovenia, Croatia, and possibly Hungary, seem to be on the same timeline.
Last edited by Odin; 03-05-2007 at 05:24 PM.
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Post#2078 at 03-05-2007 05:42 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
I don't think the Cold War affected the saeculum of Eastern Europe. Pretty much the entire West minus the Baltic states, Slovenia, Croatia, and possibly Hungary, seem to be on the same timeline.
This goes along with what I was saying earlier.







Post#2079 at 03-05-2007 05:54 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
I see your point, Purple-state. I find strong evidence of a 4T during the Japanese occupation in WWII, and a 2T during the '70s.
More information is needed, but I agree with this. What is possible is that the island of Bougainville is on a different timeline than PNG, but that's going to be hard to figure out. Anyway, this is bizarre.

http://www.onwar.com/aced/data/papa/png1988.htm







Post#2080 at 03-05-2007 06:09 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
My original analysis stands. Why didn't Mali react to the Tuareg Rebellion with 4T energy? No clue. Why didn't the Tuareg Rebellion explode into something that engulfed the entire Tuareg population (and therefore Niger and Mali)? No clue. Things just turn out a certain way, and by chance, disaster was averted. So, without any crisis during the 1990's, both Niger and Mali are deep into 4T-land.
The only possible conclusion I can take away from this is that the Tuaregs are on a different timeline than other ethnic groups in the Niger/Mali/Algeria area and their crisis ended in 1917 with French pacification, which would make a 1950's-1960's awakening not out of the question.

This still doesn't solve the Mali problem. I'll need to look for an awakening (1940's?). Unfortunately, information is extremely limited so this will take some time.
Last edited by Matt1989; 03-05-2007 at 06:13 PM.







Post#2081 at 03-05-2007 06:14 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Nathaniel,

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
> I would love to hit Papua New Guinea, but the "island countries"
> (Pacific and Caribbean) are by far the hardest to figure out, I
> have found. What makes you think PNG is on the Australia
> timeline?
This is a very interesting observation. Why would it be true
theoretically?

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#2082 at 03-05-2007 07:11 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Nathaniel,



This is a very interesting observation. Why would it be true
theoretically?

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Not sure. Sparse population? Endless colonization? Physical isolation?
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Post#2083 at 03-05-2007 11:00 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Not sure. Sparse population? Endless colonization? Physical isolation?
Hmmm... I've found evidence for the cycle in Indian tribes with a few thousand people, and PNG has a population of 14,000,000 if I recall. But you're right, I can't find a real candidate for a crisis either.

Nor can I pinpoint a cycle for Ireland.

Or Kansas...

But I assume they have just merged with the surrounding area. However, countries like Cuba have a clear timeline. We'll just have to give them time.







Post#2084 at 03-06-2007 01:11 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Hmmm... I've found evidence for the cycle in Indian tribes with a few thousand people, and PNG has a population of 14,000,000 if I recall. But you're right, I can't find a real candidate for a crisis either.

Nor can I pinpoint a cycle for Ireland.

Or Kansas...

But I assume they have just merged with the surrounding area. However, countries like Cuba have a clear timeline. We'll just have to give them time.
Ireland I have in 1T. The War for Independence was in the 1910s-20s, and then, on cue, The Troubles were at their worst from the mid 1970s through 1998. At the same time, Ireland was experiencing grand reforms of the then-desolate economy, and massive social liberalization of restrictive laws. I have visited Ireland (Dublin and surrounding areas), and I get the strong sense that this is a country resurgent from desperation. The Troubles qualify as a crisis war, and while officially they stretched for a long time, they really intensified in the 1970s and climaxed in 1998 with the Good Friday Agreement. Also you really have to be familiar with Ireland's massive reforms during the 1980s and '90s.

The film The Commitments is about a group of working-class Dubliners during the economically barren 1980s. It is informative, at least in an oblique sense, about Ireland's last 4T.
Last edited by 1990; 03-06-2007 at 01:13 AM.
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Post#2085 at 03-06-2007 10:11 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Ireland I have in 1T. The War for Independence was in the 1910s-20s, and then, on cue, The Troubles were at their worst from the mid 1970s through 1998. At the same time, Ireland was experiencing grand reforms of the then-desolate economy, and massive social liberalization of restrictive laws. I have visited Ireland (Dublin and surrounding areas), and I get the strong sense that this is a country resurgent from desperation. The Troubles qualify as a crisis war, and while officially they stretched for a long time, they really intensified in the 1970s and climaxed in 1998 with the Good Friday Agreement. Also you really have to be familiar with Ireland's massive reforms during the 1980s and '90s.

The film The Commitments is about a group of working-class Dubliners during the economically barren 1980s. It is informative, at least in an oblique sense, about Ireland's last 4T.
I have not seen that film but I have seen Billy Elliot?

Err. The War of Independence does not strike me as 4T, nor do the Troubles. I'd argue that they were 2Ts. With that being said, I haven't looked much into Ireland since there was no reason for me to believe that they were different from the rest of Western Europe. Find a timeline for Liechtenstein and I'll look into Ireland.







Post#2086 at 03-07-2007 10:55 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Moving On

Well, now that I'm 75% sure that Mali is 4T (which isn't very good, since the possibility is still open for an aborted crisis war) and that Madagascar and PNG are settled, where do we go from here?







Post#2087 at 03-07-2007 11:18 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Well, now that I'm 75% sure that Mali is 4T (which isn't very good, since the possibility is still open for an aborted crisis war) and that Madagascar and PNG are settled, where do we go from here?
There is still plenty left in Africa. Even if Niger and Mali are totally ignored, there is the remainder of West Africa: Burkina Faso, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, Togo, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon. Then islands like Sao Tome & Principe, Seychelles, and Comoros. Then all three Guianas are left in Latin America, along with the entire Caribbean save Cuba and Haiti. Plus the South Pacific.

So...yeah...I'm gonna say we stick with Africa for now.
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Post#2088 at 03-11-2007 01:44 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
There is still plenty left in Africa. Even if Niger and Mali are totally ignored, there is the remainder of West Africa: Burkina Faso, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, Togo, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon. Then islands like Sao Tome & Principe, Seychelles, and Comoros. Then all three Guianas are left in Latin America, along with the entire Caribbean save Cuba and Haiti. Plus the South Pacific.

So...yeah...I'm gonna say we stick with Africa for now.
Well, what do you think?







Post#2089 at 03-11-2007 01:52 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Well, what do you think?
I think I've been crazy busy and I need to set aside an afternoon for some research on this!
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Post#2090 at 03-11-2007 09:36 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
I think I've been crazy busy and I need to set aside an afternoon for some research on this!
Sounds good. Throw out some histories and we'll analyze them. I think it works best when we're working on the same countries together.







Post#2091 at 03-12-2007 06:09 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Okay, step by step here. Since Ghana looks likely to be tough, how's about Togo? A nice small country to get us back into the process.

Superficially, I notice that most major political events in Togo seem to be remarkably predictable in timing: 1910s (French and British take administrative control from Germans), 1950s (independence), 1990s (student riots and push for democracy - Awakening, anyone?).

Sayeth Wikipedia:
"On August 8, 1914, French and British forces invaded Togoland and the German forces there surrendered on August 26. In 1916, Togoland was divided into French and British administrative zones. ...

By statute in 1955, French Togoland became an autonomous republic within the French union, although it retained its UN trusteeship status. A legislative assembly elected by universal adult suffrage had considerable power over internal affairs, with an elected executive body headed by a prime minister responsible to the legislature. These changes were embodied in a constitution approved in a 1956 referendum. ... On April 27, 1960, in a smooth transition, Togo severed its constitutional ties with France, shed its UN trusteeship status, and became fully independent under a provisional constitution with Olympio as president. ...

On October 5, 1990, the trial of students who handed out antigovernment tracts sparked riots in Lomé. Antigovernment demonstrations and violent clashes with the security forces marked the months that followed. In April 1991, the government began negotiations with newly formed opposition groups and agreed to a general amnesty that permitted exiled political opponents to return to Togo. After a general strike and further demonstrations, the government and opposition signed an agreement to hold a "national forum" on June 12, 1991. ..."

Encarta's story gives a very similar portrait.

I have to say this looks amazingly consistent and straightforward. The events in the 1990s absolutely scream 2T, and the transition to independence during the 1950s and difficulties adjusting during the early '60s similarly look like a 4T. The Eyadema government in its early decades looks 1T as well, in the same vein as many oppressive 1T regimes.

Finally, Eyadema's son was inexplicably elected president in 2005. Sounds like a classic 2T-3T transition: the fervor has just completely peetered out.

This country is textbook. I'm saying 3T.
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Post#2092 at 03-12-2007 07:31 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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New map! The link is in my updated signature. The map includes everything up to tonight, including Togo and a new (nowhere near sure) assessment of Turkey.
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Post#2093 at 03-12-2007 09:03 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
New map! The link is in my updated signature. The map includes everything up to tonight, including Togo and a new (nowhere near sure) assessment of Turkey.
Spooky. Although You forgot Cote D'Ivoire and Morocco. As for Togo, I'll be checking your work .

So what is this crisis? If it is not in Togo, is it in Benin or Ghana?

A quick wiki-run-through appears that your analysis is correct, but I'll have to look more thoroughly.
Last edited by Matt1989; 03-12-2007 at 09:26 PM.







Post#2094 at 03-12-2007 11:38 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Spooky. Although You forgot Cote D'Ivoire and Morocco. As for Togo, I'll be checking your work .

So what is this crisis? If it is not in Togo, is it in Benin or Ghana?

A quick wiki-run-through appears that your analysis is correct, but I'll have to look more thoroughly.
The Cote d'Ivoire Crisis seems to be isolated to Cote d'Ivoire. This might be due to its isolated history, the sole former French colony between British (Liberia/Sierra Leone and Ghana) colonies. Cote d'Ivoire appears to have been affected by WWII in a 4T manner, according to the internet sources, as much as, say, India, Somalia, or Madagascar. So Cote d'Ivoire has a history of political isolation in West Africa. In this case there is a clear counterclockwise pattern to the turnings in West Africa, with Guinea in 2T, Liberia and Sierra Leone in 1T, Cote d'Ivoire in 4T, Togo (and Ghana?) in 3T, then Benin and Nigeria in 2T again.

What were you saying about Morocco? I believe it is colored in orange on my map. (Actually, I've never been 100% sure about the 3T assignment)
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Post#2095 at 03-13-2007 08:55 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
The Cote d'Ivoire Crisis seems to be isolated to Cote d'Ivoire. This might be due to its isolated history, the sole former French colony between British (Liberia/Sierra Leone and Ghana) colonies. Cote d'Ivoire appears to have been affected by WWII in a 4T manner, according to the internet sources, as much as, say, India, Somalia, or Madagascar. So Cote d'Ivoire has a history of political isolation in West Africa. In this case there is a clear counterclockwise pattern to the turnings in West Africa, with Guinea in 2T, Liberia and Sierra Leone in 1T, Cote d'Ivoire in 4T, Togo (and Ghana?) in 3T, then Benin and Nigeria in 2T again.

What were you saying about Morocco? I believe it is colored in orange on my map. (Actually, I've never been 100% sure about the 3T assignment)
Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I was talking about Morocco and Cote D'Ivoire being in 5th turnings. Cote D'Ivoire's last crisis ended in 1915. Morocco's crisis ended in 1926.

Also, WWII wasn't the crisis for Madagascar. Their 1947-1948 revolt was. What is your analysis of Benin?







Post#2096 at 03-13-2007 09:25 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I was talking about Morocco and Cote D'Ivoire being in 5th turnings. Cote D'Ivoire's last crisis ended in 1915. Morocco's crisis ended in 1926.

Also, WWII wasn't the crisis for Madagascar. Their 1947-1948 revolt was. What is your analysis of Benin?
Cote d'Ivoire's 4T ended in 1915? Hmm...I don't see that date listed anywhere. And more importantly, according to both Wiki and Encarta WWII was a period of major political reforms (leading to some violence between Vichy French forces and the African-led movement of Felix Houphouet-Boigny). The 1970s sound pure 2T as well. Read this from Encarta:

"Côte d’Ivoire enjoyed political stability and great economic growth during the 1960s and 1970s, despite occasional challenges to the generally conservative, business-oriented outlook of Houphouët-Boigny by students and members of the armed forces. An alleged conspiracy by army officers to stage a coup was thwarted in 1973; an attempt on the president’s life was made in 1980; and student unrest in early 1982 caused a temporary closing of the University of Abidjan."

Does this not sound like a government suppressing a 2T? Also, read how the 1990s sound 3T:

"
In 1994 Bédié oversaw the adoption of new electoral laws requiring candidates for public office to be of direct Ivorian descent, meaning that the candidate and both of his or her parents had to have been born in Côte d’Ivoire. This law was widely seen as a maneuver to prevent Bédié’s principal rival, Muslim northerner Alassane Ouattara of the newly formed RDR, from running against him in the 1995 presidential elections. The maneuver underscored a growing national schism between the mostly Christian south and the largely Muslim north. Bédié, a Christian, increasingly exploited anti-Muslim sentiment in the south for political advantage, often referring to northerners as “foreigners.” Objecting to the new electoral restrictions, opposition parties boycotted the October 1995 elections, and Bédié was reelected."

I don't know about you, but these trends (growing divisions, "national schism") sound like the social fragmentation of an Unraveling.

As for Morocco, I've never been totally sure. Under your interpretation, the 1910s-20s were 4T, and thus independence in 1956 was 2T. This is logical. But, why would Morocco and Tunisia (which experienced a remarkably similar progression of political events) be on a different timeline than Algeria? It just doesn't make sense. Everybody so far agrees that the 1950s were 4T in Algeria, and since Morocco and Tunisia both gained their independence around that time, it would seem obvious that they were 4T as well.

Sayeth Encarta about the 1910s 2T or 4T:

"
The Spanish experienced greater difficulties in Spanish Morocco. Abd el-Krim, a leader of Berber tribes, organized a revolt against Spanish rule in 1921. By 1924 he had driven the Spanish forces from most of their Moroccan territory. He then turned upon the French. France and Spain agreed in 1925 to cooperate against Abd el-Krim. More than 200,000 troops under French marshal Henri Philippe Petain were used in the campaign, which suppressed the revolt in 1926. Rebels in parts of the Atlas Mountains were not fully subdued until the end of 1934, however.
Under the French regime, the whole country was finally brought under control by the central government. A system of roads, railroads, and ports, needed for economic development, was created, and a growing industrial city was built at Casablanca. An educated elite was formed from students who attended modern schools and were introduced to ideas of the 20th century. This generation of educated Moroccans set out to recover the country’s independence."


el-Krim led a revolt that was suppressed. Students became an "educated elite" who were introduced to 20th century ideas. This sure doesn't sound like a crisis war to me. And when I read about 1950s independence, I see nothing about student-led protests, demonstrations, or "movements". It looks like your run-of-the-mill new nation trying to figure itself out in a founding 4T. Then the 1990s, while relatively peaceful, sound 2T again what with the promulgation of a new constitution and political reforms.


For now Morocco still looks 3T to me. But I am hardly 100% on this. Clearly either the 1910s-20s events were Morocco's last 4T, or independence was. Nothing crisis-y occurred in the 1990s.

Oh, and finally, as for Benin, it's in 2T green. The instability, coups, and eventual lead-in to Kerekou's dictatorial regime were its last 4T in my mind.
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Post#2097 at 03-13-2007 05:27 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Cote d'Ivoire's 4T ended in 1915? Hmm...I don't see that date listed anywhere.
End of French conquest of the Ivory coast.
And more importantly, according to both Wiki and Encarta WWII was a period of major political reforms (leading to some violence between Vichy French forces and the African-led movement of Felix Houphouet-Boigny).
The nationalist-intellectual movement of WWII time, is I believe, a 2T.

The 1970s sound pure 2T as well. Read this from Encarta:

"Côte d’Ivoire enjoyed political stability and great economic growth during the 1960s and 1970s, despite occasional challenges to the generally conservative, business-oriented outlook of Houphouët-Boigny by students and members of the armed forces. An alleged conspiracy by army officers to stage a coup was thwarted in 1973; an attempt on the president’s life was made in 1980; and student unrest in early 1982 caused a temporary closing of the University of Abidjan."

Does this not sound like a government suppressing a 2T?


This is not detailed enough to determine anything. The main sentence about the 1960's and 1970's is the first one, which indicates occasional challenges, but political stability. I'll need to see a lot more indication of a 2T.

Also, read how the 1990s sound 3T:

"
In 1994 Bédié oversaw the adoption of new electoral laws requiring candidates for public office to be of direct Ivorian descent, meaning that the candidate and both of his or her parents had to have been born in Côte d’Ivoire. This law was widely seen as a maneuver to prevent Bédié’s principal rival, Muslim northerner Alassane Ouattara of the newly formed RDR, from running against him in the 1995 presidential elections. The maneuver underscored a growing national schism between the mostly Christian south and the largely Muslim north. Bédié, a Christian, increasingly exploited anti-Muslim sentiment in the south for political advantage, often referring to northerners as “foreigners.” Objecting to the new electoral restrictions, opposition parties boycotted the October 1995 elections, and Bédié was reelected."

I don't know about you, but these trends (growing divisions, "national schism") sound like the social fragmentation of an Unraveling.


This is more than social fragmentation. This is the loss of political correctness. With their heroes entering the public scene, this is not surprising. This paragraph indicates a potential civil war.

As for Morocco, I've never been totally sure. Under your interpretation, the 1910s-20s were 4T, and thus independence in 1956 was 2T. This is logical. But, why would Morocco and Tunisia (which experienced a remarkably similar progression of political events) be on a different timeline than Algeria? It just doesn't make sense. Everybody so far agrees that the 1950s were 4T in Algeria, and since Morocco and Tunisia both gained their independence around that time, it would seem obvious that they were 4T as well.
I'm confused. Morocco is on a separate timeline than Algeria for the same reason any other country is on a different timeline than its larger neighbor. Independence for colonies indicates nothing. They can come by result of direct action (which is probably 2T or 4T, where the differences are), or whenever the power decides to grant them independence (which can occur whenever they feel like giving their colony up).

Do you see violent warfare being waged against the British the same way you see it for Algeria? My map has Tunisia in 4T, but I'm not sure about that.

Sayeth Encarta about the 1910s 2T or 4T:

"
The Spanish experienced greater difficulties in Spanish Morocco. Abd el-Krim, a leader of Berber tribes, organized a revolt against Spanish rule in 1921. By 1924 he had driven the Spanish forces from most of their Moroccan territory. He then turned upon the French. France and Spain agreed in 1925 to cooperate against Abd el-Krim. More than 200,000 troops under French marshal Henri Philippe Petain were used in the campaign, which suppressed the revolt in 1926. Rebels in parts of the Atlas Mountains were not fully subdued until the end of 1934, however.


This is the Rif War. Google it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_War_%281920%29

[quote]Under the French regime, the whole country was finally brought under control by the central government. A system of roads, railroads, and ports, needed for economic development, was created, and a growing industrial city was built at Casablanca. An educated elite was formed from students who attended modern schools and were introduced to ideas of the 20th century. This generation of educated Moroccans set out to recover the country’s independence."


OK. I suppose this is after the war. Are these educated elite prophets? I'll check for 2T events in the 1950's.

John X.'s research indicates that suicide bombers come overwhelmingly from Saudi Arabia and Morocco, which he says i indicative of a 5T.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...0.i.050718pape

Oh, and finally, as for Benin, it's in 2T green. The instability, coups, and eventual lead-in to Kerekou's dictatorial regime were its last 4T in my mind.
Thanks, I'll look into it.







Post#2098 at 03-13-2007 06:06 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
End of French conquest of the Ivory coast.

The nationalist-intellectual movement of WWII time, is I believe, a 2T.

This is not detailed enough to determine anything. The main sentence about the 1960's and 1970's is the first one, which indicates occasional challenges, but political stability. I'll need to see a lot more indication of a 2T.

This is more than social fragmentation. This is the loss of political correctness. With their heroes entering the public scene, this is not surprising. This paragraph indicates a potential civil war.
Cote d'Ivoire is in civil war right now (has been since 2002 I think). Maybe the 4T started in the mid-1990s (which would have already been overdue by a turning if the last 4T ended in 1915). In that case, who knows where this country will be in 2015.

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I'm confused. Morocco is on a separate timeline than Algeria for the same reason any other country is on a different timeline than its larger neighbor. Independence for colonies indicates nothing. They can come by result of direct action (which is probably 2T or 4T, where the differences are), or whenever the power decides to grant them independence (which can occur whenever they feel like giving their colony up).

Do you see violent warfare being waged against the British the same way you see it for Algeria? My map has Tunisia in 4T, but I'm not sure about that.



This is the Rif War. Google it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_War_%281920%29

OK. I suppose this is after the war. Are these educated elite prophets? I'll check for 2T events in the 1950's.

John X.'s research indicates that suicide bombers come overwhelmingly from Saudi Arabia and Morocco, which he says i indicative of a 5T.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...0.i.050718pape



Thanks, I'll look into it.
Clearly, either Morocco is 3T or 5T. Either Independence was a 2T, or it was a 4T. Wikipedia called the lead-in to independence wrought with "violent resistance" to French forces. (Which sounded 4T to me)
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Post#2099 at 03-13-2007 07:04 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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03-13-2007, 07:04 PM #2099
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Cote d'Ivoire is in civil war right now (has been since 2002 I think). Maybe the 4T started in the mid-1990s (which would have already been overdue by a turning if the last 4T ended in 1915). In that case, who knows where this country will be in 2015.
Yeah, but it ended in 2003 and wasn't a crisis war. I don't really see a catalyst but I'm open to the possibility.

Clearly, either Morocco is 3T or 5T. Either Independence was a 2T, or it was a 4T. Wikipedia called the lead-in to independence wrought with "violent resistance" to French forces. (Which sounded 4T to me)
Yes, there was resistance, but nothing compared to Algeria. I'm positive on this one.







Post#2100 at 03-13-2007 09:22 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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03-13-2007, 09:22 PM #2100
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Yeah, but it ended in 2003 and wasn't a crisis war. I don't really see a catalyst but I'm open to the possibility.



Yes, there was resistance, but nothing compared to Algeria. I'm positive on this one.
I was not aware that the Ivorian Civil War is actually over. According to Wikipedia, you are right. There are still peace negotiations going on, though, indicating that whatever this war was (3T or 4T), the turning hasn't shifted yet. Damn, I hate not being sure. Cote d'Ivoire might just have to go back in grey.

As for Morocco, if the resistance was not 4T then it was probably 2T, and thus Morocco is 5T now. And if that's the case in Morocco, it's almost certainly the same situation in Tunisia.

What is your theory on Libya again? Just 4T, or 5T?

BTW, for what it's worth, if I ever color in Western Sahara, it should be 2T. Sounds like the 1970s was a big-time 4T in the desert.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ
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