Originally Posted by 1990

I was not aware that the Ivorian Civil War is actually over. According to Wikipedia, you are right. There are still peace negotiations going on, though, indicating that whatever this war was (3T or 4T), the turning hasn't shifted yet. Damn, I hate not being sure. Cote d'Ivoire might just have to go back in grey.

Nah. It wasn't a crisis war.

As for Morocco, if the resistance was not 4T then it was probably 2T, and thus Morocco is 5T now. And if that's the case in Morocco, it's almost certainly the same situation in Tunisia.

I'm still having trouble with your connection between Morocco and Tunisia. I thought that Tunisia was on the same timeline as Libya, but I was never really sure.

What is your theory on Libya again? Just 4T, or 5T?

I figured Libya was on the WWII timeline. Not entirely sure, but all signs point to that.

BTW, for what it's worth, if I ever color in Western Sahara, it should be 2T. Sounds like the 1970s was a big-time 4T in the desert.

You're probably right.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Nah. It wasn't a crisis war.



I'm still having trouble with your connection between Morocco and Tunisia. I thought that Tunisia was on the same timeline as Libya, but I was never really sure.



I figured Libya was on the WWII timeline. Not entirely sure, but all signs point to that.



You're probably right.

You have sold me on Morocco, I'm afraid. Well, okay, I wasn't solid before, but still...The 1910s and '20s (climaxing with the Rif War) were 4T. Independence was 2T. Dayumn, you is good, boy.

Tunisia, on further inspection, does indeed seem to have been majorly affected by WWII, probably in a 4T way. But it looks like the 4T in Tunisia ended not in 1945, but earlier (1943, with the end of fighting in Tunisia). I certainly can't tell you what the catalyst for the 4T was. (It would have to be sometime between about 1920 and 1927)

Tunisia's 1T I would date from 1943 to 1964 (in 1964, the country began a short-lived socialist era, representing a strong alteration to Bourguiba's vision). Then the 2T ended in 1987 with the overthrow of Bourguiba. (Why does every Awakening end with the visionaries either losing steam, getting deposed, or being assassinated?) So Tunisia should be nice, clean, entering 4T now, not that messy ol' 5T.

Libya on the WWII timeline...the Italian occupation started in 1911, and ended in 1947. But a mood shift from 3T to 4T might be discernable somewhere around 1928-1931 (depending on which event you pick). According to Wikipedia, 25% of Libya's population died during the Italian occupation, most of them probably during the '30s and '40s. If that's not a Crisis, what is? So then Libya has a 1T from 1947 (end of Italian occupation) until 1969 (Qadhafi's coup), which catalyzed a 2T. Because Qadhafi's government has been so secretive about events in Libya, I couldn't tell you when the 3T began.

Anyway, this theory of yours seems to fit. Morocco 5T, Tunisia 4T, Libya 4T.

Oh, and as an aside, I am putting Ghana in 3T. Independence looks sufficiently 4T and the 1990s seem downright obvious as a 2T.

Anyway, respond to my above post first.

Originally Posted by 1990

You have sold me on Morocco, I'm afraid. Well, okay, I wasn't solid before, but still...The 1910s and '20s (climaxing with the Rif War) were 4T. Independence was 2T. Dayumn, you is good, boy.

You'd make me blush if I could. I'm not entirely sure about the 1910's. However, the crisis was well under way by 1921. Either way, it doesn't matter for the map. If and when we dig deeper, we'll see. This isn't the last we've heard of Morocco.

Tunisia, on further inspection, does indeed seem to have been majorly affected by WWII, probably in a 4T way. But it looks like the 4T in Tunisia ended not in 1945, but earlier (1943, with the end of fighting in Tunisia). I certainly can't tell you what the catalyst for the 4T was. (It would have to be sometime between about 1920 and 1927)

Tunisia's 1T I would date from 1943 to 1964 (in 1964, the country began a short-lived socialist era, representing a strong alteration to Bourguiba's vision). Then the 2T ended in 1987 with the overthrow of Bourguiba. (Why does every Awakening end with the visionaries either losing steam, getting deposed, or being assassinated?) So Tunisia should be nice, clean, entering 4T now, not that messy ol' 5T.

You're probably right, but it's hard to tell.

Libya on the WWII timeline...the Italian occupation started in 1911, and ended in 1947. But a mood shift from 3T to 4T might be discernable somewhere around 1928-1931 (depending on which event you pick). According to Wikipedia, 25% of Libya's population died during the Italian occupation, most of them probably during the '30s and '40s. If that's not a Crisis, what is? So then Libya has a 1T from 1947 (end of Italian occupation) until 1969 (Qadhafi's coup), which catalyzed a 2T. Because Qadhafi's government has been so secretive about events in Libya, I couldn't tell you when the 3T began.

Yeah, but 1969 is too late. If Libya's crisis ended in 1945 (I don't see 1947; the end of occupation doesn't suit me. It is too far past the climax.), then 1969 is too late. My guess is the 2T was well under way.

Anyway, this theory of yours seems to fit. Morocco 5T, Tunisia 4T, Libya 4T.

I really only use the principles in GD. I'm not an innovator by any means (sigh), but my strengths lie in application.

Originally Posted by 1990

Oh, and as an aside, I am putting Ghana in 3T. Independence looks sufficiently 4T and the 1990s seem downright obvious as a 2T.

Anyway, respond to my above post first.

Can you explain a little more? Their previous crisis, according to my notes, was a revolt against the British ending in 1902, but I don't have anything after that. I'm certainly open.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Can you explain a little more? Their previous crisis, according to my notes, was a revolt against the British ending in 1902, but I don't have anything after that. I'm certainly open.

Well, as you yourself have said, Africa was once almost all on the same timeline (crisis on the 1890s timeline). It is diverging more and more. And while going 80-90 years without a 4T does rarely happen, going 105+ is utterly unheard of. Sometimes the 4Ts are a little subtler (like Panama's last, which climaxed in 1968 with the establishment of a military government), but they should occur before 100 years have passed.

This from Encarta is interesting:

"Conditions in Ghana worsened rapidly following the overthrow of Nkrumah. The economy was stagnant, and Ghanaians, disillusioned by the downfall of their once-revered founding father, were divided. The National Liberation Council, the cabal behind the coup, put forward a multiparty constitution and handed over power in 1969 to a democratically elected government. Kofi A. Busia, a former UP leader and one of the nation’s leading scholars, was elected prime minister. Busia’s government was economically conservative but failed to improve Ghana’s depressed economic conditions. When a drop in the price of cacao precipitated a financial crisis in 1971, his government raised prices and interest rates while devaluing the currency, causing massive inflation. In January 1972 Busia’s government was ousted by another army coup, ushering in a decade characterized by severe economic decline and acute political instability.

The leader of the 1972 coup, Colonel Ignatius K. Acheampong, banned political activity and established a ruling military council. Military control was relaxed slightly in 1974, and a civilian political affairs advisory council and an economic planning council were set up. In 1978, however, the military council forced Acheampong to resign, giving way to General Frederick W. Akuffo. Akuffo ruled for less than a year before he was overthrown by Flight Lieutenant Jerry John Rawlings. Rawlings had both Acheampong and Akuffo executed for corruption. Rawlings also arrested and executed a number of other prominent military officers on charges of compromising the image of the Ghana armed forces. In September 1979, just months after seizing power, Rawlings stepped down in favor of an elected civilian president, Hilla Limann. When economic conditions worsened, however, Limann was deposed in a second coup led by Rawlings, on December 31, 1981.


Enjoying the support of workers and the poor, Rawlings injected a populist, revolutionary spirit into Ghanaian politics. The economy went through a severe decline in the early 1980s, leading hundreds of thousands of people to leave the country, most migrating to Nigeria. In 1983 the Nigerian government forced 1 million Ghanaians to return to their home country. In the same year, Rawlings abandoned his more radical economic strategies and negotiated a structural adjustment plan with the IMF. As the economy recovered, Rawlings moved toward democratic reforms as well. A new multiparty constitution was adopted by public referendum in 1992, and Rawlings was elected president."


This period was glossed over in Wikipedia's article. In light of this information, the period after independence sure doesn't sound 1T. In fact, it sounds more intense than do the 1950s. In a way, the 1990s sound 1T. The 2001 transfer of presidential power was the first peaceful transfer in Ghana's history.

Is it possible that Ghana is heading 2T? If so, that would validate your assessment of the Turn-of-the-Century Rebellion as a crisis. It would also fill in the missing pieces, with Jerry Rawlings being the GC of the last 4T, and the relatively peaceful atmosphere in Ghana during the 1990s being 1T.

Originally Posted by 1990

Well, as you yourself have said, Africa was once almost all on the same timeline (crisis on the 1890s timeline). It is diverging more and more. And while going 80-90 years without a 4T does rarely happen, going 105+ is utterly unheard of. Sometimes the 4Ts are a little subtler (like Panama's last, which climaxed in 1968 with the establishment of a military government), but they should occur before 100 years have passed.

This from Encarta is interesting:

"Conditions in Ghana worsened rapidly following the overthrow of Nkrumah. The economy was stagnant, and Ghanaians, disillusioned by the downfall of their once-revered founding father, were divided. The National Liberation Council, the cabal behind the coup, put forward a multiparty constitution and handed over power in 1969 to a democratically elected government. Kofi A. Busia, a former UP leader and one of the nation’s leading scholars, was elected prime minister. Busia’s government was economically conservative but failed to improve Ghana’s depressed economic conditions. When a drop in the price of cacao precipitated a financial crisis in 1971, his government raised prices and interest rates while devaluing the currency, causing massive inflation. In January 1972 Busia’s government was ousted by another army coup, ushering in a decade characterized by severe economic decline and acute political instability.

The leader of the 1972 coup, Colonel Ignatius K. Acheampong, banned political activity and established a ruling military council. Military control was relaxed slightly in 1974, and a civilian political affairs advisory council and an economic planning council were set up. In 1978, however, the military council forced Acheampong to resign, giving way to General Frederick W. Akuffo. Akuffo ruled for less than a year before he was overthrown by Flight Lieutenant Jerry John Rawlings. Rawlings had both Acheampong and Akuffo executed for corruption. Rawlings also arrested and executed a number of other prominent military officers on charges of compromising the image of the Ghana armed forces. In September 1979, just months after seizing power, Rawlings stepped down in favor of an elected civilian president, Hilla Limann. When economic conditions worsened, however, Limann was deposed in a second coup led by Rawlings, on December 31, 1981.


Enjoying the support of workers and the poor, Rawlings injected a populist, revolutionary spirit into Ghanaian politics. The economy went through a severe decline in the early 1980s, leading hundreds of thousands of people to leave the country, most migrating to Nigeria. In 1983 the Nigerian government forced 1 million Ghanaians to return to their home country. In the same year, Rawlings abandoned his more radical economic strategies and negotiated a structural adjustment plan with the IMF. As the economy recovered, Rawlings moved toward democratic reforms as well. A new multiparty constitution was adopted by public referendum in 1992, and Rawlings was elected president."


This period was glossed over in Wikipedia's article. In light of this information, the period after independence sure doesn't sound 1T. In fact, it sounds more intense than do the 1950s. In a way, the 1990s sound 1T. The 2001 transfer of presidential power was the first peaceful transfer in Ghana's history.

Is it possible that Ghana is heading 2T? If so, that would validate your assessment of the Turn-of-the-Century Rebellion as a crisis. It would also fill in the missing pieces, with Jerry Rawlings being the GC of the last 4T, and the relatively peaceful atmosphere in Ghana during the 1990s being 1T.

Well I'm still not convinced about Panama.

105+ years is very rare, but I'd put money on at least *one* country currently in a mid-cycle period with that length. It has happened and I expect it to continue to happen.

What you wrote could be a 4T, but we can't be sure. In situations like this it will be necessary to:

A) Get a lot of information on that time period so we can really understand the mood of the people

or

B) Show that they entered a 1T followed by a 2T. Do not mistake this for uber-long mid-cycle periods, which may be difficult since we really don't know what 5Ts and 6Ts are like.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Well I'm still not convinced about Panama.

Yeah, it's still a bit confusing. One alternative interpretation is a 4T from about 1968-1989, with the military coup of 1968 being the start and the deposition of Noriega being the end. This would be somewhat logical as we have previously put many Latin American military regimes (especially during the 1960s-80s period) as 4Ts. Thus Panama would be entering 2T now. I really don't know if this is a stronger or weaker case than a 3T assignment.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

105+ years is very rare, but I'd put money on at least *one* country currently in a mid-cycle period with that length. It has happened and I expect it to continue to happen.

What you wrote could be a 4T, but we can't be sure. In situations like this it will be necessary to:

A) Get a lot of information on that time period so we can really understand the mood of the people

or

B) Show that they entered a 1T followed by a 2T. Do not mistake this for uber-long mid-cycle periods, which may be difficult since we really don't know what 5Ts and 6Ts are like.

I agree. More research needed. Two steps forward, one step back, it seems.

Originally Posted by 1990

I agree. More research needed. Two steps forward, one step back, it seems.

Net gain of 1 step. Let's keep moving.

Where are we? What do you think of ____?

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Net gain of 1 step. Let's keep moving.

Where are we? What do you think of ____?

I agree. I am still totally committed to this project. And really, we've made tremendous progress. I started this in late October. Now it's mid-March. It's been less than 5 months, and we've already solidified most of the world. (Including all of Eurasia)

Originally Posted by 1990

I agree. I am still totally committed to this project. And really, we've made tremendous progress. I started this in late October. Now it's mid-March. It's been less than 5 months, and we've already solidified most of the world. (Including all of Eurasia)

Definitely. I'm on vacation right now (19 days!), so we can knock off a lot more. What's next?

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Definitely. I'm on vacation right now (19 days!), so we can knock off a lot more. What's next?

Well, here's the thing...

I've put more thought into Panama, and I'm actually leaning 2T. We've put so many other Latin American countries into 2T because they had traumatic 4Ts during military rule. Panama's situation from about 1968 to 1989 sounds comparable. Also, the 1990s were relatively calm...did not have the kind of euphoric energy present in a 2T (an energy present in Venezuela and Colombia just a few years ago). So that's my thinking there.

As for new countries, I'm liking this Africa thing, unless we get some huge insight into the Guianas. I'd like to nail down Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, and ideally handle the rest of the West African coast (Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Equ. Guinea, Cameroon, Gabon) within the next couple weeks. Mali and Niger eventually need to be re-examined as well. Then it's just the islands - Sao Tome/Principe, Cape Verde, the Comoros, and the Seychelles.

So Africa should take up most of our time for a while. Something (common sense) tells me all three Guianas are on the same timeline, so once we figure out one, we'll have all three. (And I'm thinking 2T might be likely) That will finish Latin America once and for all.

And once Africa and Latin America are done, it's on to the palm trees and cruiseships. Ready to spend your 19 days in research-land?

Originally Posted by 1990

Well, here's the thing...

I've put more thought into Panama, and I'm actually leaning 2T. We've put so many other Latin American countries into 2T because they had traumatic 4Ts during military rule. Panama's situation from about 1968 to 1989 sounds comparable. Also, the 1990s were relatively calm...did not have the kind of euphoric energy present in a 2T (an energy present in Venezuela and Colombia just a few years ago). So that's my thinking there.

As for new countries, I'm liking this Africa thing, unless we get some huge insight into the Guianas. I'd like to nail down Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, and ideally handle the rest of the West African coast (Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Equ. Guinea, Cameroon, Gabon) within the next couple weeks. Mali and Niger eventually need to be re-examined as well. Then it's just the islands - Sao Tome/Principe, Cape Verde, the Comoros, and the Seychelles.

I have no idea about Panama as of yet, but I'll look again.

As for Cote d'Ivoire, I'm pretty sure they haven't had a crisis war since 1902. For one country out of ~150, this isn't so bad.

As for Ghana, I'll repeat what I wrote earlier,

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

What you wrote could be a 4T, but we can't be sure. In situations like this it will be necessary to:

A) Get a lot of information on that time period so we can really understand the mood of the people

or

B) Show that they entered a 1T followed by a 2T. Do not mistake this for uber-long mid-cycle periods, which may be difficult since we really don't know what 5Ts and 6Ts are like.

I'm really not sure if anything like this is possible at the moment.

The rest of West Africa will be difficult. When doing research a few months ago, I looked over all of those countries and was stumped.

Dear Matt,

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

> I really only use the principles in GD. I'm not an innovator by
> any means (sigh), but my strengths lie in application.

Don't underestimate what you and Nathaniel are doing. You're both
doing valuable breakthrough work, stuff that's never been done
before.

As for the abstract theoretical stuff, you simply don't yet have
enough education. By the time you get out of college, you'll have a
much better grasp of even the abstract theory.

Now, if you want to nail all this down in the form of a publishable
research paper, then I'd like to ask you to think about writing a
summary of your work for each country. The maps are great, but the
problem right now is that there's no audit trail explaining how you
got them, except for occasional random notes in this thread. Each
country summary would consist of whatever time line you have -- a
crisis war or two, an awakening era or two -- plus a 2-3 paragraph
narrative summarizing the recent generational history of the country,
plus the URLs of any sources you used. You've already done something
like this with the Indian tribes.

You wouldn't have to do this all at once -- just do one country at a
time whenever you have the chance. Post each one in this thread, and
I'll re-post it in a new "country section" of my web site. This way
I can contribute a country when I have a chance, and other people may
wish to contribute as well. This would take a few months to
complete, but would be an extremely valuable resource.

Don't say "no" right away -- think about it and talk it over between
the two of you and see what you might be able to do.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

I have no idea about Panama as of yet, but I'll look again.

As for Cote d'Ivoire, I'm pretty sure they haven't had a crisis war since 1902. For one country out of ~150, this isn't so bad.

As for Ghana, I'll repeat what I wrote earlier,



I'm really not sure if anything like this is possible at the moment.

The rest of West Africa will be difficult. When doing research a few months ago, I looked over all of those countries and was stumped.

Yes, check Panama again. I'm thinking it fits a typical Latin American 4T model: oppressive military regime, frequent instability and violence...we have considered this sort of situation as a 4T in countries from Venezuela to Brazil to Argentina. And also, in Panama's case, the timing is just right, if you think that Panama's previous crisis ended in 1903.

Cote d'Ivoire...hmm...it's possible that there has been a century without a crisis, but since I've never found that before, I have to be skeptical. It just doesn't seem like human nature for a nation to be this overdue. Cases like Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco do turn up every now and then, but those are just cases of a one-turning delay. If a country goes over 100 years, that's a two-turning delay, and I wonder if that's at all likely given the natural flow of humanity.

I'm going to shelve Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana for a little while. Clear the mind, look at them again when we've accomplished more. Let's delve deeper into some other African countries. I hear, uh, Cameroon is lovely this time of year....(researching)...

Okay, the 1950s lead-in to independence does not sound 4T. Rather, it sounds 2T, or 3T. Why do I say this? Encarta:

"After World War II ended in 1945, the mandates were made trust territories of the United Nations (UN). In the following years political ferment grew enormously in the French territory, where more than 100 parties were formed between 1948 and 1960. The campaign for independence, intermittently violent, gained steady momentum during the 1950s, until the French granted self-government in December 1958; full independence was achieved on January 1, 1960."

Intermittently violent? No 4T would be intermittent at all. Then there's this:

"When Cameroon became independent, President Ahidjo’s government was faced with a rebellion incited by the Cameroonian People’s Union, a pro-Communist party. By 1963, however, the revolt had been suppressed, and Ahidjo soon established the authority of his regime. In 1966 the six major parties merged into the National Cameroonian Union, which was declared the only legal party in the country. In 1972 Ahidjo sponsored a national referendum that changed Cameroon from a federal to a unitary state, called the United Republic of Cameroon."

While they used the word "rebellion", it was a rebellion incited by a party, not by the populace masses. This was not an uprising by the oppressed, it was an ideological skirmish, the kind present in many 2Ts and (especially) 3Ts such as Nepal's recent "civil war" (which I am now convinced was 3T).

Here's the problem, though. There's no way the 1970s could have been an ensuing 4T, because there are no events documented on Encarta between 1972 and 1980. Then the 1980s and '90s are rich with political reforms and "rising popular discontent".

So in fact maybe there is a different way to look at this. In 1919 Cameroon was split between British and French mandates for the League of Nations. Given the timing and the dramatic loss of German power worldwide, this sounds like a 4T. Then in the 1950s comes the independence struggle and "intermittent violence" (2T would be suggested given the timing). Then the 1980s-90s experience big overhauls. But are these devastating enough to be 4T? I really don't know. While I can't buy that "intermittent violence" would occur in a 4T, neither am I sure that some political reforms and "rising popular discontent" a 4T make.

So Cameroon seems like a good question mark to ponder. BTW, Wikipedia has a very limited article.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear Matt,



Don't underestimate what you and Nathaniel are doing. You're both
doing valuable breakthrough work, stuff that's never been done
before.

As for the abstract theoretical stuff, you simply don't yet have
enough education. By the time you get out of college, you'll have a
much better grasp of even the abstract theory.

Now, if you want to nail all this down in the form of a publishable
research paper, then I'd like to ask you to think about writing a
summary of your work for each country. The maps are great, but the
problem right now is that there's no audit trail explaining how you
got them, except for occasional random notes in this thread. Each
country summary would consist of whatever time line you have -- a
crisis war or two, an awakening era or two -- plus a 2-3 paragraph
narrative summarizing the recent generational history of the country,
plus the URLs of any sources you used. You've already done something
like this with the Indian tribes.

You wouldn't have to do this all at once -- just do one country at a
time whenever you have the chance. Post each one in this thread, and
I'll re-post it in a new "country section" of my web site. This way
I can contribute a country when I have a chance, and other people may
wish to contribute as well. This would take a few months to
complete, but would be an extremely valuable resource.

Don't say "no" right away -- think about it and talk it over between
the two of you and see what you might be able to do.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Say no? Why would I say no? That sounds great! I don't know how far we'll get in West Africa, so this can be started pretty soon I would hope.

Originally Posted by 1990

I hear, uh, Cameroon is lovely this time of year....(researching)...

Okay, the 1950s lead-in to independence does not sound 4T. Rather, it sounds 2T, or 3T. Why do I say this? Encarta:

"After World War II ended in 1945, the mandates were made trust territories of the United Nations (UN). In the following years political ferment grew enormously in the French territory, where more than 100 parties were formed between 1948 and 1960. The campaign for independence, intermittently violent, gained steady momentum during the 1950s, until the French granted self-government in December 1958; full independence was achieved on January 1, 1960."

Intermittently violent? No 4T would be intermittent at all.

It's so vague that it is really impossible to tell. The say that violence was growing, but I can't be anywhere near sure of anything.

Then there's this:

"

When Cameroon became independent, President Ahidjo’s government was faced with a rebellion incited by the Cameroonian People’s Union, a pro-Communist party. By 1963, however, the revolt had been suppressed, and Ahidjo soon established the authority of his regime. In 1966 the six major parties merged into the National Cameroonian Union, which was declared the only legal party in the country. In 1972 Ahidjo sponsored a national referendum that changed Cameroon from a federal to a unitary state, called the United Republic of Cameroon."

While they used the word "rebellion", it was a rebellion incited by a party, not by the populace masses. This was not an uprising by the oppressed, it was an ideological skirmish, the kind present in many 2Ts and (especially) 3Ts such as Nepal's recent "civil war" (which I am now convinced was 3T).

Well what is a party if it is not made up of the masses? We really need more information here.

Here's the problem, though. There's no way the 1970s could have been an ensuing 4T, because there are no events documented on Encarta between 1972 and 1980. Then the 1980s and '90s are rich with political reforms and "rising popular discontent".

This is typically true, but in a country where we have so little information, I'm skeptical of pretty much anything.

So in fact maybe there is a different way to look at this. In 1919 Cameroon was split between British and French mandates for the League of Nations. Given the timing and the dramatic loss of German power worldwide, this sounds like a 4T. Then in the 1950s comes the independence struggle and "intermittent violence" (2T would be suggested given the timing). Then the 1980s-90s experience big overhauls. But are these devastating enough to be 4T? I really don't know. While I can't buy that "intermittent violence" would occur in a 4T, neither am I sure that some political reforms and "rising popular discontent" a 4T make.

So Cameroon seems like a good question mark to ponder. BTW, Wikipedia has a very limited article.

Yes I'm aware. Nothing seems 4T, but since there has to be a 4T, we'll just need to look harder. Unfortunately, I'm not sure where to look.

Here is info from the state department (http://www.state.gov/www/background_...912_bgn.html):

During the late 1770s and early 1800s, the Fulani, a pastoral Islamic people of the western Sahel, conquered most of what is now northern Cameroon, subjugating or displacing its largely non-Muslim inhabitants.

There's an excellent chance that one of these conquests was 4T. The Fulani were a dominant Empire in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

Although the Portuguese arrived on Cameroon's coast in the 1500s, malaria prevented significant European settlement and conquest of the interior until the late 1870s, when large supplies of the malaria suppressant, quinine, became available.

A 4T possibility.

In 1955, the outlawed Union of Cameroonian Peoples (UPC), based largely among the Bamileke and Bassa ethnic groups, began an armed struggle for independence in French Cameroon. This rebellion continued, with diminishing intensity, even after independence. Estimates of death from this conflict vary from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands.

French Cameroon achieved independence in 1960 as the Republic of Cameroon. The following year the largely Muslim northern two-thirds of British Cameroon voted to join Nigeria; the largely Christian southern third voted to join with the Republic of Cameroon to form the Federal Republic of Cameroon. The formerly French and British regions each maintained substantial autonomy. Ahmadou Ahidjo, a French-educated Fulani, was chosen president of the federation in 1961. Ahidjo, relying on a pervasive internal security apparatus, outlawed all political parties but his own in 1966. He successfully suppressed the UPC rebellion, capturing the last important rebel leader in 1970.

We'll need A LOT more information, but this is a possible timeline.

****
http://courses.wcupa.edu/jones/his31...ne/t-camer.htm Timeline of Cameroon since 1960, do you see a 2T in the late 1980s and 1990s?

http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/A...n-HISTORY.html This one is pretty good.

The "timeline link" you gave (http://courses.wcupa.edu/jones/his31...ne/t-camer.htm) gives strong hints of an Independence 4T, and then a 1990s 2T. Here are the a-has:

1955 - The UPC demanded immediate and separate independence for each of the two Cameroons. When legal methods failed, the UPC launched a revolt in 1955 that resulted in extensive destruction and death. -- Extensive destruction and death? Ding-ding-ding!

1970s - Cameroon was a stable and prosperous nation, friendly with France but also careful to foster relations with other western countries ... With its own oil reserves, Cameroon was less affected by the 1970s oil crises than most African nations. -- Can you say 1T?

1984 -- Elements of the palace guard that remained loyal to Ahidjo revolted in Yaounde, but after three days, they were defeated by the army, with hundreds of deaths. -- Early 2T?

1989 -- Two outside events increased anti-government activity in Cameroon. The first was the bicentennial celebration of the French Revolution, which stimulated pro-democracy demonstrations throughout Francophone Africa. The second was the fall of Communist governments in Eastern Europe, which showed that repressive governments were vulnerable to popular opinion. -- 1989 = Cameroon's Summer of Love.

1990-1991 -- These years seem to be 1968ish, very Awakening-y.

I could definitely see a 1950s crisis timeline for Cameroon, putting it at early 3T now. It's not assured, but the evidence is there.

I find it funny how the 200 year anniversary of the French Revolution could spark a wave of anti-government protest. It seems so silly.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

I find it funny how the 200 year anniversary of the French Revolution could spark a wave of anti-government protest. It seems so silly.

That's an Awakening for you. The mood is so euphoric, so frenetic, that anything can set off a "movement".

Anyway, doesn't that sound 2T? And the revolts/rebellions/sporadic violence during the independence movement could fit as a 4T.

Originally Posted by 1990

That's an Awakening for you. The mood is so euphoric, so frenetic, that anything can set off a "movement".

Anyway, doesn't that sound 2T? And the revolts/rebellions/sporadic violence during the independence movement could fit as a 4T.

Yes. I'm just laughing at how some questions are never attempted to be answered. Massive anti-government protests on the 200th anniversary? WHY? Sorry, but anniversaries aren't the cause of mass movements. Why not the 150th or 100th year? The answer is obvious to us, but it doesn't cross the minds of most.

Yes, it all sounds 2T, but I'd like to see some more evidence.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1530762.ece

The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week.

One in four Iraqis has had a family member murdered, says the poll by Opinion Research Business. In Baghdad, the capital, one in four has had a relative kidnapped and one in three said members of their family had fled abroad. But when asked whether they preferred life under Saddam, the dictator who was executed last December, or under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, most replied that things were better for them today.

Only 27% think there is a civil war in Iraq, compared with 61% who do not, according to the survey carried out last month.

Not sure how accurate this poll was but those are some definitive numbers.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1530762.ece



Not sure how accurate this poll was but those are some definitive numbers.

In this case we're not talking about right-wing spin. Democrats don't say "oh, to have Saddam back". Not at all. We all are glad he's out of power, and most of us are glad he's dead. Likewise, I don't call the situation in Iraq a civil war, even though that's what pols on both sides of the aisle are obsessed with calling it.

If you polled Iraqis on how optimistic they are about the Maliki government in general, though, I'd bet the numbers were pretty low.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1530762.ece



Not sure how accurate this poll was but those are some definitive numbers.

Apparently, there are four seperate conflicts in Iraq.

As for the numbers, there is no way to verify the validity of such a study without knowing the methodology. Yes, getting 5000 responses in Iraq is an accomplishment but, as you may already suspect, a large number by itself does not guarentee accuracy. If we had a breakdown on the individuals in terms of are they sunni or shiite and do they consider themselves secular or sectarian, it would give us at least the chance to weight the responses as opposed to what we understand the overall population characteristics of Iraq to be.