Good job, dude. What class was this for?Originally Posted by MichaelEaston
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Good job, dude. What class was this for?
Great. I will start this thread tomorrow. I am too lazy right now to craft something.
This was a personal Senior Project for .25 credit that was to pad my resume. Do you remember our private conversation earlier? I basically talked about Generational Theory and Generational Dynamics, showed and described the map, and fielded questions. It went over well. Despite my feelings about Millies not knowing or caring about around the World around them, I got lots of positive feedback and interesting questions.
By the way, I owe you a big thank you for helping me with my map. John too, for everything.
Last edited by Matt1989; 03-23-2007 at 12:05 AM.
Sorry, maybe this will help.When people precieve that a crises, as we would call it, is over, you get America circa 1945 as S and H discribed it. Yes, there are still hangover problems from the waining crises, but people slowly come to realize that the worst is really over and a normal life, by the standanrds of the time is possible.
Ireland has suffered from "the religious question" scince the English attempted a divide and conquer strategy several hundred years ago. Specificaly, Presbeterian Scotts-Irish were granted lands, mostly in what is now Northern Ireland, setting up what would later become the current political division of the island. As an island that is not a major power, the only external threat that Ireland has faced has come from English domination.
As a result, the religious question has been central to Irish crises for a long time. The nature caused potato famine crises being a notable exception.
Ireland may, through the secularization, have began the reunification process. Only time will tell. If the protestant minority continues to feel less threatened by the catholic majority, the next Irish social moment may involve a serious, and possibly successful reunification movement.
As noted earlier, IMO, the potato famine, being so total and unique to Ireland, has put them on a timeline seperate from everyone else. They are a=roughly a turning ahead of the rest of "euro-America", including us and hence in a 1t.OK, perhaps that wasn't a proper analogy. In fact, I'm not entirely sure Ireland is in winter. They are somewhere in an area where they have to be exhibiting signs of a 4th turning thanks to their generational alignment, but without a proper catalyst. You could say the same thing about the rest of Europe.
As for western europe in general, I agree that the individual countries tend to be at or near the 3t/4t cusp. Dating back to WWII nad more recently the boom awakening that started here in America and also influenced much of western europe, they really can't be anywhere else. The "euro-American" grey champions are currently unknown but nearing maturity, and not a second too soon.
Woooot!!!
Way to go, Matt!
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
OK, I understand what you are saying.
To be honest, I have no idea what the Irish Crisis will hold. Civil War? War with England? France? I can't be sure. The traditional Irish fault line that you describe has the opportunity to change.
Regardless, the Troubles cannot be considered a Crisis War.
Personally, I think they were on a separate timeline anyways. The fact that they were a only a turning ahead easily allows for the possibility of their timeline merging with the rest of Europe, which I believe is happening. Same thing for Russia.As noted earlier, IMO, the potato famine, being so total and unique to Ireland, has put them on a timeline seperate from everyone else. They are a=roughly a turning ahead of the rest of "euro-America", including us and hence in a 1t.
I had a dream last night where I was convinced Ireland's crisis was WWII. It probably doesn't mean anything, but it sounds like a sign of addiction.As for western europe in general, I agree that the individual countries tend to be at or near the 3t/4t cusp. Dating back to WWII nad more recently the boom awakening that started here in America and also influenced much of western europe, they really can't be anywhere else. The "euro-American" grey champions are currently unknown but nearing maturity, and not a second too soon.
Maybe one way to help pin down Ireland would be to look at the generational breakdowns. For example, do the 50-somethings act like Idealists? If so, then Ireland is on a similar timeline as the US or the UK. However, if the 50-somethings act more like pragmatic Nomads, then they could well be a turning ahead of us.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
Here's the catch: I would think 50-somethings act more like pragmatic Nomads, but that Ireland is still not 1T. The generational alignment probably represents the 4T/1T cusp, but from a event-based Turning perspective, they are on the 3T/4T cusp (which is essentially a 5T).
Last edited by Matt1989; 03-23-2007 at 02:06 PM.
While Ireland debates continue in the Ireland poll thread of "Beyond America", I figure we should still try to make inroads into unassigned countries. I remain fairly confident that most of Latin America is 2T, so I'm looking at the still un-discussed African countries (before we go on to the tiny islands of the world).
Since Mali, Niger, Cote d'Ivoire, and Ghana are still mysterious to me, how about those two countries between Cameroon and the Congos? -- Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
Equatorial Guinea is very obviously either 2T or 4T, and probably the former. Encarta and Wikipedia both gloss over most E.G. history pre-1968. But then, sayeth Encarta:
"On October 12, 1968, the territory became the independent Republic of Equatorial Guinea, with Francisco Macías Nguema as president. In 1972 Macías Nguema appointed himself president for life. Extreme dictatorial and repressive policies led to the flight of an estimated 100,000 refugees to neighboring countries; at least 50,000 of those who remained were killed, and another 40,000 were sent into forced labor. In 1979 Macías Nguema was overthrown in a military coup, tried for treason, and executed. Lieutenant Colonel Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who led the coup, then became president."
Okay, this extreme violence, population displacement (100,000 refugees in a country this small? Geez), and turbulence reeks 4T to me. I see nothing about student demonstrations, religious movements, or other trademarks of an Awakening, during this ugly 1968-1979 period. Also, a 2004 coup attempt could be an early 2T sign. Would you concur, Dr. Easton?
And now Gabon (or is it The Gabon? I can never remember). This seems a lot less clear-cut. Encarta again:
"During World War II (1939-1945) Gabon was held by the Free French, and in 1946 it became an overseas territory of France. The first Gabonese government council was formed in 1957, and Léon Mba became president of the council in 1958. Also in 1958, Gabon voted to become an autonomous republic in the French Community. Mba then became prime minister. The country declared its independence on August 17, 1960, and in 1961 Mba was elected president."
The independence doesn't sound like any kind of a struggle. Gabon votes for independence, Gabon gets independence. If WWII was a Crisis for Gabon, then this calm transfer of power a turning later would make sense. Otherwise, que?
"A military coup overthrew President Mba’s government in 1964, but French troops, in accordance with a Franco-Gabonese defense agreement, intervened and restored him to power; he was reelected president in 1967. Upon Mba’s death later that year, Vice President Albert-Bernard Bongo succeeded to the presidency. Bongo, who later assumed the Islamic first name Omar, was reelected in 1973. During the mid-1970s Gabon began to loosen its ties with France and the French-speaking regional organizations. With Gabonization, the government became a partner in many foreign firms, and native Gabonese filled management positions once held by foreigners. Favorable markets for Gabonese exports, especially oil, natural gas, uranium, and manganese, contributed to rapid economic expansion during the 1970s, but the economy cooled during the following decade.
Reelected to seven-year terms in December 1979 and November 1986, President Bongo faced rising opposition as the 1990s began. Tentative steps toward a multiparty system were taken in 1990, but the newly legalized opposition parties accused the government of fraud in legislative elections held in September and October. The National Assembly enacted a new constitution in March 1991 formalizing the multiparty system. In December 1993 Bongo received 51.1 percent of the vote in the first presidential elections held under the new constitution. Opposition parties again accused the government of election fraud."
The 1990s sound like an Awakening, but that would mean a Crisis during Independence, which there is insufficient support for. Another explanation would be that the increasing strife and disenchantment with the government during the 1990s is a 3T indicator (after a 1970s 2T characterized by "Gabonization" and other societal reforms), meaning Gabon is on the colonial French timeline of a WWII 4T, and thus is heading 4T now. This is the case in other formerly French African countries like Tunisia, Chad, and the C.A.R. (and Madagascar in its own way), plus formerly Italian Libya.
So I'm strongly leaning 2T on Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon is up for debate (though there may be a case for 4T). Note that Equ. Guinea has a CLEAR 4T two turnings ago, while neither Encarta nor Wiki show an especially obvious Gabonese crisis.
Is that sarcasm I detect?
When going through my run of Western Africa, I ran across the same information you did, but there wasn't anything too conclusive. The Nguema reign might be a 4T, but can you say that with more than 60% certainty?
Personally, I'm uncomfortable with establishing a turning for a country when I don't know at least a saeculum of its history. But when a country looses a third of its population, one's eyes have to be raised.
I'll look into it but we're going to be hampered by lack of information.
And now Gabon (or is it The Gabon? I can never remember). This seems a lot less clear-cut. Encarta again:
"I opened up Word to see what my notes were for Gabon. It reads:During World War II (1939-1945) Gabon was held by the Free French, and in 1946 it became an overseas territory of France. The first Gabonese government council was formed in 1957, and Léon Mba became president of the council in 1958. Also in 1958, Gabon voted to become an autonomous republic in the French Community. Mba then became prime minister. The country declared its independence on August 17, 1960, and in 1961 Mba was elected president."
The independence doesn't sound like any kind of a struggle. Gabon votes for independence, Gabon gets independence. If WWII was a Crisis for Gabon, then this calm transfer of power a turning later would make sense. Otherwise, que?
"A military coup overthrew President Mba’s government in 1964, but French troops, in accordance with a Franco-Gabonese defense agreement, intervened and restored him to power; he was reelected president in 1967. Upon Mba’s death later that year, Vice President Albert-Bernard Bongo succeeded to the presidency. Bongo, who later assumed the Islamic first name Omar, was reelected in 1973. During the mid-1970s Gabon began to loosen its ties with France and the French-speaking regional organizations. With Gabonization, the government became a partner in many foreign firms, and native Gabonese filled management positions once held by foreigners. Favorable markets for Gabonese exports, especially oil, natural gas, uranium, and manganese, contributed to rapid economic expansion during the 1970s, but the economy cooled during the following decade.
Reelected to seven-year terms in December 1979 and November 1986, President Bongo faced rising opposition as the 1990s began. Tentative steps toward a multiparty system were taken in 1990, but the newly legalized opposition parties accused the government of fraud in legislative elections held in September and October. The National Assembly enacted a new constitution in March 1991 formalizing the multiparty system. In December 1993 Bongo received 51.1 percent of the vote in the first presidential elections held under the new constitution. Opposition parties again accused the government of election fraud."
The 1990s sound like an Awakening, but that would mean a Crisis during Independence, which there is insufficient support for. Another explanation would be that the increasing strife and disenchantment with the government during the 1990s is a 3T indicator (after a 1970s 2T characterized by "Gabonization" and other societal reforms), meaning Gabon is on the colonial French timeline of a WWII 4T, and thus is heading 4T now. This is the case in other formerly French African countries like Tunisia, Chad, and the C.A.R. (and Madagascar in its own way), plus formerly Italian Libya.
So I'm strongly leaning 2T on Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon is up for debate (though there may be a case for 4T). Note that Equ. Guinea has a CLEAR 4T two turnings ago, while neither Encarta nor Wiki show an especially obvious Gabonese crisis.
"Gabon: No clue."
At least your notes for Gabon actually said something, and maybe we can work off of them. I'll look into it. I'm pleased with Cameroon, so the rest of Middle-West Africa can be solved.
Sorry. It was meant as playful and festive self-deprecation, but unfortunately might have come off the opposite. Damn Scorpio sass always gets me.
Exactly. I would agree that one should know at least a saeculum, but in the case of Equ. Guinea, as you know, I could scarcely find anything before 1968! It's as if the entire country's history was one long blob of nothingness until that year, and then all the information is there.
And yes, any time a country loses 1/3 of its population, it strongly suggests something big. I think a strong case could be made that this huge population shift was during a 4T. What else would it have been, really? Also, failed coup attempts (as happened in 2004) can often be indicative of late 1T, lead-in to 2T, as social resistance slowly and quietly builds from the fringes into the mainstream.
I'd say 2T with...eh...70% certainty? 80% at most? It's not a slam dunk, but I don't really see other possibilities.
LOL. Yeah, Gabon deserves deeper investigation. If we were able to tackle Cameroon (and very possibly Equatorial Guinea), Gabon should be worth a little work. And just think, once Middle-West Africa is finished, we can focus EXCLUSIVELY on all those lovely countries up north full of conflicting turnings, sparse information, and extended saecula!
My latest map update:
http://selzlab.blogspot.com/2007/03/...und-world.html
I switched from having the map set at the present to it being set at 2012.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
We don't have many differences. What's your reasoning for Algeria and Egypt?
Japan and Korea?
Yeah, I was wondering about those same countries on Odin's map.
BTW, Easton, still wanna discuss Gabon etc.
1990, I've been looking for hours on these two countries. Here's what I've found:
1) On the internet, there is absolutely no mention of any relevant events before 1960 in either of the two countries. So my next step was to find a recent awakening in Equatorial Guinea.
2) There has been a rise in prostitution, delinquency, and alcoholism among the youth in EG so the government has installed an 11PM curfew. There is a brief mention of a Women's delegation coming to Cameroon to talk about women's rights in EG. I'm guessing that Cameroon's awakening (that should be coming to an end) has naturally brought about an increase in women's rights so the EG delegation would naturally seek guidance from a women's group in Cameroon. There have been many attempted coups recently and there is a certain amount of instability.
The above evidence was inconclusive.
3) As I said, there is no information on Gabon prior to its independence. However, what is certain is that there has been no crisis war since 1960.
So Gabon must either be 3T or approaching 4T now. Equatorial Guinea is likely 2T, but I can't be sure of it, especially since I have no information prior to 1960. Unless we come across something new (and I don't think I will), these countries should remain in gray.
Doh, Algeria should be late 3T, not 4T, my mistake. I consider their last crisis to go from the early 40s (WW2 in North Africa) to the early 60s (Algerian independence).
Egypt's last Crisis climaxed with the Suez Canal Crisis
I consider Japan's crisis to start in the summer of 1941 with the oil embargo and ending around 1960. Korea's seems to be similar, with the Korean War being the climax of Korea's Crisis.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Well then Egypt should be 3T as well.
I've never heard 1960 for Japan. In fact, I peg the start of the Japanese awakening in 1960, with the labor protests and widespread student riots. There is plenty of documented evidence of a Japanese awakening in the 1960s.I consider Japan's crisis to start in the summer of 1941 with the oil embargo and ending around 1960. Korea's seems to be similar, with the Korean War being the climax of Korea's Crisis.
Last edited by Matt1989; 03-25-2007 at 02:26 PM.
Equatorial Guenia
Back in the late 70's and early 80's, I remember reading about the genecide in Eq. Guenia. There was nothing euphoric about the place at that time. They were as 4t right then as anywhere on earth was. Depending on how you interpret current trends there, they have to be somewhere close to the 1t/2t cusp currently.
It is 3T right now but should be 4T by 2012, while the countries of NW Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) are a few years behind The Arabian Saeculum that Egypt is on.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Well, alright. It would be shorter than 60 years, but Egypt is linked to the surrounding countries, so for all purposes, it should be in red.
I believe I have Egypt's last crisis ending in 1952, so it should definitely be in red on my map.
The only problem I have is that this genocide was just some maniacal dictator slaughtering his own people. While dark and certainly not euphoric, this is not your standard crisis war. That is why I looked for supporting information. I didn't find any, likely due to being hampered by lack of information. If I can find anything to support them having a 4T in the 70s (such as a 2T now or a 2T in the 1940s), I'll change my mind. It will stay in gray.
Err, one more. Somalia.
Isn't rising substance abuse a key clue (in regards to the public mood and society) of an Awakening? And installation of a curfew, as happened recently in Guinea, is often indicative of an early 2T as well, with Hero-led government trying to suppress instability in any way possible.
The above evidence was inconclusive.
3) As I said, there is no information on Gabon prior to its independence. However, what is certain is that there has been no crisis war since 1960.
It's possible that independence was a Crisis for Gabon, but there is woefully insufficient information. Grey I guess.So Gabon must either be 3T or approaching 4T now. Equatorial Guinea is likely 2T, but I can't be sure of it, especially since I have no information prior to 1960. Unless we come across something new (and I don't think I will), these countries should remain in gray.
I disagree. I consider the 1952 Revolution the Regeneracy of Egypt's Crisis, not at all the Climax. The shockingly aggressive way in which Egypt fought the Suez War (thus indirectly defeating the great powers of Europe) looks like a clear sign that the 4T was far from over. Then there was the failed union with Syria, and major reforms under Nasser. I consider the climax to actually be the 1967 Six-Day War, which ended in humiliating defeat for Egypt and was the country's last war fought with the same force and passion.
I call Egypt's 4T 1948-1967, starting with the formation of Israel (which was near the end of the Israel/Palestine/Jordan 4T) and ending with the Six-Day War.
Possibly. I could interpret the information I posted anyway I wanted it, but I'll need more conclusive evidence that it is in fact the buildup to a 2T. For example, the curfew on children could be a sign of a less tolerant, 4T-approaching society. There isn't enough evidence.