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Thread: Objections to Generational Dynamics - Page 100







Post#2476 at 09-04-2007 08:56 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-04-2007, 08:56 PM #2476
Join Date
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33

John,

Bingo on the chart. That's it. The concept is that each subsequent trading day or trading period (you can search for it on a weekly and a monthly basis as well, as well as an hourly basis) is trading inside the range of the prior period, for a total of at least three and no more than four total periods, including the starting period range.

The ratio of high-lo divided by volume, compared to the prior 2 to 4 trading days, when there is a reversal in direction, here the Thursday, will show again an expression of power...lots of trading in a very tight trading range. It's been 15+ years since I looked closely at this phenomenon. It was one of two chart patterns that I learned had meaning. The other is the dynamite triangle. I've also studied every move that's been 2% and greater, prior to '92, for the then available S&P data. That's most of what I know.

I'm much pleased that you'll perl this to see what you see and then show me. I yet think this window of time is explosive, and I can tell you it is explosive typically to 3 times the length of the first, starting bar, from high to low, in total points. If the starting bar is 315, as an example, then multiply that by 3 and expect a move from the high or low of that bar equal to 945 points.

There are bulls bears and pigs. At 900 points, it's time to remove 1/2 the position and put in a stop loss at some number below that. If there is a round number near the goal, then stop out at that number or right before it.

If the market goes down, in this case, the drop will be 5 times that example number of 315. And based on the reversal, the market would in fact descend dramatically beyond the 945 points down.







Post#2477 at 09-04-2007 10:59 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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09-04-2007, 10:59 PM #2477
Join Date
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Location
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An old sig of mine used to say "The four totem animals of Wall Street are the bulls, the bears, the hogs - and the ostriches."

Not to mention that the bulls usually generate the most amount of what bulls are most famous for generating.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#2478 at 09-04-2007 11:56 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
09-04-2007, 11:56 PM #2478
Join Date
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Location
Cambridge, MA
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4,010

Dear Gaudia,

Quote Originally Posted by GaudiaRay View Post
> Bingo on the chart. That's it. The concept is that each subsequent
> trading day or trading period (you can search for it on a weekly
> and a monthly basis as well, as well as an hourly basis) is
> trading inside the range of the prior period, for a total of at
> least three and no more than four total periods, including the
> starting period range.

> The ratio of high-lo divided by volume, compared to the prior 2 to
> 4 trading days, when there is a reversal in direction, here the
> Thursday, will show again an expression of power...lots of trading
> in a very tight trading range. It's been 15+ years since I looked
> closely at this phenomenon. It was one of two chart patterns that
> I learned had meaning. The other is the dynamite triangle. I've
> also studied every move that's been 2% and greater, prior to '92,
> for the then available S&P data. That's most of what I know.

> I'm much pleased that you'll perl this to see what you see and
> then show me. I yet think this window of time is explosive, and I
> can tell you it is explosive typically to 3 times the length of
> the first, starting bar, from high to low, in total points. If the
> starting bar is 315, as an example, then multiply that by 3 and
> expect a move from the high or low of that bar equal to 945
> points.

> There are bulls bears and pigs. At 900 points, it's time to remove
> 1/2 the position and put in a stop loss at some number below that.
> If there is a round number near the goal, then stop out at that
> number or right before it.

> If the market goes down, in this case, the drop will be 5 times
> that example number of 315. And based on the reversal, the market
> would in fact descend dramatically beyond the 945 points down.
The pattern seems to occur quite often, every year or two:

Code:
    Date                 Low        High      Close
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1929-03-08   304.78 -   313.25    311.59
    Monday 1929-03-11   305.20 -   312.96    305.75
   Tuesday 1929-03-12   305.20 -   312.76    306.14
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1929-03-11   305.20 -   312.96    305.75
   Tuesday 1929-03-12   305.20 -   312.76    306.14
 Wednesday 1929-03-13   306.79 -   312.30    310.29
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1931-05-08   147.43 -   155.65    154.41
    Monday 1931-05-11   148.19 -   153.37    151.56
   Tuesday 1931-05-12   148.28 -   152.11    150.24
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1933-08-29   100.23 -   105.39    103.59
 Wednesday 1933-08-30   100.38 -   104.13    102.35
  Thursday 1933-08-31   101.48 -   103.31    102.41
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1934-10-26    92.20 -    93.86     93.01
    Monday 1934-10-29    92.37 -    93.60     92.53
   Tuesday 1934-10-30    92.59 -    93.46     93.05
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1936-11-23   177.91 -   181.78    178.62
   Tuesday 1936-11-24   178.84 -   181.51    181.11
 Wednesday 1936-11-25   179.68 -   181.49    180.78
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1937-06-14   163.73 -   168.45    165.51
   Tuesday 1937-06-15   164.69 -   168.10    167.40
 Wednesday 1937-06-16   165.49 -   167.59    165.86
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1937-07-07   176.25 -   178.88    177.74
  Thursday 1937-07-08   176.49 -   178.38    177.70
    Friday 1937-07-09   176.65 -   178.36    177.40
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1938-05-10   117.75 -   120.28    117.93
 Wednesday 1938-05-11   117.78 -   119.70    118.52
  Thursday 1938-05-12   117.88 -   119.67    118.55
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1941-08-15   124.66 -   125.97    124.90
    Monday 1941-08-18   125.20 -   125.96    125.62
   Tuesday 1941-08-19   125.20 -   125.91    125.57
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1941-09-25   125.33 -   127.71    126.38
    Friday 1941-09-26   125.55 -   126.68    125.81
    Monday 1941-09-29   125.76 -   126.54    126.05
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1942-07-09   107.60 -   109.26    108.75
    Friday 1942-07-10   107.68 -   108.99    108.66
    Monday 1942-07-13   107.79 -   108.69    108.22
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1943-03-17   128.86 -   130.22    129.49
  Thursday 1943-03-18   129.07 -   130.00    129.66
    Friday 1943-03-19   129.09 -   129.95    129.25
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1943-03-30   135.52 -   137.20    136.82
 Wednesday 1943-03-31   135.86 -   137.07    136.57
  Thursday 1943-04-01   135.94 -   137.04    136.56
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1946-04-17   206.97 -   209.36    207.93
  Thursday 1946-04-18   207.27 -   209.10    208.31
    Monday 1946-04-22   207.33 -   208.94    207.99
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1952-08-20   273.41 -   275.62    274.35
  Thursday 1952-08-21   273.43 -   275.24    274.45
    Friday 1952-08-22   273.74 -   275.24    274.43
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1952-11-19   277.78 -   281.16    280.05
  Thursday 1952-11-20   278.02 -   280.80    279.50
    Friday 1952-11-21   278.16 -   280.31    279.32
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1955-02-18   409.07 -   414.62    411.63
    Monday 1955-02-21   409.57 -   414.21    411.28
 Wednesday 1955-02-23   409.72 -   413.04    411.48
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1956-10-03   476.97 -   484.06    482.04
  Thursday 1956-10-04   478.37 -   483.98    481.24
    Friday 1956-10-05   478.86 -   483.62    482.39
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1956-11-08   483.21 -   491.32    488.72
    Friday 1956-11-09   483.57 -   490.50    485.35
    Monday 1956-11-12   483.60 -   488.91    487.05
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1959-12-08   665.07 -   679.36    675.39
 Wednesday 1959-12-09   668.76 -   678.03    671.26
  Thursday 1959-12-10   668.80 -   676.96    672.74
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1962-05-17   644.01 -   654.33    649.79
    Friday 1962-05-18   644.55 -   653.63    650.70
    Monday 1962-05-21   645.09 -   652.14    648.59
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1962-10-24   549.65 -   578.52    576.68
  Thursday 1962-10-25   562.79 -   575.84    570.86
    Friday 1962-10-26   564.88 -   573.54    569.02
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1963-07-22   684.41 -   696.16    688.74
   Tuesday 1963-07-23   685.74 -   694.83    687.84
 Wednesday 1963-07-24   685.99 -   693.41    690.88
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1968-10-24   949.34 -   967.37    956.68
    Friday 1968-10-25   950.96 -   966.81    961.28
    Monday 1968-10-28   951.45 -   966.50    957.73
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1969-02-06   939.46 -   954.07    946.67
    Friday 1969-02-07   940.39 -   954.00    947.85
   Tuesday 1969-02-11   941.94 -   954.00    948.97
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1969-02-07   940.39 -   954.00    947.85
   Tuesday 1969-02-11   941.94 -   954.00    948.97
 Wednesday 1969-02-12   942.81 -   954.00    949.09
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1970-07-23   718.44 -   737.88    732.68
    Friday 1970-07-24   722.96 -   736.58    730.22
    Monday 1970-07-27   724.53 -   735.01    730.08
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1971-03-31   898.33 -   910.98    904.37
  Thursday 1971-04-01   898.75 -   910.06    903.88
    Friday 1971-04-02   898.96 -   910.06    903.04
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1971-09-07   909.75 -   925.67    916.47
 Wednesday 1971-09-08   911.87 -   925.67    920.93
  Thursday 1971-09-09   912.38 -   925.23    915.89
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1977-01-05   974.07 -   990.69    978.06
  Thursday 1977-01-06   974.07 -   989.03    979.89
    Friday 1977-01-07   975.40 -   987.03    983.13
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1978-01-11   771.74 -   785.95    775.90
  Thursday 1978-01-12   772.78 -   785.00    778.15
    Friday 1978-01-13   773.65 -   784.04    775.73
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1979-05-31   815.14 -   827.01    822.33
    Friday 1979-06-01   817.74 -   826.14    821.21
    Monday 1979-06-04   817.83 -   825.36    821.90
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1979-10-10   826.54 -   855.03    849.32
  Thursday 1979-10-11   834.98 -   854.69    844.62
    Friday 1979-10-12   835.67 -   852.90    838.99
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1981-04-06   986.67 -  1004.59    994.24
   Tuesday 1981-04-07   987.03 -  1004.41    992.89
 Wednesday 1981-04-08   987.84 -  1000.45    993.43
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1982-12-01  1025.57 -  1055.00   1031.09
  Thursday 1982-12-02  1027.04 -  1047.37   1033.11
    Friday 1982-12-03  1027.04 -  1046.82   1031.36
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1983-05-06  1217.69 -  1244.49   1232.59
    Monday 1983-05-09  1219.04 -  1241.29   1228.23
   Tuesday 1983-05-10  1220.49 -  1240.03   1229.68
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1983-09-07  1229.27 -  1253.96   1244.11
  Thursday 1983-09-08  1232.83 -  1252.95   1246.14
    Friday 1983-09-09  1233.33 -  1252.74   1239.74
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1983-11-22  1262.91 -  1287.80   1275.81
 Wednesday 1983-11-23  1265.04 -  1284.55   1275.61
    Friday 1983-11-25  1268.80 -  1282.22   1277.44
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1988-08-02  2112.20 -  2151.85   2131.22
 Wednesday 1988-08-03  2115.40 -  2147.94   2134.07
  Thursday 1988-08-04  2117.71 -  2147.23   2126.60
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1989-06-12  2484.70 -  2528.17   2518.84
   Tuesday 1989-06-13  2484.70 -  2520.71   2503.54
 Wednesday 1989-06-14  2486.01 -  2520.71   2503.36
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1989-08-29  2704.98 -  2757.60   2726.63
 Wednesday 1989-08-30  2705.36 -  2753.61   2728.15
  Thursday 1989-08-31  2717.90 -  2744.68   2737.27
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1989-10-16  2496.93 -  2667.42   2657.38
   Tuesday 1989-10-17  2588.73 -  2665.37   2638.73
 Wednesday 1989-10-18  2610.66 -  2664.34   2643.65
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 1989-12-19  2658.70 -  2720.14   2695.61
 Wednesday 1989-12-20  2667.02 -  2719.07   2687.93
  Thursday 1989-12-21  2671.72 -  2714.16   2691.13
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1990-10-19  2453.47 -  2536.88   2520.79
    Monday 1990-10-22  2476.73 -  2535.40   2516.09
   Tuesday 1990-10-23  2480.20 -  2527.97   2494.06
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1992-09-16  3288.95 -  3353.52   3319.21
  Thursday 1992-09-17  3292.20 -  3347.04   3315.70
    Friday 1992-09-18  3297.87 -  3340.56   3327.05
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 1993-10-18  3595.92 -  3675.84   3642.31
   Tuesday 1993-10-19  3601.79 -  3669.97   3635.32
 Wednesday 1993-10-20  3611.85 -  3667.74   3645.10
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1994-03-18  3838.65 -  3911.78   3895.65
    Monday 1994-03-21  3838.65 -  3898.25   3864.85
   Tuesday 1994-03-22  3840.66 -  3896.23   3862.55
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1995-07-19  4530.26 -  4698.60   4628.87
  Thursday 1995-07-20  4578.51 -  4684.52   4641.55
    Friday 1995-07-21  4596.82 -  4676.06   4641.55
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 1997-08-01  8062.11 -  8287.65   8194.04
    Monday 1997-08-04  8097.65 -  8261.40   8198.45
   Tuesday 1997-08-05  8129.93 -  8251.88   8187.54
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 1999-04-14 10196.87 - 10692.49  10411.66
  Thursday 1999-04-15 10201.31 - 10673.90  10462.72
    Friday 1999-04-16 10299.55 - 10632.90  10493.89
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 1999-04-22 10517.85 - 10896.42  10727.18
    Friday 1999-04-23 10530.45 - 10858.34  10689.67
    Monday 1999-04-26 10540.47 - 10854.33  10718.59
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 2000-04-04 10682.72 - 11531.24  11164.84
 Wednesday 2000-04-05 10894.00 - 11326.79  11033.92
  Thursday 2000-04-06 10921.07 - 11303.83  11114.27
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 2001-06-29 10374.32 - 10729.18  10502.40
    Monday 2001-07-02 10397.20 - 10707.24  10593.72
   Tuesday 2001-07-03 10479.99 - 10648.00  10571.11
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
   Tuesday 2002-02-05  9553.96 -  9842.77   9685.43
 Wednesday 2002-02-06  9558.18 -  9801.33   9653.39
  Thursday 2002-02-07  9562.12 -  9799.67   9625.44
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Monday 2002-03-04 10313.01 - 10656.50  10586.82
   Tuesday 2002-03-05 10349.90 - 10639.96  10433.41
 Wednesday 2002-03-06 10393.84 - 10637.19  10574.29
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
 Wednesday 2005-12-21 10776.01 - 10933.70  10833.73
  Thursday 2005-12-22 10785.93 - 10928.34  10889.44
    Friday 2005-12-23 10869.98 - 10904.40  10883.27
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 2006-11-09 12039.59 - 12236.10  12103.30
    Friday 2006-11-10 12074.01 - 12173.08  12108.43
    Monday 2006-11-13 12084.89 - 12164.22  12131.88
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
  Thursday 2007-02-01 12563.85 - 12741.30  12673.68
    Friday 2007-02-02 12582.99 - 12740.65  12653.49
    Monday 2007-02-05 12630.50 - 12681.06  12661.75
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
    Friday 2007-08-17 12847.24 - 13289.70  13079.08
    Monday 2007-08-20 12938.77 - 13245.80  13121.35
   Tuesday 2007-08-21 12975.68 - 13228.57  13090.86
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#2479 at 09-05-2007 12:22 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-05-2007, 12:22 PM #2479
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John,
Eyeballing the numbers patterns you generated, I think you will see that many are not equalateral triangles. What I describe is rare.

Also, the numbers, like Aug 17, 20, 21, you post don't look like the chart pattern numbers that should be there.

I will not discount what I think because I see what I see in the August daily chart. The explosion can be down or up. If it is down, the market will drop 5 x 300+ = 1500 - 2000 points, and do it over a month or two max. Like you, I've waited an adult lifetime to see these market conditions, and I've waited 15 years+ for the dynamite triangle that I see here.

Take a look, as a chart pattern at the prior 3 to all of the price number ranges you've found. I don't agree as to the 2 prior to the August. They're not visible on the chart. And tiny changes at one side or the other, high or low, do not fit the dynamite pattern. Until I've seen otherwise, the pattern is rare.

The current chart pattern, through today, still does nothing to void or dissipate the dynamite pattern from exploding.







Post#2480 at 09-05-2007 02:47 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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09-05-2007, 02:47 PM #2480
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The dynamite triangle would generate numbers like:

120-125 - Day 1
121-124 - Day 2
122-123 - Day 3

Is this right?
Last edited by Matt1989; 09-05-2007 at 02:49 PM.







Post#2481 at 09-06-2007 12:20 AM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-06-2007, 12:20 AM #2481
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The dynamite triangle would generate numbers like:

120-125 - Day 1
121-124 - Day 2
122-123 - Day 3

Is this right?
-------------------------
First off, most of the numbers identified by John are not dynamite triangles.
The triangle looks like this:

110 - 130 - Day 1
115 - 125 - Day 2
120 - 125 - Day 3

...a perfect dynamite triangle. We just had one.
12847 - 13290 Friday, Aug 17 - Day 1
12939 - 13246 Monday, Aug 20 - Day 2
12976 - 13229 Tues, Aug 20 - Day 3

Compression, indecision. The price range to volume ratio may figure into this, but I didn't look at that aspect.

If this breaks out within a reasonable period of time (I was thinking days up to 2 weeks, but this can extend for a short while...as you can see, this tight triangle is still evidence of what's happening now in the DJIA...tight trading range), and in the market, chaos theory means to me that there will be other factors that gain prominence after the passage of enough time. I'm still willing to wait out 3 weeks and maybe even 4, as long as the market doesn't break out of the triangle's range.

It will be explosive, if the move starts this week or next. After that, I know, not just think, that the dynamite triangle will not exert the same amount of move-power.

My quick review of the numbers John posted showed I think 3 of these over the entire time period. I don't have the skillset to see what the days prior and the weeks after those 3 dynamite triangles looked like.

Also, if the DT repeats in a short window of time, it will also not have as much influence as the traders will be wise to the wind up before the pitch and thus not act explosively.







Post#2482 at 09-06-2007 12:24 AM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-06-2007, 12:24 AM #2482
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FYI, as I'm long all I can be at this moment, I can't add more, but tomorrow, Thursday, I think gold will rise another 10+ from 682+ to maybe as much as 700.

Reality takes time to penetrate through confusion and denial. It will and fear will appear again, this time and next time much more easily.

I agree with John's comparison to fall '29, but I don't expect any series of numbers to be the same unless the chart pattern is a high probability. This is a series of numbers, '29, and that's not enough for me to bet the farm.

The dynamite triangle is, though. I'm waiting, and I think tomorrow will start the retreat through the bottom of the DT.







Post#2483 at 09-06-2007 01:20 AM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-06-2007, 01:20 AM #2483
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The DJIA closed at 13305. If it goes below 13100, it will have broken its uptrend over the past 2 weeks. That will cause shorts to enter the market, and longs to leave, the day trader types. That will help get it down to 12847, and as it gets there, the daily movements will tell us if there is what John sees, a much more risk averse marketplace...which I too believe is 100% true. John's nailed it as to change in perception. We're just watching the outcome express itself as the stock market gets a store of value audit.







Post#2484 at 09-06-2007 03:21 AM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-06-2007, 03:21 AM #2484
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OT: Bird Flu Orange Flag
Island off of Sumatra in last 2 weeks experiencing mass die off of chickens. Entire island pop being given Tamiflu, free. Minimum 4 people dead, w/30+ on Sumatra in hospital, and claim of 100+ sick. Crosses all age groups, but most are 60+ and under 12. Indo claims it's typhoid fever/typhus/malaria. Worth a cautious eye over the next 1-2 weeks.

If it is H5N1, the CFR is UNKNOWN. We don't know the true pop # infected.

News updates @ www.flutrackers.com
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=34347

Also look at fluwiki.com and www.singtomeohmuse.com (forum) for additional updates.

Niman recognizes clear H5N1 symptoms in the chickens, and finds it quite strange that humans are getting sick, but it ain't BF.







Post#2485 at 09-06-2007 09:39 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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09-06-2007, 09:39 AM #2485
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Quote Originally Posted by GaudiaRay View Post
The dynamite triangle would generate numbers like:

120-125 - Day 1
121-124 - Day 2
122-123 - Day 3

Is this right?
-------------------------
First off, most of the numbers identified by John are not dynamite triangles.
The triangle looks like this:

110 - 130 - Day 1
115 - 125 - Day 2
120 - 125 - Day 3

...a perfect dynamite triangle. We just had one.
12847 - 13290 Friday, Aug 17 - Day 1
12939 - 13246 Monday, Aug 20 - Day 2
12976 - 13229 Tues, Aug 20 - Day 3
Ok.. but your lows have to be evenly spaced right?

I see a difference of 92 from the 17th to the 20th, and 37 from the 20th to the 21st.







Post#2486 at 09-06-2007 10:25 AM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-06-2007, 10:25 AM #2486
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Michael, nothing needs to be evenly spaced, but there must be a chart that looks like it is advancing into a tight point, like a flag formation, with neither side "flat" or slightly sloping. It doesn't have to be equilateral but it does need to look more like that than a right angle'd triangle. That right angled triangle is not a dynamite triangle.


As a heads up, spot gold is up to 688, but the day's not over. If it gets to 692, the next day is 700 as that's a round number. That's as far as the chart on gold over the past 3 days can inform me. I've seen many charts that look like the one through yesterday. That's an easy, high probability call as of last night.

As to what's happening in the DJIA, we are seeing an inside day, so far, again, and the reversal of 2 days ago deserves watching as it will also drive the market down enough to break the bottom of the dynamite triangle's first bar. After that, however, there must be something else to guide it.

I don't want to appear the fool and guess every move, but I used to do that for a while. It's time consuming and boring for me. So, I'm gonna bite my tongue and wait for this trading day to end before observing more; suffice it to say an inside day means yet again the same explosiveness remains in the marketplace. If the market were being manipulated, which can happen in the short term, those guys had better keep the market in this trading range of a few hundred points for at least a month. If they can do it, the "mind storm" going on now in humans will dissipate. If they can't, then John's view / hunch / belief is correct, and it will go boom.







Post#2487 at 09-06-2007 11:42 AM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
---
09-06-2007, 11:42 AM #2487
Join Date
Aug 2007
Posts
33

If this were a trading forum, it would be spot gold 692 has been hit; exit 1/2 the trade and put in 2 protective stops, one at 687 (to keep profit and avoid the turn around) and one at 684.50 because the market will then be going to close the gap. There's a breakaway gap on the US market daily chart. It must be remembered. Gaps get filled, unless they're seriously breakaway.

John's psychology point is clear; the markets are surprisingly slow to factor in the perception change that's now in the general public.

Interesting factoid. There are $350 billion in SIV's. One Goldman fund just wrote theirs down to zero (to be conservative). That's a lotta balance sheet lies and losses. Would the SIV issuers be honest and take them into their income statements? Notta chance.

I'm more emotionally interested in this event as it's revenge served cold for me. It's generational. It's just a question of whether the public can get the tails pinned on the right donkeys instead of the donkeys pinning them on the public.







Post#2488 at 09-06-2007 12:35 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
09-06-2007, 12:35 PM #2488
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Dear Gaudia,

I reran the program, and for each triple, and I computed a
"triangular factor" to capture your "flag" concept in the isosceles
(not equilateral) triangle.

(Technical details: I compute four values: (low2-low1)/close1,
(low3-low2)/close2, (high1-high2)/close1, (high2-high3)/close2. I
then take the minimum of those four values, and express it as a
percentage.)

The results are as follows:

Code:
    Date                 Low        High      Close
--------------------- --------   -------- ---------
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
    Friday 1929-03-08   304.78 -   313.25    311.59
    Monday 1929-03-11   305.20 -   312.96    305.75
   Tuesday 1929-03-12   305.20 -   312.76    306.14
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
    Monday 1929-03-11   305.20 -   312.96    305.75
   Tuesday 1929-03-12   305.20 -   312.76    306.14
 Wednesday 1929-03-13   306.79 -   312.30    310.29
****** Triangular factor:     0.0594%
    Friday 1931-05-08   147.43 -   155.65    154.41
    Monday 1931-05-11   148.19 -   153.37    151.56
   Tuesday 1931-05-12   148.28 -   152.11    150.24
****** Triangular factor:     0.1448%
   Tuesday 1933-08-29   100.23 -   105.39    103.59
 Wednesday 1933-08-30   100.38 -   104.13    102.35
  Thursday 1933-08-31   101.48 -   103.31    102.41
****** Triangular factor:     0.1513%
    Friday 1934-10-26    92.20 -    93.86     93.01
    Monday 1934-10-29    92.37 -    93.60     92.53
   Tuesday 1934-10-30    92.59 -    93.46     93.05
****** Triangular factor:     0.0110%
    Monday 1936-11-23   177.91 -   181.78    178.62
   Tuesday 1936-11-24   178.84 -   181.51    181.11
 Wednesday 1936-11-25   179.68 -   181.49    180.78
****** Triangular factor:     0.2115%
    Monday 1937-06-14   163.73 -   168.45    165.51
   Tuesday 1937-06-15   164.69 -   168.10    167.40
 Wednesday 1937-06-16   165.49 -   167.59    165.86
****** Triangular factor:     0.0113%
 Wednesday 1937-07-07   176.25 -   178.88    177.74
  Thursday 1937-07-08   176.49 -   178.38    177.70
    Friday 1937-07-09   176.65 -   178.36    177.40
****** Triangular factor:     0.0253%
   Tuesday 1938-05-10   117.75 -   120.28    117.93
 Wednesday 1938-05-11   117.78 -   119.70    118.52
  Thursday 1938-05-12   117.88 -   119.67    118.55
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
    Friday 1941-08-15   124.66 -   125.97    124.90
    Monday 1941-08-18   125.20 -   125.96    125.62
   Tuesday 1941-08-19   125.20 -   125.91    125.57
****** Triangular factor:     0.1113%
  Thursday 1941-09-25   125.33 -   127.71    126.38
    Friday 1941-09-26   125.55 -   126.68    125.81
    Monday 1941-09-29   125.76 -   126.54    126.05
****** Triangular factor:     0.0736%
  Thursday 1942-07-09   107.60 -   109.26    108.75
    Friday 1942-07-10   107.68 -   108.99    108.66
    Monday 1942-07-13   107.79 -   108.69    108.22
****** Triangular factor:     0.0154%
 Wednesday 1943-03-17   128.86 -   130.22    129.49
  Thursday 1943-03-18   129.07 -   130.00    129.66
    Friday 1943-03-19   129.09 -   129.95    129.25
****** Triangular factor:     0.0220%
   Tuesday 1943-03-30   135.52 -   137.20    136.82
 Wednesday 1943-03-31   135.86 -   137.07    136.57
  Thursday 1943-04-01   135.94 -   137.04    136.56
****** Triangular factor:     0.0288%
 Wednesday 1946-04-17   206.97 -   209.36    207.93
  Thursday 1946-04-18   207.27 -   209.10    208.31
    Monday 1946-04-22   207.33 -   208.94    207.99
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
 Wednesday 1952-08-20   273.41 -   275.62    274.35
  Thursday 1952-08-21   273.43 -   275.24    274.45
    Friday 1952-08-22   273.74 -   275.24    274.43
****** Triangular factor:     0.0501%
 Wednesday 1952-11-19   277.78 -   281.16    280.05
  Thursday 1952-11-20   278.02 -   280.80    279.50
    Friday 1952-11-21   278.16 -   280.31    279.32
****** Triangular factor:     0.0365%
    Friday 1955-02-18   409.07 -   414.62    411.63
    Monday 1955-02-21   409.57 -   414.21    411.28
 Wednesday 1955-02-23   409.72 -   413.04    411.48
****** Triangular factor:     0.0166%
 Wednesday 1956-10-03   476.97 -   484.06    482.04
  Thursday 1956-10-04   478.37 -   483.98    481.24
    Friday 1956-10-05   478.86 -   483.62    482.39
****** Triangular factor:     0.0062%
  Thursday 1956-11-08   483.21 -   491.32    488.72
    Friday 1956-11-09   483.57 -   490.50    485.35
    Monday 1956-11-12   483.60 -   488.91    487.05
****** Triangular factor:     0.0060%
   Tuesday 1959-12-08   665.07 -   679.36    675.39
 Wednesday 1959-12-09   668.76 -   678.03    671.26
  Thursday 1959-12-10   668.80 -   676.96    672.74
****** Triangular factor:     0.0830%
  Thursday 1962-05-17   644.01 -   654.33    649.79
    Friday 1962-05-18   644.55 -   653.63    650.70
    Monday 1962-05-21   645.09 -   652.14    648.59
****** Triangular factor:     0.3661%
 Wednesday 1962-10-24   549.65 -   578.52    576.68
  Thursday 1962-10-25   562.79 -   575.84    570.86
    Friday 1962-10-26   564.88 -   573.54    569.02
****** Triangular factor:     0.0363%
    Monday 1963-07-22   684.41 -   696.16    688.74
   Tuesday 1963-07-23   685.74 -   694.83    687.84
 Wednesday 1963-07-24   685.99 -   693.41    690.88
****** Triangular factor:     0.0322%
  Thursday 1968-10-24   949.34 -   967.37    956.68
    Friday 1968-10-25   950.96 -   966.81    961.28
    Monday 1968-10-28   951.45 -   966.50    957.73
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
  Thursday 1969-02-06   939.46 -   954.07    946.67
    Friday 1969-02-07   940.39 -   954.00    947.85
   Tuesday 1969-02-11   941.94 -   954.00    948.97
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
    Friday 1969-02-07   940.39 -   954.00    947.85
   Tuesday 1969-02-11   941.94 -   954.00    948.97
 Wednesday 1969-02-12   942.81 -   954.00    949.09
****** Triangular factor:     0.1774%
  Thursday 1970-07-23   718.44 -   737.88    732.68
    Friday 1970-07-24   722.96 -   736.58    730.22
    Monday 1970-07-27   724.53 -   735.01    730.08
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
 Wednesday 1971-03-31   898.33 -   910.98    904.37
  Thursday 1971-04-01   898.75 -   910.06    903.88
    Friday 1971-04-02   898.96 -   910.06    903.04
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
   Tuesday 1971-09-07   909.75 -   925.67    916.47
 Wednesday 1971-09-08   911.87 -   925.67    920.93
  Thursday 1971-09-09   912.38 -   925.23    915.89
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
 Wednesday 1977-01-05   974.07 -   990.69    978.06
  Thursday 1977-01-06   974.07 -   989.03    979.89
    Friday 1977-01-07   975.40 -   987.03    983.13
****** Triangular factor:     0.1118%
 Wednesday 1978-01-11   771.74 -   785.95    775.90
  Thursday 1978-01-12   772.78 -   785.00    778.15
    Friday 1978-01-13   773.65 -   784.04    775.73
****** Triangular factor:     0.0110%
  Thursday 1979-05-31   815.14 -   827.01    822.33
    Friday 1979-06-01   817.74 -   826.14    821.21
    Monday 1979-06-04   817.83 -   825.36    821.90
****** Triangular factor:     0.0400%
 Wednesday 1979-10-10   826.54 -   855.03    849.32
  Thursday 1979-10-11   834.98 -   854.69    844.62
    Friday 1979-10-12   835.67 -   852.90    838.99
****** Triangular factor:     0.0181%
    Monday 1981-04-06   986.67 -  1004.59    994.24
   Tuesday 1981-04-07   987.03 -  1004.41    992.89
 Wednesday 1981-04-08   987.84 -  1000.45    993.43
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
 Wednesday 1982-12-01  1025.57 -  1055.00   1031.09
  Thursday 1982-12-02  1027.04 -  1047.37   1033.11
    Friday 1982-12-03  1027.04 -  1046.82   1031.36
****** Triangular factor:     0.1026%
    Friday 1983-05-06  1217.69 -  1244.49   1232.59
    Monday 1983-05-09  1219.04 -  1241.29   1228.23
   Tuesday 1983-05-10  1220.49 -  1240.03   1229.68
****** Triangular factor:     0.0169%
 Wednesday 1983-09-07  1229.27 -  1253.96   1244.11
  Thursday 1983-09-08  1232.83 -  1252.95   1246.14
    Friday 1983-09-09  1233.33 -  1252.74   1239.74
****** Triangular factor:     0.1670%
   Tuesday 1983-11-22  1262.91 -  1287.80   1275.81
 Wednesday 1983-11-23  1265.04 -  1284.55   1275.61
    Friday 1983-11-25  1268.80 -  1282.22   1277.44
****** Triangular factor:     0.0333%
   Tuesday 1988-08-02  2112.20 -  2151.85   2131.22
 Wednesday 1988-08-03  2115.40 -  2147.94   2134.07
  Thursday 1988-08-04  2117.71 -  2147.23   2126.60
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
    Monday 1989-06-12  2484.70 -  2528.17   2518.84
   Tuesday 1989-06-13  2484.70 -  2520.71   2503.54
 Wednesday 1989-06-14  2486.01 -  2520.71   2503.36
****** Triangular factor:     0.0139%
   Tuesday 1989-08-29  2704.98 -  2757.60   2726.63
 Wednesday 1989-08-30  2705.36 -  2753.61   2728.15
  Thursday 1989-08-31  2717.90 -  2744.68   2737.27
****** Triangular factor:     0.0390%
    Monday 1989-10-16  2496.93 -  2667.42   2657.38
   Tuesday 1989-10-17  2588.73 -  2665.37   2638.73
 Wednesday 1989-10-18  2610.66 -  2664.34   2643.65
****** Triangular factor:     0.0397%
   Tuesday 1989-12-19  2658.70 -  2720.14   2695.61
 Wednesday 1989-12-20  2667.02 -  2719.07   2687.93
  Thursday 1989-12-21  2671.72 -  2714.16   2691.13
****** Triangular factor:     0.0587%
    Friday 1990-10-19  2453.47 -  2536.88   2520.79
    Monday 1990-10-22  2476.73 -  2535.40   2516.09
   Tuesday 1990-10-23  2480.20 -  2527.97   2494.06
****** Triangular factor:     0.0979%
 Wednesday 1992-09-16  3288.95 -  3353.52   3319.21
  Thursday 1992-09-17  3292.20 -  3347.04   3315.70
    Friday 1992-09-18  3297.87 -  3340.56   3327.05
****** Triangular factor:     0.0613%
    Monday 1993-10-18  3595.92 -  3675.84   3642.31
   Tuesday 1993-10-19  3601.79 -  3669.97   3635.32
 Wednesday 1993-10-20  3611.85 -  3667.74   3645.10
****** Triangular factor:     0.0000%
    Friday 1994-03-18  3838.65 -  3911.78   3895.65
    Monday 1994-03-21  3838.65 -  3898.25   3864.85
   Tuesday 1994-03-22  3840.66 -  3896.23   3862.55
****** Triangular factor:     0.1823%
 Wednesday 1995-07-19  4530.26 -  4698.60   4628.87
  Thursday 1995-07-20  4578.51 -  4684.52   4641.55
    Friday 1995-07-21  4596.82 -  4676.06   4641.55
****** Triangular factor:     0.1161%
    Friday 1997-08-01  8062.11 -  8287.65   8194.04
    Monday 1997-08-04  8097.65 -  8261.40   8198.45
   Tuesday 1997-08-05  8129.93 -  8251.88   8187.54
****** Triangular factor:     0.0426%
 Wednesday 1999-04-14 10196.87 - 10692.49  10411.66
  Thursday 1999-04-15 10201.31 - 10673.90  10462.72
    Friday 1999-04-16 10299.55 - 10632.90  10493.89
****** Triangular factor:     0.0375%
  Thursday 1999-04-22 10517.85 - 10896.42  10727.18
    Friday 1999-04-23 10530.45 - 10858.34  10689.67
    Monday 1999-04-26 10540.47 - 10854.33  10718.59
****** Triangular factor:     0.2081%
   Tuesday 2000-04-04 10682.72 - 11531.24  11164.84
 Wednesday 2000-04-05 10894.00 - 11326.79  11033.92
  Thursday 2000-04-06 10921.07 - 11303.83  11114.27
****** Triangular factor:     0.2089%
    Friday 2001-06-29 10374.32 - 10729.18  10502.40
    Monday 2001-07-02 10397.20 - 10707.24  10593.72
   Tuesday 2001-07-03 10479.99 - 10648.00  10571.11
****** Triangular factor:     0.0172%
   Tuesday 2002-02-05  9553.96 -  9842.77   9685.43
 Wednesday 2002-02-06  9558.18 -  9801.33   9653.39
  Thursday 2002-02-07  9562.12 -  9799.67   9625.44
****** Triangular factor:     0.0265%
    Monday 2002-03-04 10313.01 - 10656.50  10586.82
   Tuesday 2002-03-05 10349.90 - 10639.96  10433.41
 Wednesday 2002-03-06 10393.84 - 10637.19  10574.29
****** Triangular factor:     0.0495%
 Wednesday 2005-12-21 10776.01 - 10933.70  10833.73
  Thursday 2005-12-22 10785.93 - 10928.34  10889.44
    Friday 2005-12-23 10869.98 - 10904.40  10883.27
****** Triangular factor:     0.0732%
  Thursday 2006-11-09 12039.59 - 12236.10  12103.30
    Friday 2006-11-10 12074.01 - 12173.08  12108.43
    Monday 2006-11-13 12084.89 - 12164.22  12131.88
****** Triangular factor:     0.0051%
  Thursday 2007-02-01 12563.85 - 12741.30  12673.68
    Friday 2007-02-02 12582.99 - 12740.65  12653.49
    Monday 2007-02-05 12630.50 - 12681.06  12661.75
****** Triangular factor:     0.1313%
    Friday 2007-08-17 12847.24 - 13289.70  13079.08
    Monday 2007-08-20 12938.77 - 13245.80  13121.35
   Tuesday 2007-08-21 12975.68 - 13228.57  13090.86

****** Sorted list of triangular factors:
         1     0.3661%  Wednesday 1962-10-24
         2     0.2115%     Monday 1937-06-14
         3     0.2089%     Friday 2001-06-29
         4     0.2081%    Tuesday 2000-04-04
         5     0.1823%  Wednesday 1995-07-19
         6     0.1774%   Thursday 1970-07-23
         7     0.1670%    Tuesday 1983-11-22
         8     0.1513%     Friday 1934-10-26
         9     0.1448%    Tuesday 1933-08-29
        10     0.1313%     Friday 2007-08-17
        11     0.1161%     Friday 1997-08-01
        12     0.1118%  Wednesday 1978-01-11
        13     0.1113%   Thursday 1941-09-25
        14     0.1026%     Friday 1983-05-06
        15     0.0979%  Wednesday 1992-09-16
        16     0.0830%   Thursday 1962-05-17
        17     0.0736%   Thursday 1942-07-09
        18     0.0732%   Thursday 2006-11-09
        19     0.0613%     Monday 1993-10-18
        20     0.0594%     Friday 1931-05-08
        21     0.0587%     Friday 1990-10-19
        22     0.0501%  Wednesday 1952-11-19
        23     0.0495%  Wednesday 2005-12-21
        24     0.0426%  Wednesday 1999-04-14
        25     0.0400%  Wednesday 1979-10-10
        26     0.0397%    Tuesday 1989-12-19
        27     0.0390%     Monday 1989-10-16
        28     0.0375%   Thursday 1999-04-22
        29     0.0365%     Friday 1955-02-18
        30     0.0363%     Monday 1963-07-22
        31     0.0333%    Tuesday 1988-08-02
        32     0.0322%   Thursday 1968-10-24
        33     0.0288%  Wednesday 1946-04-17
        34     0.0265%     Monday 2002-03-04
        35     0.0253%    Tuesday 1938-05-10
        36     0.0220%    Tuesday 1943-03-30
        37     0.0181%     Monday 1981-04-06
        38     0.0172%    Tuesday 2002-02-05
        39     0.0169%  Wednesday 1983-09-07
        40     0.0166%  Wednesday 1956-10-03
        41     0.0154%  Wednesday 1943-03-17
        42     0.0139%    Tuesday 1989-08-29
        43     0.0113%  Wednesday 1937-07-07
        44     0.0110%   Thursday 1979-05-31
        45     0.0110%     Monday 1936-11-23
        46     0.0062%   Thursday 1956-11-08
        47     0.0060%    Tuesday 1959-12-08
        48     0.0051%   Thursday 2007-02-01
        49     0.0000%  Wednesday 1982-12-01
        50     0.0000%  Wednesday 1977-01-05
        51     0.0000%  Wednesday 1971-03-31
        52     0.0000%  Wednesday 1952-08-20
        53     0.0000%   Thursday 1969-02-06
        54     0.0000%    Tuesday 1971-09-07
        55     0.0000%     Monday 1989-06-12
        56     0.0000%     Monday 1929-03-11
        57     0.0000%     Friday 1994-03-18
        58     0.0000%     Friday 1969-02-07
        59     0.0000%     Friday 1941-08-15
        60     0.0000%     Friday 1929-03-08
Note the sorted list of triangular factors at the end. The 20
highest values are as follows:

Code:
****** Sorted list of triangular factors:
         1     0.3661%  Wednesday 1962-10-24
         2     0.2115%     Monday 1937-06-14
         3     0.2089%     Friday 2001-06-29
         4     0.2081%    Tuesday 2000-04-04
         5     0.1823%  Wednesday 1995-07-19
         6     0.1774%   Thursday 1970-07-23
         7     0.1670%    Tuesday 1983-11-22
         8     0.1513%     Friday 1934-10-26
         9     0.1448%    Tuesday 1933-08-29
        10     0.1313%     Friday 2007-08-17
        11     0.1161%     Friday 1997-08-01
        12     0.1118%  Wednesday 1978-01-11
        13     0.1113%   Thursday 1941-09-25
        14     0.1026%     Friday 1983-05-06
        15     0.0979%  Wednesday 1992-09-16
        16     0.0830%   Thursday 1962-05-17
        17     0.0736%   Thursday 1942-07-09
        18     0.0732%   Thursday 2006-11-09
        19     0.0613%     Monday 1993-10-18
        20     0.0594%     Friday 1931-05-08
So the "flag" that began on 8/17/2007 is very high on the list (#10),
as you expected, but there are even steeper flags above it on the
list.

Perhaps you can take a look at my Dow Jones historical page for a few
of these highest values, and tell me if there's any further pattern
that you can discern.

** Dow Jones Historical Page
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.i.djia


Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#2489 at 09-06-2007 02:10 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
09-06-2007, 02:10 PM #2489
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

John, are you aware that the most significant single day stock market crash occurred 57 years after the Panic of 1857? I haven't seen you mention it on your site when talking about the rule of 57/58 years, although I could be mistaken. The war clearly played a major role, but still...







Post#2490 at 09-06-2007 05:40 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
---
09-06-2007, 05:40 PM #2490
Join Date
Aug 2007
Posts
33

For traders, the blow off move in gold should be tomorrow or Monday. Top at 710-715, but exit all trading positions half at 701 and half at 706, with protective stops moved to 695 when 701 is touched. This is conservative trading. The tops and bottoms belong to god. The old axiom of let the profits run is not a trading axiom because one does not trade for fun. Trades are rare. They're high probability. End of story. I'm just reading the gold chart as I know it.

For long term positions, all this gold action should mean nothing. Long is the side to be on. We are waiting for fiat to roll over and play the sick patient.







Post#2491 at 09-06-2007 06:06 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
---
09-06-2007, 06:06 PM #2491
Join Date
Aug 2007
Posts
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John, I'll respond to each of the top 10 dynamite triangles.


Your first one, in 1962. So, what happened subsequently? What was the ratio to the first bar? What was the time frame after the DT that the move occurred?

I must do something called "work" today, so with coffee in me, I'm ready now that it's afternoon to do some. So, tonite I'll look again.

But so far, that one in '62? That's batting 1000, ain't it? And I didn't recall ever seeing it before.

DT's are WMD's when the subsequent movements are sudden. We are still in the penumbra of that DT. The pump fake to the upside, in this case so far 2 failed rallies as of today, has diluted some of the energy. But we just need to be patient. There's lots going on in terms of energy being bandied about, 1 upside reversal, big time, and now, one downside reversal in a tiny trading range.

A key point for you and Michael is that reading charts has zero to do with the reality of the moment in terms of what external events are happening. Who cares what happened in '62. Kennedy? Nukes in Cuba? Doesn't matter. The chart pattern reflects the stress.

I'll attempt to explain all that you've identified.







Post#2492 at 09-06-2007 08:09 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
09-06-2007, 08:09 PM #2492
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Posts
3,018

Quote Originally Posted by GaudiaRay View Post
A key point for you and Michael
I really gotta change my handle.







Post#2493 at 09-06-2007 08:29 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
---
09-06-2007, 08:29 PM #2493
Join Date
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Your #2 took 2 weeks and pump fakes and it finally took off and rose what appears to be 4X-plus the first bar. I consider 3X to be highest probability.

This DT "worked". It moved in the direction of the first attempted breakouts.
I've no idea what was happening in the news at that time.

If I were in, I'd be out at 3X on the majority of that trade. Money beyond what's mathematically probable is god's money.







Post#2494 at 09-06-2007 08:38 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-06-2007, 08:38 PM #2494
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Your #3, June 2001.

Do you know the low for July 10, 2001? The goal in the move was a minimum of 1X, down to 10025. The market closed on that day at 10175.

The negative to the event is that it followed closely in time to a prior DT. The prior DT was still fresh in the minds of the traders. I've already said earlier that DT's that repeat are not reliable like the DT seemingly out of the blue.

It appears that DT trade failed, at first glance. I don't understand it. I'm not copping out. I just don't understand it. and will return to it later.







Post#2495 at 09-07-2007 09:42 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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09-07-2007, 09:42 AM #2495
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Wow! 10 minutes in and the Dow is down 160!







Post#2496 at 09-07-2007 10:39 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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09-07-2007, 10:39 AM #2496
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Wow! 10 minutes in and the Dow is down 160!
The Dow just went briefly below -200. This is very anxious "mild panic"
behavior.

What's been happening a lot in recent weeks is that the market goes up
and down all day, but then settles into a final position during the final
hour, between 3-4 pm. During that hour, the market will either rally and
shoot up, or will go down and consolidate a major "tumble."

John







Post#2497 at 09-07-2007 03:21 PM by GaudiaRay [at joined Aug 2007 #posts 33]
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09-07-2007, 03:21 PM #2497
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Not all DT's "work", but those that do are whoppers.
The current DT is dissipating its energy as time and larger swing days release the emotional anxiety.

The very large attempted reversal in the DJIA, based on its interday low of 2+ weeks ago is yet in play and would be the failure of the market if it were penetrated by even 100 points down.

When I say "failure", I mean a drop of 2500 points very quickly, like 20% of the market value vanishing in a few days.

----------
Separately, "nice call" I must say re: the exit point in spot gold today, closing out the trade of 48 hours, with a profit that would have been around 80%. Time to take a break for a big glass of coca cola.







Post#2498 at 09-08-2007 01:33 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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09-08-2007, 01:33 PM #2498
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Fixing the Evaluation Algorithm

I actually like the Crisis War Evaluation Algorithm. It serves to allow for ease of evaluating potential crises without a detailed generational analysis (which would look at certain individuals, a time consuming process). The algorithm goes like this:

  • If the war is very significant, it is probably a crisis war. If it is not significant than it cannot be a crisis war.
  • If the war has high genocidal violence, it must be a crisis war. If the war does not have high genocidal violence, it probably isn't a crisis war.
  • If the war is highly politicized, it cannot be a crisis war. If the war has non-political pursuits, it probably is a crisis war.


I think this is great since it gets to the core of the differences between a crisis war and non-crisis war. The problem lies in determining the significance, genocidal violence, and politicization. We have a pretty objective list, but getting there involves more subjective methods.

I think a combination of the old plus and minus method that would go into a certain category -- such as significance, would work very well. At the very least, it is worth a shot.

As it turns out, not all crises contain your standard definition of a crisis war. If the evaluation algorithm could be expanded to allow for the inclusion of all crises or nearly all crises (I doubt its possible to use an algorithm like this to determine if Iceland had a crisis in World War Two). This would mean civil wars and guerrilla wars, as well as times of high instability with radical change.

So, with that, I'll propose a first draft. Keep in mind that some of these questions may not be totally applicable to a situation. It's hard to commit genocide against a foreign power when you are on the defensive the whole time! Also, remember context. For America, World War One will certainly be remembered for centuries, but it will be remembered by name only.

What makes a time period significant?

+ sign indicates significance

  • Was the nation's foreign policy greatly changed for decades to come (+), or did the previous foreign policy remain (-)?
  • Was the nation's economic policy greatly changed for decades to come (+), or did the previous policy remain (-)?
  • Did the war have a decisive conclusion (+), or was there a stalemate (-)?
  • Is/Will the war be remembered for centuries (+), or will it be forgotten (-)?
  • Was there a major governmental change (+)?
  • Was a historically important or major city captured (+)?
  • Was there a major social change (I'm thinking of stuff like the end of slavery or serfdom) as a result of the time period (+)?
  • Did the nation pursue punitive punishments against the opposition (-)?


The dividing line is +1?

How do we determine the intensity, willpower, and energy?

+ sign indicates high energy

  • Was there a pursued desire for ethnic cleansing without much national opposition (++)?
  • Was there a sustained program of mass murders, mass rapes, massacres, torture, destruction of entire towns (with inhabitants), forced relocation of huge populations of people - sustained over a period of months (a single battle doesn't count) (++)?
  • Were civilians targeted without much national opposition (++), or did the nation go out of its way to protect civilians (--)?
  • Is there a well-defined a clear climax as described by Strauss and Howe (++), or not (-)?
  • Was there a "D-Day" type mass assault, a willingness to sacrifice one's own forces for victory (+), or not (-)?
  • Was there a refusal to capitulate, a willingness to fight to the death, even when defeat is almost certain (+), or was there an early capitulation (-)?
  • Were the goals pursued very enthusiastically (+), or somewhat passively (-)?
  • Was there a massive revolt that spiraled out of control (+)?
  • Was there a massive surprise attack on the enemy (+)?
  • Was there a scorched earth policy to be used on enemy territory (+)?
  • Did the nation perpetuate devastation on the enemy (+)?


Dividing line +3?

How do we determine political considerations?

+ sign indicates high politicization

  • Did the war have sustained high public support when things went wrong (--), or was it unpopular (+)?
  • If unpopular, was there simply political controversy (+), as opposed to violent conflict (--)?
  • Were there political pauses (+), or were such pauses unthinkable (-)?
  • Was the cause of the conflict based on old fault lines (-), or was it a relatively new issue (+)?
  • If a civil war, was it between political parties (+), or was it between ethnic or religious groups (-)?
  • Was the cause of the war exogenous (+)?
  • Was there a use of reasonable triggering political objectives for initial mobilization or termination (+)?
  • Was initiation part of a power-grab (+)?


Dividing line 0?

Now, once one has determined if the war was significant, pursued energetically, or politicized, plug it back into the algorithm at the top.

Let me know what you think! This is a first draft, and there is certainly more to add.
Last edited by Matt1989; 09-08-2007 at 03:50 PM.







Post#2499 at 09-08-2007 02:59 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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09-08-2007, 02:59 PM #2499
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Excellent! And this makes it extremely plain that (at least so far) Iraq is not a Crisis War.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#2500 at 09-08-2007 03:10 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Excellent! And this makes it extremely plain that (at least so far) Iraq is not a Crisis War.
In Iraq, it seems like a very violent 2T akin to Algeria's Civil War in the 1990s. And for the U.S. it is being fought classically 3T, with high enthusiasm but low patience going in, with no real conclusion in sight, with no obvious options apparent, and with plenty of shrill rhetoric but little real political will to do anything one way or the other. It's sad but true.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

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